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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: Today at 11:09:16 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,842,849 km2(February 24, 2020)

- 2019 is 22nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 3 k, 7 k less than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 10k,
- Extent gain to date 0.08 million km2, 0.01 million (6.5%) less than the 10 year average of 0.09 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 680 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 540 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 418 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 13 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 0.6% of the average ice gain of the season done, with on average 209 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.73 million km2, 0.67 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.

Look at the 1st Table (projections) ANT1 with a cwt. bag of salt.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 09:58:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,097,689 km2(February 24, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 74 k, 91 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 17 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,133 k, 536 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,597 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 291 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k more than 2019
- Extent is 98 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 15 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.4 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 24, 2020, 12:14:09 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   17,011,212  km2 as at 23 February 2020

11 days after the average date of minimum, I am assuming that the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, possibly not.

But today only time to post the graphs & tables.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 24, 2020, 11:43:13 AM »
It is snowing, so events have interrupted the events, which means here is a spasmodic posting.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,171,323 km2(February 23, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 55 k, 78 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 23 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,207 k, 627 k (6.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,580 k.
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k more than 2019
- Extent is 189 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 16 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.43 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.55 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.7 to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

5
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 23, 2020, 11:29:33 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- ASSUMING MINIMUM OF 2,759,291 km2 on February 19, 2020,

Given three days of sea ice extent increases I am assuming that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2. If so, that minimum was 29th lowest, 12th highest in the satellite record..

6
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 23, 2020, 11:20:06 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,825,962 km2(February 22, 2020)

Given three days of sea ice extent increases I am assuming that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2. Another foolish hostage to fortune.

- 2019 is 24th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 34 k, 24 k more than the last 10 years' average extent gain of 10k,
- Extent gain to date 0.07 million km2, 0.01 million (8%) more than the 10 year average of 0.06 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 634 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 570 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 361 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 15 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 0.4% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 211 days to the average date of maximum of 20 September.

The Perils of Projections

Average freeze from this date would produce a maximum of 18.74 million km2, 0.68 million MORE than the record low on 12th Sep 2017 of 18.06 million km2.

Look at the 1st Table (projections) ANT1 with a cwt. bag of salt.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2020, 09:14:23 PM »
Normal service will not be resumed for up to 2 weeks.
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".

Spasmodic postings at odd hours will hopefully continue.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,226,335 km2(February 22, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 44 k, 23 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,262 k, 705 k (7.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,557k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 414 k more than 2017
- Extent is 32 k more than 2019
- Extent is 267 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 17 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.51 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.63 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +4.0 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

8
Consequences / Re: General Drought Stuff
« on: February 21, 2020, 04:43:02 PM »
I have read somewhere that a persons water consumption in official statistics includes also water used in food and stuff that the person buys or uses in some manner, so whatever we drink and use in food, washing etc is usually lot less than the totals in statistics... as I haven’t looked at thsi lately the statistics might include also the water that industries use, divided with state population.
There are many studies which try and show all water consumption by a country. E.g. a study suggested that only 38% of water used by the UK came from UK water resources. The rest is water used in producing the food and manufactured goods that we import.

BUT the official stats published by Governments, the UN and others refer to water withdrawn for use and where it goes, i.e. for agriculture, industry and domestic (including public services).

Worldwide, the proportions are 70% for agriculture, 19% for industry and 11% domestic, but vary wildly country by country dependent on climate and income per capita.

N.B. Water withdrawn is defines as water withdrawal is defined as
the quantity of freshwater taken from groundwater or surface water sources (such as lakes or rivers) for use in agricultural, industrial or domestic purposes.

Thus the agriculture figure of 70% does not include rain (& snow and even natural flooding), falling on planted agricultural land and pastures. The subject is far more complex than at first sight.

