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Messages - sidd

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1
META:

please could someone correct the misspelling in the title ?

sidd

2
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: March 24, 2019, 09:26:49 PM »
Cohen at counterpunch: democrats running on obama era policies will lose

"We need to remember the vacillation – and worse, the opportunism and corporatism. As well as cause and effect: that Obama’s tenure paved the way for the rise of Trump."

He refers to an article by Stoller in 2017 at wapo:

" the past eight years of policymaking have damaged Democrats at all levels. Recovering Democratic strength will require the party’s leaders to come to terms with what it has become — and the role Obama played in bringing it to this point."

"The resulting policy framework of Tim Geithner’s Treasury Department was, in effect, a wholesale attack on the American home (the main store of middle-class wealth) in favor of concentrated financial power. The second was the administration’s pro-monopoly policies, which crushed the rural areas that in 2016 lost voter turnout and swung to Donald Trump."

" Obama prioritized creditor rights, placing most of the burden on borrowers. This kept big banks functional and ensured that financiers would maintain their positions in the recovery. "

“We can either have a rational resolution to the foreclosure crisis, or we can preserve the capital structure of the banks. We can’t do both.”

" Obama’s administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the crisis. "

"Obama enabled and encouraged roughly 9 million foreclosures. This was Geithner’s explicit policy at Treasury. "

"When Democratic leaders don’t protect the people, the people get poorer, they get angry, and more of them die."

"Though 58 percent of Americans were in favor of government action to halt foreclosures, Obama’s administration balked. And voters noticed."

" the reality is that the Democratic Party has been slipping away from the working class for some time, and Obama’s presidency hastened rather than reversed that departure."

Stoller's article is at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/01/12/democrats-cant-win-until-they-recognize-how-bad-obamas-financial-policies-were/

Cohen continues:

"Like Emanuel, Obama’s next two chiefs of staff also came out of big finance: William Daley from JP Morgan Chase and Jacob Lew from Citigroup."

"Yes, Obama faced intense Republican obstruction in Congress. But it wasn’t Mitch McConnell who stacked the Obama administration with corporatist appointees and policies."

"The last two Democratic presidents gave “hope” a bad name."

"To win back these voters – and to inspire voters of color and youth – will require a Democratic nominee who is a forward-looking, progressive populist."

"While it’s true that “any Democrat is better than Trump,” reverting back to the Obama era is a return to a status quo that stopped working for millions of voters long ago."

Read the whole thing:

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/03/22/lets-not-restore-or-mythologize-obama/

sidd


3
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: March 24, 2019, 12:48:57 AM »
Johnstone in no mood to take prisoners:  Never stop mocking them

"We must never let mainstream Democrats forget how crazy they got, how much time and energy they wasted, how very, very wrong they were and how very, very right we were."

https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2019/03/22/the-mueller-report-is-in-they-were-wrong-we-were-right/

I'm not so sure. This is almost like the hate levelled toward Trump voters from some democrats. Neither side, in my experience, is totally crazy. Sure, they're all crazy about some things, but then, hell, so am I.

At the end of the day, in my neck of the woods, regardless of my neighbours' views on politics or religion or race or war or much else, we still help each other out. We raise each other's barns, fix each other's tractors, attend each other's christenings and weddings and festivals and funerals. We comfort each other in grief and we share in joy.

Sure they're all nuts, but about different things. And none are irredeemably evil and none irredeemably lost.

sidd

4
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:12:07 AM »
"If this pattern persists, it may signal a larger problem,"

No shit. Guess what, Sherlock, it's gonna not only persist, but get worse.

Now as to :

"The flooding surrounded fuel tanks at Offutt Air Force Base and tipped over one, which military officials said was empty and had been decommissioned"

These people lie and lie and lie. I deal with those large oil tanks. Even when empty there is sludge in the bottom, toxic, the worst stuff settles out during operation. Thats why its impossible to sell a fuel oil tank until you clean out the sludge, and doing that is usually worth more than the tank at end of life. Now that tank in the picture on its side looks about 5-10Kgallon, i guarantee there was 500-1000 gallon of sludge in the bottom. When that thing floats up and tips over it ripped all the plumbing out, and probably popped a weld or two when it tipped. All that sludge is in the Missouri.

Now take a look at the walls around the tanks. Thats the spill containment. When you put a big tank in you got to build a retaining wall round it, enuf to retain spill of all tank contents. Now you can see that the two tanks  still standing also have spill containment full of water.

Now the inside of those spill containments at large facilities are pretty gross places. Place like Offut, been goin for decades, that floor of that spill containment had decades of contaminant from millions of little spills over the long years. All that is in the river.

My tax dollars at play.

sidd

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 22, 2019, 04:54:24 AM »
"Japan is Australia’s largest export customer for thermal coal. Of the proposed pipeline of coal power projects in Japan in 2015, figures from the Global Coal Plant tracker show three-quarters are now unlikely to proceed."

Yeehaa. Adnani going downnnn.

sidd

6
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 15, 2019, 07:50:44 AM »
I have noticed that links posted now include a bit that goes "?fbclid=" followed by a long string. That string is a facebook tracker.

for example:

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-young-people-call-for-buying-boycott-in-climate-change-protest-Boycott-Citoyen?fbclid=IwAR1FmFU8BfGyqTbDMhks920qGTrxMU9VxaGjINKlPO-yX-6l43wXWSgT5dc

the link allows facebook (and probably the rest of NSAgoofacetwit) knows exactly where the poster saw that link. So now they know also that anyone who clicks that link saw that particular post. Und so weiter.

Please strip goofacetwit trackers off the end of your links. Just that link without everything after and including the "?fbclid=" works fine. For now.

