Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Dharma Rupa

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 19, 2019, 05:07:20 PM »
I am not trying to discredit PIOMAS, but it's important to understand it's limitations and I'm not there yet.

PIOMAS is known to be:

1.  Not very accurate,

and

2.  Better than anything else we've got.

2
The 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread would be a whole lot better if the meaningless chatter was here instead of there.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?
« on: June 07, 2019, 01:10:09 PM »
Do we give too much importance to ASI extent and we should focus more on ASI volume?

Find me daily volume numbers to drool over and I'll stop salivating over extent.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Do we make too much of 2012 ?
« on: June 06, 2019, 12:54:48 PM »
Since we're much too late to do anything about it anyway we are free to pick whatever markers we choose, and 2012 was an interesting year.  What the uneducated think simply doesn't matter.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 03, 2019, 04:33:52 PM »
IIRC, AGW can wipe out the arctic and subarctic climate zones, making the poles temperate in wind circulation. Is this correct?
Could AGW create a new equatorial climate zone, a "supertropical" one to coin a term?

There are three cells, Hadley, Ferrel, and Polar.  It is my understanding that having 2 cells is unstable. and therefore if the Polar cell collapses you will end up with just one cell running from the equator to the pole.  (I don't remember where I heard that two cells is unstable or why this would be true.)

Some of us think we are witnessing the collapse of the Polar cell now.

6
I just engaged in a simple act of protest against privilege and every single person who weighed in on the discussion defended that privilege.

It isn't privilege.  It's an earned right.  You post actual data every day for a few years and I'll gladly put down the next noobie that comes along messing up the thread.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 01:43:30 PM »
If the public never "gets it", it's precisely because people acting like you.

This discussion belongs elsewhere.  May I suggest "Stupid Questions"?

I, for one, have no interest in helping the public get it.  I'm here to watch the ice melt.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 22, 2019, 04:47:40 PM »
Of course, the important date is not first BOE, but when it becomes inevitable. That is almost certainly past.

I'm of the belief that date passed over 100 years ago.  This belief does not make me popular.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: May 06, 2019, 01:14:13 PM »
Is it possible with this forum software to set a thread moderated with only certain people allowed to normally post there?  I can think of one thread that would be a whole lot better if only two people were allowed to post there.  (Maybe if those two people were the moderators?)

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2019, 12:18:21 PM »
Perhaps the AI is so advanced the computers have now demanded equal holiday rights?

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?  (Otherwise known as Bladerunner)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: April 24, 2019, 01:44:13 PM »
Geoengineering is not BS.

I'd have to disagree for the simple reason that we are not smart enough to figure out all the potential consequences.  Any sort of proposed geoengineering is too dangerous to be anything other than BS.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:02:27 PM »
It's been long enough now that I think we can safely say something happened in 2015.  I've been saying near the end of December, but from the looks of this it was more like the middle of the year. (Graph from https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice)

My stupid question for the day is this:  What happened in 2015?

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 04, 2019, 01:17:38 PM »
In my own private corner of the Metaverse the spheres start as small circles when you first see them and then grow into large circles which are clearly projections of spheres as you get close enough to really see them.  So I think you have to have at least 4 spatial dimensions.

About ice???  Well, it seems to me our problem is that to properly represent Arctic Ice you need 12 or so dimensions in an Information Space.

(I reluctantly voted for 3, lacking higher available choices.)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2018, 10:04:42 PM »
It is funny how all the random old people here don't like model output...

I don't like any model output over five (used to be three) days from present period.  Whether weather or climate.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November)
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:36:59 PM »
Yes warning re not https and looks same.

Google, and I guess others, is getting really cranky about unsecured web connections.  In the long run this is good, but in the short run, it is a pain. If you know the site is safe do the advanced thing and go there.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:50 AM »
Third, at least informally, recognizing that at the end that land fast ice might remain artificially delaying the first 100% ice free time, we all (or at least nearly all) informally agreed to a definition of essentially ice free at 1 million square kilometers or less. This pulls back the estimated first essentially ice free Arctic September by another 2-5 years from the projected estimate.

