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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
The linked article indicates that the USA and Saudi Arabia recently blocked a U.N. resolution to make the UNEA (U.N. Environment Assembly) the governing body for regulating any future potential implementation of geoengineering.  Apparently, the USA and Saudi Arabia did not want a U.N. body to limit/regulate the impacts of geoengineering on the overall environment and on small countries:

Title: "U.S. Blocks U.N. Resolution on Geoengineering"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-blocks-u-n-resolution-on-geoengineering/
Here we have the USA - in search of energy dominance based on oil and gas as official Government policy, and Saudi Arabia - facing bankruptcy if/when demand for the black stuff collapses.

So not a surprise if they want unfettered freedom to try geo-engineering by any means to capture CO2 so fossil fuel production can not only continue unabated but increase. It won't work but.......

The lunatics have taken over the asylum - the brakes on the Trumpistan roller-coaster have failed.

2
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: March 18, 2019, 11:28:48 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 17 March 2019

In the last 5 days or so, precipitation was mostly well below average.
Accumulated SMB in the year to date is around 75 GT or more (circa 15 to 20%) below average.

However, it looks likely that precipitation could be somewhat above average over the next few days. This includes at least one cyclonic event from the S.E. identified in the recent paper about the significance and increasing frequency of summer and winter rainfall events.

The contrast with North America continues - now N. America gets a bit dryer as Greenland gets a bit wetter.
___________________________________________________________________

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 08:31:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,113,396 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,113,396    km2      
 162,395    km2   >   2010's average.
 371,029    k   >   2018
-220,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 10 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, entirely due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas. From today posting will assume the melting season is getting underway.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 11:39:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,093,381 km2(March 16, 2019)

- Extent now 178k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 5 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 1  zero out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 .

i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is surely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Surely this is the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]

5
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,918,094 km2(March 13, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue. )Though note on Table Ant3 the year 2006)

Extent GAIN of 41k, 37k less than the average gain of 78 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 493k,  573k (54%) less than the average of 1,066k by this day,
- 6.4% of the freezing season done, with 187 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.92 million km2, 140k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 13, 2019, 07:24:02 PM »
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable?
Yes.
Last tweet from NIPR ......

7
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 10, 2019, 07:40:25 PM »
As many of you know the DMI moved all their Greenland data products to the Polar Portal website (http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/)

I emailed them about the missing accumulated SMB map and their reply was that it isn't as popular as the anomaly map and therefore unlikely to make it over to PolarPortal. I find it dissapointing, but to brighten up my day I found their monthly raw data is freely available for research purposes. (currently Jan 1980 to Aug 2017)

So I think I produce the accumulated SMB maps myself all the way back to 1980 and create some long term SMB graphs (whole year Sep-Aug) and only the melt season (Jun-Aug). Is there anything you would like to see that's possible to create with monthly surface mass balance data?
I am greedy, - "I want it all, and I want it now"

The location of accumulated SMB is important - including the winter build-up. The anomaly this year is telling me where accumulated SMB is below and above average, but is not telling me where and how much snow has fallen. Obviously up North and uphill is likely to melt later and less strongly. So my cry is for at minimum the end of winter (May 31) accumulated SMB map. It gives the starting point for melt. Having a contour map "watermark" imposed upon it would also give an idea of how much accumulated SMB vs chances of melt. And then of course all the trends, SD etc.

I told you I was greedy. It's your fault, Tealight - you did the NH Snow / Albedo project so damn quickly and comprehensively that we now expect you to enact the US "SeaBees" mantra -
"the difficult you get now, the impossible a little later".

8
Wunderground.com says the USA is going to get a classic slow-moving March storm next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2019-03-08-march-system-severe-flooding-snow-wind-west-plains-south

The balance between rain and snow is going to be interesting. The first image from Wunderground shows a lot of area with rain and less with snow. The 2nd image GFS shows more or less the same. The last image shows that warmth in North America is moving North as does the sun.

So my little prediction that belongs to me for North America (NA) is that by next weekend
- a goodly part of the current thin snow cover in the more southerly latitudes of the USA will be gone, i.e. SCE will be heading South (see image 4.png),
- NA-SWE (snow mass) will either be dithering around the max or will show a loss.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 09, 2019, 02:06:28 PM »
Quote
The 14.735 figure is from the NSIDC daily extent file, which does not go down to individual seas.

