Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 12
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2019, 03:00:45 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,390,638 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,390,638    km2      
-386,461    km2   <   2010's average.
-275,551    k   <   2018
-807,982    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -76    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas__   -53    k   loss
Other Seas___   -4    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -14    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Area loss 76 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 58 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (291k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, looking somewhat greater on the North American side.

Of note, is the recent increase in daily area loss in the Central  Arctic Seas - defined as the High Arctic by Tealight. At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future. However, at the moment it does look to me as if the chances of the North-West Passage being fully open are considerably higher this year.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2019, 02:38:34 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,466,440 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,466,440    km2      
-369,225    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,202    k   <   2018
-793,550    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas__   -52    k   loss
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -17    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Area loss 74 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (314k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2019, 09:25:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,323,094 km2(May 19, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 282 k > 2016, 112 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 52 k, 13 k less than the average loss of 65 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,948 k, 485 k (20%) greater than the average of 2,463k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.9% of the melting season done, with 117 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.3 to +3.7 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic .

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate to much above average in the immediate future.

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 03:16:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,540,849 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,540,849    km2      
-352,359    km2   <   2010's average.
-233,535    k   <   2018
-782,239    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -71    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas__   -34    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Area loss 71 k, 10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (331k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2019, 10:43:03 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,374,861 km2(May 18, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 271 k > 2016, 146 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 46 k, 12 k less than the average loss of 58 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,896 k, 498 k (21%) greater than the average of 2,397k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 24.3% of the melting season done, with 118 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.89 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least mid-late June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment still little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate further. But several posts on the melting season thread suggest (with growing confidence?) that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train. The sheer persistence of above average temperatures across the whole Arctic might have an effect?

On average, nearly 25% of the melting season is done.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 11:39:47 PM »
i have not seen etienne accuse degrowth advocates as violent.

sidd
There was I, getting ready to make some Molotov cocktails, and thinks "damn, that means supporting the fossil fuel industry".

It's a tough life being a rebellious environmentalist.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 18, 2019, 03:12:05 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,611,807 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,611,807    km2      
-343,850    km2   <   2010's average.
-213,374    k   <   2018
-772,164    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -38    k   loss
Central Seas__   -25    k   loss
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -18    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    12    k   gain
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 68 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (340k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

It will be interesting to see if the prognostications of imminent ice armageddon (Slater projections, various posts in the melting thread) translate into HUGE ice loss. Looking at temperature alone suggests more like a bit above average at least for the next week or so.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 18, 2019, 12:01:27 PM »
There is max temperature in the last image.
A quibble...

I think I am right in saying that the GFS maximum (and minimum) temperature images are a bit deceiving, in that even if the forecast is 100% correct, there will not be a date/time when the image is a reality.

For the 5 day image shown, I think the image shows the maximum temperature for each element of the grid over the next 5 days. So one place might be at maximum today, another in 3 days time, and so on.  You can tell this from the image. Alaska cannot be at maximum temperature at the same time as Norway - if Alaska is basking in the late afternoon sun, Norway is freezing in the early early hours before dawn.

Thus the maximum image exaggerates the heat, the minimum image exaggerates the cold.

Mind you, it still looks like the Central Arctic sea ice is on the move and in serious grief..

9
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:35:36 PM »
GISS-LOTI came in at +0.99°C for April.  2nd warmest April on record behind of course April 2016. 

Something I continue to highlight is that the drop off after the 2015-2016 super Niño was much less than previous Niño's: 2010, 1998, etc.

The running 12-month mean anomaly is now back up to the linear trend of 0.20°C per decade.  It took post 1998 & 2010 much longer to rebound.
I've been playing with your graph - adding lines. I sure hope the last line added - the short red one, is not the shape of things to come.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:02:06 PM »
The Perils of Projections?

At the moment 2019 NSIDC Sea Ice Area is some 360k, circa one week's melt,  above that of 2016 (currently lowest area). However, that overall position conceals very large differences between various seas .

