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Messages - Tigertown

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 08:55:24 AM »
Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.
Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020 a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 04:27:39 PM »
I think there is a miscommunication here. The ice is/was "compacting", meaning it was generally moving towards the center of the pack, as an expected result of the high pressure and anti-cyclonic winds. I think all/most posters agree on that.
However, is the ice compact, meaning with no small holes inside the pack? I think many posters are saying no, it is not compact, since area has disappeared while the ice was moving northward, thus there is less ice covering a smaller extent.
Is the ice strong and defensible? I think many posters are saying no.
And have ice floes stacked on top of one another due to the northward movement, as happens with pressure ridges in winter? I think most/all posters now agree that no.

BTW, great animation Pagophilus.
Thanks. That was the only reason that I chimed in. I felt like one or two of the earlier posts used the term compact in a way so as to say that a goodly portion of the pack had been toughened up for surviving the season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 05:28:57 AM »
OK, this is it.  This is our compact, unrubbled extent.  Our CAB Bastion if you will.

It's due north of Ellesmere.  The lower left hand corner is grounded on an island in the CAA.

To the left, it is bounded by the Beaufort, which *is* rubble, and the upper left hand corner is where the ESS and Chukchi melt in-situ are chewing into it.

Directly above, the Laptev ice boundary is chewing northward at as much as 50km/day, and will almost certainly be passing 85N before the end of this.

To the right, you have a combination of ice being rubbled, melting in situ as it is dumped into the Fram conveyor, or shoved into the emerging killing zone along the Atlantic front to the north of Svalbard and FJL.

This image is about 1.5 million km2.  There is far too little that will survive outside of it for my comfort.
Thanks. That is why I said that I don't see any "widespread" compaction. I understand equations and reliable data, but it is good to see these images and not just blindly follow data. If you use a phone everyday to get numbers but do not look to see for yourself, data can be accurate but misleading as to the overall state of the ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 03:48:54 AM »
 We can argue about how much surface melting has occurred this year vs. 2012 because of the compaction.......  <snip>

What compaction? I don't see any compaction to be worth mentioning. I am using a large screen high def laptop. I don't see it. Can those that keep bringing up compaction show some images or other proof? Please.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 07:49:11 AM »
As far as the ongoing discussion over the last few days, I do not see any evidence of widespread compaction or ice stacking. There is obviously widespread melting going on. I think there is more melting than we can observe right now, not less.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:48:42 PM »
Starting to see some real unclogging of the channels in the CAA now.
Click It!!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 25, 2020, 07:35:02 PM »
"Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? "
It won't have to melt out. If it melts just enough and turns to slush, the CAA can bleed out like a stuck pig.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 02, 2020, 12:01:32 AM »
So what is that, really?
I think the ice got "stretched out" there last week. That created a lot of open water between the flows.
The ice definetly got stretched out and not only allowed for open water but probably with this same movement caused upwelling. Anyone know the temperature in this area? Not the surface but just below it.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 31, 2020, 04:55:46 PM »
Your own immune system will kill the virus. The problem is to get past the lipid coating. One simple trick is to get something in your body to compromise the viral lipid coating. I have been reading for years about MCT's and one substance found in coconut oil as well as milk. It is monolaurin, which the coating readily absorbs, trying to increase its protection, but resulting in the coating's destruction. Your immune system then attacks the actual virus. I have gotten this to work against the basic flu, but obviously have not had the new virus.

In the words of someone smarter than me,
 "While Monolaurin is most widely used as an anti-viral agent, it
also has beneficial effects against pathogenic bacteria, yeasts
and fungi; other fatty acids such as caprylic and sorbic acids are
more effective against yeasts, but ineffective against viruses.
In a study performed at the CDC, which focused on Monolaurin tested
strains of viruses, Monolaurin was able to solubulize the
enveloped membrane of 14 human RNA and DNA viruses (3).
These include influenza, RSV, Rubeola, Newcastle’s, Coronavirus,
Herpes Simplex types 1 & 2, Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV)
and cytomegalovirus. (Monolaurin has no effect on
naked viruses, such as polio, encephalitis virus, coxsachie, or pox
viruses.) Monolaurin works by disintegrating the lipid
envelope coat of viruses. Data from these studies suggest that the
loss of virus infectivity is associated with the solubilization
of Monolaurin into the envelope. The virus absorbs the fatty acid
for its own replication, but winds up destroying its own protective
coat.  "

The big problem with monolaurin is that it is available at a very low price and big pharmacy has no motive to promote it, though many agencies and clinics such as the Mayo clinic are aware of it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 05:46:14 AM »
We are way off topic.
Off topic; And yet, this year, not so much.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 11:47:37 PM »
Considering momentum, heat in the water and everything else, the slowdown over the last week is nothing short of astonishing to me.

I really didn't expect to be wrong concluding extent this year would drop under 4 million KM2, but am happy that it appears it won't.

As I said elsewhere, seems there's a factor we are missing somehow.

I've been speculating for a while about that. Maybe, the ice is in such a bad condition that mostly volume is being lost at this point and the remaining ice continues to disperse, keeping up with the two-dimensional losses.  Of course, the only way we will know is to wait a couple weeks on  the PIOMAS numbers.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 25, 2019, 08:04:10 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

If I had a nickel for every time I read about "cataclysmic" melt season, every melt season in the past 6...well, I'd have a very large stack of nickels.
The disaster has already began to unfold before our eyes, as we watched the thickest and oldest MYI disappear. Like a slow killing gut wound, the immediate consequences are yet to be apparent. The buffer effect this ice gave against such melt seasons as the current one is now gone. It is pointless to compare the outcome of similar seasons before this loss.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 07, 2019, 05:34:32 PM »
An ol' drunk stumbling off into the night; oh wait, that's the global SIE!

Arctic sea ice / Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 13, 2017, 10:38:34 PM »
I think this to be important overall, but especially interesting to watch over the next few months. As the extent around Antarctica sputters trying to making nominal gains, the Arctic chugs away at making losses. By the time the Arctic starts freezing, Antarctica's sea ice will start to drop in extent. If the Arctic freezing season is very slow at all about taking off, Wipneus' global extent chart could see larger gaps developed than ever imagined. I expect it(+related charts) to be a main feature in this thread, though if some one wants to do a JAXA chart, that would be great also.

Here we can see how the global extent starts to tail off over the last couple of years or so. I can't help but wonder what far reaching effects this may have on weather.

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