Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 48
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 03:25:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,625,331 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,625,331    km2      
-470,981    km2   <   2010's average.
-160,497    km2   <   2019
-936,402    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 471 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 936 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 174 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 160 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
A modest increase in sea ice area loss, while extent loss accelerates.

But starting the coming Tuesday afternoon warmth spreads north in Central Canada, starting with the Hudson and reaching the Central Canadian Arctic shore by the weekend, with Southern Greenland perhaps getting very warm on occasion. This is in addition to the Siberian heat and above zero temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean continuing.

I predict a lot of sea ice reduced to liquid. Flaming June?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 11:39:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,882,933 KM2 as at 30-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,565 k, 489 k, 15.9% more than the 10 year average of 3,076 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  402 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  50 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 30.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 107 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A modest increase in daily sea ice extent loss,but still (just) below average.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:53:44 PM »
It is quite usual to see AMSR2 images showing false areas of low concentration as the melt season gets into high gear. It is not so usual to see them persist.

Twixt Laptev and the North pole, up to North of 85, such an area appeared on May 27. Since then it has got bigger and stronger

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:20:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,648,400 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,648,400    km2      
-510,841    km2   <   2010's average.
-196,804    km2   <   2019
-971,699    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -4    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 4 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 511 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 972 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 134 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 197 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Area loss screeches to a halt; extent loss keeps on truckin'.

5
The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: May 29, 2020, 10:25:37 PM »
Nothing there to say here cometh the hot war, but yes, plenty to say the chill in the air is more pronounced - the inevitable cold war approaches.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 29, 2020, 05:08:23 PM »
An Old Lesson re-learnt - To survive The Empire must give The Peepul their Bread & Circuses.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/29/take-that-covid-19-you-cant-stop-the-compulsory-emotional-juggernaut-that-is-footy

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 29, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,652,338 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,652,338    km2      
-570,047    km2   <   2010's average.
-254,704    km2   <   2019
-1,022,681    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -44    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 44 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 570 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1023 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 255 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Big drop in sea ice area loss while extent loss up a bit.
Sea ice loss in the Central Arctic Sea halts.

8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:47:52 PM »
Getting warm(ish) up there?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2020, 10:08:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,993,348 KM2 as at 27-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,454 k, 521 k, 17.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,933 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -19 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another well below average extent loss despite very warm temperatures over much of the Arctic yesterday.  I revert to normal mode - i.e. confused. Will the NSIDC data later today confuse me even more?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:07:10 PM »
The sea ice area in the Central Arctic Sea (which extends over 3.22 million km2 of ocean) has declined from highest in the satellite record on April 16 (#42) to lowest in the satellite record on the 26th May (#1).

Whether such strong sea ice area losses can be maintained from the current sea ice area of 3.03 million km2, is, of course, another story.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 27, 2020, 03:22:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,765,860 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,765,860    km2      
-593,490    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,355    km2   <   2019
-1,026,468    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -49    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 83 k, -13 k more than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 593 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1026 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -253 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
The NSIDC daily extent dropped by 166k on this day. Perhaps the slowdown in extent sea ice loss is over, especially given many predictions of mayhem in the melting thread, and it must be said, quite an awesome 5 day forecast from GFS.

12
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

North America - the snow will go but that cold blob over Central Northern Canada is really impressive by its strength & persistence.

Arctic Eurasia - the fast melt of the remaining snow looks set to continue at a rapid pace.
_______________________________________
It looks to me that maybe much of the snow on the Tibetan plateau may melt in the coming 10 days.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
There was a lot of comment on the unusual loss of snow in Siberia adding to the grim prospects for sea ice bordering Russia.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current says -  Nyet.

Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia. Snow melt is certainly progressing at an extreme rate but from above average snow mass (SWE) and snow cover extent (SCE). I take no comfort from that as the ice seems to be disintegrating at a rapid rate of knots anyway without this added impetus.

