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Messages - GoSouthYoungins

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Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: November 29, 2020, 09:16:39 PM »
I made an little image showing the lack of decrease this year.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 29, 2020, 09:11:32 PM »
People seem to think that exponential growth of wind and solar indicate a coming change in global energy consumption. Y'all are incorrect.

Unfortunately, renewables are just a tiny derivative of an enormous fossil fuel driven industrial global economy. Never has renewable growth supplanted fossil fuel growth. Reality shows that at least ten fossil fuel units of energy need to be added to see a single renewable unit added.

Countries can try domestic policies to pretend to be moving away from fossil fuels, but they are honestly just outsourcing the burning. The atmosphere is global. Emissions matter globally. From this perspective, there is no good news.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 08:31:08 PM »
4-year-old ice can be half a meter thick.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 25, 2020, 06:28:48 AM »
There was once vast swaths of the arctic (particularly next near the CAA) which were many many meters thick. The is over. Done. The end. El fin. Das ende.

The region between greenland and the north pole has been obliterated this year. The pseudo remnant of pseudo thick ice remain...but in general it is just slush.

The change in two decades in astonishing. The fact that the rate of change is increasing and will continue to...IS MIND MELTING. Most ppl just shut it out. Even the ppl who are reasonably aware.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 25, 2020, 05:49:15 AM »
The DMI is not going to drop much for the next week. It may tick up a little.

The DMI graph is disparaged for good reason, but it is also sighted for good reason. Although the graph is abnormally fixated on a tiny region, it embodies the essence of why the arctic sea ice matters...IT CAPS THE WARMING THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE NORTH HEMI!

So while things like the visuals from A-Team are praised (and my dear lord, do they deserve it!), the DMI graph is the opposite end of the spectrum. Both are relevant. One is specific, detailed,  and fascinating. The other bland, basic, and incredibly symbolic/indicative.

2020 arctic/ice situation is the worst ever. By enough margin that it SHOULD be obvious.

It is odd to me that the discussion tends to be fixed on this year relative to previous years. "The Race for the Smallest Minimum" is a distraction.

How about the melt thread focus on the current melt season as it exists as a bridge between the past and the future. Some balance maybe?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:54:24 AM »
Freegrass. The only thing you need to know for the melt pond temps is the salt content of the ice. The water will be pinned to the freezing/melting temp.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 07:06:50 AM »
Ppl on this forum thinking ice that turned blue/grey in June is fine. Okay. 3rd place! Sure.

The Eastern Siberian Lowlands is on fire. The whole macro region is just flaming hot. The siberian seas are warm, the permafrost is thawing, and everything is burning.

Looks good to me. I don't think modern civ will be unliveable until the 2030s. So whatever, the melt isn't that bad.

Policy and solutions / Re: Low GHG Meat
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:51:47 AM »
Get goats. Grow grass. Make more goats. Eat the males. Milk the females.

Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:50:47 AM »
Transport to market has always been the greatest expense in farming.

Nope. Always? I mean, for most of time people did their own food obtainment. Things have slowly but exponentially quickly gone to a system where food transport became more and more important. In high civilization this is the case. But high civilization has never been sustainable.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:03:23 AM »
remove blum as a mod.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 05:48:47 PM »
Laptev has bitten 165km in the last 9 days

<Garbage removed. GSY you are on the fast track to being put under moderation. O>

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:56:50 PM »
Wind farms can't make wind farms. A drilled oil field can provide enough energy to drill a new field (or make a wind farm). Basically the energy comes from fossil fuels originally. If the energy is used to build a solar panel rather than spin a turbine, maybe it is more efficient, but the foundation is always fossil fuel energy.

Industry relies are fossil fuels. Manufacturing, mining, and practically everything else can't be run on wind or solar. These renewables are great at providing addition electricity to a grid that has a base load maintained on fossil fuels. This is the lowest of the low hanging fruit. And we are barely succeeding at that.

The transition will always seem to be at hand in the next decade or two. But it will never happen (until society collapses). It is impossible.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Shift in timing of ice minimum over the years
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:08:30 PM »
I think this is worth discussion. But it is important to keep in mind that minimum is usually barely lower than 2 weeks prior to minimum. September is a really really flat month for arctic ice.

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:03:52 PM »
If your best argument in favour of Trump is that he's marginally (3 years) the younger septuagenarian.

