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Messages - Sigmetnow

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Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 19, 2018, 08:41:58 PM »
Dr. Kate Marvel: "If climate change was a hoax, an insurance company could undercut all the competition by offering lower rates. None of them do.”

“In the near future, insurance companies will likely stop insuring homes, buildings, farms, factories, schools, hospitals etc, etc, that they judge to be under imminent, inevitable and constant threat of damage because of climate change. We’re talking here about properties that are at risk of being permanently inundated by rising sea levels, but also those on river flood plains, those in forests that regularly burn and those on the edges of ever encroaching deserts.”

The Glacier Trust - Insuring the uninsurable

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 18, 2018, 04:12:37 PM »
Evacuation plan 'out the window' when fire hit California town
When a “megafire” engulfed Paradise, California, officials and residents had to abandon their evacuation plans and improvise new ways to save lives, learning lessons that could help the growing number of U.S. communities at risk to wildfires. ...

Southern California:
Why California Authorities Are Sharing This Terrifying Video of a Woman Escaping a Wildfire

California searches for 1,000 missing in its deadliest fire
Forensic recovery teams pressed their search for more victims in the flame-ravaged northern California town of Paradise on Friday as authorities sought clues to the fate of about 1,000 people reported missing in the state’s deadliest wildfire on record.

U.S. Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Joins Environmental Activists in Protest at Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s Office
The proposed committee would, among other things, establish a 10-year plan to transition the U.S. economy to become carbon neutral, according to draft legislation that the activists presented to Pelosi’s office. The activists are also pushing Democratic leaders to reject campaign contributions from fossil fuel industry groups. “We need every person who is going to claim the mantle of Democratic leadership to take the no fossil fuel money pledge,” Prakash said at the sit-in outside Pelosi’s office.

Ocasio-Cortez’s decision to join the protesters and march on her own House leader sets a tone of urgency and combativeness that is rare on Capitol Hill. Walking into the Cannon House Office Building, she told The Intercept something new had to be tried. “The way things are done has not been getting results. We have to try new methods,” she said. ...

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 13, 2018, 07:40:30 PM »
Wildfires are likely to continue to outpace recent projections because the underlying global climate models used underestimate precipitation changes in California, including periods of prolonged drought.

California’s Wildfire and Climate Change Warnings Are Still Too Conservative, Scientist Says

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 13, 2018, 01:02:42 AM »
Immmediate preventative measures:
#NBC7 San Diego on Twitter: "FIRST ALERT WEATHER: Power has been shut off to dozens of San Diego-area communities during today's Red Flag Warning.

Long-term preventative measures:
Fueling the Fire
Controlling combustibles is a major reason we halted the routine conflagration of cities that afflicted America’s cities up to a century ago. Until then, towns burned as often as the surrounding countryside since both were made of the same materials and experienced the same drought and winds. In principle, a similar logic might apply to our rural and wild landscapes if we could agree on what we wanted and how to achieve it. Proper tinkering, many observers think, might allow us to promote the good fires we want and prevent the bad fires we don’t.

For members of the Trump administration, this reasoning leads to “forest management,” which they seem to equate with chain saws. They argue that big-tree logging can be a benign (and profitable) surrogate for fire. But while all fuel is biomass, not all biomass is available as fuel. What fire wants is particles with a lot of surface relative to mass; it wants what a campfire or hearth fire wants. If you wish a fire to flash and roar, put in pine needles, dry grass, and kindling. Add a freshly cut green log and the fire will go out.

Which is to say, logging and burning do different things. Logging physically removes biomass; fire chemically changes it. Logging takes the big stuff and leaves the little; fire burns the little stuff and leaves the big. After a crown fire—a fire that flashes through a forest canopy—what remains are the tree trunks that logging would have hauled off. Removing them earlier would have lathered the land with post-cut debris called slash—exactly the kind of volatile fuel that fire favors. Slash disposal, in turn, typically means burning it, which has its own hazards for escape fires and which fills the sky with noxious smoke. Up until recent decades, the great conflagrations of American history have, with almost preternatural cunning, trailed logging and land-clearing. This is a country that is good at startups, not so great at cleaning up after itself. But that doesn’t mean some kinds of active management can’t work.

Where fires are crashing into towns, the real fuel is the built environment. Aerial photos of savaged suburbs tend to show incinerated structures and still-standing trees. The vegetation is adapted to fire; the houses aren’t. Once multiple structures begin to burn, the local fire services are overwhelmed and the fire spreads from building to building. This is the kind of urban conflagration Americans thought they had banished in the early 20th century. It’s like watching measles or polio return. Clearly, the critical reforms must target our houses and towns and revaccinate them against today’s fire threats. The National Fire Protection Association’s Firewise program shows how to harden houses and create defensible space without nuking the scene into asphalt or dirt. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 11, 2018, 06:20:32 PM »
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
11/10/18, 12:10 AM
If Tesla can help people in California wildfire, please let us know. Model S & X have hospital grade HEPA filters. Maybe helpful for transporting people.
Elon Musk authorizes Tesla employees to provide assistance for the California wildfires and 'not worry about payment'
California, Tesla’s home state, is currently on fire as the current wildfire season is proving to be particularly devastating.  CEO Elon Musk has authorized Tesla employees to provide assistance for the wildfires and not worry about payment....

