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Messages - bbr2314

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 02:06:25 AM »
The abrupt change in Arctic conditions this May-June is unprecedented IMO. As 2007 coincided with the start of the Great Recession and 2012 also occurred during a slowdown (although it was less pronounced / possibly less of a factor vs. other things (?)), perhaps this is a partial explanation for the conditions we have seen unfold in 2019. I would expect that a large reduction in SO2 emissions from emerging economies (ahem particularly China due to the trade war) may be resulting in a temporary amplification to global +AGW influenced temperatures.

While China is still a smaller economy than the U.S., it contributes the lion's share to global SO2 emissions. With manufacturing showing signs of serious impact due to the general economic conditions combined with the U.S. tariffs, a 20% reduction in SO2 emissions is probably substantial enough for a .1 or .2F+ of overall AGW, with particularly outsized impact on the Arctic. Why not point to a possible cause if it's staring us in the face?

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-industrial-output-grows-at-slowest-pace-in-17-years

Coincidentally or not, 2002 also had a very similar pattern in the Arctic, which is perhaps more extraordinary considering it was 17 years ago. Of course 2019 is much hotter overall, but it also features the warmth signature in the Siberian seas resulting from an early / abrupt melt of snowcover.

It would not be surprising IMO that this is occurring in part due to the disproportionate probably reduction in Asian SO2 emissions that is now underway. That is a big shift in a critical gas for mitigating insolation at ground level. If anyone has any additional numbers re: SO2 by country in recent years it would be great if you can provide bc the data appears pretty sparse.

2
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: June 20, 2019, 10:23:56 PM »
Hindu nationalists are in power. The population keeps growing. The need for more energy will only get bigger, a lot bigger. But i think they are to late. And that's the moment the scenario of a nuclear war steps in.
It's way too late.. Chennai is already dry, major city after major city could also run dry this year + next.

RE: prokaryotes -- nothing can be done. I guess they could do desal but they have no $. The "day zero" is already here.

The biggest point of tension between India and Pakistan is the waters flowing from the Himalayas... the new Indian dam on the Indus (I think) is in violation of a long-established treaty re: water rights.

What can be done? At this point the only solution is mass depopulation. At first I guess it will happen through "natural" means but as desperation increases, the nukes will fly.

3
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 19, 2019, 10:40:31 PM »
High Temperature Records Will Be 'Smashed' in Coming Century
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-high-temperature-century.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01891-3

Climate change will cause some regions of the world to "smash" high temperature records every year in the coming century, researchers warn. That will push "ecosystems and communities beyond their ability to cope," according to the authors of the study published online June 17 in Nature Climate Change.

The researchers used 22 climate models to forecast future summer temperatures. They determined that by the end of the 21st century, temperature events "will be so extreme that they will not have been experienced previously."

High monthly mean temperature records will be set in 58 percent of the world every year, with the greatest impact in developing countries and small island nations, according to the researchers. The highest monthly mean temperature records will occur in 67 percent of the least developed countries and 68 percent of small island developing states.


Maps indicating the number of high monthly records set per decade during the period 2070–2099.

Scott B. Power et al. Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century, Nature Climate Change (2019)
It is hard to take these studies seriously when they all but ignore the input of increasing springtime SWE melt and Greenland mass wasting / snow melt. I see the little blip in the NATL but seriously, we are already witnessing much more severe effects over a very wide area, and by the 2070s it would be exceedingly difficult to imagine the impacts are not exponentially more severe given the expected situation re: Greenland wasting.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:23:24 PM »
This is a very nice graphic created by Zack Labe that shows the YTD temperature anomalies across the arctic.

Parts of Alaska and the Beaufort are 5 degrees centigrade (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981-2010 average.
This isn't exactly accurate -- it is 925MB which is not the surface (though it is surely accurate for the 925MB level).

The attached shows from 45-90N YTD anomalies in C. A large part of the Arctic is indeed +5C or higher vs normal.

The yearly anomalies are much worse than 2012. But 2016 actually had a higher core of heat over the heart of the Arctic (although 2019 has more heat in the Pacific periphery, it also has less over the ATL side).

It looks like things are slowly shifting to a state where the PAC retreat is becoming more steady and sustained year over year while the ATL fluctuates. I would suspect this is due to the accumulating freshwater anomalies derivative of +snowfall in North America and Eurasia, and increasing snowmelt / SMB discharge from Greenland.

Because of where Greenland is situation, this is resulting in a steady worsening of the PAC as AGW accelerates, and increasing fluctuations on the ATL side between very warm and very cold (with the cold extreme seemingly winning out more and more as Greenland and the SWE feedbacks have swung into overdrive post-2012 more often than not).

I think this dichotomy and the resultant pattern of anomalies in the NHEM maps below indicate something fairly important beyond the sea ice. If 2012->2019 is sustained through 2019->2026 we will not need a BOE for catastrophe to occur. 2019 has now easily surpassed 2013's impact on North American agriculture. It is very easy to imagine an even worse year (or CONSECUTIVE worst-ever years) occurring in an imminent timeframe (i.e. before 2026). At that point substantial geopolitical ramifications from food shortages are likely to begin occurring in widespread areas, let's hope they don't all happen at once. We have achieved a horrible outcome in 2019 following a milquetoast minimum. What happens if we do see a September area # below 2M KM^2 by 2026, as most would agree is very likely? It will not be good....

