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Messages - El Cid

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 15, 2021, 08:23:02 AM »
This thing will be mostly over by the end of May. 20-30% of the American/European population will have been infected by then and at least 20% will get the vaccine (even in Europe where there is a scarcity of vaccines). Since COVID is highly seasonal, summertime R is definitely lower than wintertime R. Last summer R was 1,2-1,5 in Europe with basically not effort, no masks, nothing. This means that even vaccinating 20% (plus 20-30% who got it before) will be enough to push it back into the shadows (because R will be lower than 1, even with the mutant version).
Then, during summer and autumn you will have to vaccinate the rest of the population which will happen.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 14, 2021, 08:25:11 AM »
Jesus, harpy, just give it up now...you are plain wrong about most of the things you wrote about the virus the past few weeks/months

Neither fearmongering nor belittling the virus is a good soultion. This is a science site, let's try to stick to the facts. Steve is definitely right.

3
I have always been curious about this chart, specifically the spike that occurred in the 1940's and the drop following it.

Industrial production spiked during WWII and a decade long worldwide recession followed it. Wouldn't CO2 emissions track with this? The steep climb in temperatures beginning around 1970 coincides with the rapid industrialization of much of the third world. Does this trend suggest that temperatures are much more sensitive to current CO2 emissions?

Interesting study about the early 20th century warming and its causes:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6033150/

Basically we do not know what caused it, and climate models do not replicate it.

My conclusion has long been that our models are still very very bad, they can not replicate even quite well documented changes in climate (eg. green sahara, Holocene optimum precipitation and temperature, early 20th c. warming, etc.)

I do not trust them a bit. Climate is much more complex than we currently figure

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 10, 2021, 04:27:22 PM »
. However, I drew attention to the Russian nuclear submariners and navy GCMs which I cited last summer who expect major mid-winter recirculation this year from around December 2021  that moves the typical storm tracks north of the British Isles to the latitude of Gibraltar with Pleistocene rains pouring in Sahara.

VAK,

Yes you did write about these GCMs that predicted changed storm tracks but I never found any quotes  (by you or anyone else) to any studies that showed this. Can you point me to the right direction?

5
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: January 09, 2021, 10:10:46 AM »
I do not remember if this article has been quoted before in this thread:

https://www.shelterwoodforestfarm.com/blog/the-lost-forest-gardens-of-europe

This is a truly interesting article (with scientific research quoted), detailing how late stone age Europeans relied very much on semi-wild/semi-cultivated hazel groves for a significant portion of their diet and how climate changed destroyed these ancient, sustainable forest gardens, leading our ancestors to (unsustainable) grain production and working only a few hours a day to toiling all day.

I more and more believe that our whole agricultural system is based on the phallacy of annuals while truly sustainable systems are almost always tree-based / agroforestry systems with mostly perennial produce (various nuts, eg. hazel, chestnut, pecan, walnut etc and fruits) and some annual vegetables in between (and possibly small animals raised in theses groves).

However, as our diet is very much based on grains, we would also have to change our dietary habits, which is a very hard sell...

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 07, 2021, 08:12:37 AM »
C'mon, this is sort of a science site. Reading and understanding a Phase 3 abstract is not that difficult.

Pfizer's research is quite clear: most of the immunization is done by the first shot, and you clearly have very strong protection two weeks after the first shot. So, yes, Britain is right ( a rare occurance these days :) vaccinate as many as you can with one shot and worry about the second shot later.

7
Agriculture is responsible for 11% of all Greenhouse Gas emissions globally. Together with related emissions from changing land use and cutting down forests, it accounts for around 30% of GHG emissions globally.

How do they make that part of the pie disappear.

Regenerative agriculture can make the soil a net carbon sink

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 04, 2021, 10:08:54 AM »
Same in Hungary. Officially 10000 dead (population 9,7 million), but excess mortality has been 50% above reported numbers, so true mortality is likely 15000, ie. 0,15% population-wide mortality. Oh yeah, hospitals almost overflowed during the peak of the second wave (end Nov-beg.Dec)

Would you call that mass psychosis or is it a bit more serious than that?