For example, sea ice area in the Chukchi Sea has been lowest in the satellite record for 58 out of 135 days in 2019 so far. In 2016, sea ice loss was merely average. In contrast, in 2016 ice in the Beaufort Sea, just next door, crashed. 2019 area loss , though above average, is far more modest.

On the Atlantic side, in 2016 the Barents sea ice melted out extremely early. In 2019, although sea ice loss has rapidly increased in the last few days, area is still a bit above the 2010's average.

Such extreme variations year by year, sea by sea, suggests great regional climatic variation within the general framework of AGW of n degrees per decade. So I don't have a clue what will happen in the remaining 75+ % of the 2019 melting season - not in total and not where in the Arctic the above and below average sea ice losses will be.

But, what does that matter? So here's my forecast for the 2019 Jaxa Extent minimum.
4,000,000 km2- not a km2 more, not a km2 less;  on September 13th - not a day before, not a day later.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 03:56:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,680,060 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,680,060    km2      
-336,508    km2   <   2010's average.
-204,868    k   <   2018
-761,718    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -66    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -36    k   loss
Central Seas__   -21    k   loss
Other Seas___   -9    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -16    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -18    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -15    k   loss
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Area loss 66 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (363k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.2 to +3.2 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 17, 2019, 11:45:55 AM »

It would be interest to get some kind of sense of how people rank the various variables.

As a newbie, I would guess water temperature is at least up there with atmospheric temperature . Sunlight has been pointed out. The spin which brings ice to Fram seems important. Nares being open with a steady throughput. Wind. The thickness of the ice. The level of surface fracturing.

Thanks for your patience. I'm just trying to get oriented. Asking questions helps.
For discussions on the various parameters that influence sea ice area and extent the 2019 melting season thread (and other threads such as salinity) is where you need to go. There you will find the posts on the weather, the climate, the sea temperatures, the ocean currents etc etc etc. There you will also find the more you know the less you know.

This thread is mostly just about the data itself. I only make a comment on my posts in this thread about where the very short-term direction of travel may be.

Most of us also use the "Stupid Questions" thread from time to time. You will get good answers and links to places within this forum and elsewhere.  It is a big and wide-ranging forum. Good hunting.

13
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 16, 2019, 08:01:40 PM »
In general, Antarctic SIE very gradually increased over the decades until 2015 - which was a very high max. And then extent crashed from September 2016 and has stayed down. I don't have a clue why. There is an article, but I am still confused..

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07865-9
Sustained ocean changes contributed to sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat in late 2016
Quote
Abstract
After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.

Anyway, this year so far is mostly about the 2 biggest seas - i.e. Weddell Sea low extent, and the Ross Sea lowish extent.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 16, 2019, 03:04:52 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,746,321 km2
               
Total Area         
 10,746,321    km2      
-333,628    km2   <   2010's average.
-202,061    k   <   2018
-751,156    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -45    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    11    k   gain
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss

Area loss 45 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average loss of 66 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (385k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic, the CAA and Hudson Bay. Also warmth in Baffin Bay  for most of the time.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 16, 2019, 08:20:31 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,568,100 km2(May 15, 2019)

After a solid week of well below average extent loss, 3 days of above average loss.

- Extent is back to 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 306 k > 2016, 104 k < 2018.
- Extent loss on this day 89k, 48 k more than the average loss of 41 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,703 k, 482 k (22%) greater than the average of 2,221k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 22.5% of the melting season done, with 121 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.91 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate, which makes the general disintegration of the sea ice all along the Arctic ocean edge from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea all a bit of a mystery to me. But several posts on the melting season still suggest that major changes favouring mega-melt might be in train.

On average, less than 25% of the melting season is done.