Edit:  more:
Tesla's 'Bioweapon Defense Mode' is proving invaluable to owners affected by CA wildfires

Tesla makes Supercharging free for owners affected by California wildfires

“Tesla has also released additional battery capacity to those cars with software-limited battery packs in the areas affected by the fires, just as they did during Hurricane Florence.  The additional capacity will also be reverted in mid-December.”

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 09, 2018, 01:33:57 AM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 5:12 PM
#CampFire if we go off of the heat signature, know fire locations it's probably close to 40K acres. PIO just now said 17K acres, so this map may not be far off. [ Image below.]
- #CampFire Clark x/Skyway units advising they're running out of water, need water tenders. They have 150 people in a building with several buildings and a gas station on fire next to it.
- #CampFire sending strike teams of engines to help, 10 engines. Clark x/Skyway.

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 07, 2018, 07:51:11 PM »
NOAA NCEI Climate on Twitter: "Alaska had its warmest October on record with a statewide average temperature of 34.5°F, 9.0°F above the long-term average...”
Image below.

Alaska had its warmest October on record with a statewide average temperature of 34.5°F, 9.0°F above the long-term average. This surpassed the previous record of 34.0°F in 2013. Both Anchorage and Bethel experienced their warmest September followed by the warmest October on record. The warm temperatures also led to below-average snowfall for interior locations, with Fairbanks receiving only 0.7 inch of snow during the month. This tied with 2013 and was the second lowest October snowfall since 1926 for the city.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 04, 2018, 05:51:16 PM »
Stock news and predictions/discussion:

#StanphylCapital [notorious TSLA short] down another 7% in Oct according to @markbspiegel's "investor" letter.
All losses due to $TSLA
YTD down -15.5% while the S&P $SPY is up 3% …
(More at the link.)

Edit:  Here’s a timely article on Mark Spiegel’s Tesla predictions since 2013:
5 Years Of Incorrect Claims & Forecasts About Tesla From TSLA Bear Mark Spiegel

ValueAnalyst’s predictions for Tesla earnings for Q3 were higher than anyone’s on Wall Street — yet were much lower than the actual results.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/3/18, 5:44 PM
Even bulls deemed the following Aug 24 prediction "enthusiastic," but it will actually prove conservative.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 8/24/18, 12:17 PM
#Tesla Prediction
$1B in GAAP profits
$2B in Free cash flow

$5B in GAAP profits
$5B in Free cash flow

<< 5B GAAP profit in 2019 translates to $30 EPS. This is 50% higher than the highest estimate from Wall Street.
VA:  Yes
<< After your bold Q3 $1 EPS call, I have to believe everything is possible now.  $30 EPS is conservative in your view.  I will take a wild guess. Let’s say $40 EPS. Times 50 multiple which translates into $2000 target price in 2019. Bears are going to have heart attack with this.

Consequences / Re: Oceanic anoxia
« on: October 29, 2018, 05:48:58 PM »
SteveMDFP, I believe the link below is the one you meant to post.  Indeed, it is shocking.

Coastal Pacific Oxygen Levels Now Plummet Once A Year
Scientists say West Coast waters now have a hypoxia season, or dead-zone season, just like the wildfire season.

Hypoxia is a condition in which the ocean water close to the seafloor has such low levels of dissolved oxygen that the organisms living down there die.

Crabber David Bailey, who skippers the Morningstar II, is rattled by the news. He remembers a hypoxia event out of Newport, Oregon, about a decade ago. He says it shows up "like a flip of a switch."

"It shows up like a flip of a switch," he says. "If there are crabs in the pot, they're dead. Straight up," Bailey says. And if you re-bait the pots, "when you go out the next time, they're blanks, they're absolutely empty. The crabs have left the area."

A hypoxia event will kill everything that can't swim away—animals like crabs, sea cucumbers and sea stars.

"We can now say that Oregon has a hypoxia season much like the wildfire season," says Francis Chan, co-chair of the California Hypoxia Science Task Force.  ...

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: October 16, 2018, 12:26:42 AM »
It's Time For The Adults To Take Charge — 100 Corporations Responsible For 71% Of Carbon Emissions

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 14, 2018, 05:29:56 PM »
“70 forecast advisories issued over a 20-day period......summed up in 10 short seconds. I feel like forecasters at the @NHC_Atlantic deserve a medal or something (or at the very least, a round of applause). Nicely done sir. #Leslie”
Ten-second video at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 14, 2018, 01:02:40 PM »
Again in September, the Tesla Model 3 generated more revenue than any other passenger car in the U.S., at any price.

