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Messages - Rodius

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 11:46:38 PM »
Government model suggests U.S. COVID-19 cases could be approaching 100 Million

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/26/npr-government-model-suggests-u-s-covid-19-cases-could-be-approaching-100-million

The mass murder to reach a temporary relief from herd immunity would be a breath of fresh air until the immunity wears off or a mutated form begins the process again.

I don't understand why people think herd immunity means this ends.... it doesn't stop the virus, it just changes and it begins again.

I also am not understanding why people think Covid will cease to be a problem within five years, even with a vaccine. The mutation rate via other species is, to me anyway, frighteningly fast.
We found the mink variety already, unless that is just really terrible luck, this virus is not going to leave us to the old normal ever again.

We will end up with Covid only hospitals eventually and the training of nurses and doctors will still take years to catch up with the patient numbers.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 29, 2020, 05:07:04 AM »
A good article about the challenges the Victorian Govt, Australia, had during the second wave in Melbourne.

In essence, the right wing Murdoch media attacked him throughout the event, lied, made false claims and wanted the economy opened up the entire time.

Worth a read.

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/11/27/how-dictator-dan-defied-a-dangerous-murdoch-media-and-led-australia-to-covid-victory/

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 27, 2020, 11:35:53 PM »


Drugs Hyped as Coronavirus Treatment Linked to Psychiatric Disorders, Says EU Agency
https://www.politico.eu/article/drugs-hyped-as-coronavirus-treatment-linked-to-psychiatric-disorders-says-ema/amp/

Chloroquine and a related compound, hydroxychloroquine, have been associated with cases of psychiatric disturbances and suicidal behavior after being given to COVID-19 patients, warned the EU’s drug regulator today.

My first wife and I went to Africa for three months and she used Chloroquine for her antimalarial drug.
I used Doxi.

Before we left we both trialed Choroquine because the doctor said it is best to find out about side effects before leaving.
I took it and I became extremely angry and almost bashed a co-worker. I am not an angry person, never have been barring that two week period, but on that drug, I had some seriously awful anger problems which taught me a lot about how people can have anger problems and how they can lose control. I stopped taking the drug, the anger left me forever... which I great.

My wife had no side effects..... until we got to Africa.
In the first month, she went from weird dreams to full on hallucinations and extremely erratic behavior. She was full on crazy, and I could tell many stories about the entire experience. It took me three weeks to convince her to stop taking the drug, and when she did, the side effects never left her. This drug is, in no small part, the reason that marriage ended. She never really recovered mentally or emotionally from using that drug for 10 weeks way back in 1999.

This is not an uncommon story and I seriously wonder how the hell such a shit drug with such terrible side effects has lasted so bloody long in circulation. It shouldn't ever be used.... ever.

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 24, 2020, 02:32:56 AM »
The origin of the virus is actually quite important.  Not just politically, but also in tracking the mutations of the virus, and the outward spread, etc etc etc.

The country that released this virus is also blocking access of foreign reporters, so it's very difficult to get any information on what is actually happening in China right now.

Not true. I just read a report by a Dutch journalist about her quarantine experiences upon entry into the country:
https://www.trouw.nl/buitenland/quarantaine-werkt-ze-zouden-het-in-nederland-eens-moeten-proberen~b5d5ec87/

And "released" ??

But origins are interesting. I saw a report that this virus had been in Italy since September.

Just to double down on the word released..... it is not released.

While the origin of the virus matters, it isn't for political reasons as you infer. Politics should be done to reduce the case numbers, manage the event, and bring it to a point of relative control. China has done that.... and the places that should have done it and had the resources to do it, failed because of politics.

The science is tracking the mutations backward, and it is beginning to look like it didn't start in China, but that has yet to be determined. I wonder how quiet the noise will be if it is determined that it started somewhere in Europe?

And tracking mutations moving forward matters, look at the mink situation, and don't kid yourself into thinking that was a fluke. That will happen repeatedly most likely.

So yeah, tracking it matters a lot and it is happening in a good way.
The politics of this situation is abysmal and has allowed this virus to remain with us forever.
And people will still talk blame......

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 23, 2020, 01:18:47 PM »
The Covid-19 virus had been active in Italy months before it was first officially detected, new research has found, raising further questions about the true origins, extent and actual duration of the ongoing pandemic. "This study shows an unexpected very early circulation
of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals in Italy several months before the first patient was identified"

The new study, conducted by scientists with Milan Institute of Cancer and the University of Siena, was published this week by the Tumori Journal. The research is based on the analysis of blood samples from 959 people, collected during lung cancer screening tests conducted between September 2019 and March 2020.

More than 11 percent of the tested – 111 people – turned out to have had coronavirus-specific antibodies. All the tested people were asymptomatic and were not showing any signs of the disease. Some 23 of the positive results date back to September 2019, suggesting that the virus was actually present in the country as early as during last summer (summer 2019) – some six months before the pandemic ‘began’ and ‘reached’ Italy.

Paper attached.(paywalled)

"Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy"
by Apolone et al.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0300891620974755

Expected reaction from China: it's the italians started it!

Otoh, Chinese authorities have been accused for coverups regarding the start of C19, where it actually started in China. There were 'disappearings' of whistle-blowing doctors, jailing of critical journalists, etc, so the corona might have been under the radar in China for a long time until the outbreak in Wuhan in Dec.-19

The blame game is stupid.
I have never been a fan of assigning blame.... it is better, in my mind anyway, if the cause it found, the lesson learned, and a fix applied.
Who really cares where it started, it makes absolutely no difference to the problem and any country in the world can start a pandemic.

And assuming it started in China, a country with a huge percentage of the human population, the chances are it would begin there or India anyway.
And why does it even matter anyway?

Politics is really pissing me off lately.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 22, 2020, 11:59:15 PM »
The US has a hospital system on the verge of collapse, people are going hungry there, political leaders ignoring the problem and far too many people still think this is just a flu.

In Egypt, revolution was sparked by increasing bread prices that caused hunger...... the US is not special, if they refuse to deal with the virus and the consequences, don't be surprised to see the country self destruct within six months.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
Adelaide, Australia

5500 people in isolation.
Case numbers increase a little to 26.
Mask wearing required everywhere.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/covid-sa-worrying-detail-cluster-grows-with-5000-isolated-002709908.html

Melbourne
No cases for weeks, no deaths for weeks.
Masks still required but about to ease that, which is great given the weather is heating up and wearing a mask in 34C temps a few days ago is not fun so our trip out was quick.... Although masks are not required while bike riding, is not not nice having to put it on to do shopping while hot from temp and from exercise.
We will be back to normalish in the coming week.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 19, 2020, 03:55:16 AM »
Adelaide, Australia.

The number of people in isolation is now 3200 with 12000 tests per day being done.
23 locally acquired cases with 17 suspected.

The Govt Premier has said that the lessons from Melbourne and other regions around the world that keep the virus at bay have been learned and applied to their situation.

BBR can talk fat people being the reason for the spread, but in Australia, there are plenty of fat people yet the virus is contained through... surprise, surprise... appropriate lockdowns, mask wearing by over 95% of the population, social distancing, a truck load of testing and contact tracing.

It worked in Melbourne, and we are seeing Adelaide responding based on the lessons learned from inaction and indecision.


https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-south-australia-new-suspected-cases-emerge-002146091.html

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 16, 2020, 02:33:50 AM »
I know Australia is small time stuff compared to the big outbreaks in Europe and the US, but it is interesting to stay in touch with small outbreaks and how they are managed and the results from them.
EG -  Melbourne had a small 20 person outbreak that morphed into a nightmare from a few mistakes, mismanagement of Federal Aged Care facilities and just plain bad luck.

