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Messages - D-Penguin

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 01:45:50 AM »
Animation of the annual max and min, from 1979 to present (click to play).
This type of synchronized animation that compares a particular metric with an outcome is visually powerful and instructive.

+1 Brilliant and instructive animation.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 01, 2020, 01:41:33 AM »
Quote from: The Walrus
Peter Wadhams again?  When does he predict the Arctic will be ice-free this time?
Aha The Walrus, I suspect that you forgot for a moment that you're on the ASIF and that you have let us (again) see into your cards.
Your cards don't belong here.


Funny, I thought this was a scientific forum, and one should use scientific "cards."  Apparently, you think that the only "cards" that belong here are those espousing rhetoric, instead of science.

The science no longer represents the actuality of events; it has failed to 'connect the dots' and is too far behind the curve. Informed opinions are now more relevant than the science in the context of policy formulation in preparation for a BOE, the pre-cursor of an ice free Arctic ocean and the global implications that will follow.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 29, 2020, 10:53:32 PM »
Debate is very welcome on this thread but please keep the mosaic project as the subject.

the axib buoy (..97190) is the most westerly.
apologies for the different orientation. I prefer greenland down but am still unable to rotate the land map
I wondered how I came to be posting on this thread then realized it was in response to a point made in a  posting from FOoW.

I do not know how to re-post my postings to a more appropriate thread but the point that you make is clear and fully respected.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 29, 2020, 07:58:48 PM »
If an attempt is made to open a debate on the 2020 Melting Thread and its significance to future events, it is immediately swamped by postings commenting about weather forecasts, images from space and reference to the events of previous years.

Whilst I broadly agree with the points you raise I must also plead guilty to posting "images from space" in the 2020 Melting Season that reference "the events of previous years", not to mention "the ice between Greenland and the pole".
oooooooooooo   0000
What's not to like?
Absolutely nothing wrong. I find most of the comments, graphics and references interesting and informative. I just lament the lack of extended debate about the relativity and connectivity of current event postings to future events.

Perhaps, as an example, more comments about the picture you posted; why, how it relates to the present situation and what next?

I remember the 'old days' on the ASI Blog when a debate (exchange of ideas) on a particular topic might extend over a period of days or even weeks with a number of different contributors. The debate ended with either a consensus view having developed, an agreement to disagree or if the debate became acrimonious Neven would diplomatically end it with a few well chosen words.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 29, 2020, 05:27:39 AM »
The pace and style of old academia, as done by the Polarstern scientists is failing us. By the time they get their results published those results will be out of date. Yes, the basic science has not changed, but the ice conditions have deteriorated over the past 3 years.

We are mostly flying blind on this forum, speculating or measuring insignificant changes to infinitesimally diminishing significance.

I plead guilty to speculating about what's happening below the ice between Greenland and the pole. The key factor was probably the unprecedented clear weather and direct sunlight, but we need buoys down there recording what's happening and we need real time analysis by knowledgeable scientists like A-Team. I agree with him about the deployment of surface and below surface instruments. Satellite measurements have limited capabilities as we can see with our own eyes from the photos at the pole.

The Arctic is melting rapidly while the traditional scientists play their old academic games. And the atmospheric circulation is shifting all the way up to the upper stratosphere while they dither over which ice floe to moor on. (The rapid jump in the QBO this summer is very unsettling.)
https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html

Thanks A-Team for your analysis.

"By the time they get their results published those results will be out of date"

So very, very true!!!

In my more recent postings I have directly stated or inferred that the quantitative analysis of the science is inadequate; that scientists and policy makers are failing to relate to the reality and provide the required leadership.

"We are mostly flying blind on this forum"

Again, so very, very true!!!

There is much 'belly button gazing' going on. There is not much by way of idea exchanges. If an attempt is made to open a debate on the 2020 Melting Thread and its significance to future events, it is immediately swamped by postings commenting about weather forecasts, images from space and reference to the events of previous years; the comments are of interest but limited 'use'. Are we just posting to move up to the next grade of membership or gain 'I like' points?

Surely, the purpose of this forum and indeed the science is to 'inform' but this now requires a new perspective based on qualitative assessment of the reality but relative to the basic science. We now have to believe what we can literally SEE is happening, not blindly rely on imprecise satellite information and projections based on historical data.

