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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/21/john-kerry-climate-crisis-joe-biden-envoy

First the good news...

Quote
John Kerry commits US to climate crisis fight

Then....

Quote
Kerry, the former US secretary of state, acknowledged that America had been absent from the international effort to contain dangerous global heating during Donald Trump’s presidency but added that “today no country and no continent is getting the job done”.

There will need to be a “wholesale transformation of the global economy” if the world is to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, Kerry said. He said it was necessary for coal to be phased out five times faster than recent trends, the planet’s tree cover to be increased five times faster, renewable energy to be ramped up six times faster and a transition to electric vehicles to be 22 times faster than present.

“We need to all move together, because today very few are on a trajectory of the steep reductions needed to meet even current goals, let alone the targets we need to avert catastrophic damage,” Kerry said.

Optimism is fine - but needs a dose of realism to motivate kicking arse to make it happen.

2
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 21, 2021, 04:26:37 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55744470
Tom Hanks hosts star-studded concert for Joe Biden's inauguration
Others suggested a prediction previously made on The Simpsons, that Hanks would address the nation during a moment of "national chaos", had now come true.



3
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 11:07:31 PM »
Wonder how much America’s southern border wall grew under President Trump? The answer is 47 miles, raising the total walled distance along the U.S.-Mexico border from 654 miles when Trump took office to now 701 miles. (The entire border is 1,954 miles long.)
Sometimes the bad can be made good

Pink seesaws across US-Mexico border named Design of the Year 2020


American and Mexican families enjoying the Teeter Totter Wall, which crosses the Mexican border with US

4
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 10:27:51 PM »
A really dumb comic strip. Biden isn't a tool of the so-called military-industrial complex, and he actually does give a damn about climate change. Whoever wrote this junk would know that if they bothered to look at his climate plan.
It is cerainly true that the term "military-industrial complex" is somewhat last century (warning by Eisenhower at the end of his Presidency).

The military-industrial complex is very much a junior partner these days.
It has been replaced mostly by Wall Street / Financial Institutions and now also by Big-Tech (though they may have blown it).

It is also certainly true that Biden is a Corporate Democrat to the core. I was interested to note that Amazon was one of the corporate donors invited to the inauguration. (Were any ordinary members of the public invited?)

The smart Wall Street money has clocked that the real money is to be made in the new industries linked to climate change. Fossil fuel companies and legacy automakers are already feeling the chill. Hence a bold climate change plan is pushing at an open door. Though will that just be promoting renewables + EVs, or will it include actively erecting obstacles to fossil fuel investments?

The smart Wall Street money also knows it needs internationalism - including smart immigrants. Though that internationalism is likely to be limited as it seems many Democrats and Republicans share various shades of protectionism.

The real test will be doing something about economic / education / housing etc etc inequality. Infrastructure spending - no problem $$$.

A more progressive taxation regime? Now we are talking hardball.

I hope Biden gets much of his agenda through. Though if he does I will be jealous as our idiot Boris leads us into permanent decline on this side of the pond.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January, mid-monthly update)
« on: January 20, 2021, 06:31:50 PM »
More analysis derived from the PIOMAS data from Wipneus

The January monthly average graph is attached, using actual data to 15 Jan and average volume gain from 10 to 31 Jan giving a monthly average of 15.6 thousand km3. This is 120 km3 less than the trend value - less than half a year ahead of trend. This would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 975km3 more than Jan 2017.

It should be noted that the Jan 2017 was 2,200 km3 or 8 years below the linear trend. One way looking at the 2021 Jan average is that over half that 2017 2,200km3 deviation has been clawed back by Jan 2021.

Also attached is a table and graph of the 365 day trailing average volume . It is still 891 km3 above the record low on 31 August 2017, but is currently declining at 2km3 per day, some 2 1/2 times the long-term average. It is certainly possible that a new record low could be reached in 2022, but in 2021? - highly unlikely.

