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Messages - Viggy

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 01:30:56 AM »
Made a JAXA extent forecast of 2 - 2.5M in early July and I'm doubling down on it. These conditions are ridiculous and the model runs show a lower and lower low as the event approaches.

This upcoming week is incredibly active globally!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 06:15:21 AM »
I dont see how one can look at the forecast for the next 7 days and summarize that it would be good for the ice. I also think the whole compactness discussion is moot given how mobile the ice pack has been but the next week can shed a lot more light on that discussion as well.

We literally have a polar dipole positioned in such a way from days 2 - 7 that it continuously pushes CAB ice from the Kara to the Chukchi seas, rotating over the Laptev and ESS in the process. The waters there are incredibly warm so I see sea ice dispersing and getting destroyed. If by some miracle, the CAB is significantly more 'compact' than we imagine, then the extent decreases should almost stop due to dispersion of this supposedly thick, compact ice. The higher pressure over the Kara and Barents should also cause dispersion by pulling the ice into their centers.

I think the severity of the season should be pretty apparent by then and on track for a new record but just for good measure, both the GFS and ECMWF are showing HPs reestablishing over the entire Arctic after day 8 ...

3
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:10:20 PM »
I did not go personal without a reason. Gerontocrat should not ask for silence in the data thread or any other thread if then he makes a “deposition” here and there. He is not entitled to make more noise in the data thread than anybody else.

I don’t want to put off anybody’s efforts, anyway the guy is pretty tough skin, I don’t think I will really upset him and it is no longer my intention.

What the hell is wrong with you Gandul?

If you want better data, come up with a format that you think is better and then post it daily without fail year after year. It’s that freaking simple.

People believing that everyone should heed their opinions just because they have one, while they sit at the back of the bus and put in no actual effort (atleast not to the level of consistency of Juan or Geron), are always the first who should be ignored.

Get off your damn rocking chair and work, if you don’t like how things are ... your mindset is freaking appalling

4
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 04:40:07 AM »

The forum has lost quality and I am angry about it. I suspect the new moderation system has not done other than accelerating the downhill.


TLDR - Everyone is wrong except the people I agree with and they dont post here often so I am going to call out the good work and daily, consistent efforts of the people who are here, because "I AM ANGRY" that things have changed!

Its really childish to go poster by poster and say what they did wrong in your eyes, in order to justify some falsified sense of superiority. People are literally just trying to do their best to contribute to a subject they are interested in.

If you wouldn't be a dick to a random group of strangers in real life, its not necessary online either. Its shocking to me that people are so dissociated with their online persona that they care not for how they represent themselves. Just abjectly disappointing.

5
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 12:13:26 AM »
Would be nice if there was a simple term for us.

My inspiration is the Jews who fought back in the Warsaw Ghetto uprising rather than submit to the assembly line death march. They had no chance to get out alive, but they caused the bad guys to expend resources which made a difference to some anonymous people they would never know. The people on Flight 93 did something similar.


Can we not conflate you having a muddled viewpoint with people who fought and died in the holocaust or people who fought against a life or death hijacking situation. It really minimizes the struggles they went through when you use it as some sort of rallying crying for under-represented views on a forum tracking arctic sea ice.

6
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 18, 2020, 10:58:36 PM »
THAT ISN'T THE POINT OF FORUMS!


How is this:

I'm starting to notice a lot of people pushing back against BLM. The main agreement seems to be that if black military-aged-males commit the majority of the homicides despite being only 6% of the population, of course they have more violent interactions with the cops.  I'm having trouble finding data that can push back against this narrative.


Data is easy to find when you look for it - https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls

One, you are patently wrong. Two, escalation from cops which has been documented over and over again is clearly out of sight and out of mind for you.

Three, I love that racists can’t help but out themselves

Lastly, ‘Black-military-aged-males‘ creates a nice scary image but Black’ adults’ is a significantly more effective and less charged way to represent the same idea. But, of course you knew that when you intentionally chose your words.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:11:26 AM »
EC and GFS seem to agree that the high pressure dominance will end at day 7, which is within a day or two of when high pressure dominance ended in 2011. 