So a perfectly good link is

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-young-people-call-for-buying-boycott-in-climate-change-protest-Boycott-Citoyen

without the facebook tracker.

But of course i notice that the link target also has a facebook tracker. So if you clicked on the link with the "?fbclid=" bit included,  then facebook knows which link you saw, and who posted it. Your browser probably sends the referrer tag, so they know you saw it on nevens arctic forum.

if you stripped out  the tracker and cut and pasted the rest into an anonymous browser window, then they get your IP and browser fingerprint. (They got those in both previous cases also)

(I notice that reuters and a couple other sites now make unstrippable tags like that, so one needs cleverer defense.)

I am probably boring people, so i will stop.

sidd

7
Re: "weeks or months" for collapse of bentley trench

I think that is impossible under current conditions. First, as Mercer pointed out, oh, so many decades ago, you need the 0C isotherm to migrate into the bentley trench, and then remain there for large fraction of summer. Then you might have substantial surface melt and hydrofracture enuf to meet up with basal crevasses. And then you might have icecube collapse in a few decades.

But the ice wont stay in place. Long b4 that glacier flow rate will skyrocket due to glen's law exponent dependence on temperature and we shall have iceberg armadas in southern ocean thru calving.

So watch the grounding lines rather than surface melt for now. When the westerlies around antarctica start breaking down enuf to allow 0C isotherm incursion deep into heart of WAIS, then you might see Peacock's apocalypse stretched out over a decade or three.  But that will b after a lot of other apocalypse.

From a physics point of view, the problem is  moving enuf heat into the ice sheet fast enuf to cause icecube collapse; fast enuf to surpass and overcome ice export thru flow rate increase due to glen's law exponent increase. I really see no way to do that except rain. CDW incursion really doesn't get into the bulk of the ice, its a basal and frontal thing. And we wont get rain until westerlies break down massively and Mercer's 0C isotherm acts up.

Blanchon(2009) has some interesting graphs which i have posted b4 about rates of SLR. Worst case seems to be a meter evry 20 yrs continuing for 500 yr.

doi:10.1038/nature07933

sidd

 

8
Re: Radko

After thinking about it some more, I wonder if the instability against layering manifests in the Southerm Hemisphere ? CDW and neighbours are quite different from AMOC but the analysis seems quite general. I shall have to reread Dutrieux and others, in particular Hellmer on warm/cold cavities under ice shelves, in this light. The ocean transects by the current Thwaites effort should illuminate.

sidd
 

9
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:13:34 AM »
Barker at n+1 on Volcker and the great bloodletting:

"In Akron, the commercial blood bank reduced the prices it would pay by 20 percent due to the glut of laid-off tireworkers lining up to bleed."

"a price index doesn’t have a spine or a seam; the broken bodies and rent garments of the early 1980s belonged to people. Reagan economic adviser Michael Mussa was nearer the truth when he said that “to establish its credibility, the Federal Reserve had to demonstrate its willingness to spill blood, lots of blood, other people’s blood.”  "

" This was the practical embodiment of Milton Friedman’s idea that there was a natural rate of unemployment, and attempts to go below it would always cause inflation ... there need to be millions of unemployed workers for the economy to work as it should."

" Events like these helped deliver the coup de grâce to the ambitious third world politics of the 1970s, exemplified by the call for a New International Economic Order "

“Volcker was selected because he was the candidate of Wall Street. This was their price, in effect.”

"Volcker says “the most important single action of the [Reagan] administration in helping the anti-inflation fight” was defeating the air traffic controllers’ (PATCO) strike in 1981, when Reagan fired and permanently replaced ten thousand government workers and arrested their leaders. The show of force had “a psychological effect on the strength of the union bargaining position on other issues—whatever the issues were.” He was right: in 1979, twenty-one million Americans belonged to a union; in 2003, despite substantial growth in the workforce, the number was down to just under sixteen million. After the crushing of PATCO, those unions became less restive ..."

 “The result [of the Volcker regime] was to transfer inflation from the nonfinancial to the financial economy ..."

"Obsession with central bank independence has roots, like most things in America, in the class war. To raise interest rates in response to low unemployment rates, even when inflation is low, is to make sure that the ratio of surplus going to workers does not change. That the vigilant central bank, whatever else it may be, is an instrument of class rule should not surprise anyone ..."

" The best way to discover what was possible in the 1970s would be to test the limits of what is possible today. "

Read the whole thing:

https://nplusonemag.com/online-only/online-only/other-peoples-blood/

sidd

10
Re: Radko

I have read the paper more carefully and it does have this to say about diffusive heat transport and sea ice melt:

" Turner (2010) concludes that diffusive convection has contributed significantly to the observed increase in sea ice melting during the past few decades. Polyakov et al. (2017) reinforce this suggestion by demonstrating that the impact of the diffusive heat transport from AW on the sea ice loss in the Eurasian Basin is now comparable to, or possibly exceeds, the level attributed to atmospheric forcing. The staircase region today is about 100 m shallower, and layer thicknesses have doubled in comparison to measurements taken in 1985 (Padman & Dillon, 1987; Timmermans et al., 2008). The systematic increase in mean layer thickness, in turn, implies the systematic amplification of diffusive heat transport. Remarkably, despite the undeniable significance of thermohaline staircases for high‐latitude ocean dynamics, the physical mechanism of their formation has not been fully explained after more than half a century of observation.

