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Messages - Ktb

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Casual 2021 melting season predictions
« on: February 19, 2021, 05:01:21 AM »
Quote from: icefisher on February 19, 2021, 03:07:19 AM
Area minimum of 3,695,000 on Sept. 17 2021; Extent minimum of 4,972,000 on Sept. 9 2021.  A fairly decent year for retaining ice.

Even "recovery years" such as 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 did not see 4.9 million km2. Prepare to be wrong by a large margin.

My prediction is that icefisher's prediction will be very very far off the mark.

2
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 10, 2021, 11:13:11 AM »
I’m saying

1. The police should not be judge, jury, and executioner.

2. Breonna Taylor, a black woman shot by police while SLEEPING IN HER OWN HOME DURING A NO KNOCK RAID should still be alive. She did not place herself in an illegal or incriminating position. She was fucking sleeping. The examples go on and on of black people being killed while committing no crimes.

3. If neonazis break in to the Capitol looking for violence, nobody should be surprised when they are met with violence. They committed violent crimes. They should still be alive so they can face criminal charges. But they are not.

Anybody who believes that black and indigenous people being killed while attempting to gain the same level of rights and recognition provided to white people are on the same level as neonazis attacking the US Capitol is a bonafide moron. If you cannot see the difference, you are either too stupid to comprehend, or being purposefully dense.

3
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: January 07, 2021, 01:40:57 AM »
There is video proof that police removed the barricades and allowed terrorists to approach the Capitol. There is video proof of police and terrorists taking selfies in the Capitol building. There is video proof of police holding a woman's hand gingerly as he walks with her down the steps of the Capitol building.

When white supremacy is so entrenched in an institution that reform is not possible, the only remaining action is dismantling of that institution.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 29, 2020, 06:06:29 AM »
2020 spent 95 days below 6 million km2. Previous record held by 2019 with 86 days.

JAXA Data.

5
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 27, 2020, 02:12:00 AM »
I will not condemn the counterviolence perpetrated by America's left in this day and age.

Quote
Nobody in the world, nobody in history, has ever gotten their freedom by appealing to the moral sense of the people who were oppressing them.

- Assata Shakur

Non-violent protesters who are beaten by the State authority (in this case heavily militarized police) gain sympathy from the public at large. The American public supported the peaceful protests of the civil rights era because they witnessed savagery perpetrated by the State. The news media of the right failed to maintain control of the narrative that violence was occurring and have spent the better part of 53 years preparing for the inevitable reignition in this conflict for rights. And now the media has an unprecedented ability to deny that peaceful protest is taking place, or spin the peaceful protests as riots. Pacifism does not work when the public does not see it.

When the police claim there was a riot, the news media reports on that information to appear non-biased and then nobody of a comparable size or weight to the authority is brought on to say "No. Obviously this was not a riot." The protesters may have been peaceful does not align the general public against the authority as well as the protesters were peaceful.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 20, 2020, 07:40:02 AM »
64 days under 5 million km2

7
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 12, 2020, 02:54:21 PM »
The alt-right is an extremely important topic. It is in the appropriate politics section of the forum. It should not be removed.

Please, please moderate the thread appropriately. I find it odd I was asked to not bring up abortion with my opinion yet tom can roll into my thread and derail everything by discussing abortion ad infinitum.

I should hope that everyone who read my thread noted I never stoop to individual attacks even after being called out repeatedly. Ignore tom and move on.

Moderate the thread appropriately.

8
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 12, 2020, 01:42:28 AM »
Quote
The condemnation of liberation movements for resorting to violence or armed struggle is almost invariably superficial, hypocritical, judgmental, and unfair, and tends strongly to represent another example of the generalized phenomenon of blaming the victim. The violence of the situation the preexisting oppression suffered by those who eventually strike back, is conveniently ignored. The violence of the oppressed is a form of defensive counterviolence to the violence of conquest and oppression. In no armed national liberation movement I know of in history has this not been the case.

Jeff Sluka

Wili hit the nail on the head here.

9
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 11, 2020, 03:47:44 PM »
Quote
Critics who demand peaceful demonstrations are saying, whether they admit it or not, that the correct way to protest is to let a heavily militarized police force that has already demonstrated its willing to murder people in full view of the public beat them shitless. They are not wishing for nonviolence; they are stating a preference for whom the violence should happen to.

