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Messages - kassy

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1
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 20, 2020, 10:28:01 PM »
It´s not a theory since we can see the ice there even if it is in bits.

A significant air pressure decrease in September is evident for the 1996–2014 period, which may be linked to delayed sea ice formation.

Which is mainly happening outside the core region of the graph.

2
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:15:59 AM »
Stone Age Humans Were Sleeping On Comfy Grass Beds 200,000 Years Ago

Living in a cave may not be luxurious, but the ancient inhabitants of southern Africa did their best to make their homes as snug as possible by creating soft beds out of ash and grass. According to a new study in the journal Science, this mixture allowed for a good night’s sleep as it provided soft bedding while also helping to repel insects, and was already in use some 200,000 years ago.

Previously, the oldest known use of plant bedding was from a 77,000-year-old site called Sibudu in South Africa, where researchers discovered layers of sedge interspersed with ash and medicinal plants that they believe were used as rudimentary mattresses. Yet this latest finding pushes back the date of the earliest use of bedding by over 100,000 years.

The discovery was made in Border Cave, which is also located in South Africa and is known to have been occupied intermittently from about 227,000 years ago. Using a range of microscopic and spectroscopic techniques, the study authors were able to identify grass in a layer of white ash that has been dated back to the cave’s early years of human occupation.

...

This theory is supported by the fact that the researchers were able to identify the remains of camphor leaves among the bedding. Given that this aromatic plant is still used as an insect repellent in East African bedding to this day, the study authors are fairly confident that Border Cave’s earliest tenants were indeed using plants to create comfortable, bug-free sleeping spaces.

While the act of collecting soft leaves to sleep on may not seem all that impressive, the kind of cognitive complexity that is required for this sort of innovation is generally thought to have developed in humans about 100,000 years ago. That this discovery significantly predates that threshold suggests that the potential for a sophisticated material culture was very much present at the dawn of man.

https://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/stone-age-humans-were-sleeping-on-comfy-beds-200000-years-ago/

3
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:51:25 PM »
Climate change: Earthquake 'hack' reveals scale of ocean warming

Scientists have found a clever new way of measuring ocean warming, using sound waves from undersea earthquakes.

The researchers say the "hack" works because sound travels faster in warmer water.

The team looked at sonic data from the Indian Ocean emitted by tremors over a 10-year period.

As the seas have warmed due to global heating, the scientists have seen the sound waves increase in speed.

Their new method shows the decadal warming trend in the Indian Ocean was far higher than previous estimates.

...

The deployment of around 4,000 autonomous devices called Argo floats that capture temperature information has helped enormously, but there are big gaps in our knowledge.

This is especially true in relation to what's happening in the waters deeper than 2,000m.

But now a team of researchers has developed a very different approach that exploits the fact that the speed of sound in seawater depends on temperature.

The idea was first proposed and trialled in the late 1970s using sound waves generated by scientists.

However, concerns over the impact of these sounds on marine mammals and rising costs saw the idea abandoned.

The new approach involves using the naturally produced sound waves that occur when an underwater earthquake strikes.

The scientists examined data from over 4,000 tremors that occurred in the Indian Ocean between 2004 and 2016.

The team then looked for pairs of "repeaters", earthquakes with almost identical origins and power.

By measuring how long these slow-moving signals took to travel across the waters from Indonesia to a monitoring station on the island of Diego Garcia, they were able to work out the changes in temperature for the whole of the ocean over the 10-year period.

"It takes sound waves about half an hour to travel from Sumatra to Diego Garcia," lead author Dr Wenbo Wu from the California Institute of Technology told BBC News.

"The temperature change of the deep ocean between Sumatra and Diego Garcia causes this half-hour travel time to vary by a few tenths of a second.

"Because we can measure these variations very accurately, we can infer the small changes in the average temperature of the deep ocean, in this case about a tenth of a degree."

..

The method is also quite cheap, as it uses data that's already being gathered, and is sensitive to temperatures deeper than the current restriction of 2,000m.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54193334

4
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:57:38 PM »
As with ESAS methane, nobody wants to hear about albedo, better to err on the side of least drama, hundreds of examples documented by AbruptSLR on that forum.

Thanks.

People are also not that into real simple climate science.

Paris agreement. We keep under some ´safe´ 2C level.
Safe is not actually defined so lets substitute the usual climate tipping points. Keeping the permafrost a sink has failed. Saving the arctic ice has failed. Not triggering Antarctica too etc.
And that is with current temps.

The Arctic ices ´old ice skeleton´ is clearly failing so next year might be even worse in the Central Arctic. I think this region is more vulnerable then people usually argue so we might see unprecedented losses there soon (this decade) and then we will see what Earth calculates for the budget and what the actual knock on effects are.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:59:20 PM »
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8074/record-arctic-sea-ice-loss-in-2007

This is what it looked like.

Somewhere along the 07-12 years the ice rebuilding circulation broke down. Not that much thick ice making the Beaufort round to join the pack.

I think 2007 was just a year on a continuum. Back then it looked bad but there still was a lot of ice.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:09:39 PM »
Oops fixed... (background song singing about miles lol).

