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Messages - kassy

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In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6–5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene.
We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets.

Note the bolded phrase.  They are comparing a time without the large North American and Eurasian ice sheets (kinda like now) to the time when those ice sheets were melting (like 25,000 to 10,000 years ago).

Ken they are still melting.

The Pleistocene is the current ice age, one we are in geologically except we broke the next ice age or two because we are in the Dumbassic now. The Pleistocene had the big ice sheets and then they were gone, but it is all current geological age.
The pliocene ended with a 50m drop in sea level which must have been ice growth but geologically it was not a time like now, it was growing into the ice ages.
The argument is simply that the climate reacts more when the ice sheets are melting forced by CO2. It is sort of obvious when you know that ice sheets are a feedback.

Also nothing about this tells us what is going to happen with a warmer, swampier Siberia. Or with plains drying out when there are no more rivers because the snowcaps have gone. And many other changes which come slowly first then suddenly.

Basically know your unknowns and a thread like this helps filling up a part of that.

PS: Some quotes and a link to an open source science paper are not cherry picking. You can use other language like ´leave out this relevant bit´ or whatever paraphrase of that you prefer.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 05, 2019, 02:25:28 PM »
Mekong River is turning blue. That’s not good.

Water levels in the Mekong River are now reaching a critical point. The river’s normally brown waters have turned aquamarine, like sea water, and sandbars are emerging, some of them several kilometres long.

Arthit Panasoon, president of a conservation group in the northeastern province of Nakhon Phanom, says the rare change in water colour, although it might look attractive, is a deceptively gloomy sign that the river is running dry.

He explains that the average depth in his vicinity is now around one metre, the lowest in more than fifty years. Because it’s so shallow, the river flows slowly, causing sedimentation, usually kicked up from the riverbed, to sink and remain unmoved, producing the aquamarine colour.

more on

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: December 05, 2019, 02:18:07 PM »
Drs. P - Knolraap En Lof, Schorseneren En Prei (nl) (1987)

That aged very well. You only need to change lage into hoge and it´s updated.  :)

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 02:00:20 PM »
But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 04, 2019, 07:56:21 PM »
Latest from them:
450 million years ago, CO2 levels were between 2000 and 8000 ppm. Earth did not turn into Venus then, either. In fact there was an ice age.
Interesting, huh? It's been both warmer and colder with far higher CO2 levels than we are at now.
Sounds to me like CO2 levels don't control Earth's temperature as much as some would like us to believe.
Anyone want to take it?

This is not what this thread is for.

It is really simple.
If you need help answering these questions you cannot debate the issue.
Also it is a waste of energy and a distraction here.


Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 04, 2019, 12:43:04 PM »
Interesting answer.

GDP is very abstract. That does not mean it does not show does correlations you claim.

Although Bhutan is not great on GDP but i think it got to most happy nation in some ranking.

And in the US that does not really hold for environmental protection (or the other two but that is more fuzzy so lets just stick to the one).

Our only objective should always be the maximum happiness for the most people. Biodiversity and sea level must take second place to maintaining and protecting food production.

You run out of biodiversity at some point and nature provides really critical services. Do you want to export soy beans or seed rain for the continent for free? The latter service actually provides more value to the world but if no one accounts on it that does not exist. More soybean exports are probably good for your current GDP but they will hurt you in the long run.

And sea level rise is not going to help with the happiness. You lived in a nice place at the coast and then it is gone. And before it is gone gone you might be trapped in a house you cannot sell while the companies and people who can afford to move.

I guess it depends on whether you focus on all the unneeded suffering or stuff that smooths that out like GDP.

Especially in the first world we should pressure our governments to actually make their own goals and also invest in smart grids in the poorer countries. Especially since we have been robbing most of them since forever so it would be nice to give something back.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 04, 2019, 09:44:07 AM »
The warnings for that picture included the subforum name (Arctic expeditions) and the thread name.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 04, 2019, 09:16:28 AM »
Binntho if you woke up this morning feeling different and suddenly you know that you would live for a millenium instead of a century would you still use GDP to look at these things?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: December 03, 2019, 06:38:43 PM »
Well that is what sort of triggers me recently. Basically in the early nineties ice failure in the Arctic ice would be 2040s stuff. Then there were some bad years in the late nineties and it got worse.

