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Messages - longwalks1

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The rest / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: September 20, 2020, 01:18:13 PM »
Another either or dichotomy.   

When we were engaging in mass non-violent civil disobedience ( say 400 line crossers at SNIC Bellevue south of Omaha - home to usOfa nuclear war planning) training was deeply committed to all understanding  the humanity and sacredness of all the people serving in the military.   Or the 1000's plus getting ban and bar letters at Fort Benning Georgia. These days it is present in the re-invigoration of ciivil disobedience in Germany and Belgium for usOfa nuclear weapons based there. Legislators are climbing over the the strangle wire at German bases with nuclear weapons postioned there.  (My favourite method of going over the strangle wire involved hand sewn quilts by WELCA (Women of the Evangelical Lutheran Church).)

However for the dissonance today, there was absolutely nothing there in the decades past  to match the banality and the evil of Rush Limbaugh (opiate addict like some Nazis) and his compadres.  And it was brought to you via the rampant corporatism present everywhere in the usOfa.   All the radio stations (and tv) were being gobbled up in near horizontal and vertical monopolies - the saving grace from being dismembered was that the largest corporations involved stopped at it being a cartel.   

There was nothing like it with the liberals.  (Please do not associate all liberals with the left).  Today, the Democrats and Republicans use bascially the same ad campaign, advertising techniques, basically propoganda.  The Democrats, especially the Neo-Liberal ilk are getting almost as good at selling hate and the Koch-CocaCola capitalists.   For me it is a sense of deja vu at the old vehemence betwixt the Socialist Workers Party, Revolutionary Communist party etc etc all the Trotskyist wings of Marxism back in the days of the 70's and 80's.   For Biden to call Trump a crook and heartless man is as senselessly chimerical as for Trump to call Biden a  hard left Liberal or soft on crime.  For the media purveyors, the venom is a veneer between tweedle-dee and tweedle-dumber.   

I still practice the techniques of finding the human in all, it is a core practice of anyone travelling the path the some guy named Jeshua from Nazareth as well as  followers of Gautama Buddha.  Or look at the books on Compassion by US house of Rep. Tim Ryan  from a Christian perspective or the book By Thich Nhat Hahn.   You can see the similariites between Ryan's'"A Mindful Nation: How a Simple Practice Can Help Us Reduce Stress, Improve Performance, and Recapture the American Spirit" and Thich, but his acknoledgement credits John Kabat-Zinn more.   

Yea, try finding that book or others like it or anything involving radical (or even not so radical) compassion in your local usOfa library (It was in the Winnipeg MB library). Try finding that on the airwaves there.   What is found there is the adage "Does it sell soap".  Chaos (an integral part of The Apprentice and numerous political campains that got free advertising via chaos), lies and half truths and division are integral part of advertising and the media at large in the usOfa.  Dark fucking days ahead.  I would really really really like to go back to Canada, but if you work at compassion with as much effort as others work at capitalism - well you are unable  to be 1000 km away (edit from your parents)  when they need help as they age and no one else will step up to the plate. 

I console myself with the words Muslims that I sheltered the homeless with in community told me,  "The true jihad is found to be waged in the heart."  And it is something that has to be practiced every day in these very dark fucking days in the US. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 05:08:46 AM »
From Archmid
I would love for it to work, I would embrace it the moment I see good evidence it works. I haven't seen anything but anecdotes.

I would love to see good evidence it works. 

Just over at Renewable energy transitions   real quick skim,   and just on and on and on about EROI.  Similar here to my eye on HCQ.

My uneducated leanings on HCQ.   My leanings are that too small a dose has no therapeutic effect.  And that it is all too easy to give an excessive dose.  Another leaning is that if it does work, it works best earlier on in the onset.  Especially if the liver is degrading, and of course, some metabolic pathways might degrade faster in the liver than others as the liver degrades. 

   And there is the metabolism and Pharmacodynamics.   I would love to see a not overly dense monograph on that from the recent past.   DuckDuckgo  not going so well for me.  However metabolism segues into Cytochrome-P450 in this case.  And which of what types and in what amounts  is present in the patient.   One type might have one speed, another type a different speed and possibly a different metabolite.  Also, since the HCQ is active on heme's,  is it active on all or some porphyrins?   

 It has been almost 40 years since my senior paper split between "can electron tunneling be proven in vivo in cytochromes or is it just probable at 4k"  The other part was of P-450 in its wide diversity, making a carcinogen out of benzene, arene oxide formation, do arene oxides affect DNA, the wildly diverse subtypes.  How those subtypes varies among humans.   I have not kept up.

Side issue.  of course I trust medical studies from countries that utilize universal health care over studies in the usOfa.  Well, off to work, another 50 plus hour week. 

Let us all endeavour on a higher level of S/N and mutual respect.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 08, 2020, 12:05:25 AM »
Andre    -  That is quite the caveat  - most - underlined via moi. 
Perhaps this is where the United States of Trump typically differ from Europe - in most

I can't seem to get the current daily positives via the world version of John's Hopkins, but if someone knows somewhere else on the web to get European values, it would be interesting to see the most recent numbers of positives and positivity for the UK, Poland and Romania. 

Having worked 15 years in Canada and seeing the near night and day differences in the way Covid spread between the two shows  "how to" and "how not to".