This time it is Adelaide, South Australia.

Currently this one is at 17 cases that appears to have started in a quarantine worker. She caught it, gave it to her family who then spread it around even more. It appears that Covid may have been spreading around for at least one week, so the expectation is there will be more cases to come.

The response in Adelaide is to lock down the schools and workplaces immediately to allow testing, tracing and quarentines for at least two weeks.
States have a mixed approach from closing borders from South Australia to accessing people on a case by case basis. There isn't a unified approach in the regard.... which gives me the feeling this is a chance for Covid is sneak around the country if luck is against us (it normally is here lol)

I will update this situation in a few days.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54954923

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 07, 2020, 05:22:13 AM »
Concerning the mink outbreak in Denmark.

The only way to stop the mink strain would be to eliminate it from Demark while not letting anyone in or out during the elimination process.

I assume the new strain can travel in the same way as Covid-19, which essentially means spreading without symptoms.
Effectively speaking, unless that shut the borders and assuming the new strain hasn't already left Denmark, this new strain will do what Covid 19 has done.....

This event is the one I was most concerned about and means Covid is here to stay for good regardless of what we  do.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 03:53:27 AM »
Melbourne has gone six days straight with zero cases..... still lots of testing going on.

Australia is now like New Zealand.
Now we can sort of go back to normalish while we wait for another round of Covid.

12
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 04, 2020, 10:22:40 AM »
Good morning.

This was posted by Alexander555 in the COVID-19 thread:
(bolding by me)
"We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed[sic]"

This was allowed to stand . . . . . . .
But I cannot stand it being allowed to stand as someone who has posted in the George Floyd thread and stands firmly with the oppressed. I'd thought that I was not alone.

If this still stands tomorrow, I'll make a stand and will peacefully protest by not participating for a while. If I can find the motivation again.

kassy I believe that you are the moderator of the COVID-19 thread. Your level of morality and justice shines through in your moderating acts. I find it shocking that you think that the quoted sentence is okay on this forum. In this way YOU select the forummembers. The moaners and flames stay and the silent good ones leave. This has nothing to do with my appreciation of the other efforts you put in as moderator and contributor. I don't think that you're bad as a person, nothing like that is intended.

See how a couple of emotionally- and personality-challenged members are taking up so much of your time (and ours) and effort and lower the general tone, readbility and quality of the forum by doing that. When someone is on a third try, I would be much harder on them and not allow any transgressions or it is into the corner again. Why not ask Neven for help with moderating issues? He's experienced here and you could learn from him.

Without naming them as trolls specifically (but I believe they are, difficult to explain here), their behaviour is very succesfull in destabilising the site and dragging the fiends-feelings down; invoking emotions and people taking sides and more.

I'm still disgusted by Alexander's post.

+1 on that sentence being allowed to remain.
I said nothing mostly because I thought it would be removed for a number of reasons.

The blatant hate speech that is happening in the Covid thread is ridiculous.
It seems okay to throw Nazi around for reasons that don't make sense.... and it is the same people doing it after they were told to stop it.

Several people are baiting others, the rubbish not just individuals but the entire forum should their opinions be pushed back on with evidence.... and their idea of evidence comes from far right sources and Murdock media (a well-known political influencer,  climate denier and Covid hoax promoter and Non-White hater)

Normally it is okay to let things slip, it exposes the haters of the world to see them rant, but when is enough, enough?

A few members need to be banned, they are only here to argue their unbackable opinions and run down others while trying to make themselves look like some sort of genius or something and play victim along the way.

The hate talk is becoming a derailing factor in the Covid thread in particular. If those people want to talk politics, take it elsewhere.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 05:45:16 AM »
You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

Can you be specific in what you mean so replies can be given?

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:22:57 AM »

Iets face the facts, George Floyed died on the 25th of May. 14 days later the 2th wave starts in the US. And where did they had a 2th wave like that in the NH in summer 

The 2nd wave in the US occurred in AZ, FL, LA, MS, etc. ...  i.e. the US South where hot humid weather forces everyone inside to air-conditioning.

The Midwest and Northeast had declining cases during the summer. The states of MN, WI, NY, IL all declined. All had large BLM rallies. All rallies had masks mandated by peer pressure, essentially.

Outdoor mass gatherings while wearing masks are riskier than staying home alone, but are much safer than indoor dining and bars. In the South, all the Trumpers, GOPers, and COVID deniers came out of their isolation and went to indoor dining and bars. They spread COVID far and wide during the summer. BLM rallies occurred in the South, but they were not large, did not last long (too hot), all participants were near 100% masked, and did not spread COVID.

Your pouty political spin on BLM as the cause of COVID spread is roundly refuted by the facts on the ground.

Melbourne had a similar thing happen.
Just before the outbreak here there were protests concerning BLM with a strong focus on Indigenous rights.
Most people wore masks and did social distancing, it was really great to see.
Anyway.... a couple of weeks later the outbreak happened and Murdoch media blamed the marches for it.
Science leaps it and proves without a doubt that nobody from the BLM marches even had Covid and the tracing of DNA didn't lead back to anyone in the protests.
It was a Murpdoch/political motive to blame non-White people for the outbreak.

Ironically, it turns out it was several White people who set the outbreak off... some knew they were sick, the others not. But not a peep about their skin color and the Murdoch media ran the articles blaming the protests for weeks after it was shown to be completely untrue.

But, the truth doesn't matter, those who wanted to blame non-White people were convinced and decided that anything against their thinking was just a conspiracy.

It is truly sad that this shit just keeps happening and that so many people believe it.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 03:38:53 AM »
Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.

There is a real risk for another outbreak. The structural factors that you blame (funding etc) have not changed.

Would that mean another lockdown?

I wish you guys down there all the best. But that little island state up here in the North Atlantic also got in trouble after it had suppressed the virus. See https://www.covid.is/data

The expectation is that new outbreaks will happen. It is a certainty.
The difference is next time it will be attacked harder and faster than before.

And remember that the start of the Victoria outbreak began with two super spreaders and some really bad luck.

Still, if another outbreak happens and another lockdown is required, then that is what will happen

The structural issues are still there in aged care.... but.... there has been a deep dive investigation into it and it is scathing of the Federal funding and many other disturbing things. The problem isn't not knowing what happened, it never really was, the problem is this Govt doesn't care and they set the situation up that way to begin with. They are playing the blame game, talk the good talk, and then do nothing about it.
The same has happened with the investigations into the catastrophic fires last summer... they talk, they blame, the promise, and nothing has changed at all in terms of direction, funding, support for communities.... it just doesnt arrive.

In short, the Federal politicians are screwing us over and they don't seem to care..... our State Govt has been attacked relentlessly for months over the outbreak and the response by Murdoch media while the Fed Govt gets praise in spite of the facts.

So.... yeah, there will be other outbreaks and it will be the State Govts that combat it in spite of the Federal Govt wanting an open economy. It isn't much different to the US in this respect expect out State Govts are able to do more and flip the finger to the Federal Govt while doing what needs to be done.

In short, we know this isn't the last time, so while we are getting our freedom of movement back, we will enjoy it as much as possible for as long as possible while wearing our masks and respecting the ongoing social distancing for the foreseeable future. It is a small price to pay for no to little Covid, normal hospital loads and an economy that is opening up and a restricted version of business as usual.... until next time.