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: Where will the last Arctic Sea Ice be located?
« on: September 05, 2020, 07:52:48 PM »
I voted north of Greenland/Ellesmere island but it is that general area. It could also be more towards Canada or Beaufort near there.

Essentially that means that the Central Arctic fails first and this is because it will be surrounded by ever more open water for longer during the year. The Beaufort Gyre is not putting thick ice back in so at some point it will fracture early because the old ice back bone is not there and then it will all float somewhere and melt from the sides etc.

The remnants will be near the cooler parts so Greenland Canada side.

8
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 03, 2020, 02:13:06 PM »
Not directly.

But crop failure is a complicated thing. They can fail because it is too hot and too dry.
Or you have an excellent year ended by a month of rain at harvest time which will also ruin them.
And there are many more factors depending on the type of crop.

In the BOE context the ice loss will push global temperatures up at a faster rate then methane.




9
The current policies outcome is above the the SSP2-4.5 path until 2040 and pledged is well off 2.6.
The only scenario hitting negative emissions before 2100 is 2.6 and since i am too lazy too extrapolate the blue line that just means there is 80+ years of additional damage locked in.

It´s not about giving up but maybe realizing we should do more now. This is not a thing we can leave to the market and bright new ideas to solve but we seem to have a hard time understanding that.

The IPCC never defined dangerous climate change. If you include logical things like not triggering Greenland melt we are already well within that territory.

10
The original story was an exaggeration, as explained below:

Quote
Article by CNN exaggerates study’s implications for future Greenland ice loss with “point of no return” claim

Quote
As described by the reviewers below, the CNN article also overlooks the role of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in altering the future rate of ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet as well the consequences for global sea level rise. For example, one study found that under a low-emissions scenario (RCP 2.6) the Greenland Ice Sheet will lose 8-25% of its present-day mass over the long-term, compared to a loss of 72-100% under a high-emissions scenario(RCP 8.5)[2].

Quote

However, the CNN article’s suggestion that Greenland has passed a tipping point is not well established. For example, a paper published in Nature Climate Change in 2018 by Pattyn and coauthors found that the tipping point (that is, the point where potentially irreversible change is set in motion) would be in the neighborhood of 1.5 to 2°C warming above pre-industrial[3]. We’re close, but not quite there yet.



OK, last point first. We will easily hit that because we are much too slow in our actions to curb CO2.

Then the scenarios. They range from 8% loss to 100% loss.
So we are going to lose at least a big chunk.
If we rule out both 2.6 and 8.5 then we will lose between 25-70%. So lets say 40%. That is already a calamity.

If we want to stop it melting we have to go zero carbon and then negative.

So in a very practical way it is unstoppable for the near future.




11
Would it really be such a burden to be kind to the homeless and offer them a place to live while the virus circulates around the globe and kills off 1-10% of the human population?

Why do you keep quoting such BS numbers?

Also the homeless need homes not hotel rooms.

12
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: September 01, 2020, 01:45:32 PM »
Russian Glacier In Urals Region Has Completely Melted, Scientists Say

One of the largest glaciers in Russia’s Urals region has completely melted, according to members of a research group that carried out an expedition.

The glacier known as MGU, which was 2.2 kilometers long when it was discovered in 1953, has vanished, the researchers from the Scientific Center for Arctic Studies said in an August 31 statement.

The researchers carried out their expedition from August 19 to August 28 and visited the sites of two other glaciers.

MGU was the second largest glacier by mass in the Urals polar region and its longest when it was initially discovered.

Mikhail Ivanov, one of the scientists, said a “large amount” of ice still existed when they last visited MGU in 2010.

Parts of the iceberg were still visible in photographs taken by tourists to the area in recent years, he said.

“This year, it turned out, it completely melted,” Ivanov said.

Russia’s Urals and Siberian regions have experienced unusually high temperatures in recent years that have been blamed on global warming.

https://www.rferl.org/a/30813660.html

13
So then this would be a thread of duplicates. If you add the thread where they are from people could get context.

Then people have different backgrounds so what is interesting to one person is not interesting for another.

I propose a different method:
Make documents where you collect interesting links. Post them when appropriate.

Since there are so many stickied threads already in this subforum and a whole bunch of interesting ones below we really don´t need another thread which is not directly related to things happening in the Arctic.

14
If you know much olivine you have spread out you know the boundaries of what you can draw down.

There is zero reason to worry about dropping levels to 270 PPM. We need to draw down what we put in and and whatever feedbacks we awake (degrading peatlands and such).


15
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: August 26, 2020, 11:46:33 AM »
It will kick warming up a notch. And having no ice in summer might make for some really interesting changes in the atmospheric teleconnections.

No idea what the overall effects on agriculture will be. It must already be really hard to decide which trees/winegrape varieties to plant for the next decades.


16
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 20, 2020, 02:52:23 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2346.msg282113.html#msg282113

I am surprised that the above post with "God" was allowed trough (an interesting post imo, please don't snip), but mine (which wasn't about God at all, just one mention in a list of examples) got snipped:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3189.msg275212.html#msg275212

I am confused!

kassy, will you please enlighten me? You replied to the post so have read it.
This is absolutely not meant to create another 'flame'. Just for important clarification.

