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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2019, 05:11:20 PM »
NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average):- 4,124,863  km2(October 15, 2019)
Analysis as for JAXA data


NSIDC Area data is still lagging behind NSIDC & JAXA Extent, so I thought it might be a good idea to post this analysis again.

On this day,
- Area gain on this day 57k, 46k less than the 10 year average of 103k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 1,215 k, 439 k (26.5%) less than the average gain to date of 1,654 k.
- Area is still 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area  is 189 k more than 2012, 95 k MORE than 2016, and 38k MORE than 2018, though these amount are steadily decreasing,
- 16.6% of the average freezing done, 148 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 12.45 million km2, lowest in the satellite record (0.18 million km2 less than the current record low in 2015-16).
____________________________________________________________
Outlook ??

If Area gain says well below average then in a week area will be lowest, i.e. all extent and area measures will be at record lows for the day. However, future 2016 gains were also very low, as can be seen from the graphs attached.

All depends on how long slow refreeze is maintained.  __________________________________________________

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:26:30 PM »

From 2016 through 2019, Argentina’s government awarded contracts for 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity, helping make wind and solar the country’s cheapest unsubsidized sources of energy. Roughly 5 GW of this capacity is already either in operation or under construction, attracting nearly $7.5 billion in new investment and creating more than 11,000 new jobs.

How is it "unsubsidized" when the government is footing the bill?
Terry

Because the income from selling the juice to Joe Public should recoup the capital cost exactly as a private sector mob invest capital to generate revenue. The proof (or not) will be in the pudding a few years down the line.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: October 15, 2019, 09:04:50 PM »
Things have changed.

The difference in JAXA Extent 2019 from 2018 reduced from 545k on the 14 September to just 243k on 2nd October. This pushed the date of a straight line projection of a new 365 day average record low from early January 2020 to early May 2020.

But since that date the very low extent 2019 extent gains has increased the difference with 2018 to 597k by the 14th October. So the date of a new record low is back to early January.

There is 136 k to go to a new record 365 day low, (9,683,735 km2), with the daily change on 14th October at 1,589 k.

Outlook- from this date 2018 daily gain was fairly high to very high in the next month.
IFF (if & only if) 2019 extent gains are generally at or below average, we could see a record 365 day average low late in this year.

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________
ps: If what is happening with extent this month had happened last month - there would have been many headlines

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 15, 2019, 04:08:13 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,942,783 km2(October 14, 2019)i

- Extent gain on this day 62k, 60k less than the average gain of 122k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 979 k, 764 k (43.9%) less than the average gain to date of 1,743 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record (51 days his year),
- Extent is 159 k less than 2012, 597 k less than 2016, 394 k less than 2007, and 580 k less than 2018,
- 17.7% of the season done, 149 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.04 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.84 million km2. It is still really far too early in the freezing season to make such a projection, but it is increasingly impressive as each day passes.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly), apart from a blob of cold over the pole. This suggests that daily extent gain will increase but below average.

Extent gains well below average  - how long can this last?
__________________________________________________
ps:- If extent gain from now is average, i.e. slow re-freeze stops and reverts to "normal", the 2019 October average will be a record low by more than 200k.

JAXA Data -    October Monthly Averages in Km2
2012 Actual    5,628,500
2016 Actual    5,862,319
2017 Actual    6,522,898
2018 Actual    5,916,648
2007 Actual    5,938,496
2019 Projection      5,413,747 

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 14, 2019, 09:21:59 PM »
One thing is for sure - the linear trends of PIOMAS volume & NSIDC Area can't go on for many more years.

If they did continue, average September thickness in the year 2030 would be 25 centimetres.

See attached
________________________

In my work on deviations from the average, I came up with the following.

The climate / ice system is complex, but all the processes depend on well-known basic physics. It is the interaction that creates the complexity. And physics imposes limits. E.g. If carbon sinks completely failed, i.e. all CO2 emissions stayed in the atmosphere, the current rate of emissions would produce a maximum annual increase in CO2 ppm of around 5 ppm.

So the deviations from the average trend in a year of extent, area and volume are also limited by the current limits to variations in climate and all the other variables affecting ice loss and gain.

So my speculation that belongs to me is that the maximum variations - both more & less - in the last 40 years are a good guide to the absolute minimum and maximum September minimum possible in the next year.

For Extent that suggests the following ranges....
- a 2020 NSIDC September Average Extent minimum of around 4.3 million km2 +20%/-30%,
- a 2020 PIOMAS  September Average Volume  minimum of around 4.0 thousand KM3 +25%/-40% million WHOOPS.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 14, 2019, 06:36:25 PM »
Jim...

