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Messages - Frivolousz21

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 03:41:55 AM »
Welcome mv89! And thanks for the information. I hope you post more when you find inspiration.

A very good find. The data of the University of Bremen date back to 1972. It is unclear why this data is not considered a standard when compared to US or Japanese data, which only begins in 1978-1979.

Nsidc has data back to 1972.

I am sure bremens data and NSIDCs data are from the same satellite that came before SMMR and was operational  between 1972-1978..

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 09, 2020, 07:30:04 AM »
Any man who spent any time on that ship and harassed women is an insecure little P***y Azz Biiiiiittttccccc ....


Hopefully any man caught being inapropriete is BANNED for life from ever Workin on another scientific expedition.





3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 07:23:41 AM »
The 09/09/20 bremen time series graphic has 2020 literally tied with 2012.

In fact it may have 2020 a few thousand km2 below 2012.

Either way.

If that Beaufort broken ring vanishes for another few days to a week.

2020 will likely be the record lowest on bremen.



4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:09:50 AM »
It wouldn't be much of a rebound anyways when you consider how thin all of the ice is.

What good is 4 year old ice that's under a meter thick

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:07:27 AM »
So now jaxa is down for 3 more days??

How can they genuinely schedule this stuff during the minimum??

Its ridiculous..  do this in December

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 07:04:48 AM »
Is there a particular reason why the 2020 data from the Bremen AMSR2 extent graph is so much closer (or maybe even on top of at this point) the 2012 data while NSIDC still shows 400k+ km^2 of separation still? Is it solely due to resolution or is there something deeper causing the two to differ so much?


Mostly resolution.  The nsidc 25km isn't picking up the open water as well in the CAB, greenland sea, lincoln sea, beaufort, and CAA.

Also data smoothing.  I don't know how nsidc does it.

But bremen IIRC has a 5 day mean heavily weighted to the most recent 2 days.

The most recent bremen graphic has them in a virtual tie.

But 2012 dips even lower next week.

I doubt 2020 matches that

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2020)
« on: September 04, 2020, 06:00:47 AM »
PIOMAS is missing whatever happened north of Greenland to the pole and it's also not getting the obvious low ice areas on the north coast of Ellesmere Island. To misquote a famous songwriter, "Something's happening and we don't know what it is do we Mr. Jones."

I'm not sure what's more important than the unprecedented melt region the Polarstern blasted through between Greenland and the pole, but I hope that they are studying that more important thing.

I find this PIOMAS volume map disquieting. The results do not appear to fit what we have observed.

We wait fof cryosat and icesat 2 in October and get real volumes.

Combine cryosat and smos for thickness and ice sat  for snow depth and we have a great product

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 05:53:56 AM »
The ice on the ESS side of the CAB is an area that really needed to melt out to 82/83N for 2020 to have a real shot at trying to reach 3 million km2 or less.


That didn't happen.

But this area also didn't get almost any compacting winds and ice from the beaufort/chuckchi was sent this way

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 10:19:10 PM »
The 12Z euro has a really consistent narrow wind field that goes nearly perpendicular to the ice edge between the Atlantic side and Laptev.

The ice here is breaking down already inside the ice edge between 85-88N. 

Iirc this is directly over the Laptev bite..

This area could lose quite a bit of ice coverage by the 6-7th.




10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 09:18:22 PM »
Its clear as day that there is a major correlation between bathymetry and the ice edge.


It is much harder to melt ice over the super deep parts of the Arctic

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 07:48:23 AM »
The ice "rebounded" in 13/14 because the weather in JJA was very favorable for it to do so.


This summer also saw the warmest MJJ on record.   By a lot.  It torched all summer until the very end of July.


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:48:53 PM »
Glennbuck posted this above.  This long stay at or above freezing between 80-90N.  Is amazing.  Even with solar insolation plummeting.

If any other year was like this someone please post about it.

This has to be super rare
 

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 10:11:45 PM »
whoi itp114 in the Beaufort. Microcat1 is mounted at 5m depth. Peaked at -0.665C today, avg closer to -0.75. Position is roughly centre of the worldview image.

