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Messages - Neven

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 10, 2019, 10:58:41 PM »
PIOMAS February 2019 is up on the ASIB.

The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: February 10, 2019, 07:27:23 PM »
American hero:

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: February 10, 2019, 07:17:02 PM »
Maybe something interesting is going on again on this front. CryoSat-2 has ice thicker than 2011-2018 baseline north of Greenland and CAA, PIOMAS has it thinner.

I'll write about this in the next ASIB PIOMAS update. Anyone have any ideas what could be causing this? Another snow issue?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 07, 2019, 02:41:34 PM »
The reality, just like Lurk is saying, is that all these cuts are made to benefit concentrated wealth, under the guise of climate accords or whatever. A carbon tax would work perfectly well, if you would transparently distribute all of the tax revenues to the population on a per capita basis.

If you use that tax money to either benefit concentrated wealth or bureaucracy, yes, people will get mad. And rightly so. But the system demands it. If you don't (want to) change the system, don't expect AGW to be solved any time soon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 01:13:57 PM »
I've taken the liberty of uploading it to YouTube (let me know if that's not okay with you, Wip):

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: February 03, 2019, 02:21:59 PM »
More data, SAT for January. Second lowest Arctic-wide for the last 15 years, all sectors down compared to last three years:

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: February 01, 2019, 09:53:31 PM »
This is much better than the average Russiagate-New-Cold-War-McCarthyite hysteria.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 28, 2019, 10:14:52 AM »
What a waste of resources, but I guess this is what makes us human.  :)

Consequences / Re: Ocean Temps
« on: January 23, 2019, 10:11:19 AM »
Zeke Hausfather on his paper showing that oceans are warming faster that thought:

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 17, 2019, 11:54:05 AM »
Kaszeta needs to make clear that he gets paid for that kind of stuff by covert organisations that get paid millions to fuel conflicts with Russia. If he doesn't, it's BAD journalism.

The forum / Re: Congrats to Zach Labe on his presentation award
« on: January 15, 2019, 07:42:13 AM »
Keep up the good work, Zack!

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 12, 2019, 07:58:08 PM »
<snip, I've decided not to go through the same motions>

Martin, maybe you haven't noticed, but ever since I've taken some measures to limit the amount of space mainstream conditioned thinking gets to take up on this forum, the belligerent bitching has been reduced by 90%. I really like it that way, much more quiet and interesting. Things have improved massively.

This place can do without missionaries who impose their worn-out, 20th century narratives that come straight out of the divide-and-conquer strategies pushed by concentrated wealth (irrespective of nationality) to keep the wars and AGW going strong, because this Forum is about Arctic sea ice loss, not about politics.

So, I would kindly ask you to go find some other place to do your thing. I think it would be better for you, and it would definitely be a lot better for me, because it's wearing me out and I don't want to quit this project just yet.

Facebook, Google, YouTube, Twitter, the mainstream media, Corporate Leftists around the world, and even rehabilitated neocons, they're all with you to make things reality.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 11, 2019, 03:02:44 PM »
Pretty sure that's not ice round Jan Mayen. Dense cloud perhaps. Some goodbye waves visible to the far left of the polarview image.

Or is it the Odden Ice Tongue? That would be pretty amazing. A blast from the past.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: January 01, 2019, 11:37:36 PM »
I really expected it would end 4th, but 3-5 seems to have done the trick.  :)

Consequences / Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« on: December 26, 2018, 01:26:46 PM »
HHI, I'm not interested in virus/vaccination-discussions here. So, either refrain or go elsewhere.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2018, 07:51:32 AM »
Happy holiday JCG, and thanks again for you daily posts.

+1  :)

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: December 21, 2018, 11:27:40 PM »
This stuff gets more crazy by the day...  ???

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 20, 2018, 09:38:11 AM »
I thought that 257K increase was a lot of fun!

Policy and solutions / Re: How many people can fit in a space dinghy?
« on: December 19, 2018, 09:47:44 PM »
How about changing the title of this thread, and then explain in what way this is a policy and/or solution?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2018, 10:33:36 AM »
False color from December 15 and 17 - just from eyeballing I would have guessed a small drop.

I did the same for JAXA in the area and extent thread:

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 17, 2018, 09:32:08 PM »
But every time the rich theoretically have a choice but the choice is almost never to use their wealth for the good of men (m/f).

