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Messages - FrostKing70

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1
The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:24 PM »
Here is the article I referenced up thread (or at least a similar one!):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/


2
I don't have the deep science background (and math!) to determine if this is a crazy idea or feasible.   Tossing this out for discussion and input from the forum:

Could we combine existing technologies and create systems to harness radiative cooling during polar night to release energy into outer space to buy us time to reach a carbon neutral society, and then to start removing carbon from the atmosphere?

In my mind we use wave action or currents to pump water into the atmosphere, atomizing it so that it freezes in the polar night and the energy released is then radiated into space.   This would create "ice islands" which would contain salt, but would grow thicker during the polar night.   There are probably some issues with scale / size of the equipment, so there would likely be hundreds, or thousands,  of these deployed at both ends of the world.

Obviously, there are a lot of questions!  Some which come to mind:

1.  Would this work in the harsh environment?
2.  What possible downsides could there be?
3.  Could we release enough energy this way to create a measurable difference?
4.  Others?

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 23, 2020, 11:06:28 PM »
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.

The idea of two storms merging to create a "megastorm" is a bit hard to believe.  The shear created by each storm weakens the other storm.  Dr Masters mentions this in one of his posts on YCC.

4
What a difference a few days can make!  Hard to believe this year closed the gap to the mean!

5
SMB gain in mid august, I don't think that happens very often!

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: July 30, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »
Let's not forget that due to the mass loss on the ice sheet, the sea level around Greenland is falling.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
 

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: July 22, 2020, 05:37:58 PM »
Gonzalo is here and I suspect the "X" in the Gulf of Mexico will become Hanna.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 22, 2020, 12:46:49 AM »
Is this same system pumping heat onto the ice?

10
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 22, 2020, 05:47:49 PM »
Nanning,

On the tomatoes, I was always taught (and confirmed via Google search) that we should plant the bottom 1/3 to 1/2 of the tomato stem below grade (bury it).   This apparently helps to get the roots deeper so need less water, plus the tomato will grow roots on the stem that is now below grade giving it even more roots to absorb water and nutrients.

I have read conflicting reports about removing the leaves below grade.  I usually cut them off, but some articles suggest leaving them in place.

Here is one link:

https://www.gardeningknowhow.com/edible/vegetables/tomato/planting-tomato-plants.htm

regards
FK

11
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 17, 2020, 08:06:37 PM »
I live on the Texas Gulf Coast, our native clay / gumbo is not good for growing many veggies.  Last year I started putting in beds raised 2 feet above the existing soil, and filled them with 1' of sand then a mix of 2/3 compost and 1/3 expanded shale (water retention) and the veggies look great!

We have planted over 30 different fruit trees and shrubs in the clay, which are doing well so far.

Any one else using raised beds for their gardens? 

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 11, 2020, 03:12:36 PM »
Interesting.   Looking at the data at each end a little differently,

312,100 MW * 0.64 Utilization = 199,744 MW Generated

235,500 MW * 0.48 Utilization = 113,040 MW Generated.

113,040 / 199,744 = 56.6% generated last year compared to the first year in the chart

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 03, 2020, 09:11:46 PM »
Interesting article on the heat trapped in the deeper water.  Does anyone know of any research or theory about how far this can go until the warmer water "flips" with the cold and rises to the surface?  It feels like the system has to reach a point where it becomes unstable and the warmer water comes to the top.

14
Thank you, that was very helpful!   

As I look at the overlay, it appears the equilibrium line on the south side is close to the 1,500 meters mentioned in the article, and climbs upward the farther north we go on the ice sheet. 

Makes perfect sense now that I see it, but I was not mentally adjusting for how long the GIS is from south to north and the associated temperature and isolation differences!

16
I have a question that I do not know how to find the answer to, hoping some one here can point me in the correct direction!

At what elevation would we expect all of the snow from a given winter to melt and then run off the Greenland Ice Sheet?  In other words, at what elevation would we expect the ice sheet to no longer gain mass in a given year?

In my mental model, I am expecting the southwestern side of the GIS to melt first, and reach a point where the melting accelerates as the elevation gets lower and lower.

regards
FK

17
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 26, 2020, 08:47:28 PM »
The recent announcement that people are contagious prior to showing symptoms is very troubling to me.   I haven't found information in incubation duration prior to becoming symptomatic yet...