16
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 15, 2019, 10:19:39 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  8,500,344 km2(May 14, 2019)

Extent gain a mixture of above and  below average in the last few days so 2019 extent stays lowest in the satellite record for the 35th day this year.
- Extent gain on this day 98k, 14 k less than the average gain of 112 k on this day.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 153 k less than extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 6.076 million km2, 1.261 million km2 (17%) less than the average of 7.337 million km2 by this day,
- 45.6% of average extent gain done, with 125 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.22 million km2, 0.84 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

17
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« on: May 14, 2019, 07:29:22 PM »
Perhaps the significance to take way from the unhappy story of the demise of Very Big Chunk is that it put up such a feeble resistance to disintegration.

Does this suggest that the rest of the ice being dragged into the Nares or towards the Fram is equally in such poor nick? If so, assumptions regarding the structural integrity of the remaining multi-year ice may need adjusting downwards, and its mobility upwards.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 13, 2019, 08:30:33 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,788,391 km2(May 12, 2019)

- Extent is 3rd  lowest in the satellite record, 300 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 23k, 50 k less than the average loss of 73 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,483 k, 403 k (21%) greater than the average of 2,080k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 21.0% of the melting season done, with 124 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.99 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +1.5 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

At the moment little reason to suppose sea ice loss will accelerate, which makes the cracks and general disintegration of the sea ice all along the Arctic ocean edge from the Beaufort to the Greenland Sea all a bit of a mystery to me.

EDIT. But Frivolousz21 suggests that major changes favouring mega-melt might be on the way - see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg199018.html#msg199018

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 12, 2019, 02:27:38 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,903,723  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,903,723    km2      
-427,622    km2   <   2010's average.
-314,792    k   <   2018
-799,195    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -18    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Area loss 18 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average loss of 53 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (205k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

20
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 12, 2019, 01:15:23 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 11 May 2019

Melt was lower again, but precipitation was nearly zero so 11 May was the fifth day of negative change (although very small) to overall SMB, most unusual  for the time of year.

This is becoming apparent on the accumulated SMB graph.

From Tuesday onwards it looks like melt will tick up, while precipitation will remain low, so SMB change should be -ve or close to zero..
_____________________________________________________
ps: Note how that warmth is spread over most of Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and much of the eastern CAA.

21
Usually volcanic activity is accompanied by seismic activity. Is there any direct evidence of an active volcanic system beneath the WAIS or are all information about this indirectly derived from isotope patterns or (it was posted somewhere here in this forum) higher bedrock temperatures/larger heat flux in the crust?
The largest volcanic region on earth is 2 kilometers below West Antarctica.
Find about it on thread Antarctic Tectonics #104

22

Is it not a scientific informed "fact" the average length of time for a Species existence is ~200,000 years?

No, not a " scientific informed "fact" " at all. More like disinformation.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/03/2/l_032_04.html
Quote
The typical rate of extinction differs for different groups of organisms. Mammals, for instance, have an average species "lifespan" from origination to extinction of about 1 million years, although some species persist for as long as 10 million years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Background_extinction_rate

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 11, 2019, 12:16:33 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 10 May 2019 :-    19,856,896 km2

Extent gain has been more above than below average the last few days, but extent has remained lowest, now for the 31st day this year, 25 days in a row, 518 k below 2018.

- extent gain on this day 51k, 16k more than the the average gain of 35 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 3.61 million km2, 1.74 million km2 (33%) less than the average gain of 5.35 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 59.3% of extent gain done and 184 days to maximum, but before that there is a false maximum and minimum before the (usually) true maximum around the 4th of November.

The Perils of Projections
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 23.53 million km2,  106k less than the record low maximum in 2016 and lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is often very high.

24
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 11, 2019, 11:54:54 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  8,030,687 km2(May 10, 2019)

Extent gain a mixture of above and  below average in the last week days so 2019 extent stays lowest in the satellite record for the 31st time this year.
- Extent gain on this day 86k, 19 k less than the average gain of 105 k on this day.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 153 k less than extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 4.606 million km2, 1.290 million km2 (19%) less than the average of 6.896 million km2 by this day,
- 42.7% of average extent gain done, with 129 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.22 million km2, 0.84 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 10, 2019, 05:35:01 PM »
Here is an area graph showing both 2016 and 2012 data for just the "High Arctic" seas as defined by Tealight. (Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic).

