Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - SimonF92

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:44:32 AM »
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
ArcticMelt2 this is a great resource for looking at relationships

https://ecm.um.maine.edu/reanalysis/monthly_correl/index.php

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2019, 01:12:10 PM »
Heres an mp4 of that temperature change.

Its limited to 10fps for those with low bandwidth

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2019, 02:02:46 PM »
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.

Seconded on that, your figures are always appreciated Aluminium

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2019, 06:47:35 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 


Most regrettable you feel like that, I always welcome being able to read contributions that foster my own understanding and I have always felt that this forum has a brilliant tolerance to those less knowledgeable.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:59:05 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

A valid hypothesis!

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2019, 11:46:57 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: September 16, 2019, 10:41:32 PM »
Picked this up today, cover- cover on the Arctic

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:36:07 PM »
Just take a look at the poll-results year on year and you will see that weatherdude88 is not alone in his inaccuracy of prediction AND that the data is invariably weighted toward lower-than-actual prediction (though i suspect this year may buck that trend).

That being said he did take a risk coming out with what he did.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 09:09:30 PM »
Nah, what's that face Simon? Being corrected on something doesn't vindicate such a face. It's all good mate. :)

And thanks a lot for the 'veteran' compliment. Very kind of you. :D

Haha im only kidding Blumenkraft, my PhD basically consists of me being corrected by those more experienced and informed than me- I take each correction as a chance to learn!

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:55:50 PM »
Nowadays sheets are small, fractured and thin and  i think that much of the bottom of such "new kind of ice-sheets" is exposed to almost surface water quality. Not very saline, stirred up permanently and venting it's energy/heat through the many leads and areas of open water.

Therefore I suggest to consider that bottom melt could be over-rated nowadays, simply due to old habits/behaviors that are not fully applicable anymore over large areas of the remaining late season ice.
I think you're getting it wrong. The ice fractured because bottom melt has eaten all the way through the ice, which causes the ice to weaken and break up. So I don't think bottom melt is over-rated.

The ice fractures when its too thin to withstand kinetic forces acting on it. The ice is thinned by both bottom and top melt. All melts are equal (though some are more equal than others)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:13:59 AM »
Marcel you are correct, it was 2015 we watched "Big Block" spin its way to oblivion in the Beaufort. Since then I have seen nothing even similar to how robust that ice was.

We are probably unlikely to again in our lifetimes.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 05:32:27 PM »
HYCOM Ice Thickness August 22 - August 29



I feel like HYCOM must have changed their scale or something because that literally looks like the end of ASI as we know it.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 10, 2019, 01:03:52 PM »
2012 has the advantage peripherally, 2019 has the advantage toward the core

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 09, 2019, 11:06:28 AM »
Killian, if you feel so strongly about it and so readily rebut other's opinions  (which is fair enough), why not collate your data and submit it as a paper? Cryology is clearly lacking a cohesive and strong argument either way- why not contribute?

Submit it for a peer review and see what comes back.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:24:12 PM »
Haven't been coming on here almost daily for the last 5 years to read arguments, yet arguments seem to almost be an inherent part of the forum

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 28, 2019, 03:52:23 PM »
Its colder in Texas than on the North Slope today. In February. This will be preconditioning for melt-vulnerability.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 24, 2018, 04:37:14 PM »
AMSR2 regional data anomalies for today's date
(2018- 2012->2018 mean)

I couldn't figure out a good way to normalise this to area-of-the-sea-of-interest so there is a bias in the size of the bars to some extent.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 06, 2018, 03:52:38 PM »
Arguing as passionate scientists/researchers/hobbyists is healthy so long as it is respectful.

I for one found this paper informative; I think people are at odds because they are speaking largely in cross-purposes;

One can "split" and the other cannot;

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00212.1

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2018, 11:55:03 AM »
Looks like extent gains are finally beginning to get going in the CAB

Oct 13th - Oct 11th

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 08, 2018, 11:19:27 AM »
While the ESS is under attack, there is a persistent spinal structure in the center that seems to withstand thawing or dispersion for quite a couple of days now.

I thought I recognised that. Same date in 2015, though appearing somewhat more robust 3 years ago.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 10:30:39 AM »
June 22-26.

Interesting how well the Beaufort is holding up this year, considering there has been virtually no buffer-ice in the Bering or Chukchi.

As far as I have seen, there haven't been cold anomalies or any other obvious reasons to explain it. Same goes for the Kara.

Pages: [1]