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Messages - harpy

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Consequences / Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: October 09, 2019, 09:31:40 PM »
There's a number of published papers demonstrating that the removal of the aerosol masking effect, AKA global dimming, will result in a rapid increase in global average temperature.  Above our current level, within a short period of time (weeks to months).

Depending on the reference, the figures apparently range from approximately 1C-3C of global average temperature rise is being "masked" by aerosol particulates in the atmosphere. 

Below are a number of peer-reviewed articles, and essays that focus exclusively on this subject, and propose varying numbers for the aerosol masking effect.

Hansen's 2011 Paper entitled, Earth's energy imbalance and implications informs us of a 1C global average temperature is not being fully realized due to the aerosol masking effect.

References:

Earth's energy imbalance and implications  https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha06510a.html

Cooling from atmospheric particles may mask greater warming  https://www.sustainability-times.com/environmental-protection/research-cooling-from-atmospheric-particles-may-mask-greater-warming/

The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change
 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50192

Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds
 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566

The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview  The Aerosol Masking Effect: A Brief Overview


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 04:31:57 PM »
What's the official minimum then?

Currently, according to JAXA data, it is 4,158,349 km^2. Achieved on September 4th.

The extent data is misleading, at best.  The rank matters little - what matters is the sea ice thickness and the condition of the ice in general.

Unfortunately, the sea ice extent graphs are given the most attention rather than sea ice thickness and fragmentation (and sea surface temperature).

The sea ice extent is a dubious measurement, as highly fragmented slush should not be considered "extent", but it does seem to get included.  Therefore, the "extent" of the low quality single year ice of 2019 is compared against the "extent" of the multi year ice of, say 1995 - which is incorrect - it's comparing apples to oranges.

We need to be focusing on the multi year ice, sea ice thickness  - not the "extent" data.

On that note, how's that multi-year ice doing in 2019?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2018, 01:31:29 AM »
Record low:

Unlikely to impossible on July 17th.

Real possibility.  July 28th.




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