I didn't even make an argument for Trump. But fine:

-He this domestic terrorists should be stopped.
-He wants things made in America.
-He understands the biggest threat to America is China.
-He tries to work for minority votes, not tell people they lose their ethnicity if they consider voting for the other guy.
-He understands that without borders their is no sovereignty
-He believes 2+2=4.

In general, he is a buffoon and 99% of his political views are garbage. But Trump Derangement Syndrome is a severe mental virus that has taken over much of the western world.

TDS will continue to cause people who live in a tiny bubble and are certain they are right to predict a huge Trump defeat. Trump has a good chance of winning. If he does TDS may mutate into a fatal disorder. But whatever, paint the each state blue on your map and be REAL excited for that Tuesday night!

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:57:07 PM »
Worldwide misconception.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:56:30 PM »
Love what FRIV contributes here. But November melt is a concept I'm taking a hard PASS on.

<Please avoid misspelling poster names, whether intentionally or not. O>

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:40:27 PM »
[Neo-nazi Steve Bannon...

Is there any requirement to provide proof that someone is a Neo-Nazi before calling them such? I guess not....

<snip> is a NEO-NAZI!!! We must purge any sign that blum ever existed on this forum or the whole thing is a racist institution.

<edit Neven: Stay on topic and leave out the cheap insults, or you're on moderation fast.>

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:33:35 PM »
Trump would lose to almost anyone with a pulse at this point.

So are you saying that he is a shoe in unless the Dem's pick a new candidate?

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:32:47 PM »
the guy who backs white supremacists.

The biggest falsehood in America right now. "But that's what my favorite "News" outlet told me".

Science / Re: Science basics-thread?
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:21:02 PM »
I think we should consider that "science-basics" are actually perpetuation systemic racism.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:19:46 PM »
It's a thread about police violence.

Deal with it and move on, GSY.

I'm sorry. Somebody must have screwed up at by naming the thread, " George Floyd murder and blowback."

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:02:04 PM »
blum is a joke of a moderator. the only post's allowed in threads that blum mods are posts that specifically go with the narrative blum is pushing.  THAT ISN'T THE POINT OF FORUMS!

How is this:

I'm starting to notice a lot of people pushing back against BLM. The main agreement seems to be that if black military-aged-males commit the majority of the homicides despite being only 6% of the population, of course they have more violent interactions with the cops.  I'm having trouble finding data that can push back against this narrative.

not about the GF's murder and the blowback? but this is:

"Oklahoma cops tased Jared Lakey over 50 times before he died, video shows

Link >>"


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 05:28:46 PM »
Grrr. I post this daily...

Laptev has bitten about 135km in the past 6 days.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 16, 2020, 07:24:48 AM »
Show me a product that Tesla makes anywhere other than Fremont.


What does GigaBuffalo make? I mean its a GIGA factory. I'm sure it makes something.  :-[ ;) :-[

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 16, 2020, 05:13:32 AM »

I like it. Revolution in November. Aliens in December. 2020 is amazing.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 15, 2020, 07:17:59 PM »
<Racism apologism? Nope! If this was sarcasm please mark it as such. - BK>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 03:59:24 PM »
Laptev's bitten 125km in 5 days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 08:19:49 PM »
We're entering uncharted waters.

Uncharted and free of ice...

Please stay ON TOPIC. This is a serious thread.   :D ;) :D

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 07:53:12 AM »
I can't see totality.

I think it is truly impossible.

I think Mikey H is spot on. Good likelihood this year is setting up next year (or the year after) for "the spectacle" of BOE.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 12, 2020, 09:52:45 PM »
As the GAAC insolation melts the CAB ice pack, the GAAC compacting forces will get find less resistance. Thus, if the GAAC continues for another month, there will be a large ice ball at the north pole for Santa to sit on (and no other ice).

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 11, 2020, 02:39:40 AM »
TSLA is "worth" $750,000 per car sold last year. Those cars sold for $60,000 (and Tesla LOST $6,000 per car). Nice.

Elon is probably just buying $2500 TSLA options for pennies per contract that add up to a huge portion of the shares outstanding. This moves the SP way up. Legit.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 11, 2020, 02:35:59 AM »
Chances of TSLA closing above $1500 tomorrow are slim to non-existent.
I LOL at myself. And I pity those sucked into the stock at such prices.