We need to present reasoned opinions about when the Arctic ocean will become ice free and think creatively to stimulate new avenues of exploring events. Or do we passively report and comment on current events? Do we agree with the latest science indicating that we could see an Arctic ocean free of summer ice by 2035? Is it possible for the Arctic ocean to be ice free in summer and winter by 2035? Will the progress to ice free events be transitional or abrupt? Will Atlantification prevent ice from reforming after a consecutive summer/winter BOE? Are we not now at the time when informed opinion is of greater value than the science to inform policy makers?

IMO we have run out of time for the science; science is still trying to catch up explaining the history of events.

As I have said before, the science will still be projecting  that the Arctic will be free of ice 10 years after the event at worse or confirming the Arctic is ice free on the date of the event at best. We do not need the science for either of these two 'scientific' outcomes.

Not sure to which thread this rant should be posted.

+1 just for telling it as it is

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 28, 2020, 11:10:15 PM »
The US energy storage capacity could grow to 100 GW by 2030.  There is currently only 500 MW installed with projects underway to increase that to just over 1 GW.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-US-Energy-Storage-Boom-Is-About-To-Begin.html

Quote
The U.S. Energy Storage Boom Is About To Begin
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 27, 2020


The rise of renewable energy sources and the decarbonization of the grid will need new energy storage installations in the coming years to provide flexible energy and capacity. Alongside rising shares of solar and wind power in the electricity mix, the U.S. is set to see increased energy storage installation as storage is critical to ensuring more solar and wind power generation.

America has the potential to see 100 gigawatts (GW) of new energy storage deployed by 2030, the U.S. Energy Storage Association (ESA) said in a new white paper this month.

That is an ambitious target, considering that in its previous estimate from 2017, ESA projected 35 GW of energy storage – including batteries, thermal, mechanical, and pumped storage hydro – installed by 2025.

Quote
The most recent U.S. Energy Storage Monitor from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and the ESA shows that a total of 523 MW of energy storage was deployed in the United States. This year, the storage deployment is set to double to nearly 1.2 GW, despite the coronavirus crisis that has changed and challenged energy markets and company plans. In 2025, energy storage deployment is set to reach 7 GW, representing six-fold growth compared to the new storage installations in 2020.

Renewable energy policy should take a holistic view to energy supply.

Just one example:-

Regeneration and landscape enhancement of disused coal mines incorporating a pumped-hydro energy storage and electricity supply system.

At ground level
- Construct a reservoir water resource for recreation, domestic water supply and feed to pumped-hydro electricity generating station.
- High quality soft landscaping to complete the project at ground level
Below ground level
- Utilize existing vertical access shafts for conduits to carry charging and disharging water supply
- Utilize existing tunnels to locate reversible pumps and turbines
- Utilize existing tunnels and chambers for water storage
- Utilise existing tunnels for cable distribution to local, regional or nation network location

At least if there is a leak that leads to the water-table level the contaminant is only water and not radioactive nuclear waste!

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 28, 2020, 04:42:34 PM »
You might like to read about Dinorwig pumped storage in North Wales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

Impressive

Yes - But not quite so impressive as China with 22 Sites in operation and an additional 32 sites at completion or near completion stage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 06:43:44 PM »

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

With respect, I challenge the idea, at this stage in the 2020 melt season, that stats are great and that patterns matter.

The stats are not representing an accurate picture and patterns only matter up to the point of a paradigm change in a sequence of events. I suggest that 2020 represents that paradigm change.

Thanks for repeating what I said.

;-)

(That post was pithy. I have made greater explanations previously. The idea is more general: Trends and patterns matter, too.)
Thanks for your response.

The point of my posting was that the progressive event and the singularity event of a change of state, in this case of the Arctic ice in 2020, would not relate to the same metrics; that the singularity event could not be predicted by any known parameters currently within our knowledge base. Of course, it could be argued that 2020 does not represent 'a change of state'; IMO this would be a constructive and informative debate.

I suggest that the direction of the argument in my posting was somewhat different to the points you raised and therefore not a  repetition. However, perhaps we might have to agree to disagree on that matter. :)

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 06:21:52 PM »
Updated version (improved colour scheme) of the comparison between the extent and concentration changes for the first 3 weeks of August.
Yep - I think you have got it spot on this time! A great comparative tool.

