Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: JimD on May 13, 2014, 04:38:18 PM

Title: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 13, 2014, 04:38:18 PM
Seems like a good topic to have as we are always talking about it and it certainly is very important  To start...

Mexico has finally ended their unusual policy of not allowing international oil/gas companies into the country.  This means that there will be a huge surge in that direction - especially from the US.  Expect a big boom in production within a couple of years that resembles the fracking boom in the US.

Quote
"No Turning Back:" Mexico's Looming Fracking and Offshore Oil and Gas Bonanza

After generations of state control, Mexico’s vast oil and gas reserves will soon open for business to the international market.

In December 2013, Mexico’s Congress voted to break up the longstanding monopoly held by the state-owned oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos — commonly called Pemex — and to open the nation’s oil and gas reserves to foreign companies.

The constitutional reforms appear likely to kickstart a historic hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and deepwater offshore oil and gas drilling bonanza off the Gulf of Mexico.....

...Proponents for Mexico’s energy reforms envision a gold rush. They argue the constitutional amendments and accompanying secondary legislation still up for debate in the Mexican legislature could add as much as $35 billion in outside investment into the national coffers.

Pemex says $25 to $60 billion could come its way as a result of joint ventures it can now sign with international oil and gas companies,
......

If the reforms bring about the production spike hoped for by Pemex and Mexican officials, the country could be among the world’s oil-producing giants by 2025.

Mexico’s Reserves: Where and How Big?

Mexico sits on nearly 14 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves, according to Pemex. The Oil and Gas Journal pegged it at 10.2 billion barrels at the end of 2011. But that’s just what they know they have.

The country’s unexplored oil reserve potential is second only to the Arctic Circle, according to Bloomberg and others reporting on the reforms.

Pemex estimates, as reported by Bloomberg, that deep-water Gulf of Mexico prospects could be as large as 26.6 billion barrels of oil. Onshore, there are potentially 60 billion barrels yet untapped.
...

As part of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 (Section 303), President Barack Obama signed off on U.S.-Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement in December 2013, which “establishes a framework for U.S. offshore oil and gas companies and [Pemex] to jointly develop transboundary reservoirs.”

The bill lifts the floodgates for industry to tap into more than 1.6 million acres of offshore oil and gas.
...

Pemex estimates there could be more than 300 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas in the Burgos. And the U.S. Congressional Research Service pointed out in a January 2014 report that Mexico may have the fifth largest tight oil reserves and fourth largest tight gas reserves in the world.

This is largely due to the portion of the Eagle Ford formation that stretches south of the border.
....

Once this gets rolling it will be almost unstoppable.  Huge investments, big rise in wealth, lots of jobs, political corruption, economic growth.....

An interesting side effect is that once it is up and running it will put downward pressure on natural gas prices and add to the adverse effect that has on nuclear and renewable power generation.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/05/12/no-turning-back-mexico-looming-fracking-and-offshore-oil-and-gas-bonanza (http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/05/12/no-turning-back-mexico-looming-fracking-and-offshore-oil-and-gas-bonanza)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: icefest on May 13, 2014, 04:56:24 PM
Lovely, add to that mix the decrease in regulatory burden and you'll have another Exxon Valdez or Deepwater Horizon again soon.

I know my fellow Pappenheims
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 13, 2014, 06:42:57 PM
It is not hard to understand why, but North America sure seems to be heading pell mell down the path of pushing fossil fuels to their max limit (in terms of maxing production I mean).  Given the combined populations of some 465 million and growing fast that is saying something about their long term effect. 

Growth in Mexican carbon emissions due to a rapidly expanding economy could overwhelm any lowering of carbon emissions from the EU all by their selves.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 19, 2014, 05:52:06 PM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f7351b0e-dcf1-11e3-b73c-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz328G3gND5 (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f7351b0e-dcf1-11e3-b73c-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz328G3gND5)

Quote
As windfalls go, America’s natural gas boom verges on the biblical. Economists talk of a “game changer”. Producers foresee a US manufacturing renaissance. Greens celebrate the death of King Coal. And strategists talk about a geopolitical trump card – not least in the west’s game of poker with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Hydraulic fracturing has opened up a supply of cheap and relatively clean gas for decades to come. At a time when the US is facing a set of otherwise bleak trends, it is as close as you get to a godsend.

That, at least, is the assumption. But what if it is wrong? According to Garten Rothkopf, an international advisory firm, the US is set to exhaust its supply of “economically recoverable” natural gas supplies by 2030. That estimate is based solely on existing projects,
...Long before 2030, however, US producers will have been pushed into the more expensive shale formations.

Quote
Next month President Barack Obama’s administration will issue a new set of emissions rules that are likely to put most existing US coal-fired power plants out of business. Coal was always the largest source of US electricity. Gas has now overtaken it.

America has likewise turned away from nuclear power.
...

Likewise, Mr Obama set great store in the scaling up of alternative energy supplies such as wind and solar. But in each case the numbers have disappointed. Just 5 per cent of US power comes from non-hydroelectric renewables. In its current mood, Congress looks unlikely to approve the renewal of alternative energy tax credits, which will further limit their potential.....
\

Quote
Under US utility regulations, suppliers have to choose the cheapest form of energy. Today that is gas. If gas prices start to rise, producers will be stuck with a single energy source.

The same applies to the petrochemicals sector and other manufacturers. Twenty and 30-year investments are being made on the assumption that US gas prices will remain a third or so of levels elsewhere in the world. Many projects will become uneconomic if that changes.

The risk of supply shocks is also underestimated....

Moreover, the US gas sector needs $300bn to upgrade its pipeline network.....

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 19, 2014, 05:55:10 PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10839701/China-steps-up-speed-of-oil-stockpiling-as-tensions-mount-in-Asia.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10839701/China-steps-up-speed-of-oil-stockpiling-as-tensions-mount-in-Asia.html)

Quote
Beijing has ordered an "unprecedented" build up of oil reserves as West prepares for possible oil sanctions against Russia. ...


China is stockpiling oil for its strategic petroleum reserve at a record pace, intervening on a scale large enough to send a powerful pulse through the world crude market.


The move comes as tensions mount in the South China Sea, and the West prepares possible oil sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Analysts believe China is quietly building up buffers against a possible spike in oil prices or disruptions in supply.


The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report that China imported 6.81m barrels a day in April, an all-time high.


Michael Lewis, head of commodities at Deutsche Bank, said Chinese officials at Beijing's Strategic Reserve Bureau are playing the oil market tactically, or “buying the dips” in trader parlance. They add to stocks whenever Brent crude prices fall to key support lines, as occurred earlier this Spring. This is currently around $105.

“It's is very similar to what they have been doing with copper. Whenever it drops below $7,000 (a tonne), they see it as a buying opportunity. They do the same with agricultural commodities,” he said.

China is putting a floor of sorts underneath the global oil market, calling into question predictions by the big oil trading banks that prices will deflate this year as more crude comes on stream from Libya, Iraq, and Iran, and as the US keeps adding supply shale.

The strategic buying could go on for a long time since China is rapidly expanding its reserve capacity from 160m barrels to 500m by 2020, with sites scattered across the country.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 22, 2014, 03:07:04 PM
Write-down of two-thirds of US shale oil explodes fracking myth
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/22/two-thirds-write-down-us-shale-oil-gas-explodes-fracking-myth (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/22/two-thirds-write-down-us-shale-oil-gas-explodes-fracking-myth)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 22, 2014, 03:51:03 PM
Laurent

Editing of the link is needed.

Be careful if you are not used to reading about oil & gas projections and such.  Most of what is going on with places like CA which are not yet in real production is the standard business hype used in the oil/gas industry to generate publicity and investors, who can then be fleeced for their money.

There is really nothing much new in this article to those who follow the data.  It just means that some investors who did not do their due diligence have been taken to the clears again.  Those in the oil fields are not confused about what can be accomplished in terms of production.

In other words there is not really a big change in store that was not already understood within the industry.  This type of production is bottom of the barrel stuff and has a much lower EROEI than in the past.  It is just another bump on the slow drop in numbers. There is no great surge in production to be expected.  Just enough to keep us on a plateau for now, but at a high cost.  Globally there is absolutely a LOT of shale oil and gas to be exploited - should we be stupid enough to do so..... 

But the bottom line is that there is no way out for civilization by continuing use of fossil fuels.  Just as there is way out with any form of BAU.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on May 22, 2014, 07:15:46 PM
Good news for Californians that would rather drink or grow food with whatever water is available.


Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 22, 2014, 09:07:27 PM
Good news for Californians that would rather drink or grow food with whatever water is available.


Terry

In that order, I would imagine.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 22, 2014, 09:27:39 PM
oups editing done, thanks.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 23, 2014, 03:49:56 PM
Fracking: shock and awe will not win the battle of Britain
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/may/23/fracking-shock-and-awe-will-not-win-the-battle-of-britain (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/may/23/fracking-shock-and-awe-will-not-win-the-battle-of-britain)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 27, 2014, 05:52:37 PM
Russia joins global dash for shale in policy volte-face

Officials at the Kremlin are no longer dismissing shale's promise as a mirage

Quote
Russia is launching a strategic drive to unlock its shale oil wealth as crude output stagnates and reserves run low in the West Siberian fields, aiming to replicate America's technology leap in a near total reversal of policy.


The Kremlin has launched an "action plan" to master fracking methods and lure investors into the Bazhenov prospective, a shale basin the size of France to the east of the Urals. Officials are no longer dismissing shale's promise as a mirage. "We are clearing away the administrative barriers to exploration. This is the urgent challenge we are now facing," said Kirill Molodtsov, the deputy energy minister.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10855891/Russia-joins-global-dash-for-shale-in-policy-volte-face.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10855891/Russia-joins-global-dash-for-shale-in-policy-volte-face.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: ccgwebmaster on May 27, 2014, 06:27:18 PM
Russia joins global dash for shale in policy volte-face

Officials at the Kremlin are no longer dismissing shale's promise as a mirage

Ironic if true, as it's increasingly obvious that depletion rates and resource impacts (water) are both painfully high. It can't be much longer before peak oil really starts to bite... having done little more than nibble so far.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on June 01, 2014, 03:35:07 PM
The grinding destruction of Peak Oil continues.  Cheap supplies shrink, costs rise, prices rise, economic trouble comes.  This is part of the slow early effects of collapse. 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/joe-costello-oil-industry-running-major-trouble.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/joe-costello-oil-industry-running-major-trouble.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 01, 2014, 03:57:27 PM
The grinding destruction of Peak Oil continues.  Cheap supplies shrink, costs rise, prices rise, economic trouble comes.  This is part of the slow early effects of collapse. 

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/joe-costello-oil-industry-running-major-trouble.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/06/joe-costello-oil-industry-running-major-trouble.html)

Thank you for this link. This article addresses the fundamental nature of the behavior of capitalism with regards to any market, business or industry. Growth in oil production is driven by a simple feedback mechanism. How much of the current profit from sales needs to be reinvested for further production. As this ratio approaches (1), no further investment will be made and a particular industry will suffer irreversible decline.

There is one caveat. If demand for a particular product such as oil has very low marginal rates of substitution (this means that moving to an alternate as prices rise is difficult) then the  market will continue to demand the product even in the face of dramatic increases in price. The wild fluctuations in the price of a barrel of oil indicates  that this is the case. The world cannot quickly move away from oil to other sources of energy with regards to transportation. What this  means is that, as prices rise, new and ever more exotic sources of oil become feasible for exploitation. I suspect that this will be the case for some time.

The driving force for continued exploitation of oil is demand. If demand were to drop (significant movement away from oil in the transportation industry) oil prices would drop precipitously and shale and tar sands ( any other exotic source, actually, including deep sea drilling) could become a losing proposition, perhaps permanently.

Consumers are in the drivers seat, literally and figuratively. Stop consuming products made from oil (gas, plastics, synthetic fibres etc.) and the rationale for the Keystone Pipeline and other investments would disappear. We focus on the investment required to extract exotic sources of oil like shale but this is actually a small part of the total cost. This stuff is more expensive to transport and more expensive to refine.

This behavior of capitalism is my one major source of hope regarding AGW. With regards to "supply and demand" it is the demand that shapes our economic reality. If consumers demand something, there will always be a company that supplies it for a profit. If demand stops or drops dramatically, companies will exit these markets.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2014, 08:25:09 PM
SH,
re not using petro-based plastics:  I was pleased to see the discussion of plastics made from air and greenhouse gasses in the Better Tomorrows thread....

And on a different topic:
The city of Vancouver wants climate change (upstream and downstream) to be considered in the decision about twinning a pipeline to move more tar sands oil.  Although the industry will fight it, I can only see this consideration becoming a part of more and more decisions.
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/trans-mountain-challenges-vancouver-bid-to-include-climate-change-discussion-in-hearings/article18861748/?service=mobile (http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/trans-mountain-challenges-vancouver-bid-to-include-climate-change-discussion-in-hearings/article18861748/?service=mobile)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on June 25, 2014, 12:43:55 PM
Fracking - you are not important
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2450429/fracking_you_are_not_important.html (http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2450429/fracking_you_are_not_important.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 25, 2014, 05:32:35 PM
SH,
re not using petro-based plastics:  I was pleased to see the discussion of plastics made from air and greenhouse gasses in the Better Tomorrows thread....

And on a different topic:
The city of Vancouver wants climate change (upstream and downstream) to be considered in the decision about twinning a pipeline to move more tar sands oil.  Although the industry will fight it, I can only see this consideration becoming a part of more and more decisions.
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/trans-mountain-challenges-vancouver-bid-to-include-climate-change-discussion-in-hearings/article18861748/?service=mobile (http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/trans-mountain-challenges-vancouver-bid-to-include-climate-change-discussion-in-hearings/article18861748/?service=mobile)

I certainly agree that, as more and more citizens become aware of the awful impacts of global warming and become politically active around these issues, we will see environmental impacts influence decisions such as this one. Unfortunately, absent a reduction in demand for oil based products, industry will continue to find a way to bring shale oil to market.

If we are to make real progress in our efforts to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, it is market considerations that will drive these results. Certainly, our political institutions can shape these markets but this will be more in the areas of capital investment, funds for research into alternatives for transportation and energy generation, raising the costs for fossil  fuels in the form of very high carbon taxes, providing accelerated capital depreciation for new investment. Each of these, the last two in particular, will alter the the profits and costs of continued investments and tilt the markets to favor renewables. Efforts to do this are ongoing but because industries whose future depends on business as usual will fight these, progress will be slow.

The most powerful and immediate results can only come from the demand side. If consumers continue to demand products, the source of which is fossil fuels,  industry will continue to supply them.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on July 04, 2014, 01:15:19 PM
Wastewater from energy extraction 'triggers US quake surge'
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28128772 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28128772)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on July 05, 2014, 08:37:53 AM
U.S. Seen as Biggest Oil Producer After Overtaking Saudi Arabia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-04/u-s-seen-as-biggest-oil-producer-after-overtaking-saudi.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 05, 2014, 03:31:25 PM
Add gasification of coal to the mix, huge growth of this in China:

"Gasifying coal to produce chemicals emits less carbon dioxide than does burning coal as fuel, but the process still ejects more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than using natural gas would produce, says Eric Larson, a research engineer at the Princeton Environmental Institute."

"Some of the Western companies planning to jump into the sector in China, including Dow Chemical, are considering ways to offset or store the global-warming emissions their projects will generate. One possibility -- a process that would inject carbon dioxide deep underground for storage -- is a largely untested technology that is likely to be very expensive. In the meantime, gasification projects are getting speedily green-lighted in China without concern over emissions."

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB119906071914658457 (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB119906071914658457)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on July 10, 2014, 12:10:05 PM
Federal Government Still Spending Billions To Subsidize Fossil Fuels
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/09/fossil-fuel-subsidies_n_5572346.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/09/fossil-fuel-subsidies_n_5572346.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on July 16, 2014, 05:21:09 PM
Fracking: Vivienne Westwood on shale gas mining fears
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28317069 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28317069)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on August 29, 2014, 10:30:17 PM
Finally! A Candid Exposé of Chevron's Dirty Tricks
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-paz-y-mino/finally-a-candid-expose-o_b_5737142.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-paz-y-mino/finally-a-candid-expose-o_b_5737142.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 29, 2014, 10:40:44 PM
The grinding destruction of Peak Oil continues.  Cheap supplies shrink, costs rise, prices rise, economic trouble comes.  This is part of the slow early effects of collapse. 


I'm late to this one and perhaps someone covered it down thread but just in case...

You do realize that if firm signs of peak oil (OMG! We're about to run out of oil! type PO) did appear we could cut our personal use of oil extremely rapidly, don't you?

In three years or less, if really needed and required, car companies could produce nothing but EVs and PHEVs.  In five  years we would have cut personal transportation oil use by close to 50%.  (Half of all miles driven are with cars five years old or newer.)

That would almost certainly stretch our remaining supplies enough longer to convert most of the vehicles on the road to EVs and PHEV.  Some aggressive 'gas guzzler' buy back programs could speed things along.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on September 04, 2014, 05:15:47 PM
Oil Is Back! (in US)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-t-klare/oil-is-back_b_5765234.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-t-klare/oil-is-back_b_5765234.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

BP's Recklessness Caused Gulf Oil Spill, U.S. Judge Rules
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/bp-oil-spill_n_5765802.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/04/bp-oil-spill_n_5765802.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: icefest on September 05, 2014, 01:14:02 AM

In three years or less, if really needed and required, car companies could produce nothing but EVs and PHEVs.  In five  years we would have cut personal transportation oil use by close to 50%.  (Half of all miles driven are with cars five years old or newer.)


I doubt it.

Considering tesla gigafactory will take 3 years to build (and that's not including the extra mining required to supply materials) and even that, while doubling world  battery production, will not produce anywhere near enough batteries to supply all new cars.

Ten years is a more reasonable estimate.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 05, 2014, 01:51:14 AM
GM designed and started working on the PHEV Volt in 2006.  They started selling the Volt in 2008.

Now most companies have a PHEV or EV (or both) on the market or in development.  It takes only a few weeks to change over an assembly line to produce a new model.  Ford set up its three Focus assembly lines so that they could switch between diesel, hybrid or EV in a few days as demand required.

There's no doubt that within a couple of  years, if they were required to, manufacturers could make EVs and PHEVs.

Batteries.  Battery factories are built and brought into operation in two years.  Nissan did it in Tennessee.

The difficulty might be the material supply chain for batteries, but with 2-3 years lead time it should be possible to start refining a lot of lithium.

Consider that we would have many companies doing this in parallel.  Not sequentially.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on September 05, 2014, 05:38:54 PM
And then a dose of reality drops in.     

Quote
Considering all the talk about global warming, peak oil, carbon divestment, and renewable energy, you’d think that oil consumption in the United States would be on a downward path.  By now, we should certainly be witnessing real progress toward a post-petroleum economy.  As it happens, the opposite is occurring.  U.S. oil consumption is on an upward trajectory, climbing by 400,000 barrels per day in 2013 alone — and, if current trends persist, it should rise again both this year and next.

In other words, oil is back.  Big time.  Signs of its resurgence abound.  Despite what you may think, Americans, on average, are driving more miles every day, not fewer, filling ever more fuel tanks with ever more gasoline, and evidently feeling ever less bad about it.  The stigma of buying new gas-guzzling SUVs, for instance, seems to have vanished; according to CNN Money, nearly one out of three vehicles sold today is an SUV.  As a result of all this, America’s demand for oil grew more than China’s in 2013, the first time that’s happened since 1999.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/09/oil-back-global-warming-president-presides-drill-baby-drill-america.html#comment-2302871 (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/09/oil-back-global-warming-president-presides-drill-baby-drill-america.html#comment-2302871)

The reality on the ground is that electric vehicle production is not yet consequential and the rate of change is wholly insufficient to make a difference in the trend and coming impacts of climate change.  And there was never any prospect that converting the vehicle fleet to electric would make such a difference.  It is like putting a bandaid on a severed artery.

Quote
": Bob Wallace  August 29, 2014, 10:40:44 PM

In three years or less, if really needed and required, car companies could produce nothing but EVs and PHEVs.  In five  years we would have cut personal transportation oil use by close to 50%.  (Half of all miles driven are with cars five years old or newer.)"

I doubt it.

Considering tesla gigafactory will take 3 years to build (and that's not including the extra mining required to supply materials) and even that, while doubling world  battery production, will not produce anywhere near enough batteries to supply all new cars.

Ten years is a more reasonable estimate.

A very diplomatic response to an utterly impossible claim.  Ten years would potentially be possible perhaps, but the real point is that such a decision to attempt such a conversion will not be made.  Wishing on highly unlikely possibilities does none of us any good. It makes it much harder to solve the problems not easier.

Oil supplies (and gas and coal supplies) are easily sufficient to allow a version of our BAU economic growth strategies to be executed for at least a decade yet.  Maybe 20 years before the severe impacts of climate change really start kicking in and force us to change away from the BAU/Green BAU approaches.  If it is already too late now by then it wont matter much will it.

Before anyone spends a bunch of time trying to find and post snippits of data on incremental progress (though you are of course free to do so) consider for a moment all the text in this blog going back to its beginning and all its predecessors going back 5 years or so.  It is not an exaggeration that we were essentially out of time then and are more so now.  I mention this to point out that our GLOBAL trajectory has not changed in the slightest over that time.  Carbon emissions are still rising.  Specific emissions in various locals go up and down depending on local conditions, but it is the global aggregate that counts as climate change is a global phenomenon.

Oh well, I am sure I am wasting my time.  Back to retirement.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 05, 2014, 08:47:41 PM
Jim, let's dig a little deeper into your oil claims.  US oil consumption is up 2% after several years of decline. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FUSOilUseto2012.jpg&hash=b893133e8362bed6d28dda9714e584cd) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/USOilUseto2012.jpg.html)


If you go one level deeper than your "Watt's up" link you'll find "According to the IEA, much of that growth has been in the petrochemical industry, which has taken advantage of burgeoning domestic oil supply."

And "don’t expect the U.S. to go all the way back to its gas guzzling days. There are other reasons besides a declining economy that explain why U.S. oil demand fell so much over the past several years. Cars are now more fuel-efficient than ever, thanks to tougher fuel economy standards and growing consumer preferences for lighter, smaller cars and hybrids. But we’re also driving less."

http://time.com/1387/us-oil-demand-grows-faster-than-china/ (http://time.com/1387/us-oil-demand-grows-faster-than-china/)

-----

Now, the "an utterly impossible claim".  Please note that I said "if really needed and required". 

This was in response to the doomer-esque phony fear of suddenly running out of oil.  If is was suddenly revealed that most of the world's oil suppliers have been lying and they're actually running out of oil very soon then we'd almost certainly kick in a WWII effort.  We'd ration and we'd switch from ICEVs to EVs and PHEVs.  The car companies would show no resistance because it would be apparent that no one was going to purchase their ICEVs if they couldn't get fuel.

Now, are we likely to abruptly run out of oil?  No.  The chance is zero.  Did Peak Oil theory say that?  No, Peak Oil was talking about hitting a point at which supply would stop increasing and start dropping.  The idea of an Oil Cliff was something dreamed up by the Tinfoil Hat Club.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 05, 2014, 09:16:33 PM
Let's take a look at total US miles driven.  "Despite what you may think, Americans, on average, are driving more miles every day, not fewer"

Is there any truth to that?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2Fmiles-driven.gif&hash=00a1c7cc6b07225e44192a75484b1e93) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/miles-driven.gif.html)

Looking at the graph within the graph what I see is a chance that there's a small upward trend off the bottom in late 2012.  But there was another trough and peak in 2010/2011.  That leaves one questioning whether there is a real upturn or whether it's just noise.

I also notice the all time peak was November 2007.  Signs of the oncoming recession started appearing about then, but that would be only something economists would have noticed and I don't think any were predicting a historically deep recession.  The Great Recession and Financial Panic didn't hit the public 2008.

And let's take it back to oil use for personal transportation.  Average US vehicle efficiency increased 1.7% from 2007 to 2012.  (We don't seem to have 2013 numbers yet.) 

So oil use is up, short term, 2% with most of the increased consumption going to industry feedstock.  And use of oil in personal vehicles, which might be driving slightly more, has improved more than 1.7%.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jbg on September 06, 2014, 11:59:17 PM
Seems like a good topic to have as we are always talking about it and it certainly is very important  To start...

Mexico has finally ended their unusual policy of not allowing international oil/gas companies into the country.  This means that there will be a huge surge in that direction - especially from the US.  Expect a big boom in production within a couple of years that resembles the fracking boom in the US.

Overall this seems to be a positive development. I find dubious economic benefits in importing Arab or Venezuelan oil.  Especially when, during war, they set fire to each other's oil fields, which I am sure has some baleful environmental consequences.  Also the oil wealth in the Middle East is a major contributor to global jihad and such unconstructive groups as ISIS and Hamas.

Once this gets rolling it will be almost unstoppable.  Huge investments, big rise in wealth, lots of jobs, political corruption, economic growth.....

An interesting side effect is that once it is up and running it will put downward pressure on natural gas prices and add to the adverse effect that has on nuclear and renewable power generation.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/05/12/no-turning-back-mexico-looming-fracking-and-offshore-oil-and-gas-bonanza (http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/05/12/no-turning-back-mexico-looming-fracking-and-offshore-oil-and-gas-bonanza)
I didn't realize that many here favor unrestrained nuclear power development.  Life contains its surprises.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 07, 2014, 01:47:24 AM
Oil is going to be drilled as long as there is a demand for oil.  People will not give up their cars for the betterment of the planet.  (A few would, but not enough to make a difference.)

We stop oil by giving people acceptable substitutes.

(And nuclear is a dead man walking.  Just like coal.  There will be a few twitches and lurches forward as they stumble to their graves.)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2014, 09:56:35 PM
UK:
Quote
A fracking firm's plans to explore for shale oil in the South Downs National Park have been thrown out by the park authority, raising doubts about the future of the industry in southern England.
...
More than 5,000 people had lodged objections... with just 11 in favour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/11089361/Fracking-firms-South-Downs-drilling-plans-rejected.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/11089361/Fracking-firms-South-Downs-drilling-plans-rejected.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2014, 01:24:33 AM
"On Friday, the United States and the European Union imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow’s intervention in eastern Ukraine and following its annexation of the Crimean peninsula in March. The goal is to clamp down further on the Russian economy but it will significantly affect the drilling plans of western oil giants ExxonMobil and BP."

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/13/3567216/new-sanctions-loophole-exxonmobil-russia-arctic/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/13/3567216/new-sanctions-loophole-exxonmobil-russia-arctic/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 14, 2014, 01:50:41 AM
I suspect the problems with Russia are going to drive renewable installations faster. 

It looks like Putin intends to be "President for Life" and will continue to be a PITA.  The best way to minimize him is to reduce the need to purchase fossil fuels from Russia.  Starve the bear.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 14, 2014, 04:39:21 PM
I suspect the problems with Russia are going to drive renewable installations faster. 

It looks like Putin intends to be "President for Life" and will continue to be a PITA.  The best way to minimize him is to reduce the need to purchase fossil fuels from Russia.  Starve the bear.

Europe is playing a very dangerous game if it tries to starve the bear. Europe imports 40% of its natural gas from Russia. Shipments of natural gas to the Ukraine ceased in June. If they ratchet  up the pressure, do not be surprised if Russia suspends or dramatically raises the price for natural gas. Meanwhile, the first pipeline to deliver natural gas to China will be completed in 2017.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 14, 2014, 06:50:46 PM
You're supporting my suspicion that Europe is likely to increase renewable installation rates.  Best way to deal with Russia is to be independent of Russia.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2014, 06:56:46 PM
I wish I could find the article where -- I think it was former Secretary of State George Shultz -- says the best news for renewables would be if Russia cuts off its natural gas supply.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on September 17, 2014, 01:41:31 AM
Let's take a look at total US miles driven.  "Despite what you may think, Americans, on average, are driving more miles every day, not fewer"

Is there any truth to that?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2Fmiles-driven.gif&hash=00a1c7cc6b07225e44192a75484b1e93) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/miles-driven.gif.html)

Looking at the graph within the graph what I see is a chance that there's a small upward trend off the bottom in late 2012.  But there was another trough and peak in 2010/2011.  That leaves one questioning whether there is a real upturn or whether it's just noise.

I also notice the all time peak was November 2007.  Signs of the oncoming recession started appearing about then, but that would be only something economists would have noticed and I don't think any were predicting a historically deep recession.  The Great Recession and Financial Panic didn't hit the public 2008.

And let's take it back to oil use for personal transportation.  Average US vehicle efficiency increased 1.7% from 2007 to 2012.  (We don't seem to have 2013 numbers yet.) 

So oil use is up, short term, 2% with most of the increased consumption going to industry feedstock.  And use of oil in personal vehicles, which might be driving slightly more, has improved more than 1.7%.

I also wouldn't overlook the precipitous drop in the Labor Force Participation Rate since the peak in '07. The drop was pre-conditioned by demographics, but triggered by the recession. It has continued to drop since then and I think this has exerted significant downward pressure on total miles driven and oil consumed.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 17, 2014, 02:59:52 AM
I found some 2013 numbers...

Quote
The number of miles driven in the United States continues to stagnate, even amidst economic recovery, according to just-released figures from the Federal Highway Administration.

According to the agency’s December 2013 Traffic Volume Trends report, the number of vehicle-miles traveled on U.S. highways increased last year by approximately 0.6 percent – a rate of increase a tick slower than the 0.7 percent rate of population growth in the United States during 2013.

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/02/24/2013-another-year-of-falling-per-capita-driving-in-u-s/ (http://usa.streetsblog.org/2014/02/24/2013-another-year-of-falling-per-capita-driving-in-u-s/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2014, 07:39:41 PM
Major irony alert:  businesses debate solar vs. conventional energy -- to power the enhanced drilling of old oil wells!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101995330 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101995330)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: morganism on September 24, 2014, 11:25:18 PM
Another major methane leak looms. Canadian play for mega project

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/09/montney-oil-and-gas-could-soon-be-one.html#more (http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/09/montney-oil-and-gas-could-soon-be-one.html#more)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2014, 09:51:20 PM
Statoil calls off Canadian oil sand development, for economic reasons.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFO9N0MH01720140925 (http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFO9N0MH01720140925)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on September 29, 2014, 06:13:35 PM
Despite the UN climate summit, fossil fuel firms are still in for the long-term
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/29/despite-the-un-climate-summit-fossil-fuel-firms-are-still-in-for-the-long-term (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/29/despite-the-un-climate-summit-fossil-fuel-firms-are-still-in-for-the-long-term)

Quote
For that to happen, fossil fuel investors would have to accept that their future profits are limited, too. There was no sign of that in New York.
There is no way we will reduce our carbon foot print if we ask them kindly...It has to be a strong regulation, a strong enforcement, we are (should be) at war...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 07, 2014, 02:49:13 PM
Naomi Klein: UK fracking trespass law flouts democratic rights
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/07/naomi-klein-uk-fracking-trespass-law-flouts-democratic-rights (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/07/naomi-klein-uk-fracking-trespass-law-flouts-democratic-rights)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on October 08, 2014, 05:25:27 PM
Canadian tar sands finds it's way to the sea.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-08/keystone-be-darned-canada-finds-oil-route-around-obama.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-08/keystone-be-darned-canada-finds-oil-route-around-obama.html)


Obama is attempting to damage Putin by lowering oil prices and the lower prices are now the only obstacle to full tar sands development. Reagan broke the Soviet Union by tanking oil prices but I don't think a replay is in the cards. Canada and other producers won't throw their own economies under the bus just to punish Russia & the Saudis may not be willing, or able to flood the market for too long.
If the tar sands are fully exploited it's game over.
Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 09, 2014, 01:23:09 PM
Former oil mogul confirmed as EU climate and energy commissioner
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/former-oil-mogul-confirmed-as-eu-climate-and-energy-commissioner (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/former-oil-mogul-confirmed-as-eu-climate-and-energy-commissioner)

Absolutely no hope of any radical changes in the next years.
Amoung things Goldman Sacks control the European central bank and now this...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2014, 04:42:22 PM
This strikes me as... odd.  Lego breaks ties with Shell Oil for environmental public relations reasons. 
But, Legos (plastic pieces) are made from oil!  :o

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/lego-ends-shell-partnership-following-greenpeace-campaign (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/lego-ends-shell-partnership-following-greenpeace-campaign)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 09, 2014, 04:47:10 PM
'I Got It From the Beginning': What Five Years of Vicious Retaliatory Litigation Gets Chevron
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/aaron-marr-page/chevron-ecuador-litigation_b_5956484.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/aaron-marr-page/chevron-ecuador-litigation_b_5956484.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Quote
The idea that U.S. judicial authority can be deployed so neatly in service of a single private interest, even (or especially) one of the country's most powerful corporations, is a bit hard to swallow, at least for me. Others, it seems, got it from the beginning.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 10, 2014, 12:32:32 PM
Confirmed: California Aquifers Contaminated With Billions Of Gallons of Fracking Wastewater
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater (http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2014, 03:46:27 PM
This strikes me as... odd.  Lego breaks ties with Shell Oil for environmental public relations reasons. 
But, Legos (plastic pieces) are made from oil!  :o

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/lego-ends-shell-partnership-following-greenpeace-campaign (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/lego-ends-shell-partnership-following-greenpeace-campaign)

In the U.S., more than 2 % of fossil fuel consumption is used to make plastics. This includes natural gas, petroleum distillates and electricity consumption for the manufacturing process.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=34&t=6 (http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=34&t=6)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2014, 04:07:33 PM
In Germany, 129 million barrels of oil are converted into synthetic materials annually.

http://www.wintershall.com/en/company/oil-and-gas/oil-can-do-more.html (http://www.wintershall.com/en/company/oil-and-gas/oil-can-do-more.html)

http://www.onlineconversion.com/forum/forum_1058197476.htm (http://www.onlineconversion.com/forum/forum_1058197476.htm)

This is 14%  of total annual oil consumption of 912 million barrels.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=91 (http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gm&v=91)

I am having a hard time finding data on profit margins of various uses of oil but I have to believe that synthetic materials have far higher profit margins than a gallon of gasoline. If you want to  hit oil and refinery company profits, reduce your consumption of synthetic materials. This drop in profits would keep a lot of that "expensive to extract" oil in the ground.

Think plastics but also synthetic fibers used in textiles.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on October 10, 2014, 09:55:19 PM
If you want to hit oil company and refinery profits crush your ICEV (or if it's efficient sell it on to someone who can send their inefficient car to the crusher).

Get an EV.  Or a PHEV.  Or avoid driving if possible. 

If you look at how much plastic you recycle/send to the landfill per month compared to the amount of petroleum you burn.  The US uses 18, 19 million barrels of oil a day.  Over 6,500 per year.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on October 10, 2014, 10:21:12 PM
Confirmed: California Aquifers Contaminated With Billions Of Gallons of Fracking Wastewater
http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater (http://www.desmogblog.com/2014/10/07/central-california-aquifers-contaminated-billions-gallons-fracking-wastewater)

I read the link and followed back to its source.

"Almost 3 billion gallons of oil industry wastewater have been illegally dumped into central California aquifers that supply drinking water and farming irrigation, according to state documents obtained by the Center for Biological Diversity. The wastewater entered the aquifers through at least nine injection disposal wells used by the oil industry to dispose of waste contaminated with fracking fluids and other pollutants."

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2014, 02:03:06 PM
Why shale oil stocks are tanking.  Lower price for the crude oil means the value of the reserve is less, which means more high-interest debt.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102078976 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102078976)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on October 11, 2014, 03:42:26 PM
Quote
There's a Methane 'Hot Spot' the Size of Delaware in the American Southwest

Quote
According to new satellite research from scientists at NASA and the University of Michigan, this "hot spot" is "responsible for producing the largest concentration of the greenhouse gas methane seen over the United States—more than triple the standard ground-based estimate." It is 2,500 square miles, about the size of Delaware....

.....Between 2003-2009, the region released 0.59 million metric tons of it into the atmosphere.

So why is Four Corners spewing out an apocalyptic amount of methane? Because of old, leaky-ass fossil fuel infrastructure, that's why. The hot spot predates fracking, the researchers say, so they've flagged "leaks in natural gas production and processing equipment in New Mexico's San Juan Basin, which is the most active coalbed methane production area in the country" as the culprit.


http://motherboard.vice.com/read/there-is-a-methane-hot-spot-the-size-of-delaware-in-the-american-southwest (http://motherboard.vice.com/read/there-is-a-methane-hot-spot-the-size-of-delaware-in-the-american-southwest)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 13, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
Mark Carney: most fossil fuel reserves can't be burned
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/13/mark-carney-fossil-fuel-reserves-burned-carbon-bubble (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/13/mark-carney-fossil-fuel-reserves-burned-carbon-bubble)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 14, 2014, 10:14:40 AM
Can we trust our politicians to save us from the greed of the richest ? the answer is clearly, no !
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/14/uk-to-allow-fracking-companies-to-use-any-substance-under-homes (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/14/uk-to-allow-fracking-companies-to-use-any-substance-under-homes)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2014, 05:27:53 PM
The linked MIT article makes the case that without large-scale carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), other measures—including rollouts of renewable and nuclear power—will not avert catastrophic climate effects in the coming century and beyond (see extracts from the article below):

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/531531/carbon-sequestration-too-little-too-late/ (http://www.technologyreview.com/news/531531/carbon-sequestration-too-little-too-late/)

Extract: "Some sort of policy that would put a price on carbon emissions seems to be needed to drive CCS forward. Nothing is forcing the fossil-fuel industry’s hand, and the coal industry is loath to see more costs imposed on its product.

...

Meanwhile, the facts on the ground—and in the air—are quite grim. “So far, we have achieved almost nothing in terms of mitigation of emissions, which are tracking at the upper limit for future emission scenarios. Indeed, in the last decade the world economy has actually recarbonized—shifted back to coal,” says David Victor, professor of international relations and director of the Laboratory on International Law and Regulation at the University of California, San Diego."

The attached Keeling Atmospheric CO2 Curve measured at Mauna Loa emphasizes Professor Victor's point that despite a large amount of talk for well over 20 years, the bottom line is that the world remains on the BAU (slightly above the RCP 8.5) scenario for radiative forcing, and without a meaningful carbon pricing plan, society will not avoid serious consequences (such as billions of deaths between 2050 and 2100).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 15, 2014, 06:11:56 PM
According to the linked article, in order to fight-off encroachment of its market Saudi Arabia has chosen to maintain high crude oil production rates that has caused oil prices to drop 23 percent between June 2014 and Oct 13 2014, and looks likely to drop still further (possibly to around $70 per barrel). This is forecast to promote energy inefficiencies and to reduce the rate of growth of renewable energy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oil-prices-plunge-as-production-rises-fueling-concern-in-opec/2014/10/14/9bfd877c-53c9-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oil-prices-plunge-as-production-rises-fueling-concern-in-opec/2014/10/14/9bfd877c-53c9-11e4-892e-602188e70e9c_story.html)

Extract: "With a weak global economy, the customary swing producer of oil — Saudi Arabia — has cut prices instead of cutting production, setting off a scramble on world markets. Crude oil prices have tumbled more than 23 percent since June, including a more than 4 percent drop Tuesday. Prices fell below four-year lows to wind up at $81.84 a barrel for the benchmark grade, West Texas Intermediate."

This relatively cheap crude oil will also likely stimulate global economic development; which will result in continued relatively high GHG emissions for some time to come.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2014, 01:44:34 AM
More on the current OPEC oil price wars:

Quote
OPEC is resisting pressure to cut oil production while demand slumps as it tests how low prices must go to make U.S. shale oil unprofitable. As producers become more efficient, that floor is sinking.
...
About 2.6 million barrels of daily production, or 2.8 percent of global output, requires an oil price of $80 a barrel or more to be profitable, the IEA said. Only about 4 percent of U.S. shale output needs prices above that level, it said. Canadian synthetic oil projects are the most dependent on high prices, with about a quarter needing oil to remain above $80, the agency said.
...
Global oil consumption will expand by about 650,000 barrels a day this year to 92.7 million, the lowest growth since 2009 and about half the increase projected in June, the IEA said. OPEC boosted production in September, pumping 30.47 million barrels a day, the most since August 2013, the group said Oct. 10 in its latest monthly oil market report. Its next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 27 in Vienna.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/opec-finding-u-s-shale-harder-to-crack-as-rout-deepens.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/opec-finding-u-s-shale-harder-to-crack-as-rout-deepens.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 17, 2014, 09:42:23 AM
Texas Plant to Capture, and Then Reuse, Carbon
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/business/energy-environment/texas-plant-to-capture-and-then-reuse-carbon.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/business/energy-environment/texas-plant-to-capture-and-then-reuse-carbon.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 17, 2014, 09:50:42 AM
Court Files: Coal CEO Robert Murray Unearths Lease from Aubrey McClendon's New Fracking Company
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-horn/court-files-coal-ceo-robe_b_6000912.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-horn/court-files-coal-ceo-robe_b_6000912.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Quote
Elisabeth Radow, a New York-based attorney who examined a copy of the lease, told DeSmogBlog she believes the lease "has the effect of granting American Energy Partners the right to use the surface and subsurface to such a great extent that it takes away substantially all of the rights attributable to homeownership."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 18, 2014, 09:43:29 AM
Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Owner Wins Climate Leadership Award
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/17/keystone-xl-climate-transcanada_n_6005898.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/17/keystone-xl-climate-transcanada_n_6005898.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 20, 2014, 06:44:23 PM
While Didcot B burned, renewable energy powered on
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/oct/20/while-didcot-b-burned-renewable-energy-powered-on (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/oct/20/while-didcot-b-burned-renewable-energy-powered-on)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 21, 2014, 11:18:44 AM
Intense Industry Pressure Causes E.U. To Stop Calling Tar Sands Dirty
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/07/3577033/europe-tar-sands-not-dirty/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/07/3577033/europe-tar-sands-not-dirty/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 21, 2014, 08:55:12 PM
US fossil fuel emissions rise despite Obama's new climate change push
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/21/us-fossil-fuel-obama-climate-change-energy-heat (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/21/us-fossil-fuel-obama-climate-change-energy-heat)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 23, 2014, 04:03:00 PM
Google Quits ALEC, But Chevron, ExxonMobil and Shell Stay Put
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elliott-negin/google-quits-alec-but-che_b_6030760.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elliott-negin/google-quits-alec-but-che_b_6030760.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on October 24, 2014, 01:39:57 AM
Former oil mogul confirmed as EU climate and energy commissioner
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/former-oil-mogul-confirmed-as-eu-climate-and-energy-commissioner (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/former-oil-mogul-confirmed-as-eu-climate-and-energy-commissioner)

Absolutely no hope of any radical changes in the next years.
Amoung things Goldman Sacks control the European central bank and now this...

This kind of crap blows my mind. If it's your number one priority, why the hell would you accept a compromise like this? They say he "can't act on his own". That may be true, but the influence alone is negative.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2014, 09:44:12 PM
Is Canada headed for a pipeline bubble?
Quote
More importantly though, I believe that in their haste to contain the scope of their analysis, the NEB has overlooked a key area of their responsibility—that of the needs assessment for the pipeline—in the context of national and global action on greenhouse gases.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/is-canada-headed-for-a-pipeline-bubble/ (http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/is-canada-headed-for-a-pipeline-bubble/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 25, 2014, 03:00:51 AM
Quote
We need a managed and fair transition, not a massive oil shock which could plunge the already fuel-poor into further hardship and breed economic and social pandemonium. If today’s anti-oil social movements continue to strengthen, this could happen: through pressure from shareholders, the erosion of oil companies’ social licence, the physical disruption of operations by local resistance, the boom in renewable energy, and public pressure on governments to take more decisive climate action.

The oil majors will be forced to retreat, to shrink. Some will disappear completely. Perhaps there will be enough political will for states to step in and physically break them up, like Standard Oil. More likely in the short-term they will suffer painful economic shocks as their favourable terms of trade evaporate, dwindle rapidly as investors remove their capital to invest elsewhere, be asset-stripped by corporate raiders, and find themselves forced to transform or die, like so many obsolete industries before them.

However it happens, the oil majors will ultimately become oil minors, relinquishing their vice-like grip on the political process and making a much more diverse, decentralized and democratic energy future possible.

‘We will see the end of the oil companies in the rear-view mirror,’ predicts Big Oil’s long-term adversary James Marriott, who co-founded Platform over 30 years ago to monitor, expose, communicate and inspire creative resistance to the industry. ‘The last thing to disappear – like the smile on the Cheshire cat – will be the logos.’
http://newint.org/features/2014/11/01/extended-oil-keynote (http://newint.org/features/2014/11/01/extended-oil-keynote)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on October 25, 2014, 07:34:31 AM
Can that graph possibly be correct?  About a 10% decrease from 2020 projected demand would keep climate change under control?

I must be reading the graph wrong or the graph is badly wrong. 

Perhaps a 10% cut by 2020 with following cuts in order to get CO2 down 40% to 70%  by 2050 is implied?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2014, 04:47:13 PM
Per the following linked article (see extract), in an announcement on Sunday, Goldman Sachs estimates that the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price could drop to as low as $70 per barrel by the second quarter of 2015; which would likely accelerate carbon emissions.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/oil-forecast-goldman-idINKBN0IG07J20141027 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/oil-forecast-goldman-idINKBN0IG07J20141027)

Extract: "Goldman analysts said in a report released late on Sunday that they expect U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI)crude to fall to $75 a barrel and Brent to $85 a barrel in the first quarter of 2015, both down $15 a barrel from their previous forecast.
WTI could fall as low as $70 in the second quarter and Brent as low as $80, when oversupply would be the most pronounced, before returning to first-quarter levels, Goldman said."

Furthermore today, following the Goldman Sachs announcement, Brent crude dropped to $85 per barrel, as indicated by the following linked article (see extract below):

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/markets-oil-idINKBN0IG05820141027 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/markets-oil-idINKBN0IG05820141027)

Extract: "Brent crude oil fell below $85 a barrel on Monday after Goldman Sachs slashed its price forecasts, citing abundant supply and lacklustre demand despite a pick-up in global economic growth."

Edit: Also today, the WTI crude price opened at $80 per barrel (see following link & extract):

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/wti-crude-tumbles-below-80-following-goldman-downgrade-cm406461 (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/wti-crude-tumbles-below-80-following-goldman-downgrade-cm406461)

Extract: "Investing.com - West Texas Intermediate oil futures plunged below the key $80-a-barrel level on Monday, after Goldman Sachs slashed its 2015 price forecast, citing rising global supplies."

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on October 27, 2014, 06:46:47 PM
I don't trust anything the thieves at Sachs and their cohorts have to say. They are the biggest players in commodity futures, and every word outta their mouths is a lie, intended to game the market so as to maximize their profits. The legislation enabling banks and investment houses to play the oil markets was ramrodded through by their flunkies in office under cover of the recent recession.

Chris Cook over at eurotrib has excellent discussion on how oil futures are gamed. If you have a strong stomach, that is. He has some revealing asides on how to read Platt's.

Saudi has enuf reserve in tankage to pump for about three months. This is being done in a repeat of the Reagan years, to pressure Russia. Except this time the Russians have China bankrolling them. One of the greatest screwups the USA could have made is to drive those two powers closer together, effectively undoing all of Nixon's Chinese entente. That i think, will be seen as the second great strategic blunder by the USA in the space of a decade, the first of course, being the Iraq clusterfuck.

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2014, 07:44:54 PM
sidd,

My bottom line is that the only way to rein-in the unfair influence of people with power (power corrupts), is for 51% of the voting public to say that they have hade enough.  Until then, I believe that people with power (Goldman Sachs, Fossil Fuel Industry, Insurance Industry, etc) will keep us all on a BAU pathway, saying that it is necessary to keep our fragile global economy working.  Thus in my opinion society has a high probability of experiencing (or exceeding) a 4 C mean global surface temperature rise by 2050.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2014, 02:24:43 PM
Texas Oil And Gas Companies Must Now Research An Area’s Earthquake History Before Drilling

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/28/3585530/texas-fracking-earthquake-rules/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/10/28/3585530/texas-fracking-earthquake-rules/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 30, 2014, 09:16:27 AM
Oil, smoke & mirrors
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6porZSebrM#t=190 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6porZSebrM#t=190)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on October 31, 2014, 09:55:12 AM
Donny Rico Gives Credit Where Credit Is Due: Judge Kaplan
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-paz-y-mino/donny-rico-gives-credit-w_b_6078730.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-paz-y-mino/donny-rico-gives-credit-w_b_6078730.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2014, 07:26:30 PM
The battle over Burnaby Mountain heated up in a Vancouver courtroom.  Several residents were hastily served with legal notices -- some via Facebook -- claiming they have been interfering with Kinder Morgan's survey work.
Quote
“We’re hoping the City of Burnaby can [stop the pipeline] in the courts.  We’re hoping that the Tsleil Waututh Nation can do that through the courts.  Anything, anything except this pipeline,” said the literature professor.
http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/kinder-morgan-serves-legal-papers-pipeline-opponent-facebook?page=0,0 (http://www.vancouverobserver.com/news/kinder-morgan-serves-legal-papers-pipeline-opponent-facebook?page=0,0)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2014, 10:20:34 PM
Venezuela begins to import oil, despite having the world's largest reserves, due to government mismanagement.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/11/02/venezuela/18243787/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2014/11/02/venezuela/18243787/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 06, 2014, 02:10:46 AM
Carbon Tracker report: 90 percent of Canadian tar sands investments need oil prices above $95 a barrel to make economic sense.

"The report was based on prices for Brent crude, which are slightly higher than the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate price. (Tar sand crude, in turn, trades at a discount to WTI.) In trading on Tuesday, WTI touched $75 briefly and closed at $77."

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141105/oil-prices-erode-tar-sands-become-riskier-investments (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141105/oil-prices-erode-tar-sands-become-riskier-investments)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on November 11, 2014, 10:15:52 AM
Fossil fuel promises are being broken, report says
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29985382 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-29985382)

How the G20 subsidises exploration for fossil fuel – interactive
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/nov/11/how-the-g20-subsidises-exploration-for-fossil-fuel-interactive (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/ng-interactive/2014/nov/11/how-the-g20-subsidises-exploration-for-fossil-fuel-interactive)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2014, 08:12:12 PM
Act of desperation?  Or, a belief they are running out of time to find and extract oil they soon won't be allowed to burn.
Quote
Royal Dutch Shell attempt to start an office of pre-crime will not be getting off the ground, the United States 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled.

Whether or not the oil giant was inspired by Minority Report — the Tom Cruise scifi film where law officers use advanced methods to arrest people for crimes they have yet to commit — is unknown. But they certainly tried to ape the model. Two years ago, Shell preemptively sued a raft of environmental groups in an effort to cut them off from suing the company to derail its plans to drill in the arctic. On Wednesday, the court dryly called Shell’s legal strategy “novel,” and then threw it out as unconstitutional, the Los Angeles Times reported. (Roughly the same thing ultimately happened in the movie.)
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/14/3592496/shell-oil-pre-crime-lawsuit/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/14/3592496/shell-oil-pre-crime-lawsuit/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2014, 03:24:19 PM
Quick video clip from CNBC's "Squawk Box" about IEA saying low oil & gas prices mean "a new chapter" for the industry.  One analyst has finally "thrown in the towel" on natural gas; the program has "run out of people" to talk about it.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000330340 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000330340)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2014, 04:34:23 PM
And here's the CNBC article.
Quote
It is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets," it said. "Economic development no longer spurs oil demand growth as it once did, especially in the absence of wage gains."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102185253 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102185253)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2014, 10:49:47 PM
An infrastructure company leaves Germany because of gas and coal.  And that's a good thing.

Quote
One sentence spoken by Bilfinger’s CEO Herbert Bodner really says it all (report in German): “We have to focus on countries where coal still has a future.” Bilfinger is an infrastructure builder, a bit like Halliburton in the US. The company also builds power plants, and the downturn in demand for both gas turbines and coal plants in Germany has left the company high and dry. In the first three quarters of 2014, it posted a loss after nearly 100 million euros in the first three quarters of the previous year.
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/first-industrial-firm-leaves-germany/150/537/83308/ (http://www.renewablesinternational.net/first-industrial-firm-leaves-germany/150/537/83308/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 26, 2014, 03:06:31 AM
Dropping Oil Prices And Sanctions Are Hurting Russia To The Tune Of $140 Billion
Arctic drilling becoming uneconomical.
In US, Wall Street projects a price of $75/barrel for oil in 2015.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/25/3596403/russia-oil-prices-sanctions-140-billion/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/25/3596403/russia-oil-prices-sanctions-140-billion/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 28, 2014, 02:45:47 PM
OPEC's decision to not cut oil output will weigh on the stock market this morning.

Nov 28, 8:30am
Quote
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.40. U.S. equity futures continue facing modest pressure with the S&P 500 futures three points below fair value. The few participants who are getting ready for today's session have not received any economic data or earnings of note. With that in mind, the energy sector is likely to be today's focal point after OPEC's decision to leave production quotas unchanged.

That news has weighed on crude oil, which has been trying to pare its losses. The energy component has been able to add about 50 cents from yesterday's low, but remains down 5.9% at $69.31/bbl. This has led to early weakness in major energy names like Chevron (CVX 111.60, -3.51), EOG Resources (EOG 89.00, -5.07), ExxonMobil (XOM 91.17, -3.31), and Halliburton (HAL 44.97, -2.37).

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/popuppages/articlepopup.aspx?articleId=SI2014112808295701 (http://www.briefing.com/investor/popuppages/articlepopup.aspx?articleId=SI2014112808295701)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on November 29, 2014, 11:47:24 AM
China to raise oil product consumption tax
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-11/28/c_133821218.htm (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-11/28/c_133821218.htm)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2014, 04:00:14 PM
Nigeria's economy is tanking as its oil exports to U.S. have ceased.
Quote
The big fat zero was a milestone not only on the United States' journey toward energy independence, but a signpost pointing to a new world. With it, Nigeria became the first formerly flush oil producer to essentially lose its entire share of the U.S. market, leaving it scrambling for new customers, less able to fund its internal war on terror and less important to the U.S.

"Nigeria is facing a sea change in relations with the United States, a sea change in its geopolitical position in the world," says Peter Pham, director of the Africa Program at the Atlantic Council, searching for words to capture the magnitude of the moment.

Experts are just beginning to sort through the implications of the U.S. switching from being the biggest single consumer of petroleum to a producer and - eventually perhaps - a competitor. They see Nigeria, which generates 70 percent of its budget from oil sales, as a test case that may hold important clues about how other oil-rich nations like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Russia will react as their oil-driven economies come under additional pressure.

"The collapse of the price of oil brought on by the rise in American production is fundamentally changing the world," said John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and now director of the Ralph Bunche Center at the Council on Foreign Relations. "This energy shift is akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union in its foreign policy implications."
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/needle-zero-nigerias-economy-tanking-u-s-oil-exports-dry-n256236 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/needle-zero-nigerias-economy-tanking-u-s-oil-exports-dry-n256236)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2014, 05:47:49 PM
A collection of comments about the effects of the current oil price drop.
Quote
This is a sampler of the increasingly confused and borderline panicky reactions around the world to the plunging price of oil.   Intensely interesting puzzle emerging, as temporary price drops tease consumers, but more thoughtful observers see grave danger for producers, and the economies that are too reliant on them.
One example:
Quote
The financial press is reacting. Barrons, below, not known as a starry eyed promoter of sustainable futures, asks if oil may be accelerating its own decline.
Key phrase: “Volatility sells Teslas“.

Barrons:

The price of oil is plunging–and the shares of producers with it–after Opec decided not to cut production yesterday. Wolfe Research’s Paul Sankey and team think this is the beginning of the end for oil:

This is going to be volatile, and we can’t understand how that helps the Saudis. Volatility sells Teslas (TSLA). There seemed to be a clear degree of irritation in Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi’s comments to the crush of journalists; as ever, he had front run his position: no real cut because as he said, he expects the market “to stabilise itself eventually“. He is wrong…

We don’t think that global oil demand will significantly react to lower oil prices, and thus we think the market will clear at the point of US supply growth destruction. That will take six months to work through, at which point we will likely hit a significant slowdown in US oil production growth, falling Russian production, deteriorating OPEC member stability – notably in Venezuela, Nigeria, and of course Libya – and rising global demand. So we go low, to storage economics (likely $50/bbl WTI) in Q1 2015 and then squeeze supply. And then we squeeze radically higher. As a result, the world accelerates its move away from oil. The conclusion will be, OPEC, like Rockefeller, ultimately damned itself.
http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/29/the-weekend-wonk-with-coal-on-the-ropes-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-oil/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/29/the-weekend-wonk-with-coal-on-the-ropes-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-oil/)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2014, 10:11:43 PM
Crude Oil Drops Below $66
Quote
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for January delivery tumbled below $66 a barrel on Friday and closed at $66.15, down 10.5%, the lowest settlement in five years. Brent crude slipped 3.4% in London to close at $70.15 after briefly falling below $70 a barrel.
...

Globally there is also the increasing focus on climate change and the damage to the planet caused by carbon dioxide emissions. There is reason to believe that concerns about climate change and energy use are far more likely to last than they were 40 years ago when President Jimmy Carter encouraged everyone to turn the heat down and put on a sweater.

The Saudis recognize that oil prices have to fall now and they believe that they are in the best position to be the last man standing if prices dive and stay down for a reasonably long period of time, say 18 months to 2 years. Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/11/29/crude-oil-drops-below-66/ (http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/11/29/crude-oil-drops-below-66/)



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on November 30, 2014, 01:35:36 AM
Quote
Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.

A rapid increase a couple of years from now should be extremely good for EVs. 

Battery prices are likely to be down.  We should have 200 mile range EVs for $35k or less.  That's likely to push a lot of people off oil and onto electricity.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2014, 04:24:37 AM
Texans -- yes, Texans! -- are speaking out against fracking in their neighborhoods.
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20141130-other-texas-towns-join-denton-in-testing-oil-gas-supremacy-on-fracking.ece (http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20141130-other-texas-towns-join-denton-in-testing-oil-gas-supremacy-on-fracking.ece)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2014, 09:19:10 PM
Quote
The Bank of England is conducting an investigation into the risk of an economic crash if fossil fuel companies were prevented from using their coal, oil and gas assets because of climate change considerations.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2014, 10:00:00 PM
Quote
TransCanada Corp. (TRP) is putting on hold studies for the Cacouna oil export terminal in Quebec as part of its proposed Energy East pipeline project after a nearby beluga whale population was assessed as endangered.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/transcanada-halts-terminal-work-as-beluga-seen-endangered.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/transcanada-halts-terminal-work-as-beluga-seen-endangered.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 03, 2014, 03:40:30 AM
Quote
The Bank of England is conducting an investigation into the risk of an economic crash if fossil fuel companies were prevented from using their coal, oil and gas assets because of climate change considerations.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-england-investigating-risk-of-carbon-bubble-1.2856241)

Anyone investigating how much the BofE has invested in fossil fuels and how many board members they have in common?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 03, 2014, 06:19:31 PM
Quote
Crude prices will have to rise again as exploration and development slow down because low prices cut off capital funding. Gradually, supply will drop below demand and prices will begin to rise again. But how far and how fast are the big questions.

A rapid increase a couple of years from now should be extremely good for EVs. 

Battery prices are likely to be down.  We should have 200 mile range EVs for $35k or less.  That's likely to push a lot of people off oil and onto electricity.

His statement about capital expenditures is only partially true, though. New tech not only helps renewables, but fossil fuel extraction as well. Production costs have dropped significantly in just the past few years, and secondary/tertiary oil extraction tech companies have boomed.

My bottom line is that the assumption that <$70-80/barrel oil would kill these fracking companies or induce OPEC to cut significantly just haven't panned out. There was quite a bit of profit margin to be had in the first place and there's still quite a bit of room left for a price war to keep market share.

To be sure, the price will eventually come back up. But again, as we're seeing now, the best cure for high prices is high prices.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 03, 2014, 11:45:38 PM

......
My bottom line is that the assumption that <$70-80/barrel oil would kill these fracking companies or induce OPEC to cut significantly just haven't panned out. There was quite a bit of profit margin to be had in the first place and there's still quite a bit of room left for a price war to keep market share.
....

You're coming to this conclusion a bit too soon.  Give it some time.  Should global production stay high (and it is not right to blame this all on OPEC as the US could cut production just as easily as anyone - in fact since our production is of higher cost cost a rational argument would swing that direction) there will be a blood bath in the oil industry sometime in 2015.

I note that about a year ago I predicted such a shakeout in mid-2015 and we are right on track.  Production costs when looked at by those not getting their salary in some fashion from the companies being looked have shown consistently the very high costs of the fracking operations as well as the dramatic depletion numbers.  While some spin the news such as the optimism pundits  throwing out numbers indicating that only a small percentage of frackers in places like ND are operating at a loss the real numbers are certainly over 50% at the current WTI price.  In addition the drillers are well down the stack of their options from the top prospects and well into the mediocre ones.  Thus more dry holes, smaller discoveries and quicker depletion.. and thus higher costs are all they have to look forward too. 

Many of the fracking operators in ND who have made millions for their owners and various original investors have never made any profit from selling oil.   They have made their money from effective promotion of 'discoveries' which boosted stock prices which they then capitalized on.  This is a common tactic in the oil business and has been perfected well over the last 70 years.

The debt issues associated with large percentages of these companies are significant and potentially catastrophic.  They are deep in debt... deep... and only access to continuing funds can keep them afloat.  It is going to get much harder to find the suckers willing to give them the money if prices stay low.  They would never have gotten this money if the return on investments was so horrible and the big money folks were desperately looking for someplace to put it.  There is a huge classic bubble in this business (a periodic thing in the oil business as I have seen at least 3 of them) and we are following the standard step by step path to the next crash.  And it is going to crash and many will get hammered.

What the Saudi's are doing is merely effective capitalism.  They would be stupid to cut production. They have a host of weak competitors (not just American but we are certainly very vulnerable) and they are doing the smart thing and setting up to smash them flat.  Unless we can pressure them into changing their tactics (we have a lot less leverage with them than we did 20 years ago) they are going to wipe out a bunch of their competitors and gain market share.  Yes prices will eventually rise again as that is the Saudi plan of course, but the damage to our real interests (I am assuming that our real interest is trying to halt the worsening of climate change) are going to be very significant. To wit:

Very cheap oil and gas will promote much greater consumption of same.
It makes fossil fuels more competitive with alternative energies.
Purchasing of large trucks and SUV's is already dramatically increasing (up about 30% overall already in the US).  This of course is a long term buy in of such wasteful technology.
Purchasing of hybrids and electrics will likely slow or stagnate as they become much less competitive.
It dramatically raises the prospects of Keystone approval as Canadian Tar sands production will also be really hurt by this situation and the argument will be made that costs "must" be lowered by getting that oil out of rail-cars and into more efficient pipelines.
It significantly lowers the cost of producing and shipping coal.
It will will devastate the economies of a number of countries hanging on the edge with all the attendant fall out that that entails; examples being Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola and the like.
I won't even go into what the effects of our latest election will have when combined with this situation.

At least I can still laugh about the insanity of our various BAU cultures :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-policy-ensures-u-s-shale-crash-russian-oil-tycoon-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-27/opec-policy-ensures-u-s-shale-crash-russian-oil-tycoon-says.html)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-might-get-the-last-laugh-on-oil-2014-11-28 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-might-get-the-last-laugh-on-oil-2014-11-28)

http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/01/saudi-arabia-declares-oil-war-on-us-fracking-hits-railroads-tank-car-makers-canada-russia-sinks-venezuela/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/01/saudi-arabia-declares-oil-war-on-us-fracking-hits-railroads-tank-car-makers-canada-russia-sinks-venezuela/)

http://online.wsj.com/articles/opecs-war-wont-be-all-over-by-christmas-heard-on-the-street-1417463235?mod=rss_most_viewed_day_asia (http://online.wsj.com/articles/opecs-war-wont-be-all-over-by-christmas-heard-on-the-street-1417463235?mod=rss_most_viewed_day_asia)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-30/oil-at-40-possible-as-market-transforms-caracas-to-iran.html)

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/11/a-glut-of-oil (http://econbrowser.com/archives/2014/11/a-glut-of-oil)



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 01:45:38 AM
First U.S. Gas Station Drops Below $2 a Gallon
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/first-u-s-gas-station-drops-below-2-a-gallon.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/first-u-s-gas-station-drops-below-2-a-gallon.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 04, 2014, 01:58:48 AM
What I understand is that the current price of oil has stopped new developments in the Canadian tar sands.  And permits for new wells in North Dakota are down.

I don't quite understand what the Saudis are doing.  If they would cut supply by 10% and force prices up 10% (pick your own number) then they would end up with about the same profits and more oil in their holes.

The Saudis, being the low cost provider does not need to worry about EVs, etc. from stranding their oil.  Manufacturers will likely need oil for feedstock well after we've retired the last ICEV and switched the last airplane to biofuel/whatever.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 02:08:59 AM
Bob,
The financial chatter I am seeing says that the Saudis want to keep prices low to force out of business those oil sources that require higher prices to be profitable.  Could work....

Sub-$50 Oil Surfaces in North Dakota Amid Regional Discounts
Quote
“To a producer in Wyoming, if Brent’s $70 then I’m at $50, then I have to start asking does it economically make sense to keep drilling,” Auers said yesterday. “They might start reallocating capital, you might see projects slowed or shut down.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/sub-50-oil-surfaces-in-north-dakota-as-regional-discounts-swell.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 02:21:28 AM
The global plunge in crude oil prices is impeding Canada’s economic recovery...
Quote
“Things were going pretty well until oil prices collapsed,” said Benjamin Reitzes, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. The policy rate will remain frozen until October 2015, he said.

Oil sands deposits in Alberta are among the world’s most expensive to produce, and a quarter of such projects globally are at risk from falling prices, according to the International Energy Agency. Calgary-based Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., which has a capital budget of C$8.6 billion ($7.5 billion) for 2015, may cut investment if oil prices stay around $70 a barrel, President Steve Laut said in an interview last month.

Price Impact

“The impact of falling prices isn’t linear on the oil sector,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, who said crude at $60 to $65 a barrel could lead to major cancellations. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery traded at $67.65 on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/plunging-crude-adds-to-poloz-case-for-1-canada-rate-hold.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/plunging-crude-adds-to-poloz-case-for-1-canada-rate-hold.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 02:28:08 AM
Here's a great overview (slideshow):

The Biggest Winners and Unluckiest Losers of the Oil Crash
http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2014-12-03/the-biggest-winners-and-unluckiest-losers-of-the-oil-crash.html#slide7 (http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2014-12-03/the-biggest-winners-and-unluckiest-losers-of-the-oil-crash.html#slide7)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 02:54:25 AM
Interesting interactive comparison of gasoline prices and (un)affordability in different countries.

@tsrandall: Only five countries have less Pain at the Pump than the U.S. -- four are OPEC

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/gas-prices/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/gas-prices/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 04, 2014, 06:12:50 AM
Quote
The financial chatter I am seeing says that the Saudis want to keep prices low to force out of business those oil sources that require higher prices to be profitable.

I still haven't found an explantion of Saudi behavior that makes sense to me.  Your slideshow says they need almost $100/barrel to keep their economy in balance.  Perhaps they can flood the market with cheaper oil and net the same by selling a smaller amount at ~$100.  The Bloomberg slide should have talked about earnings, not barrel price.  A few barrels at a high price can equal more barrels at a lower price.  It's net revenue.

Saudi takes it low.  Stops new projects in Canada and North Dakota.  Screws things up for Venezuela.  In some months the price creeps back up.  The rigs move back into North Dakota, new projects start up in Canada, etc.

Did US oil crash the market?  I haven't seen anything that looks like a demand drop recently.
---


BTW, there's a rumor starting up that Nissan may be bringing an affordable 250 mile range EV to market in the near future.  It's based on some things Ghosen said and there hasn't been any denial.  I'd put it "don't start believing yet", but if they do, along with GM's and Tesla's more affordable EVs, then we can start the death clock for oil fairly soon.
 

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 03:21:36 PM
Found this:  :)
CEO Ghosn: Nissan Has Affordable 250-Mile Range EV Battery
http://www.hybridcars.com/ceo-ghosn-nissan-has-affordable-250-mile-range-ev-battery/ (http://www.hybridcars.com/ceo-ghosn-nissan-has-affordable-250-mile-range-ev-battery/)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 03:43:29 PM
Quote
The financial chatter I am seeing says that the Saudis want to keep prices low to force out of business those oil sources that require higher prices to be profitable.

I still haven't found an explantion of Saudi behavior that makes sense to me.  Your slideshow says they need almost $100/barrel to keep their economy in balance.  Perhaps they can flood the market with cheaper oil and net the same by selling a smaller amount at ~$100.  The Bloomberg slide should have talked about earnings, not barrel price.  A few barrels at a high price can equal more barrels at a lower price.  It's net revenue.
...

"The chatter" says the Saudis are comfortable selling their oil at a loss for several years, because they have put aside billions in savings. 

Thus the global fallout could be significant.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 04, 2014, 05:03:04 PM
Quote
"The chatter" says the Saudis are comfortable selling their oil at a loss for several years, because they have put aside billions in savings.

I understand that the Saudis can afford to take a loss.  I'm not understanding what they're getting for the bath they are taking.

Slow oil extraction in Canada and the US?  Deal a body blow to Venezuela and some other economies who rely on oil income?  These are not Saudi Arabia's mortal enemies.

Hurt ISIS?  Reform OPEC by blackmailing other oil countries to join up and take orders from SA?  Part of the Islamic sectarian war? (I'm struggling for an explanation.)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Zythryn on December 04, 2014, 05:19:30 PM
They are holding onto, and retaking market share.

Shale oil rigs, from what I have heard, peak and die off pretty quickly.
So Saudi keeps prices down making new drill sites an unreasonable investment, shale and tar sands production declines, OPEC market share, and thus control, increases.

Prices climb again.  Now, investors thinking about new drill sites have to consider their risk. What if Saudi does this again.  Perhaps my money is best invested elsewhere.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on December 04, 2014, 05:33:33 PM
I assume the logic is that once the higher cost operations have shut down, it is more costly to set them up again partly due to set up costs and partly due to investors fears that Saudi will sell cheap to put them out of business again.

I imagine it would still be pretty difficult for Saudi to judge how much higher they should allow prices to go once higher cost source have gone bust to make good profits while still keeping the higher cost sources concerned about starting up again. They may have to keep that going for quite a while for it to be worth incurring much in the way of losses. Some shock causing a price rise might bring players back in. But if they are a low cost supplier, there need not be much losses, just a faster reduction in reserves.