Another diffusively generated phenomenon that is widespread in polar oceans is thermohaline interleaving (e.g., Rudels et al., 2009). Interleaving is characterized by lateral intrusive flows that mix adjacent water masses with different T‐S properties (Ruddick & Kerr, 2003; Ruddick & Richards, 2003). Fully developed intrusions are readily recognized in temperature and salinity profiles by alternating patterns of positive and negative vertical T‐S gradients. In the Arctic, intrusions spread relatively warm and salty AW from boundary currents at the basin periphery into fresher and colder interior regions. They can reach extraordinary large scales of up to a hundred meters in height and remain laterally coherent over hundreds of kilometers (e.g., Carmack et al., 1999; Merryfield, 2002)."

sidd

11
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 24, 2019, 11:48:27 PM »
Worms going away:  "rare or absent in two out of five fields" in the UK

https://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/land-preparation/soils/major-survey-finds-worms-are-rare-or-absent-in-20-of-fields

I see the same in the midwest. Decades of corn-soy rotations and fertilizer and herbicide and pesticide has left the soil lifeless.

sidd

12
Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 23, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
The Kafka continues:

Apparently, torture disclosure for propaganda is fine.
But such disclosure to defense lawyers for the tortured ?
No way. 

"The lawyers discovered that in the CIA’s year-long cooperation with the film-makers, the agency shared details of Baluchi’s torture at a secret prison, or black site, which they had been told were too secret to be divulged."

"The trial has yet to begin, despite the fact that Baluchi and his four other co-accused in the 9/11 case have been in Guantánamo for 13 years and were first charged in 2008. "

"In the pre-trial hearings, which have been underway for nearly seven years, the defence teams have been repeatedly denied access to witnesses and documentation that might cast light on their clients’ captivity prior to arriving in Guantánamo."

"“Although we have received no orders to do so, we are currently prepared to take in up to an additional 40 detainees with no additional staffing requirements.

“With minimal adjustments to current infrastructure and manpower we could take up to 200 detainees total,” he said. "

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/feb/22/ammar-al-baluchi-pre-trial-911-cia-guantanamo-bay-torture

I got an idea. If they wanna throw more people in there, how about Bush the lesser, Cheney, Tenet, Rice Addington, Yoo, Bybee ... dump em all in Guantanamo. Did they say they had room for 200 ? Toss in some bankers, too.
 
sidd

13
Thanks for the link to Purkey, i always read her. I note that Johnson is on this one too, and some of the usual suspects. Pity ARGO don't go that deep. Yet.

I hope she's doing one on the whole southern hemisphere, rather than just the Pacific.

"Here, we have shown that the AABW throughout the South Pacific has warmed, with
a possible slight acceleration in the most recent decade. The warming is accompanied by a
clear bottom-intensified freshening, strongest in the Ross Sea and Amundsen-Bellingshausen
Basin, but with early signs of the arrival of a fresher variety of AABW to the Southwest
Pacific Basin seen in the 2016/17 occupations of P15 and P06. The warming for P > 4000 m
is equivalent to an accumulation of energy at a rate of 3.5 (±0.1) MW in the deep ocean and
drives a local SLR of 0.14 (±0.04) mm yr -1 from thermal expansion, making it an important
contributor to ocean heat uptake and SLR."

That bit about recent freshening in the southwest pacific might be linked to Totten and neighbours.

I attach fig 5, note that the Amundsen-Bellinghausen is the only one cooling at depths above 3000dbar( roughly the same as meters)

sidd

14
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 19, 2019, 08:53:50 AM »
Bergman at guardian on florida real estate: money, money, money

"Miami streets will flood every year by 2070."

" luxury condominiums going up in flood-prone South Beach, and property values rising in the vulnerable Keys, post-Hurricane Irma ... a culture of “systemic, fraudulent nondisclosure” "

"low-income neighborhoods like Little Haiti are rising in value and under pressure from developers because of their higher ground ... raising the rents, forcing renters onto month-to-month leases ... "

“I’m worried we’re one bad storm away from a rush for the exits,”

 “great fishing”

" a significant percentage of at-risk properties are owned by people of color."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/15/florida-climate-change-coastal-real-estate-rising-seas

sidd

15
The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: February 15, 2019, 06:27:44 AM »
America's Finest News Source: Everybody was doin the Abrams shuffle

"Elliott Abrams defended Wednesday the war crimes he committed in Latin America by pointing out that it was just something everyone was doing ... "

"You’d find a military force friendly to American business interests, get them to slaughter anyone who wasn’t, and then dismiss the victims as communist guerillas. "

" Hell, I knew people who would make fun of you if you hadn’t committed a war crime or two."

Plus ca change ...

https://politics.theonion.com/elliott-abrams-defends-war-crimes-as-happening-back-in-1832632902

sidd

16
The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: February 11, 2019, 09:41:13 AM »
Scheer Intelligence has a very goot interview with Ron Kovic and Danny Sjursen. Ron Kovic is the man who is depicted in the Oliver Stone film "Born on the Fourth of July."

Sjursen: " And I would submit that between Vietnam and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, in one sense we, the collective we, this society has learned very little, and made some of the same mistakes. But then in another sense, the foreign policy elites have learned something rather profound. "

"the foreign policy elite, the militarists who run this government, learned a different lesson. And the lesson they learned is that if you conscript people, if you draft people, if you bring the American people along into a war, then there might be protests. There might be people who turn against that war when the time comes. But if you send a small group of volunteers over, and over, and over again, even to fruitless wars that are not in our national security interests—like Iraq, like Afghanistan, like Syria—you can maintain a war endlessly. "

"I went to Iraq first and then Afghanistan—really shattered those illusions that America was a humanitarian force for good. Instead, in Iraq, I saw us shatter a society that went into a civil war, in addition to attacking us. And watched how we had just completely destroyed that country through our ill-advised invasion. And then in Afghanistan, I found an unwinnable war that was probably more similar to Vietnam than the Iraq War was, in the sense that it turned out that all the Afghans were not Americans secretly waiting to jump out of their skins. They didn’t want the American version of government, and they did not see us as legitimate. "

