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Messages - Frivolousz21

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 13, 2019, 03:16:26 AM »
I haven't followed any of this so bear with me if this is a wrong conclusion.

But it looks like the Euro and the global forecasting system.  I'm using talk to text that's why I didn't just say GFS because sometimes it doesn't come out right.


Anyways both of them at least on their runs today in about 48 to 60 hours start essentially a hemispheric wide pattern change and the upper latitudes.

You can see not just high pressure blowing up in around the Beaufort sea.

But the huge banana high pressure structure becomes evident.  With the cut-off vortex just south of Greenland and over Eastern Canada.

The way the euro depicts this straight nasty.

But both models are now onto this.


Infact the GEM and UKMET is going down the same path.


For those who are not aware:


Meteorology speaking this setup is essentially the Holy Grail of having a record-setting Arctic sea ice loss during the summer.

Solar energy right now is booming over the arctic.  The best way to set up things for huge loses of sea ice is sprawling upper level atmospheric ridges of high pressure that exist from top down.

This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies. 

We have never had a May 20-30th GARGANTUAN RIDGE that preconditioned the ice for huge June and July loses.


Stay tuned

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 08, 2019, 05:17:36 AM »
Unless there is a legit Arctic dipole anomaly with a negative NOA after May 15th through June.

what's happening now just won't cut it if you're looking for records without that.


I don't know if we can say we are due.

But we are due.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2018, 04:03:42 PM »
Given the unprecedented event taking shape I cant believe this forum is dead.

We might see extent losses im early October.

I cant find anything like this in the archives.

I mean not even close.


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:15:30 AM »
The models say the freeze up will crawl along. 

Literally crawl along.

The first week of August the ice will barely be above right now.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 23, 2018, 10:51:57 AM »
The ESS will likely melt out completely or very close.

The models show a mostly cyclonic flow developing the next week.

This will really eat at the weakest ice from the Beaufort to ESS because warm enough air will being pulled in won't really allow the water to vent much heat.

With so much open water the warm water will get sloshed a lot helping mix up heat through the broken ice.

It's impossible to tell but the ESS and Chuckie regions could fall off enough for a top 5 finish.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 12:11:44 AM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

They won't collapse immediately, I think, but there should be enough time until the minimum for a lot of ice to melt. Here's the ECMWF forecast for the coming days, plenty of high pressure on the Siberian side (and I've added cute white arrows to show which way the wind will be blowing wrt the ice north of Greenland):


I definitely should have said over the next month.

But the current set up is lethal in those regions.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 06, 2018, 09:18:57 PM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 05, 2018, 08:41:45 PM »
You can see the surface changes here.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 05, 2018, 08:37:25 PM »
Quote
so awesome. 2-3 more days of wind blowing the ice away from the coast
It looks like the lift-off north of Greenland will continue a few more days at least as a slowly drifing atmospheric pattern sets up, which will give rise to a consistent ice drift (towards the Bering Strait) unlike the chaotic winds back to June 1st and earlier.

To be clear, this is neither bottom nor top melt, just winds blowing the icepack off the coast, creating some open water and dispersed floes. It is a bit unusual to see this in the Lincoln Sea which is one of the last hold-outs of thick ice. August 5th is available at WorldView Aqua, putting it one day ahead of the algorithmic products.

Quote
Mercator is confusing without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection
Right, there are serious design errors at that site involving shifting color scales. Even if they are included, comparative graphics can still be misleading.

Actually there has been tremendous melt going on there.

The ice there from day 1-of this new pattern immediately went from dryish to bottom out albedo.

Because that area had some sun with huge WAA. Then days of fog under a very warm airmass.


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 07:43:40 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

clear skies?

for me this is not clear skies until someone is able to explain the definition of clear skies that differs from "cloud free" that evades me.

the image is from today and it has been that way for a long time while cloud free spots change on a daily basis of course

Not sure where that image is from but it's not accurate.

This is the last three days.  Anywhere with a red or orangish red tint is ice.  And or snow.

This is about as could free as it gets.  There is fog in the cab thanks to tremendous WAA but for August this is impressive.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 07:45:51 AM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 05:34:31 AM »
Most of the CAB is very deep.