Hah beaten to it.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 06:01:17 PM
So this is happening:
@BloombergNRG: Gas price war erupts in Oklahoma City as $2 floor collapses http://t.co/1in9YbqW3D (http://t.co/1in9YbqW3D) by Margaret Newkirk and @Lynnmdoan http://t.co/t9EvedhXbL (http://t.co/t9EvedhXbL)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2014, 06:30:59 PM
Town in usually oil-friendly Alaska sues Koch company for ground water contamination.
Quote
According to a lawsuit filed by the city last week, two oil companies are responsible for polluting North Pole’s groundwater and some private drinking water wells with a mysterious chemical. The chemical, called sulfolane, leaked from an oil refinery that the lawsuit alleges was negligently operated — both by current refinery owner Flint Hills Alaska Resources, which is owned by Koch Industries, and former owner Williams Alaska Petroleum.
...
It’s been known since at least 2001 that the refinery was contributing to sulfolane pollution in the North Pole. But in 2009, Flint Hills discovered levels of the chemical that were “significantly higher than expected,” and began notifying homeowners in the surrounding area. It began a process of cleaning up the groundwater, but the costs proved to be too much. Earlier this year, the company announced it would cease operations because of the “enormous” expense of cleaning up the sulfolane.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/04/3599276/north-pole-koch-lawsuit/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/04/3599276/north-pole-koch-lawsuit/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wehappyfew on December 04, 2014, 07:08:46 PM
Saudi Strategy:

I look at it this way... the rational Saudi strategy is to maximize their net revenue - over the life of their resources, discounted by the time-value of that revenue.

So higher prices now = best
Higher production now = best
Rapid production at moderate prices = good enough  .... (depletes quickly, but get money sooner)
Slow production at high prices = poor to fair  .......  (far future income gets a bigger time-value discount)
Leaving resources in the ground because no demand = terrible

Unfortunately (for the Saudis), the market became oversupplied due to slightly lower demand growth in the fast-growing markets (China, India SE Asia), recession in Japan and Europe, and higher efficiency vehicles mandated in US by Obama (thanks, Obama!)

Oversupplied for a second reason - US oil-shale frakking.

Nothing new there, we all know about those things. What can the Saudis do about it? One of two things must happen, they really have no choice - the oversupplied market, inelastic supply, inelastic demand they either:
1. Reduce output, keep prices up
2. Keep output up, accept lower price

Both are worse than status quo several months ago, but they can try to predict which will be better in the long run for their future output x price = revenue projections.

So I think they see the long run danger to be aggressive adoption of EV and hybrids that slash demand, combined with increasing US output. Imagine their nightmare scenario - US halves oil demand because of EVs and hybrids, while increasing output another 50%. That makes us a competitor instead of a customer!

Reducing output to maintain prices just hastens that nightmare's arrival, without any increase in short-term net revenue.

Lower prices/higher output still earns a decent net revenue for the Saudis (and only for the Saudis), while the frakkers wither and rust in the field, unable to repay their debts, unable to get financing for new drilling, and rapidly depleting their existing wells. EV adoption is delayed a few more years, weak economies get a small boost from lower energy costs, allowing at least some recovery of demand.

The new equilibrium may be at prices lower than $100/bbl - say it is $75 in the long run. Saudi's still make decent money, every other producer struggles, US frakkers may re-enter, but they will be much more conservative, maybe relying on cash-flow instead of debt/stock share financing.

The risk of another rapid oversupply situation is much lower, demand is boosted (although it may still continue falling, just not as fast), Saudis emerge as the only truly profitable supplier for decades to come. Their relative influence increases, even if their absolute net revenue declines slightly.

Is it possible the Saudis see it this way?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 04, 2014, 09:55:43 PM
Shale oil rigs move back to drilling for natural gas.  Or they get parked until needed then greased up and put back to work. IIRC when we hit a NG glut in the US many of the rigs rushed off to drill for oil.

Grab more market share by losing money.  Except when they get tired of losing money they raise their asking price and the next most expensive take market back.  They can only force others out by selling for less than the other players.  Were they to entirely collapse Venezuela, for example, once oil prices rose outside money would flow in and restart those oil fields.

Here are two more ideas that someone threw out.

1) Lower prices to stimulate demand. 

Kind of hard to see how.  Miles driven might go up some, but only while the price was low.  There's some elasticity in miles driven, prices go back up and people cut out unnecessary/lower priority driving. 

There could be a spike in inefficient car purchases but, in the US, CAFE standards would keep overall mileage ratings the same.  Manufacturers would have to offset by selling a larger number of efficient cars.  Once fuel prices went back up the inefficient vehicles would be driven less and there would be a  higher ratio of the most efficient cars on the road.

2)  Sell at a loss to stimulate the world's economy.

The Saudis are now so heavily invested in non-oil industries/companies that they want to give the world's economies a pick-me-up and increase their wealth in other sectors.  (Fun to imagine, but kind of a stretch.)


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 05, 2014, 04:40:57 PM
wehappyfew

Yes, you have hit the nail on the head.

It is easy for people to misunderstand the gravity of this situation.  The media promotes shallow thinking or none at all on matters like this.  So it is to be expected.

The financial destruction of an event like this is profound.  It is no simple matter to just pick up a couple of years later and resume where you were when you went bankrupt.  We are moving into a declining situation so that place you once were does not exist anymore.  The sweet spots will be used up, opposition due to various kinds of pollution effects will be greater, the easy money will likely not be there next time and more rigorous lending standards (actually using standards at all) will be in effect, and many other factors will also come into play.

And lest anyone think the shale gas (not oil) fracking boom will continue long  term (another point I have commented on here and elsewhere) it too is preparing to run down.  Here is a new rigorous analysis which backs up what a lot of us have been saying for a few years.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/new-study-says-us-fracking-boom-will-fall-quickly-after-2020.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/new-study-says-us-fracking-boom-will-fall-quickly-after-2020.html)

One thing to keep in mind also is that a significant tide of bankruptcies in the drilling firms working the shale 'oil' plays will take out shale 'gas' drilling capacity as well as many of the companies do both.  The vast majority of this kind of work is performed by relatively small companies (no Exxon's here)and when they go under it is hard to recreate them. The economics of gas fracking is less than robust also and suffers from many of the same well depletion, pollution, debt and price problems.  None of this boom would have happened if the big money had not been scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for very marginal returns because nothing else was providing the returns they were demanding.  Mountains of debt, churning stock values, lots of media propaganda, drawing in the suckers, no real profits... a classic bubble.

Everything gets harder going forward in time.  BAU whether green or black cannot continue and eventually it will not.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2014, 09:41:33 PM
Israel Hit With Massive 600,000 Gallon Oil Spill
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/04/3599861/israel-oil-spill/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/04/3599861/israel-oil-spill/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2014, 12:59:18 AM
Alaska cut taxes on oil companies to spur industry growth.  It didn't work.

Quote
Alaska is the only U.S. state with neither a state income tax nor a state sales tax. For revenue, it relies entirely on federal funding and various taxes on oil production in the state. Back in 2013, the oil taxes were cut by legislation passed under former Governor Sean Parnell (R). The logic of the cut was that it would spur renewed oil industry activity in the state, but that expected economic ferment has not materialized. And now, as the price of oil drops lower and lower, taking Alaska’s remaining tax revenue down with it, those cuts are leaving Alaska’s state budget deep in the red.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/05/3600190/alaska-oil-tax-budget-hole/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/05/3600190/alaska-oil-tax-budget-hole/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2014, 01:45:43 AM
Concerns about a Venezuelan default.
Quote
Falling oil prices have side-swiped Venezuela's government finances, spurring concerns of a sovereign default, but it isn't clear whether contagion effects will emerge.
...
"Given that the government has nothing in the way of savings from the oil price boom of the past decade, the loss of oil revenues will wipe out whatever foreign currency that the government has," it said. "With the bolivar collapsing in the black market, capital flight is only likely to increase putting even more pressure on the supply of hard currency."

It expects a default is "more likely than not" within two years, although there may not be a "flashpoint" until September or October of next year, when $5 billion of debt payments come due.

Unprepared

Among oil producing counties, Venezuela may be the worst prepared for lower oil prices, with dwindling reserves and a budget deficit of 17 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) . Oil accounts for 95 percent of Venezuela's export earnings and, combined with gas, it's 25 percent of the country's GDP. Rampant inflation has pushed consumer prices up as much as 50 percent a year, while currency controls have caused shortages of many consumer goods.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102238082 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102238082)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 08, 2014, 05:06:00 PM
The following is too long and complicated to excerpt, but if you want a good picture of the oil/gas debt in the US and how the bloodbath in that industry is headed it is a good primer.  Ugly is the word.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/ilargi-oil-shock-quantum-fragility.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/ilargi-oil-shock-quantum-fragility.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 08, 2014, 05:28:20 PM
And lest you think the Saudi's are not just like the typical hard nosed American capitalist here is some proof.

They are lowering their crude prices to American customers and raising them for Europeans.  Sounds just like John D. Rockefeller.

Sell at a loss to drive prices down so that your weak competitors who are already losing money get run out of business.  Raise your prices to those who have little choice but to buy from you.

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudis-Cut-Oil-Prices-Again-In-Bid-To-Maintain-Market-Share.html (http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudis-Cut-Oil-Prices-Again-In-Bid-To-Maintain-Market-Share.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 08, 2014, 06:42:07 PM
Lower your prices and lose a lot of money to drive your competition out of business. 

OK, that works if you are Walmart or Home Depot and then don't raise your prices down the road enough to let the "mom and pop" places to start back up.  But in the oil business if there's profit to be made then those old drilling rigs are going to be dusted off and be put back to work once the price comes up some more.

I'd understand it, I think, if the Saudis were cutting prices down below the most expensive providers but leaving themselves profitable. 

(I'm assuming they are actually losing money, not just losing potential revenue?)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jbatteen on December 08, 2014, 08:19:57 PM
Maybe the Saudis see that oil isn't going to last that much longer.  Maybe they think if they can ride this out, demand will soon be low enough that they will be the only cost effective producers on the market.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2014, 08:35:17 PM
Breaking news:  oil plunges to 5-year low.
Quote
WTI for January delivery dropped $2.38, or 3.6 percent, to $63.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after reaching $63.06, the lowest since July 2009. Volume was 4.5 percent above the 100-day average.

“The market continues to search for a bottom but it doesn’t feel like we’ve found one,” said Gene McGillian, a senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “You’ll continue to see longs exit the market. You don’t want to catch a falling knife.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-at-5-year-low-amid-concern-funds-may-resume-selling.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-at-5-year-low-amid-concern-funds-may-resume-selling.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2014, 09:05:37 PM
Is OPEC the new green?  Its recent moves make it a potent global anti-fracking force.
Quote
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for about 40 percent of global supplies, has maintained output in the face of an oil glut. The move has sent prices lower, challenging shale plays in the U.S., and the rest of the world where production is more costly.

A prolonged oil slump “could be a nail in the coffin” for some shale projects outside North America, Michiel Soeting, global chairman of energy and natural resources at KPMG LLP, said by phone from London. “It was already a question with high oil prices.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/global-shale-ambitions-wane-as-opec-price-war-deepens-oil-plunge.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/global-shale-ambitions-wane-as-opec-price-war-deepens-oil-plunge.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2014, 03:59:41 PM
Japan's next big thing?  Hydrogen fuel cells, for powering homes and businesses.  The waste heat from the reaction is used to heat water.
Quote
As fuel-cell technology finds its way into factories and commercial buildings, Japanese manufacturers including Panasonic Corp. (6752) are working to make them small and cheap enough for the home. The country has set a goal of installing them in 5.3 million homes by 2030, about 10 percent of all households.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/japan-promotes-home-fuel-cell-on-path-to-hydrogen-society.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/japan-promotes-home-fuel-cell-on-path-to-hydrogen-society.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2014, 04:21:17 PM
FIRED:  Texas Oil and Gas Regulators Say They Tried to Enforce Rules, Lost Jobs
http://books.insideclimatenews.org/fired (http://books.insideclimatenews.org/fired)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2014, 04:30:18 PM
From December 8:
Quote
Absent a move by OPEC, Raymond James Financial Inc. estimates that the expansion of U.S. production of liquids needs to slow from a current growth rate of around 1.5 million barrels per day to near zero in 2016 to balance the global market for oil.

Doing that would result in a 17 percent reduction in exploration and production spending next year and another 9 percent in 2016, according to Raymond James analyst J. Marshall Adkins and colleagues. The average annual U.S. drilling rig count would fall by 19 percent, or 348 rigs, in 2015 and another 11 percent the following year, the analysts wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-is-falling-knife-that-many-hands-are-trying-to-catch.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/oil-is-falling-knife-that-many-hands-are-trying-to-catch.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 09, 2014, 07:27:13 PM
Maybe the Saudis see that oil isn't going to last that much longer.  Maybe they think if they can ride this out, demand will soon be low enough that they will be the only cost effective producers on the market.

Then why sell at a loss now?  Demand will not vanish, just oil as industrial feedstock will mean that there will be demand for a long time.

I'd think it a better strategy to sell less for more right now and extend their supply far into the future.  Rather than lose money now, make some money and invest it in other industries for long term income.

Profits (normally) would be highest when demand is highest.  Higher demand means that the market has to pay the price of the most expensive provider whose output is required to meet demand.  All the less expensive providers get to sell at that highest cost provider number.

The only explanation for losing money now that I can see is to increase profits down the road.  And I can't find a 'down the road' scenario that makes sense to me.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 09, 2014, 07:34:15 PM
Japan's next big thing?  Hydrogen fuel cells, for powering homes and businesses.  The waste heat from the reaction is used to heat water.
Quote
As fuel-cell technology finds its way into factories and commercial buildings, Japanese manufacturers including Panasonic Corp. (6752) are working to make them small and cheap enough for the home. The country has set a goal of installing them in 5.3 million homes by 2030, about 10 percent of all households.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/japan-promotes-home-fuel-cell-on-path-to-hydrogen-society.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-09/japan-promotes-home-fuel-cell-on-path-to-hydrogen-society.html)

Take electricity, which is already scarce, and use it to produce/compress hydrogen, wasting a lot of energy in the process.  Then feed it into inefficient fuel cells when electricity is needed. 

That is not making sense to me.

If storage is the issue, Japan has a lot of PuHS they are no longer using since they've shut down their reactors.

Having watched the process in Japan since Fukushima, it seems to me that Japan has a problem of leadership latching on to an idea without thinking it through and everyone marches along in step with the "decision makers".

Nuclear was the idea until it blew up in their faces.  Now fuel cells are the idea.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 01:01:39 AM
Oil price continues to fall; nearing $60 as supply grows.
Quote
WTI Crude Declines as U.S. Inventories Grow; Brent Slides

West Texas Intermediate crude extended losses after the Energy Information Administration reported a gain in U.S. supply. Brent fell to a five-year low.

Crude inventories rose 1.45 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 5, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a drop of 2.7 million. Brent declined as OPEC said it expects demand for its crude next year to be the lowest since 2003.

Both Brent and WTI collapsed by about 15 percent after OPEC agreed to leave its production ceiling unchanged on Nov. 27, resisting calls from members including Venezuela to cut output to stabilize prices. Saudi Arabia and Iraq this month deepened discounts on crude exports to their customers in Asia, bolstering speculation that group members are fighting for market share.

WTI for January delivery fell $2.69, or 4.2 percent, to $61.13 a barrel at 10:37 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest level since July 2009.

Brent for January settlement decreased $2.56, or 3.8 percent, to $64.28 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after touching $64.23, the lowest since September 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/wti-crude-declines-as-u-s-inventories-grow-brent-slides.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/wti-crude-declines-as-u-s-inventories-grow-brent-slides.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 11, 2014, 03:00:33 AM
Quote
The Opec oil cartel no longer exists in any meaningful sense and crude prices will slump to $50 a barrel over the coming months as market forces shake out the weakest producers, Bank of America has warned.
Revolutionary changes sweeping the world’s energy industry will drive down the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG), creating a “multi-year” glut and a much cheaper source of gas for Europe.
Francisco Blanch, the bank’s commodity chief, said Opec is “effectively dissolved” after it failed to stabilize prices at its last meeting. “The consequences are profound and long-lasting,“ he said.
The free market will now set the global cost of oil, leading to a new era of wild price swings and disorderly trading that benefits only the Mid-East petro-states with deepest pockets such as Saudi Arabia. If so, the weaker peripheral members such as Venezuela and Nigeria are being thrown to the wolves.

Quote
Bank of America said the current slump will choke off shale projects in Argentina and Mexico, and will force retrenchment in Canadian oil sands and some of Russia’s remote fields.

Quote
It will take six months or so to whittle away the 1m barrels a day of excess oil on the market – with US crude falling to $50 - given that supply and demand are both “inelastic” in the short-run. That will create the beginnings of the next shortage. “We expect a pretty sharp rebound to the high $80s or even $90 in the second half of next year,” said Sabine Schels, the bank’s energy expert.

Quote
Mrs Schels said the global market for (LNG) will “change drastically” in 2015, going into a “bear market” lasting years as a surge of supply from Australia compounds the global effects of the US gas saga.
If the forecast is correct, the LNG flood could have powerful political effects, giving Europe a source of mass supply that can undercut pipeline gas from Russia. The EU already has enough LNG terminals to cover most of its gas needs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283875/Bank-of-America-sees-50-oil-as-Opec-dies.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11283875/Bank-of-America-sees-50-oil-as-Opec-dies.html)

There's more interesting stuff for those into economics.

Perhaps the Saudi loss acceptance is an attempt to punish other producers who failed to play the OPEC game.  That's the best explanation I've come up with to date.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 11, 2014, 08:14:18 PM
Bloomberg has an excellent slide show which summarizes US oil consumption and production.  It gives some insight to the apparent new reality for oil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/ (http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2014-america-shakes-off-oil-addiction/)

They've also published a piece on yesterday's market dump.  Energy stocks took a tumble.

There was some buying as oil stocks dropped 3% and it looks like some of the sell-off money was repositioned into retail stocks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/u-s-index-futures-gain-after-s-p-500-rout-as-oil-shares-rebound.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/u-s-index-futures-gain-after-s-p-500-rout-as-oil-shares-rebound.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 08:22:59 PM
And this:
How America Is Kicking Its Oil Habit
Quote
“Oil demand and GDP growth used to go hand in hand,” Christopher Knittel, a professor of applied economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, said by phone on Dec. 8 from Cambridge, Massachusetts. “Now, they’re in some ways almost independent of each other because of investments in fuel economy that tended to break the link.”
Quote
Here’s an easier way to see how Americans are relying less on oil: 1,178 barrels were consumed a day for every $1 billion of GDP in September, down 33 percent from 1,760 barrels a day 20 years ago.
Quote
And then there’s this twist in the energy independence story -- lower crude prices could paradoxically weaken demand. The argument goes like this: Declining oil will give consumers more disposable income that they can use to purchase more efficient vehicles, energy economist Philip Verleger said Dec. 8 by phone from Carbondale, Colorado. Likewise, airlines will reinvest profits made possible by cheaper fuel into new planes with more economic engines, he said.

“Consumers are doing their best to get themselves out of buying petroleum products,” Verleger said. “The fall in oil prices is going to accelerate the fuel’s own demise.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/america-getting-rid-of-oil-addiction-as-price-plummets-amid-glut.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/america-getting-rid-of-oil-addiction-as-price-plummets-amid-glut.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 09:43:23 PM
The Carbon Bubble is thinning....

Fed Bubble Bursts in $550 Billion of Energy Debt: Credit Markets
Quote
The danger of stimulus-induced bubbles is starting to play out in the market for energy-company debt.

Since early 2010, energy producers have raised $550 billion of new bonds and loans as the Federal Reserve held borrowing costs near zero, according to Deutsche Bank AG. With oil prices plunging, investors are questioning the ability of some issuers to meet their debt obligations. Research firm CreditSights Inc. predicts the default rate for energy junk bonds will double to eight percent next year.

“Anything that becomes a mania -- it ends badly,” said Tim Gramatovich, who helps manage more than $800 million as chief investment officer of Santa Barbara, California-based Peritus Asset Management. “And this is a mania.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/fed-bubble-bursts-in-550-billion-of-energy-debt-credit-markets.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 10:06:50 PM
Carbon bubble beginning to pop?

Quote
Venezuela Default Odds at 93% as Bonds Sink to 16-Year Low
Dec 11, 2014 11:44 AM ET
Swaps traders are almost certain that Venezuela will default as the rout in oil prices pressures government finances and sends bond prices to a 16-year low.
...
Maduro said in a televised speech Dec. 8 that credit-rating companies had imposed a “financial blockade” on Venezuela to prevent it from borrowing abroad.

“The bus is going downhill, and it doesn’t have brakes,” Ray Zucaro, who helps oversee about $450 million at SW Asset Management LLC, said in a telephone interview from Miami.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/venezuela-default-odds-at-94-as-bonds-sink-to-lowest-since-98.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/venezuela-default-odds-at-94-as-bonds-sink-to-lowest-since-98.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 10:15:27 PM
And this:

Quote
Norway Risks ‘Severe Downturn,’ Central Bank Governor Says

The governor of Norway’s central bank says western Europe’s biggest oil producer is facing a major economic slowdown as crude prices continue to plunge.

“Our job now is that we need to prevent a severe downturn in the economy,” Oeystein Olsen said today in an interview after a press conference in Oslo. “Overall, that is presently the major concern of the board. That explains why we have reduced the rate.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/-severe-downturn-threatening-norway-central-bank-governor-says.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/-severe-downturn-threatening-norway-central-bank-governor-says.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 11, 2014, 10:31:34 PM
Quote
more disposable income that they can use to purchase more efficient vehicles,

Let me refine that a bit.  With more disposable income in their pockets consumers will likely purchase more new vehicles.  And since our new vehicles are becoming more efficient every year demand will fall further.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2014, 01:46:29 AM
Oil Drops Below $60 After Saudis Question Need to Cut
Quote
“When you see a persistent trend like this you can be sure there are a lot of investors caught on the wrong side,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $2.4 billion, said by phone. “They are looking for any glimmer of green as an opportunity to get out of positions. Any moves higher will be of short duration.”
...
WTI for January delivery dropped 99 cents to close at $59.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement since July 14, 2009. Total volume was 14 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day. The U.S. benchmark is down 39 percent this year.
...
“When you see a persistent trend like this you can be sure there are a lot of investors caught on the wrong side,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $2.4 billion, said by phone. “They are looking for any glimmer of green as an opportunity to get out of positions. Any moves higher will be of short duration.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/wti-falls-to-5-year-low-as-saudis-question-need-to-cut.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/wti-falls-to-5-year-low-as-saudis-question-need-to-cut.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2014, 01:59:21 AM
Quote
Canada Heavy Oil Nearing $40 Threatens Oil Sands Projects

Canadian heavy crude fell to near $40 a barrel, threatening projects under construction as producers boosted output and space on a pipeline [...] was rationed.
...
Heavy West Canadian Select rose 82 cents to $43.01 a barrel after falling to $42.19 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since April 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Crude has fallen into a bear market as U.S. output surges to the highest in more than three decades. Calgary-based Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) said today it “substantially” slowed development plans at the Narrows Lake oil sands project. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has said it may scale back investment plans if oil prices remain near current levels.

“Any production that’s currently under construction is at risk, absolutely,” Dinara Millington, the vice president of research at Canadian Energy Research Institute in Calgary, said by phone. “Any production that’s currently existing can produce at $40 to $50.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/canada-heavy-oil-nearing-40-threatens-new-oil-sands-projects.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/canada-heavy-oil-nearing-40-threatens-new-oil-sands-projects.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 12, 2014, 04:26:40 PM
Quote
$550 Billion Energy Junk Bond Bubble Busts; "Whac-A-Mole" Distortions in Multiple Markets


The energy junk bond bubble has finally popped. Falling crude prices were the catalyst. Junk bonds of Energy XXI Ltd. plunged to 64 cents on the dollar from 106.3 cents since September. They now yield over 27%. Energy XXI Ltd. raised over $2 billion.


Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/550-billion-energy-junk-bond-bubble.html#EuqEZfX5vfkTYqzY.99 (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/550-billion-energy-junk-bond-bubble.html#EuqEZfX5vfkTYqzY.99)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/550-billion-energy-junk-bond-bubble.html (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/550-billion-energy-junk-bond-bubble.html)


In the meantime the American consumer is rushing out to buy huge numbers of gas guzzling pickups and large SUV's whose sales have jumped by 30% since fuel prices plumeted.  An environmental disaster that just keeps on giving for years.  Since it is looking like meeting fuel economy standards is going to be very difficult if not impossible I would expect our new Republican Congress to just change the law on that like they have done in the past.  Regulations mean less than nothing to them.

Cheers!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 12, 2014, 07:40:40 PM
Quote
In the meantime the American consumer is rushing out to buy huge numbers of gas guzzling pickups and large SUV's whose sales have jumped by 30% since fuel prices plumeted.

Just means that the car companies will have to figure out how to sell more high MPG cars and EVs in order to keep within their fleet mileage limits.

That drives development of more efficient ICEVs and EVs. 

Congress can't change laws on their own.  They have to either get the president to agree or find enough votes to override a presidential veto.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 12, 2014, 09:06:40 PM
Quote
In the meantime the American consumer is rushing out to buy huge numbers of gas guzzling pickups and large SUV's whose sales have jumped by 30% since fuel prices plumeted.

Just means that the car companies will have to figure out how to sell more high MPG cars and EVs in order to keep within their fleet mileage limits.

That drives development of more efficient ICEVs and EVs. 

Congress can't change laws on their own.  They have to either get the president to agree or find enough votes to override a presidential veto.

It most certainly does not mean that.

If the 'market' changes that much past history indicates that we will move the goal posts.  The incoming Congress is fundamentally opposed to these kinds of regulations and will be 'very' willing to take advise on their continued existence and let the 'invisible hand of the market'  determine the winners and losers in technology developments. 

This situation will dampen the sales of electric vehicles as can be seen already in current data.  That this will occur is just basic market behavior.  Dampened sales will absolutely not spur greater R&D development.  Such R&D will not change either way for a time as vehicle manufacturers do not ever change on a dime.  They will evaluate the market and make their determination on what to do based upon what they think is going to happen and on what effect they can have on that outcome through lobbying.   If prices stay low for a very long time then EV efforts will be scaled back somewhat.  If they do not the vehicle manufacturers will keep on the path they are on now.  A big push on ev's beyond where we are today is not too likely any time in the near future (5 years).

The important point in all these discussions is NOT how fast (slow would be a better word of course) we are ramping up ev sales as ev's will have no effect what-so-ever on our avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change.  Even if our entire vehicle fleet was electric it would not make a meaningful difference.

Now if we got rid of cars completely?....naw even that will not work.  We are well past any executable civilizational turning points.   That ship sailed some time ago.  We can choose to manage the collapse or not.

The problem to fix is 7.3 going on 9+ billion people.  Never forget that if everyone on Earth lived like the average African global human carbon emissions would still be near 10 Gtons.  And no one is going to agree to do that - ever.   If we cannot address the number 1 issue there is no solution to the problem.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 12, 2014, 10:37:40 PM
Quote
It most certainly does not mean that.

Do you not understand how CAFE standards work?

Quote
The incoming Congress is fundamentally opposed to these kinds of regulations

Do you not understand how legislation becomes law?

Quote
ev's will have no effect what-so-ever on our avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change.  Even if our entire vehicle fleet was electric it would not make a meaningful difference.

Can you possibly believe that?  If you do, please explain why you think it true.

Quote
The problem to fix is 7.3 going on 9+ billion people.

How do you propose dropping population numbers quickly?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2014, 11:12:50 PM
Wow, Venezuela's economy is a mess, and low oil prices could be the tipping point.  Oil provides 95% of its export revenue.  It burned through 2 billion dollars in Chinese loans last month.  Odds of defaulting on bond payments are 94%.
And:
Quote
The nation -- which imports 75 percent of its goods -- is plagued by chronic shortages of everything from milk to toilet paper amid the world’s fastest inflation. The economy is expected to shrink 3 percent this year and another 1.5 percent in 2015, according to the median estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The video link in the article has further discussion on what might happen next.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/venezuela-s-got-21-billion-owes-21-billion-as-crisis-builds.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/venezuela-s-got-21-billion-owes-21-billion-as-crisis-builds.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2014, 12:45:51 AM
@breakingmoney: Crude oil settles below $58 for the first time since May 2009 - @CNBCnow http://t.co/svOkZp9kNX (http://t.co/svOkZp9kNX)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 13, 2014, 12:52:32 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2Fnymex-crude-oil-future-chart.gif&hash=eb6e591027954bae4d9380a95dee25ed) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/nymex-crude-oil-future-chart.gif.html)

It will be interesting to see how things play out from here.  Another quick recovery or a new era of less valuable oil?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 13, 2014, 12:57:36 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2F2014-12-12OilPrice.png&hash=acdc4f252d0578daa90f4d66a579bf83) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/2014-12-12OilPrice.png.html)

This one is more current.  And closing prices, not futures.  Adjusted for inflation.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2014, 01:17:44 AM
Bloomberg TV video: "Saudis playing chicken..."
 http://t.co/sKXChTruGI (http://t.co/sKXChTruGI) 

Gary Schilling: Saudis won't change their tack until oil price is around $20 to $30 per barrel.
There's no bottom in sight.

Michael Wolf:  We're assuming the price reverts to the mean.  What evidence do we have that the price will go back up?

?:  None.  But never is a long time.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2014, 01:28:18 AM
Halliburton Cuts 1,000 Employees as Sanctions Slow Russia
Quote
Political turmoil from Russia to West Africa helped push 1,000 workers out of their jobs at the world’s largest fracking company.

Halliburton Co. (HAL) plans to make the job cuts immediately in the Eastern Hemisphere as it strives to cope with an industry fallout brought on by oil prices at a five-year low, the Houston-based company said in a statement yesterday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/halliburton-cuts-1-000-employees-as-sanctions-slow-russia.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/halliburton-cuts-1-000-employees-as-sanctions-slow-russia.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2014, 01:35:44 AM
U.S. Stocks Tumble to Cap Dow’s Worst Week Since 2011
Quote
More than $1 trillion was erased from the value of global equities this week as oil prices tumbled, raising concern over the strength of the global economy. Oil extended losses today amid speculation that OPEC’s biggest members will defend market share against U.S. shale producers. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand for the fourth time in five months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/u-s-index-futures-fall-after-s-p-500-rebound-as-oil-outlook-cut.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/u-s-index-futures-fall-after-s-p-500-rebound-as-oil-outlook-cut.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 13, 2014, 01:45:05 AM
I'm starting to favor - Saudis are whipping the other oil producers so they will get back in line.  Everyone cut production enough to support a return to higher prices.

I'm not sure they can control US and Canadian production like they can "government oil companies".  The US and Canadian stuff may be lost market.

They might be able to lock prices high, but low enough to keep much new production from coming on line.  This could take a year.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 13, 2014, 01:53:41 AM
At least solar panels don't explode....

Why a Pipeline Explosion in Turkey Matters to the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/the-map-that-shows-why-a-pipeline-explosion-in-turkey-matters-to-the-u-s-.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/the-map-that-shows-why-a-pipeline-explosion-in-turkey-matters-to-the-u-s-.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 13, 2014, 04:30:33 PM
Quote
It most certainly does not mean that.

Do you not understand how CAFE standards work?

Quote
The incoming Congress is fundamentally opposed to these kinds of regulations

Do you not understand how legislation becomes law?

Quote
ev's will have no effect what-so-ever on our avoiding the catastrophic effects of climate change.  Even if our entire vehicle fleet was electric it would not make a meaningful difference.

Can you possibly believe that?  If you do, please explain why you think it true.

Quote
The problem to fix is 7.3 going on 9+ billion people.

How do you propose dropping population numbers quickly?

Oh please!  A little education is in order.

If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

But I understand where you are at.  It goes to the quote that appears at the end of all my posts.  "We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or one could use a modified version of the Sinclair quote about not being able to understand something because ones way of life depends on not understanding it.

Civilization is deep in the 5 stages of grief and each individual takes their own path.  We see many each day who are still in stages 1 and 2 - Denial and Anger.  Others fall into 3,  Bargaining - faith in techno-optimism. You might look in the mirror about now. Some have reached Stage 4 and are depressed and appear to have given up - but they are of course further on in the process of becoming healthy once again.  And a small few have Accepted reality and want to move on with life and deal with the real problems.

If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.  I have made a number of suggestions here and elsewhere about how to make progress on the fundamental problem - population is the disease, climate change is the symptoms.  It is truly a very hard problem.  But running from a problem solves nothing.  Since I have already stepped up to the plate on this issue many times --- it is YOUR turn to step up.

You tell us how you would fix it.  I promise to treat you just as well as I was treated.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 13, 2014, 06:34:19 PM
Quote
If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Here's the history, Jim.  Find me a place where standards were dialed back other than a couple of minor temporary (one year) adjustments back before 1990.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Standards_by_model_year.2C_1978-2011 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_Average_Fuel_Economy#Standards_by_model_year.2C_1978-2011)


Quote
Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

BAU is driving ICEVs powered by petroleum. 

EVs charged with renewable energy take the carbon out of personal transportation.

Quote
"We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or we err because we fail to understand the facts.

Quote
If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.

I agree that population is a large part of our problem.  Were there only a few million of us on the planet we could burn coal and oil without having a noticeable effect on our climate.

I absolutely disagree with your belief that it will be impossible to minimize climate change without drastically lowering population numbers.  Totally disagree.

But since you believe that our only way to avoid extreme climate change I will ask you again to address the question. 

Jim, what is your plan to drop the world's population by a very significant number by 2030?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 14, 2014, 01:28:57 AM
Oh please!  A little education is in order.

If you would take some time and review the history of fuel efficiency standards in the US over the last 45 years, their limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects it would illuminating.  You might - or rather should be - a little embarrassed by your first 2 comments.  Clueless is a good description.

Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption.  Not to mention dealing with climate change. EV's are just a form of kicking the can down the road.  BAU.

But I understand where you are at.  It goes to the quote that appears at the end of all my posts.  "We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn"

Or one could use a modified version of the Sinclair quote about not being able to understand something because ones way of life depends on not understanding it.

Civilization is deep in the 5 stages of grief and each individual takes their own path.  We see many each day who are still in stages 1 and 2 - Denial and Anger.  Others fall into 3,  Bargaining - faith in techno-optimism. You might look in the mirror about now. Some have reached Stage 4 and are depressed and appear to have given up - but they are of course further on in the process of becoming healthy once again.  And a small few have Accepted reality and want to move on with life and deal with the real problems.

If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem.  I have made a number of suggestions here and elsewhere about how to make progress on the fundamental problem - population is the disease, climate change is the symptoms.  It is truly a very hard problem.  But running from a problem solves nothing.  Since I have already stepped up to the plate on this issue many times --- it is YOUR turn to step up.

You tell us how you would fix it.  I promise to treat you just as well as I was treated.

Ain't that the truth! To me, reading such a brilliant summary is worth all the endless threads of techno–optimist hopium.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 14, 2014, 01:55:52 AM
If that's the truth then please give us the history of "limits going both up and down due to various forms of lobbying and economic effects".

Give us a cogent explanation of why "Your opinions and comments about the value of ev's are way out of whack with the reality of physics, engineering and resource consumption. "
 
Then explain to us why "If you do not fix overpopulation it is not possible to fix any climate change problem."

Since you support these claims it should take little effort for you to explain the basis for your opinion.


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 14, 2014, 02:46:05 AM
Bob, I believe I've reached the 5th stage and have Accepted reality, which is probably why I started the Optimism thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1009.0).

I'm not focusing much on the population part of it, but I don't doubt the experts when they say that's the core problem. Now, the usual shoot–from–the–hip reply to all talk about population being the problem, is 'who should go' and 'who would you kill'. Being at the 5th stage I'm more like 'pop will eat itself', ie the issue will be solved by MN before any body of humans has decided on a way to deal with the problem.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 14, 2014, 03:19:37 AM
So, viddaloo, what you are saying is that your agreement with Jim was not, after all, an agreement?  That it was just a group of words you posted with the intent that they should not be construed to infer your opinion?

When you wrote "To me, reading such a brilliant summary is worth all the endless threads of techno–optimist hopium." you were lying?

Help us out here.  Your behavior is most confusing.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 14, 2014, 04:18:53 AM
My pleasure, Bob: As usual, I find someone's analysis wise and truthful, yet disagree with their solutions or suggestions. Those are two separate things. (For instance, communists may write a good critique of capitalism, but you wouldn't want the sort of society they suggest.)

In this case, I fail to see humanity seated at a negotiation table (like now in Lima, Peru) discussing the brutal decimation of world populations. In Norway's 7–party parliament, for instance, none of them will headline 'brutal depopulation' for the upcoming 2017 general elections. That's just the way politics works. So I can agree with JimD that our vast numbers are probably the core problem, without seeing a fix to climate problems ever coming through human efforts to adjust to reality when it comes to our own numbers. (At least not overtly. There's rumour and speculation on the Interwebs about covert programs to reduce population — elsewhere, of course — so this would be the way to 'fix it', although I, personally, do not support the spread of diseases and pests for this purpose.)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 14, 2014, 04:31:49 AM
Bull.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2014, 08:50:19 PM
Is $40 Oil Coming?  Very likely yes.
Quote
...The posted price of Williston Basin Sweet crude was reported at $41.44 on Friday, while Williston Basin Sour went for $49.25 a barrel. These two are the grades of crude produced in North Dakota’s Bakken shale play.

The posted price by Plains Marketing, a division of Plains All American Pipeline LP (NYSE: PAA), for WTI outside the Permian Basin was $54.25 and the highest price of all, for Louisiana Light Sweet was just $54.50. The posted price is what Plains is offering to pay producers and provides a good indicator of market direction in the U.S.

As prices for Brent and WTI fall below $50, prices for Bakken crude are going to settle below $50 and if Brent falls below $50, well, then things could get a lot more interesting for Bakken crude.

No one knows for sure what will happen. When crude fell to below $40 a barrel in 2009, horizontal drilling and fracking made only modest contributions to U.S. oil production. North Dakota produced an average of 218,000 barrels a day in 2009 compared with more than 1 million barrels in 2014.
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/12/14/is-40-oil-coming/ (http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/12/14/is-40-oil-coming/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2014, 09:04:47 PM
Bakken oil pipeline project slammed shut
Quote
Enterprise Products Partners is shelving a proposed pipeline that would have transported crude from North Dakota to Oklahoma, the company announced on Friday.
...
Enterprise Products—a publicly traded partnership designed to provide financing on oil and gas infrastructure projects — said in a terse statement that investors had "decided not to move forward with development of its proposed Bakken to Cushing crude oil pipeline."
...
Infrastructure partnerships such as Enterprise Products' have raised billions in private capital, in expectation that the U.S.' growing energy independence would create more opportunities to transport domestically produced oil and gas. With Enterprise's actions, that assumption appears in some doubt.

"It's a clear indication that the lowering of oil prices and the dialing down of crude demand for 2015 is taking its toll," said Vincent DeVito, partner at the law firm of Bowditch & Dewey.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102265279 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102265279)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2014, 05:15:40 PM
Great news!  All we have to do to stop global warming is draw a lower trend line! 
Oh, wait, deniers already have that covered....  Sorry!  ;-)

Quote
“I keep drawing trendlines on my charts that I believe will help boost [oil] prices but, so far, they have easily given way to the selling pressure each and every time,” Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/chart-watchers-transfixed-as-oil-trend-lines-die-one-b.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/chart-watchers-transfixed-as-oil-trend-lines-die-one-b.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 15, 2014, 07:56:51 PM
Quote
The 28% drop in the US average retail price of gasoline since 23 June may not have much effect on automobile travel, and in turn, gasoline consumption, according to an analysis by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline is a relatively inelastic product—i.e., changes in prices have little influence on demand—and has become more so over the past few decades.

Quote
Price elasticity measures the responsiveness of demand to changes in price. Almost all price elasticities are negative—i.e., an increase in price leads to lower demand, and vice versa. Air travel, especially for vacation, tends to be highly elastic: a 10% increase in the price of air travel leads to an even greater (more than 10%) decrease in the amount of air travel. Price changes have greater effects if the changes persist over time, as opposed to being temporary shocks.

Automobile travel in the United States is much less elastic, and its price elasticity has fallen in recent decades. The price elasticity of motor gasoline is currently estimated to be in the range of -0.02 to -0.04 in the short term—it takes a 25% to 50% decrease in the price of gasoline to raise automobile travel 1%.

In the mid 1990s, the price elasticity for gasoline was higher, around -0.08, meaning it only took a 12% decrease in the price of gasoline to raise automobile travel by 1%.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/12/20141215-eiagasoline.html (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/12/20141215-eiagasoline.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2014, 01:44:53 AM
​"Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed."
Quote
...It's only a small simplification, you see, to say that Russia doesn't so much have an economy as it has an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else.
Quote
The latest news is that Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further. It's a desperate move to save Russia's currency that comes at the cost of sacrificing Russia's economy. So even if it "works," things are about to get a lot worse.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2014, 04:07:17 PM
Financial writers:  low oil prices may lead to oil industry job cuts, civil unrest, and changes in national interest rate plans.

Quote
Two key Fed officials said earlier this month that the drop in energy prices was a good thing because it should help lift consumer spending. But with prices plummeting even further since then, Krosby said the Fed may have to reevaluate that argument.
"You can look at how lower oil helps the U.S. economy, but this is not an equation that's equal on both sides. It could be a sign of weakness in Europe, China and Japan. Plus, you are starting to hear about domestic job cuts in the energy industry," she said.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/15/investing/federal-reserve-oil-interest-rates/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/15/investing/federal-reserve-oil-interest-rates/index.html)
Quote
Without supply disruptions or a cut in OPEC output, that means oil storage in the West could be full to overflowing next year.
That all adds up to a pretty grim outlook for poorer exporting nations, whose economies rely heavily on energy.
"The resulting downward price pressure would raise the risk of social instability or financial difficulties if producers found it difficult to pay back debt," the agency said.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-iea-unrest/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-iea-unrest/index.html)
Quote
According to Fatima Iqbal of Azzad Asset Management, over 15% of total employment gains since the beginning of 2008 have come from the energy industry, even though it is less than 1% of the country's job base.
"A prolonged slump in energy may endanger these jobs," she said.
Fadel Gheit, an oil and gas analyst at Oppenheimer and Co., is far more pessimistic. He thinks a lot of energy companies are out of touch with reality.
"Everybody is talking about $75 oil...maybe they're living on another planet," he said. Oil is currently trading around $58.
His reasoning: Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, is now basing its national budget on $60 oil. Kuwait, another heavy hitter in the cartel, is budgeting for $55. That means they're digging in for the long haul.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-job-cuts/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/oil-prices-job-cuts/index.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2014, 10:19:07 PM

And.... Dubai's stock market loses 33% in 30 days. Graph: http://t.co/w53qsX8YYo (http://t.co/w53qsX8YYo)
Quote
Dubai’s index declined 28 percent since the end of November and is poised for the worst month in more than six years. Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), the developer of the world’s tallest tower in Dubai, plunged 10 percent, the maximum allowed in a day. It closed at 6.12 dirhams, erasing gains this year.

The ADX General Index in Abu Dhabi, home to almost 6 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, retreated 6.9 percent, the most since November 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/dubai-stocks-lead-gcc-declines-as-global-markets-oil-retreat.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/dubai-stocks-lead-gcc-declines-as-global-markets-oil-retreat.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on December 17, 2014, 01:06:39 AM
The largest vessel the world has ever seen
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2014, 02:47:03 PM
Quote
After the single worst day in Russia’s nine-month-old financial crisis, the fallout is spreading across global markets.

Pacific Investment Management Co. (PEBIX) is facing mounting losses on its Russian bond holdings; almost every bullish ruble option contract registered in the U.S. has been made worthless; and foreign-exchange brokers in New York and London told clients they’re no longer taking ruble trades. Sergey Shvetsov, a first deputy central bank governor, expressed astonishment at the scope of the collapse during a conference in Moscow.
...
Pimco Losses

Pimco’s $3.3 billion Emerging Markets Bond Fund has been one of the hardest hit. It held $803 million of Russian corporate and sovereign bonds at the end of September, equal to 21 percent of total assets, an amount that’s more than double that of the benchmark it tracks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The fund has lost 7.9 percent in the past month, trailing 95 percent of its peers.
...
Every single other contract is now out-of-the-money because they gave traders the right to buy the ruble at exchange rates that are stronger than yesterday’s closing level, according to data compiled by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. from clients of U.S. banks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/russia-crisis-hits-pimco-fund-wipes-out-options-as-ruble-sinks.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 18, 2014, 01:03:11 AM
Big news!
Cuomo to Ban Fracking in New York State, Citing Health Risks
Quote
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s administration announced on Wednesday that it would ban hydraulic fracturing in New York State because of concerns over health risks, ending years of uncertainty over the disputed method of natural gas extraction.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/nyregion/cuomo-to-ban-fracking-in-new-york-state-citing-health-risks.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/nyregion/cuomo-to-ban-fracking-in-new-york-state-citing-health-risks.html)

@bobbymagill: Correction in @nytimes fracking ban story says fracking not used for oil extraction. That's not true.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 18, 2014, 02:52:27 PM
Big engineering!

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30394137)

Quote
The largest vessel the world has ever seen

Prelude is a staggering 488m long and the best way to grasp what this means is by comparison with something more familiar.

Four football pitches placed end-to-end would not quite match this vessel's length - and if you could lay the 301m of the Eiffel Tower alongside it, or the 443m of the Empire State Building, they wouldn't do so either.

In terms of sheer volume, Prelude is mind-boggling too: if you took six of the world's largest aircraft carriers, and measured the total amount of water they displaced, that would just about be the same as with this one gigantic vessel.....

Hence Prelude will become the world's first floating LNG plant - or FLNG in the terminology of the industry....



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 18, 2014, 11:46:44 PM
Quote
There are zombies in the oil fields.

After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead -- still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela.

In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields -- excluding U.S. shale -- and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it.

Quote
A pause in exploration and development may sound like good news for investors concerned about climate change. A vocal minority have been warning for years that potentially trillions of dollars of untapped assets may become stranded due to climate policies and improved energy efficiency. The challenges faced by oil developers today may provide a small sense of what's to come.

However, these glut-driven prices can’t stay low forever. Oil production hasn’t slowed yet, but as zombie projects go unfunded, it will. This is how the boom-bust-boom of the oil market goes: prices fall, then production follows, pushing prices higher again. The longer this standoff goes, the more zombies will languish and the sharper the rebounding price spike may be.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/bankers-see-1-trillion-of-investments-stranded-in-the-oil-fields.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/bankers-see-1-trillion-of-investments-stranded-in-the-oil-fields.html)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 19, 2014, 10:09:41 PM
Saudi Arabia: no change in their oil output foreseen for months; other producers be damned.
Quote
In a situation like this, it is difficult, if not impossible, that the kingdom or OPEC would carry out any action that may result in a reduction of its share in market and an increase of others’ shares,” Al-Naimi said, according to the state-run news agency. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, will stick to its oil policies, he said.
...
OPEC won’t change its output level and isn’t planning an emergency meeting [to consider changes] before the next scheduled gathering on June 5, he said.
Quote
“How hard will Saudi work to bring prices down really fast?” Jamie Webster, a Washington-based senior director for global oil markets at IHS Inc., said on Twitter. “Answer appears to be ‘very.’”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-difficult-for-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-difficult-for-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 19, 2014, 10:23:24 PM
Putin is in for a lot of buttache.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 20, 2014, 02:31:11 PM
Tumbling oil prices have exposed a weakness in the insurance that some U.S. shale drillers bought to protect themselves against a crash.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-19/oil-crash-exposes-shale-drillers-in-risky-three-way-bets.html?hootPostID=8602071170966cf5ca551b53c8ee2e7a (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-19/oil-crash-exposes-shale-drillers-in-risky-three-way-bets.html?hootPostID=8602071170966cf5ca551b53c8ee2e7a)

Video discussion: even opening U.S. oil for exporting will not help raise low oil prices.  Other countries do not use the U.S. light crude, and right now, the problem is all about oversupply, not demand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-market-amrita-sen-on-prices-energy-m-a-outlook-ikzOQhwtQvqEz8yzJgN5VQ.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-market-amrita-sen-on-prices-energy-m-a-outlook-ikzOQhwtQvqEz8yzJgN5VQ.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 20, 2014, 07:11:32 PM
Bull.

Since we have reached this point I will be equally frank.

I think you are either a complete idiot or here deliberately trying to keep change from happening.  You ignore the realities of facts and science, and demonstrate no capability of logical reasoning.  And are seemingly ignorant of how humans make decisions and can be manipulated.  It is hard to see how one could actually arrive where you seem to sit without deliberateness being involved.

Are you one of the paid shills for the various BAU crowds?  If I went to wattsupwiththat would i find a few hundred lunatic posts of yours there?

I long ago started skipping over almost all of your posts.  It will be 100% from this date forward.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 20, 2014, 07:21:34 PM
Jim, I started to write a reply to your comment.  It just seems so unnecessary.

I'm sorry I can't write things you want to hear.  Best you ignore my comments.


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 20, 2014, 11:45:41 PM
Bull.

Since we have reached this point I will be equally frank.

I think you are either a complete idiot or here deliberately trying to keep change from happening.  You ignore the realities of facts and science, and demonstrate no capability of logical reasoning.  And are seemingly ignorant of how humans make decisions and can be manipulated.  It is hard to see how one could actually arrive where you seem to sit without deliberateness being involved.

Are you one of the paid shills for the various BAU crowds?  If I went to wattsupwiththat would i find a few hundred lunatic posts of yours there?

I long ago started skipping over almost all of your posts.  It will be 100% from this date forward.

JimD, the current popular green policy myth says we all have to stay positive the entire time in order to change the world into a more sustainable place. My guess is that Bob here is attempting to do just that, stay positive. Naturally, such attempts will seem increasingly desperate in the eyes of more realistic observers, but I don't think there's any reason for suspecting foul play in this case. The psychology of staying positive at any cost more than adequately explains this, IMO.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 21, 2014, 12:11:58 AM
And I'll repeat myself, Vid.

Bull.

If you can't see what is happening the real world that is  your problem.  We have now developed the technology we need to get off fossil fuels.  And we're moving quickly into the implementation phase.

Does this mean that we will stop climate change overnight?  Of course not.  No one has made that claim.

Does this mean that we will absolutely avoid extreme climate change and live happily ever after?  Of course not.  No one has made that claim.
---

Is there a small portion of the population that loves to wallow in misery so much that they create misery for themselves?  That's an interesting question.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 21, 2014, 12:23:39 AM
Bob,

I salute you for staying positive, so no bad feelings. OK? It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1009.0.html), such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on December 21, 2014, 12:48:13 AM
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014 (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014)

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 21, 2014, 01:22:58 AM
Quote
It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread, such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.

So, since you won't allow yourself to see a way out of the mess we've created you appoint yourself the ultimate judge and call for a crash and a terrible future for  humans and most of the plant and animal species on Earth.

Sorry, but I think you foolish.

'Tis a dark world you inhabit....
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 21, 2014, 06:17:48 AM
Quote
It's just that more realistic vantage points imply an era of very dense darkness for civilization and all of humanity, although, as we have discussed in the Optimist thread, such a crash may be the best hope for the biosphere over all.

So, since you won't allow yourself to see a way out of the mess we've created you appoint yourself the ultimate judge and call for a crash and a terrible future for  humans and most of the plant and animal species on Earth.

Sorry, but I think you foolish.

'Tis a dark world you inhabit....

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.uniqueteachingresources.com%2Fimages%2FTurtleStickerChartQuote1.jpg&hash=48545c474d66637c91051afa4a3fcfea)

Bob,

I agree such a complete crash of civilization is an unpleasant thought and that it would be more gay to actually believe that the turtle–pace of present polluticians would nevertheless suffice to turn society around 180° in time to avoid a runaway Greenhouse situation with massive CH₄ releases.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 21, 2014, 07:07:29 AM
I suppose one could just grab an available belief from here or there as they felt a need.

I prefer to look at what is currently happening.  I'm sort of into letting facts do the steering....
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2014, 05:17:33 PM
Saudi Arabia:  other countries should reduce their oil output.
Quote
“Irresponsible production from outside OPEC is behind the fall in prices,” Mazrouei said. “We call on all other producers to stop the increase.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-21/non-opec-producers-called-on-to-cut-oil-output-amid-oversupply.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 23, 2014, 04:31:06 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/saudis-tell-shale-industry-will-break-plans-keep-pumping-even-20-barrel.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/saudis-tell-shale-industry-will-break-plans-keep-pumping-even-20-barrel.html)

So the Saudi's have thrown down the gauntlet.  They have publically stated that they are going to return the market to a more competitive one and drive the high cost producers out.  Since the US no longer has any real ability to force the Saudi's to their will one can expect that this big dip in prices will last for some time.  In other words much longer than the paid shills spouting nonsense from the media and investment houses.

Oil shale operations in the US are going to get hammered, tar sands production in Canada, a number of countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, Russian are going to have real problems, deep water drilling will be unprofitable and so on.  If Saudi can keep prices low for a year it will remake the oil industry for a long time.  Boom then bust.

There will be big knock off effects that have large impacts re various countries economies as well as a host of impacts related to climate change.  This kind of event will precipitate many kinds of negative political changes.  Especially here in the US.  We are already seeing significant increases in new sales of large vehicles, flat sales of ev's, strong indications that there will be much greater political resistance to many policies directed at mitigating climate change and environmental damage.  Much cheaper fossil fuel prices will help to keep demand from plummeting even in the face of what looks like a probable global slowdown in the short term.

All in all not a good situation if dealing with climate change is high on ones radar.   
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 23, 2014, 04:58:38 PM
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014 (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014)

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?

I basically disagree Wili.

Renewables are still struggling mightily. They face a host of headwinds that range from the pure economic competitiveness issue, to infrastructure issues, to resource issues, to political resistance, to the scale required to achieve replacement levels, to the fact that they are not yet being used to replace fossil capabilities in any meaningful way.  Add to all of that a worsening political situation re their continued large scale government support needed (and not just in the US either) and what will happen as the next global economic downturn demonstrates our worsening ability to apply vast resources oriented towards change.  We are on the downslope now and the one certain trend is that it will be harder to pay for and implement all forms of change and each succeeding day will make it worse.  The apparent easy and popular path will always be BAU.  No politician will choose differently. 

So we will not choose to make a massive move into renewables.  Rather we will putsz along as we are now sort of balancing different versions of BAU until we collapse.  And let us not forget that we could not even come close to running the scale and type of civilization we have today on power systems based solely upon renewables (that green bau I talk about all the time).

Just to reiterate and to keep the focus where it should be and not on peripheral issues like renewables and crude oil - the real problem is population levels.  There is no significant climate change problem nor civilizational collapse problem that can be solved if the overwhelmingly number one cause of our problems is ignored just because many find it distasteful. 

I would ask the question "Are we really such cowards?" but since we have repeatedly proven that we are there is no need to ask. 

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on December 23, 2014, 05:41:50 PM
I prefer to look at what is currently happening.  I'm sort of into letting facts do the steering....

Always the best tactic! I'm sure you know that looking at what is currently happening and letting facts do the steering is what makes honest observers state that we have a Business As Usual (BAU) emissions path, virtually unbroken, and that will last long into the future (if we have any left of that future stuff).

Longtime observers of climate change policy often don't believe a word polluticians say, and this distrust is largely caused by observing climate change policy over long periods of time. For people who distrust the pollutocrats, climate talks are more about markets, growth and public perception management, or PR. The BAU will go on until it no longer goes on.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 23, 2014, 07:41:54 PM
Here's the BAU for global solar -

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FGlobalSolarThrough2013.png&hash=7807157a6f61de71130ef3dcf4b0482f) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/GlobalSolarThrough2013.png.html)

Here's the BAu for global wind -

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FGlobalWindInstalled2013.png&hash=a6ddebfa5db2f090ad7b18b23fb057a9) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/GlobalWindInstalled2013.png.html)

The cowards are installing solar and wind at accelerating rates. 

Gosh, Jim, I don't understand why you and vid don't hold hands and jump off something tall.  Yours is such a miserable future, I don't know how you hang on.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 24, 2014, 03:53:37 PM
Now we are seeing a big plunge in natural gas prices.  Like oil shale the gas shale fracking also suffers from a host of technical problems and high costs. And thusly has the same debt issues.  It appears the chickens are finally coming home to roost here.

Note that extremely low natural gas prices also have even more of the negatives for renewables than low oil prices.  This will deepen the bust in the oil and gas sector. 

Quote
As one private equity insider wrote in June, ironically just before oil priced peaked:

I have been digging underneath the surface (pun was not originally intended) of these let us call them fracking E&P companies and I was pretty surprised. Many of the bigger ones have not made money the last few years. Sitting in a bar over dinner I got to talking to a petroleum landman and he basically told me they have to keep drilling or if they stop they will not get started again (Red Queen effect). The reason is these wells deplete so quickly that the economics have been hidden by artificially high reserve reports. This whole process got started by someone telling me they had reserves worth $600 million but after long discussions I saw there financials and they were losing there ass even with full cost accounting which is the most aggressive.

Well worth a complete read.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/first-oil-now-us-natural-gas-plunges-negative-igniter-for-new-debt-crisis.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/first-oil-now-us-natural-gas-plunges-negative-igniter-for-new-debt-crisis.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on December 24, 2014, 05:57:39 PM
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014 (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-12-19/the-oil-price-crash-of-2014)

Heinberg on The Oil Price Crash of 2014

I'm a bit disappointed that he didn't talk about the possible impacts on renewables. I've heard some comments that it will hurt them, but that doesn't seem very likely to me, since they mostly (except for bio-ethonol) don't directly compete (EV's still being a relatively tiny part of the market, and petrol can't compete there anyway).

Thoughts?

Wili, you are exactly right and the CEO of SolarCity was on the t.v. stating basically the exact same.  The current cause of high electricity prices is due to stranded costs of power generation and distribution systems.  The increase in future electricity prices is based on repair/replacement of these systems and the increased price point needed to continue to pay back the utility's of the world for their previous investments as increased energy efficiency leads to lower energy intensity economies (KWh per unit GDP), as well as the implementation of private solar.

With less people paying into the pot, the utility's will get higher rates to ensure that their stranded costs are covered with a nice "reasonable" rate of return.

oil prices has nothing to do with this unless you live on a small tropical island.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on December 24, 2014, 06:01:40 PM
Has anyone here considered that this response by the Saudis would naturally follow if they believed that global regulatory or market actions were going to lead to a substantial amount of proven reserves being left in the ground in the mid/near future?

Under that scenario, they would want to drive down prices to a point where they can maximize their total volume sales before the spigot is cut off.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on December 24, 2014, 06:51:25 PM
Thanks, all, for the discussion.

jai, in your last phrase, do you mean that the spigot will be cut off by peak oil or by restrictions on carbon-based fuels?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 24, 2014, 09:07:49 PM
The most realistic explanation I've read is that the Saudis are willing to take a short term loss in order to force other producers to cut output and keep prices high in the long run.  Sell less for more means good profits and supply lasts longer.  There will be demand for oil far into the future, as industrial feedstock if nothing else.
--

Price drops in NG are likely to be short lived.  As winter sets in demand will take prices back up.  As we complete more shipping infrastructure US NG prices will rise to match global prices. 
--

Utilities are not likely to get big rate increases to cover stranded costs.  For the most part those are old coal plants which have already been written off (depreciated) and have no book value. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 25, 2014, 06:26:57 AM
Don't forget the geopolitical angle:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/opinion/thomas-friedman-a-pump-war.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/opinion/thomas-friedman-a-pump-war.html?_r=0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/opinion/thomas-friedman-is-vacation-over.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/24/opinion/thomas-friedman-is-vacation-over.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2014, 05:45:34 PM
With comments like these, you have to believe the Saudis know the game is over for oil, and they are moving on.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/saudi-oil-minister-100-dollar-oil/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/23/news/economy/saudi-oil-minister-100-dollar-oil/index.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on December 25, 2014, 06:00:29 PM
If the Saudis were approaching peak oil, they would want to allow oil prices to go up as high as possible and sell off their remaining stocks.

If the Saudis had lots of oil but believed that the effects of climate change were going to soon cause geopolitical restrictions (or even massive market-based restrictions or both!) on the consumption of oil, then they would want to drive out the higher priced supplies and sell off as much of their own stocks as possible while they can.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 25, 2014, 06:05:44 PM

Quote
"It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is. Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel...is irrelevant."

I really don't understand that way of thinking.  Is he saying that the non-OPEC producers won't cooperate with OPEC so there's no way to control supply and boost price?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 25, 2014, 06:43:29 PM

Quote
"It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is. Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel...is irrelevant."

I really don't understand that way of thinking.  Is he saying that the non-OPEC producers won't cooperate with OPEC so there's no way to control supply and boost price?


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-oil-prices-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141222 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-oil-prices-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141222)

Quote
Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali al-Omair said OPEC did not need to cut production and would not hold an emergency meeting ahead of its next scheduled talks in June.

"I don't think we need to cut. We gave a chance to others (and) they were not willing to do so," he said, referring to contacts with non-OPEC producers before OPEC's meeting in November in Vienna.

There, OPEC kept its target output of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) unchanged, leaving the market to balance itself without the group's intervention.

That stance was seen as a shift from a longstanding policy in which OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia has acted as a swing supplier.

Asked about possible cooperation between members of OPEC, which include the world's lowest-cost producers, and non-member countries, Naimi replied: "The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient producers produce".

Another relevant quote:

Quote
He also said that OPEC's decision would ultimately help the world economy. "Current prices do not encourage investment in any form of energy, but they stimulate global economic growth, leading ultimately to an ‎increase in global demand and a slowdown in the growth of supplies," he said.



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 25, 2014, 06:57:45 PM
So, my thinking is that the Saudis are playing the long game here (like they always have):

Cheap oil stimulates growth, increasing demand and drawing down excess spare capacity. It also diverts money away from new energy investment (including both fossil and renewable energy)  and back into the economy at large. In addition, more of the remaining investment money goes into enhancing extraction efficiency (through secondary and tertiary oil extraction) to reduce the cost of production. In other words, it prolongs the age of oil. The Saudis do not benefit in the long run if oil stays well above 100/barrel.

Edited for clarity.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 25, 2014, 09:38:29 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FEVsdisplacePHEVs-1.png&hash=eaad88a96cc0fc2ef9407d1e3ec288de) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/EVsdisplacePHEVs-1.png.html)


Ignore the "Recent US conditions".  That is out of date.

Tesla is now paying Panasonic $180/kWh for their batteries.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on December 26, 2014, 08:12:01 AM
 Perhaps he is saying that the OPEC partners shouldn't be expected to cut their production in order to keep prices high for the competition. If all players cut production by 10% this might be perceived as being more fair than asking OPEC to cut by 20% while everyone else pumps at capacity.
 As things stand high cost oil may simply close up shop & everyone will learn to live without tar-sands, shale, Arctic or deepwater production. I've heard that Russia is fine with cheap oil and a low Ruble but that Canada, Venezuela & American dreams of Oil Independence will crash hard.
 China's financial backing of Russia disrupts any dreams of "breaking" Russia as the Soviets were broken by Saudi/American oil price manipulation in the mid 80's. Saudi oil will continue to be priced and bought with American dollars, but Russian oil, extracted in Rubles and sold to BRICS in local currencies opens a new avenue for energy hungry nations to explore.
 Exported American gas can never compete with piped gas because of the huge costs of compressing/decompressing. The only markets available are island nations or those willing to sacrifice their competitiveness for ideological reasons. The EU did a quick about face re. South Stream, although that ship has probably already sailed, and those that believe they will willingly pay much more for American LNG than cheap Russian piped gas must believe that Merkel's phone calls contain some really explosive messages.
 Russia will have a few rough years while businesses pay off dollar debts, then, baring WWIII, the Sino-Russian century begins (as long as climate change doesn't toss over the chess board).
Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on December 26, 2014, 02:17:19 PM
Csnavywx, Terry and others,

to cite Saudi Arabia s Oil minister: "Naimi replied: "The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient producers produce"".

And to conclude: They are teaching us reason and how the market goes. We should realize, that it is very stupid to destroy our nature and our water sources by extremely expensive and dirty sources like tar sands and shale gas/oil. So we are taught the hard way to keep the dirty expensive stuff where it is and to use the easy cheap oil for the rest of the "oil-age". How much oil are we allowed to burn to reach e.g. the 2°C limit? Do we need more than the easy oil for that? So we should appreciate Saudis lesson and stop wasting our planet for nothing.

Stop let us stop blowing bubble after bubble and concentrate on the real things.

And I do not think that a "Sino-Russian century begins" but the oil-century will end. And most regions will increase their share on cost of the few regions, which took a to big share in the past. No problem to learn de-growth in the most developed countries first - we will not starve.

But the big risk is, that the cheap oil will boost some bubble-growth again: If people spend the saved money to consume more things and thus drive us in more problems. That money must be spend for lasting goods and not in bubble-consumption again.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2014, 03:55:33 PM

Quote
"It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is. Whether it goes down to $20 a barrel...is irrelevant."

I really don't understand that way of thinking.  Is he saying that the non-OPEC producers won't cooperate with OPEC so there's no way to control supply and boost price?

If you have enough money –– and the Saudis have billions of dollars set aside in savings –– price is no longer of any consequence.  Just as the higher cost of that new project they're building is no longer important, the lower profit of their day-to-day business doesn't matter, either.  High or low, cost or profit, they will simply do as they like, while the cost to others is of no concern to them.  Obscene wealth has obscene "privileges".
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2014, 09:42:38 PM
Analyst:  we're in new territory, with no (OPEC) oil cartel to control price or supply.  She doesn't see oil prices rebounding within the next 18 months.  7min video.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-market-gianna-bern-on-prices-m-a-opec-S0cQ~92MTNSwV6645FFQEg.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-market-gianna-bern-on-prices-m-a-opec-S0cQ~92MTNSwV6645FFQEg.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 26, 2014, 11:19:51 PM
If the Saudi goal is to create a new "OPEC" we could easily see higher oil prices in a few months.

All the Saudis need to do is to convince most of the other producers to agree to limit production.  They aren't likely to get 100% compliance but the countries least likely to cooperate can't supply even half of demand.  Countries like Venezuela will likely prefer to sell some oil at a high price rather than to sell no oil at all.

I suspect agreements won't be as public this time around. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2014, 02:51:48 AM
If the Saudi goal is to create a new "OPEC" we could easily see higher oil prices in a few months.

All the Saudis need to do is to convince most of the other producers to agree to limit production.  They aren't likely to get 100% compliance but the countries least likely to cooperate can't supply even half of demand.  Countries like Venezuela will likely prefer to sell some oil at a high price rather than to sell no oil at all.

I suspect agreements won't be as public this time around.
The oil cartel era is dead, and Saudi Arabia has no plans to restart it.  Here's how they will deal with the new reality:
"Saudi Rulers to Curb Wages as Kingdom Confronts Oil Slump"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/saudi-arabia-sees-wider-2015-budget-deficit-as-oil-prices-plunge.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/saudi-arabia-sees-wider-2015-budget-deficit-as-oil-prices-plunge.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 27, 2014, 04:44:39 AM
I think we're overthinking this a bit. Hell, I even posted on the geopolitical angle, but I'm thinking that was a bit of an over-analyzation by me.

The root cause:
1) Prolonged high prices gave rise to large spare capacity.
2) G-20 nations, most of which are net importers, are almost all experiencing recessions (or soon-to-be recessions) which is suppressing demand. The US is an exception at the moment.

A low oil price WILL boost growth and demand over time, eventually eating into that spare capacity. I think we're already starting to see an increase in the US based on EIA consumption and "product supplied" data, but we will need a couple more months to confirm the trend. Thing is, prices have been so high for so long, that there's now a large number of wells that can come back online as soon as the price rises enough for them to become profitable. It might be a long time before we see high prices again.

That's not exactly great news for the climate of course, but it is what it is. Most people don't think beyond their next paycheck nowadays, so a low gas price is likely to translate into increased spending on consumer goods.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 27, 2014, 06:08:29 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/27/us/falling-oil-prices-have-ripple-effect-in-texas-louisiana-oklahoma.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/27/us/falling-oil-prices-have-ripple-effect-in-texas-louisiana-oklahoma.html?_r=0)

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/British-Oil-Industry-On-The-Verge-Of-Collapse.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/British-Oil-Industry-On-The-Verge-Of-Collapse.html)

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Drilling-Cutbacks-Mean-Service-Companies-Forced-to-Scrap-Rigs.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Drilling-Cutbacks-Mean-Service-Companies-Forced-to-Scrap-Rigs.html)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/job-engine-running-low-on-gas-as-energy-costs-tumble-1419619419?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories (http://www.wsj.com/articles/job-engine-running-low-on-gas-as-energy-costs-tumble-1419619419?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 28, 2014, 04:31:06 PM
Shared Humanity (if you are around any longer you will find this interesting I bet)

I would be interested in your thoughts on the below.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2014/05/15/profit-from-crisis-why-capitalists-do-not-want-recovery-and-what-that-means-for-america/ (http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2014/05/15/profit-from-crisis-why-capitalists-do-not-want-recovery-and-what-that-means-for-america/)

Quote
...............

So what do these facts mean for America?

First, they make the fault-lines obvious. The old slogan “what’s good for GM is good for America” now rings hollow. Capitalists seek not utility through consumption but more power through redistribution. And they achieve their goal not by raising investment and fueling growth, but by allowing unemployment to rise and jobs to become scarce. Clearly, we are not “all in the same boat.” There is a distributional struggle for power, and this struggle is not a mere “sociological” issue. It is the center of our political economy, and we need a new theoretical framework to understand it.

Second, macroeconomic policy, whether old or new, cannot offset the aggregate consequences of this distributional struggle. Not by a long shot. Till the late 1970s, the budget deficit was small, yet America boomed. And why? Because progressive taxation, transfer payments and social programs made the distribution of income less unequal. By the early 1980s, this relationship inverted. Although the budget deficit ballooned and interest rates fell, economic growth decelerated. New methods of upward redistribution have caused the share of the Top 1 percent to zoom, making stagnation the new norm.

Third, and finally, Washington can no longer hide behind the bush. On the one hand, the concentration of America’s income and assets, having been boosted by large post-crisis bailouts and massive quantitative easing, is now at record levels. On the other hand, long-term unemployment remains at post-war highs while job growth is at a standstill. Eventually, this situation will be reversed. The only question is whether it will be reversed through a new policy trajectory or through the calamity of systemic crisis.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2014, 05:54:40 PM
Texans Discover Oil Grows on Olive Trees as Crude Drops
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/texans-discover-oil-growing-on-olive-trees-as-crude-drop-deepens.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/texans-discover-oil-growing-on-olive-trees-as-crude-drop-deepens.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 29, 2014, 09:40:21 PM
Texans Discover Oil Grows on Olive Trees as Crude Drops
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/texans-discover-oil-growing-on-olive-trees-as-crude-drop-deepens.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/texans-discover-oil-growing-on-olive-trees-as-crude-drop-deepens.html)

"estimates put the life of his wells in the range of 15 to 50 years.

Olive orchards, he says, can fruit for up to 25 years"

Perhaps he should install solar panels.  Give up this short term stuff....   ;)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on December 29, 2014, 11:15:38 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fenergyinformative.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F05%2Fsolar-panel-warranty-comparison.png&hash=23b0e02849db1146da613d48020168f5)

The current difficulty is the cost of entry into the market and the regulatory hurdles that prevent a private supplier to avoid the necessary offsets of stranded costs due to utility expenses in the generation/distribution mix.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 30, 2014, 12:31:29 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fenergyinformative.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F05%2Fsolar-panel-warranty-comparison.png&hash=23b0e02849db1146da613d48020168f5)

The current difficulty is the cost of entry into the market and the regulatory hurdles that prevent a private supplier to avoid the necessary offsets of stranded costs due to utility expenses in the generation/distribution mix.