Absolutely, and that's because concentrated wealth (which owns them, not the other way around) poisons their minds, and more.

Which is why, of all the people in the world, the rich need to be saved most. I know it's counterintuitive, but we need to save the rich.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 16, 2018, 07:08:20 PM »
The rich aren't the problem, their wealth is the problem. Capitalism is simply the most efficient way for concentrated wealth to grow itself. It uses its owners to grow itself.

What needs to be done first, is putting a cap on how much an individual can own. The system then has the chance to change accordingly.

A guillotine will get you nowhere, only back to square one of the vicious cycle (concentrated wealth doesn't care, rich people can be replaced). But I understand the sentiment.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 14, 2018, 09:59:05 PM »
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 14, 2018, 02:49:37 PM »
Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.

And I only saw the intro on my second visit! Sorry, all cleared up now.  :)

Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.

Anything is possible, but I'm willing to bet my house/farm that this isn't Francis' goal.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 12, 2018, 11:29:11 PM »
It does look kind of cheesy, doesn't it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 07, 2018, 12:07:49 AM »
I've just posted PIOMAS December 2018 on the ASIB.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 06, 2018, 09:24:16 PM »

I'm not really complaining, FWIW. I'm only here to glean the most accurate information possible regarding the cryosphere; I couldn't care less about the political "discussions". Good job on keeping the sub-sections sequestered, as it helps in that regard.

Thanks, you clearly understand how forums work.

Honestly, my only quibble is that the ignore feature doesn't block quotes. I'm just going to tweak my old user/browser-side blocking script for this site, I guess.

I'll see if I can do anything about that, but my gut says it may be complicated.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 06, 2018, 12:11:01 AM »
What is the function of this 'working group, community, or team' that needs to be fulfilled in a productive way? If it is 'solving AGW', then I can only say that "Team MSNBC" isn't serious about it. And that's something that needs to be addressed and clarified, just like climate risk denial needs to be addressed and clarified. Because how does collective consciousness progress if discussion is suppressed in the name of etiquette or politeness? How do you solve a problem if you're only allowed to talk about symptoms and not root causes? How do you tackle systemic problems if the system must remain invisible, because people's feelings may get hurt?

The reason why people aren't serious about AGW, even if they don't dispute the numbers, is because deep inside they want to protect what's theirs. The boat mustn't be rocked too hard, because they're actually quite comfortable in that boat. I guess that's a very reasonable reaction to have. But you can have all the reasonableness, politeness, moderation, etiquette and bon ton in the world, and in the end, it will amount to no more than a bunch of violinists on the Titanic.

I've used this quote several times before, but I'll do it again:

I'm in favor of closing the politics section.

Nobody is forcing you to walk through that door. I've even removed all traces of politics on the front page. If you just ignore this part of the forum, all of the other stuff is still there.

I'd just moderate each sub-forum section differently, like I personally used to elsewhere. (private website I administrated for 7 years, which at the time I stepped down had just over 150,000 users) Cryosphere = strict, AGW in general = medium, The Rest = lenient.

I believe that I have moderated more or less in this manner. In fact, The Rest used to be a lot more lenient. How did you moderate in boards/threads that you were passionate about?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: December 01, 2018, 05:00:12 PM »
Added, thanks.

The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: November 30, 2018, 03:33:18 PM »
Enough is enough. It's time the US starts bombing the hell out of Russia (and Iran and China while you're at it, drop them freedom bombs). Everyone agrees. Mattis, Pompeo, Bolton, the Atlantic Council, Lockheed, Clinton, Raytheon, Kristol, Boeing, Browder, Northtrop Gumman, Gisser, Dekker.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 29, 2018, 10:24:21 PM »

From the Guardian article:

A separate internal document written by Ecuador’s Senain intelligence agency and seen by the Guardian lists “Paul Manaford [sic]” as one of several well-known guests. It also mentions “Russians”.

Okay, that's enough, Rob Dekker and Martin Gisser are on board. Anybody denying the veracity, nay truth, of this article, is a paid Russian troll. Show the evidence that proves the opposite (No, that doesn't count. That doesn't count either. Neither does that. See, you have no proof. Putin loses).


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 28, 2018, 11:08:35 PM »
The level of delusion on this forum is insane. I am taking a break from this thread because answering these stupid replies is itself stupid. Enjoy wallowing in whatever it is you are wallowing in.

