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Messages - Nightvid Cole

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 11:56:06 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.

"Top surface melt" season has reached its peak for sure, but "bottom melt" season is only just beginning and often chews through a lot of ice in late July and in August. With such open water between the ice floes in the past 2 weeks or so, a lot of solar energy has been soaked up by the upper ocean layer, so everything is in place for an intense "bottom melt season" in the Beaufort...

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 05:02:08 PM »
I'm afraid a July cooldown is too late to save the ice. Apparently the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Arctic in June is almost a decisive determination of the final September extent (r = 0.91).  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025819

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I say 2.5 - 3.0 million km^2, I think we will beat 2012 because June was so exceptionally hot in the Siberian/Pacific sector and concentration is already dropping precipitously there. (previous hottest Junes were 2007 and 2012 in that region).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=Air+Temperature&level=2000&lat1=90&lat2=68&lon1=90&lon2=225&iseas=1&mon1=5&mon2=5&iarea=1&typeout=2&Submit=Create+Timeseries


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