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Messages - sidd

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Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 16, 2019, 09:30:22 PM »
Peakers, storage and batteries: duration matters

"I can beat a gas peaker anywhere in the country today with a solar-plus-storage power plant,"

" Hohenstein advocated a "duration portfolio" approach that uses energy storage to shave peak load. "

"When solar penetration is lower than about 11%, the potential of four-hour storage is lower than it would be with zero solar deployment because solar penetration of 11% or less flattens the load curve. Above 11% penetration, however, NREL found that solar power creates a "peakier" load curve that increases the potential of four-hour storage."

"the cost of energy storage is highly dependent on the number of hours of duration needed."


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:35:01 AM »
On another thread Neven stated:

"I would kindly ask you to go find some other place to do your thing. I think it would be better for you, and it would definitely be a lot better for me, because it's wearing me out and I don't want to quit this project just yet.

Facebook, Google, YouTube, Twitter, the mainstream media, Corporate Leftists around the world, and even rehabilitated neocons, they're all with you to make things reality."

Whereupon some pearl clutching ensued, I gather, tho i missed most of it being sheltered by killfile.

Please guys and gals and those of other genders:

This is Neven's house. He has stated repeatedly that evidence based argument on the science threads are open to all, and he has acted in accordance. He has also repeatedly stated that he will moderate social/political threads, and he has done so. Apparently that annoys some who imagine this forum is their pulpit.

It is not. Start you own blog if you wanna post without moderation. Or find a forum on goofacetwit more to your taste. Stop bitching at Neven.

That's like going into a party and repeatedly pissing on the carpet after your host has asked you multiple times to quit, and then screaming at him for not letting you continue.


Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 01:57:04 AM »
Re: Batteries may eventually prove to be a part of the solution, but at the moment they drain ~20% of what electricity is fed through them.

diesel engine on tractors, on a good day will give you about a third of the energy in the tank at the axle. Not counting pumping, refining,generation,retail chain loss. Call the last about 15%, so you are getting

.33*.85*.15 = .28 efficiency

This turns out to be roughly the same as inefficient coal plant + T&D + battery loss

Battery will give you close to 80% cycle loss. Lets say your electric come from coal. Modern coal plant (the ones remaining precariously in business) work at 45-60% to make electric. T&D electric losses are 5-7%. Electric motors in this HP range (50-100 HP) have minimum NEMA design 95% efficient

worst case

.45*.93*.8*.95 = 0.32 efficiency

But with one difference. You didnt burn that tank of oil. Instead you burnt an equivalent amount of coal at a centralized location.

1) So if that coal plant were 60% efficient or natgas+wind+solar it would reduce the fossil carbon load of every operational tractor feeding off it.

2) Whereas, to reduce fossil load of every diesel tractor in the land, i will have to reduce petrodiesel burn with carbon neutral fuel.

I have done the latter so far. But as electric transport penetration increases i can see the former will give me bigger bang for my buck. The advantage is that i can replace one centralized coal plant with a natgas+wind+solar and make all the tractors (and the electric cars and every appliance on the local grid) cleaner.

Coal plants are goin cheap, they have transmission already. Natgas pipes comin thru in this Trump new world, i see the crews every time i am on the road. I know farmers owning ridgelines throughout northern appalachia and allegheny. And farmers, some Amish, putting in their own solar already. Might be time soon.


Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 01:22:28 AM »
Re: excess cider

make booze. that's what johnny appleseed was all about. all the orchards he planted were unfit for anything except booze.


Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 05, 2019, 11:36:47 PM »
I got some solutions:

a)eat less meat. For every gram of meat you don't eat you get a multiplier of ten in grains grow. So, eat 5 fewer grams meat, grow 50 grams less grain. And burn less fossil. What's not to like ?

b) Get rid of ethanol and fresh soy to biofuel conversion. That saves you a buncha farmland. Right now a third of all corn in the USA and a third of all fresh soy oil does into biofuel. This is a completely mad thing to do EROEI is around 1, and costs in degradation of land is huge.



