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Messages - Shared Humanity

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Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: Today at 08:44:01 PM »
oren, nice to hear that I'm not the only one watching this closely :)

Wild speculation--there seem to be cases now stemming from Iran where no connection to China can be established. Could this be the result of an independent jump from animal to human in Iran?

--Much wilder speculation/observation--what countries are the US's biggest threats economically (trade wars anyone), and militarily (very recently on the verge of a new 'hot war')...?? Hmmmmm--

Iran has extensive business ties with China. With such a long asymptomatic incubation period with some cases, I expect this is simply that community transfer has been established in Iran as a result of travelers from China. Would not be surprised if Iran numbers look like South Korea shortly.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 20, 2020, 05:12:24 PM »
Mission summary: WHO Field Visit to Wuhan, China 20-21 January 2020

Link >>

Vox, perhaps your sources are shit and this is the reason i don't read your posts anymore.

Who you going to believe...some random source or WHO? ;-)

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 19, 2020, 04:49:58 PM »
The death rate from the novel coronavirus has risen to 2.67%, based on today’s official figures from China. That’s based on 2,010 deaths worldwide and 75,199 confirmed cases.

The rate was thought to be around 2%. I’m not an expert in infectious diseases but that figure is growing.

I believe that death rate is way overstated and, in the final analysis, we will discover it is much lower. Minor cases in China and elsewhere are simply not being captured in the statistics. My guess is there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese who contracted COVID-19 and they only have mild cold symptoms before recovering fully.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 08:42:06 PM »
Coronavirus ‘lab leakage’ rumors spreading
Ebright said the coronavirus was a cousin of one found in bats captured by the institute in caves in the southwestern province of Yunnan in 2003, and that samples had been kept in the Wuhan lab since 2013.
Also, a paper that appeared in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet at the end of last month has lent credibility to speculation about the origins of the virus. The paper quoted seven doctors at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital as saying that the first patient admitted on December 1 had “never been to the wet market,” nor had there been any epidemiological link between the first patient and subsequent infection cases, based on the data from the first 41 patients treated there.
Furthermore, a note from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology is seen as a tacit admission that some kind of incident may have occurred at the Wuhan lab.

You know, people, this is probably a natural mutation and species jump. Probably.
But China has a history of disinformation, and is reluctant to allow outsiders in Hubei. It is a known liar acting like it is lying. And they have the technology to create such a virus. They have a motive...they are a rising superpower. And the origin was right at their top virus lab.
And in the Thirties, if we make it, we will have to wonder about biohackers as well when this happens again.

Please stop posting this stuff.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: February 18, 2020, 07:19:48 PM »
Southeast FL is screwed.

Things that Florida residents can look forward to as their sewage systems fail.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 16, 2020, 11:39:24 PM »
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?
I think "ice" refers to sea ice.
should have put that in stupid questions thread

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:58:45 PM »
Wyoming lawmakers proposed a bill this week that would have penalized utility companies for using renewable energy sources to supply electricity to ratepayers.

We are too stupid to avoid extinction. My only regret is we are driving a huge number of species to extinction as well and they have done nothing to deserve their fate.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:16:27 PM »
My pleasure. And thank you for all your many insights and perspicacity on these threads!

Had to google that word...

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:08:38 PM »
Plastic bags can still be used for a few things like uncooked meat, fish, and poultry.

NY's plastic bag ban is coming: Here's what to know about the stores, the charges and the changes

How did we survive before plastic bags? I'm old enough to remember fresh meat being wrapped in wax coated paper.

Plastic bags are simply in existence to support our hormone and antibiotic infused, nondiverse, factory farmed, meat products.

And I use the term "meat products" intentionally as the chicken you find in your local supermarket has little in common with a healthy chicken.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 16, 2020, 06:02:25 PM »
Explain to me how something that has occurred throughout history (locust plagues) can suddenly be blamed on climate change.

Actually, if you would simply read some of the linked articles, you would have your explanation.

The insects behind the mayhem are desert locusts, which, despite their name, thrive following periods of heavy rainfall that trigger blooms of vegetation across their normally arid habitats in Africa and the Middle East. Experts say a prolonged bout of exceptionally wet weather, including several rare cyclones that struck eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula over the last 18 months, are the primary culprit. The recent storminess, in turn, is related to the the Indian Ocean Dipole, an ocean temperature gradient that was recently extremely pronounced, something that’s also been linked to the devastating bushfires in eastern Australia.

Unfortunately, some experts say it may be a harbinger of things to come as rising sea surface temperatures supercharge storms and climate change tips the scales in favor of circulation patterns like the one that set the stage for this year’s trans-oceanic disasters.

