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Messages - Iain

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:05:30 AM »
@charles_oil

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2019, 06:09:21 AM »
“How soon before BOE is a possibility?”

About 14 years, if the linear trend continues
That’s a seriously scary number and worth mentioning in conversation, where appropriate.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png

With the spiky nature of the data, more likely to be sooner than that than not.
Also have to consider the many competing +ve and –ve feedbacks, but the timescale is so short, less than half of the Piomas record, I think their effect is unlikely to deflect the trend.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2019, 03:17:26 PM »
Oh, and I would like to make clear I have made many thousands of informative posts on this forum, it's just that my post count has been stuck at 62 since 1975.






 ;)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:46:39 PM »
...Like I said, it's a tease this year, 2019 extent graph almost intersecting 2007....

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 04:35:15 PM »
@ Ossifrage. Good concise summary. Thanks

I believe the CAA will become a significant export route for the CAB in the years to come.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 03:52:18 PM »
...Also my post count is stuck again,  at 54 this time. I'll never get past being a crystal....
: )


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
Cloud free image of the CAA from Worldview, I think I'll frame it and put it on the wall.

More importantly there has been no Southward movement of ice from the CAB into the clear blue water in the last couple of days, despite a Northerly wind.

Wind is forecast to continue to from the North and strengthen for the next couple of days, also the Ice can stay mobile into early October, so there is still time for the CAB to populate the channels with floes.

However, if not, there will only be salty 1st year ice there, ready for an early breakup next year.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 19, 2019, 01:16:16 PM »
Southward movement has restarted in Nares and between some of the Islands of the CAA: Borden, Ellef Ringes, Meighen and Ellesmere, also the South end of Parry Channel
Map here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Archipelago

Wind has been light over the last few days (Gif is for 15th to 18th Aug) so this is this is mostly ocean current driven.

South of the floes is clear blue ocean, so the potential for export over the next 6 weeks (2 w past the expected minimum date) is high.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 05, 2019, 12:47:47 AM »

My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.
[/quote]

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.
[/quote]

The tidal flow is generally from North to South through the CAA, so the CAA gets filled with floes from the CAB. Recently the wind has been from the South, preventing the usual South going export, but it looks like that has restarted.

The breakup of the first channel from CAB to Parry Chanel occurred at the end of July, the earliest on a tie with 2012. The export flow has continued into October in the past.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 04:48:22 AM »
CAA - There is cracking in the landfast ice all the way to the CAB. That's early, but not unprecedented. As near as I can, visibility permitting, the same event happend on these dates in the recent past:

2018 Aug 15
2017 Aug 22
2016 Between July 30 and Aug 04 (thick cloud)
2015 Jul 31
2014 Sept 12
2013 between Aug 11 and Aug 22 (thick cloud)
2012 July 28

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 05, 2019, 10:18:31 AM »
VBC has split in half.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 11, 2019, 04:00:12 PM »
Here's the throw,
Here's the play at the plate,
Holy cow.....

14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« on: March 10, 2019, 09:43:25 AM »
Look like new ice is entering from the North.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 02, 2019, 10:01:29 AM »
Oops, I should have cited the source - NSIDC.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 01, 2019, 03:16:04 PM »
I’m not calling the maximum, I’ll leave that to a more frequent poster, only that I think it is more likely than not the max is already past.

Because:

Mar 1st is the long term 1981 to 2010 peak
2019 would have to climb 0.113 M km2 to exceed the Feb 25th extent
DMI shows above average temperature for most of the arctic
The Climate re-analyser 3 day forecast shows above average temperature for most of the arctic, though not on the Atlantic periphery

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:15:12 PM »
It's not over yet, 2018 extent is still flatlining. It's now lower for the day of year than any year since 2000 except 07 and 12.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 20, 2018, 07:05:50 AM »
Breakup in the Perry Channel. Clouds make it hard to see the extent. Polar view does not have an image of the area post breakup yet.

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov


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