Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Permafrost => Topic started by: morganism on July 19, 2014, 11:18:27 AM

Title: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: morganism on July 19, 2014, 11:18:27 AM
They got some samples !

http://www.iflscience.com/environment/scientists-get-first-look-inside-mysterious-siberian-crater (http://www.iflscience.com/environment/scientists-get-first-look-inside-mysterious-siberian-crater)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Adam Ash on July 19, 2014, 12:14:57 PM
See also
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,484.msg31826.html#msg31826 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,484.msg31826.html#msg31826)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 19, 2014, 12:23:37 PM
See also:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg31390.html#msg31390 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg31390.html#msg31390)

et seq. They got a new video too:

http://youtu.be/tDAVtjSadGg (http://youtu.be/tDAVtjSadGg)

Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: A-Team on July 19, 2014, 03:07:35 PM
The Siberian Times has excellent coverage again with another couple dozen photographs. Looking at the vegetation growing in and on the rim mud (no rocks here) --  considering the six week growing season -- it is abundantly clear that the bog huckleberry is not new growth but has been present the whole time.

Thus this was not a high energy event and even moderate heat was never in the picture. Nothing has burned: the darkening of the walls is simply air oxidation of iron and mangenese present in the reduced state in the anaerobic subsurface permafrost, which lines and melts into this drained thermokarst lake. You would see exactly the same thing in any soil pit in waterlogged soil in the US.

You can clearly see extensive drainage channels on the eroded and largely collapsed parapet. This may have just been a 20 m frost heave mound (pingo) with high ice content with surface soil left behind as the ice melted and drained, not even burped-up mud from periodic over-pressurization of melt water.

The volume of mud is not 10% of the volume of the hole. We see meltwater and permafrost icefall at the bottom increasing the size of the cavity. It's not done enlarging yet.

Thus the only thing of interest here is the water table and its drainage. It seems too low for such a soggy landscape. The feature is more or less unique; adjacent thermokarst lakes are not draining at this point. We do not yet know the depth of the water at the bottom.

There may not be drainage at all but simply rather gradual volume loss to volatile gases that escaped upon matrix phase change to liquid. So I expect them to melt a 100 m drill core to see what volume of water, soil and decayed veg is left after the volatile gases have evaporated.

We assume this is primarily methane of biogenic origin but carbon dioxide may also be a significant component. However ethane, propane and butane would indicate natural gas resulting from geochemical processes at great depth.

The name of this peninsula is correctly translated as Land's End. We have dozens of identically named features in the US and one of them houses a well-known mail order store of the same name.

It is a cheap shot to call it End of the Earth with that baggage of sensationalistic, catastrophic implications -- that is utterly missing in the original.

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/first-pictures-from-inside-the-crater-at-the-end-of-the-world/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/first-pictures-from-inside-the-crater-at-the-end-of-the-world/)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermokarst (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermokarst)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: A-Team on July 19, 2014, 07:30:06 PM
Since the diameter of the feature is ~ 60 m, that would amount to 2x2=4 pixels on 30 m Landsat. Thus a waste of time except for overview of surroundings. Google would have a very much higher resolution image from digiglobe, if they bothered with coverage of this remote site.

However as I explained earlier, the thing to do is retrieve the high resolution image history at Google Earth. (Of course the Russians would be looking at their own 1 m KLH imagery which has been sold for decades.) What I expect to see there is the feature is 1-2 years old. Permafrost melted, possibly forming a visible lake. That melted the frozen ground underneath.

Come winter, the top 1-2 meters froze solid. The liquid water continued to melt its way downward. Gases came out of solution but could not escape due to the ice cap. (Alternatively, a deeper underground gas seep was able to migrate upward through water or softer ice.)

Come spring, the ice cap softened enough that the gas pressure underneath was enough to blow it off, along with a bit of water, ice and top soil. Nothing ignited, this was not an explosion, just taking a warm champagne bottle shaken until the cork flies off.

The most intriguing comment has been from the Russians, saying academic papers from the '80's dated similar nearby thermokarst lakes, all to 8,000 years ago (Holocene warming episode), apparently attributing them to the same mechanism. If so, we may be entering this regime again, though one swallow does not make a summer.

This predicts the walls will continue to collapse for a while as the crater walls are now exposed ice. There being no underground drainage, the crater will widen and fill up with water, ending up looking just like the adjacent lakes.

The whole ridge may be in effect a giant frost heave, predicting that new craters will occur along the ridgeline plateau.

I could not make any sense out of this geologist talking about salt. This is freshwater ice, never mind if it has been submerged at some point. There is nothing in there that could ignite methane or peat, certainly not nitrate or sulfate. Methane cannot oxidize without something else being reduced.


Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Xulonn on July 19, 2014, 08:38:52 PM
Excellent posts, A-Team.  Logical and science-based - unlike the sensationalist crap I've read elsewhere.  Also appreciate the heads-up on the name translation - lands' end makes sense.

The biggest takeaway for me is that this phenomena may have not been common in recent times, but was more common in previous warmer periods.  I'm sure there will be some interesting research and papers published on these landscape features in the next few years.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: A-Team on July 19, 2014, 11:22:52 PM
Next someone is going to ask about megatonnes of methane clathrate and what about rapid consumption ('burning') of methane (~10 year half-life) in the upper atmosphere by hydroxyl radical. These topics have been discussed many times in other forums.

The near-surface pressures here seem way outside the clathrate stability zone which require several hundred m water pressure equivalents.  Singlet oxygen formation (for hydroxyl radical) requires very short wavelength UV almost none of which reaches the surface. Ozone is equally implausible at this site. Methane in air only becomes an explosive mix at only at ~10% level, a lot. Methane maxes out its solubility in water at ~30 mg/l, relatively little.

I don't know how much non-clathrate methane dirty ice might hold. There are some prospects for a resurgence of de novo methane generation by archaea in cold dark melt water. At some point, the methane would come out of solution as a (pressurized) gas that would bubble up rapidly to the surface if it could, vaguely similar to mud pots at Yellowstone.

Methane bubbles expand with decreasing pressure along ideal gas law lines. If it were confined by a frozen ice cap above, the gas pressure rises until the tensile strength of the cap is exceeded and the methane vented abruptly, vaguely similar to magma and rising CO2 under Mt St Helens.

This blog is very familiar with the high-end airborne methane monitors the Russians operate out of 'nearby' Tiksi; these clever suitcases are additionally capable of real-time determination the carbon's isotopic composition (and thus origin: biogenic are depleted vs geochemical). So it should not take too long to see some data on the air in the crater.

http://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/vol07x10howaremethanehydratesformed....pdf (http://hilo.hawaii.edu/academics/hohonu/documents/vol07x10howaremethanehydratesformed....pdf)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3011/ (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3011/)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1451/tables_and_graphs.html (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1451/tables_and_graphs.html)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: morganism on July 19, 2014, 11:47:37 PM
Excellent and informative.

Looks just like HiRise images from Mars, as the permafrost melts out from the sides of the hole.


Are you aware of any other locations that may have had same geo, but with a thin overlay of high Fe or magnetite , from some type of erosion, debris flow, or volcanism event ?
Could also be a true karst in firn or glacial ice.

Have been thinking would be a fab place to see if there are also analogs to the "blueberries" found by Oppy on Mars...

A karst formation collapsing might cause the overlying material to "ball up" as it rolled down the incline, building up layers of different compositions as if rolls further down.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on July 20, 2014, 12:46:33 PM
A little speculation having had a good look at Jim's video. The walls have the appearance of melting ice, dirty ice, and if that's the case then it's no wonder the pools nearby are not draining. The consistent ripples in the bottom water, could be just drips or signs of flow. The mass loss also suggests drainage, how big would a lake sitting on bedrock have to be to accommodate that kind of volume loss? 
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on July 22, 2014, 10:41:07 PM
Anyone know anything more about the second, smaller hole found 30km away by reindeer herders, as reported in today's Moscow Times?  It's surely not entirely surprising that if there is one, there will be more...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/mystery-of-giant-hole-in-siberia-unraveling-with-2nd-discovery/503858.html (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/mystery-of-giant-hole-in-siberia-unraveling-with-2nd-discovery/503858.html)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on July 23, 2014, 01:38:09 AM
It's interesting that the depth of the first hole is estimated at 70m whilst the peninsular doesn't get more than 50m above sea level.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2014, 12:49:50 AM
The linked article discusses Jason Box's concern that these hole/blowouts are venting methane into the atmosphere (see also attached methane plots with "outliers" possibly due to methane outbursts):

http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397 (http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/are-siberias-methane-blowholes-the-first-warning-sign-of-unstoppable-climate-change/story-fnjwvztl-1227006746397)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Steve Bloom on July 30, 2014, 07:43:03 AM
The hole connection was the reporter's idea.  Jason's tweet just now says: "News piece juxtaposes Siberian holes with my carbon release concerns but I have no idea about the holes."  Lots of other errors in the article, notably the PETM stuff.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Adam Ash on July 30, 2014, 12:29:21 PM
...It's surely not entirely surprising that if there is one, there will be more...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/mystery-of-giant-hole-in-siberia-unraveling-with-2nd-discovery/503858.html (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/mystery-of-giant-hole-in-siberia-unraveling-with-2nd-discovery/503858.html)

Yup, Google shows many.  They generally lie along what looks like stream lines in the terrain, suggesting some underlying cause/effect, but which came first is unclear.

