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Messages - Archimid

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 09, 2019, 10:06:00 PM »
Global warming hasn't stopped. In many ways, the entire globe is going through a cold phase. Soon the record hot cold phase will become an even more record hot hot phase. Rinse and repeat.

Since 2007 the date of the first BOE has been getting closer and closer. Then it stopped at 2032 for the last few years.

Global warming is not stopping any time soon, why should the melt stop? Can fall snow lower albedo enough to counteract the warm oceans and wobbly polar vortex? Has winter ice hit a new minimum due to a very fast ice extent allowing more time for thickening? For how long? CO2 is still up there making everything warmer.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 07, 2019, 10:29:20 PM »
There must be some good research that settles the question nicely. I can't find it. In the meantime, some clarification.

First-year ice most certainly is more prone to melt than multi-year ice.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 06, 2019, 03:53:33 AM »
I think the hiatus is clear and obvious from Gerontocrat's graphs. Without the hiatus the Arctic would've been about ice-free by now.

The reasons for the hiatus are also relatively clear.

During summer the thick ice is gone so there isn't much easy volume to lose. The remaining volume of ice is in the Central Arctic Sea, protected from maximum irradiance and WAA by the oldest ice in the Arctic.

During winter, thin ice thickens faster than thick ice making the Arctic ice behave more like Antarctic ice.

And that's where we are. At least two heatsinks must be saturated before the march towards the first BOE can continue.

Given human made, CO2 induced global warming. Given Arctic Amplification. Given permafrost and methane activation, local to the Arctic. Given the disturbances in atmospheric currents inducing WAA. Given the lowered Albedo of Arctic Ocean. Given the Greenland crack.

 I don't think it will take long before the hiatus ends.

About the only thing working in our favor is the fall snow increase slightly lowering continental albedo.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 05, 2019, 12:36:18 PM »
Quote
I don't think Isaac Asimov's 3 laws of robotics have a chance.

No, they don't. They are meant to protect humans from AI, not from humans controlling AIs.  AIs are more dangerous as tools of the powerful than as self-aware algorithms.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 04, 2019, 12:28:37 PM »
Solar Electric Air Heater! (100W 12V) - 100W Solar Panel runs it! - PV space heating!! Ez DIY


6
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: November 03, 2019, 06:25:27 PM »
Giant water battery helps university cut energy costs by 40 per cent

https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/giant-solar-battery-helps-university-cut-energy-costs-by-40-per-cent-20191103-p5370v.html


Quote
A giant chilled water-battery is using the solar energy generated by 6000 solar panels on top of roofs at the University of the Sunshine Coast to chill water and save 40 per cent of airconditioning costs.

The idea has been so successful it will cut the airconditioning costs of the entire university and save $100 million within the next 25 years, while reducing emissions.

The details are sparse but the technology sounds intriguing.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 02, 2019, 03:58:50 PM »
Can You Survive Off-Grid with Tesla Solar & Powerwalls?


8
It's not a coin. It's an n sided dice, where n is given by the n-pole anomaly and its interaction with oceans and land.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 27, 2019, 01:27:31 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Performance vs Rivals: M3, C63 S & Giulia QV (EXTENDED) | Top Gear : Series 27


10
Quote
If I asked you to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

Let me rephrase the question. If I asked your society to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

At a society level, how do you ask a whole society to relearn a measuring system? If a law was passed today that banned the use of the metric system and required all new measures to be imperial how would that society?  What do you do with all your metric tools, rulers and books? 

And about neuroplasticity, you go ahead ask an older master in any field you like to change the basic units they work with and see what happens.

I agree that it needs to be done tho. The international system is clearly superior. How many good people are not maximizing their potential because they can't add or subtract fractions when simple decimals do nicely.