And the snow will probably be gone over Arctic Eurasia to all intents and purposes in a week.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 12:19:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,867,032 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 85k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.15 million km2, 0.91 million km2, 15.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.06 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.94 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 66.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 163 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.92 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:51:30 PM »
Seems to me NSIDC showing lots of shades of blue where this early one might expect more white.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:35:21 PM »
Peripheral Seas Area projections


Sea ice area @ 24th May                                                2.22 million km2.
Average area loss from now to minimum (last 10 years)    2.36 million km2.

i.e. maximum sea ice area loss from now MUST be lower than average.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:23:03 PM »
Sea Ice Area in the 7 central seas of the High Arctic now LOWEST in the satellite record (just).

Sea ice area of the Central Arctic Sea (aka CAB) down from highest (#42) on April 16 to 5th lowest on 4th May.

Sea ice area of the 7 Peripheral seas (only) 2nd lowest.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:14:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,932,382 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,932,382    km2      
-560,329    km2   <   2010's average.
-208,080    km2   <   2019
-999,807    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -118    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -68    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, -53 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 560 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1000 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -208 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         

Is the sensor being fooled - e.g. by melt ponds? If so, it is very persistent and widespread
Sea ice area loss greater in the High Arctic Seas than in the Peripheral Seas for the 4th day in a row.

19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 25, 2020, 01:03:53 PM »
There isn't a thread for Greenland's "79 North Glacier", so I'm posting here. I expect AbruptSLR picked it up and posted it on the SL thread as the process described here is replicated in Antarctica?

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/how-the-ocean-is-gnawing-away-at-glaciers.html
How the ocean is gnawing away at glaciers
[03. February 2020]
The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting faster today than it did only a few years ago. The reason: it’s not just melting on the surface – but underwater, too. AWI researchers have now found an explanation for the intensive melting on the glacier’s underside, and published their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.


The glaciers are melting rapidly: Greenland’s ice is now melting seven times faster than in the 1990s – an alarming discovery, since climate change will likely intensify this melting in the future, causing the sea level to rise more rapidly. Accordingly, researchers are now working to better understand the underlying mechanisms of this melting. Ice melts on the surface because it is exposed to the sun and rising temperatures. But it has now also begun melting from below – including in northeast Greenland, which is home to several ‘glacier tongues’. Each tongue is a strip of ice that has slid down into the ocean and floats on the water – without breaking off from the land ice. The longest ice tongue, part of the ‘79° North Glacier’, is an enormous 80 km long. Over the past 20 years, it has experienced a dramatic loss of mass and thickness, because it’s been melting not just on the surface, but also and especially from below.

Too much heat from the ocean
A team led by oceanographer Janin Schaffer from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven has now identified the source of this intense underwater melting. The conclusions of their study, which the experts have just released in the journal Nature Geoscience, are particularly unsettling because the melting phenomenon they discovered isn’t unique to the 79° North Glacier, which means it could produce similar effects elsewhere.

For the purposes of the study, the researchers conducted the first extensive ship-based survey of the ocean floor near the glacier, which revealed the presence of a two-kilometre-wide trough, from the bottom of which comparatively warm water from the Atlantic is channelled directly toward the glacier. But that’s not all: in the course of a detailed analysis of the trough, Janin Schaffer spotted a bathymetric sill, a barrier that the water flowing over the seafloor has to overcome. Once over the hump, the water rushes down the back of the sill – and under the ice tongue. Thanks to this acceleration of the warm water mass, large amounts of heat from the ocean flow past the tongue every second, melting it from beneath. To make matters worse, the layer of warm water that flows toward the glacier has grown larger: measured from the seafloor, it now extends 15 metres higher than it did just a few years ago. “The reason for the intensified melting is now clear,” Schaffer says. “Because the warm water current is larger, substantially more warmth now makes its way under the ice tongue, second for second.”

To make matters worse, the layer of warm water that flows toward the glacier has grown larger: measured from the seafloor, it now extends 15 metres higher than it did just a few years ago. “The reason for the intensified melting is now clear,” Schaffer says. “Because the warm water current is larger, substantially more warmth now makes its way under the ice tongue, second for second.”