 Having sheltered homeless war veterans with pacifist anarcho-syndicalists in the US in the late 80's for 6 years - if you wish to argue that the US is fast becoming a second world country, I would not argue.  But having listened to and observed the callous cruelty to the poor and people of colour since the 1960's, my pacifist friends in the usOfa will emphatically state that Trump is a symptom, not the disease. With the disease of Covid, you have to watch out for your back door.  Recent positives and positivity in UK and Poland would be a good window into those back doors into Europe and also a window into how political systems that emulate the usOfa fare for Covid. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 07, 2020, 12:59:38 PM »
RikW  That is a pretty bold statement about Western Countries -  considering how things are going in Iowa and South Dakota.   etc.   Personally I am a bit dismal about FCity playing Britt Iowa in football, and there is the meat packing town of Eagle Grove to play later.   And the Indians face off against the Cowboys of Clarion later also from Wright county.  At the college level 25,000 fans will congregate Sept 12 in Ames IA for the ISU Cyclones football game, whole lot of Ag and Engineering   and Vetrinarian grads arriving from the more sparsely poplulated  counties, totally different crowd from the  U of Ia games.
Story County, nigh 3000 per 100K.  Of the 200 that tested positive 10 days ago, how good do you thing the contact tracing is?   17 Icu beds total in Story County home of  Iowa State U. 

Wright County with Eagle Grove and Clarion are at 4,000 plus per 100K.

I can see the ICU's being overwhelmed in Iowa very easily over the next 2 months.   


Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: September 04, 2020, 04:27:52 AM »
It does not actually have Trumps fingers on it,  not the EPA, but it is his comrades and part of The Assault on Science.

And what if on top of all this he cost the university nothing? What if, in fact, he was a cash cow, one who, as lead scientist or co-lead, had brought in over 90 projects and $30 million in grants to the university?

And what if not only his salary, but the salary of his associates, historically as many as 10 people, were paid from these grants?   In addition, what if the university demanded and received add-ons of up to 60 percent to cover its “administrative” costs?

Wouldn’t every reasonably sane university president with an ounce of business sense value this man not only for his accomplishments and the money he brings to the budget challenged university, but for the gild he added to the university’s escutcheon?

Such a man does exist.  His name is Dr. Detlev Helmig.  And so does such a university.  It is the University of Colorado.  It has a new president, Mark Kennedy, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota.  The university’s Board of Regents hired him last year, despite substantial student and faculty opposition, for his purported business acumen—acumen so great, in fact, that the regents awarded him a compensation package in excess of one million dollars annually.

Dr. Helmig worked at the University of Colorado-Boulder for 25 years as both a teacher and atmospheric scientist.  Never had he received anything but an above satisfactory performance review from his bosses.

Michelle Bachman took over from Mark Kennedy position in Washington.   Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dummer.

Yet, the university has cavalierly redistributed these funds to others, but some projects, such as the only global network for monitoring volatile organic compounds and the only continuous monitoring of these pollutants in the Arctic have come to a complete stop for a lack of the scientific leadership Helmig alone provided.

As knowledge of its existence grew, Boulder A.I.R. began to be asked by local communities such as Longmont and Broomfield to help them monitor their already severely compromised air quality.  They preferred to deal directly with Helmig rather than pay the university’s 60 percent overhead cost.  Helmig actually attempted to carry the university’s water, but the university’s bureaucratic labyrinth was simply impenetrable according to Salazar’s rebuttal.

These cities were particularly concerned by the state’s approval of new fracking mega-pads right in their midst.  These approvals came despite a state law, SB 181, passed in the spring of 2019, requiring an evaluation process that promised protection of public health and the environment as a condition to be met before new wells were approved.  The Polis administration had effectively confounded, if not outright repealed, the law through a series of astonishingly muddle-headed implementation forays.  Indeed, after almost a year and half of being voted out of the legislature, no significant changes in Polis administration policy to protect the pubic and the environment have occurred, with over 3000 wells being approved since his administration took office in January of 2019.

There is also the ongoing disagreement between the climate scientists at CU and NOAA, which has a major climate office in Boulder, and the state’s Air Pollution Control Division, APCD.

I checked, nothing about him at DeSmogblog.     The search here yielded two hits of posts by AbruptSLR where Helvig was in papers.  The one was on the Cold Season Methane and CO2 fluxes in Arctic Tundra. 

Yup,  that would be it.   Hope you did not mind my jaunt down memory lane, catalyzed via the "first time southern hemisphere" phrase in the summation which I do not seem to find "first time" in the NatureCommunications source.  I could go with PhysOrg using "first time southern Atlantic."   This does appear to possibly be the first "in depth" study "at depth" in the Southern hemishphere. 

But for the "Gas hydrate dissociation linked to contemporary ocean warming in the southern hemisphere" original article, not only  a nice article but the references cited  are worth a peek also.  I have skimmed a couple.  Sigh that I have to work so many hours overtime  these days.   Some really nice ones to build knowledge on.   

peace out. 

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: September 03, 2020, 05:14:53 PM »
I did a lot of raised beds, semi-french bio- intensive in urban settings around homeless shelters in the 80's.   Dec 23 1987, picked the last of the collards from long raised bed in the snow and fed 35+ homeless,  Some of the sweetest collards ever.