I just hope it isn't Melbourne again....

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 28, 2020, 06:09:55 AM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Victoria got rid of Covid via masks, testing, tracing, and strong leadership.

The numbers started to drop before the weather started to warm up, and while I agree that it appears Covid thrives in colder weather and that it will have played one part of many in getting Covid under control in Victoria, it certainly wasn't the main reason.

Australia is not screwed, we have it under control.
Other regions of Australia get as cold as Melbourne but they didn't have outbreaks that got out of control.... their outbreaks were tested and traced out of existence.

What happened here was a combination of really bad luck with a few super spreaders and several trials of control that didn't work plus huge mismanagement of the Federally run aged care facilities. And aged care mismanagement is a big reason for the spread.... and to underline this point a bit more... Federally run aged care facilities with less funding, fewer nurses to patient rations, accounted for 100% of the deaths via Covid in Victoria.
Victorian run aged care had zero deaths.
This one thing alone highlights very strongly that managing the spread of Covid makes a massive difference and letting run wild is a terrible idea.
For some numbers.... Fed funded aged care facilities 650 +/- and Victoria funded is 190 +/-
655 old people died in federal funded aged care.... zero in Victoria funded aged care.

Also, State borders in Australia open or are restricted based on the circumstances. We also have open borders with New Zealand, who also has Covid under control through strong leadership, testing, tracing and masks when required.

Your line of thinking is just wrong in terms of herd immunity..... and herd immunity is just going to kill a lot of people, damage even more, and we don't even know how long natural immunity lasts so.... if it is only 3 months, it is just letting the virus do what it does so well.


17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 26, 2020, 06:46:49 AM »
Melbourne Update
Zero cases today, less than 5 per day (seven day average) for a week, no deaths for a week.

And on Wednesday we are effectively open again with some basic rules like masks and the number of people in shops restrictions in retail shops etc.

We will be in what we are calling Covid Normal from now on.

110 days from 700 a day to zero and open again.

We will soon be able to fly to New Zealand, travel inter state, and soon some other Covid free countries that are "local".

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 23, 2020, 05:23:07 AM »
I dont understand how anyone can say the USA has handled the pandemic well when they have so many dead people and so many cases and it is getting much worse by the say.

From the top of my head, the US has 5% of the population and 20% of the deaths. On what planet is that handling it well?

It is mind numbing having to listen to people talk about Covid as if it isn't much to worry about... it is frustrating to listen to people talk about how well the US has handled it when it has clearly screwed the entire thing up from day one.

Over and over again the same thing happens..... places that take it seriously and combat it with masks, testing and tracing have far fewer deaths than those that don't. Their economies, which seems to be the most important thing, are also doing better because the virus is taken on and vastly reduced.
The countries, like the US and Europe, who don't take all that seriously end up with many dead people, many injured people, their economies will be worse for the experience and yet... people still think those regions of the world are doing a good job.

It truly boggles my mind. What needs to happen to convince people of what is in front of their very eyes?
How many people need to die this year before those who think it isn't much, decide it is serious? 1.5 million? 2 million? Is it beyond comprehension that there will be 3 million dead by Dec 31?

I still think 2 million is a stretch, but as each days goes by, and I see the exponential growth that is happening, 2 million isn't looking like much of a stretch anymore.
But to me, I am beginning to wonder more about the people who have damaged bodies post virus and thinking that is going to be a significant challenge if Covid gets to run rampant through the US and Europe properly.

Lockdowns suck, I am in day 110 of one and it has weeks left as it is lifted slowly. It is the second time this year, but compare out 800 dead people to the multiple thousands the UK have (110 days ago Victoria had the same number as the UK), I pick what we have done over the UK every single time.

In a few weeks we will be mostly free to move around again, the economy will begin to recover somewhat and life keeps going. In Europe and the USA, I wonder what the situation will be like in 110 days doing what they are doing at the moment......

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 19, 2020, 05:09:12 AM »
On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months.

3000 km with a 7 yr old on bicycle? How long is it going to take?! Half a year??? Shouldn't they be in school?

That is school for an Australian! Australians are expected to be able to cope stuck abroad in a plague pit for the two years it takes to get a booking in the quarantine hotel. Basic training for this starts young ;)

I homeschool the kids. They are both autistic and don't deal with school at all but thrive at home.

My 12 year old is a strong rider and I am towing my 7 year old with some help from an electric motor for head wind days and moderate climbs (I will walk the steep hills, not that Oz has many). The set up I have allows me to detach the 7 year olds bike so he can ride solo every day until he gets tired, then I attach him back to my bike for the rest. He is a strong rider for his age. He comfortable does 15km to 20km every second day already.

The route is not direct, we will be weaving a little bit. I did a relatively detailed plan, it turns out it will be about 2700km.... 30km to 50km per day, slow start. I predict it will take about 90 days, give or take a week.

I nest not derail this thread, I didn't expect the response.... opps.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
While the NH goes to the Covid Crapper..... Here in Melbourne we have managed to drag the cases per day to under 6 per day.
Restrictions are finally being eased..... things like 5km travel restrictions are now 25km.
Meeting people outdoors goes from  6 to 20 people.
Masks are still mandatory.
Some retail shops are allowed to open up again with restrictions on how many customers are allowed into the shop.

Sydney is having a very small spike but they are testing and contact tracing the crap out of it, so I don't expect that to progress far.

The weather is warming up nicely, which is becoming an obvious advantage in the containment of Covid.

Australia is setting up a system that allows people to travel inter-state again. Borders have been closed for a while to prevent the spread.
The most likely concept they have come up with, and is likely to be used, is to give each State a color code with rules for crossing borders.
Green - almost no Covid. Only require a temp check when crossing
Blue - some Covid at slightly concerning levels. Temp check and testing on the spot.
Red - Covid problem. 5 day isolation then test on day five.

New Zealand and Australia have begun air travel again, but not to Victoria/Melbourne for obvious reasons.
Sadly, 17 New Zealanders thought they would get off the international flight at Sydney then onto a flight from Sydney to Melbourne, which is not allowed under the terms that were set up. They were all caught and stopped at the airport and deport back to New Zealand.

If New Zealands insist of this type of thing, NZ will have Covid romping through their country in no time.

On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months. With the situation under control and a Govt that wants it to stay that way, this adventure will go ahead.

Europe and the US looks like a freaking mess, it is still blowing my mind that countries with wealth and resources are messing this situation so badly. I simply don't understand why.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 10, 2020, 04:15:01 AM »
An artcile posted by Vox asks "Why are Infections Rising Again in US?"

Well, obviously the amount of testing needs to be reduced even more, that will fix it.

22
Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:45:53 AM »
According to Australia, we are officically in a La Nina.

For an overview
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

For the details
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean


23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 28, 2020, 05:09:27 AM »
Melbourne Update.

We have been told there is at least three more weeks of lock down and it wont be removed until there are less than 5 cases per day over a two week period.
The attack on Covid has been led by the State Premier, which is great because our Prime Mininster, Scott Morrision, wants Melbourne opened up asap... given the levels at the moment are still higher than when this whole mess started, opening up asap would see a repeat event although maybe less worse given summer is slowly arriving.

This article goes into the path forward and the current situation
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-28/victoria-coronavirus-update-new-cases-melbourne-restrictions/12709402

Now that Covid is tamed, the politics is heating up. Opposition are claiming breaches of human rights, the private security company that was meant to stop Covid entering Australia has been found responsible for the outbreak.