So which one will be the "official" number they release when they announce the max?
I am sure it is the daily extent number at three decimal places of a million km2- i.e. 10,000 km2.
Also note that in their user guide they talk about inherent uncertainty in the data.
 
Quote
Quote
Uncertainty in daily passive microwave estimates of Arctic-wide extent due to noise in the data and sensitivity to brightness temperatures is on the order of 30,000-50,000 sq km or 0.03-0.05 million sq km (personal communication, Walt Meier 05 Oct. 2016). Day-to-day differences on the order of 0.001 million sq km, as shown in these spreadsheets, are unimportant and are included only to serve as tie-breakers when ranking is done and to make it easier for users to do their own calculations without finding differences with our conclusions due to rounding errors.
[/size]
https://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/files/data/noaa/g02135/Sea-Ice-Analysis-Spreadsheets-Overview.pdf

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 09, 2019, 01:24:31 PM »
Also, 2012 was an extreme melt year (in Greenland and elsewhere, not matched since): not a good year to end trend calculations with (when viewed 7 years later).
Depends on what the purpose of the study is?
Purpose :" the mechanisms that trigger melt are still insufficiently understood"
Results:   "we show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation. " and..
"year-round precipitation events are participating in the ice sheet’s decline."
"Based on linear regression, we find that over these 25 (1988-2012)years, the number of winter events has risen from circa 2 to circa 12 in a single winter."

They also talk about how in Summer southerly cyclones (mostly from the SE) with associated precipitation often precede long periods of high pressure and sunny days.
They also look at how much of the rain and associated snow melt refreezes and how much runs off.

Perhaps that questions the assumptions used by the models used by NSIDC (Greenland) and DMI for the SMB calculations, especially given how much of precipitation in Greenland is concentrated in the warmer Southern and Eastern coastal fringes. (see image attached).

Quote
Abstract. Surface melting is a major driver of Greenland’s
mass loss. Yet, the mechanisms that trigger melt are still
insufficiently understood because seasonally based studies
blend processes initiating melt with positive feedbacks. Here,
we focus on the triggers of melt by examining the synoptic
atmospheric conditions associated with 313 rapid melt increases,
detected in a satellite-derived melt extent product,
equally distributed throughout the year over the period 1979–
2012. By combining reanalysis and weather station data, we
show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow
of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation.

A decomposition of the synoptic atmospheric variability
over Greenland suggests that the identified, melt-triggering
weather pattern accounts for  40% of the net precipitation,
but increases in the frequency, duration and areal extent of
the initiated melting have shifted the line between mass gain
and mass loss as more melt and rainwater run off or accumulate
in the snowpack. Using a regional climate model, we
estimate that the initiated melting more than doubled over
the investigated period, amounting to  28% of the overall
surface melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass
gain, year-round precipitation events are participating in the
ice sheet’s decline.

_______________________________________________
ps: GRACE Follow-On - where are you? No info from NASA or Germany since late 2018. Is it in trouble as data was promised by now.


11
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 08, 2019, 08:15:25 PM »
No gerontocrat, that's why there is a seasonal up and down in the familiar Mauna Loa CO2 data.

If you look at the CH4 data, it also goes through a seasonal cycle, but it is quite different than the CO2 cycle.  It is lowest in the northern summer, generally bottoming out in July.  It then rises through the fall and hits a first peak in the early winter, then falls slightly during the northern midwinter, rises again in the late winter and early spring, then begins it bigger decent toward the next summer's minimum.  Almost every northern winter show this curious small mid-winter dip.

If I had to guess, it has something to with optimal temperatures for microbial metabolism.  Or maybe gas drilling and associated releases drops off during the cold mid-winter months? Or both? Or something else?
It does seem to be at least partly a N / S hemisphere thing. The "winter" dip is apparently a S Hemisphere summer thing (lost the link but found this one)

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsta.2010.0341
The seasonal cycle is a convolution of seasonal cycles from Northern and Southern
Hemisphere sites driven by seasonality in reaction rates of CH4 with OH and emissions from some
sources (wetlands, rice production and biomass burning), and impacts of meteorology

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 08, 2019, 04:07:17 PM »
Ice extent in two seas, not really part of the Arctic ocean, has maxed out at greater than 1980's average extent.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 08, 2019, 11:55:22 AM »
Coal lobbyists like to say electricity generated from coal will keep flowing when renewables fail.

