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Messages - DrTskoul

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 31, 2019, 06:46:52 PM »
I guess the fat lady has a few more notes...

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:42:45 AM »
Marshal plan to increase the extraction of materials needed for the production of the equipment, marshal plan for the mobilization of labor at below competitive rates to keep it financially sustainable, a marshal plan to obtain the right of way in any locality that is needed regardless local opposition. Requires a determination akin to aliens attacking imminently...

3
Another 4 years and it will be game over ....

4
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:34:22 PM »
World’s largest permafrost river dries to a record low

Quote
Lena River fleet cannot sail after abnormal heat causes 2.5 metre water level drop.



Quote
The current water level means critical delays in the summer ritual delivering vital supplies to Arctic settlements in Yakutia, Russia’s biggest region.

Most of its remote corners are only accessible via water, with the lives of thousands of people depending on this traffic flow - which has been halted for weeks due to the low level of the longest river flowing entirely within Russia.

In regional capital Yakutsk the water dropped so suddenly that hundreds of cargo ships and smaller boats were left stranded in the sand.

Elsewhere along the river fishermen complained about an extremely low catch, saying that for days they were coming back home with empty buckets.

‘However many times I tried fishing with spinning and net, I caught nothing. I am now having to buy fish at shops, and many of us anglers fear that fish will die out in such shallow water’, bemoaned local fishermen Alexander Chigmarev.


5
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 26, 2019, 05:48:04 PM »
Next at a coast near you...

Trump Reportedly Discussed Nuking Hurricanes Headed To The United States

Quote
Axios reported Sunday that President Donald Trump suggested “multiple times” that Homeland and national security officials explore using nuclear bombs to stop hurricanes from striking the United States.

During one hurricane briefing at the White House, Trump responded: “I got it. Why don’t we nuke them?” according to an unnamed source who was present, Axios reported. “We drop a bomb inside the eye of the hurricane and it disrupts it. Why can’t we do that?”


6
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 26, 2019, 05:42:26 PM »
The propaganda is taking hold

ORWELLIAN BRAZIL: ‘THERE IS NO FIRE’

Quote
An airplane pilot who declined to give his name accused space agency scientists in the United States of releasing doctored satellite photos of the Amazon.

“There is so much sensationalism. The images of Nasa — that show fire — are manipulated,” the pilot said. “I have been flying since Monday and have not seen anything.”

7
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 24, 2019, 03:59:13 PM »
Every year there about 40 gigatons of CO2 emitted.

8
The scientific method is the same regardless the phenomena. However it might be too late to define baseline and departure from baseline for a lot of ecosystems as they are changing rapidly.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 04:46:34 PM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect


Don't think its on topic but here you go: I do not think that there is a mode of locomotion today that will not use _any_ FF in all its lifetime.... Even with your two feet... So the bar is placed _quite_ high...

10
The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: August 23, 2019, 03:46:50 PM »
World without US and Canada has already peaked....

11
Unfortunately the changes are faster than we can study them...

12
Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: August 23, 2019, 03:42:44 PM »
Yet, more acres have been burned in Siberia than in the Amazon. I understand the news cycle and the images but forest fires are a worldwide scourge....

However most Amazon fires are due to land clearing by farmers...

It is a sad state of affairs...

13
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 23, 2019, 03:25:49 PM »
Not only that... the flow of rivers depend on the sea level..the consequences indeed cascade inwards...

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 23, 2019, 03:24:37 PM »
The biggest issue that I have is that there is no way to "de-risk" the scale-up other than global transport models that are not adequately quantitative there is no "mini earth system" physical model to understand what will happen. There is about 100% chance of an unexpected negative consequence. What they will focus is to try and convince us that the consequence is going to be less than doing nothing....

15
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 23, 2019, 01:28:18 PM »
'100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps

Quote
In a new paper published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers combined storm surge, sea level rise, and the predicted increased occurrence and strength in tropical storms and hurricanes to create a map of flood hazard possibility along the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Coastlines at northern latitudes, like those in New England, will face higher flood levels primarily because of sea level rise. Those in more southern latitudes, especially along the Gulf of Mexico, will face higher flood levels because of both sea level rise and increasing storms into the late 21st century.

More information: Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z

16
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 23, 2019, 01:19:25 AM »
Less CO2 emissions per unit of consumption however is...