But well thats just floating ice...

Greenland was much further down the timeline and Antarctica was not happening in centuries....guess it was the time when it still gained mass.

Now we can see a lot more and we see Greenland is not just a cube slowly melting because we know more about the bottom and we learn more about the interior.

And Antarctica is not in a great shape either.

Then my personal pet pieve. Stopping global warming meant stopping the permafrost from turning into a source but that already happened. Lets see if they can close the carbon gap this blah blah session.

While at the other end Bolsonaro is doing his best to stop Leonardo the Caprio from torching the Amazon because he is long on soy or whatever. If you had told me this in the early nighties i would never have believed you.

BTW i don´t think it was all complacent smug stuff because we knew less. A lot was unthinkable and the amount of computing power limited the testing of already too simple ideas.

The world could have poured millions more into climate research and acted on it but it chose not to do that. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 05:03:05 PM »
On the dosbat link you see the perennial extent dive down at the same time. I think it is a good match.

Other areas used to freeze and melt then they got cleared so did not protect the rest anymore.
This affected all the outer Arctic seas and the gyre and got us to here.

The future ice is harder to melt by location but it easier to melt because it is thinner and more mobile and the background forcing increases year over year.

The remaining area is also not really sticking to Greenland for safety as we had hoped for a long time so what is left might get really floaty at some point. Or just disintegrate and die in place.

I would love to know how Remaining ice at max for every year is composed by Ice Grown Locally (in the 80N circle or whatever the metric is) vs Imported ice over the previous year.
But we don´t.

I bet it would make for a cleaner fit.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: December 03, 2019, 03:54:25 PM »
In just five hours, five million cubic metres of water drained to the bottom of the ice sheet via the fracture, causing a new cavity to form and reducing the lake to a third of its original volume. This caused the ice flow to accelerate from a speed of two metres per day to more than five metres per day as surface water was transferred to the bed, which in turn lifted the ice sheet by half a metre.

That is impressive. Cool research.  8)

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 03:18:25 PM »
I was going to say or start the OT debate in proper place but it ofc starts with ´a simple misreading of a line´ and goes on from there.

Just out of curiosity where should the debate be moved too and from what post?

Basically all the OT stems from one poster grasping at straws first misreading a line and then what the oceans do. There is no really obvious thread to put it AFAIS.

My cut off date was data day aka sunday. 

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 02, 2019, 01:33:06 PM »
No specific places. It´s about the timing (currently 30 bpm).

Climate change is forcing one person from their home every two seconds, Oxfam says

(CNN)Climate-fueled disasters have forced about 20 million people a year to leave their homes in the past decade -- equivalent to one every two seconds -- according to a new report from Oxfam.

This makes the climate the biggest driver of internal displacement for the period, with the world's poorer countries at the highest risk, despite their smaller contributions to global carbon pollution compared to richer nations.

People are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by floods, cyclones and wildfires than volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, and three times more likely than by conflict, according to the report released Monday,

for further details:

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 01, 2019, 04:42:01 PM »
It is just a site where you write mammaloid stories which must be rather niche in itself. It really does not matter in the large perspective.

You can choose to write stories there and ignore their politics or you don´t.

You will never convince them because affiliation is more interesting then reason for most humans so any attempt is a waste of time.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: December 01, 2019, 04:13:47 PM »
Well China is pretty scary. You post something critical on Weibo and the next thing you know you have restricted travel on long distance rail services.

We as westerners should be much more critical toward our systems. The problem is that we elect people on some bland talking point like scary foreigners and economic that never emerge.

Then the laws are technical and we are just dumb voters so we do not participate there but the paid lobbying interests do.

The idea that the US is the protector of the free world is a lie see:

I am still not that sure about the EU but...

Could we think of things we all want and want to share with all?
Simple things. We would all enjoy affordable health care.
We would all enjoy to retire after a working life.
We would all like to have our kids enjoy that too.

There is more of course when you go into details but you do not get to vote on that factory in your neighborhood or things like that. Or vote if we actually care to bomb some distant country.

People should be much more critical towards the systems that rule them.
Yeah you get to vote again but people consider it like choosing from a menu a restaurant. This is ofc worse with binary choice.

If you like cooking you see there are many more options. If you are passionate about all the options around you can see the chance to grow other stuff to make very different dishes.

