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Messages - pietkuip

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 06:42:25 PM »
Latest numbers on total mortality in the Netherlands looks much better than what I had expected:



The latest data point is about 50 % higher than the lab-confirmed numbers.
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

The European Mortality Monitor has also been updated:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
There the decrease in the latest datapoints is due to delays in reporting.

Sweden has a highest z of 15. Worse than neighbours, better than Belgium (30), France (22), Italy (23), Netherlands (24), Spain (35), England (44), Scotland (16), Wales (20).

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 29, 2020, 11:42:56 AM »
Maybe the excessive, unnecessary media and mass hysteria and fearmongering plays a role as well. But we'll never know, given that the majority determines what perceived reality is.

Here in Sweden, a shooting makes it in the news. A fatal car accident too. A deadly bus accident gets headlines. The tsunami and the sinking of the Estonia dominated the news for a long time.

This epidemic has many more deaths already now, in this country alone. It affects everyone's daily life.

How is news coverage "excessive"?

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 09:46:15 PM »
A study of Dutch blood donors has found that around 3 percent have developed antibodies against the new coronavirus, health authorities have said, an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease.
"This study shows that about 3 percent of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus," Van Dissel said. "You can calculate from that, it's several hundred thousand people" in a country of 17 million.

The RIVM has previously said that an immunity level of about 60% is required for herd immunity to take effect.

There are 28,158 confirmed coronavirus cases in the Netherlands, but only the very ill and healthcare workers are currently being tested.
Back of the envelope calculation gives 3% x 17M = 500k true infections count in the Netherlands. Official death count is 3134 but true death count probably around 5000-6000 based on total mortality. (If anyone can provide actual mortality data it would be better...).

Yes, https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland gives a factor of 2.




4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »
Friend is worrying about the forest fire near Tjernobyl.

Well, there was also a bit of a panic in Sweden in the spring of 1986. After that, a few thousand children in the Ukraine got thyroid cancer. Usually treatable.

Now we will be run over by the coronavirus, Tens of thousands will get pneumonia, for which there is no real treatment, which is often fatal.

And the country is not panicking.

Maybe this is due to the mass media being very reassuring etc.

The world is upside down. The Zone may be the safest place on Earth.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2020, 08:12:25 PM »
I had a look at the Excel file over total deaths by Statistics Sweden:
https://scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/scb-publicerar-preliminar-statistik-over-doda-i-sverige/

The latest complete 7-day period is March 24 till March 30. In the graph, the 2020 average for that is 271 per day, a bit above the background of the average of the five previous years of 258 per day.

It is the first week where a Covid19-signal can be seen, most clearly in the region of Stockholm:
     2018: 346 deaths
     2019: 310
     2020: 463

The number of corona deaths in that 7-day period from https://c19.se/Sweden/Stockholm is 70 (10 per day).

This may suggest that also in Sweden only about half the number of Covid deaths is counted.


6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2020, 11:16:57 AM »
Now - of course - humanity may fail to extirpate this virus. In that case, we will lose 4-12% of the population over the next year or two, and it will become an ongoing predator, culling the old and infirm, the unhealthy, and the weak. In time, those who are genetically less vulnerable will prevail and have children, lessening the impact of the virus; and conversely - suppressing those genetic lines that are less able to withstand its ravages.

Sam

Extirpation has only succeeded with smallpox (almost). It needs a vaccine.

And Sam keeps ignoring data. I am sure he knows the Gangelt result where 15 % had had the infection at the time of the study. Death rates are ten times lower than his lower boundary. Lower than 0.4 % of the population (which is about 10 times as bad as a bad flu season).

Data should be more convincing than such looong pieces of overly dramatic prose.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
Quote
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

Worldmeter shows deaths with a corona diagnosis.

This shows all deaths: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Excess deaths was about 1000.

Same kind of difference as in Nembro.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 03:53:37 PM »
Re: the graph above.
In the winter of 2018 our ICU's weren't overrun.


Yeah, what happened there? What's the reason for that spike?

In the first months of 2018, there was the seasonal flu. About 9000 excess deaths in the Netherlands, 0.05 % of the population. Often in care homes or just at home. One sees a lower than usual mortality in the months after that peak.

Notice also the small global-warming related spike last summer.

The last data is deaths from a week ago. It will continue rising.

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:11:17 PM »
In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

So - cursing offends you. But the huge death tolls don't. Man that is quite the set of values and priorities you have.

Sam

At least your personal insults were uncharacteristically concise!