I moved back  into my  parents empty house and decided to slow down on fix ups for selling the house and put in a 8 by 4 foot raised bed.  North Central Iowa 20 miles south of Minnesota.  The okra is doing nicely,  I gave to charity the 40+ year  water canner 2 years ago, so the okra is going into jars in refrig for pickles.   2 pepper plants, and parsley and mint plants.  Then a jungle of collards and kale for a bed.  The swiss chard germinated poorly, never happened to me before. I have 4 plants from store.  Carrots came in poorly, Planted a second set of peas in between carrots, they are being supported by greens.   Then arrugula and peas, the peas are tresslised on the arugula and the 8 inch high iron fence. And some more peas on the edges of 8 inch fence. Two tomato plants E and W end of rhubarb bed ( I put the rhubarb bed in 1992 at parents.).   2 gallons tomoatos blanched and frozen, see if I can borrow a water canner for salsa.   

 I do miss the bed of asparagus and tomatillos I put in in 1992, but father disliked asparagus and killed it off via not so benign neglect.  They really do well together and the tomatillos will self seed forever.

 Another combo I swear by is  one row sunflowers and one row cucumbers.   Huge garden in 1990 at rural  homeless shelter east of Moorhead MN,  I almost put out too much chicken manure  in between the two, and I forgot to turn off water overnight once on a soaker hose in early July, extremely prolific and perfect textured cukes. At least 3 bushels  into town for the free food pantry back  then.  Sunflower seeds went to the birds.  peace out.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 03, 2020, 04:48:27 PM »
CCP, really. 

The worst thing about COVID is the brain damage it causes in people who aren't infected. It has helped foster the rise of CCP-style authoritarianism globally. It truly is the Chinese virus in that it seemingly turns random Westerners into CCP-style authoritarian automatons. I wonder if a virus has ever previously caused more damage amongst those it didn't infect vs those that it did?

BBR - at least get your metaphors right.  Trotsky ism and ist's would be much more relevant terms for a flavour of Marxism and its supporters that embraces and hopes to introduce worldwide revolutionary change.  The CCP although more flavoured by their own flavour of Trotskyism abandoned revolutionary Trotskyist marxism pretty much when Mao died.  However for established governments that clamp down or rights and increase control over everyday aspects of peoples lives, I would suggest the term facism.  Hannah Arendt is my favourite author to define the term. 

For a trenchant analysis of one of the key factors that enable this control of society the works of Jaques Ellul ( coined the phrase "Think globally and act locally" in 68 I believe) especially The Technological Society - 1964   and/or The Technological Bluff 1990.  If one believes in a growing current global techno-facism -  IMHO it would be proceeding along nicely without COVID-19.

And as far as where the COVID-19 virus originated,  the possibility that it originated in a CAFO (concentrated animal feeding operations) is for me well within the realm of possibility.  Wherever and whenever COVID-19 originated, the overriding questions are what to do about and how to live with.  And if CAFO's are introducing new mutated versions that can cause epi- and pan- demics, what do we do for the "-demics" of the future?   

And if you truly want to go down the path of "viral demented  mental infections"   , using viral as an exponential meme or thought that ravages the economy and freedoms of a nation, I would suggest looking at nuclear weapons and their impact on the usa and their possibly causing global extinction if used.

 Please, can you take it down a notch?     

I did a quick look around to refresh my memory of hydrates off of New Zealand.    Similar depth.  It was tested, written up, and I can't seem to find anymore about it.  So not sure about the Brazilian find being the first in the Southern hemisphere, still seems a good article.

they discovered was direct evidence of widespread gas in the sediment and ocean, and indications of large areas of methane hydrate, ice-like frozen methane, below the seafloor. The team has identified 99 gas flares in a 50 km2 area, venting from the seabed in columns up to 250 m high. This is believed to be the densest concentration of seafloor gas vents known in New Zealand. 3D seismic data show that landslides and faults allow the gas built up in the sediment to be released into the ocean.

and piece trying to show a possibility of Japan and New Zealand getting nat. gas from hydrates from 2013

Also on the forum,869.msg26345.html#msg26345

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 03, 2020, 12:34:42 AM »
Guardian, WaPo, etc etc. have had nice articles in the huge spike in certain states in the usOFA, especially Iowa.   

Finally an update on the backdating of tests.    One section reads   

Nurse practitioner Dana Jones brought the backdating to light. (It later emerged that State Medical Director Dr. Caitlin Pedati and her epidemiologist team had been aware of the problem for weeks.) Two days after Bleeding Heartland, the Associated Press, and the Iowa Falls Times Citizen reported on Jones’ findings, the Iowa Department of Public Health announced that the “glitch” had been fixed.

But outsiders soon spotted more discrepancies in the official numbers after the August 19 “fix.” According to data collected by Dr. HyungSub Shim, a behavioral neurologist in Iowa City, 27,912 old tests went missing from August 19 to August 31.

But outsiders soon spotted more discrepancies in the official numbers after the August 19 “fix.” According to data collected by Dr. HyungSub Shim, a behavioral neurologist in Iowa City, 27,912 old tests went missing from August 19 to August 31.

Scott Foens has been tracking daily statistics since the earliest weeks of the pandemic. He found this week that “There was not one test date from the daily testing total data reported on August 20th that matched the data reported on September 1st for Iowa.” Hundreds of tests have been subtracted from most dates since early June.

