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Messages - Grubbegrabben

Pages: [1]
1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 17, 2020, 09:50:34 PM »
The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in Stockholm – Technical report

"Our point estimate of the IFR is 0.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.4–1.1%. For the age group 0–69 years, the IFR is 0.1% (c.i. 0.1–0.2%), and for those of age 70 years or older we get an estimate of 4.3% (c.i. 2.7–7.7%). Comparisons between the cases in our estimation sample and those in the rest of Stockholm and Sweden suggest that our results are generalizable."

Several data sources have been used to analyze and compute the IFR, a very detailed description of the methods, assumptions and calculations is included in the full report.

Link to full report (in english):
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb771/infection-fatality-rate-covid-19-stockholm-technical-report.pdf

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 07, 2020, 10:02:41 PM »
The problem with Uruguay is that either it permits tourism from Argentina & Brazil starting in November or it will be economically ruined.

We have the same issue in Spain. I would feel comfortable if Spain bans non-essential access to Sweden and the UK (and US) in the summer months, most of the other European countries have the pandemics under control.

Not that many are going to come anyway, which would be "nice" (I can walk in the city center without 1000 tourists crushing me to the ground) , but the Spanish economy will sink very deeply.

The tourist-dependent countries are eager to get tourism up and running. Accepting travellers from countries with the pandemic under control is probably wise. Sweden is blocked by many countries due to high infection rate. However, non essential travel is not recommended to ANY country by the Swedish foreign department, at least not before 15 july. Which means that you can't really go anywhere because  it's impossible to get travel insurance. Double-block :-)

Even IF the pandemic is under control both in the tourist's home country and at the destination, no country has zero infections. Which means that every tourist risk waking up at the hotel one morning with dry cough, high fever and difficulty breathing. Swedes are frequent tourists to many destinations in the world. However, zero people I've spoken to in Sweden are eager to go anywhere before the pandemic is over. Even people who know they had it. You really can't know if/when a second wave hits and you end up stuck at the destination. Or if the airline declares bankrupcy all of a sudden. Too many uncertainities.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 12, 2020, 08:29:22 AM »

Any updates on Sweden's antibody prevalence?

The Swedes always quote absurdly high numbers for antibodies. But given the number of their dead (3256) it is safe to say that cca 300k-500 k has been infected, ie 3-5% of the population. Definitely below 10%.

The antibody testing on Danderyds Hospital showed that 20% of the staff had antibodies mid-april.
Hospital staff is more exposed than the general population but antibodies in mid-april should indicate that they had the infection at least two weeks earlier? The results of a much larger study will be presented next week I think.

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 20, 2020, 02:29:14 AM »

It's amazing that they were able to find several thousand ICU nurses and Pulmonary technicians on such short notice.

Of course they haven't. Stockholm has activated an emergency contract/deal for ICU staff. The salary is raised to 220% but the scheduled work time is up from 40 hours/week to 48 hours/week.

Also a number of specialist nurses have been trained to "assist" in ICU care but I don't have details on that.

I just learned that 16.000 ventilators/year are manufactured in Stockholm by some medtech company. Things are easy to make, qualified doctors and nurses - not so easy.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 19, 2020, 11:39:58 PM »
Our old people sitting in nursing homes like lame ducks, scared to death

The daily updates for the Stockholm region now lists cases in elderly homes separately. It's a disaster.

Quote
Out of the 5,826 positively sampled, 1,325 persons were sampled at Special housing for the elderly, SÄBO. Of a total of 313 SÄBO in the county, 191 have some residents with a positive diagnosis of covid-19.

Of 921 people who have died in the Stockholm region of covid-19, 380 people are sampled at a SÄBO.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 19, 2020, 11:29:26 PM »

...
We are witnessing Trump get away with mass murder for everyone to see. It will not get better.

The same policy of culling of our old ones goes on in the UK, in USA and in Sweden.

Lockdown of those who don't even need to be protected, while those that are most at risk get no protection whatsoever.

"Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy
Staff with no masks or sanitiser fear for residents as hundreds die in care homes"

Our old people sitting in nursing homes like lame ducks, scared to death, waiting to be culled.
And this is due to our experts' ignorance and our politicians' lethargy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/anger-in-sweden-as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy

I found this part of the strategy severely flawed from the very beginning. I think "protect the elderly" was the message on the very first press briefing of the Covid-19 situation in Sweden. Despite this, protective equipment is STILL a problem. As well as lack of even basic training for the staff in elderly homes.