It is just that I don't find cursing or insults terribly convincing.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:00 PM »
Quote
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake .

Sweden got it. We know that the situation will be much worse two weeks from now. Already one week from now, more changes in behaviour are likely to be advised. There are also legal preparations for emergency measures.

In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?

Sam is not convincing, discards data that do not fit in his view of the situation.

A-team was posting rubbish by a quack, got support from several others here (I don't remember names).

Achimid is a mask-fundamentalist. Supported the Texan raid in Mexico!

So, frankly, I am not impressed with this crowd, the wide-spread disdain for experts here. Now for example a rant by someone against Fauci.

I hear the reasoned advice by the experts of the Swedish health authority and I follow it. Would probably also follow it in cases where I did not agree. Would certainly follow local orders.

I have no illusions about the future: different policies won't make much of a difference in the end.


12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:30:52 PM »
I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Freedom bites everyone in the ass when you grab it when you shouldn't.

I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.

Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 24, 2020, 11:23:53 AM »
This is a most sad and difficult time.

It could have been less sad and less difficult - a lot less. Unfortunately, all of the things required to do that require foresight and planning. We humans are not very good at that. More than this it required learning from the past. We are generally really bad at that. And most of all it required understanding and believing in acting on warnings, using the precautionary principle and variations on that, and on understanding math, particularly exponential math. And the vast majority of humans are absolutely terrible at that.

[...]
Addenda. Oddly too, the inability to understand the basic math involves lead to many absurd things. One of those is evident today. The head of the WHO was quoted today as saying the pandemic is "accelerating". This appears to be the case when you think linearly. The counts of those infected and those killed are increasing exponentially. Yet in truth, the pandemic is slowly decelerating. The rate of growth caused by the exponential is slowing. In math terms he is factually wrong and has it backwards. Still, in human terms it is a true statement.

One of the difficulties with exponential problems is that they look very much like nothing is happening for a very long time. Then seemingly suddenly and out of no where they seem to explode. They were exploding all along. The time to have gotten excited was long ago. Now comes the time for reflection and repentance at our collective failings and the harms those caused.

It will be easier to understand when it is is communicated more clearly.

The number of deaths grows with a factor 10 in (slightly longer than) a week. Then it is easy to understand how soon it will be 100 times as bad. How soon it will be 1000 times as bad (about a month). And how soon it will be a million times as bad, if that is possible.

Select "deaths" in these graphs. Adjust the number of countries shown. Most countries in the West are on the same slope.
https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 01:47:55 AM »
Horrific account of the already untenable situation in NOLA, and of just what horrible damage this thing can do, and how very fast it can happen: https://www.alternet.org/2020/03/medical-worker-describes-terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid-19-even-in-his-young-patients/

Not sure I trust this source or the anonymous 1st person account.

That is a very valid comment. It gives some confidence that this is from Pro Publica. The original link is:
https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes--terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

Their writer is "Lizzie Presser", which sounds like pseudonym. Still, I tend to believe it.


15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:41:36 PM »
So far Sam has been far more accurate than any experts in the media. Pietkuip not so much. Denial politics.

Hilarious - one is wrong here when one uses references to experts to criticize the wordy loudmouths on this site.

A-team's warm-water quack now gets support from the Malaysian health minister:
Quote
The Health Minister appeared on RTM's Bicara Naratif programme on Thursday (March 19) night and claimed that the virus cannot take heat, and that the warm water would also flush virus into the stomach.

"Do not drink water that is not boiled. Drink a glass of water that is warm because the virus does not like warm things. Make sure (the water) is not too hot.

"The virus will go down (the oesophagus) and when it reaches the stomach which has acids, the virus dies. That's how we eliminate the virus.

"What's important is that we have to kill the virus in our throats before it reaches our lungs.

"This virus, it likes the lower part of the lungs. It likes to stay there. That's why it is said that this virus loves human beings," he said.
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/20/health-minister039s-039warm-water-method039-to-kill-coronavirus-questioned




16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 02:07:09 PM »
There have been a lot of comments about various countries not having as many deaths as expected, Germany and Sweden among them..

But please notice and compare how many cases each country is reporting. Then, how many deaths they are reporting, AND how many recoveries they are reporting.

Many of the countries with the unusually low death reports also have unusually low recovery rates. In essence - it appears that they simply aren't reporting. As a result, the statistics are meaningless.

You are just saying that you are ignoring the data of the best bureaucracies in the world.