Hi nanning,

all posts by people are allowed through but what happens then might require moderation action.

I think a huge part of the confusion is that you probably never saw all the replies in their ugly glory.

You only mentioned it in the starting paragraph but it was worded rather strongly. That is not a problem for me per se since it is basically just you stating your position.

What followed then was a whole flurry of posts arguing in one liners whether or not god existed. That is a BS topic for the internet in general , it was off topic for the sub forum and thread so i started cutting things.

I think that any original theory crafting should be done in The Rest anyway.


17
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: August 19, 2020, 11:22:38 PM »
The problem I have with really becoming a true Buddhist (which I will end up doing one day) is that I would have to stop thinking about all the shit that's happening to this world right now...

Yeah all that shit happening is not really helping.

The journey is more interesting then the destination. Do try some simple za zen. Just sitting around and thinking about nothing.

It is a good practice. Also thinking about nothing is really hard. You have the obvious outside influence. Technically you can shut out the more abstract worries. Then some sound will ruin that but you just start again.

Then there are things that are harder to shut out. The things that are really bugging you and that need to change. The nothing you try to think about helps you realize there is a big thing you are usually ignoring. If you want to move on to nothing that needs to be addressed.

Just start the journey.  :)

18
The forum / Re: Reading the Forum on a Computer or a Phone?
« on: August 17, 2020, 11:40:30 PM »
Is there a purpose behind this poll?

Anyway, computer only here.

I was wondering about some things.

Quote
I must admit that I "miss the old days" when one of Neven's ASIB entries led to a broad, informed discussion at a fairly low pace for several days or weeks. At that time, contributors were allowed to think between their posts.

P-Maker posted this in the Melting thread.

At the time there was less information coming but we also did not have the twitter/FB reply all the time culture.

And the general culture was different. I do love those 2014 threads where page 1 is arguing some lineair thing and on page 3 it is still going on. Things became more hectic over time with more people joining and thus the conversation got more messy.

And somewhere in there i wondered about the phones.

The poll is probably not going to be that useful but at least i can strike Post a poll to ASIF off my bucket list so there is that.  :)


19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 17, 2020, 03:58:27 PM »
Reading the last couple of posts to see if something has been posted is a common courtesy. New links can be added if they add info.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 14, 2020, 01:34:15 AM »
re 8324.

Contrast stuff people think what happens with what actually happens.

You or me posting does not make a difference. Our expert advisers saying that front line workers only needed to be tested when they had actual symptoms was BS early on. Because we knew we had transfer without symptoms early on. And also a lot of those workers worked both hospitals and jobs caring for the elderly and there was no safeguard because as a society we actually did not care.

So that killed a lot of people.

Can´t blame anyone here for that but no one is going to grill the guilty parties. Not sure if there is a next time but it might just happen again and if you want to stop that you need to change the system and you probably can´t do that just by being indignanton the internet.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 10:54:11 PM »
Kassy, i have no idea what you are trying to say here. The fact is, Neven displayed gross disregard of science, committed victim-blaming, expressed misanthropy, makes this a political issue, deliberately posts fake news, disregards the valid fear of people to become sick or die, and downplays the implications of the virus. This is what people oppose obviously.

Well that is a whole lot slander or projection.

The valid fear of dieing also is not an issue on the internet.

People should look at issues in a less emotional laden way which is something you have a bit of a problem with. It does not matter what IFR you calculate on the internet because que sera, sera. There are all kinds of other things to discuss like the actual handling of this crisis while people prefer to froth at the mouth when Donny mention HQC.

1 What you talk about on the internet does not really effect the meatworld much
2 It would probably be more interesting to see where or why the actual difference pops up and the measurement of that is not your actual allergies.


22
Science / Re: The Father Of Global Warming?
« on: August 08, 2020, 05:30:33 PM »
Broeckers take on the title:

Quote
So, for two different prizes that I won, I was introduced as "the father of global warming" because of this one lucky paper I wrote that was partially wrong, instead of being known for sixty years of science.   I once offered my students a $200 reward if they could find a previous reference to global warming in the scientific literature.  The reward was never claimed, but a postdoc found a reference in a 1958 Indiana newspaper account of two southern California scientists who were warning about industrialization causing climate change.  The scientists weren't named, but reading between the lines, they must have been Roger Revelle and Charles Keeling (both from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography).  Keeling started the CO2 readings at Mauna Loa that are always cited.   I think Keeling should be the "father of global warming."

Of course many more were important. Svente Arrhenius or maybe the always overlooked Högbom:

Quote
In 1896 Arrhenius completed a laborious numerical computation which suggested that cutting the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by half could lower the temperature in Europe some 4-5°C (roughly 7-9°F) — that is, to an ice age level. But this idea could only answer the riddle of the ice ages if such large changes in atmospheric composition really were possible. For that question Arrhenius turned to a colleague, Arvid Högbom. It happened that Högbom had compiled estimates for how carbon dioxide cycles through natural geochemical processes, including emission from volcanoes, uptake by the oceans, and so forth. Along the way he had come up with a strange, almost incredible new idea.   

