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Messages - Rod

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:48:52 AM »
PS. In case it wasn’t clear, I would rather read posts from someone who understands the science and posts his theories, even if I don’t agree with them, than keep reading all the BS from people who have made no effort to understand the science.

The discussion on this forum about the condition of the ice over the last few weeks has not been grounded in science. 

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:15:13 AM »
Bbr - you have some crazy predictions, but at least you always try to back them up and have some data to support your theories. 

Most of the posts on this forum for the last couple of months are not even worth reading. 

It is too bad.  I have loved following these discussions for the last few years. Anyway, keep pitching your theory. It is probably wrong in my opinion, but at least you provide something to consider.

Most of the other posts these days don’t provide anything other than opinions that have no factual basis.  That is why I stopped commenting, and why I don’t read these forums much anymore.

Good luck to you Bbr!   I have always respected your tenacity.  Keep posting the data so that others can consider what it means. 

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 05:51:40 AM »
The ice looks like shit!

Extent has an 85% margin of error. 

Regardless of where the extent numbers turn out this year, the actual amount of ice is about as low as it has ever been.  It is obvious to anyone who takes the time to study Worldview. 





4
The forum / Re: WHY THE CRAZY QUESTIONS TO POST AND ENTER SITE
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:34:40 AM »
Maybe there should be a quiz before you can post to rule out stupid comments???   It might shut me up sometimes 😝

PS. I hope this does not turn out to be my most liked comment. 🤔

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:04:13 AM »
I forgot to add this post from Lars Kaleschke today. It shows areas where extent is likely to start dropping soon. 


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 02:55:32 AM »
I just have one very scientific thing to say ... the ice looks like Shit!

The Laptev and Beaufort are getting hammered.  The extent in Beaufort is going up, but the ice that is getting flushed into the south Beaufort is the last of the multi year 5+ ice. 

This year is unlikely to break records for extent (although it is still too early to rule that out for certain) but, the ice going into the freezing season is going to be about the worst it has ever been. 

Just play around on Worldview for a few minutes.  It looks terrible.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 01:45:25 AM »
I did not know he was a scientist. There are lots of people who say things that are not credible this time of the year.

If he is a scientist, I apologize for being rude.  But, I still think he was wrong in his assessment. Lots of us have science backgrounds and are able to understand what is happening.

Philopek, I’m sorry for insulting you if you are a scientist. But, I don’t think your conclusions were correct.  Anyway, I apologize for being rude. 

8
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 05:35:43 AM »
I’m not taking sides in this discussion, but this was an article that really pissed me off today! 

Lowe's spent billions on share buybacks, zero on severance for laid-off workers

Quote
Lowe's is laying off thousands of workers after hiking quarterly dividends and spending billions to repurchase company shares.
The home improvement chain isn't offering severance to laid-off workers, some of whom have been at Lowe's for a decade or more.
Lowe's last December announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of stock, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.

Quote
The sudden job losses are hitting some workers hard. "I'm behind in my house note and my property taxes," said Patricia Wilkerson, 59, of Dayton, Texas, who said she got no notice before losing her part-time, seasonal position at Lowe's and is receiving no severance. "Corporations are stretching people trying to get more with less."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lowes-layoffs-2019-retailer-spent-billions-on-share-buybacks-zero-on-severance-for-laid-off-workers/



9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:29:24 AM »

Those blue zones are real areas of freezing temperatures at the time the satellite made its measurements.

I’m not familiar with the map that Friv posted, and I don’t know where that data comes from.  But the blue areas seem consistent with what we have seen on worldview in bands 3-6-7 over the last few days.

I wish Sterks would not have quit, but his fight with TeaPotty was over a completely different area than the blue zones in that image. 

People need to read carefully, consider their arguments, and then present them in a respectful way. 

The battle between Sterks and TeaPotty on this issue was just silly!   I’m not sure they even would have disagreed with each other if they took the time to compare the data and think about what it meant- AND MOST IMPORTANTLY ITS LIMITATIONS. 

Too many people on here forget that no data set on the arctic is perfect.  Worldview is the best we have but it is only 2D and mostly covered in clouds. 