This makes you look dogmatic, not scientific...

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 09:43:25 AM »
If blinding yourself counts as "something right", certainly.

Sweden is not blinding itself.

You seem to be closing your eyes for data that do not fit in your preconceptions.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 01:49:06 AM »
The infection fatality ratio varies hugely with age.
0-9 0.002%
80+ 9.3%
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Thats 4 orders of magnitude.

If you don't account for the way most testing is heavily biassed to the older section of the population, you will come to all sorts of odd conclusions.
Part of this is due to triage: when there is only one respirator available, working-age parents will get prioritized over granddad with emphysema.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 08:41:09 PM »
Over here more than a million people have astma, for a population of 11 million people. They are all high risk.

In other parts of the world, there is tuberculosis. A friend of mine in India had it last year. She is a physician.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 03:56:57 PM »
at some point we might just have to [...] absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity

At some point, yes. But 5 % of the population dead in the next two months is not acceptable.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 11:17:12 AM »
Oh no, what do we do now??  :o

National Day of Prayer Fails to Stop Coronavirus

Link >> https://www.richardcahill.net/home/national-day-of-prayer-fails-to-stop-coronavirus

Sacrifice the firstborn sons?

Or should one try the LBQT first, see if that would do it?

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 09:29:39 PM »
From Robert Rohde on twitter:  a graph showing the per capita number of cases, recoveries and deaths in various countries.  The link also has an animation showing how these numbers evolved over the past 2 months.  As he notes, the caveat is that in many places the official numbers may greatly underestimate the true number of infections, due to limited testing.

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1239344674160205824




That is interesting! Of course, Iceland does not have the highest number of cases. The virus got there only after the skiing vacations in the Italian Alps. Iceland does not have big carnaval celebrations like Germany, Netherlands, etc. Social distances are probably larger there than in most countries.

It is just that they are testing a lot. They also try to have this huge genetic database, etc.

23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 09:21:11 PM »
Its basic physics. Masks work like the earth is round. Masks do not work like the Earth is flat.
Typical physicist being outside their area of expertise.

Lots of people with masks did contract the virus.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 07:50:27 PM »
Quote
This will show the ten most optimistic fellow posters who voted in this poll were, alas, overly optimistic.

I didn't think Trump and Boris were sabotaging the medical response. It never occurred to me. This was completely containable. It still is, if testing gets going with a vengeance.

Your prediction was totally unrealistic.

Boris Johnson follows advice from his medical experts. Trump, well, everybody should have known that he would not do that.

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 01:05:14 AM »
Note: Dr. Fauci and many others have been citing a doubling time of one week. That is grossly in error. It is much much faster than that. And that has enormous impacts on decision making.

Maybe you misheard? "Tenfold in a week" is correct, but maybe you heard "twofold"?

See the semilogarithmic curves of the cumulative numbers of deaths here: https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 12:40:38 AM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 16, 2020, 12:17:50 AM »
The Guardian has seen internal memos of Public Health England:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Quote
The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

Quote
A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

That number is not global, it is for Britain alone.

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 10:00:38 PM »

2) Whether nations do what is needed to stem this pandemic or not, once the first wave passes, will the nations of the world maintain stringent controls and education, and then aggressively work to eradicate this thing everywhere? Yes, that too is rhetorical. They won’t. That is my prediction. Economic pressures will win.
Eradicating this bug is not possible. Not with your estimate of how contagious this is. Or with other values of R0.

This bug must be present under the radar in parts of Asia and Africa.

This bug is rapidly multiplying in the USA, among populations that do not have access to healthcare.

I don't know what is happening in the countries of the former Sovjet Union.

Until a vaccine is developed, eradication is unrealistic. Whatever amounts of money one would throw at this.

PS: Had a nice dinner this evening with a Chinese student. How the tables have turned! Now her parents worry about her here in Sweden. And she is stuck here. Cannot travel in the rest of Europe as she had planned.

29
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 01:53:56 PM »
Wuhan, Italy, Iran and soon other nations will provide us with evidence regarding the CFR we can expect when the health care system is overwhelmed and desperately ill people are essentially left to their own devices. The problem with these CFR numbers is we will never understand fully the IFR in these countries as their failed heath care system can't possibly identify all that are infected.

Last I checked, the CFR in Italy is around 7%.
One will be able to count the total number of extra dead and one can safely assume that those are due to corona. And one can assume that the whole population was infected or at least exposed to the virus.

