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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 21, 2020, 05:22:52 PM »
Slightly off-topic given the explicit 365 day period in the title of this thread, but I was wondering what period of time ending today *would* constitute a record.  Surely, for example, the ten-year period ending today has lower average extent than any other 10-year period for which we have data.  I'd bet that's true for five years, too, but it's less sure.  What about two years? 1.5?

Of course, it's entirely possible that 2020 extent will stay low enough to cross under 2012 in some weeks or months, at which point the answer collapses suddenly to one day.   
Look again at the graphs. You will see that the record low 365 day average was reached around the 1st April 2017. 2012 confuses the issue. Yes, in 2012 a record low in August & September, but March 2016 to March 2017 were lower than 2012 for most months.

Last year I thought at one time a new record low would happen in late 2019, simply because of the October monthly average being a record low. But then refreeze kicked in strongly. All 2020 extent has to do is to continue to stay below the 2019 extent, and then maybe in early 2021 to stay below the early 2021 extent for a new record low.

To answer your question (sort of). At the moment it looks as of it will be nearly 4 years since the last record low for a new record low. Before that it was about 4 years from the record low in about April 2013 to the record low on 1 April 2017.

What happens next? Not a clue.


2
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: September 21, 2020, 03:41:37 PM »
nanning, the thread title reflects the ultimate prospects of AI but most of the posts in the thread reflect current SOTA.
It is intertesting to watch the sheer speed at which robot /AI capability is expanding in multiple directions, to diagnose and heal people quicker, and to diagnose threats and kill people quicker to name but two.

Since humans are still just about in control of the process, what could possibly go wrong?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:53:57 PM »
Quote
GlennK: what was so special about 2007?
Indeed, the extreme ice loss in the summer of 2007 really caught people's attention at the time. I came across a couple of assessments made shortly thereafter that attributed the outcome to Arctic conditions not unlike 2020. The ice by now was a lot younger and thiner than in 2007:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Plummets in 2007
J. Stroeve, M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier,  T. Scambos
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008EO020001
 Satellite data reveal that skies under the anticyclone were predominantly clear, fostering strong melt. Persistent southerly winds between the high- and low- pressure centers gave rise to above-average air temperatures north of Siberia that promoted melt and also transported ice away from the Siberian coast.
What I take from 2007 was that was the first year of a significant loss of sea ice extent and area in the Central Arctic Sea, i.e. North of 80 was breached on the Atlantic front, and even more stunning, 85 North was breached North of the ESS (at 165 East).

And now in 2020, to quote https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ on Sept 16th,
Quote
North of Scandinavia and Russia, a very broad sea-ice-free area exists with the ice edge lying near 85 degrees N, far to the north of Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, and Severnaya Zemlya (Northern Land) (Figure 1c). The sharply defined ice edge in this area, between about 0 degrees and 100 degrees longitude, indicates strong compaction of the ice by winds coming from the south and is the furthest north the ice edge has been in this location over the satellite data record.

That ice edge retreated north of 85 North for a few days more.

I have always been convinced by the arguments to support that bathymetry provides resistance to melt along that Atlantic front, but I am also convinced by the simple equation...

Global Heating + Polar Amplification = Resistance is Futile.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:31:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,718,365 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,718,365    km2      
-554,510    km2   <   2010's average.
-487,363    km2   <   2019
-1,417,217    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    40    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 52 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average gain of 23 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 555 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,417 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 487 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 359 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 20-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,812,841 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 22 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 730 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,730 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 614 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 398 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 356 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 21, 2020, 11:41:49 AM »
And a 22k extent loss followed by a zero extent change puts 2020 in the frame again.

For a record low 365 day average in 2020 2020 extent has to be on average 275k less than 2019. On this day it is 330k.

The key for a record low 365 is for 2020 to match the slow refreeze from now to late October in 2019. From late October the 2019 refreeze accelerated. See the daily change graph Sept to Dec attached - (daily change smoothed into the 7 day trailing average).