- Ian Danskin (Innuendo Studios)

 
Quote
A riot is the language of the unheard. And what is it that America has failed to hear? It has failed to hear that the plight of the Negro poor has worsened over the last few years. It has failed to hear that the promises of freedom and justice have not been met. And it has failed to hear that large segments of white society are more concerned about tranquility and the status quo than about justice, equality, and humanity. And so in a real sense our nation's summers of riots are caused by our nation's winters of delay. And as long as America postpones justice, we stand in the position of having these recurrences of violence and riots over and over again. Social justice and progress are the absolute guarantors of riot prevention.

- Martin Luther King Jr.

Quote
I have been repeating over and over again that he who cannot protect himself or his nearest and dearest or their honor by nonviolently facing death may and ought to do so by violently dealing with the oppressor.

- Mahatma Gandhi

10
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 11, 2020, 03:02:07 AM »
Briefly on the "alt-left": The term alt-right was created by the alt-right. The term alt-left was, unsurprisingly, created by the alt-right. It is used as a smear.

Quote
The scholar of public affairs Thomas J. Main commented on the alt-right by saying: "They don't think blacks and Jews should have equal rights. On the left, there is nothing analogous"

https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-alt-left-20170816-story.html

So everybody should understand, at least in modern America, there is no alt-left. Any attempt to shift the discussion to the "alt-left" is disingenuous and should be treated as such.

11
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 03:28:20 PM »
Renounce whatever you want. I post two 1000+ word discussions on the alt-right and tom decides the only thing to focus on is abortion.

Which to specify once again, is only a minor minor focus of the alt-right.

12
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 01:52:48 PM »
This thread is on the alt-right. I am happy to discuss your “murder” views in the appropriate abortion thread.

All I will say on topic is about the “white genocide” fake hypothesis. The idea that where other races spread, whiteness has to be maintained is insanity.

13
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 01:30:22 PM »
Interesting how god can make intersex animals (https://twitter.com/aventuraobscura/status/1314150808141864962?s=21) but not intersex humans. There are so many examples of intersex, bisexual, gay, or other animals but when it comes to humans it’s “abomination”.

I do think Iran, Saudi Arabia and other religious theocracies are oppressive. Don’t be delusional.

Ah good to follow the Catholic Church since the pope himself has positive things to say about LGBTQ+, has things to say about climate change.

14
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 10:51:38 AM »
Yes, as etienne described the problem is not with workers/the working class, but with those with institutional power.

Make no mistake, the wealthiest nation that has ever existed has the capacity to feed its’ hungry, has the capacity to house its’ homeless, has the capacity to provide healthcare to its’ citizens.

To say that you are against immigration because we cannot provide for our own (as I will freely admit I thought for many years growing up) is a falsehood.

The question to ask then is what if there is zero immigration and still we do not feed our citizens, still do not house our homeless, still do not provide healthcare to all? Do we expel citizens? Some fascists would say yes.

15
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 07:43:36 AM »
I wrote those things because that is what alt-right groups tend to espouse and show support for.

The presence of a single one (or several) of those beliefs in a person does not make that person part of the alt-right. I would argue that the presence of a single one of those beliefs likely makes that person an asshole if sincere, and misinformed if not. I think there is also a sliding scale: being transphobic but generally supportive of other people and other rights just kind of makes you a jerk (this being as trans rights are generally newish on the larger political scene, many are still unfamiliar with trans people and trans rights. However similar to gay rights, in 10-20 years hopefully trans people are as accepted as gay people -- acknowledging that gay people still have a ways to go for full acceptance in mainstream culture). Being a full blown white supremacist makes you an absolute fuckhead.

My father has been leaning further and further right as he has aged. He now regularly posts anti-immigrant, anti-feminism, transphobic, and homophobic views. I would consider him both an asshole and a member of the alt-right. He has also surprised me occasionally by commenting in appropriate ways about the murder of George Floyd and the murder of Ahmaud Arbery. He has a gay brother who has been married since it was legalized, yet my father wants gay marriage overturned. Edit: People are complicated -- the above is reinforcement that you do not have to hold all of the above beliefs.

You do not have to join a specific group (sic hate group) in order to be a member of something/part of a movement. I firmly believe that the only reason my father has not joined one of these armed "militia" groups is that he is an old man in mediocre health.