17
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 22, 2019, 01:06:10 PM »
Yes, do it for all, i agree! This is why i'm in favor of a $150 (+15%/year) carbon tax transferred directly into subsidies for renewables. This is how you accelerate the energy transition.

It has to be transferred back to the people....otherwise it is a very regressive tax. Poor and middle class spend higher percentage of their income to energy use.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 06:36:31 PM »
I am just saying...I'd rather fight it on the only habitable planet of the solar system. Some people have seen too much sci-fi....turning Mars habitable will take several hundred to a thousand years with more advanced tech than today

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 06:26:28 PM »
To people that think space is the answer, good luck with that!!

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 21, 2019, 05:48:49 PM »
My new profile picture is an old one from Facebook that seems suitable for this forum. Nobody ever got it on Facebook... So I wonder... Can YOU see it?  :o

Where is the damn ice....

21
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 21, 2019, 05:40:12 PM »
Global Warming: How Fast?

Interesting graphs by Tamino.





Quote
So what can we say about Earth’s warming rate right now? Based on the smoothed model, I’d say it’s almost surely between 1.66 and 2.67 deg.C/century. The average rate from 1970 to now was between 1.70 and 1.95 deg.C/century. Note that the values from the straight-line model are well within the uncertainty range of the smoothed model, so we don’t have statistically significant evidence of any recent change in the warming rate since 1970. It’s certainly possible, we just don’t have solid evidence for it.
My opinion: the present warming rate is about 2.23 deg.C/century, but could be as low as 1.66 or 2.67. It might be substantially higher than its average-since-1970 value of 1.83, but then again it might not.

My other opinion: given that the uncertainty is so large, we should at least be prepared for the possibility that right now, Earth is warming substantially faster than it has for the last 50 years. If that’s true, it’s a matter of serious concern.

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 17, 2019, 12:59:02 AM »
Was it already squiggly back then?  ::)

A flat one is usually a problem...

23
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 17, 2019, 12:05:04 AM »
True dat

24
True ,  thanks!

25
Circles upper side of gif

26
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 16, 2019, 05:27:10 PM »

I think your poor English skills could be to blame for the obvious dissonance between our perspectives here, which is not your fault, but as I have said, there is no point in continuing this conversation.

Those poor English skills have gotten me several thousand citations on my journal articles written in English. So who cares. Is the skill in a foreign language a key descriptor of thought and intelligence ? Again you cannot but go back to personal attacks... thank you for the display of your colors :)

And I am writing on my phone not caring correcting every typo...Toodles 

27
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 16, 2019, 01:41:11 AM »
You said about Mediterranean getting wetter. And I am telling you no, regardless the precipitation totals. Everybody understands what wetter climate or drier climate is ... as far as soil and  plants care it is not wet...

28
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 16, 2019, 01:30:00 AM »
Whoever lives by the map dies by the map. Departure from normal for a dry places means diddly squat...have you been in greece ? ... climate has been getting drier with sudden downpours that run to the sea...that might give you higher precipitation totals... but mean nothing for the state of the land

29
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:59:56 PM »
Me too

30
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:38:43 PM »
As far as I can telll (reverse-engineered from the member list):
0 posts - NewMembers
Up to 100 posts - Open water
Up to 500 posts - Frazil ice
Up to 1000 posts - Grease ice
Up to 2500 posts - Nilas
Up to 5000 posts - Young ice
Up to 10000 posts - First-year ice
Over 10000 posts - Multi-year ice

Over 25000 ice sheet

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 15, 2019, 02:01:01 PM »
Bill Gates' addiction to technological solutions is becoming a menace.
With Trump in charge and a gopher as the new boss of NASA one must doubt that good sense will prevail.

Some of you may remember that the Russkies tried the big mirror in the sky a few years back.
But their idea was the opposite - to light up and warm up Siberia in winter.
The big mirror failed to unfurl, many in the world breathed a sigh of relief.

Like it needs more warming...

Some people pray to the altar of technology thinking it has no limits. We have marveled at the evolution  of electronics and the  revolution  it brought to other fields of science, and we think we are limitless in all fields. However nature has other ideas... 

32
Policy and solutions / Re: A reference personal carbon budget
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:04:28 PM »
Yes they do Terry.
I have been a (MSC) salmon fishcutter and if I spotted a dirty whitish blob somewhere in the fish (after it was smoked), the whole fish was thrown away.
I wonder if every fishmonger shares your integrity?