The small print says copyright on anything sent to WUWT belongs to them.

So I drag through a load of data, do my analysis, include it in my post & it belongs to that bunch of..... Then they can change it, twist it, whatever they want? And they can prevent me from posting the correct data & analysis - anywhere, including the ASIF?

No way. People should be warned to check the copyright policies of blogs, especially those that are anathema to people considering posting contradiction & counter arguments.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 11:14:17 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!
Thanks, Charles.

& here is a thought. If at maximum gain is less than average by 9.3% - we will be stunned.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 13, 2019, 09:19:37 PM »
I would have thought the open / closed / in transit status of shipping (e.g. hydrocarbon exports ) would give a good clue...

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-162.8/centery:68.5/zoom:2

as an example
Not any more. The ships have changed & are changing...

There is already a fleet of LNG tankers with considerable ice-breaking capability and it is growing.

Putin has the dream of year-round shipping and his ice-breaker fleet is being refurbished with new monsters on the drawing board & under construction to keep the route open & escort shipping.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 13, 2019, 08:44:10 PM »
By the way, I still think that endless discussions on what charts that use extent & area are best to predict an ice-free Arctic are a waste of time because:-
- CO2 ppm is increasing at an accelerating rate (looks like will at 3 ppm per year this year)
- There is evidence that the Carbon Sinks are not doing so well, (recent post by AbruptSLR re the Southern Ocean & some work I did on carbon sinks c.f. emissions and CO" increases),
- Global Surface ar temps at record levels in an ENSO neutral year plus scary WMO report on recent trends.

BUT - I read the NSIDC talking about a hiatus in extent loss & I think it is WRONG.. Even though they emphasise caveats & the need to look at longer-term trends, it is God's gift to the denier industry.

So here is a 2nd post about it.
____________________________________________

By why stop with your so-called exaggerated years in one direction only?  If your are going to selectively discard data points, why not toss out the high years of 2000 and 2006 also?

Indeed, why not? So I googled to refresh my hazy memory of a Uni course on Mathematical Statistics to fin the standard methodology for identification of outliers. (That course was so long ago for analysis we did it by hand on mechanical machine Babbage would have recognised.)

It got wider - seems to be a big thing in machine learning (AI ?):-

https://machinelearningmastery.com/how-to-use-statistics-to-identify-outliers-in-data/
Machine Learning Mastery
How to Use Statistics to Identify Outliers in Data

Sometimes a dataset can contain extreme values that are outside the range of what is expected and unlike the other data. These are called outliers and often machine learning modeling and model skill in general can be improved by understanding and even removing these outlier values.

- An outlier is an unlikely observation in a dataset and may have one of many causes.
-Standard deviation can be used to identify outliers in Gaussian or Gaussian-like data.
- The interquartile range can be used to identify outliers in data regardless of the distribution.

I followed the recognised  interquartile range method using absolute deviations from the "expected" value from the linear regression used by NSIDC & me in these graphs

For NSIDC Extent it told me to dump an extra year, the very high extent value in 1996.

I did they same analysis or PIOMAS September volume, and it told me to dump 3 years, all very low values, 1981, 1982, and 2012.

The answers re all the same -
- there is barely any change from the linear regression with or without the "outlier years",
- there is no "hiatus" in the steady loss of Arctic Sea Ice extent as implied on the 3rd October  NSIDC analysis (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Quote
Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 05:05:19 PM »
The JAXA webste is back on line, but no updates, and by the images being sent from Japan, maybe for some time. Hagibis certainly walloped 'em. So here is a substitute again........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-    NSIDC – TOTAL Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT March Maximum – in km2 million  4,992,633

Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 40k, 61k less than the 10 year average of 101 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (39.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 204 k more than 2012,
- 13.7% of the season done, 151 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.55 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 12, 2019, 12:48:45 AM »
NSIDC appear to be a bit supportive of a "hiatus" in Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

Who am I, a mere observer to disagree - but I do...

Evidence 1
Let us assume that 2007 & 2012 are outliers - i.e. caused by a combination of climatic occurrences that converged to produce the maximum possible ice loss at that time. If so, it is legitimate to exclude those years from the data.

The result  (see graph attached, that has both sets of data, i.e. with & without 2012 and 2007),
- a far more orderly progression in a downwards direction.
- no real sign of a hiatus
- a slightly better linear trend R2 value.,
- average annual loss reduced by 5k (82 to 77k)

Note well:- all I did was tell the spreadsheet to make the graphs & add the trend lines. No manipulation by yours truly
However, evidence 1 smells to cherry-picking (apologies). I prefer to think on physical factors that are slowing down the decrease of minimum September, such as more difficulty of ocean and atmospheric heat to really affect the CAB for different reasons (bathymetry; snow cover; melting momentum starting well entered the season; thicker ice laying there).