We all like to post our opinions and sometimes we get jumped on when others disagree.  That is the nature of the internet.  Let’s just each try to be a little more polite in our criticisms and a little more understanding in the limitations of the data. 

I’m tired of seeing people delete their accounts. 


10
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 10, 2019, 07:28:05 AM »
Neven, I feel so bad for your unfortunate loss this summer.  I feel equally bad that in your absence these forums have divulged into childish BS.  This forum was your creation, and is an important part of the study of AGW that is watched by many people worldwide.

My blood pressure rises every time I log on because there is almost no real science being discussed anymore.   Even on the main threads, people are pushing crazy theories that anyone who studies this stuff knows are wrong.  That makes these forums look bad when outsiders look in to see what people are saying.

Oren is probably the most knowledgeable person left who still regularly posts.  But he is so nice that people ignore him even when he tries to point out errors and put down fights. 

I know that this forum is yours and you have always managed it yourself.  However, I think if you would make Oren, or someone like him, a moderator and give them some authority it would make people listen to him and make your life easier, and make these forums better. 

I thank you very much for what you have created!   I am in no way trying to be critical, but I think if you enlisted some help it would make things easier for you and better for your audience. 

Just my thoughts.  Thank you again for all of your hard work!   


11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:47:57 AM »
I certainly did not mean to be rude Renerpho, and I am sorry if it came off that way. 

Your post was on point and answers DrTskoul’s question.  I was just pointing out the possible new record is something different. 

Dr. Mottram is a scientist with DMI.  She is pretty much the most authoritative figure on Greenland ice sheet melt of anyone who regularly comments on it.  I would accept DMI’s data over NSIDC when it comes to the Greenland ice sheet. 

I’m not sure how they calculate volume, but they have a way.  I don’t doubt the information in the article from AGU Eos, but I will wait until it is verified from other scientists. 

12
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:27:05 AM »
The NSIDC chart that Renerpho linked compares the melting extent between 2012 and 2019 over the ice sheet.  The purported record is volume lost which is different, and more important if true. 

AGU’s Eos is usually a pretty reliable source.  However, Ruth Mottram will have the final say based upon the DMI data. 

She knocked off for the weekend about four hours ago saying that her mentions were exploding on Twitter, and implying she needed a break.

We will need to wait and see if she verifies these numbers on Monday.

In any event, it has been a very remarkable few days of melting.   

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 02:56:01 AM »
Greenland Ice Sheet Beats All-Time 1-Day Melt Record - Eos

https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 05:25:39 AM »
This was posted by Zack today.  I’m not sure what thread it belongs in, but more people will see it in this one. 

Many of you already have this data, but it is a nice little cheat sheet for those of us that don’t always remember the numbers. 

I’m saving it for a quick reference guide.  Maybe others will want to as well. 

15
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:52:42 AM »
Dr. Robert Rohde is the lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. This is pretty interesting (and worrisome):

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:31:03 AM »
I have already simply proven the ice was already almost about to mass melt before the GAC.

So why isn't this accepted?


It is impossible to prove what would have happened in the absence of the GAC.  You, and several others have put forth compelling evidence that the ice was already in trouble before the GAC took over.

However, it is also impossible to ignore the huge drops in extent that occurred during the GAC.  Correlation does not equal causation, but that does not mean it should be ignored. 

Common sense would dictate that if you take a lot of crushed up ice and put it in a blender and shake it around, that will have an effect.  It is less clear to me that in 2012 the halocline was breached and warm waters mixed upwards.  If that had happened we might have seen a BOE.

In any event, what makes this season interesting is that we can compare what happens to the fragile ice in the absence of a GAC with what happened in 2012. 

Of course, if the weather changes again and brings strong storms into the arctic in the next couple of weeks, that will screw up our control. 

It is unfortunate, that we have to watch this experiment play out in real time on the only planet we have. 

17

If you have an agenda that you want to promote, it's not a crime to do some marketing. Once people realize that it's ok to believe that the Arctic BOE might not come for 50 years, they can approach it with a different attitude.

Groupthink is a real thing.

This asshole has been playing us.   He is straight from WUWT with a more savvy way of trying to sow discontent.   

