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Messages - Sebastian Jones

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1
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: March 17, 2020, 07:13:40 PM »
"Scientists conducted the study at La Selva, a biological research station on a 1,600-hectare (4,000-acre) patch of isolated forest on the Caribbean slope of Costa Rica’s Cordillera Central range, bordered by plantations responsible for global exports of banana, pineapple, and palm oil."

Gee, I winder if the constant drenching of these mono crop plantations by poisons has anything to do with the decline in caterpillars?


2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 07:08:11 PM »
731 new case so far in New York today, meaning that there will certainly be more than 1000 new cases in America today- 969 so far.
Source:https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en#

For some reason, West Virginia has thus far escaped diagnosing a single case. One wonders if any tests have been carried out...

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 07:16:26 AM »
Thank for that Sam.
I figured they were underplaying the situation.

Australia is ignoring it as well.
......
I am at the point of not bothering anymore because it seems like a lot of people are prepared to turn a blind eye to this.

It is really surprising to me how often people ignore the facts when it includes news they don't want to hear.....

Don't stop Rodius.
The people who don't want to hear won't listen, but many of those who need to listen are paying attention. Our tiny town took some big social isolation steps today, before any infections arrived. I had a municipal councillor thank me today for the Covid-19 information I was able to pass on- (and much of that knowledge comes from this forum).

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 07:26:12 PM »
Denmark closes all schools and Universities for two weeks. Despite zero deaths at present, a rapidly rising infection count has prodded the government to take pro-active action:
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/11/denmark-second-european-country-impose-lockdown-coronavirus-12384677/

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 07:51:38 AM »
Anyone who finds sticking needles their eyeballs insufficiently painful is welcome to read the word salad purported to be from the pen of President Trump which lists in detail all the exceptions to his "suspension of all travel from Europe to America":https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 11, 2020, 10:58:43 PM »
Six questions we should be asking about coronavirus
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/486558-six-questions-we-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus
Quote
Is self-quarantining good enough?
Do quarantines work well anyway?
How would a large quarantine be implemented and enforced?
How much do we have a right to know?
Should there be better, clearer protocols for infected people?
How can taxpayers be protected from a money grab?

1/Self Quarantining post exposure or post infection is essential- it is not "good enough"
2/Yes, large quarantines work better than any other response so far.
3/Good leadership and the power of the state
4/What does "right" mean? Excellent communication and information is essential
5/ That depends on where you live... generally, there is still work to be done here. Protocols are often well worked out but poorly adopted.
6/ What? Right, you are American. Universal health care will sidestep most profiteering.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 12:51:35 AM »
I called my sister in B.C. to discuss preparedness, mostly concerning our aged, vulnerable parents who live near her.
The information available in this thread both motivated me to call, and provided me with assurance that I was taking the right step and I was able to provide useful, rational advice.
I've never done anything like this before.
It was almost like being an adult.
I'm 60. ;D

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 08:14:01 PM »
Only one thing really matters during a pandemic.

If this video was re-dubbed with the Monty Python theme, it would be quite funny.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 07:01:05 PM »
Currently reading The Jakarta Pandemic on Kindle Unlimited. Brings up a good point...mail. Think of all the people handling each piece of mail with their germy hands.
Haha. Yes. We also note that some coffee chains are forbidding customers to bring their own cups, but they still accept cash....

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 06:08:40 PM »
I think the WHO will declare it a pandemic when they're certain (or it's very likely) that the whole population will get in contact with the virus.
I think they will do it July 15 when the pandemic bonds expire.

What's a Pandemic Bond?

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 03, 2020, 01:29:50 AM »
This would be funny if it wasn't so damn tragic.
<SNIP>
I blame this malaise straight on Trump's insistence that this was a hoax and just a cold.  Why go through all the rigor of full ppe for "just a cold"?

