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Messages - VeliAlbertKallio

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 04:53:36 AM »
2020-2021 freezing season is important to observe because of high peripheral seas sunlight intake. What happens now will be in more extreme form next year if similar melt year is being repeated with ice recovery lacklustre and delayed. 2021-2022 melt season has already been predicted as potential repeat with jet streams locked by the end of 2021 to the latitude of the Gibraltar Strait. Expect delayed freezing much stronger with strong storms in Arctic with vast bigger lake-snow effect. Beasts of east to wipe across Northern and Central Europe, with unusual monsoon and wind patterns to be seen in Asia further south. Particularly interesting feature being the heavy rains to Morocco, Algeria, Spain, Portugal, south France. The Central Arctic Basin may make first moves towards central (polar) hole with re-freezing inversion from the periphery towards the centre of the Arctic Ocean (depending how much ice left on the pole).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 08:32:50 AM »
If the snow cover were as good negative feedback, then Ewing-Donne lake snow would rule also on land: the climate would progressively cool and end up in the ice ages. That didn't happen, snow is not driver for cooling but a respondent (although on land decomposition of biomaterials is a fundamental difference). Sea ice without snow leaks heat out best and thickens for the following summer as a result. Any cooling effect is volatile and biased towards onset of the spring rather than end of season.

Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation for the last 72 hours and the next five days.

All that snow is gonna insulate the ice from freezing, isn't it? Will this become another positive feedback loop? More open water means more snow, means more open water and even more snow next year?
Not necessarily. Overabundance of snow accumulation until sprint (50 cm or more) is also a melting season quencher and a wonderful negative feedback (‘13 ‘14 post 2012 and ‘17 post 2016, iirc).
The snow insulation effect works both ways, and snow is a wonderful reflector persisting perhaps until July.

So this winter let it snow, let it snow, let it snow, and we won’t need to worry for 2021.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:01:56 PM »
NSIDC 14-day sea ice extent reduction (due to melting and sea ice floe pulverisation) has been -64,000km2 per day if 85,000 km2 solitary 28.8. spreading event is eliminated from the series. Lesser scattering events may occur but these then will lead to further fragmenting below the 15% threshold.

There is heat in the ocean to melt the ice, but the buoy temperatures steadily fall. Barring major storm events it is near flat bottom of the melting curve for 2020. More questionable is Russian coasts where is more heat to dissipate to delay the refreeze. On the Atlantic Side, melting advances for weeks incrementally but is fully compensated in cooling air over the Central Arctic and North Pole forming ice.

I expect, nevertheless, rapid sea ice re-growth to occur facilitated by the widespread ice floes in Arctic.

More worrying is near Blue Ocean event next year and its forecast effect on the jet stream-driven rain belts moving in GCMs from a line north of the British Isles to the median around the Strait of Gibraltar, with the winter rain belts shifted to Morocco, Spain, Portugal, and Southern France, with the Beasts of the East, easterlies originating from Siberia brining very crispy air over Northern and Central Europe. The median occurrence in the models point to post-2021-melt circulatory change peaking by year end.

For general public 1,000,000 km2 BOE will appear cheating by experts and I would not market the event as such until the ocean is genuinely ice free (which I think is also just behind the corner as the last remaining ice bits to vanish take increasingly less energy due to diminished volume).

We need to readily assault against false climate change denialists' claims as surely they will come to haunt us 2021 if we claim blue ocean when there is million square kilometres of ice still left behind.

The surest sign of the final arrival of the Blue Ocean is when the Russian and American submariners are hugging in each other's arm pits under the very last ice floe - somewhere north of Canada.  :P

4
This would suggest me the west Greenland losing from additional climatic warming to the gain of east Greenland. Western winds carrying less humidity as they arrive from the continent, while the warmer Atlantic water body having more moisture, increasing precipitation. But once ice-free ocean in the north materialises early in insolation, we will see this set up crumbling and more melting everywhere.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 14, 2020, 04:46:21 AM »
Absolute tragedy. Konrad Steffen - a great soul. https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/13/konrad-steffen-death-climate-change-scientist-dies-greenland/3362486001/  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :-\ :-\ :-\ :-\ :-[ :-[ :-[ :-[

Ground caved in while installing meteorological weather station due to subsurface melt cavity in Greenland. Working on melting Greenland ice sheet is becoming increasingly dangerous and unpredictable. The whole Greenland ice sheet is becoming Swiss cheese with water pockets hidden under its treacherous unstable surface. (Wait and you will start seeing it collapse major ways as each year more of these pockets form as it turns increasingly slushy ice.) Crevasse water heat will not escape even in winter but builds up temperature in deep ice accumulating each year more water in Greenland's ice - making it ever more fragile labyrinth of ice caves filled with summertime melt water.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 01:46:34 AM »
The nuclear submariners have continued to search for strong ice to seek hides underneath sea ice. This task is becoming increasingly difficult if not impossible as the sea ice area has dangerously thinned. The wake of forward propulsion of large nuclear submarines can be detected even in thin and broken sea ice. The hide and seek game is ending, if it did not do so already. The small residual ice cap is also posing unacceptable dangers and both Russian and US submariners are forced to remain and move within same constricted area increasing the risk of collisions, especially detection as nuclear submarines communicate their position fairly accurately to another submarines due to noise their engines are making, while the signs of wake (also the rearrangement of ice floes in the wake) now reveals the generals' toys locations from above. (sarcastic about that  :D :D :D)

We might already this year have a foretaste of what post-sea ice weather brings: outwards thrown jet-stream boundary with mean value near the Strait of Gibraltar (shifting from nr. Norway north of UK initially predicted December 2021 after repeat serious melt, but now forwarded). For the UK and Central Europe this means increased risk of so-called "Beast-of-the-East": severe cold easterlies pulling freezing air across continent from Russia while the Arctic Ocean is cooling, while Portugal, Spain, Morocco, and Algeria goes growing rice. In my mind, questions remain over covid-19 whether that does anything contrary to earlier forecast like warming on winter, or its effect on daily weather might be negligible, also, I worry about changes in monsoon(??) routes and strength. Its time for both parties to scrap their toys for good (my opinion) and put the money to windmills...

If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:48:56 AM »
Yakutia Superfires 2nd July 2020 at 500km and 50km resolutions beat even the Amazon fires.  :-[

8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:33:22 AM »
Melville Bay's Coastal Depression section showing ice discharges and drained melt water lakes 27.07.2020. The region has very active Greenland Ice sheet edge because the width of Greenland's perimeter shield fades away and descends below sea level - part of GIS edge more akin to ice shelf.

This area interests SRS due to its broken geology that is also subsiding contrary to the rest of Greenland. Besides Petermann's fjord this is potentially one of the most dangerous parts due to its huge erratic boulders and unstable sea bed, east-west tilting, and north-south bending point stressing its rocks, and turbidic rock falls on its broken seabed. Its edges are often licked also by warm sea water.

Sea Research Society's evidence-giving in Parliament pointed out risks from this region after the Arctic Ocean becomes regularly ice-free in summer time. After exhaustive surface melt in north Greenland, post summer sea ice, this region will accumulate even more wet and slushy ice against its perimeter barrier obstacles. This risk is growing and these land subsidences will become major hazard one day: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons
 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:29:29 AM »
NASA Worldview also clearly shows the structural weakness of this ice by this ice blowout near FJL. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=606537.3106086026,102440.43155999202,975177.3106086026,316712.431559992&p=arctic&t=2020-07-23-T03%3A14%3A46Z We definitely are approaching the unimaginable, yet the long predicted Laxton Sea, I suppose Seymour Laxton must be turning restlessly in his coffin as his prediction nears the blue ocean state. We cannot appreciate enough him telling this (which danger few still even know). By June 2020 upward sonar soundings indicated this years melt will fuse into next years spring leading to even more complete job by the end of 2021 melt with autumn-winter storm tracks moving from North of UK all the way to south France, Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Algeria last seen in Pleistocene.