Shean et al., on PIG basal melt: Joughin and Dutrieux among the authors

"Mean 2008–2015 basal melt rates for the full PIG ice shelf were ~82–93 Gt/yr. Local basal melt rates were ~200–250 m/yr near the grounding line, ~10–30 m/yr over the outer main shelf, and ~0–10 m/yr over the North and South shelves, with notable exception of ~50–100 m/yr near the grounding line of a fast-flowing tributary on the South shelf."

Nice pics, i attach two. Scale on the right  is rate of surface height decrease for the first and bed depth on the second.  That huge hole behind the grounding line (white) says that doom is nigh.
open access, read all about it:

Then we have the glaciers next door: Pope,Smith,Kohler aint doin so good either. Sutterly et al. on those, PIG, and Crosson, Dotson ice shelves, open access:

And Getz goin fast: Rippin sounding alarm

" ... the vast majority of the ice shelf (where data is available) is undergoing basal thinning at a mean rate of nearly 13m/a, which is several times greater than recent modelling estimates ... t these measurements represent changes that are significantly greater than modelling outputs, it is also clear that we still do not fully understand how ice shelves respond to warming ocean waters."

open access:


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: January 03, 2019, 08:18:38 AM »
Hard rain falling on Greenland:

"Both winter and summer events are associated with a south-southeasterly wind over the central and western parts of the ice sheet ... the southerly component of the winds is enhanced by a large-scale high pressure anomaly southeast of Greenland and a low pressure anomaly to the southwest  ... the southerly winds not only carry heat, but also moisture over the ice sheet, ... "

" ... that in both seasons, approximately half of the rain and melt associated with melt events runs off and the other half refreezes ..."

[Each gram of rain refreezing delivers 80 calories of heat to the ice sheet.]

"In winter, the rainfall also significantly increased ... "

"the observed increases in the occurrence and areal extent of the initiated melting have led to a more frequent replacement of snow by rain and a northward and upslope shift of the boundary between rain/melting and snowfall, thus changing the balance between Greenland’s mass gain and mass loss within a single weather event."

Read all about it. Open access:


Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: December 21, 2018, 07:47:58 PM »
Amtrak treading water:

" Parts of Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor route, which carries 12 million people each year between Boston and Washington, face “continual inundation.”  "

"Amtrak has since de-emphasized the threat of climate change in its public documents, even scrubbing the phrase entirely from its most recent five-year strategic plan."

"One of the redacted portions of the report is an analysis of the full costs and benefits of protecting the corridor against climate change, making it impossible to know if the company has determined it would save more money by keeping the corridor open than it would have to spend to save it. The disclosure of that information “could possibly cause public confusion,” ... "

They be screwed.


Science / Re: Fall AGU 2018
« on: December 13, 2018, 08:06:07 AM »
meeting began the 10th, sorry for that misinfo earlier.

Caldeira in the Sagan lecture is ambivalent but slightly optimistic,  sees threats other than climate change, asks if wildly successful species create the conditions for their own destruction, refers to Great Oxygenation Event. He is rather scattered.

The 50 years of ocean drilling thing ends with Maureen Raymo pointing out that we dont really have a good understanding carbon cycle over megayear timescales.

videos online, chekitout in the "on demand" thingie.


Science / Fall AGU 2018
« on: December 12, 2018, 05:23:56 AM »
Meeting begins 12th dec. Streaming video available. Chekitout:



thanks for recalling the pointer to ACME/ESM.


I think is is becoming clear that melt will overwhelm firn retention and will run to the ocean. Watching melt lakes climb as ELA climbs is disquieting. I see that meltlakes are close to the top of 67N saddle now. What is worse is the huge latent heat the water sheds to ice upon any refreeze. That raises ice temperature and Glen's law exponent kills you with warmer ice speeding out the big tidewater outlets. 79N is still remarkably quiescent in spite of substantial melt lakes over NEGIS.