As an aside, given the rest of Australia is in control, talks are moving ahead for travel bubbles between Non Victorian States and New Zealand. Victoria will be added to the list in a few months, most likely.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/25/victoria-may-be-able-to-pursue-security-company-for-cost-of-hotel-quarantine-failures

What this highlights to me is just how contagious this virus is. One source well hidden for just long enough shut down Melbourne for months, cost 766 lives and counting since July, is causing severe strain on mental health services, the economy and is basically a total mess. And that is with strong restrictions and leadership.

Melbourne is still an very good example of excellent testing and tracking.

When the US and Euro and UK reach winter and all hell has broken out, I wonder if anyone will compare the results in those regions with what happened with good management of the outbreak in Melbourne?

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 28, 2020, 02:46:31 AM »
Can someone please stop Bbr?
People post research and he puts a date beside it as if it means something.... he is trolling this thread and most of the time he doesn't front up with supporting evidence, trolls anyone who says anything outside his frame of mind and makes things personal and offensive.

Good people are leaving because of his behavior and I want to read the material others bring to the table without having to scroll through Bbr rants and raves.

When if enough, enough?

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 17, 2020, 04:56:18 AM »
We have credible information emerging from Melbourne right now that the IFR is well beyond 1%.

What's the suggestion by posters of the opinion that this virus has an IFR of 0.25 and only affects the elderly, morbid, and frail individuals?

Just open everything back up, take the masks off, and go back to work?

If you look at the Melbourne data..... 2.9% with good testing... we all know that not every case was caught.
It would be prudent to at least half that percentage.... at least but not by a lot more.

This puts the percentage of death between 1% and 1.45% in a city that has good health care that just coped with the spike.

My concern and debate isn't the percentage as such, it is more about having a death rate of 1.0% to 1.4% when things worked.
We only had 500 recorded tests cases per day at the worst stage and our hospitals were literally full. If that had doubled, which is easy to do when the virus is allowed to spread without much restrictions, that death rate would have been much higher.

That is my concern.
1% is bad but not a total disaster.... but it comes with strong restrictions to movement, only essential services and businesses being allowed to open, mask wearing and a compliant population with a State Govt prepared to do what was needed to stop the spread.

We have seen what happened in Italy, New York and other places. But those are relatively small scale as well when resources can be brought in from elsewhere to help out.

Now, why not make what happened in small regions in the US, Spain and Italy and make it country wide?
Honestly, and I hope I am wrong, but if Covid explodes everywhere at once throughout the US and Europe without proper attention to restrictions, I cant see the death rate remaining at 1%.

I wish I could stop watching this unfold because I cant see the Northern winter being a good event at all. Europe and the US simply are not doing enough to stop the potential disaster from hitting everywhere at once.

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 16, 2020, 10:32:03 AM »
The Southern Hemisphere is soon going to be rid of COVID once and for all. Spring is coming, and COVID will almost totally disappear there (just like it didi in Europe from May). After that, vaccination comes. So the danger is almost over for the SH.

However, for the NH, the real trouble is just beginning. This will be our winter of discontent.

BTW, a CFR of 2.9% is not equal to an IFR of 2.9%. Just saying. Said it a million times but some still can not comprehend it.

CFR and IFR: I understand there is a difference. The percentage is based on known cases and deaths attributed to Covid.
There are obviously cases in Melbourne that are not recorded.
In saying that, the amount of testing that is being done is significant. I don't believe the true death rate per case is 2.9%.... but I strongly suspect it is clearly in the 1% region.

Australia and New Zealand should be rid of Covid within months, I hope. But the Southern Hemisphere includes Southern Africa and South America, neither of which will be rid of Covid in the coming year.
Aust and NZ have tiny populations as well, we barely rate a mention to be honest (a combined population of only 30 odd million).

I do think the NH is in for a hiding this winter... and I hope a vaccine happens but that wont be enough to stop Covid for years, if at all depending on how effective it is. This isn't going away anytime soon.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 16, 2020, 01:42:04 AM »
A quick Melbourne Update.

We still have a strict lockdown, mask wearing and minimal person to person contact.
The surrounding regions have had a relaxation of restrictions because there are no cases outside of Melbourne anymore.
We are sitting on about 40 cases a day and dropping fast, with a view to restrictions be relaxed in the coming week or two.

As I have mentioned before, Melbourne has been tested a lot, so the numbers of people infected, while not perfect, is relatively good as a gauge on events.

I have been using World o Meters to get these numbers.
I have taken the last 45 days worth of stats on Cases, deaths and percentage of deaths. 45 days is about the span of the virus I think so I figure this is a reasonable representation of what actually happens in terms of a region that gets a decent hit where hospitals barely held it together and testing was very high.

Average Number over the last 45 days are:
Cases: 13620
Deaths: 395
Percentage chance of death: 2.9%

Even if you double the case numbers, it is still a reasonably high death rate for a modern city with very good health care.

We held it together and that is what happened..... with the Northern Hemisphere losing its grip and having second waves in multiple regions, and the US is basically becoming out of control (the stats for the US are a joke now), I dread watching the death rate spike upwards should the winter theory of increased numbers comes true.

Even when Melbourne escapes these tight restrictions, I can't see a situation where things will get back to what it was pre Covid.


28
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 12, 2020, 11:33:25 AM »
glenn, I started reading that as if it was your personal story and started to get fired-up with all kinds of questions popping up in my mind :).
Perhaps better to put the link near the top?

When the western USA fires are over, a seemless take-over by eastern Australia fires is on the boards. Imagine living there and knowing that it will be coming again and again and with an ever increasing likelyhood of more extreme fires and new phenomena. Until the trees are all dead and burned up. The damage of all the GHG released will only temporarily be offset by the released aerosols imo.

I live in Eastern Australia.
And it is a situation where the fire season starts and ends earlier every year.
It also involves, on average, bigger and harder to control fires that keep burning more and more. Last summer was the worst ever and it was the worst ever not all that many years ago.
Thankfully, this year might be a normal year (whatever that means).

BUT.... the worst part of it all is the Govt ignoring climate change. They keep talking about better funding for the fire services but it isn't enough.
Last year they ignored ex fire cheifs and scientists who predicted and told them that the coming summer had strong potential to be the worst ever.... and the Govt wouldn't even have a meeting with them.
Volunteer fire fighters are giving up because it takes up too much time with no income and no true support from the Govt. And as volunteer fire fighters reduce in numbers, there is a refusal to bring in more professionals to do the job.

It makes me sick just thinking about it.

This year we have had plenty of rain, which would normally be a good thing, but here, it means heaps fo grass growth and vegetation will grow, even in the fire affected areas from last summer. The problem is it all dries out and provides fuel for the fires.
Those burnt out areas that people say wont burn again this year are wrong..... those regions will have grass growing like crazy and grass burns fast and moves faster than bush fires.

There is no good news here... it is just going to keep getting worse with no reason to see any improvement in the near future.

And I look at California and from what I see there, they are not exactly taking the right action either.

I keep thinking that at some point the public will demand action.... but I think what is happening it the public are used to the events and live with it until their town or, eventually, parts of cities begin to burn down.... maybe then something will happen.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 04:51:37 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!

Sorry about the late forecast, but Nullschool is completely messed up today. You'll see what I mean when you open this animation...  :'(

I like these graphics but I am not sure what there is to learn by just watching them because there is nothing to compare it too.