There ain't no stoppin' it now .. https://go.nasa.gov/39oSyYL
  for the 1'st time in 10 days we get to see the unfolding horror of the Atlantic side . Pagophilus showed the damage north of FJL . I see it extends as far as can be seen .. 86.5'N . The state of the ice here is as bad or worse than the ice between Laptev and pole . Coupled with the video of Polarstern and the ice flow , I see no reason for any of the ice on the Eurasian side of the meridian 0/180' to survive. <snip> 
     https://go.nasa.gov/39pnnwi
  of course , weather and seasons changing may delay the inevitable for another year.
.
This is exactly what I mean it's only freaking July 23rd. 2020 is going to finish lowest in area, extent, and volume
<snip>
<snip>
Expect UNPRECEDENTED melt.  Expect huge areas of open water is going to develop over the next 1-2 weeks. Going to be never before seen melt IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY. BY MID AUGUST AREA WILL DROP AT RECORD PACE. Concentration keeps dropping. Imagine If the entire central arctic basin was clear. Concentration would be way lower.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 09:46:56 PM »
BBC and Nature Climate Change today: "Ignorantia stupor hoc est ianua"

One of the most misleading articles has appeared in BBC minimising the risks of the Arctic sea ice loss. Far too many people fail to understand that the short, extreme periods of weather and sea ice melting are dangerous to biological life. On the other hand, glaciers suffer from tiny rises in temperature averages over long time. Only one or two days of extreme heat shock can kill plants and animals extinct whether it is frost or heat shock if they are not adapted to such temperatures. I bet that just one or two summer seasons without Arctic sea ice will kill all polar bears by starvation: therefore citing averages "becoming critical for polar bear survival" around year 2100 is seriously faulty argument. Some GCMs already modelled that this summer leads to 'sticky 2020/2021 winter' followed by 2021 another melt that causes so much delay in the onset of 2021/2022 winter that the jet streams may push depression systems tracks to far south Portugal - Morocco line (whereas these used to be north of Britain). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53474445  :'(

(I've received support from Professor Sir Ghillean Prance, FRS and others that the argument is faulty, circumstantial evidence is high: adverse conditions to starve bears are likely to occur before 2100.)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 05:09:36 AM »
If my eyes are right, the old leads in sea ice have today melted through and open water. This makes dispersion easier and increases sunlight retention along the long black lines. https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1243287.3783722145,401062.8107039131,-874647.3783722145,615334.8107039131&p=arctic&t=2020-07-15-T02%3A01%3A52Z

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:42:38 AM »
Additional possibility to high insolation and thinness of sea ice cover feeding to microbial growth within and beneath sea ice may be destabilised methane hydrates releasing up methane, carbon dioxide, and nutrients in bursts to sea water in East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea. The area of grey and brown is deepening in colour tone and widening on area extent, yet it is within unbroken sea ice area in shallow Russian continental shelf. Vortices of nutrient rich riparian discharges might also be a contributor to it:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-738231.7242011561,798688.0907794486,-369591.72420115606,1012960.0907794486&p=arctic&z=2  8)

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:22:31 AM »
It seems me clear that the usual footing on Russian side having been lost record early and lot, has had an impact for the sea ice footing of the American side. Back in 2006 I predicted (and repeated at my RSE VII presentation at "Arctic - Mirror of Life Symposium" 2007) that lop-sided Polar Sea Ice cap would emerge once sea ice's spatial extent diminishes. The smaller radius the central pack has, the more spatial dislodgement will emerge. Ultimately, the limit is how far winds and currents can push ice to one direction. This seems to be the case now, with also QE islands void filled by lose ice debris.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-1428665.4368975572,-698424.6018564447,-691385.4368975572,-269880.60185644473&p=arctic

I do not know yet if my other RSE VII prediction that compacted ice packs would survive far more pounding than dispersed ones, has reality to it. If so, then we may end with large sea ice area of rotten ice. This kind of soft, honeycombed ice obviously is extremely sensitive to wind damage like GAC 2012. But in the absence of winds, and setting sun, we might end with extraordinary amount of poor quality ice by the autumn. Would the present setting enhance such long lasting stills until the fall and darkness?

But wait, there's more. Now that the rest of the imagery was cached from Worldview you can see the extent to which the entire pack is both mobile and fractured

Interesting new feature with Pikachu - looks rather large.

The surprised Pikachu face is how I felt when I made that. At a loss for words and just like: is this reality right now??

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:25:47 AM »
It may be the ghost of the Laxton Sea for 2020 is arising like Phoenix from the ashes of many alarmist earlier predictions like myself. I always appreciated late Seymour Laxton of the University Collge London as one of the great early birds warning of the early demise of the Arctic Sea Ice. Catherine Gilles was another great of theirs. Sadly we miss both of them to see their predictions if not realised, at least close. In future our worries will comprise of collapsing methane hydrates and exhaustively melting North Greenland Ice Sheet turning into honeycombed water clogged unstable porridge. :'(

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 05:09:03 AM »
Earlier in the thread someone notified brownish tints becoming common in sea ice this year suggesting strong algae growth. The large amount of sunlight available in 2020 to algae to photosynthesise might change properties of water beneath sea ice by turning it murkier and opaque. This would then trap more sunlight and heat right beneath sea ice and thus accelerate its melting (even though not always visible from the surface covered by sea ice). As sea ice gets thinner (sic.) the light contribution is for increased algae photosynthesis and its contribution as a positive feedback in ice melting is likely to grow. One area for someone to pick up for a good PhD thesis that would contribute much to modelling, also a rare piece that could be studied in a laboratory setting at first to test the concept of alga-driven melt feedback.  8)

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 08:11:59 AM »
Not only melting (aqua blue) on sea ice, but signs of its softening are clear on 8th July 2020. It tells me that some ice has started to honeycomb to become "rotten ice" and opens leads easily:
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-931807.9036340355,300518.162858593,-563167.9036340355,514790.162858593&p=arctic

17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:14:19 AM »
Colourful speck appeared 7.7. on Greenland Ice Sheet, does anyone has larger image of the area? Fournier triangulation has contorted its colours. (I hope this is not volcanic eruption in the making, shouldn't be as Greenland is supposedly volcanically extinct, if it were would be bad omen for its ice).
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=71669.71520490224,-2646993.662074549,250535.7290737917,-2543027.7915132567&p=arctic&t=2020-07-07-T04%3A37%3A12Z&e=true

18
Permafrost / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 02:19:19 AM »
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2564096,772096,3334144,4200448&p=arctic&z=1
Sea Ice is now smothered with lots of aerosol and black soot. How this does affect melting, one in the air cools, one falling on ice speeds melting. The ice loss is met with equally horrendous forest fires. There is lot of aerosols in air from forest fires (not from planes) lot of stuff ending over the Arctic Ocean.

.. The ice edge is retreating.... extremely quickly. Collapsing may be a better term. The ATL front is collapsing, but the more significant extent and area hammer may soon be all the FYI in the Beaufort and Chukchi which also looks like it is about to give out (or in 30-45 days rather). On satellite this huge area of FYI has now gone very grey and HYCOM indicates it is pretty thin, like a bit over a meter in general.

It must be noted that both Laptev and Kara have almost fully melted as of 7/1. An unprecedented situation. The moat has been crossed, the wall has been breached, the CAB is open for assault from two new directions at peak insolation under most GHG forcing in the modern era combined with a lack of airplane and aerosol-driven clouds relative to normal years.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 04:43:01 AM »
I personally feel that if there is a total or near complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, this might introduce extreme temperature gradients to the region. On the onset of winter darkness, these may generate hurricane force winds that pile up extreme pack ice against the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Nunavut. This then would be combined with open Central Arctic causing huge lake-snow effect dumping that could re-generate new ice shelves as snowfall fuses into such pack ice formations.