I have done the biz on this for water/sanitation projects in a good many countries - & even within countries the variations can be extreme, especially when looking at the water balance, i.e., withdrawals vs natural replenishment. e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/20/colorado-river-flow-shrinks-climate-crisis
Colorado River flow shrinks from climate crisis, risking ‘severe water shortages’
Millions of people rely on the 1,450-mile waterway as increasing periods of drought and rising temperatures reduce flow of river

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2020, 03:53:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,878,752 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,878,752    km2      
 166,589    km2   >   2010's average.
 54,998    km2   >   2019
-352,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     18    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     17    k   gain
 Greenland____     3    k   gain
 Barents ______    -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Daily gain of 19 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 17 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 167 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 55 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 353 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2020, 11:44:12 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,873,079 km2 as at 20 February 2020

8 days after the average date of minimum, a second and massive daily sea ice extent GAIN of 129 k. Now very likely that the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, possibly not.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 129 k, 112 k more than the last 10 years' average gain of 17 k,
- Extent is 0.90 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.16 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.29 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.06 million km2 more than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 8 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum to be confirmed (one more day of extent gains would do it). The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over, i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

11
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 21, 2020, 11:29:33 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,759,291 km2(February 19, 2020)

It is possible that the minimum was reached on 19th February @  2,759,291 km2

- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent increase on this day 15 k, 17 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 2k,
- Extent loss to date 15.57 million km2, 0.44 million (2.7%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 575 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 544 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 281 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 0 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.76 million km2, 0.61 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 21, 2020, 10:22:29 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,099,241 km2(February 20, 2020)

There's a surprise. 115k extent increase and a new current maximum.

- Extent gain on this day 115 k, 95 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,135 k, 624 k (8.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,511k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 322 k more than 2017
- Extent is 14 k more than 2019
- Extent is 186 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 19 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .

13
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: February 20, 2020, 06:48:52 PM »
We are now beyond insect decline - we are well into insect extinction.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/20/fates-humans-insects-intertwined-scientists-population-collapse

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320719317823?via%3Dihub#bb0910
Scientists' warning to humanity on insect extinctions

Quote
Current estimates suggest that insects may number 5.5 million species, with only one fifth of these named (Stork, 2018). The number of threatened and extinct insect species is woefully underestimated because of so many species being rare or undescribed. For example, the IUCN Red List (version 2019-2) only includes ca. 8400 species out of one million described, representing a possible 0.2% of all extant species (IUCN, 2019). However, it is likely that insect extinctions since the industrial era are around 5 to 10%, i.e. 250,000 to 500,000 species, based on estimates of 7% extinctions for land snails (Régnier et al., 2015). In total at least one million species are facing extinction in the coming decades, half of them being insects (IPBES, 2019).

It is not only their vast numbers, but the dependency of ecosystems and humanity on them, that makes the conservation of insect diversity critical for future generations. A major challenge now and in the coming years is to maintain and enhance the beneficial contributions of nature to all people. Insects are irreplaceable components in this challenge, as are other invertebrates and biodiversity in general.

Here we build on the manifesto World Scientists' Warning to Humanity, issued by the Union of Concerned Scientists (1992) and re-issued 25 years later by the Alliance of World Scientists (Ripple et al., 2017). The latter warning was signed by over 15,000 scientists and claims that humans are “pushing Earth's ecosystems beyond their capacities to support the web of life.” (https://www.scientistswarning.org/the-warning/). As a group of conservation biologists deeply concerned about the decline of insect populations worldwide, we here review what we know about the drivers of insect extinctions, their consequences, and how extinctions can negatively impact humanity. We end with an appeal for urgent action to decrease our knowledge deficits and curb insect extinctions.

We are causing insect extinctions
Irrespective of the precise trends and their spatial distribution, human activity is responsible for almost all current insect population declines and extinctions. Yet, in order to act, we first need to identify and quantify the different ways we are acting upon them, recognizing that much is still to be understood, and more often than not, several factors contribute synergistically to decline or extinction

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2020, 03:10:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,860,204  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,860,204    km2      
 164,618    km2   >   2010's average.
 70,281    km2   >   2019
-361,474    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     4    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     1    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -10    k   loss
 Other Seas___     14    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______    -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain of 4 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 165 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 70 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 361 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2020, 02:35:58 PM »
Looks like bloody cold in Canada (and much of USA) over the next few weeks.

Also looks likely to be a big contrast with Northern Europe and Siberia for some time to come.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2020, 01:22:30 PM »
7 days after the average date of minimum, a daily sea ice extent GAIN. Now maybe the 17th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, maybe not.
Correction ? - Surely extent was 16.72 yesterday (18th) not the 17th?
Yep - corrected. Should not be half-asleep when I do this stuff.

