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Messages - FrostKing70

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
Let's be careful not to spend to much time and effort on dealing with a symptom of the problem...

2
Antarctica / Getz Ice Shelf - Iceberg B-47
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:24:27 PM »


"ESA released a GIF on Thursday created from Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite images between Sept. 2 and Oct. 14. The animation shows the iceberg calving and then executing a graceful spin once free in the waters of the Amundsen Sea."

https://www.cnet.com/news/see-a-boston-sized-iceberg-break-off-antarctica-and-go-for-a-spin/

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 02:38:58 PM »
For those interested in the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), here is the source I use:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:29:59 PM »
Some of the models are taking Dorian to borderline Cat 4 or Cat 4 strength before it reaches Florida.   I hope the intensity stays on the lower end.

5
2019 will be in the top 2 or 3 hottest years, making 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 the 6 hottest years on record.   Combine this information with the above about scientists underestimating the impacts and how quickly they will manifest and I get even more concerned that my new house will have a water view sooner than expected!

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 16, 2019, 08:29:07 PM »
I think 10 - 20 GT remaining seems about right.  The average is a bit less than that, but we are trending with greater loss, and the season might extend out a day or a few days.

7
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:47:17 PM »
A few weeks ago (during heat wave) there was a prediction of an additional 50 GT of melt by the end of melt season.    I thought that seems low and predicted 100 to 125 GT.   How many GT have we lost since those posts?

8
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:41:06 PM »
Only a few more and I can be Frazil Ice, too!

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:40:09 PM »
Interesting article over at Wunderground:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/July-2019-Earths-Hottest-Month-Recorded-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Key part for me:

"2019 a lock to be among the 5 warmest years in Earth’s recorded history
The January through July year-to-date period was the tied with 2017 for the second warmest global temperatures on record, behind 2016, according to NOAA. According to their global annual temperature ranking outlook, it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history. This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will be the last six years--2014 through 2019."

10
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:37:28 PM »
I always wondered how much I needed to post to get rid of the lurker tag, now it is gone by Neven magic!

11
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:27:05 PM »
Simple rule of thumb which has served me well.   I still mess up sometimes, but try to read my post after it is written and ask myself "Would I say this to my children or spouse?"   If I wouldn't, I try to change it to something I would say to them...

12
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 12, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »
Found this over at:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Shows that 2019 is tracking nearly in step with 2012 for this metric.

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 02:54:11 PM »
To clarify my last post a bit.  Last daily SMB was 10 GT loss.   The forecast for the next 3-5 days looks like we will be in a similar SMB loss. 

If we lose 10 GT per day for the next 3-5 days, that is 30 - 50 GT, with several weeks left in the season.

If "only" lose 8 GT in the same period, we will lose 24 - 40 GT, again with several weeks left in the season

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 10, 2019, 06:09:23 AM »
I have been out for a few days, moving to a smaller house.   Do any of the reliable models show any improvement in the near future?

16
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:50:49 PM »
This was posted in the 2019 melting season thread, but thought it would be a good fit here, as well.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html

Watch the ice melt out south of the Nares Strait in a few days!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:57 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

18
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 07, 2019, 09:02:05 PM »
A little more detail for background:

http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp

You can Google to find other articles, this is the first one I found which had a number for the sea level drop near Greenland.




19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 03:31:55 PM »
The gravity effect seems reasonable to me.  Link to NASA video on sea level changes since 2002:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
 

20
Wouldn't 20.74 put it below 2018?

21
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: February 18, 2019, 05:47:37 PM »
Line continues to trend towards the lower edge of the 30 year band:

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:29:24 PM »
How much longer is the melt expected to last, at least for this particular event?

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