This could re-instate - volatile and temporary - new "ice shelves" of quite considerable thickness. For shipping these conditions would be deadly even though the Central Arctic might remain open water deep into mid winter. Fortunately, for this season I cannot see ocean warming sufficient even if all ice were lost, the high temperature gradients and adequate moisture conditions are prerequisite for these ice shelves to form from extreme pack ice development combined to equally massive lake-snow falls.

Maurice Ewing and William Donn of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) in Palisades, New York were the last researchers advocating Lake-Snow Effect from insolation as a trigger of the Ice Ages ice sheets (since taken over by Milutin Milanković theory of the slow orbital forcings). The problem with Lake-snow from Arctic warming is that even though the effect is seen intensifying, also the land where snow falls also warms (just like Oren said aptly, that in the end it all melts in the Hudson Bay): the net result being higher spring floods in Siberia, not any ice sheet.

Post-Rio-1992 UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the First Nations of Americas Ethnoclimatology Motion to be tabled on the floor of UN General Assembly on the Native American history on Foxe-Laurentide Ice Dome on which issue the UNFCCC update is here (some Asian nations lend support to this case history and WMO gave minor conference funding) which I am quite familiar: https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue There is no way for new ice sheet. In above, cause is geothermal lake-snow effect and the project goal is to attain funds to GRIP style ice core to retrieve subglacial carbon for AMS test.

Severe problems will only emerge once Arctic begin to be ice free mid-summer, then above effect may be at the tipping point for subsequent winter darkness - extremely unstable - ice shelving north of Canada. The present season (2020) is luckily one light year away from this awkward tipping point.

@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, your response should have come in a post apart..
The Hudson Bay thing is part of bbr's hypothesis on a new ice sheet forming in Northern Canada. It also bursts forth on the Northern hemisphere Snowfall thread from time to time. It is true to say that Hudson Bay has successfully mostly ignored AGW over the years. It is also true to say that it melts out completely without fail.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 06:09:07 AM »
Years ago when Cryosat team were presenting at the Paris Air show they talked some rubbish. I recall that on that occasion their system interpreted rugged, compacted sea ice as multiyear ice, whereas the thick flat multiyear ice that appeared in satellite photos was interpreted as first year ice. I wonder if something of the like still lingers on it, but would doubt as I and Peter Wadhams made a bit melee of it. Eventually Peter told me to quieten the dispute down and not to steam them anymore to get calm. On that occasion the compacted ice on the Atlantic front was interpreted as multi-year ice, while ice north east and north of the Taimyr Peninsula on the Central Arctic Basin was presented as single year ice. I suppose, the issue was better radar reflection from tilted ice floes acting as better mirrors of radar rays.

Interesting question Friv has raised, perhaps I shouldn't raise old skeletons from cup board. Hopefully, nobody offended on above. I have not recently been following photos closely enough to judge matter. Meeting later today the deputy of UN Secretary-General António Guterres as the monsoon in Asia has stalled with Australian-forest-burning-like major event now occurring on the north side of the Hadley Cells and starting to raise international tensions over Co2 concentrations' effect on the main rice growing belt of Asia. I am tentatively suggesting the warming Arctic may also be contributing to monsoon change. More action on fossils needed
I wanted to post this as soon as I came across it. PIOMAS actually published the cryosat ice thickness and then they posted a graph of piomas versus cryosat.
...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 23, 2020, 11:47:36 AM »
Copernicus offers extremely strong suggestion for the high prevalent Siberian temperatures being exacerbated which will have overspill effect for the melting of the Arctic sea ice for the rest of this season: https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/cams/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2020062100,36,2020062212&projection=classical_arctic&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2020, 05:46:14 AM »
The stable rate (1997-2007), has remained variable since 2007 unprecedented event (2007-2020). Likewise, the higher variability in sea ice extent also preceded that period (1979-1997). For the future prediction the reasons for these changing variabilities in Arctic sea ice compactness need better understood. I could conceive that thinner sea ice and open waters help now variability, but what then caused the higher sea ice variability (1979-1997)? Was it the weakening of the peripheral seas ice that is then followed by the weakening of the Central Arctic? These questions must be urgently answered if we want to understand when the ocean becomes ice free, and whether it is then regular or irregular.

Ref: see the attached graph on previous post below.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 11:19:16 AM »
My apologies of banding things together. I should have been more pointed just to state that I have noticed a lack of graphs on ASIF that show evolution of sea ice area and extent variability rising/lowering/staying same over moving 5 and 10 year periods whichever shows better where we are going. If that got lost, then I perhaps shoot my own foot. (I wish I'd be able to create such graphs.)

VAK, parts of your post are very off-topic here. Some belong in "When will the Arctic go ice-free", "Geoengineering", "Archaeology/Paleontology news". As this is a rare occurrence I will let it stand, but more such posts will have to be moved/edited/deleted,

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 22, 2020, 08:56:24 AM »
The solar altitude idea is quite interesting as well as the projection of ice remaining 80-90 degrees to the north until perhaps 2040 as a consequence of low solar angle in the high latitude. I have been looking at this issue from perspective of sea ice stability and sea ice variabilities. I suspect as the mobility is increasing, sea ice is pushed increasingly to open areas as sea ice scattering increases.

To resolve half way the above problem, we at Sea Research Society, would be grateful if someone with skills on spreadsheets and data could put out a graph which shows the minimum-maximum sea ice area on each day. The simplest this type graph would be to show each date's highest-ever and lowest-ever value and the relation of current year's reading (its place) against these two boundaries. This is a very primitive and not too helpful -- except for public purposes to show current years position in media. For the general public having a set of multiple curves is confusing and newspaper space limits the size of graph in print. If a graph of highest-lowest ever is made you can fit it in 1-2 inch graph in magazine, for newspaper there are a bit more options but generally I believe most people find extra curves confusing. They don't have scientific value, just informative one as printing space is limited.

A more useful graph for ASIF community would be one that shows 5 / 10-year moving average of sea ice area variability. This could give us projections how broad range of outcomes of sea ice scattering and melt would be in future. Walt Meier just wrote a paper on sea ice movement increasing 10% per decade. Suggested chart, I suggest, could provide indication how sea ice area variability has evolved in time: this changing variability unfolds future in case the moving averages reveal a widening outcome spectrum. I suspect huge fanning ahead in possible sea ice extents.

Unfortunately we at SRS are not able to do it as our strength areas are in marine archeology and anthropology where we are world leaders in a deep diving. Our teaching programme for deep divers for oil rigs is just 5th accepted centre of learning in whole USA (including US Navy). Thus we have had archaeological excavations conducted under 180 metres below sea surface from sea bed pressurised cabin. This makes us the only archaeological organisation to excavate former Palaeolithic sites at Last Glacial Maximum at 120-130 metres below sea level. But we are hampered with funding to our work.

Palaeolithic archaeological work is important for understanding how fast sea level rose in the past:

There is a worrying amount of sites where pots and pans are left behind that suggests huge displacement events by collapsing ice sheets that are not at all in current geophysical model. This imply that they simply must be wrong. Valuable items are never left behind if people can collect them! I have been warning at UK Houses of Parliament of various failings and overconfidence of geophysicists. This must remain SRS' focus to warn about problem geophysical models do not capture.

The other similar problem is the pulverising effect which is lacking in Pleistocene sites when it shouldn't. If sea level changes slowly, the waves excavate soils and pulverise even strong buildings. This has not happened in the ice Ages, and many buildings over large areas remain immersed intact in water (unless a by-passing trawler net has caught and damaged them). From geophysical point of view I've captured and offered explanation to above in my Parliament evidence giving most recently: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

I have not been contributing graphs here in ASIF last four years. The last one of mine being corrections to US Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite when its Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) data began providing erratic passive microwave brightness temperatures (and its derived Arctic and Antarctic sea ice products). President Trump then stupidly if not disgustingly trashed US$ 400 million US Navy replacement satellite on ground with his typical arrogant style thus wasting taxpayers money (much like ensuring coronaviruses to populate the US and reduce human emissions).