But then it would never be done.

17
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 20, 2020, 12:42:39 PM »
When will Snow Water Equivalent maximum be reached this year?

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 19 February 2020


Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive,

SCE is wobbling up and down at around 1SD below average, wih a significant drop on the 18-19 Feb.

SWE has a kink downwards on the 19th Feb - first dip since the snowfall season got underway

Has the max in Eurasia happened?

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2020, 12:08:57 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,743,870 km2 as at 19 February 2020

7 days after the average date of minimum, a daily sea ice extent GAIN. Now maybe the 18th Feb is the minimum (16.72 million km2). Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent gain on this day 24 k, 12 k more than the last 10 years' average gain of 12 k,
- Extent is 0.77 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.10 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.20 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.05 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 7 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

19
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 20, 2020, 11:39:37 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,759,291 km2(February 19, 2020)

[/i]
- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 4 k, 6 k less than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 10k,
- Extent loss to date 15.59 million km2, 0.42 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.01 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 566 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 551 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 224 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 10 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.8% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 1 day to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2020, 11:23:23 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,984,579 km2(February 19, 2020)

Current maximum 2020 is still 14.03 million km2 on the 9th February.

- Extent gain on this day 29 k, 7 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,020 k, 529 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,491 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 206 k more than 2017
- Extent is 28 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 20 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.32 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: February 19, 2020, 08:05:04 PM »
Young, single people always think they are different and have the only perspective in the world.

Until they marry, have a family and get taken over by the realities of life.

Then they start spewing out the same old bullshit they decried when they were young and single.

The more they rant, the more they have to retract.

That is life.
and get taken over by the realities of life.

When I was young,
- When I was young, I was told that I should try 2 or 3 jobs at least until I found an occupation that might suit me for the long-term,
- When I was young, after 1 year's hard saving I had enough deposit saved to buy my first little  house,
- When I was young we were pretty sure a permanent job was a permanent job,
- When I was young we were pretty sure that our standard of living would get better as the years went by,
- When I was young Planet Earth was a safe place.

So what have the young got now? The certainty that things are going to get worse and may not get better. The only uncertainty is how rotten is it going to get.

Such unwarranted complacency beggars belief.

Now I am old I can merely be a witness.
But if I was young ! Ah- the difficulty would be to restrain myself merely to non-violent civil disobedience.

22
PIOMAS Volume & Thickness as at 15 February 2020

I attach graphs of volume & thickness for
- total arctic seas,
- the High Arctic Seas -i.e. the 7 seas of the main Arctic Ocean (excludes Barents & Greenland)

You can see average thickness will continue to climb even when volume has maxed - area declining on the fringes that have mainly thin ice.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (mid Feb 2020)
« on: February 19, 2020, 07:20:01 PM »
This person always does "have use for the updated regional data files" from Wipneus:

PIOMAS Volume as at 15 February 2020  19,669 km3

The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Volume gain in 1st week of Feb well above average, 2nd week well below.

2019 volume stays at 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- 2,289 km3 above 2017,
-  1,022 km3 above 2018,
-      18 km3 above the 2010's average,
and less than 2019 by a reduced 255 km3.

Not really a surprise that volume gain in Feb to date was so mixed, given the similar story for both area and extent.
_______________________________________________________________

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 19, 2020, 04:12:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,855,739  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,855,739    km2      
 183,900    km2   >   2010's average.
 86,420    km2   >   2019
-343,523    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     25    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__     4    k   gain
 Other Seas___     9    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Daily gain of 25 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 184 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 86 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 344 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.

25
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: February 19, 2020, 03:33:57 PM »
In addition to processing error, correct interpretation of GRACE, & GRACE-FO, data must also consider issue such as atmospheric river events, local ice discharge events (such as from the Thwaites Ice Tongue), and isostatic round (see the linked references):
I have checked to see if the GRACE-FO data has been recalibrated - the answer is no.