(if the British mutant version spreads here widely then the above numbers will easily double by May)

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 03, 2021, 02:19:06 PM »
So a cancellation due to lightning certainly would have made sense.  Now, what will the weather be in 28 days?    :-\

Well, actually, they made a movie about that:

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 02, 2021, 08:49:55 AM »
The local Health Dept. phoned about an hour ago giving us (wife and me) appointments to receive our first Moderna vaccination shot, tomorrow mid-day.
:)

The nurse, working at 8 pm on New Year's Day, chuckled when I answered the phone (not knowing who it was) with a cheery "Happy New Year!"

Forecast is for rain all day, maybe some lightning, so appointments could get cancelled...
 :-\

Didn't know that rain or lightning made vaccination impossible. In my country they usually administer it indoors
 :):):)

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 31, 2020, 09:29:16 AM »
For anti-vaxxers:

I don't know about your country but in my country infants get COMPULSORY multiple shots against a number of diseases. I can not fathom why adults would not get the vaccine. This is a classic case of freeriding for antivaxxers.
Every society has rules that you must adhere to and those rules were created so that we could all live a better life. If you drive a car after drinking half a liter of whiskey and go thru many red lights you will be arrested and put into jail - because you endanger everyone else. This is the same with the vaccine: if you don't get vaccinated you endanger everyone else.
Solution is simple: if you don't get vaccinated (have no "vaccine passport") then you don't get to fly, you can not go into any place where there are more than 10 people, etc. Your choice.

As for the "risk" of these vaccines: If for some weird reasons you don't trust the relatively new mRNA technology, you can choose from a variety of adenovirus vector vaccines (AstraZeneca or Sputnik V, etc) that have been around for much longer.


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 23, 2020, 08:40:54 AM »
RE:Dickson (and Siberian Islands) high temps during autumn, early winter

I think we have a new pattern here (my pet theory). With the Siberian seas melting early, then warming up and accumulating huge amounts of heat during summer, they can not freeze until Nov/Dec. The huge open seas are very much warmer than surrounding landmasses, so cold pours into this "warm gap" , warms up and rises, creating a huge low pressure system. I think that in the future there will be an 'Arctic Low" instead of the classical Icelandic Low due to this. (I theorized about this before, but this year) we finally saw this happening during October/November. This low creates wind patterns that "protect" Dickson. See schematic picture...

My conclusion: this will likely be a regular feature in the following years

13
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 21, 2020, 08:38:13 AM »
"Forecasting is difficult especially when it concerns the future."
Pierre DAC
 ;D    :-X

Not only that! Models can not even recreate known (regional) past climates, especially precipitation. So why would we think they can forecast the future???

14
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 16, 2020, 08:29:17 AM »
As climate models can not even "backcast" localized Holocene Optimum conditions (especially precipitation, eg Europe, Green Sahara, Fertile Crescent etc.), I have not a bit of confidence in them saying anything about future California winters.
In my opinion it is much more useful to study Eeemian and Holocene optimum conditions to judge what is likely to come

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 13, 2020, 09:04:16 AM »
This is why I believe in the free market approach. Don’t close down restaurants, make them and their patrons liable for damages related to coronavirus infections acquired in their location.


 Then each of them can figure out their individual risk and act accordingly.

Nah.

I believe that free markets can solve many things much better than governments, but there are some glaring inefficiencies and externalies related to free markets. That is when you need a strong government. This is one of those cases. This thing should have been stopped long ago by able governments. Alas, we don't seem to have those in the West.

Meanwhile... Taiwan has 7 (seven!) dead and 736 infected. 1% mortality suggests that they found basically ALL cases. That is how you do it. Act early, act fast, act forcefully.

16
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 09, 2020, 09:01:40 PM »
Oh, and before you think that maybe Zimbabwe is not very good for agriculture, let me show you its climate (ie. the climate of Harare, its capital). This is the most perfect climate for man (no wonder, we all come from the highlands of Africa). No frosts, rarely above 30 degrees, 10-15 C in the morning, 20-25 in the afternoon. A rainy season of 5-6 months. Even without irrigation you should have at least one great harvest. If you have irrigation you can harvest at least twice per year, or even thrice.