11
If I asked you to change from metric to imperial, how would you do it?

Just in case, the metric system is the superior system and should be adopted internationally, I just don't know how a society would go about doing that in an orderly fashion.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2019, 03:15:40 AM »
Exactly the area around the Greenland crack as talked about in the following thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.msg232576.html#msg232576

An awesome image of the area I'm referring to, as posted by uniquorn in the above thread


13
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 22, 2019, 02:05:51 PM »
Quote
What can they do?

Wait until prices are low enough. The more rich and middle-class people buy these systems, the cheaper they will become.

  If we are talking about homeowners living in poverty, once these systems become so good that they become part of the house like water heaters the initial cost of the system will be included in the mortgage.

 If we are talking about renters or people that live in government housing, once again the problem is on the people owning the housing, wether it is government, corporation or other not so poor people.

That is precisely the reason I cheer for Tesla with all my heart. If they succeed the chances that I, a relatively poor person, can achieve energy independence increase exponentially. Once energy is secured the most important layer of security against climate change is covered.

CO2 benefits are just the cherry on top.

14
This short video series by the Met Office talking all about global circulation is actually some of the best work I've seen actually illustrating the topic


Thanks for that video, from 4:03-4:28 explains what I believe to be the root problem. The polar front exists because the ice exists. Without ice then the temperature at the surface is warmer, removing the "force" created by the difference in temperatures/humidity.

15
I read sark as a person exploring a phenomenom he doesn't fully understand, but he is trying to. I believe he posts here with the hope of acquiring insight from other posters and at the same time informing us of the changes. The vagueness is a function of his unknowledge. Exploratory science at its best.

But instead of receiving input from those who claim this is "well known", he gets pointless criticism and calls to shut up. Peer pressure.

And on the apocalyptic calls, apocalypse is the expected outcome of these changes, once you remove the illusion of human permanence. They are just barely beginning and they are being felt across the hemisphere, almost directly. It is not going to get better. Sark is right on point on that too. Scary, sure, but said any other way is lying.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 18, 2019, 11:40:40 AM »
Thin ice melts faster than thick ice.  See this image from the previously linked reference:




Even at 3 m thick ice, 3% of incident radiation on Aug 6th somewhere on the Beaufort Sea makes it to the oceans. At 1 m as much as 15% makes it to the ocean.  The thinner the ice gets from there the more energy the ice lets through.

Then you start taking into account mechanical strength, fractures on the ice and geometry...

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:28:51 PM »
When we talk ice KkK focuses on area/extent, a lower-dimensional measure than volume that produces a very long term prediction. That way he can avoid the truth that the volume numbers reveal.

When we talk Hurricanes KkK focuses like a laser, on ACE, which only includes wind speed and duration. He must ignore the floods, the rapid intensification, the slower paths, and the increased destructiveness.

He must pretend that average = normal AND that ACE is the only average that matters. Lucky him for being able to do that. I guess I'm just jealous of his bliss.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: October 12, 2019, 11:45:39 AM »
They created a rechargeable world

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/

Quote
The 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry are awarded to John Goodenough, M. Stanley Whittingham and Akira Yoshino “for the development of lithium-ion batteries”. Through their work, they have created the right conditions for a wireless and fossil fuel-free society, and so brought the greatest benefit to humankind..




19
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 11, 2019, 05:07:55 AM »
As we near the end of the 2019 season, global cylconic activity has been near normal.  Higher Atlantic and Indian ocean storms have been counter by lower Pacific (both eastern and western) activity.

Global cyclonic activity has not been "normal". Ask anyone in the Bahamas.

 If you mean the sum of the cyclonic winds or some other cherry, then the word you are looking for is average, not normal.

There was nothing normal about the 2 cat 5s in the Atlantic, although if the world keeps warming it will be normal.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:20:00 PM »
I like using both the maximum and the minimum to glimpse into the future of the ice. Attached is an animation using the intersection of the trendlines of maximum volume and volume loss from 2007 to 2019.  Date of intersection estimated by sight, but it shouldn't be off by more than 1 year.

2032 has indeed been remarkably stable.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 06, 2019, 05:39:45 AM »
I imagine this is how some of the bears in here will react the first time they see Smart Summon.