If 2020 matches 2019 in a rapid refreeze from late October (or earlier) all bets are off.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 21, 2020, 10:56:37 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,723,271 KM2 as at 20-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 0k, 39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 168 k, which is 86 k, 105.5% more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  331 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  735 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  296 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  392 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 172 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.47 million km2, 0.41 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________
Is a 22k extent loss followed by zero change a hint that refreeze may be slowed for a month or three? 
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image for full-size

7
NSIDC Greenland Today have produced  a nearly end-of-season report

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Greenland’s 2020 summer melting: a new normal?
FEATURED August 12, 2020
Melting through the peak of Greenland’s summer melt season has been well above the 1981 to 2010 average, but below the levels of many previous summers of the past decade. While the northeast and southwest areas of the ice sheet had significantly more melt than average, the melt extent over the southeast and northwest coasts was lower than average. The 2020 surface runoff to date is lower than in recent years.







8
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: September 20, 2020, 08:51:33 PM »
Perhaps the wealthy need a “Minimum Required Distribution” each year of a specific percent of their wealth, which would increase with their age — like the 401(k) in the U.S. does.  But the wealthy’s MRD proceeds can’t be used to further enrich themselves or their family.

Once upon a time the rich paid more taxes than the poor.
But as Warren Buffet said some time ago - "My secretary pays a higher tax rate than I do, Can that be right?".

Tax laws are written by the rich for the rich and passed by a Congress that is full up people who are bought and sold. Is the UK any better? Yes, but we are playing catch-up as fast as possible.

Any system that is corrupt ends up in the same place. And if you think your 401(k) is going to be worth more each year, ho hum. For years the SEC has allowed pension plans to assume real growth beyond reality. Even the actuaries have been compromised.




9
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: September 20, 2020, 08:21:13 PM »
Gerontocrat.
I'm reading it, it gives reason to what, all together, we highlighted this year (this forum is good !!).
On the other hand, there is at least one point that leaves me perplexed and on which I will intervene in the next few days (but the article, I believe, was written in 2018).
Picked up the article from a link from one of the standard emails from Skeptical Science.

& yes, the number of times I read a paper / article and say to myself, but it was on the ASIF yonks ago

10
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 20, 2020, 08:10:48 PM »
A Sunday evening speculation...

They tell us it takes a few months for CO2 emissions to fully mix in the atmosphere, but even so here goes.

Offsetting emissions reductions from COVID reducing economic activity are a good many megatons of CO2 from the wildfires. A double whammy is that several million acres of forests and grasslands that should have been photosynthesising were burning instead. In some parts of the world it has been very dry and too hot, that reduces photosynthesis. In other parts very wet - floods, that also are not conducive to phtosynthesis.

Hence high CO2 ppm gain? On the otther hand it might simply be that the land and ocean CO2 sinks are failing. Land use changes & ocean acidification. 

At any rate, one more nail in the coffin.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 20, 2020, 02:26:01 PM »
I suspect it may be a pan-Earth problem.
Will Musk take it to Mars?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2020, 02:24:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,666,410 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,666,410    km2      
-583,011    km2   <   2010's average.
-461,471    km2   <   2019
-1,452,088    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    28    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    8    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    18    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 28 k, 6 k more than the 2010's average gain of 22 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 583 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,452 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 135 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 461 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 354 k more than 2012      
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,790,945 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 11 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average gain of 9k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 736 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,745 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 605 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 407 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 373 k more than 2012
_________________________________________
No surprises today. I thinks its time to look at what the rest of the year might bring. Tomorrow.         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 20, 2020, 01:20:57 PM »
One of my brothers is in Marseilles. (He hates UK winters)
Just had a text message from him

Quote
Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold....
Trying Italy on Monday

My reply?
Quote
"No hiding place"

Italy data now showing increase in death rate...(though from a low value from 6 to 13).
UK data ditto by even greater acceleration. (death rate up from 7 to 19).