Other regions are also affected
In order to determine whether the phenomenon only manifests at the 79° North Glacier or also at other sites, the team investigated a neighbouring region on Greenland’s eastern coast, where another glacier, the Zachariæ Isstrøm, juts out into the sea, and where a large ice tongue had recently broken off from the mainland. Working from the surface of an ice floe, the experts measured water temperatures near the ocean floor. According to Schaffer: “The readings indicate that here, too, a bathymetric sill near the seafloor accelerates warm water toward the glacier. Apparently, the intensive melting on the underside of the ice at several sites throughout Greenland is largely produced by the form of the seafloor.” These findings will ultimately help her more accurately gauge the total amount of meltwater that the Greenland Ice Sheet loses every year.

Original publication
Janin Schaffer, Torsten Kanzow, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Luisa von Albedyll, Jan Erik Arndt and David H. Roberts: "Bathymetry constrains ocean heat supply to Greenland’s largest glacier tongue", Nature Geoscience, 3 February 2020,
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0529-x - paywalled.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 07:12:28 PM »
The max I gave in the above post was max area in mid-Sep, not total area of the sea, as determined by max over the whole AMSR2 record (in km2). Note the Wipneus map, previously used by Chris Reynolds, was taken from the now-defunct Cryosphere Today (CT) website.

CAB: 4,432,026
Chukchi:  606,637
Beaufort:  529,475
ESS:  934,240
Laptev:  736,842
Kara:  885,647
CAA:  769,964
So here is a table comparing the CryosphereToday-Chris Reynolds-Wipneus sea areas with the NSIDC-Meier-Stroeve-Fetterer-2007 sea areas.

Just a pity for people like me we haven't got just one.
_________________________________-
ps: & Now the scientist have done the same for the gold standard definition of drainage basins of the Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets (per Zwally 2012, per Rignot 2016).

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:34:43 PM »
In recent days sea ice area losses in the Central Seas greater than sea ice area loss in the Peripheral Seas.
___________________________
see data thread for details.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:18:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,050,116 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,050,116    km2      
-507,742    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,790    km2   <   2019
-946,377    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -111    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -66    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 111 k, -49 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 508 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 946 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 140 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -151 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
This rate of daily sea ice area loss usually starts in mid-June.
Note that the rate of melt is now greater in the Central Seas

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 01:03:32 PM »
Average AMSR2 area contribution in mid-Sep (sorted, unrounded, km2):
CAB: 3,300,562 (max 3,606,190)
Some people might get confused  because
- the CAB area in the NSIDC analysis is 3.224 million km2,
- the area of the CAB used by Wipneus is larger (the surrounding seas smaller).

And this is where I get confused - I thought the CAB area used by Wipneus was around 3.45 million km2, not the 3.60 million you quote. Do you think you could post the sea areas as used by Wipneus. I think you've done it before (or someone else has).

ps: The Barents, Kara Seas & CAA boundaries are the same, it is the Laptev, ESS, Chukhi & Beaufort Sea areas are lower in the Wipneus analysis, as NSIDC (Stroeve et al) moved the boundaries north by a series of straight lines along 80 North.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 23, 2020, 06:38:03 PM »

... as for the "slow down", well that has been repeatedly discussed and I for one have not seen any convincing evidence of there being anything other than an ongoing linear reduction in sea ice with random annual fluctuations. Choosing the record year as the starting point of a hypothetical slow down tastes surprisingly like cherry picking.
Discussed ad nauseam

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 23, 2020, 04:03:37 PM »
With the Hudson Bay region staying below normal temperature wise, this year is potentially setting up for a big June cliff (Bay melt will probably be delayed to coincide with Basin melt).
At maximum on the 7th March Hudson Bay sea ice area was 4th highest in the satellite record.
On 22nd May Hudson Bay sea ice area was 4th lowest in the satellite record, with most area loss between 60 & 65 North.

Looking at the University of Bremen sea ice concentration map + GFS average temperature it looks like South of 60 North gets clobbered next.

