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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:49:58 PM »
Tesla (@Tesla) 4/20/19, 8:58 PM
Tesla Autonomy Day is on Mon, April 22nd   

Watch the event livestream @11am PDT [ 18:00 GMT ]:
– Livestream.tesla.com     https://livestream.tesla.com
– ts.la/YouTube      

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1119767408556687361

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 20, 2019, 02:55:18 AM »
The German auto industry very much wants Tesla to fail. Which is in some sense ironic, because Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs.  No longer do they laugh about the small EV start-up from California being a threat!

Quote
Quote
Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 1:59 AM
The German political Party @CSU just quoted a statement, closing "... It can't be [in the sense if "It is unacceptable"] that the German auto industry will lose and Tesla will win."

This shows why there is so much FUD going on in the German media to keep @Tesla down.
https://twitter.com/ludalisl/status/1119118211927007233

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CSU (@CSU) 4/18/19, 1:10 PM
.@ManfredWeber: Beim Klimaschutz sind wir uns einig, dass wir Ambition brauchen. Aber SPD und Grüne riskieren mit ihren überzogenen Forderungen Arbeitsplätze. Es kann nicht sein, dass unsere Autoindustrie verliert und Tesla gewinnt. #BRextra #DeinEuropa

[@ManfredWeber On climate protection, we agree that we need ambition. But the SPD and Greens risk jobs with their excessive demands. It can't be that our auto industry loses and Tesla wins. #BRextra #DeinEuropa]
https://twitter.com/csu/status/1118924794890788865

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Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 2:43 AM
...
Germany was one of the countries Elon looked at for the new Gigafactory. A bias like this doesn't seem very welcoming.
Also, the German car industry shot itself in the foot with Dieselgate. They don't deserve saving if they overslept EVs AND committed fraud .
https://twitter.com/ludalisl/status/1119129328724267010

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: April 18, 2019, 02:36:37 PM »
How Technology Can Pave The Future Of Our Roadways
Quote
By most reports, by 2020 there will be 10 million semi and fully autonomous cars on the road. And according to Stanford Magazine, by 2030, passenger vehicles will drop to 44 million down from 247 million in 2020.

Dr. Andrew Dubner, Business Leader, 3M Connected Roads says that with an anticipated fleet change that could take decades, roads will need to accommodate both human and machine navigated vehicles.

"Existing safety materials on roadways today in the form of lane markings and traffic signs help safely guide drivers through visual cues such as shape, color and retroreflective properties for nighttime driving," said Dubner. "But these same materials can be optimized for machine navigation, as well."

Dubner says that having the right technology on the road surface is critical for the effective and efficient performance of machine vision systems, especially in challenging weather and light conditions such as rain at night.

Many vehicles on the road today are equipped with advanced driver assistance (ADAS) technology, such as lane-keep assist or lane departure warning. In 2016, 5,281,385 cars (30%) had blind spot detection. These safety features use machine vision or cameras to 'see' the roadway, similar to how the human eye sees the road.

Brusaw says that their solar road panels under the third DOT contract were subjected to the same kinds of tests that concrete and asphalt are exposed to such as freeze/thaw cycling, moisture conditioning, shear testing and advanced loading performed at the civil engineering department at Marquette University.

"We’ve always planned for roads to be our final application, but we want to learn our lessons on non-critical installations like walkways or parking lots first," added Brusaw.

Brusaw says he also sees the roads of the future as dynamic charging tools for electric vehicles and possibly becoming the guidance system for autonomous vehicles and make autonomous cars safer. …
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2019/03/29/how-technology-can-pave-the-future-of-our-roadways/?fbclid=IwAR3rmIgN4TcKoC8DQA2SVd25pTVbka4wvtB_GrgsQYt_WVp0VG4HWg2eKzM&r=slt-eml-bck-a2e0&utm_source=sailthru

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 13, 2019, 08:20:39 PM »
The Addressable Market for Utility Energy Storage Could Scale to $800 Billion
Quote
In the future, underutilized electricity generation probably will be replaced by batteries. As shown below, while the average utilization for natural gas plants in the U.S. is roughly 55%, many plants are utilized less than 25% of the time. ARK’s work suggests that replacing all of those plants would be an $83 billion energy storage opportunity in the U.S. and an $800 billion opportunity globally. As shown in the second chart below, 5,000 gigawatt hours of storage capacity would take the place of all of the underutilized facilities – whether natural gas, coal, or liquids powered – around the world. Moreover, if battery costs continue to fall below $150 per kWh the addressable market could scale well beyond $800 billion.
https://ark-invest.com/research/utility-energy-storage

5
This TMC posts examines the effect on the EU Emissions Regs of NEDC changing to WLTP, and what will happen in the next couple of years
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... So, this delta pushes FCA over the edge. Assuming the 10 g/km penalty, FCA ends up at 130 against a target of 124. Assuming some optimizations, they probably can optimize to 5 g/km in the hole. Now they sell around 900k per year in EU, which translates to roughly 95 Euro per g/km times 900k vehicles. That is 95*5*900,000 which is roughly 430 million Euro in fines for 2019.

This market gets pretty tight for everyone in 2019, except for Toyota. That doesn't leave a lot of options for FCA, leaving Tesla in a fairly decent negotiating position. … Interestingly, Tesla only needs about 45K deliveries to pull FCA into compliance. This explains them leaving the pool open, potentially for Ford. Ford probably decided to pass purely for reputational reasons or didn't want to help Tesla.

The real fun starts in 2020 though, where these 0 g/km EVs are pure gold. EU is on track to levy 95*30*15million (95Euro/g * 30 g/km shortfall * 15 million sales) in fines - Or a mindboggling 40 Billion every year. An EV at 0 g/km is worth 9k Euro (95*95) in avoided fines. Tesla could easily sell these credits for a small 10% haircut until it gets to 15-20% market share. And it gets progressively worse for the legacy manufacturers as the limits keep going down. No wonder the likes of LG Chem are playing hardball because next year, the European manufacturers don't have an option to not try building EVs.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3556518/

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: April 09, 2019, 07:52:22 PM »
New Wind and Solar Power Is Cheaper Than Existing Coal in Much of the U.S., Analysis Finds
Coal-fired power plants in the Southeast and Ohio Valley stand out. In all, 74% of coal plants cost more to run than building new wind or solar, analysts found.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25032019/coal-energy-costs-analysis-wind-solar-power-cheaper-ohio-valley-southeast-colorado

7
I refer again to Dr. Dean Dauger’s 2016 study of the major’s ICE assets and how many years it would take to amortize it:

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A. Amortization of illiquid ICE assets

The reason why gas car makers can’t respond is that the attempt exposes themselves to fiscal jeopardy. ... Therefore the gas car makers cannot produce a countering product in any serious numbers. We begin with what dictates the core value of the incumbents: their assets.