The one food that I miss here in Canada is Smoked Salmon the way the Pacific Coast Natives prepared it.
Tough as shoe leather, dry as a bone & more flavorful that can be imagined. They have a product here that they refer to as Smoked Salmon that's sometimes sold in hand painted cedar boxes. Best packaging for a food product imaginable!
But it's soft, damp and not all that tasty. The closest I can find locally is something sold as "Candied Salmon" - it's close but it's got a long ways to go.


The best Smoked Salmon used to be sold from the back of pick up trucks along 1 & 101 up and down the west coast.
Terry

Tough, and dry, best salmon jerky...reminds me my travels to BC and Olympic National Park

33
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: August 15, 2019, 12:08:10 PM »
Amid drought, plants in Chennai guzzle 21 million liters of groundwater per day



Quote
Drought-prone Tamil Nadu has the highest number of licensed packaged drinking water and carbonated beverages units in the country. These water-guzzling plants operating in and around Chennai draw at least 21 million litres of water every day. For the record, water-starved Tamil Nadu has 40 percent of the total ‘over-exploited’ groundwater resource locations in India.

Data released by the Union ministry of Jal Shakti in Lok Sabha last week revealed that TN has 3,299 licensed mineral water, packaged drinking water and carbonated beverage units and bottling plants, which is 18 percent of the total such units running in the country.


34
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 15, 2019, 02:48:15 AM »
New zealanders are rather independent and stubborn folk.... will see where elites go to when the rest figure it out...

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:16:28 AM »
2019, still hangs on... let's see how much steam is left...

36
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:13:09 AM »
Quote
a thin sheet of smooth, level ice less than 10 centimeters (4 inches) thick; appear darkest when thin.

It's years since I've been that...

37
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:09:55 PM »
It is easy for the other side to be always wrong :)

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 14, 2019, 12:45:29 AM »
Is there a better thread for the RCP. IPCC, expected max temperature rise etc ? This thread is for DAC...

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 13, 2019, 10:29:34 PM »
It includes glaciers...

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 10:28:22 PM »
According to research by the dutch KNMI and the university of Exeter (published in Nature Climate Change), reduced sea ice extent does not lead to cold continents at moderate latitudes, the so called warm arctic cold continents theory or WACC. Instead it is a fluctuation in atmosferic circulation wich causes simultaneously the decrease in sea ice and cold waves at lower latitudes (Northern America).

Good find. Important article. It has been discussed a little here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg221383.html#msg221383

One less chicken one more egg??

41
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:28:46 PM »
Like if you are right you are going to get the Nobel prize or sth...

42
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 13, 2019, 01:32:44 PM »
For Greeks political argument is like argument for ones favorite team of soccer. Lots of word fight and loud arguments but in the end most is all ok. The trick is not to take it way too personally..especially over the damn internet..

43
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 13, 2019, 03:53:36 AM »
Dont worry... future employers will use the existence of universal income as an excuse to pay less... the same way they use tips in the services industry to pay less...

44
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 13, 2019, 03:25:27 AM »
Terry

They came through my neighborhood about 4/5 yrs ago and replaced all the low pressure lines in the street and the lines running up to the house meters.  I might think that this was a state wide effort knowing the economics of the township in which I live, still, I'm guessing here.

I see we have some shared history, I've a master's degree in "street"  mostly NYC downtown east side, alphabet city, dark days.  Got out in 87 just before the A-Train came into town...pure luck.

I do not have, nor could I guess at a reasonable response to our current FF problem only that I might think that we should STOP digging the crap up and let the cards fall will they will.
I would prefer a controlled decent into chaos rather than let's just set the planet on fire.

bligh

Either way it will not be very controlled...

45
Indecisive, inactive, unintelligent.... the governments of today

46
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 03:03:30 AM »
They are not that precious

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:56:42 AM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

A remnant of the last ice age. It will not survive to see the next.


Next ?

48
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:55:41 AM »
It is dark and disturbing because it's mostly true. We spend gazillions on new nuclear weapons, sending Teslas in space, buying crap we dont need, instead of feeding the starved masses...


49
I am so fucking tired of this asinine group of turds that "govern" us...

50
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 13, 2019, 12:24:38 AM »
Wait for it... desalinated sea water with solar PV !!! There fixed it for ya /sarc

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