Some of us prefer saying that the Arctic is essentially ice-free when the DMI 80 N in Summer is no longer pinned near zero.  That is, the Arctic is ice-free when there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 02:19:05 AM »
2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

You can point to the date in late December 2015 when the Arctic Climate changed...at least to within a day or two.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 02:51:06 PM »
So I do not buy the WACCy theory, because I see the exact opposites: the warmer the arctic, the warmer the continents

The continents are only cold in comparison, not colder.  They are not warming as fast as the Arctic Ocean.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 02:58:17 PM »
The big question is of course: are we transitioning to a new climate mode (huge low pressure zones and storms above the Arctic, sucking in warm air from the midlatitudes, keeping the Arctic fairly warm, not letting the ice freeze, which keeps the stormy weather alive/low pressure systems in a feedback loop)?

Are you suggesting that the southern wall of the Arctic Polar Cell is breaking down?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 09, 2018, 10:38:14 PM »
That would place both 2017 and 2018 below 2007 and 2012. Looks like something is acting like a break in summer, and it's gone after summer.

Or perhaps the break in Summer is the same as the gas in Winter -- water vapor.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2018, 10:36:43 PM »
Open water reached well beyond 80 degrees North along the Atlantic Front, and therefore high temperature anomalies North of 80 are likely to slow refreezing. But for most of the Arctic temperatures North of 80 are irrelevant.

I'll bite my tongue for now but I find the combination of DMI 80N and CAB extent very interesting.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2018, 08:01:48 PM »
Although it's not really hard to imagine the pack being 25% smaller as it was in 2012 (Ironically the same year sighted by the Mayans as the year of our awakening...), I think what BOE people fail to see is how hard it is for 'central ice' well away from the warmer coasts to get melted away.  ESS took a lot of blow torches right off the coast and look how long it took to disappear... I'm not at all saying I don't agree with the downward trend but that--to me--hides the remaining ice being well away from the warmer lands.  If you compare the current cap to the 80-2000's average, it really is like an open ocean Anyway... and seeing these extreme weather events already it is very dangerous to think we need to wait for a blue ocean before SHTF!  We talked most of '18's spring of how Bearing remained open and we see every year how Laptev also seems to have an open crack so given this year's record melting in Laptev (the heart of most Clathrate studies if I'm not mistaken) I'm going to hazard a guess that this one area will be the next harbinger of things to come!  The graphs are so off with recent dips in ESS etc. that one has to wonder if and when the warmth just gets enough of a foot hold to just up and collapse it!

The land is only warmer in Summer.  The oceans have the advantage of being more of a battery.

No idea when that will be the overriding fact, but it will be the overriding fact.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: August 31, 2018, 11:41:20 PM »
I will start expecting it imminently when the winter max volume drops under 20,000KM3.  When we hit that threshold, I think we will have a 1 in 10 chance that year of a BOE with relatively normal melt.  When the max drops below 19,000KM3, I think it will rise to a 1 in 4 chance.  At 18,000KM3 I think it will be 1 in 2.

Since I am expecting warm Winters and cold Summers I am unable to fully evaluate what you are saying here.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 11:09:18 PM »
The DMI 80N shows that the polar melt season has gone into overtime. And it isn't solar radiation doing it because the sun angle is too low. It's warm, humid, cloudy air advecting from the open water where the Arctic ocean is "Atlantifying".

Let's not rush things, even if you are right.  At the moment we are watching to see if the pattern of the last two winters will continue.

There certainly those of us on the WACCy equable climate side who have expectations, but it isn't there yet.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 05:39:35 PM »
Judging by the N80 graph and the day to night ratio of the Arctic at this time of the year this thought occurs to me.  Around this time clouds start the transition from negative feedback to positive feedback.

Yup.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 10, 2018, 06:40:03 PM »
The big question is: is the current "atlantification" N of Svalbard simply weather related or will it be a permanent feature from now on? I do not know the answer...

Isn't this and related questions why we are here every day?

I think it's going to be a permanent feature.  Now I have to wait and see.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 09, 2018, 02:02:01 PM »
Melting doesn't raise volume much because of displacement, but any water temperature above 4 degrees makes a difference.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 09, 2018, 01:55:34 PM »
Direct GW effect of doubling of CO2 without other effects like water vapour increase, snow reductions changing albedo (also cloud effects and lapse rate) is relatively easy to calculate and is around 1C per doubling. With these other feedback consequences it is much less certain but probably around 3C +/- 1.5C.

Which is why CO2 is the trigger and H2O is the bullet.

29
Gerontocrat
I really like your message. It is spot om.

Palaeontology is not the answer.
Paleontology and the models reinforce one another. Both together in context are more skillful than either alone.