GM, Ford, MB, Toyota, and the other incumbents have hundreds of billions of dollars of assets invested in gas car tech in the form of intellectual property, tooling, manufacturing assets, ongoing R&D, and human resources. The incumbents derive the bulk of their income from these assets, by definition of being a car maker. The ratio of the net operating income to the value of the assets is the capitalization rate ("cap rate"), a common benchmark inured into large businesses every time they deal with a credit agency, a bank, or other lenders. In fact the cap rate definition is often turned around: the value of the asset is calculated by dividing the expected cap rate into the net income derived from the asset.    

Current Market Value   =   Net Operating Income / Capitalization Rate

To fully engage in BEVs right away, these gas car automakers would have to write off these billions in assets immediately, which is fiscal suicide. (When I say "fully engage in BEVs" it also means sell zero gas cars, therefore zero income derived from gas-car assets, therefore, by the cap rate definition, those gas-car assets are worth zero.) They would be killed in the stock market and that CEO would be kicked out that quarter. Add that no one gas car maker will go first. That’s the Prisoner’s Dilemma.    

No Value   =   No Income / Cap Rate

Instead these automakers must amortize these gas car assets over 10 if not 20 years, moving only gradually away from deriving income from gas car tech. Unable to "shift ... quickly", the incumbents’ "competitive response" will be lackluster at best and inadequate to close Tesla’s eight-year lead.

Therefore, for the current foreseeable investment timeframe, Tesla Motors, with no assets in gas car tech, can fully engage in BEVs facing very weak BEV competition, giving this young carmaker a very unique advantage and opportunity to disrupt.
...
For comparison, the Germans might produce their first 200+-mile BEV in at least 2019, equivalent to Tesla’s first such BEV in 2007 (the Roadster), so therefore the Germans are at best 12 years behind. If they could catch up, they should have done so already, and gas-car makers are financially unmotivated to make long-range BEVs because it would disrupt the assets that keeps them profitable: their gas-car cash cow.

The incumbents cannot embrace long-range BEV because it would kill their gas-engine cash cow, so they must move at most slowly, providing only short-range BEVs that do not disrupt. Tesla, with no such burden in the gas-engine vertical, has the unique opportunity to disrupt any submarket it chooses.
...
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/different.html#incumbentsshackles
Table of data below, more at the link.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 07, 2019, 02:08:24 PM »
Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
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(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said.

The report did not mention further financial details of the specific amount that Fiat Chrysler has agreed to pay Tesla.

The Italian carmaker formed an open pool with Tesla on Feb. 25, the report added, citing a declaration with the European Commission.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday. Fiat Chrysler did not directly address the amount that it would pay but added it would “optimize the options for compliance that the regulations offer.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: April 06, 2019, 03:20:16 PM »
If you dig into the data, it is hard not to be discouraged.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/coal.html

"World proved coal reserves are currently sufficient to meet 134 years of global production."
 >:(

“The Stone Age did not end because they ran out of stones.”
 ;)

10
Ouch.

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ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/1/19, 12:51 PM
WORST in a DECADE @Daimler

Explains why @WPipperger is  >:(
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1112759453332504577
Chart below: Daimler AG Gross Profit Margin, by Quarter.

Wolfgang Pipperger is the *CFO* of Mercedes-Benz Central Europe!
His Twitter profile (not blue-check verified) includes: “EV skeptic, Tesla short“

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 01, 2019, 04:23:08 AM »
Norway: No other car has had the number of sales the Tesla Model 3 attained in March.  Nothing even close.

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Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 3/31/19, 4:06 PM
Ok. It’s March 31. and 10pm in Norway. I guess registrations is over for this month and quarter
So what happened in March? I will sum up in the comments ;) Hint: Tesla broke almost every record there is to break  :o
https://twitter.com/nasalahe/status/1112446183589535745
1/
This happened in March:
- Top 8 days of registration ever in Norway is in March 2019. All of them are Tesla Model 3.
- Tesla Model 3 is, by far, the most sold car ever in Norway, of any kind, with 5305 cars. Broke Nissan Leafs old record at 2387.
2/
- There was more than twice as much Model 3’s registered in March (5305) as Jaguar I-Pace total registrations ever (2004)!
- Jaguar I-Pace had 442 registrations in March. Model 3 had 551 in ONE day. March 26th!
3/
- Model 3 most sold car in March with 5305. Next on the list is e-Golf with 957!!
- Model 3 most sold car in 2019.
- Model 3 10th most sold EV ever.
- Total Teslas registered was 5818. New record!

—-
Quote
Dag Levkowetz (@zhell666) 3/30/19, 7:00 AM
 In a litle bit more than a month #Tesla M3 has a reached a market share of more than 2.5% of total EVs sold in Norway.
https://twitter.com/zhell666/status/1111946361631637504

12
So who will sell EVs in the future? Only the companies that already have a vertical integration for the supply of resources and batteries or even control their own production.

QED:

Battery bottleneck threatens Audi e-tron production

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Audi is reportedly having problems with the battery supply from the supplier LG Chem for their electric e-tron. Audi is therefore currently only able to produce about half of the originally announced 300 e-tron units per day at its plant in Brussels.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/26/battery-bottleneck-threatens-audis-e-tron-production/

Everyone laughed, and proclaimed, “Cash burn!” over Tesla’s Gigafactory 1.
Not laughing now.

13
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 27, 2019, 08:06:17 PM »
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
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The U.S. Air Force says it needs nearly $5 billion over the next three years to rebuild bases in Florida and Nebraska severely damaged by weather in the past six months.

If it does not receive $1.2 billion of those funds by June for repairs at Tyndall Air Force Base and Offutt Air Force Base, service officials warned they would be forced to cut projects at bases in 18 states and cancel 18,000 pilot training hours.
...
Caught by surprise

The damage to both bases appears to have caught the military by surprise. The Pentagon’s widely criticized climate-impact report for 2019 listed Offutt as a base with climate-related vulnerabilities, but only for drought, and said there was no current or potential risk of recurrent flooding. While the report mentioned Tyndall in its text, the base did not appear in the list of at-risk facilities. ...
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/03/us-air-force-we-need-5-billion-fix-weather-damaged-bases/155863/

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 27, 2019, 04:40:41 PM »
Big oil pumps $1 billion into climate change lobbying, execs laugh about Trump access
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Major oil companies have spent $1 billion on climate lobbying that is “overwhelmingly in conflict” with the Paris Agreement, according to one new report. And another report reveals oil execs laughing about their newfound access within the Trump administration.