But perhaps this discussion should move to one of the Greenland threads.


Re: ITCZ, question for abruptSLR

in the ACME modelling efforts, have they fixed the double ITCZ problem that most GCMs have ?


The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: December 06, 2018, 10:00:08 PM »
I should note here that there are many examples of excitations which can have momentum in a different direction than (group) velocity. One famous example is rotons in liquid helium. Another is phonons in a crystal. But that takes us rather far afield.


Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:28:36 AM »
Re: " If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?"

Let heat coming in from shortwave = Qdot_in, heat going out Qdot_out

right now Qdot_out is less than Qdot_in, 

deltaQdot=Qdot_in - Qdot_out

is greater than zero

a) Qdot_out goes up at T^4

so as earth (actually, top of atmosphere) warms, Qdot_out goes up very quickly and deltaQdot decreases

b)Qdot_out increases as atmospheric CO2 decreases (keeping a bunch of other things the same ...) so again deltaQdot decreases

Re: "Decreasing carbon sinks?"

not considered important over decadal scale

Re: "10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? "

No. decadal scale is for peak temperature after emission cease. And then the earth keeps warming for a decade or two, but because of the T^4 factor and CO2 drawdown earth will achieve radiative balance and a peak temperature.. The peak temperature is dictated by cumulative emission. Then temperature will decrease as CO2 leaves the atmosphere.

Earth will remain warmer forawhile until oceanic turnover timescale(1kyr) and continental weathering timescale (10-100Kyr)

I should mention radiative imbalance above preindustrial is about 2.3W/m^2 and because we have already warmed, current imbalance is around 1W/m^2

My guess is that with RCP2.6 we will remain in Eemian for 40Kyr or so ...


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: November 20, 2018, 05:25:21 AM »
Ferguson interview at Jacobin, primarily on racism and economic influence on Trump support, but he has things to say about the Democratic party:

"The key issue right now is surely what will happen in the Democratic Party. The decisive issue for American life in the coming decades is what to do about the inability of most people to make a decent (“middle-class”) living and enjoy access to public services like education, day care, quality medical care, or secure retirements. Capitalist economies in developed countries are no longer providing these things. Full stop."

"Watching the existing Democratic Party leadership react to the rising talk of democratic socialism is instructive. It is plainly trying to find ways to tap the bourgeoning energy for purposes of increasing electoral turnout, while playing with the movement’s issues like a cat with a ball of yarn."

"The hollowness of a much-touted Democratic reform proposal — that candidates should solemnly pledge to refuse corporate PAC money — is patent. It is a sham, purely and simply. They know very well that big ticket donations from the 1 percent will still roll in, in several forms."

"For Democrats to offer real solutions, the party has to break its dependency on big money. Until it does I expect that turmoil within the party will run rampant. "


The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 13, 2018, 12:50:58 AM »
Now here's an outsider: Ojeda

“The reason why the Democratic Party fell from grace is because they become nothing more than elitist. That was it. Goldman Sachs, that’s who they were. The Democratic Party is supposed to be the party that fights for the working class, and that’s exactly what I do. I will stand with unions wholeheartedly, and that’s the problem: the Democratic Party wants to say that, but their actions do not mirror that.”

"Members of Congress, he proposes, should be required to donate their net wealth above a certain threshold — Ojeda puts it at a million dollars — to discourage using public office for private gain. In return, retired members of Congress would get a pension of $130,000 a year and be able to earn additional income to reach $250,000. Anything above that would be donated."

“When you get into politics, that’s supposed to be a life of service, but that’s not what it’s been. You know, a person goes into politics, they win a seat in Congress or the Senate, and it’s a $174,000 [salary], but yet two years later, they’re worth $30 million, and that’s one of the problems that we have in society today. That’s how come no one trusts — or has very much respect for — politicians,”

Heeheehee. I like him already.


The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:14:01 PM »
Massacre by proxy: "there is an American imprint on every single civilian death inside Yemen."