To resolve issues discussed here, we need a new type of graph that shows the changing variability of spectrum of sea ice area and extent outcomes. I expect this rainbow be widening and I don't believe sea ice remaining safe until 2040. I understand that the idea of ice remaining was flouted as theoretical idea rather than expected outcome knowing the decreasing barriers as ocean opens and ice has more space to move around, ultimately the islands left as the last constraint.

On geoengineering I've lobbied bridge suspension cabling with lower able pontoons with compressed air to be installed Ellesmere Island - Hans Island - Greenland to reduce ice flow on the Nares Strait and also between the Queen Elizabeth islands to hold sea ice back for shipping lane. So far, I have not gathered great interest on neither idea but they could be used to control southward ice loss.

Based on our experience, we expect Arctic Ocean sea ice loss be catastrophic for North Greenland's ice sheet. Initially the lake-snow effect of the Arctic Ocean (studied by Maurice Ewing and William Donn in 1950's as a potential cause for the ice ages), could lift enough snow from the Arctic Ocean to reverse for a brief moment the sea level rise, then followed by castastrophic collapses due to meltwater build up under and within the ice sheet - suddenly then pushing ocean water table up, with people running from their homes and thus leaving household valuables behind. We can still find these artefacts in original contexts indicating that at least in the Indian Ocean people had no time but just run away.

We do not hear from these just because few people dig Palaeolithic as there is 'no gold and silver' and the work in ocean depths is costly + dangerous with each additional metre of water. In Indian Ocean sites strong currents and no visibility deters divers exploring sites, plus the high cost of this type of deep diving work. The fact we don't hear about it, doesn't mean that the problem does not exist.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Sea Research Society, Vice President
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 29, 2020, 01:25:12 AM »
Light Pillars with ice crystals reflecting light back.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 26, 2020, 02:22:02 AM »
Coronavirus has certainly helped to brighten skies also on Subarctic and Arctic regions. Normally it is difficult to see 80km across the Baltic Sea from Finland to Estonia.  The reduction of nitrous oxides makes it possible now to see much more easily across the Gulf of Finland from Helsinki to Tallinn. Normally such viewings are possible for electric lighting or during sunset or sunrise when contrast is high, but currently it is possible to see continually and even through midday's bright circumstances.  8)

https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000006486374.html

Finland is quite high latitude, almost sliced to two halves by the Arctic Circle, or ~1/3 to ~2/3 ratio. If light can travel much further horizontally unhindered by aerosols, it certainly is transparent vertically. Let's see if this removal of global dimming effect lives up to its name or if the scare was exaggerated. Central England Temperature (CET) was since beginning of this year to this week +2.26C above 1960-2000 average.  :-[

...
Do you have any stats to back up  this  ? Re cyclones.
I don't, but i did not look for, either. Was just general consideration, which i think is quite obvious: when it's some 10%...15% of sunlight normally much absorved by aerosols, "normally" means with recent-years-typical amount of fuel burning by mankind, - we'll have that much more heat mostly added to troposphere, and cyclones are driven by athmospheric heat. Substract from it, and less "of" cyclones will be around: less number as well as less intensity.

Important also: "less" means "less than would otherwise happen", and with ever-growing GHGs, the general trend is to _more_ of cyclones as years go by. So less aerosols will make it "less than would happen with both normal aerosol content and with normal GHG growth", which does not nesessarily mean "less than in recent years", since GHG growth is ongoing process.

It would surely be very interesting to see how many and how strong cyclones in the Arctic would end up happening, but obviously we're not yet at the point in time when this could be measured / quantified. This is a talk for the end of this melting season - about estimating cyclones' number, strength and effects on sea ice.

The above point about less aerosols present in the air remains game-changing despite the uncertainty about "absolute" number and strength of cyclones / cloudy days during this season, however, because higher actual insolation at the surface - i.e. few percent more sunlight reaching the ice directly, - will still produce greater melt "per sunny day" than in recent years. Especially with less jet contrails directly over the Arctic as per less jet liners crossing the Arctic back and forth, as was usual in exactly recent years. The effect is relatively small "directly", but multiplicated with further albedo feedback, of course - few percent faster melt produces few percent darker surfaces on average, which then add ever growing further extra melt into the picture.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 21, 2020, 12:27:39 AM »
I have more satellite data that I have been hoping to present this season but due to my system breakdown and cost of repairs US$1,500, I have not been able to access the images I would have wished to put out this season on some debates. (Difficulty is that the firmware reader of data is incompatible with all PC and MacIntosh so finding people and spares is very hard for me to fix it.)
I can on this debate offer you a few images that I have put on my Curriculum Vitae that can be downloaded from Academia.edu. They are not of best resolutions, nor all of the images available that are highlighting this matter, but every bit will, nevertheless, help.

It is costly to produce images which provide optic side scans and repeat scans (multiplexing) of sea ice as this involves flying satellite constellations repeatedly in different angles and one after another. It is getting ever easier and one day all this is probably routine. Also a Fournier triangulation is avoided to spot visually a target such as a moving warship and to identify which ship or submarine has surfaced from the Arctic sea ice. It is tedious exercise to keep tabs (particularly on nuclear submarines as they are small and can disappear quickly back into ice).

For our discussion here we are interested about the formation of the leads, why and where they form:

Multiplex imaging with satellite cluster produces images of entire Arctic Ocean cloud-free during sunlight season, including the infrared and UV-scanners that identify sources or ships' heat or electric lights, whatever. On CV page 10 you can see how the continuous breakwater pulse propagates within the Arctic Ocean and weakens the sea ice from the estuary onwards. (The large image on the top.) Typically ultimate "C", penultimate "B", and antepenultimate "A" ice floes form from the Russian coast running their weakened seams perpendicularly to Canada where the ultimate "C" typically hits at the Western Last Sea Ice Area (Western - LIA) where the turning process causes opposite stress point, thus segregating the ultimate "C" and penultimate "B". There are two of these, but only one C/B is shown on my CV, both of them would be interest to this discussion.

There are couple other processes on the Arctic Ocean:

Page 8 The antepenultimate "A" facing the Atlantic runs on its own with the alternating zebra patterns of green and white on this image (result of breakwater waves or cells rolling on shallow sea).

The density differentials form the colours here as the river water from Russia moves along and rolls a bit like Swiss roll on its way to deep water near Fram Strait. The high density water is white as sea surface is lower than the ocean median ice surface (the median lines are highlighted on image for clarity), the low density river water is green due to it representing higher than the ocean median ice surface (due to its being less saline, it needs higher water column than saline water to keep ocean surface at equilibrium pressure).

The white colour forms over the dense water where ocean surface is lower than median and fills with drift snow. The green colour forms on the crest that is higher and without the drift snow that accumulates on troughs. The snow accumulation further amplifies the effect anchoring even more snow over the dense, saline rollers.

Because of this constant rolling of Swiss rolls between the ocean floor and its surface (sea ice), there is an overall current which has higher gravity potential and faster forward movement on surface, this then marks the boundary between antepenultimate "A", and penultimate "B" as the B flows slower than A.

These things have also changed over the years as ice in overall has pulverised and not been forming uniform films, but overall show the effect of North Asian rivers discharging onto the Arctic Ocean and forming weak points by supply of warmer water and its mixing and dragging heat out from warmer waters beneath - then maintaining a thinner ice along a narrow channel which presses against Canada (Western Last Sea Ice Area, by splitting the sea ice C/B and B/A, with B/A junction also running at different speed.

The differential movement on p. 8 is shown by 12 perpendicular secondary cracks (highlighted) on the main B/A crossing from Komsomoletski Island to Ellesmere Island.