I don't know what you're trying to say.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on December 30, 2014, 11:35:28 AM
North Sea oil industry 'close to collapse'
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30525539 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30525539)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 30, 2014, 04:39:20 PM
Oil Near Lowest Since ’09 With Supply at Year-End Record

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/oil-trades-near-5-year-low-as-opec-strategy-seen-worsening-glut.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-30/oil-trades-near-5-year-low-as-opec-strategy-seen-worsening-glut.html)

Quote
Oil traded near the lowest since 2009 amid speculation that U.S. crude inventories will stay at the highest for the time of year in at least three decades.

West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 1.7 percent before erasing losses. U.S. stockpiles are projected to remain at 387.2 million barrels last week, the highest for the period in data going back to 1982, a Bloomberg News survey shows before government data tomorrow. U.S. oil drillers last week idled the most rigs since 2012, Baker Hughes Inc. said on its website yesterday.......

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 30, 2014, 10:07:47 PM
Greenspan: Structure of the Oil Market Has Changed; can't estimate future prices until business cutbacks are complete.  3 min video.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/greenspan-structure-of-the-oil-market-has-changed-0TsSP3HnROeuUpBLUGaKoQ.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/greenspan-structure-of-the-oil-market-has-changed-0TsSP3HnROeuUpBLUGaKoQ.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on December 31, 2014, 10:15:33 AM
Norwegians Turn Ambivalent on Statoil, Their Economic Bedrock
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/business/international/norwegians-turn-ambivalent-on-statoil-their-economic-bedrock.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/31/business/international/norwegians-turn-ambivalent-on-statoil-their-economic-bedrock.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 01, 2015, 03:14:36 AM
Quote
Oil took another hit Wednesday, sinking below $53 to a level last seen during the Great Recession.
...
"If this doesn't hold, we could go back to price levels in late 2008 and early 2009 -- down in the $30s. There's no reason why it couldn't happen," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Telvent DTN.
Quote
One key difference between then and now is how much oil has grown as an asset class for investors.

That could increase the chances of a downward spiral as investors panic and dump their holdings, said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/31/investing/crude-oil-52-dollars-even-lower/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/31/investing/crude-oil-52-dollars-even-lower/index.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 01, 2015, 06:12:33 PM
http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/30/oil-bust-contagion-hits-hedge-funds-supplier-layoffs-begin/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2014/12/30/oil-bust-contagion-hits-hedge-funds-supplier-layoffs-begin/)

Quote
Just how bad is it in Canada? Baker Hughes’ latest rig count, released on Monday, shows that US drillers reduced their rigs that are drilling for oil by 37, to 1,499, while increasing gas rigs by 2 to 340. But in Canada, oil rigs plunged by half from 190 to 94; and gas rigs dropped by 19% from 201 to 162. The Canadians aren’t dilly-dallying around. According to Civeo, tar-sands operators have been just as aggressive as drillers in cutting operating costs and capital expenditures.

Going into 2015, Civeo has about 35% to 40% of its lodge rooms contracted in Canada, “down from over 75%” a year ago. That’s down by about half!

In an all-out effort to cut its operating costs, it has been slashing headcount, in its Canadian operations by 30% and in its US operations by 45%. It’s closing facilities and is going after capital expenditures with a big axe, chopping them from $260-$280 million in 2014 to $75-$80 million for 2015. That would amount to a cut of about 70%!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on January 02, 2015, 08:16:50 PM
Chevron quits Canadian Arctic!!


http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chevron-cancels-canadian-arctic-drilling-as-oil-prices-slide-2014-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chevron-cancels-canadian-arctic-drilling-as-oil-prices-slide-2014-12)


In 1986 oil was dropped to $10.00 to break the Soviets. Russia, with China's backing won't fail but the attempt may extend for a long time.


Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on January 02, 2015, 08:21:33 PM
China might demand its pound of flesh from Russia in exchange for support.

China might, for example, insist that Russia start working on its GHG emissions problem. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2015, 05:23:17 PM
Chevron quits Canadian Arctic!!


http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chevron-cancels-canadian-arctic-drilling-as-oil-prices-slide-2014-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chevron-cancels-canadian-arctic-drilling-as-oil-prices-slide-2014-12)


In 1986 oil was dropped to $10.00 to break the Soviets. Russia, with China's backing won't fail but the attempt may extend for a long time.


Terry

Right from my Triage list!  As long as there are low prices and  a significant chance of their continuing for a period of time any deep water or arctic drilling is just financial stupidity.  I would expect that all such activities will see big delays instituted while the big players assess the situation.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on January 03, 2015, 09:34:05 PM
For hose interested in the mechanics of the oil market ripoff, see the latest by chris cook over at eurotrib, and his earlier work.

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on January 03, 2015, 11:32:05 PM
For those of us that did (or didn't) follow Shell's disastrous Arctic adventures, a marvelous NYT article covering the Kulluk's demise.


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/magazine/the-wreck-of-the-kulluk.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/magazine/the-wreck-of-the-kulluk.html?_r=0)


It reads like "The Perfect Storm". The scariest thing is that Shell was prepared to try it again but for the crash in oil prices.


Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 04, 2015, 02:53:55 PM
How much longer can the aviation industry fight off emissions controls?
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2696532/how_much_longer_can_the_aviation_industry_fight_off_emissions_controls.html (http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2696532/how_much_longer_can_the_aviation_industry_fight_off_emissions_controls.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 01:57:46 AM
Alberta economy feels the emptyness as oil companies shed workers in response to low oil prices.
Quote
Mr. Yager called predictions in October from the two main oilfield services industry associations, the Petroleum Services Association of Canada and the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors, of a 10% decline in oilfield activity in 2015 “hopelessly optimistic.”

“They were both predicated on $85 oil — as of today, we’re 30-bucks-a-barrel short,” Mr. Yager said of the forecasts. A sharp reduction in oilfield service activity is expected, Mr. Yager said, unless drilling, fracking, tubing and other companies can reduce their costs.
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/03/layoffs-loom-in-albertas-oil-patch/ (http://business.financialpost.com/2015/01/03/layoffs-loom-in-albertas-oil-patch/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 05:21:05 PM
Starting the global fuel-subsidy dump!

Indonesia slashes $18 billion from its fuel subsidy system, doubles spending on transportation, agriculture and public works.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/indonesia-doubling-transport-budget-with-10-billion-fuel-saving.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/indonesia-doubling-transport-budget-with-10-billion-fuel-saving.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 05, 2015, 05:28:04 PM
Below you will find the best article I have found on the world's current energy situation.  It is focused on oil and natural gas but also covers renewables on the macro level .  With only minor exceptions it states exactly what I have been trying to point out for some time.  Since it is an interviews with Arthur Berman you will get a much clearer explanation than I have been able to provide.  He is, after all, one of the world deepest experts on the subject so it would be sad if I was better at it than him.

Quote
....
OP: How do you see the shale landscape changing in the U.S. given the current oil price slump?

Arthur Berman: We’ve read a lot of silly articles since oil prices started falling about how U.S. shale plays can break-even at whatever the latest, lowest price of oil happens to be. Doesn’t anyone realize that the investment banks that do the research behind these articles have a vested interest in making people believe that the companies they’ve put billions of dollars into won’t go broke because prices have fallen? This is total propaganda.....

Quote
....Continental Resources is the biggest player in the Bakken. Their free cash flow—cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures—was -$1.1 billion in the third- quarter of 2014. That means that they spent more than $1 billion more than they made. Their debt was 120% of equity. That means that if they sold everything they own, they couldn’t pay off all their debt. That was at $93 oil prices.

And they say that they will be fine at $60 oil prices? Are you kidding?......

....U.S. refineries can’t handle the light oil and condensate from the shale plays so it has to be blended with heavier imported crudes and exported as refined products. Domestic producers could make more money faster if they could just export the light oil without going to all of the trouble to blend and refine it.

This, by the way, is the heart of the Keystone XL pipeline debate. We’re not planning to use the oil domestically but will blend that heavy oil with condensate from shale plays, refine it and export petroleum products. Keystone is about feedstock......

Quote
...Many people think that the resurgence of U.S. oil production shows that Peak Oil was wrong. Peak oil doesn’t mean that we are running out of oil. It simply means that once conventional oil production begins to decline, future supply will have to come from more difficult sources that will be more expensive or of lower quality or both. This means production from deep water, shale and heavy oil. It seems to me that Peak Oil predictions are right on track....

Quote
...Technology will not reduce the break-even price of oil. The cost of technology requires high oil prices. ..

The price of oil will recover. ...

Only a global economic collapse would permit low oil prices to persist for very long...

And this may be just what we are going to get...a serious global economic slowdown.  Not a collapse but the effect will be the same in terms of holding oil prices down.  If this happens and even if the low prices only last a year or so it will have very negative effects on any efforts to overhaul the current infrastructure to the green BAU infrastructure.  Finances and politics cannot be ignored.

Quote
OP: How do you see the global energy mix changing in the coming decades? Have renewables made enough advances to properly compete with fossil fuels or is that still a long way off?

Arthur Berman: The global energy mix will move increasingly to natural gas and more slowly to renewable energy. Global conventional oil production peaked in 2005-2008. U.S. shale gas production will peak in the next 5 to 7 years but Russia, Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan have sufficient conventional gas reserves to supply Europe and Asia for several decades. Huge discoveries have been made in the greater Indian Ocean region—Madagascar, offshore India, the Northwest Shelf of Australia and Papua New Guinea. These will provide the world with natural gas for several more decades. Other large finds have been made in the eastern Mediterranean....

Quote
...Of course, natural gas and renewable energy go hand-in-hand. Since renewable energy—primarily solar and wind—are intermittent, natural gas backup or base-load is necessary. I think that extreme views on either side of the renewable energy issue will have to moderate. On the one hand, renewable advocates are unrealistic about how quickly and easily the world can get off of fossil fuels. On the other hand, fossil fuel advocates ignore the fact that government is already on board with renewables and that, despite the economic issues that they raise, renewables are going to move forward albeit at considerable cost.

Time is rarely considered adequately. Renewable energy accounts for a little more than 2% of U.S. total energy consumption. No matter how much people want to replace fossil fuel with renewable energy, we cannot go from 2% to 20% or 30% in less than a decade no matter how aggressively we support or even mandate its use. In order to get to 50% or more of primary energy supply from renewable sources it will take decades....

Decades.  Exactly what I have been saying and exactly why large scale renewables are NOT a rational approach to preventing the worst effects of climate change. 

Quote
I appreciate the urgency felt by those concerned with climate change. I think, however, that those who advocate a more-or-less immediate abandonment of fossil fuels fail to understand how a rapid transition might affect the quality of life and the global economy.

Here we strongly diverge.  Berman clearly states the time required to transition.  It is far too long and amounts to business as usual.  Thus his focus on how a rapid transition will effect the quality of life and the global economy.  But since he has not really studied climate change and carrying capacity issues he fails to realize that his timeline of decades is the path to catastrophic collapse.  If we do not abandon BAU approaches now we will make the collapse process immeasurably worse.

In any case a very good read.

http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html (http://oilprice.com/Interviews/The-Real-Cause-Of-Low-Oil-Prices-Interview-With-Arthur-Berman.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 05:39:37 PM
Methinks their luck will not be as golden this time.

Canada’s Richest Grain Family Betting on Rebound in Oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/canada-s-richest-grain-family-betting-on-rebound-in-oil.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-04/canada-s-richest-grain-family-betting-on-rebound-in-oil.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 05:12:28 AM
We warned you about stranded assets!
Quote
With crude prices down more than 50 percent from their 2014 peak, fields as far-flung as Kazakhstan and Australia are no longer worth pumping, said a team of Citigroup Inc. (C) analysts led by Alastair Syme. Companies on the hook for risky, high-cost projects that don’t make sense in a $50-a-barrel market include international titans such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and small wildcatters like Sanchez Energy Corp.
Quote
Exposing Risk

The oil-market rout is exposing projects dating as far back as 2009 that were either poorly executed or bad ideas to begin with, Syme’s team said in a note to clients. Shell, Europe’s largest energy producer, may have as much as 5 percent of its capital tied up in money-losing projects. For U.K.-based BG Group Plc (BG/), the figure could be as high as 8 percent, according to the Citi analysts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/oilfield-writedowns-loom-as-market-collapse-guts-drilling-values.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/oilfield-writedowns-loom-as-market-collapse-guts-drilling-values.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 06, 2015, 10:52:59 AM
UK loaned £1.7bn to foreign fossil fuel projects despite pledge
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/uk-loaned-17bn-to-foreign-fossil-fuel-projects-despite-pledge (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/uk-loaned-17bn-to-foreign-fossil-fuel-projects-despite-pledge)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 06, 2015, 11:18:08 AM
Oil just dipped below $50 per barrel. How much lower can it go?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/05/oil-just-dipped-below-50-per-barrel-how-much-lower-can-it-go/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/05/oil-just-dipped-below-50-per-barrel-how-much-lower-can-it-go/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 12:59:06 PM
Infrared cameras tuned to specific frequencies can detect methane emissions cheaply and at a distance.  Many leaks are cost effective to fix.  And "Neighborhood watches" for methane around oil and gas installations are now possible.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/two-ways-infrared-cameras-have-boosted-the-case-for-e-p-a-rules-cutting-methane-leaks/ (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/two-ways-infrared-cameras-have-boosted-the-case-for-e-p-a-rules-cutting-methane-leaks/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 06, 2015, 05:40:17 PM
Commodity boom extracting increasingly heavy toll on Amazon forests
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/commodities-latin-america-amazon-deforestation (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/commodities-latin-america-amazon-deforestation)

Quote
But the recent slump in oil prices leaves Ecuador owing more and more crude to China, creating new pressure for the government to expand the drilling frontier in the Amazon.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 06, 2015, 05:42:18 PM
Keystone, climate change and the US economy: the truth behind the myths
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/keystone-xl-pipeline-climate-change-us-economy-truth-behind-myths (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/keystone-xl-pipeline-climate-change-us-economy-truth-behind-myths)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 07:19:59 PM
Keep your seatbelts fastened!  ;-)  Oil below $50 a barrel and the Saudis aren't blinking.

Quote
West Texas Intermediate for February delivery dropped 98 cents, or 2 percent, to $49.06 a barrel at 10:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after touching $48.47, the lowest since April 2009.
...
U.S. crude inventories probably increased to 386.2 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 2.... Inventories of crude and gasoline were at their highest seasonal level since EIA weekly data started.
...
Saudi Arabia, the biggest OPEC producer, will keep a “solid will” and maintain the nation’s stability even with falling crude prices, King Abdullah said today in a speech read by his crown prince.
...
Production may expand from fields in West Africa, Latin America, the U.S. and Canada in addition to increased supplies from Russia and Iraq, Morgan Stanley said yesterday in a report. Iran may boost overseas exports by about 500,000 barrels a day if international sanctions are lifted, the bank said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/crude-holds-slump-to-50-as-global-supply-glut-seen-persisting.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/crude-holds-slump-to-50-as-global-supply-glut-seen-persisting.html)

Edit:  update: WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) closed at $47.93
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 06, 2015, 11:20:03 PM
White House: President Obama would veto Keystone XL pipeline bill
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/president-obama-will-veto-keystone-xl-pipeline-bill-white-house (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/06/president-obama-will-veto-keystone-xl-pipeline-bill-white-house)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: bluesky on January 06, 2015, 11:38:40 PM
Is Saudi Arabia attempting to kill US shale gas industry and delay breakthrough in electrical car/ electrical battery autonomy?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2015, 12:41:58 AM
Is Saudi Arabia attempting to kill US shale gas industry and delay breakthrough in electrical car/ electrical battery autonomy?


very interesting,

I wonder, how could the Saudi's kill the U.S. Shale *gas* industry with oil exports?

why do we still call it a shale "gas" extraction process. 

Could it be that if the public realized that the value of the oil produced in the Shale production expansion was 300% of the value of the gas sold that they would realize that massive increases of domestic oil production did nothing to cause prices to decline over these last 5 years?


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 01:03:28 AM
Is Saudi Arabia attempting to kill US shale gas industry and delay breakthrough in electrical car/ electrical battery autonomy?
My impression is that they are simply trying to get as much money as they can, from as much oil as they can sell right now, because they see the days for oil are numbered.  They know the transition will be very difficult for them -- but they really don't care what it will do to other countries.  They have suggested that other countries should decrease their own output, if countries want to lower oil supply and thus raise oil prices.

Low oil prices will tend to shut down expensive oil acquisition processes, like fracking, which will help the Saudis in the short run, but I don't think that's their primary goal.  Electric cars and battery technology will still go ahead -- California, for example, is pushing them -- despite perhaps at a bit slower pace briefly, due to lower gas prices.  (Watch for carbon taxes/fees to be instituted during this time, increasing gas prices somewhat.)

People who have electric cars love them, and the best marketing tool is just talking to an owner in the parking lot....  With EV range going up and price going down, the market will continue to grow.  At some point, gas prices will rocket up again, and people tired of the oil game will see the advantages in the many no-gas alternatives the next time they shop for a new car.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2015, 01:23:41 AM
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ford-chief-says-massmarket-autonomous-vehicle-is-priority-20150106-01238 (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/ford-chief-says-massmarket-autonomous-vehicle-is-priority-20150106-01238)
Ford Chief Says Mass-Market Autonomous Vehicle Is Priority

Quote
"We believe in the industry that there will be a fully autonomous vehicle, probably within the next five years," Mr. Fields said. "Unlike our luxury competitors, when we do come out with an autonomous vehicle, we want to make sure it is accessible and affordable to everyone."

This will time perfectly with the <$30,000, 400 mile tesla and continued massive solar buildouts.

within 10 years the majority of U.S. urban transport will be self-driving EVs that charge while driving during the day.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2015, 02:05:19 AM
Exxon provides the following energy distribution and anthropogenic CO2 emission estimates:

http://www.energyglobal.com/downstream/refining/06012015/Carbon-dioxide-emissions-forecast-025/ (http://www.energyglobal.com/downstream/refining/06012015/Carbon-dioxide-emissions-forecast-025/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 02:10:51 AM
Some traders are betting on $20 oil.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-traders-are-betting-on-20-oil-2015-01-05 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/some-traders-are-betting-on-20-oil-2015-01-05)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2015, 02:22:10 AM
Exxon provides the following energy distribution and anthropogenic CO2 emission estimates:

http://www.energyglobal.com/downstream/refining/06012015/Carbon-dioxide-emissions-forecast-025/ (http://www.energyglobal.com/downstream/refining/06012015/Carbon-dioxide-emissions-forecast-025/)

from the report
Quote
Exxon expects global energy related CO2 emissions to increase by approximately 25% from 2010 to 2030 and then to decline approximately 5% to 2040.

In other related news, the Exxon board of directors, executives and related staff committed mass suicide this morning.  Leaving a signed note:

Quote
At these rates global society will completely collapse by 2045 with billions of lives lost.  We just felt too damned responsible.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on January 07, 2015, 02:35:48 AM
Oil is crashing to crush the Russian economy. The last time this was done was in 1986 when the USSR went belly up after oil dropped to < $10.00 ($21.30 in 2015 $), per barrel. Oil stayed low for over a decade.
While low prices are hurting all producing nations, Russia, especially after the announcement of China's support, will not be brought down. The damage to Canada, Netherlands and other friendlies reliant on oil exports is substantial, & financing costs to American shale oil plays will cripple the America's largest growth industry.
Re-using yesterday's weapons to win today's economic wars probably won't succeed & may cause far more "friendly fire" damage.
European's are on the front lines of a dispute that leaves them gasping for the cheap energy that has fueled their growth. South Stream, which would have provided a reliable source of inexpensive gas, is dead. The projected LNG shipments from the US would always have been much higher priced than the piped alternative. With shale projects far underwater at these prices & depletion rates far higher than expected, it may be decades before the LNG shipments proceed. It's not impossible that American/Canadian LNG exports may simply have missed the boat and that Europe will be left paying for America's belligerency.
Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on January 07, 2015, 09:43:55 AM
Is Saudi Arabia attempting to kill US shale gas industry and delay breakthrough in electrical car/ electrical battery autonomy?
bluesky, Naimi explained us (link above), that they like to kill not only US shale gas but all inefficient producers (also tar sand, deep water and/or arctic drilling). That seems to be the typical behaviour of any market player to get more market share of the rest of the oil market left due to future global warming restrictions.

I guess the electrical battery breakthrough is independend of the oil price since that depends on political will and regulations like in CA or Norway or actions in China - I do not think that people in Arabia see any chance to change politics elsewhere. Sometimes US leader may have such dreams but that never worked anywhere as you know.

To cite Saudi Arabia's Oil minister again: "Naimi replied: "The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient producers produce""
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 07, 2015, 04:55:22 PM
People are way over thinking this by wandering off into all the speculation about some Saudi machinations in global strategy and tactics.

Saudi has only two main concerns.

Number One is the free market capitalist concern.  Drive out the high cost producer in order to make the most money long term by controlling the market.  There is no ideological requirement to be nice or fair about it.  Crush your opponents as fast as you can.  It is the John D. Rockefeller methodology.  If you are a card carrying member of the free market capitalist ideology you should be in serious admiration of what the Saudi's are doing.

Their second concern is their rivalry with Shia Islam.  It is their only sovereign threat.  Thus their support for ISIS.  That slamming the oil market up side the head with the reality of where the market sits right now serves that purpose as well is icing on the cake.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wehappyfew on January 07, 2015, 06:53:13 PM
I have a question for anybody knowledgeable about the energy markets...

Is it possible the Saudi's are making even more money now with lower prices?

1. They lead a monopoly - they get to set production, and can sometimes know far in advance what production levels they will set, especially if it is a high level (they have trouble enforcing cuts, but all OPEC members will go along with max output to avoid losing revenue).

2. The Saudis control huge amounts of liquid capital - what is prevent them from selling their production far in advance at high prices last year through the futures market (essentially shorting the futures contracts with the ability to deliver)?

3. They could also short the the futures through options.

4. They could short all the oil companies, the Russian Ruble, the Venezuelan currency, etc.

Then after they have made a huge profit going short, they reverse their position, and only then announce a production cut - making another great gob of profits going the other way.

So the question is...

Is there enough liquidity in all those markets to essentially hedge the price decline for the entire Saudi output, and maybe make a profit above and beyond the recent normal $100 price?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 06:54:58 PM
Quote
The U.S., still a net oil importer, would accelerate economic growth to 3.8 percent in the next two years with oil at $40 a barrel, compared with 3 percent at $84, the Oxford Economics study found.
Article:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/oil-at-40-means-boon-for-some-no-ice-cream-for-others.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 09:33:58 PM
Saudi king in hospital battling pneumonia, but, "The question over succession is not going to make a lot of difference to the oil policy of Saudi Arabia."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/saudi-king-s-health-puts-prince-who-hunted-al-qaeda-in-spotlight.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/saudi-king-s-health-puts-prince-who-hunted-al-qaeda-in-spotlight.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2015, 03:24:10 AM
New journal "Nature" study is first to detail what resources from what regions cannot be burned under 2°C warming limit scenario.
Quote
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is the first to quantify the implications for each type of fossil fuel as well as different regions, from the Middle East to the United States, if we are to meet the globally agreed upon temperature target of keeping global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial temperatures through the year 2100.

The big losers, according to this research, include Russia, which could only burn 59% of its existing natural gas reserves and 25% of its oil reserves, as well as Canada, which would have the lowest utilization of its oil reserves of any country analyzed.
...
According to the study's authors, Christophe McGlade and Paul Etkins of the University College London, oil companies spent a total of $670 million on exploring for new energy resources in the year 2013 alone.

"One might ask why they’re doing this when there’s more in the ground than we can afford to burn, and that money might be better spent," Etkins said at a press conference. Etkins suggested that companies return such funds to shareholders in the form of dividends, or use the money to invest in renewable energy research.
...
The study used a computer model to determine the most economically efficient ways of burning fossil fuel reserves while staying under the budget limit. These economic calculations help explain why the study shows such low utilization rates for Canadian tar sands oil resources in Alberta, since they are comparatively much more expensive to access and more carbon-intensive than U.S. oil and gas from states like North Dakota and Pennsylvania, for example.
http://mashable.com/2015/01/07/carbon-budget-limits-fossil-fuel-burning/ (http://mashable.com/2015/01/07/carbon-budget-limits-fossil-fuel-burning/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: silkman on January 08, 2015, 08:32:42 AM
In spite of blanket coverage of the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, this story received headline coverage in the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning and included an interview with Paul Ekins.

Here's the Guardian's take:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/07/much-worlds-fossil-fuel-reserve-must-stay-buried-prevent-climate-change-study-says (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/07/much-worlds-fossil-fuel-reserve-must-stay-buried-prevent-climate-change-study-says)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: silkman on January 08, 2015, 08:49:48 AM
This presentation is embedded in the Guardian story. It needs to be seen by as many people as possible:

http://carbontracker.live.kiln.it/index.html# (http://carbontracker.live.kiln.it/index.html#)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2015, 05:22:23 PM
Florida!   :)

State lawmaker Introduces Bill To Ban Fracking In Florida, Citing Health And Environmental Concerns
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/07/3608769/florida-bill-to-ban-fracking/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/07/3608769/florida-bill-to-ban-fracking/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2015, 08:37:40 PM
World Bank says end fuel subsidies and add price on carbon now.
Quote
With Russia and the Saudi Arabia-dominated OPEC cartel refusing to cut production, the signs are prices will remain low.

World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu said governments should use this drop in prices to offset the medium-term incentives for increased oil consumption by changing tax policies on energy use.

“With oil likely to remain cheap for some time, oil-importing countries should lower or even eliminate fuel subsidies and rebuild the fiscal space needed to carry out future stimulus efforts,” he said.

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/01/07/world-bank-urges-leaders-to-use-oil-crash-to-slash-subsidies/ (http://www.rtcc.org/2015/01/07/world-bank-urges-leaders-to-use-oil-crash-to-slash-subsidies/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 09, 2015, 06:52:39 PM
Nebraska Supreme Court Says Yes To Keystone Rout
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/09/nebraska-keystone-pipeline-route_n_6439466.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/09/nebraska-keystone-pipeline-route_n_6439466.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on January 09, 2015, 07:30:20 PM
Yikes! Will the veto hold?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 09, 2015, 08:25:37 PM
Obama faces growing pressure as construction of Keystone pipeline moves a step closer
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/09/obama-keystone-pipeline-legal-hurdle (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/09/obama-keystone-pipeline-legal-hurdle)

John Boehner: Obama's 'Out Of Excuses' For Blocking Keystone Pipeline
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/09/john-boehner-obama-keystone_n_6443510.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/09/john-boehner-obama-keystone_n_6443510.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 10, 2015, 04:48:32 PM
Fracking country:  Irving, Texas is suddenly hit with small earthquakes.
http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/are-earthquakes-texas-becoming-new-trend-n282621 (http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/are-earthquakes-texas-becoming-new-trend-n282621)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 11, 2015, 02:19:49 AM
CNBC financial channel discussions: finally getting real?

Oil Industry in Dire Straits;  "probably by the end of 2016 we'll see prices go back up.”
"We have to figure out why are prices crashing … so far so fast."
Exploration budgets to be cut by 30-35 percent, which will result in about 9,000 fewer wells being drilled.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102326270 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102326270)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: silkman on January 11, 2015, 09:42:56 AM
Two stories in today's Sunday Times business section illustrate well the challenges that will be faced by any government attempting to put the longer term necessity of addressing the carbon issue ahead of short term expediency.

George Osbourne is apparently working on tax cuts to support the declining North Sea oil industry in the face of the current oil price collapse:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1505481.ece (http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1505481.ece)

At the same time the rump of the UK coal industry is pleading for an extension of life support:

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1505456.ece (http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1505456.ece)

It's easy to understand the political pressures on the Chancellor with a difficult election looming and, I suspect, impossible for him to even consider the longer term need to let these two industries fade away as part of a UK transition to a low carbon economy. It's a story that will be echoed around the world as governments, in pursuit of short term expedients, protect their own assets.

I'm starting to feel as pessimistic as Jim D!

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 11, 2015, 03:05:50 PM
Meanwhile, The New York Times adds their voice to sensible calls for raising the gasoline tax during this period of low gas prices in the U.S., and using the money to fix our crumbling roads and bridges.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/11/opinion/sunday/raise-the-gas-tax-to-fix-americas-roads.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/11/opinion/sunday/raise-the-gas-tax-to-fix-americas-roads.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 11, 2015, 05:26:40 PM
Hate to think what this is doing to, say, the highway overpasses....

@SPIAindex: Latest #earthquake near Guthrie, OK, @ 4:29am today was a mag 3.6, approx. 4.5 mi. deep. 4 of last 8 were > 3.5 mag. http://t.co/YkOS3k8ekS (http://t.co/YkOS3k8ekS)

@SPIAindex: Most #earthquakes occurring near Guthrie OK are within "East Guthrie Lake Gas & Oil Field" & Guthrie Gas & Oil Field. http://t.co/5z1iQ9fZWL (http://t.co/5z1iQ9fZWL)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 12, 2015, 10:18:33 AM
How the world burns: fuel consumption compared
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/12/sp-fuel-consumption-worldwide-graphic (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/12/sp-fuel-consumption-worldwide-graphic)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2015, 02:12:55 PM
Methane leaks from U.S. oil and gas industry, particularly the New Mexico site, under more discussion.
Quote
“Every company is strongly incentivized to capture methane and bring it to the market,” Milito said. “We don’t need regulation to tell us to do that.”

But environmentalists point to problems with old pipelines and outdated equipment that are the source of more than 90 percent of the wasted methane, according to a report earlier this month by a consortium of five environmental organizations. The study said relatively modest curbs would result in a reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions over two decades comparable to closing down 90 coal-fired power plants.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2015/01/11/01-methane-cloud-grows.html (http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2015/01/11/01-methane-cloud-grows.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 12, 2015, 05:50:10 PM
Methane leaks from U.S. oil and gas industry, particularly the New Mexico site, under more discussion.
Quote
“Every company is strongly incentivized to capture methane and bring it to the market,” Milito said. “We don’t need regulation to tell us to do that.”

But environmentalists point to problems with old pipelines and outdated equipment that are the source of more than 90 percent of the wasted methane, according to a report earlier this month by a consortium of five environmental organizations. The study said relatively modest curbs would result in a reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions over two decades comparable to closing down 90 coal-fired power plants.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2015/01/11/01-methane-cloud-grows.html (http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2015/01/11/01-methane-cloud-grows.html)

One of my brother-in-laws helps run an oil field service company his family started.  They primarily service gas wells and the pipelines and equipment which pumps and stores the gas.  The various sources of your methane leaks.  I can assure you that low and dropping wholesale gas prices will not be conducive to fixing the problems described. It is very expensive to operate these businesses and expenditures on maintenance will suffer as prices stay low.

You might find this factoid interesting in relation to your interest in vehicle sales.  By bro buys 20-30 3/4 ton 4x4 heavy duty diesel pickups a year to support the business needs.  Under the conditions of use they put them to they last about 2 years is all.  Think of the embedded energy involved.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 12, 2015, 07:12:38 PM
Quote
By bro buys 20-30 3/4 ton 4x4 heavy duty diesel pickups a year to support the business needs.  Under the conditions of use they put them to they last about 2 years is all.  Think of the embedded energy involved.

Are you sure he isn't just taking advantage of an oil-industry giveaway in the form of an outrageously accelerated depreciation schedule?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2015, 07:59:07 PM
...
One of my brother-in-laws helps run an oil field service company his family started.  They primarily service gas wells and the pipelines and equipment which pumps and stores the gas.  The various sources of your methane leaks.  I can assure you that low and dropping wholesale gas prices will not be conducive to fixing the problems described. It is very expensive to operate these businesses and expenditures on maintenance will suffer as prices stay low.
Here's a money-saving tip:
New, lower-cost IR scans for methane can identify leaks that repairs would more than pay for in product saved. 
And pressure for action could well increase: "The camera is putting power into local residents’ hands, enabling them to see the leaks near their own homes and around their communities, and share the information with others."

Quote
The emergence of the camera technology has reduced cost and time associated with leak detection and repair programs and is leading to significant reductions in emissions and wasted natural gas with very little cost. In a recent study, the Clean Air Task Force estimated that finding and fixing leaks could reduce methane emissions by around 1.7 million metric tons per year, cutting leaks by at least 60 to 80 percent.

The costs of such surveys is very reasonable for two reasons: the cost of inspecting facilities is low with these cameras and, once leaks are found, the cost of repairing the leaks is largely (often entirely) paid for by the value of the gas conserved by fixing the leaks. Multiple sources report that survey costs are low. A recent study by the energy consultancy firm Carbon Limits found that it cost $400 to $1,200 to have an external firm detect and repair leaks at a well facility, depending on the facility’s size. Likewise, several studies have shown that repair costs are almost – or even entirely – paid for by the value of the gas conserved by the repairs. The Carbon Limits study, which analyzed records from over 4,000 surveys of oil and gas facilities, reported that 97 percent of the volume of leaks comes from leaks which are economic to repair — i.e., the revenues from the additional gas are greater than the cost of the repair.

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/two-ways-infrared-cameras-have-boosted-the-case-for-e-p-a-rules-cutting-methane-leaks/ (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/two-ways-infrared-cameras-have-boosted-the-case-for-e-p-a-rules-cutting-methane-leaks/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 13, 2015, 03:01:39 PM
Quote
By bro buys 20-30 3/4 ton 4x4 heavy duty diesel pickups a year to support the business needs.  Under the conditions of use they put them to they last about 2 years is all.  Think of the embedded energy involved.

Are you sure he isn't just taking advantage of an oil-industry giveaway in the form of an outrageously accelerated depreciation schedule?

A fair question, but no that is not it.

The trucks are sold off when the downtime for repair costs exceed a certain threshold.  This type of work is rugged.  About 75% of the miles are on dirt and gravel roads in Wyoming.  The trucks are pulling heavy trailers which often have many tons of equipment and materials on them.  And at some times of the years the roads are very rough with snow and mud, not to mention bumpy.  Four wheel drive is commonly necessary to get where they are going.  So extreme use.  I won't go into all the types of breakdowns he describes, but many of them are not at all common - like cracked frames, and splits in the sheetmetal of the cabs, broken manifolds.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 13, 2015, 03:09:43 PM

Here's a money-saving tip:
New, lower-cost IR scans for methane can identify leaks that repairs would more than pay for in product saved.

Since he has been in this business for near 30 years I expect he knows about what is available.

One thing that many do not focus on in issues like these is the profit factor.  His company is hired by the people who own these facilities.  If the price for their gas falls by 50% and the cost of my bro's maintenance work stays basically the same (other than fuel costs not much will change) then the types of repairs that the owners can afford goes down.

Worrying about small leaks of something that is now worth half what it was might just mean that a lot less maintenance gets done and the leakage rate goes up. 

Low oil prices will make it much harder to deal with problems like leaks.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 13, 2015, 03:13:38 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/oil-bust-last.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/oil-bust-last.html)

The oil story is the same just with more detail.  However one should pay attention to the overall bust in commodity prices globally.  This also has huge impacts.  Especially on the developing countries of which many are highly dependent on those incomes and have no substitutes.  Many are going to fall into recession. 

All of this has a big impact on oil demand and thus will further push down on prices.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 13, 2015, 04:26:25 PM
Something new.

The first instance I have seen in the business press that the US govt should consider starting to support (bailout anyone?) the US oil companies in their battle with international oil producers.  Too big to fail again?

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-12/americas-going-to-lose-the-oil-price-war (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-12/americas-going-to-lose-the-oil-price-war)

Quote
America's Going to Lose the Oil Price War

Quote
The financial debacle that has befallen Russia as the price of Brent crude dropped 50 percent in the last four months has overshadowed the one that potentially awaits the U.S. shale industry in 2015. It's time to heed it, because Saudi Arabia and other major Middle Eastern oil producers are unlikely to blink and cut output, and the price is now approaching a level where U.S. production will begin shutting down....

Quote
This could be a bloody, prolonged battle with an uncertain outcome. The oil price is rather inelastic to short-term changes in demand and supply. Its course this year will, therefore, be largely dictated by the news and the market's reaction to it. A wave of bankruptcies in the U.S. shale industry will probably drive it up because it will be perceived as a negative factor for supply. How high it will go, however, is unpredictable. It may actually rise enough to enable consolidation in the U.S. shale industry, giving it second wind and driving OPEC countries, Russia, Mexico and Norway into greater difficulties -- or it might just even out at a level that would make the U.S. forget about its shale boom. That would have dire consequences for the U.S. economic recovery.

It may be time for the U.S. government to consider whether it wants to up the stakes in this price war by entering it as a sovereign country. That might mean bailing out or temporarily subsidizing the shale producers. After all, they are competing with states now, not with businesses like themselves.

So now that it is pretty obvious that the US producers (the high cost ones) cannot out compete non-US companies (the low costs producers) we start changing the free market dialogue to one that says the others are not playing fair and we have to tap into the tax payers pocket book to bail out our failing companies.  The irony!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 13, 2015, 10:06:59 PM
Quote
By bro buys 20-30 3/4 ton 4x4 heavy duty diesel pickups a year to support the business needs.  Under the conditions of use they put them to they last about 2 years is all.  Think of the embedded energy involved.

Are you sure he isn't just taking advantage of an oil-industry giveaway in the form of an outrageously accelerated depreciation schedule?

A fair question, but no that is not it.

The trucks are sold off when the downtime for repair costs exceed a certain threshold.  This type of work is rugged.  About 75% of the miles are on dirt and gravel roads in Wyoming.  The trucks are pulling heavy trailers which often have many tons of equipment and materials on them.  And at some times of the years the roads are very rough with snow and mud, not to mention bumpy.  Four wheel drive is commonly necessary to get where they are going.  So extreme use.  I won't go into all the types of breakdowns he describes, but many of them are not at all common - like cracked frames, and splits in the sheetmetal of the cabs, broken manifolds.

I know a little bit about vehicle fleet usage and operations.  Usually repair costs are juxtaposed with the depreciation schedule and as soon as 'potential' repairs match that depreciated rate then the fleet is sold off at a profit.  Since this is a business expense it is written off and a new cycle of depreciation begins.  I would be very surprised if your bro's depreciated value is more than 10% of the original purchase cost after the second year of operations.  Why don't you ask him?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 01:59:19 AM
Something new.

The first instance I have seen in the business press that the US govt should consider starting to support (bailout anyone?) the US oil companies in their battle with international oil producers.  Too big to fail again?
...


The U.S. oil industry may suffer (my sympathies to your brother) -- but the U.S. and global economies are forecast to improve under an oil price rout.  (All the more reason for energy companies to move away from fossil fuels and switch to renewables!)

This article includes a graph of GDP increase by country:
Quote
For the US, the energy dependency and sensitivity story has been evolving rapidly as more and more oil has been fracked out of America's shale basins.

"Prior to the shale revolution model simulations would have suggested a boost of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to US growth for every USD 10/bbl decrease in the price of oil," they write. "That estimate is now only 0.1%."

 http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-gdp-impact-of-10-decline-in-oil-2014-12)   

Quote
   The slump in oil prices is set to boost the global economy, with crude-importing countries expected to substantially benefit, says the World Bank.
A 10 per cent drop in oil prices would increase gross domestic product in oil-importing countries by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5 percentage points, World Bank research said.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cheap-oil-will-fuel-global-economy-world-bank-20150108-12k6eb.html (http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/cheap-oil-will-fuel-global-economy-world-bank-20150108-12k6eb.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 04:42:20 AM
At least one major oil company will turn its back on fossil fuels, says scientist
Quote
The oil price crash coupled with growing concerns about global warming will encourage at least one of the major oil companies to turn its back on fossil fuels in the near future, predicts an award-winning scientist and former industry adviser.

Dr Jeremy Leggett, who has had consultations on climate change with senior oil company executives over 25 years, says it will not be a rerun of the BP story when the company launched its “beyond petroleum” strategy and then did a U-turn.

“One of the oil companies will break ranks and this time it is going to stick,” he said. “The industry is facing plunging commodity prices and soaring costs at risky projects in the Arctic, deepwater Brazil and elsewhere.

“Oil companies are also realising it is no long morally defensible to ignore the consequences of climate change.”
...
Leggett, who plans to stands down as chairman of the highly successful Solarcentury renewable business he founded to focus on climate change campaigning, holds what he calls “friendly critic” sessions with the fossil fuel sector these days. The tone of the meetings has changed significantly over the past two years, he said.

“Before it was know your enemy. Now it’s: ‘Crikey. A lot of this may be coming true on our watch. What shall we do about it?’ There are top-to-bottom strategic reviews going on in E.ON but in other companies as well, utility and oil and gas. So it will be really interesting to see which is the first of the oil and gas companies to break from the pack, although I fear BP and Shell are going backwards not forwards on carbon.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/11/oil-company-fossil-fuels-jeremy-leggett-soaring-costs-risky-energy-projects (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/11/oil-company-fossil-fuels-jeremy-leggett-soaring-costs-risky-energy-projects)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 05:08:02 AM
Quick, need to find someone to blame.

Oil Drops Below $45; U.S. Stockpiles May Speed Collapse
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-drops-from-5-1-2-year-low-as-u-s-supply-seen-adding-to-glut.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-drops-from-5-1-2-year-low-as-u-s-supply-seen-adding-to-glut.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 14, 2015, 10:00:27 AM
Obama Is Said to Be Planning New Rules on Oil and Gas Industry’s Methane Emissions
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/14/us/politics/obama-administration-to-unveil-plans-to-cut-methane-emissions.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/14/us/politics/obama-administration-to-unveil-plans-to-cut-methane-emissions.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 14, 2015, 04:21:03 PM

The U.S. oil industry may suffer (my sympathies to your brother) -- but the U.S. and global economies are forecast to improve under an oil price rout.  (All the more reason for energy companies to move away from fossil fuels and switch to renewables!)

Well we will see how beneficial the plummet in oil prices will be to the various economies.

I would be very careful accepting such projections from many sources.  Do not forget that most main stream media and many industry specific outlets are trying very hard to manipulate you and everyone else into continuing to support consumption patterns that will make them more money.  They will tell you anything to get you to follow them.

The oil price fall is going to obliterate the finances of many countries.  This will ripple and effect many others who have weak finances.  And so on.  The banking and finance industry is in another bubble and debt is once again at very high levels.  This begs for a correction.  There are large housing bubbles in many locations and consumers are in deep debt not to mention there are large numbers of companies (especially in the oil industry) which are in serious trouble regarding debt payments and rolling over that debt.  The Euro countries are sinking in economic terms, as is Eastern Europe and Russia, China is slowing, Brazil, Argentina and many other developing countries are slowing and have debt troubles.  Commodity dependent countries are all looking at declining finances and then there is the deep issues with oil/gas.

Yes the low oil prices will result in a temporary boost to US consumer sales and profits for some countries.  But much of that consumer bump is exactly the wrong kind.  To wit the huge jump in sales of large gas guzzeling vehicles with their horrible environmental tail. The overall impact on the US economy, however, is most likely not going to be pretty over the next year. 

Additionally you have a rise in the US and many other countries of power in conservative political parties and they will be a strong force for BAU and an impediment to a host of the things you value like alternative energy programs.

It is very hard to come up with a scenario where we are not in a worse position 2 years from now than we are now.  Anything less than dramatic progress is the same as none to me.  We are way past the point of no return and we still are taking satisfaction in little tiny things and ignoring the elephant in the room.

But we will see.  Call me on it in a year or two.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 04:22:48 PM
Blame the Saudis, Chapter 2: If they hadn't slowed their production in the 1980s and allowed prices to rise, we wouldn't have invested in all the expensive extraction methods causing the oversupply today.  Spoiler:  There is no quick or easy fix.
Quote
In the 1980s, Saudi Arabia “was tired of the other members cheating and just opened the spigots,” Walter Zimmerman, the chief technical strategist for United-ICAP who predicted last year’s drop, said by phone from Jersey City, New Jersey yesterday. After the plunge in prices “the Saudis lost their nerve and they resumed the role of swing producer. If they hadn’t lost their nerve, we wouldn’t be seeing the shale oil boom today and North Sea production would be substantially lower because investment would have been less,” he said.

Investment in new production surged as futures averaged $95.77 a barrel in 2011 through 2013. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has unlocked supplies from shale formations, sending U.S. oil output to the highest level in three decades. Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record last month and Iraq exported the most oil since the 1980s in December.

“If they had allowed prices to stay lower they would have saved themselves many problems in the long run,” Zimmerman said. “Many reserves we take for granted would have never been developed.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-s-1986-collapse-signals-rebound-years-away-chart-of-the-day.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-s-1986-collapse-signals-rebound-years-away-chart-of-the-day.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 04:46:51 PM
JimD said:
Quote
  ...Yes the low oil prices will result in a temporary boost to US consumer sales and profits for some countries.  But much of that consumer bump is exactly the wrong kind.  To wit the huge jump in sales of large gas guzzeling vehicles with their horrible environmental tail. The overall impact on the US economy, however, is most likely not going to be pretty over the next year.  ... 

Look closely at those truck and SUV sales and you will find most are in oil boom states.  As the oil and gas industry shrinks, they won't last.  The auto-credit boom "has clearly seen its best days" already:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/cheap-oil-wont-help-detroit-sell-gas-guzzlers (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/cheap-oil-wont-help-detroit-sell-gas-guzzlers)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 14, 2015, 04:53:25 PM
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/12/2084942/a-capital-contango-and-why-oil-storage-economics-may-be-dead/ (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/12/2084942/a-capital-contango-and-why-oil-storage-economics-may-be-dead/)

The story that is developing is that oil prices are going to stay low for some time.  At least a year or maybe two.  There are many stories which will play out due to this but here is one for you to think about.

Think about the push for renewable technologies.  Over the last couple of years we have seen a host of charts depicting the slowly changing figures detailing the rising costs of fossil fuels and the lowering costs of renewables.  Depending on who is drawing the graphs and how they select the data (not all of this is pure fact of course as  both side engage in promoting their cause) some of those lines are nearing each other or crossing.  In other words the argument that renewables could be less expensive is being made.

Go look at any of those charts and insert the current price of oil and, for the sake of argument, extrapolate it out for a year or two.  Even better assume the fall in price continues for a time and settles not in the mid 40's but in the mid 30's.

Under that scenario there is not any renewable technology which is cost competitive with fossil fuels.  Do not think that the fossil energy industry and its bought and paid for politicians will forget to take advantage of this situation.



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 14, 2015, 05:27:46 PM

Look closely at those truck and SUV sales and you will find most are in oil boom states.  As the oil and gas industry shrinks, they won't last.  The auto-credit boom "has clearly seen its best days" already:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/cheap-oil-wont-help-detroit-sell-gas-guzzlers (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-03/cheap-oil-wont-help-detroit-sell-gas-guzzlers)

The statement is just not accurate.

Your article is about Ohio.  Ohio is not an oil boom state.  The oil boom states are North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma.  Beyond that there are no major booms just medium to small ones. 

National level vehicles sales are not materially impacted by county level sales due to a local increase in drilling.  Drilling is dying right now and sales are SOARING.

I live in the mountains of AZ.  There is no oil and gas industry here at all.  Sales of big pickups and large suv's are soaring.  They are soaring everywhere where the consumer and local cultures make them desirable.  Not just in oil producing areas.  Hundreds of thousands are going out the door.

Look at the graph in this link found from your Bloomberg articles.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-03/texas-key-to-pickup-truck-makers-success (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-03/texas-key-to-pickup-truck-makers-success)

You will notice it is for just pickup sales.  The only places where pickup sales in the US are NOT out of proportion to needs is?  Calif, Illinois,New York and the megalopolis from DC to Boston.  Everywhere else in the US is going hot and many areas are on fire so to speak.

Add in large SUV's (the chart is only for pickups) and it would be even more dramatic.

Vehicle purchases are not short term items.  They have environmental tails that are years long.  This is very impactful.

Look at this link and it will show you what is really happening.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html (http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html)

Light truck sales are higher than car sales.  The best selling vehicle in the US (once again) is the Ford F-150 pickup.  The 3 best selling vehicles in the US are ALL pickups - by a big margin.  Look at the sales growth numbers.  11 of the top 20 vehicles in sales are pickups or suv's. 

Look across the sales numbers in the last chart and just roughly add up the total sales of pickups, suv's and large luxury cars.  Their total is about 2/3 of all sales.

Look at those numbers and charts.  There is no good story to be found here.

http://autos.jdpower.com/content/blog-post/88x80jB/december-2014-auto-sales-most-automakers-enjoy-a-great-year-see-2015-as-path-paved-in-gold.htm (http://autos.jdpower.com/content/blog-post/88x80jB/december-2014-auto-sales-most-automakers-enjoy-a-great-year-see-2015-as-path-paved-in-gold.htm)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 06:41:59 PM
Today, the Obama Administration announced plans to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 40 to 45 percent from 2012 levels by 2025.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/14/3611372/plan-to-cut-fossil-fuel-methane-emissions/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/14/3611372/plan-to-cut-fossil-fuel-methane-emissions/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2015, 02:34:58 AM
New pollutants found to be in fracking waste.  No one has been monitoring for them.
Quote
Duke University geochemistry professor Avner Vengosh and his team of scientists found that wastewater produced by both conventional and unconventional oil drillers contains high volumes of ammonium and iodide — chemicals that, when dissolved in water or mixed with other pollutants, can encourage the formation of toxins like carcinogenic disinfection byproducts and have negative impacts on aquatic life.
That’s a problem, the study said, because oil and gas industry wastewater is often discharged or spilled into streams and rivers that eventually flow into drinking water systems.
“We were not aware that they existed in oil and gas waste products,” Vengosh told ThinkProgress on Wednesday. “Until now, no one was aware — no one was monitoring for those contaminants.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/14/3611503/two-new-fracking-pollutants/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/14/3611503/two-new-fracking-pollutants/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2015, 02:44:02 AM
Oil prices closed up today!   "Dead cat bounce" is apparently the technical term for it.   ::)

@iarnsdorf: Why the last-minute oil spike? Explanations here http://t.co/uCj5iSjU2m (http://t.co/uCj5iSjU2m) or if you prefer snarky video http://t.co/XKozYB3YZj (http://t.co/XKozYB3YZj)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 15, 2015, 05:12:07 PM
Engaging with oil companies on climate change is futile, admits leading UK environmentalist
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/15/engaging-with-oil-companies-climate-change-futile-admits-leading-environmentalist (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/15/engaging-with-oil-companies-climate-change-futile-admits-leading-environmentalist)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 16, 2015, 09:05:50 AM
Judge’s Ruling on Gulf Oil Spill Lowers Ceiling on the Fine BP Is Facing
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/energy-environment/judge-sets-top-penalty-for-bp-in-deepwater-horizon-spill-at-nearly-14-billion.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/energy-environment/judge-sets-top-penalty-for-bp-in-deepwater-horizon-spill-at-nearly-14-billion.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 16, 2015, 09:22:07 AM
Report: Fracking Imperils Southern California Residents, Wildlife
http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/natural-gas/report-fracking-imperils-southern-california-residents-wildlife.html (http://www.kcet.org/news/redefine/rewire/natural-gas/report-fracking-imperils-southern-california-residents-wildlife.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 16, 2015, 04:43:04 PM
The big boys are heading for the exits

Oilfield Services Company Schlumberger Is Cutting 9,000 Jobs

Quote
Here come the oil-related job cuts.

In its fourth quarter earnings announcement on Thursday, oilfield services company Schlumberger announced that it will cut 9,000 jobs, or about 8% of its workforce....

And THIS is not a good thing.

Quote
The company also raised its dividend 25% and repurchased $1.1 billion worth of its own stock during the quarter, both efforts to reward shareholders that have stuck with the company amid the decline in oil prices and selling pressure faced by all companies in the energy sector. ...

the rapid decline in energy prices, and said that while the market is still making sense of the massive decline, the knock-on effects, like a reduction in capital investment and job cuts, will take a few quarters to really kick in.

In other words.  It is just getting started.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 16, 2015, 09:52:15 PM
Repsol Abandons Oil and Gas Exploration Off Canary Islands
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/business/international/repsol-oil-gas-exploration-canary-islands.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/business/international/repsol-oil-gas-exploration-canary-islands.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 17, 2015, 04:13:04 AM
Wow!

Canadian propane price nearing zero
http://www.argusmedia.com/News/Article?id=977692 (http://www.argusmedia.com/News/Article?id=977692)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 17, 2015, 03:50:23 PM
Bleeding out

A good article on some of the companies which are dying first.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/money-dries-up-for-oil-money-dries-up-for-oil-and-gas-layoffs-spread-write-offs-start-gas-layoffs-spread-write-offs-start.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/money-dries-up-for-oil-money-dries-up-for-oil-and-gas-layoffs-spread-write-offs-start-gas-layoffs-spread-write-offs-start.html)

Quote
...........

Larger drillers outspent their cash flows from production by 112% and smaller to midsize drillers by a breathtaking 157%, Barclays estimated. But no problem. Wall Street was eager to supply the remaining juice, and the piles of debt on these companies’ balance sheets ballooned. Oil-field services companies, suppliers, steel companies, accommodation providers… they all benefited.

Now the music has stopped. Suddenly, many of these companies are essentially locked out of the capital markets. They have to live within their means or go under.

California Resources, for example. This oil-and-gas production company operating exclusively in oil-state California, was spun off from Occidental Petroleum November 2014 to inflate Oxy’s share price. As part of the financial engineering that went into the spinoff, California Resources was loaded up with debt to pay Oxy $6 billion. Shares started trading on December 1. Bank of America explained at the time that the company was undervalued and rated it a buy with a $14-a-share outlook. Those hapless souls who believed the Wall Street hype and bought these misbegotten shares have watched them drop to $4.33 by today, losing 57% of their investment in seven weeks.

Its junk bonds – 6% notes due 2024 – were trading at 79 cents on the dollar today, down another 3 points from last week, according to S&P Capital IQ LCD.

Others weren’t so lucky.........

Quote
...It boils down to this: these companies are locked out of the capital markets for all practical purposes: at these share prices, they can’t raise equity capital without wiping out existing stockholders; and they can’t issue new debt at affordable rates. For them, the junk-bond music has stopped. And their banks are getting nervous too.

Their hope rests on cutting operating costs and capital expenditures, and coddling every dollar they get, while pushing production to maximize cash flow, which ironically will contribute to the oil glut and pressure prices further. They’re hoping to hang on until the next miracle arrives.

“We are not panicking,” is how a bank CEO responded to the fact that loans to energy companies made up 20% of the bank’s loan portfolio.

Well one thing you can be sure of is when a banker opens his mouth you are about ready to hear a lie.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 18, 2015, 04:26:40 PM
BP sees $50 oil for three years

Quote
The oil price has dropped around 60% since June, to $48 a barrel, and I understand that BP expects that it will stay in the range of $50 to $60 for two to three years....

The reason BP expects the oil price to stay in the range of $50 to $60 for some years is for reasons you have read about here - it is persuaded that the Saudis, Emiratis and Kuwaitis are determined to recapture market share from US shale gas.

This means keeping the volume of oil production high enough such that the oil price remains low enough to wipe out the so-called froth from the shale industry - to bankrupt those high-cost frackers who have borrowed colossal sums to finance their investment....

And, as I have also been banging on about, Saudi is not thought to be weeping that a lower oil price hurts its supposed nemesis, Iran, reduces the resources of an an oil-financed Islamic state and mullers the economy of a Russia that it sees as having been too supportive of Syria.

Meanwhile although the US shale industry is in pain, the lower price will probably reinforce the US economic recovery - and the White House doesn't massively worry that Russia and Venezuela are in dire economic straits.......


http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30827910 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30827910)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Lennart van der Linde on January 18, 2015, 04:55:50 PM
Quote
reduces the resources of an an oil-financed Islamic state

How about Saudi Arabia's own oil-financed islamic state resources? Do they need a minimum price to keep their country running, or will they just use their financial reserves to fill the gap, or will they sell extra oil because of the lower price, so there won't be much of a gap?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 18, 2015, 05:45:57 PM
Quote
reduces the resources of an an oil-financed Islamic state

How about Saudi Arabia's own oil-financed islamic state resources? Do they need a minimum price to keep their country running, or will they just use their financial reserves to fill the gap, or will they sell extra oil because of the lower price, so there won't be much of a gap?

If we are just talking about financial resources, and not the influence of extreme political pressure from places like the US, the Saudis are quite capable of maintaining the current situation for a long time.  The biggest issue is that their revenues with these low prices are below their government expenditures.  But they have a sovereign wealth fund sufficient in size to make up the difference for several years.  They still make large profits per barrel as their production costs are certainly no more than $20 per barrel.  But this situation will not last several years.

They cannot really sell more oil than they are as they are not ramping up production but refusing to cut production.  Their free market argument is perfectly sound.  They are the low cost producers so the high cost producers (i.e. the US fracking industry, the Canadian tar sands producers, North Sea oil, deep water oil, Arctic oil) should be the ones to cut production.  And so the Saudis are running them out of business.

That is until the pain in the US exceeds the military and strategic benefit to our empire and we exert enough pressure on them to change their production levels.  Can we do that still?  Probably, but there will be consequences.

Saudi sees big benefits in their policy as it also works to gain them strategic advantage over their biggest enemy the Shiites - Iran being the only big country dominated by Shiites.   They do not really care about Russia other than their military support for the Syrians (Shiites again).  The Russians are certainly a large competitor in the oil markets and a fairly low cost producer but they are not a problem like the fracking and tar sands people are.

A big problem going forward for the Saudi's is Sunni fundamentalism.  ISIS is, in a round about way, a child of Saudi/Wahabbi Sunni extremism as it is an outgrowth of Al Queada.  Al Queada is, of course, the more famous child of the same.  There is a strong movement in Saudi to support and fund Sunni extremism.  Al Queada would not exist without it anywhere near the levels it does today.  ISIS will seek to expand into Saudi as they think of themselves as the proper and rightful caretakers of the holy cities as they consider the Royal family totally corrupt.  One sees the parallels to this situation in the US where extreme conservatives look on conservative/moderate Republicans   as no different than liberals.  Holding this situation in check will require some pretty serious repression in the Kingdom - as always there will be consequences and an unknown resolution.  In the meantime the Shiites will not sit idly by letting this situation worsen for them.  There is great potential for spreading troubles throughout the Sunni controlled countries due to Shia influenced resistance.

All the non-market stuff will also be a big determinant in how the levels of production are set and when. 

I expect that the Saudi's will hold out long enough to gut their US and Canadian competitors (and a few other bystanders) as this will not take all that long (no more than 6 months).  Beyond that it will be interesting to see how the various possibilities work themselves out.  I note that some of the prognosticators (BP for instance) have totally switched their tune and have gone from the prediction that oil will jump back up in price later this year to saying that oil prices will stay down for several years now.  But I think the real answer to that will be determined by whether we have our likely global financial meltdown we seem to be hanging on the verge of.  Or not.

None of this will be helpful in dealing with climate change in any case.  It is just more BAU stuff.  Interesting and entertaining, but fluff in any real sense.

All of the machinations of the market players and the various empire builders will just make it much harder to accomplish any solutions to our big problem.  Ever day our options dwindle.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 18, 2015, 06:27:35 PM
While I have not commented for quite a while, I visit here often. I have always dug deeply into world economic news and would like to let everyone posting comments here know that these threads have become a "must visit" site for anyone who wants to track trends in the world economy. The links have been exceptional.

If there is a single take away for me and I have always felt this to be the case, we should simply not believe that the markets hold any solution to our fossil fuel crisis. Rising prices for fossil fuels will always trigger exploration and dramatic growth in supply, including exotic sources like deep water drilling, fracked fuels and tar sands. This trend will also cause renewables to grow as they become more competitive. As fossil fuel supply increases, drops in prices will cause investment in renewables to collapse and people  will go out and buy trucks and SUV's. Prices for fossil fuels will eventually rebound causing the cycle to begin anew. We are like drunks stumbling along the curb of a busy thoroughfare, narrowly avoiding falling into the street and getting pulverized by a speeding bus.

If we are to get off fossil fuels, it will absolutely require outside interventions into the functioning of the marketplace.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2015, 02:25:12 AM
Oklahoma faces the painful truth as layoffs begin.
"The oil patch giveth, and the oil patch taketh away,” said Costello.
http://m.koco.com/news/labor-commissioner-oil-field-layoffs-eminent-economy-will-suffer/30768130 (http://m.koco.com/news/labor-commissioner-oil-field-layoffs-eminent-economy-will-suffer/30768130)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: werther on January 19, 2015, 10:02:23 AM
For detailed news on the topic I regularly turn to oilprice.com. Reporter Nick Cunningham posted a good update 17 Januari: "Oil Industry Withdraws From High Cost Areas".
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 19, 2015, 02:24:49 PM
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Low-Oil-Prices-Force-OPEC-Members-To-Rethink-2015-Budgets.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Low-Oil-Prices-Force-OPEC-Members-To-Rethink-2015-Budgets.html)

As werther pointed out.

A partial answer to Lennarts question re: Saudi

Quote
Already, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer of oil and OPEC's richest member, has acknowledged that the steep fall in oil prices since June will leave the Riyadh government with its first budget deficit since 2011 and the largest in its history.

The Saudi budget, announced on Dec. 25, will include spending during fiscal 2015 of $229.3 billion, higher than in 2014, despite revenues estimated at only $190.7 billion, lower than in the current fiscal year. That would leave a deficit of $38.6 billion.

In fact, according to an analysis by Bloomberg in December 2014, 10 of OPEC's 12 member states – all but Qatar and Kuwait – can no longer rely on oil exports to balance their budgets. And although Saudi Arabia is losing money, Bloomberg says, its treasury has a financial reserve of nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars.

So the Saudi deficit will amount to 5% of its reserves.  At that rate a 20 year supply.  Thus the idea that Saudi cannot afford to lose money for long is misplaced in the media.  There is no doubt that in pure number terms they can bury their high cost competitors.

It will take political pressure to turn this tide.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2015, 03:11:11 PM
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah is in poor health.  What about the country's future?
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ailing-king-abdullah-raises-questions-about-saudi-arabias-future-n287601 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ailing-king-abdullah-raises-questions-about-saudi-arabias-future-n287601)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2015, 04:13:16 PM
Quote
The UK government’s planned shale gas revolution has barely got out of the starting blocks with just 11 new exploratory wells for shale gas and oil due to be drilled this year even before the impact of plunging oil prices has fully begun to impact on the industry.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/19/uk-shale-gas-revolution-falls-flat-just-11-new-wells-planned-2015 (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/19/uk-shale-gas-revolution-falls-flat-just-11-new-wells-planned-2015)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 19, 2015, 05:45:16 PM
Oil pours into Yellowstone river after Montana pipeline breach
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/19/oil-yellowstone-montana-pipeline-breach (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/19/oil-yellowstone-montana-pipeline-breach)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: werther on January 19, 2015, 11:30:14 PM
"Every day our options dwindle" ... JimD 17 January.

I had a glance on Qatar in the slipstream of reading the linked article on OPEC sovereign budgets.

Ras Laffan:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FClimate%25202015%2FRasLaffanQatar_zpsbab6faa2.jpg&hash=5c373df7fb234dd53c8428e508b9b5f0)

The BAU-mind doesn't seem to care. The sheer scale of vested interests sometimes makes me loose mine.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2015, 02:07:32 AM
Saw a piece on the news tonight that offered a reminder:  those oil and gas wells that are being shut down in the U.S. are marginal wells, which were not producing much anyway.  The U.S. supply is still projected to grow by 300,000 to 600,000 barrels a day.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2015, 05:10:12 AM
Saw a piece on the news tonight that offered a reminder:  those oil and gas wells that are being shut down in the U.S. are marginal wells, which were not producing much anyway.  The U.S. supply is still projected to grow by 300,000 to 600,000 barrels a day.

Yes they will be the first to be shut in.  The canary in the coal mine so to speak.  But...

This is not a trivial thing.

Those are called stripper wells.  There are about 420,000 of them of them producing oil at about 1 million barrels a day.  18% of US production.

There are another 300,000 gas stripper wells and they account for 9% of US production. 1.7 trillion cu ft.

The small companies who operate these types of wells (often family operations as the big companies do not work this part of the business) employ some 400,000 people.

The per barrel costs of these operations average in the $50-$60 range.  These folks will not last long before they have to shut down.  This will be a big hit to the economy.

On a side note these types of operations are also responsible for a lot of leaks and spills.  And I suspect a big percentage of the methane leaks.  They are all old very marginal wells and maintenance is not high on the priority list.

Oil wells do not go dry.  Production just drops to a low level and many will produce small amounts for decades as many of them have been doing.  The father of one of my friends growing up owned 50 of these wells which produced then and still do about the average of 10 barrels a day (the wells date from the 1930's and 40's).  That works out to about 15-18 million a year at $100/barrel.  If costs are $50 per you can see what kind of wealth they can create. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 20, 2015, 06:18:56 AM
Quote
The Wall Street Journal reported that several new projects from Royal Dutch Shell, Hess Corporation, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to come online before the end of 2015 and will have a combined production capacity of 900,000 barrels per day.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Going-Big-in-the-Gulf-of-Mexico.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oil-Going-Big-in-the-Gulf-of-Mexico.html)

Posted on Thu, 27 November 2014

Quote
Also, there could be as much as three to four times more oil – potentially 48 billion barrels of undiscovered oil are believed to be in the Gulf of Mexico, compared to just 13 billion onshore.

With the high levels of investment, oil production is expected to rise to 1.9 million barrels by 2016, according to Wood Mackenzie. That would set a new record high for the Gulf. “We expect production from 2014 to 2016 to grow 18% annually,” Imran Khan, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Lennart van der Linde on January 20, 2015, 08:31:45 AM
Roubini on oil market and Saudi Arabia:
http://fortune.com/2015/01/13/cheap-oil-wont-last-nouriel-roubini/?utm_content=bufferb7fba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://fortune.com/2015/01/13/cheap-oil-wont-last-nouriel-roubini/?utm_content=bufferb7fba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2015, 03:51:54 PM
Roubini on oil market and Saudi Arabia:
http://fortune.com/2015/01/13/cheap-oil-wont-last-nouriel-roubini/?utm_content=bufferb7fba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://fortune.com/2015/01/13/cheap-oil-wont-last-nouriel-roubini/?utm_content=bufferb7fba&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)

I agree with him.  Most likely 1-2 years and then a surge again.  But he perhaps understates the effect of low prices on the US and US companies.  And I emphasize what they are doing is just capitalism in action.  But extreme political pressure will be put on the Saudi's over time and we will see if they can stick to their guns.

Quote
Their behavior is like a typical oligopoly using predatory pricing. If you keep prices low for long enough, you get rid of those who are high marginal-cost producers, whether it’s shale gas and oil, or Russia, or Venezuela, you name it. Secondly, you commit to your fixed investment schedule and continue to increase capacity. That’s going to lead to everybody else to underinvest in increasing capacity. In the short term, you have lower oil prices, but in the medium term you’ve flushed out your competition … you take the pain for the next 12 to 18 months, but the result is higher prices and market share down the road.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2015, 03:55:14 PM
Crushing The U.S. Energy Export Dream

Quote
Exporting crude oil and natural gas from the United States is among the dumbest energy ideas of all time.

Exporting gas is dumb.

Exporting oil is dumber.

The U.S. imports almost half of the crude oil that we use. We import 7.5 million barrels per day. .......

This means that the U.S. will never be self-sufficient in oil. Not even close....

Let’s put all of this together.

• The U.S. will never be oil self-sufficient and will never import less than about 6 million barrels of oil per day.
• U.S. total production will peak in a few years and imports will increase.
• The U.S. is a relatively minor reserve holder in the world.

How does this picture fit with calls for the U.S. to become an exporter of oil? Very badly. For tight oil producers to become the swing producers of the world? Give me a break.

Perhaps we should send congressional proponents of oil export like Joe Barton (R-TX), Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) to “The Shark Tank” TV show to try to sell their great idea to the investors and judges...



http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/crushing-u-s-energy-export-dream.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/crushing-u-s-energy-export-dream.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2015, 04:55:46 PM
Please don't say "explosion."  ;-)

The state of fracking in the U.S.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 21, 2015, 04:08:46 PM
OMG What could possibly go wrong?

Quote
Citgo Petroleum Corp. is planning to raise $2.5 billion that it will use to shore up the finances of its state-owned parent company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The U.S. oil refining and marketing unit of PDVSA is seeking to sell $1.5 billion of bonds and obtain a $1 billion loan, according to the person, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. While Citgo’s debt ratings were cut to six levels below investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service last week on concern Venezuela will default, it’s still three steps higher than the government’s rating.
Using Citgo to sell debt would mark a new strategy to raise cash for Venezuela after the government said in October that it had scrapped a plan to sell the Houston-based company. Venezuela owes $2.3 billion to Exxon Mobil Corp. and Gold Reserve Inc. after losing arbitration cases tied to expropriations, and those rulings would make it difficult for the government to sell Citgo without having to pay them off, according to Russell Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets in Miami.
The only reason Citgo would issue the debt “is if they’re going to default on it,” Dallen said in a telephone interview. “And then the bank or the company they issued it to would be able to foreclose and take the property. It’s a back-door way of Venezuela selling the company.”...........

Desperate times require...

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-20/citgo-said-to-plan-2-5-billion-of-debt-for-dividend-correct-.html (http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-20/citgo-said-to-plan-2-5-billion-of-debt-for-dividend-correct-.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 21, 2015, 08:39:51 PM
Update on the Yellowstone River oil spill.  Benzene has now been found in the local drinking water.  And cleaning up oil on an icy river turns out to be much harder than usual.

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20150121/ice-hinders-cleanup-yellowstone-oil-pipeline-spill (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20150121/ice-hinders-cleanup-yellowstone-oil-pipeline-spill)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 22, 2015, 04:03:59 PM
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/)

An excellent description of a disaster.

The washout in the energy business is going to be huge.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 22, 2015, 05:32:43 PM
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/)

An excellent description of a disaster.

The washout in the energy business is going to be huge.

This is absolutely the best news I have seen all day!  Thanks!!!!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on January 23, 2015, 12:11:04 AM
"oil-gas...soaring-production" is absolutely the best news I have seen all day!

news must be grim today  ;)


(Oh ok must be the reductions in new drillings.)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 23, 2015, 02:34:29 AM
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/)

An excellent description of a disaster.

The washout in the energy business is going to be huge.

This is absolutely the best news I have seen all day!  Thanks!!!!

Glad to be of assistance.  If news of collapse in progress makes you happy you are destined to be one of the happiest men alive.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 23, 2015, 03:22:00 AM
If the oil and coal industry completely collapses under it's own bloated, government subsidized weight, no one would be happier than I.

The only problem I have with it is the temporary decline in oil prices, which is supposed to increase demand, and therefore, emissions.

If we have any luck at all, these companies will all go belly up and the oil industry will collapse allowing for $10.00 gas in 2 years and a mad federally subsidized push to shift domestic transportation to electric light rail, electric bussing and privately owned plug-in electric vehicles.

don't you agree?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on January 23, 2015, 09:43:28 AM
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/22/oil-gas-layoffs-cut-backs-bloodletting-meet-soaring-production/)

An excellent description of a disaster.