"We sell them the bombs, we help them with the targeting, we fuel their planes in mid-air, and we give them moral cover ... We also have made no meaningful effort at all to try to find a path to peace."


The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 05, 2018, 09:36:08 PM »
Lapham at lithub on plutocracy and politics in the USA:

"Trump is undoubtedly a menace, but he isn’t a surprise. His smug and self-satisfied face is the face of the way things are and have been in Washington and Wall Street for the last quarter of a century."

"Trump was there to say, and say it plainly, that money is power, and power, ladies and gentlemen, is not self-sacrificing or democratic. The big money cares for nothing other than itself, always has and always will. "

"A fair enough share of his fellow citizens screamed, stamped and voted in agreement because what he was saying they knew to be true, knew it not as precept borrowed from the collected works of V.I. Lenin or Ralph Lauren but from their own downwardly mobile experience on the losing side of a class war waged over the past 40 years by America’s increasingly frightened and selfish rich against its increasingly angry and debtbound poor."

"Trump is president of the United States, and what in 1988 was a weakened but still operational democracy has become a dysfunctional, stupefied plutocracy. "

"The nation’s political discourse meanwhile has dwindled into the staging of election campaigns with candidates prized for the gift of saying nothing. Forbidden the use of words apt to disturb a Gallup poll or offend a bagman, they stand and serve as product placements for concentrated wealth, their quality to be inferred from the cost of their manufacture. "

“The fundamental division of powers in the Constitution of the United States is between voters on the one hand and property owners on the other. The forces of democracy on the one side . . . and the forces of property on the other side.”

"At no moment in its history has the country not been nailed to a cross of gold. "

 “those who own the country ought to govern it.”

"Faith in democracy survived the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963; it didn’t survive the assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King in 1968. "

"The visual order of print sustains a sequence of cause and effect, tells a story with a beginning, middle and end. The speed of light spreads stories that run around in circles, eliminate the dimensions of space and time, construct a world in which nothing follows from anything else. Sequence becomes additive instead of causative, “Graphic Man” replaces “Typographic Man,” and the images of government become a government of images."

"the amassment of wealth and the acquisition of power follows from the naming of things rather than from the making of them. The future is a product to be sold, not a story to be told."

"Advertising is the voice of money talking to money"

"Typographic Man wrote the Constitution and the Gettysburg Address; Graphic Man elects the president of the United States. "

"The comic book hero won the comic book election."

"The excellence of Mark Zuckerberg is the excellence of Donald Trump, product placements of concentrated wealth but also embodiments of the spirit of an age ... "

"What can be said about the big money can also be said about technology: it cares for nothing other than itself, collects and stores the dots but connects them only to other dots ... Siri, Watson and Alexa can access the Library of Congress, but they don’t read the books. "

" ...  if left to its own devices, the Dionysian god in the machine of creatively annihilating capitalism must devour and destroy the earth. Not with malice aforethought, but because it is a machine, and like all machines knows not what else to do."

Read the whole thing:


Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 04, 2018, 04:11:47 AM »
Re:The elimination of CO2e emissions will not stop the continuation of accelerated temperature rises and global heat energy balance.

I was asking for supporting evidence for that statement.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 23, 2018, 09:58:12 AM »
This time he's really done.


Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 19, 2018, 06:28:35 AM »
Re: "Say that 5% is the result of the CO2 feedback."

Mmm. Glacial-interglacial swing is a lot more than that. But, there are a lot of other things going on, so back to a vanNes type approach, for me, nyhoo.

I think  a lot of the difficulty in is imprecision of definition. We don't have an Earth where CO2 ppm increases by 1%/yr for seventy year. We don't have an Earth where we instantaneously double CO2, hold it there and see what happens in a thousand. So everything is in terms of hypothetical, modelled Earths. TCR, ECS and even ESS are what happens on these modelled Earths.

Meta: not on topic

In a larger view indicators like global mean surface temperature or climate sensitivities are of peripheral interest to me.