While many oil companies have made a public show of their green energy investments, InfluenceMap reports that ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, BP and Total have used more than $1 billion in shareholder funds since the Paris Agreement on “misleading climate-related branding and lobbying.” These efforts are “designed to maintain the social and legal license to operate and expand fossil fuel operations.” ...
https://electrek.co/2019/03/25/big-oil-climate-lobbying/

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: March 26, 2019, 04:37:00 PM »
Harbour Air to convert all its seaplanes to electric for first all-electric airline
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Being billed as the “world’s first all-electric airline,” the partnership will see MagniX convert all of Harbour Air’s more than 30 seaplanes to electric. The planes will be powered by MagniX’s magni500, a 750-horsepower all-electric motor.

Harbour Air operates the largest all-seaplane fleet in North America. It flies 12 routes in the Pacific Northwest in Canada and the U.S., from cities like Seattle, Vancouver, and Victoria and smaller destinations. The company says more than 500,000 passengers fly on its 30,000 commercial flights each year. Founder and CEO of Harbour Air Seaplanes, Greg McDougall, said of the partnership:

“Harbour Air first demonstrated its commitment to sustainability by becoming the first fully carbon-neutral airline in North America in 2007, through the purchase of carbon offsets. Through our commitment to making a positive impact on people’s lives, the communities where we operate and the environment, we are once again pushing the boundaries of aviation by becoming the first aircraft to be powered by electric propulsion. We are excited to bring commercial electric aviation to the Pacific Northwest, turning our seaplanes into ePlanes.”

MagniX CEO Roei Ganzarski said,

“In 2018, 75 percent of worldwide airline flights were 1,000 miles or less in range. With MagniX’s new propulsion systems coupled with emerging battery capabilities, we see tremendous potential for electric aviation to transform this heavily trafficked ‘middle mile’ range. We’re excited to partner with Harbour Air, a forward thinking, like-minded company that is dedicated to bringing environmentally conscious, cost effective air-transport solutions to the West Coast of North America. This partnership will set the standard for the future of commercial aviation operators.” ...
https://electrek.co/2019/03/26/harbour-seaplanes-electric-airline/

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 22, 2019, 07:24:27 PM »
No article, op-ed, tweet or video, BUT this is Tesla glory nonetheless:

A friend of mine in Holland ordered a Tesla Model 3 two weeks ago and just got an email that it would be delivered next week. That's fast!

The Netherlands is a hot market for the Model 3.  And with only its first two weeks of deliveries in February, the Model 3 captured 18.4% of BEV sales in all of Western Europe!

Tesla Model 3 Quickly Rises To #1 In The Netherlands — CleanTechnica EV Sales Report
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/10/tesla-model-3-quickly-rises-to-1-in-the-netherlands-cleantechnica-ev-sales-report/


Tesla Model 3 Easily Outsold All Other EVs In Europe In February 2019
March 22, 2019
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March and April could be epically big.

Tesla is already the top-selling BEV brand in Western Europe (see report for February) and the latest data provided by industry analyst Matthias Schmidt (schmidtmatthias.de) suggest that the Tesla Model 3 is the top-selling model.

In the last month, about 3,724 registrations of the Model 3 were counted, which is several hundred more than in the case of the second top car, the Renault ZOE. Biggest markets for Model 3 were Germany (959) and Norway (791). ...
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-outsells-evs-europe/

17
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: March 18, 2019, 02:35:49 PM »
Watch a cool, 2-minute time-lapse video of the Crew Dragon maintaining position next to, and docking with, the International Space Station as they orbit the earth at over 17,000 miles per hour:
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Cameron Byers (@Cameron_Byers_) 3/17/19, 6:56 PM
Edited a sped-up video of the DM-1 Dragon 2 docking. Really shows how active the guidance software is while at the 20m hold point. @NASASpaceflight @ChrisG_NSF @elonmusk #spacex #nasa
https://twitter.com/cameron_byers_/status/1107415378043375616

———

• Starship Hopper is preparing for first hop tests as soon as next week
• Their special formulation of stainless steel withstands test orbital entry temperature of 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC)
• SpaceX begins building a full Starship prototype

SpaceX’s first orbital Starship begins assembly as steel heat shield passes tests
Quote
Tests like those shown on March 17th by Musk indicate that SpaceX is indeed deep into the process of extensive and often destructive testing, something the company has proven to be exceptionally good at. It’s unclear if the above test of Starship’s hexagonal heat shield tiles – likely made out of a variant of 300-series stainless steel – involved tiles with active or passive cooling, but Musk suggested that the hot-spots created with spin-forming torches reached temperatures as high as 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC. Unlike the ablative heat shields SpaceX is familiar with building and operating through its Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft, a stainless steel heat shield would be expected to almost entirely resist erosion (i.e. ablation) during extremely high-velocity reentries of at least 12-14 km/s (~31,000 mph, Mach 40+).

Meanwhile, Musk also confirmed that SpaceX has decided to skip constructing a replacement nosecone/fairing for Starhopper, a functional Starship prototype that will be used to conduct extremely short hop tests like Falcon 9’s development-era Grasshopper and F9R test articles. Over the last several weeks, SpaceX technicians have been rapidly assembling what was initially assumed to be the replacement fairing Musk had previously suggested would be built. Instead, the duo of stainless steel barrel sections – relying on steel much thinner than the heavy-duty stuff used to build Starhopper – are apparently the beginnings of the first orbital-class Starship prototype, said by Musk to be aiming for flight-readiness as early as June 2019 around two months ago.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-orbital-starship-heat-shield-tests/

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< Do y’all think #SpaceX will attempt some sort of test, With only one raptor [engine] or wait for the other two to arrive. It’s honestly been boggling my mind.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/17/19, 3:37 PM
First (really short) hops with one engine. Suborbital flights with three.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1107365369168056320
< Saw this on Reddit, so the first hops are happening next week? [Image of road closure notice.]
EM: Hopefully. Always many issues integrating engine & stage. First hops will lift off, but only barely.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:11:32 PM »
China: Gigafactory 3 update
Dozens of pile-drivers have been working day and night for weeks to prepare the site for construction.  Now the above-ground construction really gets underway.

