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Messages - Iain

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Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: March 09, 2020, 05:10:24 AM »
I think this is a persuasion game rather than by force

If the populus is aware of climate change and it's consequences than they will accept measures such as taxing carbon and supporting alternatives

If not they will just vote for the other party.

I also think the extinction of humans, even if another big rock hits the planet, is extremely unlikely. We have too many advantages - opposable thumb, tools, complex speech, writing, accumulated knowledge...

"Study finds quarter of climate change tweets from bots"

Mostly in denial:

"The finding showed 25% of tweets on climate change were likely posted by bots. Most of those tweets centred on denials of global warming or rejections of climate science."

I think I experienced this

I was posting in a pro Nuclear anti renewable forum about large EV batteries (several days worth of normal commuting) absorbing excess renewable energy production.

The responses were about EV batteries supporting the grid, not my point.

Also, there were posters making the same grammatical and spelling errors as the author of the blog, I suspected it was the same person replying in support of his own article.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:39:25 PM »
Agreed. Consumers have enormous power.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 20, 2020, 10:30:06 AM »
@Nanning. No problem, no offence taken and none intended.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 19, 2020, 09:04:02 PM »
@ Nanning, all, me as well.

Even if you live the most frugal life – food, shelter, clothing only-everything consumed has an affect on the planet and all who live there.

That’s a fundamental, there is no getting away from it.

Not a criticism, but consider – your strapline says “0Kg CO2” If I understand correctly you are claiming you have 0 kg CO2 emissions, I say that can’t be true , even with frugal consumption it has to be a number > 0

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 17, 2020, 09:16:33 PM »
- Is it long term sustainable?
- Is the living nature dispensable?
- Do the opinions of the people who live there matter?

I Expect the lithium to be recycled many times over, so yes
The mining will not be forever, nature/ farming will return
Yes, but we have to look at the bigger picture, the greater need.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 11, 2020, 10:47:50 PM »
The gridwatch figures don't include actuals for smaller farm turbines, typ 11-20 kW, only an estimate.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 04, 2020, 08:52:08 PM »
Ah, I should explain that a "truck", aka lorry, Heavy Goods Vehicle, in the UK is typically 7.5 to 40 Tonnes laden.

I don't mean a pickup truck

They have a high utilisation, so for those, I foresee replaceable battery packs loaded on by forklift at each loading / dropoff depot, or hydrogen, as an energy store.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January 2020)
« on: February 03, 2020, 07:31:50 PM »
From The PIOMAS Summer trend line, it's 13 years to go to a September BOE, though as there are excursions above and below the trendline, it's more likely to be sooner than 13y

Could be 8 years with an outlier such as in 2012.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:09:37 AM »
Following on from the above

Councils can now charge a tax on commercial building owners for car parking spaces., I would urge them to discount those which have EV charging points. Cars are static most of the working day

Councils also set business rates, I would urge them to apply a higher tax on those with NO solar fitted, where it would be practical to do so.

Cooling takes more energy than heating (all those PCs running at a few 100s of Watts each) so the solar can run EVs plus cooling in the summer, just the EVs in the winter.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:01:03 AM »
In the UK a few years back a generous Feed in Tarriff was introduced for solar.

The installation owner (e.g owner of a domestic house) got 43p/kWh for generating and was still paid the FIT even if the electricity was used within the dwelling. The deal was fixed (plus inflation) for 20 years. At that time the installation was expensive.

Extremely generous, electricity is c. 16p to buy in now


The built in degression mechanism meant the FIT rate dropped rapidly for new installations as more solar was installed. The generous rate was meant only to kick start the industry, which it did. Soon the FIT rate was below the production rate, c. 4p/kwh (it depends on the efficiency rating of the house, retrofit/newbuild etc.)

The above worked well

Sounds like Crandles in Reply #4606 is on a similar generous deal.

Renters – the landlord (govt council or private) collects the FIT, the occupant gets some free leccy. Both benefit.

Mine earns no FITs, it’s a DIY install to offset elec use. I have a diverter which has a current clamp on the meter tail, if I’m producing a surplus it diverts to heat the hot water cylinder.

A good inflation free investment.

NB in the UK the FIT is a guaranteed tariff paid, it’s not a subsidy. “Subsidy” is a pejorative term, used by those opposed to renewables.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 21, 2020, 01:13:56 AM »
In the UK generous feed in tariffs were paid to a range of renewable sources - Solar, wind, biogas.....