Hogbom
<=Simple models



It had occurred to Högbom to calculate the amounts of CO2 emitted by factories and other industrial sources. Surprisingly, he found that human activities were adding CO2 to the atmosphere at a rate roughly comparable to the natural geochemical processes that emitted or absorbed the gas. As another scientist would put it a decade later, we were "evaporating" our coal mines into the air. The added gas was not much compared with the volume of CO2 already in the atmosphere — the CO2 released from the burning of coal in the year 1896 would raise the level by scarcely a thousandth part. But the additions might matter if they continued long enough.

https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

Also Revelle and the CO2 uptake in oceans:
https://history.aip.org/climate/Revelle.htm

Both links are from Spencer Whearts Discovery of Global Warming which is a great way to read up on all the earlier stuff.

All these discoveries build on eachother.


23
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:50:23 PM »
Early Mars was covered in ice sheets, not flowing rivers, researchers say

...

A large number of the valley networks scarring Mars's surface were carved by water melting beneath glacial ice, not by free-flowing rivers as previously thought, according to new UBC research published today in Nature Geoscience. The findings effectively throw cold water on the dominant "warm and wet ancient Mars" hypothesis, which postulates that rivers, rainfall and oceans once existed on the red planet.

To reach this conclusion, lead author Anna Grau Galofre, former PhD student in the department of earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences, developed and used new techniques to examine thousands of Martian valleys. She and her co-authors also compared the Martian valleys to the subglacial channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and uncovered striking similarities.

"For the last 40 years, since Mars's valleys were first discovered, the assumption was that rivers once flowed on Mars, eroding and originating all of these valleys," says Grau Galofre. "But there are hundreds of valleys on Mars, and they look very different from each other. If you look at Earth from a satellite you see a lot of valleys: some of them made by rivers, some made by glaciers, some made by other processes, and each type has a distinctive shape. Mars is similar, in that valleys look very different from each other, suggesting that many processes were at play to carve them."

...

In total, the researchers analyzed more than 10,000 Martian valleys, using a novel algorithm to infer their underlying erosion processes. "These results are the first evidence for extensive subglacial erosion driven by channelized meltwater drainage beneath an ancient ice sheet on Mars," says co-author Mark Jellinek, professor in UBC's department of earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. "The findings demonstrate that only a fraction of valley networks match patterns typical of surface water erosion, which is in marked contrast to the conventional view. Using the geomorphology of Mars' surface to rigorously reconstruct the character and evolution of the planet in a statistically meaningful way is, frankly, revolutionary."

...


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803120154.htm

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 07:40:13 PM »
Someone complains they are not actually attached?

25
The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: August 01, 2020, 06:43:58 PM »
Why is it a dutch girl? Also i am voting yes.  ;)


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 02:22:32 PM »
Sea ice Concentration July 30th.
There is no need to regularly post redundant graphics like this or #4241 in this thread.

27
A vs B

No because A is not really happening and B is bad enough and is also not happening.

We will C which means overshooting 1,5 and then stabilizing some time later but all that before 2100.

Quote
Our goal though would be to decrease the forcings over time and bring the temperatures down to avoid losing too much of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

If we are really honest we have to admit that 1C with no overshoot might have worked.

If the world had aimed for 1C with max overshoot of 1.5C we could still be where we are now. So about to lose the arctic ice in a decade or two and the permafrost being a source not a sink since early this century.

The situation in Antarctica also deteriorated the recent years and it is not certain we can stop this process at all.


28
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: July 29, 2020, 09:26:02 AM »

Record 212 land and environment activists killed last year

A record number of people were killed last year for defending their land and environment, according to research that highlights the routine murder of activists who oppose extractive industries driving the climate crisis and the destruction of nature.

More than four defenders were killed every week in 2019, according to an annual death toll compiled by the independent watchdog Global Witness, amid growing evidence of opportunistic killings during the Covid-19 lockdown in which activists were left as “sitting ducks” in their own homes.

...

The mining industry was linked to the most land and environmental defender deaths in 2019, according to the report, followed by agriculture, logging and criminal gangs. Indigenous communities around the world continue to face disproportionate risks of violence, making up 40% of murdered defenders last year.

...

“Agribusiness and oil, gas and mining have been consistently the biggest drivers of attacks against land and environmental defenders – and they are also the industries pushing us further into runaway climate change through deforestation and increasing carbon emissions,” said Rachel Cox, a campaigner at Global Witness.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/29/record-212-land-and-environment-activists-killed-last-year

29
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:04:22 PM »
Where are arctic mosquitoes most abundant in Greenland and why?
Examining the population dynamics during the larval life stage of these pests

...

As larvae, Arctic mosquitoes feed on microbial biofilms that are attached to detritus, dead organic matter in the ponds. Using a food web approach, in May and June 2018, Dartmouth researchers investigated how variation in the food quality (bottom up approach), the predaceous diving beetle (C. dolabratus) (top down approach) and other conditions such as temperature and nutrients, affected the larval population. The study sample was comprised of eight different ponds between Kangerlussuaq, Greenland and the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

To measure biofilm productivity, the team used "biofilm samplers," which were left in the ponds for the microbial material to accumulate. Arctic mosquito larvae had access to some of the devices as a food source while others were intentionally blocked off, so that the biofilm could not be eaten. The researchers looked at how much biofilm the larvae consumed and conducted a lab analysis of what the microbial community was composed of.