Good idea! Things are accumulating... 

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 23, 2018, 11:37:15 PM »

One cannot address someone as "you little slime-ball" etc, etc, without expecting some comeback.
I reckon you need to calm down or take your ranting somewhere else

Same here. If lashing out like that only brought relief. That would at least make it useful. But I don't think it makes you feel better. Only stepping away from that stupid PC does (I know, I still can't do it either).

Archimid, you can lash back if you want.  ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 22, 2018, 12:59:14 PM »
Probably it will seem stupid, but does anyone admit simply cooler than in the last 10 years air and water conditions in the Arctic this November? Could it be the main precondition of the rapid refreeze?

The month isn't over yet. We first have to see NCEP Reanalysis data.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 18, 2018, 12:58:32 PM »
I've said a couple of weeks ago that I would give my opinion on Bellingcat one last time, after watching a recent documentary a couple of times for work. Might as well do it here.

What I came away with, is that it's a tragic story. Mind you, it wasn't presented as such. It was a documentary that promoted the hero story, of ordinary people just like you and me, who do the things the media or the police should be doing, but don't. It fits in well with that sentiment in consumer culture that anybody can become a hero or a celebrity, like we see exemplified in the immensely popular talent shows on TV.

Bellingcat is simply a pawn in a geopolicital game that is all about money, corporate access, weapons sales and so on. I've seen enough of Eliot Higgins now (but I had already strong suspicions after reading through his Twitter feed), to know that he has a huge ego and narcissistic tendencies. The way he licks his lips, the way his eyes twinkle, when talking about all the media attention he receives, or how intelligence agencies and governments are interested in his work. He is simply in it for the fame, and perhaps the money as well. The same, to a lesser extent, goes for Christiaan Triebert. They're running with this for all they're worth, there's not much ideology or idealism involved.

The others on the team that are presented in the documentary, are mostly nerds (Aric Toler is a perfect example), who get a kick out of doing the geolocation stuff. And rightly so, it's pretty cool what they're doing. But it's very one-sided, and they all have clear biases. One Syrian guy is obviously anti-Assad, and so is mostly interested in collecting and archiving evidence of war crimes perpetrated by the government. That's fine, but it shouldn't be presented as some objective, neutral endeavour, because it isn't. The other two (older) guys have a clear anti-Russia bias, one being ex-Finnish military, the other a German who used to work for the Stasi.

All of this is fine. The problem I have with it, is the implication that what they do, is objective, neutral, evidence-based, transparent, and so on. Some if it is, some of it isn't. Normally, this wouldn't get much attention, like most of what most bloggers do. The reason it does get attention, is because Bellingcat serves the purpose of promoting narratives that people will no longer accept from mainstream media. And the driving force behind Bellingcat, Eliot Higgins, is very eager to fill this niche, in exchange for fame (and probably money). His early embrace with the Atlantic Council and his bragging that a weapons manufacturer was interested in hiring him, attest to this fact. It's a small, but powerful movement that has a hand in a lot of the stories that promote neocon warmongering. From FusionGPS to Propornot, from CrowdStrike to the Magnitsky Prize, it would be quite easy to draw up an organigram, where Bellingcat also plays its role. 

Now, why is this a tragic story? It has all the hallmarks of a tragedy. There's the tragic anti-hero Higgins, who is presented as a hero thanks to his connections, rather than his work (which also relies heavily on connections he wouldn't normally have). And the thing with tragic characters is that it usually doesn't end well for them. In the best case, Higgins gets exposed for what he is. In the worst case, something bad happens to him that serves the propaganda purposes of one of many players in the story, be it the GRU or the NSA or MI6, or whatever.

In a TED talk, I saw Higgins talking about how open-source investigations can be used to 'influence the powerful, challenge the powerful, and hold the powerful to account'. Bellingcat is not doing that. The most powerful organisation in the world is the US Pentagon. If Bellingcat really was about speaking truth to power, 90% of what they'd be doing, would be focused on American empire. It's not. If it would be, if these guys would be real heroes, they'd be withering away like Assange, in some cell or embassy. The fact that they aren't, the fact that they aren't smeared by mainstream media, means they are doing things that the powers that be approve of, things that further the goals of powerful interests.