At
  71.787536°   72.113329°  (Copy paste into GE)
you can see evidence of a steep side slope complete with a mounded edge (which snow has heaped up against), and at
  71.171112°   71.360918°
an example showing a sloping inside then a vanishignly deep centre...

  70.968751°   70.349530°
Fresh debris around the crater rim.  750m diameter.  Cloudy disturbed water in the pool so still gassing?

  69.698662°   69.536169°
Fresh debris around the crater rim.  650m diameter.  Clear water so gassing ceased?
 
The volume of debris outside the holes looks to be a lot less than the total volume of the pit, so clearly there has to be a mechanism for removing the earth or whatever that supported the previous ground surface.  If the area is comprised of permafrost / ice with a thin top layer of falling dust entrained within a slow growing surface micro-flora (a few millennia would see that accumulation resemble topsoil) then the missing material is/was simply ice which has flowed or sublimated away.. .

It would be interesting to core the various layers - the top ice layer (which may be loosing tensile strength due to surface warming) the next layer down (which maybe the methane store) and lower layers where there appear to be caverns/tunnels stretching along the axis of the surface features, probably carrying melt water at the natural ground water level, just a bit above sea level if its porous enough to be connected to the ocean, as most aquifers eventually are.

The tunnels may also provide a way for warmer ocean waters to reach underground and heat the  area from beneath (combination of some sea level rise, with tidal pumping etc).  Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers is not unknown. 

Interesting...   Another canary in the coal mine?  I wonder.   
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on July 30, 2014, 04:35:57 PM
The hole connection was the reporter's idea.  Jason's tweet just now says: "News piece juxtaposes Siberian holes with my carbon release concerns but I have no idea about the holes."  Lots of other errors in the article, notably the PETM stuff.

Steve,

Thanks for the correction on Jason Box's true concerns (which are not focused on the Siberian holes).  I almost did not provide the link to this website, but the reporter's juxtapositions got the better of me.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Colorado Bob on July 30, 2014, 11:07:26 PM
The Arctic Methane Monster Exhales: Third Tundra Crater Found

[urlhttp://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/the-arctic-methane-monster-exhales-third-tundra-crater-found/#comment-19189][/url]
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Xulonn on July 31, 2014, 12:39:46 AM
I'm seeing a lot of hype and hysteria attached to the Siberian Tundra holes, particularly from some blogs written by non-scientists.  Many of the comments at some of these blogs sound truly hysterical and not at all grounded in logical, scientific reasoning.  People are running off with all kinds of hypotheses based on superficial examination of holes and seem to be assuming that methane "explosions" created them. 

Were there "blowouts" of burst-type ventings of methane gas during sudden events that caused the huge "WTF" anomalous peaks in Dr.Box's graphs?  Or are there other explanations?  I haven't a clue!

The fact that Jason Box's general comments about methane issues was jumbled in with the story of the holes seems to me to be really bad journalism, which also makes me skeptical about the all hype and unconfirmed conclusions in some of the links in this thread

I thought that A-team's comments in this thread on the geology of the holes and a likely burp or what other's have suggested could be a process related to some components of pingo-building activity seemed to be reasonable alternative hypotheses.  This would obviously include some drainage and melting of permafrost in the sides of the holes, or they would be water filled lakes like the other round-hole lakes in the region.  If there were explosions, it would seem that the topsoil component of the ejects would be blown away and scattered, and not mounded around the hole with years-old tundra plants growing on it. 

A-Team's suggestion that the dark sides of the holes were possibly manganese or other oxides, and that the years-old slow-growing plants on the shoved out earth bumps around the perimeter indicates a longer creation/event process, also makes sense to me.  There is not sufficient ejecta visible to account for the volume of the holes, although ice would be ejected and melt.  Of course, all speculation on the possible mechanisms and processes that formed these holes are still at best, only hypotheses. 

I am aware that that methane could be an AGW/CC trigger event, but that is what the 80 scientists and technicians are working on as part of the SWERUS-C3 American/Russian/Swedish expedition aboard the Swedish icebreaker Oden.  Perhaps there will be soon be comprehensive expeditions to study the holes in detail. 

Speculation is part of human nature, and I do it myself.  But there are far to many variables and possibilities at this point in time to draw any conclusions about the tundra/permafrost holes.     
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Gray-Wolf on July 31, 2014, 11:52:07 AM
Maybe we also need to remember the 'chimney' features that were logged off the Siberian coast and their rapid growth over the year between observations?

For them (chimneys) growth from tens of metres to a km took only 1 year and so we see another 'natural' feature showing similar growth rates to those suggested for the holes?

I do not know if I am correct but think that the permafrost layer that both these features are in is one and the same? If so then could the land now be showing a similar deformation process to the submerged areas? With the submerged areas being warmed by water year round I would expect a faster development to be taking place under the shelf sea than on the land where winter temps must halt the process.

If we are seeing the same features evolving then we must link it to 'warming' and we should expect to see more and more such features form over the coming decades.

If a sign of methane out-gassing then this is not a good development to be witnessing however fascinating it might be?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2014, 03:29:25 AM
For those who had trouble with Colorado Bob's link to the Robert Scribbler post on this topic, I provide the following link:

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/the-arctic-methane-monster-exhales-third-tundra-crater-found/#comment-19189 (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/07/30/the-arctic-methane-monster-exhales-third-tundra-crater-found/#comment-19189)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: ghoti on August 01, 2014, 04:01:40 AM
News published in Nature today about it.

http://www.nature.com/news/mysterious-siberian-crater-attributed-to-methane-1.15649 (http://www.nature.com/news/mysterious-siberian-crater-attributed-to-methane-1.15649)

Air near the bottom of the crater contained unusually high concentrations of methane — up to 9.6%

That's percent not parts per billion methane.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 01, 2014, 09:03:27 AM
Air near the bottom of the crater contained unusually high concentrations of methane — up to 9.6%

Gulp  :o
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on August 01, 2014, 06:42:16 PM
The following link (see extracts below) leads to a discussion of the Yamal blowholes and includes an interview with Marina Leibman, a scientist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, who lead a team of scientists that visited the site of one of the holes (in mid-July 2014) that was approximately 30 meters in diameter and about 70 meters deep:


http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060003940 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060003940)

Extract: ""I have an opinion, but no proof," said Marina Leibman …

In Leibman's view, an unusually warm summer in the Yamal region in 2012 caused extensive permafrost melt, which unleashed methane gas trapped in the ice and sediment. That expanding gas presence unleashed by melt in turn caused the permafrost to pop up like a cork, spraying debris in a visible ring around the created hole, she explained. The presence of the debris likely couldn't have happened without such a popping action, she said.

It was not an explosion, but more of an eruption that sprayed debris far from the hole itself. The visited chasm most likely formed in 2013, according to Leibman. The holes have to be relatively recent, because of vegetation patterns, further indicating that the warm summer of 2012 may have played a role, she said.

Despite concerns about methane release from permafrost generally, the 30-meter-wide (98.4 foot) funnel is not likely to be a constant source of gas after the initial blowout, according to researchers.

"Sure some methane was released as it is a reason for the whole thing ... but when we were there we measured methane content and it was higher than the normal but far from a limit of risk of explosion," Leibman said. When asked about a climate change link, she said she preferred the term "local climate fluctuations."

One possible explanation is that warming helped create a cavity underneath the ground covered by a relativity stable top, said Vladimir Romanovsky, a professor of geophysics at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, who has spoken to Russian scientists investigating the holes.

In theory, such a cavity could be created underground over a period of years as pure ice deep underground became more vulnerable to melt than a mix of ice and earth material at the surface, which acted like a stabilizing roof. Those dynamics, combined with an underground water source at the spot -- also boosted by warming -- perhaps helped create the underground cavity.