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 02:00:51 AM »
I will apply the term 'catastrophe' to the melting of the ice 'up north' without feeling any sense of exaggeration . The catastrophe of the ongoing thaw/melt in the East Siberian and Laptev seas is that it is another of the boxes ticked on the way to a season melt-fest .
 As A-team points out such weather is secondary to the real story of the season .. the unprecedented export of a large part of the multi-year ice to destruction . The export continues over the coming week with the wind blowing from the ESS/Laptev toward Barnetz/Fram . A large part of the remaining older ice will move into the killing zone to make way for the new ice so it can make way for open water .
  One of the results is that much of the colder air in the forecast is in Barnetz and Kara while the Siberian / Pacific side of the Arctic basin is basking in temperatures we in W Europe would appreciate atm.
 Then there was the snow .. strong arguements that extra snow on shore and ice would help delay the melt. No snow on shore or on onshore ice ..
 So I agreed with AM2's anguish at seeing yesterday's SMOS image . Even if it may not accurately reflect reality , it does reflect ongoing melt and the melt is going on and on , as am I . :)  b.c.
+500 to your post :)

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 12:33:09 PM »
Will the Mt Sinabung Volcano in Indonesia that just erupted affect the melt season this year?

https://climatecrocks.com/2019/06/09/cheering-the-volcano/

The three-month eruption in Hawaii last year was thought to release so much SO2 as to affect Cali. weather this year.  People don't realize we don't need a 'SUPER-VOLCANO' to create 'years-without-summer' as did happen three to four times in the last three hundred years alone.  Yeah, Climate change may be bad... but a single 'non-super-volcano' could wipe us out practically overnight - At any time!

The answer , apparently, is No! ?

NASA AIRS sat did not see enough SO2 in the column to impact climate?
Also Kilauea definitely did not inject past the tropopause, which is required for non-localized SO2 impacts...

Agung and the Kamchatka volcanoes DID break the tropopause last year, however, as Sinabung has this year (although as posted, its observed SO2 contribution has been fairly small).

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?
« on: June 06, 2019, 06:12:49 PM »
sequence .. 2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 +3 = 2019 .. b.c.
So the world ends in 2022-2023? I could actually see that happening.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 02, 2019, 11:15:41 PM »
In the inner basin, 2012 much worse in the Siberian sector, and in the Atlantic sector, with 2019 much worse in the Pacific sector. Easy to see how 2012 has a big cliff coming up soon with all that thin ice. Thing is, the thick Atlantic sector of 2019 is mostly doomed by September anyway, so that may make it an even match, 2012 will take the lead but 2019 can still catch it with the right weather.
I disagree here. The Siberian sector in 2012 wasn't actually that low in concentration, SMOS was picking up on melt ponding. 2019's ice is insufficiently thick to maintain melt ponding in the same region. Your point re: the ATL front is also valid. So the PAC front is where differences matter most IMO and in that regard, 2019 is blowing 2012 out of the water.

Here is the May anomaly map (2019-2012). As you can plainly see, 2019 was much warmer across the entire Arctic, but was especially warm across the CAB.

My "triangle of cooling" between the Rockies, Hudson Bay, and the Great Lakes is also especially evident this month, but even moreso when comparin Jan-May vs 2012. Abrupt climate change? It is happening now... interesting to note that most of Eurasia is also now cooler than 2012 (only slightly), with subsequent warming limited to the NW Rockies, Japan, and the High Arctic (I would imagine this is the manifestation of continued accumulation of oceanic heat content alongside +continental snowfall / volume, although both Eurasia and North America hovered around +1SD for most of May, that is sufficient to result in minor / substantial cooling relative to the "worst" year of 2012 in most locations).

9
The models show intervals of warmth, but overall, Quebec looks to have the lowest 500MB heights in the hemisphere by the medium-long range. And it comes with... you guessed it...



Will it be sustainable? No. But will it be sufficient to retain cover through summer across the mountains? We shall see. I think this illustrates why Quebec has permafrost so much further south than western Canada -- it is both elevation, proximity to Hudson Bay's sea ice, and proximity to the Greenland ice cap. And, in recent years -- as in this year as well -- the worsening area of anomalies in the NATL.

The NATL anomalies have cooled further over the last 30 days as all the snowmelt has reached the ocean.


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 10:55:24 AM »
<snip>
Neven, can you please delete all the HelloMeteor posts, they ruined the past page even with all the moderation you have done. If someone doesn't want to educate themselves on basic terminology they have no business posting here (and it means they haven't bothered reading anything before posting either). Feel free to delete this post as well.  :)

<No, I'm not deleting any more posts, but I am considering buying you a course on 'how do I only quote the parts I'm commenting instead of the whole goddamn exchange'; N.>

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 25, 2019, 09:42:25 PM »
The upcoming / imminent pattern looks like the worst we have ever seen for the high Arctic at this time of year. The satellite pictures are already shocking. This is truly unprecedented IMO.



As others have noted / hinted, checking EOSDIS, most all of the PAC sector is now light blue in imagery. Unlike previous years where the advance halted before Wrangel Island, I think 2019 will see the advance continue fairly rapidly into the Chukchi and Beaufort, with most of both seas gone by 7/1.

Perhaps the biggest impact of this will not be a BOE, which is unlikely (though a record minimum? increasingly possible). But, I think it would be the accumulation of insolation in open water that has never been this open in recorded history. This is likely to result in worst-ever cyclonic activity in the High Arctic in late summer and autumn (IMO). And that is likely to translate into record-breaking disruptions for the hemispheric pattern as well, i.e., chaos in the mid-latitudes, where we all actually live.