18
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.

Wikipedia

Internet troll

Quote
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 01:04:01 AM »
Bob Henson at Weather Underground posted a good article today about the heatwave heading for Greenland.   

Heat Wave Heads North: Massive Week of Melting Likely in Arctic

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Heads-North-Massive-Week-Melting-Likely-Arctic

He even cited Subgeometer’s forecast in post #4877.  NOTE: I can’t get the link to work when I copy and paste the quote, but if you click the link to the full article above, you will find the link to Subgeometer’s post. 

Quote
Another region that bears watching over the next few days is the area north of Greenland, just east of to where the last remaining expanses of thick multiyear sea ice are clinging to the islands clustered at the north end of the Canadian Arctic. As noted in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, very mild air, warming even more as it descends, will be flowing off the north coast of Greenland in the next several days. Satellite imagery over the last few days shows a crack developing where a large zone of Arctic sea ice is attached to the north coast of Greenland.

20
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:07:26 AM »
More sad news for arctic wildlife.

Over 200 dead reindeer found on Norway's Arctic Svalbard

https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/over-200-dead-reindeer-found-on-norways-arctic-svalbard-1.1564238906266

21
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: July 29, 2019, 04:53:14 AM »
I live in the Midwest.  I specifically plant native wildflowers for the birds and insects. 

My anecdotal observations agree 100% with this article.  The monarch butterflies are nothing like they used to be.  Even my kids mentioned it the other day. 

I do have milkweed growing in my yard and a few monarchs, but it is nothing like it was even ten years ago.  Unfortunately, milkweed is a hard plant to cultivate and you can’t buy it at garden stores.  I dug up a few plants along the road about 15 years ago and planted them in my yard.  It is an annual so it spreads by seed and never pops up where you want it to.  Most people who want pretty manicured lawns and gardens will never propagate something like wild milkweed because it is really hard to control where it decides to sprout up each year. 

The herbicides around the farms have all but wiped it out in the wild.  After I read this article I drove around on gravel roads out in the country and could not find a single milkweed plant anywhere.   

It is sad what we are losing.  Monarchs are beautiful, but they are so specialized (between needing milkweed for larva and wintering in a small area in Mexico) that I am worried they are not going to be around much longer. 

Link to the full article:

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/07/22/Scientists-scramble-to-learn-why-monarch-butterflies-are-dying-so-quickly/6961563481223/

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:52:06 PM »
With all the talk of volume, and much well-placed cynicism regarding the data, is there a time of the year the data can be considered more accurate (e.g. absence of melt ponds)? If so, perhaps then we will have a lot more info on the impact of this year's weather on volume.

PIOMAS is the best model we have, but it is still a model.  For observational data, when the ice is cold and frozen, ie. no water on top of it, the SMOS thickness data is the best we have.  Lars Kaleschke is the expert on that data product. Google his name and SMOS and you will find lots of information. 

There is a new satellite that launched last fall called ICESat-2 that will hopefully provide very accurate information about sea ice thickness.  Unfortunately, it’s gridded data product is not yet available. 

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 04:20:47 AM »

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

I wondered the same thing.  The area numbers are very hard to interpret this time of the year.  They can change for many reasons, and unless he knows a Russian or American submarine commander, there is no way to know how thick the ice in the CAB is right now.
PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC sea ice area seems the only logical way to do it without physical observations, and here it is.....

Note that it seems to have lost 1 metre of thickness since the 2000's, but at mid-July was at 2.4 metres.   Usually what happens now is that scorn is placed upon the data for being awkward.

I decided last night I was done posting in the melting thread because Rich has accomplished his purpose of turning scientific discussions into his personal activism and it pisses me off! 

But this point is important and needs to be addressed.  PIOMAS is a model.  It is helpful, but it is not real data. I work in the environmental field and deal with models everyday. 

I doubt many others here can say that.  We know PIOMAS makes many mistakes, but it is the best we have so we use it.  That does not mean we can blindly say when it predicts a certain volume of ice in a place we can clearly see on worldview is wrong we should accept its output.