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:15:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,723,586 KM2 as at 19-Sep-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 22k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 169 k, which is 87 k, 105.8%, more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  287 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  695 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  353 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  375 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 173 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.51 million km2, 0.37 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________
N.B. Click  on image for full-size

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« on: September 19, 2020, 03:46:54 PM »
As the melting season is over, here are some NSIDC Area, & PIOMAS Volume & Thickness graphs

The Peripheral Seas
PIOMAS Volume is well above the 2010's average for most of the melting season.
NSIDC Area is well below the 2010's average for most of the melting season.
As a result thickness looks high.

As area reduces to well under 250k km2, and volume under 250km3, small variations in the volume and /or area data cause wild swings in the thickness measurement. I think these should be discounted, more likely representing limitations in the NSIDC sensors and / or the PIOMAS model rather than real changes in thickness.

16
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 19, 2020, 02:46:33 PM »
Hey!
Another good topic
I take this opportunity to provide a link to a recent study, which focused on glaciers and their speed, and about the total mass of ice, on the continent .
It is not directly related to the subject, but I find it interesting and I did not find a topic about continental Antarctica ice
Thank you for your contributions
The Antarctic Ice Sheet thread has got loads of stuff about Antarctica, including ice mass, glaciers etc etc
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2903.msg227406.html#msg227406

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2020, 02:37:22 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,638,100 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,638,100    km2      
-588,956    km2   <   2010's average.
-426,064    km2   <   2019
-1,468,562    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    6    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___   -1    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 6 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 589 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,469 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 175 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 426 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 354 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,779,679 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 23 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average gain of 5k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 739 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,755 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 412 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 382 k more than 2012

___________________________________________
With NSIDC daily area up for a second day to 2,709,430 km2 looks like the NSIDC 5 day trailing average AREA minimum was on 17th September at 2,631,888 km2.

And with the NSIDC daily extent minimum way back on 11th September, it looks like the NSIDC 5 day trailing average EXTENT minimum was on 15th September at 3,736,632 km2.

Mind you, that has not stopped another drop in Central Arctic Sea (5 day) Area & Extent.

         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« on: September 19, 2020, 10:17:22 AM »
This year's mid-Sep update brings with it a measure of confusion - is the minimum in or not. One can see a clear correlation between volume and single-day NSIDC area. It really does not help that NSIDC area for the 16th came in as identical to the data from the 15th - 2,583,432 km2. Has this been updated? Does anyone know what really happened on the 16th?
Nope- but on the 17th the one day area was 2,656,684 km2 (https://cryospherecomputing.tk/).
NSIDC data for today might put the seal on the 15th as the day on which NSIDC daily area reached minimum.

The same date for the minimum of JAXA extent, NSIDC extent and Area & PIOMAS volume would be a minor miracle.

19
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 19, 2020, 10:00:02 AM »
This is a huge deal in itself, calculated below as a trillion tons of CO2 emission equivalent. (No one gives a hoot about local DMI 80N graphics.)

The last sentence of the abtract in "Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean" seems to agree with the above sentence.

Quote
This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest
 that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.

IMHO, this is the wrong way to understand the consequences of a BOE.  Annualizing and globalizing the local impact of the loss of sea ice minimizes its impact.  A BOE is more impactful for the magnitude of the local change than for the potential increase in global temperatures.
I would go even further, and suggest a future BOE is somewhat of a distraction - by just looking at the climatic effects of a BOE we can end up ignoring the here and now.
And by concentrating on Albedo we can end up ignoring the climatic effect of open water in winter.

There is a study that links a very cold winter in North America with low winter sea ice in the Bering Sea. As I write this, it looks like some real weather will hit the central Arctic from Siberia by mid-week. Insolation will be minimal, but that weather will be travelling over large areas of open water where a few years ago it would have been ice. there are climatic effects in the here and now.

A BOE will likely be just another marginal addition to climatic effects accumulated over the years.