Archmid- where did you get the bottom image? I ask because the triptych is so compelling that I'd like to share it, but I'm concerned that the image may not actually be what it appears to be- a dead person being removed from a care facility in Washington.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 08:38:12 PM »
Giant cruise ship company Holland America has a corona virus protocol on its website. Highlights include Onboard Corona virus testing for any passenger displaying respiratory illness symptoms and banning all Chinese from working their ships.
The Westerdam, the ship that got bounced from port to port over half of S.E. Asia like a cross between a plague ship and the Flying Dutchman has effectively been withdrawn from service.
https://www.hollandamerica.com/en_US/news/coronavirus-travel-advisory.html

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 04:32:18 PM »
Nanning asked yesterday:

"Who will serve the rich masterrace when the poor servants are ill or death?
Who will dig up the resources for the continued production of renewables?
Who will do all the menial jobs that are the axle grease of our global capitalist system?"

A consequence of the population reduction caused by the Black Death in the 13th century was a big rise in the demand for menial labour resulting in a much better standard of living for the lowest income earners.

This could be a consequence of a modern pandemic....
Or we might see a jump in the adoption of robots.

14
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 03:41:29 AM »
It's been 7 days and people are still arguing about the fire at the coal staging yard right here.  good grief.

showing my expert analysis using NASA WorldView and a hacker image program with actual layers https://imgur.com/a/3jCmrJm


Hope they didn't lose the plant.  It is like Armageddon there right now.

First I've heard of this Sark, and Mr. Google returns nothing to the search string "Wuhan Coal yard fire".
Can you expand on this for us?

15
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 07, 2020, 02:39:55 AM »
We hear concerns that the Wuhan virus could be impacting the global economy. What with all the airline flights being cancelled, and with a reduction in industrial activity, we may be able to detect a Wuhan effect in global CO2 levels. Which would be a good thing, considering how rapidly it has been rising this year.

16
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 06, 2020, 08:03:48 PM »
Re: The reason for the decrease in size is unknown

We ate 'em ?

sidd



Certainly in all other over exploited fish stocks, a decrease in size and age is an initial symptom of collapse. There is no reason to believe this would not be the case here.

17
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 06, 2020, 07:34:23 PM »
Lets hope they are lucky. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/10000-recent-arrivals-from-china-not-in-home-isolation/articleshow/73945900.cms
If the Wuhan virus gets a foot hold in the Indian sub-continent, the situation will get really ugly.
They do not have the social structure to impose quarantines.
Wearing masks is not normal behaviour as it is with Chinese.
Health care facilities are far less adequate compared to China.

18
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 04, 2020, 07:20:20 AM »
The Guardian's breaking news page has a couple of interesting snippets- a death in Hong Kong, cases in Fiji, Hubei cases equalling those in the rest of China. Updated to 0600 Zulu...https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update

19
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:18:44 PM »
^^
Vineyards have reached the southern city limits of Hamilton within the last 10 years, and that's a ways north of Lake Erie.
I wouldn't be surprised if the newer vineyards are even further north.


The palm trees at Port Dover and Turkey Point are a nice addition to the Beach Resorts, and I saw an ornamental banana tree in Vancouver yard last time I was out west.


The crops seem to be rushing north faster than many urbanites are aware.
Terry

Crops can move as fast as people plant them. Forests will only move north if nations embark on an all out effort to move entire ecosystems north. It would be messy. Mistakes would be made but this kind of mitigation should already be occurring.


I'm not sure that it's possible here in Canada. We've lost millions of trees to pine beetles & will lose millions more. Our tree line is constrained in part by winter insolation, & it's hard to grow trees in the dark.


More southern climes may see alpine tree lines increase in elevation but increased desertification will more than undermine those gains. I think that fires, drought and flooding will have the greatest "natural" effects on forests. If we continue burning forests and bulldozing them for agriculture & industry the natural losses will never be mitigated.
Terry

According to this research, there is another constraint on tree lines moving north. They do not identify the constraint, but I rather suspect it may have something to do with mycorrhiza- or rather their absence.
https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/arctic/article/view/69593

20
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 25, 2019, 02:27:51 AM »
Quote
But from around 1500, hunting dramatically intensified when Europeans discovered the rich fishing grounds of Newfoundland. Within 350 years, the last great auks ever reliably seen were killed to be put in a museum, and the species was lost forever.

Civilisation arrived  >:(.

