Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Frivolousz21

Pages: [1] 2 3
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 31, 2019, 08:10:18 PM »
Losses will pick up a lot for this Time of year the next 10 days

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
Its very unlikely that 2019 will finish below 2012 in extent.

I would give it a 1 percent chance.

AMSR2 SCANS USING THE 36GHZ AND 18GHZ wavelength shows the whole of the ice pack left regardless of concentration is to thick.

There is just not enough energy coming in from the sun to support melting the ice North of 80 at the level needed to beat 2012. 



3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 10, 2019, 06:02:35 AM »
In addition to the nuances associated with the different measurements, it's also important to understand the differences in the various regions of the Arctic.

The shallow peripheral seas are a completely different animal than the deep Central Basin.

We've lost 2/3 of the Arctic ice volume in the last 40 years and that leads many to the erroneous conclusion that we'll lose the rest at a similar pace.

If we analyze the Central Basin as a separate entity (as we should), the numbers don't support the near-term BOE projections that most people here are forecasting.

Measurrments in the peripheral seas and measurements in the CAB are apples and oranges if you're attempting to project future minima.


This I completely agree with.

However 2011 got really close. 

But I agree that this downward trajectory in the summer months isn't going to just come to and open ocean abruptly.

However we are getting close to having ideal conditions come together to cause the Arctic to almost melt out or melt out at least once and then it will probably recover backed up above a melting out event for a while.




We need the Arctic like Area North of 60 degrees do you warm up a lot more to wear spring snow cover on land is gone basically by mid-may.

And show cover on the ice starts to really melt around that time.  Right now snowfall lost any weight spring seems to have started to hit a wall.


My point is ice loss before the summer solstice it's probably like next to nothing North of 73-75 degrees.

Like look at the ESS it's been basically gone for like 2 weeks maybe 3.

But the swirls left and that gooey looking stuff on satellite still prevented the very very end and didn't allow the ess2 exploding with heat to then drive that heat into the central cab.

finally now be ESL started to warm up a little bit but it's pretty much over now.



4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 05, 2019, 04:23:23 AM »
Please post Umizoomi new sources as you guys can anything from Twitter that comes from professor box is invaluable

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 04:49:37 PM »

To me it looks like this year's falling even further behind 2012 in terms of finishing with the lowest extent on record. 

Volume may end up being the lowest on record although I believe that should go to 2011 I don't think 2011 with mottled correctly when you look at the cryostat data it shows that 2011 was pulverized.


First off I am going to attach two graphics. 

One of them is around 75 North right on the border of the Beaufort and the Canadian basin about 150KM North of the Parry Channel region.

The other it is about 73.5 North in the middle of the Beaufort sea.

They tell a story that shows why melting the Western CAB is very hard.

You can see that the further north ITP shows this recent warm spell didn't intrude there.

While just SW of there it came hard.

This has to do with the easterly wind component and the thickness of the ice that's coming out of the cab.

so at this point to me it's very clear that the Western cab is not going to be melted like 2012 was.

the Atlantic side it's also clearly not going to retreat as far as it did in 2012. 

The CAA has been getting bombarded for a while almost relentlessly warmth and yet the northern two-thirds is still full of ice.  This isn't as much due to the late start their versus say other year where it melted further.

This is likely due to their being above-normal snow cover there heading into this season.

Satellite scans show that around at at North rim the ice inside of the area towards the pole everywhere is more solid and s thicker than in 2012.

So we get into the middle and end of August melting will be stuck at the very edges and compassion will be harder to come by versus a year for the ice is thiner and can be crushed together more easily.

The only way to overcome this would be a traditional dipole that really stuck in place through the end of the melt season. 

That's not happening.


I will say on a side note that there is almost no snow right now anywhere in the northern hemisphere and it shows in the weather in the Heights in the pressures very subtle but it's very clear.


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:09:25 PM »
This was also right when an amazing event took place.