Last buoy status on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : temperature = -0.8125 °C, battery = 10.423 V
Plot of ITP Buoy Status
Last position on 2020/8/31 113047 UTC : 74.6377° N, 136.6473° W

2020  244.20834   -0.7900   26.4626   5.963
2020  244.21876   -0.7863   26.4580   5.967
2020  244.22918   -0.7592   26.4432   5.968
2020  244.23959   -0.6650   26.4070   5.963
2020  244.25001   -0.7083   26.4379   5.964
2020  244.26043   -0.7417   26.4465   5.962
2020  244.27084   -0.7502   26.4250   5.960
2020  244.28126   -0.7843   26.4523   5.956
2020  244.29168   -0.8026   26.4560   5.962

https://go.nasa.gov/2QC7gCW
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=165196

Still seeing bottom melt.  That could easily be 1-1.5C a day pending on how well mixed the top 5-10M of water are.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 28, 2020, 05:49:47 AM »
Could be an early minimum.

With that anti cyclone dominating while we lose insolation

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 05:46:59 AM »
Jaxa dropped -98K today.

Almost another century break.


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:24:39 PM »
Unless some huge technology advancements come along we will burn every reachable energy carbon we can.


If u wish to hope for something.

Hope and pray the release of truly monumental levels of methane from clathrates, permafrost, and permakarst isn't really likely.

Has there been any reports of major methane release in the Kara or Laptev.

The Laptev has 6-9C SSTs over the area that is 8-20M depth...

The Kara has 8-13C SSTs over the same depth.


In 2011 that Russian methane guru and his wife toured the Laptev in early September.

They remarked at how wild it was that the surface was 3-4C but the sea bed at the 15M depths was also 2-3C water.

And that region had the largest methane bubbles they had ever seen in the Laptev up to that point
..
This year truly nutty SSTS  have been in the laptev, Kara, barents, and Hudson Bay.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:08:11 AM »
The ice is already DOA.

So why cry over spilt milk???

There is nothing to solve.  Just observe the horror.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:46:00 AM »
HOLY SHIT THE 12Z EURO IS AMAZING.
<snip>
I've been watching for the last several days to see how it was going to evolve.  It appears to be getting more definite.

Both models have had that low rattling around the Barents for all of their recent runs.  It's only just the most recent that have pushed the pressure below 980.

Rain and wind over the Atlantic side, which among other things may tend to compact things and ship them in the direction of the Fram.

Yeah, 2nd lowest is pretty certain if it hits, and it means there is still a chance at lowest.

And you didn't even mention the sunny WAA over Beaufort which is far enough South for another 10 days of effective solar insolation melt.

Plus very warm ESE winds...

Tomorrow 2020 is going to drop below 2019 on JAXA and it won't be passed up again until after the minimum.

Another -120,000K today.




19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 04:07:07 AM »
5 days out, we could be in for our second big storm of 2020.

968 on the forecast. 50/50 chance it sticks at this point, like the last one the next 48 hours will more or less see what we get. It would be awful for the ice at this stage being so thin and anything sub 970 would be a disaster in this area.


If this post is to inflammatory then delete it.

Anyways reading back a few pages I notice multiple contributors who spent all summer for downplaying what took place, at times pushed data products in the not so genuine way and one poster from what I could gather since I can't see his posts even started posting daily during the slow early August stage in the daily records thread.

Well that stopped.  And now this thread haa seemingly gone silent.

Even tho 2019 is below 2020 on jaxa attn 2020 is going  to finish somewhere between 250-500K below 2019.

We are all bias but it's just a chuckle that there was no way 2020 was finishing above 2019 on any metric except whixh year had more ice coverage at it's minimum?

2019 will win that category easily

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 04:18:15 AM »
Might be spread out OVER A FEW DAYS...

but JAXA IS SHOWING HUGE FREAKING HUGE LOSSES ON THE CONCENTRATION GRAPHIC

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 18, 2020, 05:24:19 AM »
Slowly but steady the Pacific side is vanishing.


Very low Beaufort concentration while the chuckchi is gone

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 17, 2020, 07:59:48 PM »
I haven't been able to post recently cuz I had a new job working 60 to 70 hours a week.

Everything is looking towards a second lowest extent a record low volume and possibly a record-low area but it's going to be close

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 15, 2020, 06:38:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 14th, 2020:
     5,039,562 km2, a drop of -81,511 km2.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

The first major decline in late July and first half of August. It is greater than the drop in the 2010's average.
From my point of view, looking at the Bremen concentration map, there is still a lot of weakness and possibility of melting/compression in the ASI.

Breman also uses a higher resolution channel that Essentially derives it's extent value exclusively from the CHANNEL 89 GHZ -- 3X5km resolution.