“If we see this continued increase in the frequency of cyclones,” says Keith Cressman, senior locust forecasting officer with the Food and Agriculture Organization, “I think we can assume there will be more locust outbreaks and upsurges in the Horn of Africa.”

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”
I thought that once you recover from a virus you are least for a long time.
The reason you keep getting colds and flus is because there are dozens of different varieties of these diseases.
Am I wrong, or is Covid-19 mutating so fast?

Is it possible that while the meds are dramatically reducing the viral load in the patient, they are also suppressing the patients own immune system? They then release the "recovered" patient only to have the virus grow rapidly again in the now immune suppressed patient.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 05:01:28 PM »
It is also easy to imagine people deciding they are better off hoping to recover without help than seeking help such that the figures don't show the picture at all.

Place yourself in China with conditions that are being reported. Your local hospital is approaching collapse with patients not getting the care they need. You can be damn certain I have decided to care for my sick mother at home as I have quite logically decided her chances rise dramatically under my attentive care.

I will bring her to the hospital only if she suddenly appears to be at death's door which accounts for the very high percentage of serious cases reported and death rates from those serious cases. My guess is that hundreds of thousands of Chinese are fighting mild cases at home.

This is actually very good news as it will ultimately reveal that the deadliness of this disease, while high, is overstated.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 16, 2020, 04:17:51 PM »
Quote from: SharedHumanity
... There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede. 
Can you share a peer-reviewed reference to qualify that opinion ... otherwise your creating a distraction that is going nowhere.

"Comparative studies of ethnically diverse human populations, particularly in Africa, are important for reconstructing human evolutionary history and for understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation and complex disease. African populations are characterized by greater levels of genetic diversity, extensive population substructure, and less linkage disequilibrium (LD) among loci compared to non-African populations."

This is not surprising as the modern human has spent far more time in Africa than the relative short space of time on the rest of earth as humans left Africa and spread rapidly across the planet. So, when people say something like "the genetic diversity between races", they are talking out of their ass and it says far more about themselves than science. I would strongly suggest this discussion talk about genetic differences between subgroups because race is a social construct with no meaning or proper role in scientific discussions.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 15, 2020, 12:24:32 AM »
Thread is becoming increasingly useless to read...I'll get my news elsewhere...carry on.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 14, 2020, 11:36:45 PM »
Sadly, there is no expert that you can post that will say that races are equal when it comes to medicine. Not scientifically anyway. There are differences, small as they may be.

Sorry. There is no such thing as race. It is an artificial construct that has no basis in science. You are focused on phenotype. There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 13, 2020, 08:15:18 PM »
And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.

If you simply read gerontocrat's comprehensive post, you will have your answer. Fluctuations are normal this time of year.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:46:05 PM »
LOL, why would it need my approval, Bluice? I don't understand.

If the question is about what's better, the western fake democracy or the Chinese fake communist system, then i say both are shitty in their own non-charming ways.


Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 08:08:52 PM »

North Korea has not reported a single case of coronavirus infection, although nearly 200 virus cases have been confirmed in the Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jilin that border the isolated nation.

Daily NK, a Seoul-based news service with informants in North Korea, reported Tuesday that a dozen coronavirus patients have been in quarantine at a hospital in Pyongyang, citing unnamed sources inside the country.


Having closed borders and being isolated from the rest of the planet is of benefit under these circumstances.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 05:23:13 PM »
and now the good news:

If a pandemic is avoided, we can all thank the Chinese.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2020, 04:55:16 PM »
Thanks again for the updates...a must visit for me...

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 10, 2020, 09:31:06 PM »
So Trump is totally unaware of the fact we live on a planet that has two hemispheres with alternate seasons....
Not unexpected for a Kiwi as we often get left off world maps.
Lucky you!  Apparently (from the map), there is no pandemic in N.Z. and Antarctica.   :)
And New Zealand is at the top of the United Nations flag, so be proud!

Only two hemispheres?  I have lived, at various times, in the Southern Hemisphere, the Northern Hemisphere and the Western Hemisphere.  Does anybody talk about the "Eastern Hemisphere"? (An internet search claims 1.3 million hits.)

The Western Hemisphere is a bullshit Eurocentric concept.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 10, 2020, 07:30:32 PM »

... “Notice how the coronavirus cases we’re seeing abroad are in the settings of the rich, such as cruise ships and ski resorts and business conferences? That probably means cases are going undetected among the poor.”

It also means that the wealthy who are traveling all over the world are the source of the spread to other countries. We need to quarantine the rich.  8)

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: February 09, 2020, 09:47:44 PM »
That's a really useful graph, bk. Personally, I will not be surprised if the thin purple crosses the X-axis sometime before 2050.  That is, the human death rate will overtake the birthrate and the human population will begin its inevitable decline.  This will be a momentous event in the history of our species.