The washout in the energy business is going to be huge.
Crazy shit! If that article is right, they would act in opposition to economics: Prices are falling so they increase production. Since the oil market is not very elastic that should result in lower prices.  So they maximize losses. OK, the money flood must go somewhere. But instead of paying more taxes voluntarily they prefer to pay more and more private subsidies resulting in a destroyed planet instead of better infrastructure/education. And I thought that insane housing debt bubble was insane - they can do much better now. That kind of "economy" is just BS.

Now in Europe ECB starts something similar: It buys safe government bonds to make the people buy more BS. Instead of increasing the prices/inflation by increased taxes (the normal way to trigger investments for the future) we do the silly thing, too. Let's see, which kind of bubble we will blow here. Tulips maybe, like in the very first bubble in Netherlands? Or probably something more destructive to speed up the things...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on January 23, 2015, 12:46:01 PM

Crazy shit! If that article is right, they would act in opposition to economics:

Is it crazy opposition to economics though?

If the main draw on cash is investment in new drilling then you cut that to the bone and other operating costs if/where possible. This is good news for lower production in a few years time a normal reaction to lower prices - produce less.

Existing operating wells are cash cows that are suddenly nowhere near as much of a source of cash. They are still a source of cash even if a high cost operation as high cost operations have lots of depreciation which is not a cash flow. Pumping more from these causing increase in positive cash flow in short term makes sense if there is a short term problem to get through. Your effect of increased production makes little difference to falling production. If others also increase production and cause further falls in prices, well that is likely to happen anyway even if you don't pump more.

More marginal decisions are whether to develop successful drill through to operations which takes cash investment. Do they have cash sufficient to last long enough and develop such sites? Lots of people will be trying to figure out how long they need to last and what cash will be available to do what.

I would suggest it is sensible reaction to situation, caused by nature of industry rather than being in opposition to economics. Economics suggests lower prices means lower production but this will tend to be a longer term effect with nature of industry dominating what happens over shorter term within its investment cycle.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Zythryn on January 23, 2015, 12:48:08 PM
...
If we have any luck at all, these companies will all go belly up and the oil industry will collapse allowing for $10.00 gas in 2 years and a mad federally subsidized push to shift domestic transportation to electric light rail, electric bussing and privately owned plug-in electric vehicles.

don't you agree?

No, the oil industry won't collapse.
The high cost, small business drillers will go out of business.

This will lead to less supply, leading to higher prices for the surviving, large companies. 
Oil will increase in price UNLESS there is worldwide demand destruction.

The remaining companies will be healthier and will start saving more money for the next supply surge.

Meanwhile, people will be shocked by the increase at the gas pump, then pleasantly surprised by the price drops as they seem to forget they have seen this all before.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on January 23, 2015, 03:20:08 PM

Crazy shit! If that article is right, they would act in opposition to economics:

Is it crazy opposition to economics though?
It is the insanity of a debt-based economy rating cash-flow over profit. And some people wondered, why Saudi Arabia would not reduce output in the same situation, when US drillers increased it to maintain cash-flow. It is totally clear who will win this competition in the medium term. In the long term we have to drive oil consumption to zero anyway - regardless of the price... So either there will be no other producers but the very cheap ones in future or there will be no future to worry about. We need to start with a deflation economy and degrowth to get on road towards sustainability. No debt anymore, no rising prices but reduction of consumption. The economy could concentrate on maximizing quality instead of throughput to survive.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 23, 2015, 03:52:59 PM
If the oil and coal industry completely collapses under it's own bloated, government subsidized weight, no one would be happier than I.

The only problem I have with it is the temporary decline in oil prices, which is supposed to increase demand, and therefore, emissions.

If we have any luck at all, these companies will all go belly up and the oil industry will collapse allowing for $10.00 gas in 2 years and a mad federally subsidized push to shift domestic transportation to electric light rail, electric bussing and privately owned plug-in electric vehicles.

don't you agree?

My first thought was he is just trolling.  Or joking.  Or something.

The real answer was provided above so I will not repeat it.  But you could not be more wrong if you are serious.  While you already know that I think your approach is not meaningfully different than continuing to do what we are already doing I am a bit amazed that you can twist this story into thinking it will further your goals.  It will do the opposite.

Dramatically lower fossil and commodity prices has great potential to gut the global efforts to build your civilization based upon renewables.  How can you not see that.  The bloodbath in the oil industry will not in any way run it out of business.  It will run many of the high cost producers out of business.  That is a big difference.  It will cause significant disruptions to a host of economies of the oil producing nations - notably the US, Canada, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Great Britain and so on.  As long as fossil fuels are very cheap they easily out compete renewables on a cost basis.  In hard financial times it will be very difficult to push subsidies for renewables when the lobby for subsidies for hurting oil producing states gets to work with Congress.  And do we need to mention that Congress is Republican now?  They voted this week to deny the causes of climate change in case you missed it.

The global economy is teetering on the brink of a major slowdown once again.  This will depress government efforts towards renewables especially when the costs of energy are plummeting. 

You were trolling, right?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 23, 2015, 04:08:23 PM
SATire

I know you are just ranting about the insanity of producing ever greater amounts in the face of declining prices.

It is all about the debt payments and the need to roll that debt over.  Don't forget that for the small companies in the fracking business it was never about making a profit as most of them have never made a profit in the traditional cost/income sense.  The companies are run to leverage the stock and make money off of selling the stock.  One runs out and drills a bunch of wells.  When you hit oil you advertise it up the yazoo on all the media.  Your investors from the banks and investment houses (whom you borrowed the money from and are in collusion with you) then run to the financial press and they trumpet your great discovery of reserves (no one mentions that it costs more to get the stuff out of the ground than it is worth).  The stock jumps in value as all the suckers are drawn into the frenzy.  You sell a bunch of stock.  You get rich.  Over time the stock normally goes down some and you buy some of it back cheap.  Rinse and repeat.  You get richer.  You take on more debt.  It is a sort of Ponzi scheme.  This works great until prices fall.  Then you maximize cash flow for as long as possible until you cannot borrow any more money.

When you go bankrupt you are protected by law from losing any of the money you made in the stock market.  That is personal and the company is public.  The debt is washed away and the bond holders are the losers or the public if you are really clever.  A lot of people lose their jobs and many small business go broke.  The mess you left behind becomes a public problem - you are no longer in business after all.  When prices go back up (and they will) you can start this process all over  again and the banks and the investment houses will be happy partners again.  And the suckers will line up at the door demanding to be let in.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 23, 2015, 07:10:25 PM
1.  There is no peak oil, that is a concept that was put forward by the commodity sharks who wanted to inflate the price of oil futures and justify the outrageous price increase observed in the early 2000s

2.  falling oil prices has absolutely no impact on the renewable energy sector, anyone who says differently is selling you a bridge.  In fact, it actually helps renewables due to high logistics costs see:  http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349091 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349091)

3.  economic collapse under a "mature" capitalist environment will only be turned around by massive Keynesian expenditures in infrastructure.   

4.  When high-cost tight-oil collapses in the U.S. we will see a drop off in natural gas stocks (over the next 5 years or so) this will radically increase the cost of electricity in the U.S.   Since natural gas is the primary competitor for electric generation that is offset by renewables.  Natural gas costs up --> renewables are better.

5.  Even with lower fuel costs, electric power transport costs are dropping more rapidly.  The next big market is heavy duty electric vehicles.  http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349022 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000349022)


I hope the entire u.s. oil industry sector crashes and burns in total collapse. 

(edit)

coal too!  8)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 23, 2015, 08:33:51 PM
...
I hope the entire u.s. oil industry sector crashes and burns in total collapse. 
...
coal too!  8)
I could like an oil collapse scenario.  Need coal to taper a bit more gradually, to transition to green electricity generation in those locations dependent on it now, but making oil/gasoline scarce and hugely expensive is just what we need to decrease flying, increase electric cars and trucks and use of trains (and bicycles and walking).  Nothing focusses the mind better than a looming catastrophe.  Energy alternatives would leap off the shelves to be adopted.  The transition would happen quicker than anyone could guess.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 23, 2015, 08:35:25 PM
More on the Yellowstone River oil spill:  ancient pipes are involved.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20150122/ruptured-yellowstone-oil-pipeline-was-built-faulty-welding-1950s (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20150122/ruptured-yellowstone-oil-pipeline-was-built-faulty-welding-1950s)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 23, 2015, 08:38:43 PM
What's wrong with this picture?  Pretty much everything.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 23, 2015, 09:58:03 PM
Surprising no one:
New Saudi King says he won't change oil production strategy.  Oil price drops to $45.59.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-23/oil-pares-gains-as-new-saudi-king-says-policies-won-t-change.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-23/oil-pares-gains-as-new-saudi-king-says-policies-won-t-change.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 24, 2015, 09:26:23 PM
ISIS is Driving Oil Overproduction

a timeline:

Here's How ISIS Is Wrecking Iraq's Oil Industry
Sep. 17, 2014
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-isis-is-wrecking-iraqs-biggest-industry-2014-9 (http://www.businessinsider.com/how-isis-is-wrecking-iraqs-biggest-industry-2014-9)

Quote
And just as importantly, ISIS, which nearly seized a refinery outside of Baghdad in June, is interrupting the one industry that makes Iraq viable not just as an economy, but as a political unit as well.

. . .

ISIS's oil profits might not be as astronomical as feared — but its ability to disrupt Iraq's leading industry denies the country of much of its economic potential while degrading vital infrastructure. In August, production dipped even in Iraq's relatively-tranquil south; production targets are being revised downward and exports have lagged in a country that's fragile enough to begin with.

ISIS sells stolen Kirkuk oil at $20 per barrel - Iraq Finance Ministry
November 09, 2014
http://rt.com/news/203723-isis-iraq-oil-smuggle/ (http://rt.com/news/203723-isis-iraq-oil-smuggle/)

Quote
The extremists have moved deeper into the oil rich Kirkuk region and captured more oil production facilities in the area, including one of Iraq's oldest oil fields, the director of the Public Debt Department at the Finance Ministry, Muwafaq Taha Izz al-Din Al-Houri told RIA Novosti news agency.

. . .

This week German media reported that since then the group's oil production capacity has sharply declined, according to German intelligence agency (BND) estimates. Oil production in IS-controlled areas has shrunk six-fold over the past three months, and oil transactions bring the militants some $270,000 per day

Amid Conflict with ISIS, Iraq Pumps Oil Like There's No Tomorrow
December 3rd 2014
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iraq-turmoil/amid-conflict-isis-iraq-pumps-oil-theres-no-tomorrow-n260216 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/iraq-turmoil/amid-conflict-isis-iraq-pumps-oil-theres-no-tomorrow-n260216)

Quote
Tuesday's deal between the central government and the Kurdish regional government in Erbil will increase production, raising more money to fight ISIS and adding downward pressure on global oil prices, already are at their lowest levels in years, according to Kilduff and other experts.

. . .

Under the agreement, Kurdistan can sell roughly half its oil production through the Iraqi government's marketing arm and will get 17 percent of the Iraqi national budget, which is supported by sales from the Iraqi national reserve. In addition, the KRG will receive $1 billion dollars to pay, train and equip its fighting force, the peshmerga, to fight ISIS.

-----
note:  it was this point where the Saudis declared that they would no longer hold up prices, no matter how low they go.  Apparently the massive ramp-up in Iraqi production was simply too much lost market share.
-----

Iraqi PM: Falling oil price ‘disastrous’ in fight against ISIS
January 23, 2015
http://rt.com/news/225415-iraq-oil-prices-isis/ (http://rt.com/news/225415-iraq-oil-prices-isis/)

Quote
Iraq has added more oil to the market than any other OPEC cartel member, and it continues to overproduce to try and combat the damage of collapsing prices, which the country’s oil minister believes has slashed 50 percent of the state revenue. Current production is 4 million barrels per day.

-------------

So it seems that ISIS selling small volumes at discount prices allowed them to maintain a constant threat and regional instability.  Their funding produces a greater sense of permanence and they are beginning to become well established as a regional political power.  To oppose them the Kurds signed an agreement with the Iraqi government for development and production using U.S. industry assistance and are massively ramping up production, this so that they can fund their opposition in this long-standing war of attrition and for the 'hearts and minds' of the local Shia population.  This extra volume of production, along with U.S. shale and increased gulf of mexico production further escalated the overproduction and made Saudi action as the marginal producer untenable.  So they decided to simply continue production in a mad dash to retain market share.

so this isn't so much about U.S. or Venezuela or even Iran production, it is about Iraq production, the response to ISIS and Saudi Arabia wanting to maintain global market share.


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 24, 2015, 09:40:14 PM
The linked article shows that Statoil is proceeding to develop new conventional Arctic crude oil sources even in the face of low oil market prices and threats of future carbon emission limitation agreements.   Obviously, Statoil agrees with other majors like Exxon that the world will not wean itself from crude oil within the economic life (several decades) of new Arctic oil fields.

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/01/23/arctic-still-profitable-despite-50-oil-statoil/ (http://www.rtcc.org/2015/01/23/arctic-still-profitable-despite-50-oil-statoil/)

Extract: "Norwegian oil major Statoil will go ahead with Arctic drilling plans, despite the drop oil prices and threat of climate change."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 25, 2015, 02:17:09 AM
Quote
This extra volume of production, along with U.S. shale and increased gulf of mexico production further escalated the overproduction and made Saudi action as the marginal producer untenable.  So they decided to simply continue production in a mad dash to retain market share.

so this isn't so much about U.S. or Venezuela or even Iran production, it is about Iraq production, the response to ISIS and Saudi Arabia wanting to maintain global market share.

No this analysis is not correct.  Saudi Arabia is NOT the marginal producer.  That is (or rather was) the fracking, tar sands, deep water and other such high cost producers.  Marginal means you are producing at the prevailing market prices.  The Saudis and other Gulf countries produce at somewhere in the range of $10-20 per barrel.  The tar sands and fracking production is in the range of 60-80 per barrel.

The significant change in the global production statistics is the high cost oil being produced in the US and Canada.  Iraqi production has not changed with anywhere near the scale and significance.

What is happening is capitalism in the global oil market is being implemented.  We have moved away from the cartel arrangement.  There is a global over supply which is being exacerbated by the declining financial situation in many parts of the globe reducing demand.  The Americans and Canadians want the Saudis to be the swing producer like they were many times in the past.  The Saudis often filled this role but it was done to gain influence with and favor from the west.  It cost them profits and market share.  It was not done out of sound business reasons.

What we are seeing today is pure capitalism.  The low cost producers driving out the high.  Saudi, Iraq, Iran and the other Middle East producers are the lowest cost producers.  Yes they are protecting their market share (capitalism) and perhaps seeking to gain some.  But this is the way it is supposed to work.  In a time of low demand and high supply the high cost producers "should" go out of business.  If you want to manage your resources smartly this is the way it should be done.  The Saudis have one and only one way to make money in this world and that is to sell oil.  They will be the lowest cost producer always due to the vagaries of geology.  For the sake of their continued existence they MUST maximize their income from it and use it ALL up.  They want to and should be the last place on Earth where oil is produced as to do it there costs us all the least as a civilization.

The situation for the Saudi's in terms of how this might also be advantageous to what they perceive  as their national security interests is just a side benefit and makes it less likely they will take any pity on the US.  The Saudi's have deep pockets and can weather low prices better than anyone and thus will put pressure on Iran and Iraq.  The Saudi people are strong supporters of ISIS (ISIS is of course a big threat to the Royals just as Al Queda was/is) and will of course not be too troubled by their adverse effect on Iraq.  But note that the US has and will continue to bomb any oil facility that ISIS controls in order to cut down on their funding. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 25, 2015, 07:52:33 PM
Sorry, I misspoke, I meant to say

Quote
This extra volume of production, along with U.S. shale and increased gulf of mexico production further escalated the overproduction and made Saudi action as the marginal swing producer untenable

Saudi Oil is no where near breakeven at $20.00

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic5.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F549300e1eab8eaa069bd4e5f-981-570%2Fscreen%2520shot%25202014-12-18%2520at%252011.15.51%2520am.png&hash=3649976620fe6b7fefd3a38f61045c6e)

source:  http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-breakeven-oil-2014-12 (http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-breakeven-oil-2014-12)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jbg on January 25, 2015, 11:37:39 PM
Canadian tar sands finds it's way to the sea.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-08/keystone-be-darned-canada-finds-oil-route-around-obama.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-08/keystone-be-darned-canada-finds-oil-route-around-obama.html)


Obama is attempting to damage Putin by lowering oil prices and the lower prices are now the only obstacle to full tar sands development. Reagan broke the Soviet Union by tanking oil prices but I don't think a replay is in the cards. Canada and other producers won't throw their own economies under the bus just to punish Russia & the Saudis may not be willing, or able to flood the market for too long.
If the tar sands are fully exploited it's game over.
Terry
I do not see the drop in oil prices as being deliberate. It's the salutary result of fracking and shale oil development.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 25, 2015, 11:54:15 PM
hardly

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0122/Iraq-shrugs-off-low-oil-prices-boosts-oil-output-to-record-levels (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0122/Iraq-shrugs-off-low-oil-prices-boosts-oil-output-to-record-levels)

Iraq shrugs off low oil prices, boosts oil output to record levels
  January 22, 2015   

Quote
For the month of December, Iraq produced nearly 4 million barrels per day, according to Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, an all-time high for the war-torn country.

Quote
OPEC reported an uptick in production – the 12-member group produced an average of 30.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, about 142,000 bpd more than the previous month. The increase came almost entirely from Iraq, which does not operate under the OPEC quota. Iraq managed to boost monthly output by 285,000 bpd, more than offsetting a decline of 184,000 bpd in Libya

And more is on the way. Iraq plans on doubling oil exports from its fields in the north near Kirkuk. Currently, the Kirkuk fields export just 150,000 bpd, but pending pipeline upgrades will allow that figure to rise to 300,000 bpd “in the coming few weeks,”
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jbg on January 26, 2015, 12:01:39 AM
hardly

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0122/Iraq-shrugs-off-low-oil-prices-boosts-oil-output-to-record-levels (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0122/Iraq-shrugs-off-low-oil-prices-boosts-oil-output-to-record-levels)

Iraq shrugs off low oil prices, boosts oil output to record levels
  January 22, 2015
That means they're adhering to pre-existing plans. I do not think there is any effort by anyone to tank oil prices.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on January 26, 2015, 12:30:07 AM
That means they're adhering to pre-existing plans. I do not think there is any effort by anyone to tank oil prices.
[/quote]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-difficult-for-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/saudi-arabia-s-naimi-says-difficult-for-opec-to-cut-oil-output.html)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-oil-prices-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141222 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-oil-prices-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141222)
Quote
There, OPEC kept its target output of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) unchanged, leaving the market to balance itself without the group's intervention.

That stance was seen as a shift from a longstanding policy in which OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia has acted as a swing supplier.

Saudi has clearly decided to cease being a swing producer. While this is nominally a decision not to lower production rather than a decision to tank oil prices, they are not stupid and know the effects that will follow from not cutting production.

So it looks like a game of semantics to me over whether this is a decision to 'tank oil prices'.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 26, 2015, 02:36:33 PM
"Every day our options dwindle" ... JimD 17 January.

I had a glance on Qatar in the slipstream of reading the linked article on OPEC sovereign budgets.

Ras Laffan:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FClimate%25202015%2FRasLaffanQatar_zpsbab6faa2.jpg&hash=5c373df7fb234dd53c8428e508b9b5f0)

The BAU-mind doesn't seem to care. The sheer scale of vested interests sometimes makes me loose mine.

I have been trying not to do this as often as I have as it can drive me mad (as in crazy) but I will respond.

I am absolutely in agreement with you, Werther. The BAU mindset is quite set and a shift in that mindset is extremely difficult. The picture you  posted captures this in a simple and stark fashion. Our civilization has invested trillions (hundreds of trillions actually, more likely thousands of trillions when you consider all of our infrastructure) in our current fossil fuel driven economy.  This fixed capital has a mind or will of its own and billions of people, in turn, depend on the continuation of the system for their well being. This is why I have always maintained that we simply cannot expect the market to devise the solutions to our dilemma. A well functioning market will continue to operate in a  manner consistent with the logic of markets, the pursuit of an acceptable ROI. No business entity can simply walk away from its invested capital. Such a business would cease to exist. Worse still, a business that would do such a thing would be immediately replaced by a business that is operating in a manner consistent with the system of capitalism and production would continue with only minor disruptions.

If we are to solve this problem, we need to begin to operate from a different paradigm.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 26, 2015, 07:25:36 PM
Jim Cramer states that the $45.00 level is the absolute minimum where U.S. shale oil is no longer profitable.  He states that oil "must" not go below this level or we will lose this sector.

http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/cramer-s-stop-trading-dollar-45-oil-must-hold/3x2ltjwo (http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/cramer-s-stop-trading-dollar-45-oil-must-hold/3x2ltjwo)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: solartim27 on January 26, 2015, 07:34:07 PM
The ANWR is a big issue for the 2016 election in the US.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/us/politics/obama-to-seek-to-protect-millions-of-acres-of-arctic-habitat.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/us/politics/obama-to-seek-to-protect-millions-of-acres-of-arctic-habitat.html?_r=0)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 26, 2015, 09:06:17 PM
Jim Cramer states that the $45.00 level is the absolute minimum where U.S. shale oil is no longer profitable.  He states that oil "must" not go below this level or we will lose this sector.

http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/cramer-s-stop-trading-dollar-45-oil-must-hold/3x2ltjwo (http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/cramer-s-stop-trading-dollar-45-oil-must-hold/3x2ltjwo)

Jim Cramer is one of the MOST unreliable media pseudo investment experts.  A more accurate statement would be that below 45$ there is no such thing as a profitable fracking operation on even the best case well.  The typical costs of fracking is way above 45.  Real oil business experts put the cost for your typical fracked well in the 65-85 range.  All of these operations are going broke.

Note in your graph above that they are talking about something completely different than I am.  Comparing the cost of production with the fiscal status of the country is a way of confusing listeners into thinking that the situation is not as bad for the US as it really is.  This kind of stuff is done by the business media in the States to help pump stock prices and such.

The Saudi cash reserves are way more than sufficient to outlast anyone else in this shakeout.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2015, 04:26:10 PM
A gas pipeline in Brooke County, West Virginia exploded into a ball of flames on Monday morning, marking the fourth major mishap at a U.S. pipeline this month.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/27/3615805/west-virginia-gas-pipeline-explosion/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/27/3615805/west-virginia-gas-pipeline-explosion/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 27, 2015, 05:07:59 PM
BP's logo all over Tate for under half percent of income
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2729249/bps_logo_all_over_tate_for_under_half_percent_of_income.html (http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2729249/bps_logo_all_over_tate_for_under_half_percent_of_income.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 27, 2015, 11:11:10 PM
Obama Plan Calls for Oil and Gas Drilling in the Atlantic
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/us/obama-plan-calls-for-oil-and-gas-drilling-in-the-atlantic.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/us/obama-plan-calls-for-oil-and-gas-drilling-in-the-atlantic.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0)


Who Moved Obama's Win-Win Cheese?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brian-czech/who-moved-obamas-winwin-c_b_6542798.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/brian-czech/who-moved-obamas-winwin-c_b_6542798.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Northeast Dems Revolt Against Obama's Proposed Atlantic Oil And Gas Lease Sale
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/27/obama-oil-and-gas-lease-sale_n_6557812.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/27/obama-oil-and-gas-lease-sale_n_6557812.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 28, 2015, 11:21:21 AM
Big Oil Seismically Slaughtering Sealife

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-reese-halter/big-oil-seismically-slaughtering-sealife_b_6551082.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-reese-halter/big-oil-seismically-slaughtering-sealife_b_6551082.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on January 28, 2015, 11:45:58 PM
Bove et al. DOI: 10.1177/0022002714567952

"‘‘Oil above Water’’: Economic Interdependence and Third-party Intervention"

"We find that the likelihood of a third-party intervention increases when
(a) the country at war has large reserves of oil, (b) the relative competition in the sector
is limited, and (c) the potential intervener has a higher demand for oil."

" The United States for most of the period studied here provides an example at the high end of the oil dependence spectrum (i.e., high reserves, high demand for oil). Consistent with this, we see recurrent US involvements in the civil wars and internal affairs of Angola from 1975 until the end of the Cold War. The United States was the country with the highest demand for oil during this period, and it was known from the 1970s that Angola had oil reserves. Oil in Angola was first discovered in 1955, and many US corporations, like Chevron, have been operating in the oil-rich Cabinda region for more than 50 years. The United States has also intervened in a number of other countries with proven large oil reserves, such as in Guatemala, Indonesia, and the Philippines over the period covered by our data set (1945–1999)."

"The history of military interventions of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (and later the Russian Federation) is also consistent with the predictions implied by our oil-centered motivations for TPIs by oil-poor countries. Two notable military interventions in oil-rich countries took place in periods where the oil-production capacity of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was at its infancy, that is, Indonesia in 1958 and Nigeria (Biafran War) in 1967 to 1968. The 1973 oil crisis encouraged further Soviet intervention in oil-rich Iraq, despite the fact that USSR exports were growing. Interestingly, subsequent Russian military interventions have mostly been unrelated to the presence of oil, in line with the Russian Federation gradually becoming a major oil (and gas) exporter."

"Beyond Western military involvement in response to conflict, such as the intervention to roll back the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the United States also provides significant military aid and maintains troops in Persian Gulf oil producers, and the United States has a history of supporting conservative autocratic states in spite of the emphasis on democratic reform elsewhere. This military and political support is at least in part motivated to ensure that countries on the Arabian Peninsula maintain crude oil prices within a target range. The enduring record of geopolitical instability in oil-producing regions and the likely increase in the global demand for oil implies that economic incentives are likely to figure prominently in whether we see interventions in civil war. However, with a less energy-dependent United States and a more energy-dependent China, the specific states with the greatest incentives to intervene are likely to change notably in the future."

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2015, 01:51:47 AM
Scotland Just Announced An Indefinite Ban On Fracking
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/28/3616690/scotland-bans-fracking/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/28/3616690/scotland-bans-fracking/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 29, 2015, 02:55:30 PM
New Report Urges Western Governments to Reconsider Reliance on Biofuels
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/science/new-report-urges-western-governments-to-reconsider-reliance-on-biofuels.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/29/science/new-report-urges-western-governments-to-reconsider-reliance-on-biofuels.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 29, 2015, 04:47:53 PM
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-and-Chinas-Growing-Energy-Relationship.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russia-and-Chinas-Growing-Energy-Relationship.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 29, 2015, 04:57:07 PM
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bearishness-Continues-Among-Oil-Industry-Experts.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bearishness-Continues-Among-Oil-Industry-Experts.html)

Now we are talking Goldman Sachs here and one must always keep in mind that they do and say nothing without the objective of making money.  So buyer beware and all that...but it is pretty interesting anyway.  If it is accurate the implications are profound and not in favor of finding a way to deal with climate change.

Quote
The business world is full of sometimes conflicting theories about what caused the plunge in oil prices during the past seven months, and how low that price will go. But Goldman Sachs seems to have come up with a unified theory....

....It began late in the afternoon of Jan. 26 when Gary Cohn, the president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., told the CNBC television program “Closing Bell” that he expected the average price of oil, now around the $45 range per barrel, to fall further, perhaps as low as $30 per barrel.

“My view is we’re probably in the lower, longer view,” said Cohn, a former oil trader. “We could definitely get down to $30.”

On the same day, Jeff Currie, Goldman’s chief commodity analyst, issued a research paper saying the demand for oil is slowing down in emerging economies, including China, meaning that the price of crude will stay low for a long time, and may never return to the prices they fetched 10 years ago.....

.........And Bob Dudley, BP’s CEO, said Jan. 21 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he expects the price of oil to stagnate at current levels for as long as three years, causing broad job losses and lower investment in the industry....

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2015, 08:07:04 PM
As he promised:  Pennsylvania’s New Governor Will Ban Fracking In State Parks And Forests
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/29/3616856/tom-wolf-pennsylvania-fracking-ban-state-parks/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/29/3616856/tom-wolf-pennsylvania-fracking-ban-state-parks/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2015, 12:54:59 AM
Oklahoma Supreme Court has agreed to review ruling that could decide oil industry is at fault for sudden increase in earthquakes in the state.
Quote
What to do about the plague of earthquakes is, however, very much an open question in Oklahoma. Last year, 567 quakes of at least 3.0 magnitude rocked a swath of counties from the state capital to the Kansas line, alarming a populace long accustomed to fewer than two quakes a year.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oklahoma-worries-over-swarm-of-earthquakes-and-connection-to-oil-industry/2015/01/28/eca21234-a71a-11e4-a2b2-776095f393b2_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oklahoma-worries-over-swarm-of-earthquakes-and-connection-to-oil-industry/2015/01/28/eca21234-a71a-11e4-a2b2-776095f393b2_story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: solartim27 on January 30, 2015, 06:13:29 AM
Shell is returning to the Chukchi:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on January 30, 2015, 07:42:20 AM
(https://dgilber2.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/blood-for-oil.jpg)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-iraq-shell-petrochemicals-idUSKBN0L10SQ20150128 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-iraq-shell-petrochemicals-idUSKBN0L10SQ20150128)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2Fthumb%2Fe%2Fe8%2FShell_logo.svg%2F1105px-Shell_logo.svg.png&hash=972a234e7cce0a9f47aeae42e2fe82a0)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-iraq-shell-petrochemicals-idUSKBN0L10SQ20150128 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-iraq-shell-petrochemicals-idUSKBN0L10SQ20150128)

Shell signs $11 billion deal to build petrochemicals plant in Iraq


Quote
Industry Minister Nasser al-Esawi told a news conference the Nibras complex, which is expected to come online within five to six years, would make his country the largest petrochemical producer in the Middle East.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2015, 08:53:49 PM
Is "two-faced" better than no face at all?

In a rare move, oil major Shell on Thursday backed a resolution proposed by activist investors to force the company to recognize climate change risks by improving its transparency.
Quote
The resolution requests more information on the company's operational emissions management, the resilience of its assets to climate change, low-carbon energy research and development and investment strategies, relevant key performance indicators and its public policy positions on climate change.

Shell said the company will provide the additional disclosures in its next annual report.

With global oil prices falling around 60 percent since June, public interest and shareholder groups have been warning energy firms about the financial and climate risks of investment in carbon-intensive fossil fuel projects.

ConocoPhillips, which previously announced plans to cut 2015 spending by 20 percent in December, announced Thursday it would slash a further $2 billion in spending. South Africa's Sasol also announced it would shelve an $11 billion gulf coast gas-to-liquid plant.

Andrew Logan, an analyst at sustainability-focused investor group Ceres, said such moves by a company to recommend an activist group's resolution is rare and reflects the pressure placed on Shell to address climate change.
You think?
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0V82IE20150129 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N0V82IE20150129)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 31, 2015, 03:53:25 PM
As Wolf points out folks need to keep in mind the old adage that you should not try to catch a falling knife.

Great charts...

Quote
The oil industry is dead-serious when it talks about slashing operating costs and capital expenditures. It has to. Preserving cash is suddenly a priority, after years when money was growing on trees.

In the US, the cost cutting has reached frenetic levels. One place where it shows up on a weekly basis is the number of rigs actively drilling for oil. And that rig count dropped by 94 to 1,223 in the latest week, as Baker Hughes reported today. A phenomenal plunge, by far the worst ever. In January, the rig count crashed by 276, the most ever for a calendar month. That’s 18.4%! the rig count is now down 386 from its peak on October 10, by nearly a quarter!

And yet, it’s still just the beginning...

During the financial crisis, the oil rig count fell 60% from peak to trough. If this oil bust plays out the same way, the rig count would drop to 642! The bloodletting in the industry would be enormous.....


Needless to say there are thousands of layoffs rippling through the oil patch today.  Lots of personal bankruptcies coming.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/oil-price-soars-rig-count-plunges-worst-ever-bloodletting-just-beginning.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/oil-price-soars-rig-count-plunges-worst-ever-bloodletting-just-beginning.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wehappyfew on January 31, 2015, 08:08:38 PM
I live near Dallas / Ft Worth TX - where the headquarters for many oil drilling service companies are located.

I take a walk every evening for my health - one of the nicest areas to walk is a nearby subdivision with $1-2 million dollar McMansions. It is a stable, established neighborhood - I have rarely seen a house up for sale there in 9 years.

Now there are 8 for sale in the past month. All priced over a million US$.

Coincidence?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2015, 11:52:27 PM
Chevron abandons fracking in Poland.
Quote
LONDON — Chevron said on Friday that it would abandon efforts to find and produce natural gas from shale rock in Poland, in perhaps the biggest setback yet to fledgling efforts to start a European shale oil and gas industry that might help replace the region’s dwindling fuel resources.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/business/international/chevron-to-abandon-shale-venture-in-poland-a-setback-to-fracking-europe.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/business/international/chevron-to-abandon-shale-venture-in-poland-a-setback-to-fracking-europe.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 02, 2015, 03:18:49 PM
Citizen pressure helps ban fracking in much of England.
Quote
Fracking is set to be banned on two-fifths of the land in England being offered for shale gas exploration by the government, according to a Guardian analysis.

Such a wide-ranging ban would be a significant blow to the UK’s embryonic fracking industry, which David Cameron and George Osborne have enthusiastically backed.
...
Ministers were forced to accept Labour’s new environmental rules last week to avoid a rebellion by Conservative and LibDem backbench MPs, many of whom are facing opposition to fracking from constituents.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/02/fracking-set-to-be-banned-from-40-of-englands-shale-areas (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/02/fracking-set-to-be-banned-from-40-of-englands-shale-areas)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 02, 2015, 05:38:00 PM
This is going to leave a mark.

Canada Mauled by Oil Bust, Job Losses Pile Up – Housing Bubble, Banks at Risk

Quote
Ratings agency Fitch had already warned about Canada’s magnificent housing bubble that is even more magnificent than the housing bubble in the US that blew up so spectacularly. “High household debt relative to disposable income” – at the time hovering near a record 164% – “has made the market more susceptible to market stresses like unemployment or interest rate increases,” it wrote back in July.

On September 30, the Bank of Canada warned about the housing bubble and what an implosion would do to the banks: It’s so enormous and encumbered with so much debt that a “sharp correction in house prices” would pose a risk to the “stability of the financial system” [Is Canada Next? Housing Bubble Threatens “Financial Stability”].

Then in early January, oil-and-gas data provider CanOils found that “less than 20%” of the leading 50 Canadian oil and gas companies would be able to sustain their operations long-term with oil at US$50 per barrel (WTI last traded at $47.85). “A significant number of companies with high-debt ratios were particularly vulnerable right now,” it said. “The inevitable write-downs of assets that will accompany the falling oil price could harm companies’ ability to borrow,” and “low share prices” may prevent them from raising more money by issuing equity.

In other words, these companies, if the price of oil stays low for a while, are going to lose a lot of money, and the capital markets are going to turn off the spigot just when these companies need that new money the most. Fewer than 20% of them would make it through the bust....

Quote
On Wednesday, Statistics Canada rejiggered its job creation and unemployment numbers by slashing the number of jobs created in 2014 to a mere 121,000. December proved to be even drearier than previously reported: a total of 11,300 jobs were lost.

Now layoffs have begun to cascade through the Canadian oil patch, with 20,000 to 25,000 job cuts already announced so far. They will trigger additional job cuts in other industries. Plus Target’s 17,500 cuts to hit when it leaves Canada. Alberta’s Labor Minister, Ric McIver, told AM 770 on Saturday that the number of unemployed workers would jump by 22%.....

I can imagine how intense the conversations between Western officials and the Saudi's must be getting about now.

I saw my first ND plated pickup piled high with all their possessions pull into to town here in AZ the other day.  Friends and family in the oil business tell me that panic is right below the surface and that people are being let go every day.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/02/01/oil-bust-socks-it-to-canada-job-losses-pile-up-housing-bubble-banks-at-risk/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/02/01/oil-bust-socks-it-to-canada-job-losses-pile-up-housing-bubble-banks-at-risk/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2015, 01:29:08 AM
In Major Walkout, U.S. Oil Workers Demand Safety, Fair Treatment
Quote
Citing dangerous conditions, including leaks and explosions, and asking for pay increases, the United Steelworkers Union (USW) called for its largest national strike of oil workers since 1980 on Sunday after talks broke down with Shell Oil, which is leading the industry-wide bargaining effort. After nearly two weeks of negotiations, USW asked about 3,800 workers at nine refineries to walk out after their previous contract expired in what represents about 10 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/02/3617967/oil-workers-strike-treatment-wages-safety/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/02/3617967/oil-workers-strike-treatment-wages-safety/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on February 03, 2015, 11:07:44 AM
Peru's indigenous people protest against relicensing of oil concession
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/02/perus-indigenous-people-protest-against-re-licensing-of-oil-concession (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/02/perus-indigenous-people-protest-against-re-licensing-of-oil-concession)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on February 03, 2015, 11:15:20 AM
'Missing Oil' from 2010 BP Spill Found on Gulf Seafloor
http://www.livescience.com/49664-deepwater-horizon-missing-oil.html (http://www.livescience.com/49664-deepwater-horizon-missing-oil.html)

I thought it was already clear that part of the oil was at the bottom...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 03, 2015, 04:06:19 PM
As some have pointed out the huge drop in oil prices had great potential to put a permanent end to part of the North Sea oil production.  Looks like it is picking up steam.

Quote
Shell to dismantle North Sea oil platforms after four decades

Quote
A chapter in the history of oil production in the North Sea is about to end as Royal Dutch Shell seeks approval to decommission its platforms of the Brent field which have produced 10pc of the region’s oil and gas since 1976....

....As North Sea fields begin to run dry over the next 25 years, it is estimated £40bn will have to be spent removing redundant platforms and pipelines as well as plugging spent oil wells.
Around 16bn barrels of oil is thought to be recoverable from the UK’s North Sea but production rates have declined as companies have been forced to drill deeper and invest more capital....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11385685/Shell-to-dismantle-North-Sea-oil-platforms-after-four-decades.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11385685/Shell-to-dismantle-North-Sea-oil-platforms-after-four-decades.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2015, 03:24:17 AM
The next chapter in the oil industry: 
UK can become a world-class hub for decommissioning oil platforms
Quote
But it’s far from a gloomy scenario. North Sea oil and gas fields offer the UK the chance to create a world-class hub for the safe and responsible decommissioning of platforms and pipelines. We have the potential to develop expertise that can be exported throughout the world, from the Gulf of Mexico to the South China Sea, and create thousands of highly skilled jobs.

Over the next 30 years, almost all the 470 offshore installations in the North Sea’s UK Continental Shelf, such as platforms, will need to be decommissioned, according to Oil & Gas UK’s Economic Report 2013. That means expenditure of between £35bn and £50bn, at least as much as the UK government plans to spend on our railway network over the next five years.
...
Decommissioning suggests that work winds down as production dries up. But that’s not the case. The decommissioning of Brent will run for more than 10 years. It will require around 1,000 skilled people working offshore as well as more people working onshore, including many engineers.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/03/uk-can-become-a-world-class-hub-for-decommissioning-oil-platforms (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/03/uk-can-become-a-world-class-hub-for-decommissioning-oil-platforms)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 04, 2015, 05:41:09 PM
Sigmetnow

These kind of numbers are part of why I caution all the time on our present and future inability to be able to pay for all the infrastructure changes required by following various BAU paths.

 Extrapolate the above numbers across the entire fossil fuel industry and you end up with numbers which would require a significant percentage of the available total capital.  This is the Gulf of Mexico data from 2 years ago:

Quote
Over the years, GOM has developed into an area with an extensive installed operational infrastructure housing more than 3,275 platforms, 669 subsea units including 503 subsea satellite template wells and 6,855 pipelines, according to data compiled by Infield energy analysts....


 Of course one could just abandon the facilities and let the scavengers take them apart I guess.  We could have a bunch of little Chernobyls scattered around. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 05, 2015, 06:34:21 PM
Magnitude 4.1 earthquake leads to shutdown of injection well in Oklahoma.
Quote
Staff at the Oklahoma Corporation Commission directed that an injection well operated by SandRidge Energy be shut down Tuesday due to continuing earthquakes in Alfalfa County near the Kansas border.
http://m.tulsaworld.com/news/local/state-orders-injection-well-shut-down-after-northwestern-oklahoma-earthquake/article_4184d155-d9b2-523d-a8d5-033174ff8584.html (http://m.tulsaworld.com/news/local/state-orders-injection-well-shut-down-after-northwestern-oklahoma-earthquake/article_4184d155-d9b2-523d-a8d5-033174ff8584.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 06, 2015, 08:57:48 PM
Wales says No to fracking "until proven safe."
Quote
On Wednesday, the Welsh parliament voted in favor of a measure calling on the government to prevent fracking from taking place “until it is proven to be safe in both an environmental and public health context.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/05/3619612/wales-says-no-to-fracking/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/05/3619612/wales-says-no-to-fracking/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2015, 01:37:32 AM
@CIRonline: Here's a time-lapse of 12,950 earthquakes from 2000 to Jan. 2015. Keep your eye on Oklahoma
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=786348784789375&id=502866473137609&_rdr
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2015, 07:32:40 PM
OPEC report says non-OPEC countries' oil pumping growth will slow in 2015 due to lower oil prices.
[WTI is currently at $51.67.]

Quote
“The main factors for the lower growth prediction in 2015 are price expectations, a declining number of active rigs in North America, a decrease in drilling permits in the U.S. and a reduction in the 2015 spending plans of international oil companies,” OPEC’s Vienna-based research department said in its monthly market report.
...
U.S. oil supply will increase 820,000 barrels a day in 2015 to 13.64 million a day, about half the gain recorded in 2014, according to the report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/opec-cuts-forecast-for-u-s-oil-supply-growth-after-price-rout (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/opec-cuts-forecast-for-u-s-oil-supply-growth-after-price-rout)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2015, 12:29:23 AM
Lol.  "Experts."  Gotta love 'em. ::)
Quote
The outlook on oil prices is clear: Oil will crash. Unless prices surge. Definitely one or the other.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/these-experts-know-exactly-where-oil-prices-are-headed (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/these-experts-know-exactly-where-oil-prices-are-headed)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2015, 03:10:27 AM
Citibank: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC'
This time is different.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/citi-oil-could-plunge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/citi-oil-could-plunge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec-)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 10, 2015, 05:24:16 PM
Citibank: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC'
This time is different.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/citi-oil-could-plunge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/citi-oil-could-plunge-to-20-and-this-might-be-the-end-of-opec-)

This..

Quote
"It looks exceedingly unlikely for OPEC to return to its old way of doing business," Morse wrote. "While many analysts have seen in past market crises 'the end of OPEC,' this time around might well be different," Morse said.

is just confused.

OPEC does not exist as a Cartel which fixes prices and has not for a long time.  OPEC is a trade association these days and countries like Saudi Arabia have no interest in ever returning to the cartel state.  Many past actions taken by OPEC were purely driven by politics and not business.  those days are over.  OPEC is NOT going to coddle the US and European countries any more and this is especially true for Saudi.  It is business from now on.  The low cost producer wins and the high cost (fracking and tar sands and such) will lose.  Saudi's actions are surely predatory, but they make prefect business sense and should be viewed in that light. 

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2015, 02:25:07 AM
8-Year Fracking Moratorium Bill Introduced in Maryland.  Compare to New York and California.
http://ecowatch.com/2015/02/06/fracking-moratorium-maryland/ (http://ecowatch.com/2015/02/06/fracking-moratorium-maryland/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 11, 2015, 05:26:15 PM
Yup.  And then there is this.  It will pretty much completely overwhelm anything that Maryland or NY/CA might do.

Quote
Drillers Take Second Crack at Fracking Old Wells to Cut Cost

Beset by falling prices, the oil industry is looking at about 50,000 existing wells in the U.S. that may be candidates for a second wave of fracking, using techniques that didn’t exist when they were first drilled.

New wells can cost as much as $8 million, while re-fracking costs about $2 million, significant savings when the price of crude is hovering close to $50 a barrel, according to Halliburton Co., the world’s biggest provider of hydraulic fracturing services.
While re-fracking offered mixed results in the past, earning it the nickname “pump and pray,” the oil crash is forcing companies to pursue new technologies to produce oil more cheaply. Analyzing reams of data from older wells has become a key piece of the puzzle, identifying the best candidates for re-fracking instead of picking them simply at random, said Hans-Christian Freitag, vice president of integrated technology at Baker Hughes Inc.
“You want to talk about the next step to increasing production without increasing costs?” said Carl Larry, Houston-based director of oil and natural gas at Frost & Sullivan, a consulting firm. “Re-fracking looks great.”.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/drillers-take-second-crack-at-fracking-wells-to-cut-cost-energy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/drillers-take-second-crack-at-fracking-wells-to-cut-cost-energy)

And then you have the several hundred thousand stripper wells.  What about them?  This is not going away as long as we continue along our BAU path.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2015, 07:38:28 PM
Environmental groups are supporting striking oil workers.

@billmckibben: Glad to hear that local [350.org] groups are joining striking oil workers on the picket line
http://350.org/oil-workers-strike-for-safety-reflects-danger-of-fossil-fuels/ (http://350.org/oil-workers-strike-for-safety-reflects-danger-of-fossil-fuels/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 12, 2015, 03:47:44 PM
The fundamental reason oil prices will stay low for some time.  See chart(s).

Quote
.The chart shows that demand exceeded supply through the 4th quarter of 2013. That’s why oil prices were high in much of 2013 and in the first half of 2014. Supply has exceeded demand for all of 2014. That’s why oil prices fell (a lag before the market reacts to a change in supply-demand balance is common).

The difference between supply and demand was greatest in the 2nd quarter of 2014 (1.27 mmbpd supply surplus) and then it dropped to 0.84 and 0.81 mmbpd in the 3rd and 4th quarters, respectively. Better but still too much of a supply surplus.

EIA publishes monthly supply and demand data, and a forecast. The second chart incorporates that data.

IEA World Demand Price Rebound
World monthly liquids supply, demand and 2015 forecast. Data to the right of the vertical dashed line is an estimate. Source: EIA

This chart shows that production fell from its high in October 2014 but so has demand. The difference between supply and demand in October was a 1.19 mmbpd supply surplus. It fell to 0.68 mmbpd in December but has increased to 0.97 mmbpd in January 2015 (world demand usually falls in the first part of the year).

That is better but still too much of a supply surplus. EIA data says the U.S. production continues to increase as expected but not part of a reason for an oil price bottom or rebound.

I don’t have a lot of confidence in forecasts but let’s understand what EIA’s forecast means. It suggests that supply and demand will be almost in balance in February 2015 but that the supply surplus will return in force in March. After that, the gap will narrow and by September 2015, balance will return and remain through the end of the year.

That is when oil prices may start to rebound.....

Hmm maybe not.  We'll see.  The problem is that having supply exceed demand for almost 2 years will result in massive amounts of surplus oil being stored everywhere.  (if it is sucked out of the ground you can't put it back).  How long will it take to work off that surplus.  And what will demand be in late 2015?  So, a slow rise maybe but not probably a big rise for another 6 months?? A year?  One can make a decent argument that oil could stay low for several years.  It mostly depends on the status of the world economy and how that affects demand.  Who knows where that goes.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/wont-see-oil-price-rebound-yet.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/wont-see-oil-price-rebound-yet.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 12, 2015, 06:49:52 PM
The linked article discusses Shell's recent call for the Oil & Gas industry to take a more active role in fighting against climate change.  To me this indicates how desperate our situation is becoming as we continue to follow a BAU pathway year after year:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/shell-calls-on-big-oil-peers-to-speak-up-on-climate-change (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/shell-calls-on-big-oil-peers-to-speak-up-on-climate-change)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 12:11:28 AM
Quote
The World’s Top 200 Public Fossil Fuel Companies Ranked by the Carbon Content of their Fossil Fuel Reserves

The Carbon Underground 200 identifies the top 100 public coal companies globally and the top 100 public oil and gas companies globally, ranked by the potential carbon emissions content of their reported reserves. The reserves of these companies total 555 gigatons (Gt) of potential CO2 emissions, almost five times more than can be burned for the world to have an 80% chance of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C (3.6° F).
http://fossilfreeindexes.com/research/the-carbon-underground/ (http://fossilfreeindexes.com/research/the-carbon-underground/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 01:20:41 AM
Why the Number of Oil Rigs May Not Matter Anymore
Quote
The number of oil rigs drilling new wells in the U.S. has collapsed at an unprecedented rate. The weekly number has gathered a huge following as investors try to figure out when the crash in oil prices has reached its bottom. Strangely, the number may be irrelevant.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/this-chart-shows-why-the-number-of-oil-rigs-may-not-matter-anymore (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/this-chart-shows-why-the-number-of-oil-rigs-may-not-matter-anymore)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 08:56:58 PM
Rigs idled.  Jobs lost.  "But we're still producing more than we did 8 months ago," per the video.  WTI currently $52.67.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/number-of-u-s-oil-rigs-continue-to-tumble (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/number-of-u-s-oil-rigs-continue-to-tumble)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 15, 2015, 04:24:33 PM
The market has temporarily bouyed the price of oil mostly based upon the news of the continuing drop in rig counts.  The idea being that this means that the bottom is near and prices will steadily rise.    Plus there is some covering of short positions and such.

But production continues to climb.  Crunch time comes when storage starts to reach its limits.  Then even if you wanted to buy the oil you have no place to put it.  Expect a big correction when that sets in.

Quote
The fracking-for-oil boom started in 2005, collapsed by 60% during the Financial Crisis when money ran out, but got going in earnest after the Fed had begun spreading its newly created money around the land. From the trough in May 2009 to its peak in October 2014, rigs drilling for oil soared from 180 to 1,609: multiplied by a factor of 9 in five years! And oil production soared, to reach 9.2 million barrels a day in January....

On the drilling side, the bust began in mid-October last year, after the price had been plunging for over three months. At that time, 1,609 rigs were actively drilling for oil, according to Baker Hughes. Since then, week after week, drillers were idling rigs as fast as they could.

In the latest reporting week, drillers idled another 84 rigs, the second biggest weekly cut ever, after idling 94 rigs two weeks earlier. Only 1056 rigs are still drilling for oil, down 443 for the seven reporting weeks so far this year and down 553 – or 34%! – from the peak in October.

Never before has the rig count plunged this fast this far:

Check chart here.

Quote
The natural gas fiasco has shown that a price that falls below the cost of production is no incentive to cut production for the industry as a whole, as long as it gets new money to drill into the ground. The Fed’s boundless liquidity and its interest-rate repression have seen to it. But the emphasis is on producing more with less – and paper over the losses.

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the last reporting week fell by 14 to 300, the lowest since May 1993, having collapsed by 81% since 2008:...

But natural gas production is still soaring from record to record. And the price destruction continues to this day.

Check chart here.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2015, 01:00:43 AM
Not just a "nuisance."
Quote
Small earthquakes shaking Oklahoma and southern Kansas daily and linked to energy drilling are dramatically increasing the chance of bigger and dangerous quakes, federal research indicates.
http://www.pressherald.com/2015/02/15/study-oklahomas-daily-small-quakes-increase-risk-of-big-ones/ (http://www.pressherald.com/2015/02/15/study-oklahomas-daily-small-quakes-increase-risk-of-big-ones/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2015, 01:37:47 AM
Lengthy article examining the impact of a carbon capture and storage lignite coal plant in Kemper, Mississippi.
http://exp.grist.org/clean-coal (http://exp.grist.org/clean-coal)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2015, 06:56:31 PM
Quote
Germany has proposed a draft law that would allow commercial shale gas fracking at depths of over 3,000 metres, overturning a de facto moratorium that has been in place since the start of the decade
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/14/germany-legalise-fracking-shale-gas-hydraulic-fracturing (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/14/germany-legalise-fracking-shale-gas-hydraulic-fracturing)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2015, 09:14:52 PM
Quote
Apache Corp.’s decision to sharply curb the growth of its oil output this year suggests that the major U.S. shale producers who helped create a global oil glut will be able to reduce supplies faster than expected.

One of the biggest operators in Texas’s prolific Permian basin, Apache will cut the number of rigs it uses to drill for oil by 70 percent by the end of the month, the company said Thursday in a statement. That’s going to slow output enough to keep production flat for the year, compared with the Houston-based company’s November forecast for growth of as much as 12 percent.
...
Apache’s production cuts underscore how completely oil markets have changed amid an unexpected U.S. energy renaissance. Now, instead of Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies controlling world prices, the pressure is on U.S. drillers such as Apache to rebalance the market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/this-producer-shows-how-the-u-s-can-put-brakes-on-shale-i62hws30 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/this-producer-shows-how-the-u-s-can-put-brakes-on-shale-i62hws30)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2015, 03:25:38 PM
West Virginia In State Of Emergency After Massive Oil Train Explosion
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/17/3623474/west-virginia-derailment/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/17/3623474/west-virginia-derailment/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on February 19, 2015, 09:32:37 AM
Canadian mounties' secret memo casts doubt on climate change threat
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/18/canadian-mounties-target-anti-oil-activists-in-secret-memo (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/18/canadian-mounties-target-anti-oil-activists-in-secret-memo)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 19, 2015, 04:20:02 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/wolf-richter-chilling-thing-devon-energy-just-said-us-oil-glut.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/02/wolf-richter-chilling-thing-devon-energy-just-said-us-oil-glut.html)

One can understand the business decisions being made by the oil companies.  You do what you can to make your payments and roll over the debt or you die.  But the implications for oil prices are down down down..

Quote
....

With total operating revenues of nearly $6 billion in the fourth quarter 2014, Devon isn’t the largest oil company out there, but it’s one of the larger players in the US shale revolution....

 CEO John Richels explained the phenomenon in the press release:

We expect to sustain operational momentum in 2015 with the significant improvements we have seen in our completion designs and a capital program focused on development drilling. With strong results from our enhanced completions and a focus on core development areas, we expect growth in oil production to be between 20 and 25 percent in 2015, even with a projected reduction of approximately 20 percent in E&P capital spending compared to 2014.

So, despite slashing the capital expenditure budget by 20%, the company’s oil production in 2015 would grow 20% to 25%....

Devon will drill $1.1 billion in capital expenditures into the ground to achieve its oil production goals. It will use fewer rigs but accomplish more with them: its drill times, thanks to innovation, have improved by 47% over the last three years. And these rigs will be focused “almost exclusively” in DeWitt County, its most productive play in the Eagle Ford shale.

Other drillers are doing the same. Innovation, design improvements, efficiencies, and a relentless focus on the most productive plays will see to it that production continues to rise, despite the plunging rig count, despite the evaporating capital expenditures, despite the layoffs.

They will lose money. They have a lot of debt because the fracking boom was funded by debt. To stay alive, they must meet their interest costs. But if they slow down drilling, and production tapers off in line with the steep decline rates of fracked wells, their interest costs might eat up 50% or more of their shrinking operating profits, and the risk of default would soar – turning off the money-spigot entirely. Default might be next.

This is the brutal irony: drillers are hoping that rising production achieved with greater efficiencies allows them to meet their interest costs; but rising production pressures the price of oil to a level that may not be survivable long-term for many of them. They can lose money, burn through cash, and keep themselves above water through asset sales for only so long. And this is the terrible fracking treadmill they’ve all gotten on and now can’t get off.

This is not going to end well.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 21, 2015, 01:27:45 AM
Natural gas drilling is causing earthquakes in Europe, too.
http://grist.org/politics/gas-drilling-is-causing-earthquakes-in-europe-too/ (http://grist.org/politics/gas-drilling-is-causing-earthquakes-in-europe-too/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 21, 2015, 03:47:32 PM
The following Bloomberg analysis indicates that the price of crude oil could drop as low as $10 a barrel:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-16/oil-prices-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-16/oil-prices-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on February 22, 2015, 06:02:27 AM
here are your 1,000 (10,000???) words. . .

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsi.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBN-HA337_ERPGAS_G_20150218174738.jpg&hash=043dc2c98ece19bb161ff689732a1c26)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 25, 2015, 01:43:16 PM
North Sea oil and gas industry suffers worst losses in decades
Oil & Gas UK says industry lost £5.3bn in 2104 and that without sustained investment critical infrastructure will disappear, leaving oil and gas in the ground.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/24/north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry-suffers-worst-losses-in-decades (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/24/north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry-suffers-worst-losses-in-decades)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on February 27, 2015, 04:48:08 PM
Quote
How Much Crude Oil Do You Consume On A Daily Basis?

Oil. The commodity. We know what it’s worth – at least we thought we did – but what does a barrel of the black stuff get you in real life? Before we get theoretical, let’s first consider how much oil you use.....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Do-You-Consume-On-A-Daily-Basis.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/How-Much-Crude-Oil-Do-You-Consume-On-A-Daily-Basis.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 01, 2015, 11:48:15 PM
Quote
...on Monday Royal Dutch Shell announced it was shelving plans to build a new tar sands mine in northern Alberta — the largest such project to be deferred.
...
Tar sands are extremely GHG intensive, and the shelving of the Pierre River project along with two other tar sands endeavors — Total’s Joslyn North and Statoil’s Corner Project — has helped avoid the emissions of 2.8 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to stopping the construction of 18 new coal plants with a lifespan of four decades
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/25/3626863/shell-shelves-tar-sands-project/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/25/3626863/shell-shelves-tar-sands-project/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2015, 04:52:56 PM
Oklahoma Geological Survey scientists have suspected for years that oil and gas operations in the state were causing a swarm of earthquakes, but in public they rejected such a connection.
Quote
When the Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) did cautiously agree with other scientists about such a link, emails obtained by EnergyWire show the state seismologist was called into meetings with his boss, University of Oklahoma President David Boren, and oil executives "concerned" about the acknowledgement.

One of the oilmen was Continental Resources Chairman Harold Hamm, a leading donor to the university.

The seismologist, Austin Holland, told a senior U.S. Geological Survey official that as far back as 2010, OGS officials believed an earthquake swarm near Oklahoma City might have been triggered by the "Hunton dewatering," an oil and gas project east of the city.

"Since early 2010 we have recognized the potential for the Jones earthquake swarm to be due to the Hunton dewatering," Holland wrote to USGS science adviser Bill Leith in 2013. "But until we can demonstrate that scientifically or not we were not going to discuss that publicly."

Instead, he pointed to changing lake levels.

And when USGS officials linked a "remarkable" surge in earthquakes in Oklahoma and other states to drilling waste disposal in 2012, OGS criticized their "rush to judgment."
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060014342 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060014342)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2015, 06:07:46 PM
The Price of Oil Is About to Blow a Hole in Corporate Accounting
Quote
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires drillers to calculate the value of their oil reserves every year using average prices from the first trading days in each of the previous 12 months. Because oil didn’t start its freefall to about $45 till after the OPEC meeting in late November, companies in their latest regulatory filings used $95 a barrel to figure out how much oil they could profitably produce and what it’s worth. Of the 12 days that went into the fourth-quarter average, crude was above $90 a barrel on 10 of them.

So Continental Resources Inc., led by billionaire Harold Hamm, reported last month that the present value of its oil and gas operations increased 13 percent last year to $22.8 billion. For Devon Energy Corp., a pioneer of hydraulic fracturing, it jumped 31 percent to $27.9 billion.

This year tells a different story. The average price on the first trading days of January, February and March was $51.28 a barrel. That means a lot of pain -- and writedowns -- are in store when drillers’ first-quarter numbers are announced in April and May.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/oil-at-95-a-barrel-discovered-in-sec-rules-on-reserves (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/oil-at-95-a-barrel-discovered-in-sec-rules-on-reserves)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Revillo on March 04, 2015, 07:06:03 PM
Shell to start drilling for oil in the Chukchi sea in 2015

Quote
Add to this potential nightmare scenario another little fact: Shell has garnered a well-deserved reputation as “the company with the spottiest Arctic record.” In September 2012, it initiated exploration drilling in U.S. Arctic waters with a conditional permit from the Obama administration, only to end a disastrous year in which one of its two drill rigs, the Kulluk, was grounded in the Gulf of Alaska on New Year’s Eve. The other ship, Noble Discoverer, suffered damage after catching fire, while both were fined by the Environmental Protection Agency for violating the Clean Air Act, and the contractor Noble Drilling pleaded guilty in 2014 to all eight felony charges leveled against it for environmental violations and agreed to ante up $12.2 million in fines and community service payments. Because of the damage to its rigs, Shell was forced to give up its 2013 drilling plans. A court ruling in January 2014 in favor of local Iñupiat tribes and environmentalists forced the company not to drill that summer either.

Since then, the price of oil has plunged, sending a shock wave across the oil industry and deep-sixing all sorts of prospective plans planet-wide to drill in Arctic waters: Norway’s Statoil shelved its 2015 drilling plan in the Barents Sea off that country’s northern coast and handed back the three leases it had purchased in the Baffin Bay off the west coast of Greenland. Chevron put its plan to drill in Canada’s Beaufort Sea on indefinite hold. Following the Ukraine crisis and American sanctions on Russia, ExxonMobil wasprohibited from working with the oil company Rosneft on a joint plan to drill in the Kara Sea in the Russian Arctic. Even had those sanctions not been in place, the low price of oil would have made such exploration a far less appetizing prospect for the moment.

“It is up to Shell then to keep the oil industry’s Arctic dreams alive,” one journalist suggested and indeed, on January 29th, that company announced that, after a two-year hiatus, it would drill this summer in the Chukchi Sea. Two weeks later, the Obama administration issued its final supplemental environmental impact statement on the site where the drilling would take place, the controversial Chukchi Lease Sale 193, bringing Shell’s plan one step closer to reality.

http://www.thenation.com/article/199865/royal-dutch-shell-wants-look-oil-most-dangerous-drilling-environment-world (http://www.thenation.com/article/199865/royal-dutch-shell-wants-look-oil-most-dangerous-drilling-environment-world)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 05, 2015, 03:28:26 PM
There is a lot of propaganda coming out of the oil and gas industry right now.  But the bottom line is becoming the ceiling fast.

It is the ripple effect that gets you.  If it was just one company going and the rest motoring on it would not matter much except to the small number intimately involved.  When it is an industry it is different as each one going down tends to drag the one next to it along with it. You don't pay your bills then the guy you owe can't pay his and so on.  Like dominos.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/wolf-richter-default-monday-oil-gas-companies-face-creditors.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/wolf-richter-default-monday-oil-gas-companies-face-creditors.html)

Quote
Debt funded the fracking boom. Now oil and gas prices have collapsed, and so has the ability to service that debt. The oil bust of the 1980s took down 700 banks, including 9 of the 10 largest in Texas. But this time, it’s different. This time, bondholders are on the hook.

And these bonds – they’re called “junk bonds” for a reason – are already cracking. Busts start with small companies and proceed to larger ones. “Bankruptcy” and “restructuring” are the terms that wipe out stockholders and leave bondholders and other creditors to tussle over the scraps......
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 05, 2015, 10:11:23 PM
New study calculates the climate damage costs of fossil fuels, at a consumer level (gallons and kWh).
http://qz.com/355923/if-we-paid-for-the-hidden-cost-of-emissions-gas-would-be-6-25-a-gallon/ (http://qz.com/355923/if-we-paid-for-the-hidden-cost-of-emissions-gas-would-be-6-25-a-gallon/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on March 05, 2015, 10:18:15 PM
BC research and Obamascience, for sure. The authors don't know the full extent of the climate catastrophe and therefore cannot divide it into gallons and dollars. Pure Obamascience BC, I tell ya.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 06, 2015, 07:11:19 AM
A BNSF Railway train loaded with crude oil derailed and caught fire on Thursday afternoon in a rural area south of Galena, Illinois

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 06, 2015, 04:34:05 PM
Ahh yes!  Not to worry it is just a corporate geo-engineering effort to warm up the Midwest from an unusually cold winter.  Move along now.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 06, 2015, 07:44:32 PM
Third oil train fire in as many weeks was supposedly using safer cars.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/06/3630622/another-bakken-oil-train-derailment/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/06/3630622/another-bakken-oil-train-derailment/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 07, 2015, 07:58:04 PM
Canada: This is the third CN derailment in northern Ontario [in] less than a month, and the second in the same area.
Quote
GOGAMA, Ont. -- A CN Rail train carrying crude oil derailed early Saturday in northern Ontario, causing numerous tank cars to catch fire and spill into a local river system, the railway and provincial police say.
http://www.cp24.com/news/fire-burning-after-train-carrying-crude-oil-derails-in-northern-ontario-1.2268690 (http://www.cp24.com/news/fire-burning-after-train-carrying-crude-oil-derails-in-northern-ontario-1.2268690)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on March 08, 2015, 07:40:29 AM
Feb 2015 petroleum data from the EIA indicates a jump in consumption to ~19.5mbpd compared to 18.0-18.5mpbd the last few Februaries. It's the highest rate since Feb 2009. It's now clearly on the rise since gas prices fell precipitously last fall.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 08, 2015, 01:27:09 PM
Feb 2015 petroleum data from the EIA indicates a jump in consumption to ~19.5mbpd compared to 18.0-18.5mpbd the last few Februaries. It's the highest rate since Feb 2009. It's now clearly on the rise since gas prices fell precipitously last fall.
I would imagine some of the increase is due to the severe weather this February in the eastern U.S.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2015, 11:06:26 AM
The linked article indicates that a combination of a record high surplus of crude oil supplies and a strengthening US dollar has driven the price of Brent crude oil down:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/09/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0M505B20150309 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/09/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0M505B20150309)


Extract: "Brent crude oil fell toward $59 a barrel on Monday as the dollar strengthened and a supply glut pushed global oil inventories to record highs."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 09, 2015, 04:42:24 PM
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/03/u-s-oil-production-still-surging (http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/03/u-s-oil-production-still-surging)

For those not familiar with many of the terms used in the Peal Oil discussions and what has been happening with oil production the last 10 years there is lots of good stuff in this article.  If one takes the time to look through the charts and read the explanations from Jeffery Brown in the comments they will understand why those knowledgeable about oil production state that the predictions about crude oil production peaking circa 2005 have so far proven to be correct.  And that increased 'liquids' production since then is actually an affirmation of the predictions and was expected.

Other notable points in the article are that US liquids production is still increasing in spite of the laying down of large numbers of rigs and it will continue to rise for up to 6 more months.  As storage facilities around the world continue to fill and approach 100% capacity this will put strong downward pressure on prices.  It is highly unlikely we have seen the bottom in prices yet.

As pointed out above consumption is rising in response to the lower prices at the pump.  A worrying trend but to be expected.  Strongly increased sales of large vehicles such as suv's and pickups will bake a lot of increased future consumption in unfortunately.  We will certainly pay an economic penalty for this.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2015, 06:51:04 PM
Lack of available storage space for oil may cause the next oil price crash.
Quote
... As oil prices have crashed, from more than $100 a barrel last summer to below $50 now, big trading companies are storing their crude in hopes of selling it for higher prices down the road. With U.S. production continuing to expand, that’s led to the fastest increase in U.S. oil inventories on record. For most of this year, the U.S. has added almost 1 million barrels a day to its stash of crude supplies. As of March 11, nationwide stocks were at 449 million barrels, by far the most ever.
...
If oil supplies do overwhelm the ability to store them, the U.S. will likely cut back on imports and finally slow down the pace of its own production, since there won’t be anywhere to put excess supply. Prices could also fall, perhaps by a lot. Morse and his team of analysts at Citigroup have predicted that sometime this spring, as tanks reach their limits, oil prices will again nosedive, potentially all the way to $20 a barrel. With no place to store crude, producers and trading companies would likely have to sell their oil to refineries at discounted prices, which could finally persuade producers to stop pumping.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-storage-squeeze-may-lead-to-another-price-crash (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-storage-squeeze-may-lead-to-another-price-crash)


Waiting for someone to suggest the surplus extracted oil should be stored back underground....   ::)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2015, 08:39:55 PM
On the other hand, oil companies are still managing to make money -- a lot of it -- by trading, betting on higher prices later.
Quote
Although better known for their oil fields, refineries, and petrol stations, BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA are also the world’s biggest oil traders, handling enough crude and refined products every day to meet the consumption of Japan, India, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.

The trio’s sway in commodities trading, largely unknown outside the industry, is set to pay off in 2015 as the bear market allows traders to generate higher returns by storing cheap oil today to sell at higher prices later and using lower prices to make more bets with the same capital.

“Volatility has increased dramatically over the last three or four months,” said Mike Conway, the head of Shell’s trading and supply business. “Parts of your business that are volatility driven are probably doing pretty well.”
...
The last time that a European oil major disclosed the profitability of its trading operation was a decade ago, when BP said it made $2.97 billion in 2005, or about 10 percent of the company’s total earnings that year.

Without giving away concrete financial results, the companies have indicated income from trading already rose in the fourth quarter of 2014 as oil prices fell.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-giants-in-europe-use-trading-prowess-to-profit-from-slump (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/oil-giants-in-europe-use-trading-prowess-to-profit-from-slump)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 14, 2015, 12:41:51 AM
It was an ugly day for oil.  Price down to $46, available storage filling up, and the estimate for 2015 production is raised, "since the large reduction in drilling has failed to slow output."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/it-s-another-ugly-day-for-oil (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-13/it-s-another-ugly-day-for-oil)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 14, 2015, 03:35:39 PM
The sucker rally is almost over.  I pointed out that the rise was just temporary and was based upon hype (to reel in the suckers and dump some bad investments on the unwary).  Production soars.  Storage fills.  And disaster awaits around the corner.

Expect much lower prices soon.

Here is some good info and some instructive charts.

Blood will continue to flow for some time yet.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/wolf-richter-us-oil-bust-just-got-worse.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/wolf-richter-us-oil-bust-just-got-worse.html)

Quote
..US oil drillers have been responding by slashing capital expenditures, including drilling, in a deceptively brutal manner. In the latest week, drillers idled 56 rigs that were classified as drilling for oil, according to Baker Hughes. Only 866 rigs were still active, down 46.2% from October, when they’d peaked at 1,609. In the 22 weeks since, drillers have taken out 743 rigs, the most dizzying cliff dive in the data series, and probably in history:..

So US oil production hit another record of 9.366 million barrels per day for the week ended March 6, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest estimate....

 Thousands of wells have been drilled recently but haven’t been completed and aren’t yet producing. This is the “fracklog,” a phenomenon that has been dogging natural gas for years.....

Crude oil stocks are now 78.9 million barrels, or 21.3%, higher than at this time last year....

So when is US storage capacity going to be full? That event would cause all sorts of havoc in the oil markets, including a terrible plunge in price. With no place to put their oil, some production companies would have to turn off the tap and leave the oil in the ground. That would bring production down in a hurry, but it would add to the pent-up supply, the “fracklog,” thus dragging out the bust even further....

So there is a very good chance that storage capacity will disappear as a death trap for the price of oil this year. But US oil production is likely to continue to rise, leaving the industry to face an even bigger oil glut and even more price mayhem next year. Yet production won’t start declining until the money runs out.

The price is going to stay down for quite some time.  There are going to be big ripple effects across the entire world.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on March 14, 2015, 11:52:39 PM
I would guess the main ripple effects on a global level might be increased demand for oil due to lower prices, as well as postponement of renewable projects that become less competitive. Bad things.
Economists wanted to avoid recessions in order for BAU to run without glitches ==> money printing ==> bubble of cheap credit ==> fracking boom with no real profits but with lots of output ==> oil plunge ==> hastening climate change and collapse
Sometimes I think the worst enemies are Central Bankers.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 04:55:16 AM
Just a point about the increase in SUV/pickup sales that has been reported following the downturn in oil prices.