I don't know your friends. I will say that there is an overwhelming amount of evidence that shows that immigration is good for an economy. Immigrants pay taxes while not receiving many social benefits. Immigrants do not take jobs from citizens. Immigrants are overwhelmingly law abiding (similar to how citizens are overwhelmingly law abiding). The majority of "illegal aliens" in the United States year after year are from people who came to the states legally with a visa and then did not leave the country when that visa expired. Not people crossing the border as a horde or caravan or any other fear mongering term used.
Your friends may be anti-immigration for whatever reason, but if they are not bigoted against Mexicans, people from Central America/South America I doubt they would cross into alt-right territory.

There is also a difference between "I think people should come to the USA legally, and those who are running from violence seeking asylum should be welcomed with open arms" and anti-immigrant views as written in previous comments vis a vis "go back to your country, we don't want you here", "this is America, speak American", etc.



Sorry for the long and winding post. I hope that answers your question sidd.


Edit: Additional note: The alt-right's anti-immigration mindset is a thin veil for racism. When they say they are anti-immigration what they typically mean is they are anti-brown people from Central and South America. They do not advocate for increased policing to pull over white people who might be from Europe. Nobody talks about tightening security at the US-Canada border (the longest border in the world) even as illegal crossings have been rising sharply.

16
The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 10, 2020, 04:01:00 AM »
538 national polling gives Biden a 10 percentage point lead over Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

17
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 03:59:30 AM »
Okay I'll humor you, although I doubt anybody on this forum does not have an idea of what the alt-right is and what alt-right means.

Alt-Right --- term coined by Paul Gottfried in 2008 after a paper published entitled The Decline and Rise of the Alternative Right. The term has been widely popularized and turbocharged by noted white supremacist Richard Spencer (seen here being punched in the face because ya know, nazis gonna nazi).

Admittedly, the term is "ill-defined" but generally refers to a the loose collective of groups which espouse and support ideas of white nationalism, white supremacism, white separatism, anti-immigration, pro-racism, anti-zionism and anti-semitism, holocaust denial, antifeminism, trans-phobia, homophobia, and islamophobia. Wow not a great list to be attached to. Groups using the self-appointed alt-right label are generally characterized as HATE GROUPS.

So now we know something of what the alt-right is, and some of what it believes. This is not a comprehensive list but I am happy to provide further studies if you or anybody else desires.

Violence --- Does the alt-right, by definition, involve violence. In my view American Conservatism is violence. The alt-right is a step further and so has to be more violent. Notably, my definition of violence may be different than yours.

The trajectory of the alt-right is to gently guide its followers further and further down the rabbit hole, swallowing red pill after red pill. With the majority of members being white, cis-het, males, the red pills swallowed tend to be about jewish conspiracies, holocaust denial, downplaying of slavery and the crusades, that feminism is about crushing men rather than elevating women to where men currently stand, sandy-hook truthers, reverse racism, economic precarity being caused by immigrants, and so on.

Many, I am sure, are aware that having a nebulous "other" to unite against is a compelling rallying cry for people. The alt-right provides many such "others" to rally against. The alt-right also, curiously, utilizes the fascist rhetoric that the nebulous other is simultaneously all-powerful and weak/unfit/sub-human (examples include Mexicans are coming to take our jobs, but Mexicans are also lazy; Jewish people control essentially all major corporations and governments in the world, but are also sub-human. Take your pick, there are many options.)

With the "other" provided, hatred abounds. Take 5 minutes to go browse /pol/ on 4chan, or save yourself the pain and trust me. Hatred and fear lead to violence. An excellent example of this is that hate crimes against Asian-Americans have been on the rise during the covid19 pandemic -- so much so that scientists have published journal articles about it). So once again, with an "other" provided (and that "other" including but not limited to women, LGBTQ+, immigrants, muslims, jewish people), fear and hatred flow. Young, white, cis-het men are told they are valuable for being white and cis-het. They are left to froth in their own anger. Violence follows: there has been an explosion of alt-right hate groups as tracked by the Southern Poverty Law Center -- 55% increase in white nationalist hate groups since 2017 and 43% increase in anti-LGBTQ+ hate groups in 2019 alone. And according to the SPLC hate crimes reached a 5 year high in 2015 as Trump marched towards the White House. According to Justice.gov hate crimes in 2017 reached numbers not seen since 2008, 2018 down slightly from 2017 and 2019 numbers not out yet. Another fun fact: for years provided by justice.gov, the year with the highest hate crime rate was 2001. Hmm, I wonder what happened that year for it to see such a spike?