I thought hard before excluding 2007 & 2012 from the data. Nevertheless, I think it is more valid to look at trends in ordinary years - i.e. excluding exaggerated effects. That is my defence - but all we have to do is wait & see (just a few years).
__________________________________________________
EDIT: In early November I will give my open water graphs an airing. They will include the Aug-Sept-Oct averages to give a better view

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:56:56 PM »
NSIDC appear to be a bit supportive of a "hiatus" in Arctic Sea Ice Loss.

Here is their spiel about it from Oct 3  https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (Graph also attached)

Quote
Within the overall decline, it is notable that the most recent 13 years, from 2007 to 2019, have shown very little decline (Figure 3b). Both 2007 and 2012 were extreme low extent years, and variability has been high in this period. However, an earlier 13 year period, 1999 to 2012, shows a rate of decline that is more than double the overall rate in the satellite record. This illustrates the challenge of extracting a quantitative rate of decline in a highly variable system like sea ice, and the benefits of looking at decadal, and not year-to-year variations. Our updates to our public analysis tool, Charctic now allows the user to see the decadal average trends as well as each year (Figure 3c).

Who am I, a mere observer to disagree - but I do...

Evidence 1
Let us assume that 2007 & 2012 are outliers - i.e. caused by a combination of climatic occurrences that converged to produce the maximum possible ice loss at that time. If so, it is legitimate to exclude those years from the data.

The result  (see graph attached, that has both sets of data, i.e. with & without 2012 and 2007),
- a far more orderly progression in a downwards direction.
- no real sign of a hiatus
- a slightly better linear trend R2 value.,
- average annual loss reduced by 5k (82 to 77k)

Note well:- all I did was tell the spreadsheet to make the graphs & add the trend lines. No manipulation by yours truly

Evidence 2
All the data now indicates that the October Average is likely to be a record low, even if area and extent gain revert back to average levels.

Evidence 3
There is likely to be a new record low 365 day average in early to middle 2020

So my statement that belongs to me is that 2007 and 2012 distort the trends to the extent that they create the illusion of a hiatus where none exists..



13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 01:19:45 PM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

Lovely figure gerontocrat
You can see it every day gradually morphing on the Sea Ice Extent & Area Data thread.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 12:14:12 PM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:23 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 October 2019 :   22,792,219  km2

An Antarctic Sea Ice loss above average and an Arctic Sea Ice extent loss results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record by a greater amount. That's lowest for 136 days this year.

- extent loss 47k, 118k less than the average GAIN of 71 k.
- extent 74 k below 2018, 229k below 2016, 439 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.54 million km2, 0.91 million km2 (12.2%) less than the average gain of 7.46 million km2 by this day,
-on average 82.6% of extent gain done and 26 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.36 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.72 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a week or two longer. (another hostage to fortune)
_____________________________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2019, 08:20:53 PM »
A few days ago, NSIDC reported a 70k loss. Being in October it has to be a rather rare occurrence. Anyone who knows how common externt losses are in October?
At work I have to use Excel  ::) From ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx , basic previous day - current day calculation & color shading, looks like 2nd biggest drop measured in Oct
Always take the NSIDC data Oct 1 & Oct 2 with a pinch of salt - there is a big adjustment on Oct 1 -from NSIDC changing the mask and then sometimes adjustments to the adjustment.

November 1 will likely be the same.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: October 09, 2019, 04:35:38 PM »
sigmetnow picked up the latest lunacy from the USA EPA

Here it is & my reply. Also sent this stuff to The Guardian & the UK Extinction Rebellion Press Office
______________________________
Re: Oil and Gas Issues

From: Sigmetnow on Today at 02:19:07 AM

"There Is Not a Climate Crisis': Trump Administration Spouts Brazen Bullshit to Justify Arctic Drilling"

...attorneys with the Sierra Club stumbled upon this tidbit:

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”

This text was included five times in this section of the final environmental impact statement in response to public comments legal group Trustees for Alaska submitted. All the All group’s comments revolved around the role drilling in the Alaskan refuge could have in making climate change worse.

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325/
___________________________________________
gerontocrat

That might be what is required for a court to set aside the Government's impact statement by accepting the fact of climate change and its impact. There is precedent for such a judgement.