20
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: September 19, 2020, 08:17:13 AM »
Wildlife needs habitat - that's a problem, for wildlife.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/19/shocking-wilderness-the-size-of-mexico-lost-worldwide-in-just-13-years-study-finds
'Shocking': wilderness the size of Mexico lost worldwide in just 13 years, study finds

Researchers say loss of 1.9m square kilometres of intact ecosystems will have ‘profound implications’ for biodiversity

Quote
The loss of 1.9m square kilometres (735,000 sq miles) of intact ecosystems would have “profound implications” for the planet’s biodiversity, the study’s authors said.

Using mostly satellite imagery, 17 scientists across six countries examined the human footprint across the globe and how it had changed between 2000 and 2013. Almost 20% of the earth’s surface had deteriorated, the study found, while human pressure had eased on only six per cent of the planet. Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Australia held the largest intact areas, together responsible for 60% of the world’s most untouched places.

Some 1.1m sq km (425,000 sq miles) of wilderness identified from imagery in 2000 had some human impact 13 years later. Tropical savannahs and grasslands lost the most area to human pressure, the study, published in the journal One Earth, found.

Lead researcher Brooke Williams, of the University of Queensland, told the Guardian: “We were expecting there to be high levels of intact ecosystem and wilderness loss, but the results were shocking. “We found substantial area of intact ecosystems had been lost in just 13 years – nearly two million square kilometres – which is terrifying to think about. Our findings show that human pressure is extending ever further into the last ecologically intact and wilderness areas.”

Rainforests in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea that were both rich with species had lost large areas to human activities. Conversion of habitats to cash crops, including palm oil, was a big contributor to the losses.

The study did not try to identify the cause of the losses, but Williams said the direct clearing of landscapes for farming was a known major driver.

Co-author Prof James Watson, also of the University of Queensland and the global conservation group the Wildlife Conservation Society, said: ‘The data does not lie. Humanity keeps on shrinking the amount of land that other species need to survive.”

“In a time of rapid climate change, we need to proactively secure the last intact ecosystems on the planet, as these are critical in the fight to stop extinction and halt climate change,” Watson said. Looking across 221 nation states, only 26 had at least half of their land intact, the study found. In 2013, 41% of the world’s surface was either wilderness or was mostly intact.

Williams, who is also a conservationist at the Wildlife Conservation Society, said the losses undermined efforts to mitigate climate change because intact lands acted as storage spaces for carbon dioxide. She said: “Proactively protecting Earth’s intact ecosystems is humanity’s best mechanism for protecting against climate change, ensuring large-scale ecological and evolutionary processes persist, and safeguarding biological diversity into the future.”

The paper’s authors write: “Halting the loss of intact ecosystems cannot be achieved alongside current trajectories of development, population growth, and resource consumption.”

Prof Bill Laurance, the director of James Cook University’s centre for tropical environmental and sustainability science in Queensland, who was not involved in the study, said its findings were scary. “Humans are trashing much of the planet – no doubt about that,” he said. “The tropics are under particular pressure, and it’s not just forest destruction but also the loss of other habitat types, such as tropical savannahs and native grasslands, that are occurring apace.”

He said it was notable that tropical grasslands were heavily impacted because these were more easily converted to pasture or farmland. Declines in rainforests in south-east Asia were also “among the biologically richest ecosystems on Earth”. One example, he said, was the rainforests of Sumatra that were home to critically endangered species of orangutan, as well as tigers, elephants and rhinos. That country’s forests were either gone or being devastated.

He said: “If we don’t halt such changes, we’re going to see the continued rapid disruption and loss of Earth’s ecosystems, including the biologically richest habitats on the planet. And along with that will be continued declines in the quality of life for people.”