17
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 09, 2020, 08:51:43 PM »
Yesterday there was an article about deforestation in Zambia on Al Jazeera. They cut down 3000 square kilometers a year. So i went to take a look how big the country is. And to my surprise it's 750 000 square km. For a population of just 17 million people. And they have more rain than we have. And still many go hungry. So why many go hungry if you can turn any soil into a good soil. Is it just a lack of knowledge ?

It is a lack of knowledge, corrupt government, stupid laws, etc.

Case in point is Zimbabwe, once called the breadbasket of Africa. 390 000 km2. Has 14 million population. Could easily sustain 50 million. Easily!

After a so called landreform, they drove away white farmers, dividied up the land to smallholders and cronies of the maffialike government and the result is:

"Zimbabwe's commercial farming sector was traditionally a source of exports and foreign exchange, and provided 400,000 jobs. However, the government's land reform program badly damaged the sector, turning Zimbabwe into a net importer of food products.[2] For example, between 2000 and 2016, annual wheat production fell from 250,000 tons to 60,000 tons, maize was reduced from two million tons to 500,000 tons and cattle slaughtered for beef fell from 605,000 to 244,000.[102] Coffee production, once a prized export commodity, came to a virtual halt after seizure or expropriation of white-owned coffee farms in 2000 and has never recovered"

Just like the kolhoz system in Russia. Russia was a food importer in the 70s-80s!!! With the world's best soils and huge agricultural areas.

There was a saying in Hungary during my youth: start socialism in the Sahara and soon you will need to import sand. So true.

18
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 09, 2020, 04:52:58 PM »
I have another blog post over on netweather. Looking at some examples of how Arctic Amplification is altering mid-latitude winter weather and contributing to more extremes.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/10610-arctic-amplification-and-winter-weather---whats-the-connection

This theory (waccy weather, wavy jetstream leading to extreme winters) was quite popular at the beginning of the 2010s (after a few cold winters) but I think it's been largely discredited by the very warm winters in Europe. I don't know about NA in detail, but Europe has seen very warm winters in the past 7 years, and what's more, winter minima were significantly higher than previously, ie: no extremes at all. I believe that the opening of the Chukchi/Bering modified the circulation, favoring a colder NA, warmer Europe. I wrote about that (charts, data) in the atmospheric connections thread

19
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 07, 2020, 04:20:28 PM »

One thing i am interested in the micronutrients in the food. Must be less then when grown from some good soil?

I would never want to eat food made in these factories. Pretty sure things grown there have no taste. The things I grow (in very rich soil) are full of taste. Humans by taste can tell lifeless, nutrient-poor food from good food. One of the main reasons for growing my own food is that I want to eat good tasting fruits and veggies and if you buy your food in supermarkets you can not. These artifical light/zerosoil plants must be even worse than supermarket food.
You must taste a fully ripe (grown in rich, natural soil) tomato, peach, apricot, melon or even apple, straight from the tree to know the difference. Fruits/veggies sold nowadays are usually just plain terrible - no wonder children don't want them.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 07, 2020, 08:33:58 AM »
Quick headsup on how Central-Eastern Europe screwed up. As Jesus said the first will be the last and the last will be the first. That is exactly what happened.

These countries closed down in March at the same time as other European countries, but lucky for them, they only had just a few hundred cases at the time. The lockdowns were very stringent and by May there were hardly any cases. Very few people died and both leaders and the population drew the conclusion that COVID is actually not very dangerous and easy to beat. Prime ministers talked about BCG vaccination, and "natural intelligence" (!) of these nations. They were happy to show the West how much better and cleverer they are. You might remember that they had a COVID farewell feast in June in Prague, a mass gathering of epic proportion, feasting together. During summer, everyone acted as if COVID miraculously disappeared. And it did seem so. No masks, open theaters, cinemas, full pubs, travelling to the sea (mostly Croatia), etc.

These governments did nothing at all to prepare for the fall/winter period. Literally nothing.