"What I really saw was the results of American messianism in the world, of American exceptionalism, the notion that we could remake societies in our own image. What it really meant was a whole lot of dead children, a whole lot of car bombs, a whole lot of teenagers shooting each other in the night. And then of course, a whole lot of Americans getting killed as well, although less of us than the Iraqis. When I went to Afghanistan three years later, I no longer had any faith in the wars; I was just a professional. "

"what I found there was slightly different from Iraq. It wasn’t so much a civil war as it was a mass insurgency that we were never going to break. And it turns out, we only held the ground we stood on, which probably sounds very familiar to Mr. Kovic. "

Kovic: " I and other veterans who opposed that war [Vietnam] during that time, in the late sixties and early seventies, we knew that every day was important in trying to save lives. We were here back at home, we had come back from the war, but we knew how important it was that we protest that war, do everything possible to speak out until our voices were raw, against that war. And I remember, you know, sitting behind bars; I hated it, I didn’t like—I was already in a wheelchair for the rest of my life, and here I was inside of a jail cell. It wasn’t fun. But all I could think of was, whatever it takes, you know, to stop this war. I had been inspired while in the hospital by Martin Luther King and others. And I knew that that war that I had fought in and sacrificed in was wrong, and we had to do everything possible, and it was hurting my country deeply as well."

Sjursen: " When I was put in front of those cadets and asked to teach American history in the normal patriotic lens, I couldn’t do it. And I think that was the breaking point. And at that point, I decided to do what Ron Kovic decided to do, which is to speak out every day to try to minimize the number of Americans that die in these wars. And that’s where I’m at now, and I wish it would have happened sooner for me, but I can’t go back and change that. All I can do now is bring a new version of patriotism, and that is dissent against meaningless, harmful wars."

The whole article is very, very worth reading:

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-great-con-of-american-patriotism/

sidd

17
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 07, 2019, 08:15:57 AM »
Consequences of cold snap in midwest: different take

One measurement of severity? no, that's not the word ... cold ? no ... that's not it .... freeze ? no ... hard freeze ? getting closer ...

--
    22% in Minnesota
    12% in Wisconsin
    9% in Illinois and Indiana
    7% in Iowa
    6% in Ohio, North Dakota, and Nebraska
    2% in South Dakota and Missouri

The only state that didn't see a jump was Michigan, ...
--

those Michigan folk are weird.

Nyhoo, the words after Michigan are "where porn viewing was DOWN 2%."

http://97x.com/pornhub-traffic-spiked-in-midwest-during-polar-vortex/

sidd

18
Did I say this was a walk in the park ? Not any more, now we got an emergency:

https://fox59.com/2019/01/30/its-so-cold-in-the-parts-of-the-midwest-they-cant-deliver-beer/

sidd

19
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: January 30, 2019, 11:12:30 PM »
Big hole under Thwaites: melt rate much higher than models find

Apparently CDW induced melt is much faster in cavities when bed slope is prograde than retrograde.

"The newly formed cavity at B is thin, however, which does not favor warm CDW intrusion from geostrophic flow and efficient vertical mixing (19, 24) and explains the low ice shelf melt rates. In contrast, the prograde bed at A favors an efficient opening of a new ice shelf cavity, stronger CDW intrusion, and efficient mixing, with melt rates 20 times higher than those at B. "


"Ice shelf melt at A exceeds values used in numerical ice sheet/ocean models by factors of 2 to 3"

open access, read the whole thing: DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau3433

sidd

20
A citation for "Team Schmidt" stating anything about ice sheet collapse sans MICI would be nice ...? I find nothing in Dr. Schmidt's statements about this. IN fact, Bassis, Deconto and Pollard published after the deadline for the last IPCC report, so blaming IPCC for not including those results violates causality. If the next IPCC report ignores them, you might have a point. As for your suggestion that IPCC produce yearly reports, have you any idea what it takes to produce one of the AR reports ? Much longer than a year. If all scientists did was lit revieww and reports they would do nothing else.

Further, who is on "Team Schmidt" in the first place ?

I find characterizing people as members of "Teams" is unproductive.

As for my feeling about MICI : ofcourse it is happening, look at Jacobshawn. And I cannot say for sure, but Mercer's famous warning about the midsummer 0C isotherm applies not just to ice shelves, but to grounded ice also. But for now in Antarctica CDW incursion and bottom melt is far more important.

sidd


 

21
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: January 23, 2019, 07:53:30 AM »
The difficulty is that if aerosols were twice as  effective at cooling than previously thought, then the models must have been wrong in the other direction on efficacy of warming agents in matching historical data ...

sidd

22
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: January 22, 2019, 10:24:14 PM »
N. American glacier mass waste increases fourfold in ten years:

"We observe a fourfold increase in mass loss rates between 2000–2009 [ 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt yr 1 ] and 2009–2018 [ 12.3 ± 4.6 Gt yr 1 ]"

Thats a doubling period of about 9 yr.

Caveats:

"Our estimated rate of WNA mass change for the early period ( 2.9 ± 3.1 Gt/yr ) is considerably less negative than the rate ( 14 ± 3 Gt/yr) previously reported for the period 2003–2009 (Gardner et al., 2013)."

"Using available SMB measurements for 14 glaciers in WNA (supporting information S1), we calculate an average mass change of 874 ± 100 kg m^2/yr over the period 2000–2017. When multiplied by the total glacierized area of WNA, this value yields an annual mass loss of 13.6 ± 4.3 Gt/yr , close to the value (14 ± 3 Gt/yr ) calculated by Gardner et al. (2013) using a similar approach. These values are twice as large as those based on our trend analysis. This discrepancy suggests that glaciers chosen for long-term monitoring programs are losing mass more rapidly than the region as a whole."