ARK Invest projects TSLA will be worth $4,000 by 2024 — and that’s the base case.  That would be a lot of LOLs, even if purchased today. ;)

4 hamburgers per share.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 11, 2020, 01:29:29 AM »
Their demand is strong...

Basic economics disagrees. The price-demand equation isn't just a silly idea.  It's a simple concept that illuminates a great deal. Alas, you're in the dark.

Let's face facts, Tesla is in a period of exponential growth in a 3 year cycle...

Neil doesn't know what a fact is. Tough concept to be fair. (From the scientific literature I have read, children usually pick up the ability to discern fact from opinion around age 10.)

The potential of FSD, insurance, Semi, Cybertruck and energy is going to continue to drive higher valuations.

That may be true, sorta. The perceived potential may drive the SP up. But the products themselves aren't real...

-FSD has been a few months away for a few years.

-The Semi has been "spotted making deliveries" for years.

-The Cybertruck is an absurdity and quite naturally there is no working model or factory approved to make it (just like the Semi and Roadster).

-Insurance. Lol. Insurance. Tesla is such a joke the board of directors can't even get insured as directors. So Elon is "insuring them". But sure, they'll start their own insurance company. Like the boring company it will be 10x better than the industry standard. Why? Cuz Elon is a genius man! Hyperloop through the tunnel in your Tesla on your way to Mars!!!!!!

-Energy is the fakest of all. I guess the batteries panasonic make work, but as far as energy generation Tesla is a nothing. They don't even manufacture there own solar panels in their fake Giga in NY. They just ship them in from China. And they can't install them for shit. Tesla is rated as THE WORST solar company BY FAR. Which explains why they do a tiny fraction of the business they did when Tesla bought Solar City (in a clear and obvious case of fraud).

All that being said: the SP will probably keep going up. TSLA = $10,000 in 2021? Sure. The problem is that a hamburger is going to cost $1000 in 2025. Capitalism has been ruined. The fed buys Junk Bonds (like Tesla's) providing them with capital. It is ridiculous. When companies that lose money and destroy value are given more capital, rather than cut off from it, a society is doomed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 03:58:17 AM »
The falcon reigns all below him.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:52:29 PM »
Check out the GFS temperature forecast for the next 10 days. I'm not big on CAPS, but this is GLORIOUS !!

Look at all the beautiful ice saving BLUE sub zero temperatures...

The forecast is horrific for "saving ice".

Edit: speaking of Phx, the city in AZ USA will have a MEAN mean-temp of 100F over the next ten days.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:12:55 PM »
Lets discuss Tesla Inc here.

Make a thread down below to discuss Elon Musk Saint or Satan? and various other angles focusing on Elon instead of Tesla Inc.

I must save as many lives in this pandemic as I can. That includes attempting to offset Elon Musk's risk denial propaganda.

That is not really how the internet works. It´s not like even the fan boys here will automatically agree on that with him never mind all the others that have a more moderate position.

Respectable idea. Seems like it makes sense. BUT...we have kinda hashed that out in the past with Neven overseeing. Decision was that Musk and Tesla are tethered and thus it's all germane.

If you are going to over-ride that now, so be it, but I think it's a mistake and against the precedent previously set on this thread.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 06, 2020, 03:43:29 PM »
I want to make it clear...I love Elon Musk.

The guy who flies the most recreational private jet miles in the world. The guy who downplays the pandemic to his wide audience. The guy who is supporting Kayne for Prez. Okay.

I still think Tesla is key to solve the climate change problem.

I don't think you understand the extent of the climate problem. Tesla will not solve the climate problem.

ALL transportation is responsible for like 30% of emissions. Passenger cars are only a fraction of that and are the low hanging fruit. And EVs don't reduce emissions down towards zero. (Especially not a Tesla.) A cheap and long last EV will be a big deal, when one is made.

But leaning into passengers cars is stupid. If you think we just slap some green paint of our first world lifestyle and all the sudden climate change will be're extremely naive.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: July 05, 2020, 04:34:04 PM »
So we are 10 pandemics away from solving climate change. I'll talk to some bats and pangolins I know.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 03:48:01 PM »
<Removed, improper here. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 08:06:43 PM »
Ice colouring blue/grey as far north as 87.5.