When pressure built up in it from gas, it could have burst the top, he said.
The pressure could have come from methane either from melting surrounding ice or perhaps from a deep underground pathway transferring it from the area's rich gas fields, he said."

edit: this article larges presents the same point of view as the Nature article that ghoti links to in Reply #19 (and could be taken to be in line with Robert Scribbler's article that Colorado Bob linked to [see Reply #18])
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 16, 2014, 12:22:27 PM
Mystery of the Siberian crater deepens: Scientists left baffled after two NEW holes appear in Russia's icy wilderness

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2708345/Mystery-Siberian-crater-deepens-Scientists-left-baffled-two-NEW-holes-appear-Russias-icy-wilderness.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2708345/Mystery-Siberian-crater-deepens-Scientists-left-baffled-two-NEW-holes-appear-Russias-icy-wilderness.html)

3 Holes very far from each other...so it not a local effect...
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 16, 2014, 04:09:06 PM
From this link......

http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060003940 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060003940)

"...Much of what is known about the crater basics came from The Siberian Times, which reported earlier this month the discovery of the first hole with an icy lake at its bottom in northern Siberia,..."

....and this as well from the comment....

"One possible explanation is that warming helped create a cavity underneath the ground covered by a relativity stable top, said Vladimir Romanovsky, a professor of geophysics at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, who has spoken to Russian scientists investigating the holes.

In theory, such a cavity could be created underground over a period of years as pure ice deep underground became more vulnerable to melt than a mix of ice and earth material at the surface, which acted like a stabilizing roof. Those dynamics, combined with an underground water source at the spot -- also boosted by warming -- perhaps helped create the underground cavity."


...I would like to suggest a much more awesome possibility from a position of relative ignorance. All of these "blow holes" are occurring in areas of permafrost that are near the sea. This permafrost, which is frozen soil with large amounts of organic material, stretches across the northern regions of Siberia and collapses and turns into bogs when thawed. The area where this large hole appeared is on a peninsula that juts into a rapidly warming Kara Sea. This land is at or only slightly above sea level and has a massive river, the Ob, flowing through it into the sea. This "blow hole" is very deep and was described as having an icy lake at the bottom of it. I think the ice that is frozen deep below this area of land is melting because the warming Kara Sea and Ob River are intruding and melting the ice at and below sea level. This would not be a localized phenomena but is likely occurring all over this area of land. Imagine that this process is similar to the bottom melt of a glacier that terminates at the sea. As bottom melt occurs and thins the glacier, the glacier weakens and then calves. I think these "blow holes" could be a manifestation of the same basic process except they appear in this manner because the upper portions of this "land based glacier or ice shelf" includes huge amounts of organic material that has collected for tens of thousands of years.

Now consider that one of the largest rivers in Russia empties into the Kara Sea at this point and look at the map below again. The low elevation land to the west and east of this large river begins to take on the appearance of a large river delta, formed by a river that drains a vast, relatively low lying, region of Russia. This area of Russia actually receives fairly large amounts of rain, as compared to areas east of it. (see annual precipitation map below) How does this  compare to other large rivers? Look at the annual rainfall that occurs in the drainage basin of the largest river in North America, the Mississippi. (see below) While lower, they are not wildly different. This area of Russia, I believe, is a huge frozen river delta and is prone to collapse as it melts. This process has begun and, as it accelerates, the true nature of this land will reveal itself, a low lying river delta. Why do I believe  it will accelerate? I think it will behave just as the shallow East Siberian Sea is behaving. Methane plumes are appearing and expanding rapidly. This river delta will behave identically to a warming planet.

(Edit by author: Another note: This low lying region of Russia has a 2nd river also flowing to it, the Yenisey.)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 16, 2014, 05:05:14 PM
I thought I would provide a more detailed topographical map of the region. (Click on map to expand.) Much of the peninsula that extends into the Kara is no more than 50 meters above sea level. The first blow hole found near the tip of this peninsula was between 50 and 100 meters deep. (See link above on comment posted by Laurent.)

As fantastic as it sounds, it would not entirely surprise me if much of this peninsula is prone to sinking into the sea.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 16, 2014, 06:13:54 PM
Even if I have no clue what I am talking about, (a distinct possibility.) the Yamal Peninsula is an area of continuous permafrost. These holes that are appearing cannot be anything other than a collapse of the permafrost in this region. Unlike the boggy remains in areas further from the sea coast, this  collapse has left an amazingly deep hole with an icy lake 70 meters below the surface! When permafrost melts and forms small boggy ponds, the effect is to cause melt on the perimeter of these  ponds so that they enlarge. I would expect this to occur at these blow holes. The walls of this hole should continue to melt and  collapse. Since I believe the underlying melt is widespread (the icy lake as evidence of this) I would also expect new holes to form.

One other item to note from this image is that there are numerous rivers that flow into the Kara in this region of Russia. While the Ob and Yennisey are the largest, you have the Nadym, Pur and Taz that flow to the sea in between the larger rivers. In fact there are additional streams in this image that are not named....I expect that they have names. Looking at this lacework of rivers that intersect and split in the areas of  continuous and discontinuous permafrost, it would not be inaccurate to describe this area as a rich, moist river plain.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 16, 2014, 06:40:25 PM
If we take a look at the broader river basin in West Siberia that drains into the Kara, we see that evidence of widespread warming and melt are present.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/warm-water-keeps-flowing-into-the-kara-sea.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/warm-water-keeps-flowing-into-the-kara-sea.html)

This area of Russia is showing elevated levels of methane and is experiencing anomalously high summer temperatures. We are witnessing a transformation of a large portion of the northern hemisphere land surface.

Here is a  piece of research that focuses on the river basin that flows into the Kara Sea and the sea itself.

http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/polyak_etal_JFR_02.pdf (http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/polyak_etal_JFR_02.pdf)

With regards to my comparison of this drainage basin to the Mississippi....

"The mean annual discharges of the Ob and the Yenisey are approximately 400 and 580 km3, respectively; there combined discharge is almost two times that of the Mississippi River and constitutes more than 1/3 of the total runoff into the Arctic Ocean."

No mention is made of the smaller rivers that flow into the Kara Sea so these figures might be higher for  the entire basin.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 16, 2014, 08:55:38 PM
The Gulf of Ob (perhaps more properly called an estuary) is between 10 and 12 meters deep.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Ob (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Ob)

From this research paper, (posted earlier)....

http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/polyak_etal_JFR_02.pdf (http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/polyak_etal_JFR_02.pdf)

.....the bottom water temperatures of the estuary in the summer, east of this large blow hole that has just formed, is 3C. Is this water temperature high enough to cause significant melt of the adjacent permafrost?

Does anyone know of any climate research that  is being done on this peninsula? It would be interesting if they are drilling cores of the permafrost. What would they find between 50 and 100 meters down? Could melt be spreading?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 16, 2014, 10:27:19 PM
A few informations I can see (Don't have access) :
A continuous multimillennial ring-width chronology in Yamal, northwestern Siberia
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/12/6/717.short (http://hol.sagepub.com/content/12/6/717.short)

Late Quaternary stratigraphy of western Yamal Peninsula, Russia: New constraints on the configuration of the Eurasian ice sheet
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/27/9/807.short (http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/27/9/807.short)

The Yamal Peninsula-Lake Baikal deep seismic sounding profile
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93GL01482/abstract;jsessionid=4941F424F5D576F02D2667009E03C6BF.f03t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93GL01482/abstract;jsessionid=4941F424F5D576F02D2667009E03C6BF.f03t04?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false)

Soil Erosion on the Yamal Peninsula (Russian Arctic) due to Gas Field Exploitation
 :) http://www.fluvial-systems.net/present_en/ISCO96.pdf (http://www.fluvial-systems.net/present_en/ISCO96.pdf)

Dynamics of landslide slopes and their development on Yamal peninsula
 :) http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/ICOP/55700698/Pdf/Chapter_115.pdf (http://www.arlis.org/docs/vol1/ICOP/55700698/Pdf/Chapter_115.pdf)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 17, 2014, 12:11:25 AM
Thanks Laurent. That last research is informative.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Adam Ash on August 17, 2014, 03:20:39 AM
SharedH.  Fresh water is densest at 3C, so above that can be 2C 1C then Ice or 4C up to what ever.   3C is pretty much the default bottom temperature for fresh water bodies.   (One of Natures presents for us, this density feature.  Saves ice forming on the bottom of oceans and rivers which leaves a habitable zone there.  It would be tricky otherwise.)

