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Messages - Coffee Drinker

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 04, 2019, 03:54:52 AM »
There is more than enough heat in the deep water to melt the ice and keep the arctic ice free year round. 

However, the heat can not move upwards through the halocline. 

The halocline is 50 meters thick (at least) and is very difficult to breach.  If it ever happens, look out!   The arctic will be a completely different place.

Maybe more open water and wind will create warm upwellings along the continental margins?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:37:50 AM »
I go with ice island circling around the pole. Northern Greenland can get surprisingly hot.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 04:39:32 AM »
Somebody need to spend time up north near a frozen lake during summer and just observe. Arm chairs are nice...

It totally depends on the wind direction. I grew up at the Baltic Sea which is freezing in spring. Wind blowing from the land and there is basically no difference temperature wise between the beach and 50km inland. Same at the arctic coast. 30C air blowing over the ice from Siberia is entirely possible. How far the heat can travel over the ice largely depends on the speed of the wind and how sustained the heat transfer is. The statement that temperature is "locked" at 0C over the ice is simply wrong.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 08:32:37 AM »
I think a BOE can happen any year now. Not as the new normal but as an outlier like 2012 was. You just need one year with the perfect conditions to align. Poor winter ice formation. Plenty of sun during peak insulation and heavy storms before and after that. I don't think a single BOE will cause the whole system to go into full disaster mode. The following years could easily recover and follow  the normal decline path until BOE's become the normal a decade or so later.

I guess, once BOE are the new norm, the next milestone would be real BOE. Meaning absolutely zero ice in September.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 01:12:14 AM »
May I ask whats so special and unusual about the temperature chart? For a layman this is not obvious straight away.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again. 

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2018
« on: April 24, 2018, 04:40:57 AM »
Maybe those holes have something to do with the mud volcanoes in the Beaufort Sea?

https://www.yukon-news.com/business/mud-volcanoes-burble-beneath-icy-beaufort-sea/

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 23, 2018, 07:28:22 AM »
Open water now visible at Nome, Alaska. Spring has arrived with full force. 


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