It's not going to do much good over-all, and it's not going to end well. I feel sorry for everyone involved with Bellingcat, especially for those who are unselfish and mean well. It's a tragic story.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 17, 2018, 11:56:51 AM »
As long as bbr2314 doesn't try to spread his pet theory into too many threads, I think there's room for him here, so don't dump on him too much. But by all means, point out where he is wrong or the forecasts he posts, don't pan out. How will we get through winter without a bit of heated disagreement?  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2018, 02:45:57 PM »
I removed the link. My blood is boiling.  ;)

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 16, 2018, 12:02:22 PM »
Everybody in Washington likes the Saudis (and Israelis) because of the b/trillions of dollars they pay for US bombs and rockets.

This is what needs to be focussed on, because it's not just about fighting Trump, but about changing the system at the same time:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 15, 2018, 09:13:13 PM »
It's revealing that mostly_lurking used disingenuous graphics from WhatUpWithThat to support his global warming denial.
<snip, I believe you, no need to link to that s**thole; N>

Watts, (and apparently mostly_lurking) deliberately misrepresented data from the US National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and ignored the database warning:

Oh, really? I wasn't aware of that. If mostly-lurking does it again, he's out of here. If you can't find graphs or arguments from reputable sources, and only from a source like WUWT, there's a 99.9% chance it's BS. Don't link to that stuff here, ever.

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: November 15, 2018, 10:32:44 AM »
Neven, I don't like the way you and me talk to each other. It's not nice and not helpful.

I would like to change the style in which we interact.

The reason I think why we get under each others skin sometimes is that we hold a different world view.

I see that you look at reality from the top down, similar to Noam Chomsky. Given a certain world order, you can understand the lower level reality.

I use more of a bottom-up approach, similar to the Bellingcat method. Given verifiable evidence of certain events, you can understand the upper level level reality.

Both views have their strengths and their own weaknesses, but neither is uniquely right or wrong.

What I would like to see is that we can both learn something from each other's world view, rather than clash in the middle and point out mistakes in the others point of view.
I have certainly been guilty of that in the past and I want to change that.

So, I will now vow to respect your worldview and not hold any value judgements against you or your opinions.

Instead, I will be respectful even though we may completely disagree, and hope to have a more constructive discussion where we both can learn something.

And hope you will treat me the same in return.

Rob, I want this too. I've always highly, highly valued your contributions on the scientific stuff.

There are simply groups within each society who want war (either cold or hot, or proxy) to further their interests, and they try to get the masses involved, because you can't have a war without the masses. And so, it's really important to not align with the group in your particular country, in order to attack the other country, because then you only force the masses in that country to align with 'their' group. And then things can quickly get out of hand, making it impossible to solve anything else (like AGW).

I'm not apologizing for Putin or any other autocrat. I just don't want to see the propaganda efforts of the American military-industrial complex and mainstream media ratingsbait get repeated over here. Only one thing is important and that's increasing diplomacy and cooperation (Trump, that idiot, said one thing right: both countries have made mistakes), so that the insane armaments race can be stopped and the focus can go on mitigating AGW (Russia needs a lot of help there, because their economy is so dependent on fossil fuels).

The rest is a distraction.

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: November 14, 2018, 10:59:20 PM »
I've already learned Rob's mistakes when experiencing the wars in Croatia and Bosnia up close (luckily not first-hand). Or actually a decade after that, after much reading (Hesse, Huxley, Tolstoy, etc), when things fell into place.

As for censorship, etc, I've always said that I'm the Tony Montana of this forum. If I don't do it the way I believe is best, there's no point in doing it. 'The rest' category and the threads in it aren't the core of this Forum. The core of this forum is the 'Cryosphere' board, and the core of that core is Arctic sea ice. Hence the name of the Forum.

There are millions of political forums out there. If people want to spread clickbait or impose their conventional thinking or call for wars, they can do it there.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: November 14, 2018, 06:59:53 PM »
If you don’t mind, I would like to set up a thread that deals with “the impeachment process”.

The Political theatre/wrestling thread can be used for that. I'd rather see Trump deposed at the ballot box, based on substance (ie policy and a vision for where Americans want to go), than on legal technicalities. I don't believe Russiagate can even accomplish the second, although the rampant corruption could, albeit with a massive effort. But there will be a price for that, because it strengthens Trump's fake argument that he is not part of the establishment, and that the elites wants him out because he is draining the swamp. This argument will be strengthened even further if all the other Washington corruption (also on the Dem side) doesn't get addressed. And then the US is set up for something much worse than Trump.

