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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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1
May not be the right thread but as Arctic summer sea ice is being referred to, the latest modelling indicates circa 2035 for its first disappearance.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200810113216.htm

2035 seems about right, right around there is when the trend line for arctic sea ice volume at minimum reaches 0.

Of course that assumes we don't have a fluke event like 2012, which would bring it about sooner.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 06:22:21 PM »
I notice the Trump shirt guy in the Modern World strip above says "People die of all kind of things! It is what it is!".
Sound like somebody on this forum?

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 13, 2020, 01:56:08 PM »
How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5
Quote
June 2021. The world has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn; intermittent lockdowns are the new normal. An approved vaccine offers six months of protection, but international deal-making has slowed its distribution. An estimated 250 million people have been infected worldwide, and 1.75 million are dead.

4
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 07, 2020, 10:16:07 PM »
I doubt reducing net GHG emissions to zero by 2050 is enough at this late date to hold global warming to 1.5° C.

5
No "V"
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/no-v/
Quote
These pictures are worth thousands of words:

Also:
Millions of Workers Suffering From Repeat Layoffs
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/millions-of-workers-suffering-from-repeat-layoffs
Quote
California is not unique. This implies millions of workers nationally are suffering through repeated layoffs and reduced hours.

6
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:53:28 AM »
OK, I missed something. Can I not go backpacking for a few days & return to "situation unchanged"? haha
Nope.

7
Consequences / Re: Locust Swarm 2020
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:26:48 PM »
Locust Swarms Invade Southern Russia, Cause Colossal Damage
https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/2020/august/locust-swarms-invade-southern-russia-cause-colossal-damage
Quote
Locust swarms have invaded Russia's southern regions causing colossal damage to the local agriculture.

According to regional authorities, the damage is estimated at over 13 million US dollars. 

A state of emergency has been declared in seven parts of the republic of Kalmykia, according to the Emergency Ministry.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 04, 2020, 01:32:34 PM »
No two countries are identical but some are similar. I would think the Scandinavian countries with similar backgrounds would be more alike each other than they would be to, say, China or Nigeria.

9
The politics / Re: Why CHAZ failed
« on: August 02, 2020, 02:00:42 PM »
My grandfather fought the Kaiser. My father was supposed to invade Japan, but a couple big firecrackers turned that into occupation duty and probably saved his life.
This article describes what happened at CHAZ, and how it fell into anarchy and warlordism. That is what happens when you get rid of the police. There are over two thirds of a million police officers in the United States, and 99% of them are heroes risking their lives to protect us from the muggers, rapists and murderers.
EDIT: What I am trying to prevent is this defund the police meme that has sprung up. If we end the police we will all end up as CHAZ.

10
But wouldn't the last 1M of ice more likely be along the Greenland and Canadian Archipelago coasts instead of around the Pole?

11
The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: July 29, 2020, 05:59:05 PM »
b, I know Biden will not be prolife. If a million Americans a year were dying of heatstroke AGW would be the deciding issue. If a million Americans a year were dying of COVID that would be the deciding issue. But a million Americans a year are dying of abortion. Tell me what candidate I should vote for then.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 04:55:03 PM »
About what I would expect. 2012 was a freak, but each normal year since then is getting a little bit worse.

13
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 27, 2020, 03:17:23 PM »
Are the last two of the rules actually true?

14
The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 26, 2020, 11:49:58 AM »
There are exceptions SB. The three lady scientists who worked with great apes, or Anne Rasa with dwarf mongooses. Treasure these jewels.

15
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 26, 2020, 11:46:31 AM »
prokaryotes, I see you are taking over from me and nanning! Good!

16
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: July 25, 2020, 11:24:44 PM »
Don't worry, ASLR, we can wait.

17
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 25, 2020, 10:23:49 PM »
I grew up during the Cold War. I knew we could peak at any day. I always knew where Cleveland was, where I would see the Big Flash. Once criminals broke out of a prison in Warrensville Heights and I heard the siren in Maple Heights and thought I was about to die. We almost did peak in October 1962.
Maybe our survival is a kind of planetary Quantum Immortality, and there are centillions of timelines  where Earth is a burned out cinder in space.

18
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 24, 2020, 03:50:27 PM »
blum, don't put words in other people's mouth. There is no evidence in the article linked, nor the article that one links to, that she wanted or expected "other people" to be hurt more than her...she picked the "less bad". I became an Independent before her for similar reasons, and voted for Trump for similar reasons. I am also a sexagenerian, so I am at risk for covid, and I think Trump deserves a D- at best for how he is handling the pandemic. So I understand how she feels.
EDIT: Also, you seem to feel every Trump voter only voted for Trump because he would "hurt other people". I do not accuse all Hillary voters of voting solely so a mother can kill her baby for nine months. Yes, that is the decisive issue for me, but I am aware other people have other issues in mind.