There was a built in degression mechanism, such that the technology being most rapidly taken up saw cuts to it's tariff soonest and deepest.

Those were the "winners" - solar and wind. Mine are diy install for offset and diversion to HWC only, I earn no tariff.

Still a great inflation proof investment.

We need the same for storage - a tariff for supplying at peak demand. It's up to the market how it's done.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 20, 2020, 11:50:33 PM »
Is there a thread for subsea turbines?

Had a search, but only "cable" hits for Subsea and lots of hits for turbines.

Cormat looks promising:

No net torque
Easy to fabricate
Size limited only by water depth
Easy to tow into place and ballast down
PTime of peak flow varies along coastline
Subsea cables up estuaries to substations

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 19, 2020, 02:37:49 PM »
There are alternatives if Lithium, Cobalt, etc. become harder to obtain.

Sodium Ion looks promising.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 15, 2020, 03:56:08 PM »
Neil, All

"What I challenge is that anyone has a workable plan which does not use all CO2 neutral sources."

Did you mean

"What I challenge is that anyone has a workable plan which uses only CO2 neutral sources."

I believe the rapid transition to renewables it is do-able - see my post #4499, last one on P90

I didn't get any criticism of it, happy to hear any, you won't hurt my feelings : )

Is there a flaw in that thinking which makes you so pessimistic?

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 14, 2020, 10:40:58 AM »
Griff, Thanks for the graphs

Neil makes an important point

"the smallest Tesla batteries are often more than twice the size of standard range for older models"

So will cycle fewer times per 100 miles

Looks like the trend is toward bigger batteries anyway, myself I was thinking of a used Outlander Plug in hybrid, but with the smaller battery it may be cycled to death by the previous owner

I have asked and got the battery management data from a couple of dealers, so it is possible to find out how many cycles it has had.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 13, 2020, 11:26:59 PM »
Battery life

I searched the forum on "degradation", but got no hits

Has anyone come across real world data on battery degradation?
I remember seeing a google group where owners on Outlanders were posting the retention figure vs age and mileage. Can't find it again.

Main factors are number of cycles and depth of discharge, so large battery capacity EVs on daily 10% depth of discharge will last for 10,000 cycles +

Smaller batteries, e.g. the Mitsu Outlander may have to be discharged to c. 50% (or the max discharge allowed by Mitsu) then recharged 2x per day.

Really keen to see how they are holding up after 5+ years

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 13, 2020, 11:11:17 PM »
Apologies to Neil and Nanning, this is a cross post, but I think EVs have an important role in the transition to renewables not already discussed:

Free Energy Storage (UK case)

Replacing cars with batteries and Lorries with hydrogen (or forklifting in a charged battery bank)would require c. 3x present electricity production

25 Million (one per household) Nissan Leafs at 56 kWh, that’s 14 x10^12

Each does 1/10th max range per daily commute.

14 Terawatt Hours stored, Average daily UK production in 2018 was 0.91 TWh

So that’s 1/3 Gimmie it NOW demand as is the present case; 1/3 anytime this week is fine demand and 1/3 sometime between the two, as the trucks keep rolling 24/7

That makes managing intermittency so much easier, up renewables x6 (c. 50% electricity is renewable at present) the cars / hydrogen electrolysers absorb any additional over and above the GimmieitNOW demand, so the grid side storage only has to cover the rare periods of shortfall on the GimmieitNOW demand side.

NB this is not car to grid, just cars absorb the surplus for now.

The grid can’t take all this from big centralised stations, so a more dispersed arrangement would suit better. Local – Factory / Office roof solar to static cars in carpark over 8 hrs of daylight. Solar runs aircon and cars in the summer, just the cars in the winter. The Wind turbine in the carpark (industrial areas) produces more in winter than summer.


Tax office / factory roofs (E, W, S) which have no solar, tax business electricity, tax office parking spaces which have no charging point, tax ICE cars and trucks
Give tax breaks on their opposite numbers.

Nuclear is limited to summer valley baseload, the high capital cost and low running cost means it must run 24/7/365, so it would be v. expensive to try to cover winter peak with stations which would be idle in Spring, Summer and Autumn. It also does not suit storage, if the stations were sufficient for Spring / Autumn, the summer surplus would have to be stored for 3 months of Winter. That’s one battery cycle per year – prohibitively high capital cost.

Tidal turbines anyone? – peak every 12h, peak occurs at different times N to S on the coast. Cables run up rivers and estuaries to the local substations.