The GRACE-FO raw data is processed as follows.......

http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/corrections
Quote
Corrections and Auxiliary Products
A number of corrections and reductions are applied to the Level-2 spherical harmonics to generate Level-3 products that represent variations of the Earth's surface masses as accurately as possible. These post-processed Level-2 coefficients, denoted as Level-2B products, are provided as an additional data set for users who wish to undertake surface mass inversion starting from spherical harmonic coefficients by themselves.

The Level-2B products as well as individual data sets and models used during the post-processing steps mentioned below are available here.

Mean Field
GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-3 products represent mass anomalies, i.e., positive or negative variations about a long-term mean gravity field of the Earth. Essentially, the choice of this mean field is arbitrary, since using a different mean field only introduces a constant bias to the time series of mass anomalies. However, when comparing these Level-3 products to other data or models, all time series should refer to the same reference epoch.

All Level-2B/Level-3 products currently available at GravIS refer to a long-term mean field calculated as unweighted average of the 156 available GFZ RL06 GSM products in the period from 2002/04 up to and including 2016/08.

Anisotropic Filtering
In order to optimally separate signal and noise in the GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 data, filtering is necessary. Due to the observation geometry with its pure along-track ranging on polar orbits GRACE and GRACE-FO gravity fields reveal highly anisotropic error characteristics. An adequate filter technique to account for this is the decorrelation method by Kusche et al. (2009), named DDK, which is deduced from a regularization approach using signal and error information in terms of variance and covariance matrices. The filtering is applied in the spectral domain by multiplying the filter matrix to the unfiltered spherical harmonic (SH) coefficients (residual with respect to a mean field). This method has been adapted by Horvath et al. (2018) taking into account the temporal variations of the error variances and covariances, namely VDK filtering.

Hence, our Level-2B products are optionally decorrelated and smoothed with an adaptive filter that explicitly takes into account the error covariance information of the corresponding Level-2 product. We provide the following variants of Level-2B products: filtered with VDK2, VDK3, and VDK5 as well as unfiltered (NFIL) solutions. These variants are distinguishable by respective strings in the product file names.
C20 Time Series
The spherical harmonic coefficient of degree 2 and order 0 (C20) is related to the flattening of the Earth. Since it is known that monthly GRACE estimates of C20 are affected by spurious systematic effects (e.g. Cheng & Ries, 2017), the C20 coefficients and their formal errors are replaced by estimates derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations that are regarded to be more reliable.

Here, we use a C20 time series processed at GFZ (König et al., 2019) that is based on the six geodetic satellites LAGEOS-1 and -2, AJISAI, Stella, Starlette, and LARES (starting from March 2012) and uses the same background models and standards as applied during GFZ GRACE/GRACE-FO processing, including the Atmosphere and Ocean De-aliasing model AOD1B.

GIA Correction
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) denotes the surface deformation of the solid Earth (lithosphere and mantle) caused by ice-mass redistribution over the last 100,000 years, dominated by the termination of the last glacial cycle. Due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to mass redistribution between the ice sheets and the ocean, the Earth's gravity field is affected by long term secular trends mainly in previously glaciated regions such as North America, Fennoscandia and Antarctica. Moreover, also coefficients of low degrees and orders are affected.

The Level-2B/Level-3 products provided here are corrected using a GIA model based on ICE-5G ice load history (Peltier, 2004) as applied to the 3D-Viscoelastic Lithosphere and Mantle Model VILMA (Martinec, 2000; Klemann et al., 2008).

I downloaded the PNAS AIS & GIS papers from Rignot et al, together with the spreadsheets included, last year. Fascinating stuff. What I found fascinating was that the Net Antarctic Mass Loss is the relatively small difference between SMB addition (snowfall) and ice mass loss.
(see graph attached).

The spreadsheet also showed that annual SMB addition averaged circa 2,100 GT per annum over the 39 years analysed, but during that time increased by at least 200 GT per annum.

The SMB simulated by MARv3.10  looks like annual SMB increase is now circa 2,500 GT per annum. (see 2nd graph attached)

This means that for the NET MASS BALANCE of the AIS to reduce at an accelerated rate (as it has), Ice Mass Loss has had to increase at an even greater rate.