Open access, read all about it: Menunos et al doi:10.1029/2018GL080942  . Pelto is an author as might be suspected.

sidd


23
The Bevis paper is interesting. They use GIA as well as a bunch of other observations to estimate GIS mass waste. One  takeaway is that in the twentieth century, atmosphere had not warmed enuf for NAO variation to induce mass waste events thru increased SMB. But this century it is.

"Since 2000, the NAO has worked in concert with global warming to trigger major increases in summertime runoff. Before 2000, the air was too cool for the NAO to do the same. In a decade or two, global warming will be able to drive 2012 levels of runoff with little or no assistance from the NAO. In the shorter term, we can infer that the next time NAO turns strongly negative, SMB will trend strongly negative over west and especially southwest Greenland ..."


They also point out several interesting things. The pause after 2012 was due to NAO :

"Van Angelen et al. (13) concluded that if the sNAO switched back to positive values after 2012, then surface mass balance (SMB) might partially recover. Indeed, not only did the June to August (JJA) and June to September (JJAS) NAO indices turn positive in 2013, but the change in each of these sNAO indices from 2012 to 2013 was the single biggest interannual change recorded since 1950 (Fig. 1 F and G and SI Appendix, Fig. S7). Furthermore, when the sNAO index again turned strongly negative in 2015, significant ice loss was reestablished (Fig. 1 B and E), and the Pause had ended."

Another point they make is that glacier discharge is governed by shallow marine warmth:

"future warming of the shallow ocean is expected to have its largest impact, via DMB (33, 34), in southeast and northwest Greenland"

But the last is not the focus of the paper.

Open access, read all about it:

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1806562116

sidd

24
That Wolf paper has very little to do with present day earth, it has to do with mostly hypothetical climates, and hot ones at that. They use present day continents, fainter and brighter suns and they vary CO2 levels.

But

1) permanent land glaciers over Antarctica and Greenland have been replaced with bare soil

2) thermodynamic slab ocean model of 50‐m depth

3) We assume a 1‐bar N2 background ... we have ignored the formation of stratospheric ozone and the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere.

I attach Fig 1 and 6

To the question of a cloud albedo transitions:

"Similarly, here we find that the global mean cloud albedo varies in proportion with the solar insolation at all values of Ts (Figure 6b), and across a range of insolations. Under all solar constants cloud feedbacks have a destabilizing effect on climate for 280 ≤ Ts ≤ 330 K. That is, warming climate leads to reductions in the cloud albedo, thus constituting a positive climate feedback and leading to further warming. The sharp transition between temperate and moist greenhouse climate states centered at Ts ~320 K is associated with the minima in cloud albedo (Figure 6b), and is caused by the convective stabilization of warm atmospheres and subsequent dissipation of low‐lying clouds as reported in Wolf and Toon (2015)."

I dont really believe the accuracy of their cloud model. First off, their grid is 4x5 degrees in a modified CESM model, so they rely on parametrization for cloud effects. Their ocean is laughably simple. They have no biology. But as Box said, "all models are wrong but some are useful" This one is not very useful to me, i prefer Hansen and the Russel model he uses for simple, quick looks at the rape of things to come.

But, as always, thats just me, your mileage may vary
.
sidd



25
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 18, 2019, 10:06:09 AM »
I think those ponds have formed in years past, they are meltwater possibly from foehn winds.

Amery is one i watch closely. The thing is a dagger pointed into the heart of Antarctica. The danger is in the bed. The ice behind it has concave profile in elevation view as i have posted before, which has significance.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,263.msg40975.html#msg40975

Amery disturbs me. When that shelf breaks up ...

sidd

26
Consequences / Re: 2019 World Economic Forum: Global Risk Report
« on: January 18, 2019, 06:52:34 AM »
Re: USGov not to send delegation to Davos

O no! World's foremost oligarchy refuses to participate in world conference of oligarchs !

sidd

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 16, 2019, 09:30:22 PM »
Peakers, storage and batteries: duration matters

"I can beat a gas peaker anywhere in the country today with a solar-plus-storage power plant,"

" Hohenstein advocated a "duration portfolio" approach that uses energy storage to shave peak load. "

"When solar penetration is lower than about 11%, the potential of four-hour storage is lower than it would be with zero solar deployment because solar penetration of 11% or less flattens the load curve. Above 11% penetration, however, NREL found that solar power creates a "peakier" load curve that increases the potential of four-hour storage."

"the cost of energy storage is highly dependent on the number of hours of duration needed."

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/unlayering-peak-demand-could-accelerate-energy-storage-adoption/546098/

sidd

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:35:01 AM »
On another thread Neven stated:

"I would kindly ask you to go find some other place to do your thing. I think it would be better for you, and it would definitely be a lot better for me, because it's wearing me out and I don't want to quit this project just yet.

Facebook, Google, YouTube, Twitter, the mainstream media, Corporate Leftists around the world, and even rehabilitated neocons, they're all with you to make things reality."

Whereupon some pearl clutching ensued, I gather, tho i missed most of it being sheltered by killfile.

Please guys and gals and those of other genders:

This is Neven's house. He has stated repeatedly that evidence based argument on the science threads are open to all, and he has acted in accordance. He has also repeatedly stated that he will moderate social/political threads, and he has done so. Apparently that annoys some who imagine this forum is their pulpit.

It is not. Start you own blog if you wanna post without moderation. Or find a forum on goofacetwit more to your taste. Stop bitching at Neven.