For example.... if the prediction graphic (5 days ahead) had a graphic beside it showing what ended up happening, then a comparison could be made on accuracy, predicted events compared to what happened and so on.

I'm not saying to do that (although that would be great), and I do like watching them as well, I just keep wondering what happened compared to what was predicted so I can figure out if the predictions are worth watching.

I am not sure I am making sense.

30
I see how it would be a bandaid but why would it be a disaster?

Disaster explanation.

Homelessness is not just not having a home.
It is typically something that has happened to the person, it could be as simple as losing a job and not paying the rent, to addictions, mental health, family abuse, family violence and so on.
Normally, when people end up on the street, it is common to use alcohol or drugs as a means to cope/forget how shit life is.
Then the emotional issues come, mental health issues and physical issues that comes from lack of sleep, weather exposure and generally it is a tough situation.

The answer to homelessness is not as simple as giving homeless people a temporary roof over their head.
So..... should hotels open their kind doors to homeless people, for a short time they have a roof, it would be good for a while, but always hanging over your head is the temporary part. It isn't as beneficial as one might think.

So, even if they have shelter, they still don't have money, health, security, food etc. And soon enough they will be told to leave and return to the streets, probably by force.

And suddenly, these people are on the streets again with the shock factor of returning there added to it.

For the homeless, it would more likely be counter productive.
If we want homeless to be fixed, given them the money they need to self care and build their own life without the temporary bullshit of a hotel room for a short time.

That is the disaster.

Homeless people don't want temporary help, they want a permanent solution. Anything less is just making it worse.

31
We don’t have homes for them, but we have 70% vacancies in large hotels.  The vacant homes that do exist would obviously be best suited to shelter the homeless, but often homeless couldn’t afford to pay the bills for a house.  The hotel rooms already have heat and electricity and water.

So you would propose leaving these rooms vacant and heated and powered and just tell the homeless to wait for a home to be built for them? 

No, we need to give the homeless a temporary shelter in these hotels; the rooms are not small and the homeless can self isolate in the vacant rooms.

While I understand the sentiment..... it isn't going to happen.
Society simply doesn't care enough about the homeless to do anything about it until there are too many homeless people glittering up the streets..... then the homeless get moved away to somewhere else.

The will isn't there at the moment.
And even if they filled the hotels up, they are still homeless, it is a temporary bandaide at best and total disaster for all involved at worst.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 02, 2020, 02:20:14 AM »
@BBR I hope that my posts do not keep you shackled to your anxieties and fears, but I am merely delivering the message that this virus is extremely dangerous, even if the IFR is "only" 1%.

We still cannot even buy N95 Masks, and this is a droplet spread virus that floats in the air for hours, with a massive R0 value.

Many Americans are "trying to get back to normal", and we all know how well that worked out last month.

The dystopian reality is here, whether we choose to ignore it or not is our own personal decision.

??? US cases are falling, I have plenty of N95 masks because I bought them in January. Seeing as you were not prepared for the virus to begin with, why would you be more knowledgeable on the back-end? LOL


US cases started falling as soon as the data was removed from the CDC as per Trump....... or is the reduced testing?
Hey, if you don't test, it isn't there......

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:14:35 AM »
August 27-31.

August 1-31 (fast).

2019.

Thank you for doing these..... they are really good and help see the events unfolding. I sometimes share them to people who don't know what is happening and they are very helpful.

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 01, 2020, 02:34:55 AM »
1) Are you seriously implying Argentina has "lots of slums"? They have a very high GDP.
I’ve been many times in Buenos Aires for family reasons, and you’d be surprised. Medium-high class live in militarized suburbia called “countries” or live in well policed neighborhoods like Palermo. The villas in the province of Buenos Aires, especially close to the capital, are of extreme misery. In intersections cars don’t stop in the red lights afraid of carjacking, so the ones that end up stopping, just in case, are the one with green light. It’s very ”funny”.

Anyway, Argentina became Brazil a few crises ago.
But is that the whole country or just BA? I do believe you, but I think Melbourne has similar "bad" areas (not like Argentina, but where social distancing and real quarantines are unfeasible).

Melbourne has nowhere that cant be feasibly lock down. There are no true slums... at worst there are public housing estates and even those are fairly good compared to slums.

Oddly enough, the people who risk screwing up the efforts in Melbourne are people in the rich suburbs, are White and over 50.
Just this Saturday, with a major lock down in place, thousands of those types of people went to the beach to sunbathe with out (edit) masks.
The thing that pisses me off the most is the police did absolutely nothing about it yet it was easy to do a forced lockdown of two public housing estates in the beginning of the second outbreak (while leaving the private tower block right next door alone).

You cant blame what has happened on migrants or poor people.... it is becoming tiring explaining your wrong thinking away while you persist with it.


It is quite simple.... BA hasn't got a lock down that works because it cant do it with the slums they have.
Melbourne is a very good city, no slums but poor areas and working class areas, just like every city. The second wave was caused by rich white people ignoring rules that lead to infecting security guards who are working class. The rich side got away lightly while the working class got hit hard which led to the working people who work in aged care for the Federal Govt spreading it into the aged care facilities... oddly, the Govt who runs those places is hiding behind a blame game toward the State Govt who also runs aged care but those ones have stricter rules so remained mostly unaffected.

Keep going with Melbourne, at some point you will learn that your thinking of our situation is wrong and change your mind.... or just persist with wrong thought.

If you can name the areas you think Melbourne cant effectively lock down, name them so I can check them out. If it is close, I will even ride there and take photos for you in the next day or two.

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 31, 2020, 02:33:00 PM »
Can you imagine being on hard lockdown for six months or whatever it has been now, seeing this graph, and then reading comments online that "you didn't do enough" or whatever? I would lose my mind.

This is Argentina, btw. Their death toll is probably about to explode substantially further.



Maybe you need to understand the differences between the quarentine conditions, the conditions people live (lots of tight-nit slums in Argentina, how do you social distance in those conditions?) in in different places, and other factors.

Also, when 87% of activities are back to normal, it is difficult to see that being called a quarentine that is effective.....

So, no, they haven't done the job properly, so the virus can do what the virus can do. And not doing it properly is not a criticism of Argentina, many factors are against them.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/11/c_139280621.htm

Not everyone can live in cities like New York or Melbourne where a quarentine can effectively be done.

Here is a photo of one slum of many in Argentina, then explain how a quartentine can be effective on a large scale in those conditions?

1) Are you seriously implying Argentina has "lots of slums"? They have a very high GDP. They may have a few slums (Australia does too, have you seen the towns the Aboriginals have been confined to in the Outback?), but every country does. From what I understand, the virus has been spreading like wildfire within Melbourne's immigrant communities and the same has happened in Singapore and Qatar.

2) The quarantine in NYC was NOT effective, summertime was, we had 27.1K excess deaths here, I don't understand the narrative now being pushed that NYC's quarantine was effective when it did very little to curb the pandemic here.

Are you calling 87% of normal activity an effective lock down?

BA has huge slums.
https://www.habitatforhumanity.org.uk/country/argentina/#:~:text=The%202010%20Census&text=2%20million%20people%20live%20in,concentrated%20in%20that%20urban%20zone.

The virus doesn't need to be everywhere to get everywhere, it just needs to a place to hide and move around from there. There are many poverty stricken regions in BA, the city is famous for it.
Melbourne has nothing like that, and neither does NYC.