6
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 20, 2021, 02:44:15 PM »
A view from AussieLand

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/20/we-made-it-happy-united-states-presidential-inauguration-day-everyone
We made it! Happy United States presidential inauguration day everyone!
First Dog on the Moon


Click for larger & easier to read images

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2021, 08:22:12 PM »
from NSIDC Data

There is usually a record breaker somewhere. The St Lawrence is at record low sea ice for the time of year both in Area (4 days) and in Extent (2 days).

Given that this sea is very much the smallest sea with the max sea ice extent in March well below 200 k in recent years, it will probably not be that significant is the wider scheme of things.

8
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: January 14, 2021, 11:44:40 AM »
Temperature dependence of global photosynthesis

The linked reference concludes with regard to the terrestrial biosphere that:

"Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040."
And that excludes the effects of land-use changes that are already threatening the land-based carbon sinks.

People just don't seem to get that just reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels is not enough

9
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 11:22:37 AM »
be cause & gerontocrat:
I notice that the most cogent arguments you can make against my linked article are, basically, to foam at the mouth.
Tom, what kind of reaction did you expect?

Trump lost the election fair and square, then discredited the results, pressured election officials and when all this failed, sent his violent mob to the Congress to stop the legal process of declaring Biden the new president. Fortunately only 5 people died. Even more fortunate is the strength of the American democratic institutions, although I doubt we have seen the end of this.

To us living outside the US, Trump behaved like a caricature 1960's African dictator. (Apologies for all Africans, but the post-colonial decades were not very stable on the continent.)

The post you linked compared attempted coup to protests against police brutality. Stupid claims rarely get smart responses.
Scum like Trump and his Acolytes often use "equivalence" to defend evil. A protest against police who have made a sick joke out of "to protect and serve" is presented as equivalent to the (bungled) attempt to impose a fascist dictatorship.

The idea is to force me to debate this, which forces me accept that equivalence. My answer is no. The man that wrote that article is evil. End of. FIN.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 13, 2021, 05:25:21 PM »
UK deaths today 1,564.
To put that in perspective, an equivalent figure for the USA based on population would be around 7,500.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 12, 2021, 10:13:14 PM »
You should follow the link and watch the video to see yet another reason for why perhaps the USA should be put on suicide watch.

Covid-19: Alabama crowds ignore coronavirus to celebrate championship

Fans of the University of Alabama football team gathered in the streets of Tuscaloosa in Alabama, ignoring social distancing. They were celebrating the university's third national championship in the past six years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-55641084


12
Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 12, 2021, 09:29:03 PM »
Quote
Based on the preliminary set of data for the year, the authors estimate that overall US emissions fell below 1990 levels for the first time in three decades.
Three decades ago was the beginning of the 1990s, so is this using a bunch of pixels to say nothing, or is it arcane philosophy?
Such uncaring waste. It's about time we took reducing pixel emissions seriously.

13
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2021, 02:10:57 PM »
Jaxa Data - a bit more

Antarctic Sea Ice - How average can it get?

The plume shows the erratic nature of extent change over the years.

I attach the graph of the current estimate of the January monthly average. As you can see, the linear change trend is an enormously SMALL 811 Km2 gain per year with an R2 value of 0.00. At 4.7 million the average would be about 200k below that meaningless trend, or more meaningfully about 200k below the 42 year January average.

Meanwhile, the 365 day trailing average is going up - and possibly in around 2 months will reach the 42 year average of 11.6 million km2.

After 42 years of ups and downs one ends up back where one started, But AGW has happened, the AIS is losing mass. But Antarctic sea ice extent does not seem to be a nice simple metric on which to track the impact of AGW.

14
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 10, 2021, 09:31:11 PM »
What we need is a "get off my plane" moment

https://youtu.be/jw3PJftd-_E?t=12

15
A site I like to check regularly to watch snow cover is https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
It appears to have gone off line.
Does anyone know of an alternative site?
This one?
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/snow-cover/nhland/11

Lots of menu options

16
The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 10, 2021, 12:42:11 PM »
A view from Kenya

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/09/capitol-storming-us-failed-state-kenya-patrick-gathara
Papa Don's failed state: the US as seen from Kenya

Quote
We had all been bamboozled over the course of decades to believe the US really was what it said it was – a shining city on a hill, a beacon for the nations – not what it did. It was a first-world country that at times behaved like the third-world “shithole countries” (Donald Trump) where the rest of us live. The charade continued even after this with Joe Biden proclaiming that “the scenes of chaos at the Capitol do not reflect the true America, do not represent who we are”.