The article has a few problems though, Lena Einhorn hasn't been a "virologist" for 20 years (she is currently a director/author according to Wikipedia).

Also:
"Einhorn was one of 22 researchers who on Tuesday called for Sweden’s politicians to break with the country’s tradition of entrusting policy to its expert agencies, and to seize control of Sweden’s coronavirus strategy from the agency"

None of the 22 are a researcher, at least not in epidemiology. Also, the suggestion that politicians should seize control is against Swedish law:

Swedish public administration is dualistic, meaning the governmental departments are under the direct control of a minister, but the administrative authorities (or government agencies in other words) under these departments are ostensibly autonomous. The agencies work according to laws and rules decided on by the Riksdag, but apply them on their own accord. So while the agencies are formally associated with some department, a minister cannot exert control over these agencies on individual matters, and they do not have the authority to direct daily operations. Ministers are thus expressly prohibited to intervene in matters relating to the application of the law or the due exercise of an agency's authority, quite unlike the situation in many other countries. If the government believes that an agency has not applied the law correctly, its only remedy is to change the relevant legislation


7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 11:26:50 PM »

I know you like the Sweden example ('they are going to die anyways'). Well fuck that model.


Yeah the Sweden model again.

This picture illustrates just how reckless the Swedish strategy is. If the government had any sense they would immediately close down the Stockholm subway system. Shocking picture of peak rush hour this morning at 8:20 AM, look at all those people spreading corona virus, working hard on that herd immunity.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:03:06 PM »
The official Swedish statistics is posted on:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

The graph "Avlidna/dag" shows deceased/day on the correct day. Other sources only update the number of deceased on the day of the report (such as https://c19.se/).

Example: 112 deaths were reported on april 7. On c19.se this is shown as 112 deaths on that very day. In reality, these cases occured on april 1 to april 6 and have been assigned on the correct days on the official site. The official number of deaths on april 7 is 60. The opposite is also true on some days. 37 deaths were reported on april 5, this is the number shown on c19.se. In reality, 75 Covid-19 deaths occured this day, it's just that they were reported later.

This concept seems incredibly hard to grasp. The internet trolls are going completely apeshit and thinks the Swedish death numbers are being manipulated somehow. In reality, they are trying to be as accurate as possible.

Tomorrow, I'm fairly sure there will be a substantial surge of deaths since there has been four non-working days in a row. Quite possibly over 200. These will be allocated to the correct day in the official statistics but reported as a huge spike in deaths on other sites. I can already hear he screams of the Twitter and Facebook epidemiologists.


9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 08:35:23 PM »
The recovery seems like not a recovery:

Quote
The dark side of ventilators: Those hooked up for long periods face difficult recoveries

People who survive the most dire cases of disease caused by the novel coronavirus are about to learn one of the cruelest lessons of the pandemic: After defeating the virus, the really hard part begins.

Those saved through extreme medical interventions, including being attached to mechanical ventilators for a week or two, often suffer long-term physical, mental and emotional issues, according to a staggering body of medical and scientific studies. Even a year after leaving the intensive care unit, many people experience post-traumatic stress disorder, Alzheimer’s-like cognitive deficits, depression, lost jobs and problems with daily activities such as bathing and eating.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/
By Carolyn Y. Johnson and Ariana Eunjung Cha
April 3, 2020 at 12:49 p.m. CST

A relevant observation. Not everything is like on TV shows where everyone arriving in the ER are intubated and revived miraculously.

Statistics from Sweden regarding Covid-19 patients:
Age   Hospitalised/ICU/Deaths
0 to 9  36/0/0
10 to 19  139/0/0
20 to 29  452/16/3
30 to 39  582/21/0
40 to 49  838/64/1
50 to 59  1182/123/15
60 to 69  913/162/26
70 to 79  932/112/101
80 to 89  942/21/157
90+  424/1/70

Only 1 case of the 424 patients aged 90+ has been treated in an intensive care unit (outcome not revealed in the statistics). Judging from the data, it seems like most 80+ patients aren't treated in ICU either.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:12:50 PM »
Not long ago Sweden and Denmark had similar coronavirus deaths per million ratios but after today's figures Sweden is pulling away.