The first steel, prefabricated load-bearing column has been erected and duly celebrated.  Visible progress will happen quickly now!
Interesting to note that this phase of Giga3 looks quite like the facility Tesla is building in Lathrop, California….


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Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/16/19, 4:05 PM
Now Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory construction is moving to the next level!
Translation: “Congratulation to Tesla Gigafactory GF3 Shanghai for successfully installing the first steel pillar in phase one” …
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1107009955071029248
Image below.

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Kelvin Yang (@KelvinYang7) 3/16/19, 3:30 PM
Some additional information:
This first column is for General Assembly building. 11.5 meters,10.8 tons.
General Assembly building is 450m x 48m x 15m in size.
https://twitter.com/kelvinyang7/status/1107001259909877761

Giga 3 rendering below is from the Tesla Model Y unveiling on March 14.

19
Another detailed study of lifetime carbon emissions for ICE cars vs. EVs.  Crossover generally occurs within the first year of ownership.  Images below are for a Tesla Model 3 vs. a BMW 330i;  see the link for e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI, and more.  You can input your own country and annual mileage (km).
Sources are listed in the spreadsheet.

Quote
ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 3/11/19, 6:46 AM
So, now here’s the CO2 comparison of owning a #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i in the US:
- lifetime CO2eq emissions split into prod & operation categories
- emissions accumulation chart with break-even point (Model 3 equals CO2 surplus from battery prod after 0.9 years)
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1105057396504711168

And now it’s playtime ;D : Here’s the english & clickable spreadsheet with 4 tabs:
- e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI
- #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i
- Tesla ModelS vs BMW #530i
- 100km of ModelS vs BMW vs Audi
You can play around with the green fields. Enjoy!

Here’s the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b9WkLOjaej7OrPk3ATSxGjYTQxzDoMrA5WuK5K0M-xE/htmlview

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:43:26 PM »
A longer take on Germany’s news from January.

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy
Quote
Germany, one of the world’s biggest consumers of coal, will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years to meet its international commitments in the fight against climate change, a government commission said Saturday.

The announcement marked a significant shift for Europe’s largest country — a nation that had long been a leader on cutting CO2 emissions before turning into a laggard in recent years and badly missing its reduction targets. Coal plants account for 40% of Germany’s electricity, itself a reduction from recent years when coal dominated power production.
...
The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.
...
Included in the recommendations was that the phase-out target be reviewed every three years. Also, the final deadline could be moved forward, if possible, by three years to 2035.

The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.
https://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-germany-coal-power-20190126-story.html

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2019, 08:28:32 PM »
Quote
The loan is due in less than a year, lol. Build a factory from a mud field, bring in equipment, get an auto assembly line operating, make enough cars at enough margin to pay back half a billion, ALL IN LESS THAN A YEAR....

Credit.  Such a wonderful thing.
Quote
Amendment and Restatement of ABL Credit Agreement
 
On March 6, 2019, Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) and its subsidiary Tesla Motors Netherlands B.V. (together with Tesla, the “Borrowers”), entered into the Amendment and Restatement Agreement (the “Amendment and Restatement Agreement”) with Deutsche Bank AG New York Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the lenders and other agents party thereto, pursuant to which the ABL Credit Agreement dated as of June 10, 2015 (as amended and restated, the “ABL Credit Agreement”) was amended and restated in its entirety. Among other things, the Amendment and Restatement Agreement amended the ABL Credit Agreement to increase the revolving commitments by $500.0 million to a total of $2.425 billion, to extend the maturity date from June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023 as to approximately $2.228 billion of the total revolving commitments, to increase the letter of credit subfacility from $200.0 million to $400.0 million, and to amend certain covenants and baskets. As amended, the ABL Credit Agreement also permits the Borrowers, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, to obtain up to $200.0 million of additional revolving commitments and an extension of the remaining commitments maturing on June 10, 2020 to July 1, 2023.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000156459019006788/tsla-8k_20190301.htm

Edit:
These arrangements are yet another nail in the Tesla Bear coffin.  Financial institutions with millions and even billions of dollars at stake have done their due diligence, agree Tesla is set for success, and they are eager to be a part of it.  The bear argument simply does not fit reality.

22
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: February 24, 2019, 02:01:55 PM »
NASA completes certification of SpaceX Dragon Crew capsule; sets March 2 launch date for Demo-1 flight to International Space Station; will provide live coverage and updates.

NASA, SpaceX Demo-1 Briefings, Events and Broadcasts
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-spacex-demo-1-briefings-events-and-broadcasts

NASA TV - SpaceX DM-1 [Pre-] Flight Readiness Review Press Conference - YouTube



——

SpaceX is building a big ship to go to the moon, then Mars in just a few years.  (As Musk has said, you don’t want to live for months in something the size of an SUV. ;) )
To get there, they needed to design and build a new, more powerful rocket engine.  Behold, the Merlin engine.

SpaceX’s Starship engine breaks Russian rocketry record held for two decades
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-engine-breaks-russian-record-extraordinary-test-series/

Elon Musk on Twitter: Raptor just achieved power level needed for Starship & Super Heavy - spacex
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/ao1lz5/elon_musk_on_twitter_raptor_just_achieved_power/

23
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: February 20, 2019, 02:31:50 PM »
More on the extinction of the Bramble Cay melomys.

RIP to the First Mammal Officially Killed by Climate Change
Quote
The extinction of the Bramble Cay melomys was marked by little fanfare. An announcement about its extinction is tucked away in a release issued on Monday by Melissa Price, who serves as Australia’s Minister for the Environment. The release classifies the endangered status of 11 Australian plants and animals, including the Bramble Cay melomys, which was transferred from the “endangered category” to the “extinct category.” It is only mentioned in a reference table at the bottom of the page.

More importantly, despite the fact that climate change has been implicated in the decline, and possible extinction, of the tiny mammal several times in the past, the phrase climate change is completely absent from the release. ...
https://www.inverse.com/article/53411-rip-bramble-cay-melomys-the-first-mammal-killed-by-climate-change

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 19, 2019, 12:28:56 AM »
Not a fraud.  Not a scam.  Generated about $4.5 million in revenue for its owners during the fourth quarter by helping to balance the freaking power grid!