The reality or not of climate change might end up in the US Supreme Court.
____________________________________________________
E-Mail Sent
<gerontocrat@gmail.com>
13:57 (1 hour ago)
to press (Extinction Rebellion)

If you don't want to believe that there is a war going on between the people and the powerful, don't read on...

...... " Listen To The Scientists"

This is the latest from Trump's Environment Protection Agency in their final Environmental Impact Statement justifying resuming drilling in The Arctic , and I quote...

“The BLM does not agree that the proposed development is inconsistent with maintaining a livable planet (i.e., there is not a climate crisis). The planet was much warmer within the past 1,000 years, prior to the Little Ice Age, based on extensive archaeological evidence (such as farming in Greenland and vineyards in England). This warmth did not make the planet unlivable; rather, it was a time when societies prospered.”
As the Sierra Club stated...

This is the first time that the Sierra Club and its partners have identified the use of such blatant climate-denying language in an official federal environmental analysis. Government officials, including Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler and even President Donald Trump, have said such things before, but an environmental impact statement is more than words. It’s the legal support for a project. ...
Sources:-

Arctic Sea Ice Forum...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg232459.html#msg232459

https://earther.gizmodo.com/there-is-not-a-climate-crisis-trump-administration-spo-1838444325

I think the Extinction Rebellion people need to know how really bad it really is.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2019, 03:50:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,775,642 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,775,642    km2      
-349,513    km2   <   2010's average.
 45,734    km2   >   2018
-1,315,720    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    3    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -4    k   loss
Central Seas__    6    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    7    k   gain
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -21    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 3k, 66 k less than the 2010's average of 69 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has retreated by 350k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 has still retreated even more, now 48k less than 2019.
Also area is still 73k more than 2007 - but greatly reduced.

The plume of warm air from the North Atlantic that headed for the Barents is now closing up. It penetrated the Barents, Greenland and Central Arctic Seas for a few days.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Still no change to the basic comment..  (So it's repetitive, but so is the the overall  weather outlook)

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still well warmer than usual (circa +3 celsius temp overall anomaly).

Area gains far below average - how long can this last?
______________________________________________

19
Gavin makes a valid point in his attached Tweet; however, I note that the impact of ice meltwater from both the GIS and the AIS distort the meaning of the SSTs indicated in many of the cool regions shown on his graphic:
As is shown on the attached graphic from the GRACE-FO data
( http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/antarctica ) - interactive map

and as I extracted from the ASCII file they provide.
____________________________________________
Note: The German Partners in the GRACE-FO project ( Helmholtz Centre Potsdam
GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences) are being very helpful in getting data out to non-scientists like me - instant answers to my e-mails.. I must write & say thanks.

JPL/NASA seem all about the scientists - never an answer to queries. But maybe they are getting strife from Trump acolytes.

20
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Ice Sheet
« on: October 08, 2019, 06:38:42 PM »
GRACE-FO Data to July 2019 ... http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de/antarctica

It looks like GRACE-FO data on ice sheets mass changes will now come out at around the 6th of the month, with data 3 months in arrears courtesy of Germany.

So here are some graphs & a map of the 25 drainage basins- also look at the map on the link.

Ice mass loss is mostly all about one relatively small patch on the west coast - i.e. the WAIS, but part of the EAIS is waking up.
_________________________________________
Noe: Ignore the up & down blip in late 2016 early 2017- I think that is when the 1st GRACE satellite started to go wobbly being ages past its design life.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:36:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,772,152 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,772,152    km2      
-284,422    km2   <   2010's average.
 40,449    km2   >   2018
-1,245,511    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    14    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 14k, 43 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has retreated by 248k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 retreated even more.
Also area is still 121k more than 2007.

I thought a plume of warm air was heading for the Barents. It seems to have arrived. It is also penetrating the CAB for a day or 2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
No real change....low daily gain continues.
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual - at least for the next few days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 07:48:01 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 30 September 2019  4.568  km3 '000
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Volume loss in the first half of September mostly below average, gain in the 2nd half mostly above average.

But 2019 volume is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record, by 601 km3 (15%) ABOVE 2012, and 221 k (5%) below 2011 the 3rd lowest, and less than 2018 by 549 km3 (11%).


_______________________________________________________________
The last table is a look at projections to the next maximum. Far too early to take it seriously, although it is obvious that 2012-13 disappears from the minimum maximum possibilities, replaced by 2016-17.

