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Messages - johnm33

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1
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:35:14 PM »
An analysis of the recent Iranian response to the hit on their General, or at least the first and fully signalled response.
"The military implication – and this is truly “strategic” level – is that the U.S. will never again be able to move its army or air force into position in the Middle East, to stage another war such as invading Iraq in 1991 and later in 2003.

Every runway, every hangar, every airplane, every tank, every truck, every tent, every outhouse is now at risk. And every naval pier – and refueling or re-arming site – is also at risk; because even ships tied to a pier (or anchored out!) can be targeted exactly."
 https://stpaulresearch.com/2020/01/11/the-real-target-of-irans-missiles-revealed-hint-it-was-a-direct-hit/

2
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 30, 2020, 08:29:53 PM »
The fed handing over $2.5m per.sec. during work hours to save wall st.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/fed-repos-have-plowed-6-6-trillion-to-wall-street-in-four-months-thats-34-of-its-feeding-tube-during-epic-financial-crash/
"According to the data made available on the public website of the New York Fed, since September 17, 2019 it has funneled a cumulative total of $6.6 trillion to some of  the 24 trading houses on Wall Street that are known as its “primary dealers.” The giant sum has been sluiced to Wall Street in the form of repurchase agreement (repo) loans without any details being provided to the elected representatives in Congress as to which firms are getting the money or what it’s being ultimately used for. But since the stock market has set repeated new highs since the program launched, some veteran market watchers believe the Fed is fueling a Ponzi-like rally in stocks."

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:48:22 PM »
Worth the read. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JC010310
"We conclude that tidal shear stresses at the bottom and the ice‐ocean interface facilitate the transport of warmer and saltier AW to the surface layers, while the effects of tides along the Siberian shelf result in mixing of fresh river runoff waters with saltier water below the eroding halocline. Mixed layers, being much thicker due to the effects of the critical latitude on the clockwise component of tidal currents, entrain saltier waters to the surface boundary layers. Along the Siberian coast with strong river runoff, thicker boundary layers result in mixing in halocline and penetration of freshened waters to depth. Finally we find that, in this particular model, tides are responsible for ∼15% of the ice volume reduction and the presence of more salt waters at the surface in average by ∼1–1.7 PSU (Figure 14). Tides significantly modify the freshwater pathways along the Siberian shelf, resulting in saltier water along the Greenland coast. Tides affect the fresh water and heat content in the AO, with a reduction in the former by 7% in the upper 100 m"

4
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 03:17:03 PM »
nanning are there large greenhouses anywhere upwind of your location, does it get worse when/after the sun shines, are they heated? You could try using one of those activated charcoal masks urban cyclists use, otherwise your prolonged depleted state of vitamin D may indicate problems with myelin sheathing and/or gut biome so maybe the supplements would be a good idea, what about B12 levels?. 

5
The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 22, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »
"Central bankers and their cohorts manipulate economic data and promote the false notion of a boom before almost every major crash because they WANT to ambush the populace. They WANT to create panic, and then use it to their advantage as they rebuild and mutate the system into something unrecognizable only decades ago. Each consecutive crash contributes to the collapse of the whole, until eventually the society we once had is barely a distant memory."
http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4049-how-long-will-it-take-for-the-us-to-collapse
usa is to empire as luca brasi was to the corleone family

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 18, 2020, 10:24:27 PM »
"so would require a mechanism to mix with colder surface water" yes what I'm suggesting is that internal waves possibly generated by A.W. entering the basin as tidal surges, are travelling to Laptev and back towards Greenland are in turn generating orthogonal waves which are dashed against the bathymetry at depth, both north of Svalbard and at inconsistences in the gradients of the troughs and where the troughs terminate beneath Barentz. It's clearer in your 'season' thread animation though without the cloud streets suggesting extreme 'spin' I'd probably think simple wind action the likeliest explanation.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 17, 2020, 05:30:21 PM »
Link Taken together the cloud streets and the break aligned with the islands suggest internal waves propagated in the basins are forcing orthogonal waves south and these are disturbing the ice as they wash up the contours.
Rebound, again suggests huge amount of activity at depth, at least some of which must be A.W forced into the basin by tides judging by Hycoms salinity gif.