So, we have been following along on this extreme high pressure regime since it started in late June/early July. And if I recall correctly, the models have quite often tried to dissipate it in the 5-10 day range only for the HP to persist without change.

Does anyone have data they can provide as to how accurate the models have been past day 5 in hindsight?

I ask because I've noticed a continuous trend to downplay the current events (as Friv noted) based on single model runs that are too far out to be reliable. The next 5 days on the Euro and GFS are mostly in agreement as to there being a persistent HP that slightly expands and moves towards the Beaufort/Chukchi  on day 4-5. That implies to me that this current event will continue without a major pause.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 12:50:18 PM »
There are many similarities. Another. Until this summer, in 2011 there was a record of the earliest opening of the Northeast Passage.


Really cool graph and data! Hadn't seen that before!

And I don't disagree that 2020 has some similarities with 2011. But 2011 hit the brakes hard over the next few days and I don't see anything in the forecasts that predict a similar slowdown this year.

9
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:21:28 PM »
Im going to keep this short per BL's request. Evaluating a post without considering the context of the poster's previous content, is pointless. Go through his post history in the context of the threads they were posted in and its obvious that unrelated/misleading content has been a modus operandi.

Providing a long reply to a baseless post would only serve to legitimize it and I did not wish to aid in the derailment of the great discussion we have on this forum

10
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 09:34:37 AM »
The delusions of someone who thinks his long winded posts equate to plausible deniability ...

The hubris of asking the hardworking moderation team, who he himself stresses out on daily basis, to censor dissent to his pointless, rambling word salads ...

They are cartoonish archetypes whose ideas are not (and should not be) taken seriously.

Oren has a lot more faith in humanity than me because your actions reek of intentionality to me. I am sorry if I come across harshly but I refuse to believe that people have this little capacity for self-reflection.

11
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 08:10:41 AM »

There seems to be a lot of mind reading going on here and its seems like a deflection to avoid discussing matters of substance.

As bl says, "play the ball, not the man".

Your last posts were about -10C in the tallest peaks of the Himalayas being weird weather and a continued insistence on discussing the surface temperature over sea ice centering around 0C being a harbringer of normalizing weather. Neither of those are matters of substance.

Echo chambers are inherent in opinion based forums because people gravitate to viewpoints that support their world view. Science and evidence based discussions are not opinions or viewpoints. Everything being discussed here, can ultimately be proven or disproven based on data and an application of scientific first principles.

A facetious and lengthy post about echo chambers here is about as genuine as posting the same to a medical forum discussing Covid and asking people to make sure to account for the views of covid denialists and anti-vaccers.

12
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 07:15:54 AM »
I really hope someone is at least paying you for the condescending BS and lengthy attempts at derailing threads, Phoenix ...

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:54:37 PM »

The surface temperature of melting ice is always going to be zero until the ice has melted and turned into water - that's thermodynamics -

Attached is the latest DMI 80N temperature chart. It shows the 2m temps coming down from an above normal peak. The forecast calls for a further decline in a few days. If it's not clear, I'm referring to temps at 2m, not at 0m.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

What exactly is the value of this insanity? Temperature at 0m is the around 0C (in the summer) because there is ice at 0m.

Temperature at 2m is close enough to the ice to be anchored around a very tight range around 0C during the summer months. You clearly know and understand this based on previous posts. Yea, there may be tiny fluctuations but there is absolutely zero analytical value in looking at a snapshot of 1 week and calling peaks and declines.

Stop attempting to derail constructive conversation because you are bored at home during Covid or whatever your affliction is.

14
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:55:42 AM »
One is a bigoted racist (yes, i call him that to his face, and he agrees)

The bigoted racist is an artist with big blade earth mover. All volunteer. No one got paid. We put the project together, had state DNR sign off, donated equipment, time, manpower, materiel and we are getting it done.

That aint gonna stop me working with them. Ya, these guys might not agree with me on a bunch of things (they have terrible taste in beer, for example) but i work with em where we agree.

Especially when that same guy is the one that comes by and stays with us all night soaked to the skin in a storm in freezing weather to keep a blocked culvert open so the road dont collapse.