Car companies still have to meet CAFE standards.  If they sell a larger number of inefficient vehicles early in the year then they must sell a higher proportion of efficient vehicles during the remainder of the year. 

That most likely means that they will raise the cost of inefficient vehicles and lower the cost of efficient vehicles in order to shift the market.  What will especially useful is selling EVs and PHEVs.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 05:53:44 AM
Dear Bob

Being overly optimistic is not going to do neither you nor the energy transition any good.

Let me tell you a personale tale about means of transportation in our family.

In the 1960ies, my dad drove a US Chevy – roughly  5 km/l of gasoline
In 1973 – after the oil crisis – he switched to a Dutch DAF – less than 10 km/l
In the 1980ies – he bought a Swedish Saab turbo – somewhere between 6 & 8 km/l
In the 90ies – I bought my first car – a Japanese Mazda 121  - on average 12-14 km/l
In 1998 – I bought an English Rover – less than 10 km/l
In 2000 – I bought a French Peugeot – roughly 12 km/l
In 2004 – my wife got a French Peugeot company car – close to 10 km/l
In 2010 – my wife got a new German Opel Insignia company car – less than 10 km/l
In 2014 – I sold my Peugeot and bought my wife a German Mercedes – 16-18 km/l of diesel
In 2015 – my oldest son has bought an old Peugeot – back to somewhere close to 12 km/l

I now take the (diesel!) train to work every day and my wife and son have both doubled their daily driving distances.

As you will see - in my lifetime - the average mileage of the cars has tripled, but the total daily driving distance is increasing rapidly as well, so the daily consumption of gasoline in our family has been more or less the same over the past 50 years.

One year ago, I was overly optimistic. Switching from a two-car family (doing roughly 10 km/l) to a one-car family again (doing more than 15 km/l) seemed like the right way to go (cutting 75 percent of fossil fuel consumption in one blow), but reality turned out to be more cruel than that.

I may consider buying a new plug-in hybrid one of these days to increase my own non-fossil fuel mobility, but the net result will be added fossil fuel consumption, no matter how much “green” electricity I can pull out of the plugs every night.

New technology is fine, but It doesn’t solve any of the issues we are discussing in this thread.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 06:18:53 AM
So if you, your son, and almost everyone else were driving EVs powered by electricity generated by solar panels and wind turbines  that would have no impact on oil?

And if we replaced the natural gas used for electricity generation and residential heating with electricity from renewable sources and biofuels there would be no impact on gas?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 04:18:42 PM
The poor young man cannot afford a PHEV or similar, so he was forced to buy an old wreck.

As long as we do not get those old gazz guzzlers off the roads, there will still be a market for them.

I also tried to illustrate the fact that changing life circumstances (# of kids) and corporate car fleet policies play a role. I tried to make the point, that mobility increases as you grow older (reluctance to move and salaries both increase).

I was not talking about gas for heating or any kind of substitution. Just making the point that transportation needs vary through life and that new technology is not a silver bullet.

Transporting a ton of batteries every time you go to the grocery store for a litre of milk is highly inefficient in my view.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 06:00:47 PM
New efficient cars, be they high MPG ICEVs, PHEVs or EVs, purchased at the front end make their way toward the used car markets.  And become the "old wrecks" of the future.

Right now, if your son could manage with a ~75 mile range, he could purchase a used Nissan Leaf for about $12k.  If he drives 10,000 miles a year he save about $1k per year on fuel and oil changes.  Perhaps a lot more on repairs.  Four to six years and the Leaf would pay for itself simply in savings.

There is an inefficiency in hauling around batteries.  But the ICEV you might drive is wasting about 80% of the energy in the gas it uses.  That is real inefficiency.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 06:09:48 PM
Leaf range too low to be useable?  I just checked used Chevy Volt prices.  The least expensive I found was $16k, which might be a budget strain.  But let's look at the math.

My credit union is now making 72 month loans on used cars for 2%.  Monthly payment, no money down, would be $236.

Driving most of his miles on electricity would make monthly payment more affordable because of the fuel savings.

Now, that's for a three year old car.  A few years from now there will be older used Volts (and Leafs) and the purchase prices will be lower.  At some point there will be 15, 20 year old PHEVs and EVs for sale.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 08:13:43 PM
Bob, you are living in a different world.

The cheapest 3y old Nissan Leaf costs more than $20k in this country. You can't borrow money to buy a used car in this country. He paid 1500 $ for his old wreck. All your math goes down the drain, when faced with these realities! You are a factor 10 off at least.

Apart from that, electricity prices (including taxes) are quite high here, so your calculus will never make any sense on this side of the pond.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 08:23:01 PM
Sorry, P-maker.  I don't know what country you live in.  I was giving you US information.

I'd be highly surprised if I was off by a factor of ten.  Being off on the price of a used Leaf or Volt by a factor of ten would make them $120,000 and $150,000 cars.  I doubt you'd have to pay 20% interest on a car loan.  $1.00/kWh?  $30.00/gallon?


How about telling us where you live and what prices you are seeing?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 08:49:03 PM
Bob, the factor of 10 was about the cost of an old wreck compared to a 3y old EV. As long as you can buy these wrecks (or rent them for that matter), you will not see any upswing in overall fuel efficiency.

On all threads, you are attacking sensible, sustainable, renewable  and energy efficient ways of living. How about giving a few details on how you live your life. What happened during your most recent 2 months of vacation. Did you take your Tesla S for a spin down the freeway or did you do something else?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 09:15:56 PM
Please show me one single time where I have attacked " sensible, sustainable, renewable  and energy efficient ways of living".
---

You failed to tell us in which country you live.

Yes, here in the US one can buy a used ICEV for well under $1,000.  But that used ICEV will use fuel every month and almost certainly have higher repair and maintenance costs than an EV. 

EVs and PHEVs are only a few years old.  Nissan started shipping Leafs in December, 2010 IIRC.  Eventually there will be 15 year old EVs and PHEVs.

Fifteen years from now the 'old wrecks' one can buy will be more efficient than today's 'old wrecks'.  Fleet mileages are increasing. 

How do I live my life? 

Most of my electricity comes from solar panels, has for about 25 years.  I minimize when I shop and I recycle.  I generally use stuff until it's really worn out, repair and continue using when practical.  Have for more than 25 years.  I've been an organic gardener, for more than 25 years.  I eat a minimal amount of meat.  I dry my clothes on a line.  I purchase the most efficient appliances I can find (and afford).  I drive half the US average by going shopping only twice a month (generally) and planning efficient routes when I do go.

I deviate from an energy limited lifestyle by taking the occasional long trip, generally by air.  This winter we traveled to Bangkok where my aging MIL lives and did a side trip to Sri Lanka.  Public transportation and all that.

I pay for my carbon sins by calculating my carbon footprint and purchasing carbon offsets.

Now, I could cut things finer, but I'm not willing to be a martyr.  I'll do more than most, but I won't take it to an extreme because even if I cut my carbon emission to zero that would not solve the world's problem.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 09:59:00 PM
Bob, you fit right into the typical scheme of a modern World traveller.

You spend about 60 percent of your budget on leisure travels - e.g. visiting your MIL.

As it happens, I also visited Sri Lanka in February this year. I took the Dreamliner - saving about 20 % of the fuel on an ordinary flight. The start in Sri Lanka was perfect - cruising down an almost empty  freeway in a Toyota Prius. The last day was terrible - winding our way down from the mountains in a 15y old Toyota Hiace.

Although my wife complains that my favourite blue shirt I bought in Tesco´s 15 years ago is worn out, I still cling on to it.

I don't live in a country per se. I try to make every trip important. If you can save more energy by going abroad and influence decision-makers, it is well worth the effort. On the local level, I stick to the principle of excercising more than you drive. Translated into practical terms, it means that if you take four youngsters in the car for a four hour drive, they each need to run for an hour to keep me happy.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Neven on March 15, 2015, 10:21:08 PM
Translated into practical terms, it means that if you take four youngsters in the car for a four hour drive, they each need to run for an hour to keep me happy.

In front of or behind the car?  ;D
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on March 15, 2015, 10:42:10 PM
Don't care as long as it's outside the car.

Afterwards you still need to consider their environmental foot prints:

Taking a swim in Swedish lake is fine, as long as they are clean afterwards. Taking a shower in a Danish public CDH environment is also fine. Even taking a dip in a German nuclear pool is fine with me. But diving into an Austrian cesspit - is just about taking it too far!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 15, 2015, 11:11:15 PM
Bob, you fit right into the typical scheme of a modern World traveller.

You spend about 60 percent of your budget on leisure travels - e.g. visiting your MIL.

As it happens, I also visited Sri Lanka in February this year. I took the Dreamliner - saving about 20 % of the fuel on an ordinary flight. The start in Sri Lanka was perfect - cruising down an almost empty  freeway in a Toyota Prius. The last day was terrible - winding our way down from the mountains in a 15y old Toyota Hiace.

Although my wife complains that my favourite blue shirt I bought in Tesco´s 15 years ago is worn out, I still cling on to it.

I don't live in a country per se. I try to make every trip important. If you can save more energy by going abroad and influence decision-makers, it is well worth the effort. On the local level, I stick to the principle of excercising more than you drive. Translated into practical terms, it means that if you take four youngsters in the car for a four hour drive, they each need to run for an hour to keep me happy.

A modern world traveler?  Hell, son, I'm a last century backpacker.  I have moved on to a small drag behind suitcase.  It's easier on old bones.

60%?  Maybe 20% (and my income is low).  And that's because I'm trying to jam in as much traveling as I can in the next few years before I'm not able to travel any longer. 

You rode around SL in cars and trucks?  How wasteful. I rode trains and some buses.  I did take a tuk-tuk a couple of times when it was too far to walk in the midday heat.

Look, we can play the "I'm greener than you" game but that's meaningless and way off topic.



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on March 16, 2015, 06:00:35 AM
"trying to jam in as much traveling as I can"

Sorry, Bob.

Stating that this is a high priority pretty well disqualifies you from claiming any real deep concern for GW. You just haven't really gotten the picture yet, somehow.

Thanks for helping us put the rest of your prattle into context, though.

ETA: Ah, I see you have a nice way to make yourself feel better: "I pay for my carbon sins by calculating my carbon footprint and purchasing carbon offsets."

I, too, have a handy little scheme to allay guilt for my sins. Maybe you should try this one, too!?:
http://www.cheatneutral.com/ (http://www.cheatneutral.com/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 16, 2015, 06:37:50 AM
Thank you for your guidance wili.

I will make it a point of beating myself soundly this evening.

Now, do you actually think that my taking the odd trip now and then and purchasing carbon offsets signals my non-concern for climate change?

Or are you just playing the fool?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on March 16, 2015, 07:15:10 AM
"I will make it a point of beating myself soundly this evening."

Wonderful! Now at last I can sleep happily in this knowledge. '-)

"do you actually think that my taking the odd trip..."

Depends on how odd the trip is! '-) But, yeah, essentially. Do you really think your 'offset' undoes the carbon you dumped into the atmosphere?

I don't have to play the fool! :P

You may well get there. But you're nowhere close enough, yet. Might want to start by brushing up on your Kantian ethics.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 16, 2015, 07:33:18 AM
Quote
Do you really think your 'offset' undoes the carbon you dumped into the atmosphere?

I can't guarantee it.  I don't personally measure what happens.

What I do is to figure out my annual carbon footprint and usually double that amount.  You can get info on calculating your carbon footprint and how to find an offset that is likely legit here -

http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/offsets.asp (http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/offsets.asp)

Early on I used tree planting programs and more recently used the money to purchase micro-solar systems.

I'm still looking for a place for my 2013 and 2014 money as the startup that I was using is now running on its own and not requesting funds.  (I haven't actually calculated my 2014 number nor done my income taxes yet.  That's an April thing.)

Now, am I doing wrong?  Would it be better if I did not travel and hung on to my money? 

What's your solution for having a zero carbon footprint?  How successful are you?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on March 16, 2015, 07:55:37 AM
If you like giving money to people you don't know, you can still do that without doing any flying (or just send the checks to me)  :).

In the old www.myfootprint.org (http://www.myfootprint.org), I was down to about 'one earth' before I went (mostly) vegan. (I haven't checked recently; they now charge.) Mostly cutting out all long distance travel (except for a bicycle trip or three every year) including flying was the biggest reduction for me, but also going meatless and now (mostly) vegan were big, too.

I should be clear that I'm not one of those who thinks that doing something high carbon could never be worth it. If one really were going to make a very significant policy difference by flying, say, to Washington, that might be worth it. But I gave up pretending that my personal presence was necessary for that kind of political impact. I mostly work with my students, then with the educational and other institutions I interact with, then some at the municipal and state level, and of course communicating regularly with my US congress folks.

Education and communication is mostly what I'm working on. I think we need a lot of that. The more people, especially young people, learn about the full extent of the problem, the more likely they are going to come up with approaches that old duffers like you and I couldn't dream up. Educating without totally bumming them out is a trick, but I always require some kind of direct action along with reflection.

Getting late here; time to turn in... 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 16, 2015, 08:17:50 AM
Where does your electricity come from?  Carbon free?

How do you offset the carbon it took to build your bike?

Do you think that you, Neven, and I have made a big dent in climate change by cutting our personal carbon footprints?  Do you see signs that we've started a mass movement that will prevent extreme climate change?

BTW, I just found out that one of the organizations selling carbon offsets is a large community forest near here.  I'm pretty confident that they aren't blowing smoke.  I know some of the people who have worked for years to bring these redwoods under non-profit control.

They may be the folks getting my offset money.  I've got to dig into things a bit more.

http://www.cityofarcata.org/departments/environmental-services/city-forests/forest-history (http://www.cityofarcata.org/departments/environmental-services/city-forests/forest-history)

http://www.climateactionreserve.org/how/projects/ (http://www.climateactionreserve.org/how/projects/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 16, 2015, 01:09:43 PM
Where does your electricity come from?  Carbon free?

How do you offset the carbon it took to build your bike?

Do you think that you, Neven, and I have made a big dent in climate change by cutting our personal carbon footprints?  Do you see signs that we've started a mass movement that will prevent extreme climate change?

BTW, I just found out that one of the organizations selling carbon offsets is a large community forest near here.  I'm pretty confident that they aren't blowing smoke.  I know some of the people who have worked for years to bring these redwoods under non-profit control.

They may be the folks getting my offset money.  I've got to dig into things a bit more.

http://www.cityofarcata.org/departments/environmental-services/city-forests/forest-history (http://www.cityofarcata.org/departments/environmental-services/city-forests/forest-history)

http://www.climateactionreserve.org/how/projects/ (http://www.climateactionreserve.org/how/projects/)

Ontario doesn't allow forestry offsets in their carbon trading market.  It is very interesting that California and Ontario have a shared carbon trading scheme (a combined market) but only California allows forests that have already been logged, and have little to no timber sale potential for the next 30 years, to be placed under "fallow" conditions and soak up carbon credits, allow for others to emit more carbon at a ridiculously low costs (when compared to the 100-year cost of carbon impact).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on March 16, 2015, 02:49:14 PM
"Where does your electricity come from?  Carbon free?"

Yep.

You're joking about the bike, right? It was used when I got it thirty years ago. The guy otherwise would have trashed it. If you want to know. (If I do need a new bike some day, I do think it would be cool to get (or make!?) one of those bamboo bikes. But I'm pretty sure my old bike will outlast me at this point.)

Look, in any case. I'm not claiming purity. Purity isn't the point.

The point is to bring one's own carbon emissions down as rapidly and greatly as possible and to encourage others to do the same. (While still doing what you can to educate yourselves and others and to influence policy...)

The fact is that we can all live fairly comfortable lives on a fraction of what most of us now consume, with no real sacrifice or suffering. I'm not starving. Indeed, I eat a much healthier diet than the average American. I also get more exercise. And can live with less money.

There are still things I need to do--more work on insulating the house; eating less in total, growing even more of my own food, and maybe a bit less beer (at that point, you are starting to talk about suffering and sacrifice!  :D) Staying closer to home makes me more connected to my community, imho.

Drastic reductions can come at no great loss, and frankly in improvement, of standard of living, if that means health and community. Not that at some point we shouldn't be willing to actually cut back to the point that it hurts some, too. If we were willing to do that for WWII, why not now?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2015, 03:50:50 PM
The linked article by The Financial Times indicates that the US shale industry is showing remarkable resilience which should keep crude oil prices low for years to come, which should keep carbon emissions high for some years to come:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/372e52bc-c98b-11e4-a2d9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UYn7X1Uc (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/372e52bc-c98b-11e4-a2d9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3UYn7X1Uc)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 16, 2015, 04:46:48 PM
I found a great must read/watch presentation from Arthur Berman (if you don't recognize the name that means you are probably not qualified to discuss much about the energy industry - just saying).

This is not about climate change but one thing that gets many in trouble when talking about our problems and how to fix them is that they do not understand the energy business - energy IS the economy and it is the population totals.  The oil and gas business has had and will have a huge impact on what can be done and what will be done.  One should pay close attention to it.

PEAK OIL - yes is it is real and yes it did happen just as predicted.  You will find good data here on why that statement is true - though the presentation is not about that particularly.  Never forget that most of what you are told by the media is propaganda and the more they piss on something the more likely it is true.  Remember how maligned the Limits to Growth reports are and they have a prefect track record going back over 40 years.  Peak Oil is a close competition to that.  What you hear about tar sands, and shale oil/gas is mostly lies.  Here are some facts.

It is long, but really well worth the time.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/debunking-americas-energy-fantasy-shale-gas-tight-oil-peak-next-decade.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/03/debunking-americas-energy-fantasy-shale-gas-tight-oil-peak-next-decade.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 16, 2015, 07:01:37 PM
JimD....great link....just finished watching the whole thing.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 16, 2015, 08:09:38 PM
More on the bloodbath..

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/15/liquidity-death-spiral-junk-bonds-oil-gas-energy-companies-reserves-redetermination/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/15/liquidity-death-spiral-junk-bonds-oil-gas-energy-companies-reserves-redetermination/)

And the beginnings of the government bailout..

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/13/us-government-bails-out-oil-industry-russia-pe-firms-the-saudis-venezuela-wall-street-but-slams-american-consumers/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/03/13/us-government-bails-out-oil-industry-russia-pe-firms-the-saudis-venezuela-wall-street-but-slams-american-consumers/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 17, 2015, 01:27:03 AM
Federal regulators quietly float overhaul for aging U.S. oil pipeline network.
Quote
Almost two years after an Exxon Mobil Corp. pipeline split open and sent Canadian crude flowing through a neighborhood in Mayflower, Ark., federal regulators have quietly proposed a sweeping rewrite of oil pipeline safety rules.
...
The oil and pipeline industries are already lobbying against the idea, saying PHMSA has overstepped its legal mandate.
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060015050 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060015050)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 17, 2015, 03:38:17 AM
It will be interesting to see what happens to U.S. production once the price drops to $26.00 which, now that we are reaching storage capacity, is likely to occur in the next 6 months.

I find it a little disturbing that the speaker is given such gravity to his work and yet he refused to look at the political forces driving the market overcapacity.  Without discussing Saudi Arabia no longer willing to be a swing producer, without discussing the ISIS, Iraq, Kurd issue, the ukranian oil issue with Iran and the loss of production in Libya, one can hardly discuss the reason and the long-term projection for supply metrics.

finally, there is little doubt that the wells that have been fracked, and capped are sitting there waiting to be removed.  The money was being made in the drilling, there are tons of wells that have not yet been pumped.  To say that the fracking supply will go away in 6 months or even 2 years is worse than foolish, it is absolutely deceitful. (self or otherwise).

my $.02
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 17, 2015, 04:57:54 AM
There have been plenty people living your lifestyle and preaching about the value for a long time.  It hasn't moved the needle enough to make a difference.

Because the discussion was philosophical: "This is not the right way to live/forward for society, and thus this, this and this will happen some time in the future". This future is now, we are seriously bumping into the limits. See the global financial crisis, frantically veiled by all kinds of bookkeeping and psychological tricks. Or visit the Arctic Sea Ice Blog.

The discussion is shifting from the theoretical to the practical level. It's no longer abstract, and this changes the equation. So to now stop talking about the changes that really need to take place, and just say: 'Don't worry, we got you covered, we're going to greenify your SUV, airplanes, Coca Cola, Christmas gifts and Disney World trips', is about the stupidest thing you can do.

The coming success of renewables needs to be used as an example of change that can be achieved, instead of reinforcing the BAU narrative.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on March 17, 2015, 08:21:45 PM
Bob said that I wrote: "There have been plenty people living your lifestyle and preaching about the value for a long time"

I did not (and would not) say any such thing. Please avoid attributing to others words that they did not say. Thank you.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on March 17, 2015, 10:55:47 PM
Let them eat carbon! The corporate plan to cook Africa in its own fossil fuels
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2796838/let_them_eat_carbon_the_corporate_plan_to_cook_africa_in_its_own_fossil_fuels.html (http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2796838/let_them_eat_carbon_the_corporate_plan_to_cook_africa_in_its_own_fossil_fuels.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 18, 2015, 07:12:08 AM
Bob said that I wrote: "There have been plenty people living your lifestyle and preaching about the value for a long time"

I did not (and would not) say any such thing. Please avoid attributing to others words that they did not say. Thank you.

Actually the quoted words are mine, not yours.  They are part of a comment I wrote.  I apparently quoted something you had said.

The rest of my comment has disappeared and the words below starting with "Because...." are someone else's words and sentiments with which I do not agree.

Someone apparently edited my comment and took a bit of creative license putting words into my mouth, er, keyboard.  There is an 'Edited by' attribution at the bottom.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 18, 2015, 05:38:12 PM
jai

Yes, good points.  I am sure that Mr Berman knows about all of that and could discuss it.  But perhaps he chose to stay somewhat out of things he does not consider himself a deep expert upon (after all he made fun in his presentation about false experts pontificating on oil and gas issues to general laughter) and there is also only so much time in a presentation of course. 

I would love to be able to get him in an off the record "What do you really think?" overall discussion and see what he says.  One of the problems with well known people is that they have to protect their positions in the dialogue and their image.

I won't say who it is, but I do have some limited access to the personal opinions on what is going to happen with climate change and carrying capacity of one of the most famous climate scientists.  His personal opinion is that we are irrevocably f**ked and that we will suffer catastrophic collapse.

That is one of the reasons I argue so strongly against BAU and for being proactive in our response rather than passive.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: silkman on March 18, 2015, 05:52:22 PM
Meanwhile in George Osbourne's budget statement in the House of Commons today he announced a £1.3bn stimulus package to resuscitate the North Sea.

The announcement was coupled with a cancellation of the fuel price escalator to ensure that  lower oil prices are passed on to consumers.

And this from a coalition that set out to be the greenest UK government ever just five years ago. It just serves to illustrate the point made by many on this forum that short term political expediency will always win the day.

At least we can console ourselves that he took a penny off a pint and reduced whisky duty so we can drink ourselves into oblivion with abandon!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-31940616 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-31940616)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 18, 2015, 06:05:25 PM
jai

Yes, good points.  I am sure that Mr Berman knows about all of that and could discuss it.  But perhaps he chose to stay somewhat out of things he does not consider himself a deep expert upon (after all he made fun in his presentation about false experts pontificating on oil and gas issues to general laughter) and there is also only so much time in a presentation of course. 


1.  In afterthought, I didn't see who he was talking too.  As a professional speaker, I am sure that he was tailoring his discussion to the audience he was serving.  Perhaps the international aspect was not (as) relevant? 

2.  I would give my just about anything to have a 3-hour sitdown talk with your climate scientist.  While I have been working on specific structural solutions to climate change I have also been looking at the current science and recognize that the only solution we have left is a total societal mobilization, and very soon we will not even have that.

perhaps you could pass this along to your friend and if he cares to discuss these issues you can invite him here or send me a pm?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 18, 2015, 07:01:06 PM
Ahh... the presentation was at a conference of oil and gas industry geologists.  Berman is like a superstar among them lol.  Pretty nerdy group.  Which includes a lot of climate deniers btw though I to not think Berman falls into that group.  The oil and gas industry is full of them as one would expect.  It is the old "you can't get someone to understand something if their salary depends on them not understanding it.", or their way of life as is applicable for the BAU proponents.

Sadly I cannot accommodate item 2.  I anxiously await him or one of his contemporaries reaching the breaking point and going full public.  But there are so many who could do that but don't.  It makes one despair at times.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Neven on March 18, 2015, 09:02:45 PM
Actually the quoted words are mine, not yours.  They are part of a comment I wrote.  I apparently quoted something you had said.

The rest of my comment has disappeared and the words below starting with "Because...." are someone else's words and sentiments with which I do not agree.

Someone apparently edited my comment and took a bit of creative license putting words into my mouth, er, keyboard.  There is an 'Edited by' attribution at the bottom.

D**it! I'm sorry, Bob. I wanted to reply to your comment, but apparently I pushed the Modify button instead of the Quote button. They're next to each other, and because I'm an admin I could actually change your comment.

I'd never change your comment without letting you know. I apologize.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 08:51:07 PM
The U.S. just got new environmental rules for fracking on public lands, and Republicans are freaking out.
Quote
On Friday afternoon, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released its final version of rules governing the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, on America’s public lands. Under the rules, companies that want to frack on lands like national parks and forests would have to comply with stronger standards to protect the environment.

Republicans and the oil industry are not happy about this. So unhappy, in fact, they’ve already taken up drastic measures to stop the rule. According to Politico, 27 Senate Republicans have introduced a bill to block them, and two oil industry groups have filed a lawsuit to nullify them.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/20/3637106/republicans-freaking-on-fracking-rules/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/20/3637106/republicans-freaking-on-fracking-rules/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2015, 07:01:31 PM
Quote
The Obama administration imposed the first major federal mandates on hydraulic fracturing Friday, unveiling a plan forcing companies to disclose the chemicals they pump underground and seal off waste water in storage tanks instead of open pits.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/03/20/new-federal-mandates-target-hydraulic-fracturing/ (http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/03/20/new-federal-mandates-target-hydraulic-fracturing/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2015, 07:06:38 PM
The Senate Had A Hearing On Oil Exports And Didn’t Mention The Environment Once
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/20/3636291/oil-export-environmental-impacts/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/20/3636291/oil-export-environmental-impacts/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2015, 07:15:22 PM
The White House is excoriating Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for advising states to ignore the Environmental Protection Agency’s climate rule for power plants.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/236393-white-house-mcconnell-advice-on-epa-inappropriate (http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/236393-white-house-mcconnell-advice-on-epa-inappropriate)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 23, 2015, 04:10:57 PM
Another excellent article from Arthur Berman about the situation in the tight gas (shale gas) industry.  All is worse than not well.

Most would probably say that natural gas prices have already collapsed, so if they are getting ready to crash according to Berman it is going to get ugly I guess.

Quote
Natural Gas Prices To Crash Unless Rig Count Falls Fast

...Investors should pay attention to this growing problem. Bank of America fears sub-$2 gas prices now that winter heating worries are over. Low natural gas prices affect the economics for gas-rich oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian basin plays as well as for the shale gas plays.

Meanwhile, an orgy of over-production is taking place in the Marcellus Shale. Well head prices are now below $1.50 per thousand cubic feet of gas because of limited take-away capacity and near-saturation of regional demand. Even companies in the Wyoming, Susquehanna, Allegheny and Washington County core areas of the Marcellus play are losing money at these prices.

The rig count for shale gas plays has decreased by only half as much as for the tight oil plays. The reason appears to be that most shale gas companies do not have significant positions in the tight oil plays and must continue to drill to maintain production levels....

This has puzzled me because the shale gas plays are not commercial at less than about $6/mmBtu except in small parts of the Marcellus core areas where $4 prices break even. Natural gas prices have averaged less than $3/mmBtu for the first quarter of 2015 and are currently at their lowest levels in more than 2 years....

The table shows financial data through year-end 2014. What it reveals is not pretty. 2014 negative cash flow reached $15.5 billion, an increase of $7.2 billion over 2013. Much of this increase involved Southwestern Energy’s puzzling acquisition of Chesapeake’s West Virginia Marcellus Shale position that increased that company’s negative cash flow by almost $5 billion over 2013.

On average, shale-gas companies earned only 68 cents for every dollar that they spent in 2014. Total debt increased almost $10 billion to $93.5 billion and average debt exceeded stated equity by 18% excluding companies with negative equity including the now-bankrupt Quicksilver Resources.

Shale gas plays are commercial failures....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-To-Crash-Unless-Rig-Count-Falls-Fast.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-To-Crash-Unless-Rig-Count-Falls-Fast.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on March 23, 2015, 04:30:17 PM
When will they pay for the real price of CO2. A CO2 that will stay (globally) in the atmosphere for 10.000 years (and more)...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 23, 2015, 06:41:29 PM
When will they pay for the real price of CO2. A CO2 that will stay (globally) in the atmosphere for 10.000 years (and more)...

Is this an actual question?  If so, the obvious answer is that they will not.  Or one could answer that we all will and since we all share responsibility for it then the bill will come due and will be paid.

I must say that the way you focus on this all the time makes no sense to me.  Trying to punish people for what we all have done will not get us moving in the right directions.  You should not even say things like this unless you can honestly state that you use zero fossil fuel products in your life and never have. Bet that is just not the case either now or in the past.  We all share responsibility for what we have done, are doing and for trying to fix things.

This topic has a point and purpose.  And that is to educate the readers here about certain aspects of the fossil fuel industry.  A common theme amongst those most focused on climate change is an almost complete ignorance of the fossil fuel industry in how it operates and the impacts it has on the global financial situation and big parts of our lives.  I am tying to provide insights into factors of this industry which will educate and enlighten the readers.  I am not an advocate for it in any way.

If one really understands this industry and how it is key to where we are today and how dependent we are upon it then it helps us understand better how to proceed.  A real understanding of it will do much to temper ones unbridled advocating for the green BAU approaches being able to let us maintain our current industrial civilization.

So tell me what the macro effects are going to be over the next few years of this plunge in oil and gas prices and the real possibility they will go even lower.  It has huge import to everything you advocate.  Will it help speed or slow your renewable roll out?  Will it raise consumption of fossil fuels, which and why?  For how long?  What will that do to consumption patterns over the next 5 years or so?  What will be its impact on the global economy, the economies of specific countries and why does it matter?  What will be its impacts on the politics of key countries.  Etc.

People do not say that "Oil is the economy." for no reason.

Let's have meaningful dialogue. 



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 24, 2015, 05:17:13 PM
It appears that Saudi Arabia has decided the time is right to ramp up the pressure on the US oil producers.

They have ramped UP production by some 350,000 barrels per day.

Quote
...rent futures LCOc1 for May delivery were trading down 20 cents at $55.72 at 0856 GMT, while U.S. crude CLc1 dropped 31 cents to $47.14 a barrel. Its discount to Brent CL-LCO1=R widened to $8.58 a barrel.

The Chinese data followed comments from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that it is pumping around 10 million barrels of crude per day, close to an all-time high and some 350,000 bpd above the figure it gave OPEC for its February output.

OPEC's decision to fight for market share rather than cutting output has contributed to a halving in oil prices since June as the global surplus of oil supplies has grown.

The market is expected to be at its weakest in the second quarter as winter fuel demand wanes while peak summer driving activity is yet to kick in. Energy consultancy FGE forecasts a global surplus of 2 million barrels per day between April and June...

the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration (EIA), showed a crude stock build of 5 million barrels on average last week. [EIA/S]...

This will, of course, put real downward pressure on prices and raise the rate at which available storage is used up.  There is a good chance of a train wreck coming.  Presuming that we are not counting what has happened so far as a train wreck I guess.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/24/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MK07B20150324 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/24/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MK07B20150324)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: viddaloo on March 24, 2015, 11:38:43 PM
Discussing a (hypothetical) cool–down of Norwegian oil & gas extraction in Oslo tonight, the speaker made the comparison for having a 50–50% chance of making the "2–degree target" with Russian Roulette, where your odds of surviving are actually better.

Another important difference between the two risk assessments is that a loser in Russian Roulette only kills one person (himself) with the revolver, while victims of runaway climate change are counted in billions.

Bottom line here is that our BAU–till–you–drop "leaders" are prepared to play Russian Roulette with one species instead of one man at stake. The irony is we call these people rational and conservative.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 26, 2015, 01:16:36 AM
On Tuesday, Maryland legislators passed legislation that would place strong limits on the extraction of natural gas in the state.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/25/3638686/maryland-fracking-yes-no-maybe/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/25/3638686/maryland-fracking-yes-no-maybe/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 26, 2015, 04:54:49 PM
jai

I was reading through some of the above posts and came across this which I sort of missed originally.

Quote
...While I have been working on specific structural solutions to climate change I have also been looking at the current science and recognize that the only solution we have left is a total societal mobilization, and very soon we will not even have that....

I completely agree with this assessment.  That conviction of mine is why I argue so strongly that the BAU approaches are no different than suicide. 

Others also mention in their posts the desire for a total societal mobilization.  A great amount of the writing I do is to focus on our weaknesses and also some of our strengths in trying to do this.  There are limitations to what are possible paths towards such mobilizations.  Some things are possible and some are not.  But it is not impossible and the alternatives are dire.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on March 27, 2015, 10:00:52 AM
UK's biggest plastic milk bottle recycler on brink of collapse
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/uks-biggest-plastic-milk-bottle-recycler-on-brink-of-collapse (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/26/uks-biggest-plastic-milk-bottle-recycler-on-brink-of-collapse)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on March 27, 2015, 01:42:36 PM
jai

I was reading through some of the above posts and came across this which I sort of missed originally.

Quote
...While I have been working on specific structural solutions to climate change I have also been looking at the current science and recognize that the only solution we have left is a total societal mobilization, and very soon we will not even have that....

I completely agree with this assessment.  That conviction of mine is why I argue so strongly that the BAU approaches are no different than suicide. 

Others also mention in their posts the desire for a total societal mobilization.  A great amount of the writing I do is to focus on our weaknesses and also some of our strengths in trying to do this.  There are limitations to what are possible paths towards such mobilizations.  Some things are possible and some are not.  But it is not impossible and the alternatives are dire.
Full agreement to that. I see some chance, that we might get an other strong ally soon: Production industry here is quite anoyed by low emissions costs (rendering previous investments in energy saving useless), subsidies for energy intensive companies (unfair competition from large consumers) and all the rescuing of banks (after US housing bubble, European public spending bubble and very soon the coal/oil bubble collapse...) with taxpayers (so also industries) money. In Germany such production industries employ most people - so they could kick the politicians in the right direction together with 50% of the people.

Also companies are head by normal people knowing, that in the long run all business must be sustainable. And there are a lot of good examples just like the private examples already today.
But again also in the economy we have this nasty 1% of super powerfull companies (>100,000 employes) moving like oil-tankers and leading the pack and the politics in the wrong direction. That must be changed, too.

So maybe we just have to force the top 1% (persons, companies) each year and we'll solve the problem? I know that this is unrealistic, just because people believe that it is unrealistic and because they only want to do serious action if all the neighbors do the same. That has a long tradition here...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Neven on March 27, 2015, 03:19:45 PM
So maybe we just have to force the top 1% (persons, companies) each year and we'll solve the problem? I know that this is unrealistic, just because people believe that it is unrealistic and because they only want to do serious action if all the neighbors do the same. That has a long tradition here...

It's all about not respecting limits, so make the first limits about how much the 1% is allowed to own.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2015, 10:28:41 PM
The linked article says that crude oil prices dropped 5% today on trade's concerns that a nuclear deal could be reached with Iran soon.  If so crude oil prices will likely continue to drop for some time as Iran attempts to regain market share:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/markets-oil-idINL3N0WT1C520150327 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/markets-oil-idINL3N0WT1C520150327)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 28, 2015, 08:05:57 PM
interesting, so perhaps the Saudi move in yemen and in oil price dumping is a pre-emptive strike against the release of Iran sanctions?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2015, 10:50:39 PM
The US government predicts that the shale boom won't last much beyond the next decade.  Thus as the linked article indicates, the National Petroleum Council (as advisory to the US Department of Energy) recommended on Friday that the US begin to develop its Arctic oil & gas reserves immediately, & I imagine that the Obama administration will soon issue more permits for exploratory drilling offshore of Alaska:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d4aa1d761b244c4a97a6370e8a1106f7/oil-council-shale-wont-last-arctic-drilling-needed-now (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d4aa1d761b244c4a97a6370e8a1106f7/oil-council-shale-wont-last-arctic-drilling-needed-now)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Clare on March 29, 2015, 01:28:02 AM
Naomi Klein video :

"Climate change should be a catalyst for a major change, but we're not treating it as a real emergency. Naomi Klein believes that capitalism is at war with the climate, but she says sometimes it gives us a gift – the sudden drop in oil prices. So let's not blow what could be our best chance to prevent catastrophic global warming"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/mar/25/naomi-klein-climate-change-lets-kick-oil-price-video (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/mar/25/naomi-klein-climate-change-lets-kick-oil-price-video)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 29, 2015, 08:08:24 PM
Insider News Reveals Second Oil Crash Coming

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/26/second-oil-crash-coming/ (http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/26/second-oil-crash-coming/)

I am 100% confident that, sans extramarket forces aligning in a kind of "plunge protection team" cornering of trades, we will see oil drop down to the low $30s or even the high $20s.


Quote
My sources in Hong Kong, who are connected to major players on the mainland, are indicating that the slowdown in China may be even greater than the official numbers.

China’s “official” growth rate fell to 7.4% in 2014, the lowest in 25 years. But other sources are saying it will be lower.

The International Monetary Fund is projecting growth to come in at 6.8% in 2014. Analysts from Oxford Economics, a well-respected consulting firm that covers global markets with the likes of Accenture (ACN), are calling for growth to come in at 6%.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on March 29, 2015, 08:26:11 PM
Insider News Reveals Second Oil Crash Coming

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/26/second-oil-crash-coming/ (http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2015/03/26/second-oil-crash-coming/)

I am 100% confident that, sans extramarket forces aligning in a kind of "plunge protection team" cornering of trades, we will see oil drop down to the low $30s or even the high $20s.

so what does 100% confident mean in terms of amount invested in put options?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 29, 2015, 09:11:37 PM
There is certainly a high probability we have not seen the bottom yet in oil/gas prices.  I too think they will go much lower before the year is out.

Demand is quickly rising in some areas.  Gasoline in the US for instance which is being pushed by increased driving as well as the big rise in purchases of high consumption vehicle like large pickups and suv's.  The later dial in higher consumption for years of course.  Lower gas prices can result in lower coal consumption which is good, but they also become much more competitive with the large scale renewables so that will cause some to have concerns.  But the elephant in the room on this issue is the state of global finances and what happens with China, the EU, US and the developing countries.  We look to be set up for a global economic slowdown which should depress overall demand.  A few well placed wars in or related to oil producing states can send the equation either way depending - Libya going the way of ISIS or Saudi ending up in a long term conflict in Yemen as examples of possible disruptions.

I am pretty much a fan of Naomi Klein but I question the good to climate change action which could come from low oil/gas prices.  i don't see that they present an opportunity but rather put the breaks on rapid change.

They will likely raise consumption of oil/gas as they result in them being more competitive with alternatives and I would expect a big slow down in utility scale renewable installations should the low prices persist for very long.  They do not really transfer to more wealth being available to spend on climate change mitigation strategies like renewables  as many seem to hope. They contribute to economic problems in many countries and this feeds into the other factors pushing us towards another economic meltdown.  Progress has been being made on coal but the surplus of coal is resulting in the price dropping (this runs some mining operations out of business - like in WVA) and thus for countries in really bad economic shape it might make a lot of sense for them to concentrate on coal also - much to work out still on that issue.

If the fossil industry is in big trouble there will also be a strong emphasis on helping it in those countries where it is a major player in the economy and this will bleed resources away from other possible uses.  Everyone is filling their strategic petroleum reserves right now for instance which amounts to a stimulus for the oil industry.

Lots of complications.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on March 30, 2015, 06:02:29 PM
No words are necessary.

http://www.alternet.org/fracking/fracking-towns-desperate-laid-workers-they-dont-tell-you-its-all-lie (http://www.alternet.org/fracking/fracking-towns-desperate-laid-workers-they-dont-tell-you-its-all-lie)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2015, 08:59:57 PM
Two Years After Exxon's Mayflower Spill, Will Tougher Pipeline Rules Go Beyond Talk?
If a new rule takes effect, about 95 percent of all pipelines would be subject to stricter safety testing because of their age, location and other factors.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/30032015/two-years-after-exxons-mayflower-spill-will-tougher-pipeline-rules-go-beyond-talk (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/30032015/two-years-after-exxons-mayflower-spill-will-tougher-pipeline-rules-go-beyond-talk)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: werther on March 31, 2015, 10:13:58 AM
I’m ‘enjoying’ myself in reading “The Energy of Nations – Risk blindness and the Road to Renaissance” by Jeremy Leggett. In doing so, I struck upon this documentary, which is a little outdated but, at least to me, illustrating:

http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm (http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm)

For those who missed this, like me.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 31, 2015, 06:10:33 PM
Stanford Economist, "Global Oil Price Drop May Last Decades."

http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/march/oil-prices-wolak-033015.html (http://news.stanford.edu/news/2015/march/oil-prices-wolak-033015.html)

Quote
The primary reasons for continuing low prices include the slowing demand for oil in the industrialized world and ever-advancing technological change in the extraction and use of oil, wrote Wolak in a new policy brief for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on March 31, 2015, 06:47:35 PM
Deepwater oil spill: BP steps up PR effort to insist all is well in the Gulf
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/31/bp-pr-effort-gulf-coast-deepwater (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/31/bp-pr-effort-gulf-coast-deepwater)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on March 31, 2015, 11:00:15 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-could-fall-below-30-a-barrel-but-heres-why-thats-a-good-thing-2015-03-30?siteid=yhoof2 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-could-fall-below-30-a-barrel-but-heres-why-thats-a-good-thing-2015-03-30?siteid=yhoof2)

Oil could fall below $30 a barrel, but here’s why that’s a good thing

Quote
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—Oil futures could tumble as far as the mid-$20s before bottoming. But if history is a guide, that could be a positive scenario for stocks as corporate earnings and consumers reap the benefit of lower energy prices, said Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners.

But first, Minerd sees little reason to expect a significant near-term rebound for oil prices.

I don't recommend playing this or any other stock market scheme.  I believe that the commodity markets are cornered by speculators.  This is why the Saudi shift in production targets is so telling on how the price had been completely manipulated through August of last year.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2015, 02:41:30 AM
Residents in Pennsylvania agree to sampling of their water and air before fracking starts in their neighborhood.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/31032015/fracking-begins-air-and-water-tests-still-rare-precaution (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/31032015/fracking-begins-air-and-water-tests-still-rare-precaution)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on April 01, 2015, 09:55:47 AM
What the Advertisements Aren't Telling you About Natural Gas
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rosaly-byrd/what-the-advertisements-a_b_6970846.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rosaly-byrd/what-the-advertisements-a_b_6970846.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on April 01, 2015, 09:46:46 PM
Guardian's fossil fuel divestment pledge allows gas, fracking
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2815495/guardians_fossil_fuel_divestment_pledge_allows_gas_fracking.html (http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2815495/guardians_fossil_fuel_divestment_pledge_allows_gas_fracking.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Revillo on April 01, 2015, 11:42:57 PM
Fire and fatalities at Gulf oil rig. 

http://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-and-fire-on-the-oil-platform-in-gulf-of-mexico--45-hurt-and-300-evacuated-2015-4 (http://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-and-fire-on-the-oil-platform-in-gulf-of-mexico--45-hurt-and-300-evacuated-2015-4)

Quote
Mexican state-run oil company Pemex said at least four people died after a fire broke out on a production platform in the Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday, sparking the evacuation of around 300 workers.

Local emergency services said as many as 45 people were injured in the blaze, which erupted overnight on the Abkatun Permanente platform in the oil-rich Bay of Campeche.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2015, 08:59:06 PM
The linked article on the Iran nuclear deal implies that the price of oil will drop further as Iranian oil enters the international market place.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iran-nuclear-deal-announcement-expected/story?id=29952510 (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iran-nuclear-deal-announcement-expected/story?id=29952510)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2015, 01:45:05 AM
The linked article discusses an oil index that shows that different crude oil sources and different crude oil products have different carbon footprints (see attached images)

http://ecowatch.com/2015/03/16/climate-oil-index-carnegie-endowment/ (http://ecowatch.com/2015/03/16/climate-oil-index-carnegie-endowment/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2015, 10:01:45 PM
The linked WSJ article states that crude oil prices surged today based on growing demand for crude (which of course will increase carbon emissions proportionately).  However, assuming that the Iran nuclear agreement is completed in June, we can expect Iranian oil supplies to increase shortly thereafter:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-rebounds-as-markets-weigh-u-s-jobs-data-iran-deal-1428330439 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-rebounds-as-markets-weigh-u-s-jobs-data-iran-deal-1428330439)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on April 07, 2015, 11:03:44 AM
Hydraulic Fracturing Offshore Wells on the California Coast
http://www.fractracker.org/2013/10/hf-offshore-ca/ (http://www.fractracker.org/2013/10/hf-offshore-ca/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2015, 08:56:40 PM
The cars Google Earth uses to capture street views will start sniffing out methane and natural gas.
Quote
Obama is announcing that Google will donate 10 million hours of advanced computing time to new tools, including risk maps and early warnings for things like wildfires and oil flares using the Google Earth Engine platform. Google's "Street View" camera cars will start measuring methane emissions and natural gas leaks.
http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/04/07/obama-presents-climate-change-as-hazard-to-your-health (http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/04/07/obama-presents-climate-change-as-hazard-to-your-health)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 15, 2015, 01:02:12 AM
The biggest foreign lease holder in Canada’s oil sands isn’t Exxon Mobil or Chevron. It’s the Koch brothers.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/20/the-biggest-land-owner-in-canadas-oil-sands-isnt-exxon-mobil-or-conoco-phillips-its-the-koch-brothers/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/20/the-biggest-land-owner-in-canadas-oil-sands-isnt-exxon-mobil-or-conoco-phillips-its-the-koch-brothers/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on April 16, 2015, 07:34:55 PM
Least anyone get confused and think that the little daily weekly fluctuations in the oil markets - up one day and down the next and up again (with the ups always sold as the bottom is in to sucker in investors) - are indicative of real meaning think again.

Saudi is going to drive a large number of the high cost producers into bankruptcy.  That is the plan.  Here is some more evidence of it.  BTW Iraq is going to help them.

Quote
OPEC Boosting Production To Keep Pressure On U.S. Shale

Saudi Arabia has decided to turn up the heat on U.S. shale producers.

The de factor OPEC leader ramped up oil production in March despite the fact that it is pumping into one of the worst bear markets in years. A new report from the International Energy Agency found that OPEC increased oil production by an estimated 890,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in the month of March.

Iraq managed to boost output by 350,000 bbl/d and Libya also brought about 190,000 bbl/d back online.

But Saudi Arabia made up the difference, increasing output by an additional 390,000 bbl/d to 10.1 million bbl/d, a near record-high. The move to increase oil production in the face of a well-supplied market is likely a strategy to maintain market share and force higher cost producers – such as U.S. shale – out of the market.

And there is growing evidence that Saudi Arabia’s strategy is bearing fruit. U.S. rig counts have fallen below 1,000 for the first time since 2009. Rig count declines in the U.S. appeared to be slowing after several weeks of only a dozen or so rigs being taken off the market, but last week an additional 40 oil and gas rigs were removed, indicating that additional cut backs are in the works....

Saudi Arabia is keeping the pedal to the metal. It is actually increasing rig counts in order to keep production going full tilt. That means that oil prices could remain subdued for quite a bit longer. The painful adjustment will have to come on the shoulders of U.S. drillers.....

Capitalism is such a wonderful thing.  The dark side of all this is that the persistent low prices will result in a large demand increase - another thing we don't need.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/OPEC-Boosting-Production-To-Keep-Pressure-On-U.S.-Shale.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/OPEC-Boosting-Production-To-Keep-Pressure-On-U.S.-Shale.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2015, 08:46:45 PM
Quote
Can fossil fuel companies be transformed into allies in the fight against climate change?

As unlikely as it might seem, a coalition of environmental groups and investors is trying to persuade coal, oil and gas companies to turn away from carbon-polluting sources of energy and invest in low-carbon alternatives.
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/apr/17/ceres-fossil-fuels-sec-carbon-chevron-exxonmobil-cnr (http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/apr/17/ceres-fossil-fuels-sec-carbon-chevron-exxonmobil-cnr)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2015, 09:35:00 PM
Quote
BP has agreed to reveal which of its oil reserves could be “unburnable” if governments place effective action on climate change, after a shareholder campaign.

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/16/bp-adopts-climate-risk-proposal-after-shareholder-vote/ (http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/16/bp-adopts-climate-risk-proposal-after-shareholder-vote/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2015, 10:04:45 PM
Mexico: 500,000 left without drinking water after oil spill
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mexico-500000-left-without-drinking-water-after-oil-spill-1496717 (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mexico-500000-left-without-drinking-water-after-oil-spill-1496717)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 24, 2015, 02:14:43 PM
Another AMA on reddit.com/r/science that some may find interesting.

Science AMA Series: I’m Marcia McNutt, editor-in-chief of Science, former director of USGS, and head of the Deepwater Horizon Flow Rate Technical Group. I was on the scene at the Deepwater Horizon spill. AMA!

Hi Reddit!
Five years have passed since the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. I’m Marcia McNutt, editor-in-chief of the Science family of journals, former director of USGS, and head of the Deepwater Horizon Flow Rate Technical Group. I’m here to discuss the factors that led to the disaster, what it was like to be a part of the effort to control the well, and the measures we’ve put in place to make sure that this doesn’t happen again – as well as answer your questions about the science behind quantifying the oil spill.
Please note: I’m not an expert on the environmental damage caused by the spill.
Related links:
Me on Twitter: @Marcia4Science (https://twitter.com/Marcia4Science)[1]
A recently published article about the legacy of Deepwater Horizon: “Five years after Deepwater Horizon disaster, scars linger” (http://news.sciencemag.org/environment/2015/04/five-years-after-deepwater-horizon-disaster-scars-linger)[2]
My recent Science editorial about Deepwater Horizon: “A community for disaster science” (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/348/6230/11.full)[3] (And a nifty podcast (http://traffic.libsyn.com/sciencemag/SciencePodcast_150403.mp3) [4] .)

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/33pafe/science_ama_series_im_marcia_mcnutt_editorinchief/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/33pafe/science_ama_series_im_marcia_mcnutt_editorinchief/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2015, 08:28:28 PM
Oklahoma Lawmakers Vote To Outlaw Fracking Bans As Earthquakes In The State Spike
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/23/3650316/oklahoma-local-drilling-bans/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/23/3650316/oklahoma-local-drilling-bans/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Neven on April 24, 2015, 10:21:12 PM
Oklahoma Lawmakers Vote To Outlaw Fracking Bans As Earthquakes In The State Spike
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/23/3650316/oklahoma-local-drilling-bans/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/23/3650316/oklahoma-local-drilling-bans/)

Tamino had a post (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/04/24/oklahoma-not-ok/) on this today.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 02, 2015, 01:44:31 PM
Quote
In an effort to stop a string of fiery train crashes, the federal government today passed new rules overhauling the way North America moves crude oil by rail.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-federal-rules-aim-stop-fiery-oil-train-crashes-n352221 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-federal-rules-aim-stop-fiery-oil-train-crashes-n352221)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 15, 2015, 10:49:23 AM
Seattle Mobilizes to Shut Down Shell Operations to Protest Arctic Oil Drilling
http://www.democracynow.org/2015/5/14/seattle_mobilizes_to_shut_down_shell (http://www.democracynow.org/2015/5/14/seattle_mobilizes_to_shut_down_shell)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 15, 2015, 11:10:38 AM
Exclusive: Anti-Fracking Filmmaker Josh Fox Arrested In Finger Lakes Protest
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/13/exclusive-anti-fracking-filmmaker-josh-fox-arrested-in-finger-lakes-protest.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/05/13/exclusive-anti-fracking-filmmaker-josh-fox-arrested-in-finger-lakes-protest.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 15, 2015, 10:21:41 PM
Quote
A native band in northern British Columbia has voted to reject a $1.15 billion (Canadian), 40-year payout from a consortium of Asian and North American energy companies that want to cross its land with a pipeline and build a liquefied natural gas terminal.
...
Garry Reece, mayor of the band’s village, said in a statement:  “Hopefully the public will recognize that unanimous consensus in communities (and where unanimity is the exception) against a project where those communities are offered in excess of a billion dollars, sends an unequivocal message this is not a money issue:  This is environmental and cultural.”
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/05/13/native-band-in-canada-rejects-1-15-billion-inducement-from-gas-pipeline-buildernatural/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/05/13/native-band-in-canada-rejects-1-15-billion-inducement-from-gas-pipeline-buildernatural/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on May 16, 2015, 10:22:58 AM
Saudi claims oil price strategy Success
http://on.ft.com/1FkSk2T (http://on.ft.com/1FkSk2T)

Quote
“There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months has deterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshore and heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving a rare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy.
...
However, the Saudi official said he expected the kingdom to maintain its dominance of global energy, despite the growth of alternatives to fossil fuels and competition from rival oil producers within Opec and beyond. “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil,” he said. “We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.”
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 17, 2015, 09:14:37 PM
Why Did NY Ban Fracking? The Official Report Is Now Public
The massive study finds that health, safety and environmental uncertainties regarding fracking's dangers have 'grown worse over time.'
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15052015/why-did-ny-ban-fracking-official-report-now-public (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15052015/why-did-ny-ban-fracking-official-report-now-public)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 18, 2015, 08:09:34 PM
The Guardian:
"The real story behind Shell's climate change rhetoric

In the first of an investigative series into the fossil fuel giants from which we are calling on Gates and Wellcome Trust to divest, we reveal Shell’s pursuit of ever riskier reserves is at odds with its own forecasts for dangerous global warming."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/17/shell-climate-change-rhetoric-the-real-story (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/17/shell-climate-change-rhetoric-the-real-story)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on May 20, 2015, 01:36:59 PM
Pipeline Burst Along Santa Barbara Coast Spills Into 4-Mile Long Oil Slick
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/19/santa-barbara-oil-spill_n_7338418.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/19/santa-barbara-oil-spill_n_7338418.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2015, 03:35:54 PM
California oil spill probed as cleanup continues
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102698037 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102698037)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2015, 12:04:48 AM
Seattle, Washington: "Kayaktivists" Vs. A Massive Oil Rig: Inside Seattle’s Fight Against Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2015, 12:08:40 AM
Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency in California on Wednesday, after oil spill estimates soared from 21,000 gallons to more than 105,000 gallons.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/22/3661684/the-santa-barbara-oil-spill-is-awful/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/22/3661684/the-santa-barbara-oil-spill-is-awful/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Polynya88 on May 23, 2015, 12:55:50 AM
Seattle, Washington: "Kayaktivists" Vs. A Massive Oil Rig: Inside Seattle’s Fight Against Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/21/3660630/kayaktivists-seattle-shell-continued-action/)

The real irony in this event is that all the "activists" are in plastic/hydrocarbon-based Kayaks! Where are the wood or seal-skin Kayaks if they want to be purists and ride their anti-oil high horse...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on May 23, 2015, 05:08:18 AM
you are correct to note that there is an environmental impact to all oil-derivative products.  We desperately need to be both effective in our communication and actions that help prevent the extraction and processing/combustion of fossil fuels as well as reduce our own personal impacts on the environment.

however, the avoided potential catastrophe in the arctic (think: deep horizon just before arctic re-freeze) compared to the environmental impact of manufacturing a plastic kayak is, well, incomparable.

unless you were joking, then:  deserved. . .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1agaZinJHg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1agaZinJHg)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2015, 04:48:45 PM
Georgia DOT rejects the Kinder Morgan request for the Palmetto pipeline.
http://savannahnow.com/news/2015-05-19/dot-commissioner-rejects-palmetto-pipeline (http://savannahnow.com/news/2015-05-19/dot-commissioner-rejects-palmetto-pipeline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Polynya88 on May 23, 2015, 06:12:31 PM
you are correct to note that there is an environmental impact to all oil-derivative products.  We desperately need to be both effective in our communication and actions that help prevent the extraction and processing/combustion of fossil fuels as well as reduce our own personal impacts on the environment.

however, the avoided potential catastrophe in the arctic (think: deep horizon just before arctic re-freeze) compared to the environmental impact of manufacturing a plastic kayak is, well, incomparable.

unless you were joking, then:  deserved. . .


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1agaZinJHg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1agaZinJHg)

I am probably in the wrong forum here, as I support Arctic drilling, and  your response above supports it to my way of thinking as well.  The deepwater Horizon event was horrendous and severely affected 10s of thousands of people. However, in the absolute worst case (extremely unlikely) that something did happen when Shell drills in the Chukchi this summer, the results could affect, well a hundred or so subsistence hunters who would prefer to be given money to buy their food at the local co-op store anyhow (I have worked in the Beaufort/Alaskan Coast for 20 years doing ice research).  Oil extraction is a nasty business, but there aren't currently many viable energy alternatives, so if we have to do it (search for oil) shouldn't we be doing it in the Arctic (preferably at the north pole!) where it affects humanity the least? 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: jai mitchell on May 23, 2015, 06:44:40 PM
I am probably in the wrong forum here

yep, the first truthful thing you have said here so far.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Bruce Steele on May 23, 2015, 09:19:41 PM
I have fished as far north as the Norton Sound and biodiversity is much reduced the further north you get. IMO a large oil spill into any ocean that has limited biodiversity increases risk to ecosystem niche
membership that may be served by a single species. Again in my opinion , counting humans is a poor measure of environmental risk and those few places on this planet where we are few probably deserve
extra protection , not less. Protection from us ,not for us.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on May 23, 2015, 09:25:39 PM
Quote
Oil extraction is a nasty business, but there aren't currently many viable energy alternatives, so if we have to do it (search for oil) shouldn't we be doing it in the Arctic (preferably at the north pole!) where it affects humanity the least?

No we don't have to do it.  That is nonsense.  We know the location of far more oil, gas and coal right now then we ever dare burn.  So there is no need for any oil exploration any where on earth.  And doing it in the sensitive waters of the arctic is just stupid stuff.  Oil exploration is just being pursued to pad some rich guys pocket.  Take all that money and spend it on something we actually need and some progress might actually happen.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2015, 12:04:03 AM
Nigeria -- Africa's largest oil producer -- crippled by fuel shortages
http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/africa/nigeria-fuel-shortages/ (http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/21/africa/nigeria-fuel-shortages/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2015, 11:57:36 PM
Nigerian cellphone provider needs fuel to prevent shut-down
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/nigerian-cell-phone-provider-needs-fuel-to-prevent-shut-down/2015/05/24/5e595d64-021b-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/nigerian-cell-phone-provider-needs-fuel-to-prevent-shut-down/2015/05/24/5e595d64-021b-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2015, 07:48:42 PM
Nick Stern: Shell is asking us to bet against the world on climate change.

Oil giant is wrong on climate policy and on the progress that will be made in renewables over next 20-30 years, says influential economist Nick Stern.

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/may/27/stern-shell-is-asking-us-to-bet-against-the-world-on-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/may/27/stern-shell-is-asking-us-to-bet-against-the-world-on-climate-change)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2015, 02:30:43 AM
Still wondering if you should divest from fossil fuel companies?
Quote
So far this year, Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) shareholders have seen their share prices decline 8.13% and 7.96%, respectively, making them the fifth and fourth worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A few possible catalysts for the decline are in oil and natural gas prices.
http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/RyNm/~3/8LGcsCbiq94/ (http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/typepad/RyNm/~3/8LGcsCbiq94/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2015, 01:17:15 AM
Obama Explains Why He Approved Arctic Drilling In The Face Of Climate Concerns
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/28/3663715/obama-twitter-chat-arctic-drilling/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/05/28/3663715/obama-twitter-chat-arctic-drilling/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2015, 04:31:55 PM
If Iran reaches a nuclear agreement and sanctions are lifted, the country will add 1 million barrels of oil a day to the already flooded oil market, threatening prices further.

What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/iran-s-million-barrel-conundrum-brings-battle-back-inside-opec (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-02/iran-s-million-barrel-conundrum-brings-battle-back-inside-opec)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2015, 10:17:31 PM
Anti-tar sands march along banks of the Mississippi expected to draw thousands
Quote
ST. PAUL, Minnesota -- A busy week in the future of oil in America will culminate in the largest anti-tar sands event ever to take place in the Midwest on Saturday along the banks of the Mississippi River, organizers say.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/business/3758079-anti-tar-sands-march-along-banks-mississippi-expected-draw-thousands (http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/business/3758079-anti-tar-sands-march-along-banks-mississippi-expected-draw-thousands)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2015, 03:38:47 AM
Why You Should Be Skeptical Of Big Oil Companies Asking For A Price On Carbon
Quote
BP, Statoil, and Total might be actively calling for a carbon tax, but the three biggest U.S. oil companies — ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips — aren’t. (ExxonMobil says they would prefer a carbon tax to a cap-and-trade system, but they don’t outright support it). And those U.S. companies are spending much more to influence Congress than the letter-writing companies on campaign donations and lobbying.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/03/3665618/oil-companies-want-carbon-price/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/03/3665618/oil-companies-want-carbon-price/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2015, 03:26:44 PM
California Oil Spill: Pipe Had Previous Issues, Feds Say
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-oil-spill-pipe-had-previous-issues-feds-say-n369576 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-oil-spill-pipe-had-previous-issues-feds-say-n369576)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 06, 2015, 02:45:22 PM
Fracking Returns, but Denton Vows to Keep Fighting
Quote
Two weeks after Denton's fracking ban was rendered illegal by a sweeping new state law restricting local control of oil-and-gas activities, residents of the north Texas town are frustrated, upset and conflicted about how best to respond.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/05062015/fracking-returns-denton-vows-keep-fighting-texas-local-control-oil-gas-drilling-arrests (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/05062015/fracking-returns-denton-vows-keep-fighting-texas-local-control-oil-gas-drilling-arrests)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2015, 01:21:46 AM
America’s Shale Oil Boom Grinds to a Halt as OPEC Keeps Pumping
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/america-s-shale-oil-boom-grinding-to-halt-as-u-s-forecasts-drop (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/america-s-shale-oil-boom-grinding-to-halt-as-u-s-forecasts-drop)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2015, 04:06:42 PM
Exxon's Gamble: 25 Years of Rejecting Shareholder Concerns on Climate Change
Quote
For a quarter-century, stockholders have asked Exxon to confront the threat of climate change in all sorts of ways: by investing in renewable energy, cutting harmful emissions, providing carbon risk assessments and adding a board member with climate expertise. Year after year, the oil giant has said no, rejecting shareholders’ requests and downplaying their concerns long after scientists concluded that unfettered burning of fossil fuels is leading to catastrophic climate change. At Chevron and ConocoPhillips, executives have also routinely opposed climate-related shareholder resolutions.
http://books.insideclimatenews.org/exxonsclimategamble (http://books.insideclimatenews.org/exxonsclimategamble)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 13, 2015, 10:08:15 PM
More Industry Linked Earthquakes Recorded in Alberta
http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/06/11/More-Fracking-Earthquakes/ (http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/06/11/More-Fracking-Earthquakes/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2015, 03:37:46 AM
Oil patch cities were the top U.S. growth areas, until recently.  Now, retirement communities head the list, as oil and gas hubs falter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/these-18-cities-will-see-the-most-economic-growth-next-year (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/these-18-cities-will-see-the-most-economic-growth-next-year)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2015, 07:27:53 PM
Oklahoma earthquakes:

Quote
@SPIAindex: Eight earthquakes since 10:00pm last night, all within 8 to 9 miles of Sperry Ranch near Guthrie, OK. Magnitudes have ranged from 2.8 to 3.6
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 21, 2015, 09:33:31 PM
Near a Fracking Center, Drinking Water Has More Chemicals and Carcinogens
One of the largest analyses of water quality of aquifers near Texas fracking sites examined samples from 550 wells across the Barnett Shale near Dallas.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19062015/near-fracking-center-drinking-water-has-more-chemicals-and-carcinogens-barnett-shale-texas-epa-oil-gas (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/19062015/near-fracking-center-drinking-water-has-more-chemicals-and-carcinogens-barnett-shale-texas-epa-oil-gas)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on June 28, 2015, 09:30:51 PM
EPA authorizes Shell rig to discharge ‘waste streams’ into Alaska’s Chukchi Sea
http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/06/15/epa-authorizes-shell-rig-to-discharge-waste-streams-into-chukchi-sea/ (http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2015/06/15/epa-authorizes-shell-rig-to-discharge-waste-streams-into-chukchi-sea/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2015, 09:32:39 PM
Obama Administration Deals Blow To Shell’s Arctic Drilling Plans
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3675924/shell-arctic-drilling-marine-life/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3675924/shell-arctic-drilling-marine-life/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 02, 2015, 03:21:29 AM
In Oklahoma, Fracking Companies Can Now Be Sued Over Earthquakes
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3676046/oklahoma-supreme-court-fracking-earthquakes/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/01/3676046/oklahoma-supreme-court-fracking-earthquakes/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2015, 12:56:20 AM
Bloomberg, on why you should sell your oil stocks
(Interesting: electric vehicles are seen as enough of a threat to warrant a couple of mentions.)
 
Quote
It could get grimmer still. The Saudis just suggested  -- before retracting the statement -- that the era of fossil fuels might end in the middle of this century. Suppose they actually believe it -- and even hedge against it? Suppose the Kingdom tries to sell off its oil before the price collapses.  What would that do to the market for Shell’s costly Arctic drilling? For the complex, dirty extraction of Canadian tar sands? Ultra-deep Brazilian pre-salt wells in the South Atlantic? Even some of the more expensive U.S. shale wells?
"Divestment from oil may be a moral cause for some investors. Others -- those seeking profit over the long term especially -- might want to follow suit simply to save their shirts."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-08/why-you-should-short-public-oil-companies (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-08/why-you-should-short-public-oil-companies)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on July 09, 2015, 05:33:51 AM
"Suppose the Kingdom tries to sell off its oil before the price collapses. "

That is exactly what they are doing. I read the work of Tsakolotos (new finance minister for Greece) on the first mover advantage in currency trade breakdowns and see a parallel.

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on July 09, 2015, 05:43:40 PM
Exxon internal docs from 1981 detail knowledge of climate change.

They even decided then not to drill one field because it was thought too dangerous because of its CO2 content.  So they beat Hanson by a few years?

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/08/exxon-climate-change-1981-climate-denier-funding (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/08/exxon-climate-change-1981-climate-denier-funding)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on July 09, 2015, 11:45:49 PM
Hello JimD. Does this mean you are back at last?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 11, 2015, 01:27:40 AM
IEA Says Oil Prices May Fall Even Further Before Supply Fades in 2016
Quote
“Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to grind to a halt in 2016 as lower oil prices and spending cuts take a toll.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/iea-says-oil-price-may-fall-further-before-supply-fades-in-2016 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-10/iea-says-oil-price-may-fall-further-before-supply-fades-in-2016)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2015, 01:30:28 AM
Netherlands bans fracking for five years.
Quote
@billmckibben: Wow! Dutch ban #fracking for 5 years (and by 2020 #fracking, tarsands, will seem delusional) https://t.co/XvwtN7FnHe (https://t.co/XvwtN7FnHe) http://t.co/fZtxsKpTdR (http://t.co/fZtxsKpTdR)
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/619970892970463232 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/619970892970463232)


Reuters:  Dutch government bans shale gas drilling for 5 years
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/netherlands-energy-shale-idUSL8N0ZQ2S720150710 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/10/netherlands-energy-shale-idUSL8N0ZQ2S720150710)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2015, 11:52:30 PM
77 years after seizing private oil and gas assets, Mexico attempts to entice back foreign investment and increase the country's slumping production by auctioning offshore oil blocks.  The results were "disappointing": only two of 14 blocks sold, and the major energy companies did not even participate.  Reasons?  Current low oil price, location of the blocks, and low probability of commercial success.

"Some companies have said they worry about provisions that allow the government to cancel contracts in cases of industrial accidents or spills."

Oil majors shun Mexico auction with just two blocks sold
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2015/7/15/oil-majors-shun-mexico-auction-with-just-two-blocks-sold (http://www.worldoil.com/news/2015/7/15/oil-majors-shun-mexico-auction-with-just-two-blocks-sold)

Mexico Auctions Oil Blocks in Attempt to Increase Production
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/16/business/international/mexico-auctions-oil-blocks-in-attempt-to-increase-production.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/16/business/international/mexico-auctions-oil-blocks-in-attempt-to-increase-production.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 17, 2015, 12:17:37 AM
It looks like the Iran Nuclear Agreement is driving crude oil prices down (which should increase global consumption):

http://marketrealist.com/2015/07/crude-oil-prices-fall-despite-declining-inventories/ (http://marketrealist.com/2015/07/crude-oil-prices-fall-despite-declining-inventories/)

Extract: "The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly crude oil inventory report on July 14, 2015. The government data showed that US oil stockpiles fell by 4.3 MMbbls (million barrels) for the week ended July 10, 2015. Despite declining US inventories, the crude oil market was overshadowed by long-term oversupply concerns. As a result, oil prices declined. The massive Iranian oil inventories of 20 MMbbls also pressured crude oil prices."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 19, 2015, 03:08:29 PM
What's Killing the Babies of Vernal, Utah?
A fracking boomtown, a spike in stillborn deaths and a gusher of unanswered questions
http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/fracking-whats-killing-the-babies-of-vernal-utah-20150622 (http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/fracking-whats-killing-the-babies-of-vernal-utah-20150622)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 20, 2015, 04:08:56 PM
Yet its stock and earnings still go up. ???

Quote
Halliburton has seen sales fall 39 percent in the U.S. and Canada where the industry has reduced the number of operating drilling rigs by more than half. Explorers have cut more than $100 billion from global spending plans for the year after oil prices fell by half from a high in June 2014.
http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NRLF616S972E01-2DB7M0SANSRUIGCCBD3LD84DPR (http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NRLF616S972E01-2DB7M0SANSRUIGCCBD3LD84DPR)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2015, 08:18:19 PM
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 24, 2015, 08:16:24 PM
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years)

i know a couple people here at the asif came from the oil drum after it closed its virtual doors.  i used to lurk there on occasion.  i'd love to hear their opinion on this, since their speculations are probably far more accurate than mine.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on July 25, 2015, 10:34:37 PM
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
There's only one thing holding back a price rebound. It's a big thing.
Quote
Morgan Stanley has been pretty pessimistic about oil prices in 2015, drawing comparisons with the some of the worst oil slumps of the past three decades. The current downturn could even rival the iconic price crash of 1986, analysts had warned—but definitely no worse.

This week, a revision: It could be much worse.
Because?  You guessed it: Supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-23/oil-warning-crash-could-be-worst-in-more-than-45-years)

i know a couple people here at the asif came from the oil drum after it closed its virtual doors.  i used to lurk there on occasion.  i'd love to hear their opinion on this, since their speculations are probably far more accurate than mine.

