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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 12, 2019, 05:44:52 PM »

Consequences / Re: Plant Life
« on: June 12, 2019, 03:57:07 PM »
The Holocene extinction thread would have worked?

I wanted people following the plants thread to know what is happening.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:47:07 PM »
Well, Tim, in that case I will miss you. I did not object to your calling out what you see as a piece of disinformation. I objected to you calling it out and calling it out and calling it out...
I wish you luck in finding a forum that meets your criteria. But if you do, I fear you will just be preaching to the choir.

Walking the walk / Re: Informative & Useful Books
« on: June 10, 2019, 07:18:07 PM »
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2015, 07:52:07 AM »

Oh, that's why I didn't find this thread when I searched for "The End of Ice" and "The Unlivable Earth" (two books I borrowed from my library). The thread is several years old. Well, I am sure there have been books on AGW published since Nov 2, 2015, so I'll bump the thread.

Consequences / Re: Limits To Growth Predicts Collapse in 2015
« on: June 06, 2019, 04:02:56 PM »
hysteresis does not just mean a delay in suffering the results of our offenses to the Earth's systems, it also means a delay in the recovery from those results.
For example, suppose we push CO2e up to 560 ppm and the temperature will rise by 3 C. But it doesn't do so for a few decades after we hit 560. That is the hysteresis you spoke of. Then, by superhuman effort, we get CO2e back down to 280. But the temperature may not recover for many decades after this! That is the hysteresis that will really bite us.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in models?
« on: June 06, 2019, 01:11:56 PM »

Walking the walk / Re: Individual action good, but not good enough
« on: June 05, 2019, 05:57:43 PM »
OK, neven.
I sometimes feel torn between opening a new thread and making an OT post. I will try to error for the later.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 05:55:58 PM »
I have maintained all along that the quickest way to dramatically impact CO2 emissions is on the individual consumer level.

But how do you get a billion consumers to all voluntarily conserve less?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 04, 2019, 02:29:45 PM »
A few days ago I was in a rush and forgot the threads I should have used. I apologized to never, and he forgave me.

Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: June 03, 2019, 05:23:30 PM »
More from

Gton release                  Mean ocean T change at 102,000 AD
300                               ~0.17 C
1000                             ~0.5 C
2000                             ~0.9 C
5000                             ~2 C

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: June 03, 2019, 03:42:23 PM »
Well, don't blame me for the Trump Presidency.
I was a lifelong Republican. In 2014 I left the GOP because of their War Against the Poor and their general craziness.
In 2016 I rejoined the GOP just so I could vote for Kasich against Trump in the primary. I then left again, but (very) reluctantly voted for Trump in the election.
I know a perfect way of electing a POTUS is impossible, but shouldn't we strive for at least an optimal one, instead of a pessimal one?

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: June 03, 2019, 03:19:05 PM »
Meh, this site is blocked for visitors from Europe. :-\

Tom, can you tell me what alleged method is?

This team's new method instead uses an electrolyzer, a device that uses electricity to power a chemical reaction. Electrolyzers are sometimes used to produce hydrogen fuel from water, and this team realised they can also use it to release the CO2 from dissolved carbonate, skipping the heating entirely.

The electrolyzer also has a silver-based catalyst that immediately converts the CO2 into a gas mixture known as syngas. Syngas can be easily turned into a wide variety of products, including jet fuel and plastic precursors.

"This is the first known process that can go all the way from carbonate to syngas in a single step," says Sargent.

I just had a thought...
Could SLR (and other AGW effects) have a hysteresis? So say CO2e doubles (to 560 ppm) and these effects occur, then through superhuman effort we get the CO2e back down to 280 ppm, but the effects don't go back to "normal"?

Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: May 30, 2019, 06:25:52 PM »
I assumed C, since this is on the World Wide Web and not the United States Wide Web.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: May 30, 2019, 12:52:18 AM »
Some of you cited futures prices as evidence the flooding threat is exaggerated.
Well, corn futures up:

UPS makes big renewable natural gas commitment:

And how exactly does making a commitment to renewable natural gas reduce greenhouse emissions?

From the article:
The deal, as reported, will extend through 2026 with UPS announcing that it expects to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by more than a million tonnes.


California Air Resources Board Low Carbon Fuel Standard program has shown in recent data that biodiesel and renewable diesel fuel use reduced 4.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in California last year, more than any other fuel type of fuel, including ethanol and battery electric power.

We need to make changes today to stop worse things from happening further down the road and committing the system to Eemian era sea levels.

Rich, I suspect stopping Eemian sea levels is a train that has already left the station.