I don't think melt will wait for June, except for Foxe Basin?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 23, 2020, 03:31:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,160,702 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,160,702    km2      
-458,979    km2   <   2010's average.
-108,116    km2   <   2019
-905,323    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -105    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -52    k   loss
Central Seas___   -53    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -27    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -17    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 105 k, -41 k more than the 2010's average loss of 64 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 459 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 905 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 180 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -108 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
I am used to commenting on how one or two seas in part of the Arctic are behaving. It is unusual in my experience to see the ice disappearing just about everywhere.

It is important to remember that the NSIDC Sea Ice Area data is the 5-day trailing average. So the 105k sea ice area loss is the average of the last 5 days - over half a million km2 of sea ice area gone in the last 5 days. This also means that as 105k is greater than in the previous 4 days, the 5-day daily area loss will stay high for the following 2-3 days even if the one-day loss slows.

_____________________________________________
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: May 23, 2020, 01:03:52 PM »
I don't think a question can ever be "stupid"... You can be ignorant, an amateur, a newbie, or a child. But never stupid! Because stupid people wouldn't be able to find this forum...  ;)

"Because stupid people wouldn't be able to find this forum..."

It took me a long, long time to find this forum.
And then it was by accident.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 22, 2020, 09:37:53 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,214,446 KM2 as at 21-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 90k, -36 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,233 k, 596 k, 22.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,637 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  5 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 26.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 116 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.90 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
+ve temperature anomalies above 3 degrees for the next 5 days, and then perhaps a gradual moderation by half a degree in the 5 days following. Above average daily sea ice loss more likely than below average.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 21, 2020, 08:11:14 PM »
Who am I to question the scientists, but here goes anyway.

Quote
cloud coverage in ice-free regions in the Arctic linearly increased with the area of ice-free water during the melt seasons

The albedo feedback is one of the most pronounced positive feedback in the polar regions. Clouds can damp this positive feedback: cloud formation can partly compensate for the change in albedo due to the melting of sea ice.


Cloud cover surely also dampens down release of heat from the ocean? Last year the Bering Sea +ve SST anomalies were, to put it mildly, stunning. The freeze was late, which must have been due to the high sea temperatures until that heat was gone, at least from the surface. In other words cloud cover perhaps prolongs the melt season and / or delays the freezing season.

Which effect is more significant, dampening melt / ocean heat uptake, or delaying ocean heat loss and the re-freeze?
_____________________________________
ps: Historical Note. It seems that mariners from a hundred years & more ago referred to the Bering Sea as "The Smoky Sea". The sea was notorious for its frequent and erratic fogs and mist.
(Fog is very low cloud ?)


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2020, 05:30:17 PM »
& one more for luck.

I like to invert concentration into dispersion., i.e. extent divided by area.
The higher the dispersion, the more mobile the ice can be, & therefore more pone to damage by rough weather, and more radiation getting into the ocean?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2020, 04:33:57 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

High Arctic Seas (2)

Kara - now lowest in satellite record for 5 days
Laptev - about to feel the Siberian heat?
ESS     - ditto?

Central Arctic Sea - last year very low area loss. This year?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2020, 03:56:20 PM »
The melting season so far - Sea Ice Area from NSIDC Data

Peripheral Seas (1)

Okhotsk - nearly done.
Bering -  over in less than one month

Hudson Bay - large parts look ready to disintegrate.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2020, 03:29:00 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,351,631 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,351,631    km2      
-391,114    km2   <   2010's average.
-38,993    km2   <   2019
-846,990    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -97    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -51    k   loss
Central Seas___   -46    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -25    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 97 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 391 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 847 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -39 k less than 2019          
___________________________________________         
All 14 seas lost sea ice area on this day.
Doesn't happen often.

On a sea ice area basis, 2020 melt is one week ahead of the 2010's average & 2 weeks ahead of the 2000's average

34
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 21, 2020, 11:48:38 AM »
Midland, Michigan and more:

Aging Dams, Changing Climate: A Dangerous Mix | Weather Underground
Quote
The failure of two dams near Midland, Michigan, led to a flooding catastrophe Wednesday—one that highlighted the U.S. peril from the neglect of hundreds of aging dams coupled with the rise in intensified precipitation extremes from human-produced climate change.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/aging-dams-changing-climate-a-dangerous-mix

falta manutenção

Many years ago I worked in an extremely impoverished ex Portuguese colony. Things often didn't work. When asked why, the standard answer was, yes, you've guessed it "Lacks Maintenance".
The country got loads of multilateral development assistance - but not one cent for maintenance. e.g. Shiny air-conditioned new schools, but no money for electricity, and no money for books.