Sweden 24 deaths p.million (last three days 36,34,59 deaths)
Denmark 18 deaths p.million (last three days 5,13,14 deaths)
Many have questioned the Swedish laissez-faire strategy and for good reason as your figures point out.

My guess is Sweden is aiming for a herd immunity with limited economic consequences and they trust their efficient health care system to handle the peak of the epidemic. I sincerely hope they are right
They can't. ICUs and hospital beds per habitant are comparable to the rest of Europe. It's a relatively big population. They will suffer a lot of government-caused pain, and COVID will become the first cause of death for a few weeks as it has happened in other countries. Hospitals will be swamped, we already know what happens then.

You don't have any clue how the Swedish health care system works that's for sure. This is a prime example of someone not having a clue about something just pulls a random graph or table from the internet and draws a grossly incorrect conclusion from it. It happens all the time on climate change denial forums and it certainly happens here as well.

In many other countries you are admitted to hospital for things that are handled by the primary care system in Sweden. This has resulted in fewer hospital beds per capita.

Now, the big question is, does this mean anything in regard to the current Covid19 outbreak?

For ICU capacity certainly the answer is a big YES. This is very important. All countries are increasing capacity in this regard. Sweden is no exception, it's been doubled and by next week it will be tripled. No upper limit has been set, capacity will be increased as much as possible by all means possible.

Now, the question is down to the "hospital beds" capacity. What kind of treatment is given? Can it be done from home? Can the primary care doctors and nurses administer the necessary treatment while the patient remains at home, or by a daily visit to a primary care facility? Can necessary treatments be performed in nursing homes?

As I said in a previous post, I think it's currently impossible to draw any conclusions or know what's right or wrong in the middle of the outbreak. Each country has it's own health care system, maybe vastly different from another country even if the number "hospital beds per capita" is identical.

I know one thing though, and that is that I'd hate to live in a country where media, fear, internet experts or populist parties get to decide how to handle the Covid-19 situation. That would be a true nightmare.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:53:35 AM »
Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1

Quote
COVID-19 has spread to most countries in the world. Puzzlingly, the impact of the disease is different in different countries. These differences are attributed to differences in cultural norms, mitigation efforts, and health infrastructure. Here we propose that national differences in COVID-19 impact could be partially explained by the different national policies respect to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) childhood vaccination. BCG vaccination has been reported to offer broad protection to respiratory infections. We compared large number of countries BCG vaccination policies with the morbidity and mortality for COVID-19. We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination (Italy, Nederland, USA) have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:22:41 AM »
A well-thought out post Grubbbengrabben. I was wondering about the rationale behind the Swedish situation.
I believe 1 and 2 are wrong. Experience in Italy has shown that young asymptomatic people were major drivers of spreading the disease. In addition, not only old people are at risk, and hospitalization rates are high even for young people, which could lead to health system overwhelm.
I hope for your sake that I am wrong.

Thanks.

The quote below is the main assumption made by the Swedish ministry of health and the basis of all their calculations regarding number of hospital beds and ventilators (intensive care). Google translate.

Apparently many other countries use a significantly higher CAR number in their forecasts, and as a consequence they think stricter regulations are needed. As for the hospitalisation rates - I don't know. Do they look wrong? Emphasis added by me.

Quote
For all outbreaks, both regional and national, we have adopted a Clinical Attack Rate (CAR) of 1%. A CAR of 1% means that 1% of the entire population has been clinically infected after completion of the outbreak. We only include reported cases. Based on analysis of external data, especially from China, we believe that 1% CAR is a realistic worst-case scenario. To estimate probable CAR in China and Italy we have doubled today's accumulated number of infected, as if we were at the top today, and divided by population. In this way we take heed that the outbreak may not be over yet. Given today's situation, that would mean less than 1% of the population of Wuhan city gets a clinical infection, in the Hubei region about 0.2% and throughout China 0.01%. When we do the same for Italy, we get a CAR in Lombardy of 0.7%

Severity distribution among infected per age group given target value of
severity among infected and size of the risk groups.

Severity0-1920-6465+
Mild93%83%67%
Severe6%13%26%
Critical1%4%7%

All mild cases are assumed to be self treated. Severe and Critical admitted in hospital. Critical cases are assumed to need intensive care for an average time period of 14 days.