This would require regions of the planet to experience horrific mass deaths and I do think this is possible. (famine, war etc.)

Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: February 09, 2020, 07:37:43 PM »
I second Oren with the thanks. Tracking these atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases is the single best way to measure the adequacy of our efforts to avoid catastrophic warming. You are doing this site a service by providing these updates which serve as a context for discussions on many threads on this site. The numbers are not good but necessary.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: February 09, 2020, 06:14:52 PM »
Reimagining Ourselves and Community

Anthropogenic Global Warming is arguably the most serious threat to human civilization ever encountered. In large part, I am pessimistic as to whether we will be able to avoid its worst effects due to the fact that any real concerted effort to address the problem is contrary to very powerful interests. These interests are very public in their arguments against taking any radical action. They work to minimize the seriousness of the problem while simultaneously playing to the fears of ordinary people (I consider myself to be one of these.) by emphasizing the damage it will do to the world's economy. They argue that it is absolutely necessary to sustain the existing growth system which supplies the material wealth that most of us seek. This conflict between our need to immediately take massive and quite disruptive action while simultaneously sustaining the system mirrors the conflict within each of us. We want to address the problem of climate change while still achieving the growth needed for us to accumulate wealth. I consider this conflict irresolvable, this dual purpose unachievable.

The problem, for all of us, rests with the simple fact that the current growth system, the modern industrial economy which spans the globe, is the root cause of our problem. We have been destroying ecosystems across the planet, a destruction that is occurring at an accelerating pace. We all know this. We all work within the existing political structures to minimize this environmental damage in our own backyards but we are unwilling to accept that the problem is systemic.

The solution is also systemic in nature. We need to jettison the existing growth system. We have the necessary technology to overcome this existential crisis. We also have the necessary resources if we immediately bring them to bear on the problem. What is lacking is the political will. Our failure is one of imagination. None of us are able to imagine a method of interacting with others which does not assume the continuation of the very system which will guarantee our destruction.

I am not certain we will be able to overcome the fear that paralyzes us all. We must all agree to take action that would appear to not be in our best interests. But our concept of self interest here is too narrow, focusing only on our material well being. It ignores what makes us uniquely human. The revolution must originate in our minds, in our concepts of self, community and happiness.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 03, 2020, 05:32:47 PM »
I find it interesting that this thread, covering one infectious disease, in a matter of days, has accumulated more posts than its parent thread, covering all infectious diseases, accumulated in a matter of years.

This thread has really brought the anti-science doomer contingent out of the woodwork.

Also the conspiracy kooks...just have to skip by that shit.

My 1st grandchild, Rose, turns 2 in April. Her life is likely going to be a living hell. This saddens me beyond measure.

I comprehend that our actions should be informed by the extreme right tail risks. I just wonder how it is best to go about doing that?

I believe the last IPCC report was clear on how to go about doing this.

1. Cut human CO2 emissions 40% by 2030.
2. Eliminate all human CO2 emissions by 2050.

Anything less than this and we are in serious trouble. What we are currently doing (CO2 emissions for 2019 set a new record, beating the previous record set in 2018.) and we are truly fucked.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 03, 2020, 04:30:11 PM »
I would again like to express my gratitude to both of you for your posts tracking extent and area progress through the freeze season. I visit daily.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 02, 2020, 05:32:15 PM »
10:30 a.m. in Chicago
Currently 45 F / 7.2 C
Forecast high 51 F / 10.5 C

We have not had a winter in Chicago....

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 31, 2020, 06:29:55 PM »

... If it takes root here it will fall hardest on the working poor, who don’t get paid if they don’t show up and/or fear losing their jobs if they don’t go to work. The lack of paid sick leave policies is a danger to all of us.

If I were a cook or cleaning person for the wealthy in DC and thought I might be sick, I'd start smearing phlegm and nasal secretions on surfaces all over the house.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 31, 2020, 06:23:56 PM »
The sun is back in Barrows/Utqiagvik

Somebody shut the door.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 29, 2020, 09:35:48 PM »
This post will surprise you. You’ll think I am nuts, it took me some time to decide to write all of this down. Please read til the end, there’s links all along so you can fact check everything. Please share it, so truth is spread. It's about coronavirus. Enter thread:

Link >>

That guy is a nut.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 28, 2020, 03:58:17 PM »
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.

Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.

Thanks for the link. Well worth the read.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 26, 2020, 07:56:24 PM »
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?

I'm thinking yes unless the economy collapses.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 24, 2020, 03:49:25 AM »
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 23, 2020, 03:34:53 AM »
Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?
At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.