The researchers had hypothesized that Arctic mosquitoes do not make it to the larva stage because they either do not have enough to eat or they are consumed by the diving beetle. They were surprised by the results. The ponds with the best food quality had the lowest population growth rates, as the mosquitoes tended to overcrowd these sites. These sites had the highest hatching mosquitoes, resulting in intense competition for food and poor survival. In contrast, ponds with lower food quality had higher population growth rates. "Arctic mosquito populations appear to be driven by what they are eating rather than who is eating them," explained first author, Melissa H. DeSiervo, a graduate student in the Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society program at Dartmouth.

...

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/dc-waa072320.php

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 08:34:49 PM »
You can actually click to enlarge.
Plus you might need them. Just check.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2020, 07:36:35 PM »
I think you are underestimating the carry over heat (interesting growing seasons with specific seas closing later or not at all) and the damage done already. The atlantic waters flowing in where there was ice but now is none and mixing.

Plot the ice that is regrowing in the last few years. Project ahead. Possibly reconsider 2075.
You need like 1m20 or so for a lame season and then having thicker ice around helps.

Excel earth looks healthy compared to our one 100% trustworthy analog.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 06:22:00 PM »
None of that relates to the melting season.

33
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 24, 2020, 04:58:49 PM »
But which area?

34
We now have ice on top with a fresh water later below that. If you lose the ice you lose the fresh water cover and a lot of heat can come up from below and the salinity too.

It will become harder to freeze if the sun gets to shine on open water for longer because more heat accumulates.

There will be more open water so more waves.

Of course it will totally change things.

When the CAB melts out it might not be at the last date of the season and maybe most will float out instead of melt in place.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:02:22 PM »
Well that escalated quickly. Since religion is not constructively debated on an internet forum i will edit out all the posts about what you (poster) belief.

36
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: July 18, 2020, 11:13:53 PM »
Amazon soya and beef exports 'linked to deforestation'

Up to one-fifth of Brazil's soya exports to the European Union may be "contaminated" by illegal deforestation, a study has found.

Researchers used freely available maps and data to identify the specific farms and ranches clearing forests to produce soya and beef destined for Europe.

They found 2% of properties were responsible for 62% of illegal deforestation.

These "bad apples" have global environmental consequences, they said.

Prof Raoni Rajão, of the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais in Brazil, said it was up to the country's political and economic leaders to root out "the bad apples in the soy and beef sectors".

"Brazil has the information it needs to take swift and decisive action against these rule-breakers to ensure that its exports are deforestation-free," he said.

...

The research, published in the journal Science, found that 2% of properties in the Amazon rainforest and the Cerrado grasslands are responsible for 62% of all potentially illegal deforestation.

Roughly 20% of soya exports and at least 17% of beef exports to the EU may be "contaminated with illegal deforestation", the researchers said.

According to their analysis, two million tons of soya grown on properties with illegal deforestation may have reached EU markets annually during the period of analysis, 500,000 of which came from the Amazon.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53438680

and

Brazil's Bolsonaro under pressure to protect Amazon

Faced with investors demanding "results" in the fight against Amazon deforestation, Brazil's government seems to be performing something of an about-face, although it will have to work to convince skeptics.

The simple fact that Vice President Hamilton Mourao committed on Wednesday to cutting deforestation and forest fires "to an acceptable minimum" was a mini-revolution in the administration of far right President Jair Bolsonaro.

Less than a year ago the international community watched in horror as the number of forest fires in the Amazon soared to their highest levels since 2013.

Ireland and France threatened to scupper a trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur—of which Brazil is a member—unless Bolsonaro acted to protect what French President Emmanuel Macron described as a "common interest."

Macron called the fires an "international crisis" and Bolsonaro fired back at his counterpart's "colonialist mentality."

...

But at the end of June, investment funds from Europe, Asia and South America that collectively administer close to $4 trillion in assets cranked up the pressure in an open letter to Bolsonaro, urging the end of projects that threaten to accelerate destruction of the world's largest rainforest.

That seems to have hit home.

"The fact that the pressure comes from investors and not from heads of state, that gives it a different tone," Andre Perfeito, an economist at Necton consultants, told AFP.

details on:
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-brazil-bolsonaro-pressure-amazon.html


37
Permafrost / Re: Impact of aircraft flights on ice melting
« on: July 18, 2020, 11:02:18 PM »
So there was this year with a big crash and then some recovery from that. So you ploy the yearly values and draw a line but that is not how that works.

If you look at a youtube movie of the ice over the years you can see it change to now where we only have a failing skeleton of bigger ice left. The trend will not keep reversing and hence you don´t need your theory.

 

38
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: July 18, 2020, 10:40:09 PM »
About 94 per cent of wild bee and native plant species networks lost


Climate change and an increase in disturbed bee habitats from expanding agriculture and development in northeastern North America over the last 30 years are likely responsible for a 94 per cent loss of plant-pollinator networks, York University researchers found.