22
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:24:20 AM »

Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.  The evidence that this state will be catastrophic is severly lacking.

Your fear plays tricks on you. I said it was likely to happen next decade, and I said it because to the best of my understanding the most likely date is somewhere around 2031 plus or minus some years. A BOE could happen any year now, given a low enough max volume like  2016-2017 and a strong melt season like 2012, 2016 and 2019. Thus the event of an ice-free Arctic next decade is very possible.


On the destructiveness of an ice-free arctic on the NH climate, I'm so sorry that you don't get it. It is difficult to explain the obvious to someone who doesn't want to understand the obvious.

A very dry, cold, old, central and large part of the world is undergoing an extraordinarily fast change. That change propagates to the rest of the NH. Climate Change like this happened before in the history of the earth, but never as fast (except the dinosaurs) and always followed by extinction.

A change this large, this fast, has certainly not happened in the history of human civilization, much less to a modern world with 7 billion people.
 

Quote
Fearmongering will not help the situation. 

 I am not fearmongering, because the threat is as real as it gets. I'm warning whoever would listen about the threat as best as I understand it, and I have made a considerable effort in understanding the threat.

On the other hand, you are telling people to ignore the danger. Pffft. I almost feel sorry for you when you finally realize your error.

23
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 30, 2019, 05:19:36 PM »
Quote
Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.

Wrong. My "agenda" is to portray the risk to the best of my understanding to promote action. It is not an exaggeration to say that we may be ice free in the North Pole in September next decade. It is downright likely. The consequences of this event ( or continuum of events that already started) will be catastrophic for the North Hemisphere and the world at large. We are just at the beginning of it and insurance is already failing.

The threat is as real as it gets. Fear is 100% warranted and expected. If you do not feel fear about this, then you do not understand the danger.

As Donald Trump clearly shows fear is one of the most powerful motivators of humans at a society level. Trump exploits xenophobia to make some Americans scared shitless of brown children to such an extent that they exert cruel and unusual punishment and violate their human rights to keep them away. They love it because it appeases fear, however fake the fear is, and Trump takes full advantage of it.

Fear of climate change is completely warranted. That fear will cause action, if properly channeled that fear will produce the correct action against the real threat. Denying the danger blunts the actual fear that we should have, blunting action.

Fear of real danger is very good and a necesary response to activate human defenses.

24
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 29, 2019, 04:18:23 PM »
You are all wasting your time. KkK has shown sufficient  intellectual capacity to understand the threat we all face, thus he does not have the benefit of ignorance that we can give others. He has obviously panicked about climate change and is trying to bring other down to the pits of panic with him. Like all other deniers, he has lost contact with reality due to fear. It is really not his fault at all. It is just a function of human psychology and the magnitude and scope of climate change.

This is on topic because panicky people like KkK and Trump actively hinder logical responses to climate change making the worst consequences of climate change worse.

26
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: September 23, 2019, 04:44:32 PM »
Everything can be perfectly predicted given enough data and processing power.

Nope. Given quantum uncertainty and the butterfly effect, predictions are doomed to fail sooner or later.

My speculation is that quantum mechanics are today's equivalent to the Ptolemaic model. The geocentric Ptolemaic model could accurate predict and describe the sky above, which was the observable universe at the time. Within its own sets of rules it was correct and extremely useful.

 Quantum mechanics are a very elaborate mathematical model that is extremely useful at making accurate predictions that are not fully understood but correct.

Our understanding of the universe is limited to our senses like sight and our perception of time. There may be a whole universe that we are missing in the same way Ptolemy couldn't see the universe we see today.

If such universe is ordered like all other physics, then QM weirdness disappears and order is restored. With it the butterfly effect disappears.