This article seems to do a good job on showing that coal generation fails in extreme weather - hot and cold.

So has another assumption bit the dust in the face of real data?

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/as-extreme-weather-forces-coal-to-falter-where-will-resilience-come-from#gs.00fdh6
As Extreme Weather Forces Coal to Falter, Where Will Resilience Come From?
From bitter cold in North America to historic heatwaves in Australia, coal simply won’t provide the grid resilience federal officials claim subsidies would provide.

Quote
January’s polar vortex renewed Trump administration calls to subsidize uneconomic coal-fired generation to improve grid resilience through on-hand fuel supplies, but reality is disproving this contention — coal is increasingly a grid liability during extreme weather.

The smarter way to secure a reliable grid that proves resilient against climate change impacts is through generation diversity, grid automation, distributed resources and interagency planning. This trend is already being realized by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), while remote California communities and Puerto Rico’s rebuilding grid move to test and scale clean, resilient solutions.

Coal crashes in extreme cold and extreme heat
Data from PJM Interconnection reported severe cold forced 7.3 to 7.7 gigawatts of coal generation (roughly 12 percent of the market’s total installed coal capacity, or enough to power 5 million homes) offline during January’s polar vortex. A total of 18 to 23 percent  of coal plants facing retirement, those most in need of subsidies, were forced offline — nearly double the PJM average forced outage rate of 7 to 10.6 percent during the same time. These forced outages slightly improved from the 2014 polar vortex, when nearly 14 gigawatts of PJM’s coal capacity (roughly 20 percent of PJM’s total coal capacity at the time) was forced offline due to cold-induced power plant equipment failures and frozen coal piles.

Coal’s brittle performance in extreme weather was also apparent at the other end of the spectrum in Australia’s recent historic heatwave. Temperatures exceeding 120° Fahrenheit forced up to 40 percent of the state of Victoria’s coal generation capacity offline, causing brownouts for thousands of homes, while wind and solar energy outperformed expected output.

Australian coal outages weren’t limited to its record heatwave. Coal-fired power plants broke down 135 different times nationwide during 2018, or once every 2.7 days, often due to extreme heat. “Coal-fired power is simply unreliable in the heat,” said Mark Ogge of The Australia Institute.

Solar, on the other hand, performed “the best of all energy sources” during the record-breaking Australian heatwave, according to the Australia Institute’s National Energy Emissions Audit for January. “Solar saved the day,” said Dr. Hugh Sadler, the report’s author.

Even the U.S. Department of Energy’s analytical staff found fuel security is not synonymous with resilience in 2017. DOE examined the role of baseload generation in resilience, and a leaked report found no threat to reliability from losing coal and nuclear generation based on recent reliability analyses from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, echoing similar findings from U.S. wholesale market operators.  More recently, a Rhodium Group analysis showed the grid’s wires, not its plants, were more vulnerable to climate impacts.

According to a recent study by Alison Silverstein, lead author of the DOE’s resilience report, customer strategies like real-time communication and automation, local generation for life-saving infrastructure, regional coordination, and better emergency preparedness make much more sense for improving resilience than focusing unrealistically on saving unreliable coal plants from bleak economics.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2019, 02:41:30 PM »
Pacific Gateway vs Atlantic Front - difference looks like persisting a few more days.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (March)
« on: March 05, 2019, 01:22:40 PM »
Here is the volume data presented in the same format as I use for the JAXA ice extent tables and graphs. Still 7th lowest in the satellite record.
Note how the low volume gains at the end of the month seem to reflect the extent and area drops in the last week of February

16
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: March 04, 2019, 07:57:58 PM »
Oceans getting warmer is one thing, but heatwaves multiplying is somewhat more scary

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/04/heatwaves-sweeping-oceans-like-wildfires-scientists-reveal

Heatwaves sweeping oceans ‘like wildfires’, scientists reveal
Extreme temperatures destroy kelp, seagrass and corals – with alarming impacts for humanity

Quote
The research found heatwaves are becoming more frequent, prolonged and severe, with the number of heatwave days tripling in the last couple of years studied. In the longer term, the number of heatwave days jumped by more than 50% in the 30 years to 2016, compared with the period of 1925 to 1954.

