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Messages - colchonero

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 23, 2019, 03:34:24 PM »
It is going to get really really cold in Alaska. GFS has it at  20-30c below average on Climate Reanalyzer. :o

 This is the first time in years in winter, I see most CAB in "solid blue" in mid range forecast, for an extended period of time. I don't know though will it hold or not, but it is certainly nice to see, at least.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 12:37:10 AM »
Well it's funny when bbr of all the prople, starts talking (read attacking) about somebody else's false predictions, which are according to his words not just honest mistakes (btw nothing the guy said at that point looked like trash that doesn't make any sense, CAB numbers weren't weak, but July was hot and we are still practically tied with 2016.) but trolling. Man you are literally famous for that on this forum, with much more ridiculous "predictions". Every time you see something you "like", you post these 10 day forecasts of every single run that helps your "case".

It's not a denialist mistake to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes with their predictions. It's just a mistake. What do we call people who voted for BOE option THIS YEAR, during this melting season. Or do you think that was more realistic than weatherdude's prediction. They were just wronglike him. That is it. No conspiracies or hidden meanings behind every false prediction. Some are more realistic, some are less.

Please guys stop attacking and bullying people every time there is somebody who has different prediction, compared to yours, even if they are wrong.  Cause you also are wrong a lot., like many people here, including me. Nobody could have predicted such a strong HP during the first half of the summer, especially after last few years (there was a talk last year or 2017 I remember very well, that because of the warming, cloudy cool summers are a new norm). And after all of that, nobody could have predicted such a slow August melt. It was proven dozens of times to all of us that Arctic is almost impossible to predict and full of surprises.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 12:41:40 PM »
"They're always from yesterday obviously and we are aware of it thanks".

No, that's not what I meant. That same data was POSTED yesterday. The data is for August 25th. So please check next time what somebody wanted to say, before trying to put someone down.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 12:21:20 PM »
That is data from yesterday.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2019, 10:37:25 PM »
A bit off topic, and I may sound like bbr, but I need to ask. Has anyone seen new EC run for the USA. What a run!!  There is a -28C negative anomaly, and -28C temp 850hPa, as far south as Huntsville AL. For people in Europe reading this, that's much further south than Athens or Gibraltar (38vs36vs34 latitude degrees).  And I'm confident by looking at how large the sub -28C field is, there is even colder air in the middle of it (Minnesota for example), but EC "range" (on meteociel at least) stretches only to -28C.

GFS 12z has greater than -20C anomaly over Hudson in the middle of Winter, and -40C temp850hPa on US-Canada border.

I'm sorry for many photos and a long post, but this really may be 1 in a decade night ( both models have some ridiculous numbers at the same time, especially EC because it's so far south)

I'm posting now, because obviously I don't think it will come true.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 18, 2018, 11:52:18 PM »
It's not being angry, it's about making important parts more visible, like when you write LATE for example. I can do that either by making it bold, or by using capital letters. But I'll make it bold in the future, so there isn't misunderstanding.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 18, 2018, 11:40:00 PM »
The "strong refreeze" narrative is a bunch of nonsense. There is more heat than ever in the high-latitude oceans (Bering and Barents). The refreeze has been led by the situation in Baffin, CAA, and Hudson Bay, and the early refreeze of these regions for reasons that portend a very LATE refreeze in the high Arctic are exactly why this trope is ridiculous. 2018 has seen a quick refreeze of certain peripheral regions due to conditions resulting from the worst-ever anomalies further to the north and this pattern will continue through winter, while numbers may even be higher than 2017 through May, I expect the bottom to fall out by the end of May or June again (mimicking closely what happened in spring 2015).

I know many here have tried to explain to you and it didn't work, but as of this morning there is NO SIGNIFICANT EARLY REFREEZE of Hudson Bay. Look at UH data (at least I think it's UH) that has been posted several times. First significant area uptick (20k+) when you look at NSIDC 5-day average that gerontocrat is posting, was today.  If you keep saying something is happening, that won't make it true. It might happen in the next couple of days (strong gains) but as of now it DIDN'T, despite your constant writing.

Because of that, even some of your points that are valid people won't take seriously, instead they'll think you are spreading misinformation again.

The rest / Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« on: October 27, 2018, 10:37:03 PM »
Ah, some Bannon's friend (Bannon was and possibly still is Trump's friend, u know it's all a show) has shot 8 people in a Synagogue. Wouldn't be surprised if they found out he's a republican.

No comment on this one really. >:( :( :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2018, 02:46:44 AM »
I don't really get cci gfs 2m anomalies. It doesn't seem to match EC and GFS models on meteociel at all. Yeah sure there are some positive Temp 850hPa anomalies on meteociel as well, but nothing dramatic, and there are even some negative fields on the map.

But why should 2m anomalies match anomalies at 850 hPa level (which is approximately at an altitude of 1500m) ? Anomalies can be completely different for example when large anticyclones are at play and a strong inversion sets up at surface level.

With inversions you can have below normal 2m anomalies and above at 1500m the air can be well above normal.

In this case, they should. There is no strong wind, no additional moisture,  no inversion, not much precipitation, not much sunlight to warm lower altitudes so dramatically, no tight Isobars,  no big cyclones, no huge waves. Nothing that extraordinary, EXCEPT NO ICE.  Temperature will stay at or above 0C over open water, even if temp 850hPa drops to -20C, as long as there is no ice coverage.

Edit: In meteorology, there is always a reason, a cause, something is happening, and there is a consequence what will happen shortly after because of the things happening right now. Because of that we can make  forecasts for example for tomorrow. When something changes tomorrow you adjust your forecast for the upcoming days. You can't just say "oh they've decided not to match, just like that, for no reason"
I mean of course they don't have match exactly, but this is 15C+ difference over not insignificant period of time. And there is no event models are currently showing, that would cause that, except there is no ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2018, 03:40:34 PM »
I mean if that is the case, on the one hand, it is good news, cause lot of stored heat should go away under this "cold spell", but on the other hand it is really bad news, cause if the area would have been already ice covered it  could have used these weather conditions to thicken a little bit, cause we know how unstable polar vortex is lately, and it is only a matter of time before there is another "attack" from the south. But now even if the ice forms there at the end of this period(7-10days), and that is a big IF, it will be very thin, and very vulnerable if there is another warm air advection from lower latitudes end of Oct or even beginning of Nov.

The rest / Re: The Dems blow the election again
« on: May 24, 2018, 04:22:34 PM »
Neven are you TYT fan? Not trying to disrespect or whatever, I'm just curious cause they have similar talking points as far as I know.

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