What you say is right, in theory. Real randomness occurs within our current mathematical framework. However, for the practical purposes of trying to find patterns on daily data vs monthly data there is much "noise" that is worth looking at before we get to QM, for the following reasons:

 1. The data points are limited to a few years.
 2. We don't have the time to get enough data points to make proper statistical analysis.
 3. We have a lot of well documented and well digested data for all kinds of variables that can be compared and establish patterns.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:22:08 PM »
To me, there is no such thing as random noise. Everything can be perfectly predicted given enough data and processing power. The reality is that enough data and processing power are very often not available.

So maybe, just maybe, by keeping the "noise" of the daily data, and being aware of other variables at different time scales insight can be gained that turns noise into useful knowledge.

I like using the most granular possible element for my volume charts for this reason. The data is noisier, but the noise may reveal patterns that averaged data may hide.

However, averaged data has many important uses. The other day I was comparing ENSO and PIOMAS. Averaged data over 2 months was very useful. Daily data would have been unnecessarily noisy.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 22, 2019, 03:17:42 PM »
It seems PIOMAS reached a minimum. Here is the updates maximum vs  loses graph. The ice free prediction moves closer to 2031. Average loss updated for 2019.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: September 21, 2019, 12:25:48 AM »
Interesting posts as usual Tom.

Quote
Computers are stupid: babies know what a face is within the first few months of being alive. For a computer to know what a face is, it must learn by looking at millions of pictures of faces.

Babies are born with a brain that evolved over 500 million years. Babies come loaded with face recognition software and highly specialized hardware to process faces.  The thing about computers is that you can re use code. So once one software stack learns how to recognize faces, potentially all future AIs could be built on top of that software.

Quote
This is a demanding process. It takes place inside the data centers we call the cloud, and much of the electricity that powers the cloud is generated by burning fossil fuels

That is not necesarilly true. Energy is certainly a huge consideration when processing huge data but if they are powered by renewables, who cares?

Look at what google is doing:

https://cloud.google.com/sustainability/


As an aside, an interesting video I saw the other day:

Multi-Agent Hide and Seek

Quote
We’ve observed agents discovering progressively more complex tool use while playing a simple game of hide-and-seek. Through training in our new simulated hide-and-seek environment, agents build a series of six distinct strategies and counterstrategies, some of which we did not know our environment supported. The self-supervised emergent complexity in this simple environment further suggests that multi-agent co-adaptation may one day produce extremely complex and intelligent behavior.





30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 04:37:25 PM »
if atmospheric talk of current changes with quick looks of the past and the future is off topic, might as well close the thread. 

While sark words are a bit cryptic they reflect exactly what we are seeing. Terra incognita. The unknown, the new. He follows it with actual data and animations. If it sounds scary, then you are understanding correctly. As a Daily null school checker for the last few years, his historic gifs are extremely useful for context.

Still, complaining and meta posts like this are the main pollutants of this thread this year. Real posts like killians daily predictions, freegrass and AN animations and now sark’s atmospheric posts are all on topic and real contributions.

31
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 19, 2019, 03:59:04 AM »

George Cornish, 51, Abaco’s chief councillor, said evacuating entire islands before a storm is preferable to changing the building code.
#
“From my point of view, we’ve never seen a hurricane like this in our life,” he said from the United States where he went after the storm. “I went through Hurricane Floyd that damaged docks and buildings and stuff and the damage wasn’t this. This was Category Five, maybe even a six. I don’t think the building codes needs to change. I think we have a proper building code that has stood the test of time of other hurricanes. I think they are strong but it’s just this hurricane is something we’ve never seen in our lives before. If you change the code, poor people and those in the middle class wouldn’t be able to afford to build.”

The thing is that this types of hurricane will happen more frequently, because of warmer waters an changing atmospheric patterns. This person, Mr. Cornish, who I assume to be a professional in charge of safe guarding the lives of their people is painfully unaware of it. Sadly, we are seeing these types of events more frequently and the rate and severity will keep increasing while the world warms and Earth systems change

.
Quote
Instead, Mr Cornish said massive hurricane shelters should be built in communities on all inhabited islands. Some designated shelters, like the Central Abaco Primary School, initially housed hundreds of residents before the storm but became so severely compromised that people scrambled to leave in the midst of Dorian’s passage.