By the middle of September it was evident that things will be very bad. Experts showed that a huge wave is building but governments hoped that it won't get that bad, since it was not that bad during spring either. Testing was very limited and most often outright denied ("not necessary in your case"). Zero contact-tracing. And even if they tested you, you had to wait many days for results (think 5-10 days in many cases).
So, arrogance and stupidity coupled with no preparation all. The result is worse mortality numbers than in Italy during the first wave. A true study of hubris and nemesis:

21
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 03, 2020, 08:38:15 AM »
OK. We are already 1 C above baseline. This guy says if we move another 0,5 C, then we lose food production. He did not say: yeah, we might lose 1/3 of what Spain produces, or: droughts will reduce US corn production by 50%. No. He did say: we lose food production. Period.

That is complete bullshit.  Not other way to put it. He could have said that food production will decrease by this and this % (I doubt even that), but you could argue that point of view. He said we lose it all. Fake news. 

As for your points:
- a warmer world is a wetter world, there will be MORE rain, not less
- volatility of rainfall (as measured by the length of dry periods) DID NOT increase in the past decades
- volatility of temperatures DID NOT increase in the past decades (as measured by the difference of monthly high and low temperatures). Average temperature increased, not volatility. There's a shift of climatic zones, not a mixing up of them.
- food production INCREASED A LOT as we went to 1C above baseline

The data do not support the above view.

22
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 02, 2020, 09:24:33 PM »

“We’ll lose food production at 1.5°C.” (Carter)

No, I'll call this absolute, total bullshit. A few tenths of degree temperature rise will not kill food production at all. Absolute nonsense.
Yes, some parts of the world will have some trouble growing food at 2-3 C above baseline (likely India and some other, hot tropical areas), but saying that "we will lose food production at 1,5"?! These alarmists are as harmful as deniers, because people will say in a few years (at +1,5C) that they were just scaremongering and "look, nothing happened"...

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 02, 2020, 08:38:09 AM »

Quote
Beckwith is not the most accurate or reliable source and his commercializing the catastrophe is offputting.

And that is putting it very mildly...

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 01, 2020, 08:24:27 PM »
I am not sure these seasonal forecasts are good for anything....
If you are right about that, that's an awful lot of highly skilled time...wasted...

I think I am right about this, though someone with more knowledge might refute me. I won't post more of it here, because it is somewhat OT here (though as many use these seasonal forecasts, maybe not so much).

Anyway, first pic is the skill of a simple persistence model (if you have an anomaly, you expect that to stay for the next month), second is ECMWF seasonal forecast skill (detrended!). Paper is from 2010. There is basically no forecasting skill in the detrended version. There is some skill in the normal (non detrended) version but that is mostly due to global warming: you need to expect warmer than average temperatures and you will be right most of the time. But that is no skill...

(Doblas-Reyes: seasonal prediction over europe)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: December 01, 2020, 04:29:56 PM »
I am not sure these seasonal forecasts are good for anything. As far as I remember their chance of coming true is not better than rolling a dice. 

I think looking at the average of the past years is at least as good as these:


26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: December 01, 2020, 04:20:06 PM »
... it's not the amount of sunlight or supplements that matter; it's the microbiome ...

Study Reveals Connection Between Gut Bacteria and Vitamin D Levels
But the team unexpectedly found no correlations between where men lived and their levels of active vitamin D hormone. ... "So in this case, maybe it's not how much vitamin D you supplement with, but how you encourage your body to use it."

Robert L. Thomas et al. Vitamin D metabolites and the gut microbiome in older men, Nature Communications (2020).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19793-8

There 's more and more evidence that our microbiome is extremely important for our health. And your microbiome depends very much on what you eat.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 30, 2020, 04:47:37 PM »
.... and 2020's very advanced refreeze giving Hudson Bay sea ice area and extent above the 1990s average.....
and Greenland sea ice extent and area approaching the 1990's average.