Tesla's big battery in Australia made another $4 million on its way to pay for itself
Quote
The government also participated in the funding and they shouldn’t be disappointed in their investment since a recent report showed that the project saved $40 million on the energy during its first year of operation alone.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-big-battery-pay-for-itself/

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 18, 2019, 04:53:21 PM »
Boom! Fossil Vehicle Sales Are Officially Now Decreasing In China, Europe, & USA — #CleanTechnica Report

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16/fossil-vehicle-sales-are-officially-now-decreasing-in-china-europe-us/

Boom!  8)

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: February 13, 2019, 04:22:20 PM »
The logic of keeping coal plants open is getting weaker and weaker:

Trump intervenes in support of coal plant owned by major donor
Quote
...And why, pray tell, would Trump take time out of his crushingly busy schedule to lobby the Tennessee Valley Authority in support of a single aging coal plant? Because as Politico reported overnight, the president apparently wants to help one of his top supporters, who’s eager to keep the TVA as a customer.

[Trump’s] missive came just days before the TVA board is slated to vote on the future of Paradise Unit 3, a 49-year-old coal plant that the federally owned utility has said would be too expensive to keep operating.

The 1,150-megawatt plant gets the bulk of its coal from a subsidiary of Murray Energy, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Robert Murray, the CEO of the mining company, is a major Trump supporter who has personally lobbied the president to take other actions to help the ailing coal industry, particularly in regions where he sells coal.

Murray is also, the report added, “a prolific GOP donor.” His support included exceedingly generous contributions to a leading pro-Trump super PAC in 2016. ...
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-intervenes-support-coal-plant-owned-major-donor


TVA Tells Trump & McConnell To Take A Hike
Quote
For its part, the TVA assured the Hater in Chief that in fact it had done its due diligence and decided it had chosen the correct course based on business realities rather than ideological niceties. It said it actually had given “serious consideration to all factors” in making its decision. Some 16.9 GW of coal fired capacity were retired in the US last year, according to S&P. The coal industry is dying and there is nothing those two lunatics in Assington can do to stop the decline. That’s a good thing.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/12/tva-tells-trump-mcconnell-to-take-a-hike/

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 12, 2019, 03:58:19 PM »
Admission of shame:
- Currently I'm driving about 10k miles a year for work
- Recently I had to get a new car after an accident
- For budget reasons I went for a small efficient secondhand 1.0L petrol vehicle with a combined MPG of 65 rather than an electric or hybrid. I intend to drive conservatively, liftshare, walk/cycle when possible etc, but still... not ideal.

A big factor in an individual’s EV transition is time. Many people simply can’t wait for the EV they want, because their current car died or they otherwise need a replacement right now.  Price is another reason.  Soon there will be cheaper options, including a more robust used EV market.  Kudos for your effort to be as sustainable as possible!

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 06, 2019, 06:34:26 PM »
Quote
HA!!! MODEL 3 IS DOOOOOOMED!!! TESLA IS DESPARATE! Prices are NEVER EVER EVER reduced on SUCCESSFUL CARS!!!!
https://twitter.com/vuryfurrybur/status/1093168322856681474
Image below.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: February 04, 2019, 05:58:40 PM »
Private investment in charging infrastructure storage lowers the eventual grid upgrades needed.  I would not be surprised if the utilities offered VW an incentive, beyond the expected peak demand cost shaving.

Tesla reaches deal with Electrify America to deploy Powerpacks at over 100 charging stations
Quote
They announced today that they will deploy Tesla Powerpack systems consisting of “a 210 kW battery system with roughly 350 kWh of capacity” at over 100 charging stations. The system will be designed to be modular in order to increase the capacity if needed.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/04/tesla-electrify-america-powerpacks-charging-stations/

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 31, 2019, 02:39:27 PM »
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

Those who disparage Musk for his timeliness should be even more upset with the reliability of doomsayers who have been promising Tesla will go bankrupt “next quarter” for over 10 years now. ;D

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: January 25, 2019, 05:35:33 PM »
”...what Solar Roadways has accomplished over the past, say, 12 years or so. ...

LOL.  Edison spent years finding 1,000 ways to not make a light bulb... before finding one that did.

Solar Roadways new Version 4 panels are scheduled to go into production by the end of this month.  Let’s see how they fare.

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 24, 2019, 01:39:16 PM »
Cracks Appear in Record U.S. Oil Growth as Shale Slows for Now
- Shale output forecast to grow at slowest pace in nine months
- Well productivity in key plays have dipped in the past year
January 23, 2019
Quote
Cracks are emerging in the U.S. oil machine.
Shale oil’s relentless production growth is easing, with growth next month set to be the weakest since May, according to the Energy Information Administration. Increases in the Permian Basin, the largest area, will also be the slowest in nine months.

That would be a boon for OPEC, which is trying to boost crude prices but faces an immense challenge from companies pumping unprecedented amounts of oil in the U.S. Drilling activity in America has also been slowing, with the oil rig count plunging the most in almost three years last week, as the effects of the price slump at the end of 2018 linger. The price crash “hurt many of those companies and now is having consequences for expectations of U.S. shale oil output,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group Inc.

There are other signs of a slowdown. The amount of crude produced by new wells in three of the biggest shale plays has been declining for at least a year.

The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico –- among the fastest-growing shale plays -- will produce 555 barrels a day of crude per rig in February, according to the EIA’s latest drilling report. That’s the same as in January, which was the lowest since August 2017 and compares with a record high 758 barrels a day in 2016. The Bakken and Eagle Ford plays have experienced similar slowdowns.

Shale remains a spectacular success story, and has often beaten pessimistic predictions. It has taken the U.S. close to energy independence -- unthinkable even 15 years ago -- and turned the oil world upside down. Total American output could even exceed Russia and Saudi Arabia combined by 2025, according to consultant Rystad Energy AS.

Still, crude’s steepest fourth-quarter decline since 2014 and pipeline bottlenecks are having an impact. The number of shale wells that are being started but not completed is rising, and will likely continue to increase until oil rises further or infrastructure constraints ease.

Much of whether shale will continue to top forecasts or finally take a breather will ultimately depend on oil prices. Crude’s volatility has unnerved investors, who are “much more cautious now” than they were previously, Occidental Petroleum Corp. Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub said in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday.

“Not as much money is going to be pouring into the Permian basin,” she said. “There’s going to be more discipline around how the Permian reacts to pricing.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-01-24/cracks-appear-in-record-u-s-oil-growth-as-shale-slows-for-now

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 23, 2019, 08:14:05 PM »
German subsidies, European loans:
Quote
As expected, the Tesla Model 3 has been added to the list of electric vehicles eligible for a €4000 subsidy in Germany. twitter.com/BAFA_Bund/stat…
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1087733014942150656
- This is important because people were holding back on ordering until they were sure it was eligible for that subsidy.