The study comes after research earlier this week found that protected areas around the world, such as national parks and world heritage areas, were becoming isolated. Only about 10% of the world’s protected areas were connected to similar habitats outside their borders. The research, in the journal Nature Climate Change, warned that as the globe warmed, species would look to move. But if protected areas were isolated, those species would have nowhere to go.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18457-x
Just ten percent of the global terrestrial protected area network is structurally connected via intact land
Quote
Abstract
Land free of direct anthropogenic disturbance is considered essential for achieving biodiversity conservation outcomes but is rapidly eroding. In response, many nations are increasing their protected area (PA) estates, but little consideration is given to the context of the surrounding landscape. This is despite the fact that structural connectivity between PAs is critical in a changing climate and mandated by international conservation targets. Using a high-resolution assessment of human pressure, we show that while ~40% of the terrestrial planet is intact, only 9.7% of Earth’s terrestrial protected network can be considered structurally connected. On average, 11% of each country or territory’s PA estate can be considered connected. As the global community commits to bolder action on abating biodiversity loss, placement of future PAs will be critical, as will an increased focus on landscape-scale habitat retention and restoration efforts to ensure those important areas set aside for conservation outcomes will remain (or become) connected.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 19, 2020, 12:37:29 AM »
This is the best thread on the Internet. Thanks, everyone.

Neven, I join many others in thanking you for hosting us and making all this possible, and thanking Oren also for his excellent moderation.  This is such a valuable service to us as individuals.  You provide vital leadership in spreading understanding of what is happening to our beleaguered planet.
I was looking for a place for years and luckily for me I found it - the ASIF.

22
Science / Re: Permafrost Melt, Perhaps Not As Bad As We Feared...
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:58:28 PM »
No... worse than we feared... at least in Yakutsk

Follow the link & watch the video.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-54195656


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September, mid-monthly update)
« on: September 18, 2020, 10:35:12 PM »
Thanks Wipneus..

PIOMAS @ 16 September analysed in my standard format

Volume loss did finish on 11th September, but,, started again on the 14th September to a new minimum volume for the year of 4.059 thousand km3, just 9 km3 above the 2019 minimum, and more or less at trend.

The scale of the volume losses in the last 3 days must be linked to the extent and area losses in the Central Arctic Sea. Would the PIOMAS model assume that to be loss of thick ice?

So it does not look as if volume loss has finished. So no definitive outcome until the month end data appears.


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:38:03 PM »
Definitely 'maybe' ..

 Q .. can anyone show me any of the almost 30,000 sq kms of sea ice that currently appears to reside in NSIDC's Kara ? I seem to be in a parallel universe . How it has been increasing lately in the warm waters is also beyond my ken .. b.c.

It seems that NSIDC since forever has shown ice where it is not. See image.
Now they and we have to stick with it, as getting it right for this year means changing data going way back in the satellite record.

By now you should be used to being in a parallel universe - Global warming? No problem, more CO2 is good news.


25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:27:29 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/greece-lashed-by-rare-hurricane-force-storm
Medicane
Quote
Greece’s national meteorological office issued a red alert for the Ionian isles, Peloponnese peninsula, central Greece and Euboea (Evia), warning of “severe rain and thunderstorms and gale-force winds” through the weekend. Crete, it said, would also be affected on Sunday.

Along the shores of western Greece on Friday, waves were described as 7 metres high. Later in the day, in the region of Fthiotida emergency services were inundated with calls to rescue citizens from flooded homes.

Likened to a hurricane more commonly seen in the Caribbean, the Ianos storm was expected to hit Athens on Friday evening into Saturday. Nearly half of the entire population of Greece lives in the greater Athens area, with parts of the capital particularly prone to flooding.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:00:26 PM »
And another day's oddness in the Central Arctic Sea ... but perhaps the last day

In the last four days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 117k.
Central Arctic Sea extent declined by just another 4k on this day and is now a new record low minimum at 82k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

And just maybe some real weather hits the central arctic by middle of next week

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:49:19 PM »
NSIDC did put a revised update out at 10.30 Colorado time. I was out buying booze.
But here it is.

NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,631,888 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,631,888    km2      
-565,947    km2   <   2010's average.
-383,304    km2   <   2019
-1,469,683    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -23    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    0    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 10 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 566 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,470 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 184 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 383 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 367 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,756,383 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 13 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 757 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,783 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 593 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 456 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 370 k more than 2012

_______________________________________
Extent definitely past the minimum.
Daily area probably past the minimum.
Maybe, or maybe not, just one day more for the 5-day average area vto reduce a teeny bit more.

people always seem to look for a clean switch from melting to freezing season & vice-versa, but that's not how it works.
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         


28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:16:15 PM »
The economist is a political publication, just like any of the other news media.  It's just another newsrag. 
About 30 years ago the Economist published an article on how the price to buy an unwanted girl child in rural China for the sex trade had gone up from USD 50 to 250 USD, due to improved living standards from "building socialism with capitalist tools".

The writer said this was A GOOD THING, as it proved increasing wealth in China was lifting all boats.

At which point I stopped reading the Economist and have never read it since.


29
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:01:32 PM »
I was listening to a woman on BBC Radio 4 on how she deals with depression.

One escape route for her is to chill out watching the 24/7 Webcam from The Walrus Islands State Game Sanctuary (WISGS) - "one of the largest gathering places in the world for Pacific Walruses. The most popular haul-out in the WISGS is Round Island, where the walrus cam is located on Main Beach. Please enjoy watching up to 15,000 of these massive marine mammals with Explore's live video feed from walrus cam." https://www.alaskacenters.gov/explore/attractions/multimedia/webcams/round-island-walrus


30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 18, 2020, 01:32:47 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries data as at 17 september

meanwhile, back in Europe, things are not going so well.

Italy data
Daily new cases seem stable at around 1,400 per day, as do daily deaths at 10 per day. But the increases may have stopped rising, but there is no decline as winter approaches.

Active cases were at minimum on 30th July at 12k, but are now at 41k.

UK data
Daily new cases still on the rsie, more than duble this month to a 7 day average of over 3,300, Daily deaths (7 day average) also doubled this month to 14 per day.

Very small compared with the USA, but UK health scientists are really worried.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 18, 2020, 01:16:51 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries data as at 17 september


USA Data. Despite the best efforts of the HHS the data is not that encouraging.

7 day average daily deaths went down to 750 by the 10th september but have risen to 840 per day.
7 day average daily new cases went down to 35k by 10th September but are back up to 40.6k per day.

Deaths at 202k have just breached the lower limit of (if I remember rightly) what was Fauci's worst-case scenario of 200 to 400k deaths.

That the HHS wrote and posted guidance on the CDC website without scientific review and aginst scientific evidence or knowledge of CDC is a new low in the USA's standing in the world.

32
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 18, 2020, 12:33:37 PM »
Is Central Arctic a combination of the blue seas or a separate entry?
I'm pretty sure it's only the Central Arctic Sea - as in the NSIDC definition of 3.2 million km2 which is MAISIE Area 11.


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 18, 2020, 10:41:57 AM »
The expected(?) slow refreeze became a fast refreeze. At this rate a new record low 365 day average heads over the horizon.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:55:19 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,734,834 KM2 as at 17-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 105k, 103 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 180 k, 98 k, 119.6% more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  229 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  559 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  521 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  331 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of extent gains from minimum to maximum done, and 175 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.58 million km2, 0.30 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________
A century break - Did anyone see that one coming? I certainly did not. I wonder what NSIDC will come up with today.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

35
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 17, 2020, 08:28:40 PM »
Nico Sun (aka Tealight) has produced some really good visuals on Albedo Warming Potential. (see links below).

The table and graph attached show how sea ice loss to date, especially in the 7 seas of the High Arctic,  has merely allowed a fraction of the AWP to be released compared with an ice-free Arctic.

The third graph shows that nevertheless increased AWP to date has the potential to significantly affect the incidence of ice-free days.

It was the work by Nico Sun & others and a comment by A-Team some time ago about the seas being in transition from icy deserts to open water that gave me the idea to show open water instead of ice in graphs The last graph is an example..