The models all want continuous change, the evidence is that change has been discontinuous.  Until you offer a model that both seems to handle Historical data and the sudden changes which seem to have happened I am disinterested in them -- and I only really ask that they have some demonstrated skill (which they do not).   But absent predictions of sudden changes, I think the models can be completely ignored.

30
Climate deniers don't like what the models say so run exactly the same argument.  Seems you don't like what the models are saying and so are running exactly the same argument.  This is a science based forum and not Watts Up with That.  The models are certainly imperfect, but whats a better method for predicting the future?

Paleontology.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 08:16:14 PM »
Discussions of ice free arctic in winter is something for the paleoclimate studies of the Paleocene-Eocene equable climate......
What say you, about ice free Arctic in September.....August.... July, October, June, May, April, November? Or are those discussions for.... futurologists, yet unborn?

They are discussions for other threads unless you would like to discuss the likelihood of ice free conditions extending into the fall for this season.

Hehe....I am not discounting that as a possibility, but no one else seems to entertain that as conceivable.

And no, I am not predicting it...just saying that when the ice decides to go away it won't matter if it is daytime or nighttime.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 03, 2018, 07:31:26 PM »
I wouldn't be surprised to see a BOE in the next year or two, only to not see another for five years, then get them two years running, etc.

I'll pay attention to DMI 80N rather than extent, but once there is not enough ice to pin the temperature close to 0 in the Summer there won't be enough cold to keep the ocean from overturning and losing its protective fresh halocline layer.  When there isn't enough ice to keep it cold in Summer it won't really get cold in Winter.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 01, 2018, 12:37:33 AM »
A scenario of year-round ice-free Arctic can only be reached (IMO) by further a northward reach of the warm ocean currents.
I keep reading this dreamy misconception everywhere. People seem to be forgetting about the fact that the quantity of heat energy required to melt 1kg of ice (of just below freezing) to 1kg of water (of just above freezing) would raise the temperature of that same 1 kg of water to 80 degrees Celsius. This means that as soon as ice is gone, and there is heat energy (i.e. Sunlight), the oceans will be very hot at the surface (provided that surface T will also keep on rising as it does) all around the Arctic circle. It already is super anomalously warm, by the way. So when the sun is gone at the polar caps, all it needs is a little flow from warmer lower ocean currents to keep it from freezing up, and/or surface winds blowing the warmer (sun-heated) waters Northwards. Considering all the additional feedbacks, I'd say year round ice free poles could be a reality around 2035 at the very latest.

Don't know when, though I suspect soon, but with the first Summer the DMI 80N isn't pinned to nearly 0c the ice will not return for at least millennia.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 22, 2018, 12:31:10 AM »
More melting ice leads to higher temps (due to less sunlight reflection) and more water vapor, which = better chance for clouds to form. So for example.....if the Arctic goes ice free free, and there comes a point when the ice doesn’t come back, that leads to less ice melting and the arctic abruptly transitions to a new state. So what if the cloudy summers we are seeing is just a last cry for the arctic before it transitions to a new state. This is just a theory and I’m sure I’m wrong in some of what I said, but it makes sense to me.

I don't know if it is the last cry or not, but I fully agree that when the transition happens it will be permanent (at least as far as we are concerned).  The ice will run out, the freshwater cap will mix, and it will be the end of the old Arctic.  No idea when it will happen, but I don't see where September will matter.


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 20, 2018, 06:08:21 PM »
Pluto it is not - no demotion on the horizon. It has been, is, and will be an ocean, until it is ice-free for at least most of the year. Then perhaps someone will say - it is now totally Atlantified (horrible word) - so is part of the Atlantic Ocean.

Atlantisized?

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 11, 2018, 02:55:03 AM »
Something I may start posting over the next few weeks, as I think it may be pretty key - accumulated precipitation.

I think accumulated absolute humidity might be a better total measure, but precipitation sounds easier to deal with.

CO2 is the trigger.  H2O is the bullet.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Will we see it before it happens?
« on: July 09, 2018, 09:19:04 PM »
First of all, NO.  We will only know after the fact.

I am more inclined to use the measure that the DMI 80N cannot keep the Summer temperature pinned near 0; which is in some conflict with...

I see no reason why the melt out will happen in Summer.  It will happen when the combination of Atlantic Water and loss of Fresh Water dictates; which could be any time of year.  Summer Sun is a minor perturbation to the whole; which might slightly favor melt-out during Summer.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2018, 06:11:05 PM »
Looking ahead ... as Stephan says, it seems unlikely that the ssslllooowww extent decreases will continue.  Something's gotta change there.  I'm surprised it's lasted this long, actually.  Not many years have such a radical change in compactness during the melt season.