The researchers, corresponding author Professor Sandra Rehan of the Faculty of Science and grad student Minna Mathiasson of the University of New Hampshire, looked at plant-pollinator networks from 125 years ago through present day. The networks are comprised of wild bees and the native plants they historically rely on, although most of those have now been disrupted.

About 30 per cent of plant-pollinator networks were completely lost, which translates to a disappearance of either the bees, the plants or both. In another 64 per cent of the network loss, the wild bees, such as sweat or miner bees, or native plants, such as sumac and willow, are still present in the eco-system, but the bees no longer visit those plants. The association is gone.

The remaining six per cent of the plant-pollinator networks are stable or even thriving with pollinators such as small carpenter bees, which like broken stems for nest making.

"There are several reasons for the losses in the networks. Climate change is likely the biggest driver. We know that over the last 100 years or so annual temperatures have changed by two and a half degrees. This is enough to alter the time when certain native plants bloom," says Rehan.

"For a bee that's out for months on end or is a generalist pollinator, this isn't such a critical mismatch, but for a bee that's only out for two weeks of the year and only has a few floral hosts, this could be devastating." An increase in non-native species of bees and invasive species of plants, which have displaced some of the native species, is another reason for the decline in networks.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200716144740.htm

39
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:34:10 PM »
World needs 7 planets to eat like a G20 nation, food report finds
At least seven planets would be required for the world to sustain the level of food consumed by G20 countries. Germany and the US are among the worst offenders.


Among all the globe's 20 most industrialized nations, only India and Indonesia maintain a diet low enough in carbon emissions to meet the Paris climate target, according to a report published Thursday. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Germany and the United States were among the countries that grossly exceeded sustainable levels of food-related carbon emissions, largely due to their high consumption of red meat and dairy products.

"This report clearly shows that food consumption in G20 countries is unsustainable and would require up to 7.4 Earths if adopted globally," said Joao Campari of the World Wildlife Fund.

Rich countries are consuming more red meat and dairy than is laid out in their countries' nutritional guidelines and much more than experts say is sustainable for the planet.

https://www.dw.com/en/world-food-report-g20/a-54193682


40
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:58:16 PM »
Oh the reverse lion...how cute.   :)

PS: Melt stuff relates to science physics and not political science. No amount of hopium is going to cure whatever is going on now.

41
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: July 17, 2020, 06:58:33 PM »
Or post to ´The Problem with social media´.

I hate how the annual dentist congress pollutes my geology feed. *erosion*

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 16, 2020, 02:52:42 PM »
Copy from thread "is sea ice affected by microplastics" as this article is about car tyres and electric cars are seen by many as a sustainable solution.
... 

Since your main thesis is that “all cars are bad,” this post is more appropriately placed in the “Cars cars and more cars Part Deux” thread.  Keeping such arguments separate from the transition to EVs is exactly why Neven created this alternative thread.

I think this is a good point for the tyres discussion.
Most people read both threads anyway.

43
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: July 15, 2020, 03:59:25 PM »
RCP 8.6

Mostly using quotes from. Probably better to read the whole thing on the link.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario

Explainer: The high-emissions ‘RCP8.5’ global warming scenario

In this article, Carbon Brief examines how the emissions scenario underlying RCP8.5 was developed and how it has subsequently been used in the academic literature and media. According to the researchers who developed it, RCP8.5 was intended to be a “very high baseline emission scenario” representing the 90th percentile of no-policy baseline scenarios available at the time.

The creators of RCP8.5 had not intended it to represent the most likely “business as usual” outcome, emphasising that “no likelihood or preference is attached” to any of the specific scenarios. Its subsequent use as such represents something of a breakdown in communication between energy systems modellers and the climate modelling community.

...

Rather than starting with detailed socioeconomic storylines to generate emissions and climate scenarios, as had been the case with the SRES scenarios, the energy systems modeling community decided to start by creating scenarios of future “radiative forcing” for climate modelling not associated with any particular unique socioeconomic or emissions scenario. Radiative forcing is a measure of the combined effect of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors that can influence climate to trap additional heat.

Each RCP provides only one of many possible pathways to that level of radiative forcing. The researchers developing the RCPs also stressed that they were not intended to be “the final new, fully integrated scenarios” but rather would simply focus on future concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiative forcings used as inputs into climate models.

Four pathways were developed based on their end-of-century radiative forcing: RCP2.6 (indicating a 2.6 watts per metre squared – W/m2 – forcing increase relative to pre-industrial conditions), RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.

The selection of these four pathways was a result of a number of different priorities. These included having scenarios that spanned the range of future emissions and concentrations projected in scientific literature, but also being sufficiently distinct from one another.

Unfortunately, the development of the socioeconomic pathways took much longer than originally foreseen, and the RCPs were never turned into fully integrated scenarios in time for the publication of the AR5.

This left them as useful tools for modelling different potential climate outcomes, but lacking any consistent socioeconomic assumptions that would allow researchers to examine the likelihood of different no-policy baseline and mitigation scenarios. For example, Moss and colleagues specifically state that “RCP8.5 cannot be used as a no-climate-policy reference scenario for the other RCPs because RCP8.5’s socioeconomic, technology and biophysical assumptions differ from those of the other RCPs.”