Even had we not hunted the Great Auk to extinction by the early 19th century, it would likely be facing the same fate now because we have so depleted the oceans of fish that most of the Great Auk's relatives are rapidly declining.

21
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:35:17 AM »
^^
Thanks Vox
Just as with Continental Drift, or the astronomic solution to the dying off of dinosaurs, we'll have to wait until most of the doubters have died off before the new Younger Dryas Asteroid theory finds acceptance. In the meantime the evidence just keeps building.


We might get our heads around the idea that Paleo Hunters killed the last Mammoth, but imagining people with spears killing the last pride of Saber Toothed Cats, or the last pack of Dire Wolves, takes a fevered imagination.


Terry - hoping I outlive the doubters. ;)

Asteroid impacts coincident with the Younger Dryas event do not have to supersede the conventional theory that a mass outflow of fresh water from the already collapsing Laurentide ice sheet drove the temperature change.They could however have exacerbated the effect. Further, it is much more likely that the end of the Clovis culture was driven by the anthropogenic extinction of ice age mega fauna than by an asteroid- unless it was awfully, awfully big. And, mega predators did not have to be hunted or killed by humans to go extinct once their prey had been killed off. In my not entirely uneducated opinion, the denialism that resists the idea that humans caused the mass extinctions at the end of the last glaciation is similar in nature to that which resists the idea that human caused carbon emissions are changing the climate today.

22
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: September 17, 2019, 04:51:07 AM »
Savoonga is a Yupik village on the north shore of St. Lawrence Island, just south of the Bering Strait. Its residents have made a living from the sea, and the ice, since the rising seas formed St. Lawrence Island at the end of the Pleistocene. Alert members of the forum will be aware that the Bering Sea has failed to freeze normally the past two winters. We also know that this  lack of sea ice has had ecological consequences- the ice hosts algae, which feed phytoplankton which feeds zooplankton and which sustains the extraordinarily rich marine life of the Bering Sea. Without the ice, the algae struggle and the consequences reverberate up the food chain until even the people of Savoonga face uncertain, even troubling times. The linked article is intended to part of a series that examines the effects of climate change in this exquisitely sensitive region.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/as-bering-sea-ice-melts-nature-is-changing-on-a-massive-scale-and-alaska-crab-pots-are-pulling-up-cod/

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 13, 2019, 08:33:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 September 2019
Addendum


To repeat, once again, it is the Beaufort, Chukchi, and ESS that refuse to let the melting season die.

SST Anomalies still + 3 or +4 celsius at the Pacific end.

Indeed. My cousin just logged 9.5C sea temperature off Icy Cape. That will take considerable cold weather to freeze.

24
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:30:09 AM »
24 hours of Dorian sitting motionless at 150-180 mph over Grand Bahama.
I can't imagine the horror.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhOE4UePx2k&feature=youtu.be

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 02, 2019, 12:27:55 AM »
An interesting article that explores the connection between those who attack Thunberg with climate deniers, misogynists and the right wing:
https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers?fbclid=IwAR0NUWJOi0Y9jXVRHFzR-Jm0X_7fBORXTPTHNCZ8BvzGrtGnAOkvLXb98U4

26
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: August 26, 2019, 05:12:44 PM »
Researchers Develop Way to Control Speed of Light, Send it Backward
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-researchers-develop-way-to-control.html
<SNIP>

Hahaha! Good one!
Clearly I need to spend more time on this thread...

27
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 20, 2019, 05:24:59 PM »
500 Million Bees Died in Brazil
https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-49406369
<SNIP>
Things aren't looking good for bees around the world.

In the United States, beekeepers lost four in 10 of their honeybee colonies in the past year, making it the worst winter on record.

In Russia 20 regions reported mass bee deaths, with officials also warning it could mean 20% less honey being produced.

At least one million bees died in South Africa in November 2018, with fipronil being blamed.

And countries such as Canada, Mexico, Argentina and Turkey have all also reported mass die-offs of bees in the last 18 months

Bees are just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. Domesticated honey bees are easy to monitor, and of course their loss has an economic  impact. The same poisons that are killing honey bees are almost definitely killing other bees and other insects and the flora and fauna that depends on them.
No wonder we cannot get a grip on GHGs if we cannot even see that literally spraying poisons into our environment is a bad idea.