Not true. In the light of Trump’s self-immolation, I experienced an epiphany. America was not a first world country behaving like a third world “shithole country” –it was a first world shithole country.

The fact is the US had long been such. Its election system was an anachronistic mess long before the storming of the Capitol. Its imperial presidency is still the stuff of third world nightmares and its sycophantic legislature is reminiscent of our daytime realities. It may have more stuff and bigger guns, but at heart the west is simply a richer version of the rest.

I came to see that my thread was not about reporting the US as an African country, as some have suggested. Rather it was about covering it as first world countries should be covered – whether diseased and ethnically divided, in North America or in sub-Scandinavian Europe, or beyond, whether nuclear-armed and oil-rich, with term limits or governed for decades on end by nonagenarian monarchs. We should forgo the propaganda and look at America as America truly is, with all its failures and hypocrisies.

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them,” Maya Angelou told us. America had done just that. I just needed to believe it.

With that, the world was put to rights.

Patrick Gathara is a Kenyan political cartoonist, satirist and writer. His Twitter handle is @gathara

17
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 09, 2021, 07:51:01 PM »
A picture is worth a thousand words

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 06, 2021, 03:33:01 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 05-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,115,889 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,115,889    km2      
-331,077    km2   <   2010's average.
-484,697    km2   <   2020
 238,077    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change   -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    38    k   gain
Central Seas___   -40    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
Bering _______    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -23    k   loss
         
Sea ice area LOSS on this day 2 k, 55 k less than the 2010's average gain of 53 k         
         
- Area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 331 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 238 k more than 2017         
- Area is 11 k more than 2016         
- Area is 485 k less than 2020          
- Area is 763 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 05-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,643,710 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 31 k less than the 2010's average gain of 49k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 232 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 22 k less than 2017         
- EXTENT is 71 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 367 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 616 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2021, 02:54:58 PM »
Could the SSW be a game changer for at least the rest of this month?

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/
Quote
A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) started in the Northern Hemisphere at 30-hPa around 4 January 2021.

Stratospheric Warming
   The Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is a phenomenon characterized by a rapid increase in polar temperatures in the stratosphere. The temperature increases more than a few dozen degrees in a few days in the boreal winter. In some cases the westerly polar night jet disappears and easterly winds appear during the warming. JMA is monitoring SSWs as one of the Regional Warming Centers. The warming is called a "Minor Warming", when the polar temperature increases more than 25 degrees in a period of a week or less at any stratospheric level. If the zonal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degrees latitude and the net zonal mean zonal winds become easterly at 60 degrees latitude at 10 hPa (32 km) or below, it is classified as a "Major Warming".

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 06, 2021, 12:10:44 PM »

... Clinical trials found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine had only 52 percent efficacy after just one dose, but that a second dose boosted efficacy to 95 percent. Many fear that high-profile instances of vaccine recipients contracting the coronavirus before they receive the second dose, or in the 10 days before their immune response to the first dose kicks in, will sow distrust and lead people to believe the vaccine is not effective.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1346662182172426240

Doesn’t this call into question the @BorisJohnson and @MattHancock idea of leaving longer period between 1st and 2nd #vaccine?
Yes.
But we have a Prime Minister who can't resist a short cut, and it's us who end up in the bramble bush.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 06, 2021, 10:39:57 AM »
Hi Gerontocrat,
I was wondering if it was possible for 2018/2019 to be added to the graph for those of here who enjoy the horse race? :).
It was March 18 that saw a maximum of 13 .89 million km2 that was almost a dead tie with the March 2016 record low maximum of 13. 88 million km2.

So - just for you....