Now, if and when there is something substantial on the impeachment front, instead of the ratingsbait we've been subjected to for two years now, I may change my mind on whether a special thread is warranted, or whether it fits anywhere else than in the Political theatre/wrestling thread. But for now, that's the place.

The rest / Re: Political theatre, good for ratings, otherwise useless
« on: November 13, 2018, 12:29:26 PM »
"Both the science and the political environment that we find ourselves in are important but I fear we're losing the sense of purpose that made this Forum different.

It had become a respected, widely read and effective consolidator of the observations of its members that has on occasion contributed significantly to the advancement of mainstream science.

Let's not lose that invaluable asset in pursuit of another online bully pulpit for individual political views."

Silkman, I'm sorry if I disappoint you, but a) I'm only human and given I run this forum practically pro bono, I have to do it my way, b) I've always made clear I'm an activist, and the ASIB, ASIG and ASIF are a result of this activism, c) no one is forcing you to pay attention to the threads in 'The rest', which is only 1 of 13 categories, d) the ASIF isn't static, it's a dynamic 'story' with a bell curve.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:52:11 PM »
MSNBC just ran a harrowing interview with a fire survivor, and then discussed the insane Trump tweet about the fires. Pretty powerful. Alas they don't have it on their Youtube channel yet.

Great, thanks for mentioning.

This is the kind of stuff that brings Trump down, not the Russiagate wrestling event.
Did Katrina (New Orleans) hurt GW Bush or raise AGW awareness? Nope.

It definitely hurt Bush, I believe (see Wikipedia).

If it is done with the same fervour the MSM invests in Russiagate, this kind of stuff can really hurt Trump. I'm sure of it. And there are other social issues that hurt Trump a lot more than the stuff that drives ratings. The thing is, these things also hurt the system and raise awareness, which is not what corporate media is about.

PS I've seen some videos today, and they're as horrible as any I've seen before. Wildfires are the worst.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 12, 2018, 04:53:26 PM »
No. I don´t agree at all.

I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?

My point is that if instead of hanging this around Trump's neck, people prefer the political wrestling, the Kabuki theatre of Mueller, Whitaker and Jim Acosta and whatever the daily media-ratings-propaganda crap is that is copypasted onto this forum every day, then obviously things still aren't deemed bad enough. And thus need to get worse.

I wish it weren't so, but if there's one thing I've learned from running this forum for five years, it's that even people who accept the science of AGW, aren't really serious about AGW or its causes.

But forget the wildfires. Does Mueller finally have Roger Stone by the balls? Has Jim Acosta been declared holy by the Pope yet? And where are the tax returns? Look! There! Russia!

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 10, 2018, 01:09:15 PM »
Quote from Lurk:-
If a few have to die, to sacrifice themselves for the greater long term good of Billions and the planet herself, so be it. I'm not going to cry over it.

That comment could have come from just about any tin-pot dictator.

But many people think like this all the time, some consciously even. That's okay as long as nobody says it outright? I'll concede that the form of Lurk's content isn't pleasant, but there's nothing wrong with the content per se. And if he would express himself thusly at every turn, I would berate him at some point. But I can get let this one go, and get the gist of it, and so should others.

And it's very nice to feel for others outside of our monkeysphere, but oftentimes we feel that way because we think we ought to.

I also want people to act and demand the system is changed radically before the real catastrophes start to hit, and I will do everything I can to make it so, but I can't control a climate that's out of control, so if catastrophes happen and they wake people up faster, so be it.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 10, 2018, 10:18:24 AM »
Feeling depressed, lonely, disconnected? A new study from the University of Pennsylvania suggests prolonged exposure to social media might be the cause – which for some will come as little surprise, even though it seems to be the exact opposite of what social networks are supposed to do.

People keep telling me that this forum is social media too, so maybe that's why I often feel that way?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November)
« on: November 08, 2018, 07:16:12 PM »
Latest update on the ASIB: PIOMAS November 2018

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 08, 2018, 09:27:09 AM »
bbr2314, when you post forecast maps, please indicate how many days out it is. For most people it isn't clear and they may think it's going to happen in the next few days, whereas with you it's mostly D8-10. Thanks.

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