Not a bad idea. For the population and size of Bahamas a "super refuge" sounds like a good idea. A properly built and well stocked building can preserve life and property. It should be built on a high place with an extremely good foundation, reinforced walls and windows and roof.

Ideally such facility should serve a purpose during the time is not used a shelter.

Also like all real security measures, the people need to be properly trained on the procedures for before, during and after the event.


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 14, 2019, 09:49:26 PM »
I check nullchool every day, several times a day. I find these nullschool posts very insightful and  often generate insightful discussion. Aleph Null's hindcast/forecast animations are specially nice for me because I often only look at nullschool's forecast. Having the hindcast in a very quick animation right on time and often generating comments is very useful to me.

And it is right on topic. Animations of models of the current status of the melting season couldn't be more on topic.

There are advantages to linking videos instead of uploading, for example, having a broader audience, but it is more work.

This off topic. Complaints have been a common recurrence on this thread this season. Perhaps we need a "Complaints" thread where forum users can voice their dislikes and find acceptable solutions without polluting this thread?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 14, 2019, 12:27:51 AM »
So Arctic Amplification can be ignored because it poses no threat of acceleration. The Arctic will keep warming but ice melt will not increase much more and freezing will stay about the same, for 50 years. The jetstreams will keep shape shifting into new an unusual forms increasing WAA, but that is no biggie. The oceans will keep warming. Albedo will keep decreasing not only over the Arctic Ocean, but over the hemisphere.

But the ice won't melt much faster, even the when the records are coming more frequently. During winter we'll get all the ice we need back even when peripheral oceans are showing memory.

Nah.

I'm convinced that there is a hiatus if we take a 2012 starting point. I'm also convinced that there is an accelerating trend if we take 2013 as a starting point.

This freezing season is terribly important. If we get a 2013 like recovery it means the arctic is warming slowly after the MYI phase change. If we get a 2017 like recovery or worse, we are done.  The arctic already spent cold reserves and we are heading towards collapse.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 13, 2019, 03:44:29 PM »
So a Gompertz fit for now, then “no melting since 2012”  or we can call it a hiatus or very slight melt for the next 50 years. Global warming can be safely ignored as it won’t affect the linear fit. We can bet the well being of the world that no non linearities will ocurr.


I don’t buy it.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 12:10:46 AM »
The obvious is nice this day and age.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:49:36 PM »
+1 Jim Hunt

Great talk. It's a shame if anyone misses the first 19 minutes.

I'm a bit confused by his comparison of Greenland temperatures to global temperatures(20:01), but that's a minor quibble relative to how informative this talk is. I learned a lot.

Virtual BOEs happened during the last ice age, even if there was ice above N84. Temperatures shut up significantly, the global climate abruptly changed.



37
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 10, 2019, 12:49:58 PM »
The "wondefully stupid question" was a tongue in cheek reference to the title of the thread. I made clear that I have the same question. If Tom is offended by it, then my apologies, no offense was meant.

On Ice free Arctic during the holocene, you need to read your own links, because they don't say the arctic was ice free, much less with the confidence you imply here, but I'll give you one more with more clear language:

Quote
Probably the most spectacular evidence of low-ice Arctic conditions in the early Holocene comes from Northeast Greenland (Fig. 8; Funder and Kjær, 2007; Funder et al., 2009). At this northernmost coast in the world, isostatically raised ‘staircases’ of well developed wave-generated beach ridges investigated along a total coastline stretch of several hundred kilometers document seasonally open water as far north as 83o N. Further north, ridges are short and sporadic, restricted to mouths of embayments and valleys, which suggests that permanent sea ice persisted throughout the Holocene at the northernmost stretch of the coast, near 83.5o
N.

https://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/jbg/Pubs/Polyak%20etal%20seaice%20QSR10%20inpress.pdf

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 10, 2019, 03:48:21 AM »

Well,Archimid, that is unfortunately not true:

Gas/coal on average produce cca. 500kg-1 ton of Co2e to generate 1 MWh

So if a 1MWh battery used 2370 t of Co2e  during manufacturing, it needs to be 100% recharged with energy 2370-4740 times before the offset you mentioned starts to work. Since these are not recharged every day, you would need at the very least 20-30 years before the offset starts to work, but in reality more like 100+ years.