Page 9 focuses on vortices or breakwater cells that fall into the deep channel, warm up aggressively and surface like cumulus cloud with the centre of pancake elevated with edges bending down and below median and filled by snow. These curving sea ice "spaghetti" edge formations are rare in comparison of the rectangular edge formations caused by breaking ice and re-freezing ice.

The rest of my Curriculum Vitae outside pages 8, 9, 10 are irrelevant to this forum.
https://www.academia.edu/5859691/Curriculum_Vitae_for_Exploration_and_Research

It's useful to read the Wikipedia entry on Pressure Ridges, and another entry about Stamukha.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha

Quote
Pressure ridges are the thickest sea ice features and account for about one-half of the total sea ice volume. Stamukhi are pressure ridges that are grounded and that result from the interaction between fast ice and the drifting pack ice.

Quote
One of the largest pressure ridges on record had a sail extending 12 metres (39 ft) above the water surface, and a keel depth of 45 metres (148 ft). The total thickness for a multiyear ridge was reported to be 40 metres (130 ft). On average, total thickness ranges between 5 metres (16 ft) and 30 metres (98 ft), with a mean sail height that remains below 2 metres (6.6 ft).

Interesting. stamukha (the grounded version of ridges) are most often found at depth of 20m which corresponds to Niall's depth chart above. Additionally, stamukha is a Russian word and the crack in question is found on the Russian coast.

So far, the shoe fits !!

So, a good working theory is that the repeating initial crack in the ESS is found at the 20m depth stamukha line.

If I were to imagine how the works in total, you have incoming warm Atlantic water entering the Arctic and Coriolis forces have it hugging the Siberian coast until it hits the stamukha wall and is forced toward the surface which is just a few meters above. Sound reasonable ?

Thanks for the wiki link Oren.

Edit: Alternative / complementary view is that the opening of this crack is also influenced heavily by wind. Looking at Aluminum's most recent post (#339) it seems like the crack was pretty wide a few days ago and then shut down with a change in wind direction.

29
Arctic sea ice / Arctic Sea Ice In The Far Past
« on: April 19, 2020, 06:41:35 PM »
6000-7000 YEARS AGO NO SEA ICE IN ARCTIC OCEAN (not even in winter)

We at Sea Research Society have been concerned of the Ice Free Arctic Ocean 7000 years ago and I have raised this issue at the UK Parliament and at the United Nations many times:

"Geological Survey of Norway - Summary: Recent mapping of a number of raised beach ridges on the north coast of Greenland suggests that the ice cover in the Arctic Ocean was greatly reduced some 6000-7000 years ago. The Arctic Ocean may have been periodically ice free." https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/10/081020095850.htm

However, there is a serious caveat to this darling discovery of climate change denialists (it won their prestigious the coveted global 1st prize for best scientific research to expose "global warming scam"):

1) All year-open Arctic beaches that are lifted off the sea on northeast of Greenland are washed in the tail currents from Iceland and Jan Mayen further in the south. As we know these islands have come about as result of numerous Surtseyan eruptions of gigantic scales. Although recent Surtsey eruptions (from 6.11.1963 to 5.6.1967) caused only tiny heat emission (radial-diffusion from heat spot) to sea water, the spatially far larger prehistoric effusive eruptions of same type caused perpendicular field emissions with heat diffusion happening as evaporation via the sea surface (perpendicular field emission depends strictly on the ratio of heated seafloor's spatial extent to its overlying water column thickness). As of this, the Gulf Steam would then transport heated water northwards where it met at the shores of the Independence Fjord. (There is also sea current forming upwelling polnya here due to bottom ocean water rising in the area to give a localised heating a further helping hand.) So, do not believe 7k ago Arctic Ocean occurring ice-free all year round.

2) The tail-current catchment diffuses in and around North Pole where ice berg dropping stones from moraine (that had melted off from the bottoms of ice bergs) were found in a mixture with tropical algae (Apectodinium) which dies in temperatures below +24C. How could Apectodinium exist if the climate in the Arctic was cold enough for the ice bergs? Add here the perpendicular field emission of heat into sea currents from Iceland - Jan Mayen ridge region and you have a constant supply of winter-steam to precipitate on landmasses to build glaciers and ice bergs and also make tropical plants perfectly happy in this Santa Cloud jacuzzi of polar bears and reindeers. You would then also find coastal areas further away with lots of precipitation and melt with Azolla growing in their breakwaters while ice floes would form even further away, break away from the coast and then drift to warmer waters and drop pebbles to seafloor in area where Azolla could grow: http://azolla.fc.ul.pt/documents/BBCNEWS_Science.pdf

We at Sea Research Society have been working expeditions to extract Apectodinium and Azolla algae from frozen and freeze-dried permafrost ex-seabed in these elevated sands of Greenland to blow trumpet on Icelands geothermal behemoth on all this.

3) This has certainly been the case in Antarctic, but also Norway (and we propose Independence Fjord too as well as for Apectodinium and Azolla occurrence in ice berg and ice floe filled Arctic Ocean).

"In the Northern Hemisphere, scientists have also discovered fossil evidence of ice age refuges in the high latitudes, where plants such as white spruce trees thrived in places like Norway, despite chilly weather and giant glaciers. These "cryptic refugia" have not yet been directly linked to volcanoes or geothermal areas." http://www.nbcnews.com/id/54636524/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/volcanoes-helped-antarctic-life-weather-ice-ages/#.Xpxk5S-ZNQI

4) Cryptic refugia existed in Norway where spruce trees filled the mountain tops while the fjords were packed to the brim with snow and ice. Glaciers kept forming through the Ice Ages due to westerlies blowing in endlessly snow with a constant flow of latent heat to Norway coming from Greenland Sea. Norwegian refugia is nothing to do with any local volcano but heat from Mid Atlantic Ridge escaping via ocean. Thus, Pleistocene era katabatic winds could not kill trees in warm and moist Norwegian nunataks between the fjords nor blow away their topsoil (unlike in xeric and cold Greenland nunataks). So, Norway's nunataks trees, flowers and grasses retained topsoil tied on the ground - while the less lucky Greenland nunataks received cold and xeric Foxe-Laurentide's katabatic westernlies to freeze-dry all life out of existence in Greenland nunataks to turn them into barren rocky patches in the ice pack that surrounds them. So Greenland mountain top nunataks ended devoid of all trees while Norway's blossomed in flowers and trees all Ice Ages through. Blame the only Islandic ice-Jotuns and Hellheimers for all this Norse mess: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17235229

United Nation's Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised the original motion for tabling on the floor of United Nations General Assembly in the immediate aftermath of The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June in 1992 which was forwarded to the UNFCCC's Depositary, His Excellency António Guterres, the current Secretary-General of the United Nations at the Bonn conference proceedings on 10th May 2018 for COP24 meeting at Katowiche, Poland: https://unfccc.int/documents/65045 and https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue

We are in deep waters literally if the Arctic Ocean sea ice melts away summertimes as all the heat and meltwater buildup in low-lying northern Greenland Ice Sheet will be catastrophic with its surface melt, flash floods from the ocean in summer, and water accumulation within the darkened ice and under it.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Reseach Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.

Possibly, although some have suggested that it may been as recently as 100,000 years ago.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL057188
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html

Others as recently as 6,000 years ago.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162?np=y
https://phys.org/news/2008-10-ice-arctic-ocean-years.html

I've been skeptical of assertions there have been more recent melt outs of the Arctic than during the late Pliocene warm period - which coincidentally corresponds to the last time atmospheric CO2 was this high.

I'm open to the possibility it's happened, but I haven't seen enough yet that's sufficiently definitive to convince me.

Others are welcome to post to that effect and I'll be happy to chew through them.