+1 for persistence and hard work to improve what was already a useful visual presentation of the data

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 04:45:25 AM »

I just think the use of terms like paradigm shift are injudicious as they can be turned into meaningless arguments to discredit or obfuscate the undeniable science.
I just think the use of terms like paradigm shift are injudicious as they can be turned into meaningless arguments to discredit or obfuscate the undeniable science.
I fully understand the concerns that you express concerning the terminology.

However, the current quality of the ice is now of a different order albeit that the quantity metrics may not be so; herein is the problem related to the science. The science in the observation of events that provides the data for the different metrics by way of the available technology and the interpretation of that data is not sufficiently sensitive to represent the actuality of events. Hence, we see the scientific modelling based on the historical data constantly being revised in the peer reviewed papers towards a closer match to the qualitative reality that we observe.

To the best of my knowledge, there is no scientific data that quantifies and explains the heat energy gain in the Arctic system and dispersion of ice 'observed' in 2020, hence the use of the term 'paradigm shift'. Is the qualitative evidence less valid than the quantitative evidence (the science)?

IMO there will be no rebound from 2020 as was the case with previously recorded minima, hence again the use of the term 'paradigm shift'.

To me a change in the state of a system is a 'paradigm shift'.

Do we simply wait for the science to tell us that the Arctic ocean is now ice free?

What happens if the BOE is a singular event and not part of a progression of events? In such a scenario, waiting for the science to confirm the event, would bring relevance of the science in to question and 'too late was the cry' would be entirely justified.

We have to get beyond the data of 2020 IF we are to adequately prepare for the future
PS With apologizes to oren for linking the 2020 melt season to the future.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 10:39:13 PM »
First 3 weeks of August.

I agree with grixm regarding the contrast between cyan and green. I am happy with WHITE Land Mass, GREY Sea and RED Ice Loss.

Never-the-less, side by side synchronized graph and visual - it just keeps getting better! What a technique this would be for a comparative of all of the metrics.
+1

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 08:19:56 PM »

20th. That's some fairly specific prognostication. Stats are great, but they are not the only thing to consider. Patterns matter.

With respect, I challenge the idea, at this stage in the 2020 melt season, that stats are great and that patterns matter.

The stats are not representing an accurate picture and patterns only matter up to the point of a paradigm change in a sequence of events. I suggest that 2020 represents that paradigm change.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 07:30:27 PM »

Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.
Usually I am read only here. However, this one rises a question. Looking at the avg. thickness, would it be possible to see a stall or even drop in extend/area in early November with increased bottom melt?
A very important observation!
IMHO
The major metrics that are currently referenced during this stage of the 2020 melt season VOLUME. AREA and EXTENT may serve little useful purpose; the exceptions are compaction, weather and observations.

In particular, wrt the posting by Bremer, the presumption that the BOE will be a September minima must be challenged. Indeed, October or even November must now be given serious consideration and should this prove to be the actuality the implications for both summer and winter sea ice will be very significant.

+1 for thinking outside of the box

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 15, 2020, 04:21:19 AM »
New record?

Some folks have been wondering about the extent numbers slowdown, and scratching their heads over it.
<snip>
From the NASA age of ice map recently posted here, I would infer a recovery, if anything, of surviving 4+ year old ice. But nothing dramatic to observe an ice regime back to pre 2007, or unknown chart territory of any sort, anyway. A really warm season, that is. The CAB ice, compacted and uniform, will do a nice basis of two year ice and beyond in the coming years.
gandul, your choice of supporting evidence for this assertion looks perilously close to being cherry picked.

Compared to other data sources, it also looks counter-factual.

Consider:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/20200813_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png

And:

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif

(note: - the HYCOM link is transient, and in the future, to reference the specific date you'd need to go through their archive)

Any talk of recovery sounds to me like whistling in the dark.  You need to marshal a lot more concrete evidence.
My point is that I don’t see any abrupt transition to a different regime this season, all that I see is increasingly warmer seasons, period. The ice age map does not really reveal a drastic deterioration of ice in terms of years alive wrt 2012.
With respect, I suggest that you are seeing the wrong metrics to conclude that there is not "any abrupt transition to a different regime this season" (Quote - Gandul).