19
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: July 17, 2020, 11:47:13 PM »
We even know one of the stars that was a member of the sun's birth cluster...HD 162826:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HD_162826

20
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: July 17, 2020, 12:17:42 AM »
Ken:
Do those studies saying >4C is very unlikely take into account the feedbacks and tipping points 3° warming is likely to kick in?

21
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: July 14, 2020, 03:31:20 PM »
blumenkraft, here is how the good ole USA is handling homelessness:

Looming evictions may soon make 28 million homeless in U.S., expert says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/10/looming-evictions-may-soon-make-28-million-homeless-expert-says.html

I especially like this little titbit:
Quote
CNBC: Because of the pandemic, a lot of these evictions are unfolding over video or phone instead of in a courtroom. What are the issues that come up here?

EB: Even prior to the pandemic, the system was very challenging for tenants to navigate and to raise their rights — 90% of tenants across the country are unrepresented. When you consider that people are now choosing between rent and food for their families, they’re also unlikely to be able to pay for minutes on their phone, or Wi-Fi, to log into a remote hearing. So appearance itself may be very challenging. And if they fail to appear, if they weren’t able to dial in or if they don’t have the right link to the Zoom, that’s considered a failure to appear, which results in a default judgment for the property owner.

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 13, 2020, 10:13:46 AM »
If the Powers That Be are manufacturing an extreme reaction to disasters like C-19, why aren't they manufacturing extreme reactions to disasters like AGW?

23
From the Wikipedia article:
Quote
Generally, periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology (potential output).[2] Another proposed definition of depression includes two general rules:[3][4]

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.
There are also differences in the duration of depression across definitions. Some economists refer only to the period when economic activity is declining. The more common use, however, also encompasses the time until the economic activity has returned close to normal levels.[1]
AFAIK we are already at 10% or more GDP decline for at least a couple months, right? We will see in about twenty months if the recession lasts two years. And I don't kow how to evaluate the first definition.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 10, 2020, 09:24:46 PM »
Come back, Sam.  :'(
Please.

25
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Won’t Help
https://dailyreckoning.com/monetary-and-fiscal-policy-wont-help/

Monetary:
Quote
Well, velocity has been crashing for the past 20 years. From its peak of 2.2 in 1997 (each dollar supported $2.20 of nominal GDP), it fell to 2.0 in 2006 just before the global financial crisis and then crashed to 1.7 in mid-2009 as the crisis hit bottom.

The velocity crash did not stop with the market crash. It continued to fall to 1.43 by late 2017 despite the Fed’s money printing and zero rate policy (2008–15).

Even before the new pandemic-related crash, it fell to 1.37 in early 2020. It can be expected to fall even further as the new depression drags on.

As velocity approaches zero, the economy approaches zero. Money printing is impotent. $7 trillion times zero = zero. There is no economy without velocity.

Fiscal:
Quote
Here’s the problem:

There is strong evidence that the Keynesian multiplier does not exist when debt levels are already too high.

In fact, America and the world are inching closer to what economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff describe as an indeterminate yet real point where an ever-increasing debt burden triggers creditor revulsion, forcing a debtor nation into austerity, outright default or sky-high interest rates.

Reinhart and Rogoff’s research reveals that a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio or higher is not just more of the same debt stimulus. Rather it’s what physicists call a critical threshold.

26
Walrus, if you think we will be back to a 2019 economy by 2022 I have a fitness center here in Twinsburg to sell you real cheap.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:44:50 PM »
Quote
It would take several cold winters, without significant melting during intervening summers, to make the ice healthy again.
With AGW, that is a weight of 350 pounds probability...i.e. "fat chance".

28
Depression and the Great American Exodus
https://dailyreckoning.com/depression-and-the-great-american-exodus/
Quote
Defining Depression
The best definition ever offered came from John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 classic The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

Keynes said a depression is “a chronic condition of subnormal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards recovery or towards complete collapse.”

Keynes did not refer to declining GDP; he talked about “subnormal” activity.

In other words, it’s entirely possible to have growth in a depression. The problem is that the growth is below trend. It is weak growth that does not do the job of providing enough jobs or staying ahead of the national debt.
Surely the contraction we are experiencing would have been called a "Depression" in the days before the Great Depression made the D-word politically incorrect.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 08, 2020, 01:49:35 PM »
nanning:
Don’t worry about spelling possessions... I am lucky to get through one post without a typo.

30
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:43:40 PM »
We lost another one...Charlie Daniels (1936-2020)


The Devil Went Down To Georgia - The Charlie Daniels Band

31
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 04, 2020, 11:54:04 AM »
Paul Beckwith on stuck Rossby Waves endangering food production in North Temperate Zone:
https://paulbeckwith.net/2020/06/30/global-food-supply-at-risk-from-simultaneous-crop-losses-due-to-specific-jet-stream-patterns/

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 30, 2020, 03:41:15 PM »
Volume is probably better for estimating when the ice will disappear. Are or extant is probably better for estimating when the shrinkage will cause trouble.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: June 30, 2020, 02:19:46 AM »
That is for a BOE being a normal event. Given unusual conditions the first one can be earlier in the decade.