2012 shown again to be an outlier
Graph vol-4 shows the impressive decadal loss trend

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 03:49:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,741,629   km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,741,629    km2      
-213,527    km2   <   2010's average.
 14,687    km2   >   2018
-1,130,981    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    22    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 22k, 24 k less than the 2010's average of 46 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 4 days. ESS lost significant area in the last 3 days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 01:59:19 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 5 October 2019 :   22,779,042   km2

Despite Antarctic Sea Ice losses at a near standstill, well below average Arctic Sea Ice extent loss GAIN results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record (by a smidgeon). That's for 132 days this year.

- extent 58 k below 2018, 251 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.53 million km2, 0.69 million km2 (9.5%) less than the average gain of 7.22 million km2 by this day,
-on average 80.0% of extent gain done and 30 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.59 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.95 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 30 days to maximum.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Global Sea Ice Extent on my birthday was 3.8 million km2 less than the 1980's average. That is 15 times the area of the UK. That is a lot of open water where that used to be covered with ice.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 01:17:55 PM »
Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water?

Yes it does. Basically there is only outgoing radiation now and it is in the way.
Yes indeed.
Where is the fog seen?
A bit off-topic, but it seems fog is quite important for re-freeze at this time of year..

Whre is the fog seen ? All over the place - attached is a non-fog photo from the MOSAIC project thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.0.html)- location about 85 N, 135 E (I think) north of the Laptev sea. It mentions frequency of foggy conditions, which implies a lot of open water, i.e. not a solid ice pack.

Also - there is a project about fog that connects with the MOSAIC project.
http://www.belmontforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/AFV.pdf
AFV: Arctic Fog Variability in a Warming Arctic and Its Impact on Maritime Human
Activities

Quote
Call: Arctic Observing and Research for Sustainability
Type of Project: Type 3 - Research Grant
Lead PI: Xianyao Chen, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Co-Leads:
David Atkinson, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Peiqing Guo, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
William Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada (and Dalhousie
University, Halifax, NS, Canada)
Francesco Tampieri, Institute of Atmospheric Science and Climate, Italian National Research
Council, Bologna, Italy
Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Jinping Zhao, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Sponsored by: NSERC, NSFC, CNR, NSF

Duration: 01 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2019
The rapid retreat of sea ice in the last two decades has led to increased extent and duration of the open-water season, and has opened up the possibility of a summertime ice-free Arctic by the
middle of this century. Increased water vapor arising from enhanced evaporation, together with
low surface temperature, drives possible associated changes in the occurrence of fog. An
enhanced fog regime presents scientific and operational challenges: it complicates analysis of
climate feedback mechanisms because of its strong effect on near-surface radiation balance; it
also complicates the anticipated rush to increased trans-polar commercial shipping activity.
Previous studies have suggested that fog events are related to regional and larger-scale
meteorological processes. However the current limited availability of observational
surface/satellite data and our limited understanding of fog-sea ice interactions hinder accurate
forecasting of fog. This project will undertake a multi-pronged investigation of fog occurrence
that includes field missions, modeling, and analysis of historical records. The region of focus
encompasses the marginal ice zone of the Chukchi Sea, Canada Basin, and the seas around
Svalbard. A primary objective is to improve fog-sea ice feedback understanding, leading to the
development of better simulation capacity for future fog patterns in these regions. Continuous
observations of fog in the Arctic require international collaboration; this project includes
participants from four nations. An anticipated legacy of this project is the expected scientific
guidance to support potential Arctic shipping activities.

This project also serves as an antecedent to the "Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate" (MOSAIC), an international effort to harness "sustained observations to understand climate-relevant processes of the Arctic Ocean climate system."

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 12:23:29 PM »
Yesterday was my birthday. 18 again.
Normal service will be gradually resumed as my hangover dissipates

27
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 04, 2019, 07:50:08 PM »
Meanwhile, in the US of A, the people might be suffering from floods - but the banks from duff mortgages? No, the Law gives them not so much of a loophole, more of a wide open barn door.

And oh yes, when it all goes wrong the taxpayer is on the hook.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/climate-change-could-impact-your-mortgage-even-if-you-live-nowhere-near-a-coast-2019-09-30
Banks increasingly unload flooded-out mortgages at taxpayer expense
Quote
Some banks are cutting their own climate-change exposure by selling riskier disaster-area mortgages to taxpayer-supported entities.

That puts the health of the mortgage market at risk, a potential repeat of the financial conditions at the root of the banking crisis a decade ago, a research paper published Monday argues.

The number and total value of flood insurance policies has been declining since 2006, meaning that households that purchased a property in coastal areas especially may be at increased risk of defaulting on their mortgages, the academic paper said. Commercial banks, including two of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders, JPMorgan Chase JPM, +1.19% and Wells Fargo WFC, +0.79%  , have the ability to price mortgages for flood risk, and by design they can securitize some of these loans, thereby spreading the risk to more parties.