...

In their paper outlining the development of the RCP scenarios, Prof Detlef van Vuuren and colleagues explained that they include “one mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level (RCP2.6), two medium stabilisation scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP6.0) and one very high baseline emission scenarios (RCP8.5).”

They suggest that “RCP8.5 should be seen as a high emission scenario” while “RCP6.0 can be interpreted as either a medium baseline or a high mitigation case”. This suggests that the authors say no reason to consider RCP8.5 a more likely “business as usual” outcome than, say, RCP6.0.

RCP8.5 was specifically selected as a high-end baseline scenario, and was not intended to be portrayed as the most likely “business as usual” no-policy outcome. The researchers emphasise this point in their paper, showing how the emissions in each scenario compared to the range found in the energy modelling literature at the time.

...

As van Vuuren tells Carbon Brief:

“RCP8.5 was never meant to be a business-as-usual scenario, but as a high-end scenario, consistent with the highest emissions scenarios in the literature.

“Clearly, RCP8.5 is a possible no-climate policy world. But it is surely not the only one, and in terms of the level of GHG emissions, it is not the most likely. One can only get that high by a combination of factors, e.g. high population growth and a lot of coal use (as in the original RCP8.5 scenario) or high economic growth and strong reliance on fossil fuels (in the current SSP5 version). But an emission level leading to a forcing level of around 6-7 W/m2 can be achieved by many more scenarios, not only by medium assumptions for many factors (RCP6.0) but also by high population growth and low economic growth or the exact opposite.

“In other words, even if the specific RCP6.0 scenario is not necessarily more likely than any other scenario, a forcing level in that order-of-magnitude might be more likely based on the central limit theorem.”

...

Kassy: Then this is cute:

As Peters tells Carbon Brief:

“All scenarios will look like they are on track in the early years, as they are always set to the same base year. I don’t think it is possible to say, with aggregated CO2, if we are on track with any scenario in particular.”

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-the-high-emissions-rcp8-5-global-warming-scenario

One more post coming.

44
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 15, 2020, 10:30:26 AM »
That is one of the things i found funny about the article in a way. We are running up a huge tab for our children and grandchildren in damages from climate change and all kinds of other pollution mismanagement and we freely ignore that.

Covid lead to a huge reaction because suddenly there is something which can hit us directly and this extrapolation then jumps to ´oh no my pension´.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:32:18 AM »
A follow up to #224:


UK risks going cold on heat decarbonisation, think tank warns

The government is falling behind on a key plank of its net zero strategy, with the UK having installed less than two per cent of the heat pumps needed to decarbonise the nation's homes, according to a new report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).

The think tank is today calling on the government to adopt a comprehensive Home Improvement Plan to catalyse progress on across the green heat sector to tackle the 14 per cent of total UK emissions that come from homes.

If the UK is to meet its 2050 net zero target, at least 12 million homes will have to be fitted with heat pumps and energy efficiency measures such as insulation over the next 30 years, according to the IPPR's report.

Titled All hands to the pump: a clean heat plan for England the report estimates that the government has so far supported the installation of less than two per cent of what is needed. Even the recently announced £3bn energy efficiency fund provides only a "first step" towards delivering the mass roll out of green heat technologies, the report warns, calculating that across England it will take closer to £10.6bn a year of both public and private investment through to 2030, and a further £7bn from 2030 to 2050, to deliver the scale of change required to meet the UK's net zero target.

Meeting this challenge will require a coordinated a national plan, the think tank argues, as as such it is urging Ministers to adopt a comprehensive Home Improvement Plan. At the heart of the nw plan should be a significant scale up of heat pumps to replace existing central heating systems, which could be accompanied by the wider adoption of district heating systems, with infrastructure installed at the neighbourhood level.

and more on:
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4017794/uk-risks-cold-heat-decarbonisation-tank-warns

46
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:28:46 AM »
The Infinitesimal Life Aboard Sea Turtles


Migrating sea turtles carry entire worlds on their backs—ones teeming with life forms small enough to fit between grains of sand. Life on such a scale is easy to overlook, but these miniature communities hold clues that could help protect the living islands they call home.

It’s been known for years that sea turtles harbor metropolises composed, in part, of such visible organisms as barnacles, algae, and tiny crustaceans. But new research on loggerhead turtles in the Gulf of Mexico suggests the populations they ferry are far more diverse than scientists ever imagined.

Loggerheads transport a vast array of meiofauna, a group of animals that are bigger than bacteria but still too small to see with the unaided eye. Creatures on the meiofauna roster, including mud dragons and water bears, range from under a millimeter to just 20 micrometers in length. That means 100 of the smallest meiofauna could cuddle comfortably on a pinhead. A swimming reptile, by comparison, provides plenty of real estate.

Jeroen Ingels, a marine ecologist at Florida State University and lead author of the study, says his team found an average of 33,000 hitchhikers per turtle, with one loggerhead hosting nearly 150,000 passengers. “The numbers were a shock,” he says. “We expected to find thousands, but not hundreds of thousands.”