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 04:35:39 PM »
Let's be careful not to spend to much time and effort on dealing with a symptom of the problem...

19
Antarctica / Getz Ice Shelf - Iceberg B-47
« on: October 18, 2019, 05:24:27 PM »


"ESA released a GIF on Thursday created from Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellite images between Sept. 2 and Oct. 14. The animation shows the iceberg calving and then executing a graceful spin once free in the waters of the Amundsen Sea."

https://www.cnet.com/news/see-a-boston-sized-iceberg-break-off-antarctica-and-go-for-a-spin/

20
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 02:38:58 PM »
For those interested in the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), here is the source I use:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic


21
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:29:59 PM »
Some of the models are taking Dorian to borderline Cat 4 or Cat 4 strength before it reaches Florida.   I hope the intensity stays on the lower end.

22
2019 will be in the top 2 or 3 hottest years, making 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 the 6 hottest years on record.   Combine this information with the above about scientists underestimating the impacts and how quickly they will manifest and I get even more concerned that my new house will have a water view sooner than expected!

23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 16, 2019, 08:29:07 PM »
I think 10 - 20 GT remaining seems about right.  The average is a bit less than that, but we are trending with greater loss, and the season might extend out a day or a few days.

24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:47:17 PM »
A few weeks ago (during heat wave) there was a prediction of an additional 50 GT of melt by the end of melt season.    I thought that seems low and predicted 100 to 125 GT.   How many GT have we lost since those posts?

25
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:41:06 PM »
Only a few more and I can be Frazil Ice, too!

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:40:09 PM »
Interesting article over at Wunderground:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/July-2019-Earths-Hottest-Month-Recorded-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Key part for me:

"2019 a lock to be among the 5 warmest years in Earth’s recorded history
The January through July year-to-date period was the tied with 2017 for the second warmest global temperatures on record, behind 2016, according to NOAA. According to their global annual temperature ranking outlook, it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history. This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will be the last six years--2014 through 2019."

27
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 07:37:28 PM »
I always wondered how much I needed to post to get rid of the lurker tag, now it is gone by Neven magic!

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:27:05 PM »
Simple rule of thumb which has served me well.   I still mess up sometimes, but try to read my post after it is written and ask myself "Would I say this to my children or spouse?"   If I wouldn't, I try to change it to something I would say to them...

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 12, 2019, 10:21:05 PM »
Found this over at:

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Shows that 2019 is tracking nearly in step with 2012 for this metric.

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 02:54:11 PM »
To clarify my last post a bit.  Last daily SMB was 10 GT loss.   The forecast for the next 3-5 days looks like we will be in a similar SMB loss. 

If we lose 10 GT per day for the next 3-5 days, that is 30 - 50 GT, with several weeks left in the season.

If "only" lose 8 GT in the same period, we will lose 24 - 40 GT, again with several weeks left in the season

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 10, 2019, 06:09:23 AM »
I have been out for a few days, moving to a smaller house.   Do any of the reliable models show any improvement in the near future?

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 03, 2019, 06:50:49 PM »
This was posted in the 2019 melting season thread, but thought it would be a good fit here, as well.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html

Watch the ice melt out south of the Nares Strait in a few days!

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 23, 2019, 10:30:57 PM »
Polar bears can swim a loooonnnnnggggg way.....

https://news.mongabay.com/2012/05/just-how-far-can-a-polar-bear-swim/

"Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are capable of swimming incredible distances, according to a new study published in Zoology, which recorded polar bears regularly swimming over 30 miles (48 kilometers) and, in one case, as far as 220 miles (354 kilometers). The researchers believe the ability of polar bears to tackle such long-distance swims may help them survive as seasonal sea ice vanishes due to climate change."

35
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: May 07, 2019, 09:02:05 PM »
A little more detail for background:

http://nautil.us/issue/62/systems/why-our-intuition-about-sea_level-rise-is-wrong-rp

You can Google to find other articles, this is the first one I found which had a number for the sea level drop near Greenland.




36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 03:31:55 PM »
The gravity effect seems reasonable to me.  Link to NASA video on sea level changes since 2002:

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2626/evidence-of-sea-level-fingerprints/
 

37
Wouldn't 20.74 put it below 2018?

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: February 18, 2019, 05:47:37 PM »
Line continues to trend towards the lower edge of the 30 year band:

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:29:24 PM »
How much longer is the melt expected to last, at least for this particular event?

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