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,328,458 KM2 as at 05-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 87k, 44 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,774 k, which is 559 k, 7% more than the 10 year average of 8,215 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  274 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  159 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  95 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  159 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  189 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 82.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 62 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.06 million km2, 0.18 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: January 05, 2021, 11:43:25 AM »
data from Wipneus / PIOMAS - a bit more

I attach the PIOMAS Volume December Monthly Average graph.
At 11,799 km3, the 2020 December average is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, some 362 km3 less than the linear trend value. The lowest December average was in 2016, at 11,206 km3.

I also attach a table and graph of the 365 day trailing average volume. At the current rate of decline of the trailing average, a new record low average volume is likely in mid-2022, 5 years after the current record low in late August 2017.


23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 04, 2021, 07:18:29 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The UK graphs seem to say the lockdown(s) now being announced needed to have been done some time ago, well before the emergence of the UK variant.

The nearest main hospital to me are saying that 40% of all their beds are now occupied by Covid-19 patients.

At leat 2-3 months more of this rotten time to get through.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2021, 03:21:45 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 03-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,090,244 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,090,244    km2      
-253,411    km2   <   2010's average.
-403,218    km2   <   2020
-694,624    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    39    k   gain
Central Seas___   -20    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    23    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -12    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 20 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average gain of 46 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 253 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 695 k less than the 2000's average         
- Area is 25 k less than 2016         
- Area is 403 k less than 2020          
- Area is 645 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 03-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,601,201 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 18 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 182 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 613 k less than the 2000's average         
- EXTENT is 90 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 302 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 607 k less than 2012   
_________________________________
5 out of the 7 High Arctic central seas with an area loss on this day (some large some small) is unusual in the dead of winter   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 04, 2021, 10:54:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,178,953 KM2 as at 03-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 48k, 3 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,624 k, which is 489 k, 6% more than the 10 year average of 8,135 k.

- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Extent is  348 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  96 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  85 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  199 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  257 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 81.8% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 64 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 13.99 million km2, 0.11 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2021, 07:16:01 PM »
Interesting data.

I take it that the three years cited above are the top 3. Could you add a table (or graph) of the other years?
Is there some confusion here  ?
The graph above is not the 365 day trailing average.
It is the simple average of daily extent for each year.

Perhaps the attached column graph makes it more obvious.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 03, 2021, 05:18:26 PM »
Elon Musk reveals .. why he wants to be buried on Mars

If he sets up a gofundme I expect loads of people will throw some cash at it to help him realise his dream (asap)?


28
As we have discussed before, these long term forecasts (Canada, Europe, or US models all the same) have hardly any predictive skill.

Besides, since on average winters are significantly warmer now than in the past (see picture), if you forecast warm(er than average) winters, you will likely be right 70-80% of the time. ..... I rarely bet against trends.
But.... La Nina is associated with a cool North America

https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2017/11/15/how-will-la-nina-affect-winter-in-the-u-s/
Quote
Broadly speaking, La Niña gives us winters with cooler temperatures and more precipitation than normal in the northern U.S., and warmer, drier conditions in the south.


https://gripped.com/gripped-outdoors/winter-2020-in-canada-big-snow-and-more-ice-thanks-to-la-nina/
Quote
La Niña brings above-average precipitation and colder-than-average temperatures throughout Canada.

So Environment Canada's forecasts for above average temperatures are a bet against the trends?

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2021, 12:29:43 PM »
JAXA Data - a bit more on 2020

2020 had the lowest average daily sesa ice extent in the satellite record.

The simple daily average daily sea ice extent for the year was 9.674 million km2.
This was 42k less than in 2016, and 285k less than in 2012.

Put in another way, in 2020 there was on average 42k less ice and 42 k more open water for every day of the year than in any other year.

30
Environment Canada says its going to be a warm (as in not quite so perishing cold) Canadian winter

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 02, 2021, 05:12:33 PM »
Only 499,500 sold. Target not met.
Failure

Sell sell sell !!!