While jaxa IIRC uses the bootstrap algorithm.

Which IIRC uses CHANNEL 18 AND 36 GHZ.  One of them provides the basic ice coverage/concentration.

While the other helps weed out influence from clouds, vapor, ice crystals, fog...

And this is at 12KM resolution.


Also the Bremen time series that shows today at like 4.85 million is an average of the last 5 days with heavier weighted average on the most recent 2 days.

Jaxa uses a blend average of the most recent 2 days that is a smoothing method.


Lastly AMSR2 CHANNEL 89ghz as an exclusive way to determine ice concentration is likely worse than using norsex ssmis low res channels.

Just a heads up

But yeah jaxa is probably going to have some centuries.

Probably lose about 1-1.15 million between now and Sept 1st.



24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:43:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 6th, 2020:
     5,489,054 km2, a drop of -13,014 km2.
     2020 is still the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

I am working on table and graph.

I think this is going to be the last small drop for a while.

I expect 60-85K drops for the next 10 days maybe longer coming up.


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:41:26 AM »
This is why the SOUTHERN CAB is ruined.  This is why I can't understand how anyone can think the thickest ice didn't get hit hard.



From nsidc:

Quote
Figure 5b. This figure shows melt pond fractional area anomalies for May (left) and June (right). Red colors show more extensive melt ponds relative to the 2002 to 2020 average, whereas blue colors show fewer melt ponds than average.

Credit: Sanggyun Lee, University College London
High-resolution image

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:34:35 AM »
No need to argue over surface temps.

AMSR2 scans the surface for wetness.  If the ice surface freezes up and I mean barely freezes amsr2 won't consider it wet.

Comparing 2020, 2019, 2016, and 2012.  This year is still pretty melting all over.  Even if its slow.



27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:13:16 AM »
Losses are about to substantially pick up.




28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:20:45 AM »
The 00zgfs dipole is only quasi and weak but its in perfect position to finish off the Chukchi, Beaufort, and Western CAB.

The wind shift takes place between hour 48-60. By hour 72 warm compacting winds will be at hand.

After hour 72 we will start seeing 75-100K loss days on jaxa.

Probably a couple century breaks.



29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:42:21 AM »
The growing gap ... July 23 - August 2.

Biggest thing.


TONS OF SUN

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:36:19 AM »
My take on the loss of ice north of Greenland is tidally forced Atl. entering by Svalbard enhancing the existing current towards Nares of the same waters but pushing more forcefully along the shelf creating turbulence/vortices which overspill onto the shelf. Not all of it makes it through to the Canadian side but may force it's way through in the two or three days left of peak tidal movement, after that the rotating ice should close the gap. Similarly the lighter fraction of Atl. waters is creating more turbulence along Barents shelf as it pushes east causing more melt/retreat there.

The ice loss North of GIS is from 50 days straight of sun/downslope/insane WAA.

It's been there warmest summer over the Southern CAB on record

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:31:35 AM »
Central Arctic Sea & Extent Graphs side by side.
Test to see what it looks like

So that's bad.  That's why 2020 has no chance to be above 2019.





32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:29:19 AM »
Attached

This means that in terms of ice area NSDIC in the Central Arctic 2020 is in 7th place after 2016, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2017, 2013.

How is it in 7th place?

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:21:54 AM »
I thought the CAB area was going up??

:)




34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:29:08 AM »
The crack North of Gis is rare and indicates lots of melt in the region.

But the open water North of there within the ice pack is truly AMAZING.

THESE ARE OPENINGS THAT ARE ICE FREE THAT ARE UPWARDS OF 10-30 KILOMETERS WIDE.

This is special because it indicates that ice they're actually melted out which is amazing.


According to piomas the ice North of the crack where the open water is building as of 7/15/20 was between 2-2.75M thick

Regardless this ice was likely 3M thick in early June.

Unless its ice that was near Svalbard but I doubt that

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 12:06:38 AM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

Wow  thanks for posting. 

That really puts things in perspective.

2020 is going to finish with less ice on the Atlantic/Laptev side for sure.

The CAA is going to melt out through the NW passage and somewhat even further north than that.

If 20/20 has more ice in the Beaufort than 2019 which is still way up in the air CAA will make up for it.

That leaves the Chukchi, ess, and Laptev fringes which I have no doubt will be worse than 2019.