For 3 maybe 4 days.  We saw record warmth with sunny skies press off the NA land area.  And cross over still EPIC level ssts in the Beaufort.  Combined with very warm temps coming off the land warm NW CAA.

The MYI where 3-4M thick ice resided in the far Western CAB was pulverised.


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 01:00:33 PM »
The ice was definitely worse in 2012 at this point.

2012 had very low snow depth and it was crushed off the ice in the second week of June for the most part.

That gave 2012 a huge jump.  Also 2011 had the worst ice in the fall so far on record.

It's not surprising the 2019 CAB ice is healthier than 2012 at this point.

Also look at the CAA not even close.





8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 31, 2019, 12:47:09 PM »
The model showed snow over SE GIS where a promice Station reported temperatures of 5.42C.


A little off.


9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:04:10 AM »
I have already simply proven the ice was already almost about to mass melt before the GAC.

So why isn't this accepted?

This isn't the better animation I posted before.

But here is July 22nd 2012 and August 4th 2012.

Its clear the ice already collapsed before the GAC.

The ice on the August 4th image is almost transparent.

That's because to this scanning frequency its really thin and the ocean below is being picked up.

This tells us the ice was already about to melt.

Erase the GAC and the entire Pacific side melts anyways

There seems to be this romantic novelty about the impact of the GAC.



10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 06:33:05 AM »
That slushy swirling ice in the ESS has really slowed things up.

That night all melt out.

But it's preventing the ESS from being a staging point to crush the CAB.
What are you talking about? The ESS has melted out faster than ever before. "Slowed things up" is still FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE so I think your verbiage here is silly and wrong. And if you have been paying attention to forecasts / actual weather, the CAB just took a bullet and it was completely independent of what is happening in the ESS (originating via North America / the CAA). So ultimately your statement here is doubly untrue.

(I don't mean to come across as antagonistic here and I genuinely enjoy your posts, this is just my opinion).

That doesn't matter.

It needs to be clear blue open water by now and it's not.

There is no chance for a big SST build up in the ESS.

And melt out is subjective.

I bet there will be swirls of ice well after the satellites say it's ice free.

And I bet SSTS don't do bleep because of it.


11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:32:08 PM »
All of that precip over SE Greenland has to be rain the freeze level is close to 3000M.

I hope that DMI model doesn't record it as snow.  There is no way.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 04:01:54 PM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.



Umm....Keywords are I know the sun don't set.

Will you post the Boston graphic so we can count how many hours there literally is no solar Insolation.

That's a bad comparison

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 03:52:59 PM »
The incoming weather pattern is amazing.  OMG it's EXCITING.

The pattern brings a devestating combination of weather, climate, and geological processes.

That are currently expected to ramp up and wind down over roughly a 10 day period.

Peaking over roughly 6-7 days.


1.  MASSIVE amounts of solar insolation.  This is absolutely off the charts.  Models show a massive ridge developing over the next 48 hours over the Canadian basin.  This ridge over the Arctic will be centered over the Canadian basin especially Western Canadian basin and it is absolutely a monster. 

SOLAR INSOLATION AT THE NORTH POLE IS STILL ABOUT 460W/m2 and it drops to around 430W/M2 by August 1st and 400W/M2 around the 7th of August.

So this is really the very end of any impact solar insolation is going to have on this season directly in the Canadian basin.

And as we are currently riding melt momentum to maintain progressing as the most destructive melt season in modern human record keeping.

The weather has decided to ABRUPTLY cancel the mostly cloudy atmospherically benign/good for ice pattern and REPLACE it with a MONSTER DIPOLE

This isn't some 4-7 day slow change.   Where yeah the mass fields look good for melt but the cold air takes forever to scour out or the high pressure ridges are dirty and low clouds/fog run rampant.