The available quantitative systems that we reference to determine the status of the ice is now beyond the ability of such systems to represent a reasonably accurate overview. Comparison of the usual metrics for Arctic ice in 2020 with previous years is not comparing like-with-like.

It is the degree of 'fragmentation' of the ice in 2020 and metrics this produces that degrades the quality of the quantitative comparisons and this includes the comparison with 2012. We now have to rely on the qualitative 'analysis' of the available photographic evidence. The Arctic ice has entered a new phase and it has been abrupt.

What is now happening in the Arctic is a phase of "increasingly warmer seasons" (Quote - Gandul). However, the Heat Balance in the Arctic system is now at a 'tipping point' and 2020 exemplifies a new phase in the context of the combination of degraded ice and extended insolation.

Furthermore, what is happening to the Arctic sea ice is mirrored by what is happening to the Arctic land ice, in particular, the Greenland ice cap.

None of the above response can be proven; science cannot 'prove' a future event, it can only provide projections based on historical facts and the existing projections are far behind the curve of the reality. The science will record the 'tipping point' as a singular event in a 'trend' and only retrospectively as a change of regime. Too late was the cry!

The complete loss of the Arctic sea ice will not be part of a trend or changing regime it will be an abrupt event.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 13, 2020, 04:09:43 PM »
Juan C & Gerontocrat: seems like good odds that melting rate this month could be record low unless it doesn't speed up soon.

2020 has so far lost 0.53 M km². A little more than a third of the month has passed, and the slope of decrease decreases towards the end of the month. A place in the lower part of the ranking list seems possible.

IMHO we have now entered the phase when Heat Energy balance becomes increasingly critical and we can no longer reference previous years as predictors of even the short-term or medium term condition of the Arctic ice. The 'Puff' event will be sudden and happen at any time from 'now' and is likely to surprise many, particularly those who rely on the past trend of events to predict the future demise of the Arctic ice.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 13, 2020, 03:12:59 PM »
Wdmn, the phase change itself needs energy.
Link >> http://hydrogen.physik.uni-wuppertal.de/hyperphysics/hyperphysics/hbase/thermo/phase.html

    Sorry, no facts to add to the question, but here some perspectives for those of us who don't work with ice physics every day. 

   The signal is the qualitative decline in ASI overall and the increasingly dire setup for a knockout punch.
This 'analysis' by Glen https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.msg280814.html#msg280814 should be compulsory reading for all of us Arctic Ice pundits; logical and importantly, very well written.

IMHO it is the reference to the 'energy budget' that is the critical factor; it runs contrary to the Laws of Physics for heat to be accumulating and increasing within a 'closed' system (the Arctic Environment), without the change of state from frozen ice in that system to melted ice.

QUOTE from Glen... "What happens in the real world depends on the chaotic vagaries of the weather."

I have stated in previous postings that, "what happens outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic" and highlighted the importance of the 'degrading' Jet Stream in this context. I suggest that more attention to the status of the Jet Stream could be a useful and important metric for 'predicting' the 'chaotic vagaries of the weather'. I think that a reasonable interpretation of the Jet Stream projections, over the short term (say, + 5 days), could be informative where the North pointing tails of the Jet Stream equate to Heat Gain and South pointing tails equate to Heat Loss.

Links to graphics for today and today +5 Jet Stream:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/13/1800Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=1.69,90.94,304
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/18/0300Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=1.69,90.94,304

Unfortunately there is very little science related to the influence of the Jet Stream and its impact on Energy Balance within the Polar Region.

+1
A concise overview and very well constructed posting

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 07:21:12 AM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

IF you think that this is a good suggestion please use the live Jet Stream feature at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/02/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,847

This is what the graphic of the Jet Stream looks like today on the above link:-

Crazy!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:50:59 AM »
Here's the video (gif was waaaay too big) of the concentration and MODIS data side by side for July. Let me know if there's any suggestions on improving it.

YES. A whole month of weather and its effect on compaction; clear to see the actuality and compare.