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:25:11 AM »
I think I know where the designations came from:
New ice, nilas and young ice[edit]

Nilas in Baffin Bay
New ice is a general term used for recently frozen sea water that does not yet make up solid ice. It may consist of frazil ice (plates or spicules of ice suspended in water), slush (water saturated snow), or shuga (spongy white ice lumps a few centimeters across). Other terms, such as grease ice and pancake ice, are used for ice crystal accumulations under the action of wind and waves.

Nilas designates a sea ice crust up to 10 centimetres (3.9 in) in thickness. It bends without breaking around waves and swells. Nilas can be further subdivided into dark nilas – up to 5 cm (2.0 in) in thickness and very dark, and light nilas – over 5 cm (2.0 in) in thickness and lighter in color.

Young ice is a transition stage between nilas and first-year ice, and ranges in thickness from 10 cm (3.9 in) to 30 cm (12 in), Young ice can be further subdivided into grey ice – 10 cm (3.9 in) to 15 cm (5.9 in) in thickness, and grey-white ice – 15 cm (5.9 in) to 30 cm (12 in) in thickness. Young ice is not as flexible as nilas, but tends to break under wave action. In a compression regime, it will either raft (at the grey ice stage) or ridge (at the grey-white ice stage).

First-year sea ice[edit]

Distinction between 1st year sea ice (FY), 2nd year (SY), multiyear (MY) and old ice.
First-year sea ice is ice that is thicker than young ice but has no more than one year growth. In other words, it is ice that grows in the fall and winter (after it has gone through the new ice – nilas – young ice stages and grows further) but does not survive the spring and summer months (it melts away). The thickness of this ice typically ranges from 0.3 m (0.98 ft) to 2 m (6.6 ft).[5][6][7] First-year ice may be further divided into thin (30 cm (0.98 ft) to 70 cm (2.3 ft)), medium (70 cm (2.3 ft) to 120 cm (3.9 ft)) and thick (>120 cm (3.9 ft)).[6][7]

Old sea ice[edit]
Old sea ice is sea ice that has survived at least one melting season (i.e. one summer). For this reason, this ice is generally thicker than first-year sea ice. Old ice is commonly divided into two types: second-year ice, which has survived one melting season, and multiyear ice, which has survived more than one. (In some sources,[5] old ice is more than 2-years old.) Multi-year ice is much more common in the Arctic than it is in the Antarctic.[5][8] The reason for this is that sea ice in the south drifts into warmer waters where it melts. In the Arctic, much of the sea ice is land-locked.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_ice

Which makes perfect sense!

29
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:56:12 PM »
Our agri-food systems perversely discourage ecologically beneficial behaviour, but despite this, some farmers are persisting in doing the right thing.
One caveat about No-Till farming: No-Till facilitated by RoundUp ready cops is of no help.
No-Till combined with mulching during harvest is most definitely a good thing.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/08/12/news/farmers-look-capture-carbon-warnings-climate-shocks-grow-louder
Extract:
"It's not the cattle, it's our management that's the problem. To concentrate them all into a huge feedlot, that's an ecological disaster."

Hjertaas said farmers tend to be traditional and slow to change, but financial incentives could go a long way to making the switch and overcome cost and uptake challenges.

"I'm all for a carbon tax, we need to tax bad behaviour. But what's missing is we need to reward the good behaviour."

30
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:47:23 PM »
I think the beef ban is a huge mistake although I have not eaten any meat or fish in 30 years.
First, animals (cattles as well) do have an important place in regenerative agriculture and they can be bred without any adverse effects on the climate or the planet in general.
Second, it is always very harmful to ban things. Economic incentives are always better (see the historic example of taxes on alcohol vs. total abolition; or the current insane war on drugs). Create a carbon tax, or even a beef tax if you will but do not ban.
Yes, livestock can have an important place in regenerative agriculture. However, the vast majority of meat consumed in the developed world plays no role in regenerative agriculture, quite the contrary.
Yes, taxes designed to shift behaviour away from harmful practices is a preferred method over regulation, usually. However, Canada's carbon tax specifically exempts agriculture....