But one of the more active ways banks unload climate-change and flooding risk is by reselling mortgage loans to Fannie Mae FNMA, +0.59% and Freddie Mac FMCC, +0.47% , which desire the liquidity, the paper says. These entities are the mortgage guarantors that are under tax-supported government control, though have been tagged by the Trump administration for a shift to the private sector. By rule, primarily because their mission is to expand homeownership, Fannie and Freddie cannot factor disaster-related risk, for instance living in a flood zone, into their mortgage pricing in the way that the commercial banks originating these loans can.

Absent change, the mispricing is only going to be aggravated, the paper notes, with $60 billion to $100 billion in new mortgages issued for coastal homes each year.

That harkens back to the start of the subprime lending crisis of 2008. On the plus side, the number of climate-change-linked mortgages is believed to be smaller than the pool of risky subprime mortgages that tainted the system 10 years ago. On the other hand, damaged properties could be lost forever to flooding, wind and storm surges, meaning there’s no underlying physical asset behind these compromised mortgages.

28
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 04, 2019, 07:15:34 PM »
Thusly, if Greenland melt has an impact on oceanic currents (and it definitely does) one would think the impact of seasonal meltflux across North America and Eurasia is actually even greater than that of Greenland.
One would think so, but as usual one would have to ignore the much bigger size of the North American continent (not to mention Eurasia), the various directions the meltwater can take due to the topography of the continental divides and of the surrounding seas, the sublimation, ground infiltration, and evaporation (and even damming and irrigation) that work to reduce the amount reaching the sea, the much higher temperatures of the meltwater, and probably other factors that diminish the effect of NA SWE, and make it not comparable to the Greenland figure which is a net figure of surface mass lost.
One could, if one desired so, to prove one's claims by analyzing river discharge into the various surrounding seas, and quantifying the effect. I hope one does so at some point.
Here we go again.
Went through all this a few months ago.
NORTH AMERICA
The conclusion was that not so much run-off goes directly into the Atlantic ocean at high latitudes. Here are the maps.
RUSSIA There might be more snow melting into the Arctic , but the Northern (Russian) Sea Route is opening up earlier and for longer.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 04, 2019, 03:54:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,680,114  km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,680,114    km2      
-183,774    km2   <   2010's average.
 16,685    km2   >   2018
-1,038,965    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas__    27    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    15    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 35k, 12 k less than the 2010's average of 47 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 3 days. ESS lost area on this day.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________
Question...
One of the recent posts on the freezing thread talked about foggy days preventing getting decent images over the Arctic.

Does fog - i.e. water vapour over the sea surface - slow down heat loss from the ocean that is still open water? I ask this as the models say the Arctic atmosphere is getting wetter, cmore cloudy and foggy days.

30
Below is a complete copy of a post by AbruptSLR, from which I quote

.....50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain,..............

But then again, Nebraska isn't in the Arctic.
__________________________________________________________
ps:
North America Snow Cover Extent back down to average (due to melt),
Eurasia Snow Cover Extent still going up strongly,

__________________________________________________________
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg231856.html#msg231856

Quote from: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2019, 10:55:10 PM

Edit: I note that consensus models project that with continuing global warming, rainfall will increase in the Arctic in coming decades; which will not only impact: Arctic sea ice extent, potential release of excess freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, glacial ice, but also permafrost (which will not only increase CO2 emissions, but also methane emissions from thermal karst lakes).

Imagine what Bintanja (2018) would project if it had used a model with ECS greater than 5C:

R. Bintanja (2018), "The impact of Arctic warming on increased rainfall", Scientific Reports,  8, Article number: 16001, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34450-3

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

Abstract: "The Arctic region is warming two to three times faster than the global mean, intensifying the hydrological cycle in the high north. Both enhanced regional evaporation and poleward moisture transport contribute to a 50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain, but the physical and dynamical constraints governing the transition to a rain-dominated Arctic are unknown. Here we use actual precipitation, snowfall, rainfall output of 37 global climate models in standardised 21st-century simulations to demonstrate that, on average, the main contributor to additional Arctic (70–90°N) rainfall is local warming (~70%), whereas non-local (thermo)dynamical processes associated with precipitation changes contribute only 30%. Surprisingly, the effect of local warming peaks in the frigid high Arctic, where modest summer temperature changes exert a much larger effect on rainfall changes than strong wintertime warming. This counterintuitive seasonality exhibits steep geographical gradients, however, governed by non-linear changes in the temperature-dependent snowfall fraction, thereby obscuring regional-scale attribution of enhanced Arctic rainfall to climate warming. Detailed knowledge of the underlying causes behind Arctic snow/rainfall changes will contribute to more accurate assessments of the (possibly irreversible) impacts on hydrology/run-off, permafrost thawing, ecosystems, sea ice retreat, and glacier melt."