But consumerism prefers the takeaway.

Democracy is not only the easiest choice you get (voting on someone).

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 01, 2019, 01:51:14 PM »
Which freely translates to your arguments are not valid because they conflict with our worldview.
I don´t think it is worth wasting time on them.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 30, 2019, 08:12:09 PM »

Big money business
Take what they can
Always for a profit
Never for the consumer
Using all tricks
Using to trap
Taking all for money
For their personal gain
Corporation pull-in
Corporation pull-in
The rich get rich
The poor stay poor
Working hard
All for nothing

Part of the lyrics because well they are not easy to make out if you are not used to the style.

I had this 400 house paper round and i would get extra cents for folders so around this time of the year it would go up to 7 of them and i would put on the World Downfall album and fold to the music...job done in record time.  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 02:53:26 PM »
You can choose not to reply at all. This saves energy and i don´t think we will lose a lot of souls over this.

It can be a fun game for a while and worth it if you think there are third parties reading that you can convince by sane arguments. I did this on a general preparedness forum. Simple explanation of the falsehood and some links for more in depth explanations. Then i kept a list of simply repeated points which he never debated and reposted that. That did kill his enthousiasm a bit.

But you can only debate what you know (or are really good at faking as your opponent) so if you do not know how to rebuke it yourself then you can´t.

Sayings like You can´t win them all and Pick your battles apply.
And all energy saved helps even it is a tiny bit.   

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: November 30, 2019, 02:26:17 PM »
Pretty cool that The Onion can now post on Reuters website.  :)

This was to be expected since comedians already do a better job on reporting the news then the TV journals and background shows.
I mean shows like The Weekly Show or whatever the original of Zondag with Lubach is called.

And Steven thanks for that dino cartoon. It is wonderfully efficient.

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 27, 2019, 01:24:59 PM »

ps: Ken, how do you rate the chances of reducing CO2 emissions in 2030 by 55% (7.5% p.a.) for +1.5 celsius, 25% for +2 celsius ?

With solar and wind now cheaper than fossil fuels in about three quarters of the world (already cheaper in the developed countries and now at grid parity in China), pretty good.

Given that we're already seeing drops in global coal consumption (down 3% in 2019) and softening of demand for oil and a huge glut in natural gas, the major wildcard is how quickly battery electric vehicles take over the transportation market.  The forecast year for cost parity between BEVs and ICEs is now 2022.  So we should see peak oil demand within the decade.

I doubt we'll see a new coal power plant built after 2025 or a new natural gas power plant after 2035.  Sales of new ICE vehicles will probably be banned in most countries in the 2030s.

I suspect that we wont hit the 7.5% annual decreases needed for the 1.5 degree C target until the 2030s, but we should be able to hit the 2.0 target for emissions reductions in the 2020s and exceed them in the 2030s and 2040s.  With global temperatures increasing at around 0.18 degrees per decade and the five-year average increase around 0.9 C, we'd hit 1.5 degrees in the 2050s. So we'll end up somewhere by 1.5C and 2.0C temperature increase before looking at options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

Quote above is#560 from the but,but China thread and i edited out parts because i am mainly interested in the time line. Original here:,956.msg238587.html#new

1) Coal power is falling which is good but this means we get added warming from the fall out. Effects are mainly local and current sources are mainly in Asia but any extra warming there will move somewhere over time.

2) The Amazon might die in the early 20ies. It might not if we are lucky but it is rather close. If this happens we have a huge extra source of carbon and since the trees provide a lot of droplets for cloud seeding this will also lead extra drought and soil carbon loss in S-America.

3) Arctic permafrost is a source not a sink since at least 2003 due to wintertime carbon loss.

4) The global greening might turn to global browning. This is an annoying one because the actual paper is linked somewhere on ASIF but i have not been able to find it. Examples are in stories of the death of trees in Germany.

5) Continued infringement on old growth forests. We just keep chopping bits down.

6) Plenty of metrics point to the loss of Arctic ice in that time frame.

So we are chasing a 1,5 or 2 C target while all this damage is accruing.

In the meantime there will be all kind of social effects eating money and creating unrest but that does not directly effect the carbon budget so lets skip those.

And beyond just global warming there is widespread aquifer depletion and top soil loss.

So basically there is this disjoint between our abstract goals and all kind of bad stuff happening.

