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Messages - wolfpack513

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1
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 09, 2020, 01:12:17 AM »
My estimate was right on the number from earlier post.   NOAA released 2019’s mean CO2 level: 411.44 ppm.  Up 2.92 ppm over 2018. 

2
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 08, 2020, 07:05:53 PM »
Copernicus(ERA5) came down today.  December 2019 tied with 2015 as the warmest December on record.  The calendar year 2019 was the 2nd warmest on record behind 2016.   2019 was +0.59°C above the 1981-2010 average or ~+1.20°C.  2016 was +0.63°C for the year.

3
Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: December 13, 2019, 06:27:42 PM »
With 2019 emissions estimates now in, we’ve got updated mitigation curves with remaining carbon budgets. 

Bunny slopes to black diamonds in the last few decades.  2.0°C & 1.5°C targets. 

4
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 13, 2019, 06:24:15 PM »
Reanalysis puts daily GMST anomalies at around the highest values of the entire year of 2019. 

http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

5
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 05:29:56 PM »
But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?

Whoops brain fart.  I have it backwards.  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months. 

6
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 04:46:57 AM »
**Edit** chart is backwards.  Should say CO2 growth rate lags ENSO by 5 months.

Here's NOAA monthly CO2 growth rates vs Niño 3.4 ONIs.  I lagged CO2 Growth rate by 5 months and seemed to line up with NIÑO 3.4 ONI.

7
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:39:02 PM »
If you correct for ENSO, 2019 could finish above 2016 but actual anomalies that's not going to happen.

Here's the running 10-month for BEST which includes October 2019.  Look how much lower this year is compared to the peak in 2016.  Even if November & December 2019 beat 2016 it still wouldn't be enough.


8
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 02, 2019, 05:33:24 PM »
I calculated 410.30 ppm for November 2019 from NOAA Mauna Loa data.  Official data will come down in a few days.

That's a growth rate of 2.28 ppm over November 2018.  Trailing 12-month average is now beginning to dip below the most recent peak.  Looks like 2019 will come in around ~2.90 ppm but of course that depends on the next 4 weeks.

9
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 20, 2019, 03:12:38 PM »
NOAA & Berkeley Earth also came in at 2nd warmest October behind 2015.

Here's overlapping 30-year trends for Berkeley Earth.  Trend has slowly risen from 0.18° per decade starting in the early 1970's to currently 0.20°C per decade.

10
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 15, 2019, 03:48:51 PM »
JMA places October 2019 at 2nd warmest October on record.  JMA's coverage at the poles is sparse which is a big difference from Copernicus.  Copernicus place October 2019 as the warmest just over October 2015.

11
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 08, 2019, 01:28:45 AM »
October 2019 came in at +2.53 ppm over October 2018.  Looks like 12-month rate running average is approaching the next peak: just under 3.0 ppm. 

12
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 02, 2019, 09:13:02 PM »
NCEP Reanalysis came in very warm for October.  Conversion to GISS is looking like >+1.00°C for October 2019.  October GISS record is +1.08°C in 2015. 

13
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:10:21 PM »
Berkeley Earth came in at warmest September on record.  Of course GISS, JMA & NOAA were just below 2016.

For me the trends are more interesting than individual months.  Here's overlapping 30-year Berkeley Earth trends.  1970-1999: 0.17°C per decade, 1980-2009: 0.18°C per decade & 1990-2019: 0.20°C decade. 

14
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:46:00 AM »
Using a 5-year average?  Deniers do the same thing.  Be careful with cherry picking, it goes both ways.  Only 18 ONIs (ENSO) were at or below 0.0°C in the last 5 years.  2011-2015 there were 33 ONIs below 0.0°C.

20-year smooths is about as low as I like to go due to internal climate variability.  Still gives you about +1.2°C on BEST.  At current pace that's just under 15 years before +1.5°C

15
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 29, 2019, 07:01:34 PM »
Preliminary September NOAA CO2 growth rate.  Doesn't include today or the 30th but shouldn't change much.  September 2019 Average will be around 408.50 ppm.  Almost exactly 3 ppm growth rate over 2018.  The running 12-month average growth rate is also now almost exactly 3 ppm.

16
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 23, 2019, 06:43:50 PM »
Last week was also the bottom in 2018.  I believe that's earlier than usual so 2019 will likely go slightly lower for a weekly average.

17
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 19, 2019, 04:19:11 PM »
Thanks Nanning! :D   

Take Berkeley Earth global mean temperature for example.  The 20-year running average clearly shows steady warming since the 1970s which is much different than warming rates the prior 120 years.  The current warming rate of 2°C/century is 3 times that of the linear trend since 1850.

18
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:14:24 PM »
I like those graphs BornFromTheVoid, they have the base line, clear axis names, units and a zero point :) .
The only thing that's missing is the delta_T from pre-industrial to the base line 1981-2010. But hardly anyone puts that in.

Except that JMA use's a linear trend for a non-linear dataset.  The current rate of warming is more than double the 1890-2019 rate.  Very misleading to have that 0.70°C/Century on the chart.