I was hoping to compare basin data from GRACE-FO with PNAS basin data (which has area in KM")- BUT
- GRACE-FO uses 25 basins,
-PNAS uses 27 basins.
The match is close but not exact (sea map attached) 

ps: The same problem applies to the GIS


So all I can do is use what I've got - i.e. GRACE-FO monthly data and SMB graphs from http://climato.be/cms/index.php?climato=the-2020-melt-season-over-antarctica-as-simulated-by-marv3-10

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 19, 2020, 10:56:03 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,719,417 km2 as at 18 February 2020

5 days after the average date of minimum, yet another daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 18th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 31 k, 26 k more than the last 10 years' average LOSS of 5 k,
- Extent is 0.79 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.08 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.18 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.06 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 6 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

27
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 19, 2020, 10:38:43 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,763,545 km2(February 18, 2020)

Sea ice extent has changed from 23rd lowest to 18th lowest in the last three days.

- 2019 is 18th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 34 k, 25 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 9k,
- Extent loss to date 15.58 million km2, 0.42 million (2.6%) LESS than the 10 year average of 16.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 564 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 187 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.7% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 2 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.72 million km2, 0.57 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 19, 2020, 10:22:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,955,872 km2(February 18, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 3 k, 0 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,992 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,469 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 225 k more than 2017
- Extent is 7 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 21 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.

29
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: February 18, 2020, 10:01:44 PM »
Checked the data before posting - could well be measurement errorsin the first month or 2 of GRACE-FO results.

Maybe they have gone back & recalibrated - will have a look tomorrow.

30
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 18, 2020, 09:13:35 PM »
On the other hand.....

Friday's Weather Map May Be Blank From Coast to Coast
Friday's weather across the Lower 48 is forecast to be so quiet that weather maps are showing up virtually blank. You can see for yourself in the map . Other than perhaps a few showers along the Southeast coast, it's as if the continental United States has a massive deflector shield for rain or snow Friday.
https://www.wunderground.com/article/safety/winter/news/2020-02-18-blank-weather-map-explained

31
After exactly one month, new data from GRACE-FO
Updated GRACE-FO ice mass fromftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace/GravIS/GFZ/Level-3/ICE/GIS

Last measurement date mid-December 2019.
12 month ice mass loss 480 GT, i.e. 1.33 mm sea level rise.

Note the precipitous loss in ice sheet mass in the south/central coast of West Greenland (basin 306) since around 2017.

In the last month a net increase of 22GT in Greenland Ice Mass, perhaps a bit less than the increase in SMB for that month. So maybe glacial melt was continuing at the coastal fringe.

I so so wish DMI would give numerical data on SMB change, because they have it, updated daily.

32
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: February 18, 2020, 07:43:15 PM »
After exactly 1 month, new data from GRACE-FO.

Updated GRACE-FO ice mass @ http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/antarctica - courtesy of Germany.

Last measurement date mid-December 2019.
12 month ice mass loss a mere 134 GT, i.e. 0.5 mm sea level rise, much lower than for November, despite a record surface melt started in mid November, on the fringe of Antarctica.

see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg244871.html#msg244871)

It must have snowed in the interior?

33
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: February 18, 2020, 06:47:08 PM »
An enquiry from Claire O’Neill via Twitter:

Quote
Does anyone have good data on current permafrost melt rates? Sorry to ask so early on a Sunday!

Any suggestions?

Start with the latest IPCC Report, the Special Report on Oceans and the Cryosphere from last year. 

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/
There are studies suggesting things are happening somewhat faster than in the IPCC reports.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01313-4
Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release
The sudden collapse of thawing soils in the Arctic might double the warming from greenhouse gases released from tundra, warn Merritt R. Turetsky and colleagues.


Merritt R. Turetsky,
Benjamin W. Abbott, Miriam C. Jones, Katey Walter Anthony, David Olefeldt, Edward A. G. Schuur,
Charles Koven, A. David McGuire, Guido Grosse, Peter Kuhry, Gustaf Hugelius, David M. Lawrence, Carolyn Gibson & A. Britta K. Sannel
 

34
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 06:25:13 PM »
FEAR strengthens - GOLD up 20 bucks to over $1600 oz.

Economics 1.01 - Free Markets work the best as knowledge of the market conditions is available to all.