Only other year that had almost as far north colour change this early was...2012.

Edit: Image is from July 3

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 06:59:00 PM »
I respect the similarities between the extents of 2014 and 2020, but I think they are otherwise DRASTICALLY different.

The ice in 2014 was mostly white. The ice in 2020 is mostly blueing/greying. This is paramount.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 06:54:04 PM »
The Siberian Ice area anomaly is just going to increase over the next week. The ice has been getting rapidly obliterated near the lena delta and the winds are taking more ice in that direction. And the winds are opening up "the bite" towards the pole more.   

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 02, 2020, 08:31:30 PM »
I remember when Facebook went public. I thought only idiots would buy their stock.

They had plenty of users but made no profit. They hadn’t even figured out a way how to make money out of that user base! Service was awful in many ways. Nobody understood the constantly changing user settings that were used for pricacy violations. All the early adaptors I knew had plans to switch to something better. The cherry on top was the dishonest and unlikeable CEO.

I still think I was right, but it doesn’t pay to be right against the rest of the world.

I think the idea here is that Tesla is somehow like Facebook. This is absurd.

FB went public in 2012. In 2013 they posted a profit and have every year since. Retained earnings: $60 billion.

TSLA went public in 2010. In 2011 fElon Musk said Tesla was going to be profitable the following year. He has said this every year since. Every year they posted a loss. Retained earnings: NEGATIVE $6 billion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 07:00:18 PM »
GAWLab, thanks for the pure gold. Very interesting!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 02, 2020, 05:01:53 PM »
I know I'm the fringe. I also happen to be right.

The mainstream may love WireCar, but it is a fraud.

The stock market told you that Enron was the future of energy, Worldcom was the future of communication, Lehman Bros was the future of banking, and Crazy Eddies was the future of electronics retail. So sure, Tesla is the future of cars.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 02, 2020, 04:17:30 PM »
Tesla is currently "valued" higher than Toyota. In the past decade:

-Toyota made 85 million cars and made $150 billion PROFIT.

-Tesla made 1 million cars and LOST $6 billion.

A world gone mad. Too much centralized political and media power. The masses are detached. The money is fake. The center cannot hold.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:52:11 AM »
Energy is not all the same
You can not directly compare the energy in a liter of oil or kilo of coal to the energy from a solar panel .
1 kilogram of coal 8,1 kwh efficiency of electrical generation using coal about 45%.
1 litre of petrol 9,1 kwh usefull work  if used in transport about 20%.
One kwh of solar or wind energy will give you from 70% of actual work in transport to  near 100% for other uses.

We do not need to produce as much renewable energy to replace inefficient fossil fuels as just looking at raw energy consumption numbers suggests .

Some of what you are saying is true, but in general you have it backwards. At least as far as reality is concerned (vs theoretical).

Solar and Wind energy is drastically more often wasted vs fossil fuel energy. Also, the solar and wind are only functional as surplus/"luxury"/additional electricity generation building on top of a base/foundational electricity generation from fossil fuels (or hydro or nuclear).  It's just the way the infrastructure works.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 01:29:17 AM »
One is a model and one is real life data...both verified but why haven't we seen the cryosat data touted in this thread?

Real life sometimes doesn't conform to the most frictionless group narrative. Welcome to 2020. We have arrived.

The really crazy part will be when the arctic does melt out completely, half the stories in the mainstream will be about shipping lanes and the other half about 2100 sea level rise.  >:(

Permafrost / Re: Arctic wildfires and their effect on sea ice
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:07:47 PM »
Basic logic, oren.

If fires don't go out at the end of the year, it doesn't take a mathematician to figure out whats going to happen to the number of fires.

It takes too many images to post, but if you look on worldview the fires have never been so widespread this early.

By August this conversation will be moot and seem silly. The fires will be epic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 25, 2020, 07:25:49 PM »
Looks like a lot of warmth over the CAA and Laptev, followed by quite a lot of wind that will push ice out towards the Atlantic side.

Bingo. That looks like the story for the next week.

Add to it that smoke is skirting 3000km around the of arctic coast and damn, July will be a party. I'll likely be in quarentine/lockdown, so I'm stocking up on popcorn so I can enjoy the show.

Anyone know if CAA has ever melted out completely? Where is the most resilient ice in the CAA?

I think CAA is going to zero this year.

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