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Messages - Rod

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1
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: Today at 04:35:12 AM »
Michael Hauber, weatherdude and Walrus like to cherry pick facts and try to get people to argue with each other. 

Oren called out MH for it a few weeks ago, but then let it go.

Personally, I don’t think deniers should be allowed to post on this forum.  It is easy for them to say “oh, but I had a different interpretation of the weather set up.”

They can post that “different” opinion on denier websites like WUWT if it is even around anymore.

Unfortunately, a few years ago these forums got overrun with the political threads and the science has suffered ever since.

I think the mods are doing the best they can. However, they are much more lenient with BS than any mods I have ever dealt with on other forums I have participated in the past.

I see nothing wrong with banning obvious trolls. 

The majority of the people on the sea ice forums want to talk in good faith. It chills discussions when trolls come in and cherry pick data to try to cause arguments.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 10, 2020, 03:42:29 AM »
Paul, as always, I thank you for your outlook.

You and many others on here are very talented meteorologists. Your forecasts are always welcome.

However, we have learned through many years of watching that anything past three days is a coin toss.

That is why I posted the weather for today.  And the satellite for today.

I think going forward we should pay more attention to what is happening now, and stop trying to be Nostradamus about what will happen with a forecast that is impossible to accurately predict.

I’m not saying I don’t appreciate seeing what you guys think will happen next week, but let’s get realistic about the probability of what will actually occur. Anything over three days out has very little reliability.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 10, 2020, 12:54:44 AM »
There is a low stirring up that ice in the Beaufort today. It might not be very strong, but you can see the effects of the winds on the clouds on worldview.

The high over the CAB is also letting a lot of sunshine onto the ice today.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 12:15:31 AM »
That is not what he said.  They are different data products that vary in their ability to handle melt ponds and wet ice. 

You can’t bank on some absolute number such as saying “NSIDC area will always be around 600,000 km^2 below the UH AMSR2 3.125km area data.” 

That might be correct today, but it could be different next week. 

Unfortunately, we don’t have a great way to measure the ice. Every method has its limitations. The best we can do is watch and compare and do our best to look at each tool and try to understand what it is telling us.

EDIT: I was typing my response at the same time as Oren. Sorry for being redundant.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 04:07:47 AM »

No chance


That is a bold statement to make when the ice looks like it does, and we still have over month to go in the melting season. 

Quote
I never understood why posters get excited about lower latitude, easier to melt sea ice, melting out. <Deleted this part, a strawman indeed. O>

That is a straw man argument that belittles and mischaracterizes the valuable contributions from the legitimate members of this forum.

As always, thank you for your contributions dude 🤟🏻 Tell your friends at WUWT we said hi 😝. 

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 01:53:41 AM »
PSA:

In case anyone missed the great images posted by Wipneus (reply 3424) and Lars Kaleschke (reply 3427) on the Home brew thread, make sure you check them out:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg279879.html#msg279879

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg279969.html#msg279969

Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:51:53 AM »
What is the causing the rich Aqua like blue color in the Barents sea. Is obvious a very large area, seen easily on Worldview today. Could it be an Algae Bloom??

This is a good and very important question. These phytoplankton blooms are becoming more and more common. They have ecological impacts and have an impact on carbon uptake.

Phytoplankton Bloom in the Barents Sea

Quote
Clear skies over northern Russia and Scandinavia reveal magnificent swirls of blue and turquoise in the Barents Sea. This true-color image, captured by the NOAA-20 satellite on July 30, 2018, shows a large phytoplankton bloom, made up of millions of tiny plant organisms that thrive in the nutrient-rich waters of the Arctic. Phytoplankton blooms are common in the Barents Sea in late July and August, thanks to a combination of 24-hour sunlight, minimal ice cover and relatively warm surface waters.

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/phytoplankton-bloom-barents-sea

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 02:49:50 AM »
As more evidence of the exceptional melting year we are having, yesterday the ice caps on FJL melted more than they usually do in an entire summer!