35
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 03:40:17 PM »
The Financial Markets?

Has Apple "blown the gaff" with its warning on production and sales?

Has the loathed, baleful spectre of fear re-entered the marketplace?

Is greed slinking away (muttering under his breath "open the factories, open the shops, it's only 2.5% fatal, and mostly only the old and the already poorly who get wacked")?

Crude down $1+, gold up nearly 10 bucks. as at 9.30 a.m. EST

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 18, 2020, 02:56:35 PM »
UK Blah-blah
- "net-zero carbon by 2050,
- World Leader in reducing CO2 emissions,
etc, etc.....

UK REALITY
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/18/renewables-barely-feature-building-programme-schools-solar-panels
Renewables barely feature in building programme for 500 schools
Quote
only a handful of the 500-plus schools being rebuilt or refurbished across the county through the government’s £4.3bn priority school building programme are installing renewable energy technology – and the Department for Education’s (DfE’s) recommended designs do not include renewables.

The pathetic bunch of clowns who presume to govern the UK for the next 5 years just don't get it. This oven-ready climate emergency can't be solved with a jolly catch-phrase.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 18, 2020, 09:45:14 AM »
Any ideas on who planted this Not-A-Forest?
When it was planted?
Terry
As KiwiGriff wrote, the trees were probably to be logged for mainly woodpulp 25 years after planting. So they are less than 25 years old, but after logging replanting would have taken place.

But this has been going on for a few hundred years, and you can blame a man called Gutenberg.

Quote
The Gutenberg Bible (also known as the 42-line Bible, the Mazarin Bible or the B42) was among the earliest major books printed using mass-produced movable metal type in Europe. It marked the start of the "Gutenberg Revolution" and the age of printed books in the West. It is an edition of the Latin Vulgate printed in the 1450s by Johannes Gutenberg in Mainz, in present-day Germany.


As the demand for books grew, so did the demand for paper. The natural forest started to be replanted with plantations.

As coal mining developed, conifers were harvested for pit-props, at least until the 1920's, adding to the transformation of Germany's forests.

A similar process happened in parts of the UK. Now there is pressure to increase the variety of trees in the forests for biodiversity and increase their attractiveness as social amenities.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 18, 2020, 09:19:21 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :   16,750,273 km2 as at 17 February 2020

5 days after the average date of minimum, yet another strong daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 17th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 57 k, 37 k more than the last 10 years' average LOSS of 20 k,
- Extent is 0.80 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.12 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.25 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.04 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 5 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

39
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 18, 2020, 09:01:43 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 2,797,521 km2(February 17, 2020)

- 2019 is 19th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 30 k, 15 k more than the last 10 years' average extent loss of 15k,
- Extent loss to date 15.55 million km2, 0.44 million (2.7%) LESS than the 10 year average of 15.99 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 573 k more than 2017 on this day,
- Extent is 527 k more than 2018 on this day,
- Extent is 222 k more than 2019 on this day,
and Extent on this day is more than in 9 of the years in the 1980's and 1990's,

- 99.6% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 3 days to the average minimum date of 20 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.74 million km2, 0.59 million MORE than the record low on 1st March 2017 of 2.15 million km2.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 18, 2020, 08:46:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,952,752 km2(February 17, 2020)

- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 27 k, 22 k more than the average loss (of the last 10 years) of 5 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,989 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,466 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 230 k more than 2017
- Extent is 26 k more than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 22 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.4 to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

41
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 17, 2020, 05:44:57 PM »
Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.
It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.

42
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 17, 2020, 05:08:36 PM »
From a long article in the Guardian a quote on the situation in JAPAN

Quote
There is concern, too, over the growing number of reported cases in Japan involving people who have not visited China recently or knowingly had direct contact with people arriving from the country.

“We agreed that the present situation represents the early stage of a domestic outbreak. This could progress further,” said Takaji Wakita, the chief of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, after the first meeting of a taskforce at the prime minister’s office.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-japan-braces-for-hundreds-more-cases-as-another-china-city-locked-down

But the Financial Markets saying everything is good & getting better

Bloomberg headlines...
Quote
Europe Stocks Rise With U.S. Futures on China Lift: Markets Wrap

4 HOURS AGO
JPMorgan Says Record Highs in European Stocks Can Last and Widen

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 17, 2020, 04:32:35 PM »
I guess i have to call them tomorrow!