Since, here in the sidd Unalmighty world, we subject Gaia to multiple stressors, CO2 being just one. We use around a third of NPP, we hugely increase runoff impermeable surface, we establish monoculture and GMO crop to exclusion of else, we suck underground aquifers dry and mighty rivers, and poison both and kill oceans to boot. And many more stressors will occur to you.
Doom looms nigh. The threat that will overtake us first is not direct temperature increase but habitat collapse. Our habitat.

There's probably a thread for that discussion, but it is not here, so i'll shutup.


Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 19, 2018, 01:36:36 AM »
I think one key warning against using T/CO2 regression is the following argument. Lets say i am god and i have an infinite number of planet earths to play with.

I dial up CO2 (i have an infinite number of CO2 cylinders) in the atmosphere while keeping all else constant. Then T will increase.

Next  i take another planet earth and dial up T keeping all else constant (i have an infinite number of heaters) , then CO2 will increase. 

There are a number of objections to this argument, one is that it is not possible even for god to violate the laws of physics, therefore i could not hold all else constant. That is precisely the problem that vanNes addresses, an attempt to disentangle the major feedbacks and feedforwards.


Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 18, 2018, 10:54:51 PM »
Re: problems with using T and CO2 regressions for climate sensitivity

in context of ESS, i commented in,1053.msg123247.html#msg123247

In addition to the link listed there i add some realclimate discussions which are quite good, even the comments(?!)

and there are others posts on realclimate that speak of related matters.


Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 18, 2018, 10:15:22 PM »
Re: 50 years is actually a pretty long time, though. 

If this method is taken seriously, then the points at the hi end of the graph would be closest to TCR definition. And indeed we see the slope of the last three points increasing ... but i dont think the noise is small enuf to say so definitively.

But a more important reason to doubt this approach is that not only does CO2 have effect on T, the reverse is also true ... so disentangling the two calls for a more subtle argument, as, say, in vanNes(2015) doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2568

Although i note that vanNes worked with much longer timescales and did not explicitly calculate a climate sensitivity ...


The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 18, 2018, 08:50:08 PM »
Satrap pursues peace, Empire resists:

"United States opposes a plan by South and North Korea to set up a no-fly zone over their heavily fortified border ..."

The proposal also calls for demining the Korean border, which Empire also opposes.

Bellum sine fine. There Is No Alternative.


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: October 16, 2018, 08:05:05 AM »
Re: amount of summer melt in GIS

well GIS is losing approx. 300-400 gigaton per year and Enderlin has shown some years ago that it is melt driving, rather than discharge.

open access, read all about it: doi: 10.1002/2013GL059010

i attach fig 3.


Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: October 15, 2018, 11:51:27 PM »
Sjursen on the myths of the West:

“I have come to kill Indians and believe it is right and honorable to use any means under God’s heaven to kill Indians.”

"By 1860, only 30,000 California Indians (out of 150,000) remained alive"

 “The only good Indians I ever saw were dead.”

“possession is a disease with them [white men].”

"In 1870, the Supreme Court ruled that Congress had the power to “supersede or even annul treaties” with Indian tribes. "

"The original (Hispanic) residents of California and the Southwest were promised their private landholdings would be protected under the provisions of the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo ... It was not to be. "

 “Mexicans have no business in this country. The men were made to be shot at, and the women were made for our purposes. I’m a white man—I am! A Mexican is pretty near black. I hate all Mexicans.”

"Are “undocumented” Mexican immigrants “illegal intruders,” or rightful residents of “Occupied America”? "

"Indians had adhered to treaties more faithfully than whites and were rewarded with banishment, theft, war and at times extermination."

" [Out of] five of the poorest U.S. counties ...  four—Buffalo, Todd and Shannon in South Dakota and Wade Hampton in Alaska ...  are all Indian reservations ... or places with major Native American majorities"

"These counties, each filled with thousands of tragic individual stories, are living relics of our past; of each phase of the U.S. government’s calamitous Indian policy—first, removal, then concentration, followed by confinement to the reservation, and, finally, hopeless forced assimilation. "


Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: October 09, 2018, 12:51:54 AM »
Elbein at the intercept on the brutality done to animals by large CAFO operations:

"They walked toward the sound, as one volunteer described it later, of thousands of cattle screaming."