30
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: March 21, 2020, 03:42:00 AM »
S E A   R E S E A R C H   S O C I E T Y ' S   A P P E A L   T O
T H E  G O V E R N M E N T S  W O R L D - W I D E  :

WORLD GOVERNMENTS MUST LEARN FROM CORONAVIRUS EMISSIONS SHUTDOWN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are computer models of the world's atmosphere based on observations and assumptions if there are no direct information available. World emissions shutdowns are a novel opportunity to learn about how climate system responds under different circumstances that cannot be normally experimentally checked. It is vitally important for the world's governments not to shut down meteorological measurements. Indeed, efforts must increase to use opportunity to test and search regional responses of the highly unusual situation. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and national meteorological organisations must quickly come up with new research proposals to gain every possible bit of information as this helps to understand how world's climate will respond as the world moves towards ZERO emissions. It is a tremendous tragedy if this unique opportunity to find more about how our atmosphere operates is lost. We do not foresee many situations like this rising when large world regions turn their lights off one after another. Modelling SO2, N2O, O3, CFC, CO2, CH4, CO shut downs.

Sponsors, please look at serious proposals to make research offers right now!
Let's make something positive happen out of this coronavirus calamity.

Veli Albert Kallio
Vice President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2020, 02:21:27 AM »
Passing the February leap day, we have now arrived to the start of the spring quarter, which means that the spring equinox is now only three weeks away - bringing the sun out of hiding on the North Pole, visible light images on the Arctic Ocean improving.  8)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 29, 2020, 01:29:18 PM »
I suspect that the Laxton Sea will materialize this year. The late University College London Professor late Seymour Laxton's seminal forecast of summer 2020 being the first year when the Arctic Ocean becomes ice free 'blue ocean' in summer time

The Laxton Sea (Blue Ocean Event) sits roughly in the mid-point of the early millennium 'early-bird forecasters for fast North Pole sea ice loss' against the forecasts of the IPCC and the Arctic Council.

Even as late as February 2007, the Arctic Council's "Arctic Impact Report" proposed the Arctic Ocean becoming ice free as late as year 2150 (which of course flied into face of FIPC's campaign of imminent event at the time).

Arctic Council produced two stage graphs with purpose to show two interim stages to the ice-free ocean. One of these suggested ice area for around 2040-2060 period, and another for 2070-2100 period. Only four to five months later (July-August 2007) the sea ice area loss approached this 2040-2060 graph with the Arctic Council abandoning its report. I got called to present FIPC point of view at RSE VII Symposium: Arctic - Mirror of Life where I was sitting on a press panel with Robert W Correll  (Arctic Council's lead author), Jane Lubchenko (then-to-be NOAA head), and Terry Callaghan http://www.rsesymposia.org/hbmore.php?catid=164&pcatid=162&thehbid=27

FIPC (Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean, and myself) based our extrapolation of the rapid sea ice area shrinking on summers 2005, 2006 & 2007 which was a linear extrapolation to hit (at that given rate) to zero around 2010 - only if sea ice area reduction had continued shrinking on that 3-year decline rate, perhaps slightly accelerating). This was, of course, not looking at thickness and other complex issues which have become obvious.

Peter Wadham of Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge was perhaps the first person to raise concern for the shrinking ice body in the Arctic Ocean having observed a considerable thinning for years before the issue became visible on sea ice's spatial extent and stability. Already in 1990's Peter Wadhams appeared in the British newspapers pointing to considerable thinning in submarine upward sonar measurements taken throughout the Cold War as part of war games with the then USSR and then Russia. Peter Wadham's first ice free Arctic Ocean was forecast slightly later to FIPC date 2010, suggesting the summer 2012 in the forecast made towards the end of the first decade of the third millennium. (This made the full front page news on The First News newspaper at the time and appeared reported less prominently in other papers at the time in the UK.)

Wiesław Masłowski of Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California was third early bird at the time also suggesting early sea ice loss against the conventional views of the time. Though I do not have the exact dates for him, perhaps because his influence is in the US regions.

So, how the Laxton Sea materialises now? Perhaps, with the fringes melting really fast, followed by unstable and migratory Central Arctic ice pack that is increasingly tossed around and smashed by waves and weakened by warm temperatures. It is, of course, far too much said that persistent wind patterns, jet streams, and movement of depression systems and flow of warm air pan out.

My main concern for the Laxton Sea this summer would be its impact on north Greenland Ice Sheet and build up of water in moulins and crevasses and destabilzation of land ice post sea ice:
https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

IPCC's very first date for the ice-free Arctic Ocean remains year 2030 (hence my statement of the Laxton Sea sitting on the mid-point of early birds 2010 and laggards earliest point at 2030).

"ice north of Greenland" With persistent lows over Barents the tidally enhanced flow into the arctic would increase, some water has to leave, i guess the shear zone is quite shallow and everthing above it is moving towards Fram, hence the unusual size of the area on the move. The more or less persistent high[mslp] on the Beaufort side would add to the impetus. It's hard to establish any current but once established a 'slime effect' come into play and until some other random event disturbs the flow it'll persist. If Wayne at eh2r is right we may be stuck with this weather pattern for some time, so the loss of ice may begin to define the season.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 11, 2019, 02:57:52 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice forms a formidable barrier for oxygen to penetrate into the ocean, but also does help the ocean to retain more of its existing oxygen in summers as the melting ice keeps water below ice cooler - so that more oxygen can remain dissolved within the water. This topic has come up at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s annual roadshow UN Conference of Parties 25 (COP25) currently meeting in Madrid, Spain. However, at first, there is also a passage of a very sad news item - which I must pass first :'(:

IN MEMORIAM: DR MATTI K. LAPPALAINEN

Dr. Matti K. Lappalainen, Councellor of the State of Finland on Environment ('Ymparistoneuvos'), the world's foremost expert in large water body oxygenation (oceans, seas, the Amazon river etc) has died in a research-related accident. As a Vice-President, Environmental Affairs at Sea Research Society, I was often doing projects with him and he was my co-author on research on mitigation of the Amazon ecosystems for the changing climate which we presented at the World Water Week, Stockholm, August 2007. More recently Matti worked to oxygenate the Baltic Sea. In Tammisaari, Finland he rehabilitated 28km2 pilot plot and another anoxic sea area near Stockholm, Sweden of slightly smaller size. Future plans held for oxygenation of anoxic sea area east of Gotland, Sweden and in various other locations around the Baltic Sea. Before Dr Lappalainen, no one had ever attempted or succeeded in recovering anoxic seas and oceans by the breakthrough Mixox technology. He also made dissertation of his work for the University of Oulu. The world has lost one of its greatest minds and unique expert who is near impossible to replace.

https://www.academia.edu/4299120/Kallio_Veli_A._and_Lappalainen_M._Preparing_the_Amazon_Ecosystems_for_the_Changing_Climate_pp._240-241
(PDF) Kallio, Veli A. & Lappalainen, M.: Preparing the Amazon Ecosystems for the Changing Climate, pp. 240-241. | Veli Albert Kallio - Academia.edu

The issue is absolutely important, the United Nations Conference of Parties 25 is just debating on the matter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

Prof Dan Daffoley - IUCN Deoxygenation of Oceans - YouTube
"We are now seeing increasingly low levels of dissolved oxygen across large areas of the open ocean. This is perhaps the ultimate wake-up call" https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

The most recent research and PhD dissertation of Matti Lappalainen1,2 (268 pages)
1University of Oulu Graduate School
2University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology, Environmental Engineering

The dissertation was publicly defended at the East Finland University in Kuopio on large water body oxygenation (in this case the Baltic Sea) and analysis of the problem (with the Baltic Sea's anoxic situation) is downloadable here as electronic version:

http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526219417
http://jultika.oulu.fi/Record/isbn978-952-62-1941-7   
http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/isbn9789526219417.pdf

Lappalainen, K. Matti, A renewed diagnosis and paradigm for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. University of Oulu Graduate School; University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Vice-President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

https://exploresrs.academia.edu/VeliKallio
Veli Albert Kallio | Sea Research Society - Academia.edu

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 24, 2019, 02:07:32 AM »
What comes to my mind is a rock debris flow of rock over a glacier tongue.. Tunnelling is by water, not ice.  ;)

I was randomly looking at some landscape in the CAA in the Sentinel-hub and found this in the North of Devon Island (exact position can be seen in the bottom right of the picture). Unfortunately I didn't find the name of this glacier.