Well willi and I were on TOD back in 2005 so I guess you mean us.  Besides TOD I have hung around the Peakoil.com website since that time frame also, as well as some actual oil business experience and many friends and family who are still in the business.  I have some depth but would not consider myself a 'real' expert on all aspects of the oil business.

To get the one thing clear which always pops up when TOD or Peak Oil is mentioned.  By the generally accepted definition of peak oil, as was used by most commentors on TOD, Peak Oil was correctly predicted and did happen.  Nothing which is occurring in the production and supply of oil today negates that point.  While traditional oil production did peak there was never going to be this great crash which many glommed onto - there are always crashistas like there were about peak oil just as there are about sea ice, methane, etc.  The folks who really understood the business knew about non-conventional supplies and the techniques which could be used to get at those supplies.  This huge ramp up of non-conventional production is what has generated the situation we have today.  That plus a host of geo-political situations which have impacted which countries are able to produce - think Libya, Iraq, Iran, etc.

To the gist of the article about prices going very low and staying down for some time.  I have actually posted here about that very issue a number of times.  The big surge in non-conventional production which has pushed the Canadian and the US production numbers so high was always a very fragile situation as it is very expensive oil to produce.  If we had not had the peaking of conventional production and the surge in demand which drove prices so high much of this non-conventional production would have not happened.  There would have been no profit in it.  But prices did go high and free money became available due to central bank responses to the great financial crisis.  So off we went.  The result was a huge ramp up in production.  But unbeknownst to most was that much of this non-conventional production was never profitable in a traditional sense.  With current prices almost none of it is making a profit.  The way most of the fracking companies made money in this game was stock fluffing.  Hit a well and trumpet new reserves and the stock jumps.  All the insiders sell a bunch of stock and make millions.  They know that cash flow is not covering costs and that depletion rates are horrible.  But this game can be played forever as long as prices are high enough and loans are essentially free.

But we finally reach the point that supply is just too far over demand and prices start down.  The Saudi's decided that they have had enough with carrying everyone and contrary to expectation and US political pressure they decide to stop acting like patsies and more like John D. Rockefeller - they go all capitalist on us the bastards.  They don't cut production - but ramp it up even higher.  Run the high cost producers out of business - that being all the fracking companies and the tar sands producers.  All it takes is time to wait out the hedged production contracts and wait for borrowing costs to rise.  Loan rates will shoot up and limits will be lowered by the banks since the low crude prices result in much lower valuations for those reserves which were generating all the stock windfalls.  These valuations are set 2 times a year - next in Oct I believe.  Come Oct if prices are still where they are now or quite a bit lower many loans will be cut off and another large percentage of the fracking companies will go bankrupt.  The blood will continue to flow for at least a year or more still.  Maybe longer depending on overseas developments.

Should Iran actually get the sanctions lifted and be able to produce and sell significant amounts of their oil on the market they can produce at least as much as the frackers were.  I am pretty sure that a significant percentage of the high resistance to the Iran deal from the Republicans in the US is more related to Iran ramping up production than the nuclear issue.  Many of these folks are bought and sold by the fossil fuel industry and they do not want Iran being able to add oil to the markets as it guarantees many of the US firms will go broke and employment in their states will suffer.

The frackers who are still in business will produce as much as they can to get the maximum cash flow as cash flow keeps their heads above water.  But the tide is running against them and if the current situation of a global surplus can be maintained they will all eventually die.

Eventually enough expensive production will disappear that prices will once again start rising.  And one could expect them to go pretty high eventually.  I would expect that to happen when the global economy builds following the current downturn which is gathering steam right now.  It could easily be years before that happens and prices could easily go much lower than they are.  But there is no guarantee as global events can always change those dynamics.  Israel could attack the Iranians, Iraqi production could by hit by a negative turn in the situation there, Saudi could find itself dealing with its own internal issues, and so on.  It is very complicated stuff and it is always pretty clear what just happened when one looks back but if one can lock down general trends going forward they are doing pretty good.

All a kind of side show even if it is very interesting, since if we were doing it right we would not be doing any more exploration for any fossil fuels as we know where more of the damn stuff is than we ever dare burn.  And we would be shutting down the use of fossil fuels so fast that there would, for the duration, be way more available than we would allow demand to be.  No more burning coal, get rid of cars, all that stuff we will not be willing to do for a few decades more.  Because we're just stupid as a general rule.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 27, 2015, 11:15:49 AM
thanks, JimD!!! thats exactly the level of detail i was hoping for :)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2015, 07:16:03 PM
.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2015, 05:36:33 PM
One Simple Chart That Shows the Problem Facing Big Oil
Quote
Oil giant BP Plc's second-quarter profit reported this morning missed analyst estimates.

The investor presentation accompanying the earnings call following the results announcement contains one chart that highlights the difficulties faced by BP Plc as cash flow dries up.

Disposals (selling off assets) and underlying cash flow did not cover capex and dividends in the first half of 2015.

It should come as no surprise that BP CEO Bob Dudley spent a good chunk of the call with analysts highlighting how BP is going to cut costs and sell more assets. BP said it will invest "less than" $20 billion this year in projects, rather the "more than" $20 billion it said three months ago.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/one-simple-chart-that-shows-the-problem-facing-big-oil (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/one-simple-chart-that-shows-the-problem-facing-big-oil)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on July 28, 2015, 06:02:42 PM
Ahh we see some sign of capitulation.

Quote
With oil prices hitting their lowest levels since March, a renewed sense of gloom has washed over oil markets, and with it, fears over deeper trouble for U.S. shale companies are spreading.

After hitting $43 per barrel in March, oil prices jumped to $60 per barrel by May and then stayed around that level for almost two months, raising confidence that a rebound was underway, albeit at a slow pace.......

But the optimism is a thing of the past. WTI dipped below $48 per barrel on July 27, not far from the March lows. The low oil prices will likely force a fresh round of layoffs across the shale patch. Halliburton and Baker Hughes have eliminated 27,000 jobs combined, twice as much as they originally announced in February, according to the Wall Street Journal. Months ago job cuts were centered on rig workers and other blue-collar jobs at drilling sites, but now the layoffs are moving up the food chain, hitting engineers and scientists. Usually that is something companies try hard to avoid, for fear of losing irreplaceable talent......

Quote
...With hedging positions expiring, more companies will lose their protection and suffer from low prices. And unlike earlier this year when banks and equity markets were eager to provide cash injections into battered shale companies, betting on a rebound, financial lifelines are not as generous or as accessible as they were just a few months ago. New loans are coming with onerous interest rates. For some of the weakest companies, access to credit could soon be cut off entirely.....

It is not just the US by the way which is getting hammered by this, Russia is going to have big budget problems.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Pessimism-Amongst-Oil-Traders-Reaches-5-Year-High.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Pessimism-Amongst-Oil-Traders-Reaches-5-Year-High.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2015, 10:08:20 PM
Quote
@EricHolthaus: Due to low oil prices, Canada tar sand exploration ‘on hold until 2017′
http://t.co/5x3Bl7pfrL (http://t.co/5x3Bl7pfrL)
KeystoneXL irrelevant. http://t.co/1QAmGZ6YW7 (http://t.co/1QAmGZ6YW7)
Canada tar sand exploration ‘on hold until 2017′
High cost, high carbon source of oil is hit by low oil prices, analysts say, with 5.6bn barrels worth of projects shelved
http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/28/canada-tar-sand-exploration-on-hold-until-2017/#.dpuf (http://www.rtcc.org/2015/07/28/canada-tar-sand-exploration-on-hold-until-2017/#.dpuf)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2015, 02:25:33 AM
Chevron Slumps as Q2 Earnings Plunge on Weak Oil Prices
Production was up, but:
Quote
... gains on the production front could not make up for the sharp downfall in oil prices, the net effect resulting in a huge loss for the upstream segment – at $2,219 billion.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/184498/chevron-slumps-as-q2-earnings-plunge-on-weak-oil-prices (http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/184498/chevron-slumps-as-q2-earnings-plunge-on-weak-oil-prices)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 04, 2015, 10:44:08 PM
Stocks: Retail investors try to pick oil bottom and fail
http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/retail-investors-try-to-pick-oil-bottom-and-fail.html (http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/retail-investors-try-to-pick-oil-bottom-and-fail.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2015, 09:50:26 PM
Quote
The fossil-fuel industry has become the black sheep of the U.S. economy: it’s the only one shedding jobs.

Oil producers, struggling with the lowest prices in six years, have slashed 78,000 jobs through the first seven months of 2015. That wipes out all of the job gains from 2012 to 2014.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-only-major-us-industry-cutting-jobs-2015-08-07 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-only-major-us-industry-cutting-jobs-2015-08-07)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 08, 2015, 04:24:27 PM
The Great Unwind Has Begun, Bankruptcies Soar

Quote
....Already, corporate Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in July have soared 77% year-over-year, to 637 filings, the most in nearly three years, the Wall Street Journal reported,

....The largest bankruptcies in July, according to Bankruptcy Data, included:

Coal producer and mining operator Alpha Natural Resources, with $10.7 billion in pre-petition assets.
Coal producer and exporter Walter Energy with $5.4 billion in pre-petition assets. Both followed the bankruptcy filing of Patriot Coal in May, its second in three years.
Oil and gas producer Sabine Oil & Gas, with $ 2.4 billion in pre-petition assets.
Oil and gas producer Milagro Oil & Gas, with $390 million in pre-petition assets.
The rest in July were smaller.

A word about the harmonious relationship between coal and natural gas: Coal as a fuel for electricity generation has been ravaged for years by the low price of natural gas and by a technological innovation, the rise of highly efficient combined-cycle natural-gas turbines that can be used for base and peak power. At the current low price of natural gas, prevailing more or less since the Financial Crisis, coal doesn’t have a chance.

Neither does natural gas. The price has been so ruinously low that specialized natural gas producers are approaching bankruptcy or have already filed.

But it wasn’t all about energy. According to Fitch, in the first half of the year, companies in energy, metals (another brutalized sector), and mining accounted for 57% of the defaults. The rest were all over the place.....

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/07/the-great-unwind-has-begun-bankruptcies-soar/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/07/the-great-unwind-has-begun-bankruptcies-soar/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2015, 04:38:53 PM
Landmark Paper Underestimated Methane Leaks from Gas Production, Study Says
Since 2003, a commonly used methane detector has been underestimating leak rates that feed into the national greenhouse gas registry.
Quote
Under certain conditions—especially with low-methane natural gas—the second sensor failed to kick in, so the instrument only registered a small leak even if the actual leak rate was much higher. At one point, two separate Bacharach samplers tested by Howard and Ferrara recorded natural gas concentrations in the air of 1 to 6 percent, when the actual concentrations were between 7 and 73 percent.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/04082015/landmark-paper-underestimated-methane-leaks-gas-production-study-says (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/04082015/landmark-paper-underestimated-methane-leaks-gas-production-study-says)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 10, 2015, 09:54:31 PM
This is how serious Saudi Arabia is about crushing the high cost producers.  They are sticking with over production even though it is forcing them to issue debt to maintain their federal budget.  That is commitment I think. 

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-price-slump-pushes-saudi-arabia-to-fund-raise-with-us53b-bonds-sale-20150809-giv88n.html (http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/oil-price-slump-pushes-saudi-arabia-to-fund-raise-with-us53b-bonds-sale-20150809-giv88n.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2015, 07:13:25 PM
Ravaged by Oil’s Collapse, Venezuela Now Has a Big Gold Problem
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/ravaged-by-oil-s-collapse-venezuela-now-has-a-big-gold-problem (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/ravaged-by-oil-s-collapse-venezuela-now-has-a-big-gold-problem)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2015, 08:24:19 PM
A couple posts up there is a link about how the Saudi's are doubling down on their effort to gain market share and crush the high cost producers.

Well it looks like the US fracking industry is also doubling down.  With money getting tighter and tighter now we are seeing the big oil field service companies becoming the lender of last resort. 

Deep desperation.  This could go so wrong.  The phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife." comes to mind.

Quote
...Schlumberger and Halliburton, the two largest service firms, have offered operators the option to “frack now and pay later.” According to Reuters, the new offer amounts to the service firms acting as lenders to oil companies.

Halliburton saw its profit for the second quarter fall by more than a half billion dollars from a year before, and backed by $500 million in cash from asset manager BlackRock, Halliburton is looking “at additional ways of doing business with our customers,” Halliburton’s CEO Dave Lesar said recently.

The “frack now pay later” model that Reuters described consists of companies like Halliburton or Schlumberger covering the cost of drilling a well in exchange for a portion of the well’s production....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Frack-Now-Pay-Later-A-New-Era-In-US-Oil.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Frack-Now-Pay-Later-A-New-Era-In-US-Oil.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 12, 2015, 05:53:07 PM
Green with gas: Oil majors eye UN climate deal
Quote
Six majors have already offered to work with the UN ahead of the Paris summit, writing a letter to its head climate official Christiana Figueres asking for a place at the negotiating table

In return she asked to see their solutions.

So far the companies have made vague pledges to reduce emissions from production plants, curb methane releases and invest in energy efficiency.

But their main play is to push for a global carbon price.

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/08/11/green-with-gas-oil-majors-eye-un-climate-deal/#.dpuf (http://www.rtcc.org/2015/08/11/green-with-gas-oil-majors-eye-un-climate-deal/#.dpuf)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on August 12, 2015, 06:34:26 PM
A couple posts up there is a link about how the Saudi's are doubling down on their effort to gain market share and crush the high cost producers.

Well it looks like the US fracking industry is also doubling down.  With money getting tighter and tighter now we are seeing the big oil field service companies becoming the lender of last resort. 

Deep desperation.  This could go so wrong.  The phrase "Don't try to catch a falling knife." comes to mind.

Quote
...The “frack now pay later” model that Reuters described consists of companies like Halliburton or Schlumberger covering the cost of drilling a well in exchange for a portion of the well’s production....

This concept is making me so angry. They leverage everything multiple times into the future or to other poor people far away. There are way to many ill financial concepts today:
* drill now and pay later
* debt results in the need for cash flow. The cheaper the oil the more you spill out. Could that really help to bring prices up again or any benefit?
* then they'll go default and the lunch must be paid by other people (e.g. rescue a bank or two...)
* Since the people do not want to spend the money, the nation makes some debt

So a few people are now running away with a lot of money they did not work for and your children will have to
* pay back the stolen money 3 fold plus some fantasy interest rate
* life in an AGW world a bit earlier
* not burn any oil/carbon/... anymore
* produce char coal but can not use it because they must bury it to remove the CO2 from sea/atmosphere...

Shouldn't we change some rules today? Since in USA actually most of the produced oil is also consumed in the same nation there should be zero effect of any changing oil price. The current loss of the oil-producers is the gain of the consumers - so you may cancel all effects by adjusting 2 tax rates. If there only were no "financial industry" sucking like mosquito from real working people...

edit: Please understand me right - I am not a fracking fan-boy. Instead I am on the side of the Saudis: The last few tons of oil we may burn should be high EROEI (energy return on energy invested) to minimize CO2. So they should kick out all the dirty oil producers now, spill their easy stuff some more time and then it shall be "oil over" for everybody in the world (just dreaming...).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 12, 2015, 10:12:25 PM
SATire

I sympathize. Unfortunately we live in a system which is less than rational and the oil/fossil fuel business is perhaps the least rational part of all.

While changing oil/fuel taxes, as has been done in Europe, would of course be a good idea here in the US there is zero chance of it happening.  Political suicide for any contemplating it.

Interestingly we are now seeing a big spike in global crude supplies.  The already over supplied market is now seeing some drops in consumption due to the large number of countries experiencing slowing economic conditions.  Since all the producers are going at it full steam and waiting for the other guy to blink we are on the cusp of a big drop in price.  If no one really blinks and I do not think they will for a while yet.  Thus our low crude prices could see a big drop very soon.  Low $30's perhaps.  That would result in some interesting chaos.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on August 13, 2015, 12:49:37 PM
SATire

I sympathize. Unfortunately we live in a system which is less than rational and the oil/fossil fuel business is perhaps the least rational part of all.

While changing oil/fuel taxes, as has been done in Europe, would of course be a good idea here in the US there is zero chance of it happening.  Political suicide for any contemplating it.

Interestingly we are now seeing a big spike in global crude supplies.  The already over supplied market is now seeing some drops in consumption due to the large number of countries experiencing slowing economic conditions.  Since all the producers are going at it full steam and waiting for the other guy to blink we are on the cusp of a big drop in price.  If no one really blinks and I do not think they will for a while yet.  Thus our low crude prices could see a big drop very soon.  Low $30's perhaps.  That would result in some interesting chaos.

I'm not familiar enough with US politics, but generally the time to put in some fuel tax is whern prices are dropping. If gas is going down form $3/gallon to $2/gallon, would the consumer "notice" a 10c/gallon surtax? I know it's not going to do much, but would even something like that be poilical suicide?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 13, 2015, 01:54:25 PM
Quote
... would even something like that be political suicide?
Yes!  Gerrymandered voting districts make representatives (politicians) beholden to relatively extreme points-of-view.  The "all taxes are evil" perspective is dominant these days.  A U.S. President who campaigned "No new taxes!" about 30 years ago and then raised a tax is still being condemned by his own political party.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 04:47:34 PM
Refinery problem sends gasoline prices soaring in upper Midwest. U.S.
http://www.jsonline.com/business/refinery-problem-sends-gasoline-prices-soaring-in-upper-midwest-b99555789z1-321569541.html (http://www.jsonline.com/business/refinery-problem-sends-gasoline-prices-soaring-in-upper-midwest-b99555789z1-321569541.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on August 13, 2015, 06:52:49 PM
Nice. So they have found a direct way around that strange U.S. tax issue to fix the problem... Just assuming that "beyond petroleum" is also spilling fracking oil and now cancelling the oil price drop on its own...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 14, 2015, 02:15:12 AM
Big Oil in Retreat   

Quote
With ever more oil entering the market and a future seeded with yet more of the same, only an unlikely major boost in demand could halt a further price drop.  Although American consumers are driving more and buying bigger vehicles in response to lower gas prices, Europe shows few signs of recovery from its present austerity moment, and China, following a catastrophic stock market contraction in June, is in no position to take up the slack.  Put it all together and the prognosis seems inescapable: low oil prices for the foreseeable future.
...
Woe, then, to the $100 barrel of oil, since [China's] economy has been cooling off since 2014 and its growth is projected to fall below 7% this year, the lowest rate in decades.  This means, in turn, less demand for extra oil.  China’s consumption rose only 300,000 barrels per day in 2014 and is expected to remain sluggish for years to come.  “[T]he likelihood now is that import growth will be minimal for the next two or three years,” energy expert Nick Butler of the Financial Times observed.  “That in turn will compound and extend the existing surplus of supply over demand.”

Finally, don’t forget the Paris climate summit this December.  Although no one yet knows what, if anything, it will accomplish, dozens of countries have already submitted preliminary plans for the steps they will pledge to take to reduce their carbon emissions.  These include, for example, tax breaks and other incentives for those acquiring hybrid and electric-powered cars, along with increased taxes on oil and other forms of carbon consumption.  Should such measures begin to kick in, demand for oil will take another hit and conceivably its use will actually drop years before supplies become scarce.
...
Most of us are used to following the ups and downs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as a shorthand gauge for the state of the world economy.  However, following the ups and downs of the price of Brent crude may, in the end, tell us far more about world affairs on our endangered planet.

http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176035/ (http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176035/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 18, 2015, 10:02:00 PM
How The EPA Plans To Cut Methane Emissions From Oil And Gas Wells
Quote
Tuesday’s proposed action focuses on new hydraulically fracked oil and gas wells.
...It would also extend the requirements farther downstream from the oil and gas extraction sites, meaning that leaks along the transmission infrastructure would be reduced. Operators would be required to find and repair leaks under the proposal.
...
The new rule comes days after the EPA announced a proposal to tackle methane emissions from your local dump. On Friday, the administration proposed new updated regulations on landfills to cut methane emissions caused by decaying organic matter in landfills by almost a third.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/18/3692669/new-methane-rule/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/18/3692669/new-methane-rule/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: P-maker on August 20, 2015, 12:01:59 AM
French multi-national Total yesterday threw in the white towel:

http://www.thelocal.dk/20150818/denmarks-first-potential-fracking-project-dropped (http://www.thelocal.dk/20150818/denmarks-first-potential-fracking-project-dropped)

This may be the end of fracking in Europe.

Go for it US Republicans!
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Clare on August 20, 2015, 09:05:39 AM
from New Zealand - Northland iwi face Statoil over oil drilling plans
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/element-magazine/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503340&objectid=11497824 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/element-magazine/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503340&objectid=11497824)

"Three Māori activists enter a palatial-looking building in Stavanger, Norway. Inside, in a high-tech auditorium, on a broad, sleek stage, sit the chief executives of one of the world's largest oil and gas companies.

It's a familiar David and Goliath story: indigenous activists staring down a multinational oil corporation that wants to drill in their territory.

But this time, the oil executives have to listen. Greenpeace holds token shares in the oil company, guaranteeing the Māori delegation the right to speak at Statoil's annual shareholder meeting.

Addressing the auditorium, Mike Smith (Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Kahu) speaks calmly and clearly. He announces that he has been sent as a representative of Māori tribes, and tells the board in no uncertain terms: "You don't have permission to be in our tribal waters." He warns that the tribes will go to the United Nations to seek protection.................."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2015, 09:30:20 PM
Oklahoma Has Had More Earthquakes So Far In 2015 Than It Did In All Of 2014
Quote
A little over eight months into the year, Oklahoma has broken a new yearly record for earthquakes.

The state recorded its 587th earthquake of 3.0 magnitude or higher early this week, breaking the previous record of 585. That record was set for all of 2014, meaning that Oklahoma has now had more 3.0 magnitude or higher earthquakes so far in 2015 than it did in all of 2014. So far this year, E&E News reports, Oklahoma’s averaged 2.5 quakes each day, a rate that, if it continues, means the state could see more than 912 earthquakes by the end of this year.

Oklahoma has also experienced 21 4.0 magnitude or greater earthquakes so far this year — an increase over last year, which saw 14.

Last year, Oklahoma was the most seismically active state in the lower 48 U.S. states. Its 585 quakes were a major spike from the year before, which saw around 100 earthquakes. In 2014, the state had already surpassed its 2013 record by April.
...
The injection of fracking wastewater has been confirmed as a possible earthquake trigger by the U.S. Geological Survey, and according to the agency, earthquakes linked to fracking are on the rise in the U.S.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/20/3693448/oklahoma-earthquakes-2015-record/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/20/3693448/oklahoma-earthquakes-2015-record/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2015, 10:08:41 PM
Quote
@insideclimate: Problem for pipelines:Sinking land amid aquifer depletion, creating fissures, erratic underground shifts. @SNLEnergy  http://t.co/TcrTT9wtfJ (http://t.co/TcrTT9wtfJ)
https://twitter.com/insideclimate/status/634424650089402368 (https://twitter.com/insideclimate/status/634424650089402368)
Sink, fissure and flood: West's water issues challenge pipelines
https://www.snl.com/MobileX/UI/Pages/News/Article.aspx?cdid=A-33579476-10028 (https://www.snl.com/MobileX/UI/Pages/News/Article.aspx?cdid=A-33579476-10028)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 02:12:22 AM
Crude Hits 6-Year Low, Stocks Crash & Oil Supplies Rise
Quote
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed that crude stockpiles rose unexpectedly. The report further revealed that within the ‘refined products’ category, gasoline stocks fell, while distillate supplies were up from the week-ago level.

Following the bearish data from the U.S. government, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures tumbled 4.3% to settle at $40.80 per barrel Wednesday, the lowest since Mar 2009.
http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/187145/crude-hits-6-year-low-stocks-crash-oil-supplies-rise (http://www.readability.com/m?url=http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/187145/crude-hits-6-year-low-stocks-crash-oil-supplies-rise)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 02:25:07 AM
US crude oil's break-even cost: How low can it go?
"I think we're going to test those break-evens at every play across the country," says one energy research analyst.
Quote
U.S. crude threatened to break below $40 per barrel for the first time since early 2009 this week, raising fresh fears about the cost of producing crude in America's oil patch—or perhaps "patches" is the better term.

Perhaps the only fall in the energy complex as spectacular has been the break-even cost to U.S. drillers of producing a barrel of oil.

Those costs vary widely across the country's shale fields—from Texas' prolific Permian Basin to the Northeast's gassy Marcellus Shale—but productivity gains have helped producers continue pumping. However, with many analysts now expecting U.S. crude to fall into the $30s, the question is how low can prices go before producers turn off the tap.

It's still cost-effective down to prices of $10 per barrel to maintain many existing wells across the United States, which is why drillers have not shut in production. But producers face a significantly higher bar when it comes to authorizing new production, because the cost of drilling and finishing a well accounts for the lion's share of lifetime costs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-crude-oils-break-even-cost-how-low-can-it-go.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/us-crude-oils-break-even-cost-how-low-can-it-go.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 21, 2015, 02:16:34 PM
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again)

Yes....it will be interesting when oil gets down to $20.  You think politics is bad now....wait till oil is in the $20's.

Oil companies will be screaming that they should be drilling all that they can....and people who understand global warming will be saying NO F$$$ING WAY.

Hopefully we'll make the right choice.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on August 21, 2015, 03:44:25 PM
...wait till oil is in the $20's.

Oil companies will be screaming that they should be drilling all that they can

Umm, no. With oil at that price they won't want to drill - it is just too costly to justify.

Everyone is ramping up production from existing wells to keep the cash flow going. It will be interesting to see how long that can last.

There will be a period, couple of years?, with little drilling. Low costs allow low prices to continue and perhaps fall further as high cost producers try to wait it out hoping for a miracle to save them.

However at some point old wells start to run dry and production will fall due to lack of investment.

Scenario 1. Production could start to fall due to lack of new wells and with little investment in drilling, prices could shoot upwards. People will then certainly want to drill but there will still be a period of high prices as it takes a while to drill and get production going. So upward price spike as problems unravel.

Scenario 2. Saudi as low cost producer can just keep pumping more oil as they gain market share. Oil prices stay low enough to keep higher cost competitors out of market.

Scenario 3. Saudi cannot continue to keep increasing production at low cost adequately but maybe the industry is smart enough (and has access to finance as required and where sensible) to start drilling just before production starts to fall and avoid such problems. Oil prices climb back up a bit but does so quite smoothly.

I cannot see enough investment in renewables and energy efficiency measures being possible to avoid sharp spike in scenario 1 even if that is the current route. A combination of scenarios 2 and 3 seems more plausible than scenario 1 anyway.

For the Saudis, a long time at $35 seems more beneficial than a short period at $20 so I cannot see Saudis pushing the price as low as $20 as a short period won't do the job, companies will try to hang on through a short period.

I think it would take a big drop in demand probably from global recession to cause such low prices as I doubt production can be ramped up much more without significant investment which won't happen at current prices.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 21, 2015, 06:52:48 PM
Additional points to add to Crandles list.

Iraq has boosted production significantly and will want to keep it up regardless of what the Saudis do.  This will help to keep prices low.

Iran will dramatically boost production if sanctions are lifted.  Trying to stop this is one of the big factors in the resistance to the Iran deal by US conservatives as they are bought and sold by the oil industry.  Any Iranian production will push prices down.

As the China and much of the rest of the globe go into big economic slowdowns or recessions this will push demand down in those countries which will boost supply and push prices down.

There is potential for Libya to increase production if the civil war there settles out.

At least us Americans are trying to boost consumption by buying vast quantities of big vehicles (snark).

Not that it is not possible to hit $20 bbl oil.  But I would be surprised if it went that low and if it did I doubt it would stay low like that for very long.  $30  bbl is very possible.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 21, 2015, 08:59:03 PM
Current WTI hit $39.86 and futures hit $40.45 today.

US markets fell like a stone.  China way down and commodities falling hard.

Getting interesting.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/21/us-markets-global-growth.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/21/us-markets-global-growth.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 22, 2015, 03:24:13 PM
Quote
...wait till oil is in the $20's.

Quote
Umm, no. With oil at that price they won't want to drill - it is just too costly to justify.

Yee of little faith.  The price of oil WILL move into the $20's ($20 - $29).  That is only a little more than 25% from here.  Is it going to move into the low $20's...mid $20's...or high $20's?  I have no idea.  But unless Saudi Arabia cuts back soon....the price will definitely get into the $20's.

You see....there are too many companies in the US that are pumping out oil who have MARGINAL COSTS LESS THAN THE CURRENT PRICE OF OIL.

It isn't TOTAL COST that you need to look at now...its MARGINAL COST.  As long as they can sell oil above their marginal cost to pump more oil....they will.  They have too much debt on their balance sheets to service.  They have note payables and bond obligations they HAVE TO MEET EACH month.  They have no choice.

There will CERTAINLY be a large pull back in "cap ex" (capital expenditures) by the oil companies in FUTURE well drilling.  But any wells they have now.....where their marginal cost is less than the price they get for oil....they will be pumping.

Saudi Arabia holds ALL THE CARDS right now.  In previous years.....the Saudi's would cut back THEIR production of oil to maintain a higher market price.  This time....the Saudi's are NOT doing that.  They are producing more oil than they ever have.

The Saudi's have "deep pockets"....and have HUGE financial reserves they can tap into for several YEARS.  The Saudi's are going to push most of the "marginal players" (ie the small to intermediate sized companies) into bankruptcy.

You will see oil in the $20's WITHIN the next 12 months (it could be a LOT faster than 12 months).

You're gong to see the O & G industry go through more consolidation over the coming decade as oil and gas continues on its "death slide".  It will be MANY decades until we don't use oil and gas at all (is it 5 decades....10 decades...?).  But the path is now crystal clear.

A company like the large French oil company Total....saw this coming YEARS AGO.  They bought 50% of Sunpower (US solar company) three or four years ago.  Total also has come out and said THEY WILL NEVER DRILL IN THE ARCTIC.  They "get it."

Large pension funds will continue to divest from oil and gas companies over the next 5 - 10 years and the "run for the door" will become a stampede.  Exxon will never EVER see $100 a share in its stock.  It will see $30 a share within 3 or 4 years.

Remember....oil and gas prices are set by the "bid"...not the "ask".  As in all the markets...the BUYER sets the ACTUAL PRICE that something sells for....not the seller.


     
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on August 22, 2015, 03:56:09 PM
Remember....oil and gas prices are set by the "bid"...not the "ask".  As in all the markets...the BUYER sets the ACTUAL PRICE that something sells for....not the seller.

Thats why gas sells for $0.01 a gallon. </sarc>
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 22, 2015, 04:17:25 PM
Timely article on Saudi oil versus their economy:

How Much Longer Can Saudi Arabia's Economy Hold Out Against Cheap Oil?
Saudi Arabia got lucky when the oil price fell in 1998. What about now?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/how-much-longer-can-saudi-arabia-s-economy-hold-out-against-cheap-oil- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/how-much-longer-can-saudi-arabia-s-economy-hold-out-against-cheap-oil-)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 22, 2015, 04:20:04 PM
I'll bet the Koch Brothers and other O&G players are THRILLED with solar in Texas..... ;D

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/21/the-weekend-wonk-newest-texas-energy-boom-is-solar/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/21/the-weekend-wonk-newest-texas-energy-boom-is-solar/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 23, 2015, 12:03:39 AM
Buddy

I am on board with all you said above and have actually written almost all of it in previous posts in this thread.   But Crandles points largely stand as well.

You may be right about where the price goes.  I don't think it will go that low but like I said

Quote
Not that it is not possible to hit $20 bbl oil.  But I would be surprised if it went that low and if it did I doubt it would stay low like that for very long.  $30  bbl is very possible.

There are a host of forces counteracting all of the points we agree on.  Very large numbers of companies are going to go belly up and most likely a few governments.  The USG is going to get involved in this situation and while some of its actions might be predictable the end results of them are not (as is always the case).  What if the Republicans can kill the Iran deal?  What happens if Venezuela falls into civil war?  There are many possibilities and untold unknowns.

One of the big impacts is going to come circa Oct when the biannual restructuring of the loans the frackers are trying so desperately to service (as you mentioned) next happens.  With the price of oil so low now a large number of the companies will not get past this point as the amounts they can borrow are based upon the collateral of their reserves.  But the value of those reserves has plummeted and may be a lot lower by Oct than it is now.  So Oct/Nov is likely to see a lot of the US fracking production disappear as those companies get shut down.  The big guys will come in a pick up reserves very cheap when this happens, but they will not produce them.  They will largely sit on them and wait for prices to rise to make a killing as they will not have loans to meet.

All very interesting stuff.  The oil business is fascinating.

But the real key to this situation for the readers here is that the oil price situation is very bad for the renewable industry.  In any situation where renewables directly compete with oil the break even cost point has moved very strongly in oils direction and may well go even further (The above argument also applies to natural gas to a great extent).  This coupled with the growing weakness in the global economy, which also works against the roll out of renewables, does not bode well for those invested in renewables solving our problems.  (I am safe from such uncomfortable feelings since I am not a member of that group  ;D )
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 24, 2015, 01:42:54 PM
Next few weeks will be "interesting" for oil and gas (O & G) stocks.  Oil continues its long term trend DOWN...and stocks are taking a beating.

Exxon/Mobil is the "poster child" for where oil is heading.....as it has broken a long term line.

As O & G stocks take a beating.....the solar stocks are also correcting in a BIG WAY in unison.

The POLICY IMPLICATIONS of the next year or two are SIGNIFICANT.  As I said before....the O & G players will want two things:

1)  Will want the US to hurry up and open LNG (liquefied natural gas) EXPORT facilities so they can export US nat gas (which is much cheaper to produce than nat gas from Europe and elsewhere)

2)  They will want the US to export oil

3)  They will be clamoring about the Keystone Pipeline which can carry oil from Canada down to the US ports in the Gulf of Mexico and Cushing, OK.

And this is happening at a time when global warming is becoming more and more obvious....AND...at time of the presidential election over the next 14 months (not to mention the meeting in Paris coming up).

So there are a LOT of things converging over the next 14 months or so....and this is a CRUCIAL time for people to be making the CORRECT POLICY decisions.

For investors....the next few weeks will provide another "opportunity" to invest in solar stocks as the market CONTINUES to get battered....and oil prices continue to slide SOUTH (with other commodities).

Interesting times indeed... ;D

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2015, 09:02:23 PM
Citigroup:  “The straightforward answer to whether cheap oil threatens renewables is no – at first glance, oil poses few direct threats to renewables.”
Quote
Citigroup says that two common statements have dominated recent dialogue: 1) that cheap oil will deal a serious blow to renewables, and 2) because oil and renewables rarely compete in the power sector, the impact will be minor.

It says neither is strictly true. Citigroup believes the fall in the oil price is terminal – it says the days of triple figure oil prices are over – meaning the end to some high-risk, high-polluting oil ventures in marginal regions such as the Arctic, tar sands and deepwater.

On the other hand, the long-term outlook for renewables remains bright. “Fundamental factors – increasing economic competitiveness, energy security, and environmental goals – all remain potent forces driving ever more rapid adoption of renewable energy globally.”

Wind and solar costs have fallen dramatically, and these cost declines should continue. On an unsubsidised basis, wind farms are getting built at costs below $40/MWh in some regions. Recent solar auctions in the Middle East have produced prices below $60/MWh.

“The straightforward answer to whether cheap oil threatens renewables is no – at first glance, oil poses few direct threats to renewables.”

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/02/citigroup-battle-between-cheap-oil-renewables-will-define-future-of-energy/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2015/04/02/citigroup-battle-between-cheap-oil-renewables-will-define-future-of-energy/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 24, 2015, 09:03:38 PM
Even at $10/barrel, oil can’t match solar on cost
Quote
One of the biggest banks in the Middle East and the oil-rich Gulf countries says that fossil fuels can no longer compete with solar technologies on price, and says the vast bulk of the $US48 trillion needed to meet global power demand over the next two decades will come from renewables.

The report from the National Bank of Abu Dhabi says that while oil and gas has underpinned almost all energy investments until now, future investment will be almost entirely in renewable energy sources.

The report is important because the Gulf region, the Middle East and north Africa will need to add another 170GW of electricity in the next decade, and the major financiers recognise that the cheapest and most effective way to go is through solar and wind. It also highlights how even the biggest financial institutions in the Gulf are thinking about how to deploy their capital in the future.

“Cost is no longer a reason not to proceed with renewables,” the 80-page NBAD report says. It says the most recent solar tender showed that even at $10/barrel for oil, and $5/mmbtu for gas, solar is still a cheaper option.

The bank says intermittency of wind and solar is not an issue, notes that fossil fuels resources are finite and becoming increasing hard to reach, notes that governments want local supplies and want to disconnect from the volatility of the oil price, and says policy frameworks are seeking to decarbonise economies in response to climate and pollution concerns.

Remember, this is coming from a leading bank in the oil-rich Gulf, the most emissions-intensive countries in the world, and where energy demand is rising so quickly it risks overwhelming domestic production, turning states such as Kuwait and UAE into importers of energy rather than exporters. Hence the local push into solar, so that the Gulf states can keep more gas or oil for export.

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/even-at-10barrel-oil-cant-match-solar-on-cost-37540 (http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/even-at-10barrel-oil-cant-match-solar-on-cost-37540)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 24, 2015, 09:11:25 PM
I TOTALLY agree with the sentiment of Citigroup regarding oil vs renewables.

That is one of the reasons why Exxon and other oil companies are a DEEP DOODOO.  It will take many years (decades) for them to "unwind"....and it will be UGLY for them.

We have only seen the first stages of divestiture by many pension funds.  It is pretty obvious to everyone except for the people getting paid by O & G proponents (Bastardi, Watts, Inhoffe, etc)...that fossil fuel is TOAST.

Of course....we will have to put up with the side effects of dropping fossil fuel use, like (1) better health (not breathing in coal dust & other pollutants from fossil fuels), (2) lower cost (3) and less warming of the planet.  But I think we can live with those side effects..... ;)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on August 24, 2015, 10:50:33 PM
Well needless to say I think most content of the last 3 posts are wrong.

One needs to spend some time with the links numbers to see if what they are saying is just marketing BS or not.  A very large percentage of press reports are not worth the paper they used to be printed on.  Every one of those people or companies has an agenda wrapped around money.  So you know how far you can trust them.  For instance the comment that oil at $10 bbl cannot compete is pretty fishy since Saudi is figured to produce much of its oil at $5 bbl.  And show me some calculations where renewables can produce power at equivalent to $10 bbl which can stand up to some rigorous analysis.

One needs to keep in mind that just as for the various fossil fuels there are renewable lobbies who spout verbiage designed to move opinion, deflect opinion, draw investment and to hide reality.  Renewables has become a big business/industry and it uses the same tactics as any other industry to make its money.  It works hard for its subsidies and depends on them just like the fossil fuel companies do.  Tesla would not exist but for subsidies.  These people do not do this because they are trying to save the world you know. 

Oil in general does not compete with renewables and there is no doubt that over the last 6 months oil has gained on renewables a lot in the places where it does compete.  A lot.  Same for natural gas which does more directly compete with renewables.  Over time fossil fuel use is going to die of course.  But that time is far away unfortunately.

This idea that Exxon and other oil companies are going to go bankrupt or something is nonsense in any near term time frame.  The big investors in this are not stupid and they will milk all the return on investment they can for as long as they can.  They will take their capital and reinvest it as it frees up in other energy fields - most likely renewables.  It is all about return on investment. 

Divestiture has zero impact on any energy company as there are innumerable deep pocket investors who will provide capital as long as the returns are in line with what rent they are seeking.

Some of the 'other' side effects are a deep drop in energy available per capita and the devastating impact that will have on the level of civilization we can put on the field.  That will bite a bit too.  Costs of renewables, which are much higher than the lobbies talk about or acknowledge, will perhaps be less than the total of fossil fuels all right.  But we are used to not counting the external costs and in shear capacity to do work the fossil fuels cannot be matched.   I think that when you analyze the impacts in totality of the loss of fossil fuels that there will be a very strong net negative in terms of increasing death rates, declining overall quality of health, less capacity to maintain current lifestyles (afterall everyone is about bau it seems).

The declining global financial situation (basically setting up to repeat a lot of the 2009 debacle) severely constrains the ability of governments all over the world to make the renewable transition.  Ignoring external costs (which is still going to be the norm for a long time) it is easily cheaper to stick with existing forms of generation as the capital has already been invested.  In some cases even new capacity will be cheaper in that calculation than going with renewables will be.  This transition will take a very long time.  Time which is no longer available as collapse is overtaking us.

I note that there seems to be a sense of competition towards what I have been saying by a number of folks.  As if I am arguing FOR fossil fuels as opposed to renewables.  I have said repeatedly that if I were in charge I would ban the use of coal day one and phase out oil/gas at speed.

The point I keep trying to make here is that the BAU approach of the advocates of renewables being able to "replace' fossil fuels and then we can go on with our lives as they exist today is insane.  It is just not possible.  If we are to actually really seek solutions we need to work on the core causes of our problems.  Not treat the symptoms with some new pain killer which relieves the immediate reason for discomfort while the patient goes ahead and dies.  It is not that I am against spending resources on pain medication as it were, but if we don't treat the disease we die.  So put some effort into that please.

 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 25, 2015, 12:48:43 AM
Today, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, slipped $2.21 to close at $38.24 a barrel; which is the first time this benchmark slipped below $40/barrel since February 2009.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on August 25, 2015, 07:47:27 AM
...

But the real key to this situation for the readers here is that the oil price situation is very bad for the renewable industry.  In any situation where renewables directly compete with oil the break even cost point has moved very strongly in oils direction and may well go even further (The above argument also applies to natural gas to a great extent).  This coupled with the growing weakness in the global economy, which also works against the roll out of renewables, does not bode well for those invested in renewables solving our problems.  (I am safe from such uncomfortable feelings since I am not a member of that group  ;D )

My thoughts exactly.

Even if renewables do catch fossil fuels in terms of competitiveness, this drop in oil and other energy prices will cause the transition to be delayed by several years. And those several years are critical at this stage. In my opinion it kills the last chance that a miracle might happen in the BAU trajectory (not that I had such illusions, but black swans might occur to the upside too).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 03:51:17 PM
Big Oil hates a California climate bill so much that it’s telling outright lies about it
Quote
In a mailing sent to California households (including mine), Big Oil has risen to a new level of hysterical ooga booga. Not content to rely on the facts, they claim the legislature is considering the “The California Gas Restriction Act of 2015.” This new law will result in “gas rationing to control when families can fill their tanks, surcharges on non-hybrid mini-vans and SUV’s, penalties and fines for drivers who use too much gas,” and lord knows what else.

The problem? There is no such bill.
http://grist.org/climate-energy/big-oil-hates-a-california-climate-bill-so-much-that-its-telling-outright-lies-about-it/ (http://grist.org/climate-energy/big-oil-hates-a-california-climate-bill-so-much-that-its-telling-outright-lies-about-it/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 25, 2015, 04:02:16 PM
Quote
Well needless to say I think most content of the last 3 posts are wrong.

I'll TRY to make this as short as possible  ;)...and just address pertinent items:

1) 
Quote
One needs to keep in mind that just as for the various fossil fuels there are renewable lobbies.
   

Next you will be telling me that the Boy Scouts have lobbyists ;D  The Boy Scouts DO have lobbyists....as well as renewable energy.  Personally....I hate ALL LOBBYISTS.  Although...if it weren't for FOX News....many of them would be out of work ;)

 
2)  "I TOTALLY agree with the SENTIMENT of the Citigroup regarding oil vs renewables."

Agreeing with the SENTIMENT....does NOT mean that I agree with its details.  Those are very different animals.   Do I see $10 oil?  Certainly not.  Would $10 oil "crimp" renewable?  Certainly it would effect it.  But oil is "loosing its luster".   And now companies are looking DOWN THE ROAD...now that the "picture" of that road is coming more clearly into focus.  And that focus means that fossil fuels need to "go away".  Change is difficult.  The "free market" (well...mostly free) will help push it out the door. 
 
3)  Subsidies:  I would LOVE to see ALL subsidies go away.  But the OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY WOULD NEVER GO FOR THAT.  They are the LARGEST recipient of incentives and subsides by a LARGE MARGIN.  Some folks are calling for "subsidies" for renewable to go away....but the people pushing for those incentives to go away DON'T want the fossil fuel incentives to go away.  I wonder why?

Small companies ( ;)) like Walmart and Google don't HAVE to install solar.  They are choosing to.  A large part of that calculation is cost...both current and future

4)  Coal was the "most obvious" of three primary fossil fuels to get hit first...and it will still take a LONG WHILE to play out (many decades).  Oil is the second in line to get hit...and natural gas will be the last to get hit.  I am actually VERY BULLISH on natural gas as an investment over the next 5 - 20 years as LNG EXPORT facilities come on line in the US.  Supply and demand.  I think it is crappy for the environment...but as an investment, the next decade or two certainly looks good for nat gas.  You see....I'm not a lobbyist.

Before....it didn't make a lot of sense to use electric cars....because you were charging them up with electricity produced by coal plants.  That...is quickly being replaced by both nat gas and renewables as coal's portion of the energy pie continues to drop.  Coal is the red-headed step child (my apologies if you are a red head like me ;)).  The other two will take longer to go the way of the dodo bird....but their day (or decade) is coming further on down the road.

5) 
Quote
This idea that Exxon and other oil companies are going to go bankrupt or something is nonsense in any near term time frame.

There will be MANY BANKRUPTIES of small and perhaps some intermediate sized O & G companies in the next few years.  The "marginal players" have too much debt on their books they have to service.  Remember...they were drilling when price was $100....and now its $40.  Something tells me their spreadsheet "pro forma's" are not looking so great.  And that is why they will continue to pump....because they don't have the financial wherewithal to pull back once they have their "sunk costs" (fixed costs) in the ground.  As long as their marginal cost is less than the price...they will keep pumping.  But nobody that I know...thinks that EXXON is going into bankruptcy anytime soon. Maybe you have been watching too much FOX News?  I know....."fair and balanced."....:)

4) 
Quote
Oil in general does not compete with renewables and there is no doubt that over the last 6 months oil has gained on renewables

You can't have it both ways.  Either it is competing or it is not competing.  Which is it?  They all play in the same large pool.....maybe different parts of it....but it is ALL INTERRLATED in some way.

5) 
Quote
The big investors in this are not stupid and they will milk all the return on investment they can for as long as they can.

Oh...so they are smart executives the likes of which were at:   Blockbuster, Wang Computer, WorldCom, American Airlines, Enron, General Motors, etc....etc....etc....  That makes me feel a LOT better ;)

The financial history is littered with a LOT of "smart people"......that were short on wisdom.  Ego can be blinding....and especially with a company with HIGH FIXED COSTS and a lot of debt....it isn't easy to "turn on a dime."  I think many of them have already MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY....

6)
Quote
Divestiture has zero impact on any energy company as there are innumerable deep pocket investors who will provide capital as long as the returns are in line with what rent they are seeking.

a)  I did NOT realize that the universe of deep pocket investors was endless.
b)  Prices are set by the INCREMENTAL investor.  Take some of the investors away....and you bring down the price of the equity or debt.  There IS an effect.  And that effect will be on their "cost of capital" (debt).  It will increase slightly over time.

7) 
Quote
Some of the 'other' side effects are a deep drop in energy available per capita and the devastating impact that will have on the level of civilization we can put on the field
.

WOW.  You must have been watching an Al Gore horror flick:)  Full disclosure...I'm NOT an Al Gore fan.

Two things:  (a)  First....the energy available per capita WILL BE DROPPING.... IT IS HAPPENING NOW because of efficiency in all areas of energy (car mileage....building insulation...improved solar....improved wind....nat gas rather than coal....lighting costs dropping....etc..etc).  EVERYWHERE.  We're going to CONTINUE to drop the amount of energy WE NEED PER CAPITA....so we NEED LESS ENERGY PER CAPITA.  That is a GOOD THING.

(b)  I think the "level of civilization" will be just fine (whatever you mean by level of civilization).  I have a "news flash" for you:  The "level of civilization" is on a LONG ROAD UP.  We have a LONG WAY TO GO...but very good prospects.  Once we get rid of people and companies that lie for a living (FOX News...Bill O'Reilly....Sean Hannity....Tony Watts....most lobbyists...etc)....I think the prospects are VERY GOOD INDEED.

8) 
Quote
Costs of renewables, which are much higher than the lobbies talk about or acknowledge, will perhaps be less than the total of fossil fuels all right.  But we are used to not counting the external costs and in shear capacity to do work the fossil fuels cannot be matched.
 

Cost of renewables continues to drop like a stone.  Germany produced 78% of their energy for one day a few weeks ago.  And this is GERMANY.....think Seattle....not the sunniest place in the world.  With every passing day, more and more places will be able to "replace" fossil fuels.  But it WON'T happen over night.

9) 
Quote
I think that when you analyze the impacts in totality of the loss of fossil fuels that there will be a very strong net negative in terms of increasing death rates, declining overall quality of health, less capacity to maintain current lifestyles

I could say something like..."you've got to be kidding"....."are you saying that with a straight face"...or...."what oil and gas company did you say you work for".....but I won't.  Instead...you can look up the GAZILLIONS of research articles that show just how bad vehicle emissions are for people.  Or....better yet....go visit Beaumont, Texas sometime.  You'll smell it before you even get to the city limits.   In Texas they say..."if you like benzene....you'll love Beaumont."

http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2014/12/17/study-reduced-emissions-from-electric-cars-could-prevent-thousands-of-deaths/ (http://scienceblogs.com/thepumphandle/2014/12/17/study-reduced-emissions-from-electric-cars-could-prevent-thousands-of-deaths/)

http://www.eesi.org/articles/view/new-research-documents-frackings-health-effects-on-workers-and-communities (http://www.eesi.org/articles/view/new-research-documents-frackings-health-effects-on-workers-and-communities)

http://www2.epa.gov/air-research/near-source-air-pollution-research (http://www2.epa.gov/air-research/near-source-air-pollution-research)

10 
Quote
The declining global financial situation (basically setting up to repeat a lot of the 2009 debacle) severely constrains the ability of governments all over the world to make the renewable transition.  Ignoring external costs (which is still going to be the norm for a long time)


There is no "repeat of the 2009 debacle".  The last debacle, in large part, was because of too much leverage in the system (investment banks talked the Bush administration to allow change the system to allow them to leverage WAY TOO MUCH...in combination with other factors that caused too much leverage in other places like homebuying...car buying..etc).  The only "debacle" now...is China...which is a mess.  The US is actually doing pretty well....considering we are recovering from an almost total meltdown of the banking system in 2008.

11) 
Quote
I note that there seems to be a sense of competition towards what I have been saying by a number of folks.


?????????  Discussions are NOT competitions.  People HAVE different opinions.  Some of those opinions will END UP being CLOSER TO REALITY....and some won't.  And we won't KNOW until "later on."

The "tipping point" on renewable energy is now BEHIND US.  Now....we will be in an era of INCREASED MOMENTUM of that sea change.  There will be MANY companies that prosper....and many (old line) companies that fail.  That is the way that change works.

Humanity has such a LONG WAY TO GO.  We have just BARELY begun to tap into things that will change our lives for the better.  Using the sun and wind......is just ONE of the major changes that is now taking place.

Combine that with changes that will be coming in COMMUNICATION, HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY, ACCOUTABILITY (are you listening FOX News?), and other areas.......I am REALLY bullish.

BUT....we (humans) have to realize that the QUICKER WE GET AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS....the better off we will be FROM A HEALTH STANDPOINT....AND....FROM A COST STANDPOINT.

There are only 2 things that we do with our "waking hours":  (1)  make decisions, and (2) execute on decisions.  In order to make GOOD DECISIONS....we need (a) good information, (b) good communication, (c) accountability, and most importantly (d) good people.  And that certainly applies to decisions "we" are making about the move away from fossil fuels.

 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 25, 2015, 07:16:09 PM
Anyone for a swim???

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/25/dry-rivers-low-prices-make-a-double-whammy-for-tar-sands-oil/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/25/dry-rivers-low-prices-make-a-double-whammy-for-tar-sands-oil/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 04:33:18 PM
For Oil Producers Cash Is King, and That's Why They Just Can't Stop Drilling
Quote
Executives defend the grow-at-all-costs strategy by saying they’ve changed their methods to be more efficient. Costs for some companies have fallen more than 20 percent, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, and higher productivity has improved the outlook even at $40 oil. Growth is the natural outcome of drilling good wells, according to producers embracing such plans.

“At Cimarex, we’re not shipwreck victims waiting for a rescue ship,” Chief Executive Officer Thomas Jorden said in an investor presentation on Aug. 18. “That ship’s not coming.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/blame-oil-glut-on-investors-who-still-love-drilling-over-profits-idryi3h1 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/blame-oil-glut-on-investors-who-still-love-drilling-over-profits-idryi3h1)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 26, 2015, 09:05:53 PM
Bankruptcy article (just one of MANY).  This one was from back in May of this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/-shale-ionaires-suffering-from-wave-of-bankrupt-oil-drillers (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/-shale-ionaires-suffering-from-wave-of-bankrupt-oil-drillers)

This one is from August of this year:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/08/17/as-oil-goes-down-bankruptcies-go-up-these-5-frackers-could-be-the-next-to-fall/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2015/08/17/as-oil-goes-down-bankruptcies-go-up-these-5-frackers-could-be-the-next-to-fall/)

I'm sure they are all thinking:  "What the FRACK is going on"?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 09:41:16 PM
The phrase "Evolve or die" comes to mind....
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 26, 2015, 11:06:41 PM
Bad news for coal....is likely good news for nat gas (as least over the next 5 - 20 years):

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/)

I really hate to see coal die.  It was SOOOO clean.  Didn't disrupt any water resources...didn't pollute the sky (or our lungs)....and the CEO's were so thoughtful to their workers who died of black lung disease....

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 27, 2015, 12:00:15 AM
More "good news" for the fossil fuel industry ;)

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/08/26/coal-in-the-us-on-life-support/)

Great article on several points:

1)  The number of jobs in solar is now swamping the number of jobs in coal (and you only have to put up a solar panel ONE TIME.....instead of "re digging" for coal)

2)   Coal is continuing a long term trend down....

3)   Nat gas will make out VERY WELL over the next decade or so.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 03:42:32 PM
Welcome to Quakelahoma
Quote
As the number of quakes has skyrocketed, so has the number of bigger quakes. There was only one quake in the 4 range in 2012; there were 15 in 2014, and 2015 has already passed that mark. Statistically, for every 10 quakes in the 4 range, there's a 5. And the current chance of a 6 — a strong quake that can inflict extensive damage or injuries in populated areas — in the next year are 1 in 100, Halihan said.
https://news.vice.com/article/welcome-to-quakelahoma
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 07:17:39 PM
New Jersey Is Letting Exxon Pay $225 Million For $8.9 Billion Worth Of Pollution
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/26/3695594/exxon-offers-little-nj-says-ok/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/26/3695594/exxon-offers-little-nj-says-ok/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 10:54:35 PM
So important, will share here, as well as the renewables thread:  :)

Hawaii’s Governor Dumps Oil and Gas in Favor of 100 Percent Renewables
An unlikely partnership between Hawaii’s local government and the US military makes the island a leader in energy policy.
Quote
At the Asia Pacific Resilience Innovation Summit held in Honolulu, Hawaii, this week, Governor David Ige dropped a bombshell. His administration will not use natural gas to replace the state’s petroleum-fueled electricity plants, but will make a full-court press toward 100 percent renewables by 2045. Ige’s decisive and ambitious energy vision is making Hawaii into the world’s most important laboratory for humankind’s fight against climate change. He has, in addition, attracted an unlikely and enthusiastic partner in his embrace of green energy—the US military.

Ige said Monday that LNG (liquefied natural gas) will not save the state money over time, given the plummeting prices of renewables. Moreover, “it is a fossil fuel,” i.e., it emits dangerous greenhouse gases. He explained that local jurisdictions in Hawaii are putting up a fight against natural gas, making permitting difficult. Finally, any money put into retooling electric plants so as to run on gas, he said, is money that would better be invested in the transition to green energy.

Ige, trained as an electrical engineer, is leading his state in the most ambitious clean-energy program in the United States. On June 8, he signed into law a bill calling for Hawaii’s electricity to be entirely generated from renewables in only 30 years. He also directed that the University of Hawaii be net carbon zero in just 20 years.
...
Senator Brian Schatz, a Hawaii Democrat, also addressed the summit, insisting that wind, solar, and other renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels and no longer “alternative.” Rather, they are practical today, because of significant price drops in the cost of photovoltaic panels and of wind turbines. He argued that change comes only when it is demanded. Several years ago, he said, Hawaii set what seemed like unrealistic green energy goals at that time. The senator’s point is valid. By 2015, officials wanted 15 percent of electricity generation to come from renewables. In 2014, it was already 21 percent.
http://www.thenation.com/article/hawaiis-governor-dumps-oil-and-gas-in-favor-of-100-percent-renewables/ (http://www.thenation.com/article/hawaiis-governor-dumps-oil-and-gas-in-favor-of-100-percent-renewables/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on August 27, 2015, 11:21:24 PM
Quote
An unlikely partnership between Hawaii’s local government and the US military makes the island a leader in energy policy.

That IS great news.  The snowball has only started....... It has a LONG way to run. ;D
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2015, 04:38:58 PM
Quote
At least two earthquakes in British Columbia over the past year – including one last week – are among the largest ever caused by natural gas fracking in North America and were both strong enough to force temporary shutdowns of operations.
Fracking-induced quakes in B.C. are among largest on record
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/fracking-induced-quakes-in-bc-are-among-largest-on-record/article26122142/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/fracking-induced-quakes-in-bc-are-among-largest-on-record/article26122142/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2015, 12:58:13 AM
Saudi Arabia hangs on with cheap oil—but for how long?
Quote
But with crude oil selling for around $40 a barrel.... According to the Big Crunch's model, Saudi Arabia could burn through its entire $655 billion currency reserves by the end of 2018 if oil prices don't rise. Researchers at Barclays reached a similar conclusion, based on a scenario analysis of Brent prices at $50 a barrel. "Without fiscal adjustment and assuming no issuance of debt, Saudi Arabia's government deposits and FX reserves would be eroded by 2019," the investment bank wrote.
Even oil priced at $60 a barrel won't prevent Saudi Arabia from draining its reserves, unless it takes actions to cut costs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/saudi-arabia-hangs-on-with-cheap-oil-but-for-how-long.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/saudi-arabia-hangs-on-with-cheap-oil-but-for-how-long.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2015, 06:23:03 PM
In Alaska, Obama Will Be in Middle of Oil and Climate Change Battle
Quote
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Gov. Bill Walker ticks down the things he wants President Obama to see in visiting this vast northern state starting on Monday, and glorious glacial vistas are not at the top of the list.

He would like Mr. Obama to see the people lining up for services at state agencies that have been crippled by billions of dollars in state budget cuts as oil revenues have collapsed. Mr. Walker points out that law enforcement, education and transportation — all crucial in a state with roadless areas larger than Texas — were all severely hit as a fifth of the state budget got redlined out earlier this year, and billions more in cuts loom for next year.
...
As Mr. Obama comes north for what the White House has described as an examination of the effects of climate change, Alaska is battling over oil — its chief source of revenue — and the thorny implications of drilling. Oil prices have fallen to multiyear lows, and production has declined from aging oil fields — with consequences rippling through a state that pays for just about everything with taxes from oil.
...
As Chris Tuck, the minority leader in the State House of Representatives and a Democrat, put it: “I’m just hoping we don’t get blamed for the fact that the glaciers are melting.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/29/us/in-alaska-obama-will-be-in-middle-of-oil-and-climate-change-battle.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/29/us/in-alaska-obama-will-be-in-middle-of-oil-and-climate-change-battle.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2015, 03:18:52 AM
Gasoline prices in the U.S. are back to 2004 levels.
Quote
The decline has been widespread. Average prices are still above $3 in only four states: California and Nevada, as well as Alaska and Hawaii -- two states where everything is always more expensive.

Of the country's 130,000 or so gas stations, more than 5% are selling gas for less than $2 a gallon, AAA says. In South Carolina, the statewide average has fallen below $2 in the past week.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/06/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/06/news/economy/gas-prices/index.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 07, 2015, 08:51:48 PM
Iran Sanctions Seen Lifted in Early 2016 by Nuclear Envoys
Quote
Iran plans to produce 3.8 million to 3.9 million barrels of oil a day by March, with output rising by 500,000 barrels a day soon after sanctions are lifted and by 1 million barrels within the following five months, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in a Sept. 2 interview. It’s currently producing 2.8 million barrels a day, its highest level in three years, and is exporting more than 1 million barrels a day, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-in-early-2016-by-nuclear-envoys (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-in-early-2016-by-nuclear-envoys)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 03:57:19 PM
Oil industry braces for Obama’s final climate push
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/252820-oil-industry-braces-for-obamas-final-climate-push (http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/252820-oil-industry-braces-for-obamas-final-climate-push)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 04:06:37 PM
Why the U.S. Gets the Most Out of Cheap Oil
Quote
Cheap oil should be good economic medicine for almost anybody who isn't trying to sell the stuff. Yet only one country has been able to take full advantage of the 14-month collapse in the price of crude: the U.S.

A big part of the reason was the success of the Federal Reserve at repairing the country's credit after the financial crisis. That let corporations reduce their debt to the lowest levels in decades while the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent from 10 percent. Consequently, American producers and consumers were in a strong position to enjoy the fruits of their labors with oil in retreat.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-the-u-s-gets-the-most-out-of-cheap-oil (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-04/why-the-u-s-gets-the-most-out-of-cheap-oil)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2015, 09:23:03 PM
U.K. North Sea Oil Industry Warns Investment May Fall 80% to 2017
Quote
Investment in U.K. North Sea oil and gas projects could drop as much as 80 percent by 2017 as the collapse in crude prices forces the industry to cut back.
...
About 140 fields will stop producing over the next five years as low oil prices accelerate decommissioning efforts in the region, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said in a report. Five fields have already been retired earlier than expected this year and not even a rebound of prices to $85 a barrel would prevent further closures, it said.

The Edinburgh-based energy consultant expects 38 new fields will come online over the same period and another 17 new projects to be approved. Spending on decommissioning old fields will increase by over 50 percent to 2019 and overtake spending on the development of new fields the same year, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/u-k-north-sea-oil-industry-warns-investment-may-fall-80-to-17 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/u-k-north-sea-oil-industry-warns-investment-may-fall-80-to-17)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 03:24:32 AM
Gas reduction dropped from California climate change bill
Quote
A provision calling for a 50% cut in petroleum use by 2030 will be dropped from legislation that includes the governor’s environmental goals, removing what was the main political obstacle to pass the bill before the Legislature’s session ends Friday.

“Oil has won the skirmish. But they've lost the bigger battle. Because I am more determined than ever," the governor said.
http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-ln-gasoline-reduction-dropped-from-climate-change-bill-20150909-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-ln-gasoline-reduction-dropped-from-climate-change-bill-20150909-story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 08:08:53 PM
Oil Jobs Exit Norway as Era of Richest Rewards Peters Out
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/norway-risks-brain-drain-as-petroleum-industry-hemorrhages-jobs (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/norway-risks-brain-drain-as-petroleum-industry-hemorrhages-jobs)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 10:06:43 PM
300 Businesses Oppose Drilling In The Atlantic: ‘It’s A Reckless Gamble’
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/10/3700223/businesses-against-atlantic-drilling/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/10/3700223/businesses-against-atlantic-drilling/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 11, 2015, 02:29:05 PM
This is the equivalent of the tobacco companies getting into the health food business:

http://news.yahoo.com/kuwait-signs-385-mn-solar-energy-project-113048478.html (http://news.yahoo.com/kuwait-signs-385-mn-solar-energy-project-113048478.html)

You know when THAT happens....that the gig is up.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on September 11, 2015, 04:15:49 PM
Goldman Sachs jolted the commodities market by suggesting that crude oil prices could temporarily drop as low as $20 per barrel in 2016.  It looks like renewables will have some price competition for some years to come:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/09/11/oil-could-plunge-20-goldman-sachs-says/72054790/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/09/11/oil-could-plunge-20-goldman-sachs-says/72054790/)

Extract: ""Although oil prices have revisited the lows of last winter, this time both financial and fundamental metrics are much weaker," Goldman said in the report. "Forward demand expectations are lower as the emerging market economic outlook continues to deteriorate."
To be sure, Goldman is not projecting a drop to $20 — a worst-case it said would be fleeting if it's reached. Goldman's official projection for 2016 WTI prices is $45, down from a previous forecast of $57. Goldman's 2017 forecast stayed at $60.
Still, the suggestion that oil could fall to $20 in a doomsday scenario jolted the energy markets as investors come to grips with the depth of the commodity's price decline."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 11, 2015, 04:23:38 PM
Quote
Goldman Sachs jolted the commodities market by suggesting that crude oil prices could temporarily drop as low as $20 per barrel in 2016.

I "think" the oil market has the potential to get into the HIGH 20's (temporarily).  But just an FYI on Goldman Sachs:  They are every bit as honest as the tobacco industry....and the oil and gas industry.  In fact....they are a good CONTRARIAN indicator.  If they are saying buy....I would sell, and vice versa.

We'll see how much oil comes onto the market via Iran....and continued US production.  Any "dip" into the $20's...would be a QUICK dip initially....and would set up a multi month (12 - 24 months???) rally.

   
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on September 11, 2015, 08:13:43 PM
In 1986 the Saudi's, under Regan's direction, pumped oil until Brent Sweet was selling for <$10.00. They broke the USSR, then got back within OPEC's production limits and prices slowly went back up.


$10.00 in 1996 is worth $21.48 today. Any possibility that the Saudis, this time under Obama's direction are trying to again bust Russia?


Russia today is in much better financial shape than the USSR was in '86. Another problem might be that fracking & tar sands oil needs much higher prices than the drilling being done in N. America in the 80's. Saudi Arabia may,(even with their present war against Yemen), be able to stay afloat for a long time selling oil in the $20's, but Canada, US frackers, even Mexico can't afford to play along for very long.


Repeating a brilliant move from 30 years ago might not be brilliant this time 'round.


Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 11, 2015, 08:54:20 PM
Quote
Saudi Arabia may,(even with their present war against Yemen), be able to stay afloat for a long time selling oil in the $20's, but Canada, US frackers, even Mexico can't afford to play along for very long.

Frackers are in BIG doo doo.  They are caught between a rock and hard place.  Here is just one of many articles about this.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5974a3ce-52e0-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html#axzz3lSPmwijQ (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5974a3ce-52e0-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html#axzz3lSPmwijQ)

The Saudi's....after years of supporting the price of oil by cutting back their own production....are NOT playing that game this time.  This time....they are letting the oil price drop, and the LOWEST COST PRODUCER WINS....while many of the "marginal players" go to bankruptcy court.

Going to be an interesting 12 months or so.  Meanwhile.....alternative energy keeps dropping its price...and keeps "eating away" at the fringes of oil and gas.  And in addition.....there are a boatload of other companies that are "oil and gas replacements" for some of the niche markets (companies that make "oil" products out of algae).

Oil and gas are on the long road to hell.  And it is NOT going to be pretty for them in future years.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 07:39:51 PM
Bribes, Debt, $100 Billion Lost: Nigeria Can't Keep the Power On
Quote
Even after the sales, bribery of electricity workers by some diesel generator and fuel suppliers to organize household and business blackouts in order to boost sales is continuing. Diesel generation costs 30 cents to 50 cents per kilowatt-hour, compared with the average grid tariff of 13 cents, according to the World Bank. Timothy Oyedeji, a spokesman for the Power Ministry, didn’t answer two calls and a text message seeking comment.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/bribes-debt-100-billion-lost-nigeria-can-t-keep-the-power-on (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-11/bribes-debt-100-billion-lost-nigeria-can-t-keep-the-power-on)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 09:39:52 PM
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil
Quote
OPEC estimates that in the second quarter, global oil output exceeded demand by 2.87 million barrels a day, and it expects U.S. output to rise almost 1 million barrels a day this year and another 320,000 barrels a day in 2016. The International Energy Agency expects falling production in Russia to hold the non-OPEC output increase to 1.1 million barrels a day compared with 2.4 million barrels last year. The IEA looks for global demand to rise 1.6 million barrels a day this year and 1.4 million in 2016.

Still, worldwide supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels a day next year. And the demand projections by IEA and even lower forecasts by OPEC do not factor in slower growth in China and other emerging markets, the nosedive in Chinese stocks, and the devaluation of the yuan....
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 11:53:51 PM
Amended SB 350 passes California legislature, awaits governor's signature.

Half Of California’s Electricity Will Come From Renewable Energy In 15 Years
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/12/3700981/california-landmark-climate-bill/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/12/3700981/california-landmark-climate-bill/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on September 13, 2015, 12:53:55 AM
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to $80 Oil
Quote
OPEC estimates that in the second quarter, global oil output exceeded demand by 2.87 million barrels a day, and it expects U.S. output to rise almost 1 million barrels a day this year and another 320,000 barrels a day in 2016. The International Energy Agency expects falling production in Russia to hold the non-OPEC output increase to 1.1 million barrels a day compared with 2.4 million barrels last year. The IEA looks for global demand to rise 1.6 million barrels a day this year and 1.4 million in 2016.

Still, worldwide supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels a day next year. And the demand projections by IEA and even lower forecasts by OPEC do not factor in slower growth in China and other emerging markets, the nosedive in Chinese stocks, and the devaluation of the yuan....
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-20/optimists-were-wrong-to-predict-oil-prices-would-soon-rise-again)


The article does not explain why they expect a slowdown in Russian oil. While I fully agree that oil still has a long down period ahead, I expect Russia's continued pumping to be part of the problem as opposed to part of the solution.
Russia may not have the debt service problems that many western producers face, but the depreciated Ruble allows them to pump profitably while competitors bleed more with every barrel extracted. Others are pumping because debt payment demands it. Russia pumps because expenses are paid in rubles while exported product is paid for in dollars. Why would Russia pump less in such circumstances?
Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2015, 09:32:12 PM
I find lots of general comments about lowered Russian oil production tied to their economic slowdown, but here's this via Reuters:
Quote
Russia, facing a perfect storm of collapsing prices, international sanctions and currency depreciation, will likely emerge as the industry's top loser,"  [IEA] said, forecasting production looked set to contract by 560,000 bpd to 10.4 million bpd from 2014 to 2020.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0LE02O20150210 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-iea-oil-idUSKBN0LE02O20150210)

Also:  http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09/11/world/europe/ap-eu-global-energy.html (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/09/11/world/europe/ap-eu-global-energy.html)

And this: 
Quote
Given the impact of sanctions, low prices and the absence of any large projects expected to come on-line, oil production in Russia will drop in 2015 by 70,000 barrels a day, a report from OPEC projects.
http://barentsobserver.com/en/energy/2015/02/russian-oil-production-drop-70000-barrels-day-2015-opec-11-02 (http://barentsobserver.com/en/energy/2015/02/russian-oil-production-drop-70000-barrels-day-2015-opec-11-02)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 13, 2015, 09:42:18 PM
Quote
Why would Russia pump less in such circumstances?