GDP is a terrible measure for living conditions of the masses.

Not sure why me seeing Aboriginal communities in the outback makes any difference to my point.
But, just as an FYI, I have.
I have also spent five months in Southern Africa assisting where I could in terrible slums that shouldn't exist. I can also state that those regions of Africa have rampant Covid problems, it isn't measured or reported, but the locals are well aware of it. It is not good at all... but that is anecdotal. I lived in Samoa for 2 years in a village, a different type of poverty, but if Covid reaches Samoa, I already know that country wont cope well at all. So, I have a fair understanding of slums, what the look like, smell like, and how people survive in them. Does that help clear that question up???

Not all countries have terrible slums, and some countries have much worse than others, and some cities, BA being one of them, has big ones that allow Covid to thrive. Argentina has a problem because they are not in a lockdown that works because of these surrounding issues. It isn't weird or unusual, it is perfectly understandable given their situation.
They are trying, but it isn't enough of a lock down to do the job it is meant to do.

Melbourne had its outbreak begin from a traveller, White Australian. Who passed it on to workers who were also White Australian and some were people born overseas but are citizens and residents (they are Australian).
Some of those workers have large families who go to churches that are large, who mingle between extended family a lot, and that is basically how it took off. It wasn't poverty related, it wasn't because they were migrants, it was people doing their job and making mistakes.
You don't see rich people putting their hands up for security work in infectious hotels, do you?
West Melbourne (I am smack in the middle of it) is where these workers mostly lived and mingled, hence that is the area that is hardest hit.
It isn't a poor area, is it working class and basic, but people have shelter, food and security. Melbourne doesn't have slums, not like in poor countries, not even close to it.

The regions you mention Aboriginal people (First Nation People is the correct term, aboringial is wrong) have had terrible things done to them by Europeans and is not relevant to this topic. Oddly enough, they are doing quite well in terms of keeping Covid out entirely because they isolated early and kept it that way. But the First Nation People don't have slums in cities like BA has slums. Your comparison is not like for like.... not even close.




36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 31, 2020, 02:09:17 PM »
Quarantine in NYC was effective but very late. That's all.
I disagree, quarantine was not effective here, we attained herd immunity and thereafter the curve dropped. Quarantine was implemented after the caseload here had already reached the peak of Farr's Law.

Can you show the research that supports that statement of NYC herd immunity?

37
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 31, 2020, 08:17:00 AM »
I like this version.....


38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 31, 2020, 02:44:21 AM »
Can you imagine being on hard lockdown for six months or whatever it has been now, seeing this graph, and then reading comments online that "you didn't do enough" or whatever? I would lose my mind.

This is Argentina, btw. Their death toll is probably about to explode substantially further.



Maybe you need to understand the differences between the quarentine conditions, the conditions people live (lots of tight-nit slums in Argentina, how do you social distance in those conditions?) in in different places, and other factors.

Also, when 87% of activities are back to normal, it is difficult to see that being called a quarentine that is effective.....

So, no, they haven't done the job properly, so the virus can do what the virus can do. And not doing it properly is not a criticism of Argentina, many factors are against them.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/11/c_139280621.htm

Not everyone can live in cities like New York or Melbourne where a quarentine can effectively be done.

Here is a photo of one slum of many in Argentina, then explain how a quartentine can be effective on a large scale in those conditions?

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 30, 2020, 01:36:51 PM »

I am still quite sure that there is a strong seasonality. If I am right, then winter is going to see more and more measures to no avail, as R will stay above 1 despite all.

R can be reduced drastically with lock downs. It isn't uncontrollable, but it requires discipline from a large majority of people in the society.

If the measures are half done, the virus will take off again until the lock downs are put in place for at least four weeks just to get the numbers down to low levels and up to eight weeks to control it properly again.

It is almost certainly not possible in the US anymore, Europe looks like it isn't going to happen easily, in fact, this virus isn't going anywhere now so it will come and go in waves for as long as it can.

Also, while lockdowns work to stop the virus, people really don't cope well with them. Melbourne has done quite well so far, but the cracks are starting to appear. On Saturday the weather was nice and people went to the beaches in reasonable large numbers and half of them weren't wearing a mask. That alone might spark mini outbreaks and prolong the lockdown.

In the end, I suspect the answer will be multi pronged.
1 - cheap yet inaccurate testing that can be done at home.
2 - mostly open society
3 - better treatment, maybe even dedicated hospitals for Covid.
4 - financial support for those affected (the ideal in my mind is a Universal Basic Income)

IF a vacine can be made and it works for at least a few years, we might have a chance to get rid of it, but I don't think it is possible. It is too stealthy and contagious to stop. If symptoms were there while contagious we would have a decent chance, but it isn't like that.

Ultimately, we need to find a way to live with this from now on. And letting it run loose isn't an answer that will be acceptable to the general public when the deaths start piling up.

Covid isn't terrible enough to warrant mass action, but it is bad enough to be a major pain in the ass if it runs free. It sits in the middle, so it is treated half heartedly.

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 30, 2020, 02:45:48 AM »
III) Southern Hemisphere

Either is enduring the full brunt of the pandemic right now, or is in soft lockdown / hard lockdown with limited cases. Proportionately I would say most of the population (Chile, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa) is enduring the brunt of the pandemic right now, Victoria is in hard lockdown, and NZ / Uruguay are seemingly making it through to the other side of winter. With summertime around the corner and a working vaccine likely in March-May 2021 (IMO), these regions are plausibly going to avoid the full brunt of the pandemic.

Just to clarify.....
Chile, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa are not doing enough to restrict the movement of Covid and their health systems are not able to cope with as much as rich countries.

Victoria, or mostly Melbourne to be more precise, is in hard lock down, testing and contact tracing and has a handle on the outbreak. It has taken 5 weeks to get the numbers down and we have 3 or 4 weeks to go with it (it sucks, by the way).
Melbourne got to only 500 per day (5 day rolling average) at its worst and is now clocking up double digit daily numbers.
This is not the same situation as the other countries listed. In fact, it is one city that had made a few mistakes (in hindsight, at the time it seemed like the things they were doing might work, they didn't so the entire city was put in lockdown. Lesson learned, wont be repeated in Australia)

Melbourne also has a relatively good handle on the case numbers. While the case numbers will still be below the reality, it would be extremely unlikely if you could add anything more than 30% to the official numbers because the testing is so high here. Everyone who present any symptoms got tested.

SO, if ever there was a place where you wanted mostly accurate numbers of cases and deaths, Melbourne would be it.

Roughly, there have been 17,600 cases since July 1st and 480 deaths.
Or 2.7% deaths per case.... but feel free to drop that percent because not all cases were captured.
This is a city with excellent health care that everyone can access for free. A city where the health system was at break point for several weeks.
And the case numbers are dropping with the normal lag of deaths number trailing by about two weeks.

This is not just a flu.

I dare anyone to argue with the case numbers...... Melbourne has tested the hell out of the city. There is no way on earth you can times the case numbers by ten or twenty to bring down the death per case numbers down to a bad flu season.
And those deaths happened in a health system that stayed mostly intact.... and at only 500 cases per day.

I would hate to see what happens if that had doubled or became a situation that got totally out of control.

41
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 28, 2020, 03:59:18 AM »
Why is it that there are dozens of posters who have hard-ons for my posts and can recite all of my "pet theories" etc

Yet I can't remember a single contribution of any of them or even their names etc most of the time?