9
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 12, 2020, 10:30:39 AM »
Here Gordon Duff [VT] suggests the accuracy of Irans weapons gave Trump pause, https://journal-neo.org/2020/01/11/new-facts-change-everything-the-sickening-truth-about-why-iran-schooled-america/
"Similarly, when missiles plowed into the “consular” facilities, really weapons warehouses, at Erbil International Airport, in the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq, the US denied any hits claiming to have shot down two of three missiles and the other a “wide miss.”

Then, as is so often the case, American military personnel billeted in the apartment buildings just south of the facility uploaded their video to YouTube.

Three missiles, thee direct hits, dramatic explosions, which the Americans seemed to enjoy immensely"

10
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 23, 2019, 11:23:44 PM »
Iirc it was Gurdgieff who introduced me to the idea that the long verse narratives that were plied as a trade by professional storytellers were actually a means of transmitting huge amounts of information through the generations without the storyteller having to know what he was transmitting. I sort of got it but 'Homers secret Iliad' demonstrated that i really hadn't, my guess is that 'Homer' was the joint work of the enslaved Troian bards preserving their culture and history for posterity, so perhaps as close as anything to a western tradition of 'Druidism' we have.
Here's Ceasars take on the Druids and a critique that seems even handed to me, from the Barddas.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2019, 01:05:56 PM »
thanks bl.
Now imagine there's a surface current moving in the same direction as the wave, then think that after say 10,000years of repetitions [@6.5million] that very wave action caused the current. Didn't read this anywhere so no links but noticed whilst trying to figure out tidal action in Baffin that the currents tended to follow the tidal path, then looked around and saw that this was generally the case, so I supposed currents are residuals of tides, reinforced by inertially driven movements of waters as they move closer to/further from the equator, eventually taking on 'a life of their own'. A process in it's infancy in the Arctic.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »
Animation with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges onto the Barentz shelf, that water having come from due south[+/-] is moving faster than the earths tangential surface speed so once on the shelf very little returns the same way, instead it flows into the basins and points east. That in turn forces deeper water to flow out through Fram, to a similar magnitude. The tidal inflow is periodic and variable but the outflow tends to be self similar and I suspect acts like a flywheel in that it will continue to pass water south despite tidal forcings. In this way Atlantification accelerates.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:34:32 PM »
Currents Tides compare. Brief, 5 pages

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 12:19:37 AM »
Is something new happening?
I think it's just the result of Atlantification, and that that took off with the loss of cover over Barentz. The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water. The tidal inflows always take the path of least resistance, which remains variable and thus opaque, the outflows are at depth in Fram, Nares and through the CAA plus the surface ice lost through Fram and a little via Nares.
Previously the surface water flows were inhibited/calmed/baffled by the complex geometry of submerged ice, fixed and landlocked, now the ice moves perforce with near surface currents. Thats to say that there's a substantial difference in energy loss between inducing waves in deeper denser water than in moving ice through air. If, as i assume, the ice presents little resistance to surface currents then all the energy that would have been consumed/lost at the deeper interface with denser water now goes into moving the ice. 
Looking at the recent movent/schism by Mosaic for instance, my guess would be that tidal forces induced a flow of Atlantic waters to pass east beneath the spreading Pacific waters and drop over Lomonosov into the deep, were the ice thick enough that would have passed unseen/unimagined.

15
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 13, 2019, 07:22:11 PM »
Labour promised their northern 'tribal' vote more of the same, well they've had that for over a generation and they're not mad or stupid enough to think more of the same is going to stop the decline in their prosperity or reduce the rate of moral decay around them. So this I guess is just a kick in the nuts for the incumbents. A couple of decent reads to embellish silkmans words, an analysis which seems even handed to me, and some thoughts from Craig Murray always worth reading.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:31:33 PM »
Well thats a keeper, so much to see, i can't express how much i appreciate your work here thank you.