Also are the AWP graphs from Tealight for those same seas.

A nice illustration of how even though melt was much later in 2012 than in 2016, it did not prevent cumulative AWP in the central Arctic in 2012 ending up much higher than in 2016.

Mind you, it did not stop the ice recovering within a year.

26
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: May 10, 2019, 01:01:01 PM »
what ! no balloons for the end of the world party ? ..
Use hydrogen - so the end of the world party goes with a bang.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 10, 2019, 12:55:08 PM »
I was in "international development" for a long time. Very depressing watching NGO's being swallowed into the Government controlled bi-lateral and and multi-lateral systems, losing their independence and ability to challenge the status quo.

Maybe this time will be different? (Did I hear hollow laughter from the back? Yes, it was my daughter).

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 10, 2019, 12:34:57 PM »
Quote from: bbr2314

Siberia's snow melt has accelerated rapidly.
Interesting, worldview is displaying fires/thermal anomalies causing or resulting from recent rapid snow melt patches opening up through Siberia near 70°N. The speed between ice cover and fire is rather worrisome with summer yet weeks away.

The attached map from Environment Canada shows variation in snow depth from average. The red line shows average extent.

Snow cover extent in Siberia is average, as is North America extent apart from NE Canada. i.e. no big deal.

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 10, 2019, 12:10:32 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 9 May 2019

The 9th May was the third day of negative change (although very small) to overall SMB, most unusual  for the time of year.

Melting
Melting is still high for the time of year.
However, from the 14th it looks like warmth returns to  Baffin Bay with a vengeance, and persisting for rest of the 10 day forecast period

Precipitation
The 7th to 9th May was very dry indeed, with melt and sublimation on both East and West coastal fringes.

It looks like precipitation is going to be very much below average for at least the forecast period, apart from the SE coast. At low altitudes methinks some of that will be rain, not snow.

SMB - Surface Mass Balance

So for 3 days Greenland lost a few hundred million tonnes of mass, instead of gaining the average of around 2 gt per day.mass. This is over a month early compared with the average..

The contrast between the highly +ve SMB  anomaly in the SE and the equally strong -ve anomaly in the West looks like becoming even more extreme.

The next 10 days are likely to be interesting as warmth and cold wax and wane, wane and wax.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 10, 2019, 11:21:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,861,080 km2(May 9, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd  lowest in the satellite record, 178 k more than 2016
- Extent loss on this day 39k, 18 k less than the average loss of 57 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,410 k, 536 k (29%) greater than the average of 1,874k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 19.0% of the melting season done, with 128 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.85 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.67 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2.

Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner. At the moment 2012 daily loss still below average.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2 to +3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 09, 2019, 07:45:29 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  10,982,989  km2
               
Total Area         
 10,982,989    km2      
-505,819    km2   <   2010's average.
-375,964    k   <   2018
-861,745    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -38    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -17    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 38 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average loss of 41 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (116k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 08, 2019, 05:16:56 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 7 May 2019

Today I am feeling extra smug. There have been comments on some threads about forecasts made but no follow up. Here is a follow-up.

Some days ago I said that melt was likely to be significant for the time of year, and looked like persisting. I also said that if at the same time precipitation was low, there was a chance of a negative change to overall SMB, most unusual  for the time of year. On the 7th May this has occurred.

Melting
The melting on the 7th May was at a new maximum for 2019.
It looks like this could be repeated today the 8th May, but then reduce in the following days.

Precipitation
The 7th May was very dry indeed, with melt and sublimation on both East and West coastal fringes.

It looks like precipitation is going to be very much below average for at least the next week, with even the SE coast pretty dry.