We know where we stand, but we help each other out. Whatcha gonna do, stand there and snicker when the guy is drowning because he dont share your ideas ? Thats a pretty cold way to live.

sidd

I'm assuming said individual doesn't "help out" people of color. And I'm assuming that while you may tell him racism is bad, it doesn't really affect you ...

His skill with an earth mover, his taste in beer and how wet and cold he got that one time are all pointless anecdotes when we use it to define his racism, as "an idea we don't share". Normalizing racism as 'an idea' or a 'viewpoint' lends credence to the narrative, that it is a valid opinion to have. And that is just insulting at its core in every imaginable way.

If someone cant show humans basic decency because of the color of their skin, one cannot be expected to value their contributions to society, no matter how altruistic they may seem

15
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:11:22 AM »
@Oren as outrageous bbr claim can be, you should have responded in a post apart. Otherwise you're taking moderator privilege to highlight your own response, while not really moderating. I say this from the greatest respect to your labor.

Bbr has been repeating the same baseless story for the 4-5 yrs I’ve been lurking and posting here. There has never been any follow up or assessment in hindsight as Oren noted. I kinda view it as misinformation (not as egregious as a denialist) that deserves to be noted as such.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 06:39:33 AM »
So to put it in layman's terms, over the next 5 days -
We are gonna have really strong persistent winds exporting a ton of ice out the Fram Strait to their untimely demise, while a massive high pressure dome over the entire arctic basin is going to provide 24 hr sunlight and heat during the time of max insolation, over the quickly moving and thinning ice?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 16, 2020, 10:56:48 PM »

So if you read my post carefully you can't just assume (jump to conclusion) that I'm talking about 65N and up because in fact i mentioned that I'm not.


Further the replies are not really surprising, in fact it's quite common to pick on a value or a word to discredit the entire post and it's meaning.


Its really weird to attack the people asking for proof for what would seem to be an outlandish claim. You claimed 45C is not uncommon in Siberia. Per the link in your own 2nd post, Oymyakon has a record high temperature of 34.6C

Even if the highest recorded temperature in Siberia was 40C, claiming it is not uncommon, means that it is common. A record, by definition, is not a common event.

Present data, back it up with references. Attacking the people asking for clarification while rambling on about car temps and the size of mosquitoes in your wife's city is completely pointless.


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 03:17:18 AM »
I presented the images that back up my claims, so I have provided the same level of evidence I ask of anyone who wants to dispute my claim.  Your accusation of double standards is false and offensive.

You presented 2 low res images of the entire Arctic area and subjectively placed an oval highlight on the 2012 image as proof of "more dispersion".

Your insistence on that being enough proof to back up your claim, is significantly more offensive, no?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 02:38:15 AM »
its a question of whether people trust my (and those who agree with me) subjective eyeball estimates, and whether anyone who disagrees can put together some convincing images to show otherwise. 

Translation - I'm not gonna present hard numbers or data to prove my point, but if someone disagrees with me, the burden of proof is on them to refute it with data.

Spoiler alert - Burden of proof is always on the person making outlandish claims. If you are so convinced about a particular point (i.e. - dispersion), presenting convincing data to prove it should not be difficult.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 10:31:49 AM »
There is continuous and incredible Fram export on all 10 days of the GFS forecast ... absolutely insane to picture the amount of ice that's gonna flow out of the Arctic, if that happens.

Curious to see how it looks on the Fram export graph that accompanies Wipneus' bi-monthly Piomas updates.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 08:19:52 AM »
Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

For reference, attached is the NSIDC concentration map for June 3rd, 2019, that matches up almost perfectly with Slater's map.


Also attached is a map from JAXA for July 21, 2012, where the sea ice extent was 7.1M sq km (exactly matching Slater's prediction for July 24, 2019). Just with a quick glance, you can see that to have 7.1M, the Hudson, Baffin and Russian coasts would have to be ice free


I somehow still haven't figured out how to embed pictures into the body of messages but I hope that helps!

*Edit - WOOT! Figured out how to embed the pics!

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2019, 10:17:14 AM »

I totally appreciate the bookeeping. It's excellent.

I don't see any analysis here, I see a daily conclusion that there is no reason to believe that sea ice levels will decline by above average amounts in the near term. The analysis behind that conclusion is opaque.