13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 11:14:56 PM »
The main news here in Sweden is that the rest of europe or even the world think we are a little bit crazy. The only thing strictly locked down is schools (for people aged 16-25) and gatherings with more than 50 people.

Other than that: Wash hands. Don't touch your face. Work from home. Don't visit old people. Stay home at the slightest flu symptom. If you have been Ill, stay home for two days after symptoms are gone.

Apparently, the rest of the world thinks this is a road to disaster.

The swedish ministry of health has justified the actions with this (and the government follows their recommendations. In line with Greta Thunbergs "Listen to the Scientists"):

1. Young children are not the driving force of this outbreak. Closing kindergartens and elementary schools causes more problems than it solves. Their parents are health care professionals, shop assistants, truck drivers and so on. If they are forced to stay home we are just adding another problem. If we are forcing grandparents to take care of their grandkids we are basically handing out death sentences.

2. Asymptomatic or presymptomatic spread is not the driving force of this outbreak. Forcing entire families into quarantine if just one member is ill causes more problems than it solves (see 1 above).

Last but not least - and this is where social media (largely driven by Chinese and Russian troll factories) goes bananas :

3. A too strict lock down may be "too" effective. The virus won't go away no matter what restrictions we put on ourselves. Once too strict restrictions are lifted, the outbreak will come back and we will be forced to lock down again. This is very disruptive and causes more harm than good. Instead, a well measured and timely implemented course of action will be chosen to ensure that health care can cope with the number of patients (the "flatten the curve" idea).

A quick look around the situation in many EU countries reveals a wide range of restrictions. Poland for example, where a strict quarantine is in effect. Only 1400 cases and 17 deaths. Exactly how are they going to go back to normal? Did they chose to go the other way around, start with complete lock down to shut down the outbreak completely and then step by step reopening? I don't know.

My theory is that many EU contries got scared by the situation in Italy/Spain and implemented very strict restrictions, mainly driven by politicians, media and opinions - not by science and facts. My only worry is that the swedish ministry of health got their assumptions, calculations and forecasts wrong and we end up with an Italian-like situation. Interesting times.

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 12:49:47 AM »
Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Hainan, China
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038539v1
Quote
The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital visit, diagnosis and hospital admission was 4.5 days (IQR, 2-7). For severe patients, the median time from onset of symptoms to severe illness was 11 days (IQR, 7-13). For discharged patients [...] the median time from hospital admission to discharged was 17 days (IQR, 12-21). For dead patients, the median time from onset of symptoms to death was 17 days (IQR, 10.5-37.3), and the median time from hospital admission to death was 13 days (IQR, 1.5-28.3).

I found this useful when trying to make sense of the various tables of numbers published virtually everywhere. I think I read somewhere that time from infection to symptom onset is about 5 days.

Would this timeline be correct, given the numbers above?

Day 1 Infected
Day 6 Symptom onset
Day 11 Hospital admission
Day 17 Severe illness (maybe)
Day 23 Dead (hopefully not)
Day 28 Discharged (yay!)

A) Countries that test everyone have about 17 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 6 to Day 23).
B) Countries that only test patients admitted to hospital have about 12 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 11 to Day 23).
C) Any measure taken to reduce spread and pressure on hospitals doesn't have any effect until 11 days later (Day 1 to Day 11).


15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 09:30:42 PM »
Maybe a stupid question. Is there a difference between getting infected, like when you go to the shop. And getting infected in a area where you are exposed to the virus all the time. Like in a hospital, or like in a lockdown like in Wuhan. The entire family infected in an apartment and you have to stay in the apartment together. Does the exposure makes it worse ?
Possibly. There are many reports of health workers getting it real bad even if they're young and fit.
The initial viral load may play a role. If you touch a supermarket surface with your hand and later touch your eyes, it takes days for the viral load to build up and your defense system may have more time to recognize the virus.

+1   Exactly.  I'm not aware of hard data the confirms you get much sicker with a heavy initial viral dose, but it is to be expected.   The more virus particles there are to start with, the more of a head start they get to out-pace the immune response.

Yes I was wondering about this one. Should you isolate sick family members? It may be difficult depending on how you live, with children and so on. The whole family will probably be infected no matter what precautions you take.

What I found was this article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

Quote
The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes

My interpretation is that in a home care environment, where the sick person has mild or moderate symptoms, the viral load is low. Family members doesn't need to be treated any different than if they have the flu. There is probably no significant heightened risk for a severe outcome even if you are in close proximity to a sick family member. (People in risk groups excluded of course).