More surprising still was the scope of different species, particularly among nematodes—worm-like animals found in sediments the world over. Nearly 7,000 nematodes representing 111 genera were found on the turtles.

“We’d expect the shells to be dominated by certain species that are well-adapted to this kind of lifestyle,” says Ingels. So, to discover the same variety as might turn up in a bustling seafloor was extraordinary, he says. “It means there are so many microhabitats and niches on the back of this turtle. [They allow] all these species to be there in fully functioning communities.”

continues on:
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-infinitesimal-life-aboard-sea-turtles/

47
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: July 14, 2020, 05:33:43 PM »
It´s about the system and what it wants to do. Actually housing the homeless is cheaper then pölicing them.

Of course this does not mean you can help everyone at once and there will always be outliers.

I actually ended up homeless and it took a while to get back. Along the way i met many people which were all different. Some were not actually interested in getting a house at all. It might be being used to a different life for too long.

Although i could never understand that. First time they gave me a key and i could lock a door again and outside was suddenly outside again i just cried.

Some people have different safe spaces but if you safe all the easy cases you have more resources (people figuring out what to do with them) for the special ones.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: July 14, 2020, 05:10:37 PM »
NETHERLANDS STILL PUSHING €8 BILLION INTO FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY ANNUALLY: ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS

...

The over 8 billion euros in state aid to the fossil fuel industry listed in the report includes direct subsidies, but also tax advantages and price support. The largest part, almost 5 billion euros per year, goes to aviation and shipping, industry, power plants and agriculture.

42 percent of the total amount is for the aviation sector - airlines receive billions of euros in benefits. And this excludes coronavirus support. There is no VAT on kerosene, which means there is no tax on airline tickets. Because there is VAT on all other forms of transport, this leads to an uneven playing field, the environmental organizations said. "It is absurd that you pay more VAT for your tram ticket than for a plane ticket to Bali."

According to the organizations, the government also indirectly supports fossil energy projects abroad. For example, Dutch companies receive government support for building refineries in Oman and oil platforms in Mexico. "The Netherlands exports the climate crisis through our fossil support," they said. "Poor countries in particular become more dependent on oil and gas." And it is the people in these countries that are hit hardest by the climate crisis.

The industry also enjoys major tax advantages. "The big polluters from heavy industry receive millions in tax benefits, which are coughed up by households and small entrepreneurs," Milieudefensie director Donald Pols said.

...

https://nltimes.nl/2020/07/14/netherlands-still-pushing-eu8-billion-fossil-fuel-industry-annually-environmental

So on the the upside there is plenty of money to liberate for the transition.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 14, 2020, 05:07:14 PM »
Global Push for LNG Creates 'Gas Bubble' That Could Bust

...


Much of the rationale is falling apart. The world has changed dramatically since many LNG projects originally received the go-ahead. The price of LNG in Asia — the so-called Japan-Korea Marker, or JKM —collapsed to just above $2 per MMBtu this year, while U.S. natural gas prices (using the Henry Hub benchmark) have traded at roughly $1.80/MMBtu. After factoring in the cost of liquefaction and transport, the window to export American LNG on the spot market has temporarily closed. 

But deteriorating economics pre-date the pandemic. The market was already souring last year as a wave of new projects came online and demand failed to keep up. Market prices in Europe and Asia declined by roughly 45 percent in 2019 as export capacity swelled, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

If the market was already weakening, the pandemic decisively pushed it into a depression. Even contracted cargoes have been canceled in growing numbers in recent months as the worldwide glut deepens. For July and August, LNG buyers overseas canceled around 80 cargoes from the U.S., and export terminals on the Gulf Coast are only operating at a fraction of typical capacity. The more exports decline, the more gas becomes trapped within the United States, deepening the glut.

Despite the negative direction, the gas industry and its financial backers continued to pour capital into new LNG terminals, at least until recently. Last year was a record year for investment and the trend continued into the early part of 2020. Globally, spending on LNG infrastructure soared to $196 billion between April 2019 and May 2020, up from $82 billion in the year prior, according to the Global Energy Monitor study.

The spending spree is now hitting turbulence. At least 11 major LNG projects from around the globe have run into some form of disruption, with problems stemming from low natural gas prices, heightened protest from impacted communities, as well as disruptions due to the spread of COVID-19, according to Global Energy Monitor. Delays and canceled investment decisions are mounting.

...

However, others warn that the downturn is not transitory. Global Energy Monitor warned that the “gas bubble” could pop. Massive LNG projects carry multi-billion-dollar price tags, with very aggressive assumptions about demand growth. China stands at the very core of every long-term demand forecast. If China pursues alternatives, or even finds gas supplies via pipeline from its neighbors, the rosy scenarios could badly disappoint.

“China is like the single point of failure for the LNG industry,” Clark Williams-Derry, an energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), told DeSmog. “In order to really inflate this market, it doesn't work without China.”

...

https://www.desmogblog.com/2020/07/13/global-energy-monitor-report-lng-gas-bubble

50
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: July 14, 2020, 04:30:30 PM »
28 million homeless people is a lot of desperate people.
That´s 7%.

Can´t end well.

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