Quote
As a result of the Arctic sea ice collapse, record of melt runoff has been reached yesterday and today over the Franz Joseph ice caps (Russian Arctic). In 1 day,  the MAR-GFS model suggests that Franz Joseph ice caps have lost the equivalent of melt over a whole normal summer!

https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/1291084643085832193?s=21

Dr. Fettweis (the person quoted above) is a climate scientist at the University of Liege in Belgium. 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:41:10 AM »
The information about the Milne ice shelf collapse was released today, and came from the ECCC Canadian Ice Service.

It is relevant to this melting season. 

If you want to start another thread about the historical properties of the ice shelf, that is good too! But, the current information should be left here as an important part of this melt season.

10
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:25:26 AM »
I stay away from the political threads. I’m posting once and never again. I’m not sure if this is the right thread to post on, but it seems to address the issue that I thought was important.

I live in Indiana in the Midwest US. For those who do not know, that is Mike Pence’s home state. 

I have two high school aged children and one middle school age child.

The interesting thing that I wanted to post is that every kid I know thinks the American flag is a racist symbol. 

The republicans are trying to “make America great again,” but they are making the youth hate America.

I don’t know what you guys will make of that, but in middle America which is a Trump stronghold the kids hate him and our country. 

EDIT: I should also add that none of the kids I know in our town will ever stand for the National Anthem. Again, I wonder what Trump and the GOP think they are accomplishing. The old people might like them, but they will be dead soon.  The youth hate them and they are turning the youth so far away from their message that none of their agenda stands a chance of lasting more than a small number of years.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:26:57 AM »
This seems important.

Maybe if we are lucky, Ossifrage will get some time to check in and let us know what he is seeing.

The ice north of Greenland and the CAA is really getting hammered this year. Historically, it was assumed that the ice north of Greenland and the CAA would be the last to go. This year, it looks possible there could be an ice free shipping route all the way from the Fram, north of Greenland and the CAA, into the Beaufort.

Does anyone have the CAB detaching from North America on their 2020 bingo card?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:19:01 AM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Weddell Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Weddell Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.
I thought the Weddell Sea to be in Antarctica. Is there one in the Arctic also?

Just let it go man, he is on a roll 🤫

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:45:49 AM »
Not surprisingly, Zack reported a record low extent for July.

I found the response to his tweet even more interesting.  I usually do not pay much attention to the grounded ice on the islands. Looks like July was a record melt month for most of that ice as well. 

The only places that were “ok” were Greenland and Iceland. Every place else showed either record, or above normal melting. That further demonstrates the remarkable amount of heat in the arctic last month.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:58:18 PM »
Below, is a visible satellite image from today for Northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean.

The source of the image is the Meteorological Service of Canada:

  https://weather.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html#hrpt

It provides a nice clear view of some of the rotten ice in the arctic, including the area north of Greenland discussed by uniquorn and friv, above. 

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:23:25 AM »
I'm really surprised at how long it can take for what appears as slush on worldview to melt out. For example this patch of "ice" in Hudson's Bay, which -- according to nullschool -- is in water well above -1.8C. Why wouldn't this go poof? Is it the lack of movement, which creates a cool pocket? Surely if there was wind this would disappear over the course of a day?

This is definitely not MYI - the Hudson melted out completely last year (if you want to verify this, look at EOSDIS Worldview starting c.a. 10th September last year. The following days have clear skies over different parts of the Hudson proper, no ice in sight.

ArcticMelt2 pointed out that these could be pressure ridges. I'd like to extend that to this being remnants of pressure ridges and stacks that have been pushing and piling up against the shore all winter. These thick chunks have now drifted away from the coast and are slowly but surely melting away.

But this shows how unduly optimistic/pessimistic (take your pick)  the "this ice looks like slush, should melt out in a couple of days" statements that one sees frequently in the forum are.

I’m sorry, but I followed this discussion back as far as I could and no one said anything about MYI. The people involved in this discussion raised reasonable questions, and had reasonable responses.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:16:39 AM »

In general though, the current weather outlook should favour the sea ice but whether it will or not this year remains to be seen.

You said the same thing last night, and I asked you about it and you did not respond.

I’m not trying to be rude. I just want to understand what you see that I am missing.

What is it in the current weather pattern that you think favors the sea ice?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 01:05:32 AM »


Yep your going mad...