18
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:14:42 PM »
Hunter gatherers tend to breastfeed on demand, that generally leads to children being born about 4 years apart, so 25% is close to the max rate.
Isolated communities of all types suffer increasing loss of fertility and congenital defects from excess consanquinity, island girls deal with this by the warm reception given to passing sailors, peasants/serfs by some type of try before you buy, aristocracies by heir, spare then miscellany. I imagine when isolated groups of hominids met they happily miscegenated, some hybrids prospering some not, but since H.Sap. was/is the only one who was hard wired for grammatical language once, any hominid group had been penetrated by H.Sap. the word got passed on.  ;)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 23, 2019, 10:37:52 PM »
"Up to the point where the current starts sinking, it is most definitely flowing along the surface. And I think I did say something about the continental slope and the current having sunk enough to actually follow that slope. But not before it sinks!"
I've said elsewhere that I've convinced myself that current are the residuals of tidal movements. Here there's a tidal surge flowing north between Iceland and the Hebrides it passes in the west over a shelf about 500m deep and east of the Faroes over a shelf about 1500m deep, that is how deep the current could be, but flowing south over the same shelves are some Arctic waters that have been led by bathymetry away from Denmark strait where the bulk of Arctic waters flow south, but on the western side of the mid atlantic ridge. My guess would be that the inflow here exceeds the outflow so allow maybe max depth of 800m for the northbound current. Some part of it diverts around the Voring plateau which lies below 1000m suggesting it's saline enough to drop below 800m. It's moving north and east so outpacing the Earths rotation and has to shed about 15mph. per deg. as it moves north, that kinetic energy adds to the temp. of the current. The deeper parts of the currents are never going to make the climb, in competition with the top 500m of flow, onto the Barents shelf and are forced almost due north towards SV. and again become warmer. Some fraction also makes it onto the shelf as it traverses the slope the rest piles up near the persistent anomoly before it moves either around SV to head east, across the north Greenland shelf to Nares/CAA or flows south joining the Arctic waters. Each of the flows is variable according to tidal forcings and mslps even as far as Bering. 
Someone [?] linked to a paper that found evidence that the Arctic ice cap once rested on Lomonosov, so 1km+ thick, I suspect that this was coincident with the breakdown in the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic. If the ice was 1km in the central arctic then it's not a stretch to think that Barents too was icebound and that tidally driven currents have very slowly Atlantified the Norwegian, Greenland and now Barents seas. The tides remain consistent but the currents are slowly increasing and penetrating ever further so very slowly then all at once seems about right.
Tangential speed
Given their rounded shape both the Voring plateau and the Barents shelf north of Norway could be ancient landslides?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 20, 2019, 10:50:36 PM »
binntho, I think where I most differ with you is that you give the impression your only considering surface and near surface waters. For me there is no resident water in the Norwegian sea, it's constantly being renewed by 'gulf stream/nad' waters from further south, so that water occupies the whole depth. Moving north/east it splits into energetic fractions the densest flowing north along the steep contours of the Barents shelf towards and around Svalbard then east along the shelfs contours and here the turbulence it creates in the waters coming off the shelf causes weak ice to melt. The energetic potential of the lightest fraction [recently at 60degN, @500mph surface speed now 68degN, @370mph] rounding Norway loses some of it's kinetic energy to heat but never enough to allow it to return by the same route, thus there's a constant but variable flow off the shelf into Nansen.
 Enough images here

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM »

22
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:27:22 AM »
maybe switch to brr?