No this EXPLOSION OF POWER is

BEYOND NUCLEAR FISSION
BEYOND NUCLEAR FUSION
BEYOND SUPERNOVA EXPLOSION

NO THIS IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OG BIG BANG AND MULTIVERSE BIG BANG.


2.  SSTS ARE  NEAR RECORD, AT RECORDS, AND MOSTLY ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY ALL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AT LARGE.

ENUF SAID...

3.  THE LONG FETCH KING KONG BUNDY'S HUGE BALL SACK OF HEAT SMASHING IT ALL!


WE COULD TAKE A BIG LEAD ON 2012 THEN 2012 WILL WILL PLAY CATCHUP ONCE THE GAC HITS.

ANYWAYS...


I SAID THAT IS WHAT YOU NEEDED TO GET A NEW RECORD JONALU TO CHANCE THIS IS PRETTY FREAKING EXCITING AS THIS IS A BEAST PATTERN CHANGE

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 09:43:55 PM »
My animation sucks..

But the euro and gfs now go straight back to ridging/insert insane DIPOLE anomaly.

If the 12Z EURO was correct VERBATIM.   

I NO IT WON'T BE BUT I'M SAYING YOU KNOW IN A FANTASY WORLD IF IT WAS CORRECT VERBATIM OH MY GOD THAT WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY EPIC

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:49:16 AM »
That is a huge change for only 16 days.


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:12:13 AM »
I have great news for those who want a new record low. 

The Great Arctic Cyclone gets too much credit where they big drop in 2012.

Hello okay animation showing every 3 days from July 15th 2012 until August 8th 2012.  And you can clearly see that the Pacific side in 2012 slowly decayed leading up to The Great Arctic cyclone by the time the GAC happened entire Pacific side was already almost melted out.

it seems that the slightly above-average drink cyclone in Late July is what prep the ice.

it's pretty clear that 90 + percent of the ice loss in 2012 would have happened even if the GAC never happened.

I think this is interesting because the models continue to trim deeper and stronger with the Cyclone over the next two weeks.

And if we could get a sub 990mb Cyclone with a decent high pressure gradient we could probably do the same thing happened over the laptev, ess and Western Cab.




17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 04:15:40 PM »
At least at 74N

Some decent heat is going into the upper ocean of the Beaufort.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 08:58:25 PM »
The talk of this BOE is absurd.

Just this past April there was a large area of 3-4M+ ice.

In 201 we saw the CAB get decimated but at least in the interior CAB it has completely recovered.

Melting out ice that thick is going to be impossible for one summer.

A fundemental change will have to take place for the Arctic to melt out.


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 03:27:27 AM »
It's highly unlikely that we see the weather forecasts bomb on the pattern change.

There are many factors backing this happening.

I know that this news can be disappointing.  But this is how this works.

Even if there isn't a new record this year it will end up a top 3 melt season and volume loss could end up as a new record even if Extent isn't.

Area has no chance to be a new record.

I have been at this a long time and then disdain and snide remarks by people emotionally invested in a new record is pretty sad.


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 06:15:44 PM »
I think the weather would have to return to not only ridging but a dipole anomaly by no later than July 25th to have a shot at the record.

It just doesn't look like that is happening.

But I guess you never know.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:38:45 PM »
You guys are completely overestimating how hard it is for the ice in the cab to melt north of 80 degrees north.

We haven't had that peak Insolation hit the CAB

A new record is unlikely.





22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 01:09:35 PM »

The ESS is collapsing is at its very end now.

It's really amazing to see on satellite you can see the ice just crushed. 

It's got that Flat Dark rubbly look.  Usually when ice reaches a half a meter stick or less it reaches that point.

you can see bigger loads mixed in with that but right now the ESS is being completely decimated bye Zeus level Heat.

and in a few days a decent lie powerful Vortex is going to park its ass over the ESS.


We might see a little bit of a weaker slower ending to the ESS similar to the great article Cyclone of 2012.

either way in the ESS is gone in this world text coming in is going to bring Warm southerly Winds to the Western Cab.