As others say, now the storm is weakening and forecast to move near to Greenland, the weather in theory looks favourable for the ice but again with the way this year has gone then never rule anything out.

I am sorry Paul, but I have not seen a forecast that looks favorable for the ice in a very long time. The low is weakening and moving south, but that does not mean favorable conditions for the ice.

It has done whatever damage it was going to do. At a minimum, it pushed ice south into warm waters and reduced concentrations in the main pack. If it caused Eckman suction of warm deep waters that will be even more important.

We don’t know the outcome of the storm, or the reverse dipole that has flooded the CAB with heat from WAA. However, if you have a crystal ball that says the weather is now favorable for the ice please share that forecast with us.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 12:09:19 AM »
Whatever model you want to use to try to understand the heat currently blowing directly over the North Pole, don’t forget to look at the actual temperature data, and the current directions of the wind.

Svalbard has been on fire 🔥 and the reverse dipole is sucking all of that heat straight north over the CAB.

https://twitter.com/pat_wx/status/1288546764669280257?s=21


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 11:01:01 PM »
This was posted by MOSAIC today. Uniquorn has more information available on the MOSAIC thread and the buoy thread.

DMI uses a model that is heavily weighted towards the pole and tends to keep the temperature pegged close to 0C over the ice.  The heat flowing over the North Pole right now is incredible!

The weather forecasts are showing lots of WAA from areas that have seen record high temperatures, including Svalbard which is having a historic heat wave.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:18:27 PM »
You are correct.   I think Penguin accidentally linked to the wrong graph.

The 2020 is below.  I’m still pulling for the kids! Go Sanwa Elementary School!

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:14:25 PM »
Note that now the average forecast of ice in September is even more than in 2019. 4.35 vs 4.28

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

Sanwa Elementary School for the win!!! 

This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to predict the sea ice melting season. Those Elementary School kids are very likely to be closer to the final result than a lot of the “experts” when the final numbers are tallied.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 01:51:15 AM »
Very nice image Pagophilus! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:15:50 AM »

Plus moonsoon like torrental rainfall as it seams.


The rainfall is certainly very important! But, they never get monsoon like torrential rains in the arctic. When we start seeing that, it is time to kiss our asses goodby because the Hadley and Ferrell cells have fallen apart.

The latest forecast is a big one, but small by standards that we are familiar with in the mid and tropical latitudes.

http://www.simpleweatheralert.com/cgi-bin/weatherdetail.py?l=AK125F5929BBF0.SpecialWeatherStatement.125F5937C420AK.AFGSPSNSB.eb0e2cbf170fdb5e38888fa563399cdb&a=002&t=0

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:52:34 PM »
Big heatwave in Svalbard ... three out of the four warmest days ever recorded are the last three days!

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1287828295980113923?s=21

The reverse dipole is blowing all of that exceptionally warm air to the North Pole.

Even if we don’t set the record this year for extent, the central CAB is going to get hammered on volume.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:27 PM »
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Reversal of the Siberian Coastal Current
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:52:45 PM »
Added a few more buoys to the drift animation. Someone is collecting a large swath of data in the Beaufort/Chukchi

I’m cross posting this great animation from uniquorn (below) from the buoy thread. It certainly supports what the models are showing.

I also think this paper has some helpful information. It supports what FOOW said and provides a few more details. This is an interesting topic Freegrass. Thanks for bringing it up!

Quote

The distribution of water masses and their circulation on the western Chukchi Sea shelf are investigated using shipboard data from the 2009 Russian-American Long Term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) pro- gram. Eleven hydrographic/velocity transects were occupied during September of that year, including a number of sections in the vicinity of Wrangel Island and Herald canyon, an area with historically few measurements. We focus on four water masses: Alaskan coastal water (ACW), summer Bering Sea water (BSW), Siberian coastal water (SCW), and remnant Pacific winter water (RWW). In some respects the spatial distributions of these water masses were similar to the patterns found in the historical World Ocean Database, but there were significant differences. Most notably, the ACW and BSW were transposed in Bering Strait, and the ACW was diverted from its normal coastal pathway northwestward through Herald Canyon. It is argued that this was the result of atmospheric forcing. September 2009 was char- acterized by an abnormally deep Aleutian Low and the presence of the Siberian High, which is normally absent this time of year. This resulted in strong northerly winds during the month, and mooring data from the RUSALCA program reveal that the ACW and BSW were transposed in Bering Strait for a sig- nificant portion of the month. Using an idealized numerical model we show that the Ekman response to the wind can cause such a transposition, and that the consequences of this will persist on the shelf long after the winds subside. This can explain the anomalous presence of ACW in Herald Canyon during the RUSALCA survey.