“They pee, poop, eat, sleep in one small space.”

"clinging to the fur of the cattle, the feces caked on the floor, where it was kicked into aerosol by the nervous shuffling of thousands of calves."

" mass cannibalism in cage-free chicken houses that supplied Costco. They found turkeys packed together with open sores, in six inches of feces, in a California farm that Whole Foods had marked as the best of the best."

"1 in 5 calves suffers from diarrhea severe enough to require antibiotics, according to a dairy industry study, and when calves die — as about 7 percent do, on average — diarrhea is the cause of death half the time."

"they brought the calf, who they named Nick, to a veterinarian office, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia — the other major killer of calves — and given little chance of survival ... he had been taken away the day he was born ..."

"if a dairy farm raises a calf in tight confinement, butchers it, and sells the meat as veal — that’s illegal. But raise the same calf in the same conditions, butcher it the same way, and sell it as beef: That’s legal. And if the farm similarly confines that calf’s sister, who will join the dairy herd — that’s legal too."

“It’s very powerful to see these animals run for the first time ... they’ve been in a crate, never had the chance to run ... You see them staring at the sky, stare at something colorful, and you realize they’ve never seen it before. "

Read the whole thing, if you have the stomach.

Eat less meat and dairy. And make sure the cattle are humanely raised and killed as mercifully and painlessly as possible. There are very few things worse than hearing the cries of an animal whose slaughter is being botched.


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 04, 2018, 06:04:38 AM »
I would like to thank Mr. Neven and Mr. Petit (and perhaps other moderators i have missed) for their patience in wading thru the muck while moderating this forum. It is easy for members like me to disregard entire threads or individual posters but they do not have that luxury.  They have to deal with every temper tantrum on every thread, i am quite impressed by their forbearance. I have run moderated lists and groups before and i would have ejected many more than they have.

I offer a lesson from Usenet: i have found the best (moderated) newsgroups are the ones most tightly focussed with draconian moderation. Some of the better newsgroups have a policy that any complaint about moderation is instantly rejected.

The next best are those where the posters and audience  know how to use killfiles (in this case, ignore lists)  and do.

Lastly, i would remind that this forum is Mr. Neven's forum. When I visit someone, i defer to his wishes as to what may or may not be discussed. If those limits displease me, i am free to go elsewhere. That is merely common courtesy. I suggest those unhappy with Mr. Neven's judgements start their own forum.


The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 02, 2018, 08:29:18 AM »
Is it possible to block off forum messages from another user ? As in the cases quoted above, it seems that some such messages are unwelcome.


Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 29, 2018, 12:27:19 AM »
I have posted here before on the floods in Kerala. Here is something on the aftermath and the remarkable resilience of women. It is not coincidental that Kerala has a strongly matriarchal society.

Those women's meetings can get quite ... rambunctious. Some of the more obscene jokes I have heard in Malayalam have been at predominantly women's gatherings in Kerala.


Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: September 27, 2018, 05:43:08 AM »
Guardian series on climate migrants in the USA :

Very worth reading.


Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: September 25, 2018, 11:53:37 PM »
US fertility drops to all time low:


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 24, 2018, 05:45:53 AM »
XXX cartel predicts massive rise in XXX consumption. Color me unsurprised.


The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: September 19, 2018, 11:06:51 PM »
McGovern at consortiumnews  on declassification: deep state will resist:

"top officials of the Justice Department, the FBI, and the intelligence agencies — have zero incentive to comply “immediately.” And they have minus-zero incentive, as the top echelons see it, to throw their former bosses, colleagues, and co-conspirators under the bus by releasing the family jewels."