After the state began publishing positive and negative results from antigen tests on August 28, Shim observed, “We are still losing tests from previous test dates. Just overnight with the addition of the antigen tests and daily PCR tests, we lost at least 6700 old tests.”

You might guess that the IDPH’s epidemiology team would be working to fix these anomalies. Again, you would be wrong.


Before the backdating problem became public knowledge, Rob Ramaekers, the lead epidemiologist for the IDPH Surveillance Unit, told Jones, “We recognize this is a problem and have been working on logic to handle it.”

In contrast, the department has not indicated that anyone is trying to stop old tests from disappearing. IDPH spokesperson Amy McCoy shared the following information with the news media on September 1.

Some things don't change, not allowing certain press to post questions.   My friend always go cut off by Gov. Branstad, a ruthless bastard raised  8 km (5 miles) north of me, long time governor of Iowa and now the nitwit Ambassador to China.  This was about sending National Guard troops to Honduras.   It was a great trial. ( We occupied his office for a whole day because he steadily refused to talk to us.)   Ms Reynolds also picks and chooses who is press and who isn't. 

I'll update this post after the governor’s news conference, scheduled for 11:00 am on September 2. Reynolds’ staff don’t allow me to participate, but I hope other reporters will ask the governor and/or Dr. Pedati to justify the practice of removing old results for individuals who are retested for COVID-19

And via a smaller town called Iowa Falls   ( almost a pun as the write about falling  test data)

Local COVID testing numbers still being altered months later

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 11:43:41 PM »
The old Cat6 is now Eye of the Storm    on Yale Climate Connections.  I guess IBM couldn't handle "The Weather" Channel with Cat6 associated with it.

Rapidly intensifying storms like Hurricanes Laura, Michael, and Harvey are dangerous because they can catch forecasters and the public off guard.
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 27, 2020

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 27, 2020, 11:15:21 PM »
In re my post to Lessons from Covid-19,3025.msg281693.html#msg281693

Where people in the US state of Iowa who had been tested as negative 1 or more times - if they later tested positive on a subsequent test, it was backdated to their initial test date.

State data showed a new high Thursday morning in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in Johnson County and across the state in a single day.

At 10 a.m. Thursday, Iowa was reporting an additional 1,475 cases of COVID-19 and 18 additional COVID-19-related deaths — including two in Johnson County — since the state's tally at 10 a.m. Wednesday, according to The state was reporting 334 new cases in Johnson County.

Officials report a total of 1,079 people with COVID-19 have died from the disease across the state, including 26 in Johnson County. The deaths reported Thursday were the county's 17th and 18th in the last six weeks. Between June and the first part of July, the county had gone more than seven weeks without reporting a death related to the disease; the first death related to the disease was reported on April 4.

I watched the county next to lightly populated Iowa County very closely in May and June as to whether or not I could take my 89 and 95 y.o parents to their grandsons wedding.   Johnson County home of the Univ of IA and the State Hospital really dropped the numbers down successfully.   I do have to drive mentally challenged individuals the 3 hours to there at times for procedures and surgeries occasionally.

Short answer for the increase, college bars.

The only MD University in Iowa is in Johnson County - Iowa City - so for a region of the state that also includes the City of Davenport in Scott County with 350,000 people the numbers of beds is
Intensive care unit admissions related to the virus returned to levels not seen since April 23 Wednesday morning and remained there 24 hours later: 36 patients were being cared for in the region's intensive care units Thursday morning. The region hit a peak of 39 ICU patients on April 22.

According to the state website, the region has 307 general hospital beds and 64 ICU beds available for area coronavirus patients.

A total of 88 people incarcerated at Coralville's Iowa Medical and Classification Center and seven staff members are currently positive for the disease, a spike that was first disclosed early last week.
  64 ICU beds.   

And later in the article is the uncertainty if the backdating of new infections continues.   

*Given reports that the state's system had been wrongly back-dating COVID-19 test results by months, in some cases, the Press-Citizen is reporting a 14-day positivity rate based on its own tracking and not using the state's figure, which was 16.5% Wednesday. State officials have since claimed that the "glitch" had been fixed.

Appended is the Iowa city papers take from Aug 17 on the backdating of infections.

“It’s one of the worst data errors that could be happening right now,” said Megan Srinivas, an infectious disease physician in Fort Dodge, Iowa. “We are making these policy calls based on completely flawed numbers and that needs to be acknowledged.”

She said the situation means Iowa’s prevalence of infection and the pandemic’s current trajectory is worse than people realize.

An Iowa Department of Public Health official confirmed the glitch in an email to Jones Friday. He said a system-generated date when test results are reported to the state stays the same when an individual later tests positive.

illogic is not logic.   You can not make up statements like the following.

“We recognize this is a problem and have been working on logic to handle it,” wrote Rob Ramaekers, the lead epidemiologist in the department’s surveillance unit. He added: “A similar situation is happening with the percent positive calculation. We have raised the issue and are actively working on fixing it.”

So my basic question is "Is the piss poor computer coding that was in effect on Aug 17 still happening to damp - er smooth - er smother down the new infections while we are in the midst of a gigantic spike?"  The answer for me is, "I have no idea." And if this is happening in Iowa, which was known to have decent state institutions for health, social services, etc compared to say Oklahoma or Mississippi or Alabama, think how skewed, no irretrievably broken it is elsewhere. 