23
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:21:58 PM »
We're clearly inside a black hole watching the energetic em storm being brought to order by integration of all it's information and the shock into conciousness that the phase shift to singularity caused. Give it another week, in outside time, and it'll all start to make sense. Though from here we should be able to see the axis of rotation if not the backs of our heads.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 29, 2019, 11:10:13 AM »
Atlantification.
Looking poleward it seems there's tidal induced flows penetrating into Nansen/Amundsen basins via St. Anna trough, forcing surface melting south of the pole around the 90E M. and I'm guessing the eastward flow and bathymetry generates the more saline surfacing water around 140-135E 85N, and the semicircle of saline water it unites with. I suspect there's a certain amount of internal wave formation going on in the basins as a consequence and that when the harmonics are just right there's a reverse gradient formed north of Greenland that facilitates the wind driven departure of it's resident ice. When that wave complex moves back into the deep it'll draw more Atlantic water in.
 

25
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 19, 2019, 03:36:45 PM »
This speaks for itself

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

This is ‘May Mk2’ – the EU’s latest colonisation treaty for the UK

Prepared by Brexit Facts4EU.Org with advice from a Brussels-based barrister

Legend: ‘WA’ = Withdrawal Agreement, ‘PD’ = Political Declaration

1. Parliament will not be sovereign - UK still to be governed by existing and new laws of the ECJ – a foreign court – and with no say over these laws. [WA articles 4, 87, 89 and 127, PD para 131]

2. Demands payment of a sum to be decided by the EU - Minimum £39 billion but this is likely to increase and the EU decides the final sum. This must be paid BEFORE any trade deal is agreed. [WA articles 138-144, and 152-155]

3. No trade deal with EU – Not included as this is just a divorce treaty. Any EU trade deal must ensure “a level playing field for open and fair competition” and “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”. This will make it difficult for the UK to reduce non-tariff barriers in trade deals with USA, Australia, China, etc. [PD paras 17 & 21]

4. Prevents independent tax policy - Political Declaration still obliges UK to adopt a future relationship which will impose EU State Aid rules and “relevant tax matters” on the UK. EU specifically intends to curb UK’s ability to have “harmful tax practices”. Withdrawal Treaty also applies EU law to UK during transition period - allowing EU to sue UK, including infringement proceedings for as yet unidentified breaches of State Aid rules and billions in VAT on commodity derivative transactions dating back to 1970s. [PD para 77, WA articles 86, 93, 127].

5. Restricts independent foreign policy - UK to be bound by international agreements concluded by the EU despite having no influence in their negotiation during the transition period and must “refrain, during the transition period, from any action... which is likely to be prejudicial” to the interests of the EU. [Articles 129(3) and (6)].

6. Prevents independent military action – UK permanently stopped from taking “any action likely to conflict with or impede” EU’s foreign policies. Critical parts of section on foreign policy and security are not reciprocal, eg future relationship will not “prejudice the decision-making autonomy of the EU” but no such language for UK – only permitted to “maintain the right to determine how [to respond] to any invitation to participate in operations or missions”. Also, parties “agree to consider” security collaboration in European Defence Agency, European Defence Fund, and PESCO “to the extent possible under [EU law]” which is prescriptive (not permissive) obligation. Despite paying for European Defence Agency during transition, British troops in EU battlegroups will not be led by British staff officers. [WA articles 129(6-7) and 156-157, PD paras 99, 102(c)]

7. Controls UK fishing – Common Fisheries Policy continues in UK waters during transition (which can be extended) but UK will have no say in implementation or enforcement. After transition, Political Declaration requires “cooperation on... regulation of fisheries, in a non-discriminatory manner” - code for continuing current arrangements for EU access to UK waters. Any trade deal to “ensure service providers and investors are treated in a non-discriminatory manner, including with regard to establishment” - prevents UK protecting quotas from EU purchase. [PD paras 29 and 72]

8. Replaces one EU Commission with another - New body established with “powers equivalent to those of the European Commission”. UK must accept exclusive jurisdiction of Arbitration Panel and judgments of ECJ. Grants EU officials criminal immunity and exemption from UK tax. Imposes gagging order on UK which must keep all EU information confidential but EU can use UK information as it sees fit. [WA articles 74, 101, 104-5, 106-116, 159, 168, 174]

9. Leaves UK with €500bn liabilities from EU Investment Bank but no profits - No rights to past and future profits made from UK investment in EIB, no rights to UK share of assets of EIB, yet UK remaining liable for risk of up to €500bn of guarantees. UK must let EU bid for UK public projects at least during transition. [WA articles 34, 75-78, 127, 143, 147, 150].