Finally: I am shocked by the fires in Canada this year. I had been gung-ho on a worst-ever Siberian fire season, and still am. But Canada.... wow! I think this is a culmination of the worsening oscillations between hot and cold killing vegetation, as well as the warming / dissipation of permafrost. That is leading to increasing amounts of vegetation that is dead, and peat bogs that are now accessible to flames. Combined with what we are already seeing, this year is shaping up to be the worst-ever for extent and area.



PPS: it is worth noting that Slater's model shows a record-low for 7/14, of 7.75 million KM^2. But the picture is worse than that. As of 7/14, Slater's model shows most of Hudson Bay still covered to substantial %. Same with Baffin. That ice is going to be gone by 9/1. We have an abundance of "easy" ice remaining, and even if a smidgen does survive the melt season, this will result in sustained momentum through August, and steep cliffs whenever ^^^ does melt out.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 17, 2019, 03:21:18 PM »
Theres a lot of dangerous stuff going on this year up there.

Will this be the year that shouts "hey world look at me now"
The world won't notice or care about the Arctic sea ice any more than it has since 2012. But, they will notice and care about the worsening disasters that happen due to the accelerating collapse of the three-cell system. I would expect epic floods, heatwaves, cyclones, and blizzards as we enter the peak of summer and drift into autumn and early winter, with new extremes set in many locations (mostly hot, many wet, many dry, some cold, some snowy).

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 08, 2019, 11:03:55 AM »
Siberia is also now rapidly losing its snowcover in the highest latitudes. Scroll EOSDIS at link for the full picture. As these losses accelerate expect the Laptev gap and ESS / Chukchi to begin melting and retreating in earnest. These are the regions where ice formation was most below normal this winter (and most of the Kara).

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2019-05-08-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-3134673.7846731436,925263.8615537761,2108206.2153268564,3472975.861553776

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: May 05, 2019, 10:11:24 PM »
So Nico Sun gets the medal. Will Tealight get upset ?
Will they send rude letters to the science journals about each other?

And by the way, now the regional Arctic models are up and running, with the key separating out of the high Arctic seas, will he or him or they enter the lists on foreasting the Arctic sea ice minimum?

Tealight, you derive AWP using sea ice area and then use this as a basis to calculate the energy available to reduce sea ice thickness ? How do you translate reduced thickness into resulting sea ice area and extent? A sea might have remaining ice piled up in one area  or spread out giving a higher extent value due to varying winds and currents?

Ps: An impressive piece of work. What with the work on glaciers as well - stunning.
Tealight and Nico Sun are the same person...

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 03, 2019, 10:42:21 PM »
Has the max been reached?  ;)
Greta Thunberg: I have Aspergers
ASIF posters responding to Neven's joke: WE ALL HAVE ASPERGERS

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 29, 2019, 04:23:46 PM »
Beyond the enduring polar heat of the next week or so, the next event to watch (IMO) is the +500MB pulse incoming from Central Asia in sync with the developing cyclone in the Indian Ocean (either coincident, responsible, or both for the +500MB pulse). This can be seen dominating most of northwest Siberia by D10 on the 00z EURO but I wonder if it will end up drifting into the Arctic.

The below map is +144 hours and the +500MB area is over Kazakhstan/ish here, and the Indian Ocean cyclone is also visible.



If this heads more towards the Arctic and lingers less in Siberia, it could result in a continuation or worsening of impending conditions, and it must also be noted new +500MB blocking also appears in force in the NE PAC by D10 on the 00z EURO as well. There may only be a brief respite from the short-medium range +0C temps before many areas face similar conditions once more.

17
Chicago has a chance of seeing its largest post 4/25 snowstorm on record. I think the city will only see a little bit but the suburbs are now shown receiving up to 10" by the 00z modeling suite and the trend has been colder. That this is preceding the Arctic heat wave is no coincidence IMO, as the Arctic is spilling its guts into the mid-latitudes.


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 23, 2019, 07:24:02 PM »
o boy


The anomaly is very strong.  however, it is also paired with a huuuuuuge inflow of atmospheric water vapor which will suppress solar heating and will also produce large snow on CAB.
That's the question, isn't it? We have been dealing with these dueling feedbacks since 2012 it seems. However, I suspect that it will not produce large snows, but rather, rain, at least over Beaufort / Chukchi / ESS (IMO, could easily be wrong).

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 23, 2019, 08:00:08 AM »
o boy



GFS has joined the EURO party





This is by D7-8. The incursion / setup is well underway by D5-6. This would result in outright melt as well as melt ponding across a "yuge" portion of the Arctic.

The Canucks are also now in agreement!


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 21, 2019, 10:45:22 PM »
Yikes!


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 05, 2019, 05:54:35 AM »
JAXA -70K. 2016's final descent below our current number occurred on 4/16 that year (a record for the date). If we follow 2010s averages we will maintain the record quite easily through early May, and in a month we should be below 12M KM^2 (avg loss of 1.2M KM^2 through 5/5).

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 31, 2019, 10:32:14 AM »
I think we are seeing a possible perfect storm forming this year. I am very surprised by this occurring after the widespread record snows across North America this year. We have seen the most sustained March warmth across the Arctic to date of any recent year, perhaps excluding 2016 (but the focus of the heat that year was on the ATL not the PAC).

This weather is important IMO because it is following order of operations to obtain possible record summer extent minimum. Anomalous warmth focused on the Pacific periphery at a time of year when it should still be gaining mass is now sufficient to result in outright melt rather than mere cessation of gains. The Pacific heat will be complemented by rising temps across the ESS and Chukchi and Kara, as well. IMO, this is pointing toward a very early volume max for the Arctic and a record early start to steep extent losses. Whether this results in a record minimum remains to be seen.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 21, 2019, 11:35:26 AM »
 :o



It is absurdly early in the season for sustained heatwaves / +0C temps into the Arctic, but here we are...