31
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:47:55 PM »
Bolsonaro approves 290 new pesticide products.
Also, 1,942 registered pesticides were quickly reevaluated, with the number considered extremely toxic dropped from 702 to just 43.
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/08/bolsonaro-administration-approves-290-new-pesticide-products-for-use/
I think it is important to bear in mind that ALL pesticides are toxic. The reason is because they are literally designed to be toxic, so that they can kill things.

It is difficult to imagine that the liberal spraying of poisons all around the world could happen without actually killing a whole lot of organisms, and stupid to think that only the organism that has been condemned to death will be killed and naive to think that there will not be unintended consequences from removing a species from the biosphere.

32
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:30 PM »
I read recently- somewhere, maybe even here- that because we have altered most of the very fire prone savanna around the world, that total annual area burned has declined over the past few centuries.
This surprised me- probably mostly because I live in the boreal and fire season is definitely getting longer.
So I noodled around  to look for evidence, pro or con and what I found is....it's complicated.
Yes it does appear that global fire incidence is lower now than a couple of hundred years ago, but there are strong regional variations.
Complicating my search is the fact that the denier-sphere has, naturally, latched onto this trend as evidence for whatever thing it is that they are denying.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society is pretty legit.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4874420/

Extract:
"Thus, while there are clearly some noteworthy trends in area burned for specific recent periods and regions, the general perception of increasing fire around the world is not supported by the data available to date. This does not withstand the observation of increasing fire season length in some areas [50], which is an important contributor to the increase in area burned during this century in the northwestern USA [43,46], boreal Canada and Alaska [51,52]. A future lengthening of the fire season is also anticipated for many other regions of the globe, with a potential associated increase of fire activity [19,53–56]. It is, however, important to recognize that in addition to direct climatic factors, other factors such as fuel availability and human influence will also strongly affect future fire activity [57,58].

Thus the widespread use of limited datasets or excessive extrapolation of short-term regional trends may go some way in explaining the widely held view of generally increasing fire around the world. The wider impacts of fire on society examined in §3b–d, however, may be even more relevant in driving the overall perceptions of fire trends."


33
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 10, 2019, 06:54:09 AM »
The 1.5 degrees UN IPCC report is politicized soft-denial, as have all such reports been for at least 10 years. They assume gargantuan amounts of carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere, use a ridiculously low risk tolerance (i.e. 66% and 50% confidence intervals vs. the 95% and 99% ones used in most risk management), make too-low assumptions for Earth System sensitivity to GHGs, and ignore non-linear possibilities (e.g. a Blue Ocean Event), etc.

AbruptSLRs posts are a great source of education on the overly-conservative assumptions of the UN IPCC. It does seem that for the next report (2022) even they may have to accept some of the failings in their take on climate science. I won't hold my breath though, they have been failing since 1990 while making such optimistic prognostications.

Hard Denial: Anthropocentric Climate Change Is Not Happening
Soft Denial: Anthropocentric Climate Change Is Happening BUT We Can Spin Fairy Stories About How We Can Fix It Whilst Keeping Growing the Global Economy At 3% Per Year.

I will now go back on topic to renewable energy (before the topic police notice).

AbruptSLR posts a lot about studies based on the RCP8.5 emissions scenarios.  Given that renewables are now cheaper than coal, renewables plus batteries are cheaper than peaker natural gas plants and renewable powered ICEs are projected to be cheaper than gasoline powered cars by 2024, there's no way we'll burn enough fossil fuels to generate the emissions for RCP8.5.

You can deny the IPCC reports.  Keep in mind that that makes you a climate science denier though.

Ken we all hope you are correct! However while energy use is increasing faster than renewable energy generation, I'll stick with AbruptSLR.

34
Consequences / Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« on: August 01, 2019, 07:58:00 AM »

[/quote]
And you shouldn't shower every day. A healthy skin organ is a great defence, having many beneficial microorganisms. I haven't showered in >3 months and my skin is healthy, soft and doesn't smell (clothes get smelly after a while). What kind of food you eat is also important. I had to go to hospital for a check on my ears, so for that occasion I washed my hair with soap. I tried to find a soap without any crazy additives and found "Aleppo soap".
[/quote]
You should be aware that statements like this will lead many to assume that you do not wash at all.
Under the assumption that you do cleanse yourself from time to time, I'm curious about your preferred method- I live off grid so I have to be creative about bathing, and I've gone considerably longer than 3 months without showering, while washing most every day. I also love a weekly sauna.