Quote
There  are several ramifications of such a wind-driven trans- position of ACW and BSW. Much of the heat and freshwater transported into the Chukchi Sea, and ultimately fluxed into the interior basin, is carried by the Alaskan Coastal Current. The heat is capable of melting a significant amount of pack-ice, while the freshwater can contribute to the reservoir of freshwater within the Beaufort gyre. If ACW is diverted from its normal coastal route within the Alaskan Coastal Current it will (1) reside longer on the Chukchi shelf due to the longer and slower pathways on the central/western shelf, plus the fact that northerly winds retard the flow; and (2) exit the Chukchi shelf at a different lo- cation and possibly in a different manner. internal citations omitted
   

https://rpickart.whoi.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/53/2016/02/pisareva_etal_2015_dsr.pdf

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 06:16:04 AM »
It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

Can you post an updated thickness map? Or, where can I find it? Thanks a lot.

Below is the map from June. These maps are prepared by the University of Washington Polar Science Center.  The July map is not out yet. They do not produce daily maps. They produce monthly composites based on the PIOMAS results for each month.

There is also a PIOMAS thread in the ASIF that provides a lot of useful information.   

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 05:34:15 AM »
Based upon what is currently happening, I think it is interesting to look back at a map discussed earlier this year. 

It seems like ages ago that we were talking about the May PIOMAS thickness map.

As we talked about earlier this year, the predicted thickest ice was located in precarious positions. After two months of weather, it is as bad as we feared.

The anomalously thick ice that we had earlier this season along the Atlantic front has been destroyed.

The anomalously thick ice in the Beaufort and north of the CAA has not yet been destroyed. However, it was that thick ice that has helped the Beaufort so far this season. That ice has been slowly melting. It is doubtful it is very thick anymore. 

Now, it is going to get hammered by a low for a few days.  Much of it will melt out.

It is interesting to look back to our discussions from a couple of months ago, because it seems that the worst case scenarios we discussed are now coming true.

29
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 25, 2020, 03:56:46 AM »
[T]he ice age/reglaciation theory that you are presenting has been rejected here on the ASIF. It is not only wrong, but a derailment in every discussion where it pops up. As a moderator in the Cryo section I cannot allow it to be bandied about. IMHO it also muddies the waters with AGW, with no scientific justification, and thus may help deniers, which is why I oppose the concession of allowing it to be discussed in a dedicated thread. . . .

If you wish to be allowed a thread to discuss it, either convince Neven or a majority of the moderators, and I will have to comply. Otherwise, I hope you can get over its absence on the ASIF, and continue to contribute on other subjects.

I think this is very unfair.  As you and others have noted, bbr’s theory has never been popular on ASIF. But, as FOOW noted above, it is not bbr’s theory.

There is science supporting what he is saying.  It comes from a peer reviewed paper published by Dr. Hansen who is one of the most respected of all climate scientists.  A couple of years ago people were picking on bbr, and he shared that paper with us.  It was a long one, but I read the whole thing and there is some support for bbr’s interpretation of the science. 

That paper might be dated, but it has not been retracted.

As bbr mentioned above, when he had his own thread, he restricted his comments on his controversial theory to just that thread almost 100% of the time. 

I see no harm in letting him continue to have a thread on that subject. If people think it is wrong, they can ignore the thread. If people think newer studies contradict the findings from the original paper they can point that out in bbr’s thread, and he can do battle there.   

I have always liked bbr, and think he is a valuable member of this community. He has always been picked on because people don’t like his pet theory, but he always presents science and data to back up his arguments.