3C at the bottom, then, is no indicator of what it is at higher levels.  Certainly the rivers are transporting a lot of energy northwards and it will be affecting air and land temperatures, as well as the seabed.  They always have, but recent increased air temperatures in the region will be ramping up the energy carried north in the surface runoff; to where we least need it to be.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 17, 2014, 11:56:50 AM
Began thinking in terms of peat bog and not permafrost and came across info on deformation of peat boglands including this;

"Experiments with peat cores indicate that gas bubbles may
occlude peat pores and decrease the hydraulic conductivity
in the catotelm [Reynolds et al., 1992; Beckwith and Baird,
2001]. Romanowicz et al. [1995] therefore hypothesized
that biogenic gas bubbles occlude the pores in the deeper
peat strata in the GLAP, producing transient confining
layers that episodically rupture and release large volumes
of methane to the atmosphere"

from; http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1094&context=ers_facpub (http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1094&context=ers_facpub)

It appears that we can see behaviours that would 'erupt' the surface as the gas escapes? The Yamal pit would take more explaining ( the overdeepening) but the small surface 'burm' may well represent this type of surface deformation? i find it hard to buy a large, cylindrical mass of pure ice once filled the rest of the void so where did the rest of the material go that once filled the void? Transport in solution? That would call for an underground water course at the base of the pit ( like the sub glacial rivers?) which would raise questions about the whole of this region and the rapid changes occurring there?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 17, 2014, 12:08:32 PM
Seems a good explaination. That mean we should look for a layer (around 10 cm thick ?) certainly still showed on the surface of the hole, that could seal the part before over pressured.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 17, 2014, 03:25:33 PM
Began thinking in terms of peat bog and not permafrost and came across info on deformation of peat boglands including this;

"Experiments with peat cores indicate that gas bubbles may
occlude peat pores and decrease the hydraulic conductivity
in the catotelm [Reynolds et al., 1992; Beckwith and Baird,
2001]. Romanowicz et al. [1995] therefore hypothesized
that biogenic gas bubbles occlude the pores in the deeper
peat strata in the GLAP, producing transient confining
layers that episodically rupture and release large volumes
of methane to the atmosphere"

from; http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1094&context=ers_facpub (http://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1094&context=ers_facpub)

It appears that we can see behaviours that would 'erupt' the surface as the gas escapes? The Yamal pit would take more explaining ( the overdeepening) but the small surface 'burm' may well represent this type of surface deformation? i find it hard to buy a large, cylindrical mass of pure ice once filled the rest of the void so where did the rest of the material go that once filled the void? Transport in solution? That would call for an underground water course at the base of the pit ( like the sub glacial rivers?) which would raise questions about the whole of this region and the rapid changes occurring there?

I am not sure if this is the case for each of the holes but Jim Hunt posted a video above of the largest hole taken from a helicopter and this hole is clearly located along a surface feature that looks like a stream. Is it possible that, given the porous nature of the soils, (described as sand  and peat in the above linked research posted by Laurent) could this surface feature suggest a  similar feature is underlying it? Could an underlying stream or river, fed by water percolating down from the surface be carrying away lose organic material to the sea?

If you look at a satellite view of the Yamal Peninsula, it is laced with surface stream features. I wonder if there is any research that measures subsidence on the peninsula.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on August 17, 2014, 03:39:31 PM
I read somewhere that the peninsulars highest point was about 45m above sea level, so a 70m hole would have nowhere to drain unless there's a porous underlying strata. Is the whole peninsular frozen ground of this type? Until someone explains the chemistry behind a salt/methane explosion and establishes that the base of the hole is more or less at the salt layer this'll remain a mystery to me.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 17, 2014, 04:12:44 PM
I read somewhere that the peninsulars highest point was about 45m above sea level, so a 70m hole would have nowhere to drain unless there's a porous underlying strata. Is the whole peninsular frozen ground of this type? Until someone explains the chemistry behind a salt/methane explosion and establishes that the base of the hole is more or less at the salt layer this'll remain a mystery to me.

Good article that may not answer the question but it does provide information on the behavior of soils when permafrost is degrading.

http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/155184/ (http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/155184/)

This research shows significant warming of soils on the Yamal Peninsula and also shows that organic (peat soils) are the most susceptible to thawing permafrost.

This research article takes a closer  look at the Yamal Peninsula soils.

http://epic.awi.de/28435/1/Polarforsch1998_26.pdf (http://epic.awi.de/28435/1/Polarforsch1998_26.pdf)

"The permafrost layer is characterized by high values of water and ice content decreasing with depth (from 85 % to 25 %). The unfrozen water content increases with depth (from 1 % to 20 %)."

Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 17, 2014, 08:18:26 PM
Looking at one of the photos I wonder if the layer that I have encircled may be the cork layer said by Graywolf. If there is bacterial activity that could seal a lime layer may be it is around. It must be near the point where the over pressure seems to have started. I remember seeing a documentary where there was bacterial activity in a cave without oxygen. The bacterias were building a film on the surface of a pond with the consistency of some gelatin certainly hydrophobic and made to capture the gaz from below (may be)...life was thriving in a place where it should not have...
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on August 19, 2014, 10:55:12 AM
SH Thanks for those links now i find myself very curious as to the depth of the 'surface' beneath the permafrost, and how did it ever get to be 500m thick?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: DoomInTheUK on August 19, 2014, 01:21:44 PM
Johnm33,

Quite simply - time. Lots and lots of time. The permafrost and it's underlayer slowly accumulate and there's not much going on to erode or deplete it. Under the ESS it's thought to extend many KM deep.

Now there's a scary thought!
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 19, 2014, 10:59:05 PM
Found the video I was talking about in english :
Movile cave in Romania
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbpmJiI66wc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbpmJiI66wc)
http://www.int-res.com/articles/ame/18/a018p157.pdf (http://www.int-res.com/articles/ame/18/a018p157.pdf)

Don't know if there is anything to see with our Siberian Holes but anyway for your information...
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on August 21, 2014, 10:26:54 AM
Sex, Lies, and Black Holes of Methane - in Fiction and Fact
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/sex-lies-and-black-holes-_b_5689976.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/sex-lies-and-black-holes-_b_5689976.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on November 12, 2014, 03:59:27 PM
Now that the ground is frozen, a team from the Russian Center of Arctic Exploration has descended into the crater and is taking measurements. Story and some great pictures here:
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0018-exclusive-new-pictures-inside-mystery-siberian-crater/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0018-exclusive-new-pictures-inside-mystery-siberian-crater/)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Rick Aster on November 13, 2014, 07:30:07 PM
Photos at The Guardian:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/nov/13/scientists-climb-to-bottom-of-siberian-sinkhole-in-pictures (http://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2014/nov/13/scientists-climb-to-bottom-of-siberian-sinkhole-in-pictures)
Eighty percent of the crater appears to be made up of ice and there are no traces of a meteorite strike
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on November 21, 2014, 12:33:08 PM
Now a way to exploit it/them http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/f0013-now-siberian-craters-could-provide-energy-of-future/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/f0013-now-siberian-craters-could-provide-energy-of-future/)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2015, 06:12:04 PM
The linked reference provides evidence that the Siberian Arctic region has been warming for the past 7,000 years and that the rate of temperature increase has accelerated marked during the past few decades.  This indicates that the large Siberian permafrost is less stable than some researchers have previously thought, which may mean a likely increase and both CO2 and CH4 emissions and likely more methane hydrate sinkholes in the near future:

Hanno Meyer, Thomas Opel, Thomas Laepple, Alexander Yu Dereviagin, Kirstin Hoffmann & Martin Werner, (2015), "Long-term winter warming trend in the Siberian Arctic during the mid- to late Holocene", Nature Geoscience, Volume: 8, Pages: 122–125, doi:10.1038/ngeo2349


http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n2/full/ngeo2349.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n2/full/ngeo2349.html)


Abstract: "Relative to the past 2,000 years, the Arctic region has warmed significantly over the past few decades. However, the evolution of Arctic temperatures during the rest of the Holocene is less clear. Proxy reconstructions, suggest a long-term cooling trend throughout the mid- to late Holocene, whereas climate model simulations show only minor changes or even warming. Here we present a record of the oxygen isotope composition of permafrost ice wedges from the Lena River Delta in the Siberian Arctic. The isotope values, which reflect winter season temperatures, became progressively more enriched over the past 7,000 years, reaching unprecedented levels in the past five decades. This warming trend during the mid- to late Holocene is in opposition to the cooling seen in other proxy records. However, most of these existing proxy records are biased towards summer temperatures. We argue that the opposing trends are related to the seasonally different orbital forcing over this interval. Furthermore, our reconstructed trend as well as the recent maximum are consistent with the greenhouse gas forcing and climate model simulations, thus reconciling differing estimates of Arctic and northern high-latitude temperature evolution during the Holocene."