The machine is answering the phone. I tried it several times, no person was reachable.

So i wrote an email. I wrote they lost my vote for being that reactionary. Very formal, not too lengthy.

However, my vote goes to Die Linke anyway. ;)
I suspect they are surprised at the size of the media storm they have created.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 17, 2020, 03:30:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,813,605 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,813,605    km2      
 211,735    km2   >   2010's average.
 109,561    km2   >   2019
-336,393    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -7    k   loss
 Other Seas___     11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______    -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 2 k, 47 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 45 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 212 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 110 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 336 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996

45
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: February 17, 2020, 02:58:20 PM »
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way" from A Tale of Two Cities, Charles Dickens.

The Future We Choose, a new book by the architects of the Paris climate accords, offers two contrasting visions for how the world might look in thirty years

the best of times
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/15/best-case-scenario-2050-climate-crisis-future-we-choose-christiana-figueres-tom-rivett-carnac
‘Air is cleaner than before the Industrial Revolution’: a best case scenario for the climate in 2050

the worst of times
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/15/worst-case-scenario-2050-climate-crisis-future-we-choose-christiana-figueres-tom-rivett-carnac
‘The only uncertainty is how long we’ll last’: a worst case scenario for the climate in 2050

Meanwhile, the IPCC clings to the 2100 scenario.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 17, 2020, 01:02:02 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :  16,807,111 km2 as at 16 February 2020

4 days after the average date of minimum, a strong daily sea ice extent loss. Now maybe the 16th Feb is the minimum. Then again, maybe not.

- On this day extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 56 k, 59 k less than the last 10 years' average GAIN of 3 k,
- Extent is 0.87 million km2 greater than 2017,
- Extent is 1.15 million km2 greater than 2018,
- Extent is 0.32 million km2 greater than 2019,
- Extent is 0.001 million km2 less than the 2010's average,

- 100% of the average ice loss of the season done, 4 days after the average minimum date of 12 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for the minimum. The first table attached - projections - has  use in that you can see in which years the melting season is over i.e. most years.
____________________________________________________________________

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 16, 2020, 10:10:44 PM »
From what I have seen elsewhere this group is green affiliated. But I have not checked it out myself.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/feb/16/german-court-tesla-gigafactory-forest
Quote
the complaint brought by a local environmentalist group called the Grüne Liga Brandenburg (Green League of Brandenburg).

https://www.grueneliga-brandenburg.de/index.php

I can't find anything about Tesla on their website. Anyone going to ask them "wots it all abaht, cos I dunno.?"

GREEN LIGA Landesverband Brandenburg eV
House of nature
Lindenstrasse 34
14467 Potsdam
Telephone: 0331/2015520 Fax: 0331/2015522

Email: potsdam @ grueneliga-brandenburg. de

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:28:47 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) - 3 Graphs

On the Atlantic Front the winds and warmth are producing area losses in the Barents and Kara Seas, while a contrary wind is encouraging ice export into the Greenland Sea.

Might last a few days more.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:14:35 PM »

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.
The freezing thread is where one hopes to find the whys and wherefores of what is happening. You might be lucky if you take a look.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:12:04 PM »
Now that we are near the end of freezing season, I've noticed there are huge swings in daily extent gains, and even losses. Why is the behaviour of sea ice extent so wildly inconsistent around this time of year?

Why would you expect it to be stable? The ice can at this moment only expand into open ocean, where currents and contrary winds can and will cause large fluctuations. By far the biggest difference in extent from one day to another, and indeed from one year to another, during these winter months, is due to the vagaries of winds and have little or nothing to do with temperatures.

So, would I be correct in saying that the wind is blowing the ice around, which affects sea ice dispersion (and therefore extent) while sea ice volume remains relatively stable?
Yes, in the peripheral seas, though above freezing temperatures are being brought into the Southern Barents and Kara sea on occasion. In the main Arctic Ocean, temperatures are still well below that necessary for further ice thickening. Hence volume will likely max out in April.

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