AFAIC the whole plan was to prevent the arctic ice from failing (which is iffy by this timeline) and preventing arctic permafrost from failing was another important point which we already failed.

When the ozone hole was detected we acted on it. Less money there i guess.
This was different with FF interests and basically the damage had been done when the goal was moved beyond 1C max global warming because that gets us to where we are now.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 26, 2019, 05:02:00 PM »
The buyout is mainly for nitrogen and smell pollution (this was the original reason the law was already in the works). Remember these are big modern farms.

Of course there is technology to combat that but i guess that implementing that makes the pigs too expensive. 

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Ah yes but the nitrogen problem needs to be solved in the country because that is a EU law we signed on to and then not properly implemented. This is about our own emissions, our pollution.

So technically if someone across the border started a huge pig farm that would not be a problem.

But aren't diesel/gasoline engines a much bigger contributor of NOx than pig manure ?

The maximum speed for cars will be lowered, see first 2 posts of this thread.

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

This one?
The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.

The one on agriculture is linked under ´documenten´ on the first link.

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 26, 2019, 03:19:33 PM »
At least we tried...oh wait.  :(

Fifteen of the 20 wealthiest nations have no timeline for a net zero target.

The report says that emissions have gone up by 1.5% per year in the last decade. In 2018, the total reached 55 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is putting the Earth on course to experience a temperature rise of 3.2C by the end of this century.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:48:56 PM »
They used to be on the Young Ones show so you have to wonder how much they used people from that for the video or vice versa. Loved that opening.  :)

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:41:06 PM »
Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species.

But sometimes you do not need to find the last individuals because you just wreck their habitat.
Or you kill them before you even find them.
Or you did not want it too but it just burned because the world got a bit hotter and local failures in management did not help. So long and thanks for all the leafs signed by the functionally extinct koalas.

Here they are not really thinking of the supply chain and what might limit it.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:31:06 PM »
Cool - there is so much we do not know.  :)

PS: Tom Von Neumann Probes are primitive swarmers and as thus frowned upon by all civilized species. Another general rule of etiquette is to not contact civilizations which have not figured it out yet which is why no one calls us. Now please look at the flashing pencil. 8)

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 25, 2019, 04:59:53 PM »
Yeah if it is in Germany it might do the same thing as in Poland because that just relates to bad practices in the sector. And then that would put it next to our swine sector number 2 but as soon as that gets hit the whole country locks down.

I wonder what the current remedy is. In many scenarios they would just cull the animals and start over.

Oh the joys of monoculture...  :(

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 25, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »
Our 2018 ´hindcast´:

Climate change: Greenhouse gas concentrations again break records

 in 2018 concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million (ppm), up from 405.5ppm a year previously.

This increase was above the average for the last 10 years and is 147% of the "pre-industrial" level in 1750.

Methane is now at 259% of the pre-industrial level and the increase seen over the past year was higher than both the previous annual rate and the average over the past 10 years.

Nitrous oxide is emitted from natural and human sources, including from the oceans and from fertiliser-use in farming. According to the WMO, it is now at 123% of the levels that existed in 1750.

Last year's increase in concentrations of the gas, which can also harm the ozone layer, was bigger than the previous 12 months and higher than the average of the past decade.

What concerns scientists is the overall warming impact of all these increasing concentrations. Known as total radiative forcing, this effect has increased by 43% since 1990, and is not showing any indication of stopping.


"It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago. Back then, the temperature was 2-3C warmer, sea level was 10-20m higher than now," said Mr Taalas.

For details see:

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 25, 2019, 02:45:33 PM »
That's an amazing loss of quality protein!
What is expected to fill the gap. What source would emit fewer emissions, and what will it taste like?
Won't prices for pork spike? What will the less affluent eat?

I'm amazed, and somehow disturbed.
I need more time to consider this.

TerryM don´t worry.  :)

Nederlandse export landbouwproducten in 2018 ruim € 90 miljard. In 2018 is voor een bedrag van € 90,3 miljard geëxporteerd aan landbouwgoederen. Dat is een lichte groei van 0,2% ten opzichte van 2017 (€ 90,1 miljard). Nederland is de op één na grootste landbouwexporteur van de wereld, na de Verenigde Staten.