It will take an amazing change to cause it to be ice free in winter.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 07:50:12 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 30, 2018, 01:04:43 AM »
Yes I'm cherry picking but the gfs after the initial thrust of heat reforms a Siberian positive dipole.


This would be a perfect storm of events to cripple the laptev/CAB Atlantic front and finish the ESS off.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 30, 2018, 12:43:57 AM »
The NEATL is exploding in near surface oceanic heat.

This will happen all the way to the ice edge as the weather progresses.

If this forecast holds its not overstating it that the laptev region could be crippled all the way towards 85N.

Ice thickness about 1M or less even this late can vanish under a moisture laden WAA + Warm sst + sun.




Man the models are showing incredible heat and moisture coming at the arctic from Eurasia and the NE ATL.

Its more then I recall ever seeing.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 08:11:30 AM »
Hell yeah solar can still wreck.

Above 400w/m2.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 02:39:23 AM »
Bremen amsr2 images are going to be decently clear the next 3-4 days.

We will get a great snapshot of the ice pack.

It appears a similar size area of solid contiguous flows for the most part comparable to 2007, 2015, 2016, and 2017 is protected well.

Because of the inherently thin ice over the Pacific side its clear heat has penetrated above and below the ice.  Once  that large area abruptly opened up with miles and miles of open water, between large groups of floes waves and some form of convective overturning allowed solid mixing of heat into the upper ocean layer.

If heat only penetrates a few meters its all the same.

Every clear moment with the surface above -1c saw a proportionate level of warming and melting of ice comparative to the ambient temperature.

The combo of fog, sun, and high vapor content is lethal.

A surge of moisture rocked the Pacific side and it collapsed in one week.

Now waves will be overturning and crushing ice floes.

Game over.

Ice loss will slow a bit from fresh cold water around the ice.

But the sun is returning with a massive thermal seasonal peak of heat from the NA continent and NPAC.

Also



EPIC HEAT IS ROCKING THE BARENTS THEN MODELS SHOW A LONG WIND FETCH + SUN  OVER THE ATLANTIC SIDE.

THIS WILL CRIPPLE THE ICE NEAR THE LAPTEV AND LOSOMOV RIDGE UP TOWARDS THE POLE AND NE lincoln sea.

A downslope wind off GIS parallel to the east coast of gis is brutal to the ice along the Atlantic edge.


THE WIND + solar input will prevent THE WARM WATER COMING NORTH FROM NATURALLY MIXING DOWN.

THE FRICTION FROM WIND ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE CURRENT TO BE MOVING TO FAST TO MIX UNDER THE COLD POOL.

THE HEAT WILL ESSENTIALLY ROLL OVER THE COLD POOL PUSHING IT BACK TOWARDS THE ICE PACK.

EVERY INCH OF WATER SURFACE AREA WARM WATER INTRUDES TOWARDS THE POLE WITH A BACKED LONG FETCH ALL THE WAY TO SCANDINAVIA BLOWING OVER ALREADY HISTORICALLY WARM WATER COULD BE HISTORICAL.

The shitty ice is clear on jaxa. Can't wait to see modis and amsr2-the next 6 hours.


The steady dipole brings sun but creates a dry air dome.

This volatile anomalous pattern is cloudy but brings epic moisture laden surface warmth.

WAA with fog and surface few points around 33-34C is ice ending boom.

The only other ice crippler like that is an epic direct waa scheme from land surface heating.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 27, 2018, 08:18:18 PM »
Thats pretty thin going into May.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 27, 2018, 06:11:28 AM »
No that is very aligned with the last cryosat reading of where the thinnest ice was.

Amsr2 also confirms this.

There was a huge area of ice that only refroze to 1-1.5M over the Pacific side of the arctic.

The weather has been no where near bad enough historically for that area to be this disintegrated this summer.

If we do see a dipole anomaly generally the next two weeks.

A huge chunk of blue ocean is opening up


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 26, 2018, 10:52:51 PM »
The gfs is pretty nasty.

Still plenty of solar the next 2-3 weeks to really dent things. 


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 06, 2018, 06:51:45 AM »
Modis and Bremen amsr2 graphics show parts of the chuchki and ESS getting smoked.

It extends further North but visible is obscured by clouds and amsr is obscured by higher clouds with frozen vapor.

