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Messages - Klondike Kat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2019, 10:03:49 PM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2019, 03:50:34 PM »
Down 176K in 3 days, with average gain left 180k & 5 of the last 10 years having less - Does that not sound like 50/50 that the maximum is already in?
On to melting season!  8)

I would say much less than that.  Almost every year has a sea ice peak in February or early March, only to be followed by a maximum weeks later.  This occurred several times in 2016, with the first peak occurring on Feb. 10, only to finally witness the maximum extent on March 24.  Weather, currents, and clouds combine to shift the ice significantly, resulting in fluctuations in the measurements.  Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

3
I think this qualifies as "weird" weather:

The NCEP GFS 0.5deg analysis 2m air temperature has the Northern Hemisphere average temperature dropping to it's lowest in at least 4 years over the coming 7 days.

Not sure that qualifies as weird.  Lowest temperature in at least 4 years does not sound too far from normal.

4
I always understood the total Greenland (or generally any) ice sheet mass change in a year to mainly be a result of the amount snowfall, melt and calving:
mass change = gain from snowfall - loss from melt - loss through calving
Is this correct?

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

The linked page contains a graph that has data until June 2017 and shows an ongoing downward trend in the Greenland total ice sheet mass.

Yes, the mass loss accelerated from 2003 up until 2012.  However, since then it has decelerated dramatically, to the point where it may actually be gained mass.

http://sciencenordic.com/how-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-2018

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

"Exceptional winter snow accumulation and heavy, summer snowfall, drove the net snow input mass to 130 billion tons above the 1981 to 2010 average. This was followed by a near-average melt and runoff period, resulting in a large net mass gain for the ice sheet in 2018 of 150 billion tons. This is the largest net gain from snowfall since 1996, and the highest snowfall since 1972. However, several major glaciers now flow significantly faster than in these earlier years. The net change in mass of the ice sheet overall, including this higher discharge of ice directly into the ocean, is not clear at this point but may be a smaller loss or even a small gain. This is similar to our assessment for 2017, and in sharp contrast to the conditions for the preceding decade."

Do I understand this analysis correctly that this downward trend could have been broken in 2017 and 2018? That would be great news.

Yes, you are understanding correctly.  Whether this is the start of a new trend or just a temporary reprieve remains to be seen.  So, I would not start celebrating soon.

5
Yes, the mass loss accelerated from 2003 up until 2012.  However, since then it has decelerated dramatically, to the point where it may actually be gained mass.

http://sciencenordic.com/how-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-2018

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

"Exceptional winter snow accumulation and heavy, summer snowfall, drove the net snow input mass to 130 billion tons above the 1981 to 2010 average. This was followed by a near-average melt and runoff period, resulting in a large net mass gain for the ice sheet in 2018 of 150 billion tons. This is the largest net gain from snowfall since 1996, and the highest snowfall since 1972. However, several major glaciers now flow significantly faster than in these earlier years. The net change in mass of the ice sheet overall, including this higher discharge of ice directly into the ocean, is not clear at this point but may be a smaller loss or even a small gain. This is similar to our assessment for 2017, and in sharp contrast to the conditions for the preceding decade."

6
The rest / Re: 2019 Predictions
« on: December 28, 2018, 05:58:53 PM »
I predict this will be a rather blasé year, with little excitement or drama.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 14, 2018, 02:42:15 PM »
NSIDC stats for 11-12-18. Currently 2018 is 8th lowest, now surpassing 2017, 2016, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2006. If current trends continue 2018 can "drop" to 11th lowest because 2015, 2013 and 2007 are stalling the next few days.

2018 - 9.559 km2 (8th)
2017 - 9.326 km2 (4th)
2016 - 8.649 km2 (1st)
2015 - 9.650 km2 (stalling next few days)
2014 - 9.827 km2
2013 - 9.575 km2 (stalling next few days)
2012 - 9.002 km2 (2nd)
2011 - 9.458 km2 (5th)
2010 - 9.521 km2 (7th)
2009 - 9.283 km2 (3rd)
2008 - 10.090 km2
2007 - 9.660 km2 (stalling next few days)
2006 - 9.500 km2 (6th)

Ice forming rapidly around edges all over east, west and Hudson with little propensity to slow.

Not sure what to make of this all, but the ice gain over the past month is the second highest in the satellite history, with the gain over the past two weeks being the highest.  Based on current and forecast temperatures I expect this to continue in the short term.

8
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 29, 2018, 05:06:15 PM »
The simple fact is that, with climate change, food insecurity across the planet will grow unrelentingly. Pointing to the effects of a couple of years of global bountiful harvests as a way of arguing that this need not be the case is no different than pointing to the effects of a La Nina as evidence that global warming will not continue.

As we are force marched to our inevitable future where billions will die of starvation and heat stress, it is necessarily so that the weakest and most vulnerable will die first. The sick, the elderly, young children, the poor will go first. This is no different than what happened in the Nazi death camps during WWII. The rest will toil relentlessly until we meet a similar fate.

I think you understood the report backwards.  Pointing to the effects of a couple of years of poor harvests (and social unrest) does not counter the evidence that food insecurity and world hunger has been on a long, steady decline.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« on: October 25, 2018, 02:19:14 PM »
Climate Change Deniers have been rallying around a cooling Greenland.  Greenland did cool during the later half of the 20th century due to a positive NAO, which brought cooler and wetter weather to parts of Greenland.

Quote
Three major melt events during late July and August brought the 2018 Greenland melt season to a close. Overall, conditions on the ice sheet were slightly warmer than average for the second half of the summer.

 Three significant melt events peaked on July 17, July 31, and August 9. While none of these were exceptional, they were among the highest melt extents for those dates in the satellite record, at or above 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles)—roughly a third of the ice sheet. High atmospheric pressure contributed to the melt events on July 31 and August 9. Strong winds from the southeast were linked to the melt events on July 17 and July 31, and from the southwest on August 9. Surface temperatures during the events were generally 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average. Overall, higher-than-average temperatures of 0.5 to 1.2 degrees Celsius (0.9 to 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 mean characterized the second half of summer.
link


As for last year's Arctic report card:

Quote
Surface air temperatures observed on the ice sheet indicated a different pattern than those observed at coastal station, especially during summer 2017. Measurements at twenty coastal weather stations of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) indicate widespread above- or near-average air temperatures for the seasons of autumn 2016 through summer 2017 (relative to the average for the period 1981-2010), with the exception of spring in northeast Greenland. New record highs were set at a number of sites in autumn 2016, with absolute anomalies above +5° C (see Table 1).

This year's Arctic report card comes out in December.

 

I would just like to emphasize that I am not a denier, I think climate change is going to result in widespread + worsening areas of horrible heat, and limited areas of cryospheric crisis (though the balance will, IMO, shift from the former to the latter as we head deeper into CAB BOE). In fact I would assert my outlook is far worse than contemporary consensus on climate change because you are dealing with a simultaneous worsening of BOTH extremes rather than a static shift towards hot, with the increasing gradient between A and B ultimately responsible for the "superstorms" we are now seeing (with breakdown of normal jetstream, oceanic heat distribution to poles is increasingly sporadic and cyclonic -> hence why we see so many Cat 5s now).

bbr,
I do not count you as a denier, and it really irks me that anytime someone presents any scientific evidence that even hints at bucking the establishment gets labelled as such.  Those that do so are not scientists, but activists who cannot see past their own belief system.  Your analysis looks credible.  Keep posting.

10
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: September 20, 2018, 01:37:31 PM »
I find it hard to believe that so many would vote for a crook, just because he is our crook.  At some point, even the most die-hard will throw in the towel.

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