It is likely by July 16th to 17th that 2019 might separate itself from the pack is the lowest by quite a bit if we see a collapse of the ESS and parts of the Western Cab.


Stay tuned for more drama and action next time on frivolous Channel 5.


Most of the ESS is over 3 degrees Celsius at the surface.

you can see the Dome of heat pressing end there's enough wind to create mixing this is absolutely treacherous for the ESS.


3 degrees Celsius is enough to melt 10 cm of ice a day off the top.


Not only that with the decent winds and already warm sea surface temperatures in the area there is bottom. Going on as well.

we really could see the ESS completely collapsed over the next week I'm talking like a half a million square kilometers of extent maybe up to a million.


I don't know this isn't like The Great Arctic cyclone but the heat that's in the ice and heat that is around the ice is unprecedented so maybe this week or Vortex will be enough to stir things up to cause some collapse.

2019 is going to come very close to a new record.


We have to remember all the snow on the ice has been melted off there is nowhere that the Albedo isn't down to Bare ice level.


so to end this post if we do see the collapse of the ESS in the next few days all bets are off

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:43:03 AM »
There is a couple things so far that say a new record low minimum is unlikely.


1.  The CAA in 2012 almost entirely melted out.

This summer we are not going to come anywhere near that.

While the CAA has recently seen solid melting conditions.  the models are showing a return to cloudy and cool conditions for at least part of next week if not all of it.

in the long-range the models diverge on whether or not we are going to see a southerly warm sunny pattern return there or not

even if we do it still probably won't be enough to bring us within a hundred thousand of 2012 extent wise in the CAA.

Its likely 2019 finishes at least 150K higher in extent than 2012.  Maybe more.

2.  The Beaufort/SW CAB is going to be a major road block.  2012 was much warmer in that region than 2019 so far and through July 28th.

Then around the 28th of July with a pool of raging hot SSTs already. A rare set up prior to the "GAC" brought enormous heat to the ice in the beaufort/WCAB.

Large floes that were 3-4M thick at the end of winter melted out by seasons end because of this.

Between the 29th and 4th of August we saw increadible WAA.

The top image is June 1-July 28 2012.  We can see the CAB/Beaufort we're hit hard

The next image is the 29th-4th of August.

The scale of the second image was increased to fit the extreme anomalies.


I don't see anything so far that would indicate 2019 will see this kind of melt in the WCAB.

I think 2019 finishes second to 2012.


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 10, 2019, 12:02:43 AM »
Oh and I haven't really seen anyone talking about the MASSIVE PUSH OF HEAT the next few days that settles into the CAB.







25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 11:53:31 PM »
Come on guys posts about the 384 hour GFS?

Also no year had "wall to wall" ridging.

It seems like quite a few active members here weren't around for 2012 or didnt follow the weather very closely.


2012 first two weeks of June  very sunny dipole for the most part.

Then a cloudy cool vortex took over from the 13/14th to the 26th.

Then the 27th of June saw a huge ridge blowing up over the CAB with major WAA from NA. 

A dipole anomaly ran the show from the 29th until the 10th.  The 11th was a transition day a strong vortex was expanding in size and strength while moving from the laptev region on the 11th towards the pole by the 12th and well into the CAB by the 13th and it expanded and rotated over 3/4th Arctic basin all the way until the 22nd/23rd.

Then things warmed up going into August.

Also the end of sunny skies in 2012 was the 11/12th of JULY.  LIKE THAT WAS IT.  IT WAS WALL TO WALL CLOUDS the rest of July.


The reason 2012 smashed the record was mostly because the lack of snow cover on the Arctic sea ice going into the melt season.

This is/wasa huge deal for any season to have major melt besides warmth.



I haven't seen the data for 2019 for what snow depth was at the end of May.

But I bet it was deeper than 2011 and 2012 in many areas.

However 2019 has made up for that with record level surface warmth.