If my back of the envelope math is right.

Having 2-4C surface temps with 20-30km winds not even accounting for insolation can melt upwards of 10-15cm a day off the top.

If the dews are also 1-2C with Smoke and decent insolation.

Incredible melting can really go nuts because the sub surface will also see a massive influx of heat.

Even in a couple days this massive heat intrusion could leave the subsurface a degree or two warmer than before.

0 to 0.5c sub surface water in low psi conditions is essentially 2c Above the freezing point

Also the ESS is still shallow almost all of the heat dumped into the sub surface will go to melting the ice or warming the sea bed.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 05, 2018, 06:13:13 AM »
Omg the ESS shows a huge surface change from just a half day of supertorch.


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 03, 2018, 07:55:19 AM »
One thing is for sure.

I can't recall a blast of heat ever this intense actually exploding over an area of arctic ice as large as this one is expected to encompass.

The models are showing very strong well mixed winds vertically stacked over a long fetch for 36-60 hours over parts of the Pacific side. 

This is going to bring a period of 2-4C surface temps over the ESS, chuchki, and Beaufort.

With even warmer surface temps of 4c+ grazing the edges.

This will allow tremendous heat to reach the ice surface.  Pending clouds and rain.  Melt rates are going to jump into the 5-10cm/day range.

And expect huge drops in extent and area because the entire ESS shoreline is going to see open water explode into existence.  We will see likely 30-40km a day of ice cleared off the shoreline.

Models show no local inversions at the surface..

meaning the 20-35C air coming off the shoreline will directly cream the ice front bringing a steady supply of heat smoking the near shore ess ice.

Also where open water appears ssts will immediately jump to explosive warmth for the ESS.

LIKE 5C+ easily against the ice sheet.

Lasting impacts remain to be seen but this is going to be epic

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 08:24:44 AM »
The 00Z is quite interesting.

Definitely would be a game changer

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 28, 2018, 08:43:38 AM »
Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before.

Is that so? If yes, this is the most consistent and comprehensive explanation of what we are seeing this June.
Of course it is. Before everyone had refrigerated freezers they had iceboxes. The iceman would come once a week with a block. You' sprinkle some salt on it so it sat in a puddle of salty water. Presto: freezer. I think zero Fahrenheit is defined as the temp of equal weights of salt and water with ice floating in it isn't it?

The explanation that its meltponds where SMOS shows thin Ice during melt season may have been true in the past. But now it appears it may be our most accurate indication of actual concentration and area covered on a regional basis. The ice thickness bar might be actually fairly accurate as average ice thickness over an area of ocean that is a sprawling mess of floes and rubble. While other mor publicised and popular area and extent figures count open water gaps in the few hundred metre range as ice. SMOS just averages the distance between different polarisations from the surface and salinity horizon's over 40x40,km.
We have seen this week how several days of warm wet low level wind from the South made the pack between Svalbard and the pole look thicker on SMOS, when it most certainly was wetting the surface and melting it. Now a couple of days of northerlies in the area and the dispersion southwards gives the reverse:
(Thickness bar not indicating floe thickness accurately)

That's utter rubbish.  There is almost no melt ever.

EVER

above 80N before July.

Any year.  Literally no ice loss.

This year is no exception. 


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 19, 2018, 09:09:35 PM »
My apologies on the misuse of the phrase solar maximum.

I was definitely speaking of the solstice.


Anyways going back to the year 1999.  Surprisingly only one melt season had a legit major dipole anomaly and that was 2010.

2014 had a solid dipole but didn't have the super ridge and subsequent explosive low level temps bringing that perfect combo of sun and mixing in the 900-1000hpa level.

2007 also had a dipole but it in a recycling phase during the solstice.

The 10 days prior 2007 had an epic ridge just sit in place over the central Arctic basin.

The year most resembling our current weather is 2013.


There is currently a decent push of heat rolling through the Laptev into the Western CAB and Chuchki.

It weakens but the flow bends enough for 0c+ air to infiltrate the Beaufort over the next couple of days.

Another warm pulse and somewhat breakdown of the vortex comes later this week and it will be bringing moisture off the Barents


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 18, 2018, 06:31:48 AM »
Years like 2007, 2011,2012, and 2015 all had major dipole anomalies from late June into August.