In the US ageing dams can now be added to the "falta manutenção" list, that includes:
- roads,
- bridges,
- public hospitals,
- public schools,
- flood defences,
- gas pipelines,
- water systems,
- electricity grid.

Taxes in mainland Europe are much higher than in the USA, but not purely to give the undeserving poor handouts. Some goes to maintaining the infrastructure on which the economic, physical and social well-being of countries depend. The UK in recent years has done its best to catch up with the US in implementing "falta manutenção".

There is now loads of blah blah about developing resilience to combat the effects of climate change, and the opportunity for a post-covid green new deal. The dam failures are just another example of the way climate change is going to expose to daylight the rotten state of so much of that on which we depend.

35
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


Data as at 20th May 2020

Minuscule SMB losses in the last 5 days, the result of some melt + very low precipitation.
Accumulated SMB gain this year at 500GT is about 75GT below the average.

Modest precipitation and modest melt look set to continue to the end of the month.

If the SMB gain for this year has peaked at just almost 500GT, it is about 3 weeks early and nearly 100 GT below the average of nearly 600GT.
__________________________________
ps:- I have written to DMI & requested they download the average SMB & Melt daily data. I am hopeful for a +ve result next week

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: May 20, 2020, 05:04:45 PM »
Forget the NW Passage, unless you are an adventurer.

It's the Russian route that will do its best to screw up the Arctic.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/russias-yamal-lng-sends-early-shipment-via-arctic-route
Russia's Yamal LNG Sends Early Shipment Via Arctic Route
Quote
(Bloomberg) — Russia’s biggest liquefied natural gas producer is sending the fuel across the Arctic to China more than a month earlier than usual as the ice that typically blocks the route thaws.

The Christophe de Margerie, an ice-class vessel serving Novatek PJSC’s-led Yamal LNG project, departed from the production plant in Sabetta, Russia, on Monday and is now headed east via the so-called Northern Sea Route, according to ship-tracking data on Bloomberg.

That pathway is the shortest and cheapest way for Yamal cargoes to reach Asia. But it’s usually shut for navigation for half a year in the winter due to thick ice.

Novatek is examining longer and eventually year-round navigation along the route with a new class of nuclear-powered icebreakers, a task made easier with climate change and thinning Arctic ice.

The Christophe de Margerie is slated to reach the Caofeidian terminal in China on June 11. Cargo-tracking company Kpler identified the vessel’s move earlier.

https://www.ship-technology.com/projects/christophe-de-margerie-class-icebreaking-lng-carriers/
And as the image shows - to get through thick ice these LNG tankers go backwards.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2020, 04:13:24 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,448,838 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,448,838    km2      
-354,146    km2   <   2010's average.
-17,587    km2   <   2019
-811,153    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -96    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -46    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -14    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 96 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 59 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 354 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 811 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -18 k less than 2019          
___________________________________________         
With posthumous apologies to William Butler Yeats

Turning and turning in the widening gyre   
The icepack cannot bear the strain;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the ice,
The blood-dimmed tide of melt is loosed,
And everywhere the floes are drowned;
The best ice lacks conviction, while the worst   
Is full of final decay.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 19, 2020, 04:12:47 PM »
After a very high maximum and a slow start to melting, the Central Seas (aka High Arctic) are losing area fast, and mostly in the Kara Sea (now lowest in the satellite record ).