SMB - Surface Mass Balance

On the 7th May Greenland lost a gigatonne or two Ok, only half a gt, of mass. This is over a month early compared with the average..

Today's weather conditions mean a repeat performance today is likely.

The contrast between the highly +ve SMB  anomaly in the SE and the equally strong -ve anomaly in the West looks like becoming even more extreme.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 08, 2019, 04:24:42 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,020,509  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,020,509    km2      
-511,210    km2   <   2010's average.
-397,163    k   <   2018
-872,073    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -40    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -14    k   loss
Central Seas__   -19    k   loss
Other Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 40 k, 2 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (140k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.3 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 07, 2019, 05:38:35 PM »
Thanks, Gerontocrat! (2nded!)

I wonder where 2007 would show up on the "Accumulated Albedo" graph?  Also, a graph of "Accumulated Albedo" and September minimum extent would be very interesting to see...
Tealight said he had processed the regional data for the last 40 years.
I think we need to grovel to him for the graphs and/or data to give it a go ourselves.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 07, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
Thanks for the comments everyone, I took gerontocrats advice and plotted the regression (sept minima not year maxima). FDD as a whole seems to be a pretty poor predictor of the cycle end-point.

This is an imperfect way to plot this, but my university firewall prevents me from accessing ftp files meaning I need to do it all manually. Also the fact these FDD data points are Jan-Jan, but the Sept minimum occurs 3/5ths into the year makes it worse.

I suppose what im trying to show here is that I shouldnt really have taken any inference from the FDD data about what way the ice could go  :)!
Tealight's AWP graphs and maps give the daily and accumulated potential energy over and in the Arctic. Goto https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

I attach his "High Arctic" graphs that include only the following regions: Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, Chukchi Sea, Beaufort Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Central Arctic[/quote] incidentally, the same seas I show as the Central Arctic Seas in the area tables I post in the extent data thread.

I am sure that they give a much better idea of the current and future state of Arctic Sea Ice (as Tealight has proved once already - Champion of Antarctic Sea Ice Predictors ("No time for losers!?)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1749.msg197999.html#msg197999)


36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 07, 2019, 11:28:14 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 6 May 2019

As a bit of light relief from the gravity of the recent posts, just for a change here is some data about the Greenland 2019 Melt Season.

Melting
It looks like the West Coast especially will stay warm enough to keep the melt going at around 5% at least until Wednesday. After that it looks like melt will reduce but not stop.

Precipitation
It looks like precipitation is going to be below average over the next 10 days, but once again more in the SE coastal fringe.

The contrast between the highly +ve SMB  anomaly in the SE and the equally strong -ve anomaly in the West looks like becoming even more extreme.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 07, 2019, 09:12:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 11,976,572 km2(May 6, 2019)

- Extent is  lowest in the satellite record, 10 k less than 2016, lowest for the 28th day this year.
- Extent loss on this day 65k, 18 k more than the average loss of 47 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,295 k, 599 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,695k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 17.2% of the melting season done, with 130 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.79 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.61 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?

38
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: May 06, 2019, 08:48:56 PM »
UN Extinction Report

The BBC (on-line and on the gogglebox) have made quite a splash on the UN Extinction report. 
Even makes it onto page 1 of Sky News

New York Times have got it on page 1 of their on-line version.
Not on Bloomberg News - not even on their "Climate Changed" section. Disappointing.
Not on Fox news - what a surprise!

You can find the summary report here:-
https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf

Presumably a huge report will come out later
______________________________________________________
Quote from Tor...
Quote
The "Anthropocene" is a political construct, whereas the "Holocene" is a geological one.
The Anthropocene Age was suggested by some geologists who calculated that in many ways man was causing greater geological change than natural processes - e.g. man was shifting more rock, sand and earth around the planet than natural processes of erosion. In later geological ages, the rock strata being formed today will have the imprint of mankind in it.

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The 'Very Big Chunk' poll
« on: May 06, 2019, 07:17:39 PM »
"I said it was only inertia that was keeping it together", he said, smugly.