I don't think the Russians are doing so INTENTIONALLY.  Remember....there are sanctions against Russia because of their behavior in the Ukraine.  Those sanctions are hitting their oil and gas business.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/11/us-russia-rosneft-kara-sea-idUSKBN0OR16H20150611 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/11/us-russia-rosneft-kara-sea-idUSKBN0OR16H20150611)

I think Russia is likely "pumping balls to the walls" to the extent they can.  But as long as sanctions are in place.....they are held back by technology and investment from the west.

And if Russia keeps playing around in Syria....which I expect them to do (Putin's ego knows no bounds).....that will not help the situation.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2015, 04:57:25 PM
Reference #621 above...

Consumer Watchdog Asks California Attorney General and US Attorneys to Investigate Oil Industry for Mail Fraud in Effort to Defeat Climate Change Legislation
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu (http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on September 14, 2015, 06:38:37 PM
Reference #621 above...

Consumer Watchdog Asks California Attorney General and US Attorneys to Investigate Oil Industry for Mail Fraud in Effort to Defeat Climate Change Legislation
http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu (http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/newsrelease/consumer-watchdog-asks-california-attorney-general-and-us-attorneys-investigate-oil-indu)

Mail fraud
Wondered what the penalty might be considering what was suggested in John Grisham's 'The Firm'.

Quote
3. Federal criminal penalties for mail fraud / postal fraud in California

Because mail fraud / postal fraud is a federal crime, the penalties may include time spent in federal prison (not the California state prison system).

Mail fraud is punishable with up to twenty (20) years in prison, a fine, or both. If the fraud involves a federal disaster or a financial institution (like a national bank), then the maximum sentence increases to thirty (30) years in prison.

Only 'may', no minimum term for each instance. Looks like climate change would not qualify as a federal disaster either even though we may feel that it should. Guess I am not too surprised that novel & film exaggerated the penalties involved. Lawyers likely would be held to higher standard.

I doubt this case would be considered all that serious. Even assuming that it can be proved it was being deliberately deceiving, the aim was lobbying for beneficial laws with potential benefits several years into the future. Judge, jury etc may well be persuaded that politicians are expected to be able to identify profit motivated lobbying and weigh this accordingly. So was there a deceitful gain/intended gain and was it much? Would expect this to limit any penalties that might be imposed even if I would like to see it being judged harshly.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 15, 2015, 11:55:47 PM
Reference #621 above...

Quote
In a day-after post on the NRDC Switchboard blog, Max Baumhefner of the Natural Resources Defense Council writes that amidst all the sturm und drang of high-dollar oil lobbying, the revised third part of SB 350 has been largely overlooked.

News coverage of the bill's passage "focused on the oil companies' unsightly lobbying to remove a petroleum reduction goal from the bill," he writes.

But "few have noticed the provisions of Senator Kevin de León's legislation that make replacing oil as the dominant transportation fuel a core mission of the electric industry."

That goal allows "Californians to 'fill up' at home on cleaner electricity that's the cost equivalent of dollar-a-gallon gas."

The key is that "Senator de León's bill also establishes that a 'principal goal' of electric utility 'resource planning and investment' is 'to improve the environment and to encourage the diversity of energy resources through improvements in energy efficiency, development of renewable energy resources, and widespread transportation electrification."

And widespread deployment of electric vehicles is expected to help with grid stabilization, making it less expensive for utilities to meet the goal of 50 percent renewable electricity in just 15 years.

It will also significantly cut the cost of commuting for Californians--that equivalent of dollar-a-gallon gasoline--giving them more money to spend on other things.

So while the 50-percent petroleum reduction goal is not part of the law, the goal of electrifying California's transportation is now official policy.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099999_ca-climate-change-bill-passed-electric-utilities-to-target-oil-industry (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099999_ca-climate-change-bill-passed-electric-utilities-to-target-oil-industry)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on September 16, 2015, 01:53:45 AM
As the worlds leading oil producer/exporter Russia is certainly being hurt by today's low crude prices.
Russia's advantages are that they have very little debt compared to most producing countries and their raw materials & labor are priced in Rubles, which have been depreciated to roughly match oil prices.
Russian Arctic oil is estimated to cost as much as $120.00/bbl, while onshore oil production costs $18.00. I don't expect much (if any) Arctic oil to be pumped into today's market.


http://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country (http://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country)


At $18.00/bbl, the present Brent prices of >$48 are attractive & I assume that Russia will pump as much into the market as it possibly can. China can & will provide financing should Russia require it, but thus far Russia has been buying large amounts of gold on a ongoing basis, not the actions of a country overly worried about their balance sheet.


Russia's very low debt ratio & the backing of China leave it free of the concerns that many other producing nations face. Canadian tar sands are stuck between selling prices well below production cost & bills in American dollars that must be paid. They must keep pumping, even at a loss, just to keep the doors open. When prices normalize their debt load will be crippling. The Canadia Loonie, now trading at ~$0.75 doesn't have the same effect as the low Ruble. Canada's manufacturing sector had been gutted & would require huge financing, (in American dollars), to get back of it's feet. Canada has been reduced to being a source for raw materials, and with the global slowdown, raw materials are a glut on the market.


Frackers in the States may be in even worse shape since they may run out of oil even while they need to keep pumping at a loss. Without financing to drill additional wells & without oil being produced by existing wells, the future looks bleak. Financing costs will be ridiculous, but then why would anyone want to lend into that sector?


The Saudi's are borrowing money to finance their war as well as their domestic programs. Assuming that Saudi wells are bottomless, at some point they can throttle back on production, prices rise, debts are paid, and all is well. If the wells are not bottomless, if their war drags on, or if prices don't rebound, problems will arise.
The fact that they are borrowing indicates that they can't afford to continue pumping at these prices forever. Their domestic bills must be paid, so war may be the only optional expense that can be throttled back.


Russia has accepted that the sanctions will be in place for the foreseeable future and are working around them as best they can. Their counter-sanction against European food is building domestic production while keeping food inflation somewhat in check. Fighting against ISIS, whether in Syria or elsewhere, should be seen as a positive by the West, and is unlikely to draw further sanctions.


 Russian oil and gas exports to Europe are as important to Europe as they are to Russia. Russians can more easily do without new BMWs than Germany can do without cheap Russian gas. Noise is made about the export and import of LNG, but LNG is ~300% more expensive than piped gas & Europe won't willingly pay the difference.


I'm convinced that American neo-cons saw Russia and Europe as two players that were gaining influence. By playing a little "Why don't you and he fight?", the US thought that they would then be able to concentrate on their real problem which is the growth of China.


Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2015, 02:06:42 AM
Quote
Russian oil and gas exports to Europe are as important to Europe as they are to Russia. Russians can more easily do without new BMWs than Germany can do without cheap Russian gas.

The first of several LNG export terminals will come on-line in 2016 in the US.  That gas will be exported to Europe most likely.  That will crimp the Russians further......

And all is not as rosey as the Russians would like, relative to their natural gas deals with China as noted in the article below:

http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-natural-gas-plans/ri9262 (http://russia-insider.com/en/russias-natural-gas-plans/ri9262)

Interesting times....
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on September 16, 2015, 06:41:06 AM
Buddy

I think I agree with everything your linked article says, except for the spin.

IIRC Russia wanted gas linked to oil prices (same way they price their sales to Europe), while China was bargaining for a fixed price (much easier to plan ahead). When, as your article notes, both sides were playing everything very close to the vest after the deal was reached, most believed that Russia had folded because of the sanctions and that China had got a low fixed price. It appears, according to your article, that this is not true.

While I don't believe oil prices can reclaim their previous heights, they will trend higher than they are now, otherwise the damage to Canada, Big Oil and Western producers would be huge. When oil recovers, so will gas. Russia will be fine as long as Putin can avoid major conflicts.
 
Turkey was/is the weak link in bringing Russian gas to Southern Europe, but Nord Stream & it's expansion saves Germany from the vagaries of Ukrainian politics. If the expansion is completed Germany will be in position to act as middle man for most of the rest of Europe. Germany often gets what it wants in Europe, especially when so many other players are financially drained.

If Russia can do anything to injure ISIS, and ameliorate the flow of refugees from Syria, Europe might just  be grateful enough to back down on some of the sanctions, although as I'd mentioned earlier this is not something Putin or Lavrov are expecting or working towards.

The one thing I've noticed from the beginning of the Ukraine affair is how Putin has acted as though someone, at some time, will be reading the transcript and passing judgment. Kiev, Washington and NATO all act as if short term gain is all that matters and they leave themselves open to criticism should the situation not resolve itself with their side winning unconditionally.

LNG is no substitute for piped gas, it simply costs too much to liquefy & reconstitute. What success Europe's enjoys as a manufacturing center is & was dependent on their access to cheap, piped, Russian gas. Germany and France are aware of this and won't be bullied into paying for LNG, at least this is Russia's hope. The Canadian and Australian LNG hubs have already been written off. China was to have been the customer for both & that market simply doesn't exist. If Japan prefers to continue importing from the West, it will only hurt their bottom line.

Terry
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on September 16, 2015, 08:58:44 AM
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/09/14/how-our-energy-problem-leads-to-a-debt-collapse-problem/ (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/09/14/how-our-energy-problem-leads-to-a-debt-collapse-problem/)

The information she presents in compelling and it delves into why we could be facing these problems perhaps quite soon, in a previous post, she says that it could be a year or perhaps six months: http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/08/26/deflationary-collapse-ahead/ (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/08/26/deflationary-collapse-ahead/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2015, 02:57:08 PM
Quote
how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

I am of the belief.......that fossil fuels are toast in the LONG RUN.  And I also believe that "long run"...will NOT be as long as most believe.  In other words....the next TWO DECADES will show AMAZING PROGRESS and movement towards renewables.  That does NOT MEAN that we won't have fossil fuels for many decades (maybe 4....5......6....?).  But the movement TOWARDS an end to fossil fuels will be much swifter than most believe. 

Those countries....like Russia....are in BIG TROUBLE....because they are SO reliant upon EXPORTING of fossil fuels.  A country like Germany (who used to be a big importer of fossil fuels), that is moving QUICKLY to renewables is in GREAT SHAPE....and getting better all the time.

I think the thing that most "gloom and doomers" are not seeing relative to the "end of fossil fuels"......is that the decrease in energy costs that we are having now BENEFITS ALL COMPANIES NOT IN THE FOSSIL FUEL BUSINESS (and electric utilities....because they are likely toast in the long run as well).

Think of it as all companies getting a PERMANENT TAX BREAK.  So while those who are tied to fossil fuels....and that includes STATES like West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota....etc will likely be hit harder in coming years/decade by the movement away from fossil fuels, everyone else will gain BIG TIME.

Price DECREASES in one sector of the economy....even a LARGE SECTOR like energy....does NOT mean we will suffer through deflation.  Deflation is the expectation that GENERAL COSTS will continue to drop in the future....so consumers keep putting off purchases because they believe the costs will continue to drop.  I don't see that happening in the GENERAL ECONOMY.  The costs in the ENERGY SECTOR will continue drop OVER TIME (20 - 50 years from now I expect energy costs to be far less than today)....but that drop in energy cost will benefit everyone EXCEPT the fossil fuel companies.

Those companies that make pipe and parts for drilling.....will give way to companies making parts for solar, wind, and wave energy.  There are NOW many more jobs in the solar industry than there are in the coal industry in the US.  That "transition" will continue....and likely speed up.

With costs decreasing for energy....that will give almost everyone else money to spend on other things.

   
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on September 16, 2015, 03:20:13 PM
Quote
how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.

I am of the belief.......that fossil fuels are toast in the LONG RUN.  And I also believe that "long run"...will NOT be as long as most believe.  In other words....the next TWO DECADES will show AMAZING PROGRESS and movement towards renewables.  That does NOT MEAN that we won't have fossil fuels for many decades (maybe 4....5......6....?).  But the movement TOWARDS an end to fossil fuels will be much swifter than most believe. 

Those countries....like Russia....are in BIG TROUBLE....because they are SO reliant upon EXPORTING of fossil fuels.  A country like Germany (who used to be a big importer of fossil fuels), that is moving QUICKLY to renewables is in GREAT SHAPE....and getting better all the time.

I think the thing that most "gloom and doomers" are not seeing relative to the "end of fossil fuels"......is that the decrease in energy costs that we are having now BENEFITS ALL COMPANIES NOT IN THE FOSSIL FUEL BUSINESS (and electric utilities....because they are likely toast in the long run as well).

Think of it as all companies getting a PERMANENT TAX BREAK.  So while those who are tied to fossil fuels....and that includes STATES like West Virginia, Kentucky, North Dakota....etc will likely be hit harder in coming years/decade by the movement away from fossil fuels, everyone else will gain BIG TIME.

Price DECREASES in one sector of the economy....even a LARGE SECTOR like energy....does NOT mean we will suffer through deflation.  Deflation is the expectation that GENERAL COSTS will continue to drop in the future....so consumers keep putting off purchases because they believe the costs will continue to drop.  I don't see that happening in the GENERAL ECONOMY.  The costs in the ENERGY SECTOR will continue drop OVER TIME (20 - 50 years from now I expect energy costs to be far less than today)....but that drop in energy cost will benefit everyone EXCEPT the fossil fuel companies.

Those companies that make pipe and parts for drilling.....will give way to companies making parts for solar, wind, and wave energy.  There are NOW many more jobs in the solar industry than there are in the coal industry in the US.  That "transition" will continue....and likely speed up.

With costs decreasing for energy....that will give almost everyone else money to spend on other things.

   

Good points, but solar and other renewables need coal and oil in order to advance. With more time, yes, renewables would outweigh fossil fuels, but there is not enough time as Gail notes, the cost of extracting coal and oil will become too powerful, thus, renewable energy will become irrelevant, even in the short term.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2015, 03:24:42 PM
Here's a short article titled:  "The oil age will end before the well runs dry."

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T (http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T)

Here is the last paragraph:

"The Oil Age is slated to end by the year 2035, but the reserves will last another century. If the oil-exporting countries do not wish to see their economies utterly destroyed, they must diversify, invest in human capital, and make the private sector much more productive. The party is coming to an end – and these countries must be prepared."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on September 16, 2015, 03:38:01 PM
Here's a short article titled:  "The oil age will end before the well runs dry."

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T (http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-age-will-end-before-well-runs-dry-2015-9?r=UK&IR=T)

Here is the last paragraph:

"The Oil Age is slated to end by the year 2035, but the reserves will last another century. If the oil-exporting countries do not wish to see their economies utterly destroyed, they must diversify, invest in human capital, and make the private sector much more productive. The party is coming to an end – and these countries must be prepared."

Good article, however I will counter that by saying that Gail has a better track record in terms of making predictions regarding the global economy.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 03:38:37 PM
An eight-month investigation by InsideClimate News reveals Exxon spent millions in the 1970's and 1980’s confirming the environmental threat posed by the oil industry -- then turned its efforts to promoting climate change denial.

Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago
Top executives were warned of possible catastrophe from greenhouse effect, then led efforts to block solutions.
Quote
At a meeting in Exxon Corporation's headquarters, a senior company scientist named James F. Black addressed an audience of powerful oilmen. Speaking without a text as he flipped through detailed slides, Black delivered a sobering message: carbon dioxide from the world's use of fossil fuels would warm the planet and could eventually endanger humanity.
...
His presentations reflected uncertainty running through scientific circles about the details of climate change, such as the role the oceans played in absorbing emissions. Still, Black estimated quick action was needed. "Present thinking," he wrote in the 1978 summary, "holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical."

Exxon responded swiftly. Within months the company launched its own extraordinary research into carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and its impact on the earth. Exxon's ambitious program included both empirical CO2 sampling and rigorous climate modeling. It assembled a brain trust that would spend more than a decade deepening the company's understanding of an environmental problem that posed an existential threat to the oil business.

Then, toward the end of the 1980s, Exxon curtailed its carbon dioxide research. In the decades that followed, Exxon worked instead at the forefront of climate denial. It put its muscle behind efforts to manufacture doubt about the reality of global warming its own scientists had once confirmed. It lobbied to block federal and international action to control greenhouse gas emissions. It helped to erect a vast edifice of misinformation that stands to this day.

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 16, 2015, 04:03:20 PM
One other thing to consider regarding the "changing energy market".....is that it will (I believe) also enable agriculture costs to drop.

You already have seen over the last 5 years....a movement to move agriculture closer to the end user.  Also....there are many "indoor farms" (using buildings to grow hydroponic vegetables...especially things like "lettuce, basil, tomato's, etc).  So if energy costs continue to be pushed down....that makes "24 x 7" growing that much cheaper.

A LOT of good things coming in the years ahead.....and especially in the next decade.

It's funny.....at a time when people are so inundated with "negative crap" from cable tv (both the left and the right.....but more so from FOX Lies)....there are so many good things happening as well.

What is everyone going to be bitching about next fall when the unemployment rate is near 4% in the US.....gasoline costs are down.....and energy/electricity costs are continuing to drop?

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 04:42:30 PM
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 16, 2015, 04:55:50 PM
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789

I think Gail Tverberg hasn't the foggiest understanding of macroeconomics.  If oil prices drop below cost of extraction, there will simply be less extraction until prices rise.  Such a dynamic equilibrium simply won't result a deflationary spiral.  Deflationary spirals only happen when fiscal and monetary policy are mismanaged.  She seems to be a moderately successful doomsayer, but I wouldn't bet on her ability to pass an Econ 101 final exam.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 09:52:30 PM
White House opposes GOP bill to lift oil export ban
Quote
The White House said Sept. 15, it opposes a House Republican bill to lift the four-decade-old ban on crude oil exports.

White House press secretary Josh Earnest took a shot at McCarthy and other Republicans pushing to end the oil export ban, which was imposed in the 1970s as the United States responded to an Arab oil embargo that sparked inflation and prompted long lines at gas stations. “It is quite clear what Leader McCarthy’s priorities are, and the priorities of his party in Congress: to cozy up to oil interests and to pursue policies and to make policy announcements that are clearly in their interests,” said Earnest.
...
Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass., said it makes no sense to export U.S. oil when the nation still imports millions of barrels of oil a day and consumers are saving at the pump because of lower oil prices worldwide.

“Low gas prices are a massive economic stimulus for American consumers and our economy,” Markey said. “Oil companies want to lift the export ban in order to tip consumers upside down and shake money out of their pockets.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/white-house-opposes-gop-bill-to-lift-oil-export-ban/2015/09/15/5633cd46-5bf2-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/white-house-opposes-gop-bill-to-lift-oil-export-ban/2015/09/15/5633cd46-5bf2-11e5-8475-781cc9851652_story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 10:09:43 PM
After four decades, the U.S. might lift its ban on oil exports. Here’s what you need to know
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/16/after-four-decades-the-u-s-might-lift-its-ban-on-oil-exports-heres-what-you-need-to-know/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/16/after-four-decades-the-u-s-might-lift-its-ban-on-oil-exports-heres-what-you-need-to-know/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 06:43:48 PM
U.S. Shale Drillers Are Drowning in Debt
Quote
As much as 400,000 barrels a day of oil production is at risk as U.S. shale companies like Samson Resources Co. run out of money and are forced to slow drilling.

Total debt for half of the companies in a Bloomberg index of more than 60 producers has risen to a level that represents 40 percent of their enterprise value. It’s a sign of distress that shows equity values falling in the face of oil’s crash, said Rob Thummel, a managing director and portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC who helps manage $15.6 billion.
...
As companies run low on cash, they may be forced to idle drilling rigs, confront bankruptcy or seek more expensive financing and sell assets. In the past year, U.S. oil producers used 83 percent of their operating cash flow to pay for debt service, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A year ago, it was less than 60 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/an-oklahoma-of-oil-at-risk-as-debt-shackles-u-s-shale-drillers (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/an-oklahoma-of-oil-at-risk-as-debt-shackles-u-s-shale-drillers)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 06:50:33 PM
China is softening the global oil surplus by buying cheap oil to stock up its reserves. But that won't last long.

Quote
By mopping up some of the surplus, China encourages a gentler scenario in which the “financial stress” of $40 oil gradually causes highly indebted shale producers to curb production, Currie said. “You reduce the likelihood of a scenario where the market only balances when prices collapse below production costs, at about $20 a barrel,”  he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/even-a-slowing-china-is-oil-s-best-defense-against-deeper-slump (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/even-a-slowing-china-is-oil-s-best-defense-against-deeper-slump)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2015, 06:28:34 PM
The boom market in sand for fracking, and its transport, has ended in Wisconsin.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/oil-bust-claims-unusual-american-victim-far-away-from-shale-rigs (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/oil-bust-claims-unusual-american-victim-far-away-from-shale-rigs)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on September 23, 2015, 10:13:38 PM
Hey, since there is a discussion here on oil and renewables tend to get mentioned here as well, I thought I would put an article by Gail Tverberg here for you guys to ponder as she talks about how the energy problems that we face presently will lead to a deflationary collapse, where low oil prices outweigh the profitability of extracting oil, thus leading to the economy contracting and collapsing altogether, taking society with it.
...

A couple thoughts:

I think there is too much pent up demand -- in the still-recovering US economy, and all the countries undergoing "austerity" regimes -- for deflation to take hold:  people will take the money saved on gas, and purchase things they've needed/wanted to buy for a while.

And I believe the article fails to consider the full effect of energy efficiency gains -- energy not needed.  From the Efficiency thread:
Quote
Americans’ energy-conservation efforts, from switching bulbs to upgrading washing machines and air conditioners, have done more to reduce carbon emissions than the increased use of solar, wind and natural gas, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd.  Efficiency can help meet half of the emissions cuts sought under President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1145.msg60789.html#msg60789

I think Gail Tverberg hasn't the foggiest understanding of macroeconomics.  If oil prices drop below cost of extraction, there will simply be less extraction until prices rise.  Such a dynamic equilibrium simply won't result a deflationary spiral.  Deflationary spirals only happen when fiscal and monetary policy are mismanaged.  She seems to be a moderately successful doomsayer, but I wouldn't bet on her ability to pass an Econ 101 final exam.

The debt that some companies are under is also an issue with regards the low cost and production cutbacks are not a good thing if it puts the companies extracting and refining the oil at risk of bankruptcy, thus in essence, the low oil prices cannot continue because it will not be profitable to extract oil, and renewables can only be an alternative if they did not require a lot of fossil fuels to not only manufacture, but also maintain. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2015, 04:25:41 AM
Oil closed below $45/barrel today.

Oil price: will $1.5 trillion of project cuts end slump?
Quote
"Just half a dozen new projects will be approved this year and 10 or 11 in 2016," the report states, compared with an annual average of 50 to 60. North American production in particular will be hit, as flexible shale drilling has "reacted fastest to the market collapse". That suggests Opec has scored a victory of sorts by maintaining its own output to retain market share.
Quote
"People don't drive to work twice because it's more economical to do so."
http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-three-reasons-it-is-not-recovering (http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-three-reasons-it-is-not-recovering)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2015, 05:08:23 PM
Ref #621 and 627 above....

California air regulators readopt fuel standard to fight climate change
Quote
California air quality officials on Friday approved updates to a key climate change rule that will force reductions in carbon pollution from gasoline and diesel fuel over the next five years.

The vote Friday by the Air Resources Board to readopt its low-carbon fuel standard will require California to achieve at least a 10% cut in the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2020.

The move is one indication of how California officials will use existing regulations, rather than new laws, to continue their climate change efforts after Gov. Jerry Brown and Democratic lawmakers were forced this month to drop legislative proposals to cut petroleum use and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
...
The market-based program imposes a gradually declining cap on the amount of carbon generated from "well to wheel," including oil extraction, fuel production and distribution. Companies that produce gasoline, diesel and other fuels must demonstrate each year that they have met carbon-reduction targets, either directly or by purchasing credits from clean-fuel producers that surpass those standards.
http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-0925-carbon-fuels-20150925-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/science/la-me-0925-carbon-fuels-20150925-story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 01:22:04 AM
You have an oil glut, and onshore storage is getting full.  What do you do?  Store it offshore, in supertankers, of course!  :o

Oil Traders May Look to the Sea for Profit Amid Price Collapse
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/oil-traders-may-look-to-the-sea-for-profit-amid-price-collapse (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/oil-traders-may-look-to-the-sea-for-profit-amid-price-collapse)

(I'm still waiting for companies to switch to storing it back underground....  ::))
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on September 29, 2015, 03:20:26 AM
Quote
You have an oil glut, and onshore storage is getting full.  What do you do?  Store it offshore, in supertankers, of course!  :o

That could lead to a SHORT TERM spike DOWN once the tankers are full.  'Cause once those baby's are full.....there ain't no other place to store it.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 05:28:43 PM
The era of big oil mega-projects in Canadian oil sands may be over.

Canadian Oil Trapped Without More Pipeline Capacity
Quote
With falling investment and the potential that oil prices stay “lower for longer,” the “era of big megaprojects” in Canada’s oil sands could be over, says Peter Tertzakian of ARC Financial. “The oil sands has to compete for capital with all the other types of oil projects that are out there. It has to morph into something cleaner, smaller in size and less capital intensive. It’s definitely possible to do, but the old paradigm of 4,000-man camps and long construction periods is over,” Tertzakian told Alberta Oil Magazine this month. And the problem isn’t just that oil companies are being more cautious by deferring spending on projects. Institutional investors are also balking at putting money up for oil sands projects. “There’s zero interest in investing in the space right now,” Tertzakian said.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Canadian-Oil-Trapped-Without-More-Pipeline-Capacity.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Canadian-Oil-Trapped-Without-More-Pipeline-Capacity.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2015, 01:48:56 AM
EBRD Approves $300 Million Loan for Ukraine Winter Gas
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/ebrd-approves-300-million-loan-for-ukraine-winter-gas-purchase (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/ebrd-approves-300-million-loan-for-ukraine-winter-gas-purchase)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 07:28:45 PM
The Real Estate Crisis in North Dakota's Man Camps
Quote
After struggling to house thousands of migrant roughnecks during the boom, the state faces a new real-estate crisis: The frenzied drilling that made it No. 1 in personal-income growth and job creation for five consecutive years hasn’t lasted long enough to support the oil-fueled building explosion.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/man-camp-exodus-spurs-real-estate-crisis-across-u-s-shale-towns (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/man-camp-exodus-spurs-real-estate-crisis-across-u-s-shale-towns)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: TerryM on October 04, 2015, 04:34:09 PM
EBRD Approves $300 Million Loan for Ukraine Winter Gas
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/ebrd-approves-300-million-loan-for-ukraine-winter-gas-purchase (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/ebrd-approves-300-million-loan-for-ukraine-winter-gas-purchase)

Ukraine was found in default on 10/02
ISDA DC has agreed that Ukraine has officially failed to pay credit (http://dc.isda.org/documents/2015/10/emea-dc-decision-02102015-2.pdf) and scheduled debt auctions.
The auctions begin 10/06. This will present serious difficulties to those offering or receiving loans.

Under at least my radar was the Egyptian offshore discovery of the largest gas field in the Mediterranean.
http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-enis-egypt-gas-find-limits-israels-export-options-1001065749 (http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-enis-egypt-gas-find-limits-israels-export-options-1001065749)

The Zohr find will change gas policy, at least in the near regions. Syria may not be as important as a gas corridor for Israeli Leviathan gas since most Moslem countries may prefer Egyptian gas when given a choice. If gas transport through Syria is no longer a consideration, is it possible that Assad could live to a ripe old age.

Germany & most of Western Europe seem to prefer cheap piped gas from Russia, as opposed to the much more expensive liquefied product from other sources. This apparently has left LNG as a glut on the market, with Shell notably giving no value to whatever gas was found in the Arctic.

If Ukraine loses her transit fees as seems a given at this point & having now defaulted on her outstanding loans, what does her future hold. Perhaps keeping their children huddled in basements while ours attend kindergarten was not a great domestic policy. Perhaps spending whatever could be borrowed to beef up the military as opposed to strengthening the economy was not viable. Perhaps having her gold reserves removed clandestinely should have been re-thought.

The above may be OT, but my primary concern re. AGW is that the drum beat of war will drown out whatever cooperative endeavours are planned.
Terry


 I
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on October 05, 2015, 12:56:58 AM
Saudi Arabia cuts the price of crude oil:

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-amid-opec-price-war (http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-prices-amid-opec-price-war)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2015, 01:48:48 AM
Congress Is Trying To Lift The Oil Export Ban. This Is Why They Will Fail.
Quote
The American public has some issues with the repeal. A poll from last year found that more than 80 percent of Americans thought we should use our oil here, not export it. This broad consensus could spell trouble for the senators trying to repeal the ban.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/06/3709456/oil-export-ban-considered/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/10/06/3709456/oil-export-ban-considered/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 03:17:16 PM
Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models
Quote
Through much of the 1980s, Exxon researchers worked alongside university and government scientists to generate objective climate models that yielded papers published in peer-reviewed journals. Their work confirmed the emerging scientific consensus on global warming's risks.

Yet starting in 1989, Exxon leaders went down a different road. They repeatedly argued that the uncertainty inherent in computer models makes them useless for important policy decisions. Even as the models grew more powerful and reliable, Exxon publicly derided the type of work its own scientists had done. The company continued its involvement with climate research, but its reputation for objectivity began to erode as it campaigned internationally to cast doubt on the science.

This eight-month InsideClimate News investigation details Exxon's early research into global warming, based on hundreds of pages of internal documents and interviews with former employees and scientists. The company declined to provide comment or answer questions for this article.
Links to other parts of the investigation are provided at the bottom of the article.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 04:55:25 PM
An earthquake with a magnitude of 4.5 that struck near the U.S. crude oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma on Saturday occurred just days after regulators imposed new rules meant to prevent temblors in the area and said more changes were possible.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0S50SD20151011 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0S50SD20151011)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 09:12:40 PM
Oil unlikely to ever be fully exploited because of climate concerns – BP
Concerns about climate change and carbon emissions means world’s remaining oil resources are not likely to be exhausted, says BP’s chief economist.
Quote
The statement, by the group’s chief economist, is the clearest acknowledgement yet by a major fossil fuel company that some coal, oil and gas will have to remain in the ground if dangerous global warming is to be avoided.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/13/oil-unlikely-to-ever-be-fully-exploited-because-of-climate-concerns-bp (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/13/oil-unlikely-to-ever-be-fully-exploited-because-of-climate-concerns-bp)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 09:37:49 PM
Oil Glut to Stay in 2016 as IEA Sees Slower Demand Growth
Quote
Global demand growth will revert to long-term trend levels of 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016, down from 1.8 million this year, amid a softer economic outlook for oil producers such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Consumption worldwide will average 95.7 million barrels a day next year, about 100,000 a day less than projected in last month’s report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-13/oil-surplus-to-persist-in-2016-as-iea-sees-demand-growth-slowing (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-13/oil-surplus-to-persist-in-2016-as-iea-sees-demand-growth-slowing)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 09:59:31 PM
Quote
@Slate: Not The Onion: Alaska's governor wants to fund climate adaptation via more oil drilling.
https://twitter.com/slate/status/654020308937142272 (https://twitter.com/slate/status/654020308937142272)

Alaska Gov. Says State “Urgently” Needs More Oil Drilling to Pay for Climate Change Damage
Quote
Unfortunately, this is the situation we find ourselves in as America trends toward petrostate politics. As the Hill notes, Alaska has no sales or income tax and derives a significant portion of its revenue from fossil fuel production on public lands. In a very real way, the recent dip in oil prices has hit the state hard—just as climate change impacts have begun to intensify. In one particularly stark example, although this year’s wildfire season was a record-breaker, the state had fewer resources with which to attack the blazes due in part to budget cuts linked to lower oil prices.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/10/13/alaska_gov_bill_walker_oil_should_fund_climate_adaptation.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/10/13/alaska_gov_bill_walker_oil_should_fund_climate_adaptation.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 14, 2015, 12:38:43 AM
I think that it is sad that US shale drilling operations are allowed to flare their natural gas (which does not burn completely and the unburned portion combines with the leaked methane from these frequently poorly regulated operations):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shale-methane-may-exceed-estimates-19538 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/shale-methane-may-exceed-estimates-19538)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2015, 02:26:12 PM
Congressmen want probe of Exxon Mobil 'failing to disclose' climate change data
Quote
The congressmen are asking the Department of Justice to investigate whether Exxon violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, known as RICO, as well as consumer protection, truth in advertising, public health, shareholder protection or other laws.

RICO was the same law used to prosecute tobacco companies, which allows a company’s higher-ups to be held responsible for the actions of those they supervise.

“Exxon’s situation is even worse,” said Lieu, comparing the company’s behavior with the tobacco industry. “It was taking advantage of the science … while denying the facts to the public.”
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-investigation-exxonmobil-20151015-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-investigation-exxonmobil-20151015-story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2015, 03:35:35 AM
February 2015 oil train derailment in West Virginia was caused by a broken rail, which had been noted on two previous inspections but not repaired.

Quote
MONTGOMERY — In a report released Friday, the Federal Railroad Administration stated the February's derailment in Mount Carbon which displaced more than 1,000 people from their homes for days was preventable.
...
In response to the derailment, the FRA will release a safety advisory urging closer and more detailed inspections where defects are suspected and stronger training for rail inspection vehicle operators. FRA is developing a regulation to govern rail-head wear standards and could require railroads to slow trains or replace rails when conditions pose a safety risk.
http://www.register-herald.com/news/broken-rail-cause-derailment-in-mt-carbon/article_2c7043c7-025f-560b-9c4b-edbf4a7b90d5.html (http://www.register-herald.com/news/broken-rail-cause-derailment-in-mt-carbon/article_2c7043c7-025f-560b-9c4b-edbf4a7b90d5.html)

Government findings and response:
https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L17122 (https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L17122)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on October 18, 2015, 07:06:14 PM
I thought I would throw up another link from "Our Finite World" as Gail talks about the deflation issue along with Climate Change.

Quote
In this presentation, I suggest that the standard diagnosis of the problems facing the energy system is incomplete. While climate change may be a problem, there is another urgent problem that attendees at the conference should be aware of as well–affordability, and the severe near-term impact affordability can be expected to have on the system.

I understand that this may not be entirely relevant to the forum, but since well-affordability is a near-term issue, perhaps the conclusion of Gail and the commentors on her blog that this will lead to the end of civilisation as we know it, will act as a solution to Climate Change because we will no longer be able to continue poisoning the earth, leaving only the problems with natural feedbacks like aerosol loss and methane clathrate gun firing while everyone tries to adapt to a world that should progressively improve.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/10/14/our-electricity-problem-getting-the-diagnosis-correct/ (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/10/14/our-electricity-problem-getting-the-diagnosis-correct/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 18, 2015, 09:43:18 PM
See #656 and #662 above.

Quote
@billmckibben: I don't think the #exxonknew scandal can be contained. Today it made the front page of Exxon's hometown newspaper. http://t.co/H1i4B8I0xF (http://t.co/H1i4B8I0xF)

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/655822414585188352 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/655822414585188352)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2015, 03:25:36 AM
More on the Cushing, Oklahoma earthquake (see #657 above).  That location is a particularly dangerous one.

New Concern Over Quakes in Oklahoma Near a Hub of U.S. Oil
Quote
A sharp earthquake in central Oklahoma last weekend has raised fresh concern about the security of a vast crude oil storage complex, close to the quake’s center, that sits at the crossroads of the nation’s oil pipeline network.

The magnitude 4.5 quake struck Saturday afternoon about three miles northwest of Cushing, roughly midway between Oklahoma City and Tulsa. The town of about 8,000 people is home to the so-called Cushing Hub, a sprawling tank farm that is among the largest oil storage facilities in the world.

Scientists reported in a paper published online last month that a large earthquake near the storage hub “could seriously damage storage tanks and pipelines.” Saturday’s quake continues a worrisome pattern of moderate quakes, suggesting that a large earthquake is more than a passing concern, the lead author of that study, Daniel McNamara, said in an interview.

“When we see these fault systems producing multiple magnitude 4s, we start to get concerned that it could knock into higher magnitudes,” he said. “Given the number of magnitude 4s here, it’s a high concern.”

The federal government has designated the hub, run by energy industry companies, a critical national infrastructure. Major tank ruptures could cause serious environmental damage, raise the risk of fire and other disasters and disrupt the flow of oil to refineries nationwide, said Dr. McNamara, a research geophysicist at the National Earthquake Information Center in Colorado.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/us/new-concern-over-quakes-in-oklahoma-near-a-hub-of-us-oil.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/us/new-concern-over-quakes-in-oklahoma-near-a-hub-of-us-oil.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 21, 2015, 01:44:56 PM
Strong editorial in Exxon's Texas hometown newspaper about the oil giant's actions on climate change.
Quote
Nevertheless, we can’t shake the image of Exxon’s executives dismissing the damage their primary product creates but consistently questioning the science that underpins the global-warming argument. It reminds us of the days when Big Tobacco adamantly insisted that science was inconclusive about the cancer-causing effects of cigarettes.
http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20151020-editorial-exxons-missed-opportunity-to-address-climate-change.ece (http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20151020-editorial-exxons-missed-opportunity-to-address-climate-change.ece)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on October 21, 2015, 03:20:39 PM
The next 10 - 20 years is going to be a PAINFUL TIME in the "oil patch."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-chanos-nails-between-debt-103435995.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-chanos-nails-between-debt-103435995.html)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 21, 2015, 11:38:16 PM
Came across this John Oliver piece on North Dakota's lax safety standards for their oil and gas industry. 
20-minute video. (Caution: language.)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: North Dakota (HBO)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jYusNNldesc&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2015, 12:43:41 AM
The Link Between Debt and Energy
Quote
U.S. oil production is expected to grow 6 percent in 2015, despite a stunning 59 percent drop in the U.S. rig count over the past year.
...
According to Chanos, cash flow from operations at some of the most prominent exploration and production companies has not covered capital expenditure since 2010, meaning that they have consistently outspent income.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/jim-chanos-nails-the-link-between-debt-and-energy (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/jim-chanos-nails-the-link-between-debt-and-energy)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on October 24, 2015, 07:42:25 PM
For oil and gas:  UH OH......."Houston, I think we have a problem."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/wind-energy-cheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-fowke-says?cmpid=yhoo.headline (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/wind-energy-cheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-fowke-says?cmpid=yhoo.headline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2015, 01:09:17 PM
Are IEA reports tilted toward extra FF use?

Quote
International Energy Agency (IEA) projections that show the world will continue its heavy reliance on fossil fuels deep into this century are uncertain and being used to mislead governments and shareholders, according to a new report.

The fossil fuel industry commonly cites modelling by the IEA, an intergovernmental organisation considered to be an authoritative source of information on energy, which finds demand for their products increasing until at least 2040.

But analysts at the London-based Carbon Tracker thinktank found IEA models were based on high-end assumptions about global population and economic growth. In additon, the agency has failed to track the exponential growth of the renewable energy industry
Quote
The IEA’s spokesman said: “The differences that have occurred between actual levels of renewables generation and projected levels in [our past reports] really just serve to reinforce the point that the IEA has made for a long time: that policies do matter.”
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/23/are-fossil-fuel-companies-using-iea-reports-to-talk-up-demand (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/23/are-fossil-fuel-companies-using-iea-reports-to-talk-up-demand)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2015, 03:01:39 AM
Royal Dutch Shell Plc quits Carmon Creek oilsands project over lack of pipeline capacity
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/royal-dutch-shell-plc-quits-carmon-creek-oilsands-project-taking-us2b-charge (http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/royal-dutch-shell-plc-quits-carmon-creek-oilsands-project-taking-us2b-charge)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2015, 02:17:47 AM
Next door to Oklahoma.  The number of earthquakes in the state jumped from four in 2013, to 817 in 2014!

Southern Kansas sees sudden spike in earthquakes
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/27/southern-kansas-sees-sudden-spike-in-earthquakes/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/27/southern-kansas-sees-sudden-spike-in-earthquakes/)

Edit:  Kansas geologists look for earthquake and fracking correlation
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/02/06/kansas-geologists-look-for-earthquake-and-fracking-correlation/ (http://fuelfix.com/blog/2015/02/06/kansas-geologists-look-for-earthquake-and-fracking-correlation/)

Another edit: Kansas Geological Survey links earthquakes to fracking waste disposal
http://www.kansas.com/news/state/article7540583.html (http://www.kansas.com/news/state/article7540583.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on October 29, 2015, 11:05:11 PM
Helooo ! What's that I hear ? A bell, I think, faint in the distance. It sounds like the same bell that's tolling so loudly now for the coalpits. But one's saying something about gas. Getting closer too.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/wind-energy-cheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-fowke-says (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-23/wind-energy-cheaper-than-natural-gas-for-xcel-ceo-fowke-says)

" ... is receiving bids for 20-year power-purchase agreements at about $25 a megawatt-hour for wind energy ... "

" ... it’s a hedge against natural gas ... "

That last quote says it all.

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2015, 03:42:18 AM
Almost a Billion Cubic Feet of U.S. Gas Shut Down by Low Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/almost-a-billion-cubic-feet-of-u-s-gas-shut-down-by-low-prices (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/almost-a-billion-cubic-feet-of-u-s-gas-shut-down-by-low-prices)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2015, 03:59:05 PM
Oil Producers Curb Megaproject Ambitions to Focus on U.S. Shale
Quote
Big U.S. oil companies are starting to think small.

A stubborn 16-month crude rout with no end in sight is driving the largest U.S. oil producers away from costly, high-risk megaprojects long touted as the industry’s future and toward safer shale operations that generate the cash needed to satisfy anxious investors.

Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips and Hess Corp. have all either delayed or abandoned projects that range from the deep seas of the Gulf of Mexico to Canada’s oil sands and the U.S. Arctic. At the same time, Exxon and Chevron both announced plans to substantially increase U.S. crude production, largely as a result of their shale operations.

“What makes more sense in this environment: drill a $100 million well in the deepwater Gulf that might come up empty, or poke lots of holes in west Texas where you already know there’s oil for a few million apiece?” said Michael Webber, deputy director of the University of Texas Energy Institute.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/oil-producers-curb-megaproject-ambitions-to-focus-on-u-s-shale (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/oil-producers-curb-megaproject-ambitions-to-focus-on-u-s-shale)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: wili on November 03, 2015, 03:05:32 AM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/transcanada-requests-suspension-of-u-s-permit-for-keystone-xl-pipeline-1446507279 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/transcanada-requests-suspension-of-u-s-permit-for-keystone-xl-pipeline-1446507279)

This seems like kinda big news. Is Keystone finally dead?

Quote
TransCanada Requests Suspension of U.S. Permit for Keystone XL Pipeline

The company behind the Keystone XL pipeline on Monday asked the U.S. government to suspend its permit application, throwing the politically fraught project into an indefinite state of limbo, beyond the 2016 U.S. elections.

Calgary, Alberta-based TransCanada Corp. sent a letter to the State Department, which reviews cross-border pipelines, to suspend its application while the company goes through a state review process in Nebraska it had previously resisted. The move comes in the face of an expected rejection by the Obama administration and low oil prices that are sapping business interests in Canada’s oil reserves.

“In order to allow time for certainty regarding the Nebraska route, TransCanada requests that the State Department pause in its review of the Presidential Permit application for Keystone XL,” the company said in the suspension request reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “This will allow a decision on the Permit to be made later based on certainty with respect to the route of the pipeline.”

The announcement marks a turning point for the company’s effort to get the pipeline approved. Its executives have repeatedly said over the years they wouldn’t back down from seeking a permit in the face of political or economic uncertainty. Low oil prices have called into question to what extent oil companies would need the pipeline and President Barack Obama has repeatedly said he doubted the pipeline would benefit the U.S.
----------------------------------------------
Keystone XL also has faced unexpected resistance in Alberta, home to Canada’s oil sands, with the election in May of a left-leaning government that has adopted a lukewarm approach to the project. Premier Rachel Notley has questioned the need for greater access to the U.S. market, which buys nearly all the oil that Canada exports. Ms. Notley instead has signaled her support for alternative routes such as a proposed pipeline that would link to Eastern Canadian refineries.

TransCanada also lost a staunch ally when Canada’s longtime ruling party lost its mandate in federal elections earlier this month, prompting the ouster of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who once called Keystone XL a “no-brainer.” His successor, Prime Minister-elect Justin Trudeau has signaled support for Keystone XL but isn’t expected to make it a signal issue in U.S.-Canadian relations.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 03:45:04 AM
Nothing firm, but this is from today:
Quote
Earlier in the week, the White House indicated its intention to rule on the controversy-ridden pipeline by the end of Obama's term; some were expecting the State Department decision to reject the pipeline as soon as the end of the week.
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/11/transcanada-just-asked-us-suspend-keystone-xl-pipeline (http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/11/transcanada-just-asked-us-suspend-keystone-xl-pipeline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 03:47:25 AM
Quote
Saudi Arabia is creating a special office to tighten oversight of government spending as the country grapples with sliding oil prices and its first projected budget deficit since 2009, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/saudi-arabia-said-to-create-special-office-to-help-cut-spending (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/saudi-arabia-said-to-create-special-office-to-help-cut-spending)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 04, 2015, 07:21:08 PM
U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal--who also is former state Attorney General--joins the call for Exxon accountability.
Quote
...Blumenthal and three fellow New England Democratic senators last week sent a letter to oil and gas giant ExxonMobil demanding to know whether the company or its employees made anonymous donations to a conservative fund that backs climate change denial research.
http://m.hartfordbusiness.com/ARTICLE/20151103/NEWS/151109985 (http://m.hartfordbusiness.com/ARTICLE/20151103/NEWS/151109985)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 06, 2015, 07:12:57 PM
New York’s Attorney General Is Investigating Exxon
Quote
Schneiderman’s investigation will seek to answer questions about whether ExxonMobil engaged in a cover-up to mislead the public about the risks of human-caused climate change. Those questions were raised publicly by recent investigations from Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times, which found that the company knew as far back as 1977 that its product was contributing to climate change.

Instead of acknowledging this, however, the investigations found that Exxon gave millions of dollars to politicians and groups that deny climate science, and downplayed the scientific certainty. According to the Times, Schneiderman’s investigation began in secret a year ago, but the reporting from Inside Climate and The Los Angeles Times added “impetus” to their effort.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/05/3719767/investigate-exxon-new-york-attorney-general/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/05/3719767/investigate-exxon-new-york-attorney-general/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 04:03:19 AM
That Time I Tried to Buy an Actual Barrel of Crude Oil
Quote
Could a barrel of crude really kill me?" I asked a petrochemical engineer captive to my persistent, doubtlessly annoying questions. It absolutely can, he said. Hydrogen sulfide gas—H2S, for short—has a terrible propensity to evaporate from crude, knock out your olfactory capabilities, and slowly suffocate you to death.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/that-time-i-tried-to-buy-some-crude-oil (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-03/that-time-i-tried-to-buy-some-crude-oil)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 04:48:52 PM
Oil Supply Picture Has Changed Since Keystone Was Proposed
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/energy-environment/oil-supply-picture-has-changed-since-keystone-was-proposed.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/business/energy-environment/oil-supply-picture-has-changed-since-keystone-was-proposed.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 09, 2015, 12:59:04 PM
Is Exxon's financial support of climate change denial protected as a "free speech" issue?

The war against Exxon Mobil
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-war-against-exxon-mobil/2015/11/08/094ff978-84a6-11e5-8ba6-cec48b74b2a7_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-war-against-exxon-mobil/2015/11/08/094ff978-84a6-11e5-8ba6-cec48b74b2a7_story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 12, 2015, 12:02:47 AM
The linked article discusses how crude oil prices remain low; which means that it will take longer for renewables to gain market share:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T001520151111#bvjFvxIAjAD3Jzq2.97 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0T001520151111#bvjFvxIAjAD3Jzq2.97)

Extract: "Oil prices fell about 3 percent on Wednesday, hitting August lows, on worries U.S. crude inventories were piling up and Iraq was bringing on more supply that would intensify OPEC's fight for market share."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 13, 2015, 03:19:32 AM
Oklahoma world's No. 1 earthquake area
Quote
ENID, Okla. — Oklahoma is now the No. 1 earthquake area in the world, an Oklahoma Corporation Commission spokesman said Monday.

Spokesman Matt Skinner said the state is unique in terms of frequency.

"We have had 15 (earthquakes) in Medford since 5 o'clock Saturday morning," he noted. "We've got an earthquake issue."
http://www.enidnews.com/news/local_news/oklahoma-world-s-no-earthquake-area/article_69b145b8-c180-5065-8f99-b2a7ec7ce913.html (http://www.enidnews.com/news/local_news/oklahoma-world-s-no-earthquake-area/article_69b145b8-c180-5065-8f99-b2a7ec7ce913.html)


Oklahoma regulators limit disposal wells after Medford-area earthquakes
Quote
State regulators on Tuesday directed five companies to limit operations at nine disposal wells north of Medford after more than two dozen earthquakes shook the area over the past four days.
http://newsok.com/article/5459507 (http://newsok.com/article/5459507)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 13, 2015, 01:36:33 PM
UK becomes only G7 country to increase fossil fuel subsidies
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 13, 2015, 01:52:11 PM
"Peak demand" means world may never see oil at $100 a barrel again
Quote
Oil at Peak Demand: Cheap gas and renewable energy have slashed demand for oil, erasing decades-old concerns about “peak supply” and opening a new era of “peak demand.” Oil today stands at around $50 a barrel, a fraction of the price analysts predicted in the 1980s as global reserves were expected to become scarcer. Higher fuel efficiencies for cars and the industry's switch towards less-polluting sources of energy such as gas, biofuels, solar and wind power, mean that oil demand could plateau in the coming decades.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/oil-demand-idUSL8N12Z4ZJ20151105 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/oil-demand-idUSL8N12Z4ZJ20151105)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on November 13, 2015, 05:33:48 PM
You might want to watch Exxon stock over the next couple of weeks STARTING TODAY.  From a "technical charting" point of view.....it looks poised to drop to the $60ish area from its current $79 bucks.

Oil and gas companies have been getting HAMMERED over the last 12 months.....and it looks like we have one more step down before that area "rallies".

If Exxon moves down to the $60ish area over the next week or two....it could have a nice rally UP after that for 12 - 18 months.....before it ULTIMATELY CRATERS....and continues its LONG downward trend.

I honestly don't think the O&G players REALLY know what is coming their way regarding the move AWAY from fossil fuels.  I think they see a light at the end of the tunnel.....but they don't know it is a train coming their way.

It is truly fascinating to watch.  It is like watching a high speed wreck in slow motion......

 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2015, 02:39:30 AM
More discussion over in the Keystone Pipeline thread.

Tanker Ban Spells End for the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline
Quote
[Vancouver, British Columbia] Today the Prime Minister of Canada instructed his incoming Minister of Transport to formalize a moratorium on crude oil tanker traffic on British Columbia’s north coast.

Karen Mahon, ForestEthics Advocacy director issued the following statement:

“This ban ends the dangerous Northern Gateway pipeline proposal.”

“Without tankers crude oil has no place to go, that means no pipelines, no oil trains moving tar sands to the northern BC coast.”

“We are living the tipping point on climate disruption. Exactly a week ago President Obama killed the Keystone XL pipeline, today Prime Minister Trudeau killed the Enbridge pipeline. The whole world is heading to Paris this month to come up with a plan to fight climate change. This is the beginning of the end for the dirtiest crude oil on Earth.”
http://www.forestethics.org/news/tanker-ban-spells-end-enbridge-northern-gateway-pipeline (http://www.forestethics.org/news/tanker-ban-spells-end-enbridge-northern-gateway-pipeline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2015, 01:23:46 PM
From 2014:  Q&A: Why First Nations Are Stopping Enbridge's Tar Sands Pipeline
Quote
All of our communities have a land use plan. We have a marine use plan. What that means is that we're serious about our economy. We want to make sure that it's self-sufficient based on what's there, and that it doesn't harm the environment—so it lasts forever.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140731/qa-why-first-nations-are-stopping-enbridges-tar-sands-pipeline (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140731/qa-why-first-nations-are-stopping-enbridges-tar-sands-pipeline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 15, 2015, 03:34:02 PM
3-minute Bloomberg video opines that no single energy source will take over for oil in the near future.  (And that electric vehicles hold the key to the switch.)

Power Struggle: How the Energy Market Could Shift in 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-11/power-struggle-how-the-energy-market-could-shift-in-2016 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-11-11/power-struggle-how-the-energy-market-could-shift-in-2016)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 04:06:57 AM
Oil cracks $40 on global supply glut, may head to $30
Quote
"We should normally in November until January be in a drawdown period for crude oil inventories, and that has not been the case in the last four weeks," said Mike Dragosits, senior commodities analyst at TD Securities. "We continue to see builds. As we go forward, we're going to start to see some of the petroleum products building, gasoline, distillates and if we have crude oil inventories not declining, even building, we're going to stay in a record oversupply situation."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/oil-cracks-40-on-global-supply-glut-may-head-to-30.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/18/oil-cracks-40-on-global-supply-glut-may-head-to-30.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 07:01:40 PM
"OPEC took a swing at U.S. shale and knocked down Canada."

OPEC Targets U.S. Shale, But Hits Canada Instead
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/opec-threatened-by-u-s-shale-hits-canada-harder-in-price-fight (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/opec-threatened-by-u-s-shale-hits-canada-harder-in-price-fight)
Quote
Threatened by surging production from North America, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been pumping above its quota for 17 months as it seeks to take market share from higher-cost regions. The resulting 60 percent price crash is hitting Alberta harder than Texas.

Canadian producers are struggling to cut the cost of extracting bitumen from the oil sands, and their other wells are failing to match the efficiency gains of U.S. rivals, a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis shows. While output keeps rising in the Permian Basin, the largest U.S. shale play, companies are slowing output from wells in Alberta and have shelved 18 oil-sands projects during the downturn, according to ARC Financial Corp.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 05:28:17 PM
Strong Earthquake Rattles Oklahoma, Felt in 7 Other States
Quote
The Oklahoma Geological Survey concluded that the injection of wastewater byproducts into deep underground disposal wells from fracking operations has awakened the state’s dormant fault lines.

Oklahoma now has more earthquakes than anywhere else in the world, a spokesperson from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission reported.

In a joint statement last year, the USGS and the Oklahoma Geological Survey said that the risk of a damaging earthquake—one larger than magnitude 5.0—has significantly increased in central Oklahoma.

As for Kansas, the Washington Post reported last month that the number of earthquakes in the state have jumped from only four in 2013 to a whopping 817 in 2014.
...
In August, Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin admitted that there was a “direct correlation between the increase of earthquakes that we’ve seen in Oklahoma [and] disposal wells.” Fallin, however, must weigh the pros and cons of fracking in her state, as the sector provides a significant number of jobs.
http://ecowatch.com/2015/11/19/oklahoma-earthquake-fracking/ (http://ecowatch.com/2015/11/19/oklahoma-earthquake-fracking/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 08:21:51 PM
With Pipeline Stopped, Fight Ramps Up Against 'Keystone of the Great Lakes'
Groups are urging State Dept. scrutiny of an Enbridge pipeline they say is moving twice the amount of tar sands oil into the U.S. than it's permitted for.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20112015/activists-keystone-xl-pipeline-enbridge-alberta-clipper-tar-sands-great-lakes (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20112015/activists-keystone-xl-pipeline-enbridge-alberta-clipper-tar-sands-great-lakes)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 22, 2015, 04:35:32 AM
Oklahoma Corporation Commission closes disposal wells following magnitude-4.7 earthquake
http://m.newsok.com/corporation-commission-closes-disposal-wells-following-magnitude-4.7-earthquake/article/5461512 (http://m.newsok.com/corporation-commission-closes-disposal-wells-following-magnitude-4.7-earthquake/article/5461512)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 22, 2015, 03:47:33 PM
Oil companies brace for big wave of debt defaults
Quote
Low oil prices are leaving many oil and gas companies with difficult debt loads, causing them to default at an extraordinary rate.

On top of that, rating firm Moody's forecasts the default rate will increase.

"The energy sector remains the most troubled, accounting for almost a quarter of the 79 defaults so far this year," said Sharon Ou, Moody's Credit Policy Research senior credit officer.

The strain on the oil patch comes after years of borrowing heavily at the start of the domestic energy renaissance.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-companies-brace-for-big-wave-of-debt-defaults.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-companies-brace-for-big-wave-of-debt-defaults.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 22, 2015, 06:26:44 PM
UK becomes only G7 country to increase fossil fuel subsidies

Plus we have a "dash for gas":

http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-uk-pledges-coal-phase-out-by-2025-but-uncertainty-remains (http://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-uk-pledges-coal-phase-out-by-2025-but-uncertainty-remains)

Quote
The UK has announced its intention to close all unabated coal-fired power stations by 2025 and restrict their usage from 2023.

So far so good? On the other hand:

Quote
The promise of a coal phase out by 2025 comes with a significant caveat, however.

[Amber] Rudd stressed that the space left by the demise in coal should be filled by gas — less polluting than coal, but a carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuel no less. She said:

"Let me be clear, we’ll only proceed if we’re confident that the shift [from coal] to new gas can be achieved within these timescales."

Rudd promised that this switch would be “one of the greatest and most cost-effective contributions we can make to emission reductions in electricity”.

Indeed, the promised coal phase out is contingent upon a shift to gas being possible within the 2025 time scale, Rudd added.

Many observers criticised this approach, suggesting that it was neither cost-effective, nor consistent with meeting the UK’s legally binding climate targets.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on November 23, 2015, 03:34:33 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-companies-brace-big-wave-220000867.html# (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-companies-brace-big-wave-220000867.html#)

Also....on a related note...it looks as though Saudi Arabia IS getting ready to "step in" and put a stop to the drop in oil.  A few months ago...it did NOT look like they would do so....and WITHOUT them stepping in, oil was likely headed to $30 or the high $20's.  But if they do INDEED step in, I would expect oil markets to find their footing....and for oil to be between $40 - $60 over coming months.

There will still be some oil companies that will NOT make it through (those with higher costs....and too much debt to service).

Keep in mind that the death of oil will be a VERY LONG TERM ORDEAL.  Multiple decades....as renewable energy sources continue to gather steam (pun intended) and chip away at fossil fuels.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 23, 2015, 06:21:58 PM
A Texas Pipeline’s Controversial Path through the Big Bend region of Texas to the Mexico border.
http://www.nbcnews.com/pages/texas-pipeline (http://www.nbcnews.com/pages/texas-pipeline)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 23, 2015, 10:03:31 PM
Statoil Sees More Norway Oil Exploration Cuts Amid Arctic Halt
Quote
Norway’s biggest oil explorer and producer is set to drill 16 wells in the country as an operator in 2015, down from 21 last year. It hasn’t drilled in the Barents Sea off Norway’s northern tip this year after a record campaign ended with disappointing results in 2014. Statoil will return in 2017 at the earliest once it’s received new acreage in upcoming licensing rounds, Dodson said.

Statoil and rival oil companies are cutting spending after oil prices slumped. The Stavanger-based company has cut the equivalent of four drilling years by terminating and suspending contracts for several rigs in Norway during the same period, according to Bloomberg calculations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2015, 03:53:10 AM

We will all see soon enough whether the US has the character to leave these news proven oil & gas reserves in the ground:

http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/141760/EIA_Shale_Drilling_Boosted_US_Oil_Gas_Reserves_In_2014 (http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/141760/EIA_Shale_Drilling_Boosted_US_Oil_Gas_Reserves_In_2014)

Extract: "Reserves of oil and natural gas in the United States shot higher last year, according to government data released Monday, setting records that reveal the extent to which a decade-long drilling boom has transformed the energy landscape. Proved reserves of natural gas rose by 34.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 10 percent, to a record high of 388.8 tcf in 2014, while oil reserves rose 3.4 billion barrels, or nine percent, to 39.9 billion barrels, the highest since 1972, the Energy Information Administration said in a statement."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 24, 2015, 04:23:11 AM
Oil crash sparks OPEC revolt against Saudis
Quote
A war of words has broken out between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and disgruntled smaller oil producers like Venezuela and Algeria. The smaller countries want the cartel to hit the brakes on production to help lift depressed oil prices -- and their own struggling economies.

As the leading oil producer, the Saudis hold enormous sway over the oil cartel. Their long term bet is that by keeping oil prices low, they will squeeze American shale oil producers out of the game. That way, the Saudis can again regain market share lost to the U.S.

Just 10 years ago, Saudi Arabia was the world's largest oil producing nation, churning out nearly twice as much crude oil as the U.S. But American output has skyrocketed in recent years thanks to the shale revolution, which has completely reshaped the global energy equation. Today the U.S. produces nearly as much as Saudi Arabia.

The onslaught of U.S. oil has sent prices spiraling from over $100 a barrel in mid-2014 to around $40 a barrel currently.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/23/investing/saudi-arabia-opec-revolt-oil-prices/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/23/investing/saudi-arabia-opec-revolt-oil-prices/index.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on November 24, 2015, 05:37:06 AM
Statoil Sees More Norway Oil Exploration Cuts Amid Arctic Halt
Quote
Norway’s biggest oil explorer and producer is set to drill 16 wells in the country as an operator in 2015, down from 21 last year. It hasn’t drilled in the Barents Sea off Norway’s northern tip this year after a record campaign ended with disappointing results in 2014. Statoil will return in 2017 at the earliest once it’s received new acreage in upcoming licensing rounds, Dodson said.

Statoil and rival oil companies are cutting spending after oil prices slumped. The Stavanger-based company has cut the equivalent of four drilling years by terminating and suspending contracts for several rigs in Norway during the same period, according to Bloomberg calculations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/statoil-sees-more-norway-oil-exploration-cuts-amid-arctic-halt)

Good news?
 
No, Statoil has their eyes set on next year, when they will present plans for Trestakk and Alfa Central. At the end of 2016, they will decide over the two larger prospects, that really make their mouths water, Castberg (Barents) and Snorre 2040. Investment decisions are expected to follow in early 2017.
http://offshore.no/sak/251297_statoil-bygger-ut-disse-to-feltene (http://offshore.no/sak/251297_statoil-bygger-ut-disse-to-feltene)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on November 26, 2015, 09:46:51 PM
Gail on oil supply and demand:http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/11/23/why-supply-and-demand-doesnt-work-for-oil/

Also some firms appear.to be facing defaults, if this occurs over the next six months, the oil could be left in the ground, possibly a good thing environmentally speaking:http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-companies-brace-for-big-wave-of-debt-defaults.html
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on November 27, 2015, 06:11:12 AM
Let's hope for the best, be prepared for the worst.

We've been fed with a lot of overly positive attitudes in my country.
But a poll showed that 80% of us thinks that a plan to end fossil fuel use within 15-20 years is BS. Recent figures shows that 20% of us supports a pure denialist party. Recent figures shows that emissions internally have dropped off by 3% which is explained by the recent mild winters, but we are still increasing our emissions due to consumption and we think that having our most polluting business in Germany (that emits more than our entire nation) is Germanys problem.

But I do hope the dark side will loose.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 28, 2015, 02:47:20 AM
U.S. Crude Stocks Up for 9th Week, Fuel Supplies Also Rise
Quote
U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a small but unexpected stockpile addition. As it is, the commodity’s stock remains at levels not seen since the 1930s in the face of weak global consumption. Consequently, oil – which was hovering around $110 per barrel just over a year ago – is now struggling to stay above $40. In between, it sunk to a 6½-year low of $38 a barrel.

The report further revealed that refined product inventories – gasoline and distillate – both increased from their previous week levels too, again defying analyst predictions. Meanwhile, refiners scaled up their utilization rates.
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/199337/us-crude-stocks-up-for-9th-week-fuel-supplies-also-rise (http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/199337/us-crude-stocks-up-for-9th-week-fuel-supplies-also-rise)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on November 28, 2015, 04:50:16 AM
In Sweden, sales of E85 will soon come to an end and the Swedes are migrating to diesel.
Volvo announced that they will stop sales of E85 cars. E85 will soon overtake both petrol and diesel as the most expensive fuel per litre. E85 is already the most expensive fuel for most engines due to higher consumption compared to petrol.

Sales of petrol are still decreasing, but has leveled out and is not dropping as before. Diesel is the cheapest fuel and sales are increasing. More surprising is that sales of heating oil/ fuel oil has increased by 11%. Personally, the last heating oil I used was back in 1988.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 29, 2015, 03:35:41 PM
Quote
@billmckibben: Look closely. Someone appears to be producing real ads for #exxonknew. Thanks, @BrandalismUK https://t.co/MhBr90jSLR

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/670764128982691841
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on November 30, 2015, 01:35:46 PM
Other Brandalism posters:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34958282 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34958282)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 01, 2015, 04:35:13 PM
Oil Bulls Brace for Repeat of OPEC's Bearish Blow at Meeting
Quote
[West Texas Intermediate crude oil benchmark price] has declined 39 percent in the past year and slipped 5 cents to $41.60 a 8:32 a.m. Futures advanced 5.4 percent during the report week to $42.87.

OPEC’s decision to keep the spigot open has compounded a worldwide surplus of crude. The 12-member organization pumped 32.121 million barrels a day in November, the 18th straight month above its target of 30 million, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. U.S. stockpiles stand at more than 488 million barrels, the highest for this time of year since 1930.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/oil-bulls-brace-for-repeat-of-opec-s-bearish-blow-at-meeting (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/oil-bulls-brace-for-repeat-of-opec-s-bearish-blow-at-meeting)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on December 01, 2015, 05:22:00 PM
The Russian bear is moaning.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-29/the-30-oil-cliff-that-economists-see-threatening-russia-in-2016 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-29/the-30-oil-cliff-that-economists-see-threatening-russia-in-2016)
Quote
“If oil prices fall lower and stay at that low level for longer, risks of fiscal and financial destabilization increase significantly,” Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at PAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e-mail.

Yet small companies like Lundin Petroleum seems cocky enough. Yes, it's actually a Swedish oil company.
https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/Documents/qr_3_2015_e.pdf (https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/Documents/qr_3_2015_e.pdf)
Quote
We will continue to actively explore in our two core areas, Norway and Malaysia. In both countries we will maintain a very
focused and disciplined approach. In 2016 we will be active in three areas; the Utsira High and the southern Barents Sea in
Norway and the Sabah province offshore Malaysia. I am particularly excited about our position in the southern Barents Sea
where we have already made two significant discoveries in addition to two further exploration wells to be drilled this year
(Neiden and Ørnen). Given the leading acreage position we have accumulated in the Loppa High where the majority of the
discoveries have been made in the last few years, I am confident we will find more resources. In addition, with the upcoming
23rd licensing round, mostly covering acreage in the Barents Sea, I have no doubt in my mind that the area will become a very
active exploration region that will undoubtedly lead to commercial development activities. What is even more exciting for me
is that we have just started to “scratch the surface” in this region.

Quote
We are facing challenging times but our Company is indeed very well positioned as we are now entering a new phase of
significant growth led by a great team of people. In my view Lundin Petroleum will come out of this cycle stronger than ever.
As Adolf Lundin used to tell us: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going”. This has never been more true than in
today’s environment.

Edit, sorry for the line breaks, just read the pdf, there's not one single word of AGW in the letter to their shareholders.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 01, 2015, 05:58:36 PM
Exxon takes aim at Columbia University journalists over climate reports
Quote
ExxonMobil is hurling ethics accusations against a team of Columbia University journalists whose reporting helped stoke calls for probes into whether the company deliberately misled the public about climate change.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2015/11/exxonmobil-climate-change-ethics-allegations-columbia-university-216287 (http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2015/11/exxonmobil-climate-change-ethics-allegations-columbia-university-216287)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 02, 2015, 04:48:27 PM
Per the linked article, many experts believe that despite robust demand (meaning high GHG emissions), the current glut in the oil market will not clear before 2017:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/opec-meeting-idINL8N13R1T120151202 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/12/02/opec-meeting-idINL8N13R1T120151202)

Extract: "But outside the United States the there are few signs of a slowdown in supply prompting many commentators to predict that the glut would not clear before 2017 despite robust demand."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2015, 04:59:45 PM
Columbia Dean Issues Forceful Defense Against Exxon's Misconduct Allegations
'I have concluded that your allegations are unsupported by evidence,' Dean Steve Coll wrote in his letter to Exxon executive Kenneth Cohen.
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/02122015/columbia-university-exxon-climate-change-research (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/02122015/columbia-university-exxon-climate-change-research)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 02, 2015, 08:16:49 PM
Exxon's move down to the $56 - $60 area continues.  Today it has broken down below $80....and I expect the trip down to the mid-to-high $50's to be done in a matter of a week or two.  It will be quick.

Then.....it looks like it will be "poised" for a pretty good "bounce" for a year or two back UP to the $90ish range.

We are witnessing the beginning of the end for oil companies.  It will take decades of pain for them.....20 years?  Really no way to tell....but the direction is CRYSTAL CLEAR.

Here is a link to look at a chart of XOM since the 1990's.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=xom&time=100&startdate=1%2F4%2F1990&enddate=12%2F2%2F2015&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=37&y=13 (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=xom&time=100&startdate=1%2F4%2F1990&enddate=12%2F2%2F2015&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=37&y=13)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 03, 2015, 04:26:42 AM
WTI settles under $40; Brent ends near 7-year low
Quote
U.S. oil futures sank under $40 a barrel on Wednesday and Brent oil plunged to nearly seven-year low after U.S. government data revealed a 10th straight weekly climb in crude supplies and comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen pointed toward an interest-rate hike by the central bank later this month.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-slip-as-traders-brace-for-bigger-stockpiles-2015-12-02 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-prices-slip-as-traders-brace-for-bigger-stockpiles-2015-12-02)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on December 03, 2015, 06:13:47 AM
And where will we be in twenty years?
Black solid line is the infamous two degree target from the -70's.

Graph nicked and modified from here.
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004 (http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105004)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 03, 2015, 06:37:51 PM
The other item RELATED to the drop in fossil fuel companies.....is the BANKS that hold loans/notes MADE TO THEM.

There are a LOT of small and some "mid tier" companies that are now...or will soon be....flat on their back.

Banks are going to take a "hit" in the short run.....because they have NOT reserved enough on their balance sheets for the companies that will be going under.  Please note....I am NOT saying this will be a "crisis" for the banks....just another "negative" for which they have NOT YET accrued enough reserves.

Today (Thursday) in the US equity markets....two of the big losers on a down day are (1) oil and gas companies, and (2) banks.  The big winner today?  RENEWABLE COMPANIES.

Expect that "divergence" between renewable companies.....and oil/gas companies....to continue for the next decade.

In about 2 - 3 years....the O&G companies are going to "fall off the cliff" as far as Wall Street is concerned.  Same for electric utilities.

 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 04, 2015, 04:04:25 PM
OIL & GAS COMPANIES VS THE STOCK MARKET

Today (Friday) is a good example of what you are going to see a LOT of over the next 5 - 10 years:

On a BIG up day in the US markets....the stock market is up over 1% in the first 30 minutes.....while Exxon and Chevron (the two largest US oil and gas companies) are down more than 1% and 1.5%.

You will see this "divergence" more and more over the coming years.  The "market" has already figured out....that oil and gas is "GOING AWAY" over the coming decades.  Its NOT a matter of IF....just a matter of WHEN.

But the market is also figuring out that having oil and gas "go away".....will be a VERY GOOD THING:

1)  Fewer health problems
2)  Less strife from issues with countries who have most of the oil and gas
3)  Better environment to live
4)  MUCH lower cost of energy as renewables infrastructure is built out

Mr. Market is figuring that all out.....on its own.  And those left "holding the bag" of oil and gas stocks (as well as electric utility stocks) will be in for some sizeable losses.