Area is also notoriously bad this time of year.  That is why JAXA and NSIDC use extent to measure the summer minimum. 

Dividing a fictitious number by a known bad number does not give any real data.

The best information we have is what we see on worldview.  The next best info is the extent data that JAXA and NSIDC provide. 

Models are useful, but they are not real data. 

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 02:41:02 AM »
These discussions are getting tiring!

He was responding, in a nice way, to your comment about SSTs.

You changed the subject to 2m temps over the ice covered ESS, and post #2368 is talking about temps on Wrangel Island. 

Nothing you ever say supports your position. It is like you just want to argue for the sake of arguing.



25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 24, 2019, 12:07:41 AM »
In areas where sea ice abuts fast ice, the shallow water depth can allow pressure ridges to actually anchor to the sea floor. These structures are called stamukha;

Thank you for your post Ossifrage.   

A few days ago we were discussing images of ice scouring on the sea floor in the area of the ESAS that Natalia Shakhova provided in her 2017 paper, and I was struggling to think of a mechanism that could have caused it.

I completely forgot about stamukha. 

Quote
Stamukha – fixed ice which remained on a shallow of the coast or on a stamik. S. can form on nameless banks, not designated on maps, at the depths over 20 m. The cases are known when S. was formed at a much bigger depth. Around S. ice belt is formed up to 10 miles and more. In summer S. melts and disintegrates, forming mass of crushed and chafed ice, dangerous for vessels, especially in poor visibility conditions. Such hummock ice in shoals of the Arctic Region is a hazard for navigation. The East Siberian Sea has the maximum quantity of S. in the Russian Arctic Region – 71 %, due to harsh weather conditions and shallowness of the sea. In the eastern part of the sea, the largest S. is registered with the maximum draft 35 m. S. often form in the southwest along the borderline of the land ice from the New Siberia Island to the Ayon Island, along the Chukchi coastline, and on banks to the west of the Wrangel Island.

https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-319-24237-8_496

26
The forum / Re: How many of you are scientists?
« on: July 22, 2019, 03:22:17 AM »
I was a scientist in biomedical studies a very long time ago. For the past almost 20 years I have been an environmental attorney. 

Edit: I’m probably overstating that I was a scientist.  I did biomedical research for about 4 years and I am a coauthor on two peer reviewed publications regarding cancer research and neuropharmacology research.  However, I do not have a PhD.

I have been an environmental attorney suing polluters since about 2002. 

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 03:14:50 AM »
Let me rephrase: I am not offended by bbr suggesting that such a discussion be moved. Such suggestions are made all the time. Nevertheless I do think the discussion is relevant and directly related to what may be about to happen in the next few weeks. Now we have it on 2 threads lol.

I would just like to help calm down the tone.

Your question is the key question right now for this melting season. As we move past the peak insolation, what is more important, sunshine or a GAC? 

Lots of people think the GAC was not the key driver of the record low extent in 2012. 

This year, with a dipole possibly setting up at the same time as the 2012 GAC, we can compare the results.  It is a big deal, and you were not wrong for voicing your speculation on which is more important. 

We are all just speculating, and we wait and see what happens. 

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 01:58:26 AM »
Chill out bbr!  You are taking advantage of the fact Neven is not here and being an ass.  I like your weather forecasts, and I think you often have valuable things to add to the discussion, but that does not give you a right to pretend you know everything and insult other members!

This melting season is an important one.  It has been since May.  Let’s see if the long range forecasts verify before we start talking doom and gloom. 

Personally, I have thought for a long time that if the ice in the Beaufort melts we will see a new record.  But, it still has not melted and we are long past peak insulation. 

If the predicted dipole actually happens, it will give us an opportunity to compare against the GAC of 2012. 

No one knows which is more important, because it has never happened in this way before. That is why we watch and compare and see what the outcome is.  Insulting people who have different views than you is not helpful, and it detracts from the good comments that you often make. 

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 03:21:13 AM »
The longevity of the 'Crack' along most of the North American shore ["NAC: North American Crack" if it becomes a 'thing'.] (currently along most of Greenland and most of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago) is disturbing. 