See:
https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-data-for-CO2-emissions-per-MWh-for-electricity-sources-for-example-coal-vs-nat-gas


Batteries  are very dirty actually

And you didn't even add the emissions of extracting, processing, transporting and distributing fossil fuels. You only calculated the emissions while producing power.

Fossil fuels will be our end, but we can stop using them AND have a better world. There is still time.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 10, 2019, 03:21:03 AM »
Bintho, the times and warming rates you speak of require justification, but probably not in this thread. For now I'll ignore you because your argument is OT and almost takes pages out of climate change talking points. I would need two or three posts to debunk all misunderstandings of time scales and evolution that you posted. So I yield, but only out of respect for Tom's work in this forum.

I'll try to TLDR an answer with the hope that real evidence is presented to answer Tom's question: Peripheral seas were likely seasonally ice free, the high latitudes were probably ice covered. Evidence is thin, I presented two links above.

Anyone one with better sources please chime in. I would also like the answer to this stupid question.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 09, 2019, 11:32:22 AM »
Quote
A battery pack that can hold 1 MWh has emitted at least 2370 tonnes of CO2e in manufacturing. Consider how many 'powerwalls' and other battery storage is being constructed. It must amount to an enormous carbon footprint.

A battery pack that can hold 1MWH and is powered by solar panels will offset the emissions of fossil fuel power plants in a matter of months, specially when you take into account the emissions of extracting fuels.

Quote
Technofixes don't work I think, we have to change the way we live and overhaul our organisational systems.

We do have to change the way we live and overhaul all our organizations and we need to leverage technology to help us do that without starving people.

Quote
We use MUCH TOO MUCH ENERGY. Not sustainable imo.

We do use too much energy. What is worst is that we generate much more energy than we need because the system is extremely wasteful. Local renewable energy, including energy storage in any form reduces the waste of transmitting energy, and that is significant.

But even then, we must reduce our energy use in everything from indoor climate control, to government operations to the way we transport our goods and services to the way we manufacture batteries.

Quote
It this the by RCP8.5 required negative net emissions technology you are referring to?

No. Negative emissions in the sense that a mile km driven by an EV powered by a renewable source does not add to CO2 emissions but a mile driven by an ICE does add emissions. Thus an EV removes emissions by not being an ICE.

We are also going to need the to somehow suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, but that is OT here.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 09, 2019, 11:14:58 AM »
Nanning, it is not a secret that battery manufacturing emits more CO2 than manufacturing an engine. We all know this.

 But we also know that EV's are so efficient that over the life of the vehicle the manufacturing emissions are offset by the non emissions of the vehicle even in dirty grids. In green grids the offset happens very fast and every mile after offset is net emissions reduction.

And remember this is a chicken and egg problem. The more grids are powered by renewables the lower the emissions of manufacturing the batteries.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 09, 2019, 01:00:40 AM »
Quote
but the vast majority of it comes back each winter.


But what if the ice stops coming back, like the Barents, Bering and Chukchi are suggesting?

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:50:14 PM »
Quote
You keep making a major thing out of the difference in the rate at which a hypothetical BOE happens. I'd suspect that the faster it happens, the smaller it's actual effects (a bit like ripping that bandaid off!)

That is extreme nonsense. The faster it happens the worse the effect simply because all living species will have to adapt faster to the changes. The same with all climate change. The faster it happens the worst it is.


Now your links:

Quote
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004

We show that the increased insolation during EHIM has the potential to push the Arctic Ocean sea ice cover into a regime dominated by seasonal ice, i.e. ice free summers.162


Yes I know about this model. It makes sense to me and I hope is wrong. If it is right you are very Wrong about a BOE. However a model is not evidence.