As heatwaves have increased, kelp forests, seagrass meadows and coral reefs have been lost. These foundation species are critical to life in the ocean. They provide shelter and food to many others, but have been hit on coasts from California to Australia to Spain.

“You have heatwave-induced wildfires that take out huge areas of forest, but this is happening underwater as well,” said Dan Smale at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, UK, who led the research published in Nature Climate Change. “You see the kelp and seagrasses dying in front of you. Within weeks or months they are just gone, along hundreds of kilometres of coastline.”

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2019, 04:30:39 PM »
Bering and Chukchi losing area but at a slower rate.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 03, 2019, 09:15:56 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,973,505 km2(March 2, 2019)

Through obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred
- Extent GAIN 64k, 56k more than the average GAIN of 8k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 210 k (2.2%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 10 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 8 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +55 and +2 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to -2 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I still wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

19
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 02, 2019, 10:04:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,496,269 km2(March 1, 2019)

Extent GAIN of 13k, 22k less than the average gain of 35 k on this day.

Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018 & 2017 , and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

The Perils of Projections

Current minimum is 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019). Has extent loss finished ? Probably.
So assuming that....
-  Extent gain from minimum is 72k,  203k (74%) less than the average of 275k by this day,
- 1.5% of the freezing season done, with 199 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 18.27 million km2, 210k > 2017 (record low max year).

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 02, 2019, 09:43:11 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 13,909,051 km2(March 1, 2019)

Through obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred
- Extent LOSS 5k, 45k less than the average GAIN of 40k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 266 k (2.7%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 97.5 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 10 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 8 out of the previous 10 years gives a resulting maximum of less than 14.19 million km2 (310k >2017's record low maximum), i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is probably the 2019 maximum. On the other hand, it is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will be between +5.5 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days or so, then trending down to 0 in days 5 to 10, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast is and will be extreme at times.

I am still wondering how much of the recent strong extent gains and losses is from freezing / melting  and how much from existing ice being spread out or pushed together due to winds and waves. I also wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new maximum, given the lateness in the freezing season.

If not, it is likely the current 22 Feb  maximum of 14.195 million km2 will be the final outcome.On that assumption, Arc5 Table attached gives the maxima over the years and a comparison with 2019.

21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:22:33 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at Feb 28 2019

Note the strong sublimation on the West Coast on the 28th.

In the last few days, precipitation has been well above average and below average. However, the signal for precipitation in the next week or so seems to have weakened (as has that for North America as a whole).

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 28, 2019, 11:44:57 AM »
gerontocrat or anyone who knows.
how/where do you get regional extent/area data?
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ in Excel format

23
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 26, 2019, 01:36:19 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU) as at 25 Feb. Also last year for North America.

Quite a contrast - EU following the climate models, i.e. more snow at high latitudes but less SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by.

NA still showing both SCE and SWE increasing variation from the average. Recent forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Centre are in 2 minds about when the current long cold spell will break - mid-March or late March?
Given that unseasonable cold and its southerly extent, most precipitation in NA will be of snow. GFS Accumulated precipitation forecast to March 8th suggests continued high SCE and SWE.

On Friday might have the Canadian seasonal climate predictions for March April May.

24
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 25, 2019, 10:05:41 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,424,731 km2(February 24, 2019)

Extent LOSS of 18k, 32k LESS than the average GAIN of 14 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 259k km2 (1.6%) less than the 10 year average, being 5 days after the average date of the minimum on 19th February. Only in the record low year of 2017 was the date of minimum later (1 March).

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for extent loss to finish.

25
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 24, 2019, 09:24:45 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 23 February 2019


I was expecting to post the Antarctic sea ice area and extent final graphs for the minimum. But perhaps there is a bit more ice loss to go. Here they are, anyway.

