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Messages - marcel_g

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:39:31 AM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

Indeed. Ice is definitely "$&!^", as someone said.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC

It's fantastic how extent and area stalled so dramatically, even while continued melting is apparent (and before refreeze has really started). PIOMAS also has known limitations for thin ice. It seems that, as the ice continues to thin Arctic-wide and the weather goes bonkers in different ways, we don't have any good way to measure actual melt. I imagine this state of affairs could make for a pretty shocking year... eventually. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that it won't be this year.  :P

PS. Re: Freegrass' animations. I think grixm was referring to storage space on the server. I don't know if this is actually a problem, as I've never seen Neven mention it (if so please do). And there are a large number of downloads of Fregrass' products, so I'd suggest he keeps it up!

Uh, wow. I don't remember seeing it all look like rubble right up to Ellesmere Island. Basically nothing bigger than 10km across. The era of Big Blocks, at 100 km across, appears to be long gone. And that was only 2015. Or 2016, I'm not sure, I'm getting old and senile probably.

The central pack might hold on for a few years as rubble like that, but it really seems like a glass of water where the ice cubes are all almost melted. The water is still 0C and the surface is still mostly ice, but the ice volume is gone, and as soon as the last ice disappears, the temperatures will shoot up dramatically and non-linearly.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 19, 2019, 06:18:23 AM »
...

Arctic waters have taken up stunning amounts of heat.

...
 There's only a very small chance that sea ice extent and area will end up lower this year than 2012, but there is little solace from that when considering long-term Arctic warming.

So what you're saying is, even if this year doesn't break records, subsequent years will show the effects of all that heat build up in the system? If it is, then I'd agree. I'm guessing it'll show up initially as delayed freezing and lower winter maximums.

I've been wondering how the ice has managed to survive given the heat build up in 2016-2018, but considering what you're saying, I'd think that in any year past this one the ice will be lucky to survive.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2019, 11:38:49 AM »
Actually,  after looking at the original more closely, that dark colour might be all melt ponds, and a low sun angle on wet snow/ice. I think only the pressure ridges are showing up white here, maybe because they stick up into the sunlight?

I've attached a crop of the original to try to show some of the detail.

Edit: in any case, there is no way a Russian research team is setting up a research station on that ice! Yikes.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2019, 08:10:23 AM »
Thanks for the images. Me thinks that ice looks very wet?

It might be, but it also might be the iPhone's automatic HDR function creating some extra contrast. It also might the low level of the sun's angle? I couldn't tell with my own eyes because I'd been sleeping and was pretty much blinded by the ice when I tried to look at it.


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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2019, 07:51:15 AM »
Here are a couple of photos I got while flying over the Arctic, from Toronto to Hong Kong on August 1st. (yes, I feel bad about flying due to emissions, but it's not a vacation, we've moved to Jakarta for my wife's work. we will also buy some offsets to try to compensate a bit.)

We were trying to sleep through the 15 hour overnight flight, but I managed to some how wake myself up at the right time to open the window blind and blind myself with the glare.

Again, taken on Aug. 1st, somewhere between Greenland and the North Pole. It seems like a lot of water visible in the leads for this area, even for this time of year. Maybe it's normal recently, but I can't imagine it would've been normal when this area used to be dominated by multiyear ice.

If you want to see the full size images, DM me and I'll email them to you.

cheers,
m

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 08:49:07 PM »
As we are getting closer to the solstice it seems, at this moment, more and more likely that the the sea ice in ESS, Chukchi, Laptev, Barents and Kara Sea will take a major damage this season. OTOH, it looks like the sea ice in Beaufort, CAA and the adjacent areas north of Greenland will be spared this season.

This idea is based upon the GFS monthly forecast that hints of a more cyclonic weather pattern over the North American side while high pressure will remain in charge over the Siberian side.

//LMV

Yes, having half the Arctic consistently sunny and warm and the other half consistently cooler and cloudy is really interesting. I don't remember anything similar since I've started reading this forum in 2015. Like LMV says, this could save half the ice. Half a bullet dodged I guess?

I wonder how much damage large cyclones later on in the season could do though? If they disperse the ice from the cloudy sector into the warmed up salty open water, it could trigger extra melt later on. That would be a second bullet to dodge.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 04, 2018, 09:24:13 PM »
...
YIKES!
...

Well, this is certainly one of those Holy Shit predictions that make this thread impossible to put down. For me anyway.


After this melt season has kind of muddled along, and I was thinking there might be a chance that it could get cloudy just in time for June and stave off the melt ponds and solar absorption.

But looking at those images, and climate reanalyzer and it seems that the only positive in the next few days is going to be that the arctic won't be completely sunny, but that is a lot of heat and moisture plowing all the way across the entire CAB.

If the sun comes out afterwards, then wow.

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