35
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 30, 2019, 09:54:07 PM »
Pacific salmon pushed towards the brink:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29072019/pacific-salmon-climate-change-threat-endangered-columbia-river-california-idaho-oregon-study
While this article is concerned with the American West coast, salmon in Canada and Alaska are also being affected.
Here in the far north, we did not expect salmon to be killed by water conditions similar to those in California.
But they are dying in the rivers before they get to spawn.
Salmon are vital everywhere they exist naturally, but in the nutrient poor north, salmon runs provide a critical flush of nutrients to the interior of Alaska and the Yukon.
It is not only bears, birds, and humans that depend on the salmon. Stream ecology exists on the back of spawned out salmon and the very forests themselves need to be fertilized by carcasses dragged into the woods by bears.
Without salmon we are facing an imminent ecological collapse.
I don't want to sound hyperbolic, but it is really, really bad.
And so, so sad.

36
The forum / Re: How many of you are scientists?
« on: July 23, 2019, 07:31:17 AM »
Citizen Scientist.
And I'm not being funny.
My thesis topic was on how we use citizen science.
Many citizen scientists have zero academic credentials, yet know a tremendous amount and are highly respected by lettered scientists.
So, I'm not sure how useful a question this thread poses.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 21, 2019, 06:14:12 PM »
<SNIP>

Soon enough no wildcatters will have access to capital to drill expensive wells like at the Arctic. The push comes from the desire of Alaska for income. It wont be long before the "guaranteed" income they have gets slashed...

Alaska is becoming a very interesting social experiment. It firmly hitched its wagon to fossil fuels in the 1970s and appeared to prosper for decades as the largest pool of conventional oil in the U.S. produced a steady stream of royalties. The State eliminated income and sales taxes. So much money was sloshing around that a "Permanent" fund was set up to manage the unspent surpluses. This fund is broadly designed to be a savings account for the state and a portion of the interest is disbursed to all residents of Alaska. The amount varies, recently it has been around two thousand dollars a year.
As time went by, inevitably the State became more and more dependent on the oil industry, and, just as inevitably, the main oil field at Prudhoe Bay  started to run out. It is now at the point where if its flow drop much more, there will not be enough oil to fill the trans Alaska pipeline and the tap will literally be turned off. There are several options available to Alaska at this time; it has chosen to pursue the "stealing jewels from it mother" route. It is slashing all state services,  including policing, health care, education ( notoriously the University of Alaska may shut entirely) and transport. Much of coastal Alaska is dependent on ferries- including the capital Juneau. The ferries are being taken out of service and for the first time in memory, there will be no scheduled ferry service to coastal Alaska, including its capital this winter.
Alaskans have voted for an increased permanent fund dividend and a reduced level of government. If the 1002 lands of the Arctic Refuge are developed and prove to contain abundant oil and if oil prices rise and remain high, a few more years of abundant dividends await Alaskans. Otherwise, and eventually, we are witnessing a post petroleum petroleum state.
Fascinating.

38
While methane emissions from past, present and projected future human bodies, is a minor source of GHG in the atmosphere, it is still interesting to note that it is increasing nonlinearly through at least 2100:

Daniela Polag et al. (2019), "Global methane emissions from the human body: Past, present and future", Atmospheric Environment,
Volume 214, 1, 116823, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.116823
<SNIP>
You forgot the plain language summary AbrubtSLR:

Methane from farts is increasing faster than human population rise alone would indicate. While the article does not speculate on the reasons for increased fartification, it does point to the importance of considering all factors when assessing fart rates.