Dutch agricultural export was worth 90 billion euros in 2018. We are the second biggest exporter worldwide after the US...and we are about 230 times smaller.

This does not include pig farming but the overall idea is the same. We export stuff so we can export less. In the netherlands we only eat choice parts of the animal. We don´t really do organ meat much so that was sold to france/southern europe. And recently we got export permission to export pigs again to China where they use all parts of it so you can sell all the other parts too them.

The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.
It´s in dutch but google translate should work.

There are several ways to argue about this. One is the claim that we are actually efficient in emissions compared to most other countries and this is true but that still does not mean we have to produce their food or at least not as much as we do now.

As for pork prices...there is a huge ASF problem and there is not enough pork in the world for the chinese so we will see what that does in the short term for prices.

PS: the earlier concept version of the law had 120 million earmarked for buyouts and 40 million for ´innovation´. The 120 million is enough to buy out about 40 pig farms.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: November 25, 2019, 01:27:29 PM »
Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Niño and Southern Oscillation

See the ENSO 2019 thread for some more EN/LN research. There is this one tied to the lunar cycle, another paper by chinese scientists using machine learning and i am pretty sure there is also a paper from European scientists who have a method to extend the forecast...think it has at least one scientist from Potsdam. Both the lunar cycle and the euro paper point to EN in 2020.

If anyone stumbles across this paper please post a link in 2019 ENSO thread or here, thanks.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: November 25, 2019, 12:56:54 PM »
I’m worried’: Alaska’s ice cellars melting due to climate change after being used to store food for generations


Ranging from small arctic root cellars to spacious, wood-lined underground chambers, ice cellars are typically stocked with vast amounts of whale, walrus, seal and caribou.

These chambers, usually built 10 to 12 feet below the surface, have long been used to age subsistence food to perfection and ensure a steady supply during the sparser months, which is critical for survival.


“I’m worried,” said Gordon Brower, a Utquiagvik whaling captain whose family owns two ice cellars.

One is more than a century old more than 100 years old and used to store at least two tonnes whale meat set aside for community feasts. The other, built in 1955, is used to feed Mr Brower and his family.

He recently asked his son to retrieve some whale meat from the one of the cellars, and discovered both were in a bad state.

“He came back and said: ‘Dad, there’s a pool of blood and water at the bottom,’” said Mr Brower, who is now housing the community’s meat under a tarpaulin sheet above ground.

for details see:

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 24, 2019, 01:18:18 PM »
Varkenshouders in het zuiden van het land krijgen als ze overgaan op sanering veel meer geld per varken dan bedrijven in het oosten. De subsidieregeling voor het uitkopen van varkensboeren, 'warme sanering' genoemd, is in het leven geroepen om de stankoverlast en stikstofuitstoot van de sector te verminderen. Het ministerie van Landbouw maakte de tarieven van de subsidieregeling donderdag bekend.

Iemand die in het zuiden van het land tot sanering overgaat, ontvangt 151 euro per varken. In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research.

De reden voor het grote verschil in prijs per varken is een verschil in vraag en aanbod: in het oosten kan een varkenshouder nog volop varkensrechten kopen, in het zuiden zijn ze juist nog amper te krijgen. Het is voor boeren niet mogelijk om varkensrechten uit de andere regio te kopen.

also see

180 million euros are reserved for a buy out of pig farmers. The program is voluntary and the compensation depends on which of the two main areas the farmer is in. The prize in the south is higher because you cannot buy new pig farming rights for the area.

The aim is to reduce nitrogen emissions and smell problems too.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 24, 2019, 01:06:15 PM »
2030 was already the end date for the gas field. This has now been pulled forward to mid 2022.

The field will not be dismantled so we can use it if needed in a very cold winter in the 2020s.

At least we acknowledged that we cannot use this resource for much longer then 2030 for a long time. On paper we were committed but nothing much happened but increased earthquake damage forced the politicians hand...then again russian nat gas should be coming soon and that could have factored in but it is not something they talk about.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 24, 2019, 12:41:56 PM »
Nothing yuck about old skeletons. I once visited the Capuchin Crypt in Rome now that was something else but still not yuck.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: November 24, 2019, 10:44:26 AM »
Now all that is left to do is to fix the link.  ;)

As a wise man once said: You have received the information now act on it

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: November 24, 2019, 10:42:23 AM »
We know H.Sap is much more numerous then the others. They made babies with Neanderthals and Denisovans (And Neanderthals and Denisovans did too before they met the H.Sap) so i think they were just mixed in.