And since volume is the most important metric, I would base the end of the freeze season on this.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:26:23 PM »
1,5C is not a magical treshhold but 1C would have been much more sensible as we can conclude from seeing a world overshooting that.

Then there are those other little details like us murdering the Amazon and converting lots of other old growth forests into something else. Actively destroying the sinks.

While we are also adding fun elements in the mix which do not have historical comparisons.

Also the point is not apocalypse but the suffering of billions most of whom have not really contributed much to our current predicament.

Driving to work last week, I got caught up in a horrific traffic jam. Took 2 hours for what is normally a 40 minute commute. There was a multi-car collision with multiple fatalities. One man's inconvenience is another man's apocalypse.


In the poorest of the 3d world many have survived with very little for a long time. Here in the 1st world most will panic the day the grid winks out permanently.
We've never hunted rats for sustenance, believe there is something morally wrong with cannibalism, and few will kill another for a few days food.
Humans will certainly survive, (assuming no government does the unthinkable), but civilization will die.


The system of capitalism which all persons living in the developed world take for granted will not survive past 2070 and could very well disintegrate much sooner owing to humanity's tendency to choose "fight" when faced with threats.

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: January 21, 2020, 09:13:37 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 21, 2020, 09:01:30 PM »
Worth a read on Lithium sources.

We are far from out of Lithium.  How much we may want to pay for it, however, is another matter.
How much Bolivia's "Indians" have payed/will pay for it, is a matter we'd rather ignore.


"POC...who cares."  Western Capitalist Democracies

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 21, 2020, 08:24:04 PM »

Anybody got a guess of what we get in the next 10 years?

Based on your numbers I would say 5-8 cms sea level rise until 2030. Nothing to write home about. (don't misunderstand me, it is a serious long term problem and whole countries will be uinder water in 100-200 years, but not much to create interest in 10 years(

Sorry, sea level rise will be a catastrophe long before the end of this century and already is very problematic for some coastal regions. In parts of Miami, sewer systems fail periodically, spilling raw sewage into streets and this occurs with sunny day flooding.

The 1st thing to fail in our coastal cities will be sewer systems. The water does not need to be higher than ground level. Rising water tables are filling sewer systems with ground water, rendering them periodically inoperable and eventually causing them to fail entirely.

No city can survive without a functioning waste water system.

I wonder, do you emotionally connect with all this?

I have found that when I expressed my emotions in this forum in the past it was either a waste of time, or actually counter-productive, so now I try to stick with the scientific method approach as much as practicable.

And I appreciate your approach.

Per the attached image from the linked Scripps website, it certainly looks to me like through January 15, 2020 that atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are still following RCP 8.5:

Which needs to be mentioned on this site over and over and over again. Too many people here make comments about how we will be OK, using RCP 4.5 even when we have little hope of following this path.

You know we are in trouble when the U.S. national weather service hypes every winter storm as a disaster in the making and something we have never seen before. The last winter storm was a real nothing burger in the Midwest with Chicago getting light rain and high winds.

This season, Chicago has not had a single day or night with temps below 0F.

What does "doom" mean?


doom (countable and uncountable, plural dooms)

   1. Destiny, especially terrible.
   2. An undesirable fate; an impending severe occurrence or danger that seems inevitable.
   3. A feeling of danger, impending danger, darkness or despair.

Pretty accurate I'd say.

Yeah, sounds spot on.

The Snow Cover Extent and Snow Water Equivalent metrics are getting a little crazy.

(I miss having bbr2314 here saying it is heralding a new ice age.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2020, 09:22:52 PM »
Windmills are sprouting up in farm fields across Indiana. The land is leased long term and the income generated supports family farms.

Quote from: kassy
And i could add another paragraph or two but i won´t.

That's too bad kassy, I find your view interesting and could have learned something and/or updated my own view.
Maybe later in another thread? :)

Weird weather:

Last winter here in the Netherlands, there were only 3 days where the temperature was below 0 °C the whole day..

There will be no more "Elfstedentocht" I fear.
I expect it may get cold enough again sometime in the future, but there's no stability anymore. Weeks of frostdays are necessary but the weather changes too quickly for that to happen in my view.

Cook County where Chicago is located, use to have toboggan runs in many of their forest preserves. They started removing them 20 years ago because of a lack of snow. None remain. Use to go to them all of the time as a kid.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 14, 2020, 09:06:15 PM »
" We have found that seasonal differences in bottom water temperatures in the Arctic Ocean vary from 1.7°C in May to 3.5°C in August. The methane seeps in colder conditions decrease emissions by 43 percent in May compared to August.""

If I'm suppose to feel relieved that an increase in bottom water temperatures of less than 2C can increase methane emissions by 43%, I must be missing something.

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