What are my eyes seeing here? Did the glacier carve a tunnel through the mountain or are those two completely seperate glaciers?

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=76.3746&lng=-91.8694&zoom=12&time=undefined&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L1C

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 23, 2019, 03:08:54 AM »
Seymour Laxton at the University College London (UCL) forecast few years ago that 2020 would be the year of open seas. Looking at sea ice thickness maps, one thing which sticks to my eye is that all ice has thinned and the minuscule thick residue of thick 2-metre sea ice can be pushed out and scattered by wind just about anywhere. Something that I forecast at "Arctic - Mirror of Life" RSE VII Symposium in Ilulissat, Greenland, September 2007. I think the ice volume is now so low that unless there are big freezes in winter it is hard for ice to catch up due to ocean's increased heat content: the deeper water layers have gathered more heat under the ice fince 2007 or 2012 days. So, the ocean must ventilate so much more to recover back to those levels of ice plus less cold ocean water. We still about 3-4 weeks advance in melt levels for no ice left situation (unless we get CAC style vertical mixer)  8)

After the Sea Ice, we can start to speculate Greenland Ice Sheet futures when there is no more summer Arctic sea ice around it. This was my take to that problem at the UK Houses of Parliament: https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

This year is very reminiscent of 2011. One can expect an unprecedented disaster in 2020.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 07:24:43 PM »
As the spatial extent of the Central Arctic / North Pole floating sea ice cap reduces, the open ocean area correspondingly increases. This leads to increasing possibility of lopsided residual cap  that could drift away from its 90 degree north location. The residual cap can also eventually split and splinter into large separated units just before disappearing completely, which I presented at RSE VII, "Arctic - Mirror of Life", conference Ilulissat, Greenland in September 2007.
http://rsesymposia.org/hbmore.php?catid=164&pcatid=162&thehbid=27

University College of London's late Seymour Laxton's last suggestion was that there would be no sea ice left at the end of summer 2020, or slightly earlier. It looks like his view may hit the bull's eye. Sadly, he passed away a few years ago due to accidental fall on new year.

Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans (FIPC) proposed in 2005 complete melting around early to mid 2010's, Professor of Ocean Physics Peter Wadhams 2009 forecast was sea ice to disappear completely by 2012. On the early days there were less information on sea ice thickness which made it hard to make firm conclusions. Wiesław Masłowski is a research professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey who also made suggestions of sea ice being lost this decade much in line with myself and Peter Wadhams about decade ago.

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Environmental Affairs Department
Sea Research Society
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

What keeps the ice in the center of the arctic?

Low temperature. No sun / solar radiation in winter.

Far from land based heat in summer. The perimeter sea ice offers a buffer.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 14, 2018, 06:13:14 PM »
The extremely warm water near the Svalbard on the Fram Strait must come from south. When water at +20C mixes with sea ice and sea water (only -2.5C), water in sea becomes turbulent. I now believe some of the sinking north-heading Gulf Stream current is captured and thrown into surface trajectory. However, this current stir-melting and mixing off NE Greenland may not be entirely novel:

There have been vertical water chimneys and vertical eddies in the Fram Strait area as seen in these three images from 2006 with curvilinear ice formations formed up by the rising eddies. They are seen patterning thick sea ice in curious, curvilinear forms behind the Svalbard. (I showed these to Peter Wadhams and we thought at the time, them possibly being cold freshwater eddies fallen off from continental shelf to the deep water, then warmed and and rising to surface. In that case they would have drifted from the Kara Sea to the Fram Strait. But now the recent developments suggest that these vertical eddies then seen (2006) imprinted on sea ice behind the Fram Strait could be veered off tentacles of the deep current: - sort of grand parents to the eddies now seen north of Greenland. ;) 

A look at the southwest corner of the Lincoln Sea (at the entrance to Nares) on Worldview confirms a very disturbing development as shown by A-Team's recent posts. The ice is actually melting in-situ in the Lincoln Sea, not simply blown northward by winds (as happened in February 2018 for example).
The animation begins around July 1st when the Nares entrance plug first cracked and broke. At first the ice was lifted off Ellesmere to the east, then part of it including some very large floes spilled into the Nares. All of this is rather common for this time of year. But afterwards, as evidenced by the fast ice breaking off the fjord to the right of the image, the ice started moving erratically with open water appearing and growing rapidly within the ice field, showing a very strong melting process. This location should not be having such a rapid melt-out of local ice. It shows both relatively thin ice and (probably) very warm/saline sea surface.
Note the last image is showing another breakup of the fast ice in the fjord.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 14, 2018, 05:44:37 PM »
Today's phenomenal scale of sea ice pulverisation is contrasted here with second / multi-year ice in this now historic satellite multiplex image from 2006 which reveals the second year sea ice blocks from 2005 as immense white patches within the dark and thin sea ice of 2005-6 winter season as seen during 2006 summer. Today, the previous years' broken sea ice is pulverised into a mosaic with myriad fragments now occurring in smaller scales than satellite image can capture. All those hundreds to thousand mile blocks of fragmented MYI a little over a decade ago are non existent today.

In my view it is important to refer back to some historic images to remind ourselves how far the sea ice has fragmented in the last 10 years and what this will mean for the next ten years. (No multi-year or second year sea ice at all.)  :'(

More good sentinel images available of the Lincoln. There's actually lots of recent clear ones off the CAA quite far out into the basin, and over the ESAS where the central packs been getting expelled. This stuff in the Lincoln actually looks in the best condition of anywhere. The biggest floe in the sea zoomed in on. And an area of 100% concentration, area, and extent, because the gaps are below 250m ::)

39
I have cited sections of this thread in the UK Houses of Parliament evidence on Section "4. The John Mercer Effect: the ‘Forbidden Line’ on Sea Level Rise". Unfortunately, due to the Parliament rules, I could not represent whole text as such but had to abbreviate and leave out few points. I am also rather sad because this was thought by many at one good solution for climate change. :'(

Our Changing Climate in Action: the Risk of Global Warming and the Environmental Damage from the Rising Ocean Water Table | Sustainable Seas Enquiry | Written evidence submitted by Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS (SSI0121) | Ordered to be published 23 May 2018 by the House of Commons.

Abstract:

Recently NATURE published a discussion on construction of sills in attempt to prevent or slow melting glaciers that are discharging ice into the ice fjords. Several further papers promptly followed publication of this essentially erroneous article in a respected NATURE magazine. Here it is pointed out that there is a discrepancy of several magnitudes thus excluding a long-term viability to manage the edges of ice fjords or continental ice shelves/sheets due to a phenomenon known as the mega-erratics. These are blocks of hard rocks that are several kilometres in size that have been dislocated by a warmed and wet edges of glacier/ice sheet/ice shelf. This Parliament evidence points out the error that was not apparent to the peer-reviewers at the time and in subsequent papers that followed. The Parliament was shown evidence that large enough obstacles cannot be possibly made to prevent ice discharges due to a progression of melting, that softens and lubricates glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. The forces unleashed by the ice front exceeds several magnitudes from the conceived objects that sills were proposed. The only, and very only effect is temporary and limited to prevention of warm water incursion where these methods will work for a while in a cold, dry, and relatively stable ice formations.