The big question is how much of the interior pack is going to melt out?


Well its August  2nd and holes are opening up all over and in places we haven't seen in modern human history






36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:05:49 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.

I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

A lot of the ASI still qualifies as extent, but I wonder how much time can it be that way.
I am still waiting for large extent drops, even that they are not happening right now.
The melting season has not ended yet. Still around 45 days more.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 1st, 2020:
     5,717,878 km2, a drop of -38,506 km2.

Bremen graphics cut off at 15% iirc. So all of the ice it shows is counted as extent.

Extent drops will probably pick back up to around 50-60K a day for the next 4 days. 

Then the dipole pattern establishes and the Pacific ice South of 80N will quickly vanish. Thats the best chance for some century drops


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 



For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.



38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:35:35 AM »
The 12Z euro is straight awful for the ice on the Pacific side starting between hour 108-120.  Thats when a STRAIGHT LONG FETCH SOUTHERLY FLOW develops over NWNA and brings major compaction directly to the WRECKED ICE South of 80N.

This pattern establishing itself is the difference between 2020 finishing between 2019 and 2012 or setting a new record low.

Instead of a slow decline through AUGUST.  Any form of a dipole that brings the Southerly hammer into the Pacific side ACCELERATES that by melting the ice faster, bringing more heat deeper into the CAB and compacting the ice towards the Atlantic side where the ice edge isn't moving much.

If anyone wants to go back and Iook at the last 20 years of August weather.

The euro depiction from hour 120-240 is the second worst weekly pattern for the ice behind 2007.  Not counting 2012.

This pattern doesn't have to do anything but push the boulder over the cliff.

Whatever the hell cold upper level rings of air is supposed to mean or do it isn't going to stop HAMMER TIME

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:11:20 PM »
https://go.nasa.gov/3hVyJLw  Slight contrast adjustment to help 'see through' the clouds

That's UNPRECEDENTED...

It's truly amazing.  That ice was close to 3M.  Maybe over 3M thick.  And it's gone.  Melting out insitu.  Which is amazing. 

If anyone has ever seen this just North of Greenland  please post it.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:03:57 PM »
EC also has a dipole, a weak one though. Of ligger concern is a high pressure that is foreseen to set up over the Beaufort Sea. If that forecast holds we might see really big extent losses after 8/10.

It's not that weak for it revving up at the end of the first week of August.

CLICK TO ANIMATE...

Now the gfs and euro are in agreement on the large scale pattern  change.

Direct solar isolation  melt we have observed:

75-80N: as late as August  20th.

70-75N: end of August.

Even one week of what the gfs and euro show and 2019 will be smoked.


41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:04:20 PM »
So what happens next?
weatherdude will post something that proves this year is no big deal

Without a traditional dipole we have seen the ice get crushed. 

Also I can only imagine the methane clathrate stability in the Laptev and Kara is in serious question at this point. 


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:59:42 AM »
2020 has no chance to finish above 2019.  August would have to be one of the coldest in the modern record.

It's very unlikely.  Melt momentum is way worse in 2020 because of the laws of physics.

It's what happens when your entire summer torches.

What did people expect to happen???  2020 to keep losing ice at breakneck speeds until the end??

Without a "slowdown" 2020 would have crushed even 2012 by a ton.  No one expects that because the science says that wasn't likely. That kind of energy just hasnt been available this summer or any summer so far.

2019 had a warm summer 2020 had an epic summer

But we all have different opinions that's the fun of it.






43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:36:49 PM »
Looking at the difference on these two AMSR2 graphics really show how bad this storm WRECKED the ice.

Just an amazing acceleration in ice deterioration in a few days thanks to near surface water overturning and rain.

The channel 89ghz grayscale shows a massive area that went from relatively stable to near melt out.

And a lot of this is still obscured by clouds.

The thickness/melt graphic shows how much wetter the remaining ice is and more open water

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:21:40 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there.

That would expedite things but it's gone regardless.

UH AMSR2 Beaufort sea ice area is looking robust, compared with previous years. 2020 Beaufort sea ice area is on pace to finish with the most sea ice area in the data set (post 2012). Extrapolating the final area at minimum would be 200,000 square kilometers.



Its not all going to melt out

I'd go with 125,000km2 on that chart.

The thickest MYI along the Southern region by IIRC is the mcClure straight to the Parry channel will likely not melt out.