The alt-right is a breeding ground for "lone wolves". If a person is unable to escape from the clutches of the alt-right there are generally 3 outcomes: nihilism/the black pill, becoming a "lone wolf", or joining a "militia" group or other hate group whose violence that person finds tolerable (i.e. "I find actually harming people to be too much for me, but I don't mind screaming racial slurs at hispanic American citizens and telling them to go back to their country.")

Edit: I would also like to add that among those who commit "lone wolf" type violence, many evoke reverence for the memes, hand signals, gestures, hashtags, and common talking points/phrases that the alt-right traffic in. We know that the alt-right radicalized him, the issue becomes did the alt-right tell him to do that. And generally the answer is no. There was no single directive issued by the alt-right to go out and shoot people. I would argue this is more plausible deniability on the part of alt-right leaders. They have clearly been enticing young men towards violence. But stopping short of saying lets go murder people, they cannot be charged with anything.

And another caveat: you can find videos of alt-right leaders talking on their podcasts/radio shows actually advocating for murder.

18
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 09, 2020, 04:47:42 PM »
Hefaistos: perhaps I should have named it Alt Right violence or something of that ilk. My intention was to create a mega thread for the alt-right and their activities.

Tom: trolling, feigning ignorance, or a genuine question?

19
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 09, 2020, 11:49:15 AM »
Violence is the logical conclusion to an ideology of hate.

Take it as you will.

20
The politics / The Alt Right
« on: October 09, 2020, 04:40:27 AM »
13 men have been arrested, state and federal officials announced conspiracy, terrorism and weapons charges.

6 of the men created a detailed plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitemer, extradite her to Wisconsin, and put her on "trial". Likely outcome of the trial would be execution.

The men planned to blow up a bridge in order to distract police during the attempted kidnapping.

The men regularly participated in military style weapons training, and on at least 2 occasions attempted to build IEDs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/us/gretchen-whitmer-michigan-militia.html


The Radical Left: Hey we want everybody to have healthcare!

The Radical Right: Let's kidnap and kill a governor.

21
Walking the walk / Re: Informative & Useful Books
« on: October 05, 2020, 03:33:19 PM »
Just finished Endgame Volume I by Derrick Jensen. A masterful compendium of the problem of civilization: that any creature that degrades its land base cannot live in that space sustainably, let alone forever.

Much of Jensen’s writing I found to be striking and profound, interspersed by uncomfortable and raw moments. He prefaces every chapter with a quote from some famous author/philosopher/etc. I found these to be compelling preludes and looked forward to finishing chapters so I could read the next introduction.

Volume II is apparently about how to take down civilization. But first, The Overstory by Richard Powers.

22
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 02, 2020, 07:21:25 AM »
POTUS and FLOTUS have both tested positive for covid-19.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/02/coronavirus-live-news-paris-faces-being-placed-on-maximum-alert-as-india-nears-100000-deaths

Trump tweets confirm the article.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849

23
The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 27, 2020, 12:17:16 PM »
Oren’s take is correct. Biden is not good. Trump is clearly worse.

Between gerrymandering, voter suppression, and intimidation, it is very possible for trump to win again. He could also lose and have a victory assigned by the Supreme Court.

24
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 22, 2020, 01:46:11 PM »
I wouldn’t waste your time Tskoul.

As said in the InnuendoStudios video entitled I Hate Mondays: it’s not actually about stopping abortion, it’s about punishing those who get abortions and controlling women.

When Tom and I took the topic of abortion to PM last time, I asked him if holding an 8 week old baby in one hand and a several day old fetus (read a clump of cells in a test tube) and he absolutely had to drop one off a cliff, which one would he choose?

Read his answer for yourself

25
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 22, 2020, 12:32:49 PM »
When presented with evidence that the abortion rates drop faster under Democrat administrations, he sticks his head in the sand. La la la I'm not listening!!!!!!!

Live as you want. Don't spew bullshit at me.

26
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: September 19, 2020, 03:17:56 PM »
Hopefully nobody here is a woman/has daughters/nieces/aunts/wives/mothers.

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) ladies and gentlemen: Tom Cotton after Trump names him potential Supreme Court nominee: 'It's time for Roe v. Wade to go'

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/515728-tom-cotton-after-trump-names-him-possible-justice-its-time-for-roe-v

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 02:27:47 AM »
Slater's model deserves more credit than it gets. Once again.