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 04, 2019, 01:07:57 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,515,575 km2(October 3, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 24k, 18k less than the average of 42k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 551 k, 196 k (26.2%) less than the average gain to date of 747 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 621 k more than 2012, just 31 k less than 2007, and 248k less than 2018***.
- 7.6% of the season done, 160 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.61 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.27 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 2 days.

*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.

All depends on whether slow refreeze is maintained. __________________________________________________

32
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:09:31 PM »
^^
So - 1.5 C by 2030, unless things continue to speed up?


That's going to take some amazing mitigation. Thank god we've such wonderful politicians to lead us through these perilous times. ;)
Terry
The Uk Metoffice reckoned there might be a year or two of +1.5 in the 2020's - outliers due to temporary climatic conditions

33
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:07:08 PM »
Nature abhors a straight line though a straight line might fit the data for a good many years.

Many natural systems can take punishment with little visible effect for a long time until......
My favourite one is adding nitrates and phosphates to a water body with little impact. Then a tiny bit more and poof! Eutrophication.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:54:54 PM »
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
_______________________________________-
ps: The ESS is being attacked from both sides - earlier melt in Laptev & Chukchi, and from the south - a warming Siberia.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 03, 2019, 03:36:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,644,889  km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,644,889    km2      
-172,394    km2   <   2010's average.
 23,042    km2   >   2018
-994,697    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    48    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    11    k   gain
Central Seas__    34    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    18    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss


Daily gain 48k, 3 k less than the 2010's average of 51 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
?
So, to conclude - je ne sais pas.

36
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: October 02, 2019, 08:54:40 PM »
Washington, D.C.

Capital Weather Gang on Twitter:
"BREAKING: Washington hits 97, passing previous hottest October temperature of 96. This is DC's hottest October day in recorded history.
https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1179448554450046978
More at the link. (But not the image below. ;))
No-one throwing snowballs in Congress today ?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 07:03:24 PM »
... but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
OCEANS 25 June 2018  16:00
‘Atlantification’ of Arctic sea tipping it towards new climate regime
Quote
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

I think - well before 2040

38
Antarctica / Re: SH Polar Vortex
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:38:30 PM »
Is this in the west or the east? :P
my brain hurts.

Don't know, don't care, lost the will to live. Nurse !!!!

39
Antarctica / Re: SH Polar Vortex
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:42:19 PM »
Whoops. Brain re-boot ................ done.

Ok, main vortex centered North of the S Pole at around 0 degrees longitude.

Second vortex centered North of the S Pole close to 180 degrees longitude.


40
Antarctica / Re: SH Polar Vortex
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:35:44 PM »
The SSW has not died - revived a bit @ 30 hPA.

Voretx centre well north of the Pole,
Secondary Vortex well south of the pole.

Affecting NZ
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/116268261/sharp-cold-snaps-to-start-october-with-more-expected-over-spring
'Sharp cold snaps' to start October with more expected over spring
Quote
Spring looks set to continue feeling more like winter at times, with Niwa expecting several "sharp cold snaps" for the first half of October.

There's also a chance that, even as temperatures climb into December, "the door to the Southern Ocean may remain 'ajar', allowing air masses from the south to continually influence New Zealand's patterns".

In it's Seasonal Climate Outlook for the next three months, published on Wednesday, Niwa said New Zealand's coastal sea temperatures were cooler than average in all regions for the first time since January 2017. That factor was expected to influence air temperatures in the period from October to December.

Several models indicated that in the coming season there was a good chance of higher than normal air pressure in the polar region. That would allow the development of a ring of lower than normal pressure in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, Niwa said. That would provide the possible opening for cold air masses to the south to keep affecting New Zealand.

It was the strongest SSW on record for the Southern Hemisphere and only the second major event - the previous major SSW was in September 2002.

While the stratosphere did not directly connect with the troposphere - the layer we live in - as it did in 2002, Niwa linked some weather impacts to the SSW.

Weather patterns across the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes were affected, with "very cold" air masses able to sweep north, Niwa said. Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, New Zealand, and southern Australia experienced colder than average temperatures during September.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:28:46 PM »
Thanks for sharing your experience Bruce.
Hullo Bruce,

Energy efficiency - are there any low cost things you can do to your house to reduce the air-con load ?