Congratulations, @elonmusk and @Tesla on the #1 selling car [by revenue] in the U.S. in the most recent quarter, beating the 2nd place Toyota Camry by more than $1 billion!

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 01:50:52 PM »
The second video in this article has an amazing extended section of winds on the ground during the eyewall.

Video from the hurricane hunter plane:
Michael at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like… “

The four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months. #HurricaneMichael #Michael
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 12:53:20 AM »
”FEMA has no idea of the likelihood of rescuers finding survivors, or bodies, said spokesman Ignatius Carroll.  "We can't search every pile of rubble."
Rescuers look for survivors after Michael obliterates Florida beach town

Massive relief and recovery effort unfolding on US 231 S. coming into Panama City.
Video clip at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 08, 2018, 01:39:25 PM »
Wow!  Safety is a prime factor in car-buying choice for many people.  Tesla just gave them another reason to go to their brand.

Model 3 achieves the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA
The Tesla Team October 7, 2018
Based on the advanced architecture of Model S and Model X, which were previously found by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to have the lowest and second lowest probabilities of injury of all cars ever tested, we engineered Model 3 to be the safest car ever built. Now, not only has Model 3 achieved a perfect 5-star safety rating in every category and sub-category, but NHTSA’s tests also show that it has the lowest probability of injury of all cars the safety agency has ever tested.
In addition to its near 50/50 weight distribution, Model 3 was also designed with an extremely low polar moment of inertia, which means that its heaviest components are located closer to the car’s center of gravity. Even though Model 3 has no engine, its performance is similar to what’s described as a “mid-engine car” due to its centered battery pack (the heaviest component of the car) and the fact that Model 3’s rear motor is placed slightly in front of the rear axle rather than behind it. Not only does this architecture add to the overall agility and handling of the car, it also improves the capability of stability control by minimizing rotational kinetic energy.

Tesla Model 3 achieves lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 04, 2018, 10:11:41 PM »
Tesla has begun publishing quarterly safety data, as promised.

Q3 2018 Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla
At Tesla, the safety of our customers is our top priority, which is why it’s critical that we design and build the safest cars in the world. Not only do we conduct extensive in-house testing and simulation to ensure our vehicles achieve top safety performance before they ever reach the road, we are also uniquely positioned to leverage the hundreds of thousands of miles of real-world data our fleet collects every month to continuously improve our vehicles and develop a more complete picture of safety over time.

Because every Tesla is connected, in most instances we are able to learn immediately when a Tesla vehicle has been involved in a crash. Additionally, our non-traditional sales model allows us to have a direct relationship with our customers for the lifecycle of ownership, providing an avenue for us to supplement our records and gain even more insight as needed. In contrast, automakers whose cars aren’t connected and who utilize networks of third-party franchised dealers may never know when a vehicle is involved in an accident. Through traditional channels, it can take months or even years for lawsuits or claims to be filed that provide automakers with insight into an accident that allows them to draw meaningful conclusions and improve safety.
Here’s a look at the data we’re able to report for Q3:

Over the past quarter, we’ve registered one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged.

For those driving without Autopilot, we registered one accident or crash-like event for every 1.92 million miles driven. By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data shows that in the United States, there is an automobile crash every 492,000 miles. While NHTSA’s data includes accidents that have occurred, our records include accidents as well as near misses (what we are calling crash-like events).

Moving forward, we will publicly release these accident figures on a quarterly basis.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 02, 2018, 08:52:39 PM »
Can a Tesla bull PLEASE explain to me the following four things:

Clearly we can’t.  ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 02, 2018, 03:13:31 PM »
Tesla Q3 production and delivery results announced

Tesla delivers 83.5k vehicles for Q3 2018, Model 3 production hits 53,239
During the third quarter, Tesla produced a total of 80,142 electric cars, 50% more than the company’s prior all-time high in Q2 2018. Tesla produced 53,239 Model 3, as well as 26,903 Model S and X vehicles.

Deliveries for Q3 totaled 83,500 vehicles, comprised of 55,840 Model 3, as well as 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. With these figures, Tesla’s Q3 deliveries alone corresponds to 80% of the company’s entire deliveries last year. The electric car maker also delivered about twice as many Model 3 in the third quarter as all previous quarters combined.