BellingsHausen & Amundsen Sea

26
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 24, 2019, 07:21:06 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,442,463 km2(February 23, 2019)

Extent LOSS of 22k, 42k LESS than the average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017 and 2011, and looking back further, 1997. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 292k km2 (1.8%) less than the 10 year average, being  4 days after the average date of the minimum on 19th February. Only in the record low year of 2017 was the date of minimum later (1 March).

The Perils of Projections

Just waiting for extent loss to finish.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2019, 11:42:02 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 22 February 2019 :-  16,659,330  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006.

The minimum for 2019 was 16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was SIXTH lowest in the satellite record since 1979.

28
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 21, 2019, 06:59:42 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,493,014 km2(February 20, 2019)

Extent loss of 42k, 42k greater than the average gain of 0.2 k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 386k km2 (2.4%) less than the 10 year average, with on average 100.0% of extent loss for the season done and on average -1 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

The projection Ant1 attached has now passed its sell-by date, and will be retired until it re-emerges as a projection of possible maximum values later.
[/quote]

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2019, 02:28:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,789,901  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,789,901    km2      
 138,928    km2   >    2010's average.
 623,766    k   >   2018
-409,362    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    21    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas__    11    k   gain
Other Seas___    2    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    1    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 21 k, 9 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next 5 days, and then up to a perhaps unbelievable +5  or more, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast may be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering and the Chukchi continuing to lose area.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2019, 01:53:10 PM »
I get the impression that a new weather pattern is getting entrenched in the Arctic.

Precipitation in Greenland is switching from well below average to well above average,
The contrast in temperature anomalies between the Pacific and Atlantic halves of the Arctic is impressive and looks like continuing for some time.

But I am not a meteorologist.

31
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: February 20, 2019, 01:19:03 PM »
I must say it's becoming a bit disturbing. A lot of it is random variation but recently all coins fell on the same side. After a couple of good years, we may be sliding back towards the abyss.
Whereupon, it seems that maybe it is a case of "all-change".

http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

In the last 2 days, precipitation has been above average. It looks very much as if the southern and eastern coasts of Greenland are going to have a lot of precipitation over at least the next week to 10 days. Is there a significant change in Arctic weather underway ?


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 18, 2019, 02:11:49 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,745,155 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,745,155    km2      
 163,891    km2   >    2010's average.
 635,325    k   >   2018
-404,842    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    41    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 41 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 44k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area. Bering starting to lose area again.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 17, 2019, 06:02:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,704,061  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,704,061    km2      
 167,091    km2   >    2010's average.
 628,517    k   >   2018
-428,691    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    21    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    13    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains mostly between +1 and +2 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 17, 2019, 04:04:09 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,565,914 km2(February 16, 2019)

Extent loss of 11k, 10k less than the average loss of 21k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 419k km2 (2.6%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 99.6% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 3 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.49 million km2, 340k km2 more than the record low in 2017. 

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 16, 2019, 02:27:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,658,476  km2
         
Total Area         
 12,658,476    km2      
 164,176    km2   >    2010's average.
 610,283    k   >   2018
-461,506    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    46    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain
Central Seas__    13    k   gain
Other Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Area GAIN 46 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 34k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +0 and +3 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold. The contrast will be extreme at times, as shown in the GFS image for Sunday 17th posted above.

On this day, just about everywhere gaining area.

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season & SMB 2018-19
« on: February 15, 2019, 01:49:22 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/

2019 MELT SEASON - 2018-2019 SMB SEASON As at 14 Feb 2019

In the last few days,
- no melt (apart from some sublimation),
- Some dry days and some wettish days but overall well below average,
- SMB balance year to date further below average.

And for next 10 days it looks like,
- no melt,
- Mostly dryish days and some wettish days but overall below average,
- SMB balance year to date further below average. At already well over 50 GT becoming significant. This is in major contrast with Snow Water Equivalent (i.e. Mass) in North America and Eurasia both running at well over +1 SD above average.

In other words - perhaps a continuing change to further below average SMB due to lack of precipitation.  GFS image attached.
_____________________________________________________________
SMB = Surface Mass Balance, which excludes mass loss from calving that on average is greater than SMB gain in the year. i.e. usually Greenland loses mass every year.