Anyways please stop saying nonsense like:

It's getting cloudier so that gives 2012 an l the advantage.  Considering 2012 wasn't all that sunny before they 12th and after the 12th it was wall to wall clouds....


Also....

A more vortex laden pattern with a more neutral AO is giving 2012 an advantage is total nonsense.

I attached images below of 2012s turn in July. 


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:59:53 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 8th, 2019:
     8,135,012 km2, a century drop of -150,362 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).


I remember about a month ago now maybe a couple guys from the sea ice area/extent thread called me out saying they didn't want my hyperbole mucking things up.



Uh huh.   


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 06:02:01 AM »
Told ya all.



Never underestimate or ignore surface temperatures.

They are the end all be all. 

2019 might not finish the lowest but it will be close. 

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 09:03:43 PM »
The 12z euro breaks the ridge down and has a slightly cool cyclone over the Pacific side.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 06:17:42 AM »
The sun has been crushing the Canadian basin.  before that it was hitting the Atlantic side for a little bit and before that it was crushing the Pacific side especially the East Siberian sea very hard


30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:35:42 AM »
Probably won't happen but my God.


Bye bye Arctic ice.


All the ice South of 85N might melt out this year.

Except near Salvbard

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:08:22 AM »
The ice looks like shit.


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 09:15:05 AM »
If we are being honest the only thing Michael Hauber has proven is that he cares a lot more about "OPTICS" than he does about the environment or in this case three cryosphe.





The mind set of SOMEONE who DEMONSTRATES that they see a DIPOLE anomaly as better for the ice than a REVERSE DIPOLE that is ridge DOMINANT so it brings great heat from the Eurasian interior and bombards it poleward past the KONTENENTIAL SHELF but does not PENETRATE into the CAB leaving the only important ICE left well PROTECTED.



This guy Michael Hauber cares so much about "OPTICS" that IN HIS MIND A DIPOLE ANOMALY IS BETTER FOR THE ICE THAN A REVERSE DIPOLE BECAUSE MYI IS HARDER TO MELT BUT THE FYI MIGHT SURVIVE LONGER NOW???

WHILE THE MYI WHICH WAS LIKELY SEEING ALMOST NO MELT IS NOW GOING TO SEE SUNSTAINSIAL MELT.

JUST GOING OFF SO FAR AND THE DATA/FORECASTS WE HAVE THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL COST THE MYI 25 PERCECT OF IT'S THICKNESS MINIMUM.   BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT OR MORE.


But in Michael Haubers mind now there is a chance SOME/MORE FYI survives????


Which COULD PREVENT A NEW RECORD LOW IN EXTENT/AREA OR EVEN PREVENT A TOP 3 FINISH?

AT THE EXPENSE OF THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE MYI.

SO THIS MIND VALUES THERE NOT BEING A NEW



TWO DIMENSIONAL


 RECORD LOW AS BETTER FOR THE ARCTIC SEA ICE WHILE LOSING A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF MYI...

VERSUS A NEW RECORD LOW BUT THE MYI STAYS WELL PROTECTED POTENTIALLY SOMETHING TO BUILD ON.



THOSE TWO DIMENSIONAL OPTICS CAN REALLY MESS WITH A MAN.





Ok, I am done personally addressing Michael Hauber.  My apologies.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 08:54:25 AM »
So let is all understand what Michael Hauber is saying folks...

The pattern has shifted from a reverse dipole anomaly that was high pressure dominated and brought big time HEAT/SUN to large areas of EASY TO MELT OUT FIRST YEAR ICE.

while protecting the last vestiges of the CRITICALLY IMPORTANT MULTI-YEAR ICE with persistent cloudy, cool, and at times snowy conditions.

Now we are settling into a dipole anomaly pattern that has already cleared out 75% of the CLOUD COVER IN THE CAB WHERE ALL OF THE MULTI-YEAR ICE IS. 