The third quarter saw Tesla transition from its self-imposed “production hell” and well into what Elon Musk describes as “delivery logistics hell.” Even before the Q3 results were released, expectations from Wall Street analysts already pointed to the electric car maker hitting its target of producing and delivering 50,000-55,000 Model 3 in the quarter. Even Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, who has long been a Tesla skeptic, released a note stating that he expects the company to achieve its Q3 production and delivery targets.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 01, 2018, 10:21:32 PM »
What about the Not-A-Flamethrower, which made $10 million for the Boring Company?

And SpaceX’s autonomous drone ships, named, “Of Course I Still Love You” and “Just Read the Instructions,” after the Culture Ships in Iain M. Banks’ science fiction novels.  Not to mention the waypoint once assigned to the Falcon 9’s fairing-catcher ship “Mr. Stevens” of “Your Mom’s House.”  Did you know the Falcon 9 was named after the Millenium Falcon, of Star Wars? 

Or Tesla’s “Ludicrous speed” mode, from the movie “Spaceballs.”  Or “Mad Max” lane change mode....

Elon’s fans love the humor, just as we take very seriously Tesla’s goal to accelerated the advent of sustainable energy and transport.  And Tesla’s success is proof that humor doesn’t get in the way of important progress, and in fact makes life a little bit more worth living. :) 

Science / Re: ICESAT-2
« on: September 30, 2018, 08:19:59 PM »
NASA ICE (@NASA_ICE) 9/30/18, 1:53 PM
The #ICESat2 laser is on, and has fired its first photons!
10,000 pulses each second, hundreds of trillions of photons with each pulse- all to measure the height of earth’s surface.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 27, 2018, 07:20:50 PM »
Prepare for 10 Feet [3.1 m] of Sea Level Rise, California Commission Tells Coastal Cities
California coastal cities should be prepared for the possibility that oceans will rise more than 10 feet by 2100 and submerge parts of beach towns, the state Coastal Commission warns in new draft guidance.

The powerful agency, which oversees most development along 1,100 miles of coast, will consider approving the guidance this fall. A staff report recommending the changes was released last week.

Earlier commission guidance put top sea-level rise at 6 feet by 2100. But according to the new report, there’s the “potential for rapid ice loss to result in an extreme scenario of 10.2 feet of sea level rise” by the end of the century. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 19, 2018, 06:28:01 PM »
North Carolina is still closed, almost a week after Hurricane Florence made landfall.

9/19/18, 12:00 PM
Here's a look at road closures (currently 850), including major routes such as I-95 and I-40. Travel is still not advised to these regions due to rivers that haven't crested, debris, downed power lines and more. For info. on routes, visit #FlorenceNC
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
Images below.

919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 17, 2018, 03:27:52 AM »
New Jersey approves new home solar initiative. Program eliminates up front costs and creates a net-zero monthly electric bill.

NJ Brings No Cost Solar to Homeowners

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 15, 2018, 06:21:56 PM »
Entry-level luxury cars.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 15, 2018, 03:00:22 PM »
#Tesla's Model S remained W-Europe's top selling luxury model according to @AIDNewsletter data
It remained ahead of S-Class/7-Series/A8 in their own backyard during H1.
Model S sales expected to rise in H2 thanks to tax change in The Netherlands then slow next year

“People are sick and tired in Europe of small cars with poor performance engines. Tired of paying 7$ a gallon . Tired of crazy taxes they pay for those small boxes . When Tesla puts the foot in Europe properly then Asia the support encountered will be unseen .”


Base $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Production To Start In 8 Months

Tesla threat to auto makers to grow dramatically in ~8 months with the $35,000 Tesla Model 3
@Toyota Camry XSE  $34,950
@BMW 3 Series >$34,900 @Mercedes-Benz C >$40,250
@Audi A4 $36,000

Meanwhile in Fremont, cost of building Teslas going down every day.  (30% decrease in labor per car, after lessons learned during the first 5,000-Model-3 burst week last June.)

The Tesla Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in August, by revenue. 
(Wait for the Model Y to take on the SUVs, and the Tesla pickup truck to enter the truck market!)

Tesla’s positive growth is organic, word-of-mouth support, not ad-company blather.

Ethan Shapiro (@DJFrustration) 9/13/18, 11:01 PM
Big props to @Tesla @elonmusk and @woodhaus2 on designing the safest SUV, ever. My wife was rear ended (hit & run) in Miami today. She was shaken, but should be ok. First responders said, “as soon as they heard to look for a white Tesla, they knew she’d be ok.” Thanks guys.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 14, 2018, 12:57:05 AM »
Hurricane Florence: storm surge due to the large wind field.

NHC 5pm update Thurs Sept 13:
“Water levels are increasingly quickly on the western side of Pamlico Sound.  A gauge at Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently recorded a water height of about 4 feet above normal levels.”

Flooding at North Topsail Beach.
Image below.

Road/river flooding caused by storm surge reported 90 miles inland:
Photos at the link.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 13, 2018, 02:59:46 AM »
Forget FEMA.  Waffle House is on the case!
(These small, sit-down restaurants are known for getting back up and running — even if only partially — after major storms.  FEMA has actually used them as a guide to know where conditions are worst!)