Suggestion 1 (if I may be so bold)
- In the posting a side by side graphic would give an immediate visual that the posting is a 'comparative' video
- Would it be possible to just have a side-by-side static image for the posting with a click to open in a seperate window and then click to play? It might save some bandwith for the Forum (I think)
- Could a 'running date' be added to the video sequence?
- Perhaps a weekly posting and a final posting running a full months sequence?

Suggestion 2 (If you tell me to 'get on my bike'...no offence :) )
Could you do a second set of side-by-side comparative videos for the Jet Stream and the weather over the arctic? I just have a gut feeling that the correlation is very strong - then one has the full set of data. How the weather in the Arctic is being formed and how the weather is impacting on the ice. Why not go the full hog and add the ice compaction run for a full-house? It would be a fantastic predictive tool if there is a strong correlation

IF you think that this is a good suggestion please use the live Jet Stream feature at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/08/02/0000Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,847
I think the video graphics are great on this website, it really gives a sense of what is happening. The key is side-by-side. 2020 would be a great year to record in this manner because of its unique features.

It's a BIG ask but I THINK it could very interesting, instructive and visually exciting to see it all together.

Again +1 for the latest original contribution (whether or not you tell me to 'get on my bike)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:47:29 AM »
A lot changes in a week. A week ago a record year looked very possible but now the slowdown and dispersion have made a top 3 place seem likely. Even the thin ice takes a while to melt and as nights get darker peak melting has passed now.

Still a lot of things happened in the Arctic in 2020 that never happened before so 2030 free of sea ice in Summer is very possible.

Every year the Arctic makes us think it is all going to melt out only to surprise us in another way. Slowdown is well under way now but there will be further big drops bringing final Jaxa extent to just under 4m like 2019 but let's wait and see.


Let me tell you, the spring is loading and soon you'll see around century drops again. Don't jump on every cliff or slow down but try to keep the bigger picture in view.

Absolutely correct. Particularly your reference to the 'bigger picture'.

+1 Not just because I agree with your opinion but because it is so important to see the 'bigger picture'.

Personally I would like to see a better balance in the postings between 'data' and 'opinions' on 'how'  the evolving situations are creating the data. I feel that such an approach would lead to a better understanding of the 'bigger picture'. More debate and a tad less graphs and tables that could form the basis of the debate.

For example, 2020 is exceptional because of the very heightened heat balance in the arctic this year and what has been the primary mechanism for this extraordinary event?

'How' was the 'heat dome' over the Pole created and why did it prevail for such an extended period?

'How' was the latest destructive LP system over the Beaufort created?

Is it conceivable that the final 'melt down' leading to a BOE could be the CAB ice melting away from the inside to the outside rather than a gradually diminishing central ice core?

Until we start finding answers to such questions we will still be making comparisons with previous years' melting seasons after all the ice has gone.

20
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:52:48 PM »
There's a (paywalled) July 29 paper in Nature Climate Change: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7 that might be of interest:

Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change

Abstract

Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming. This Perspective uses observations and climate models to place contemporary Arctic change into the context of past abrupt Greenland warmings. We find that warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming.

So, the question must be WHY do the climate models underestimate this ongoing warming? This failure of the science is significant and critical because the models inform the 'decision makers' regarding strategic decision making and policy formulation. Policy makers WAKE UP!!! IPCC WAKE UP!!! Although the IPCC is probably a lost cause. Scientists, start shouting (loudly).

+1 for bringing this publication to our attention but it is WRONG that it is behind a 'pay wall', it should be being quoted on prime-time newscasts. This is an example of 'science' NOT playing its part IMHO.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 05:17:59 AM »
Agree. We should not read too much into a few days of slowdown in apparent melt.

Just a thought... Is it not more about compaction than slowdown in melt (apparent or actual)?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 08:09:04 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiF!
Another great graphic. Thank you Freegrass.

The CAA looks like it will be very active from 02 Aug!
+1

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 11:13:57 AM »
A side by side animation of the Arctic storm from MODIS worldview (mosaic for the 29th) with sea ice concentration. No concentration data yet for today, hence the blank right panel at the end.

I posted a higher res version on twitter too: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1288395604805267456

(Large file still, click to play)
Thanks for this continuing sequence of the side-by-side animations. That 'arc' of lower concentration stretching right across the CAB seems to be widening, particularly from the CAA. Why would this be happening?

Again, in praise of side by side comparative graphics, eyes are located either side of the nose and not on the forehead and chin.