10. EU colonisation - makes UK bystander in laws that govern it - UK permitted to send civil servant to Brussels to observe EU passing laws designed to disadvantage UK economy during transition which might last many years. EU could regulate London’s huge foreign exchange markets, impose financial transaction tax that would be collected at UK expense by HMRC but sent to foreign governments. [WA article 34]
from https://facts4eu.org/news/2019_oct_eu_treaty_for_uk_colonisation#
my understanding is that 2 is an annual payment
   
This may be called a withdrawal agreement that has the full support of both the EU and UK bureaucrats but clearly the shafting will continue in or out without a so called hard brexit. I think the current plan is a referendum on this or remain

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »
Why?
I'm thinking there are several 'strings' of Atl. water flowing according to the bathymetry of the Greenland/Norwegian seas. The northernmost following the shelf where Barents begins. These currents are pressed to move north into the Arctic proper for this they have to climb over the deep outflowing current, as they climb their inherent spin [they've been approaching the axis of rotation for some time] forces them into vortices where the various fractions sort themselves out but they also interefere with one another, so some excess heat will be released but perhaps the sensors are also detecting the turbulence of the interefering vortices.

27
Nice catch B-l thanks, looking forward to Padmans work from this mission.

28
  Great stuff Espen thank you. Wow just wow covers it.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 19, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »
However a wave is generated it is a visible sign of a pressure wave passing through the water. So in 20m of water that [1m?]wave may have enough energy to mix recently melted water inhibiting refreeze. That same pressure wave moving into 200m deep water will barely cause a [10cm?] ripple. On the shelves once a certain, differing, threshold of melt has passed wave action will mix the water around the ice, over the deep ocean the meltwater will move to the surface or as close as it can get thus allowing the ice to 'repair' itself with easy to freeze freshwater.
 Incoming Atlantic waters are already denser, more saline, than the surface waters of the Arctic, which is why their currents follow the channels into Barentz, and why they fall into the Eurasian basin.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 18, 2019, 05:02:58 PM »
As kindly suggested I apply to those of you who 'get it' here: Why should there be any connection between ocean depth and surface ice. The assumption that deep water in the CAB should somehow protect the ice keeps popping up, but why should that be the case?
Whereas the shelves will support wave action once a pressure waves passes the edge of the shelf it dissipates into water which can be orders of magnitude deeper.

31
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: September 07, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »
There was a documentary featuring Chomsky on RT this week that spelled out the corporate takeover of the political process.
The curious thing about being the issuer of the means of exchange, whether as a banker within a nation or a nation in the world is that the cost of goods is the cost of fiat 'money' creation thus a 100 or 1000 dollar bill costing about 12c can be issued freely and provide for all a societies needs without any need for work, organising a prosperous and fulfilled society with that boon should be a piece of cake. Instead the rich waste vast and ever increasing resources to control, suppress and stick it to the poor, worldwide, go figure?

32
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: September 07, 2019, 11:57:37 AM »
" the earth's purpose is complete"
Until the sun sends us the bill everything will be ok.
Plus a little confimation bias, http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2019/08/arctic-storms.html storms [lows] centered on the pole accelerate ice/surface water, relative to the rotating frame, which must then move south, coinciding with tidal forcing of Atl. waters through to St. Anna trough and thus across to Lomonosov would cause serious upwelling of warm waters, but even this late in the season not enough to cause more than temporary melt, that may change.