39
It seems the markets have decided (at least until tomorrow) that fairly soon it will not be so much BAU, as BAU2.

Loads-a-money to be made during this period of creative destruction?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 18, 2020, 03:16:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,624,423 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,624,423    km2      
-300,436    km2   <   2010's average.
 12,616    km2   >   2019
-759,547    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -98    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -50    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -28    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 98 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 300 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 760 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 13 k more than 2019          
______________________________________________
After looking at the tables attached...
- my first reaction was a Friv to whit "Fuck-a-Duck",
- my 2nd reaction was that I could not remember seeing just about every sea being clobbered this widespread way,
- my third reaction was - but look at Hudson Bay & the CAA, the cold in North Central Canada still hanging on,
- my 4th reaction was - these are 5 day trailing averages, which means more to come


41
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: May 18, 2020, 01:11:44 PM »
The JTWC 900Z has Amphan at 140 kts sustained winds, which I believe ties the record for the Bay of Bengal. That's just past the Cat 5 threshold.

Edit: The potential to somewhat dodge a bullet exists with increasing wind shear prior to landfall. Not sure how much that would diminish the gathering surge.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 52
FEET.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0120web.txt

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 16, 2020, 03:37:35 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,807,936 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,807,936    km2      
-241,934    km2   <   2010's average.
 61,614    km2   >   2019
-689,541    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas___   -37    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -20    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, -11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 690 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 62 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
A significant series of daily sea ice loss emerging - but 2016 is still the year when early melt really pushed the AWP graph up.

43
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.


I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.
Ah,
- I remember the days when the EU demanded that the Govt debt of member states was kept to below 60%, & it was Germany & France that in the end blew that one away.
-and I remember a financial crisis- 2008-09 wasn't it? Can't Pay, Won't Pay mortgage loans bundled up by Goldman Sachs, salted with a few good ones and flogged to a naive bunch of other bankers & financial institutions, plus a load of other financial wheezes. That didn't end well.
- and now we have the biggest financial wheeze of them all. The Central Banks are buying up junk bonds and other financial instruments & making humongous loans to businesses many of which are in the "Can't Pay, Won't Pay" category. 

& as long as we all accept that it does not matter, it does not matter. So for pity's sake, kill that child who points at the Emperor and says, "But mummy, the Emperor is naked - he has no new clothes".

ps: And the trickle up effect is in full flood, the loot rises to the rich.

44
Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: May 16, 2020, 09:35:38 AM »
Latest forecast is down 11% in USA CO2 emissions

"After decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 11% (572 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19. CO2 emissions decline from all fossil fuels, particularly coal (23%) and petroleum (11%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. "

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
A complete disruption of the world's financial & economic systems including mass unemployment results in perhaps an 8% drop in CO2 emissions.

So how the hell is the world going to manage a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030?

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:12:48 AM »
Quote
Quote from: bbr2315 on May 15, 2020, 05:20:38 PM
Meanwhile in NY State we have a fascist Governor who has once again extended lockdown despite new cases and deaths etc plunging to near 0.

Fascists govern by decree, as do all dictators (& would-be dictators).

I have seen & listened to Gov Cuomo on CNN. Impressive as he has tried to tell his people exactly what's going on and why he has taken the actions he is taking.  It is obvious he is working with people, not over them.

If he is a dictator we need a few more like him.


47
Government largesse....

It can (will be) also be used to

- bail out the industries that got us into this mess,
- give loads of money to industries that will get us deeper into this mess.

It could be - but most likely won't be, targeted at human activities that might save the sorry arse of most of us.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 03:44:56 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.
No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.
Sorry, I was listening to Radio4 talking about what our Govt is doing about Covid-19.
Enough to make the most even-tempered individual feeling really ratty.

Meanwhile....

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,881,568 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,881,568    km2      
-231,465    km2   <   2010's average.
 89,890    km2   >   2019
-671,697    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -69    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 69 k, -4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 231 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 672 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 90 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Note that this daily area loss is only 4k less than the 2010's average for this day.
We are soon to enter the peak melting period. By mid-June the average daily sea ice area loss is over 100k.

But if the rest of this month shows above average loss the effect may be more significant (e.g. on AWP- Albedo Warming Potential) than larger losses at a later date.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 01:30:45 PM »
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 15, 2020, 10:45:22 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,744,488 KM2 as at 14-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 152k, -99 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,703 k, 457 k, 20.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,246 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  87 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 22.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
“What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours...”
This daily area loss is the maximum daily loss in May (since 2002) by 21k.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 48