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Messages - Sailaway

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:06:32 AM »
Having performed a quick trawl of the web the earliest commercial cruise planned for the Northwest Passage this summer seems to be Hanseatic Spirit, departing Kangerlussuaq for Anchorage on August 13th

However I have found no reference to a "small vessel" planning for a passage this year. There do seem to be some "pleasure craft" heading North up the west coast of Greenland at present though. Does anybody know any more than that?

https://tc.canada.ca/en/covid-19-measures-updates-guidance-issued-transport-canada/backgrounder-new-measures-pleasure-craft-operators-limit-spread-covid-19

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:07:17 AM »
I have seen such pieces sticking out and being stood up on the O-Buoy movies (which I've recently linked to again on the buoys thread), after what seemed like floe collisions. However, this does not make the ice stronger, these are small pieces and are prone to falling again, and in addition the part standing outside the water can catch the low sun easily, so I doubt this can make much difference and delay melt-out. I would expect a good defensive process requires very cold and structurally strong ice to succeed, so mid-July compaction would not do much good. On the contrary, I would expect floe edges to break and large floes to split apart during such pressures, so it is quite probable that this process actually speeds melt-out somewhat.
(Caveat - I am just an amateur here, cannot base this on actual science).

I think the situation is far more complex than that. The extension above the surface of the surrounding flows would be matched by a proportional "keel" below the underside of the general level of the ice. There would be a macro effect of increasing the friction resistance to any wind and a below surface in the water. As wind and current are not normally in alignment this would exert additional forces across the ice at local and regional levels. The resulting rotational forces would tend to increase the rate of the mechanic erosion of the ice structures.

3
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 31, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »
Bush fire activity has increased today with 40+ temps and some wind. Tomorrow  will see higher overnight temps and wind averages up from today. The worst case scenario for tomorrow would see the ACT fire spread and join up with the existing coastal fire. (I don't think it will be that bad) Spot fire of 10ha have already started from the embers at least 5 km from the main front - some of the spot fired have already integrated with the main fire. Spent the day listening to the fire fighter talking on the emergency services channels!!

Sunday may give us a few mm of rain from thunderstorms so there is little help and a high risk of new fires from dry strikes. Winds will clock over the following days with the potential to drive the fires inland and potentially join up with the fires in the Snowy Mountains. That country is rugged and fires can only really be fought from the air. Every 10 degree increase in gradient doubles the potential fire speed. Not good at all.

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fire-spread-prediction-for-saturday-1-february-2020


4
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 29, 2020, 05:07:11 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.

Sorry it was sold last year by Channel Nine!!!!!
 And it is not owned by Murdock, Packer ....

5
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 29, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
It’s not over.

Quote
Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
https://twitter.com/martin_o/status/1222106288584216578
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

6
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:09:46 AM »
Meanwhile as arguments continue there is a small (171ha) fire burning out of control a couple of miles from Parliament House. Every thing that been thrown at this fire within minuets due to the proximity of the airport, military assets and housing. Mind you another 5 of the fires have returned to Emergency warning levels as they are out of control.

https://esa.act.gov.au/emergency-warning-beard-oaks-estate-and-crestwood

Nero where are you?


7
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 10, 2020, 08:25:53 AM »

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 25, 2019, 11:52:01 AM »
Just for clarification are we talking about Metric or Imperial Smidgeon

Thanks

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: April 18, 2019, 12:27:19 PM »
The way to calculate the high of a tide at any given point uses the "Rule of 12th.

The rule states that over the first period the quantity increases by 1/12. Then in the second period by 2/12, in the third by 3/12, in the fourth by 3/12, fifth by 2/12 and at the end of the sixth period reaches its maximum with an increase of 1/12. The steps are 1:2:3:3:2:1 giving a total change of 12/12. Over the next six intervals the quantity reduces in a similar manner by 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1 twelfths.





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