In spite of what the weather models sometimes report, the actual temperatures in the northern CAA have been very warm over the past several days.   As discussed in previous posts, on July 14, 2019 the weather station at Alert, Nunavut hit 21C the warmest temperature ever measured north of 80 degrees Lat. 

A team of field researchers just wrapped up a 2 week trip on Axel Heiberg and reported widespread permafrost melting.  One of the researchers, professor Gordon Oz Osinski, said “in the 20 yrs since I started fieldwork in the Arctic I’ve never had such a long stretch of sun & temperatures in the teens [C].”  To find the thread, open Twitter and search #AxelHeiberg2019. 

Below is the link to the gif showing the permafrost melting.  It is definitely worth a click.  Pretty incredible sight when you consider that is happening at 79.8 degrees north latitude!

https://t.co/5AFY1BKTVr

I think the crack that has opened (for a few weeks now) north of the CAA will likely be persistent, and could be significant this year. 




30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 06:17:19 AM »
Maybe I misunderstood him, but I thought he was talking about the ESS.  I don’t think there are any glaciers over there calving ice bergs, but I’m happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.  🤔

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 03:53:06 AM »
edmountain mentioned this earlier, but I think it is very important and worth repeating. The CAA is heating up even though it has been covered in clouds. 

This is an all time record at the northern most weather station. The lower temps in the channels are because of the ice, but it will be melting.

We could see a lift off of the ice from the CAA this year.  That will be significant if it happens.

32
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:23:36 AM »
Rich, I have stuck up for you several times this season.  Even when you pissed off A-Team with your ridiculous theories. 

I thought you were actually concerned about Sea ice and learning,  even when you attacked Gerontocrat and others for their contributions. 

Now I’m starting to think you are just here to concern Troll. 

There are plenty of places on Reddit and Facebook to do that. 

You have been way more disruptive than Hyperion ever was.  Please take your BS elsewhere.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 01:35:31 AM »
If UCMiami says there is a “very low probability” of a sensational finish in 2019, then I would say he is just guessing.

But I have read through his post history a couple of times now, and I do not see where he said what you quoted. 



34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
I keep coming back to A-Team's May 23 post that shows six months of fairly steady transpolar drift.  This means all the ice between, basically, the North Pole and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) is first year ice (FYI) and therefore 'easy' to melt, except for that ice that is now in the highest latitudes (due to shortest melt season being there).  Does this make the possibility of a lot of it going 'poof' more likely than other years? I think so.  The Laptev Bite, being where some of this FYI was, may reach the NP, or at least closer to it than has happened in recent decades (centuries).

The comments about the CAB being protected are just silly.  The extent numbers are higher in the CAB because the ice keeps getting exported through the Greenland/Svalbard/FJL line. Once that ice passes that line, it is toast.  Even if it takes a while to melt. 

The Russian side is going to bite deep towards the pole.  Even in this “moderate” weather there is a lot of heat in Siberia.

It is going to come down to whether or not the Beaufort starts clearing out quick.  The line of open water north of the CAA indicates that if it does, the ice could become an ice island this year.

If that happens, look out! 

We don’t know what the weather will bring in the next few weeks.  But, we do know the MYI is significantly lower this year than it was in 2012.  The fact that the ice is being exported to the Atlantic does not help matters, even if it helps keep the extent numbers higher. 



35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 04:32:54 AM »
The GFS is trending towards a cool Arctic

Does that mean cyclones, or cool and calm?

I’m totally confused too.  I think the take home message is that this is an expert interpreting long term model results.  His interpretations are accurate, but long term models suck so we will wait and see what happens.  😝

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 03:44:24 AM »
July 8 is very clear in Worldview for both 2012 and 2019 on the pacific side.  These are the comparisons that continue to strike me as the most important currently if we are talking about “extent” as our endpoint.

If the Beaufort becomes a killing zone as most believe it will, it looks like 2019 will definitely beat 2012 on this side of the arctic.

The current situation around Wrangel Island is incredible.




37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 02:03:43 AM »
Dr. Judah Cohen has updated his Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts. 