I am not saying I agree with his theory. I don’t. But, I also know I might be wrong so I don’t mind listening to what he has to say as long as he continues to back it up with science and data.

The theory he proposes is based upon his interpretation of a study by Dr. Hansen. I see no harm in giving  him his own thread to discuss that theory.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 07:17:47 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.
I don't think that's the only reason Friv. I think a slowdown of the gyre and thicker ice may have something to do with this as well. And then I saw the low sality...

But as you all know by now, I'm just a fat guy with a computer, so I'm gonna shut up now and leave it up to the specialists.  :-X

There is always a little bit of a chicken or the egg argument when taking about more ice and lower temperatures and less ice and higher temperatures (eg. has the extra ice caused the temps to be lower, or have lower temps caused the extra ice).

In any event, there is no doubt that thick ice from north of the CAA has been moving westward into the Beaufort this summer. I share the same concerns as many others that the extra extent in the Beaufort is about to take a nose dive.  If that happens, I completely agree with Friv that we will see a new record. 

However, it is still early and August can sometimes put the brakes on melting. 

I am anxious to see what happens. Most people would never understand our fascination with watching ice melt, but I have found this melt season to be very interesting to watch so far!

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 01:09:12 AM »


Are some on here questioning JAXA and NSIDC sea ice extent and area data?

I don’t think anyone is questioning the data.  It is the interpretation of the data that is in dispute.  That is common in all of science. My point with the PSA is that I don’t think everyone knows what the numbers actually mean. 

We are not living in a Star Wars world where we have perfect sea ice data. We are limited by the satellites we use. That does not mean that we don’t have very good data, but it is important to understand the data’s limitations.

I come from a back ground in bench science so this seems obvious to me. But, this seems to be a point of confusion and worth reemphasizing. 

Edit: I am also not sure if I agree with your compactness formula.  It is commonly used on these forums. I know Neven likes it, but I have doubts to its validity. However, that is not germane to the discussion at hand.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 12:50:21 AM »
Michael,
<snip>
 We can argue about how much surface melting has occurred this year vs. 2012 because of the compaction.......  <snip>

What compaction? I don't see any compaction to be worth mentioning. I am using a large screen high def laptop. I don't see it. Can those that keep bringing up compaction show some images or other proof? Please.

They don't see it, they simply assume that a long lasting high pressure system must have compacted (compressed) the ice or stacked it up to 10m hights, an opinion that i do not share.

CAB area is quite low not especially high as it would be in case the above mentioned assumptions were right.

There is absolutely no question that there has been compaction over the last several days due to the prolonged high pressure system. Anyone looking at the satellite images can see it.  It is basic physics and it is the reason why the extent numbers are currently so far below where they have ever been before on this date.

I don’t know where you got the idea that the ice has been stacked up to 10m heights. That seems very unlikely.  But, high pressure causes the winds to blow the ice north, and low pressure causes the winds to blow the ice south. Extent numbers are largely driven by the direction of the wind.

Personally, I have seen what looks to me like a hell of a lot of surface melting on the compacted ice. The extent drops will slow if we switch to a dominant low pressure system, that is basic physics. However, to my mind the ice looks like shit, and I think it will be hard for it not to set a record this year.

I’m out on a limb saying that, because we still have a long way to go until the minimum in September. Things could happen to preserve extent and area that have nothing to do with how much ice is actually there.

As a PSA, I think it would be helpful for people to visit the JAXA or NSIDC web pages and review how extent and area are measured. Volume is a completely different beast, and is even more complicated.

It seems to me that many of the disagreements on this forum stem from confusion about what the numbers mean, and how they are determined.

People like to crunch numbers and come up with their theories, I get that. But when you are looking at raw data from a system that is not well characterized, you need to remember the numbers don’t always mean what they say.

That is very much true for the numbers we use to measure the sea ice.  They are the best we have, but they are not perfect or absolute.


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 03:28:24 AM »
Seems like this might be important...

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:04:50 AM »
I think the discrepancy between extent and area is explained by two factors.

One is the melt pond drainage mentioned by Lodger and FOW above.

The other is lack of dispersal.