"Financial leases"/Car loans are now available in Europe on the Model 3, through Tesla, starting today.
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1088062532701642754
Text image in French at the link.
—-
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/22/19, 11:36 AM
Final thought of my current China trip: Spoke with many ppl in different cities, almost all of them are excited with Tesla GF3 development. Many ppl wanna have a Tesla in the near future, especially the Model 3. Local MSM are very positive about Tesla future.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1087750758152339456

—-
And especially for Lurk ;) :
GLOVIS Symphony has departed San Francisco — headed for China!  Appears to be routed for a port near Hong Kong, with an ETA of 10 February. 
Now that GLOVIS Symphony has cleared the port, Grand Aurora has left her holding pattern out at sea and is headed in to dock in San Francisco, due in a few hours.

34
“What's my response when people say "we're f#cked" when it comes to climate change? Well here it is:
It's not binary. It is not ‘effed’ or ‘not-effed’. It's a matter of ‘how effed’ — that is left for us to determine. The more carbon we burn, the worse it gets." — @MichaelEMann on climate change
https://twitter.com/TheAgenda/status/1085381132714106880
40-second video clip at the link.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: January 23, 2019, 06:28:42 PM »
The world can meet the Paris climate targets at about a quarter of the cost of current subsidies for fossil fuels, according to a new climate study
Quote
The study, entitled Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement, is the culmination of a two-year scientific collaboration with 17 leading scientists at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), two institutes at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and the University of Melbourne’s Climate & Energy College.

It was funded by the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation and released by the scientific publisher Springer Nature. The model produced by the authors, called One Earth, offers a roadmap for surpassing the targets set by the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement,

According to Karl Burkart, Director of Innovation at the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, the One Earth climate model “is groundbreaking in that it shows the 1.5°C can be achieved through a rapid transition to 100% renewables by 2050, alongside land restoration efforts on every continent that increase the resilience of natural ecosystems and help to ensure greater food security.” ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/22/dicaprio-study-achieving-paris-targets-possible-cheap/

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 22, 2019, 04:53:40 PM »
May need to rethink those estimates of China and global growth in the next few years.

Oil drops nearly 2 pct as China slowdown bites
Quote
LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly 2 percent on Tuesday on signs that an economic slowdown in China is spreading, stoking concerns about global growth and fuel demand.  The gloomy news from the world's second-largest economy and top oil importer pulled down financial markets across Asia.

China reported the lowest annual economic growth in nearly 30 years on Monday and its state planner warned on Tuesday that falling factory orders point to a further drop in activity and more job losses.

While China's oil imports have so far defied the economic slowdown, hitting a record above 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2018, many analysts believe that the country has reached peak energy growth, with its thirst set to wane. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-drops-nearly-2-pct-as-china-slowdown-bites-20190122-00324

China’s Government is Worried About Social Breakdown
Quote
The Chinese leader stressed the need to maintain political stability in the face of economic challenges. The warning, which came at an unusual meeting of Chinese leaders, shows the ruling party's anxieties over the social implications of the slowing economy.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/chinas-government-is-worried-about-social-breakdown-cm1084958

Wall Street Futures Trend Lower as Global Growth Seen Slowing, Trade Tensions Rekindled
Quote
Oil futures are moving steadily lower, pressured by news that Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih has pulled out of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will likely not hold talks with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus other producing countries to discuss recent production cuts. Brent crude futures are down 1.53% from Monday's close.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/wall-street-futures-trend-lower-as-global-growth-seen-slowing-trade-tensions-rekindled-ubs-misses-cm1085048

U.S. shale boom set to cool in 2019
Quote
U.S. crude oil production will continue to grow through 2019 and 2020, but at a much slower pace than in 2018, according to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But the agency forecasts growth will slow to just over 1.1 million barrels per day in 2019 and less than 0.8 million bpd in 2020 ("Short-Term Energy Outlook", EIA, Jan. 15).

Growth from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to slow even more sharply from almost 1.6 million bpd in 2018 to 0.95 million bpd in 2019 and 0.5 million bpd in 2020.

Surging U.S. production, mostly from onshore shale plays, contributed to the oversupply which emerged in the oil market during 2018 and the consequent fall in prices during the fourth quarter.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-shale-boom-set-to-cool-in-2019-20190122-00723

Edit: added top link.

37
Pentagon Confirms Climate Change Is A National Security Threat, Contradicting Trump
Quote
More than a year after President Donald Trump nixed climate change from his administration’s list of national security threats, the Pentagon has released an alarming report detailing how dozens of U.S. military bases are already threatened by rising seas, drought and wildfire.
“The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense missions, operational plans, and installations,” states the 22-page document, which was published Thursday.

The congressionally mandated analysis looked at a total of 79 military installations around the country. The Defense Department found that 53 sites are currently vulnerable to repeat flooding. Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, for example, has experienced 14 inches of sea level rise since 1930. Additionally, more than half of the 79 bases are at risk from drought, while nearly half are vulnerable to wildfire. ...
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/defense-department-climate-change-national-security-threat_us_5c420386e4b027c3bbc1713f

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 30, 2018, 06:43:43 PM »
They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

That was a very interesting video, but they didn't discuss two things: the price of batteries, and what Big Auto and Big Oil will do to prolong the status quo as long as possible (for instance, by taking out Tesla).

I’m sure Big Auto and Big Oil would like to take out Tesla, but I think it is too late for that, now.  Their efforts weren’t successful when Tesla was smaller and more vulnerable, and now the EV genie is out of the bottle — people want them, and so do governments of polluted cities, states and countries.

What can BA/BO do besides spread FUD (which hasn’t kept Tesla from reaching record after record), and try to end EV subsidies/tax advantages (which tends to hurt Big Auto as well).  Musk has often said that ending all EV subsidies would be beneficial to Tesla, as it would level the playing field.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m sure they will try.  But the China government and people love Tesla (even Model X - themed weddings are a big thing there these days), and EU countries are jumping over each other to win the next Tesla gigafactory.  New huge utility battery projects are in the works all over the world.  And Tesla roofs are just taking off.  2019 will make it clear the tipping point has already passed, and local signs of oil decline will start to be noticed.  Big Oil will have bigger things than Tesla to worry about.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: December 15, 2018, 02:31:14 PM »
According to the document, a Tesla Megapack consists of long 23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) battery system, which the company mostly installs back to back with another unit.

Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California
Quote
Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh.

That’s more than 12 times the capacity of Powerpack 2 in a package that could potentially fit about 8 Powerpacks.

The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/12/15/tesla-megapack-debut-giant-energy-storage/

Commissioned by PG&E at the Moss Landing substation.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 15, 2018, 12:10:37 AM »
Why Can’t OEMs Dial It Up And Overtake Tesla In The EV Race?
Quote
WHY BIG AUTO JUST CAN’T SQUASH TESLA
In what must be one of the longest headlines in history, Bill MacDonald asks, “Why don’t bigger car companies such as Ford start producing electric cars, eliminating Tesla’s presence in the emerging market, thus claiming said market share for themselves?”

The answer, as MacDonald reveals in a recent article published in Quora, is simple: Because they can’t.
Many have mocked Tesla for “bleeding cash,” although Tesla would probably rather describe what’s been going on as “investing in new products.” As the legacy automakers expand their EV offerings, they will soon be bleeding cash as well, as one after another Big Auto exec has admitted.

Shifting production from ICE vehicles to EVs can’t be done by simply flipping a switch on the assembly line. “New battery and powertrain tech has to be engineered,” MacDonald writes. “Manufacturing for those parts has to be established. Supply chains for new types of raw materials have to be established. Platforms that accommodate efficient EV operation have to be engineered. Branding and marketing strategies have to be figured out. Shipping, sales, and service logistics and training have to be established. And in the end, the product can’t just be any EV. It has to be competitive with a Tesla.”

 
The old-school OEMs can choose to bed down on a rock – build new factories and logistics networks for EVs – or on a hard place – dismantle existing facilities and retool them to produce EVs. Either option is going to require massive new investment. How much? MacDonald figures it will cost “roughly the time and money that Tesla spent, minus some savings for being more efficient about it than Tesla has been. Even if you can do it 30% more efficiently than Tesla has done it, you are still talking about 11 figures [tens of billions].”

If and when the automotive giants do start producing EVs in volume, their woes will be just beginning. The greenie and techie early-adopter buyers have already gone electric, so once the volume market gets rolling, every buyer of an EV will be one less buyer for a dinosaur-burner. That means the automakers will be cannibalizing the ICE business that they are still paying big money to operate. Right now, they’re enjoying huge margins on gas cars, especially trucks and SUVs, but they aren’t able to earn anything like those margins on EVs – indeed they’re lucky to make any profit at all.

MacDonald sees that situation reversing over time. “The minute your EVs become competitive, you will slowly start making less and less money on ICEVs, as the volume drops and economies of scale reverse. The margins on ICE will dry up much faster than the margins on EV will grow. There will be a gap. During this gap, you will still be pouring cash into EV factories and logistics, while your profits have suddenly dried up.”

 
The worst parts of the story for the majors have to do with battery supplies and sales and support logistics. Today, only Tesla and BYD have control over their own battery cell supply chains (although Daimler has taken a step in the right direction with its acquisition of German battery-maker ACCUmotive). In order to secure enough batteries at a competitive price, the legacy brands will have to make massive investments of time as well as money, long before they start seeing much profit from EV sales.

Furthermore, the majors’ business model is based on franchise dealerships, which MacDonald calls “a way of subsidizing the sales and support logistics of making cars, via the heavy cost burden of routine service and non-warranty repair.” But service revenues for EVs are sure to be much lower. As Tesla has shown, they may turn out to be virtually non-existent. How are the automakers going to respond when their dealers lose their most reliable income stream? “If they have a higher cost of routine maintenance than Tesla, their cars will be seen as inferior and people will buy Teslas instead. If they match Tesla’s lack of maintenance [requirements], their sales operations will go out of business and they will have to spend even more money to build a non-franchise sales and service operation just like Tesla had to do.”

In the end, the old guard will end up in the same situation they’ve been knocking Tesla for: “burning cash and being unable to generate profits, staring at a massive chasm of time and money that stands between them and re-established profitability.”

Tesla just barely managed to cross this Valley of Death three times, and the giant automakers, which have access to plenty of capital, should be able to do so as well. But some current trends are ominous. Auto sales are slowly contracting as more people opt not to own vehicles. Trade wars and high tariffs are also hurting, as are the costs of trying to keep up with rising emissions standards in some key auto markets. Some of the smaller and/or less well capitalized brands may disappear.

As MacDonald sums up, the legacy automakers are facing a hard choice: “Keep making ICEs and slowly watch your profits get eaten by Tesla, BYD, Nio, etc, or risk a dangerously expensive crossing through a transition period of cash burn and negative margins.”
https://insideevs.com/oems-cant-overtake-tesla-ev-race/amp/

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: December 11, 2018, 07:21:55 PM »
By the Reno [Nevada] Gazette.

It's big, loud and secretive: We got a tour of Tesla's Gigafactory and here's how it works
https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2018/12/10/reno-sparks-nevada-tesla-gigafactory-factory-model-3-sedan-jobs/2211115002/
With photos and video.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 08, 2018, 10:03:45 PM »
Exclusive: Tesla, smarting from trade war, seeks bids for China Gigafactory construction
Quote
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has opened a tender process to build its Shanghai Gigafactory and at least one contractor has started buying materials, according to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, the clearest indication that construction is imminent.

The details, previously unreported, reveal that state-owned Shanghai Construction Group Co Ltd is taking part in the bidding while a unit of China Minmetals Corp Ltd is preparing materials for the plant's foundations.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-china-exclusive-idUSKBN1O50IY

 
Tesla to start production at Gigafactory 3 within a year, says Shanghai Mayor after Tesla visit
Quote
The Shanghai government issued an official statement today following a meeting with Tesla executives and they said that the automaker should start production, at least partially, at Gigafactory 3 during the second half of 2019.
https://electrek.co/2018/12/06/tesla-start-production-gigafactory-3/

 
Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to begin in second half of 2019: report
Quote
Local media outlet Caijing.com noted that the factory is about to begin construction, particularly since the 864,885-square meter plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone has been leveled. In a post on its official WeChat account, the Shanghai government further indicated that Mayor Ying Yong and Vice Mayor Wu Qing have met with Tesla’s leaders in China while checking the company’s new vehicles like the Model 3. During their visit, the Shanghai officials reportedly encouraged parties involved in the project to expedite the construction of Gigafactory 3 even more. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-gigafactory-3-second-half-2019-local-reports/



EVs, and Teslas in particular, are becoming popular as police vehicles, given their lower cost of fuel and maintenance, and their quietness and quickness. Examples are listed in the first article below.