However, severe cases that end up in hospital will release massive amounts (60 times more according to the article) of viral particles that make health care workers more sick than the average Covid-19 patient.

Thoughts? I'm by no means an expert.

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 09:48:44 PM »
You are being silly.

Out of the the 1746 Swedish cases so far are 462 imported cases from Italy, 246 from Austria and 30 from France.

Amost all of these are Swedish alpine ski tourists who were in these countries in week 7 to 9 (school winter holiday season), probably in good physical shape and in their 40's. I would assume that these also infected their close relatives and that makes up a good part of the remaining cases.

To draw any conclusions about the CFR from the Swedish cases is utterly pointless. To insinuate that deaths are being covered up is just nuts. Please don't draw any conclusions without a single ounce of analysis of what's behind the numbers.

(Note: Everything I wrote above is available on the Swedish public health agency's public web site, unfortunately not all of it is available in English)

Edit: Language

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 11:13:59 AM »
Sweden (among other countries, I assume) has started sentinel testing. The sentinel testing program is used to track the seasonal flu but now also Covid-19. Participating doctors select "randomly" patients that seek care for any illness, and send a sample for Covid-19 testing.

Last week, 206 sentinel tests resulted in 6 Covid-19 positive. It's far too early to say anything meaningful about the numbers but this will be interesting to track.

(Officially, there are 1650 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Sweden, 0,015% of the population)

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 11:17:54 AM »
It is difficult to do the right thing. Many families in Norway are fleeing the city, working remotely from their cabins in the countryside.

But now the government is ordering them to return to their homes, because this would overwhelm healthcare in the countryside, where the average age is higher. If necessary by force (civil defense forces).

Wow. I don't think the preppers were prepared for that.

I think the whole idea is to not overload health care in the cities as well as avoid infection altogether. A friend of a friend took his family and elderly mother out to a cabin in the countryside  and plans to stay there isolated a couple of months. They are NOT infected and plan to stay that way. Their pressure on the health care system in the countryside is zero.

I think the government in Norway got this wrong.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 11:24:24 PM »
Article in the swedish paper Aftonbladet.

Quote
It's too late for Italy
The professor doesn't think the giant quarantine will help.

- It's a disaster in Italy. It is too late for them to stop the infection in the country now. There will be more and more infected. Some younger ones will get severe infections, but the vast majority will be healthy. Among the elderly, those over 75-80, quite a few will die, says Agnes Wold, professor in clinical bacteriology.

She fears that health care in Italy can be forced back to a level far below what we are used to today.

- They can be forced to shut down ordinary operations except the most important ones. They have to change completely to be able to cope with those who have severe corona infection and difficulties to breathe. Even though there is a small risk for the individual, there are very many people that must be taken care of right away. It's a horrible scenario and it will be that way until we get a drug for corona, and eventually a vaccine.

- 90 percent of cases in Sweden are Italian travelers. It says a bit about the situation in Italy.

n.b. Current cases in Sweden: 261.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:49:13 PM »
China has banned consumption, breeding, transport and trade of all wildlife on land and most wildlife in the sea. The ban includes the whole animal, byproducts, skin, fur, eggs and so on. It's also illegal to advertise or even make recipes including the banned items.

I think this means no more social media videos of people eating bat soup or whatever. At least not from China.

Source: http://www.hubei.gov.cn/xxgk/gsgg/202003/t20200306_2173588.shtml

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 11:27:03 PM »
Northern Italy hospitals in desperate situation. Intensive care prioritized for people aged between 40 and 60.

Paywalled link:

https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/in-edicola/articoli/2020/03/08/noi-costretti-a-scegliere-tra-i-40enni-e-i-60enni/5729389/

Disclaimer: I have tried to find a second source but failed. I have no idea if that paper is a tabloid or a credible source.

22
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 17, 2020, 09:23:21 PM »
Found on Reddit (/r/COVID19)

Today China has published a paper with detailed data on more than 44,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

Uploaded on github: https://github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

23
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 12:50:41 AM »
Quote
Cruise Ship’s Coronavirus Outbreak Leaves Crew Nowhere to Hide
nytimes.com

When will the crew mutiny?

The funny and sad thing is that they (Japan) seem to have pulled some strings to have the cruise ship passengers not count as straight up Japanese cases in the WHO statistics.