That's like going into a party and repeatedly pissing on the carpet after your host has asked you multiple times to quit, and then screaming at him for not letting you continue.

sidd

29
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 01:57:04 AM »
Re: Batteries may eventually prove to be a part of the solution, but at the moment they drain ~20% of what electricity is fed through them.

diesel engine on tractors, on a good day will give you about a third of the energy in the tank at the axle. Not counting pumping, refining,generation,retail chain loss. Call the last about 15%, so you are getting

.33*.85*.15 = .28 efficiency

This turns out to be roughly the same as inefficient coal plant + T&D + battery loss

Battery will give you close to 80% cycle loss. Lets say your electric come from coal. Modern coal plant (the ones remaining precariously in business) work at 45-60% to make electric. T&D electric losses are 5-7%. Electric motors in this HP range (50-100 HP) have minimum NEMA design 95% efficient

worst case

.45*.93*.8*.95 = 0.32 efficiency

But with one difference. You didnt burn that tank of oil. Instead you burnt an equivalent amount of coal at a centralized location.

1) So if that coal plant were 60% efficient or natgas+wind+solar it would reduce the fossil carbon load of every operational tractor feeding off it.

2) Whereas, to reduce fossil load of every diesel tractor in the land, i will have to reduce petrodiesel burn with carbon neutral fuel.

I have done the latter so far. But as electric transport penetration increases i can see the former will give me bigger bang for my buck. The advantage is that i can replace one centralized coal plant with a natgas+wind+solar and make all the tractors (and the electric cars and every appliance on the local grid) cleaner.

Coal plants are goin cheap, they have transmission already. Natgas pipes comin thru in this Trump new world, i see the crews every time i am on the road. I know farmers owning ridgelines throughout northern appalachia and allegheny. And farmers, some Amish, putting in their own solar already. Might be time soon.

sidd

30
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 06, 2019, 01:22:28 AM »
Re: excess cider

make booze. that's what johnny appleseed was all about. all the orchards he planted were unfit for anything except booze.

sidd

31
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: January 05, 2019, 11:36:47 PM »
I got some solutions:

a)eat less meat. For every gram of meat you don't eat you get a multiplier of ten in grains grow. So, eat 5 fewer grams meat, grow 50 grams less grain. And burn less fossil. What's not to like ?

b) Get rid of ethanol and fresh soy to biofuel conversion. That saves you a buncha farmland. Right now a third of all corn in the USA and a third of all fresh soy oil does into biofuel. This is a completely mad thing to do EROEI is around 1, and costs in degradation of land is huge.

sidd

 

32
Shean et al., on PIG basal melt: Joughin and Dutrieux among the authors

"Mean 2008–2015 basal melt rates for the full PIG ice shelf were ~82–93 Gt/yr. Local basal melt rates were ~200–250 m/yr near the grounding line, ~10–30 m/yr over the outer main shelf, and ~0–10 m/yr over the North and South shelves, with notable exception of ~50–100 m/yr near the grounding line of a fast-flowing tributary on the South shelf."

Nice pics, i attach two. Scale on the right  is rate of surface height decrease for the first and bed depth on the second.  That huge hole behind the grounding line (white) says that doom is nigh.
 
open access, read all about it:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-209/

Then we have the glaciers next door: Pope,Smith,Kohler aint doin so good either. Sutterly et al. on those, PIG, and Crosson, Dotson ice shelves, open access:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-186/

And Getz goin fast: Rippin sounding alarm

" ... the vast majority of the ice shelf (where data is available) is undergoing basal thinning at a mean rate of nearly 13m/a, which is several times greater than recent modelling estimates ... t these measurements represent changes that are significantly greater than modelling outputs, it is also clear that we still do not fully understand how ice shelves respond to warming ocean waters."

open access:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-163/

sidd


33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: January 03, 2019, 08:18:38 AM »
Hard rain falling on Greenland:

"Both winter and summer events are associated with a south-southeasterly wind over the central and western parts of the ice sheet ... the southerly component of the winds is enhanced by a large-scale high pressure anomaly southeast of Greenland and a low pressure anomaly to the southwest  ... the southerly winds not only carry heat, but also moisture over the ice sheet, ... "

" ... that in both seasons, approximately half of the rain and melt associated with melt events runs off and the other half refreezes ..."

[Each gram of rain refreezing delivers 80 calories of heat to the ice sheet.]

"In winter, the rainfall also significantly increased ... "

"the observed increases in the occurrence and areal extent of the initiated melting have led to a more frequent replacement of snow by rain and a northward and upslope shift of the boundary between rain/melting and snowfall, thus changing the balance between Greenland’s mass gain and mass loss within a single weather event."

Read all about it. Open access:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-243/https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2018-243/

sidd

34
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: December 21, 2018, 07:47:58 PM »
Amtrak treading water:

" Parts of Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor route, which carries 12 million people each year between Boston and Washington, face “continual inundation.”  "

"Amtrak has since de-emphasized the threat of climate change in its public documents, even scrubbing the phrase entirely from its most recent five-year strategic plan."

"One of the redacted portions of the report is an analysis of the full costs and benefits of protecting the corridor against climate change, making it impossible to know if the company has determined it would save more money by keeping the corridor open than it would have to spend to save it. The disclosure of that information “could possibly cause public confusion,” ... "

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-amtrak-sea-level/

They be screwed.

sidd

35
Science / Re: Fall AGU 2018
« on: December 13, 2018, 08:06:07 AM »
meeting began the 10th, sorry for that misinfo earlier.

Caldeira in the Sagan lecture is ambivalent but slightly optimistic,  sees threats other than climate change, asks if wildly successful species create the conditions for their own destruction, refers to Great Oxygenation Event. He is rather scattered.

The 50 years of ocean drilling thing ends with Maureen Raymo pointing out that we dont really have a good understanding carbon cycle over megayear timescales.

videos online, chekitout in the "on demand" thingie.

sidd

36
Science / Fall AGU 2018
« on: December 12, 2018, 05:23:56 AM »
Meeting begins 12th dec. Streaming video available. Chekitout:

https://fallmeeting.agu.org/2018/

sidd

37
Re: ITCZ

thanks for recalling the pointer to ACME/ESM.