 I have co-workers who have returned from Florida  - gone for the summer to finish up at the local small college who will be working with elderly and or fragile mentally challenged people.    Let's see how that works. 

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: August 27, 2020, 06:38:08 PM »
A short quote from BFV #109 post for        Massive Ice Control on Permafrost Coast Erosion and Sensitivity

2.Regional Setting and Methods The Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, northwest Canada,arelocated within the southern Beaufort Sea area  and aredominated  by  ice-rich permafrost landscapes(Rampton,  1988).  Thisgenerally flat, deltaiclandscape is punctuated by ice cored plateaus and domes acrossthe tundra. Here, we focus on Peninsula Point(Figure 1a), 6 km southwest of Tuktoyaktukandwithin the Pingo Canadian Landmark (a national historic site managed by Parks Canada), itis a representative type-site  for  intrasedimental  massive  ice (Gilbert  et  al.,  2016;  Mackay  &  Dallimore,  1992; Murton,  2009). Compoundingthe dynamic  erosion  processesin  the  area (Murton,  2005), reduced sea-ice (Overeem et al., 2011)and frozen ground seasons (Laberge & Payette, 1995; Liljedahl et al., 2016), increasing storm intensity (Vermaire et al., 2013)and a relative 2.5 mm a-1sea-level rise (Hill et al., 1993)have intensified the degradation of permafrost coasts in the region

Passive seismic surveys, nicer to the larger fauna, the caribou need all the TLC that they can get.   

3.2Mapping subsurface structure of massive iceThis work demonstrates that passive seismic surveys can determine the presence and depth of massive ice within challenging permafrost coast ground conditions.

Just a stellar usage of old data and new right sized technology. 

Just west of Tuktoyatuk.  About 30 - 35 km east of the McKenzie.  Quick background of the scene at

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: August 17, 2020, 08:30:29 PM »
Learned of a new way to destroy good data.

state officials are aware of the problem and working on a fix.

The backdating means that publicly available numbers underestimate the positivity rate for COVID-19 tests conducted over the past two weeks, a key metric for measuring community spread.

Many people tracking Iowa’s COVID-19 numbers have noticed that case counts on the state’s website keep changing, even for dates in March or April. While some delay in recording cases might be understandable, there is no reason it would take weeks or months for data to reach the IDPH. Hospitals and clinics that conduct COVID-19 tests are required to report their positive and negative numbers to the state daily.

    I would like to know why new positive COVID cases were added to dates as far back as March over the last week. This has been a consistent occurrence since I started following the data.

Jones noted that state education and health officials will use 14-day positivity rates for counties “as one of the main factors” in determining whether it is safe for schools to continue to teach students on site.

Ramaekers replied to Jones on the morning of August 14. Full text of his email:

    Thank you for your question. As of this email the x-axis of the positive chart is the date first reported to IDPH. This is a system generated date that never changes once a case is made in our system. So if I tested negative in March and was reported to IDPH, I would have a ‘Reported to IDPH’ date of March. If I was tested again today and came back positive, my ‘Reported to IDPH’ date does not change and now suddenly I appear on the graph in March. We recognize this is a problem and have been working on logic to handle it. We are shifting to using the first positive lab collection date. This change could happen as early as today.

At this writing, nothing has changed.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 30, 2020, 05:44:24 AM »
My 2 goto sites for pollution from Russia (and other sites) would be Bellona and The Barents Observer.

Last week, industry watchdogs in Finland and Sweden reported increased levels of ruthenium 103, cesium 134 and cesium 137 during the month of June, numerous news outlets, including the Associated Press, reported. Individually, Norway recorded levels of iodine 131.

The countries did not accuse Russia directly,

All these isotopes indicate that the release comes from a nuclear-reactor. Iodine-131 has a half-life of 8 days, and given the small amount measured in the north, this isotope could be gone before the radioactive cloud reached the southern parts of Finland and Sweden a week after the first measurements in the north. That be, if the release was somewhere in the Arctic or northwestern Russia and winds were blowing south or southwest.

Neither of the Scandinavian radiation agencies will speculate about the origin.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 01:51:34 AM »
Posting here.  Mom and Dad 89 and 95 y.o.) under lockdown in senior place, rural Iowa.  Moi, I shuttle between 3 residential sites for mentally challenged under lockdowns, meds, overnights.  ...   Mar 13 - long day -  7 am to 7 pm ok, then an individual coughs, again, at risk for aspiration pneumo. I chide negelient staff, slow, give meds.  9 pm, more meds, very shallow breathing.  bad colour, I got 82 for pO2.  Nurse, 911, I follow ambulance  later to hospital, xrays, strep, influ neg.  She is released, I amdone at 2 am.  3 days later she is admitted.  Intubated.  NO NEW News.  3 days  later I go into do meds.  I don mask and ask how she is.  I state the mask is in case I am asymptomatic and carrying. There is really no one else to do meds.  I get email, she is negative, mask off.  She came back a few days later , did not improve, back in.  60 yr old mentally challenged.  Does not look good. I have seen 4 others die of aspiration pneumo since 1991 taking care of the mentally challenged.  So, I look back at all the years I and teams did right in managing dysphagias, cerebellar ataxias, ...   