They are listed as "International conveyance (Japan)".

To continue their play-pretend, the Japanese authorities isolated the ship. And created the biggest virus outbreak outside China.

*Slow clap*

24
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 09, 2020, 12:48:56 AM »
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

I think it's quite obvious that basic hospital care (for example treatment with added oxygen) means life instead of death for many severely/critically ill patients. The Hubei province, especially Wuhan City, didn't have hospital capacity to meet demands as the outbreak gained momentum. With the recently added hospital capacity, as well as increased understanding how to treat patients, I expect the death rate to drop quickly. There are 10 000 cases outside of Hubei but only 26 deaths (0,2%).


25
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 09, 2020, 12:34:55 AM »
Russian TV is spreading conspiracy theories about the corona virus on prime time news programmes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51413870


26
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 31, 2020, 12:15:15 AM »
The official web site for the local government (http://www.hubei.gov.cn/) is quite readable even using your favourite translator.

They update the numbers daily, some of which never make it to other reports (the WHO situation reports seem to sum up patients in severe and critical condition and call them "severe").

The latest update on the Hubei web site:
32340 under observation
5806 confirmed cases
804 severely ill
290 critically ill
204 deaths
116 released patients

I got stuck browsing that website, a lot of information and an insight in how the local government is handling the situation. One of the news on the site today was that a science team has sequenced the entire genome of the virus. The go-ahead to start research was given on jan 10. So they set up a high-security lab, manned it, isolated the virus and mapped the whole genome in about 3 weeks. Quite impressive I would say.

27
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 28, 2020, 10:36:42 PM »
The WHO situation reports are here:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

A bit slower than the news outlets but hopefully higher quality. One fact from the latest report is interesting/worrying:

"Patients with 2019-nCoV infection, are presenting with a wide range of symptoms. Most seem to have mild disease, and about 20% appear to progress to severe disease, including pneumonia, respiratory failure and in some cases death."

The news and local government here (Sweden) are comparing the coronavirus with the seasonal flu. However, 20% of the flu cases are not "severe" and the flu isn't anywhere near the death rate of the coronavirus.

I guess I'm misreading something, but what?

If 20% of the cases progress to a severe condition, no country will have nearly enough intensive care capacity to treat all patients if an outbreak occurs. For example, Sweden as a country can treat about 500 intensive care patients. In the latest situation report 926 cases are severe with just 4537 confirmed cases.

28
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 08:37:54 PM »
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.

I have a very faint memory about a post that refered to a report stating that global warming may make landfalls rarer due to more powerful ridges blocking movement over land. In light of recent events (Harvey, Dorian) the report might be almost correct, the hurricanes stall just off- or almost on-shore with dramatic effects. I'll search a bit and edit this post if I find the report.

29
@Grubbegrabben

Did you watch their videos?

You seem to have sarcastically dismissed what I thought seemed like sound science. I only considered the price point to be the possible problem factor.

One of their videos even shows you around their test site.

The lack of news updates on their site is why I'm here, and somewhat concerning, but sometimes a proof of concept could take a couple of years to get to a point of results to announce. Maybe they're waiting on patents/investor deals.  Maybe they're out of money.

But is the science wrong? You don't think you can extract hydrogen this way?

Sorry about the sarcasm, but it is so obviously fake that I couldn't help myself. No I don't think this is remotely possible.

The videos contain basically no information (viewed both). The test site is a bunch of rusty pipes and a few fuse boxes with a "Proton Technologies" sticker. The only comment on one video is "Did you prove at least some of the concept on your Superb testing facility? Especially the concentration of Hydrogen in the waste gas ISC processes generate? So far the known numbers are around 1.5-2%"

On the other video comments are disabled.

I am a programmer but work closely with electronic and mechanical design teams. My gut feeling is that a device containing a hydrogen separator membrane, a microvawe radio energy source, a hydrogen locator, a hydrogen pump and various other stuff located INSIDE an oil well @500C is well beyond any engineering capacity known to mankind.

The Venera capsules sent by the russians to Venus did operate at 500C for like 20-50 minutes so to some extent it is possible I guess.

30
This looks very much like a scam to me. They got a decent chunk of government money in dec -17 and after that they have zero "news" on their website. Also, they are mentioned on the same sites that report on the e-cat...