The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« on: May 27, 2019, 01:28:13 PM »
I'll tell you what is strange.
A couple bullies ganged up on me, twisting what I write and calling me a troll and if I protested that just proved them right.
I learned what a "troll" is about twenty years ago on a palmpilot bulletin board, where someone called me that for asking if, in a decade or so, someone like Apple could come out with something that replaced the palmpilot. Guess a decade or so Apple did come out with something that replaced the palmpilot.
I came this close to quitting this forum...if it hadn't been for Lurk I would be gone.
I think AGW is the second worst problem in the world today. Once I thought Peak Oil would save us from it (as at one time did neven) but it looks like that is not the case now. Does that make me a troll?

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: May 15, 2019, 06:29:21 PM »
Here is my stupid question:
What is CO2e now?
I don't mean the definition, I mean the number. Searching I find an implication that it is still below 500 ppm but will reach it BAU within a decade of 2016:,1762.msg92315.html#msg92315
or by 2025:,1056.msg39615.html#msg39615
and an implication that it is about 720 ppm "near term":,143.msg196439.html#msg196439
Either I am misreading the messages, or they substantially disagree.
Can anyone give me current CO2e?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 15, 2019, 02:01:20 PM »
Human Habitat Index:
Thanks! Bookmarked article.

Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: May 02, 2019, 05:01:15 PM »
The Anthropocene could last a long time:
Released Carbon (Gton)        pCO2 (100,000 AD)
300                                      ~290
1000                                    ~320
2000                                    ~350
5000                                    ~550
Figure 1

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: April 29, 2019, 08:11:36 PM »
wdnm said:
On the other hand, even Americans are starting to wake up to what is happening. The next 10 years will be full of more awakenings, and quite certainly attempts at massive political responses. Whether they will succeed or fail is another thing.

Juan C. García said:
So what do I expect for 2030? Global consciousness on the importance of Anthropogenic Global Warming. I hope this will happen on 2019, though!

Maybe. But I don't see it yet around where I am...alarmists are still alarming, deniers are still denying. I changed my view on AGW only because I changed my view on PO...I always knew BAU would heat up the Earth if it went on, I just was surprised how long it is going on. And as long as the political situation is as it is, I will have to reluctantly continue voting for a GOP while simultaneously crying "A pox on both parties!" If I had a candidate who agreed with me on all issues it would be different, but I guess the only way to do that is if each person votes for themselves. Then it would go to the House for POTUS and each congressperson would cast a vote for themselves, for example. Nobody would get elected.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: April 20, 2019, 01:39:23 PM »
Here is my experience with the media:
From 1992 to 2010 I worked at Brendan Manor, a group home in Garfield Heights. A local television station spent a whole shift filming me for a feature on hiring people with Asperger's (I am like Sheldon Cooper, except he has an IQ of 196 and mine is 126, and he is a neat aspie and I am a messy aspie). I scrupulously tried to answer every question truthfully and completely, as did my boss.
In the feature, IIRC, there were two factual errors.
Maybe it was because they made the story sound better? When I was in the Astronomy program I read an example (possibly apocryphal) of an astronomer and a newspaper. It was the days of the first moon shots and the reporter was writing an article on the Moon. He asked what those dark areas were and the astronomer said they were believed to be vast plains of quickly frozen lava, like obsidian. The reporter asked what obsidian was and the astronomer said it was a form of natural glass. Then the reporter asked what he craters were from, and the astronomer said they were believed to be caused by the impact of meteoroids. The next day the astronomer was horrified to read himself cited as the source for an article headlined NEW SCIENTIFIC THEORY - MOON MADE OF BROKEN GLASS.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 20, 2019, 01:00:28 PM »
Rising groundwater at coastlines, river mouths from sea level rise is making those places less habitable:

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 19, 2019, 04:22:23 AM »

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: April 17, 2019, 05:20:47 AM »
The Arctic is also releasing Nitrous Oxide...twelve times as much as thought:

Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: April 16, 2019, 12:48:21 PM »
gerontocrat, it has been warned for a lot more than a decade. I once read a "Golden Age" scifi story where explorers went to Venus to get antibiotics from the fungus jungles and swamps of the planet, because overuse of antibiotics had made all terrestrial ones useless.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 10, 2019, 08:09:48 PM »
Sam who?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 10, 2019, 05:28:15 AM »
As a Newbie, let me see if I got this graph straight:,2591.msg194492.html#msg194492
As of April 9, the Arctic Sea Ice extent is the lowest it has been for this date in the last seven years, and presumably for all of human history back at least to the Sangamon Interglacial, if not the Pliocene?

Consequences / Blue Ocean Event by Dave Borlace
« on: April 10, 2019, 02:14:21 AM »
Is this video a reasonable depiction of what a BOE would mean?

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