Also i don´t think conquering was a thing then...

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 23, 2019, 11:13:47 AM »
So who came up with this idea to eliminate the "gas-grid" in the Netherlands ?

We are winding down the exploitation of some big gas fields sooner then planned because they cause earthquakes and damage to houses in the Groningen area. From 2018 on we import more gas then we export.

As you can see there is quite a lot of bad energy sources that will need to be replaced:

It is not going to be easy but we cannot turn back.

It will be interesting to see what we will do with the old gas grid. We will use the places where the grid needs to be serviced due to age as areas to change to the future style housing first. One such area is part of Overvecht in Utrecht but that is only a proposal now, albeit a good one. It is one of the few test areas in big cties and thus a good learning experience.

Parts of the gas grid might be repurposed possibly for hydrogen but i think those plans are very much in their infancy. 

Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: November 23, 2019, 10:09:34 AM »
It might be hidden in post #49?

Posted by: vox_mundi
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:00:27 PM »Insert Quote
AI Application Able to Predict El Niño Events Up to 18 Months in Advance

And another new approach:

If this model has the accuracy claimed, expect a new low/near new low in the 2020-2022 period.

Also see link #56 in that thread.,2872.msg237349.html#new

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 22, 2019, 03:10:10 PM »
I want nothing in Ramones style:

If you prefer more poppy music this is Morrissey style:

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 22, 2019, 02:48:36 PM »
The School Strike for Climate and XR are two different groups with different methods.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: November 22, 2019, 02:38:22 PM »
It is hard to predict El Nino/La Nina a long way out in time so they studied if mapping on the lunar cycles works.

They work from the max tide for EN (and reverse for LN).

With the culmination of the 18.6-year cycle of the Moon in 2006 and again in 2024-25, also called the Major Lunar Standstill, we are afforded the unique opportunity to observe the monthly, annual, and 18.6-year wanderings of the Moon.

It was found that El-Niño tended to occur in the 1st, 10th, and 13th years after the maximum diurnal tide in the 18.6-yr cycle

so 2006 + 13 years is 2019 but the max tide is not on january 1st so there is some overlap with 2020. Another group predict a 2020 EN based on a completely different method (annoyingly i can´t find the link but quite sure it´s somewhere on the ASIF).

So we only have to wait a year for our first datapoint.  8)


Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 21, 2019, 05:51:16 PM »
Thanks´s only slightly worse then i thought...  ;)

And RikW yes it is very complicated so it is interesting to see what solutions will come up.

It would be great if the EU actually made up some really sensible policies but so far they have failed. Allowing burning biomass to be counted as green fuel is wrong.
A case could be made for a select group of biomass to be used, lets say the part of municipal green maintenance waste that you can´t compost or use otherwise but that should be a small stream.

Of course this is a ploy to use the old plants.
It serves someones interest but not that of the planet or the interest of the people in the Netherlands. Sadly our politicians are still stuck in the past.

Wiebes snapt zorgen over biomassa, maar vindt energiebron verdedigbaar


Het komende jaar steekt het kabinet in totaal 11,4 miljard euro aan subsidie in biomassacentrales die belangrijk zijn voor het bereiken van de klimaatdoelen. Maar er bestaan veel vragen over de mate van duurzaamheid en de bijkomende luchtvervuiling.

"Hoe voorkomen we dat we biomassacentrales subsidiëren die niet duurzaam zijn?", vroeg D66-Kamerlid Matthijs Sienot aan Wiebes. Nu kunnen namelijk biomassacentrales zonder vergunningen en normen worden gebouwd voor de verwarming van bijvoorbeeld zwembaden of voor kleine wijken van zo'n twaalfduizend huizen.


Die centrales stoten CO2, stikstof en fijnstof uit. Dus met die duurzaamheid valt het wel mee, vindt D66.


Volgens Wiebes is er onder wetenschappers consensus dat biomassa nodig is om de klimaatdoelen te halen.


Onlangs kondigde Wiebes aan dat de subsidie voor de kleinere biomassaketels en pelletkachels vanaf volgend jaar wordt beëindigd. Het idee was om zo minder broeikasgassen uit te stoten, maar de luchtkwaliteit lijdt er te veel onder.