See also:
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060012729 (http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060012729)

Title: Four New Enormous Holes in North Russia
Post by: wili on February 23, 2015, 10:46:25 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VXocKZFjfs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VXocKZFjfs)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWuKzF1Ryjs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWuKzF1Ryjs)

So far, all I can find is these videos and a Daily Mail story, so I'd like to have more evidence before knowing what to make of this: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2965385/Are-Siberia-s-mysterious-craters-caused-climate-change-Scientists-four-new-enormous-holes-northern-Russia.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2965385/Are-Siberia-s-mysterious-craters-caused-climate-change-Scientists-four-new-enormous-holes-northern-Russia.html)

Four new mysterious giant craters have appeared in the Siberian permafrost in northern Russia, sparking fears that global warming may be causing gas to erupt from underground.

Scientists spotted the new holes, along with dozens of other smaller ones, in the same area as three other enormous craters that were spotted on the Yamal Peninsula last year.

The craters are thought to be caused by eruptions of methane gas from the permafrost as rising rising temperatures causes the frozen soil to melt.”

ETA: None of the pictures show much snow on the ground, which seems odd this time of year at that location. I'm thinking something maybe off about this story.
Title: Re: Four New Enormous Holes in North Russia
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 23, 2015, 11:58:27 PM
Seems the new craters were found using satellite imagery.

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/)
Title: Re: Four New Enormous Holes in North Russia
Post by: viddaloo on February 24, 2015, 12:24:21 AM
Snow–covers change and the date of photos could be varying: Don't think this is a hoax because of absent snow.

It is thought permafrost at the sites could have one million times more methane hydrates locked inside than ordinary gas.

One expert estimated that the total explosive power of the craters has been the equivalent of about 11 tonnes of TNT.

One million times more methane hydrates. Whoa. On the submarine front, however, this winter has been very quiet. Not much drama there.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on February 24, 2015, 01:15:59 AM
More craters have been found, according to the Siberian Times.
Respected Moscow scientist Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky has called for 'urgent' investigation of the new phenomenon amid safety fears.

Until now, only three large craters were known about in northern Russia with several scientific sources speculating last year that heating from above the surface due to unusually warm climatic conditions, and from below, due to geological fault lines, led to a huge release of gas hydrates, so causing the formation of these craters in Arctic regions.

Two of the newly-discovered large craters - also known as funnels to scientists - have turned into lakes, revealed Professor Bogoyavlensky, deputy director of the Moscow-based Oil and Gas Research Institute, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Examination using satellite images has helped Russian experts understand that the craters are more widespread than was first realised, with one large hole surrounded by as many as 20 mini-craters, The Siberian Times can reveal.

'We know now of seven craters in the Arctic area,' he said. 'Five are directly on the Yamal peninsula, one in Yamal Autonomous district, and one is on the north of the Krasnoyarsk region, near the Taimyr peninsula.

'We have exact locations for only four of them. The other three were spotted by reindeer herders. But I am sure that there are more craters on Yamal, we just need to search for them.

'I would compare this with mushrooms: when you find one mushroom, be sure there are few more around. I suppose there could be 20 to 30 craters more.'

He is anxious to investigate the craters further because of serious concerns for safety in these regions.

The study of satellite images showed that near the famous hole, located in 30 kilometres from Bovanenkovo are two potentially dangerous objects, where the gas emission can occur at any moment.
More at the link, with photographs including one of a lake showing degassing.
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/)
Title: Re: Four New Enormous Holes in North Russia
Post by: Anne on February 24, 2015, 01:22:23 AM
Whoops, sorry, I just posted about this on the blowout thread on Permafrost (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,926.msg45947.html#new), not seeing this. The Daily Mail article is a ripoff from 
the Siberian Times (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/).
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: wili on February 24, 2015, 02:05:27 AM
Good catch. I started another thread on it, but if the mods want to merge, that would be cool. More here, too: http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2015/02/new-sinkholes-appear-yamal-12-02 (http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2015/02/new-sinkholes-appear-yamal-12-02)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 24, 2015, 11:03:54 AM
We are heading toward 20 years of ice free conditions over summer in the region so have we begun to cross a threshold as the heat penetrates further into the permafrost?

More of a concern to me are the same reserves offshore? If land temps are now becoming critical ( for this process) then what are we to find off shore? I remember the 2010 expedition finding that features plotted the year previous had grown ten fold over the year. With 2012 part of the scene post 2010 just how corrupted by warm sea water have the permafrosts become? Could the land craters be being driven by gas migrating from the ocean sediments and are they just the 'cracks in the dam' that we are seeing prior to a major 'burp' from the destabilised permafrost off shore?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Neven on February 24, 2015, 01:04:13 PM
Good catch. I started another thread on it, but if the mods want to merge, that would be cool.

Yes, a merge seemed to be in order, don't want two separate topics in two different categories. Keep the links concentrated, especially with an intriguing subject as this.   :)

Thanks for keeping an eye on this, everyone.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on February 24, 2015, 01:24:52 PM
Slightly ot but looking at these holes makes me wonder just how extensive this deep ice is. I can't find any map that differentiates between what is clearly dirty ice and other examples of permafrost. Has anyone seen radar images that map out the bedrock in any of the extensive areas of permafrost cover?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: wili on February 24, 2015, 02:59:52 PM
Good questions on bedrock. I've heard that at places the permafrost is about a mile deep. So there is variation and presumably someone has done some research on this.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on February 25, 2015, 01:08:55 AM
I wonder if this helps to explain them? http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14577882 (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14577882)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 25, 2015, 09:58:17 PM
So anyone care to speculate how many new sinkholes are discovered by the end of this melt season? My guess is this is merely the beginning evidence of a new process underway on the Yamal peninsula and that, over the next several years, the incidence of sinkholes will grow exponentially.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: viddaloo on March 25, 2015, 10:37:35 PM
If related to global warming, it no doubt will. In addition, there's oil & gas activities in the area, as well as military installations and a tense situation with existential threats from Mr Obama and our own Mr Stoltenberg.

If these explosions are all natural — which I believe they are — the threat of war from NATO could become more of a side–show to these natural events unfolding both on land and out on the continental shelf.

Personally, I think it is a shame good people and friendly neighbours can't cooperate in working against this enormous threat instead of playing their old geopolitical games, sucking up huge parts of their annual budgets.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 26, 2015, 10:55:22 AM
I too have concerns that we may just be seeing the start of a process that could leave Yamal looking like the Somme by 1916?

To me I worry that the record warm years they have been seeing, since the Sea ice retreated, have begun to destabilise the deposits and, if Shakhova is correct and we do have ice 'capped' pockets of pre formed Methane across the permafrost, then these 'burps' , now beginning ,will increase in number as the process reaches down to the 'critical' depth? What we need to know is how this is process is progressing under the warmer conditions off shore. Were the 'chimneys' that we heard of back in 2012 the sea bed version of what we are now seeing on land? The disruptions to the strata that these chimneys made over one year of study ( ten fold increase in size across the chimney) does show a similar explosive process at play.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 26, 2015, 04:14:29 PM
I too have concerns that we may just be seeing the start of a process that could leave Yamal looking like the Somme by 1916?

To me I worry that the record warm years they have been seeing, since the Sea ice retreated, have begun to destabilise the deposits and, if Shakhova is correct and we do have ice 'capped' pockets of pre formed Methane across the permafrost, then these 'burps' , now beginning ,will increase in number as the process reaches down to the 'critical' depth? What we need to know is how this is process is progressing under the warmer conditions off shore. Were the 'chimneys' that we heard of back in 2012 the sea bed version of what we are now seeing on land? The disruptions to the strata that these chimneys made over one year of study ( ten fold increase in size across the chimney) does show a similar explosive process at play.

I think the sea bed chimneys may be absolutely the same phenomena, merely exhibiting differently underwater. The warm water over the frozen seabed would have the effect of melting the surface ground, allowing the methane to seep out. On land, we could be seeing subsurface melt while the land based cap holds the methane in until it fails in spectacular fashion.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 29, 2015, 04:48:49 PM
If there is subsurface melt  on the Yamal forming underground pockets that will also fail, is there some way to see these using satellites?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 30, 2015, 11:17:00 AM
This year should prove to be very informative with regards to these features? We have not seen any great departure from the warm up over the region in the past decade or so ( at least since it became common for the Sea ice to fully retreat/disappear off shore over summer) so any 'new' behaviours that this warming has instigated must surely continue and grow?

I would imagine that by Aug quite a few eyes will be checking modis for signs of new cratering in the region?