Waffle House News (@WaffleHouseNews)
9/11/18, 4:08 PM
The @WaffleHouse Storm Center is activated and monitoring #Florence. Plan ahead and be safe.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 06:36:28 PM »
Hurricane Florence Could Unleash Pig Shit, Coal Ash, Industrial Waste
The forecast for Hurricane Florence is about as ominous as it gets. The National Weather Service—a bastion of calm forecast language—said the storm has “the potential for unbelievable damage.” And part of what’s so disconcerting is what could be damaged as Florence plows into the Carolinas this week.

The storm is headed into the heart of an industrial wasteland festooned with pig shit lagoons, piles of toxic leftovers from burning coal, and Superfund sites. With Florence forecast to dump rain that can be measured in feet, these sites run the real risk of sending their waste into rivers, forests, and people’s yards. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 02:36:07 PM »
NWS re Florence:  “Life-threatening.”  “Catastrophic.”  “Once in a lifetime.” 

Folks south of the North/South Carolina border thought they might not be significantly impacted.  Latest models suggest otherwise.

 Alicia M Bentley (@AliciaMBentley)
9/12/18, 12:23 AM
Animation shows MSLP & maximum 10-meter wind speed assoc. w/ #Hurricane #Florence over the next 4 days (18Z #FV3GFS). Florence is fcst to slow as it approaches NC coast, hovering just offshore for *2.5 days*! Stalling will result in dangerous storm surge & over 12 inches of rain.
Map with animation at the link.

Marshall Shepherd (@DrShepherd2013)
9/12/18, 6:37 AM
evolving model forecasts suggest disturbing picture for coastal SC, NC, and GA...>Very unusual and dangerous situation. There is still uncertainty once the storm nears land so you MUST WATCH THE EVOLVING FORECAST. Do not look at a static one and say "that's it" #HurricaneFlorence
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 11, 2018, 08:10:30 PM »

Bill McKibben (@billmckibben). 9/11/18, 11:46 AM
It's rude to say it at the moment, I guess, but perhaps worth remembering that the North Carolina legislature literally banned using the latest science on sea level rise for coastal planning.

MO:  The state is also complicit in allowing toxic coal ash dumps,, now about to be inundated with 20+ inches of rain - arsenic, cadmium, hexavalent chromium, lead, mercury, and selenium...  with a side order of hog farms runoff...

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: September 11, 2018, 07:36:31 PM »
Solid-state battery startup secures backing from several automakers as it claims breakthrough for electric vehicles
Several automakers interested in electric vehicles are turning to solid-state batteries for next-gen electric cars in the “post Li-ion era.”

Now a startup developing all solid-state batteries (ASSB) secured backing from several high-profile investors, including several automakers, as it claims a breakthrough for the technology that will enable better electric cars.

Solid Power is a Colorado-based startup that spun out of a battery research program at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The company claims to have achieved a breakthrough by incorporating a high-capacity lithium metal anode in lithium batteries – creating a solid-state cell with an energy capacity “2-3X higher” than conventional lithium-ion.

lSolid-state batteries are thought to be a lot safer than common li-ion cells and could have more potential for higher energy density, but they also have limitations like temperature ranges and electrode current density. Not to mention we have yet to see a company capable of producing them at large-scale and at an attractive price point competitive with li-ion.”

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 08, 2018, 03:25:04 AM »
US:  North Carolina

NC Emergency Managem (@NCEmergency)
9/7/18, 8:47 PM
@NC_Governor Roy Cooper this eve declared a State of Emergency and waived transportation rules to help farmers harvest & transport their crops more quickly. @NCEmergency is working w/ locals & feds to prepare for #Florence and any potential impacts to NC.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: September 08, 2018, 12:50:47 AM »
Model 3 is mapping to the planned S-Curve, with near exact exponential growth to date (R^2 = 0.968!!!) Nice work
Exponential curve graph below.

Tesla Model 3 was the #1 selling car (excl. trucks and SUVs) by revenue in the U.S. in August, for the 2nd straight month and by a wide margin.
Congratulations to @elonmusk and @Tesla! ...
Yellow graph below.

Tesla is disrupting the whole U.S. luxury car segment: 31% of all luxury cars sold in the U.S. last month were Teslas. Audi, BMW, Lexus, and Mercedes sure would like to know how @elonmusk and $TSLA are doing that- in a market that's otherwise down (20%).
Multi-colored graph below.

9/7/18, 12:40 PM
The average sale price of #Model3 reaches $60K in Q3, $4,838 higher than Q2. Source:… The price increase on 3 Aug moved the average up by $990. The rest is due to AWD&P deliveries.
Image of spreadsheet below.