"Russia-gate, in a phrase, has become too big to fail"


Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: September 19, 2018, 10:33:04 PM »
An icecap in Russia has accelerated hugely due to bed turning slippery:

" where rates of motion accelerated to 9125 ± 354 m/y ..."

"These results show that up until 2013 the glacier was strongly supported by the bed. By 2015, the bed can no longer support the driving stresses, which are predominantly supported by longitudinal stress gradients and lateral drag. An extraordinary transition from a high friction bed to a near frictionless bed has taken place over just two years."

"There is, however, a general acceptance that ice caps in the polar regions will only respond slowly to a warming climate and changes in boundary conditions. Our observations indicate this assumption should be questioned, especially when glaciers can advance over low friction sediments. We show polar glaciers that have bed elevations above sea level can rapidly collapse."

I shudder to think of something like Thwaites doing this.

doi: 10.1016/j.epsl.2018.08.049


Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: September 04, 2018, 07:54:53 AM »
Re: Yearly petawatt+ hour demand for electric car/truck fleet

Precisely. And that corresponds to triple that amount cut in oil consumption.

Every single utility in the USA sees that. They got a chance to take away a huge market from oil. They are all ramping up. If they don't, they see someone else come along and build the solar/wind/storage complexes and cut em out of the game.

AEP is out there. They got the Army Corps of Engineers building them 300MW run of the river hydro on the Ohio to be used to balance wind/solar,  they have a MW size soldium sulphur battery going, they're aggressively moving into flow batteries. PGE in CA, PSEG, ConEd out east are even further ahead.

Catchin the wave.

No, sorry, no nukes. No financing in the USA for that. Not with the Westinghouse bakruptcy and Vogtle boondoggle.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 04, 2018, 12:20:51 AM »
NREL has a discussion on the area of land required to power USA with PV: 10 million acres.

2008 paper

"we find that the base case solar electric footprint is equal to less than 2% of the land dedicated to cropland and grazing in the United States, and less than the current amount of land used for corn ethanol production."

later(2013) more detailed estimate covering CSP, tracking, thermal, with references:

Images at landartgenerator for various technologies:


The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: September 02, 2018, 06:12:47 AM »
Can "Policy and Solutions" group also be blocked from fromt page list of recent posts ?


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: August 31, 2018, 12:56:50 AM »
Going, going ...

"FirstEnergy Solutions said Wednesday it plans to shut down its remaining four coal plants by 2022. The three Ohio plants are on the Ohio River in Stratton. Its last Pennsylvania coal plant is in Shippingport."

Thats a hard hit to jobs in Steubenville and Shippingsport. I go thru those areas. Ain't much there. Trump country, but that's for another thread ...

There's seven 180MW units in Steubenville, 4 are already gonna shut in 2020, last three axed now. Shippimgport is 2.5GWatt total, 3 units. A few gigawatt here, a few gigawatt there, pretty soon you talking serious coal tonnage.


Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 10:43:08 PM »
"I am really tired of wading through such posts."

The ignore setting is there for a reason ...


Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 09:02:59 PM »
Re: "400mw/h" "1MW/H"

Please be careful with units.

MWH is energy. MW is power. Power is the first time derivative of energy.

MW/H would be an increase/decrease in power or a rate of change of power; it is the second time derivative of energy. You might use that term in comparing ramping rates of power plants.


Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 07:50:45 AM »
"400 gallons of diesel has 15MW of energy "

Wait, what ? MW is power. MWH is energy. H is hour. MWH is 1 megawatt for 1 hour. As i just finished explaining, power and energy are related by time.

1 Joule is 1 watt for 1 second. 1 watt is 1 Joule per second. 1 megawatthour(MWH) is 1e6watt for 3600 seconds=3.6Gigajoule.

1 gallon of diesel has 150 MJoule energy. If you burnt 1 gallon of diesel in 10 seconds you would generate 150MJoule/10sec=15MW of power. For 10 seconds.

If you really want to see 15MW up close (not recommended at all, you will lose hair, perhaps skin, or more) toss a gallon of diesel on a roaring bonfire.