In a couple of months from now, with the statistics kept here: http://www.euromomo.eu/

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 01:42:17 PM »
Quote
And I booked a table in the center tonight. The owners wrote that they need customers.

If it was just the CFR I would say, good riddance. But the R0 will make it so that this decision affect others than you.

Wow, that was friendly!

Read some: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
Quote
As Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University, put it: “The truth is those kinds of lockdowns are very rare and never effective.”

Fortunately, there are other ways to slow an outbreak. Above all, health officials have encouraged people to avoid public gatherings, to stay home more often and to keep their distance from others. If people are less mobile and interact with each other less, the virus has fewer opportunities to spread.

The restaurant has taken measures. No buffet anymore. No crowding. And I am doing as the experts at the Swedish health authority recommend in the current situation.

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 11:47:35 AM »
I think the government in Norway got this wrong.

Albania is doing the same thing. People are ordered back to Tirana by 20:00 hours this evening.

Yes, massive flight would overwhelm healthcare on the countryside.

Amazing and unexpected decisions, but totally correct in my opinion.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 10:58:02 AM »
It is difficult to do the right thing. Many families in Norway are fleeing the city, working remotely from their cabins in the countryside.

But now the government is ordering them to return to their homes, because this would overwhelm healthcare in the countryside, where the average age is higher. If necessary by force (civil defense forces).

Wow. I don't think the preppers were prepared for that.

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 09:38:58 PM »
The problem is not open borders but tourism and leisure. If at least people would stop going around just for fun, it would help a lot. This is the reason why countries have to close borders, shops...

When cafés, restaurants, museums, concerts, theatres, etc are closed, the tourists will stay away.

Closing borders sends the message that the bad stuff comes from outside. It does not cost votes.
For politicians this is a tempting thing to do when there is a "need to do something".

34
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: March 14, 2020, 10:26:32 AM »
I haven't read the whole thread yet but:
You have written this: "Stupidest list I have ever seen on this site. An incredible amount of bullshit."
         https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg253896.html#msg253896

That was uncalled for. I don't agree with that specific either but found the list very very helpful and bookmarked it.
Is there not a rule against bad language? ;)  There should be.

I value the general opinions and posts of both of you btw.
So you swallowed that too?

Have you taken to gargling yet? Drinking warm water because it became "effective for all viruses"? Avoid ice cubes in your Coke or your whiskey? Did you buy Cold-Eeze zinc pills "proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus"? Absolute quackery.

And then the assurance that a running nose is not corona? That is dangerous advice. It is desinformation, harmful to society, it could get your older relatives killed.

How can thinking people find such crap worth bookmarking? Why trust A-team's quack more than the WHO?

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 02:24:01 AM »
The prediction is based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model.

What is on the axes?

What are the assumptions?

World? US? Europe? What?

36
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: March 14, 2020, 12:53:20 AM »
The account A-team (of whom I know nothing) has three four times demanded to know who I am (in the Covid-19 thread).

Is there not a rule against that?

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 11:00:08 PM »
We haven’t ventured into our personal regime in dealing with pandemic on our doorstep. I personally would place a lot creditability in A-Teams advice but I would consider how others might advise also.
Calling BS without giving us a view into your alternatives is CS pietkuip.
 

It is a long list of utter nonsense. Gurgling??

Warm water snake oil for all viruses??????

I call bullshit when I see this kind of stupidity sold as "medical advice".

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 10:25:58 PM »

3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27C (78-80F) degrees.

What bloody nonsense!

People are 37 degrees, the virus is happy then. And at 38, 39, 40. Until you are dead and cold!

Stupidest list I have ever seen on this site. An incredible amount of bullshit.

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 08:57:00 PM »
I am watching in awe at the Trump press conference.

The incredible amounts of time that must be devoted to ego stroking!

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 06:50:27 PM »
This suggests to me that the number of deaths attributable to the virus can only be estimated by comparing actual recorded total deaths against projections of total deaths from existing population models that exclude the virus factor.

I am left with 2 questions....
- I wonder if such an analysis will be done during the progress and/or after the end of the covid-19 epidemic?

This is being done constantly:
http://www.euromomo.eu/
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

But the normal routine has a delay of about two weeks (a bit like the PIOMAS data or the methane levels).

Italian cemeteries are overwhelmed. And in Iran too.

41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 06:36:34 PM »
At this point, I believe it is a legitimate question to ask if any world leaders - especially those in the older age brackets - will die from COVID-19.