39
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:09:21 PM »
bligh8:
And that is with us on the downslope of the 18.6 year tidal cycle.
This cycle, while real, is pretty insignificant, generating less than a half mm of difference in tide heights between lowest and highest parts of the cycle.
https://noc.ac.uk/news/highest-tides-186-years

40
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 13, 2019, 07:47:10 PM »
Here they age some of the permafrost at 700K- although there is some scepticism and ice could have persisted through so many interglacials, the evidence seems credible. Not that it matters much, but I've met many of these researchers and Froese is conservative, not given to hyperbole.
Extract:
The relict ice wedge overlain by the Gold Run tephra represents the oldest ice known in North America and is evidence that permafrost has been a long-term component of the North American cyrosphere. Importantly, this finding demonstrates that permafrost has survived within the discontinuous permafrost zone since at least the early-Middle Pleistocene. This age range includes several glacial-interglacial cycles, including marine isotope stages 5e and 11, both considered to be longer and warmer than the present interglaciation

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/321/5896/1648

41
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 13, 2019, 05:09:12 AM »
Made a new video. Soil layers of permafrost that scientists expected to remain frozen for at least 70 more years have already begun thawing.

<SNIPPAGE>


Excellent video Prokaryotes! I live on the boundary of continuous/discontinuous permafrost; monitoring retrogressive thaw slumps and living with warm permafrost is everyday life here. There are permafrosts dated to 400K BP here- and they are thawing.

42
The rest / Re: Cli Fi
« on: July 07, 2019, 06:01:42 PM »
Hello fellow ASIF posters,

I am looking for new reads which help me imagine the consequences of the oncoming crises. Especially fiction. I have found some books which I thought were good:

The Road - Cormac McCarthy
The Wall - John Lanchester
Water Knife - Paolo Bacigalupi

I know there's even a wiki entry for the genre, but I did not find the list of examples very interesting.

As far as non-fiction goes, I guess I have read quite a few of the most popular books. I did find 'six degrees' by Mark Lynas very helpful in imagining different futures.

Anyway, suggestions for further reading much appreciated.

Poldergeist
---
living at the bottom of a former sea


You have already listed this author, Paulo Bacigalupi, I recently read his "Windup Girl" and liked it more than I expected to. I find that as one learns more about potential climate futures, as is inevitable for regulars on this Forum, fewer and fewer CliFi writers stand up. Bacigalupi does. IMHOP.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:30:13 PM »
binntho on July 05, 2019, 03:06:44 PM

    "But I doubt very much if the ice stays in the air when the tide goes out."

I saw a documentary where the Inuit made a hole in the ice and went foraging along the shore beneath the ice whilst the tide was out. So it can.
It happened to me once: I was breaking trail up the Yukon in December and my dogs got on the trail of a wolverine. Wolverines leave a wonderful trail for a dog- a compacted trench. The trail went along the shore, where the ice was sloped, because the river level had dropped since freeze up (kinda like the tide went out). At one point, the shelf ice had cracked and fallen down The wolverine simply went on into the space beneath the ice. So too did my dogs. The trouble was that the space was only about a metre high. Plenty for a wolverine, plenty for a dog. But not even close enough for a dogsled, or its driver. So I got stuck and had the "interesting" exercise of extricating a string of nine dogs from the cave in which they were convinced they should travel. It's funny now, in retrospect....

44
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 30, 2019, 05:42:33 PM »
Thanks...both of you.
I want to take this opportunity to thank particularly the venerable ( meant respectfully) Gerontocrat and those that support his analyses- for not just keeping us informed on what is happening on Greenland almost in real time- but also for adding to our understanding of the processes involved. Thanks!

45
In a stunning display of cognitive dissonance, Canada has approved the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline expansion less than 24 hours after declaring a climate emergency.
The pipeline is intended to facilitate the growth of production from the bitumen mines (Tar sands) in Alberta. Alberta is already the source of close to half Canada's carbon emissions.
Not that Canada was on track to meet its Paris commitments of carbon reduction, but this decision slams the door firmly shut.
If the pipeline actually gets built- there is considerable opposition and this is the third time Canada has approved the pipeline. Previous attempts to get it built have been stymied by lack of social licence and the courts.
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/06/18/news/canada-approves-trans-mountain-pipeline-expansion-second-time

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 18, 2019, 05:08:38 PM »
An insight as to why the NSIDC chart is flattening out as we approach solstice?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

It is indeed a graph showing the NSIDC chart flattening out  as we approach solstice.