It is like there is a troupe of gypsies who would suck and steal all the thoughts and information from this place until there is nothing left, and then they would move on from the vacant husk, because they were never here to engage constructively to begin with.

Is it really surprising that seems to be what is now happening?

That entire comment speaks volumes about how much thought you put into what others say.... and you talk about people living in their bubbles.

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 25, 2020, 09:19:24 AM »
I asked people who doubt seasonality why R stayed around 1 in Europe even after lockdowns were lifted (vs. an original wintertime R of 2,5-3). I haven't gotten any answers. Anyway, we shall see how the NH copes this winter. And then we shall have (more) proof.

R remains around 1 because governments have left enough restrictions in place to keep it around 1.

Mass events remain prohibited. "Mass" includes the scale of the typical wedding reception, and amateur choir practice, not just concerts and sport with live audiences.
Working from home remains at hugely elevated levels.
Close contact working practices remain restricted. ...

I don't know where you live Richard, but this is definitely NOT TRUE in C. Europe. Almost noone works from home any longer, mass events up to 500 people are allowed (or even more for football matches, etc.) and almost no restrictions whatsoever.

For comparison, I show you Google mobility (recreation+workplace+transit - residential) for Germany  and Argentina. SH / winter countries have similar trends and yet R is high. NH countries are like Germany and yet R is low. Despite still being in a perpetual lockdown winter countries can not stop COVID from spreading. Explain that!

I suspect the answer to what happens in winter re Covid will be know during the NH winter.
SH winter isn't all that bad, relatively speaking, populations are small and the number of cities is small relative to the NH.

At the moment, the evidence is anecodal.

When winter is over in the NH, we will almost certainly have a solid answer to what happens during winter with Covid.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 04:52:18 AM »

Announcing to the whole Forum that you want to know the identity of another participant is inappropriate.  in my view, it's grounds for banishment.  But I'm not in charge here. 


Hmmm OK. <snipped>

Anonimity could be extremely important to people. Exposing a climate scientist could cost them their job, funding, public attention that could mean deniers targeting said person and more.

Nobody gets to tell others whether they want to remain anonymous or not.

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 21, 2020, 03:29:46 AM »
A quick update on Melbourne, Australia

We are two weeks into a very strict lockdown.

Two weeks ago there were 500 cases a day, the health care system was stretched to its limits, aged care providers were struggling with increasing numbers of cases, deaths and spread between facilities through workers. Aged Care is mostly a Federal Govt responsibility.
Deaths were at about ten per day.

Over the last week the cases per day has dropped to 250. So, unsurprisingly, the lockdown is working in that regard.
Deaths have been 15 per day, which is also unsurprising.
Aged Care is a growing nightmare and is spreading through Fed Govt funded and organized facilities. The Govt is attempting to blame the State Govt.... unfortunately for the Fed Govt, the State run facilities have only 5 cases whereas the 1000s of other old people in aged care are in Fed Govt run facilities. The obvious answer to reducing this spread would be to stop allowing employees to work in multiple facilities, but this hasn't been stopped at all. So, aged care is a growing problem still, in spite of the lock down.
Given everyone knows how the virus is spreading around, one does wonder why the Fed Govt refuses to plug such an obvious and gaping hole. They just play the blame game.... much like they do with climate change.

Mental Health is a growing problem though. Funding has been significantly increased but I am not sure money can resolve that issue. Domestic violence is up as well.

There is four weeks left of this lock down and the stresses of it are beginning to bubble up. The State Govt is well respected, the leader, Dan Andrews, is doing the job quite well with learning curves happening.

More younger people have been dying this week than before, but with the health care stresses decreasing, this should resolve itself in the coming week.

Isolation is a growing problem. Melbourne was effectively in lock down during the fires in January and February due to excessive amounts of smoke over the city... then Covid came along.

While lockdowns are a reasonable response, it isn't a long term solution for dealing with Covid. At some point, the cracks will turn into protests and displeased people. Humans are not equipped to deal with isolation on a long term basis..... so it seems clear to me that lock downs are going to become an increasingly unproductive method of controlling the virus.

Personally, I am leaning towards cheap, saliva based testing done every second day, and manage it that way with a mostly open society.

45
Quote
That would not end well so it will probably be fixed somehow.
How do you expect it to be fixed? If it is not, what do you expect the ending to be in detail?

I am not a fan of the line of fhtinking that since bad things could happen that people will resolve it before said bad things happen.

So Tom's question is a good one.

For my part, I suspect bad things are coming. The political situation globally is quite bad and escalating with unhealthy leaders with egos that need stroking are also unhelpful.
People are becoming angry, incomes are disappearing and the basics of shelter, food and security are beginning to become a problem for many more people who probably have never considered how critical those things are because it hasn't been a problem until now.

Something radical needs to happen plus luck.... when that is the combination required for things to happen I tend towards the bad things happening.

Govts are, currently, leaning towards more controls on people... it is virus based and is mostly required.... but politicians are using this situation to further their own ends.
I think we need to combat the virus as we are in countries like New Zealand but the countries who don't are using the worsening health conditions for their political advantage.

So... to me, with a virus that is just bad enough to do something radical about and a political environment that is okay with abusing power, the most likely end game within the next 1 to 5 years is a significant war, a virus that worsens in its spread, and governments that are happy to bring down harsh controlling measures on their populations.

People dislike that.... so expect a few cival uprisings in places you wouldn't usually expect.

This virus is a problem, but the really big death numbers wont come from it.

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 11, 2020, 01:50:45 AM »
...and lots of old people that are artificially being kept alive with bags full of pills every day.
Neven, we know, you didn’t need to go there. Most elderly over 80 or 85 are alive because of the bag of pills. Don’t be insensitive, please. My father died in May 17 (not Covid, just a very old person), should we feel bad because Medicine enlarged his life maybe 10 years and he got to meet two great-grandchildren?
Of course Covid has taken the life of many of those so easily, but yeah even when you have your argument to do and your argument to win, be more considerate (if you can, probably not).

+1 with this.

I recently lost my mother, also not Covid, also kept alive due to medications that allowed her to meet more grandkids and see them grow up a bit more.

The thing is this.... humans have always kept old people alive linger than they should. We are a social species, we care for each other, and it works.
Old people give us huge amounts of value in their life experience, knowledge and wisdom.... the West has forgotten this aspect of old people and it is sad.

If people can live longer because of meds, good. What a shame the West is okay with them dying before their time and find them expendable.
The West is a sick culture and it shows in abundance with the attitude of "they are old and sick so it doesn't really count".

Most other cultures are sickened about the attitude of the West towards the elderly and those who need support. While living in a Non-West culture for two years, all I heard about was how strange Westerners are and when they explained their points, I had to agree with them. This virus is exposing a gapping hole in the West in terms of lack of care for other, lack of community, and it shows just how awesfully isolated we have become.

It is not okay to be okay with old people dying before their time, meds or no meds, it doesn't matter. We do what we can, when we can, regardless of the condition of the person we are protecting.

Seriously, this thread is starting to make me sick reading, and several people here need to review their hearts because something is broken in them.

You are argue from the point of view of how bad the virus is or isn't, but to be so blatantly uncaring is just outright wrong. Is it really surprising that the West has created climate change and allows environmental destruction to happen when we cant even care about people who need help in our own backyard?

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 05, 2020, 11:51:42 AM »
A little update on Australia.