The other interesting thing to watch for....AND EXPECT....is for a "divergence" between oil and gas companies.....and other "commodity" companies (iron ore, aluminum, concrete, copper, .....other "hard commodities").

I expect many of those other hard commodity companies to perform very WELL over coming years as oil and gas goes down the tubes.  Because the other part of global warming....will be a lot of infrastructure building in coming decades.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on December 04, 2015, 08:07:37 PM
OIL & GAS COMPANIES VS THE STOCK MARKET

Today (Friday) is a good example of what you are going to see a LOT of over the next 5 - 10 years:

On a BIG up day in the US markets....the stock market is up over 1% in the first 30 minutes.....while Exxon and Chevron (the two largest US oil and gas companies) are down more than 1% and 1.5%.

You will see this "divergence" more and more over the coming years.  The "market" has already figured out....that oil and gas is "GOING AWAY" over the coming decades.  Its NOT a matter of IF....just a matter of WHEN.

But the market is also figuring out that having oil and gas "go away".....will be a VERY GOOD THING:

1)  Fewer health problems
2)  Less strife from issues with countries who have most of the oil and gas
3)  Better environment to live
4)  MUCH lower cost of energy as renewables infrastructure is built out

Mr. Market is figuring that all out.....on its own.  And those left "holding the bag" of oil and gas stocks (as well as electric utility stocks) will be in for some sizeable losses.

The other interesting thing to watch for....AND EXPECT....is for a "divergence" between oil and gas companies.....and other "commodity" companies (iron ore, aluminum, concrete, copper, .....other "hard commodities").

I expect many of those other hard commodity companies to perform very WELL over coming years as oil and gas goes down the tubes.  Because the other part of global warming....will be a lot of infrastructure building in coming decades.

Other commodities need oil and gas though, without oil and gas, it is impossible to create solar panels or maintain wind turbines or hydroelectric dams, and it wont be possible to maintain roads or agriculture without oil, so perhaps the environment improves, but with a lot of human suffering.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 04, 2015, 11:19:27 PM
Per the linked article the price of crude oil dropped about 2% today:

http://in.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idINKBN0TN1XJ20151204 (http://in.reuters.com/article/global-oil-idINKBN0TN1XJ20151204)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 01:21:22 AM
The U.S. Has An Oil Train Problem
Quote
The fact is, there is no safe way to transport oil. Studies have shown that while trains spill more often, pipelines spill more oil per incident.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/03/3727822/crude-by-rail-2015-biggest-year-ever/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/03/3727822/crude-by-rail-2015-biggest-year-ever/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 05, 2015, 02:19:26 PM
Quote
Other commodities need oil and gas though, without oil and gas, it is impossible to create solar panels or maintain wind turbines or hydroelectric dams, and it wont be possible to maintain roads or agriculture without oil, so perhaps the environment improves, but with a lot of human suffering.


There are ALREADY companies making "synthetic oil".....for many applications.  The "electrification" of transportation will come quicker than most people think.

Here's a good link for you:

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/11/29/weekend-wonk-bonus-amory-lovins-on-disrupting-oil-markets/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/11/29/weekend-wonk-bonus-amory-lovins-on-disrupting-oil-markets/)

This doesn't happen in a decade or two....but it will happen much more quickly than many think.  And it will be the capital markets that spur it on.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 05, 2015, 02:33:09 PM
This link was posted by another member elsewhere on this site....but this is a GOOD article to read.  It will show you two things:  (1)  Electric utilizes are starting to get "bypassed" by some users for at least some of their power needs, (2) this will impact natural gas companies more and more as time goes by.

The death of fossil fuels is still in its "early days"...but we're NOT in the 1st inning.  And ending score is certainly clear.  The only thing we don't know is HOW LONG THE GAME WILL BE.  Twenty years....forty years....sixty years.

Those states and countries who drag their heels.....will be left behind...and will be at a distinct disadvantage.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2015, 02:06:03 AM
Huge natural gas leak from an underground California storage site is equivalent to 25% of California's methane emissions -- and likely won't be plugged for three months.

Massive natural gas storage leak alarms California residents, climate activists
Rupture at Aliso Canyon natural gas storage site has released the equivalent of 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Quote
It’s the climate equivalent of the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico: the rupture of a natural gas storage site in California that is spewing vast amounts of methane into the atmosphere and is likely to go unchecked for three months.

The breach of the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage site, near Porter Ranch has forced the relocation of hundreds of families, who complained of headaches, nosebleeds and nausea from the rotten-egg smell of the odorant added to the gas to aid in leak detection.

The leak, which was detected on 23 October, now accounts for at least a quarter of California’s emissions of methane – a far more powerful climate-altering gas than carbon dioxide.

Already, the ruptured storage facility has released well over the equivalent of 800,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide – about the same amount that would be generated by driving 160,000 cars for a year, according to the California Air Resources Board.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/california-natural-gas-leak-methane-climate-change-old-infrastructure (http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/california-natural-gas-leak-methane-climate-change-old-infrastructure)


The Invisible Spill Spewing the Gases of a Half-Million Cars
Quote
You can’t see it, but it’s there -- a steady stream of natural gas seeping out of a leaking well in Southern California that may spew as much greenhouse gas into the air as a half-million cars do in a year. Pipeline operator Sempra Energy says it may take three to four months to plug.

Using the same tactic that eventually ended the massive 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the San Diego-based utility owner is boring a well that’ll intercept the damaged one to stop the seepage. Meanwhile, it’s relocating hundreds of people into temporary housing as health officials say the gas is making some sick. The company faces as much as $900 million in costs such as relocation and legal expenses, based on government data and Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-05/the-invisible-spill-spewing-the-gases-of-a-half-million-cars (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-05/the-invisible-spill-spewing-the-gases-of-a-half-million-cars)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 07, 2015, 04:13:10 PM
Large oil and gas players (specifically Exxon and Chevron) continue their short term move DOWN.

XOM heading to the $60ish (give or take a couple bucks on each side) area.  Chevron (CVX) also heading to its $60ish area over the coming week(s) before it finds buying interest.

Keep in mind that the coming bounce is likely an INTERMEDIATE TERM BOUNCE OF 12 - 24 MONTHS.

AFTER THAT BOUNCE HAS ENDED.....both are in SERIOUS TECHNICAL TROUBLE.  And this just "happens" to coincide with all the FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES with oil and gas.

Look for Goldman Sachs and others (who don't have a conscience) to talk just the opposite.  For instance....I expect Goldman to continue to talk DOWN OIL over the coming months...EVEN AFTER THEY BOTTOM.  And then in 18 months - 24 months from now after oil companies have PEAKED...expect Goldman and others to keep a BULLISH STAND (as the companies deteriorate).

FOX News:  "Where truth and journalism area dead."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on December 09, 2015, 08:25:04 AM
.
http://youtu.be/aannOZw2shY (http://youtu.be/aannOZw2shY)

As Peter Sinclair wrote; "The most sickening story of the millenium."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2015, 02:43:14 AM
Quote
...natural gas, down 5.5 percent so far this week on warm weather...

...West Texas Intermediate oil futures for January finished at $37.16 per barrel, down 35 cents. Since Friday, when OPEC chose to maintain market-based pricing, oil is down more than 11 percent.
...
 "[Oil has] gone through $40 so convincingly that a lot of people are talking about $25," he said.
...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/oil-pressure-keeps-rising-on-markets.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/09/oil-pressure-keeps-rising-on-markets.html)

Texas messes with oil market, diesel glut weighs on price
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/07/el-nino-joins-forces-with-opec-to-clobber-energy-prices.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/07/el-nino-joins-forces-with-opec-to-clobber-energy-prices.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2015, 02:40:13 AM
IEA Sees Oil Glut Lasting to Late 2016 as OPEC Keeps Pumping
Quote
The global oil surplus will persist at least until late 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC shows “renewed determination” to maximize output, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, by effectively dropping production limits at its Dec. 4 meeting, is displaying hardened resolve to maintain sales volumes even as prices fall in an oversupplied market, the agency said Friday in its monthly report. While its policy is hitting rivals, triggering the steepest drop in non-OPEC supply since 1992, world oil inventories will likely swell further once Iran restores exports on the completion of a deal to lift sanctions, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2015, 02:58:03 AM
The USGS time lapse animation of Oklahoma earthquakes at the bottom of the article is awesome.

This One Suit Could Take Down Oklahoma’s Oil And Gas Industry
Quote
“You, the industry, needs to pay the cost of your operations,” Geis said. “If that turns out to be uneconomical, than you need to rethink your economic model.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/11/3730531/oil-gas-doesnt-want-to-pay-for-earthquake-damage/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/11/3730531/oil-gas-doesnt-want-to-pay-for-earthquake-damage/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 12, 2015, 02:30:20 PM
IEA Sees Oil Glut Lasting to Late 2016 as OPEC Keeps Pumping
Quote
The global oil surplus will persist at least until late 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC shows “renewed determination” to maximize output, according to the International Energy Agency.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, by effectively dropping production limits at its Dec. 4 meeting, is displaying hardened resolve to maintain sales volumes even as prices fall in an oversupplied market, the agency said Friday in its monthly report. While its policy is hitting rivals, triggering the steepest drop in non-OPEC supply since 1992, world oil inventories will likely swell further once Iran restores exports on the completion of a deal to lift sanctions, it said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/iea-sees-oil-glut-lasting-until-late-2016-as-opec-keeps-pumping)

Yeah, gas down to $1.83/gal at my local pump. Oil consumption here in the US is up almost 1 million barrels per day over 2-3 years ago (back near 20Mbpd) and miles traveled is back on its pre-recession growth trend. Definitely feeling the increase in road congestion again here in St. Louis.

Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 12, 2015, 02:50:08 PM
"Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet."

From the article below.....you can see that Ford is DVIING into electric cars 4.5 billion dollars of more investment.  The tide has QUICKLY CHANGED in the auto industry....and those not changing quickly enough will vanish.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/ (http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/)

Of course...the effect will be for more miles driven.....at a much greater efficiency....and less and less oil and gas used.  This is going to be the slow death of the oil and gas companies.....just like the coal companies.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Csnavywx on December 12, 2015, 04:27:46 PM
"Edit: Efficiency up too, as miles driven is now greater than the pre-recession value, but oil consumption hasn't caught up to the peak yet."

From the article below.....you can see that Ford is DVIING into electric cars 4.5 billion dollars of more investment.  The tide has QUICKLY CHANGED in the auto industry....and those not changing quickly enough will vanish.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/ (http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/ford-electric-vehicles-investment/)

Of course...the effect will be for more miles driven.....at a much greater efficiency....and less and less oil and gas used.  This is going to be the slow death of the oil and gas companies.....just like the coal companies.

Yeah, some investment there (4.5 billion isn't exactly a lot though -- even though it sounds like big money). EV sales have flagged badly over the past 2 years (except the high-end luxury EV market), so investment will be limited in the short-to-medium term until gas goes back up.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 12, 2015, 06:45:07 PM
Quote
Yeah, some investment there (4.5 billion isn't exactly a lot though -- even though it sounds like big money). EV sales have flagged badly over the past 2 years (except the high-end luxury EV market), so investment will be limited in the short-to-medium term until gas goes back up.

Two things ARE happening....and will continue to happen:

1)  Battery costs will continue to PLUMMET.  Tesla will start producing in their "gigafactory" (ie about 1 mile by 1/2 mile BIG) in early 2017.

2)  Likely more countries will put a "price" on carbon (ie China).

There are too many things now working against fossil fuels.....and momentum has swung and is in the rear view mirror.  Of course....this is NOT the type of change that happens overnight...and fossil fuel companies will string this out as long as they can.  But momentum has swung BIG TIME...and will continue to swing in coming months and years (not decades).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 12, 2015, 08:21:46 PM
Here's a video clip from Climatecrocks.com with Jason Box speaking about the Exxon cover-up.

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/12/jason-box-interviewed-in-paris/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/12/jason-box-interviewed-in-paris/)

Will be interesting to see HOW Exxon (and other large fossil fuel companies) "spin" the Paris agreement...and will also be interesting to watch Exxon (and others) play out in the stock market over coming years.

Anyone remember Wang Computer?  How about the camera company Polaroid or Kodak?  Three different companies in two different industries that "didn't see it coming.  Many..if not MOST...of the fossil fuel companies will end up like that.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 14, 2015, 02:00:34 PM
Looking for the weekend agreement in Paris to likely be a good "nudge" for energy stocks DOWN over the next couple of weeks.  Again....I expect THREE THINGS to happen:  (1)  short term energy stocks will go down until they find "enough buyers" (2)  intermediate term....I expect them to bounce...and maybe "bounce" up for 12 - 24 months.  As they do so...."smart money" will be selling (3) After any intermediate term bounce in energy stocks of 12 - 24 months.....THEY WILL GET ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED.

During the intermediate term bounce UP.....and especially towards the end of that bounce UP....I expect Goldman Sachs and other investment banks to be bullish on them (as they prepare to SHORT THEM).  They are.....to steal a line from a movie....."dead men walking".

I expect Exxon and Chevron to go down to 60ish (high 50's to low s60's) over the coming week or two.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: silkman on December 14, 2015, 02:57:45 PM
Not much sign of a significant negative response for carbon stocks on the FTSE with BP, Shell and BHP Billiton all off around 2% at lunchtime in a flat market.

Not too much coverage in the financial press over the weekend either.

That said, UK traded coal stocks have already been hammered extremely hard. The writing is already on the wall for them.


Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 14, 2015, 08:21:28 PM
In the US markets.....solar is "on fire" today:

SCTY up 10%
RUN up 17%
SPWR up 11%
TAN (etf) up 6%

Chevron and Exxon are up slightly.....but they are heading for a short term cliff.  keep in mind...that Chevron, Exxon, and the other BIG oil players pay dividends......and "this" (the news in Paris) is just an ANNOUNCEMENT.  But there is NO INTEREST OF NET BUYERS WANTING TO BUY OIL STOCKS.  Keep in mind.....we are looking at FURTHER DIVESTITURES by state and private pension funds.

This is going to a LONG AND PAINFUL PROCESS FOR ANYONE HOLDING BIG OIL STOCK.

Short term.....(next couple weeks).....I see big oil heading south until things get BEARISH ENOUGH THAT THEY RUN OUT OF SELLERS IN THE SHORT TERM.  Then.....likely to get a bounce of 12 - 18 months (which investors will be selling into).

Fun times........ 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 14, 2015, 08:28:39 PM
Almost the more interesting thing (from a finance standpoint) is the BANKS.  Banks have a LOT of debt (loans) to oil and gas companies.  And the banks have NOT as yet "reserved" enough on their balance sheets for FUTURE NONPAYMENT from some of the oil and gas entities for future bad debt (especially small and medium sized "frackers" in the US).

Banks are down today in the US....and I expect they will be down over the next few months as the market realizes (and banks confess) that they are UNDER-RESERVED for losses from the oil and gas sector.

Watch JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank....etc.  I expect them to get spanked over the coming weeks and months for oil and gas issues.

Fascinating times...



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 15, 2015, 10:01:01 PM
Interesting article below discusses the oil and gas markets....and a "deal" between the Democrats and Republicans in the US regarding the EXPORT of oil from the US, in EXCHANGE for a continuation of the renewable energy tax credit PAST 2016.

A continuation of the renewable energy tax credit would be a big deal...

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Finally-Some-Good-News-For-The-US-Oil-Industry.html (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Finally-Some-Good-News-For-The-US-Oil-Industry.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 16, 2015, 02:39:59 PM
Looks like "Mr. Market" likes the possibility for the energy tax credit for renewable energy sources to be extended in the US.

The renewable energy stocks in the US (before the market opens) are up BIG.

The big oils are just slightly above flat.

Going forward (months and years).....we are going to see a "divergence".  For one to two years....the oils may go up (bounce) as the current imbalance (too much supply) plays itself out.  But the renewable stocks (SPWR, SEDG, TAN, FSLR, SCTY, etc) will greatly outperform.

Remember....those of us in the US are UNFORTUNATE ENOUGH to have absolute IDIOTS in our Congress that are basically "on the take" from fossil fuel companies.  Right now....Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are trying to get the Koch Brothers money in their corner for the presidential election next year....so they are having a competition to see who can bash global warming the most.

Thus....in the US....we are competitively BEHIND Europe and China in moving to renewable energy.  But I think the Genie is "too far out of the bottle"......and the stock market knows it.

In the US.....we are at about 4% of energy supplied by solar and wind.  That is going to go up HUGE OVER THE COMING DECADE.  HUGE....

By the way.....I have a QUESTION for some of you.  I am trying to find a BETTER AND FASTER WAY to pull data from the NOAA......"Daily Tools:  Daily Records Data" section of their website (link below).  I have pulled some of the data for the United States since 1930.....but I want to pull it from China, Brazil, Russia, and Australia as well.....but I DON'T want to do it LINE BY LINE...MONTH BY MONTH....like I had to do it for the US.  Is it possible for them to send FILES (an Excel file would be BEAUTIFUL) to me?  Some of you folks likely have some experience working with them....so I thought you might know.  Thanks in advance....

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records)

Here are two examples of the power point sheets I prepared from Excel files for the US:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_36.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_36.html)

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to_30.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to_30.html)

I'm in Georgia (US)....so sometimes I feel like I am in a "3rd world country)......
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 16, 2015, 04:29:55 PM
Report: Atlantic Drilling Would Offer $0 To States, Not $19 Billion
Quote
... A new report from the Center for a Blue Economy suggests that the southern Atlantic states — Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia — would see little to no benefit from offshore drilling, while putting a critical piece of their economies and lifestyles at risk.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/15/3732084/offshore-drilling-bad-deal-for-atlantic-states/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/15/3732084/offshore-drilling-bad-deal-for-atlantic-states/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2015, 02:48:11 AM
FAA creates "no-fly zone" over ongoing natural gas leak at gas storage facility near Los Angeles.
Article includes a video of the methane leak using a ITC-certified thermographer to see the usually invisible natural gas.

The Worst Gas Leak in California’s History Isn’t Close to Being Fixed
http://time.com/4149170/california-natural-gas-methane-leak/ (http://time.com/4149170/california-natural-gas-methane-leak/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2015, 03:36:41 AM
$100 Billion Evaporates as World's Worst Oil Major Plunges 90%

- Ecopetrol's oil production has fallen short of forecasts
- Investors have soured on company once worth more than BP

Quote
Colombia is nursing paper losses of more than $100 billion after its oil boom fell short of expectations, wiping out 90 percent of the value of what was once Latin America’s biggest company.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/-100-billion-evaporates-as-world-s-worst-oil-major-plunges-90- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-16/-100-billion-evaporates-as-world-s-worst-oil-major-plunges-90-)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2015, 05:10:41 PM
On page 1,855 of the U.S Congress' budget bill, Republicans, at 2am, added a permanent lift on the export ban of U.S. oil -- as trade-off for adding 5 more years of subsidies for solar and wind.

Markey: Lifting Oil Export Ban Would be Big Christmas Present for Big Oil, Dec. 15, 2015
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x9FqR4t52tM (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=x9FqR4t52tM)

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/congress-strikes-deal-to-extend-wind-solar-tax-credits-and-lift-oil-export/410947/ (http://www.utilitydive.com/news/congress-strikes-deal-to-extend-wind-solar-tax-credits-and-lift-oil-export/410947/)


"U.S. shale drillers will soon be able to sell their oil all over the world. Too bad no one needs it right now."
Quote
We have to have an outlet for our crude,” ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said during an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. U.S. oil has fetched a lower price than international crude because it’s been “trapped” by the export ban, he said.

Oil producers, rig owners, drill-bit manufacturers and oilfield service providers around the world have been canceling exploration projects, reducing budgets and firing hundreds of thousands of workers to cope with the worst price slump in a generation.

Still Limping

Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday that it expects the industry to continue limping at least through 2017 as weak cash flows discourage drilling and the declining values for oil and gas fields make asset sales less effective tools to generate cash.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/shale-drillers-are-now-free-to-export-u-s-oil-into-global-glut (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-17/shale-drillers-are-now-free-to-export-u-s-oil-into-global-glut)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 18, 2015, 12:02:16 PM
Oil's bleak future.....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-chanos-dark-warning-opec-224950587.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jim-chanos-dark-warning-opec-224950587.html)

My how times change quickly.....:)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 18, 2015, 01:06:35 PM
Put yourself in the shoes of an oil and gas executive (which means you have no morals...and you could care less about society).

You have an asset in the ground.....that is losing value the longer it stays in the ground...because the world is moving away from fossil fuels.  Do you...(a) hope that its value increases in the future or (b) suck as much out as possible....because you know the value in the future is going to diminish?

THAT....seems to be where the problem lies right now.  And we have many of the oil countries of the middle east already moving to solar.

This is NOT a pretty picture for (1)  middle eastern oil countries (2) Russia (3) states in the US reliant on coal/oil/gas like North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma.

Watch for banks to come under increasing pressure in the months ahead....especially any of the larger banks that have a high percentage of oil and gas loans outstanding.  Bank regulators will be watching closely to make sure those banks "reserve" enough on their balance sheets for loans on their books that will "go bad" in the future (future bad debts).  The scrutiny of the banks has already started in the equity markets for publicly held companies....as noted in the article just posted about Jim Chanos.



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: crandles on December 18, 2015, 04:05:53 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/16/new-form-climate-denialism-dont-celebrate-yet-cop-21 (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/16/new-form-climate-denialism-dont-celebrate-yet-cop-21)

Discusses a new form of denialism.

However, there was also this

Quote
And here, there are some interesting facts that most people don’t know. In a recent study that I did with my colleague Richard Heede, we examined the potential impact of using the proven reserves of fossil fuels in the world. We discovered a surprising fact: if all the reserves in the hands of investor-owned companies were to be burned, we would not exceed the 2C (3.6F) target.

What puts the world at risk are the reserves in the hands of nation-states – which are mostly coal – and the continued exploration for more oil and gas by private companies like Exxon-Mobil, Chevron, BP and Shell.

based on
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300637 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378015300637)

Quote
Scientists have argued that no more than 275 GtC (IPCC, 2013) of the world’s reserves of fossil fuels of 746 GtC can be produced in this century if the world is to restrict anthropogenic climate change to ≤2 °C. This has raised concerns about the risk of these reserves becoming “stranded assets” and creating a dangerous “carbon bubble” with serious impacts on global financial markets, leading in turn to discussions of appropriate investor and consumer actions. However, previous studies have not always clearly distinguished between reserves and resources, nor differentiated reserves held by investor-owned and state-owned companies with the capital, infrastructure, and capacity to develop them in the short term from those held by nation-states that may or may not have such capacity.

given that the majority of the world's reserves are coal resources owned by governments with little capacity to extract them in the near term, we suggest that the more immediate urgency lies with the private sector, and that investor and consumer pressure should focus on phasing out these companies’ on-going exploration programs.

Not really sure to what extent, if any, this should make us query any belief we might have about stranded assets and a dangerous carbon bubble affecting markets.

Seems to imply that if companies keep on spending significant amounts on exploration then yes we would get to a situation of having a problem with stranded assets. But why would we expect them to do that?

Quote
We focus on the seventy companies and eight government-run industries that produced 63% of the world’s fossil fuels from 1750 to 2010 (Heede, 2014), and have the technological and financial capacity to develop these reserves. While any reserve analysis is subject to uncertainty, we demonstrate that production of these reported reserves will result in emissions of 440 GtC of carbon dioxide, or 160% of the remaining 275 GtC carbon budget. Of the 440 GtC total, the 42 investor-owned oil, gas, and coal companies hold reserves with potential emissions of 44 GtC

44GtC seems surprisingly little. If that is representative of 63% of supply and the world is burning at a rate of 10 GtC a year, it suggests the companies reserves represent around 7 years supply. I can't imagine the rate of use falling to 0 over next 14 years in a straight line, so there doesn't appear to be a problem with company reserves being used. So if it isn't with company reserves, what is this asset bubble theory based on?

OTOH I do get impression this report may well be pushing a view that governments with reserves are not in a position to develop them in the short term. While possibly true as they suggest for a lot of coal, that doesn't seem like a description you would give to Saudi oil.



Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 20, 2015, 02:22:31 PM
Speaking of Saudi oil...  :)

Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince has privately outlined plans to reshape the economy to withstand low oil prices, sources said, in what could be the biggest policy shake-up since the kingdom's economy was last hurt by cheap oil over a decade ago.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/saudi-arabia-plans-major-economic-shake-amid-oil-slump-sources-n482731 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/saudi-arabia-plans-major-economic-shake-amid-oil-slump-sources-n482731)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: oren on December 20, 2015, 07:46:46 PM
I must say that the decline in oil price and in energy stocks shouldn't be cheered so quickly. As it happens, global oil consumption is on the rise, and the price of oil is dropping because supply is currently on an even faster rise (thanks to investments made when oil was above $100 a barrel).

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm (https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm)

 So the world APPEARS to be heading towards a transition away from fossil fuels and especially oil, but it really hasn't done so yet, and the lower oil price goes, the slower the transition will be. When you see oil price falling for several years while consumption is also falling consistently, then it's cheering time.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 21, 2015, 02:08:02 PM
Quote
I must say that the decline in oil price and in energy stocks shouldn't be cheered so quickly. As it happens, global oil consumption is on the rise

Although....I think the RATE of rise is on the decline....and that has to happen before the actual USE declines.

With increased economic activity in Africa....and now in what are normally considered "emerging markets" (much of Asia...eastern Europe, etc)....it will be interesting to see where actual use of oil goes over the next 5 years.

I do believe that oil has one more "run" left in it at some point.  As the price has dropped over the last 6 months....that should drive exploration DOWN....and that should set up oil for a run UP in price over the coming years.

This truly is a FANTASTIC ISSUE to watch play out from so many directions:
1)  Supply/demand
2)  Change in the entire energy comples
3)  Change in transportation systems and what powers them

In the LONG TERM oil from fossil fuels is dead....but the intermediate term swings could be ENORMOUS.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2015, 12:39:14 AM
U.S. East Coasters have changed their minds about offshore drilling.

As decision nears, opposition builds to offshore drilling along Atlantic Coast
Quote
The Obama administration is expected to finalize by early spring a plan that could allow limited oil and gas development off the coasts of four Southeastern states — Virginia, North and South Carolina, and Georgia. All four have heavily supported drilling in the past. But lately, resistance to the plan appears to be growing, particularly in coastal towns where politicians and business leaders are expressing doubts about whether oil and gas can deliver the economic benefits the industry’s backers claim.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/as-decision-nears-opposition-builds-to-offshore-drilling-along-atlantic-coast/2015/12/20/d438c856-a5c4-11e5-b53d-972e2751f433_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/as-decision-nears-opposition-builds-to-offshore-drilling-along-atlantic-coast/2015/12/20/d438c856-a5c4-11e5-b53d-972e2751f433_story.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 22, 2015, 01:54:50 PM
Solar and wind continue to get cheaper.....and cars are more and more going electric.  BAD COMBINATION if you are an oil and gas company.  Two good short videos...

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/21/guest-post-zachary-shahan-on-the-renewable-advantage/#more-28060 (http://climatecrocks.com/2015/12/21/guest-post-zachary-shahan-on-the-renewable-advantage/#more-28060)

Exxon (XOM) looks like it will have TWO PATHS to it's future stock performance.  Both of them horrible I'm afraid.  Either it finds a "bounce" at the $56 - 62ish range in the short term...and bounces up for 12 - 18 months towards $90ish.....OR.....it doesn't find a bounce in the short term till it gets to $47 - $55 range.....THEN bounces up to the $90 - $105ish range....and then collapses.

This is going to be one UGLY ending to an industry on Wall Street over the next 5 years (and its already been ugly.....but its going to get worse).  And no....I DON'T mean that XOM or Chevron or any other LARGE oil company is going bankrupt in the next 5 years.  I DO MEAN that Wall Street will NOT support its price in the market....and its stock price will collapse.  It will still run as an ongoing company for quite some time.  But it will get CRUSHED in the stock market.

The ONE THING I keep my eyes peeled for over the next several weeks to 3 months.....is the performance of the big banks.  They "appear" weak....and I'm wondering just how much exposure some of them have to oil and gas companies (via loans to them).  This "changing" of the energy complex is going to make some companies HUGE WINNERS....and others.....HUGE LOSERS.

For a finance geek.....this is about as interesting as it gets. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 22, 2015, 03:55:35 PM
Wild swings in the price of a commodity is a characteristic you will always see when supply is barely able to match demand. This is exactly what we are seeing in the liquid fuels market and we will continue to see this behavior into the future. While there will be big losers and winners and this will cause a great deal of financial havoc, it does not herald the death of the industry.

We are irrevocably stuck in this supply/demand dance with liquid fuels. When supply struggles, we will see huge spikes in the price of fuels which will allow the profitable exploitation of nonconventional sources. When the prices drop, we will see a shake out in the industry just as we are now witnessing with the shale oil and gas companies.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 22, 2015, 04:05:26 PM
There are some nonconventional sources of oil that i believe will die a quick death, regardless of the price. Tar sand oil is being shipped in massive trainloads from Canada to the refineries in northwest Indiana. The refineries are discovering that the caustic nature of this stuff is destroying valves and other portions of the refinery in as little as a year. These valves would normally last for 30 years with conventional oil. The costs of refining are skyrocketing and there is an increasing safety concern.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2015, 05:39:04 PM
The continued oversupply of oil suggests to me that demand is peaking.  Any rise in oil price now will only increase the drive toward renewables.

Oil prices keep falling — [these are the reasons] why
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/21/oil-prices-keep-falling-this-is-the-reason-why/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/12/21/oil-prices-keep-falling-this-is-the-reason-why/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 22, 2015, 06:11:47 PM
Quote
it does not herald the death of the industry

The "mismatch" of supply and demand in ANY INDUSTRY does not herald the death of the industry.  That is NOT why the fossil fuels industry is dying.  It is dying because:

1)  Solar, wind, and other RENEWABLE products are catching up in price (in some areas are now LESS than coal or nat gas).  Fossil fuels won't be able to compete because they are losing....and will ultimately lose altogether....the "cost game."

2)  People....primarily investors....are now "close enough to the end of the tunnel" to understand that the "light ahead" is a world without fossil fuels.  Wall Street will "hurry along" the process WITHIN 5 YEARS on the major oil companies.  The oil companies.....will continue to operate for a LONG TIME.  Some of them "morphing" into various other types of "energy" or "chemical" companies.  But the MEGATREND towards RENEWABLE will swallow up companies that don't make oil in a RENEWABLE fashion (several companies now make oil products from algae).

3)  Just like the tar sands of Canada......other fossil fuels are HORRIBLE FOR HUMANS.  And that "cost" is becoming all to clear (or in the case of China smog......"all to smoggy").

4) CO2.  Yes....our old friend CO2 is helping to kill the fossil fuel companies....ever so slowly....but ever so surely.  The world is starting to run walk away from fossil fuels.....and in the coming years.....that will turn into running away from fossil fuels....as the changes brought on by global warming become ever more obvius.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on December 22, 2015, 06:47:15 PM
Demand peaking?
Maybe I live in the wrong country?

First, I must update my previous post:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg66506.html#msg66506 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg66506.html#msg66506)
Sweden has now extended their subsidies on E85 to 2018. But the damage is already done.
http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/16/beskedet/ (http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/16/beskedet/) Use translate if you're interested.

And for the rest of our sales, they have increased.
http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/18/e85-forsaljningen-fortsatter-att-falla/ (http://spbi.se/blog/2015/12/18/e85-forsaljningen-fortsatter-att-falla/) Same advice as above.

In November, Petrol sales dropped by 1% compared to November last year. Total for the year up to and including November it dropped by 2%.
Diesel, including HVO, increased by 11%. Total for the year, an increase by 8%.
E85 dropped by 56%. Total for the year it dropped by 38%.
(Heating oil increased by 12%(?). Total for the year it dropped by 9%. )

I don't know the numbers for HVO, but it is a small part of the diesel sales. In total for the year the volume increase is 246800m³.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: folke_kelm on December 22, 2015, 09:01:58 PM
Yesterday the Göteborgs posten, gothenburgs regional newspaper published an article about swedens plans to buy electrical and hybrid bussesinstead of biogas driven vehicles. Most busses in Sweden nowadays are in fact driven by biogas.
This seems to be a matter of great concern to the producers of biogas. They see a total of 59% of their market vanish.
This is a way of one dimensional thinking. There are way more ways to use biogas and, for this case E85 than only for fuel for cars, busses and so on, but nobody in Sweden is thinking about it, not to name speaking about it.
In Germany there are plenty af small biogas driven power plants, biogas is not at all used as fuel but to generate electricity by demand. The huge advantage with biogas is, that you are able to produce electricity, when wind and solar do not generate, you are able to store it until you need it. The same is possible with E85, but that requires a different kind of thinking. Small is beautiful instead of the common big powerplants.
Why not install small generators at home, driven by biogas and/or E85, providing electricity  and heat for one household or small villages (in my case 16 houses)?

Sweden has still a very long way to go, still has to learn.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on December 23, 2015, 05:30:18 AM
Biogas needs careful attention. Cleaning the gas is a big deal, corrosion is a problem, and in colder climates, for some reason, people underestimate insulation needs on the digesters. Temperatures in the digester need monitored, as do a bunch of other parameters, and what you are feeding livestock is important. Unsurprisingly, if the pigs fall ill, so can your digester. Better monitor, for example, aflatoxin level in your supposedly clean feed, even if certified by USDA or other.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sleepy on December 23, 2015, 06:03:32 AM
There are problems with everything. But we do need to flip every stone out there and use what we have sensibly, with intelligence. Todays economic thinking is fossilzed. If we can't change that we're lost.

One intelligent use of HC:
We can use e.g. Propane, Propylene and Ethane in our heat pumps. That way we can get rid of a lot of those patented blends used today, I've personally been testing Propylene as a replacement for a air to air heat pump using r410a. The problem I ran into was that Ethane was ridiculously expensive here. Ethane is needed to raise the pressure to match r410a.

This is nothing new, we started using HC over a hundred years ago.
And here comes a twist, you can have better COP compared to patented blends...
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2015, 03:26:23 PM
Gazprom Is Losing Its Market Muscle
Competition forces the Russian energy giant to make nice.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/gazprom-is-losing-its-market-muscle (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/gazprom-is-losing-its-market-muscle)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2015, 05:24:26 PM
The Case for $20 Oil
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/12/26/the-case-for-20-oil/ (http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/12/26/the-case-for-20-oil/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 27, 2015, 07:09:58 PM
I guess I have to repeat a phrase I made in this blog a few years ago - with a little twist.

I said then that Coal is not dead and it is not dying.  These few years later we can probably say  - finally - that coal has caught a cold.  But, especially in light of the fact that while some thought Chinese coal consumption had dropped significantly they had actually hidden vastly higher coal consumption than reported from us and that our 'friends' in India intend to double coal consumption, it clearly is not dying still.

Oil is not sick and it is not dying either. 

Oil prices are likely to stay low for what now looks like at least a few years - some are saying much longer - and there is good reason to think this.  Demand is down not because folks are switching to renewables but due to the global economic turn down and a very high supply situation.  Supply is exacerbated by the Saudi attack on the frackers and other high cost producers, over drilling due to an excess of capital looking for returns, producers coming back on the market after political issues, and such.  Including tactics like this...which will increase available supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1)

One very important thing to keep in mind is that some misguided cheerleading that this situation will 'help' the rollout of renewables is just crazy talk.  This idea I guess is based upon the fantasy that there is going to be an assessment of the external costs of the use of fossil fuels upon the industry which will make them unaffordable or there will be some epiphany about the evils of their use - but this defies logic.  The tougher the economic or development situation is the more likely that the decision will be made to take the least cost option - and external costs have never been counted so far in that calculation.  And business will say 'Try and make me.'

Cheap oil (and other fossil fuels) will compete strongly with renewables in a host of situations and this will slow their deployment.  All one has to do is look at the automobile industry to see what effect low prices for oil is doing.  There is literally nothing happening in the oil and natural gas industries which would indicate that there will be a large drop in consumption anytime in the next 10-15 years.  Need I point out that, like the Paris farce, we simply are already out of time.

Minor progress is being made on coal consumption - very minor - but the danger is that as collapse progresses it fights against the elimination of coal use due to its very low costs and often nearby availability.  To give you an idea how people are about this I know an English guy who makes over $300K a year who likes to go hiking and fishing near his house.  The path he takes goes by an abandoned coal mine where there are large amounts of coal lying about still.  So he takes a backpack with him and fills it up on the way home to use in his wood/coal burning stove.  There are thousands of poor folks (and some not so poor) here in the US who do the equivalent and undoubtedly some millions globally who are in the same boat. 

Lastly, always keep in mind that you cannot solve any of the big problems we have as long as the population is growing rapidly and the economic systems are based upon endless growth and rising affluence. 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on December 28, 2015, 12:44:19 AM
I guess I have to repeat a phrase I made in this blog a few years ago - with a little twist.

I said then that Coal is not dead and it is not dying.  These few years later we can probably say  - finally - that coal has caught a cold.  But, especially in light of the fact that while some thought Chinese coal consumption had dropped significantly they had actually hidden vastly higher coal consumption than reported from us and that our 'friends' in India intend to double coal consumption, it clearly is not dying still.

Oil is not sick and it is not dying either. 

Oil prices are likely to stay low for what now looks like at least a few years - some are saying much longer - and there is good reason to think this.  Demand is down not because folks are switching to renewables but due to the global economic turn down and a very high supply situation.  Supply is exacerbated by the Saudi attack on the frackers and other high cost producers, over drilling due to an excess of capital looking for returns, producers coming back on the market after political issues, and such.  Including tactics like this...which will increase available supplies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/26/business/energy-environment/hoping-for-a-price-surge-oil-companies-keep-wells-in-reserve.html?ref=business&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&smtyp=cur&_r=1)

One very important thing to keep in mind is that some misguided cheerleading that this situation will 'help' the rollout of renewables is just crazy talk.  This idea I guess is based upon the fantasy that there is going to be an assessment of the external costs of the use of fossil fuels upon the industry which will make them unaffordable or there will be some epiphany about the evils of their use - but this defies logic.  The tougher the economic or development situation is the more likely that the decision will be made to take the least cost option - and external costs have never been counted so far in that calculation.  And business will say 'Try and make me.'

Cheap oil (and other fossil fuels) will compete strongly with renewables in a host of situations and this will slow their deployment.  All one has to do is look at the automobile industry to see what effect low prices for oil is doing.  There is literally nothing happening in the oil and natural gas industries which would indicate that there will be a large drop in consumption anytime in the next 10-15 years.  Need I point out that, like the Paris farce, we simply are already out of time.

Minor progress is being made on coal consumption - very minor - but the danger is that as collapse progresses it fights against the elimination of coal use due to its very low costs and often nearby availability.  To give you an idea how people are about this I know an English guy who makes over $300K a year who likes to go hiking and fishing near his house.  The path he takes goes by an abandoned coal mine where there are large amounts of coal lying about still.  So he takes a backpack with him and fills it up on the way home to use in his wood/coal burning stove.  There are thousands of poor folks (and some not so poor) here in the US who do the equivalent and undoubtedly some millions globally who are in the same boat. 

Lastly, always keep in mind that you cannot solve any of the big problems we have as long as the population is growing rapidly and the economic systems are based upon endless growth and rising affluence.

Very well said, but it seems that the current economic situation hints at us hitting the Seneca cliff soon, thus oil and coal will remain in the ground due to diminishing returns
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2015, 02:45:44 AM
Chickens are starting to come home to roost.  This is just the VERY BEGINNING of a VERY LONG PROCESS.  This is just round one.  The process won't get REALLY BAD for several more years....AFTER the oil price has bounced UP for a couple years....and then fall off the edge of a cliff.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO)

A couple weeks ago I had noted that banks will start to "set aside more loan reserves" for loans to mostly small but some mid sized oil and gas companies.  Well....they are starting to set aside those loan reserves now:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13405498/1/jpmorgan-citigroup-see-rising-toll-from-sour-energy-market.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2015, 02:52:22 AM
Here's a good article on coal.  The reason I am posting it here.....is because THIS is the future of oil and gas as well.  They will have to wait LONGER than coal....but that light at the end of their tunnel....IS INDEED A TRAIN.  If anyone likes what coal has done as an investment.....they are going to LOVE what oil and gas will be doing in the future:

https://news.vice.com/article/the-us-coal-industry-is-shuttering-mines-and-its-market-value-is-plummeting-says-a-new-study (https://news.vice.com/article/the-us-coal-industry-is-shuttering-mines-and-its-market-value-is-plummeting-says-a-new-study)

Anyone who thinks that coal....or oil....or natural gas.....have a good future, should love the linked video:

"It's only a flesh wound."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjEcj8KpuJw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjEcj8KpuJw)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2015, 12:42:50 PM
The article below lays out the problems that "frackers" have in this market....at the current price.  A few months ago...I thought oil might get into the high $20's.  I don't feel that way anymore....as production cuts appear poised to kick into high gear.

Interesting article...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/shale-s-running-out-of-survival-tricks-as-opec-ramps-up-pressure (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/shale-s-running-out-of-survival-tricks-as-opec-ramps-up-pressure)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on December 28, 2015, 12:47:28 PM
Must be the effect of demand destruction as Gail puts it http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/12/21/we-are-at-peak-oil-now-we-need-very-low-cost-energy-to-fix-it/ (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/12/21/we-are-at-peak-oil-now-we-need-very-low-cost-energy-to-fix-it/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 28, 2015, 01:19:36 PM
Scanned through Gails presentation briefly.  Will look into it more closely when I get time.  But one thing to consider.....and this is my OPINION (based on the facts that I see presently...AND project into the future).....is that electricity AND power in general will continue to get CHEAPER and CHEAPER in a growing world of renewable energy.

If you look at the cost curve over the past decade (cost to produce energy from solar or wind) it is STAGGERING.  And it is also one of the reasons (although not the primary reason right now) that the price of oil is so low.  Remember....prices are "set at the margin" (the proverbial "last user").  Even though renewables make up a small percentage of total use now....they are "nipping at the edges" of the fossil fuel market.  As the cost of production continue to DROP for solar and wind....that will only worsen the picture for oil and gas.

I am NOT an investment advisor....but two of the best investments for the next decade (in my mind) are renewable energy AND basic materials (the basic materials from miners that are needed to make wind and solar).

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on December 28, 2015, 06:11:07 PM

....I am NOT an investment advisor....but two of the best investments for the next decade (in my mind) are renewable energy AND basic materials (the basic materials from miners that are needed to make wind and solar).

And thus we see a perfect example of the wrong way to approach dealing with this existential problem.  The world is full of companies, investment advisers, BAU advocates, rich pukes, and the like who still think this is about making a dollar.  This is the same thought process which drags out for decades the use of fossil fuels.   Coal is going to be a major factor for at least another 20 years and oil/gas much longer than that - because one can make lots of money from them.  It is an extreme understatement to say if we allow that to happen it will be a disaster.  That light from the train you think you see just shows us how behind schedule the train is running.  It will arrive too late for us to board and make our desired destination.  BAU approaches will not work - that train left the station 20 years ago.  The old ways are dead and we will be too if we don't adapt to reality.

I always find it puzzling when folks think that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels.  And even more so when they extrapolate those cost curves out to infinity.  Much of the cost of renewable infrastructure is directly related to the cost of fossil fuels.  All the way from mine equipment, transportation of minerals, manufacturing materials, assembly, further transportation, installation and such.  Fossil fuels are a huge part of those costs and they have plummeted.  Moore's Law does not apply to renewable infrastructure.  A further huge boost to renewable infrastructure has been the huge subsidies put in place to create it from easy money being made available to blow economic bubbles and also direct tax credits. 

Even if one for some reason believes that we can run this global civilization completely on renewables (a bat shit crazy idea in my opinion - it is just head stuck in the sand BAU thinking) it is obvious that adding 2+ billion to the global population would have a huge negative impact on that idea.  Not to mention that such a change over would take decades to execute.  And that would be far too late in any case.

Renewable technology is not on the critical path to a solution to climate change, carrying capacity and over population.  It will be useful if we 'solve' those problems certainly, but we do a huge disservice to our chances of solving them when we encourage folks to assume there is an easy way out of the dilemma we are in.  We have never yet put serious effort towards the critical path issues and until we do we have no chance of solving the core problems.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2015, 12:19:36 AM
Saudis Plan Unprecedented Subsidy Cuts to Counter Oil Plunge
Quote
Confronting a drop in oil prices and mounting regional turmoil, Saudi Arabia reduced energy subsidies and allocated the biggest part of government spending in next year’s budget to defense and security.

Authorities announced increases to the prices of fuel, electricity and water as part of a plan to restructure subsidies within five years. The government intends to cut spending next year and gradually privatize some state-owned entities and introduce value-added taxation as well as a levy on tobacco.
...
“This is the beginning of the end of the era of free money,” said Ghanem Nuseibeh, founder of London-based consulting firm Cornerstone Global Associates. “Saudi society will have to get used to a new way of working with the government. This is a wake-up call for both Saudi society and the government that things are changing.”
...
The new measures are the beginning of a “big program that the economic council will launch,” Economy and Planning Minister Adel Fakeih told reporters in Riyadh. The subsidy cuts won’t have a “large effect” on people with low or middle income, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/saudis-plan-unprecedented-subsidy-cuts-to-counter-oil-plunge-iiqbmg4x (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-28/saudis-plan-unprecedented-subsidy-cuts-to-counter-oil-plunge-iiqbmg4x)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on December 29, 2015, 05:29:49 AM
The House of Saud totters again. The princeling has an expensive war, and the king has his imported slave populations to worry about ... and they will bear the brunt of the subsidy cuts. Not to mention the Shia.

sidd
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on December 29, 2015, 02:16:02 PM
First off....you really should READ MY POST BEFORE commenting on it.  That would be a big help.  I don't say that to be "snippy".  After reading your post CLOSELY....I really don't know WHERE you got some of your comments.  It certainly WASN'T anything I said in that post...or any other post of mine.

Quote
And thus we see a perfect example of the wrong way to approach dealing with this existential problem.  The world is full of companies, investment advisers, BAU advocates, rich pukes, and the like who still think this is about making a dollar.  This is the same thought process which drags out for decades the use of fossil fuels.

I'll TRY to answer this....but your comment is very "vague"...and I have no idea WHICH "existential problem" you are talking about.  Are you talking about over population?  Are you talking about not enough food?  Not enough water?  Not enough energy?  All of the above?  Are you going to make me guess?  Could you be any more vague?

The only "large issue" I was commenting on was the DIRECTION OF ENERGY PRODUCTION (a decrease in fossil fuels....and an increase in renewable energy).  By the way....if you DON'T think that renewable energy is the answer....then you have a REALLY, REALLY, short time line.  If renewables is NOT the answer.....then earth can continue "business as usual" (BAU) and check out in 150 years or so.  That is NOT something I would propose.

Oh....and the "rich pukes"....that was sweet:)  I come from a mid/lower income family.  I always bought my own car.  Went to work at 6 am in the morning BEFORE high school started so I could afford my own car, insurance, and gas....all of which I PAID FOR.  I also paid MY OWN WAY through college....yes it took me 5 years....but I paid for all of it myself.  You see....I really AM a "fiscal conservative"....and a social moderate.  Thus....I am an Independent voter.  And no...I am not a "rich puke".  Sorry to saw off the limb you so quickly climbed out on.

Quote
Coal is going to be a major factor for at least another 20 years and oil/gas much longer than that - because one can make lots of money from them.  It is an extreme understatement to say if we allow that to happen it will be a disaster.

Glad to see that you have BACKED OFF your thoughts of coal being in significant use for "many decades"....down to 2.  THAT is real progress:).  But unfortunately.....coal will be around for a lot longer than I would like (two days is two days too many).  Yes...coal will be around in Asia for a lot longer than in the US.  As an INDEPENDENT VOTER....I encourage EVERYONE in the US to vote for whoever is the democratic candidate next year....because ALL THE REPUBLICANS want to do away with the EPA....and keep BIG COAL AROUND AS LONG AS THEY CAN.  THAT...would not be a good thing. VOTE...VOTE...VOTE. 

Coal use in the US has dropped from 50% 5 years ago to 30% now....and it continues to DROP LIKE A ROCK.  That is also progress.  It also looks like China "may have" peaked in its coal use.  THAT...is good news if it is indeed the case.

Quote
That light from the train you think you see just shows us how behind schedule the train is running.  It will arrive too late for us to board and make our desired destination.  BAU approaches will not work - that train left the station 20 years ago.  The old ways are dead and we will be too if we don't adapt to reality.

That "light from the train" I see.....is the light from the train that is GOING TO RUN OVER FOSSIL FUELS (again...read the post).  BAU would be:  Keep using coal, keep using nat gas, keep using oil, and by all means DON'T use many renewables.  THAT...is BAU.  And THAT...would NOT be a good thing.

Quote
I always find it puzzling when folks think that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels.  And even more so when they extrapolate those cost curves out to infinity.  Much of the cost of renewable infrastructure is directly related to the cost of fossil fuels.  All the way from mine equipment, transportation of minerals, manufacturing materials, assembly, further transportation, installation and such.  Fossil fuels are a huge part of those costs and they have plummeted.  Moore's Law does not apply to renewable infrastructure.  A further huge boost to renewable infrastructure has been the huge subsidies put in place to create it from easy money being made available to blow economic bubbles and also direct tax credits.
 

Where in the world did you come up with me thinking that the cost of renewables are independent of fossil fuels?  ESPECIALLY WHEN I SAID THAT COST WILL ULTIMATELY KILL FOSSIL FUELS.  That's a head scratcher.

COST IS CLEARLY a HUGE deal between fossil fuels and renewables.  HUGE.  And it is going to KILL FOSSIL FUELS.  Look back ten years to see where renewables were.  Now....extrapolate forward another 10 years (even using a SMALLER annual decreases).  FOSSIL FUELS ARE GOING TO GET KILLED ON PRICE/COST.  Can I say it any more clearly than that?  THAT...is not "BAU".

Keep in mind....that FOSSIL FUELS gets a LOT MORE INCENTIVES than renewables.  If I were king (King Donald Trump?....yikkkkes).....I would have a "fee and dividend" system like that proposed by Dr. Hansen.  In other words....more "fully price" actual COST of fossil fuels.  Yes...fossil fuels ARE USED for mining (now...but NOT in the distant future).  Fossil fuels are GOING AWAY.  We can quibble over how long that will take....but they ARE GOING AWAY.

Quote
Even if one for some reason one believes that we can run this global civilization completely on renewables (a bat shit crazy idea in my opinion - it is just head stuck in the sand BAU thinking) it is obvious that adding 2+ billion to the global population would have a huge negative impact on that idea.  Not to mention that such a change over would take decades to execute.  And that would be far too late in any case.

I have some disappointing news for you:  If this "global civilization" CAN'T run on renewables at some point in the future....we.....BY DEFINITION...... ARE TOAST.  That apparently comes as a news flash to you.  Sorry to ruin your day.  Since we have burned through millions of years of fossil fuels....in only a couple hundred years....the math is NOT in favor of using fossil fuels for much longer:)  Mankind is VERY YOUNG....and VERY STUPID (remember....Donald Trump IS leading the Republican Party...need I say more how stupid we American's are?).

Fortunately.....there are many companies that NOW PRODUCE some "oils" in a renewable process (from algae).  In fact....the whole ENERGY SECTOR is FULL of companies trying all sorts of things.  In 50 years.....people will look back at the "renewables" we are now using and they will likely look like "wale oil" (incredibly outdated).  Should be have started on this journey back in the 1960's when a group of scientists warned US President Lyndon Johnson of the future dangers?  Yes.  Should be have started in 1988 when Dr. Hansen warned the US Congress of the future dangers?  Yes.  Should be have started in the early 1990's when the United Nations first warned the world?  Yes.  Should we work hard NOW even though there is a FAKE NEWS CHANNEL (FOX NEWS) that WE ALLOW to lie and mislead about the dangers of global warming for the last 25 years?  HELL YES.

Quote
Renewable technology is not on the critical path to a solution to climate change, carrying capacity and over population.  It will be useful if we 'solve' those problems certainly, but we do a huge disservice to our chances of solving them when we encourage folks to assume there is an easy way out of the dilemma we are in.  We have never yet put serious effort towards the critical path issues and until we do we have no chance of solving the core problems.

Renewable technology IS indeed....ONE of the solutions to climate change and carrying capacity.  It is NOT a solution for over population (unless we can get the solar panels to somehow magically disperse IUD's or condoms or birth control pills to the like of Bristol Palin and everyone else:).

Over population IS the 64,000 pound gorilla that NOBODY wants to talk about:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/world-population-70000-bc-to-2010.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/world-population-70000-bc-to-2010.html)

I put that chart on my website FOR A REASON.  People SHOULD BE terrified at the population of earth NOW....and HORRIFIED by increasing it.

There are MANY ISSUES that I did NOT deal with in my last post....the one that you commented on.  Maybe you were having a "bad day".  Maybe your soccer team lost.  I have no idea.  I also have NO IDEA where you got some of the things you "thought" I said....or am (sorry to disappoint you IF you though I am a "rich puke":)

Humanity has to deal with a LOT of things for us humans to advance as a CIVILIATION (being "civilized"....in our communication would be a "good start").

The issues we face are many:  (1) population is likely the biggest (2) global warming (3) income inequality (the economic systems have a LONG WAY TO GO.......the "incentives" and "disincentives" are NOT well aligned (4) EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION (humans are HORRIBLE at it), (5) better legal system, etc...etc...etc.   The ONLY issue I was dealing with was the DEATH OF FOSSIL FUELS....and the RISE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY (in MANY FORMS).
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2015, 12:39:58 AM
At long last:  Oil subsidy cuts!

Quote
The Saudi government posted a record budget deficit of $98 billion Monday before announcing cuts to the gas subsidy that went into effect Tuesday, as well as plans to privatize state corporations and slash other subsidies. The government provided about $11 billion in pre-tax gasoline subsidies this year, according to the International Monetary Fund,

Angola also reduced subsidies this year, cutting them entirely in May to save an estimated 4 percent of the country's budget. Egypt, Gabon, Bangladesh, UAE, Oman and Indonesia also approved deep cuts to or abolished subsidies this year. Yemen, Malaysia, Libya and Iran made cuts last year.

Other countries may simply opt not to pass on savings from lower oil costs to citizens — as may be the case in Guyana, according to local media.

The cuts could be the death knell for the once-common public energy subsidy. While the falling oil prices may have forced the issue, many countries had plans to reduce the benefit over time. Experts have long criticized such subsidies for regressively benefiting the highest earners, encouraging waste and displacing other social programs.

"Falling oil prices could make sure reforms both more urgent and, possibly, politically easier to implement," the IMF said in a report this year.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/where-gasoline-prices-are-going-up-as-oil-falls.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/30/where-gasoline-prices-are-going-up-as-oil-falls.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2015, 05:03:42 PM
Bill McKibben: "Next shoe drops in #exxonknew scandal--they calculated sea level rise into their new facilities, while denying it"
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/682546875795390464 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/682546875795390464)

Big Oil braced for global warming while it fought regulations
http://graphics.latimes.com/oil-operations/ (http://graphics.latimes.com/oil-operations/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2015, 05:24:55 PM
Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse
Quote
- Pipeline, terminals near St. Louis shut before expected flood
- Ozark shutdown seen adding to record Cushing oil supplies

The worst flooding across the U.S. Midwest in four years has shut some oil pipelines and terminals near St. Louis, potentially swelling a glut of crude and extending this year’s price slide.

Five miles of the Mississippi River and 50 miles of the Illinois River have been shut, according to the U.S. Coast Guard website. The flooding is the worst since May 2011, when rising water on the Mississippi and its tributaries threatened refinery and chemical operations and disrupted shipping.

So far, the biggest shutdown is Enbridge Inc.’s Ozark oil pipeline, which was booked to carry about 200,000 barrels a day this month to Wood River, Illinois, from Cushing, Oklahoma. The outage of the section under the Mississippi River may further add to stockpiles at Cushing that reached a record high last week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/floods-shutting-midwest-oil-pipeline-seen-worsening-record-glut (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/floods-shutting-midwest-oil-pipeline-seen-worsening-record-glut)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2016, 03:48:06 PM
Buddy

As a general rule I don't read any of your posts BECAUSE YOU TALK IN CAPITALS all the time (which any one can tell you is one of the most unacceptable behaviors in internet communications).  And if I do start to read one I almost always stop when I hit the first set of CAPITALS.  So that should tell you a lot.  In your latest message I made it to the point where you started screaming once again so I don't know what other is below that has you so excited that you can't help screaming again.  There might even be something worth responding too, I kind of doubt it though, and I am not going to read posts like that to find out.

In general I don't read posts from authors who write like you do nor posts from those who have a history of not providing analysis and substantive comment.  It is not worth my time.

I presume that you are all excited by some comment of mine heaping scorn upon the Green BAU faiths.  Well rest assured if that is the case it is not going to stop.  Such adherents are just as dangerous for humanity as the purveyors of fossil fuel addiction.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 03, 2016, 04:09:49 PM
Jim D:

Good.  It seems we are of like minds about the other.  That makes things very easy.

You will have a much easier time finding the truth....if you LOOK FOR IT (caps..:)....for emphasis).

Have a great day.....

Buddy
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2016, 04:12:58 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/01/wolf-richter-americas-largest-utility-jacks-up-rates-the-most-since-2006-despite-total-collapse-of-natural-gas-prices.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/01/wolf-richter-americas-largest-utility-jacks-up-rates-the-most-since-2006-despite-total-collapse-of-natural-gas-prices.html)

Two aspects of the power generation business are displayed here.  One is the incredible costs of building and maintaining the systems.  Note how this plays into the net metering debate.  As those better off install rooftop solar it pushes more and more of the costs to those less well off.  This gives power to those arguing for less advantageous net metering rates.  While one can argue that the subsidy entailed in the net metering rates is beneficial to the growth of the solar industry the result of how it is set, like many fees and taxes, it falls disproportionaly on the less well off.  This gives a lot of political power to those getting their salaries from the black BAU crowd.

Another issue it demonstrates is the inherent problem of having private ownership of utilities and their focus on profits and rent extraction - which in utilities cases in the US are guaranteed and managed in a govt/corporate partnership.  Corruption is endemic and those in government making the decisions are frequently large beneficiaries of campaign contributions, jobs and other perks. 

To sort this situation out would require extensive amounts of time and a change of the way we do business.  Time we do not have and the prospect of changing the way we run this country is not in the cards either.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2016, 05:00:35 PM
With the US/EU centric view of what is going on in the world holding sway most times it is good to take a look at what low oil prices are doing to the commodity producing countries.  It is not so rosy and the effects of how these countries manage - or not- will ripple throughout the world.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/30/oil-iran-saudi-arabia-russia-venezuela-nigeria-libya (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/30/oil-iran-saudi-arabia-russia-venezuela-nigeria-libya)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-executes-47-sheikh-nimr-shiite-cleric.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-executes-47-sheikh-nimr-shiite-cleric.html)

Dramatically increasing poverty, civil war, regular war, etc.  Needless to say none of the outcomes of this situation will promote dealing with climate change.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 04, 2016, 09:51:46 PM
Big oil to cut investment again in 2016
Quote
This will be the first time since the 1986 oil price downturn that we see two consecutive years of a decline in investments," Bjoernar Tonhaugen, vice president of oil and gas markets at Rystad Energy, told Reuters.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0UH0AB20160103 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0UH0AB20160103)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 04, 2016, 11:50:43 PM
Tom Kloza on oil prices in 2016.  Good short video.  If want to know where oil price is LIKELY to end up...Kloza is "thee guy" to follow:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000471004 (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000471004)

He expects a "bottom" in the low $30's within the next 2 - 3 months.  Then expects oil prices to rise to "about $55" by the end of 2016.

By the way.....the rumblings are getting "louder" for a "possible US recession" this year.  If we see some more "weakfish" numbers like:  (1) slightly increased US job layoffs over next couple of months (2) any additional increase in oil inventory's, (3) continued weak numbers in China....etc...then that could push oil to the low $30's number that Kloza is looking for.



 

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 06, 2016, 01:01:41 AM
Per the linked article tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran could drive crude oil prices as low as $18/barrel as the two countries sustain high production/export rates to put pressure on the other country:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/oil-may-hit-18-amid-saudi-iran-tensions-kilduff.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/04/oil-may-hit-18-amid-saudi-iran-tensions-kilduff.html)

Extract: "Oil prices could break below $20 this year as tensions rise between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the world's largest oil players, Again Capital founding partner John Kilduff said Monday."

See also:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/ (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/)

Extract: "Rising tensions in the Middle East typically trigger a knee-jerk increase in the price of oil. But these are not typical times for the oil market. With several factors already weighing on the price of oil, increasing frictions in this historically tumultuous region are poised to counter-intuitively exacerbate the negative outlook for oil."
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 06, 2016, 01:05:53 PM
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9441 (http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9441)

Mr. Market (the stock market) is having a rough beginning of the year....and I suspect it will have a rough 9 months or so from here.

What is interesting to me.....and relevant to this subject....is what oil and gas companies will be doing the next 3 months, 9 months, and roughly 3 years.

Many of you folks know better than I.....what fossil fuels has meant to real estate, especially in Australia and Canada.  As natural resources have continued to get hammered (commodities as a "bundle" have dropped for the last 4 years and 9 months....led by mining companies)....that has weakened the real estate markets in both Canada, Australia, and now in the upper Midwest of the US (especially North Dakota).

I suspect that banks will have a rough year.....again pressured by the demise of smaller natural resource companies (both oil and gas....as well as mining).

The price of homes could get a real "bush whacking" in Vancouver, Calgary, Melbourne, Sydney, etc.  It is the continued "unwinding" of the commodity market....and will affect those that are using debt in the real estate market.  The boom in both Australia and Canada was fueled by the "bull run" in commodities....and now that is unwinding.  That is why I believe the banks....and the market overall....will be significantly tested over the next 9 months.

In Canada....Calgary was the first market to weaken....and now I believe the others will follow. I have no idea HOW FAR housing prices will fall...but it definitely "looks" like they are at that inflection point in Canada (they have already crossed it in Calgary).

There was a lot of Asian money going into real estate in both the US and Canada (especially Vancouver)....and with Asia "on the ropes" this year....that will likely dry up and affect demand.

 
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 06, 2016, 04:49:01 PM
Dividend cuts are likely coming to Exxon and Chevron (and likely most big oil companies).  Who is going to blink first?

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e85e402e-9da2-11e5-8ce1-f6219b685d74.html#axzz3wTnft2bT (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e85e402e-9da2-11e5-8ce1-f6219b685d74.html#axzz3wTnft2bT)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 07, 2016, 04:03:38 PM
Quote
U.S. oil futures in New York slid to the lowest in 12 years as turmoil in China’s markets pushes crude closer to $30 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 5.5 percent on concern that the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest commodity consumer is worsening. China’s central bank cut the yuan’s reference rate by the most since August, triggering a selloff that led to the closure of Chinese stock exchanges. Brent oil will slump to $30 in the next 10 days, Nomura Holdings Inc. said, while UBS Group AG sees oversupply pushing prices even lower.....

the average price for which OPEC members sell their crude fell below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2004, while spot prices for Western Canadian Select fell as low as $19.81 a barrel on Wednesday, the lowest since tracking began in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.....



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/oil-trades-near-34-as-record-cushing-stockpiles-exacerbate-glut (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/oil-trades-near-34-as-record-cushing-stockpiles-exacerbate-glut)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on January 07, 2016, 08:26:28 PM
New post by Gail Tverberg concerning oil prices.

What is notable is that she sees oil oversupply affecting prices fully either by 2016, or 2017/18.

http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/ (http://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/01/07/2016-oil-limits-and-the-end-of-the-debt-supercycle/)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2016, 08:28:01 PM
Update on the California natural gas leak.

Governor Declares Emergency Over Los Angeles Gas Leak
Quote
Unlike some other wells, the leaking well did not have an subsurface safety valve.

Though not required by state regulators, such a valve could have stopped the leak quickly, and calls for reform have followed.

In his emergency declaration, Mr. Brown said he was ordering an investigation into the cause of the leak, as well as stepping up regulations for all gas storage facilities in the state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 07, 2016, 10:25:11 PM
Update on the California natural gas leak.

Governor Declares Emergency Over Los Angeles Gas Leak
Quote
Unlike some other wells, the leaking well did not have an subsurface safety valve.

Though not required by state regulators, such a valve could have stopped the leak quickly, and calls for reform have followed.

In his emergency declaration, Mr. Brown said he was ordering an investigation into the cause of the leak, as well as stepping up regulations for all gas storage facilities in the state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/us/california-governor-declares-emergency-over-los-angeles-gas-leak.html)

The Porter Ranch natural gas leak in California has increased California’s greenhouse gas emissions by more than 25 percent; I wonder when NOAA updates their Trinidad Head, CA, Atmospheric Methane Concentration plot beyond Dec 26 2015 (see the first plot vs the second plot for Mauna Loa)

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/07/deepwater-horizon-on-land-porter-ranchs-neverending-gas-leak-prompts-california-state-of-emergency/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/07/deepwater-horizon-on-land-porter-ranchs-neverending-gas-leak-prompts-california-state-of-emergency/)

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 08, 2016, 01:55:05 PM
Oil hit $32 and change yesterday....and that could be the bottom for oil.  Depending on how it rebounds (slow or fast) in coming weeks....will determine what the major oil companies do.

The bottom in oil will be a big plus to alternative energy stocks the rest of the year.

I fully expect to see oil at $55 by the end of 2016.....and natural gas at higher prices as well.  Again...a big plus for alternative energy stocks.

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 08, 2016, 04:07:31 PM
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia's state owned oil company) is looking to do an IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sell stock in that entity.

If I had no ethics.....and I was holding an asset that was losing value as time passed....I would probably do an IPO as well.  The "deep downside" of the oil market (in my opinion) is likely WITHIN 5 years.  And by that I mean.....within that time period, there will be:

1)  Too much growth in renewable energy sources.....it will be eating into fossil fuels share of the market.

2)  Global warming will be a much more significant concern....and action will be "ramped up" to combat GW within that time period.

SO....if Saudi Arabia unloads Aramco on the public markets.....they will at least get something for it.....before the bottom absolutely falls out.

I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public.

From a historical perspective.....and a financial perspective.....this will be fascinating:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2016, 07:34:03 PM
Hundreds of individual lawsuits foreseen against Southern California Gas Company's gas leak.

Erin Brockovich lends star power to legal fight over huge California methane leak
The environmental activist, portrayed by Julia Roberts in the 2000 film, lives just 20 miles from the leaky gas storage well: ‘I call it the BP oil spill on land’
Quote
Bob Bowcock, an environmental investigator, drew gasps when he said the official estimate of 50,000 kilograms of methane escaping every hour may be a gross underestimate. Weitz & Luxenberg thinks it may be closer to 146,000 kilograms.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak (http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: sidd on January 08, 2016, 08:19:57 PM
"I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public."

Googling for "Abacus Goldman Sachs" is informative. Or for "Magnetar Goldman." They created securities specifically to bet against. But it doesn't really matter who leads the IPO, they all do it.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2016, 03:43:48 PM
Hundreds of individual lawsuits foreseen against Southern California Gas Company's gas leak.

Erin Brockovich lends star power to legal fight over huge California methane leak
The environmental activist, portrayed by Julia Roberts in the 2000 film, lives just 20 miles from the leaky gas storage well: ‘I call it the BP oil spill on land’
Quote
Bob Bowcock, an environmental investigator, drew gasps when he said the official estimate of 50,000 kilograms of methane escaping every hour may be a gross underestimate. Weitz & Luxenberg thinks it may be closer to 146,000 kilograms.
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak (http://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/jan/08/erin-brockovich-lends-star-power-to-legal-fight-over-huge-california-methane-leak)

To add to this.  Investigators of this disaster have now found out that this well started leaking  .....24 years ago!!!.........

It makes you wonder how many other old wells are leaking out there.  Even more is how many are going to start leaking eventually.  And how can we even pay for trying to fix them? 

Quote
So who’s to blame for a leak that cannot be stopped? Aging natural gas equipment may have contributed. According to documents filed with the California Division of Oil, Gas & Geothermal Resources, this particular well, referred to as Standard Sesnon 25, was originally drilled in 1953, and showed signs of leakage 24 years ago, in 1992. Inspectors reported that they could hear the leak through borehole microphones.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-company-behind-las-methane-disaster-knew-its-well-was-leaking-24-years-ago (http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-company-behind-las-methane-disaster-knew-its-well-was-leaking-24-years-ago)
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 10, 2016, 04:20:35 PM
Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia's state owned oil company) is looking to do an IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sell stock in that entity.

If I had no ethics.....and I was holding an asset that was losing value as time passed....I would probably do an IPO as well.  The "deep downside" of the oil market (in my opinion) is likely WITHIN 5 years.  And by that I mean.....within that time period, there will be:

1)  Too much growth in renewable energy sources.....it will be eating into fossil fuels share of the market.

2)  Global warming will be a much more significant concern....and action will be "ramped up" to combat GW within that time period.

SO....if Saudi Arabia unloads Aramco on the public markets.....they will at least get something for it.....before the bottom absolutely falls out.

I would expect Goldman Sachs to be a primary "player" (if not the lead investment bank) in taking it public.  And Goldman will be spouting off about what such a great deal it is....and all the "upside" there is to oil price when they take Aramco public.

From a historical perspective.....and a financial perspective.....this will be fascinating:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-aramco-confirms-ipo-study-1452254819)

A sucker's play.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2016, 05:25:59 PM

Quote
A sucker's play.


ABSOLUTELY.  Likely the largest sucker play IN HISTORY.   And Goldman Sachs will be the "lead cheerleader."

Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Laurent on January 10, 2016, 05:31:39 PM
Oil price needed to balance budget Iran: $138 Venezuela: $120 Iraq: $114 Russia: $100 Saudi: $92 Current: $33.5
https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/686185733749510145

Don't know if it is valid or not, just impressive. They do not count the price to put them back in earth... !?
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: SATire on January 10, 2016, 08:18:16 PM
Oil price needed to balance budget Iran: $138 Venezuela: $120 Iraq: $114 Russia: $100 Saudi: $92 Current: $33.5
https://twitter.com/intlspectator/status/686185733749510145

Don't know if it is valid or not, just impressive. They do not count the price to put them back in earth... !?
As the oil price drops countries like Russia and USA are just pumping more to trying to cancel that effect a bit. Strange economic behaviour but such it is. At which oil price the budget would ballanced in USA or importing countries like France or EU? Maybe the effect of oil-price is overrated if compared to the budget alone.
Let us just hope for high prices because it maybe could lower consumption. On the other hand, if all countries do what they promised in Paris some weeks ago and reduce consumption regardless of the price of oil, then oil price must go down forever... 
So I would conclude the price of oil does not matter at all in respect to AGW or GDP or such in general. The profits/losses of the producers are just cancelled by the inverted effect of the others.
Title: Re: Oil and Gas Issues
Post by: Theta on January 10, 2016, 09:29:32 PM