This is an extract from their website (that made me laugh out loud):

"Oxygen-enhanced air is produced at the wellhead, and then injected deep into the reservoir through an ‘Oxinjection Well‘. Gases, coke and heavier hydrocarbons are oxidized in place (a process known as In-Situ Combustion). Targeted portions of the reservoir become very warm. Where necessary, the temperatures are heightened further through radio frequency emissions. Eventually, oxidation temperatures exceed 500°C. This extreme heat causes the nearby hydrocarbons, and any surrounding water molecules, to break apart. Both the hydrocarbons and the H2O become a temporary source of free hydrogen gas.After creating free hydrogen, one or more Hygeneration wells extracts the elemental hydrogen, using Proton’s patented Hygenerator. The Hygenerator is a dynamic down-hole device that uses feedback from inside the wells to intelligently locate hydrogen. A selective membrane inside the Hygenerator filters the gases, and a pump moves pure hydrogen gas up to the wellhead"

So, blow oxygen into an oil well, add some sort of microwave oven and harvest hydrogen gas using basically a magical wand called a Hygenerator. Yeah, right. If this works, it will be just slightly less complicated to operate than a mission to mars (imo).

Edit: The last news was dec -17 and not -18 as in my original post.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 02:46:21 PM »
Sorry for off-topic but food supplies globally are at an all-time high. Read the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (released July 11). Why post a doomsday prediction for food supply when there are zero facts to back it up?

32

I know I can stop. Thank you for pointing that out.

And I'm inclined to believe you that many here are involved in various ways to combat the problem.  For those so engaged...kudos and thank you !!!!

Does that mean we shouldn't be curious about how we can do better and optimize our efforts?? I don't think so.

For example....if someone wants to post a petition for others to sign, should ASIF have a place for that? Is ASIF intentionally apolitical? I see political discussion threads here and Neven engages there. His political views are quite similar to mine.

Anyway...I'm glad you're engaging and encouraging some kind of activism. Yesterday I emptied the clip on my 60 Bay Area contacts and encouraged them to attend the Sunrise protest at the DNC in August. The youngsters are pushing for a climate debate.

In 2017 I think there were someone posting endless "we need to call politicians, talk to journalists, engage people" bla bla bla. It is very tiresome, please, there are hundreds of organizations and groups to join that do exactly that. There is absolutely no point trying to turn ASIF into something it isn't. Please feel free to leave and pursue that goal elsewhere. Bye.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 28, 2019, 10:25:09 PM »
No idea what one calls this pattern but 250 hPa on nullschool is pretty impressive! (or a mess if you are looking for a nice rational jet stream!!)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-64.39,88.54,568

Does anyone have a picture of what it should look like, just for those of us who don't exactly know. I'm assuming much more tight and circular?

Use the link but flip the globe and look at the south pole.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:35:47 PM »
If water (A) is added in cracks between ice floes it will displace the water below (C).
It will not magically float on top (B).
Even if it doesnt mix.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 11, 2019, 12:46:51 AM »
Car makers to spend $300 billion on EV development. Yes I had to read that number twice as well.

Quote
The $300 billion that automakers have earmarked to put electric vehicles into mass production in China, Europe and North America is greater than the economies of Egypt or Chile

Quote
Almost one-third of the industry’s EV spending total, about $91 billion, is being committed by the Volkswagen Group
....
VW’s staggering EV budget dwarfs that of its closest competitor, Germany’s Daimler AG, which has committed $42 billion. In comparison, General Motors Co. — the No. 1 U.S. automaker — has said it plans to spend a combined $8 billion on electric and self-driving vehicles.

I have a feeling VW is going all in. $91 bn is a serious amount of money (annual sales are about $200 bn). Hopefully this means that at least the transport sector is relatively quickly going electric.

Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/10/business/vw-china-spearhead-300-billion-global-drive-make-cars-electric/#.XDfQOFxKiCg

Observation: Facit, a Swedish company making calculators. In 1970, the company had reached its peak with more than 14,000 employees worldwide. In 1971, modern Japanese-made calculators started to seriously disrupt the industry, instantly making Facit's mechanical calculators obsolete. As a result, Facit went out of business virtually overnight. In Swedish business theory, this is called "the Facit trap" (Swedish:Facitfällan), inability to follow a technology shift, even if skill and money is available.


36
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 04, 2018, 11:45:53 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?

Question:

The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.

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