400 gallons of diesel has 400x150 = 60000 MJoule energy. Or 60 GigaJoule. Thats roughly 15 MWH, is that what you meant ? But your next sentence leaves me flummoxed again

"5MW of distance"

say what ? MW is power. Distance is distance.

How fast do you wanna burn  ? that will tell you power output.

Divide energy by time to get power. Multiply power by time to get energy.

Lets say you burnt 400 gallon fast enuf to get 15MW out. Thats a gallon every 10 seconds, it would take 4000 seconds to burn 400 gallon diesel, or 67 minutes. Whatcha driving, a dragline ? cargo container at hi speed, capn wants to water ski ?


The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 30, 2018, 12:36:25 AM »
FBI is oh, so, so carefully economical with the truth.

“The FBI has not found any evidence the servers were compromised.”

Precisely: The FBI didn't find the evidence. ICIG did. As i posted before:

"ICIG spotted the oversight after the FBI missed it ..."


The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 29, 2018, 09:44:15 PM »
And this is the sysadmin Combetta asking for help on reddit ... (not even on stackexchange, altho he might b there as well)

He tried to remove his comments, but the internet never forgets ... Page 2: Page 3: Page 4: Page 5: Page 6: Page 7: Page 8: Page 9: Page 10:

Poor, dumb fuck. Did get immunity tho.


The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: August 28, 2018, 11:18:04 PM »
Sjursen on the full throated calls for war by neocons and democrats alike:

"these days Maddow and her fellow "mainstream" progressives at MSNBC and CNN sound like hysterical, bellicose neocons. "

I suspect he will shortly be denounced as Putin stooge.

Science / Re: Comparison: forcings from CO2, CH4, N2O
« on: August 25, 2018, 05:44:53 AM »
"It appears to me that you are encouraging Ned W to use out of date methodology/values for calculating radiative forcing."

And it appears to me that Mr. Ned W. has the better arguments, and the better math.


Science / Re: Comparison: forcings from CO2, CH4, N2O
« on: August 24, 2018, 11:50:01 PM »
Thanks Mr. Ned W. Very clear.


The rest / Elections 2018 USA
« on: August 22, 2018, 10:16:23 AM »
Kick it off with an article from the only news publication one needs to read, all the news you need to know, America's  finest news source:


It’s clear that the disgusting and disgraceful voters are going to try to influence the midterms ...


We’ve got voters with ulterior motives online, too, trying to influence people by spreading information about candidates on social media. We absolutely cannot as a society allow voters to meddle in our elections, and
if we don’t do something, voters will try to interfere with the 2020 presidential election, too.


 ... attempting to calm him down by reminding him that there was virtually no evidence to suggest that American voters were interested in influencing midterm elections.



Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 21, 2018, 07:35:26 AM »
"People want EV's that they can treat like fossil-fuel trucks"

Wait ,what ? I know a buncha people runnin battery vehicles. I know at least one car auction place thats runnin battery trucks as station vehicle. I know several car dealers runnin electric cars as runabouts. I know at least half a dozen truckers (in deep red trump country, no less) runnin electric cars as their daily drivers to get to and from the big rigs. And I know a few that run tricked out tesla and bmw electrics at the drag races (ya, they got a special category for electric, they were leaving the rest in the dust ...)

None of them are under any illusions that they can run the things like a F-350 diesel, for example. Hell, three quarters of them probably own an equivalent. But, guess what, they don't drive the thing unless they got to haul sumpn that demands it. Their daily drivers are the smallest cars they can get away with.

To get back to that F-350 diesel example, as soon as a electric pickup comes along that they can sling 3 tons in the bed and haul three tons behind it for three hundred mile at the right price, (currently about 50-60K US$ depending on your transmission choices,) they'll buy it.

The big rigs are gonna change to electric sooner than pickups. I deal with several long haul trucking companies and they cant wait, champing at the bit to switch. And to switch over to autodrive and fire all the drivers. The drivers know it.


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