The pre-conditioning and melt ponding from current model output over the next two weeks leads me to believe we are not in for a meek start, middle, or finish to the melt season.

We also have data in from the 18th. Attaching the departures vs. normal, and the departure vs. 2012. That is indeed an area of +30C temps (vs 2012) appearing over a wide swath of NW North America. 30C is 54F. That is nothing short of catastrophic re: impending melt.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 20, 2019, 09:34:31 AM »
Snowcover is now melting very very quickly across NW Canada. Airmasses may soon have a completely snow-free path into the Beaufort, even if Quebec remains intact. I think this may spell a very early melt-out of the Beaufort, which would starkly contrast what happened last year.



It is also worth noting that Eurasia is also seeing major deficits in any locations that aren't immediately adjacent to the Arctic Ocean, similar to Canada but more widespread. We may be in for a very early start to the melt season across Beaufort, ESS, and Chukchi in particular (no point mentioning Bering because it is already on the way to ice-free).

If the 00z models are correct, most of NW Canada will be entirely snow-free within the week, which would be absurdly early relative to normal.

26
WOW!



NW Canada is now bleeding severely red.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2019, 10:53:45 AM »
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 09, 2019, 11:33:20 PM »
A comparison of HYCOM (apples to apples, otherwise not as useful) for this date this year vs. last year shows much thinner ice across most of the CAB, but especially peripheral to most of Eurasia. It looks like there is practically no thick ice adjacent to Siberia this year, a fairly dramatic drop from 2018.

On the other side, it looks like there is much thicker ice in Baffin and NE of Greenland, as well as a decent chunk NW of the Bering. However, all of these regions are likely to melt out anyways.

I suspect that the SWE situation in North America (now above 2018!) will seriously blunt momentum in Hudson Bay, Baffin, the CAA, and parts of the CAB through solstice. But on the other side of the planet, despite high SWE, Eurasian snow extent is now much below normal, and looking to drop substantially further as we head through the extended range. Temperatures have also been much above normal across large swathes of Siberia.

IF we do not see a surprise / substantial cold period take hold across Siberia in March and April, there could be a record early arrival of spring across much of the region, and the state of the sea ice in the ESS / Chukchi is so abysmal that this could translate into a major problem come May and June. It also looks like the FYI is thinner in the Beaufort vs. 2018, which should (IMO) result in the same "poofage" we saw occur in August of 2018 happen earlier in 2019 (especially when the heat is acting in concert with a snow-free blast furnace developing over Eurasia).





29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 02, 2019, 12:23:01 PM »
It is worth noting that as the Bering melts out, the Great Lakes are actually still icing. An Arctic outbreak should ensure that this continues for the next week or more. They are on the verge of cracking the top 3 recent years for early March (1979, 1994, and 2014  -- 2015 may be on the list as well?).

We need 86% to beat 1994 and approach 2014's record, it seems very doable given expected conditions.


30
D10 forecasts are becoming quite aggressive with impending snowfall. 00z CMC shows deep falls across very wide areas.



Therefore I think it is unlikely we see a SWE max until at least D10+ although there is probably one coming soon thereafter (within a week or two?). Last year we saw four maximums with the highest occurring in early April for North America.

We are about 150KM^3 ahead of 2018 at the moment as well -- about 11%.



Last year saw a slight overall gain in March (with maxes intermixed). It would be quite interesting if this year added substantially more mass as it would indicate that this "reaction" can indeed be sustained much later into spring if sufficient momentum is built up. Maybe the near complete melt-out of the Bering and its potential non-recovery (unlike 2018) could be the push needed for that to occur (+blocking, +water vapor, +northerly winds sweeping down from Greenland into North America).

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 06, 2018, 05:08:58 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 5th, 2018:
     10,641,797 km2, an increase of 30,204 km2.
     2018 is now the 4th lowest on record.
Calling FeelTheBurn and his denier-talk re: excellent refreeze. Bueller? Bueller?

32
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: December 04, 2018, 05:30:58 AM »
Jeez!


Buddy, Rob, and now bbr.


A triad of the trite who support the strong as they harangue the helpless.


They defend the indefensible, assured that the powerful have their back.
Their research is a cursory scan of the front page of an Operation Mockingbird publication. Not surprisingly the editorials, even the op-eds are in agreement. An amazing confirmation!


If their position is assailed, they may go as far as the Atlantic Council, or some other CIA or MIC approved NGO in search of verification. Confirmed Again, and this time by Acronyms, Amazing!


Very little thought is required, and absolutely no introspection. Thinking may not come easy, and might produce undesired results. Troubling results that disagree with the consensus spouted by all of the major (news)? sources.


Their thoughts are of such value that they are hoarded, hidden away 'neath the mass of drivel that the MSM has injected into their oh so willing conscious minds - if consciousness is the correct word to describe this state of binary acceptance or rejection of ideas, based solely on what a favored talking head has just intoned.


Feel free to spout your nonsense, and don't feel personally rejected when others reject your conclusions. It's not you're ideas we object to, it's the trite crap that has been planted into your mind, that you expel virtually unmolested by your own grey matter.


We've never been exposed to you're ideas.
Terry
You seem like an angry prole who does not consider the ramifications of your idealism. Idealism does not work. Calling Ukrainians fascists and Nazis won't justify another Russian invasion, either, as they have been consistently under Russian's oppressive thumb throughout history (it seems like the Holodymyr is outright forgotten by you and many others).

