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Messages - StopTheApocalypse

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The Fast Transition
« on: April 29, 2017, 01:04:04 AM »
The snow discussion is getting off-topic. The topic itself is an excellent subject. I believe there are two key questions:
1. Can low ice cover at the end of summer (and/or anomalous accumulated heat in the water) cause significantly lower FDDs during winter?
2. Can lower FDDs and the resulting lower volume translate to low ice cover at the end of summer?
If both answers are true, we will have a fast transition.
The slow transition theory postulated FDDs unaffected by end-of-summer ice cover, cutting the feedback loop.
This year seems to show that  the answer to 1 is yes (though of course it could be just random coincidence). The jury is still out on 2. If we get a low ice cover in Sept, and then low FDDs next winter as well, it will give much more confidence in this fast feedback cycle.

Excellent summary. I might generalize a bit and say: how much of the extra energy accumulated by the oceans in the case of a loss of summer sea ice will stay concentrated in the arctic, and how much will be distributed elsewhere in the earth? Is that a fair question? And if so, what are the main mechanisms by which this energy is distributed? I ask out of ignorance, not because I think the answers are not known.

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