The reference to users who are predicting higher losses to come as predicting Armageddon comes across as passive aggressive.

There are some new users who might come here and look at the data and think everything is fine, especially when the person delivering the data is reinforcing that message.

I'm with Greta Thunberg. People should have appropriate fear of where we are heading. What happens from day to day is a mystery, but the decadal trend is horrible.

We can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can be grateful for the data and be critical of the accompanying editorial.

All that's well and good but there are different, specific threads to discuss them. This is a thread about past and present data and maybe gleaming patterns from it to understand what range of scenarios we may face.

Let's bottle the fake outrage - everyone here understands whats at stake. We don't need people to scare the newbies or give them undue hope. We need a place to objectively observe data and that is what this is.

And the obligatory but fully deserved, thanks Geron!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 20, 2019, 12:32:11 AM »
OK, so the snow is melting. This happens at this time of year.
Yeah, and the same happens with sea ice, and with the frost in my freezer if I unplug it.
Dumbest thing I read, your entire comment.

 Should we then close the thread and talk about football? Come on, ice is gonna melt, more or less who knows, who cares, hey its freaking normal in summer!!

How snow melts out in May and June, on continents and on ice, is relevant to what’s gonna happen to ice, be it causality or correlation, and I pay good attention to it.

Calma there buddy! I think you are reading Gerontocrat's comment with some weird lenses on.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 24, 2019, 12:58:24 AM »
Blocking highs are not something new, but their intensity and persistence in increasing. The record Greenland melt years of 2010 and 2012 were associated with strong high pressure over Greenland. Those were also bad years for the Arctic sea ice.

The coming together over the Arctic ocean of the Alaskan block and the Greenland block is particularly bad for sea ice because it creates a dipole that imports heat from the Pacific and exports ice through the Fram Strait.

Took a few hours of staring at maps before I fully grasped what you were stating. If I understand the sequence of events that are about to unfold correctly, -
  • Over the next 2-3 days, the Low near south Greenland is going to continue to pull/disperse sea ice from the Baffin and S Greenland seas. Its already been underway for ~24 hrs and the wind speed maps beautifully show this conveyor system. Meanwhile, the leads opened up over ESS/Laptev stay open as that Low lingers, winds pushing ice away from the coast.
  • Then, a massive amount of heat starts moving in late Wednesday over Greenland from its east coast, causing widespread melt and likely dipping regional sea ice over the Greenland sea to a record low for the year. This sticks around for the foreseeable future.
  • And the main event starts early on Saturday, with the system of Lows over Russia/Chukchi and the system of Highs over Alaska/Beaufort, effectively funneling all that pacific heat, moisture and salinity through the Bering strait. Like a baseball pitching machine, a clockwise and counter-clockwise rotation on either side, forcing the ball (heat) through at great speed. Okhotsk and Bering sea ice drop to near-zero before end of this month
  • Finally, this is further out but the High strengthens and expands across Alaska, N. Canada, Greenland and pretty much the entirety of Arctic over early May, pushing all that heat towards the open leads in the ESS and Laptev. The associated winds continue to push all that sea ice into the open water between Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, to the Barents, where the encroaching Atlantic gets a snack.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 23, 2019, 11:41:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Will 2019 stay as the lowest on record for the whole April?
Or will 2016 become the lowest on record on the following days?

If the GFS/Euro forecasts hold for the next 8 days, that extreme heat event is going to kill almost all Okhotsk and Bering sea ice. That's 400,000 km2 by itself, which would have us atleast 100k lower than 2016.

I say 2019 holds easy to the end of April. Worse case, we add to the lead over 2016.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 22, 2019, 06:51:39 AM »
Yikes!
... it is 8 days out, but the map shows a major low pressure system impacting the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort with +0C warmth and significant wind, waves, and likely rain as well.

'Yikes' obviously garners more sensationalist attention (whatever the purpose of that is), than a reasoned explanation of a complicated image (which bbr is also capable of providing).

27
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: April 17, 2019, 02:35:20 AM »
Even if you are an Atheist, you have to admit the embryo is human. What else would it be...an aardvark? And if you can kill a human because it is less than 9 months old, can you kill him/her because he/she is less than 6 years old? After all, such children do not think as sophisticatedly as us adults. Or should we use an IQ test where you have to score 100 or more? If that is too high, why not just 90? Or go up to 110 and just have smarter people. Where do you draw the line?