GRACE follow-on data - where are you? This is what Germany said late last year___
GRACE Follow-On: Mission Status and Schedule
Mission operations are currently nominal, with continuous collection of K-band ranging
observations. The mission is currently in IOC, with a planned transition into Phase-E
(Science Phase) on Jan-28, 2019. After a Validation & Verification phase (up to 120-
days), Level-1 Science Data deliveries will commence in Spring 2019
_____________________________________________________________

37
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: February 15, 2019, 01:02:36 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/this-is-literally-the-biggest-news-story-in-the-world

This is literally the biggest news story in the world
First Dog on the Moon

It is with deep regret Brenda the Civil Disobedience penguin must inform you:
this is it folks, it’s over


Note how First Dog gets it right - Climate Change is the coup de grâce that finishes the job of extermination of the web of life.
__________________________________________________________________________
Borrowed directly from French and first appearing in English at the end of the 17th century, "coup de grâce" (literally, a "stroke of grace" or "blow of mercy") originally referred to a mercy killing, or the act of putting to death a person or animal who was severely injured and unlikely to recover.
___________________________________________________________________________

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 15, 2019, 08:32:54 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 February 2019  16,542,286 km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 6th lowest, above 2018, 2017, 2016, 2010 and 2006. In the last week Arctic Sea Ice gain has tended to above average, while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent daily loss remained below average apart from the last 2 days.

On average 0 days to minimum. However, the current minimum is  16,249,255 km2 that occurred on the 5th February. Unless there is a very big surprise, this will be the minimum for 2019, and was third lowest in the satellite record since 1979. (See table AA3 attached).

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 14, 2019, 03:14:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,559,771 km2
         
Total Area      
 12,559,771    km2   
 123,493    km2   >
 548,477    k   >
-536,430    k   <
      
Total gain/loss    29    k
Peripheral Seas    9    k
Central Seas__    9    k
Other Seas___    10    k
      
Peripheral Seas      
Bering _______    5    k
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k
Greenland____    6    k
Barents ______    4    k
      
CAB Seas      
Beaufort_____    3    k
CAA_________   -0    k
East Siberian__   -3    k
Central Arctic_    8    k
      
Kara_________    3    k
Laptev_______   -1    k
Chukchi______    1    k
      
Other Seas      
Okhotsk______    14    k
St Lawrence___   -5    k
Hudson Bay___    1    k
Area GAIN 29 k, 7k more than the 2010's average gain of 22k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side (apart from the Okhotsk) and Baffin Bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

The data is the NSIDC 5 day trailing average, so the large daily extent gain will take time to show in the tables. Nevertheless, the data is already showing the effect of the recent change in the location of the temperature differences across the Arctic.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 14, 2019, 08:45:09 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,860,508 km2(February 13, 2019)

- Extent gain 105k, 64k more than the average gain of 41k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 15 k (0.2%) greater than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 94.2 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 26 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.35 million km2 (470k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.32 million km2, (440k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +1.5 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 13, 2019, 05:07:15 PM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/tesla-s-latest-competitor-is-a-15-500-electric-three-wheeler

Canada's Answer to Tesla Is a $15,500 Electric Three-Wheeler
Quote
Carmakers from Tesla Inc. to Nissan Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG are racing to make the car of the future. So far they’ve produced cleaner, quieter but costlier versions of the ones already out there. Profitability has been elusive -- many manufacturers are likely losing money on each unit, but sell in pursuit of future market share, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Electra Meccanica says its quirky reimagination of an automobile aims to redefine the category.

"Tesla is doing a good job on building big cars -- conventional cars that are electric," says Kroll, who earlier worked on electric drive systems for NASA in California and befriended the co-founders of Tesla, Marc Tarpenning and Martin Eberhard.

“This company is producing the car that Elon Musk wishes he were building,” Kroll said in a separate interview with Bloomberg Television. “It is great to produce a $45,000, a $100,000 car or a $250,000 car. But for the masses? A $15,000 car that can get them to stop using gas. That’s creative."

Leona Green, 64, and her son Matthew, 41, were the Solo’s first customers and have been driving it for two years in Vancouver. They park it on the sidewalk in front of the deli they own for catering runs and have ordered a second because they kept fighting over it.