Oh yes! We seem to have a forming new Cold Pole in the Greenland-Hudson area. It seems to be a trend since 2014 when the Chukchi started to be more open very late (results in warm Chukchi, warm Eurasia, cold NA, esp. Canada)...Talked about that in the atmospheric connections thread. This is 2014-20 winter temps vs 2006-13:

28
I do think it is a very important teleconnection and I have never read about it anywhere, so I might eventually get the Nobel Prize for this :) :) :)

Anyway, I don't have the NA temp anomaly data at hand but if you can point it to me, I'll do the math. (my main interest was and is Europe as I live here)

As for dates: Nov 20 works worse. It seems to me that Dec 1 is the best.

As for current numbers: Hudson minus Chukchi % is currently below 2017,18,19, but above all other years. Would suggest a warmer European winter

29
What's more, my observation is that the more open the Chukchi and the more iced over the Hudson, the warmer it is in Europe during winter. So here I plot Hudson % ice cover minus Chukchi %icecover on Dec 1, and European winter temp anomaly. Lo and behold

30
Observation:

Since 2007, whenever the Hudson freezes over early, winters are usually milder in Europe. May have something to do with the "Pole of Cold" being displaced to the American side saving Europe from the cold...

I was curious about this, so I graphed it. One is DJF, one is JFM

Two things.

1) I should have said that I used Dec 1 values
2) I think you might have mixed up the numbers, because for example the 2019 Dec 1 ice extent values need to be paired with 2019 Dec, 2020 Jan 2020 Feb temparatures (3,4C anomaly not 1,2 C as seen on your chart). I think you paired it with 2018Dec, 2019Jan, 2019Feb

here is my chart where Dec1 Hudson ice cover is paired with Copernicus European DJF anomaly:

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 20, 2020, 02:04:25 PM »
I still find 2018 the best analogue. We are cca 2 weeks behind:

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: November 18, 2020, 07:28:05 AM »
Not until people say "I am responsible for  destroying the planet" instead of blaming it on anyone else, will change happen.

Yes, the rich consume more resources than the poor. However, global aviation is responsible for only 2,5% of CO2 emissions, and even a part of that is freight aviation  (ups and amazon sending all the goodies to you).
So we are talking about at most 1% of total emissions. 10 times as much is emitted by passanger traffic, ie. average Joe driving around instead of biking, walking, whatever.
Aviation by the rich is a red herring. Reduction of superfluous consumption, change of habits by all is needed, besides government regulation aiming to reduce emissions. But look what happened when France wanted to put some 10 cents per liter tax on gasoline: the people revolted. People don't want change. people want to live their cozy lives....

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 17, 2020, 03:51:39 PM »
China's CCP's a mastermind in trying to shift blame about this virus to other countries.

Thing is, they did beat the virus. Economy stayed sound, very few dead. Who else did that? Europe? US? Both failed miserably: economy tanked and in exchange for that....lots of dead. What a shame for the Western world.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:17:34 AM »
Here's the September anomaly map from Climate Reanalyzer.  I'll be interested to see Octobers when it turns up, and Nov. after that to see if my hunch is borne out.

wait no more:

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2020, 01:57:36 PM »
The Younger Dryas event was mostly limited to the Northern Hemisphere. Greenland ice cores can only show what is happening in and around Greenland,

Yes. He (Glen) was talking about localized effects, and the study I  attached is also localized (Greenland). Apples to apples. Definitely not talking about global change

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2020, 12:09:14 PM »
       +2.7C per decade is Monstrous. 

You ain't seen nothing yet. 10 C in 1-3 years IS monstrous and that did happen at the end of the last glacial and then again with beginning and end of the Younger Dryas:

"The high-resolution records from the NGRIP
ice core reveal that polar atmospheric circulation
can shift in 1 to 3 years,
resulting in decadal- to
centennial-scale changes from cold stadials to
warm interstadials/interglacials associated with
large Greenland temperature changes of 10 K

(6, 20). Neither the magnitude of such shifts nor
their abruptness is currently captured by state-ofthe-
art climate models.
"

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5288829_High-Resolution_Greenland_Ice_Core_Data_Show_Abrupt_Climate_Change_Happens_in_Few_Years

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 09:35:28 PM »
It's disingenuous to lump the US as a single entity, just as it is to lump all of Europe together.