____________________________________________________
Noco Sun limks....
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/awp-region.html
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 04:55:25 PM »
NICO Sun's graph uses NSIDC daily area which as of 16 Sept is 2.583 million km2, some 58k km2 less than the 16 Sept 5 day trailing average of 2.641 million km2. So 5-day trailing average area loss will probably keep going for at least a couple of days longer.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 04:38:49 PM »
Gerontocrat - I wonder if you shouldn't be using the 2016 minimum for area comparison instead of the 2016 daily value now that we have passed 2016s minimum for the year?
'- 2020 Area is 170 xxx k less more than 2016 minimum'

Since this is generally about melt season to minimum that would be more in keeping with the general tenor.

One other question on your area and extent graphs - these are based on the standard definition of the central arctic seas and not on Wipneus' definitions? I believe he has a larger CAB and smaller surrounding seas
The daily posts look at the current day and compare with the same date in other years.

But as we are perhaps, or perhaps not, at the minimum area for 2020, I attach the comparison of today's current 2020 minimum with the minima pf previous years,, and yes..
- the minimum in 2016 is 192k less than the current 2020 minimum,
- the minimum in 2012 is 393k less than the current 2020 minimum.
But I am waiting until the area is at the minum for sure before posting any thoughts on the season end.

I also attach the comparison between the arctic basin seas' areas as in NSIDC, and as developed by the late lamented Cryosphere Today and used by Wipneus in all his files including the PIOMAS volume analyses. The seas affected are Central Arctic (CAB vs CAS), Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort (& CAA marginally).
____________________________________
click image for full size

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 02:49:55 PM »
Oddness in the Central Arctic Sea continues for yet another day...

Just two out of 14 seas continue to keep this melting season open, the Central Arctic Sea and the East Siberian Sea (ESS).

In the last three days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 90k. Central Arctic Sea extent has declined by just over 20k and is now a new record low minimum at 78k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

So the melting season stays open due to area loss continuing at the northernmost ice edge. That is odd.


Meanwhile, in the last two days the ESS has lost over 15k area and 21k extent.

This oddness now qualifies as very odd?

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 02:43:54 PM »
& NSIDC Area refuses to admit the melting season is over ....

NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,641,426 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,641,426    km2      
-526,887    km2   <   2010's average.
-343,161    km2   <   2019
-1,455,177    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -29    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    4    k   gain
Central Seas___   -33    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -36    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area LOSS on this day 29 k, 58 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 527 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,455 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 170 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 343 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 391 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,743,424 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT GAIN on this day 7 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average loss of 2k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 771 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,797 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 592 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 496 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 355 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 01:54:14 PM »
Whoops - corrected.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2020, 09:19:47 AM »
3 days of significant extent increases says to me - freezing season has commenced, even if NSIDC 5 day average data is still dithering around the minimum. So here is the first freezing season 2020-21 analysis.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  3,630,218 KM2 as at 16-Sep-2020

- Extent gain on this day 25k, 34 k more than the average LOSS on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 75 k, 7 k, 8.0% more than the 10 year average of 82 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  361 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  603 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  453 k MORE than 2012
- Extent is  440 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 0.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 176 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Whoops:-
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Whoops again...
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 minimum maximum of 13.88 million km2.

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.48 million km2, 0.40 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.

I really should rescue my brain from the car park before doing this stuff.

_____________________________________________
Caveat:- Last year it looked really possible that the low minimum and slow refreeze would produce a low maximum. It did not work out like that.
______________________________
N.B. Click once on an image to make it full-size

42
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 15 Sep 2020.

Melt did a small blip up to 1.15%.

Precipitation was low this week but on this day a big dump..

Cumulative SMB daily gain high at 4.4 GT, for the year 18.4 GT, a little bit below average.

There may be a final blip of melt today (Wednesday)
A succession of lows bringing a mixture of rain and snow may well mean precipitation is high.

SMB gains - maybe some large - in prospect.

Updates will be less frequent from now, depending on any  unusual SMB gains or lack of gains.
_________________________________________________________________
Click on images for full size view.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 16, 2020, 05:44:01 PM »
If they make the deliveries as estimated, it's a case of satisfactory progress.
No estimates on solar energy?