Except 2011 lost momentum in late July.

2011 was on a torrid pace as well.

So far 2/3rd of the ice pack has seen essentially no surface melt.

The Beaufort has been completely spared.


Right now almost the entire freaking ice pack. Is cloud covered.

Pretty hohum.






28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 18, 2018, 06:15:36 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

Who are you? and what have you done with our Frivolous?

It's just not gonna happen. 


The models are now showing a very favorable pattern for ice retention.

With the current forecast half the ice pack will be seeing essentially no surface melting and endless cloudy skies and this is during the solar maximum.

We have never seen major ice loss with sustained like pressure over the CAB

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 17, 2018, 03:29:35 AM »
Unless a massively anomalous ridge of high pressure blows up and parks over the CAB,CAA, and GIS for the next 5 weeks there is zero chance for record low extent or area this year.

Volume is already past any chance for record lows

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 07:51:48 AM »
The models are now backing away from there prior colder huge NA side PV look.


Towards a quick shift through a weaker transient PV towards either a dipole anomaly or just a huge ridge over the central basin.

While the CAB has been protected.   Overall things have still fallen towards setting up for a potential major melt season if a dipole pops into the first half of July.


2015 proved July can essentially make up for June.


Although that was record setting.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 14, 2018, 04:37:39 AM »
The smos thickness is totally bunk.  It's not debateble. 

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 07:28:13 AM »
Looks like smos is being tricked by water on the ice surface from recent melting

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 08:03:09 AM »
In terms of potential Regional major melt the GFS is definitely showing potentially unprecedented ice melt over the Laptev and parts of the ESS heading into late June.


The most important points:

1.  Land based Warm Air Advection connection.  The models essentially park a modulating ridge over North Eastern Siberia that will extend out over the ESS, Chuchki, and Laptev through the next 10 days.

With an area of lower pressure essentially over the Kara region.

These features will help funnel warm air from the Russian continent continuously.

This will not only bring extra heating cause of the warm land mass but continue to widen the already large area of ice free open water.

This pool of water could easily reach 10C by next week.

2.  CLEAR SKIES DAY AFTER DAY....

3.  Shallow waters... The heat will easily warm all the way to the sea bed..allowing a constant flow of heat bombarding the ice from the sides.


This says it all. It's over an area that was going to melt out anyways.  But this could be something historic in how fast it does.

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:19:48 AM »
That DMI tool showed snow accumulation down to the 1200M level or so.

While actual observed soundings along the coast very close to there with winds stacked out of the ESS/SE going up well above 3000M showed multiple days with temps above 0C upwards of 3000M.

How much earth could it have snowed at that low of heights with saturated warm air pumping in.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:09:53 AM »
Are you saying this cyclone dropped 1000mm of precip in parts of the Arctic?  No freaking way.

Also while this is a very powerful intrusion of warm air still a large part of the Canadian Arctic Basin will stay in clouds and cold weather.

The areas most affected so far is the chuchki, ess, and now laptev is being smoked.

While the models are impressive with showing the ESS/Laptev getting totally hammered. The warm intrusion the next 2-3 days gets shunted away from the central pack before another push from the Kara/Laptev region is modeled to press poleward.

But it also gets shunted away from the CAB.

The models have picked up on a massive land based WAA event + sunny ridge over the CAA in a few days.


The ridging is still kept from the Beaufort and cab.

Things can still change.

2015 proved July can almost make up for June.

But we have essentially already parted ways with record breaking mins this year by the CAB and Beaufort seeing no surface melt essentially intoid June

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 02, 2018, 11:13:17 PM »
Warm air is finally pouring into the Pacific side of the Arctic basin.

We can expect the big albedo drop over essentially the entire Pacific side up to 80N within a couple days.


After day 5 the models keep flip flopping all over


The latest GFS shows a major dipole.  The euro shows the opposite.

But the euro is also a huge torch over the ESS and Laptev with nasty warmth bulleting into the Arctic on a powerful long wind fetch. 

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 31, 2018, 02:58:10 AM »
You can see the slow progressive warmth..

With a general Southerly flow into the Pacific side.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm sure those temps are well above normal over the CAB.

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