Visible satellite imagry shows the last AREA OF SNOW COVERED ICE(WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO BE MYI) HAS MELTED.

NOW THE WEATHER MODELS FOR THE FORSEABLE FUTURE INUNDATE THE CAB, BEAUFORT, AND CAA WITH WARMTH, RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SUN.  WHILE KEEPING A PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC OCEAN GENERAL WIND REGIME WHICH....



FLUSHES THE MYI IN THE CAB DOWN THE FRAM TOILET

PUSHES RECORD WARM BERING/CHUCHKI/CONTENENTIAL SHELF WATERS TOWARDS THE ICE PACK AND ESS.

THIS ALSO PUSHES BEAUFORT ICE POLEWARD INCREASING HEAT TRANSFER TO THAT ICE AND OPENING UP MORE WATER AREA TO HOLD/TRANSFER MORR HEAT TO THE NEARBY MYI

THIS ALSO DISPERSES ICE TOWARDS THE LAPTEV SEA WHERE SSTS IN THE 4-8C RANGE AWAIT THAT ICE. 


THIS ALSO BRINGS WAA AND SUNNY SKIES TO THE CAA WHICH UP UNTIL NOW WAS ALSO PROTECTED.  IN FACT THERE IS/WAS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE N/NE CAA.  THAT IS VANISHING LIKE A FART IN THE WIND.

JUST LIKE THE MYI HAS STARTED TOO AS WELL.



So how on Earth is this dipole anomaly pattern better than the one I that protected this ice all June?


Ill hang up and listen


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 01:02:43 AM »
The entire CAA appears to be melting?


that's from snow on top of the ice melting and the water being essentially lost last trapped in the top of the ice.

Eventually as the structural integrity of the ice fails.

Those lakes slash slawski pools of water on top of the ice cold rain and what will be will be more of a benign grayish color ice like the rest of the Arctic.

This happening now it's actually pretty late compared to other years that the CAA mostly melted out.

If I recall correctly and years like 2007 maybe 2008 2010-2011 and 2012 this process took place in late May or early June.

we saw some of this happened about a month ago but it appears that the process stopped or actually some of that snow repros or got a fresh layer.

Now that is not going to reverse until the fall.


The main reason it's so hard to melt out the CAA channels is because even though they're surrounded by land mass they are located between 72 and 80 North.


When you were or above 75 degrees north these solarmount season is really only from about June 1st until maybe August 15th but probably really a little bit earlier than that.


The ideal way to melt out the CAA. 

Would be a strong blast near record or record warm over for northern Canada in the last 10 days of May that decimates the northern Canadian snow cover and can bring above freezing temperatures all the way into the north central CAA.

If this happens and can trigger the abrupt albedo drop at the surface what name the snowpack.

Say because of that the albedo drops from like . 85-.90 to .65-.70.

If you follow that with a large ridge of high pressure typically in the dipole pattern that combination can lead to early in that area abruptly happening bursted how long it would normally take for solar insolation alone that time of year to cause the albedo drop.

We have seen in early June over the Arctic basin it takes sometimes 5 to 7 days straight sunny skies to cause the satellite to pick up the wet surface versus the previous dry surface.

probably because when that pattern starts that he has to go into not only melting the surface but it also partially gets trapped in the heating the air around it. 


This is why albedo is everything.

Anyways the CAA this summer most specifically the Northwest passage that goes to resolute Canada would need an historically warm July to have any chance of melting out.

It's very unlikely we see it melting out this summer. 


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 06:23:11 AM »
The CAA is finally starting to seriously warm up.

At Resolute the 00Z sounding showed 10C temps and 6C DPs.

Obviously that is over land and there is probably inversions near the coast at different times.

But it still stands to be noticed that the airmass in place is still getting warmer.

And sunny skies will continue to build on this region.

Someone said the gfs is weaker with the dipol and it is.

Infact the entire flow over the NH gets slow and flat.