+1

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:16:47 PM »
Note that now the average forecast of ice in September is even more than in 2019. 4.35 vs 4.28

https://www.arcus.org/files/resize/sio/29668/2019_sio_july_report_fig1_arctic_sorted_extent-700x509.png

I am going with the model produced by the Sanwa Elementary School...based on a wide 'U' profile through September and probably a new record or very near record minimum.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:04:57 PM »

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

The 'blocking highs' usually occur over areas outside of the Arctic. So, I am not sure what the mechanism would be to cause advection, from such a weather system, over the North Pole.

I agree with the thrust of your explanation about the destabilization of the weather.

IMHO the most important element about this change in weather pattern is missing from your explanation. Namely, the behavior of the Jet Stream.

IMO it is the breakdown of the Jet Stream that allows the cold air to spill out of the Arctic to be replaced by the climatic advection into the Arctic that creates the weather and temperature anomalies in the Arctic...What happens outside the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic.

Today's Jet Stream shows no barrier to advection from the Equator to the North Pole...Motorway Access!!!

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream#2020/07/28/0600Z/jetstream/surface/level/overlay=jetstream/orthographic=-6.72,57.59,503

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 01:34:43 PM »
Concentration for the 26th, 27th and both combined.

Again, an excellent graphic for comparative purposes (after the year/date correction) :)

The effect of the LP system after a single day is noticeable and as expected with the 'loose' ice of the Beaufort following the paths of the wind direction.

However, for me, the most interesting feature is the juxtaposition of the LP and Hp systems, a reverse dipole configuration, that is reducing compaction of the ice in the form of an arc across the CAB following the profile of the HP system. Will the CAB divide along the arc of lower concentration? I hope to watch this development with considerable interest.

Please continue to post this interesting and informative comparative graphic.

+1

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 04:01:25 PM »
Side by side of July 26th in 2012 and 2020.

A picture says a thousand words and two pictures say...

The two images side-by-side, in the same format, make comparisons so much easier. It reminds me of the puzzles in childrens' comics 'Spot the Differences' (Do kids still read comics?).

This pictorial comparison summaries much of what have been the subjects of recent postings. The anomalies are all there to be seen; Laptev, Beaufort, N W Passage, land fast ice CAA, north coast of Greenland and of course, the ice thickness.

+1

28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 27, 2020, 03:40:19 PM »
To put matters to rest, nobody called other posters' analysis crazy. The notion was the outcome was crazy, to which I agree wholeheartedly. And indeed with the passing years what used to be crazy is becoming commonplace, and this trend is the really crazy thing.

+1
Absolutely correct, a most appropriate and timely intervention by oren.

All of our Moderators are 'first class' and Neven is to be congratulated on his choice.

IMHO our Moderators are adding considerable value to the ASIF.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:52:30 AM »
... I think I will read posts in future and not write.

Sometimes Friv might be a trifle 'trigger happy' with all those guns he is touting but his postings make interesting and informative reading.

We cannot all be so knowledgeable as Friv and sometimes just feel the need to express our 'opinions', so keep posting  :)

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:33:11 AM »
Its very likely that we will see cyclogenesis over the arctic basin at some point during the last part of July or early August.

Anyways I have ranted to long.

I had not read your posting before I posted mine.

IMO your posting is not a 'rant', it is absolutely relevant to the debate! Your knowledge applied to the current status of the Arctic Polar Vortex would provide the most valuable insight to what might be expected  over discreet periods of time during the melting season. Priceless! Thank you for the intuitive leap based on the science.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:19:25 AM »
RE[ The 2020 Melting Season

As we see more heat accumulate in the Indian Ocean and this is transported northwards, more snows fall in the high Himalayas, dragging down the snow line, and INCREASING the efficiency of the heat transport as we head deeper into the year. Basically, as we see more snow linger in high elevations and low latitudes, the enhanced baroclinic gradient is going to send more and more of the surrounding continental and oceanic heat (ever-more amplified by our ever-rising GHGs) northward into the primary polar cell, ultimately destroying it earlier and earlier each and every year. The other anomalous patches of continental snowfall in North America are having the same impact, IMO, and while the impact shifts regionally year over year it is now seemingly WORSENING as a whole which is becoming a driving contributor to Arctic amplification. "

"What starts outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic."