It is a little too technical for my understanding, but some of our weather experts might enjoy taking a look at it.  The link is below:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 07, 2019, 03:08:47 AM »
Incredible image posted by Zack today showing some of the Greenland melt ponds.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:13:00 AM »
The ice looks like shit.

Agreed 😬

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:11:13 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

Bottom melt will finish all those floes by some time in August. It is 2-3 m thick ice constantly imported from CAB. Not something to happen in a couple of weeks. It will ruin your extent numbers? Not sure, but it will definitely finish with some of the thickest blocks around. This didn’t happen before the 21st Century, so we can call it a “millennial” born out of AGW.


I’m grasping at straws here hoping things won’t be too terrible.  I’m always torn on whether the new record will be good or bad. 

Maybe it gets more people to realize that AGW is a big deal and we should do something about it?  In the age of Trump I doubt it.  If we need a BOE for a wake up call I hope it waits until he is long gone! 

I have kids I worry about, and things are not looking bright for their future 😥

41
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:14:45 AM »
Very sad things being seen in the Bering this year. 

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 06:11:39 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 11:45:27 PM »

Looking somewhat toasty for the ESS...

If Climate Reanalyzer is even close on its 3 day maximum temperature forecast, it will be more than toasty.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 04, 2019, 05:48:07 AM »
The ADS NIPR page is sending me to Twitter...  :-\

I hope they will fix the problem soon!

Trump took it over.  You will be sent to his Twitter account showing an arctic full of ice with tanks rolling over it and fireworks being fired over healthy polar bears who have American flag tattoos and proclaim “he is the best dictator ever!” 

EDIT: Sorry for the off topic post but I could not resist in light of the BS that is going to happen in the USA in a few hours.  Juan set it up too good to stay quiet. 

45
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 02, 2019, 01:59:23 AM »
the underlying thoughts and the resulting nomenclature would have fit the USSR very well

I am simply suggesting a way to keep the peace.  I agree 100% with your sentiment, but it would be a loss to the forums if A-Team quit posting. 

Now, at risk of being banned, I will say that in my profession I deal with environmental experts almost everyday.  The ones who are so insecure that they constantly need their egos stroked are usually not very good. 

46
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 02, 2019, 12:45:13 AM »
Regarding the discussion on the “Test space” thread, would it be possible to create a sticky thread in the Arctic Sea Ice section and only allow A-Team and possibly a few others to post there?

I think that would address A-Team’s concerns. 

In an open forum it seems almost impossible to police comments without completely chilling discussion.   

I think you do a good job of banning people when it becomes necessary.  But it is impossible to make everyone happy with everyone else’s posts.   

47
I’m just messing with you Bbr. People give you a hard time because you have a crazy theory about a new impending ice age.

I view you as one of the best weather forecasters on the forum.  I don’t agree with all of your theories, I do respect what you have to say. 

Thank you for being an active participant on these forums 👍🏻

48
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 30, 2019, 03:43:10 AM »

either way i'm out of here, just wanted to provide something to consider but won't take further part in fruitless discussions as long as some participants don't even verify or falsify a statement but continue to stick stubbornly to wrong assumptions.

I think you misinterpreted the comments mag.  This is a very important and not well studied subject.  Different people have different opinions, but they are all just opinions. 

Please keep contributing.  I like your common sense approach.  I also respect what others have to say based upon what they have learned. 

It is never good for the conversation when someone says F**k this I’m out.  Keep posting.  We all went to hear what you have to say.   

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 30, 2019, 02:48:45 AM »
The ice is very blue!

Great shot Kate!  I had the same thought when people started discussing Kane Basin.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 05:06:10 AM »
A quick and dirty insolation calculation could made by making a grayscale version of Worldview's truecolor image for the date, ...

It would definitely be quick and dirty.  Gerontocrat was not kidding when he talked about the cost of developing a model that would accurately account for the cloud effects on albedo. 

Clouds are very, very, very complicated.  They are all different.  Different clouds let in different wavelengths of light that have different energy.  Different clouds also block upwelling wavelengths of light and reflect them back to the surface.

There are many papers on this topic.  The take home message is that it is not a simple matter of saying it’s cloudy so the Ice is protected.  Sometimes the clouds make things worse.

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