Temperature contrasts get very weak.  There just isn't much cold air out there the next 10 days and essentially no where besides GIS with a high albedo left.

These "benign" conditions will still cause melt. 

Even in the GFS long range There is no cold pools or vortexs of any substantial matter in the Arctic basin.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 11:10:58 PM »
In roughly 7-10 days don't be surprised if 2019 is lowest in area, extent, and volume.

The weather sets up to put a huge dent in the chuchki and ESS.

The Hudson Bay gets smoked the next 4 days with very humid and probably warm rainy conditions.

The CAA is clearing out and warming up.  So is the CAB and beaufort.

Both the ESS and Laptec finally face semi dispersive winds with very very warm water being sloshed into the ice.

It's not the most perfect dipole anomaly but it will be more than adequate thanks to fantastic building during June to put the hammer down

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:09:18 PM »
Decimation
 


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:00:22 PM »
EC 12z ensemble is just brutal for the next 5 days. The heat is just walking around the Arctic. CAA and Chukchi sea should take a major hit.

EC 12z op has some more cyclonic activity in the later range which might be the only hope for the Arctic to put some brake at this melting season and prevent a new record low in September. At least, we have to look for some good signs even if it is far out.

It is brutal.

Even with a bit of cyclonic activity its still boiling all over every the Russian shelf where it's to late anyways.

The CAA and CAB are going to get hammered.

The CAA and Beaufort really get crushed and the Beaufort is already boiling

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 06:19:56 PM »
The 12z gfs drops a sizeable but weak low pressure system into the CAB around day 7.

This would finally bring some relief to the basin.


Edit.  It quickly dies in the far Southern CAB.

The earlier gfs runs did this.

But the ensembles kept the dipole going.

We'll see.  The models have been doing this for almost 2 weeks before dropping/curtailing it as we get closer.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 05:46:11 PM »
Here is an update of 2012 vs 2019 temps for June.


41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 06:45:24 AM »
The 00Z GFS is straight murderous for the ice.

Freaking nasty dipole anomaly.

1. The CAA also gets smoked.  Tons of sunshine coming to the CAA

2.  The CAB gets nailed as well.  We have already begun to see the CAB clear out the last 24-48 hours and albedo dropping in response.

A warm Southerly flow will help push the surface melt in the CAB as the weather transitions to a more lighter wind anticyclonic flow with tons of sun.

By the beginning of next week surface melting will be happening over large parts of the CAB.

3.  The Beaufort region is about to finally clear out under a budding ridge by this weekend.  On top of that variations of WAA will be interspersed as well.

This is huge for what happens at the minimum.

4.  The Chuchki and ESS will get bombarded by warm moist Southerly winds long fetching those insane SSTs into the Pacific side ice.

Expect losses in the ESS to pick up big time.

And the Chuchki to start disentigrating.

5.  The entire flow becomes Pacific to Atlantic with the Fram and Barents getting ice shoved into their areas = death for ice.






42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 02:51:02 AM »
One of those areas where extent increase is counter productive to final extent. However, it could be considered fortunate since it's shielding the ocean from absorbing more heat, which might help future ice through reduction of oceanic heat content and any negative effects that a more exposed barents has on intrusive jet-stream behavior?

No that is so little it doesn't matter.

The only thing the barents having ice still does is creates an illusion for some posters here who don't want to see how bad things are unfolding.

Any ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is a grave yard.

Anther reason some posters can't see how bad things are is we haven't had any major cyclones to break up the ice that has been melting in "relative calmness.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 03:56:02 PM »
The GFS now transitions to an Arctic dipole anomaly. 

The CAA is about to clear out and get hammered as well.  The Southern 1/3rd of the CAB is also forecasted to get hit hard.



44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 02:00:34 AM »
This bullshit about June not being the most important month is just embarrassing.

Whatever.  Going to look stupid come August.