To just collapse into bits from being caught in the progressively faster flowing current down the plughole is not behaviour one would expect from solid multi-year ice ?

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: May 06, 2019, 07:07:53 PM »
Could someone please critique this American Thinker article on Solar Energy?
My background in Astronomy (CWRU B.S. 1980) doesn't really help me much to analyze it.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2019/05/the_solar_energy_racket.html

americanthinker.com - think heritage foundation, american enterprise institute, etc etc etc.

They gets loads-of-money from shysters like the Koch Brothers and help from the sort of people who successfully lobbied Congress and misinformed the public for so many years on behalf of the tobacco companies.

Analysis?
They talk crap,
They are crap.

and that's all I'm gonna say about that


41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 06, 2019, 02:55:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,115,138  km2
               
Total Area         
 11,115,138    km2      
-498,816    km2   <   2010's average.
-415,648    k   <   2018
-864,760    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -63    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -31    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -13    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss


Area loss 63 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average loss of 60 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (168k > 2016)

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 06, 2019, 01:35:29 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,041,650 km2(May 5, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 3 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 46k, 7 k less than the average loss of 53 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,229 k, 581 k (35%) greater than the average of 1,648k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.7% of the melting season done, with 131 days to average date of minimum (13 September). That is just one-sixth of the average total extent loss in the season

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +2.5 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth over most of the Central Arctic and the CAA as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?
[/quote]

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 05, 2019, 05:44:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 May 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,178,315 km2
               
 11,178,315    km2      
-490,368    km2   <   2010's average.
-426,299    k   <   2018
-843,702    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -72    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas__   -43    k   loss
Other Seas___   -13    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -22    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Area loss 72 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 64 k on this day.
Total area still 2nd lowest (180k > 2016) after being lowest for 28 days in a row until 8 days ago.

Temperatures
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +3.5 celsius over the forecast period. Warmth and wind have marched into the Arctic Ocean via the Pacific Gateway and into Baffin Bay from the Atlantic.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

2016 area is still likely to stay lowest for some time to come as it was in very strong area decline at this time.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 05, 2019, 07:33:26 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,087,526 km2(May 4, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 6 k more than 2016,
- Extent loss on this day 30k, 19 k less than the average loss of 49 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,184 k, 588 k (37%) greater than the average of 1,596k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 16.1% of the melting season done, with 132 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.80 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.62 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June. For that reason I have removed 2018 daily change and replaced it with 2016 data on graph Arc2. Later in the season that will be replaced with 2012 as it becomes the front runner.

Other Stuff
GFS shows temperature anomalies varying from +3 to +4 celsius over the forecast period, with warmth in the Pacific side as far as Svalbard. Also warmth in Baffin Bay for most of the time.

Suggests average to above average steady sea ice decline?

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 02:19:03 PM »
The East Siberian Sea continues to los area at a rate of knots.
Now 3 weeks ahead of the 2010's average, and 6 weeks ahead of 2018.

The Beaufort also showing signs of joining in.

Getting quite late in the season for a total refreeze? Much depends on how long the above average temperatures and winds favourable for open water expansion last.

46
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 03, 2019, 01:45:11 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent :  7,120,792 km2(May 2, 2019)

Extent gain mostly below average in the last few days so 2019 extent stays lowest in the satellite record again (for the 23rd time this year).
- Extent gain on this day 104k, 21 k less than the average gain of 125 k on this day.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record for this day, 114 k less than extent on this day in 2017.
-  Extent gain from minimum is 4.696 million km2, 1.294 million km2 (22%) less than the average of 5.990 million km2 by this day,
- 36.8% of average extent gain done, with 137 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),

The Perils of Projections
Remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.24 million km2, 0.82 million km2 less than 2017 (the record low maximum year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2019, 08:34:48 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 1 May 2019 :-   19,253,124  km2

extent gain being below average the last 5 days, extent lowest for the 22nd day this year, 16 days in a row, 496k below 2017.

