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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:50:35 AM »
For what's it's worth, HYCOM shows an interesting forecast for north of Greenland in early August - a large gap opening up, larger than anything I've seen there before.

Bear in mind, though, HYCOM does tend to be a bit enthusiastic at times. It remains to be seen whether its forecast comes off!


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 07:25:35 PM »
A few pictures from HYCOM (which is absolutely fine to use btw, if you have errors import the cert to your root store and you won't see any more messages).

1 - today's HYCOM
2 - the same day in 2016
3 - HYCOM at the 2016 minimum

(A different algorithm is used compared to 2012, so I've not posted those charts here).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 08:39:33 AM »
Let's not refer to HYCOM too much. I can't even access the NRL site anymore without getting repeated warnings from my virus scanner. Who knows what they're doing over there.
The warning will be because their SSL certificate is issued by someone not in your root store - i.e. the Department of Defense. It's all above-board and nothing to worry about (and I say that as an IT nerd).

Here's the archive sea ice thickness chart from the same stage in 2012 - the difference to the current forecast is stark!

(EDIT: I've attached the minimum chart from later in 2012 for comparison. I suspect their algorithms will have changed since then, but I find it an interesting sight as even at the minimum the HYCOM thicknesses were greater than we have now, in July!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 05:36:23 AM »
I've included a couple of archived Bremen concentration maps (earliest I could get for July was the 23rd), and as you can see, 2012 and 2016 don't appear definitively "holier" than 2019; at least from what I can tell. (edit - though 2019 has a lot more purely open water.)
Here's the Bremen map for the 3rd July 2012.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 05:35:03 PM »
The latest HYCOM forecast is sobering - the North Pole is looking increasingly vulnerable, with a massive loss of thickness across the basin.

I've attached the final frame (forecast for a week's time) to this post.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 18, 2019, 06:27:48 PM »
Looks like it's about to kick off in the Laptev...

Yesterday's image vs today's, showing the fast ice crumbling. (Click to animate)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 06:27:02 PM »

Lucky ? - from there can't look at the other stuff?
You can look up other days' charts by tinkering with the URL below:

(Note that for other months you'll need to change the /jun/ bit as well as the date in the filename).

If you know exactly what you're after, you can browse the files here:

Looks like it's just the homepage which is down, the actual files are fine.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 05:47:29 PM »
My prediction, then, based on observation, climatology, and history: 2019 is about to see a very large--perhaps even record-breaking--drop in ASI extent.
That sounds like a sensible prediction to me!

I would agree with those who've posted to say that it's the melt ponds confusing the sensors and that we're primed for a swift break-up of the Laptev fast ice; it seems that we've gone through what usually takes a couple of weeks in less than a week.

This GIF of part of Laptev shows it well... we go from fast ice, to "blue" fast ice awash with surface melt (which appeared as water in Bremen charts, for example), to a whiteish drained ice state (which appears as ice again to the sensors).

However, I would imagine that drained ice isn't going to hang around much, it reminds me of a slush puppy after you've sucked out all the flavouring, leaving just clear slush behind!

(The GIF runs from the 7th to the 14th June, a frame a day).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 11, 2019, 07:52:55 PM »
The 12z GFS has really gone off on one at the day 10 mark - showing mid 30s temperatures (celcius, that is!) adjacent to what presently is fast ice on the shores of the Laptev.

(or via if that direct link above doesn't work - choose the 12z run of the 11th June).

I'd take that the same way as I would any forecast at 10 days, i.e. with a massive pile of salt, but nonetheless it's quite amazing to see. I can't imagine any ice lasting for long with that sort of heat blowing over it...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 16, 2018, 08:31:15 AM »
Watch that fast ice crumble! This is three days' worth of imagery of the Laptev Sea, 14, 15 and 16th June.

(Click image to see animation).

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