Massive batch of Model 3 deliveries being scheduled right now for rest of September. Shaping up to be another big month for @Tesla. Reddit and TMC threads are hopping.

Tesla accelerates Model 3 delivery timeline for rear-wheel-drive version

Seeing a shocking number of husband and wife pairs in the bay area buying two Tesla Model 3. Main reason given: nobody wants to drive the BMW any more.

<< I’ll be a two Tesla family when my Acura dies. I secretly stopped going for oil changes
<< Yep.... our first Tesla was the Model 3 and we fell in love with Tesla. So much so, my wife wanted a Model X ... and she gets what she wants.
<< As of Friday we are a 2 tesla family. It’s actually pretty common - most of my tesla owner friends either have 2 already or will but are waiting til it’s time to replace the ICE.
<< It's happening here in Seattle too!  Model S and 3 owner here.  :-)

<< Yesterday, 29 months and 3 days from the reservation, including 67 days from the order, we have got a nice home delivery. It was definitely worth it to wait. Driving Tesla Model 3 is just amazing, pure joy. Thank you @Tesla team and @elonmusk for not giving up.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: September 03, 2018, 09:30:15 PM »
Stefan Rahmstorf on Twitter: "A phenomenal heat record: so hot were the past five months in Germany! The old record from 2003 was beaten by a full 1.6 °C! Scale on the left shows the temperature deviation from the first 30 years of the record, the color curve the data smoothed over 11 years.”
First image below.

“Here is the same analysis for all of Europe, thanks to Etienne Kapikian @EKMeteo
 Anyone interested in global mean temperature, for all 12 months of each year: I post a graph of that almost every month around the 15th when the @NASAGISS data come out.”
Second image below.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 01, 2018, 03:26:25 PM »
“What we eat can save the world, and ourselves.”

Billions of farm animals deserve a day of rest too — keep them off the grill and off your table on Labor Day

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: September 01, 2018, 12:30:43 AM »
Differences in recently-registered Tesla Model 3 VINs suggest a few Model 3 will soon be manufactured with EU standards.

Exclusive: Tesla Registers 17 LHD Model 3 VINs — Comin' To Europe, Baby!

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 31, 2018, 09:12:00 PM »
Bjørn Nyland takes a ride in the 100% electric Pipistrel plane.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 11:16:11 PM »
I was thinking more of the 11 acres of mostly-flat roof on the average-size warehouse/distribution center, but, OK. ;)  ;D

Personally I was wondering how much a company would charge to re-charge the batteries of their haulage firms semi's....

Great if you own the end to end infrastructure like Tesla does.  Not so great if you don't..

Tesla says semi truck charging will cost 7¢ ($0.07) per kWh.  Perhaps Tesla will install megachargers at the trucking distribution centers under some sort of lease deal that guarantees that price.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 30, 2018, 01:51:10 PM »
Norway’s biggest hydrogen fuel supplier for cars is calling it quits.

From Google Translate:
The hitherto largest supplier of hydrogen fuel to cars in Norway, Hyop, seems to have to shut down the operation of its five hydrogen stations, the company announced in a press release.

"Introduction of hydrogen fuels is a challenging task where Hyop is one of the pioneers. In his seventh year of operation, Hyop is experiencing that access to working capital is so scarce that one sees having to shut down the operation of the hydrogen stations, "he said.

"We are hoping to wake up someone so we can drive on, but when the box is empty, we have no other option than stopping the operation," says a disappointed general manager, Ulf Hafseld, to E24.

Hyop was founded in 2011.

Hyop legger ned alle hydrogenstasjonene etter syv års drift

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 30, 2018, 01:18:34 PM »
We discuss land use a lot in this thread.  Bloomberg’s new graphics are eye-opening.

How does America use its land? These maps show a whole new way to look at the U.S.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 27, 2018, 09:49:14 PM »
Thanks for your concern, but my years of panic are long past, I'm just hoping for an extended period of palliative care.  :(

I doubt that in a short period of time solar, or wind, or a combination thereof can double the power we've developed over the last 120 years without costing more than we can afford, both in dollars and in ecological damage.
There are only so many Niagara Falls, 3 Gorges and La Grande hydro sites available, and the low hanging fruit was picked one hundred years ago.

Bear in mind that my figures are for residential transportation only. Every truck, bus or steam shovel that draws from the grid instead of the pump will need to be accounted for. The cost of batteries can come down quite a bit, but their efficiency is pretty good - not to far to fall.

We've had discussions about the efficiency of Tesla's motors. Again the cost might drop significantly, but their efficiency is already very high, squeezing the last few percentage points won't do much to alleviate the situation.

You recommend waiting until the problems raise their heads before we worry about them. We did this back in the late 80's and it isn't working out so well. Rather than presuming that our sons and grandsons will play Whack-a-Mole better than we or our fathers did, why not try to reign in some of the madness now. Before it becomes too big to fail.