Tesla Model S becomes sneaky undercover police car
https://electrek.co/2018/12/05/tesla-model-s-undercover-police-car/

Watch a Tesla Model X electric SUV becoming a police vehicle
https://electrek.co/2018/12/02/tesla-model-x-police-vehicle/

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: December 04, 2018, 10:14:45 PM »

In other words, if a block breaks on the patio, the house will not fall down. Applications like reinforced concrete or mix poured from trucks are more complicated with more complex regulation and, thus, for down the road.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/climate/betting-on-a-new-way-to-make-concrete-that-doesnt-pollute.html#click=https://t.co/xuFTnPiBFn

Has anyone ever heard of a house falling down because "a block breaks on the patio"?


This sounds increasingly like another Green Tech scheme to suck up more dollars from well meaning dolts.


In days gone by the pitchmen stayed close to the Big Top as the Circus wended it's way through rural America, relying on the Circus's mobility to protect them from mounting scrutiny. Increasingly they dangle their green tinged baubles in front of the credulous, believing that their evident good intentions will protect them from litigation.


I don't wish them well on their journey
Terry

Terry,
The reasoning is that the new concrete can be used in non-support functions like pavers, to prove that the new process works, while not risking lives as part of a building or bridge!

If the pavers hold up well, more investment will be put into trying different mixtures and tweaking the process, and further testing that eventually allows the process to be used on much larger, load-bearing structures.  If the process works as CO2 storage and is structurally sound, the entire industry could change, thus significantly lowering its carbon emissions.

Pavers, then bricks, is the perfect way to test out what may become an industry technology upheaval.  If the new concrete starts to crumble after a few years, no harm done except to the pocketbooks of a few early adopters.

44
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 04, 2018, 07:42:57 PM »
You don’t need science fiction to build machines that directly affect the weather:

NWS Omaha: "It's been confirmed that this snow band is originating from 2 plants in Norfolk. The steam produced there is essentially acting to add moisture and warmth to the clouds creating the snow. Had reports of large flake and up to 1in. ...”
https://twitter.com/NWSOmaha/status/1069657978683473921
Image below; GIF at the link.

45
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: November 28, 2018, 07:33:46 PM »
This is fascinating, in a volcano/earthquake kind of way. :)
Apparently it was caused by movement of magma, rather than the usual abrupt tectonic shaking.

Strange earthquake waves rippled around Earth, and nobody knows why
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/11/strange-earthquake-waves-rippled-around-world-earth-geology/

46
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 21, 2018, 03:11:47 AM »
Significant rain in the forecast for southern California.  Los Angeles County has readied dozens of sandbag distribution sites for people to prepare for flooding and mud flows from the burn scar area.

LACounty Fire PIO (@LACoFDPIO)
11/20/18, 8:03 PM
#WoolseyFire *INFO* to help residents prepare for the coming rain we’ve put together a comprehensive list of sandbag distribution sites in both #LACounty and #VenturaCounty.
https://twitter.com/lacofdpio/status/1065047928622858240
Text image at the link.

NWS QPF image below.

Edit: here’s the NWS warning:
NWS (@NWS) 11/20/18, 7:49 PM
Multiple rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow are forecast for the West from Wednesday through #Thanksgiving into Friday. There is an elevated concern for flash flooding, mudslides and debris flows near wildfire burn scars in #California. See weather.gov for more.
https://twitter.com/nws/status/1065044372301983744
Precip maps at the link.

47
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 19, 2018, 08:41:58 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”
https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/status/1064515779272601600


“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable
http://theglaciertrust.org/blog/2018/11/19/insuring-the-uninsurable

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: November 18, 2018, 06:41:32 PM »
Big Vegan Business

Bill Gates-Backed Vegan Burger Maker Beyond Meat Files for IPO
Quote
Beyond Meat Inc., the maker of vegan chicken and beef substitutes including the Beyond Burger, filed for a U.S. initial public offering.

The company filed with an initial offering size of $100 million, which is a placeholder that’s likely to change. The company’s backers include Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates and Don Thompson, McDonald’s Corp.’s former chief executive officer.

Beyond Meat, based in El Segundo, California, was founded in 2009 and initially focused on a frozen-chicken substitute and has taken advantage of vegan diet preferences to go more mainstream. Now, it’s best known for the Beyond Burger, which is made to “look, cook and taste like traditional ground beef,” according to the company’s filing Friday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Its products are sold by grocers such as Kroger and Whole Foods, as well as appearing on restaurant menus for TGI Friday’s and A&W Canada, the company said in its filing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-17/bill-gates-backed-vegan-burger-maker-beyond-meat-files-for-ipo

49
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 18, 2018, 04:12:37 PM »
Evacuation plan 'out the window' when fire hit California town
Quote
When a “megafire” engulfed Paradise, California, officials and residents had to abandon their evacuation plans and improvise new ways to save lives, learning lessons that could help the growing number of U.S. communities at risk to wildfires. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-wildfires-evacuation/evacuation-plan-out-the-window-when-fire-hit-california-town-idUSKCN1NM0G5

Southern California:
Why California Authorities Are Sharing This Terrifying Video of a Woman Escaping a Wildfire
http://time.com/5454126/la-sheriffs-shares-video-malibu-fire-escape/

California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire
Quote
Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-wildfires/california-searches-for-1000-missing-in-its-deadliest-fire-idUSKCN1NL1CH

50
U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Joins Environmental Activists in Protest at Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s Office
Quote
The proposed committee would, among other things, establish a 10-year plan to transition the U.S. economy to become carbon neutral, according to draft legislation that the activists presented to Pelosi’s office. The activists are also pushing Democratic leaders to reject campaign contributions from fossil fuel industry groups. “We need every person who is going to claim the mantle of Democratic leadership to take the no fossil fuel money pledge,” Prakash said at the sit-in outside Pelosi’s office.

Ocasio-Cortez’s decision to join the protesters and march on her own House leader sets a tone of urgency and combativeness that is rare on Capitol Hill. Walking into the Cannon House Office Building, she told The Intercept something new had to be tried. “The way things are done has not been getting results. We have to try new methods,” she said. ...
https://theintercept.com/2018/11/13/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-sunrise-activists-nancy-pelosi/

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