No need to go back to the stone / iron / pre-industrial age

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 13, 2020, 11:01:41 PM »

In the UK, offshore wind is down to 3.965 to 4.1611 p/kWh on a "contract for difference" - developers bid for a floor price, though they can sell for more if they can strike a commercial deal.

It's largely because the turbines are getting bigger, so less capital required for the capacity.

Nuclear, by comparison is 9.25p / kWh on a similar cfd and cannot increase output in winter as wind can, so massive inter-seasonal storage would be required.

Policy and solutions / Re: The Most Ambitious Plan of the Human Race
« on: January 13, 2020, 07:26:34 PM »
I note Nanning's point re. the efficiency of buses, but it would take a lot to get people out of their cars. The main issue is a finite number of routes, but the car can go anywhere.

I Also note Neil's issue with lack of services in a sparsely populated area

Public transport suits densely populated areas with many connections per node better, also walking, cycling, as what you want is usually closer. When congested, it suits cars less.
(Nanning - We'll tax cars more and use the money to free issue anyone who wants one an electric bike, helmet, lights, wet weather gear, a big stick to ward off cars...: )

Let the car's big batteries be part of the solution, allowing a much greater penetration of intermittent renewables.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:05:30 AM »

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2019, 06:09:21 AM »
“How soon before BOE is a possibility?”

About 14 years, if the linear trend continues
That’s a seriously scary number and worth mentioning in conversation, where appropriate.

With the spiky nature of the data, more likely to be sooner than that than not.
Also have to consider the many competing +ve and –ve feedbacks, but the timescale is so short, less than half of the Piomas record, I think their effect is unlikely to deflect the trend.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2019, 03:17:26 PM »
Oh, and I would like to make clear I have made many thousands of informative posts on this forum, it's just that my post count has been stuck at 62 since 1975.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:46:39 PM »
...Like I said, it's a tease this year, 2019 extent graph almost intersecting 2007....

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 04:35:15 PM »
@ Ossifrage. Good concise summary. Thanks

I believe the CAA will become a significant export route for the CAB in the years to come.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:52:18 PM »
...Also my post count is stuck again,  at 54 this time. I'll never get past being a crystal....
: )

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
Cloud free image of the CAA from Worldview, I think I'll frame it and put it on the wall.

More importantly there has been no Southward movement of ice from the CAB into the clear blue water in the last couple of days, despite a Northerly wind.

Wind is forecast to continue to from the North and strengthen for the next couple of days, also the Ice can stay mobile into early October, so there is still time for the CAB to populate the channels with floes.

However, if not, there will only be salty 1st year ice there, ready for an early breakup next year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 19, 2019, 01:16:16 PM »
Southward movement has restarted in Nares and between some of the Islands of the CAA: Borden, Ellef Ringes, Meighen and Ellesmere, also the South end of Parry Channel
Map here:

Wind has been light over the last few days (Gif is for 15th to 18th Aug) so this is this is mostly ocean current driven.

South of the floes is clear blue ocean, so the potential for export over the next 6 weeks (2 w past the expected minimum date) is high.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 05, 2019, 12:47:47 AM »

My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.

The tidal flow is generally from North to South through the CAA, so the CAA gets filled with floes from the CAB. Recently the wind has been from the South, preventing the usual South going export, but it looks like that has restarted.

The breakup of the first channel from CAB to Parry Chanel occurred at the end of July, the earliest on a tie with 2012. The export flow has continued into October in the past.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 04:48:22 AM »
CAA - There is cracking in the landfast ice all the way to the CAB. That's early, but not unprecedented. As near as I can, visibility permitting, the same event happend on these dates in the recent past:

2018 Aug 15
2017 Aug 22
2016 Between July 30 and Aug 04 (thick cloud)
2015 Jul 31
2014 Sept 12
2013 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 (thick cloud)
2012 July 28

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 05, 2019, 10:18:31 AM »
VBC has split in half.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 11, 2019, 04:00:12 PM »
Here's the throw,
Here's the play at the plate,
Holy cow.....

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« on: March 10, 2019, 09:43:25 AM »
Look like new ice is entering from the North.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 02, 2019, 10:01:29 AM »
Oops, I should have cited the source - NSIDC.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2019, 03:16:04 PM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.


Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:15:12 PM »
It's not over yet, 2018 extent is still flatlining. It's now lower for the day of year than any year since 2000 except 07 and 12.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 20, 2018, 07:05:50 AM »
Breakup in the Perry Channel. Clouds make it hard to see the extent. Polar view does not have an image of the area post breakup yet.

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