33
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 27, 2019, 01:31:25 AM »
So drifting ot "I've witnessed the effect that eating tulips has had on the intellect of following generation. Sad.
Terry" do tell
Intellect so far as I can see also depends on ancestral decisions. If cousin marraige, or isolated populations forced to inbreed, happens IQ drops @15 points with no advantages. If girls are allowed to breed then IQ drops @15 points with the advantages of robust physicallity/immunity and unwarranted confidence plus early 'maturity'. I guess the message from our genetic code is [if you want to be smart and tall] avoid Tulips/Cousins/Sisters eat well and wait wait wait.
Terry I guess that your maternal grandmother was over 25 and well nourished when she produced your mother?

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 27, 2019, 12:47:16 AM »
" Your comments and thoughts, please."
 Far from shore, I suspect that the pressure gradient between the Arctic and Labrador seas is increasingly being met by deep currents of Atlantic waters making their way around N. Greenland through Nares and into Baffin. If Petermann breaks soon that would add confidence to my thoughts, as the breakout of waters from the north side of Humbolt already has. IF my guess has merit then the surface flows, normally southbound become more prone to tidal, even wind, driven changes. So whilst the ice coming from the north will be driven against the coast of Ellesmere to accelerate it to equilibrium with tangential rotational speed once the surface flow is northbound the ice will switch sides and be slowed down by Greenland.
   

35
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:42:20 PM »
Size is very dependant on diet mainly diets of ancestors. If you want to be tall the best thing to do is make sure your maternal grandmother eats well before and during her pregnancy. After generations of near starvation the English were reduced in height to an average of about 5ft, many victorian houses in the 1950s still had doors that were less than 6ft. high. So within three generations the size/height of a population can be transformed.
I've never seen a study that examined the cumulative effects of great/rubbish diets over long periods but there was a Finnish study that established that the effects of starvation carried implications for genetic expression through at least 7 generations.
 

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:39:54 PM »
Not the question you asked but "Hydrate breakdown is an endothermic process, absorbing heat while the surrounding sediment cools. Because the specific heat of methane hydrates is about half that of water, hydrate-bearing sediment stores less heat which can then be made available to help fuel dissociation. When estimating the efficiency of hydrate dissociation, neglecting the reduced contribution of methane hydrates to the host sedi-ment’s specific heat results in an overestimate of the dissocia-tion rate and, hence, the methane production rate." from https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2007/3041/pdf/FS-2007-3041.pdf

37
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 20, 2019, 02:55:23 PM »
Another look at the outflow from Zach/79N and Humbolt curious that despite clear evidence of flows from Jakobshvn no sign of freshwater. The second gif shows the uplift in temp around 5/6 Aug. 9c associated with the outflow at Zach/79N. 1, 30days from 27:07. 2, 10 days from 01:08


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: August 17, 2019, 06:46:06 PM »
110 took quite a battering, I'm guessing intersecting waves reflected off the shelves caused a huge pressure spike on the 15th July, it looks like it 'bounced' generating tauroidal 'smoke ring' type wave structures which spread across the whole basin sending shockwaves back which damaged 110 when it approached the shelf/amundsen generated tidal vortices around the 5th. 1.7mb gif won't be here long
link
switched gif for link

39
I chose sept16-30, the frequent stops and starts of ice export in Fram suggest to me that the deep current of Atl. water from the north is balancing most of the demand of the gradient between the Arctic and Baffin. That current I'm guessing enters on the north side of Peterman and leaves on the south side, enhanced by the tides, so since I expect that current to warm until at least mid sept. the best chance of the island breaking free probably comes towards the end of sept as the tides peak.