Melbourne is tracking at about 500 per day for the last five day, ranging from 350 to 725.
10 people per day are dying. Up until about one week ago all deaths were over 60. This week 2 deaths are under (40s and 30s). The 40s man was a health cop, no info has been given for the 30s person as per family request.
The hospitals are hanging in there with support from the army and other states but it is very borderline. With the 725 cases happening today, a record, people are getting nervous.
The lockdown is quite strict. Always wear a mask, retail in Melb has effectively been closed barring supermarkets, food supplies and medical places. You are meant to stay home while waiting test results but of the random door knocking to check, 800 out of 3000 were absent.... too many were at work in spite of the money being given to people to stay at home (three days waiting means the Govt gives you one weeks worth of money, no strings attached)
Because of non compliance, penalties are now in place from $2000 to $20,000.
As an aside, someone from my wife's workplace was one of those 800. Her workplace was shut for the day, deep cleaned and now testing of everyone is happening. This happens every time someone works while sick in every workplace.

Sydney is sticking with tens per day for about one month now..... up until now every case has been traceable but today that changed to 2 cases being untraceable. Because of that the city is asking anyone with any symptoms at all to get tested in an attempt to close the loop on the untrackable cases.
When Melbourne was at that stage only parts of the city we put in lockdown, it didn't work so they are trying the testing approach in Sydney.

ICU in Melbourne is full.
State borders are closed.
I have no idea how this will progress, but it isn't looking good given untrackable community transmission is rampant.... of the 725 today, 500 are unknowns at this point. This is a ratio that is about normal now.
Non urgent surgery is cancelled.
Nurses and doctors are catching it, although they suspect it is from home and not the hospital but that is not 100% clear.
Aged Care is a huge problem, it just keeps spreading between facilities and it isn't clear how it is happening. Enquiries are frantically being done.
More younger people are ending up in hospital and in ICU, I am a little surprised there hasn't been more under 50 year old deaths but that is unlikely to remain that way.... we will know in the next couple of weeks. With the hospitals still functioning, maybe young person death rates will remain low.

Melbourne is just coping with 500 per day as a 5 day average, but it is still creeping up in spite of lock down.

This situation of community transmission is what is, in my uneducated opinion, going to be the real problem for the world. If Melbourne cant handle this or contain it, then the world wont be able to stop this virus was rapid growth either.

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:19:24 AM »
My understanding of Covid is this.

1 - it has a death rate of about 0.1% to 0.3% when treated

2 - it is highly contagious

3 - when people require hospital treatment, it is for a long time. This means hospitals get filled up with high need patients quickly and cant discharge them faster than new sick people turn up. This is why it only takes relatively small numbers of cases to clog up the health care system. Unlike the flu, which has an average hospital stay of severe cases below that of Covid

Flu is about 5 days - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK63484/

Covid is about 11 days - https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-28/COVID-19-patients-have-a-long-hospital-stay-in-the-U-S-study-QRdKHnf7zi/index.html

To me, this is why Covid is a big problem. It destroys hospital systems that stop other patients that have unrelated problems to get less treatment, no treatment, or end up catching it while in hospital. With resources like doctors and nurses in short supply, and more so because they get sick, death rates increase.

4 - left untreated, Covid appears to kill more people than the flu. This means it is the intervention that is saving people and not because Covid isn't all that bad. Of course, this is highly debatable and the variables are wide, yet every city that gets hit hard from Covid also sees death rates increase in all age groups.


49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 01, 2020, 02:17:32 PM »
Given the unknowns of Covid, it pays to be on the cautious side.

There haven't been many under 50s who have died. One was a policeman, so healthy. Others haven't been obese or have any of the triggers for death from Covid. But the numbers are small.

While the complications post infection are part of the game of getting sick sometimes, we cant ignore them without having a full understanding or have enough information to know the most correct path forward.

As has been noted here, every time CV19 runs wild or gets out of hand, many extra people die or get sicker than they would have if health services were coping.
To me, that is the key.

When the flu season is very bad, more people die of the flu.
CV19 is worse than the flu, full hosiptials, inundated wards, medical services breaking and the numbers arent really all that big.

I mean, Melbourne only has 500 per day for a week and the hospital system is very strained even with help from the army and other other States. No flu season has done that here, not ever, and there are more people with the flu in a bad season than we have here at the moment..... and 500 a day is a relatively good estimate because we have tested, literally, at least 25% of the population of Melbourne in the last month alone.

If it increases (I suspect it will), our health system is going to break. Then young people will start to die, even ones with no underlying conditions. Even now, people under forty are filling up the ICU wards. And again, we only have 500 cases a day for the last week.

Melbourne has about a good a record of case numbers as is possible,  contact tracing is excellent, medical care is excellent, we are in a fairly tight lockdown for three weeks and we are struggling.

If people want to think this is nothing, can you please explain away what is happening here because the stats are relatively accurate in terms of numbers of cases because most people get tested at the slightest of symptoms plus people they live with and work with.
If this is a nothing thing, then the expectation would be that should Melbourne increase in cases per day to over 1000, then we should be just fine.

But if that happens and we have a complete break down of medical services and death rates increase in all age groups, then I think those who think this is nothing might want to reconsider their opinion against the facts as the are presented in Melbourne.

Personally, being stuck in one of the worst suburbs for case numbers, I prefer it to go away, but another side of me wants the numbers to explode to over 1000 per day for a few weeks to see what happens.... because should that happen, we will have solid information to support the events that unfold.

If it is nothing, we will be fine.
If not, those who think this is nothing need to front up with something to counter a bad result in Melbourne.

I suspect we will find out..... if next week goes over 1000 per day a few times, I don't think we will be able to bring it back in before the health system collapses.

I will give updates on what is happening in Melbourne over the coming few weeks just to keep people in touch, because I think what is happening here, should it explode, will answer a lot fo questions either way.

And whatever the result is, I will follow that... if it mostly flu like in lethality I will go with that. If it is worse, I will go with that, if it is less, same thing.

I sort of hope it gets much worse here just to get the answers we need.

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:17:15 AM »
I am unsure as to why people think CV19 isn't a big deal, or play it down or undermine the severity. Just look at Melbourne, well tested, resourced etc, we know fairly well how many cases we have and the numbers are not all that big, yet we are in trouble in the health services already. If we keep up this 600 plus day stuff for a few more days things are going to start breaking down and the death toll will begin to include people of all ages, not just the over 50s. Younger very sick CV cases do well because of the hospitals, not because the disease isn't all that bad for younger people.

Could you provide some more context wrt Melbourne? How are environmental conditions, air quality, etc? What about demographics? And what about general health, things like obesity, diabetes, metabolic health?

The environment is clean with reasonable air quality although we did have the serious bush fires in January and February that had terrible air quality for months and kept people inside a lot.

Obesity is above average compared to the world, general health is good, diabetes is normal for a first world city. We are healthier than the average person from the USA but not as healthy as Europeans, on average.

The deaths to date are mostly over 50 with some in their 40s (he was a healthy police officer who caught it while on duty). In the last week the demongraphic of people catching it is getting younger and the people going severe is getting younger as are those going to ICU.

Covid is in the aged care facilities (25% of them the last time I checked, but that will increase) so expected deaths to grow for the elderly. At the moment, young people are getting through it without death but (I cant find the article right now) there are signs CV19 is causing issues with lungs etc in young people.

CV19 is weird, it doesn't seem to harm most people much, but if it hits you hard it seems to go really hard.

Here are the demographics, I am not sure what you are looking for - https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/2GMEL

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