As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: LRC1962 on March 30, 2015, 01:34:20 PM
As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
If I understand the Russia theory right under sea blow holes very unlikely. The Russian theory is that it is methane gas release that was trapped under the permafrost layer. Under the sea that does not exist as that is basically just clathrates which release methane much more slowly.
You are right though in that if the warm summers continue there will be many more blowholes. Finding them will be the challenge unless a lot of hobby followers get involved and find them for the scientists working on it.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 30, 2015, 05:33:10 PM
As for the off shore deposits? well if the chimneys are the sub sea equivalent of the blow outs then how far into the progression of destabilisation of the strata are we? every 'chimney' must be allowing more sea water into the deposits exposing more and more of the submerged permafrost to high temps and so further destabilisation ?
If I understand the Russia theory right under sea blow holes very unlikely. The Russian theory is that it is methane gas release that was trapped under the permafrost layer. Under the sea that does not exist as that is basically just clathrates which release methane much more slowly.
You are right though in that if the warm summers continue there will be many more blowholes. Finding them will be the challenge unless a lot of hobby followers get involved and find them for the scientists working on it.

I agree with Gray-Wolf. I believe we are seeing similar behaviors wherever the permafrost is failing. In areas further south in Siberia, thermokarsts form as the permafrost melts. Once a thermokarst forms, it will expand and form marshy lakes that grow, sometimes quite rapidly, as the surrounding permafrost is exposed to the warm waters and air. From reports, the subsea methane vents are exhibiting the same basic behavior. Russian research vessels have discovered that individual vents are increasing in size 10 fold, year over year. Once a vent forms due to the permafrost melting, the  surrounding permafrost melts more rapidly as it is now exposed to the warm sea water. While there is less evidence with the blow holes on Yamal, didn't smaller blow holes appear that surround one of the earlier blow holes? These smaller blow holes, I think, will eventually merge with the blow hole in the center, forming a much larger one.

We are seeing exponential trends wherever detailed research is being carried out, glacier speeds, Antarctic ice shelf melt etc. It would surprise me if these phenomena, which I believe are linked, would not exhibit similar behavior and early research suggests they do.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 30, 2015, 05:40:41 PM
In each of these distinct processes, warm water is the driver. With subsea methane vents, it is the sea water. I imagine the marshy lake water, collecting in thermokarsts in Siberia, can get quite warm in the ridiculously warm summers they are experiencing. Similarly, the blowholes are described as having icy lakes, 70 meters below ground.

Is this process really any different than what is occurring in the Arctic Ocean? The newly exposed sea water is warming quite rapidly which accelerates the melt and degradation (rotten ice?) of the surrounding, remaining ice. Even if the sea ice does not melt out completely during a particular melt season, exposure to the stored heat in the warm sea water degrades it. Even if the permafrost in these three distinct phenomena does not melt completely during a particular melt season, the stored heat in the water degrades the adjacent permafrost, making it far more  likely to melt in the next season.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: jai mitchell on March 30, 2015, 08:46:06 PM
These 'blowholes' are pingos  a simple observation proves it.

notice the smooth sides of the opening, just below the surface crust:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fresources2.news.com.au%2Fimages%2F2014%2F11%2F17%2F1227125%2F345122-e7a5de76-6ddd-11e4-b2e3-ff776def1d7c.jpg&hash=874a0a06f80977d19b6f9b8eb3f2e851)

it is obvious that the original formation was formed by ice which has subsequently melted.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcontent.answers.com%2Fmain%2Fcontent%2Fimg%2Foxford%2FOxford_Geography%2F0198606737.pingo.2.jpg&hash=85e6fd3b7e7e27a6a0d1f7fb2876590d)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on April 05, 2015, 06:42:48 PM
I don't think anyone's actually posted a link to the Leibman paper:
NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE – DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS

Marina O. Leibman, Alexander I. Kizyakov, Andrei V. Plekhanov,
Irina D. Streletskaya

ABSTRACT. This paper is based on field data obtained during short visits to a newly formed permafrost feature in a form of relatively narrow, deep crater. Excluding impossible and improbable versions of the crater’s development, the authors conclude that it originated from warmer ground temperatures and an increase in unfrozen water content, leading to an increase in pressure from gas emissions from permafrost and ground ice. This conclusion is also supported by known processes in the palaeo-geography of Yamal lakes and recent studies of gas-hydrate behavior and subsea processes in gas-bearing provinces.

CONCLUSIONS (1) An exciting permafrost feature, a gas emission crater surrounded by a parapet no more than 30 m in diameter is observed;

(2) As water accumulates at the bottom of the hole, the feature has no access to deeper layers and the assumption that deep-seated gas deposits caused the crater is implausible;

(3) No traces of human activity in the vicinity of the crater were found, so this phenomenon is of a purely natural origin;

(4) The date of the crater’s formation is estimated to have been in the late fall of 2013;

(5) The high concentration of methane in the hole, which decreases in the vicinity of the hole and is negligible far from the hole, indicates the role of methane in the formation of the crater;

(6) No high background radiation and no traces of extremely high temperatures, which would point to a gas explosion or an extraterrestrial object such as a meteorite were observed.


RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES No.04[v.07] 2014, GEOGRAPHY  ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY  pp 68 - 80

http://www.rgo.ru/sites/default/files/gi214_sverka.pdf (http://www.rgo.ru/sites/default/files/gi214_sverka.pdf)
(H/T Alexander Ač on Robert Scribbler's blog)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on July 12, 2015, 12:43:30 AM
There has been another expedition to the first discovered blowhole, which is filling with water. And it is believed to be a pingo, but not formed in quite the usual way.
Professor Vasily Bogoyavlensky, who led the latest expedition, told The Siberian Times: 'I think that next year it will be full of water and it will turn completely into a lake; in 10-20 years it will be difficult to say what happened here. The parapet will be washed away with rains and melting snow, the banks will be covered with water.

'This large crater fills with water rather fast - in just two years, so we need to examine such objects quickly.'

The professor, deputy director of the Moscow-based Oil and Gas Research Institute, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said: 'We can now say more confidently about the process that led to the formation of the famous Yamal crater B-1. It was combination of a thermokarst (a form of pre-glacial topography) process and the migration of gases from the depth'.

It was also created from a pingo, he believes, something that experts initially doubted.

'It was a pingo or bulgunnyakh (mounds with an ice core common for Arctic and sub-Arctic regions), and then, due to the Earth’s heat flow this pingo starts to thaw and its half melted ice core is filled with gas that originates from the depth through cracks and faults in the ground.

'We know for sure that there is a fissure in the ground under this spot, probably even two intersecting faults - gullies around the spot confirm this. Through the cracks, natural gas got into the melting ice core, filled it and the pingo erupted. It was also heated by a stream of warmth coming from the bowels of the earth through the cracks.'

It is believed methane gas was largely responsible, though readings taken by the latest expedition showed no abnormal gas levels at the site.

The process is different than usual, because 'normally pingos thaw and collapse, forming the craters and then lakes which is quite a normal process.

'Here we see that the pingo erupts due to the gas which fills its core. It's a very interesting process, which we have never observed before'.

Much more, and pictures, in The Siberian Times
Link (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0302-startling-changes-revealed-in-mystery-craters-in-northern-siberia/)
(H/T Colorado Bob)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 12, 2015, 10:37:00 AM
Thanks for the heads up Anne. Here's the associated video:

http://youtu.be/AqunK_Zev1E (http://youtu.be/AqunK_Zev1E)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on July 12, 2015, 12:08:47 PM
Anyone else intrigued by the frozen wave appearence of the permafrost 'strata' 32sec and opposite side at about 1:16 in the video, thanks Jim and Anne.
add on The hole is about 60m deep iirc nothing on the peninsular is much more than 45m above sea level, anyone know of a bedrock map?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: TerryM on July 12, 2015, 06:26:00 PM
Not sure that this is the correct thread - but the CH-4 outgassing captured below would probably have gone unnoticed if it hadn't occurred at a rural golf course. If it had erupted a little north of where it did, in a permafrost pocket, would it have created a similar feature?


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/watch-golfer-discovers-natural-gas-blast-in-pond-/52963 (http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/watch-golfer-discovers-natural-gas-blast-in-pond-/52963)


Terry
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 14, 2015, 02:36:38 AM
When the first hole was discovered on the Yamal Peninsula, I speculated up-thread wildly as to the cause. There was one thing I was sure of. This was a new phenomena, related to climate change and we were going to see a lot more of these.

Courtesy of Robert Scribbler.....

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/02/24/arctic-methane-monster-shows-growing-eruption-number-of-global-warming-induced-craters-now-estimated-at-20-30/

Add this to the list of phenomena related to climate change that are poorly understood and will be growing exponentially from this point forward.