Whataboutism is the lowest form of debate. Please do not aim to disguise pointless statements as valid arguments.

An embryo is not a human. An egg is not a chicken.

I also am a lifelong vegetarian. You don’t see me forcing my opinions on why eating steak is murder, though it quite literally is. Why is life you can eat not as valuable as other life? Killing a puppy is bad but killing a baby cow for veal is an industry.

This whole topic reeks of brain-washed hypocrisy.

28
I will agree that climate change is likely to increase precipitation, and consequently flood potential.  However, increased precipitation does not correlate with storm severity.  While the severity of storms is expected to continue its declining trend, rainfall associated with these storms is expected to continue on its upward trajectory.

Why are you like this? I know that you are aware that you are just making baseless, circuitous arguments with the sole purpose of disrupting threads.

This is a thread about ‘weird weather and anecdotal stories about climate change’ - not an avenue to explore why your personal feelings on the severity of storms are more valid than those of researchers and risk assessors who study this topic daily.

Stop mucking things up or go find a different forum to troll. Some issues are more important than your perverse need for entertainment.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 05, 2019, 08:58:11 PM »

Perhaps if it was rocket science, you would be better equipped to handle the issue.  No one is comparing area and volume directly.  The issue is percent lost, which is unit-less.  In this case, the percent area and volume lost can be compared directly.  Having a thickness of zero is only applicable in abstract mathematics, not real world physics.

Ok let’s talk real world -
Arctic extent peaks in late Feb/early March (see Jaxa/nsidc/gerontocrat’s daily update)
Arctic VOLUME peaks in late April/early May (see Piomas thread)

For the next 2 months, Extent will decrease by 10-20% while Volume will increase by 10-20%

Using your own arguments, percentages to define the change and ‘factual elementary mathematics’, volume doesn’t just decrease more when extent decereases (your hypothesis), it actually increases over the given time frame.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 05, 2019, 04:02:06 PM »
What is so difficult to understand?  Yes, volume lost is greater than area, due to thickness.  Unless thickness remains unchanged over the course of decreasing area, volume must decrease to a greater extent.  This is not rocket science, but elementary mathematics, which you dismiss as nonfactual.  May I remind you that volume equals length x height x depth.  If the length x height decreases by a combined 50% (30% each), and depth decreases by a corresponding 30%, volume will decrease by 66%.

Yes, we do not explicitly know the complete depth profile of the ice.  Hence volumetric numbers are calculated from models, which estimate an average sea ice thickness.  This is another reason why two dimensional measurements are better than three dimensional estimates.

So ... im actually a degree’d Aerospace Engineer so even if it was rocket science, I could help you with it 😝

And I am not going to continue a discussion as to why km3 is more than km2. It’s as insane as arguing that acceleration is greater than speed.

Any quantity MUST have the same units for you to be able to compare them. Saying volume is greater than extent is absolutely meaningless because extent is expressed in km2 and to compare it to a volume, km3, we would need to multiply the extent by 0 (thickness), to convert it to the same comparable units.

‘ANY’ km2 x 0 = 0.

And yes, any volume is greater than 0 volume!

31
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: December 10, 2018, 01:10:20 PM »
Why wouldn't a massive methane release plausibly cause a correspondingly horrific Greenland melt event that effectively re-seals the Arctic Ocean, and what other mechanism explains why they have always been re-sealed previously / why would this time be any different?

The Arctic methane release will cause the next Ice Age and Santa is going to move to Hudson Bay. Do you have any other hits you can play?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 11:47:03 PM »
So, to add to the discussion on the North Greenland open water event going on, I got a little bored today and started to track individual floe movements from when a large chunk broke off on July 31 to the latest image today (August 13). The event actually seems to have been re-invigorated today, despite looking like it was done 2 days ago.

Looking at the 3 images below (7-31, 8-4 & 8-13) and tracking what was the south-eastern tip of the floe (now the north-western tip), it can be seen that the tip of that floe has traveled ~80 miles and rotated ~150o clockwise in 2 weeks.