Your second link seems to contradict you. At least the part in English. I can't read the other language.

Quote
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/35a3/d139599ff3e735a81df021ec0ba0af9a0a10.pdf

In the high Arctic (>85°N), IP25 was only present during the Holocene.

"PIP25 index values show a positive correlation with satellite-derived spring/summer sea-ice concentration."

If I'm not mistaken that means that above N84 there was ice, even during summer.

Quote
We therefore suggest that the occurrence of wave generated shores and abundant ice berg dropped boulders indicate that the Arctic Ocean was nearly free of sea ice in the summer at the time when they were formed. The beach ridges occur as isostatically raised "staircases", and C14-dated curves for relative sea level change show that they were formed in the Early Holocene.

I can go certainly believe "nearly ice free". However nearly ice free and ice free are two different things.  Ice free conditions means a large departure in surface temperature. Nearly ice free means the surface temperature is held to near the temp of the ice.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 08, 2019, 06:42:57 PM »
Really, is that the weight of the evidence? Show it. Be careful tho, the first links google throws at me are WUWT.


In the mean time, evidence for ice cover throughout the Holocene:

1. Like Today. N84 was ice covered all through the holocene.

https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/42998/

2.  Unlike 20 years ago and like today, the peripheral seas during Holocene Ice minimum were ice free during summer, but that happened over centuries, not decades.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316697626_Holocene_variability_in_sea_ice_cover_primary_production_and_Pacific-Water_inflow_and_climate_change_in_the_Chukchi_and_East_Siberian_Seas_Arctic_Ocean

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 08, 2019, 12:37:13 PM »
I hope this is what you want to see. CAB loses from the max to the end of August is lowest highest on record but by a very small amount.


46
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 06, 2019, 04:56:23 PM »
Crops under solar panels can be a win-win

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/09/crops-under-solar-panels-can-be-a-win-win/

Quote
As for the crops, there were some significant differences. As the chiltepin peppers are shade-adapted, they were considerably happier with some solar panels overhead. Growth was calculated in terms of CO2 uptake, and this was 33% higher in the combined plot. The water-use efficiency of the plants didn’t change, so they also used more soil moisture as they grew. The mass of peppers they produced, however, tripled under the solar panels.

47
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 03:51:13 AM »
Quote
Using recon data & satellite center fixes, here are wind duration swaths by category for #Dorian, zoomed in on Grand Bahama and Abaco Islands.

As it stalled out, portions of the islands endured:
hurricane-force winds for over 36 hours,
cat 2 for >24 hrs,
cat 3 for 6-12 hours!

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1169398977776803840


Very nice visualization.  Vox, thanks for posting the images of my prior posts, I would post the myself if I knew how. If you can do this one to it would be great. 

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:25:51 PM »
let's say extent loses cease. Yay.

Where do the extra heat goes? If the sides are not melting but the sun is still shining, where all that heat goes?

49
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:37:50 PM »
I feel sorry for the scientists that downplayed climate change. As we can start witnessing, when confronted with their crimes, climate change deniers will blame conservative scientists that predicted harm for 2100. Even if the deniers have been trying to convince us for years that things wouldn't get worse and the scientist have been warning us using disclaimers about the risks, the deniers will deny their crime, with a straight face and indignation.

The  fact that honorable scientists will admit to their error, because they are good people, will make it easier for the deniers to shift the blame.

Soon they will start claiming they were warning us all along. It is just the coward's way.

50
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 02:57:44 PM »
Quote
Grand Bahama Island:

On the left a satellite image taken on Monday at 11:44aET

On the right an image from Google Maps of the same regions of Grand Bahama Island prior to #HurricaneDorian

Hard to imagine the scale of destruction.

#Dorian #hurricane Via
@ArtemisChats
https://twitter.com/Alex_Verbeek/status/1168863576406331393/photo/1

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