34
Consequences / Re: Locust Swarm 2020
« on: June 25, 2020, 12:06:58 PM »
Now it is the Western Hemisphere's turn:

'Astonishing' huge swarm of locusts sweeps through farmland and ruins crops
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/astonishing-huge-swarm-locusts-sweeps-22220756
Quote
They affected farms across Lanteri in Argentina and then headed for the large city of Santa Fe. Authorities say they headed across Argentina from neighbouring Paraguay.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 24, 2020, 12:02:12 PM »
Quote
Dear Bruce, that was beautiful to read. I wish that I was so eloquent.
But you are that eloquent, nanning.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 24, 2020, 01:40:51 AM »
Quote
We  are already in the frame for some real nasty surprises.
We need some really nasty surprises if we are ever going to tackle this problem.

37
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: June 23, 2020, 03:48:10 PM »
kassy, I thought ocean front property was the kind that millionaires went for...that that was a selling point for the upper upper class. I wasn’t “making it up”, that’s what I thought.

38
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 23, 2020, 02:27:40 PM »
Well, this online community is doing a darn fine job.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 22, 2020, 03:56:41 PM »
Here’s another one:
How much AGW is “built in” now? If everyone dropped dead today, for how many decades would warming continue and how many degrees would it go?

40
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 19, 2020, 05:25:38 PM »
Gee, I tried looking for examples of divine disrespect, and while I found a few, they were not nanning's.
Now I'm really sorry!

41
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 19, 2020, 12:48:21 PM »
Thinking it over, I shall apologize to nanning. He is the best of us in sustainability, and the perfect is the enemy of the good. I was bothered by his misspelling of the name of my Lord and Savior, and that kind of boiled over. I may be reading things into the tone of his posts that are not actually there...maybe he is not calling the kettle black explicitely, and my reading between the lines is just a hallucination. Sorry, nanning.
But I will still point out that we need a technological revolution to get out of this without gigadeath. If everyone lived like nanning that would just delay the collapse to later this century, and depending on what such a lifestyle revolution would do to carrying capacity might even bring it about sooner.

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 17, 2020, 09:03:39 PM »
Don't Expect Millions To Die From Coronavirus, Says Richard Epstein
https://reason.com/video/dont-expect-millions-to-die-from-coronavirus-says-richard-epstein/
Quote
The NYU Law professor thinks we're in for a mess of bad epidemiology, ineffective stimulus, and misguided quarantines.

It's three months since this was posted.
I say we wait until the two millionth victim dies, and then we all email Richard Epstein.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 15, 2020, 12:05:57 PM »
nanning:
Can you tell us how, if you are so impoverished, you are able to enjoy an online presence?

44
Same with me, miki.

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 12, 2020, 01:10:25 PM »
Gandul, The Covid thread has already cost ASIF some important contributors , Sam, A-Team , and SH. Maybe you could just take a personal note on those who you disagree with and avoid questioning years of knowledge they have here imparted ? Ice ain’t Covid .
 Your last post came across as belligerent IMO and although Neven can plenty well defend his record I am kinda shocked that one of our members would go where you just went. Hard to see a language issue so before I put in a complaint maybe you could back it down a notch. If you were a fisherman and in my face I would use more direct language. Tempted
Well, I would hate to think my thread was responsible for costing us those members. Of course, if I had not started it someone else would have. While I am not as pessimistic as I was, I am still more pessimistic than Neven. I just wish we could debate on this without losing posters.

46
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 06, 2020, 08:34:42 PM »
Quote
Also I prefer the Copernicus as it uses a more recent climate norm  1981 to 2010.

GISS is still stuck with 1971 to 2000. Will it ever move on from this 30 year period ?

Of course neither reflects the pre-industrial "normal".

47
Consequences / Re: Re: COVID-19
« on: June 02, 2020, 01:48:49 PM »
Alexander, what would be the “method” of the protests costing millions of jobs? Why should people be fired just because some idiots are acting out? I could see thousands of people from businesses where the damage was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but millions?

48
The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: June 02, 2020, 12:48:43 PM »
Good idea, nanning.
Which of course means it likely won’t be adopted  :(

49
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 02, 2020, 12:46:45 PM »
Well, Steve, there are plenty of other points on that website and I can see two sides to this, unlike abortion which is open and shut. I do admit that Capitalism has big problems but I thought I would give a look to the other side.

50
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:15:32 PM »
It happens, nanning. A couple times I almost locked one of my threads by mistake or nearly deleted my account.

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