Might be. Still, you need to see the forest from the trees.

My point is that by the end of January 20-30% of the population in the US and Europe will have been infected. That will be enough for partial herd-immunity in many places given "liveable" restrictions. After that summer comes and vaccination. New infections top during Nov-Dec in most countries (deaths top in Dec-Jan) and then it is going downhill. It is simple maths.

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:01:34 AM »
You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

To misquote the "Good the Bad and the Ugly":

"You know my friend, there are two kinds of people in this world: The ones who listen to science and reason, and the ones who are misled by populists"

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 02, 2020, 08:38:54 AM »
Now the 2nd wave is larger than the first. Perhaps they have adopted 'massaging the death numbers'? We have no independent institutes.[/i]

all over the world the second wave is similar:
- mostly younger people get it, so mortality is way down
- there is also more testing capacity, so more cases are found than before
- and finally: it is still going up, and median mortality from infection is close to a month, so death numbers will still go way up

40

Is there a risk that there will be colder autumns and winters (which was expected due to the slowing down of the gulf stream and which did not happen)?

Hansen et al had a study about the slowing of AMOC and colder winters. I wouldn't put too much weight on localized forecasts though. Our current climate models still wrongly "backcast" Europe's Holocene optimum precipitation and temperature patterns and they are also unable to replicate the Green Sahara that is obvious from paleodata. Both happened within 10 000 years.

I think the generalized view for winter is that with the Arctic warming, the Siberian High should weaken, which should reduce major cold breakouts from there and that should warm Europe up. At the same time however, the jetstream would be wavier which should create more Arctic (cold) and more African (warm) intrusions during winter. Good thing is that with the Arctic warming, those cold breakouts (though more numerous) should be not as cold as in the past.

My speculation that belongs to me (wording copyright by gerontocrat)  is therefore that the weather should be more changeable with some weeks of very, but not record cold weather but average temperatures will be going up (and weeks of November-like temperatures) . So far, that seems to be the case as shown for the past years when the Arctic was warm=Siberia was warm=Europe was warm

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 05:09:56 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.   

42
I have long thought that as the Arctic seas remain open longer during autumn, the Aleutian Low will be displaced. I think this might be happening this year. When you have very warm seas and continental land masses cool during October, cold air moves toward the warm seas and rises, creating our well know Icelandic and Aleutian Lows. What happens though when the Siberian seas are very warm? It seems that the Aleutian low is displaced and a new, Siberian Seas Low is created (I believe that eventually this will morph into the Arctic Low when we reach BOE). You can see this year's air pressure chart on the first pic, and the climatological average on the second. The Aleutian low is very weak, and there is a new low in the Siberian Seas.

The loss of the Aleutian Low has significant consequences for NH weather. The Aleutian Low used to push wet, mild air into Canada, warming it and separating colder, Arctic airmasses from the US. As you can see on the third picture, the lack of these airmasses led to cold breakouts into the US this year. Also, as warm Atlantic air is no longer pushed towards Mongolia but instead into Northern Siberia/ESS region, the inner parts of Eurasia are also cooler than average.

43
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: October 26, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
If you have lots of woody, high-carbon stuff (woodchips, leaves, straw), you should put in things that are high in nitrogen, like grass clippings, coffee grounds, kitchen scraps or good old fashioned urine (human as well). These all have lots of N to kickstart the process. You also might want to put a tarp on to keep the pile warm

44
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: October 25, 2020, 07:46:40 AM »
Amazingly, some figs are still ripening on my trees, also some raspberries. These two are (in my experience) among the most easy to grow, rewarding fruits. I do absolutely nothing with my fig trees/bushes. No pruning, no nothing. I just pick the fruits. I mulch around their roots with with fall leaves in November (the neighbours gather and bag their leaves and I pick those up - their loss, my gain) and that is all. The leaves serve as protection from the cold and also serve as food for the trees (nutrients).
These twice-bearing/ever-bearing raspberries are also quite phenomenal. I pick them every day or every other day and I always get some very nice, sweet ones from June till October. Isn't life beautiful?