19
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 07, 2019, 09:32:02 PM »
AVISO(JASON-3) global mean sea level updated through July 5, 2019.  You can see the slight jump the past 12 months due to the El Niño.  Level has also been above the linear trend for 4 years now.  With Acceleration GMSL should continue to outpace 1993-2019 linear regression.

20
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 06, 2019, 09:51:49 AM »
August 2019 came in at 409.95 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 2.96 ppm over August 2018.  The running 12-month average is at ~2.8 ppm, the 2nd highest level in the last 14 years after the 2015-2016 super Niño. 

21
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 22, 2019, 10:55:26 AM »
Touching more on the acceleration of the last 50 years.  Here's BEST 1970-2019 with overlapping 30-year trends.  Each 30-year rate has been increasing starting with 1970-1999.  In order here's the rates: 1.60°C/century, 1.80°C/century & 2.00°C/century.

22
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 14, 2019, 04:41:20 PM »
July tied with 2016 for warmest on record on JMA.  NOAA, GISS & BEST will be coming down in the next couple of days.  I would expect some if not all of these datasets at warmest on record for July 2019.

23
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 08, 2019, 03:05:54 PM »
Through July, 2019's growth rate is 3.10 ppm.  Only one year has finished above 3.00 ppm: 2016 at 3.01 ppm.   1998 & 2015 finished just below a 3 ppm growth rate.

24
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: August 07, 2019, 09:13:45 PM »
July came in at 411.77 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.06 ppm.  Running 12-month growth rate average is now ~2.80 ppm/year and above the trend.  The rate of the growth rate (acceleration) is about 0.70 ppm/decade². 

25
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:51:42 PM »
An historically strong kelvin wave passed right over Hawaii(155°W) earlier this month.  Like the MJO these convectively active & inactive phases have major impacts on local tropical convection & changes in mixing/circulations.  There is no grand conspiracy, abnormal/volatile measurements of CO2 are processed through QC. The entire point of Mauna Loa is to measure a well mixed CO2 concentration that is representative of global levels.  Local contamination would make these useless. 

26
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 30, 2019, 10:36:55 AM »
July 2019 is looking like another monthly record.  Moyhu reanalysis through July 27th translates to +0.93°C GISS-LOTI equivalent.  July 2016 is the current record: +0.85°C.  http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

27
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 25, 2019, 06:30:11 PM »
Using BEST(Berkeley Earth) I would estimate that we've warmed nearly 1.3°C since preindustrial.  That 1.5°C target is coming soon.  Lets hope that CCS or BECCS works.  :(

28
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 16, 2019, 01:05:36 AM »
Surprised by no mention of the big June GISS-LOTI record of +0.93°C.  2019 beat 2016 by 0.11°C which is a pretty large margin for this time of the year. 

29
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 10, 2019, 03:44:50 PM »
Updated graphic with official June 2019 numbers: 413.92 ppm.  That's a growth rate of 3.13 ppm.
 The running 12-month mean is now back up to 2.6 ppm/year. 

A couple important things.  This is a chart of rates so a positive linear regression slope = acceleration.  I picked 2006 for the start of my data for 2 important reasons.  2006-2007 was a weak El Niño just like this year.  2006-2007 was also the peak of global economic growth before the 2008-2009 great recession.  That way you can't complain about endpoints.


30
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 18, 2019, 03:13:43 PM »
GISS for May came in at +0.87°C.  Third warmest May on record.  You will notice that the 12-month smooth is back above 30-year linear trend. 

Noticeable step-up following the 2015-2016 Niño.  The brief drop below the 30-year trend was much smaller in time & magnitude compared to the spike above 3 years ago.  BTW the 30-year trend now rounds to 0.20°C per decade.

31
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: June 01, 2019, 09:46:32 PM »
I’ve wondered the same thing.  We all know ENSO has a big impact on CO2 growth variability but this cycle seems to be something else in addition to ENSO.  Look at the peak prior to 2015-2016 El Niño.   The 12-month growth rate peaked in September of 2013.  Why?  2013 ENSO was cool neutral for 10 months leading up to that peak in September.   

32
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 02:42:12 PM »
GISS-LOTI came in at +0.99°C for April.  2nd warmest April on record behind of course April 2016. 

Something I continue to highlight is that the drop off after the 2015-2016 super Niño was much less than previous Niño's: 2010, 1998, etc.

The running 12-month mean anomaly is now back up to the linear trend of 0.20°C per decade.  It took post 1998 & 2010 much longer to rebound.

33
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 19, 2019, 05:17:42 PM »
Here's your overlapping 30-year trends of the last 50 years. Overlap is every 10 years.  Rounding up the trends are: 0.16°C per decade, 0.17°C per decade & the most recent 30 years is 0.20°C per decade.

34
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: April 18, 2019, 10:25:53 PM »
March 2019 growth over 2018 came in at 2.56 ppm.  Running 12-month average is climbing but still below the linear trend of ~2.60 ppm/year².  Still expect the running 12-month to be back above the linear trend soon. 