Mostly, I was recommending that you don’t worry about it. ;)  Utility and storage folks are all over it, make no mistake.  EVs will not suddenly make up 100% of transport, so as they grow, different power solutions will be tested out. 

All that potential battery storage has the forward-looking utilities drooling.  There have been tests with smart charging that allow the power company some control over when and how fast your EV charges — and allowing them to suck power back at times of high demand.  (Participants can notify them on an app if they have a reason they need a full charge at a particular time.)  The tests were quite successful, so expect to see more of this.

Seriously:  solar powered, grid-free EV charging will be here sooner than you think.  The next version of the Tesla Superchargers, due later this year, for one.  Other charging companies have announced similar plans.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 27, 2018, 06:24:26 PM »
... filling a 16 ton monster Li battery, with the current deployed technology, is going to take around 15 times the time it takes to charge a Model S.

Long distance a two driver rig can drive 800 miles at an average 50mph, before it has to stop for a full 8 hours. Hence the need for a 900 mile range battery.

But if you have to stop after the first 400 (best practise to not degrade the battery), and then take 5 hours to charge it, you are going to run your drivers out of time and day.

”Charging:  400 miles in 30 minutes
Range:  500 miles (updated: ‘probably closer to 600 miles’”

Source: Tesla, and the Tesla Semi reveal.

Please don’t make up your own specs for the Tesla Semi truck.  Thanks.,438.msg169704.html#msg169704

More fun facts:  the Tesla Semi truck batteries have four charge ports, not just one.  And Tesla has designed a “megacharger” to charge the truck at a much higher rate than cars. Check out the video at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: August 27, 2018, 06:15:01 PM »
Here’s an electric cargo bike that has the potential to replace a car.

the CERO One is part electric cargo bicycle, part SUV

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 27, 2018, 03:12:38 PM »
NeilT wrote: “Now go and click on my link about rolling resistance. ...”

I bow to your superior knowledge of rolling resistance and diesel power in calculating energy consumption.  However...

- Electric motors are about 90% efficient in their energy use.  Whereas diesels are at best around 40% — the rest is lost on moving those hundreds of extra parts and waste heat.

- Electric vehicles regain energy through regenerative braking, whereas diesels do not.  The actual Semi consumption may be higher than 2 kWh/mile... but the regeneration makes up for it!

- Tesla battery management software is continually improving.  It’s not just a matter of sticking four (newly-designed and highly efficient) Model 3 motors on two axles and saying that’s that.  Continual software tuning for use in a truck will provide the best power while conserving energy, to the millisecond. 

- Side Note:  Model 3 “Performance” motors are the same as “regular” Model 3 motors.  They are simply tested and the best of the lot go through an extra burn-in period to assure they are up to the task.  So the Semi Truck motors will no doubt beat the average Tesla from the “past”  ;)  — meaning a year or two ago. :)

Edit:  in essence, a fully-loaded Tesla semi truck has an 80k-pound flywheel feeding electricity back into the batteries every time it goes downhill, or slows for traffic or stop lights/signs.  Driving style will be different!

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 26, 2018, 08:46:48 PM »
Let’s review. 

Tesla Semi Truck stats:

Acceleration 0-60 mph with full 80k lb load: 20 sec (versus ~1 minute with diesel truck)

Speed up a 5% Grade: 60 mph. (Versus “best diesel” 45mph)

Mile Range:  300 or 500 miles (update: “probably closer to 600”)

Powertrain: 4 Independent Motors on Rear Axles
Energy Consumption: Less than 2 kWh per mile (80k lb load, highway speeds)

Fuel Savings: $200,000+

Expected Base Price (300 mile range): $150,000

Expected Base Price (500 mile range): $180,000

(Founders series: $200,000)

Drive train guaranteed for 1 million miles

Quasi-infinite brake life (regen does most of the braking)
No transmission, differentials, emissions, or scrubbers
“Thermo-nuclear explosion-proof glass” (because a cracked windshield puts a truck out of commission)
Can still travel even if one or two motors go out (try that in a diesel!)

Charging:  400 miles in 30 minutes
(Even if [*gasp* ;) ] it does take a few extra minutes to charge, so what?  The EV truck can go faster [Edit- meaning: acceleration, hills, etc.] and make up that time.  Or truck companies could revise their schedules by a few minutes — not a big deal, all part of the new emissions-free trucking scenario. The cost savings will make it worthwhile.)

80% of truck routes are less than 250 miles — get there and back without charging.
$0.07/kWh electricity
Production begins 2019

Sources:,  Nov 2017 reveal event:

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 26, 2018, 01:29:07 PM »
The reservation fee has not increased.