But two of the whoi bouys show bottom melt the last 40-50 days has taken place all the way to 75N along the border of the WCAB and Beaufort.

Only showing about 1.5CM of melt a day but that is only bottom  melt.

By Sept 1st about  75-100CM of bottom ice melt in the region will be enough to toast the fyi and some MYI.

My response was mostly that the flat grayish swiss cheese X1000 ice or the 35-60 percent Bremen  concentration ice the last 3 days I think is toast

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:34:38 AM »
Seriously  tho.  Click this if you want to see what the STORM DID...

WRECKED THE PACIFIC SIDE....


The second one is over the Southern Chukchi



46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:32:08 AM »
For anyone interested here is 2020 versus 2019, 2016, 2012....


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 07:15:43 AM »
The quick view of today Bremen ASI Concentration.

I think that there is almost no ASI frontier in which there is no melting going on.
Of course, Chukchi and Beaufort don't look good.
If this were the image of August 10th, I would feel more confortable. But it is the end on July.

Really the entire Pacific is in the green range. 

Just mostly covered in clouds.

Check this out. 

Its from AMSR2.

I used the 26th and  30th.

It shows three Pacific  side ice took a total beating.

Absolutely massive  change.   Also the melting graphic shows how wet the ice is.







48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 06:13:43 AM »

In general though, the current weather outlook should favour the sea ice but whether it will or not this year remains to be seen.

You said the same thing last night, and I asked you about it and you did not respond.

I’m not trying to be rude. I just want to understand what you see that I am missing.

What is it in the current weather pattern that you think favors the sea ice?

He recently made the statement that the huge losses/highly anomolous temps were only over areas with low thickness according to piomas. 

I responded asking how that is so when the Southern CAB and Atlantic side have been torched which are the only two areas where piomas had abnormally thick ice. 

I essentially said that's a pretty disingenuous statement from an intelligent poster.

Didn't get a response.

That kind of wrangling the discussion thread is not the most honorable way for a man to participate here trying to be of total integrity regardless of if they end up wrong

I might end up wrong.  Has happened a lot.


Anyways regardless of whether he responds he is right. The current weather is generally good for the ice.  Or is trending that way slowly as the anomolous heat backs off over the Eastern half of the CAB.

The cooler overcast over the Pacific side is good for slowing melt

Although it won't prevent most of that ice from melting since it's so thin now which can be inferred  through modis and amsr2 products.






The general wind pattern is currently a reverse dipole which is spreading the ice out.

The ice isn't going to move very much so only the edges get displaced into the inferno waters

While outgoing winds dampen waves within the ice pack and blow's the torching water away from the ice.

In this case the Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev are all in the exit zone of the reverse dipole.

But it' varys from day to day.



The bigger question is what is being protected?  The Pacific ice South of 80N is toast.

Some ice in the Beaufort but mostly the Western CAB will survive.

But almost all of the ice that Bremen has categorized as 35-60 percent Concentration (the greenish hues) is toast.

Thats been like the entire Pacific side South of 80 the last 3 days.  The rest of the CAB has been smoked. The Southern CAB we will find out soon how bad.

So yeah what's left in parts of the CAB will benefit from melt being slowed.

Whoi bouys show sustained bottom melt in the Beaufort at least to 75N.  They also show a quick spike in salinity the last couple days.  A sign of near surface overturning of the fresh water layer.

If that is the case the layer below it is torching.










49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:13:48 AM »
The Pacific side is going to melt out to at least 80 degrees north everywhere except for maybe the far Southern Beaufort where there's multi-year ice


Modis shows the ice has been rocked on the Pacific side.

It has the flat darkish gray look everywhere. This is the end before melt out.

I have been really busy so I haven't been able to read through this thread.

But I called it a couple days ago that if the Pacific side didn't melt immediately underneath this vortex that people would come out and claim that this year was going to finish like third or higher.


There is no chance of it finishing third or higher regardless of the weather no chance the Arctic is loaded with heat everywhere.


It is possible that 2020 will finish second if the weather is extremely favorable the rest of the way. 

A and even then it's pretty sketchy that that will happen

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 04:30:23 AM »
NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".


I think it is almost a certainty.  I don't think it will happen as fast as it did in 2012.

So expect a lot of posts saying 2020 has no chance.

The big factor will be what happens on the Atlantic side.

How much of the Eastern CAB will collapse??  How far will the ice line retreat?

How much will the CAA lose??

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