Overigens wees Wiebes er in het debat nog op dat barbecues en open haarden de grootste luchtvervuilers zijn. "Maar daar durft niemand zijn handen politiek aan te branden."

I guess they had a debate.

We are about to invest 11,4 billion euros into subsidies for biomass while it causes particulate pollution and does not help the co2 problem either.

At the moments biomass burning plants can be build without permits or specific norms for heating swimming pools or up to 12000 houses.

Wiebes says there is a concensus among scientists that biomass burning is needed to hit the climate targets. (Bet there is some selective shopping there, you could try some ambition & empathy with the future generations, K ).

Next year the subsidy for small biomass kettles and pellet heaters will be removed. The idea of the subsidy was to decrease greenhouse gas emissions but it increased particulate matter pollution too much.

BBQs and open hearth are the biggest PM polluters but no one wants to make laws for those because it is political suicide. that´s not to hopeful. Lets hope we get some severe restrictions on the type of biomass but i am not counting on that because there is so much they need to do and as ever they prefer the easy way out.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: November 21, 2019, 04:48:04 PM »
A third of tropical African plants face extinction

A third of tropical African plants are on the path to extinction, according to a new assessment.

Much of western Africa, Ethiopia, and parts of Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the hardest hit regions, standing to lose more than 40% of their richness of plants.

Species at risk include trees, shrubs, herbs and woody vines.

Threats include deforestation, population growth and climate change, the scientists said.


Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 21, 2019, 03:02:40 PM »
Melting Mongolian Ice Patches Threaten Ancient Practice Of Reindeer Herding

Nestled in the high-altitude Sayan Mountains in northern Mongolia perennial ice patches have long been central to the health of domestic reindeer and the lives of those that tend to them. Even during the hottest summer months, these “munkh mus” patches persisted, providing crucial water and cool reprieve for overheated reindeer.

But soaring temperatures in the region are melting this eternal ice at rates never seen in modern history. 


in the last two decades Mongolian temperatures have increased more than 1.4°C (2.5°F) above the 20th-century average – and the Tsaatan are seeing those impacts in real-time.


The Tsaatan are literally at the front lines of climate change. These are folks that contributed nothing to the problem that we find ourselves in globally, but they're the ones paying the first price."

Between 2016 and 2018, interviewees said that for the first time in their memory, ice patches are disappearing in the height of summer. Reindeer can easily overheat and rely on munkh mus for a reprieve from the summer heat, as well as for fresh drinking water supplies and to escape disease-carrying insects. Access to these ice patches is “critical” for the health and welfare of these animals.

"Losing the ice compromises reindeer health and hygiene and leaves them more exposed to disease, and impacts the well-being of the people who depend on the reindeer,” said veterinary researcher and study co-author Jocelyn Whitworth.

Once the ice is gone the herds will be gone too and so they lose their way of life, they will lose their world.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 20, 2019, 03:28:08 PM »
A request for our german members.

Recently there was a vote on the maximum speed on german roads and that got voted down.
What was the background of this vote and why did the vote go the way it went?


We are changing from gas to electric while currently the area next to the dutch border is transitioning to gas. Is nat gas just a (temporary) solution for the areas using coal? What is your national energy transition policy?

Thanks in advance!

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 20, 2019, 03:16:44 PM »
Your welcome.

The nice thing about the current situation is that the government has finally been forced to act.
Much of the debate is ofc still cringe-worthy.

A VVD member suggested to cut down the number of nature reserves which is maybe not possible but that depends on EU law which i don´t know the specifics of. And some guy wrote in a letter to the newspaper that ´Since the judges now tell the government what to do the separation of powers (trias politica) has clearly failed.´


In Drenthe, Groningen en Zuid-Holland gaan vijftig waterstofbussen rijden in het openbaar vervoer.


Op een volle tank kan een bus 400 kilometer afleggen.

"Nu zijn er nog weinig tankstations voor waterstof, maar dat is natuurlijk een kip-eiverhaal. Deze vijftig bussen gaan straks allemaal tanken. Dat kan net het zetje in de rug zijn dat rijden op waterstof nodig heeft", aldus de minister.

Op dit moment rijden in Nederland acht bussen op waterstof. In totaal zijn er zo'n vijfhonderd bussen die rondrijden in Nederland zonder emissies uit te stoten.