28
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 16, 2020, 01:58:14 AM »
And we will miss the AICHI 2030 targets as well. The main goal is "30 by 2030" or 30% of land and 30% of marine placed under conservation status by the year 2030. It ain't gonna happen. And so Gaia cries.

29
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:13:20 AM »
Extinction denial on the rise.

https://news.mongabay.com/2020/09/biologists-warn-of-extinction-denial-as-latest-anti-science-conspiracy/

Of course, why not?

30
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 06, 2020, 05:25:13 PM »
This shows that, although our predicted future rates and associated biodiversity losses are shockingly high, they are within a realistic range, since we can already see these future scenarios being manifested in parts of the world.

What a statement. Good lord. Thanks for posting that paper Gerontocrat. Great read. Depressing, but great.

Also, the term "extinction debt". The authors state it is substantial for class Mammalia. There may not be a descriptor word large enough/with enough weight to describe the extinction debt for all of kingdom Animalia. It must be gargantuan.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
« on: August 26, 2020, 12:18:04 PM »
Quote from: jplotinus on August 26, 2020, 12:00:24 PM
As of 24 August, extent has moved down into the 3.75-4.25 range.
August 24th, 2020:
     4,236,622 km2

Ergo, nobody is out of the running yet. Hypothetically speaking of course.

32
Permafrost / Re: 2020-2021 winter snow northern hemisphere
« on: August 25, 2020, 06:29:50 AM »
Can naming conventions stay the same year to year. Please. It makes things so much easier.

Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs

to

Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs

33
The forum / Re: Reading the Forum on a Computer or a Phone?
« on: August 17, 2020, 03:48:24 PM »
Where are the overlapping options? Computer and phone because I’m addicted to ice

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 15, 2020, 07:30:05 AM »
Anybody else looking at the beaufort tail thinking it will eventually be completely severed from the rest of the pack?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:25:08 PM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from August 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From August 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement of -108,100 (-111,187 as of Aug 2) km2 is the 4th lowest value, of which 2018 is the leader. (See attachment 2).
These numbers will vary depending on the date of 2020s minimum, with extra days decreasing this average.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:17:19 PM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation --- Sorry for the delays and missed posts. Sometimes life gets in the way of ice. Numbers updated through August 2nd instead of July 31st.

As of August 2nd, extent is 5,669,846 km2. With on average 42 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -111,187 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss so far this season is -8,777,795 km2. This has resulted in the current season average daily drop of -57,749 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 4th fastest average daily loss from maximum to July 31st (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2). ~numbers slightly off here in order to work with the late posting.

Total extent loss from maximum to July 31st is highest on record in the post-2007 era.. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of July, 2020 lost -3,162,434 km2, averaging -102,014 km2 per day. This is the largest loss since in the post-2007 era. (See Attachment 4).

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:49:59 AM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

It clutters the thread, it doesn't look as nice or neat.

I say this gently, it is most typically new posters who do this. When I was new I was afraid to contribute to the main melting season threads. Still am for the most part. Read. Learn. Find a new way to look at data and then post here. Don't try to horn in by being 14 minutes earlier than JCG.

38
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: July 08, 2020, 06:51:22 AM »
Quote from: bbr2315 on July 08, 2020, 01:07:29 AM
With all the red herrings you are creating we may no longer have to worry about plunging global fish stocks.

What a gem from the 2020 melt season thread. Made me laugh out loud.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 10:29:25 AM »
I don't care if the hot blob in the Laptev is from the Lena. You cannot ignore this hot water. 10.3 degC.
2+ degrees hotter in 6 days. Enjoying the high pressure and soaking up the sun.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2020, 10:21:20 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from June 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From July 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement of -105,584 km2 is the 8th lowest value, of which 2010 is the leader. (See attachment 2).