Not clear to me anything will change during the summer, but it wouldn't surprise me too much if Winter took a vacation.

I'll be looking very carefully at how quickly the seas fill with ice come Fall.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 20, 2018, 09:53:22 PM »
The temperature of the central arctic ocean in summer is pegged to the melting point, as long as ice is still there. Moreover, when the ice is covered with snow, the air is pegged to 0oC, but when the snow is gone and the ice is in partial melt the air is pegged to -1.8oC. So your "cooler summer temps" are nothing but a mirage signalling the deterioration of the arctic.

BTW -- my preferred definition of an ice free Arctic is when the DMI 80N is no longer pegged near 0 in Summer.  When there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold then it is effectively ice free.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 17, 2018, 02:31:05 AM »
And I think one of those inflection points was 2012. 

I am rather unclear on 2012....there is a difference between the point of inflection and the point where the system has to fall away from the potential surface in order to reorganize.

It is, however, clear to me that in late December 2015 the Arctic climate became disconnected from its prior meta-stable state.

It could very well be true that the inflection was reached sometime in 2012 and it took 3 years to start into freefall.

[ed: Note: I am assuming a continuous potential surface.  There is no real known reason to assume that, but it has seemed to work in the past.]
You may be right about 2015. 

My assumption was based around the disappearance of MYI it represented.  But then, both 2011 and 2010 were very hard on MYI as well. 

Perhaps we should look at it as a range instead - 2010-2015 - where the catastrophe took place, and the system tumbled into a new state sufficiently disconnected from the previous regime that we can't recover to it without serious changes elsewhere in the system.

I can buy into that.  The loss of MYI leads to the open water, leads to higher humidity -- leads to warmer winters, but not much warmer summers.  Basically, everything you would expect in a warming climate.  In that viewpoint the state of the ice is sort of a side-show.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 17, 2018, 12:01:29 AM »
And I think one of those inflection points was 2012. 

I am rather unclear on 2012....there is a difference between the point of inflection and the point where the system has to fall away from the potential surface in order to reorganize.

It is, however, clear to me that in late December 2015 the Arctic climate became disconnected from its prior meta-stable state.

It could very well be true that the inflection was reached sometime in 2012 and it took 3 years to start into freefall.

[ed: Note: I am assuming a continuous potential surface.  There is no real known reason to assume that, but it has seemed to work in the past.]

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 16, 2018, 06:37:14 PM »
Do we throw out all evidence because they are all over the place wrt level and trend? Or, do we say yes not much good for level or trend, but it looks like they all agree on trend in slope as zero ice is approached? So don't use them where they are bad but do use them for what they are good at, ie suggesting the change in trend as zero ice is approached declines.

I'm trying to remember the correct name for this fallacy, but it is basically a combination of following the herd and appeal to authority.

Is there any evidence of skill in any of these projections?  If you could show that any of them have in the past been skillful in projecting a decrease in the slope as the ice approaches zero, but since that is impossible to demonstrate...



43
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 16, 2018, 02:49:57 AM »
If the models show a slowdown in the rate of decline as zero ice is approached and also the data is tending to show this recently, then assuming the rate will be steady or increase needs some substantial explanation. Without such substantial explanation, the default assumption should be of a declining rate of decline.

Given the currently demonstrated skill of the global models, the default assumption ought to be "we don't know."

Any other assumption is pure hubris.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: June 14, 2018, 06:43:27 PM »
The real answer is that we don't have a clue.

None of the models has been around long enough to have a valid skill metric assigned to them, and all the models have been way off in one way or another.  The "science" of Arctic Sea Ice is more like Alchemy than Chemistry.  We do not have an equivalent to the periodic table.  Everything that is said is based upon guesses about what is and has been going on.

(This is not to disparage the good work being done.  It is intended to reject the useless expectations people have about that work.)


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 02:10:42 PM »
A request:... "positive" for any feedback which amplifies the base process, and "negative" for any feedback which slows down the base process....

Yes please.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 30, 2018, 02:15:50 PM »
This will put the Laptev opening into some context, though it would be nice to have a few more years:

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 26, 2018, 03:06:34 AM »
Can someone please remind we why we keep copying over that stupid 80ºN line graph? Look at Zack's treatment below

Because that picture is too hard to understand.  the DMI 80N is clear and simple and easy to follow year to year.

Pages: [1]