32
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 31, 2020, 04:10:26 PM »
I am here to report some worrying news from blumenkraft.
He writes that he is being harassed on reddit by asif members. He has closed accounts multiple times to get rid of the harassing.

My friend blumenkraft is already wrestling with depression since recent brain surgery and the passing away of his beloved cat.
What some asif members are doing to blumenkraft is more than very nasty; it is detrimental to his health.

I don't know which members are doing this but will you pretty please stop with harassing blumenkraft. Please!
If it keeps on it will be time to name names and give some of it back.

I for one would gladly give the people who are doing it some real shit.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2020, 02:24:26 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 30-Dec-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,013,857 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,013,857    km2      
-123,932    km2   <   2010's average.
-379,801    km2   <   2019
-551,602    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    15    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas___    20    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -4    k   loss
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    11    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 15 k, 39 k less than the 2010's average gain of 54 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 124 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 552 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 502 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 380 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 47 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 30-Dec-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,494,343 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 19 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 55k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 62 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 522 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 192 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 172 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 186 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2020, 10:47:34 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,121,262 KM2 as at 30-Dec-2020

- Extent gain on this day 48k, 5 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8,566 k, which is 692 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 7,875 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  166 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  36 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  351 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  479 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  129 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 80.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 71 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.09 million km2, 0.21 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 30, 2020, 04:15:12 PM »
NSIDC Data Query

Not a lot of people know that the NSIDC sea ice extent total is greater than the sum of extents of the 14 seas.....

I wrote to NSIDC this...
______________________________________
Every day I download the 5-day Arctic Sea Ice trailing averages for the 14 regions from N_Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Daily_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx and post an analysis on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. That analysis includes adding up the total sea ice extent of the 14 seas.

But that total does not agree with the 5-day trailing average extent from
file Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx

The value from this file is always about 100k km2 greater than the figure
from adding up the 14 individual Arctic regions. See table below

Is this just because its how the algorithms work?
Which figure for the total should I use ?

              Total of
              the 14 seas
              5-day extent      NSIDC 5 day extent   Difference
21-Dec     12.118                    12.216                   0.098
22-Dec     12.220                    12.326                   0.106
23-Dec     12.297                    12.401                   0.104
24-Dec     12.346                    12.451                   0.105
25-Dec     12.390                    12.494                   0.104
__________________________________________

And got a reply from the man himself (Walter Meier)
____________________________________________
"The total is the entire polar stereo grid. If one looks at the regions, there are areas of the grid outside of these regions. Most, if not all of such ice is false ice - i.e., either weather effects or land-spillover error. However, there can be some legitimate ice - mostly this would be in winter in places like the Bohai Sea off the coast of China or in the Chesapeake Bay (though this is brackish water, so one could argue if that is “true” sea ice). The area of such extraneous ice is, as noted in the data, quite small: ~100,000 sq km."
_______________________________________

36
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: December 30, 2020, 03:54:16 PM »
A-68-A

There are apparently some biologists out there who are concerned; they probably know something.
Or they want to generate publicity to get more funding.
Funding they have - British Antarctic Survey supposed to be on their way early January. Knowing their luck with this berg it will either be in little pieces and /or have been swept away from the South Georgia shallows by the time they get there.

ps: I wrote to Leeds Uni about whether we would see more data. Prof Shepherd responded

Quote
Hi Matt

Thanks for getting in touch, and I’m glad you found our data interesting!

It really is our first estimate of thickness change and we released the high-level information because there is a team headed down to study the berg and it will be of use to them. But we have not had chance to write the analysis up yet, and until we do that the numbers should be considered preliminary. I don’t expect them to change much, but we still need to run over the analysis with a fine tooth comb and you never know until that is done.

I tend to agree with some of the comments on your post that it is hard to compare sea ice and icebergs as they are quite different geometries; icebergs fragment at their sides far more than sea ice does as they have relatively high walls that develop greater stresses which can cause the ice to fracture. Plus their keels are much deeper in the ocean and so they encounter different (often warmer) temperatures too – especially in winter.