Re: GIS

I think is is becoming clear that melt will overwhelm firn retention and will run to the ocean. Watching melt lakes climb as ELA climbs is disquieting. I see that meltlakes are close to the top of 67N saddle now. What is worse is the huge latent heat the water sheds to ice upon any refreeze. That raises ice temperature and Glen's law exponent kills you with warmer ice speeding out the big tidewater outlets. 79N is still remarkably quiescent in spite of substantial melt lakes over NEGIS.

But perhaps this discussion should move to one of the Greenland threads.

sidd

38
Re: ITCZ, question for abruptSLR

in the ACME modelling efforts, have they fixed the double ITCZ problem that most GCMs have ?

sidd



39
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: December 06, 2018, 10:00:08 PM »
I should note here that there are many examples of excitations which can have momentum in a different direction than (group) velocity. One famous example is rotons in liquid helium. Another is phonons in a crystal. But that takes us rather far afield.

sidd

40
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:28:36 AM »
Re: " If the earth warms how does the radiative balance decrease?"

Let heat coming in from shortwave = Qdot_in, heat going out Qdot_out

right now Qdot_out is less than Qdot_in, 

deltaQdot=Qdot_in - Qdot_out

is greater than zero

a) Qdot_out goes up at T^4

so as earth (actually, top of atmosphere) warms, Qdot_out goes up very quickly and deltaQdot decreases

b)Qdot_out increases as atmospheric CO2 decreases (keeping a bunch of other things the same ...) so again deltaQdot decreases

Re: "Decreasing carbon sinks?"

not considered important over decadal scale

Re: "10 to 20 years to reduce CO2 from 410 ppm to the radiative balance point of 280 ppm? "

No. decadal scale is for peak temperature after emission cease. And then the earth keeps warming for a decade or two, but because of the T^4 factor and CO2 drawdown earth will achieve radiative balance and a peak temperature.. The peak temperature is dictated by cumulative emission. Then temperature will decrease as CO2 leaves the atmosphere.

Earth will remain warmer forawhile until oceanic turnover timescale(1kyr) and continental weathering timescale (10-100Kyr)

I should mention radiative imbalance above preindustrial is about 2.3W/m^2 and because we have already warmed, current imbalance is around 1W/m^2

My guess is that with RCP2.6 we will remain in Eemian for 40Kyr or so ...

sidd

41
The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: November 20, 2018, 05:25:21 AM »
Ferguson interview at Jacobin, primarily on racism and economic influence on Trump support, but he has things to say about the Democratic party:

"The key issue right now is surely what will happen in the Democratic Party. The decisive issue for American life in the coming decades is what to do about the inability of most people to make a decent (“middle-class”) living and enjoy access to public services like education, day care, quality medical care, or secure retirements. Capitalist economies in developed countries are no longer providing these things. Full stop."

"Watching the existing Democratic Party leadership react to the rising talk of democratic socialism is instructive. It is plainly trying to find ways to tap the bourgeoning energy for purposes of increasing electoral turnout, while playing with the movement’s issues like a cat with a ball of yarn."

"The hollowness of a much-touted Democratic reform proposal — that candidates should solemnly pledge to refuse corporate PAC money — is patent. It is a sham, purely and simply. They know very well that big ticket donations from the 1 percent will still roll in, in several forms."

"For Democrats to offer real solutions, the party has to break its dependency on big money. Until it does I expect that turmoil within the party will run rampant. "

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/midterm-elections-corporate-donations-policy

sidd

42
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 13, 2018, 12:50:58 AM »
Now here's an outsider: Ojeda

“The reason why the Democratic Party fell from grace is because they become nothing more than elitist. That was it. Goldman Sachs, that’s who they were. The Democratic Party is supposed to be the party that fights for the working class, and that’s exactly what I do. I will stand with unions wholeheartedly, and that’s the problem: the Democratic Party wants to say that, but their actions do not mirror that.”

"Members of Congress, he proposes, should be required to donate their net wealth above a certain threshold — Ojeda puts it at a million dollars — to discourage using public office for private gain. In return, retired members of Congress would get a pension of $130,000 a year and be able to earn additional income to reach $250,000. Anything above that would be donated."

“When you get into politics, that’s supposed to be a life of service, but that’s not what it’s been. You know, a person goes into politics, they win a seat in Congress or the Senate, and it’s a $174,000 [salary], but yet two years later, they’re worth $30 million, and that’s one of the problems that we have in society today. That’s how come no one trusts — or has very much respect for — politicians,”

Heeheehee. I like him already.

https://theintercept.com/2018/11/11/richard-ojeda-2020-president/

sidd

43
The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:14:01 PM »
Massacre by proxy: "there is an American imprint on every single civilian death inside Yemen."

"We sell them the bombs, we help them with the targeting, we fuel their planes in mid-air, and we give them moral cover ... We also have made no meaningful effort at all to try to find a path to peace."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/05/there-is-an-american-imprint-on-every-single-civilian-death-inside-yemen/

sidd

44
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: November 05, 2018, 09:36:08 PM »
Lapham at lithub on plutocracy and politics in the USA:

"Trump is undoubtedly a menace, but he isn’t a surprise. His smug and self-satisfied face is the face of the way things are and have been in Washington and Wall Street for the last quarter of a century."