I went very low tech (using paint and the scale at the bottom of the map) and I will let people with a lot more of a technical flair for the subject chime in on what all this actually means.

P.s. - The yellow line on the bottom image is 20 miles long. The red horizontal line has 3 x 20 mile segments and the vertical has 2 x 20 miles segments (red) and what I eyeballed was about 13 miles in the yellow 20 mile segment. Hypotenuse = 80 miles. Again, uber low tech

33
I am putting Oren on ignore as well because he cites Wikipedia instead of refuting through logic and intuition, and I do not have the energy to read or engage with those kinds of posts.

Neven - I have to assume bbr2314 is trolling or intentionally disrupting sensible discussion at this point.

He repeatedly brought up the Younger Dryas as justification for his insane theories and couldn't even look up how much water was supposedly released by Lake Agassiz draining but assumed that 5000 km3 was a reasonable number when the actual number was up to 30x as much into a much lower sea level.

And instead of data and math, he wants to use 'logic and intuition'

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 30, 2018, 11:50:15 PM »
July 30 AMSR2 data still coming in on Earthview but Beaufort is absolutely getting smashed right now.

Attached a gif showing the region from July 28-30

(Click to play)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2018, 05:27:44 AM »
“It is getting interesting.”

“Interesting” - is that what you call it when you reach the top of roller coaster, head down the slope at high speed, only to see that ahead of you there is no track?! - that it has been torn down!

As current volume trends continue, we are looking at the first ice free arctic September in 2022-23 plus or minus a few years. Subtract a year for breaking through the 1 million square kilometer “ice free” level.

After that, the wheels come off and we enter free fall. The atmospheric and oceanic circulations are already changing in major ways. Soon that will be dramatic. Not long after that the conditions will be properly described as extreme. And then to use your word - things get “exciting”.

Sadly, I am going to get to live long enough to see us all the way through to a year round ice free arctic. I am not looking forward to that, or to the inevitable droughts, pandemics, deluges, wars, disease, and climate catastrophes that will come with it.

I am only thankful that I will not live long enough to see an ice free Greenland.

I fully expect to die in the foregoing disasters long before then.

Sam

This is a forum about the live and historic condition of the Arctic sea ice, the factors that influence it and a discussion of the science behind it all. So yes, given current conditions, it is undoubtedly getting 'interesting'.

Please take your fake concern and melodrama elsewhere. Everyone here understands the implications of an ice-free Arctic. No one is cheer-leading it and there is no value to your insinuations otherwise.

Viggy

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2018, 11:47:14 AM »
Thanks Geron!

They also have a great 10 day ice concentration map that I like to keep tabs on.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions/concentration-map-last-10-days.html

Click image to play

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2018, 11:34:08 AM »
Canadian Ice Service's daily maps definitely shows all that Hudson Bay sea ice still there.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions.html


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: September Predictions Challenge
« on: June 12, 2018, 11:03:26 PM »
Chalk it up to me being an eternal pessimist but here goes literally nothing -
JAXA - New record, Very High (id like to vote High but the fact that there isn't a 1 bin out on the lower end leads me to think I should just commit to it)
NSIDC - 2.75 - 3.25, High (Given that we are 2 prediction bands below the previous low, I'll hedge with a sensible High bet here)

Win (Lose) big or go home!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 10:36:38 AM »
To those wondering how come extent losses are so low when so much is happening around the arctic (besides the obvious explanation that when extent is low to begin with there is less easy ice that can be spectacularly lost), a look at Uni Bremen's Chukchi/Beaufort map gives an answer. The last 3 days show strong dispersion southward at the ice front. Wipneus' regional AMSR2 area charts help quantify the effect.
CLICK to animate.

I'm imagining that the amount of energy to reverse the Beaufort Gyre (even locally) and the amount of heat generated as a result of it, must be quite enormous?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 06, 2018, 09:40:53 PM »
Long time lurker, first time poster!

Alaska Wildland Fire Info on the Pt Hope Fire.
https://akfireinfo.com/2018/06/04/smokejumpers-enroute-to-2000-acre-tundra-fire-near-point-hope/


Exploded to 2000 acres in a single day

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