As an aside, for those holding out hope for a BOE to occur, we must melt ~143% of 2012 every day until the minimum.
For the few votes in the 2-2.5 million km2 JAXA daily poll we must average between -92,251 and -85,584 km2 or ~125% to 116% more daily melt than 2012.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2020, 10:13:43 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

As of June 30th, extent is 8,918,818 km2. With on average 75 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -105,584 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss so far this season is -5,528,823 km2. This has resulted in the current season average daily drop of -46,461 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th fastest average daily loss from maximum to June 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Total extent loss from maximum is 3rd highest on record since 2007 --- 2010 and 2012 had monster Junes. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of June, 2020 lost -1,915,658 km2, averaging -63,855 km2 per day. This is the 8th largest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2020, 06:35:42 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

June 15th extent was 10,029,135 km2. With on average 90 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -100,324 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Just as an aside: From June 1st to its' respective minimum, 2012 dropped on average -76,535 km2. From July 1st to the minimum, 2012 dropped on average -73,894 km2. To anybody holding out hope for a BOE we need to be dropping ~33% more per day than the record year.

Total extent loss thus far in June 2020 was -805,341 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -4,418,506 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -42,486 km2. If the month of June ended today, this would be the 6th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).

Looking only at the month of June thus far, we have averaged -53,689 km2 per day. If the month of June ended today, this average daily drop places June 2020 as 11th out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily June melt, ahead of only 2015, 2016, and 2018. (See Attachment 3).


There is so much heat coming into the Russian side of the arctic. I'll be shocked if the 2nd half of June doesn't do something spectacular.

43
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 02, 2020, 12:01:47 PM »
Social justice is impossible while "free market" capitalism exists.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2020, 02:50:43 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from June 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From June 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 6th lowest value, of which 2016 is the leader. (See attachment 2).

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 16, 2020, 11:06:21 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

May 15th extent was 11,637,165 km2. With on average 121 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -87,910 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss thus far in May 2020 was -989,855 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -2,810,476 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -38,500 km2. If the month of May ended today, this would be the 12th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).
Additional note: The average melt from maximum to May 31st (2007-2019) is ~3.1 mil km2, we are some 290,000 km2 away with 16 days in May to go.

Looking only at the month of May thus far, we have averaged -65,990 km2 per day. If the month of May ended today, this average daily drop places May 2020 as 2nd out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily May melt, behind only 2010. (See Attachment 3).

What do the ASIF gods see in the melt season thread? Preconditioning. Albedo loss. Anomalous heat. High pressure ridging. Impending/continued snow loss over Eurasia.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2020, 03:19:15 AM »
Quote from: Stephan on May 01, 2020, 10:23:37 AM
Ktb,
thank you for that update - really appreciated that.
Has there ever been a green "TRUE" in your column "Are we on track?" since you started your evaluation?

In short, no. But previously if I play with the data I can get it to say TRUE at the start of every month if the first of the month has a high enough loss.

The way my spreadsheet is set up **this year compared to last years** we would need to drop -2.3 million km2 to get back on track and see a TRUE in that column.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2020, 09:36:29 AM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 7th highest value, of which 2018 is the leader. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, 8 days after our expected end of the season. (See attachment 2).

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation. -- Sorry for missing the mid-month update, personal issues. By the time I was ready to post I figured I should just wait until the end of April anyway.

As of April 30th, extent is 12,627,020 km2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -85,493 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Additional fun fact! In the month of April we had zero days where losses outstripped their daily BOE requirement. We had 4 of those days in April 2019.

Total extent loss so far this season is -1,820,621 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -31,390 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th highest average daily loss from maximum to April 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of April, 2020 lost -972,854 km2, nearly 100,000 km2 less than the 2007-2019 average. This is the 5th smallest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).

49
The rest / Re: Denialism News
« on: April 19, 2020, 03:35:27 PM »
Dr. Siegfried Fred Singer, noted climate denier has passed away at the age of 95. 

Quote
Singer was one of the "merchants of doubt" identified by NCSE board member Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway in their Merchants of Doubt (2010): a handful of scientists who "joined forces with think tanks and private corporations to challenge scientific evidence on a host of contemporary issues" including tobacco, the Strategic Defense Initiative, acid rain, ozone depletion, and, of course, climate change.

https://ncse.ngo/s-fred-singer-physicist-and-influential-climate-change-denier-dies-95


Human taboo generally frowns upon talking ill of the dead, that being said, good riddance.

50
The rest / Denialism News
« on: April 19, 2020, 03:34:45 PM »
For noteworthy news of prominent climate change deniers, skeptics, and others. Additionally for updates on the strategies they employ and tactics they use.

I force myself to stay up to date on the latest anti-science rhetoric that is used regularly to prepare for my dad to inevitably bring up. I like to be ready to combat the bullshit.

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