I worked in rural Africa in places and the years BAC (Before Air-Conditioning). Traditional house design (over-hanging eaves / verandahs on the sunny side, smaller windows, outside shades, even changes to the roof to encourage drafts through the roof space) worked quite well for most of the year.

The modern thin-skinned concrete box was and is total junk, as is the tin roof instead of thatch.

42
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 02, 2019, 11:55:47 AM »
Miami, Florida.  Not rain; this is street flooding during a king tide.
Quote
Brian Entin (@BrianEntin) 10/1/19, 1:17 PM
Really disturbing drive to pick up lunch. Miami streets not even near the ocean are submerged with ocean water bubbling up from drains. Never seen a king tide like this one.
Hullo Meteo Lady,

Those King Tides in Florida might have been exacerbated by - Lorenzo
Quote from latest NHC.NOAA.GOV discussion ....
Quote
Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe.  These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.

What do you think?

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 02, 2019, 09:30:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :-  4,460,032 km2(October 1, 2019)

On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 52k, 3k more than the average of 49k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 496 k, 173 k (25.9%) less than the average gain to date of 669 k.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 611 k more than 2012, 48 k less than 2007, and 274k less than 2018
- 6.8% of the season done, 162 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.63 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.25 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook ??

SSTs definitely going down. Can a slow down in freeze be maintained?

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 01, 2019, 10:28:57 PM »
The Industry Forecasts For Renewables Are Horrendous

As part of my research I am rechecking the industry forecasts (GWEC for wind, Solar Power Europe for solar) and they are absolutely awful.

GWEC (Global Wind Energy Council): net new wind capacity will increase by on 2.7% per annum between now and 2023.

Solar Power Europe: yearly new new solar capacity growth crashes from 25% in 2019 (a big rebound from the single digit growth in 2018) to 12% in 2020, 10% in 2021, 7% in 2022 and 6% in 2023.

The result of these forecasts, barring a global recession, will be increases in fossil fuel use and GHG emissions between now and 2023.
Just to cheer you up, the data I have (which is the official data) says the CO2 sinks are not as high as 56% as generally quoted in the literature. So the increase in CO2 ppm will not be 44% of those increased CO2 emissions but more probably somewhat above 50%.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2715.msg231483.html#msg231483

ps: Latest guesstimate for 2019 CO2 emissions = 2018 + 1.6%

45
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: October 01, 2019, 09:04:46 PM »
No new data from GRACE-FO. Shame. Time to send a begging e-mail.

Also have to wait for end of year autopsies from DMI and NSIDC Greenland today.

Here is a probably the last gif showing the 2019 melt season dying.
[/quote]

46
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: October 01, 2019, 08:18:55 PM »
Excellent work by Gerontocrat into carbon sinks. However, I am surprised to find the quantity in gigatonne of carbon sunk being on the same axis as percentage sunk given that total emissions are not constant.
It isn't.

Percentages - refer to the right axis (green)
Amounts in GT - refer to the left axis (red).

Revised graph attached with amount left in atmosphere (in GT) added. (Also after rooting around online found a better figure to convert CO2 ppm to CO2 Gigatons - minor change).

Note that as regards percentages of CO2 sunk, the most often quoted figures are 30% Ocean, 26% Land, Total Percent of Emissions captured 56%.

The ten year average on 1980 to 2019 data is never higher than just over 52%.

If 2019 data ends up in line with current estimates, the percent of CO2 captured in 2019 will be only about 42%

47
Whoops - forgot USA - but who cares what happens south of 49 North?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2019, 03:40:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 September 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,543,017 km2

Total Area is now 163 k BELOW the 2010's average, and just below 2016 by 6k.
                        
Total Area         
 3,543,017    km2      
-163,123    km2   <   2010's average.
 11,893    km2   >   2018
-946,162    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    16    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 32k, 24 k less than the 2010's average of 56 k.
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49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2019, 02:02:00 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 September 2019 :  22,732,560   km2

The Perils of Projections (continued)


The graph attached shows the 2+ million km2 spread of projected maxima for the last 30 days or so of Global Sea Ice extent remaining gain in the last 10 years.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2019, 01:56:07 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 28 September 2019 :  22,732,560   km2

Jaxa Global Extent stays at lowest in the satellite record (by a smidgeon).

- On this day Global extent lowest again, 126 days at lowest in 2019 , 
- extent 49 k below 2017,
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.48 million km2, 0.53 million km2 (7.5%) less than the average gain of 7.01 million km2 by this day,
-on average 77.7% of extent gain done and 35 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.75 million km2, 2nd lowest but  1.11 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).
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