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 24, 2020, 10:36:48 AM »

Here in Germany they still insist that the current numbers cannot be compared to the spring numbers because they test more, which is kind of true, but the worrying part is that the test positive rate is going up steeply. It was way below 1% in summer and the latest number now is 3.6 %.

Those numbers are pathetic. We have a 15% positivity rate! Now, that is something! The dead are piling up. No matter. Stadiums are full with a major soccer event scheduled for the weekend. This is how real tough nations, like us, the Hungarians do it.
(first chart: positivity rate, second: daily deaths and 7 day moving average of deaths)

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan
« on: October 24, 2020, 07:53:03 AM »
Beyond meat and impossible foods create monsterfoods that are totally unnatural, made up of so many ingredients from so many countries and are heated, cooled, compressed, mixed, turned upside down, inside out, etc that I bet they are definitely not good for your body and if anyone counted their carbon footprint (palmoil grown in terrible monocultures and shipped from Malaysia, exotic seed cultivated in Africa, soyextract from Brazil, etc) I think it might be above that of meat.

If you want to go vegan for either health or environmental reasons, you need to concentrate on locally, organically grown fruits, nuts, vegetables, grains. Consume as much of them raw as you can. If you worry about protein, tofu has been around for centuries, it is good.

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Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:21:25 PM »
Mon General!

I think that the Chinese purposefully planted many types of trees that would help create a true ecosystem (and it did create that ecosystem in fact!).
Noone nowadays plants forests* with just one species exactly because we now know that it will never be an ecosystem. I know. I plant trees :)

*by forest I mean forest, not industrial plantations (short rotation coppice willow or poplar, etc) of course which are not forests

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:07:38 PM »
Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population....

I live in Central Europe. During springtime CEU did a full lockdown with hardly any cases at the same time as othe EU countries, but those countries by that time had many cases, while CEU only had a few clusters. That is why they seemed very successful.

This, however, led to a total lack of precaution. Life returned to normal from May: parties, weddings, family gatherings. Everything. No government bans on anything: festivals, cinemas, theater, etc, all could go on. No ban on mass events.

Both the population and politicians believed after spring that COVID is easy to beat and not dangerous. This led to our current situation. In my country based on my model I believe that cca 2% of the population is currently infected. We will likely have 10-15 thousand dead by spring out of 10 million. Mind you, we still have football games full of fans, weddings and whatnot

49
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 22, 2020, 07:25:56 AM »
Agroforestry is by now a proven method for drylands. Water harvesting techniques plus planting mostly nitrogen fixing trees (eg. Inga species, see eg here: https://www.rainforestsaver.org/inga-alley-cropping-manual)
make it possible to grow crops with little water and no or little fertilizer.

Basically, the trees shade and protect the ground during the (often very long) dry season and are then pruned heavily (to chest height) before the wet season. The cuttings and leaves, rich in nitrogen, are spread in the tree alley, fertilizing it. They sow grains, which sprout and grow quickly as the rains arrive. By the time of the harvest, the canopy closes again and the cycle begins anew.

A wonderful film about how the Chinese regreened the deserted Loess Plateau, a must watch:



Also, greening the desert project in Jordan, by permaculturalist Geoff Lawton:


These two films are truly about places becoming more liveable. We can do this.

50
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 21, 2020, 03:52:05 PM »
I believe that Co2 emissions will be cut drastically by 2050 (50-80% from today's levels) and eliminated by 2100. No Arctic sea ice from June till December (like the Hudson).
Most anything beyond 40 N will be warmer, wetter and more productive agriculturally. I think that we shall once again have a Green Sahara with huge new areas to grow food. I also believe that current puny 1-1,5 t/ha average grain yields in Africa will reach East Asian averages of cca 4-5 t/ha. 
Stockholm will be the new Paris, London will be the new Rome. Pensioners will flock to Ireland to buy holiday homes on the island with the most pleasant climate. Russia and Canada will be the breadbaskets of the world.

I am dead serious.

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