    Meanwhile dad is getting cabin fever immensely.  I am trying to finesse getting the keys away from him for his car.  He calls up and want to come up,  get a bottle of wine and 1/2 gallon milk (3 oz wine at bedtime with mom) and have me drive him back and then take the car.   I know he will get tossed out of lockdown if he does that.  I say stay put, I will be by toningh.  I get on my bicycle.
   Wicked head wind, 15 miles - 25 km down to him, buy wine and milk and meet him and mom at the door.  Mission accomplished. 

    You just do what you can. when you can; seize the moment when needed.   I do have a covenant via L'Arche of a life dedicated to the mentally challenged. So I will just continue to walk 2 or 4 or 8 blocks to various work sites for my vocation. 

  Not too crazy yet in rural north central Iowa. South Dakota is being idiotic with no restrictions.   Minnesota 40 km north is much more locked down.  Hopefully they can get some crops in around here.    I just might hire somebody to put on new shingles on house, dad was delaying.  Peace out. 

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: March 04, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »
I did look to see if Dr. Tim Garrett had posted anything lately about this, one tweet. He sees a minimal effect in his tweet.   He is primarily looking at aerosols and physics of clouds.   

  Dated but a good
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), P.O. Box 8100 Dep, N-0032 Oslo, NorwayCitation: AMAP / Quinn et al., 2008. The Impact of Short-Lived Pollutants on Arctic Climate.  AMAP Technical Report No. 1 (2008), Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway.(available as an electronic document from Authors: P.K. Quinn1, T.S. Bates1, E. Baum2, T. Bond3, J.F. Burkhart4, A.M. Fiore5, M. Flanner6, T.J. Garrett7, D. Koch8, J. McConnell9, D. Shindell8, and A. Stohl4

Nice graphics

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: February 28, 2020, 04:19:35 AM »
Not so much a post but a place marker to redirect any chatter about the effect of  the pandemic on a drop in aerosols via less cruises, shipping (nasty bunker fuel) and also reduced air transport.  And even possibly a dip in coal burning for smelting and electrical generation due to possible economic contraction.   

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: February 22, 2020, 09:28:31 PM »
I skimmed the article to see if it mentions (if memory recalls correctly) the fact that Boston is also sinking.  I did not see.  Boston Globe article Jan 5 2018 (teaser - only a couple paragraphs and unable to cut and paste) starts out with "With its gradually sinking low lying lands"  And nothing about Dorchestor next door with the less rich mostly housing and stores. 

The key word "fighting" should be  supplanted by "losing" as the lowereing land an rising sea is supplanting Dorchestor and Boston "faster than expected."

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: February 04, 2020, 10:10:56 PM »
Primary article
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw

However, in areas with excess ground ice, surface subsidence called thermokarst can occur during permafrost  degradation.  Abrupt  thaw  processes  such  as  thermo-karst have long been recognized as influential but are complex and understudied,  and  thus  are  insufficiently  represented  in  coupled  models14. While gradual thaw slowly affects soil by centimetres over decades, abrupt thaw can affect many metres of permafrost soil in periods of days to several years15.

Data synthesis and first-order models  ...     Here, we describe the numerical, inventory models of initial thaw and ecosystem recovery and present details of the first-order estimates of abrupt thaw carbon release. The goal of our study was to compare the magnitude of emissions from abrupt thaw relative to gradual thaw under similar model  conditions.  To  achieve  this,  we  developed  a  simple,  unified  framework for exploring ecosystem carbon balance across a diverse set  of  abrupt  thaw  processes.  Our  first-order  inventory  method  is  similar  to  initial  assessments  of  land-use  carbon  emissions21,  and  was  used  to  simulate  changes  in  ecosystem  carbon  balance  during  the  initial  abrupt  thaw  stage,  as  well  as  longer-term  ecosystem  recovery (Fig. 1)

Several of their graphs extend from 1900 to 2300 a.d. with Y as  Net radiative forcing (W m2)   

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 16, 2020, 03:50:21 PM »
RE Oktibbeha County Lake Dam failure.  Been awhile since camping in MS, I was further south normally, Desoto Natl Forest.  That dam might actually drain into the Pearl River.  Not easy for me to figure out the drainage from that dam. 

That dam was in hideous shape in 2016
County Engineer Clyde Pritchard told supervisors Monday.

Another major failure could take a portion of County Lake Road along with it, Pritchard said.

"The dam's in bad shape," he told supervisors as he noted other deficiencies could be discovered along the path. "The next (failure) might not be nice enough to fail at the guardrail. (A failure that takes the road), that's going to be a safety hazard. It might give us a bit of a warning - a crack or pavement settling - but then it might just occur over night."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 07:34:13 PM »
The beluga trebuchet lets me know that it is <<sarc>>  please move on.  SimonF92 I really did enjoy your sarcasm.  A team of narwhals assist  to load the trebuchets buckets appeared to me mentally and I spit some of the coffee in my mouth.. 

In regard to the Guardian article of the Amazon tipping point.  I have gotten behind  in this thread, busy and one needs to delve and think deeply on this thread. 

From the author cited for her report on papers.  Oct 31

She cites the two primary papers she utilized and critiques the Bolsanaro government regime. 