We are getting sooo sidetracked on a very basic issue.  The microwaves that are used to measure the ice are very good at distinguishing between solid ice and liquid water in the winter.

They are not very good in the summer when fog and wet clouds and wet ice and dry ice and melt ponds and ect ... are involved.

Area is not easy to interpret in the summer because of the effects on how the microwaves “see” wetness.  Because of that, we use extent for the official data.

That is not great either, because it could have a margin of error as much as 85% in each measured grid. If I remember correctly, NSIDC uses grids of 25km x 25km so that number could be quite significant.

But, we don’t need to get bogged down in the problems with the microwaves and how they measure if we keep an eye on the visible spectrum on worldview.

At the end of the day, this year might or might not break some records regarding extent, area, or PIOMAS volume.  But we can see how bad it is by using our own eyes and thinking about the two most important factors 1) albedo and 2) latent heat of fusion.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 05:03:48 AM »
Quote
Bbr, you have always been one of my favorite weather guys on this forum even though you are sometimes unpopular. But, you are way the fuck out on a limb on this one. You can not possibly believe that there is some “missing” data that changes what Berkeley Earth reported. That is nuts!

You can disagree with their data, but they are one of the top three weather reporting agencies in the world right now.

???? I literally do not know what you are talking about, I didn't say they were missing data, I said that taking a six month snapshot does not show you an accurate picture of what has been going on when certain regions that have shifted from record + to record or severely - may average out as normal when the sensible weather has been anything but.

It is the equivalent of saying "oh NYC had its record warmest year by a degree but we are not going to mention the fact that it happened because it was +15 in DJF and -10 in March and April and May because that is irrelevant" when such a discrepancy would literally result in winter occurring in March and April and May instead of December and January and February and would consequently be devastating to agriculture / normal life / etc. Glossing over what makes up "X anomaly" is literally ignoring the actual weather occurring on the ground and is not sound science.

Fair enough.  I don’t want to argue over this. Again, you are one of my favorite weather forecasters on ASIF. If I misinterpreted your comments, I am sorry! Have a great rest of the weekend!

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:00:39 AM »
They may cancel each other out, but the point is that it makes it hard to compare year to year values.

That is why extent is the value that is used for the official number.  NSIDC has a discussion on this on their web page. 

Again, area is important to look at, but you have to remember that a foggy day, or clouds with high moisture content, or any of a number of factors could trick the sensors and make comparison from one year to the next difficult.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 11:42:52 PM »
Area numbers are very difficult to interpret in the summer.  That is why the official numbers are always reported as extent. Extent is certainly not perfect, but at least it is consistent.

People on this forum are very good at interpreting area numbers in the summer. Probably as good as the sea ice scientists. But, it is still impossible to rely on them. Wet clouds, dense fog, wet ice, melt ponds, rain, fresh snow, overnight freeze,  etc ... all cause bumps in area data.

Area is helpful in the summer, but the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 11:03:53 PM »

Such an event would be ideal for resolving +OHC / accumulated insolation however it will come at the expense of a huge chunk of the CAB, and if this occurs it could also be severely disruptive to the halocline.


In my humble opinion, this is a huge point. Others up thread (down thread from bbr’s post) have expressed similar concern.

I have always worried most that the death to the ice will come from below, not above. The summer insulation period is very short.

However, if the anomalously large areas of open water suddenly get hit with strong winds and storms, it can cause the warm salty water from below to get mixed into the cold fresh water above and cause a lot of damage to the ice even when solar insulation is decreasing.

This is something to keep an eye on heading into late summer and fall.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:39:29 PM »
This map posted by Zack Labe today (on Twitter @ZLabe) showing the January to June 2020 temperature ranks is pretty incredible!

Notice there are no blue colors anywhere on the map. And, Siberia 🔥🔥🔥!

 

40
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 02:27:30 AM »
Would be nice if there was a simple term for us.

My inspiration is the Jews who fought back in the Warsaw Ghetto uprising rather than submit to the assembly line death march. They had no chance to get out alive, but they caused the bad guys to expend resources which made a difference to some anonymous people they would never know. The people on Flight 93 did something similar.