De overheid heeft als doelstelling dat na 2025 elke nieuwe bus emissievrij gaat rijden en vanaf 2030 moeten alle bussen in het openbaar vervoer emissievrij rijden.

50 hydrogen powered buses will be deployed in Drenthe, Groningen and Zuid-Holland

Map here:

The bus runs 400 km on a full tank.
There are very few hydrogen stations and they hope this will help build up the network.

Currently we have
8 hydrogen buses
about 500 emission free buses , so electric ones.

Current targets:
2025 every new bus needs to be emission free
2030 whole fleet should be emission free

Costs are 22,5 million euros but i have no idea what the worth of the same contract for old dirty buses would be. No mentions of specific investments in the hydrogen stations but it would be logical to put them at the bus stations (the depot one).

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 20, 2019, 02:13:00 PM »
Or that whole phase of his career.  ;D

I love this story of the very early Alice Cooper band:

Shep then arranged an audition for the band with composer and renowned record producer Frank Zappa, who was looking to sign bizarre music acts to his new record label, Straight Records.[16] For the audition Zappa told them to come to his house "at 7 o'clock." The band mistakenly assumed he meant 7 o'clock in the morning. Being woken up by a band willing to play that particular brand of psychedelic rock at seven in the morning impressed Zappa enough for him to sign them to a three-album deal.  8)

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 20, 2019, 01:49:56 PM »
Australia fires: 'Catastrophic' alerts in South Australia and Victoria


Where's the danger?
Fires in South Australia (SA) prompted emergency warnings on Wednesday as temperatures neared 45C (113F) in parts of the state, exacerbated by winds of up to 90km/h (55mph).

Officials switched off electricity to about 10,000 homes and businesses to reduce the risk of new fires. Such blazes are most commonly sparked by winds bringing down power lines.

"All areas of the state are in danger today, with the potential for fires which do start to be uncontrollable by fire crews," a Country Fire Service spokeswoman told the BBC.


Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:47:43 PM »
Real communication is when I talk to you in real life with all non-verbal communication
This is how Aspie's get excluded .

That definition is how everything here gets excluded. There are different ways to communicate and they all vary in scope and effect. I much prefer forums over twitter because you can go a bit more in depth with longer messages and attachments as needed. And it has less clutter too.

None of the modern communication forms will go away so just teach wise use but that is hard because the modern facebook mobile phone like addiction thing is new to most adults too.

Then again they technically have to teach the kids that consumerism is bad while that is basically the only thing they have known...

Science / Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:14:41 PM »
Amazing what you can do with actual measurements.  :o

Nitrogen fertilizers are incredibly efficient, but they make climate change a lot worse


Conventional analysis of N2O emissions from human activities are estimated from various indirect sources. This include country-by-country reporting, global nitrogen fertilizer production, the areal extent of nitrogen-fixing crops and the use of manure fertilizers.

Our study instead used actual atmospheric concentrations of N2O from dozens of monitoring stations all over the world. We then used atmospheric modeling that explains how air masses move across and between continents to infer the expected emissions of specific regions.

We found global N2O emissions have increased over the past two decades and the fastest growth has been since 2009. China and Brazil are two countries that stand out. This is associated with a spectacular increase in the use of nitrogen fertilizers and the expansion of nitrogen-fixing crops such as soybean.

We also found the emissions reported for those two countries, based on a methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are significantly lower than those inferred from N2O levels in the atmosphere over those regions.

This mismatch seems to arise from the fact that emissions in those regions are proportionally higher than the use of nitrogen fertilizers and manure. This is a departure from the linear relationship used to report emissions by most countries.

There appears to be a level of nitrogen past which plants can no longer effectively use it. Once that threshold is passed in croplands, N2O emissions grow exponentially.


all future emission scenarios consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement require N2O emissions to stop growing and, in most cases, to decline—between 10% and 30% by mid-century.

Interestingly, emissions from the U.S. and Europe have not grown for over two decades, yet crop yields across these regions increased or remained steady.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 17, 2019, 11:56:52 PM »
There is a ton of links to detailed research in the article.

The trick is that their urine is concentrated and it works best in dry places. They keep doing it in the same places forever if they can so they are great samplers collecting stuff and preserving it yes, yes.  ;)

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