We are......so very.......screwed.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: bryman on July 15, 2015, 04:13:12 AM
Not really. Those craters are the results of pingos, not hydrates,
<snip>

Edit Neven: Last warning, for both forum and blog. I'm getting tired of the concern trolling. Not because of your disagreeing with people, but because your tone is belligerent, condescending and spoiling the atmosphere.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 15, 2015, 06:13:58 AM
i appreciate your opinion, bryman, but was that level of hostility really necessary?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: wili on July 15, 2015, 07:16:31 AM
"was that level of hostility really necessary?"

Look back at his earlier posts--hostility seems to be about his only mode of discourse around here.

Here's the latest on the craters:

http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0302-startling-changes-revealed-in-mystery-craters-in-northern-siberia/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0302-startling-changes-revealed-in-mystery-craters-in-northern-siberia/)

"the formation is something 'never observed' before, linked to warm weather in recent years"

"here the gas went not from the depth via the cracks in the ground, but it was gas hydrate located close to the surface."

Still some mysteries, but climate change and hydrates are about as likely to be involved as anything.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 15, 2015, 07:43:24 AM
thanks wili :)

nice article, it's good they aren't detecting unusual methane there anymore.  here's an older article that mentions the methane found at the bottom of the first hole right after it erupted.  methane in concentrations of 9.6%.  correct me if i'm wrong, that would be 96,000,000 ppb right?  obviously that gets diluted quite a bit when it reaches the atmosphere. 
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 15, 2015, 03:23:00 PM
Not really. Those craters are the results of pingos, not hydrates,
<snip>

Edit Neven: Last warning, for both forum and blog. I'm getting tired of the concern trolling. Not because of your disagreeing with people, but because your tone is belligerent, condescending and spoiling the atmosphere.

I assume I was insulted here. I didn't get a chance to read it unfortunately. At any rate, I fully expect to be disagreed with as I have very little real understanding of the science. I am more of a fascinated spectator.

I do think my useful role here is in exploring the things that are not well understood and suggesting possibilities. Playing this role, I welcome more informed opinions explaining to me why I am not correct. This helps me learn and might inform others who visit what is really going on.

If I take it too far, somebody grab me and gently shake me to snap me out of it.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Neven on July 15, 2015, 04:47:59 PM
Not to worry, SH. I had forgotten I had already given a last warning to Bryman (and the other names he posts under, here and on the blog) a couple of months ago, and so I banned him. I'm a bit lenient when it comes to banning people, so again, sorry for the delay.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: wili on July 15, 2015, 05:34:50 PM
I don't actually mind a bit of anger once in a while, especially if it's focused in the right direction (away from me ;D ;D ;D).

And I don't mind people parading their ignorance / not supporting their claims with links...(guilty as charged).

It's the combination of being extremely belligerent while making demonstrably faulty claims unsupported by any link or reference that gets...annoying after a while.

(Uh oh, now I have to avoid doing this myself! D'oh!  :-[  ;D))
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 16, 2015, 06:06:23 AM
i mostly agree with wili and go further to say even a certain amount of rudeness and belligerence is understandable, especially when its 3 pages into a fascinating discussion that started out polite.  everyone feels strongly about their own ideas.  but to be vicious from the start when completely unprovoked is unacceptable.  but the real reason i said anything is that particular tone just reminded me of some atheist self-described trolls i know on facebook.  i personally like the fact that healthy debate is allowed here, and everyone is given a chance to improve their behavior.  and if you miss a few idiots, it's ok, we all know you're busy.   we are all here for the cutting edge observations of the sea ice, a few idiots aren't going to scare anyone away.  and it doesn't take long to figure out who here really knows the arctic (i don't have to tell anyone that short list does not include me!!) there are some real experts here.  and i don't want to distract from this discussion anymore :) so thanks!!
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on September 24, 2015, 01:58:13 PM
New report on the hole which connects it to global warming http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0415-danger-of-methane-explosions-on-yamal-peninsula-scientists-warn/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0415-danger-of-methane-explosions-on-yamal-peninsula-scientists-warn/) I have a different view which if I can write something coherent I'll add later.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: johnm33 on November 20, 2015, 07:45:38 PM
I can't see this as a pingo it just doesn't fit the bill. My uneducated take on this phenomenon is this. Some water percolated through the ground from the nearby lake, at depth, and defrosted a few methantrophic bacteria. Contained in the water was some methane which was metabolised releasing CO2, this was at about 65m depth so the pressure from the nearby lake would give about 6bar. The CO2 remained in the water and a little at a time more methane rose up through it and a small pocket of [CH4/CO2] gas sat above the water. Due to the pressure the gas was always above 0c and a constant slow melt occurred supplying a trickle of nutrients. If there were more than two,[the 'cave']  these cylindrical columns of water grew in circumference and merged as they moved towards the surface. Whether the gas pocket grew to the full circumference or not the pressure in it was always kept close to 6bar, any excess would cause the lake to overflow,which may have had the effect of consolidating the permafrost capping. Eventually the dome was sufficiently close to the surface, perhaps in the spring melt, to burst through. Some of the capping was thrown aside some went up and came straight down, the equivalent of shaking a bottle of champagne after opening. The bulk of the water was blasted into the air, immediately freezing, [looked like smoke from a distance] and was carried away on the breeze. Thereafter the hole began to be filled from the bottom up by the lake.
edit added link, http://www.pnas.org/content/112/45/13946.full (http://www.pnas.org/content/112/45/13946.full)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: jai mitchell on November 21, 2015, 02:06:25 AM
they are pingos, the smooth sides of the inner walls show how the expansion of ice through the permafrost produced the classic pingo.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2015, 04:12:56 PM
The pingos appear to be extending offshore into the South Kara Sea, per the linked article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/23/mysterious-siberian-craters-may-have-an-underwater-analogue-scientists-say/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/23/mysterious-siberian-craters-may-have-an-underwater-analogue-scientists-say/)

Extract: "A recent scientific paper may have just cast new light on mysterious happenings on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia, where the appearance of numerous large craters in the permafrost has been attributed, at least by some, to the venting of large pockets of methane gas, possibly in a dramatic or sudden way."

See also:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JF003467/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015JF003467/full)

Abstract: "The Holocene marine transgression starting at ~19 ka flooded the Arctic shelves driving extensive thawing of terrestrial permafrost. It thereby promoted methanogenesis within sediments, the dissociation of gas hydrates, and the release of formerly trapped gas, with the accumulation in pressure of released methane eventually triggering blowouts through weakened zones in the overlying and thinned permafrost. Here we present a range of geophysical and chemical scenarios for the formation of pingo-like formations (PLFs) leading to potential blowouts. Specifically, we report on methane anomalies from the South Kara Sea shelf focusing on two PLFs imaged from high-resolution seismic records. A variety of geochemical methods are applied to study concentrations and types of gas, its character, and genesis. PLF 1 demonstrates ubiquitously low-methane concentrations (14.2–55.3 ppm) that are likely due to partly unfrozen sediments with an ice-saturated internal core reaching close to the seafloor. In contrast, PLF 2 reveals anomalously high-methane concentrations of >120,000 ppm where frozen sediments are completely absent. The methane in all recovered samples is of microbial and not of thermogenic origin from deep hydrocarbon sources. However, the relatively low organic matter content (0.52–1.69%) of seafloor sediments restricts extensive in situ methane production. As a consequence, we hypothesize that the high-methane concentrations at PLF 2 are due to microbial methane production and migration from a deeper source."
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 11, 2016, 04:46:59 PM
Appearance of crater dubbed ‘the Gateway to the Underworld’ in Siberia is a warning to our warming planet
Such slumps have been ‘increasing in extent and intensity’ in the frozen north, scientists say
The Batagaika crater is thought to have begun after local people cut down some trees in the 1980s or early 1990s.

“Once you disturb the vegetation or soil above permafrost that can often set in train events that lead to the melting of ice within the permafrost,” he said.

“Cutting down of vegetation … removes some of the insulation that keeps the ground cool and that allows the summer heat to penetrate deeper into the ground.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/gateway-to-the-underworld-siberia-batagaika-siberia-russia-permafrost-melting-a7063936.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/gateway-to-the-underworld-siberia-batagaika-siberia-russia-permafrost-melting-a7063936.html)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on June 11, 2016, 05:35:03 PM
In this article :
Professor Julian Murton, a geologist at the University of Sussex, has just returned from a trip to the crater to study its cliffs, which provide a new source of geological information that potentially dates back some 200,000 years.
This includes the last time that the Earth was warmer than it is now, when hippopotamuses and elephants wandered around the future Trafalgar Square.