*Important to remember the linear trend on this chart is a rate change of a rate change.  A positive slope is acceleration.

35
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:55:38 AM »
True.  However, those trend lines are less steep.

That’s the point. A more apples to apples comparison would have been overlapping 30-year trend lines. The trend is a derivative, the steepening of the trend lines is the 2nd derivative: acceleration.

36
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 16, 2019, 03:13:18 PM »
Running 12-month GISS-LOTI temperature is quickly heading back towards 30-year trend line.  Of course due to accelerating warming the 12-month running temperature never dropped below the 40, 50 or 60 year trend line.

37
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: March 23, 2019, 03:24:17 PM »
Updated NOAA monthly growth rates chart including February 2019. YoY February 2019 was the highest growth rate since January 2017.  12-month running average is quickly racing back to the linear trend. 

I chose January 2006 for the start of this data-set for 2 reasons. 2006-2007 ENSO was similar to our current conditions. The 2007 DJF ONI was +0.7°C.  2019 DJF ONI was +0.8°C.  2006-2007 was also the top of an economic cycle similar to recent global economic conditions.  Though not perfect this limits issues with start and end points.

38
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 19, 2019, 06:49:46 PM »
GISS came in at +0.92°C for February.  The running 12-month mean has just jogged below the 30-year linear trend of 0.19°C per decade.  With this year’s ENSO cycle it should head back above it pretty soon.

39
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 06, 2019, 02:44:49 AM »
Surprised at no mention.  Massive jump in NCEP reanalysis dailies the last 2 weeks. February had the highest anomaly in nearly 2 years and March is off to a very warm start.  February may come close to +1.0°C for GISS-LOTI based on Moyhu site.

40
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: February 21, 2019, 07:49:53 AM »
I agree with gerontocrat.  A little early to be talking some huge 2019 growth rates.  3ppm definitely  looks possible considering ENSO the next 10 months.

Through the first 19 days I got NOAA February at 411.8 ppm.  Of course it will change the next 9 days but that's a 3.5 ppm growth rate.  Running 12-months is still only 2.25 ppm including that data.

41
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: February 02, 2019, 07:44:16 AM »
I calculated 410.80 ppm from NOAA's January numbers.  The variability makes it a hard month to gauge. We'll see when the NOAA releases the data.

This is a growth rate of 2.85 ppm over January 2018.  The running 12-month growth rate is back above 2ppm/year.  Should take less than a year to get above 2.5 ppm/year based on previous cycles. 

42
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 30, 2019, 05:23:54 AM »
NOAA’s numbers are down.   2018 came in at 408.52 ppm.  That’s a +1.97 ppm growth rate over 2017.  January is highly variable but will still be a big month.  Last week for example came in +3.68 ppm over same week in 2018. 

43
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 24, 2019, 07:38:00 AM »
I've got the NOAA monthly average so far at 410.62 ppm through January 22.  We may see a year-over-year change of 3.0 ppm from January 2018's 407.96 ppm.  Who knows given the variability in the daily data. 

44
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: January 21, 2019, 06:52:23 AM »
AVISO updated GMSL through October 11.  It has now been 4 years that the 2-month filter has been above the current linear trend of 3.3 mm/year.  How long until it takes 3.5 mm/yr to fit the data?

45
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 06, 2018, 03:47:23 AM »
Updated graph with October's 406 ppm value.  I also extended it back to October of 2006.  I chose this year because it was a La Niña transition to weak El Niño year.   It was also near the peak of the bull market/GDP. 

46
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 02, 2018, 05:56:19 AM »
I calculated 406.10 ppm for October.  That's a year-over-year change 2.47 ppm.  That's the highest monthly growth rate since August 2017.  Pretty clear we've passed the cyclical bottom(typically ENSO related).  I will update graph when official numbers come down.

47
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: October 07, 2018, 10:41:37 PM »
New weekly value of 405.50 ppm.  Down from the week before but higher than the minimum 405.39 ppm 3 weeks ago.  Also up 2.49 ppm from this week last year.

48
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: September 06, 2018, 06:02:24 AM »
August came in at 406.99 ppm.  1.92 ppm year-over-year change.  The running 12-month growth rate is at its lowest level since 2012.  Rates didn't take off until ~October 2015 so impacts from ENSO are still a month or 2 away.

49
Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: August 31, 2018, 05:38:25 AM »
New paper in Nature about changes to El Niño in the last 20 years.  Anomalies are shifting west and Niños on average are weakening.  ITCZ is also shifting north and hasn’t crossed the equator since 1998.  The mean state of the tropical Pacific is trending more La Niña like. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0248-0?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201809&spMailingID=57276774&spUserID=NjIwMjY2Nzg3NAS2&spJobID=1464057119&spReportId=MTQ2NDA1NzExOQS2

50
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 12, 2018, 08:00:09 AM »
June 2018 came in at 410.79.  Nearly a 2 PPM year-over-year change.  The 12-month running smooth should be bottoming out soon with Niño firing up.  It took until ~October 2015 before YoY changes started to jump.  However, that was a multi year Niño which makes it different than previous events.

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