“I almost don’t want everybody having one,” she says. At least a few times a day, she passes out cards with the Solo’s specs, kept on hand to avoid answering the same questions repeatedly.

42
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 13, 2019, 02:34:31 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Bellingshausen & Amundsen Sea Ice area and extent going down - especially area.

43
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 13, 2019, 02:24:22 PM »
NSIDC data from wipneus via file nsidc_ant_nt_detail.txt from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data
as at 12 February 2019


Total Antarctic area and extent basically stalled but now a nudge downwards.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 13, 2019, 02:02:09 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,531,131 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,531,131    km2      
 117,255    km2   >    2010's average.
 551,247    k   >   2018
-538,003    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    13    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___    6    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______    5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 13 k, 2k more than the 2010's average gain of 11k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so, with the Pacific side and Baffin bay tending to warmth and the Atlantic front to cold.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.

45
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: February 13, 2019, 11:56:49 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,648,269 km2(February 12, 2019)

Extent loss of 48k, 14k more than the average loss of 34k for this day.

Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2018, 2017, 2011, and 2006, and looking back further, 1997 and 1993. Table Ant3 attached only goes back to 2003. Ho hum

Extent loss from maximum is 393k km2 (2.5%) less than the 10 year average so far, with on average 98.9% of extent loss for the season done and on average just 7 days to minimum (19th February).

The Perils of Projections

We have reached the time of year when daily extent change is likely to dither above and below zero. On the 5th February the linear projection was for a minimum on the 12th February, with an R2 correlation of 0.7 usually reckoned of some meaning. Now the projection is a minimum on the 5th March, with an R2 correlation of 0.14 usually reckoned as meaningless.

The average remaining melt from this day to minimum would produce a minimum of 2.47 million km2, 320k km2 more than the record low in 2017.  Using the average remaining melt from this day to minimum of the 2016 to 2018 years would give a minimum of 2.55 million km2, 400k km2 more than the record low in 2017.

Most of the remaining ice is at high concentration. With low concentration ice mostly gone, the remaining ice being solid and close to the coast, melt has been below average every day for well over one month - until the last 2 days. Late season extra melt? Maybe, maybe not.



46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:10:51 PM »
Following that polynomial, when is it at zero gerontocrat?
I have not looked - projecting any time into the future, especially that far, using these chart tools is where madness lies. I just added the x2 polynomial to see if it suggested currently volume loss is on an accelerating trend.

What matters is what will change in the Arctic, how that will affect Arctic sea ice, and how that will in turn change the changes in the Arctic and so on........

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 11, 2019, 06:58:48 PM »
And a couple of more graphs - data from Wipneus and Polar Science Center.
Monthly Averages and 365 day averages since 1979

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 11, 2019, 05:40:03 PM »
Here is the volume data presented in the same format as I use for the JAXA ice extent tables and graphs. Daily volume increases mostly above average in January, hence 6th lowest became 7th lowest.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2019, 05:06:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 13,649,459 km2(February 10, 2019)

- Extent gain 42k, 36k more than the average gain of 6k on this day.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 128 k (1.4%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 93.6 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 29 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum extent of 14.20 million km2 (320k >2017's record low maximum). Using the last 5 years average extent gain gives a maximum for 14.14 million km2, (260k >2017).

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and -1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic will remain.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 10, 2019, 05:29:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2019 (5 day trailing average) 12,484,470 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,484,470    km2      
 82,400    km2   >    2010's average.
 386,317    k   >   2018
-481,033    k   <    2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    24    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    12    k   gain
Central Seas__   -9    k   loss
Other Seas___    21    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______    6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -4    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    21    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 24 k, 25k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k on this day.

Other stuff

GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly remains between +3 and +1 degrees over the next week or so. The highly variable +ve and -ve anomalies at various times over the various regions of the Arctic may remain extreme. This may exaggerate the normal variations in daily change in the peripheral seas from gains to losses and back to gains that happens at this time of year.

Temperatures, winds and ocean currents at the periphery, especially the Pacific gateway, the Atlantic Front and Baffin Bay will determine ice gain and loss in these peripheral seas that in turn determine the final outcome of maximum for the year.  Looking at the tables shows how cold and warmth is moving around the Arctic.

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