If any are in ill-health, then the probability increases.  The fatality rate for healthy individuals, even in the older age brackets, is relatively low.
The fatality rate goes up when one is deselected in the triage of an overwhelmed hospital where 40-year-old patients must be prioritized.


42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 01:29:02 PM »
Time will tell. I heard them clearly making light of the situation at the beginning of the crisis. Much in the same way as the USA and the UK.

My belief is that it is a political calculation. If they can keep the news about deaths ( not the deaths themselves) to a minimum, there is a good chance that with warmer weather the R0 goes down and the infection rate slows down. Perhaps enough to keep the death under the radar until next winter.

UK is in no way similar to the USA.

Iran has several dead in their leadership, and the corona diagnosis is not kept secret.
See this list, and their sources: https://www.technicalpolitics.com/articles/a-list-of-named-coronavirus-victims-updates/


43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
Iran is has been doing the same thing as the US since the beginning, including manipulating the data. What you see is what they want to show.

The comparison is not fair. The sanctions (by Trump!) are of course also hitting the number of virus tests that Iran has available. This made it difficult to contain the spread in Iran in the beginning.

Yes, Iran lied about shooting themselves in the foot their own airplane. But I think they published all their officially diagnosed cases.

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 12:27:44 AM »
A student at our university (Linnaeus University in Växjö) was confirmed to be infected with corona today.

He probably was infected on a trip to the United States.

That is than the second case in Sweden due to travel to the US.

Thanks to Trump  >:(

Katie Porter for President!

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 11:22:16 PM »
The official numbers of Iran are bad, but reality is much worse. (Possibly because the emborgo makes that they don't have enough tests and reagents.)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-iran-mass-graves-qom
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000007011860/iran-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Satellite imaging agrees with documentation from opposition groups.

Also the list of higher-ups that died shows that the death toll must be enormous.
https://www.technicalpolitics.com/articles/a-list-of-named-coronavirus-victims-updates/

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:37:05 PM »
1. Not everyone would get it even if no controls at all. 25-50% get it then herd immunity

This won't disappear from a population until a much larger percentage is immune. I would guess 80 % or more.

This is a different situation from the _start_ of an epidemic in a population where 50 % is immune, when it cannot spread very well.

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 08:57:34 PM »
What's with Italy anyway .. over 600 dead .. over 6% case fatality .. but nearer 50% of known cases a week ago . Certainly keep hearing of 15% needing ICU support and that is running out .

They are a bit ahead of the rest and their healthcare systems got overwhelmed first. Also, an older population.

On a log scale, most lines are parallel. Exception: Japan.

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112/photo/1

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 05:36:33 PM »
The thought occurs to me:

Using phone GPS to do contact tracing. Almost everyone in the world has a phone, and those phones have GPS and the capacity to keep a log of all the GPS locations visited.

If everyone downloaded and activated such an app, upon positive test, the data can be retrieved, contact tracing being expedited significantly. Upon a positive test, the trace can be shared to all the apps instantly notifying the app if it was at the same time and the same place as nCoV.
It is easy to check where you have been when you had not disabled this. Open you Google profile -> manage account -> data -> location history.

Also Facebook has this function that can warn you when a Corona buddy is nearby.

This kind of surveillance caused some problems in South Korea: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51733145

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 02:27:31 PM »
What I want to point by those figures is that indirect impacts, the huge side effects on economy and health systems etc. is without proportion with the actual mortality rate.
So far, of course.
How is impact on health systems a "side effect" of a virus?

In Italy it was said that under-60-year-olds were prioritized in intensive-care units.

In Iran there are now five deaths of people with wikipedia pages:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deaths_from_the_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak
There must be many more ordinary people that died without a confirmed diagnosis.

See also this long list:
https://www.technicalpolitics.com/articles/a-list-of-named-coronavirus-victims-updates/

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:40:04 AM »
Quote
the virus is transmitted “easily and sustainably from person to person” which leads Messonnier to believe that most U.S. citizens will be exposed to COVID-19 over the next two years
'

This is completely optional and it won't work like that. This is either contained through contact tracing and quarantine or it fizzles out through massive deaths. There is no 2-year time frame for this. ( maybe with halfway quarantines)

The US are not trying contact tracing. They are not even testing the Kirkland employees with symptoms: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-nursinghome/seattle-area-nursing-home-unable-to-test-65-workers-with-covid-19-symptoms-idUSKBN20X01R
 
So it looks like Iran, with a delay of a few weeks.

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