"Trump was there to say, and say it plainly, that money is power, and power, ladies and gentlemen, is not self-sacrificing or democratic. The big money cares for nothing other than itself, always has and always will. "

"A fair enough share of his fellow citizens screamed, stamped and voted in agreement because what he was saying they knew to be true, knew it not as precept borrowed from the collected works of V.I. Lenin or Ralph Lauren but from their own downwardly mobile experience on the losing side of a class war waged over the past 40 years by America’s increasingly frightened and selfish rich against its increasingly angry and debtbound poor."

"Trump is president of the United States, and what in 1988 was a weakened but still operational democracy has become a dysfunctional, stupefied plutocracy. "

"The nation’s political discourse meanwhile has dwindled into the staging of election campaigns with candidates prized for the gift of saying nothing. Forbidden the use of words apt to disturb a Gallup poll or offend a bagman, they stand and serve as product placements for concentrated wealth, their quality to be inferred from the cost of their manufacture. "

“The fundamental division of powers in the Constitution of the United States is between voters on the one hand and property owners on the other. The forces of democracy on the one side . . . and the forces of property on the other side.”

"At no moment in its history has the country not been nailed to a cross of gold. "

 “those who own the country ought to govern it.”

"Faith in democracy survived the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in 1963; it didn’t survive the assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King in 1968. "

"The visual order of print sustains a sequence of cause and effect, tells a story with a beginning, middle and end. The speed of light spreads stories that run around in circles, eliminate the dimensions of space and time, construct a world in which nothing follows from anything else. Sequence becomes additive instead of causative, “Graphic Man” replaces “Typographic Man,” and the images of government become a government of images."

"the amassment of wealth and the acquisition of power follows from the naming of things rather than from the making of them. The future is a product to be sold, not a story to be told."

"Advertising is the voice of money talking to money"

"Typographic Man wrote the Constitution and the Gettysburg Address; Graphic Man elects the president of the United States. "

"The comic book hero won the comic book election."

"The excellence of Mark Zuckerberg is the excellence of Donald Trump, product placements of concentrated wealth but also embodiments of the spirit of an age ... "

"What can be said about the big money can also be said about technology: it cares for nothing other than itself, collects and stores the dots but connects them only to other dots ... Siri, Watson and Alexa can access the Library of Congress, but they don’t read the books. "

" ...  if left to its own devices, the Dionysian god in the machine of creatively annihilating capitalism must devour and destroy the earth. Not with malice aforethought, but because it is a machine, and like all machines knows not what else to do."

Read the whole thing:

https://lithub.com/lewis-lapham-of-america-and-the-rise-of-the-stupefied-plutocrat/2/?single=true

sidd

45
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 04, 2018, 04:11:47 AM »
Re:The elimination of CO2e emissions will not stop the continuation of accelerated temperature rises and global heat energy balance.

I was asking for supporting evidence for that statement.

sidd

46
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 23, 2018, 09:58:12 AM »
This time he's really done.



sidd


47
Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 19, 2018, 06:28:35 AM »
Re: "Say that 5% is the result of the CO2 feedback."

Mmm. Glacial-interglacial swing is a lot more than that. But, there are a lot of other things going on, so back to a vanNes type approach, for me, nyhoo.

I think  a lot of the difficulty in is imprecision of definition. We don't have an Earth where CO2 ppm increases by 1%/yr for seventy year. We don't have an Earth where we instantaneously double CO2, hold it there and see what happens in a thousand. So everything is in terms of hypothetical, modelled Earths. TCR, ECS and even ESS are what happens on these modelled Earths.

Meta: not on topic

In a larger view indicators like global mean surface temperature or climate sensitivities are of peripheral interest to me.

Since, here in the sidd Unalmighty world, we subject Gaia to multiple stressors, CO2 being just one. We use around a third of NPP, we hugely increase runoff impermeable surface, we establish monoculture and GMO crop to exclusion of else, we suck underground aquifers dry and mighty rivers, and poison both and kill oceans to boot. And many more stressors will occur to you.
 
Doom looms nigh. The threat that will overtake us first is not direct temperature increase but habitat collapse. Our habitat.

There's probably a thread for that discussion, but it is not here, so i'll shutup.

sidd

48
Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 19, 2018, 01:36:36 AM »
I think one key warning against using T/CO2 regression is the following argument. Lets say i am god and i have an infinite number of planet earths to play with.

I dial up CO2 (i have an infinite number of CO2 cylinders) in the atmosphere while keeping all else constant. Then T will increase.

Next  i take another planet earth and dial up T keeping all else constant (i have an infinite number of heaters) , then CO2 will increase. 

There are a number of objections to this argument, one is that it is not possible even for god to violate the laws of physics, therefore i could not hold all else constant. That is precisely the problem that vanNes addresses, an attempt to disentangle the major feedbacks and feedforwards.

sidd


49
Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 18, 2018, 10:54:51 PM »
Re: problems with using T and CO2 regressions for climate sensitivity

in context of ESS, i commented in

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1053.msg123247.html#msg123247

In addition to the link listed there i add some realclimate discussions which are quite good, even the comments(?!)

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/09/why-correlations-of-co2-and-temperature-over-ice-age-cycles-dont-define-climate-sensitivity/

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/07/climate-sensitivity-estimates-and-corrections/

and there are others posts on realclimate that speak of related matters.

sidd

50
Science / Re: ECS is 2.5
« on: October 18, 2018, 10:15:22 PM »
Re: 50 years is actually a pretty long time, though. 

If this method is taken seriously, then the points at the hi end of the graph would be closest to TCR definition. And indeed we see the slope of the last three points increasing ... but i dont think the noise is small enuf to say so definitively.

But a more important reason to doubt this approach is that not only does CO2 have effect on T, the reverse is also true ... so disentangling the two calls for a more subtle argument, as, say, in vanNes(2015) doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2568

Although i note that vanNes worked with much longer timescales and did not explicitly calculate a climate sensitivity ...

sidd

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