Can we not conflate you having a muddled viewpoint with people who fought and died in the holocaust or people who fought against a life or death hijacking situation. It really minimizes the struggles they went through when you use it as some sort of rallying crying for under-represented views on a forum tracking arctic sea ice.

But he is a war hero Viggy!

This has become embarrassing for the ASIFs.  Oren, I highly respect you, and I think you are doing a great job moderating, but this guy is making a fool of us. 

I know you think he is sincere, and you have spent a lot of time trying to reason with him.  That is his goal. Make you work more and laugh about it behind your back. This person is a troll. He is playing you right now. He did the exact same thing last year when his name was “Rich.” He did some damage and then Neven banned him. Now he is back.

This is a very common tactic. If there was any doubt in the beginning, it can’t be doubted now. He is a sophisticated troll that wants to seem reasonable and at the same time inflect nonsense arguments and try to disrupt the forums.

He was happy you moderated his posts because now he can say “Oren approved of that.” That was not his choice, but it gave him an opportunity to further manipulate you and the forums, and he happily capitalized on it.

There are lots of people who watch these forums to see what people like you and uniquorn and Friv  and others have to say.

You are a great person trying your best to make these forums fair. But, at some point you need to say enough is enough and stop an obvious troll from polluting the content.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 03:55:49 AM »
Expanding on my earlier comment about this being a very bad year already for Arctic sea ice, much ado is made every year about the minimum every year as we draw ever nearer to a BOE.  However, we are arguably actually in the time of year ( if a little past the peak ) now when low sea ice does the most damage and contributes most to global warming.  And we are record low and not by a small margin, definitely a BAD year!

I agree be cause! There are a lot of very good posts that get skipped over when things are happening so fast! I think this one from ArcTickTock was another important one. This reminds me of A-Team when he tried to explain the difference between a damaged air conditioner and a broken one.


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 01:35:00 AM »
Thinking about what might happen next ...

Many of the great weather forecasters here on ASIF have already mentioned this, but a head Met at an agency in the UK seems to agree.

James Peacock is a great meteorologist who follows sea ice closely. He watches the ASIF, and might even have an account here.

Today he posted what might be some scary news for the ice if it comes true. His model runs support what others have said that we might see a strong low over the Beaufort in about a week. Since the Beaufort is the last remaining hold out for the ice, that will be bad if it happens. It will churn up warm water and cause mechanical breakup of existing floes.

Ossifrage in post 3036 provides additional evidence as to why this might be really bad if it happens this year.

The forecast is still a week out, and could change. But, for what it is worth, here it is:

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 06:04:00 AM »
Thank you Oren. I started some of this shit tonight because of someone that I firmly believe is trying to ruin these forums.

I know you and the other mods have a very hard job and you are doing your best to be fair and keep these forums great. But, I have been on the Internet since the very beginning, and I know a troll when I see one.

If you want to give him a voice, I understand.  But that might mean you lose people like me who don’t want to constantly fight climate deniers in disguise.

Anyway, thank you again for your hard work! And, thank you to the other mods too!

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 04:07:34 AM »
It can not be argued that we have (not) seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days.

I added the word "not" that I think you meant to put in there.

I don't think it's very scientific to try and draw boundaries around what can and can not be argued. Clearly there is visible and undeniable evidence supporting the massive extent declines being reported by JAXA. The 2D shrinkage is undeniable.

But there is room for reasonable people to question how much of that shrinkage is due to melting and how much is due to relocation.

There is a lot of evidence which will be forthcoming in the next two months which will shed more light on what has transpired during the GAAC. There isn't any reason to label less common perspectives such as those implied by Nico Sun (and his depiction of a negative current melting energy anomaly) as being invalid at this moment. The likelihood of proof is just around the corner.

I certainly think its fair to criticize and dissect the logic of unpopular arguments, but we should not make declarations that characterize arguments which have yet to be made before the proof. At this point, I don't see proof which enables us to reasonably quantify how much of the extent reduction is due to ice relocation.

Phoenix, please do not engage with me anymore.

Don’t tell me what I meant to say!