Her "PIEE" chart is here (bad pun)

Her 7 page review that the Guardian cited is here

As always, with admiration to the posts here. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:35:12 PM »
For the Timothy McGeehan Wieslaw Maslowski
Evaluation and control mechanisms of volume and freshwater export through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic ice‐ocean model

Nice Find.  Here is a link to a pdf final copy.  I have too many pre-print papers myself that I have not updated on my computer

Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: September 02, 2019, 01:53:42 AM »
Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’ s early transformation through land use

Here, we present a global assessment of archaeological expert knowledge on land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE, showing that existing global reconstructions underestimate the impact of early human land use on Earth’s current ecology.

Have not read yet.  To find the authors is a bit of a slog.  The ArchaeoGLOBE Project was  listed via 2 capital letters for each individual.  sleuthed.     has the authors. 

2 blogs about the article
“There are archaeologists working all over the world, but they aggregate data differently, and it can be difficult to find larger patterns,” said co-author Ben Marwick, an associate professor of anthropology at the UW. “By asking archaeologists a series of questions rather than combining datasets, we’ve created a brilliant workaround — essentially, what were people doing, and how much, in different parts of the world?”
The scholars pooled extensive datasets summarizing decades of archaeological research. Nicole Boivin, Director of the Department of Archaeology at the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History and a lead author on the study, notes that "archaeologists possess critical datasets for assessing long-term human impacts to the natural world, but these remain largely untapped in terms of global-scale assessments".

I have spent more hours than I can quantify opens sourcing books at Distributed Proofreaders and Distributed Proofreaders Canada.  And I strongly believe copyright got out out of control and should not have such a long time. 

I also strongly believe that getting access to scientific papers, many prepared with tax dollars is necessary.

But this - NO.   An author wrote it and it should be bought or borrowed.  I have in past bought books I liked, read and given to the Winnipeg Library.  US, they have interlibrary loans, free, at least they did.  I can get some books free via my tiny Iowa library onto my kobo.  Explore your options. 

It looks like a lovely book.  If you feel I am wrong in my beliefs on this particular book, well I suggest binding arbitration, with the author. 

I feel no guilt with several hundred scientific articles via "the hub".  But for that book at this time, no.   

Via his web site (

*Washam, P., K. Nicholls, A. Muenchow, and L. Padman: "Summer surface melt thins Petermann Gletscher ice shelf by enhancing channelized basal melt," J. Glac., doi:10.1017/jog.2019.43, 2019.

*Washam, P., A. Muenchow, and K. Nicholls: "A decade of ocean changes impacting the ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, Greenland," J. Phys. Oceanogr., 48, 2477-2493, 2018.

*Ryan, P. and A. Muenchow: "Sea ice draft observations in Nares Strait from 2003 to 2012," J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 122, doi:10.1002/2016JC011966, 2017.

.pdf Muenchow, A., L. Padman, *P. Washam, and K. Nicholls: "The ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, North Greenland, and its connection to the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans," Oceanography, 29 (4), 89-95, 2016.

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: August 29, 2019, 05:47:34 PM »
A nice little read about the plundering of forests in Cambodia.

In one of his more daring exploits, Leng disguised himself as a chef working at logging camps to infiltrate the network of notorious logging baron, Try Pheap, an adviser to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.

It has a slider for 2009 versus 2019 and also a map showing what geographic areas are being plundered via which nations. 

I have not watched the "101 East" video the web page springs from.   Hopefully it will also discuss the trafficking in animal species that would probably occur during forest raping.  Sending lumber out of a country via container shipping, something I had never considered before, but for more rare or exotic lumber, probably worth the cost. 

peace out,

Minor quibble, actually sea level change,  Mitrovica et al.  But yes, not factoring in those things is too facile a model. 

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 17, 2019, 05:06:13 AM »
Edit, mea culpa, this post is in reference to the above post #997.  I apologize.  original post follows.

I delayed posting about this paper.  I printed it out prior, been busy.  I had dug up a little about Evgeny Chuvilin in the previous paper of NaCl effects on hydrates and he appears to have written on several decent papers, he did some of the research with the Japanese team investigating hydrates off the coast of Japan. 

Understanding the Permafrost–Hydrate System and Associated Methane Releases in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf Natalia Shakhova 1,2,*, Igor Semiletov 1,3,4,5 and Evgeny Chuvilin

It is a very forceful paper in some ways, they raise questions about sampling methods of a couple papers and the early dismissal of outliers in another paper.  In the end,

To further improve estimates of CH 4 emissions from the ESAS, multi-level and multi-seasonal
investigations should be performed, aimed at quantifying different components of annual emissions
and defining the factors controlling them.

A new challenge is the unknown scale of the ice scouring mechanism
of CH 4 release; this mechanism could unroof an ascending gas front in the upper sediment layers,
opening gas-migration pathways for underlying gas [22]. The relative importance of the various flux
components should also be independently evaluated by detailed observations of atmospheric mixing
ratios throughout the year. In this regard, establishing a monitoring network (including non-coastal
observatories, satellites, unmanned aircraft, helicopter surveys, and summer cruises) over the entire
area of the ESAS is of critical importance.

Of course the devil is in the details of getting new long term research

It is one of several papers in a special issue.