We put in quite a lot of effort over these past few weeks to get the analysis to the present stage, and the team have taken a break since then so I’m afraid there isn’t an update yet. If the berg is still large enough for us to track with altimetry when they get back I am sure we will post an update, but as it breaks up our chances of spotting it diminish I’m afraid so we may not get another look. Fingers crossed!

Andy

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 30, 2020, 02:48:04 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC data

Note that now area of the High Arctic Seas is above the 2010's average, while area of the Peripheral Seas is below the 2010's average.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 30, 2020, 02:44:04 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 29-Dec-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,998,759 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,998,759    km2      
-85,528    km2   <   2010's average.
-372,284    km2   <   2019
-520,792    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    1    k   gain
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    19    k   gain
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    15    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 20 k, 34 k less than the 2010's average gain of 54 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 86 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 521 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 591 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 372 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 47 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 29-Dec-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,475,506 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 22 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average gain of 57k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #5 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 26 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 494 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 310 k more than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 134 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 138 k less than 2012
________________________________________
Only two of the central seas still of interest
- Kara Sea, freeze rushing to com,pletion,
- Central Arctic still losing extent and area from NE Greenland to North of Svalbard   .

Not long for attnetion to switch almost entirely to theperipheral seas for extent and area - (but PIOMAS volume becomes even more relevant for all seas).   
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
Graphs from NSIDC Data - The Atlantic Front.

While the Kara Sea extent and area rush to completion, the Barents, Greenland and central Arctic do not.

Indeed, the Central Arctic has lost 150k sea ice area over the last 5 days. This is an impressive push back of the sea ice back North of 80 along a realtively short front between NE Greenland and Svalbard.


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 28, 2020, 01:41:23 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  19,511,281 KM2 as at 27-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 308k, 173 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 135k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -5.67 million km2, 0.09 million km2, 1% less than the 10 year average loss of -5.76 million km2.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record of which 0 year(s) was in the years before 1996

On average 64.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 47 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.27 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
If this run of above average Antarctic se ice loss and below average Arctic sea ice gain continues.......
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

41
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 27, 2020, 03:56:06 PM »
I was concerned (reply 1595, December 13) that the concentration graph might be warning that high melt might be approaching - I am wondering what that graph is now saying in comparison with previous years    .    .    . (if concentration is still relatively low it may indicate that high melt could continue).
Concentration graphs attached

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 27, 2020, 02:03:31 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  19,819,103 KM2 as at 26-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 325k, 191 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 134k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -5.37 million km2, 0.26 million km2, 5% less than the 10 year average loss of -5.63 million km2.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

On average 62.5% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 48 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.44 million km2, 0.89 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 26, 2020, 03:38:27 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2245.msg296662/topicseen.html#msg296662

There is a big lump of ice in the Antarctic called A-68-A. Ok, so it is a lump of ice sitting in a cold ocean and it is melting. But just about everything else is different from the ice and its environment in the Arctic

Nevertheless, in the years since 2017 when it started its voyage, ice extent is down by 54%, ice volume down by 64%.

The two large bits that broke off on 21 Dec were much thinner than the averge, so before that happened volume loss difference from extent loss would have been even higher. Looking at the graph in the post linked above suggests that on Dec 20 the extent loss was about 32% and volume loss about 45%. (Why don't they provide the data in a table?)

So my speculation that belongs to me is that if you put any old lump of  ice into water the volume loss exceeds area loss (until?) It will be fascinating iff we get to see the end of days of this berg and see how long this excess of volume loss over area loss continues.

Is this relationship between volume and area universal simply because
Quote
this also just completely follows from physics.  Kassy

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 26, 2020, 01:23:38 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  20,144,452 KM2 as at 25-Dec-2020

- Extent loss on this day 317k, 134 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 183k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -5.04 million km2, 0.45 million km2, 8% less than the 10 year average loss of -5.49 million km2.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record of which 0 year(s) was in the years before 1996

On average 61.0% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 49 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.63 million km2, 1.08 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 20, 2020, 09:10:34 AM »
I havent jumped into fossil fuel replacement for a while.... so this thinking is likely outdated.