The mods let you stay and I won’t question their judgement. But don’t engage with me.  I feel like Shared Humanity right now and maybe I will just delete my account because these forums are too frustrating to participate in anymore.

<Softened the tone. And Please don't leave. O>

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 03:12:28 AM »
The exceptionally strong high pressure system will end within a few days. Weather models vary on when exactly that will happen.

The next thing to watch, as others have said, is will we see a strong low pressure system replace it.

When the low takes over, extent losses will slow down because of dispersion. However, at that point mechanical breakup and upwelling warm salty water has the potential to decimate the remaining ice.

It can not be argued that we have seen some extreme surface melting over the last few days. The ice is basically a lot of melty slush right now. A close look at worldview shows that even at the North Pole the ice is full of melt ponds and holes.

If the transition to low pressure is strong, like some predict, the ice is going to get destroyed! But, even if we have a transition to a weak low and favorable conditions for ice retention, the damage has been done.

Each year the ice gets thinner and thinner.  One good year like last winter can only thicken the ice a small amount. Thermodynamics controls that. I don’t know what will happen in the next few weeks, but I’m anxiously awaiting the results!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 06:10:50 AM »
I refrained from commenting on Juan’s post on the data thread, because that thread is for the data.

But, Damn! The ice is taking a beating right now!!! Thank you Juan for keeping us informed!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:00:21 AM »
WOW!!! The last few weeks have been incredible. I don’t have the way with words that Friv has, but this has been fun to watch!

Below is a map posted today on Twitter by Rick Thoman that I think will be very important to watch as we go forward and think about a possible record.  It shows the sea ice rankings for this day in each of the Arctic seas.

I am also posting screenshots of twitter posts by Judah Cohen and Zack Labe that agree with Friv and others that this high is going to persist for a while longer.

The interesting thing right now is trying to figure out if dispersion of the ice is worse than compaction this time of year.  Michael Hauber in post 2674 made a very important observation. The surface melting we are currently seeing even with this compaction is eating a lot of holes in the ice in very far north latitudes.

Paul is a very smart guy, and he has mentioned that the compaction might help the ice in the long term. I understand and agree with his position depending on what happens with the weather.

However, my humble opinion based on what we are currently seeing is that the surface melting eating those holes in the ice is very important , and if we later get a strong low In August that blows this ice apart and causes lots of side and bottom melting, we are very much in a position to beat 2012 even without a GAC.

That is probably a no brainer at this point, but what the hell, I want to add my 2 cents to the discussion 👍🏻

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 04:33:46 AM »
I just want everyone to know what a bad ass FOW is. He was fighting for you before many of you were born! Most people on this forum are old guys, but some are not. Never forget the old guys who fight for you. (I say this because I’m am one of them 😂)

I cross post this from another thread because I think it is important.

I, too, am frustrated, Rod with the level of communication of climate science research to the public. My research career cannot be described as brilliant but I learned a lot about the politics of science. I developed nuclear waste safety research programs and managed them with national labs and universities. I approved and oversaw research grants with universities. When Newt Gingrich & the GOP took over congress in 1994 all of our nuclear waste safety research was closed down.

Perhaps EU scientists don't have to deal with such crazy political wind shifts as U.S. scientists, but there are systemic reasons why scientists are not engaging very well with the public.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: July 13, 2020, 03:41:13 AM »
We thank you for what you have done to make this world a better place  FOW!

I have great respect for you! I fight polluters every day and it pisses me off!

I have three kids and I worry about their future because of AGW. I guess we all have our weak spots, mine is my children. Sorry if I get overly emotional sometimes.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: July 13, 2020, 12:56:54 AM »
It has been so frustrating that the scientists on board MOSAIC have not done a better job of showing us what they are seeing!

I like all of the scientists that participated. I understand they want some time to publish their findings and they are entitled to that.

But, the BS pics of people in the pool or the lunch room, instead of showing the ice has really ticked me off! They could have been providing us with pictures and temperatures and ice thickness measurements this whole time, and it would not have impacted their ability to be first to publish.

i have lost a lot of respect for some of the scientists on this mission because of the way they refused to provide basic data that would not have in anyway impacted their ability to be first to publish.




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