Unless I am looking at something very different than you, I see no insight as to why.

I think she is looking for insights, not providing them.

KK, the explanation for the flattening of the extent loss curve is attributed, in many places in the Forum, to dispersing of ice in the Beaufort and Barents seas, primarily.
The ice in these places is spreading out as a result of local weather conditions.
This makes extent appear to increase.
Note that at the same time, Area is dropping as per expectations.
Neven posts compactness graphs that illustrate this neatly.
Soon, this dispersed ice will melt out, and or the winds will shift and extent will play catch up and fall off a cliff.
It will be interesting to see how far it falls.

47
Today Canada's House of Commons passed a motion to declare a national climate emergency.
The motion was put forward by Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna, and it passed with 186 votes to 63.

It declares a national climate emergency, and supports the country’s commitment to meeting the emissions targets outlined in the Paris Agreement.

The motion described climate change as a “real and urgent crisis, driven by human activity, that impacts the environment, biodiversity, Canadians’ health, and the Canadian economy.”

The motion declares that “Canada is in a national climate emergency which requires, as a response, that Canada commit to meeting its national emission target under the Paris Agreement and to making deeper reductions in line with the agreement’s objective of holding global warming below two degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.”

All parties voted for the motion, except the two far right parties, which take their cues from America's Republicans.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5401586/canada-national-climate-emergency/

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon tax
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:17:03 PM »
Alberta to reimpose carbon tax:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mckenna-imposes-carbon-tax-alberta-1.5174482
Well, not exactly. Alberta is having a carbon tax reimposed on it by the federal government. Canada decided to institute a national minimum carbon tax, but did not impose a particular tax on the provinces, allowing them to decide precisely how to build in a price on carbon. Canada is the referee, deciding if a provinces actions are effective. Some provinces have a carbon price that satisfies Canada- such as B.C., some, in a fit of pique, removed a satisfactory carbon tax so Canada had to impose a tax on them This is what Alberta did. It removed its carbon tax, now its government can blame Canada for the carbon tax. The province has hitched its wagon firmly to some of the most carbon intensive fossil fuels on the planet (coal, fracked O&G, bitumen mining), and single handedly making it impossible for Canada to achieve its Paris commitments.

49
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 14, 2019, 05:26:23 PM »
More chemicals in our vegetables ...

Bayer to Invest $5.6 Billion in New Weed Killing Methods 
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-bayer-invest-billion-weed-methods.html

German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer says it plans to invest some 5 billion euros ($5.6 billion) over the next decade in developing "additional methods to combat weeds."

Friday's announcement came as Bayer is engaged in legal battles in the U.S. in which plaintiffs claim that subsidiary Monsanto's Roundup weed killer caused cancer. Rulings in three cases have gone against it.

Yeah, well, how is chemical company going to monetize regenerative agriculture?

50
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: June 11, 2019, 05:58:46 PM »
Talking about the Holocene Extinction, what finished off the poster child for it, Ectopistes migratorius? From the descriptions of the flocks, it couldn't have been overhunting...you would have had to give a Gatling gun to every man, woman, child, dog and cat on the continent. You would not be able to dig up a spadeful of dirt without getting a handful of bullets.
Was it habitat destruction of some small breeding area? Something else?
Extinction ecology- if there could be such a thing- is an interesting field. We commonly find it hard to accept that we can have as large an effect as seems to be required to drive major extinction events, such as the one you point to. Imagine if you will what it was like for the first people when they arrived in the Americas, a land teeming with gigantic animals. I'm quite certain that the last thing on the minds of these people was the imminent danger of their driving dozens of species and several entire genera extinct. Nonetheless, it happened. For an examination of how, and of extinction theory in general, you can do a lot worse than to read Dr. Peter Ward of the University of Washington. His theories do explain how passenger pigeons could be driven over a cliff, once certain tipping points are reached. Similar to climate effects, these tipping points are rarely visible except in retrospect. To a certain extent, many on this forum- think ASLR- are mostly concerned with seeing these tipping points before they happen.

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