Correct I see what I had confused now. They are requiring an order deposit of $2,500.

That should help cash flow a lot.  It is also the right time to do it, when high volume manufacturing is in place.

The $2,500 order deposit is not new, either.  The whole “increase” story is just FUD.

From March 2017:

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 23, 2018, 10:03:33 PM »
“It doesn't help the green-mission one bit to be dogmatically beholden to a for-profit corporation.”

If one really is rooting for EVs and clean energy, it makes zero sense to be against Tesla, the company which has done, and is doing, more to advance the adoption of electric vehicles than any other company.  (See the charts above.)  “For-profit” — of course!  Tesla and Ford are the only U.S. car companies to not have gone bankrupt.  The auto industry is a killer.  Bears continually obsess about Tesla showing a profit — but until this year, Tesla cared more about growing and succeeding.  By the end of the year (some say by the end of August ;) ), Tesla will have all three.

Tesla makes cars people want.  People may not want a Tesla per se, but they want what Tesla offers.  Other EV makers — and ICE car makers! — need to up their game to make cars with specs that fit more people’s needs, so as to accelerate the switch away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible.  None of that would be happening today without Tesla leading the way.  Even if one doesn’t like the way they are doing it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: August 23, 2018, 06:54:49 PM »
Article:  Tesla FUD Champion Linette Lopez Did It Again — #Pravduh | CleanTechnica
…recall that Tesla did not start the design of the Model 3 in 2010, did not have the layout of the production line ready in 2014, and did not start tuning the production process in 2015. It received most robots for the line in April 2017 and started the line in July 2017.

The public and the shareholders were probably very happy with the 5,000 cars produced in that last week of June. The 4,300 errors, costing 2,652 extra hours (less than $100,000), were far more valuable to Tesla. They enabled Tesla to identify weak spots, places where the assembly line could be improved. They enabled Tesla to move forward another step, helping to reduce the number of hours needed to make a car by 30%. That is worth $200–300 million per quarter, or $1 billion per year. It was perhaps one of the most valuable scrum sprints in history.

Model 3 production, per the Bloomberg Tracker
Aug09: 5538/wk
Aug13: 5824/wk
Aug19: 5942/wk
Aug22: 6278/wk
And Q3 guidance is 50-55k which is 4167-4583/wk average.

Article: Tesla Model 3 production appears to have surpassed the 6k/week mark

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1). 8/18/18, 11:05 AM
$TSLA Model 3 production is growing rapidly. With 29k produced in the first 7 weeks of Q3, reports of potential ramp beyond 6k/w with low CapEx, and 6 more weeks to go in the quarter, #Tesla may blow management guidance and my expectation of 50k to 55k out of the water with 60k.
60k already assumes five days of shutdown.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)8/23/18, 7:18 AM
Randall's Model 1 (Registered VINs) shows that #Model3's produced is rising by ~1000 each day.
Once new owners with assigned VINs submit them to…, Model 2 will also show ~1000 daily rate..

Ellec (@ellec_uk).  8/22/18, 5:28 PM
In 2019 $TSLA could have 25% profit margins on 10k cars (Model S3X) a week with an ASP [all models] of around 70k, That's nearly 10B in profits, not including Energy or Servicing. With the Model Y and Pickup this could triple to 30B in 2021/22. Not counting Semi/Energy/Roadster.

——Tesla Going Private
Article:  Elazar Advisors, LLC: Our $1000+ Tesla Target Was Way Too Low

007 (@TrendTrader007).  8/22/18, 8:09 PM
at this point it seems the process of going private is almost irreversible
The fact that GS [Goldman Sachs] and MS [Morgan Stanley] are already involved and no longer rating $TSLA indicates that the deal will go through

Keep watch for a suspension of TSLA trading, then an announcement….

Karan (@VoxPolitico).  8/23/18, 5:20 AM
Wake up @elonmusk.
We're missing you. [Image:  “C’mon, tweet something.”]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk).  8/23/18, 5:32 AM
I’m dying to
“So many saved drafts. So … so many.”

Article:  Elon Musk and Tesla Might Not Have to Worry About the SEC
The hesitant, understaffed regulator may have a hard time applying its outdated rules to the founder’s tweets.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)
8/17/18, 8:17 AM
Either $TSLA bulls or bears live in an alternate universe. The two groups cannot even agree on facts anymore, let alone on which facts to focus.
- Model 3 commands top market share;
- Model 3 is highly profitable.
Everything else is FUD.

David Sell (@d0cdave).  8/3/18, 1:57 AM
Everyday I get asked “How’s the Tesla doing?” Or “Do you still like the Model 3?”
Fucks sake... I have kids and a family. Nobody asks about them anymore.  ;D
Seriously... so many are curious about the car, it’s health, or if the honeymoon is over.
Wife and kids are doing fine.

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