- extent gain on this day 19k, 34k less than the the average gain of 53 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 3.00 million km2, 1.78 million km2 (37%) less than the average gain of 4.78 milllion km2 by this day,
-on average 53.1% of extent gain done and 187 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),

The Perils of Projections
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 23.49 million km2,  148k less than the record low maximum in 2016 and lowest in the satellite record.

Being a combination of two separate pieces of data volatility is often very high.
____________________________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on - or nudged by magnamentis

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2019, 10:56:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,236,563 km2(May 1, 2019)

- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 41 k greater than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 69k, 15 k more than the average loss of 54 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 2,035 k, 582 k (40%) greater than the average of 1,453k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 14.7% of the melting season done, with 135 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.81 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.63 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To become lowest again, 2019 will have to match or exceed the above average extent losses of 2016 from now until at least June.

Other Stuff

https://climatereanalyzer.org/ not responding again - server kaput

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 01, 2019, 08:06:12 PM »
Every time I think I am immune to the vileness within the DNA of the human species, I read something that gets through the shield..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/greta-thunberg-right-environmental-activist-attacks

The hounding of Greta Thunberg is proof that the right has run out of ideas
Aditya Chakrabortty

Quote
Over the past few days, something extraordinary has happened in our politics. A bunch of grown men have begun bullying a schoolgirl. Perhaps you already know who I mean: Greta Thunberg, she of the pigtails and school strikes, who came to Westminster last week and slammed adoring MPs for posturing rather than taking action on climate breakdown, then hoofed it over to St Pancras for the 36-hour train ride back to Stockholm.

Which left the eco-denialists back here with a stonking great headache: how to bash this 16-year-old celeb? Not by dismantling her arguments, not when the scientists and Sir David of Blue Planet back her up. Nor by sniffing around her record, since by definition a teenager hasn’t much of a past to rake over. The standard methods of political warfare off-limits to them, they are trying something new and unusual. They are sinking their teeth into her.
 
She was “chilling”, declared Brendan O’Neill, editor of the hard-right website Spiked, after picking on her “monotone voice” and “look of apocalyptic dread in her eyes”. Given Thunberg’s openness about her Asperger’s, this was a dog whistle if he knew about it, but it was at best crass if he didn’t: the kid’s on the spectrum! Bringing up the rear were the bloggers at Guido Fawkes, trying to eke a three-course meal out of the morsel that Thunberg’s mum performed in the Eurovision song contest 10 years ago – cast-iron proof of “an incredibly privileged background”. This finding has been gurningly spread on social media by none other than that vomiting dustbin of opinions Toby Young. You don’t need to be much sharper than him to observe that he is the son of a baron who rang Oxford University to get his boy a place.

This is sad and it is desperate, but one thing it is not is insignificant. Both O’Neill and the Guido Fawkes site form part of the wider ecology of rightwing thinking. O’Neill is a regular on the rolling-news channels, with their unquenchable demands for just-add-water controversy; Guido Fawkes supplies both gossip and personnel to the rest of the British media.

Sure enough, by last weekend the Spectator and the Sunday Times were hosting attacks on this schoolgirl revolutionary, with her authoritarian demands about not destroying the environment, with Rod Liddle in the Sunday paper devoting almost half a page to “that weird Swedish kid” and her “imbecilic” supporters. The Spectator apparently can’t get enough of this story, even running a piece by Helen Dale, who posted a tweet calling for “this Greta Thunberg character” to “have a meltdown on national telly”. This was a “gag”, Dale says now, deploying the excuse of bullies down the ages: can’t you take a joke?

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2019, 04:54:59 PM »
I asked the University of Maine today what was up with /climatereanalyzer.org/

Their reply was really quick.
The server died on Monday - it is still dead and they don't know when it is coming back.

So much for the benefits of worry-free cloud computing.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 12