There was some conversations day or two(?) back about whther this thread is redundant. I am sure it is not.

The road to glory is full of hazards - known risks now, e.g.
- US & China get really serious about their cold war. China confiscates politically sensitive assets - e.g the Shanghai factory. Far-fetched**?
- Covid-19 comes back with a roar, economies totter and fall.

In the future? A Bevy of Black Swans is out there. Those who think it's a case of how many new factories and how soon in a seamless glidepath to the Sunny Uplands are doomeed to disappointment.
______________________________________
** In 1911 an infuential book was published claiming that the economies of the European Great Powers were so intertwined that a war between them was inconceivable. Ho hum, that didn't end well.





44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 16, 2020, 03:46:33 PM »
They are aware because of the Internet.

I'm not arguing that.  I'm just saying that most of the internet generation I interact with get their awareness from the internet but also their apathy.  They know but don't want to act.

We may see tens or hundreds of thousands demonstrating. They are aware and they are want to act, as the few always have.

That masks the hundreds of millions, or billions, who are aware but don't want to act.

When I see the internet provide both information and action, I'll agree that it has done it's job.
The Russian October Revolution was just a few people taking advantage of a Russia exhausted by the devastation and loss of life from WW1.

There is a saying from the US - it it ain't broken, don't fix it.
My version is "It can't be fixed until it's broke".

Perhaps the UK, with its incompetent government screwing up Covide-19 response and likely to screw up Brexit, will try its best to go be the first OECD country to go bust.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will 2020 JAXA extent cross 2012?
« on: September 16, 2020, 03:27:18 PM »
Here are a couple of graphs to enlighten / confuse the issue (delete as applicable).

As you can see, on Oct 13, as 2019 extent gain had slowed and 2012 extent gain had increased, 2109 become lowest,

And on Oct 27, as 2019 extent gain had suddenly increased while 2016 extent gain remained low, 2016 became lowest.

With all that ocean heat, apparently well beow the surface SSTs, a slow 2020 extent gain would look likely, but the last 2 days JAXA extent gains contradict that.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2020, 02:53:51 PM »
Oddness in the Central Arctic Sea continues...

Just two out of 14 seas are keeping this melting season open, the Central Arctic Sea and the East Siberian Sea (ESS).

In the last two days Central Arctic Sea area has declined by just over 50k, while Central Arctic Sea extent has declined by just over 16k and is now a new record low minimum at 71k less than the 2012 minimum. And this melt has mainly happened at or farther north than 85 North.

So the melting season stays open due to extent and area loss continuing at the northernmost ice edge. That is odd.


Meanwhile, in the last two days the ESS has lost over 10k area and 15k extent.

By now, average area gain approaches 30k, while extent loss average is at 1 or 2k. How long will this oddness continue?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2020, 02:26:29 PM »
While JAXA data says the melting season has ended NSIDC data says not yet...

NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,670,164 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,670,164    km2      
-469,334    km2   <   2010's average.
-300,762    km2   <   2019
-1,418,712    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -25    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    3    k   gain
Central Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -33    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 25 k, 53 k less than the 2010's average gain of 28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 469 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,419 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 123 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 301 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 421 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,736,632 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 4 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 0k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 780 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,808 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 568 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 526 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 333 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 05:10:14 PM »
Odd things going on on the Central Arctic Sea....

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 04:54:43 PM »
What a switch round - area losses in the Central Arctic Sea make it possible that the minimum is not yet reached (see Glennbuck's post above).

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,695,225 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,695,225    km2      
-416,027    km2   <   2010's average.
-286,915    km2   <   2019
-1,385,911    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -24    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 25 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 416 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,386 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 66 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 287 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 444 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,740,476 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 6 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 2k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 776 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,810 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 520 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 554 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 322 k more than 2012
         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click on an image to see it full-size         

50
And GFZ have just updated their GRACE-FO data to July - so here are the graphs .

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