I have been watching a movie about Mongolia recently and they were casually showing carving on rocks with hippopotamus on them, that was 10.000 years ago (~0,4°c) !!!?
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: TerryM on June 11, 2016, 11:57:00 PM
I have been watching a movie about Mongolia recently and they were casually showing carving on rocks with hippopotamus on them, that was 10.000 years ago (~0,4°c) !!!?


Wow, just WOW!


Do you recall the name of the movie, the location of the petroglyphs, or any url where more could be learned?
A friend discovered walls of petroglyphs in Nevada, but the most exciting one only showed a mammoth. A hippo at that latitude is HUGE!!


Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Laurent on June 12, 2016, 10:40:20 AM
Sorry Terry, it was a few months ago, I think it was on arte.tv. I have been trying to find some image today but I see nothing alike, there is plenty of carvings like this ones http://flickrhivemind.net/Tags/bichigtkhad/Interesting (http://flickrhivemind.net/Tags/bichigtkhad/Interesting) showing gazelles, elephants, leopards but I can't find the same.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: TerryM on June 12, 2016, 04:16:55 PM
Laurent
Thanks for the effort & the url.
I've found ancient art depicting conditions far different from what is now normal to be fascinating. Mammoths in the Mojave desert, crocodiles & hippos in the middle of the Sahara.
What will people thousands of years from now make of representations of musk ox, polar bears and arctic foxes?
Terry
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Milret2 on June 12, 2016, 09:29:59 PM
Terry, this pessimist wonders "WHATpeople thousands of years from now".
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: TerryM on June 13, 2016, 01:47:13 AM
Terry, this pessimist wonders "WHATpeople thousands of years from now".
Who knows? The Polynesians have a history of long distance travels on very short notice, a few of them might make the cut, & some Dene people walked from sub arctic Canada to Arizona - and thrived in desert conditions.
Some come from very hardy stock!
Terry
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: AbruptSLR on June 13, 2016, 11:15:22 AM
Some come from very hardy stock!

Terry,
While personally I very much agree with you that some hardy types will likely survive; nevertheless, the linked article discusses possible updates to the Drake Equation; and indicates that one of the reasons that we have not yet detected any SETI signals is because advanced civilizations (around the universe) are susceptible to annihilation from catastrophic climate change: 

http://www.space.com/32711-searching-for-alien-life-are-we-alone.html (http://www.space.com/32711-searching-for-alien-life-are-we-alone.html)

Extract: "Drake's equation, for example includes the variable L, which stands for "the length of time such [technologically advanced] civilizations release detectable signals into space," according to the SETI Institute. When Drake wrote his equation in the 1960s, the value for L was thought of as the time between when a civilization discovered atomic energy and when that society managed to destroy itself through nuclear annihilation, Stanley said. "That's a totally reasonable way to think about the length of time of a civilization at the height of the Cold War," he said. "But there's been recent work … arguing that we shouldn't think about 'L' in terms of nuclear war. We should think about it in terms of environmental destruction. … That is, it's the time between the discovery of a steam engine and catastrophic climate change." "

Best,
ASLR ;)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 13, 2016, 02:56:02 PM
But it wouldn't be necessary for that catastrophic climate change to drive intelligent species to extinction. It only needs to put them back into the stone age. Our advanced civilization is not going to withstand the multiple catastrophes hurtling towards us. I still believe humanity will survive although 7 billion of us will be winnowed away.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: be cause on June 13, 2016, 03:04:09 PM
I would suggest the evidence is growing that we are not an intelligent species nor is this an advanced civilization .
                 B.C.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: philiponfire on July 21, 2016, 10:50:08 AM
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0679-trembling-tundra-the-latest-weird-phenomenon-in-siberias-land-of-craters/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0679-trembling-tundra-the-latest-weird-phenomenon-in-siberias-land-of-craters/)

though this might be of interest!
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 21, 2016, 02:47:57 PM
That is a cool little video, philiponfire!  Just a brainstorm, but if lightening struck the ground right there, there could be a tremendous boom.  (Well, a tremendous secondary boom!)  How deep would the explosion go?  Lightening strikes on beach sand certainly go down a ways (sometimes creating fulgurites).
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.scientificamerican.com%2Fbut-not-simpler%2Ffiles%2F2013%2F07%2FNP0IppT.jpg&hash=dcf4c0fc42d4aec0d071246d5fdaa0eb)
Edit: the above image is a fake.  The following is real.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.scientificamerican.com%2Fbut-not-simpler%2Ffiles%2F2013%2F07%2F0.jpg&hash=71f41abe8e78c783b6020e9dc50e08ff)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Buddy on July 21, 2016, 03:00:33 PM
I would suggest the evidence is growing that we are not an intelligent species nor is this an advanced civilization .
                 B.C.

Boy.....you've got that right....FOR SURE.

Pretty amazing.  Watching some of the Republican National Convention in the United States leaves a person pretty "empty".  Not that the Democratic NC will be much better.  But....just the sight of Newt Gingrich on TV makes my skin crawl.  EGO....EGO.....EGO.  He wreaks of it.

Mankind has a LONG WAY to go.  Sure hope we make more advances in our thought processes before we destroy ourselves.....



Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Ajpope85 on May 09, 2017, 04:41:41 PM
http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/ (http://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0905-7000-underground-gas-bubbles-poised-to-explode-in-arctic/)

20 March 2017

Bulging bumps in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas believed to be caused by thawing permafrost releasing methane.

Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled 'bubbles' expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.


The article itself is kind of light on details but has several images.
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Forest Dweller on July 02, 2017, 09:55:36 AM
2 new craters being reported today, accompanied by explosions and fire.
Photos and video in the article here:

http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/big-bang-and-pillar-of-fire-as-latest-of-two-new-craters-forms-this-week-in-arctic/ (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/big-bang-and-pillar-of-fire-as-latest-of-two-new-craters-forms-this-week-in-arctic/)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Reallybigbunny on July 21, 2017, 06:35:12 AM
The Guardian has an article today Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout and Anthrax.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/20/hell-breaks-loose-tundra-thaws-weatherwatch (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/20/hell-breaks-loose-tundra-thaws-weatherwatch)



Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Anne on September 11, 2017, 05:20:42 PM
Two months after it erupted, methane is still escaping from the Seyakha blowhole on the Yamal peninsula.
Fresh analysis of a new geological phenomenon shows how gas is still gushing from a submerged crater caused by a fierce methane gas explosion in northern Siberia in June.
A 'pillar of fire' from the eruption was caused by stones and pebbles being thrown together as they were thrust out of the ground, sparking the swoosh of gas, like in an oven, a leading expert believes.
Reindeer and dogs from a nearby nomadic encampment fled in terror at the fireball, with some debris thrown as far as 200 metres from the epicentre.
A 50-metre deep funnel or crater was immediately filled by water from the Myudriyakha River flowing beside the site of the explosion.
Dr Anton Sinitasky, director of the Arctic research Centre in Yamalo-Nenets region [...]said: 'I can confirm that there was really a fire burning over the Seyakha funnel. We need to rely on the words of eyewitnesses. It lasted for one or one-and-a-half hours.
'Everything depended on the gas jet power.
'We think that the cause of the ignition was pebbles thrown by the eruption.
'The pebbles collided and struck a spark.
'It was like in gas oven - one spark was enough to set the gas on fire.
'When the power of gas jet began to decrease, the burning stopped.
'But the methane continues to leak from the funnel, so we have been able to take samples.'
Much more, including video, photographs and further speculation, in The Siberian Times. (Usual caveats apply.)
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/ (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/)
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: nicibiene on September 12, 2017, 07:23:43 AM
Much more, including video, photographs and further speculation, in The Siberian Times. (Usual caveats apply.)
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/ (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/video-shows-methane-leaking-from-beneath-an-arctic-river-after-spectacular-eruption/)

The russian humor (sarcasm?) about it is to admire in the video. Playing "Highway to hell" with earth turning upside down.  :o :o :o
Title: Re: Siberian permafrost hole/blowout
Post by: Forest Dweller on September 13, 2017, 10:16:40 AM
The interesting bit to me being:

"It is all about monitoring,' said Dr Sinitasky.

'I know that oil and gas producing companies have maps of such objects and monitor them constantly.

'I have heard that for example Gazprom-Dobycha Yamburg make punctures and release gas to avoid eruption risk.

'When I was working at VNIIGAZ, I made a map of such objects for Gazprom.'

He said: 'The companies are very interested in minimising risks, they do not need any accidents, so they make maps and observe these objects very closely.

'As for the general map of such objects... The Institute of Oil and Gas Problems keeps a database on sites being discovered using satellite data.
The Earth Cryosphere Institute probably has its own database.'

Puncturing pingo's ey?
It would be nice if the good folks at Gazprom shared some footage of that...