40
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:09:02 PM »
Consider this, "When I look around at the state of public discourse in ‘the West’  what strikes me is that everyone says they want to have a reasoned and rational debate but say that the reason it doesn’t happen is because the ‘other side’ is irrational and so they can’t be debated with. The ‘other side’, their opponents say, always avoids the debate, is never willing to just answer a reasonable question and generally just refuse to have the debate they claim to want.  Does this resonate with you?" continued here :- http://www.golemxiv.co.uk/2019/05/how-to-prevent-debate-while-claiming-to-be-in-favour-of-it/

41
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:35:59 PM »
I prefer the idea of universal basic credit where everyone would be allowed a subsistence amount of interest free credit, which has to be repaid by a 2.5% tax on every transaction. Eventually enough of this interest free 'money' would exist to liberate society from the near 40% upstream interest charges on every transaction that supports the financial sector, and thus allow sophisticated societies to evolve which wouldn't price themselves out of work.

42
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 11, 2019, 12:21:17 PM »
A look at freshwater discharge. 30 days to 10:08 HYCOM

43
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:26:28 PM »
Gumbercules perhaps you should try to trace the history of the big heads of Puma Punka which Brien Foerster takes such an interest in, they're as close as anyone to fitting the bill.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: July 28, 2019, 06:43:51 PM »
Interesting feature.
I think whats happening there is that Atl. waters which are pressed in to the area by NAD/Gulf stream + tides, some, the fastest, climb the shelf tight to the Norwegian coast, some climb the shelf south of Svarlbad, some get caught up against the shelf tight against Svarlbad, others forming deep vortices get caught up in the deep channels that run north. The last two+ meet at the anomoly hotspot, then move north and depending on the momentary situation may be drawn across the north of Svarlbad or Greenland, these waters may be energetically comfortable at 60N but here they are moving against there 'natural' inertia and rapidly approaching the axis of rotation so once moving will organise into vortices to refine and disperse that excess.

welcome back B-l

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 05:32:44 PM »
Looks like Atlantic waters have met Pacific waters by Amundsen/Banks and are doing the do-si-do

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 28, 2019, 09:51:53 AM »
Maybe something maybe nothing, I was looking at hycom beaufort ice strength gif, towards the end the ice appears to change state and is no longer able to sustain cracks, that is evidence of internal waves.

and looking at A.H.s most recent gifs on the Nares thread suggests the same

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Another calving and huge discharge from the main branch Polarview


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The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: June 16, 2019, 11:36:10 PM »
  .. I'll just set my pipe down .. I'm awaiting my 10th prosecution for using and sharing this wonderful herb with the sick and dying .. things change ... b.c.
My first job [at 15] was in a scrap [metal] yard, the old guys there were full of stories, mostly they'd served in the trenches 14-18, I wish now I'd listened more ... apparently when they were young when they couldn't afford to drink they would buy opium/heroin/diamorphine tablets, cheaper than drinking but not sociable, so they preferred to drink, legislated against by the beerocracy, they also smoked dope which they said was easily available until the mid 30s.
Then there was the stuff about trench warfare between officers and men[boys] where the officers were so despised they'd be shot from behind in an advance until the officer 'class' started to send their children to the front as lieutenants  who no-one had the heart to shoot.
best wishes bc

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: June 16, 2019, 06:25:37 PM »
Hycoms current thickness gif

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Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: June 15, 2019, 05:46:14 PM »
Looking at this https://phys.org/news/2019-06-link-north-atlantic-currents-sea.html it seems a no brainer to me that if you have increased Arctic waters flowing down the coast lets say with the inherent inertia of 750N then it'll have two main effects. The first is that it will force itself into the coast, and continue to do that further south. The second is that once it is forced by Gulf stream waters away from the coast those waters will mix until equilibrium is reached slowing down the gulf stream/north atlantic drift.
What does this model show if not that?

If you open nullschool and select O from projections you'll see from 90-600N is about half of the distance of the equator from the axis of rotation and 300N about an eighth of the distance. Thus the inertia of tropical waters is too low to separate from the coast until the distance to the axis [surface speed] begins to decrease, so I would expect the highest effects of slr to be where both streams detatch and all points north, until the water reaches equilibrium with rotational speed, which may vary but just now appears to be about 52N, so peaking around 41N. Why am I wrong?

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