IMVHO this posting by bbr2315 is the most significant posting made on this excellent Forum and absolutely belongs to this thread. (Oren - I do not agree with your opinion about the 'appropriateness' for the posting by bbr2315 in the 2020 Melting Season thread but thank goodness you decided to exercise your usual sound 'good judgement' and allowed it to stand.)

The succinct explanation provided for the exceptional weather during the current period of the 2020 Melting Season is not about 'snow' but it is about the 'Arctic Polar Vortex', its demise and the response of Arctic ice to the Arctic weather systems so created. 2020 is the first year to demonstrate so clearly that relationship between the Arctic ice and the Arctic Polar Vortex.

I do not see how the current melting season or any future melting season can be adequately discussed without reference to the Arctic Polar Vortex and its effect upon the Arctic weather systems that prevail at the time. How often do postings end 'but...it all depends on the weather'? The question is, what does the weather depend upon?

To misquote Bill Clinton's famous Presidential campaign slogan 'It's all about the Arctic Polar Vortex you dummy!'

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ice affected by the Jet Stream
« on: July 12, 2020, 08:15:06 PM »
IMO it is primarily the Jet Stream that determines the Arctic weather and will shortly lead to the demise of the Arctic sea ice in winter AND summer.

I think so too. The science on the topic is insufficient though, which is a huge bummer. :-/

You are so right about the lack of science on this topic. I have spent many, many hours trying to source peer reviewed work but with very limited success and what I did find was very 'narrow' in objectives and conclusions.

I do not know how long the records go back for the Arctic Polar Vortex but I am sure that a comparative study , even over recent years, with Arctic weather events would produce insightful results and guidance on the future of ice in the Arctic; with this insight will come more accurate predictions related to 'tipping points' and AGW.

The politicians will still be putting forward the idea that policy must be 'guided by the science' and the scientists will still be refining their 'global models' after the event. All too late was the cry!

IMO Climate Models without reference to the effects of the Arctic Polar Vortex are nothing more than a 'spin of the wheel of fortune' and choosing a random number. Science has played its part but that part has been incomplete without deep reference to the 'Jet Stream'. The Politicians reliance on the IPCC is flawed. We are now beyond the science and require the 'intuitive leap' of the creative thinkers to avoid a cataclysmic outcome; a catastrophic outcome is already built into the system.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ice affected by the Jet Stream
« on: July 12, 2020, 01:00:20 AM »
It has always been a surprise to me how little direct reference has been made to this topic in the main discussion threads and the paupacy of comments to this thread. So often commentary, on the condition of the Arctic ice and projections, end with the caveat 'but...it all depends upon the weather'. This begs the question 'what is creating the weather? (in the Arctic).

'What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic' is an expression often read but the analysis of what is happening inside the Arctic, albeit challenging and of great interest, will always be behind the curve when it comes to 'predictions'. 'What happens outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic' is a better starting point to understanding what will happen inside the Arctic. In particular, the status of the Jet Stream and how this affects the weather in the Arctic.

As the Jet stream breaks down over extended periods of time there is nothing to prevent heat flooding into the Arctic region direct from the Tropics. The current 'heat dome' centered over the Pole follows an extended period when the Jet Stream was absent over the Indian sub-continent and Siberia.

IMO it is primarily the Jet Stream that determines the Arctic weather and will shortly lead to the demise of the Arctic sea ice in winter AND summer.

An excellent link to tracking the live and projected status of the Jet Stream can be seen at:-
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream
NOTE The global view is interactive

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 10, 2019, 08:46:53 PM »
QUOTE from Killian on: Today at 10:22:24 AM
"9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 55.65k km sq. for a record Sept. low. (37 days)"

If the date of minimum extent for 2019 is extended by 8 days compared to 2012 because of the additional heat energy in the Arctic system:-

2019 would need an average daily drop of > 45.76k km sq. for a record September low (45 days)

Presumably the soot deposits from current forest fires in the Arctic region will increase to some degree top melting during the period of diminishing insolation until the September equinox adding to side and bottom melt.

Whatever the outcome of the present melting season, the onset of the 2019/20 re-freezing season will be very interesting.

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