It is easy to sit on the sidelines from some random place in Canada as you contribute nothing to society and kvetch about its failings. This is your fault, not society's.


Just when did these past "Ukrainian Invasions" by Russia occur? You're surely not referencing the Allied defeat of Fascist Ukraine?


The Poles and Jews killed by order of Ukraine's hero Stepan Bandera's certainly believed they were being "exterminated" by fascists and Nazis, but perhaps their surviving relatives are just too personally involved to be rational. I'd considered the Waffen SS flags and the Swastikas they march under to be adequate proof of their affiliation, but some deny their own eyes.


I'm amazed that you're aware of my small contributions to Canadian society, congratulations on your research. There are a few however that might take issue with your conclusion that they are entirely without value. Perhaps even some still posting here who assisted by providing charts and graphs for various lectures.
I've no idea what it is that you believe I, and not society should take the blame for. A hint might help?


Should I assume that you're referring to the Holomodor, when so many Soviets suffered from the crop failures so prevalent during those dust bowl times? It was certainly a good thing that Canada was able to supply wheat to the Soviets in the mid 50's, the next time the Soviet crop failed. It cost us an ambassador killed by the CIA, but it's something almost all Canadians take pride in.
I'm sure I'd have remembered a word like Holodymyr if only for the unusual spelling.


Terry
The Ukrainian spelling is Holodymyr. But you don't acknowledge Ukraine as a country or a culture and instead continue labeling it as Soviet. So, enjoy your ignorance. 

Fun fact: my family was personally victimized by the Russians upon their third-to-last invasion in 1939 (another fun fact: Russia re-invaded in 1944 and is currently invading once more). They left before they could come back again to finish the job. Ukraine has been invaded 3X in the last 75 years alone by the Russians. You are a fat boob.

33
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: December 04, 2018, 02:40:33 AM »
Jeez!


Buddy, Rob, and now bbr.


A triad of the trite who support the strong as they harangue the helpless.


They defend the indefensible, assured that the powerful have their back.
Their research is a cursory scan of the front page of an Operation Mockingbird publication. Not surprisingly the editorials, even the op-eds are in agreement. An amazing confirmation!


If their position is assailed, they may go as far as the Atlantic Council, or some other CIA or MIC approved NGO in search of verification. Confirmed Again, and this time by Acronyms, Amazing!


Very little thought is required, and absolutely no introspection. Thinking may not come easy, and might produce undesired results. Troubling results that disagree with the consensus spouted by all of the major (news)? sources.


Their thoughts are of such value that they are hoarded, hidden away 'neath the mass of drivel that the MSM has injected into their oh so willing conscious minds - if consciousness is the correct word to describe this state of binary acceptance or rejection of ideas, based solely on what a favored talking head has just intoned.


Feel free to spout your nonsense, and don't feel personally rejected when others reject your conclusions. It's not you're ideas we object to, it's the trite crap that has been planted into your mind, that you expel virtually unmolested by your own grey matter.


We've never been exposed to you're ideas.
Terry
You seem like an angry prole who does not consider the ramifications of your idealism. Idealism does not work. Calling Ukrainians fascists and Nazis won't justify another Russian invasion, either, as they have been consistently under Russian's oppressive thumb throughout history (it seems like the Holodymyr is outright forgotten by you and many others).

It is easy to sit on the sidelines from some random place in Canada as you contribute nothing to society and kvetch about its failings. This is your fault, not society's.

34
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: December 03, 2018, 07:11:07 PM »
blah blah blah *vitriol vitriol vitriol* if you hate Western imperialism so much go move to the developing world and see how long you last and how much you enjoy it.
Is this satire?

Are you asking me to move to a developing country, to teach me a lesson on imperialism? But, just so we're clear, so I would shut up about imperialism?

I dunno about you. But if I firsthand experienced the open slave markets in Libya,the disfigured depleted-uranium children in Iraq, the white phosphorous scarred people of Baghdad, the religious fundamentalists in Afghanistan, the victims of agent orange in Vietnam, the fascists in Ukraine, the child miners of Congo; I would say to myself, maybe I should criticize the structures and decisions that led to this horrible suffering.

But you.... "see this? You little punk? How about you shut your mouth and enjoy what you have. Don't rock the fucking boat. Or you'll end up in the pits just like the rest of them"
Wow. Sounds like you were either complicit in implementing our benevolent imperialism or you have impeccably bad timing and a life of bad choices behind you.

Ukraine is not fascist FYI and it is sickening to see Lurk cloak his anti-Semitism behind a ridiculous attack on the only true democracy in the Middle East. Israel is a bastion of stability and progress and the people who think otherwise are usually the same ones that would have supported the Holocaust (seems like you have no problem with the Holodymyr either).


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 21, 2018, 10:26:58 PM »
Not the same Hudson Bay region as used in other products - This one includes a chunk of the Labrador Sea, and excludes half of Foxe Basin.

But it's at a 25 year high for the date (same week), and by a reasonable margin.

It would have been quite impressive... but then bbr set the anchor at 75%, and there's a long way to go to get there yet  ::)
Yes and oops. I guess general predictions "early refreeze coming in X region" are better than "X will be at Y% by day Z". Live and learn / oh well!

36
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 08, 2018, 08:13:04 AM »
Gawd! Get me my fainting couch. bbr has posted some research.
Get your fainting couch ready again. I think there is a good chance Boston sees 120-150"+ this winter and ends up completely paralyzed.