Guest Editor
Dr. Evgeny Chuvilin

Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russia
Website | E-Mail
Interests: permafrost; gas hydrate; gas in permafrost; freezing process; hydrate formation; unfrozen water; properties of frozen sediments; experimental modeling; methane emission

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: April 29, 2019, 02:00:29 AM »
Research Reactor shut down after 50 years.

By Bellona’s estimates, final storage for the waste from the Kjeller reactor, as well as from the Halden research reactor, which was shut down last year, could cost more than $1.7 billion – well beyond what the IFE has budgeted to safely store its radioactive legacy. It is therefore thought that the state will have to bear the brunt of the expenses.

“The price for getting rid of old sins is high,” said Hauge. But Norway must pay the cost, plain and simple.”

Things do change  The European Spallation Source had <<A bright future for the JEEP II- research-reactor>> on Jan 25, 2018

Probably like the CANDU's; with the JEEP's  heavy water design you can use the neutron flux fo5 medical isotopes, etc. etc.  But they get old, no mention of tritium leaks that plague aging CANDU's.  And we all know what neutrons do to metal after 50 years. 

The EU LINAC hopefully will be up and running in 2023 for a much more rational source of neutrons.

I ran the doi       DOI: 10.1126/science.364.6438.322     not posted elsewhere    A search of ozone  and also stratopshere and ozone  no real hits, so
    Eli Kintisch
Science  26 Apr 2019:
Vol. 364, Issue 6438, pp. 322-325
DOI: 10.1126/science.364.6438.322

A new NASA mission will probe threats to the ozone layer over the United States.

Nothing proved, but should be a good study (that could have been done years ago if we did not spend so much on the militatry)


I note that they give a dermatologist a paragraph but none to a zooologist or botanist about effects on the other 99.9+ % of species on the planet.

[Anderson notes he has never used the phrase “alarming reductions,” and he says the satellite data used in the 2013 paper are not sensitive or detailed enough to reveal the relevant mechanisms. But he is worried about the future. “It will be too late,” he fears, if action is delayed until “we actually have measurable decreases in ozone [and] increases in UV radiation [over midlatitudes].” And global warming could speed any losses. Warming has caused moisture in both the lower and upper atmosphere to increase, a trend expected to intensify, and it could mean more powerful thunderstorms pumping that moisture into the stratosphere. In addition, research has shown that although the dominant warming gases, carbon dioxide and methane, warm the lower atmosphere, in the stratosphere they radiate solar energy to space, cooling that part of the sky—which could also favor ozone destruction. The data collected by the DCOTSS project should help determine whether that scenario is already occurring./quote]


Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: March 22, 2019, 07:38:50 PM »
Atlantification of the marine ecosystem in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Climate warming is rapidly altering the physical marine environment in fjords on the west coast of Svalbard towards a more temperate state. Reductions in sea ice cover and increased ocean temperatures are evident, resulting in changes of ice-associated and pelagic ecosystems.

The changes we observe in Svalbard are happening fast: the fauna in the west coast fjords is now less characteristic of the High Arctic, but more and more resembles the ecosystems along the Norwegian coast, with food webs partly composed of Atlantic species.

An upcoming book will be out in April 2019, probably quite expensive.  132,23 EUR
“The Ecosystem of Kongsfjorden, Svalbard” (eds. Hop H, Wiencke C), Advances in Polar Ecology, Springer Verlag, publication date 27 April 2019.          "This book will form a baseline for future work. " 

While not coming to conclusions - a nice little article.  And a possible decent web site to visit now and then to see what is up around the Bering.  Appears to be good translations into several languages. 

I do not feel I am necroposting, Svalbard is not going to move.  I suppose I could have posted to "Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere".     

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: March 17, 2019, 06:23:00 PM »
Cooper - Brownsville.    The Ft. Calhoun Nebraska  plant is  a separate bad piece of engineering engineering but less prone to flooding. 

For Cooper
Quite the slog to confirm my memory  - Elevated fuel pool  GE  Mark 4  Mark 1 type pool     ###excessive caution from browsers on nirs ssl

Old but good from Alvarez

Over  the  past  30  years,  there  have  been  at 
least  66  incidents  at  U.S.  reactors  in  which  there  was 
a significant loss of spent fuel water.

UCS Lochbauhm (spelling?) had a post on fuel pools a bit ago also at AllThingsNuclear

I do not know if Cooper Nuclear power moved and improved their diesel generators and batteries since the last flood for electrical power and back up for fuel pools.   

We won't agree on all things, but I think we might have a consensus that  an aggressive lowering of the amounts of spent fuel to dry casking. 

This particular reactor is ancient, especially remembering neutron embrittlement, and has floods on an increasing frequency and possibly severity. And an overhead fuel pool.   I think many of us would prioritize this particular plant for an early retirement.   

Sadly, someday the wrong dam upstream somewhere in the world will collapse dramatically and and we will be able to experience the exact nature of a total failure of a fuel pool.  I keep remembering the anecdotes from Los
Alamos of chemists joking about physicists starting uranium fires  with metal shovels.  If ignited, perish the thought.   

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 21, 2019, 05:41:52 PM »
Above, yea.  Quick look at how it PFA's "work" in vitro,  nothing worthwhile via adding cytochrome p-450 ( liver enzyme) to search, I am starting with

Also - places becoming less livable - maybe the AAAS itself.

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