Long-term projections suggested to prevent warmed and water-infested glaciers from discharging ice into the ocean cannot be made as the forces of ice exceed many magnitudes of the sills and levies that can be made of concrete blocks, aggregates or other materials. Thus the prevention of sea level rise by this method for centuries or millennia is not functional one and thus the mitigation and prevention of rubbish gyros in ocean, the supply of housing, nuclear and food production security must be looked at as solution by the ocean littoral states. Several examples of various types of risk to the sustainability of oceans have been presented in addition to the above exposed misconception. This comes with much regret as it appears that one 'hoped-for-solution' to manage the future climate change impacts has largely foundered on the issue that the sills cannot be made strong enough to contain most important, warmed glaciers or edges of unstable ice shelves. However, for a short-term this may offer small-scale solutions provided that costs remain sufficiently small. Aggressively melting ice formations with darkened surfaces, wide spread melt water ponds, or water filled crevasses it does not offer much, if any, prolonged ice stability. (The document is best viewed as a .pdf file due to the lay-out of graph and legends.)

https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

Stopping the Flood: Could We Use Targeted Geoengineering to Mitigate Sea Level Rise?
Michael J. Wolovick1 and John C. Moore2,3
1Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Program, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, GFDL, 201 Forrestal Road,
Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
2College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
3Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Finland
Correspondence: M.J. Wolovick (wolovick@princeton.edu)

Abstract. The Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) is a dynamic feedback that can cause an ice sheet to enter a runaway collapse. Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is the largest individual source of future sea level rise and may have already entered the MISI. Here, we use a suite of coupled ice–ocean flowband simulations to explore whether targeted geoengineering using an artificial sill or artificial ice rises could counter a collapse. Successful interventions occur when the floating ice shelf regrounds 5 on the pinning points, increasing buttressing and reducing ice flux across the grounding line. Regrounding is more likely with a continuous sill that is able to block warm water transport to the grounding line. The smallest design we consider is comparable in scale to existing civil engineering projects but has only a 30% success rate, while larger designs are more effective. There are multiple possible routes forward to improve upon the designs that we considered, and with decades or more to research designs it is plausible that the scientific community could come up with a plan that was both effective and achievable. While 10 reducing emissions remains the short-term priority for minimizing the effects of climate change, in the long run humanity may need to develop contingency plans to deal with an ice sheet collapse.

--

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/environmental-audit-committee/sustainable-seas/written/83150.pdf

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 31, 2018, 11:02:08 PM »
Our Changing Climate in Action: the Risk of Global Warming and the Environmental Damage from the Rising Ocean Water Table | Sustainable Seas Enquiry | Written evidence submitted by Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS (SSI0121) | Ordered to be published 23 May 2018 by the House of Commons.

Abstract:

Recently NATURE published a discussion on construction of sills in attempt to prevent or slow melting glaciers that are discharging ice into the ice fjords. Several further papers promptly followed publication of this essentially erroneous article in a respected NATURE magazine. Here it is pointed out that there is a discrepancy of several magnitudes thus excluding a long-term viability to manage the edges of ice fjords or continental ice shelves/sheets due to a phenomenon known as the mega-erratics. These are blocks of hard rocks that are several kilometres in size that have been dislocated by a warmed and wet edges of glacier/ice sheet/ice shelf. This Parliament evidence points out the error that was not apparent to the peer-reviewers at the time and in subsequent papers that followed. The Parliament was shown evidence that large enough obstacles cannot be possibly made to prevent ice discharges due to a progression of melting, that softens and lubricates glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. The forces unleashed by the ice front exceeds several magnitudes from the conceived objects that sills were proposed. The only, and very only effect is temporary and limited to prevention of warm water incursion where these methods will work for a while in a cold, dry, and relatively stable ice formations.

Long-term projections suggested to prevent warmed and water-infested glaciers from discharging ice into the ocean cannot be made as the forces of ice exceed many magnitudes of the sills and levies that can be made of concrete blocks, aggregates or other materials. Thus the prevention of sea level rise by this method for centuries or millennia is not functional one and thus the mitigation and prevention of rubbish gyros in ocean, the supply of housing, nuclear and food production security must be looked at as solution by the ocean littoral states. Several examples of various types of risk to the sustainability of oceans have been presented in addition to the above exposed misconception. This comes with much regret as it appears that one 'hoped-for-solution' to manage the future climate change impacts has largely foundered on the issue that the sills cannot be made strong enough to contain most important, warmed glaciers or edges of unstable ice shelves. However, for a short-term this may offer small-scale solutions provided that costs remain sufficiently small. Aggressively melting ice formations with darkened surfaces, wide spread melt water ponds, or water filled crevasses it does not offer much, if any, prolonged ice stability. (The document is best viewed as a .pdf file due to the lay-out of graph and legends.)

https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

Stopping the Flood: Could We Use Targeted Geoengineering to Mitigate Sea Level Rise?
Michael J. Wolovick1 and John C. Moore2,3
1Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Program, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, GFDL, 201 Forrestal Road,
Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
2College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
3Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Finland
Correspondence: M.J. Wolovick (wolovick@princeton.edu)

Abstract. The Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI) is a dynamic feedback that can cause an ice sheet to enter a runaway collapse. Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is the largest individual source of future sea level rise and may have already entered the MISI. Here, we use a suite of coupled ice–ocean flowband simulations to explore whether targeted geoengineering using an artificial sill or artificial ice rises could counter a collapse. Successful interventions occur when the floating ice shelf regrounds 5 on the pinning points, increasing buttressing and reducing ice flux across the grounding line. Regrounding is more likely with a continuous sill that is able to block warm water transport to the grounding line. The smallest design we consider is comparable in scale to existing civil engineering projects but has only a 30% success rate, while larger designs are more effective. There are multiple possible routes forward to improve upon the designs that we considered, and with decades or more to research designs it is plausible that the scientific community could come up with a plan that was both effective and achievable. While 10 reducing emissions remains the short-term priority for minimizing the effects of climate change, in the long run humanity may need to develop contingency plans to deal with an ice sheet collapse.

--

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/environmental-audit-committee/sustainable-seas/written/83150.pdf

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 15, 2018, 09:32:36 PM »
I think the recent heat in this forum is the result that it was one of the first places where people come together to discover the possibility that the Arctic Ocean could become ice free very soon. Then, when the weather and fluctuations have deferred that ultimate but possible outcome from realising, people have become disappointed as too little, or too slowly things are happening. Rest assured, when that sad day sooner or later comes, there is little to nothing to celebrate, despite shortened shipping lanes to Asia. In the mean time, let's keep our forum civilised and avoid accusations or conspiracy claims.  :o

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 03:41:10 PM »
First Image: Although without my analytical tools, the cloud masked open sea water on Laptev Sea approximates the area I have drawn in blue line (clouds are not fully opaque).

Second Image: A brief look at the temperature charts for Wednesday at higher resolution shows areas also over ice at over +10C (patches of yellow hues in two areas). This suggest me a melting rate of some 15 cm per day in a sunny weather. Fournier Triangulation (averaging) has smoothened out and reduced the size of yellow patches in the sea of green in image processing.

Thanks for all condolences received due to our recent fatal accident at our 100ft research vessel R/V Urraca where our expedition photographer fell to her death recently. We have been utterly devastated for a fatal accident relating to our operation of oceanographic research vessel "Urraca" that  claimed the life of Lauren McEntire Spence. It appears that Lauren tripped on the deck of the boat then felling into the sea and hitting her head hard. Her fall was observed but her falling unconscious while falling contributed to her drowning injuries. She was quickly recovered but died from her injuries and a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lung infection. Lauren was married to Dr. Edward Lee Spence, the current President of Sea Research Society. Marine operations are always hazardous and one could never expect such a premature death for our expedition photographer Lauren who was in her best years. :'(  This is our second crew loss incident we have had in 45 years of operations since 1973. (R/V Urraca was previously operated by the Smithsonian Institution before its transfer to Sea Research Society operations.)
https://www.dignitymemorial.com/obituaries/irmo-sc/rebecca-lauren-spence-7852633

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