Snow-atmospheric coupling = impending catastrophe. We are so f*cked! 2017-18 was incredible and we are already so BEYOND last winter. WTF


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 08, 2018, 07:59:27 AM »
Since the Beaufort, CAB, ESS, Laptev is pretty much ice covered now, here is amsr2-uhh for the current freezing season, sep24-nov6
I expect the Laptev closing will mean the recent gallop of century+ extent increases will drop off, and 2018 may start pushing against the previous lows for date again.  The Kara refreeze may make up for some of that, but after that, the Chukchi and Barents between them have an awful lot of heat to dissipate.
Don't forget Hudson's impending rapid ice up. But Chukchi, Barents, and Bering are going to result in a veryyyyy long stall afterwards, IMO. Baffin and Kara will be the only areas gaining.

Also: tonight's 00z EURO opens a black hole in Baffin. Wonder how this looks come verification / imagine it is substantially less progressive.



And it is not coincidental it is corresponding with what's unfolding over Quebec........ 2018 vs. 2017. Last year was phenomenal. And this year.... WTF!





38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 04:20:01 AM »
Great, now we are up to 11-day forecasts. Silly me, I didn't even know they existed.
They are ensemble forecasts (used for long-range) and it was a direct refutation of the idea it would be warm mid-month... all the models show otherwise. Do you know what ensemble means?

They are also 6-10 or 7-11 day forecasts, not D11. Those are 5-day averages. Why are you so nasty when you could just read the maps properly instead?

Also: the maps D2-3-4-5 are the same as ^, which is why I posted those first. I suggest you stop attacking me and start actually contributing to discussion. In case you are as bad at math as you are at reading, 120 hours out is 5 days away.


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2018, 10:40:09 PM »
Oooops. Comment by bbr2314 that I was replying to has disappeared.

this reminds me of asking some users who predicted the hudson would be frozen by the 15th of november still believe so?

i for my part don't believe that and think that hudson is holding out quite well. during summer there were repeated theories of very early refreeze of hudson and even more extreme predictions for greater parts of canada.

i personally do not believe in any wide spread re-glacification, after all the globe is warming and sooner or later retreat of the ice will happen everywhere.
I did say 11/15 for Hudson Bay and it isn't holding out well, unless, you mean the Hudson River. Foxe Basin is almost completely iced and I think we are on track for 50-75% coverage in HB by 11/15 (my prediction was 75%).

CAA is frozen earlier than ever and HB will do the same. So why don't you go bother looking at some graphs before launching into a random attack on me?

Also, SH: I deleted post regarding GB because the cold air went down into North America this wrong, and not Europe. 500MB was a bit deceiving, oops.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 24, 2018, 08:46:03 PM »
It is already happening. The idea that Greenland is going anywhere is also stupid. Look at the response we have seen with our current situation! Does anyone think the evolving situation isn't going to worsen in both directions (+ anomaly at Pole, -anomaly over Greenland / Canada)?

The albedo shifts are going to be catastrophic to the NHEM's old climate. We are probably going to see worsening cooling over North America the next ten years and worsening warming everywhere else, until Siberia starts to catch up with Canada again (who knows how icy Canada has to get for that to happen).

In the meantime, heat is continuing to accumulate year-over-year in the Arctic proper. But the notion this will result in a BOE rather than continued shifts is kind of silly. Does a Greenland-centric NHEM 500MB pattern result in less sea ice, yes, but I think there is a very good chance that we see a shift from the CAB to the CAA, with a floor somewhere around 1-1.5M KM^2 as the "re-organization" continues.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 04:31:40 PM »
Aggregating DJF 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 when the nuances of each year have been very different, particular, & a step by step evolution from each previous year, is kind of disingenuous.

In any case, 17-18 was generally cold in DJF with specific areas of warmth still present in areas like the Southwest US.

Another nuance is that contrary to El Cid's assertion, in 17-18, the highest latitude land areas in the Arctic *were* much warmer than in 16-17 (and vs. normal), and this was accompanied by consistent severe cold in Hudson Bay, much of Canada, and large parts of Asia (you can see that cold is now extending in both directions across the Atlantic due to the NATL cool pool + Greenland vortex while the Arctic PV was breaking off into both NW Siberia and Hudson Bay).

We are going to see this trend continue into 2018-2019. While parts of the Arctic are going into the freezer both literally and relatively vs. normal this year (Canada, bit of Siberia, Kamchatka, Mongolia, Himalayas), parts are now scorching well beyond any previous record. The Chukchi, Bering, Laptev, and Barentz  actually ALL share this feature re: warmth, with records continuously set all over the place.

The FRAM export the past several days has resulted in a major Greenland Sea ice discrepancy with most recent years, with 2018 now being in the lead. The way this occurred seemed to be unprecedented. We have lost a huge chunk of volume through both the CAA & Greenland Sea, but the question is, what happens next? How much is quickly melted by the Gulf Stream's northernmost tendrils (probably a lot)? And does any actually make it past the southern tip of Greenland?

If the last 12 months are any indicator, the Baffin / Labrador front is going to be extremely impressive this winter, and the Hudson refreeze should be mostly complete by 11/15. The cold in Baffin and Labrador is already very impressive vs. normal and ice formation is racing down from the MYI on Nares (with FYI also now forming on shorelines).

Will the Bering Strait freeze at all this year? We are two months and one week from solar minimum and the entire area is blazingly hot. Worse than 2016 or 2017. Evidently the bottom water has now given out as well. With the amount of Pacific water that has intruded into Chukchi and the western Beaufort, those spots will be harder-pressed to freeze vs. last winter as well.