My understanding is that we are unable to replace the vast amounts of energy produced from fossil fuels from other sources.

So, in effect, to maintain our current way of doing things, we have to have a lot of our energy needs met from fossil fuels.

Yes, your thinking is outdated. It is technically possible to replace just about all energy from fossil fuels with energy from renewables.

It is also economically as cheap or cheaper to replace most  electricity generated from fossil fuels with electricity generated from renewable energy. Using electricity to power cars is already cheaper than using gasoline or diesel. When batteries become cheaper, as they soon will, buying an EV will be as cheap or cheaper than an EV.

The good news is that at least in theory fossil fuels can be discarded very rapidly. The bad news is firstly that inertia and vested interests slow the process down, and more importantly, these almost infinite sources of renewable energy can power continued growth in the world economy that is destroying the natural world and on current trends quite likely us with it.


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: December 17, 2020, 12:56:40 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 16th, 2020:
     11,324,169 km2, a century break increase of 104,454 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 5 years with daily lowest minimum on September.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

How long has it been since we were last not in 2nd place?

2nd Place     20 Aug to 10 Oct
1st place     11 Oct to 1 Nov
2nd Place     2 Nov to now,

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 17, 2020, 12:33:40 PM »
They always go bust before they clean up their mess since you can plan for that.

So can the central government say don´t do that or are they unlikely to do so?
In general to prevent that there is sometimes a push to require companies set aside money for cleanup. Companies wait for a little while and reduce it to a token amount or get the requirement changed or lifted entirely. Or they get the rules changed so they can spend it. Funds were supposed to be set aside to clean up oil wells. The original requirement may have been sufficient but that never lasts.
Coal Oil and Gas companies are usually required to set aside realistic funds for end of life cleanup costs. Ideally these should be real funds from cash transfers and locked up until needed, e.g. in escrow.

In many states in the USA lobbysists persuaded State Legislatures to pass laws that reduced the required value of these funds and, more importantly, allowed the funds to be paper funds only. So when the company goes bust or is sold on, there is no actual cash to carry out clean-up - hence the multiplicity of superfund sites.

I doubt that these immoral & unethical practices are confined to Republican controlled States. You will also find similar practices everywhere in the world where the fossil fuel and mining companies operate. But do your investigations from a distance - several hundred environmental activists are murdered every year, mostly involved in fossil fuel, forestry and mining. The companies might not play for keeps but they hire people who do.

Some say (including me) that this is one reason Cost-Benefit Analysis - so fashionable in the 1960's and 70's, is out of favour. Identifying the full costs and benefits to society of projects exposes the hidden costs and hidden benefits which are far more likely to favour "green" projects than those favoured by legacy industries and finance that still mostly control the world economy.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 16, 2020, 11:16:26 AM »
JAXA Data

I attach the December monthly average graph based on actual data to Dec 15th and assuming 10 year average sea ice extent gains to the end of the month.

The resulting extent of 11.11 million km2 would be 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.11 million km2 above the record low of Dec 16, and 0.31 million km2 less than Dec 19.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: December 15, 2020, 12:57:09 PM »
So this measure may be a bit niche for anyone to be issuing a press release... But does it seem likely at year's end that someone will publicise 2020 having the lowest annual average extent on record of, as seems likely, it's still number one on December 31st?
The odds are that it will still be lowest at Dec 31. It means that 2020 is the year with the lowest sea ice extent. In my mind it is more significant than (say) the record low Sept minimum of 2012 because we are talking about sustained periods of record low sea ice and record high open water.

But the annual minima is the one that get the headlines.

50
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: December 14, 2020, 05:28:21 PM »
A-68-A is now at the mercy of above zero air temperatures, maximum insolation at around 55o South + at the mercy of a succession of lows as it is at the edge of the circumpolar winds.

It will be damaged, but how severely? Perhaps a poll about when and how much damage?

ps : Look carefully at the 1st (and last) image and see a white blob SW of S Georgia - A-68-A cooling local temperatures?

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