Also anyone who thinks the ice isn't heading into July in the worst shape we have ever seen it overall is clueless.

I'm sorry for the hard line language but there should be an intellectual integrity here but whatever.

As soon June 15th 2019 THIS YEAR WAS SECOND LOWEST VOLUME ON RECORD.

SINCE JUNE 15TH:

2012 VERSUS 2019.

NOT EVEN CLOSE.


A lot of times BBR can really go nuts with the hyperbole.  Way more than myself and others.  But his claims of 2019 being the worse off are dead on.

The only difference is the Western CAB and parts of the CAA in 2012 got hit good in a warm sunbath by now.

This year the ESS region has taken a bath in the heat.

Half of the Arctic is getting pulverized with solar max insolation and highly anomolous mid level temps.




45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 25, 2019, 05:23:02 PM »
2019 is certainly still in the running for a top 2 finish (+/- 1), with the two main reasons besides the relentless weather:
Low area inside the Inner Basin (courtesy of Wipneus).
Extreme export into the Atlantic throughout the season, which has taken a lot of the MYI - shown in lighter shades on Ascat - out of the basin (courtesy of A-Team in the Test Space thread). The FYI has now reached the North Pole.

Yes, it is still in the running, but could also finish 6th or lower.  Looking back at recent years, the sea ice minimum is determined largely by the melt occurring after the solstice.  There appears to be no correlation between the melt that has occurred from the maximum to the solstice and the ensuing minimum.  The weather from now until the autumnal equinox will be the decider.
..

It is of course true that the final result will be based upon melt in the 2nd half of the season.

But to ignore the advantages 2019 has entering the 2nd half would be misleading. It would take a miraculous weather distribution to curb the current momentum and finish outside the top 5.

The installed base of ocean heat, open water and low thickness combined with the present forecast is a huge head start.

Not really.  Compared to recent years, the melt over the first half of the season is fairly average.  This season got off to a fast start, with one of the highest 30-day melts in the satellite era (second to 1997).  However, that rate has curtailed over the past 60 days, such that the current trend is on the low side (only two years since the 2007 low have been less).  Some have contributed that to the thicker ice behind more difficult to melt.  Sea ice extent is currently 6th lowest at NSIDC, and if the pace continues, would finish 8th.  I think that weather conditions would need to deteriorate further to finish in the top 5 (at least in the NSIDC data set).

You must be new here.


This analysis is total garbage.

Sorry not trying to be rude.

WIND DISPERSION

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 25, 2019, 03:57:32 PM »
I think it has no chance.

5th or 6th IMO

In what criteria?

Thats almost impossible at this point.

The weather would have to abruptly go to cloudy and cold and not change back.


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 23, 2019, 08:52:00 PM »
The 12Z euro and to a lesser degree the gfs keep the ridging going.

Not the most perfect orientation.

But would be really bad

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 23, 2019, 06:18:47 AM »
I don't think it should be too surprising that we're losing area/extent only at a moderate pace. The Beaufort-Chukchi front opened early, was well retreated and most of the heat has been hitting places where the ice is thicker and that takes time to melt through and break up. The Beaufort sector will still melt out in July (as it did last year in cloudy and cooler conditions) and now it appears there will be a significant portion of the ESS-Laptev and part of the CAB that will follow.

The ess/laptev/chuchki/pacific side CAB has really taken a beating.

If there isn't a break in the ridging the pole could be ice free this September.


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 04:40:34 PM »
Once again at Ostrov.

Nearly 11C DPs on a SSE wind at 20KTs.

That's crazy bad.

With all of the talk on next week. 

Let's not overlook a huge heatwave and ridge quickly building over the Pacific 1/2 of the Arctic.






50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 11:44:35 PM »
It's really hard for me to understand how we don't have many Moorings on the Russian side continental shelf.


It's so shallow there's almost no turbulence it's almost never Disturbed.


The lack there of is ridiculous.


Pages: [1] 2 3