I think one of the major implications of the situation in Bering is what is happening in HB / Baffin / Labrador. The shift since 2012 is remarkable and worsening. And if Wrangel Island is basking in occasional 50s into January and February, evidently cold becomes severely and significantly displaced to its SE into the US and Canada.

How much of the deficit of Bering / Chukchi will Okhotsk, Baffin, and Labrador make up in 2018-19? I don't think it will be enough to offset a record high minimum (combined with Laptev / everything else high latitude except Beaufort & CAA), but I think we will be surprised by how far the front advances this year, especially off the East Coast of Canada. With this fall's anomalies presenting as they have, I would not be shocked to see record #s blown away for Labrador Sea, and maybe even the Greenland Sea if it advances far enough. With so much heat in the Bering (and at depth), I think we could see a similar situation in the Sea of Japan as well.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2018, 05:23:13 PM »
As expected sea ice extent is rapidly returning to the normal of the past few years. The fresh water layer that forms from rivers flowing into the Arctic has had weeks of cooling and it is beginning to freeze up. The arm of sea ice that held out through the summer north of the ESS is rapidly gaining area. This ice arm is a near surface pathway for poleward fresh water flow. The freeze up pattern we are seeing now is what we should have expected.
The large area of +SSTs north of Siberia has also led to the major polar vortex being stuck in Greenland / CAA / North America, with the only snows over Asia contained to the Himalayas / Tibetan Plateau and Northeast Siberia. This has partially been responsible for the worsening +500MB anomalies over much of western Russia (no snow = low albedo, + adjacent warm SSTs nearby = WAY warmer vs. normal snow-covered values).

North America's extent is now above Eurasia's, and is quite likely to set an all-time October record. 6M KM^2 of continental extent on 10/12 does way more in terms of deflecting insolation than 5M KM^2 of sea ice wayyyy up north btw. I think this helps illustrates how, when oceanic heat accumulates to significant enough quantities AND large ice sheets remain extent, continental heat sinks become much more effective at resolving the planetary heat budget vs. oceanic ice caps.

While the see-saw of winter may temporarily be heavily favoring North America, I think Siberia will soon respond to all the open ocean with massive snowfall as well, so +500MB anoms are imminently likely to become much more focused over the Arctic proper vs. the distribution we have seen so far this October.

Final note: the least but perhaps most potent impact of the lack of snow in Western Siberia this autumn has been way less melt / way warmer temps / *no* coastal refreeze! Refreeze was well underway at all other points in history. The delayed coastal refreeze in Siberia and FRAM transport of the remaining sea ice could result in a springtime Laptev situation that mirrors what unfolded this year in Bering (which will also repeat the same in 2019). The refreeze season this year in Laptev will, IMO, be curtailed worse than any prior year.



...and PPS: I also just realized this may be the first point in autumnal history that North American snowcover has equaled / surpassed Eurasian. The difference to date this fall has been very dramatic.

The discrepancy can only get so bad as North America's smaller landmass means it runs out of area to cover quicker, however, with SWE building so early over such a wide area, 2018-2019 looks to be gunning for springtime North America volume numbers that are perhaps substantially even more impressive than 2017-2018 (which saw nothing like what has unfolded in Sept / Oct 2018 in the lead-up to record Mar / Apr / May #s).



43
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 04, 2018, 06:59:32 PM »
I feel like one morning we are going to wake up and the headlines will read about how thousands of South Floridians *didn't* wake up that day as they suffocated and died during sleep when a red tide bloom hit critical mass and wafted over coastal neighborhoods.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article219477125.html

What is the alternative? The blooms are now creeping toward Miami. They are getting worse over time. Large marine mammals are dying. So how long until they hit a point where humans are also overcome? With many experiencing respiratory issues as-is, things are not looking great.

44
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 30, 2018, 10:33:42 PM »
The "cold triangle" is expanding SE as the sun falls lower in the sky each passing day. Some of this may be muted but models (all three big ones) now showing first major snowfalls down to Denver and the western Plains States in the Lower 48.







Coverage should continue building more steadily into Quebec through D10. Volume anomalies may begin becoming more pronounced as the area subject to melt starts dwindling fairly quickly through October.

I wonder if the very steep impending gradient between snowfall across the Rockies / Plains + 80-85F+ SSTs in the GOM may also result in a very potent fall severe weather season?

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2018, 12:24:32 AM »
temps in the high Arctic continue to rise . Accordingly , today's dmi80 is over 8'C above average , again a record . Another way of looking at it .. temps are where they should have been 22 days ago .

Perspective .. the all time dmi80 record anomaly was last Feb .. @ 21'C  b.c.

ps Worldview today shows the Siberian arm of ice beautifully !  :)
Worldview also shows catastrophic losses along the ATL front NE of Svalbard (near whatever those other islands I am not Googling at the moment are called). The retreat over the past few days has been dramatic but accelerated even more today.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:55:17 AM »
I would guess the record 500MB blocking occurring / forecast in models is partially due to the worst-ever imbalance between continental snowfall and volume / area.

2012 had no snow at this point, except a bit near Kamchatka. The only other years that come close are 2005, 2008, 2010, 2013, and 2014. Of those, 2018 is still the strongest across North America. 2010 was strongest across Eurasia. 2013 and 2014 were more evenly distributed across both Eurasia and North America, while 2005 and 2008 had decent N America and not much Eurasia (still way less than 2018).

I think the *situation* of the pack this year has led to the dislocation of the PV into the CAA due to how the melt season unfolded. And that has followed into the late September situation of, once again, record Canadian snowpack.

While ice area and extent may not be at record lows, the *disparity* between ice area / extent and continental snowcover is now worse than any other year. This will encourage far stronger -500MB continental anomalies, and combined with the accumulation of heat in Bering / Laptev / far NATL, result in record +500MB anomalies across the Arctic for much of the winter. This is likely to accelerate snowfall across the NHEM as we continue into autumn, and will also result in a worst-ever refreeze across the PAC, ATL, and possibly Russian fronts.

While the area of the continents covered by snow always surpasses sea ice area / extent, the speed at which it will do so this year relative to the condition of the sea ice is what matters most.


47
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 16, 2018, 12:23:12 AM »
It looks like Edmonton may set its new September record in a day or two. I believe they have about 5CM currently, need 7CM to surpass 1965's 12.1CM. Coincidentally or not that winter was also a moderate El Nino.

https://www.thestar.com/edmonton/2018/09/14/disbelief-as-snow-hits-and-northern-alberta-farmers-scramble-to-save-crops-worth-millions.html

A northern Alberta farmer situated about 70 kilometres north of Grande Prairie — an area which was forecasted to get 10 to 15 cm of snow Wednesday — Sekulic had only heard stories from his grandparents about snow showing up so early in September.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/temperatures-rise-above-seasonal-values-in-the-prairies-cooler-pattern-dominates-second-week-of-september-threat-for-snow-northern-alberta-grand-prairie-hinton-calgary-edmonton/111884

Much colder air continues to invade much of northern and central Alberta leaving many places feeling 10-15 degrees below normal values. The potential is also growing for the second round of accumulating snow in Edmonton this weekend, which could help to mark one of the snowiest Septembers on record for the city. The current record dates back over 50 years ago when 12.9 cm fell during the September of 1965.

Records FYI

12.9CM 1965
12.2CM 1971
9.2CM 1984
8.4CM 2017

It is uncanny that we are seemingly repeating 2017-18 (but colder / snowier this yr IMO). Will Edmonton blow the 1965 record away by 9/30?


48
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 16, 2018, 12:20:29 AM »
Why east of the southern Rockies ?
I am not sure. I pick this region because of persistence (in the peripheral seasons it has been having increasingly - anomalies). But beyond persistence, I think it may have to do with the northern re-alignment of the Hadley Cells in the PAC / ATL & increasingly lopsided refreeze of CAA & Hudson vs. Bering and Barentz.

It would make sense that as Hudson / CAA spend more of the year ice-covered RELATIVE to Bering and Barentz, -500MB anomalies favorable for cold / snow shift to their vicinity, especially when Hudson & CAA have ice and Bering / Barentz do not.

The raring start 2018 has seen re: snowcover has to do partially, IMO, with the very high remaining extent in the CAA and slivers of sea ice remaining in Foxe Basin. Combined with the lack of ice in Bering and Barentz, this will favor a very early onset of winter across the Canadian shield which is now ongoing, as well as a very early complete refreeze of Hudson / CAA (just beginning in parts of the CAA).

For some reason, this seemingly favors severe cold over Alberta / Saskatchewan / Montana / Dakotas. I think it is because the moisture flux from all the excess water vapor results in much more consistent snowcover during wintertime, which is now extending to the early and late season. And all you need for severe negative monthly anomalies is consistent snowcover (in spring and fall, that is). The increasing fortitude of the CAA / HB ice is also now seemingly anchoring a perpetual vortex of major -500MB anomalies nearby.

49
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 15, 2018, 09:16:04 PM »
12z EURO says another 2-4" in Edmonton next 24 hrs. lol. It's September 15th!

Wonder how quickly Canada's major cities hit regular snowcover this year. I would bet the worst fall anomalies will be in the areas to the east of the southern Rockies and west of the Great Lakes.

50
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 15, 2018, 08:46:59 PM »
It snowed in my city, so obviously that totally disproves that it's still summer.  :)  (bet you thought I'd say something else.)

An early snowfall in Edmonton, Canada usually gets melted away.  It's not the earliest snowfall, but it does give us a chance of having a nice Thanksgiving this October.  (well, maybe.  That's just weather anyhow)  If you go by the really old legends, the turning of the leaves, which might have happened earlier than normal, implies that it'll be a long and cold winter for us.  We shall see.  (or not, if you eat and drink too much over Christmas.)

   
The real 'fun' comes when we get a real snowfall, and the roads weed out the people who remember how to drive in winter from those who've never learned.

It looks like it may continue snowing in Edmonton. This September is shaping up to be quite incredible if the D10 forecasts verify (they are all very similar between the models -- COLD and SNOWY across Canada). And this is only to 9/25!





2014 had the highest North American September snowcover anomaly in the Rutgers record back to the late 60s. This year already appears to be something like +1-1.5M KM^2 as of 9/15 (according to the Canadians). By the end of the month we should have a much wider gap vs. avg, in fact, we are already at where normal years are by 10/1.

I think 2018 now has a decent shot at taking the "snowiest September" crown from 2014. If conditions are bad enough by the end of September, I wonder what the odds are that we see an extremely early onset of severe winter weather across much of the continent through October / November, with commensurate absurdity RE: accumulated SWE?

With the conditions as bad as they were this spring, it is somewhat striking we haven't really seen a similarly scoped anomaly in the fall despite greater increasing fall snows (to date, in general). Maybe that is the next absurd thing to happen? It is sensible that springtime would be when anomalies can be greatest for SWE due to accumulated snowfall, but at some point (if we actually are heading towards localized ice age conditions), *if* the snowball is gaining momentum, we could rapidly see September / etc get much snowier as well (?)

This is the first year in the recent past I can recall September getting off to such a running start.



Volume is also making it onto the charts now. Hoorah!


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