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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:28:09 PM »
Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney
Companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.
Mark Carney also told the Guardian it was possible that the global transition needed to tackle the climate crisis could result in an abrupt financial collapse. He said the longer action to reverse emissions was delayed, the more the risk of collapse would grow.
Do you own stock in a vulnerable company? Are you employed by a vulnerable company

This Is What Adapting to Climate Change Looks Like
California has always promised Americans a glimpse of the future. But this week, the Golden State is forecasting a future that nobody wants to live in.
Millions of people across California lost their power this week, after the local utility Pacific Gas and Electric intentionally shut off electrical lines to avoid starting wildfires in dangerously dry and windy conditions.
Try living without power for a few days. Preferably in a heat wave.

Forty Percent of Pennsylvania Bird Species Are Vulnerable to Climate Change
“Forty percent of Pennsylvania’s 227 bird species are vulnerable to climate change,” said Greg Goldman, executive director of Audubon PA.  “Extreme spring heat is the greatest concern.”
The sound of the Great Horned Owl – so common in the woods of Pennsylvania today – could be less common if carbon emissions aren’t brought under control, said Goldman.
Another common sight in the region’s wetlands is the American black duck – not actually black but brown with a splash of purple on its wing.
“It’s a really iconic water bird, it’s here summer and winter,” said Beth Brown, director of Audubon PA’s Delaware River Watershed Program. “It’s kind of out there doing its job providing services in the ecosystem and it’s sort of your typical American duck.”
Brown says the American black duck is one of hundreds of birds nationwide that could lose habitat from a changing climate. Some are moving north, but that may not be an option for all of them.
Silent spring could happen even without DDT, just CO2.

Higher temperatures driving 'alarming' levels of hunger – report
Extreme weather events are putting food production and security in jeopardy and the risk is expected to increase. Food production is likely to fall due to higher temperatures, water scarcity, greater CO2 and extreme weather events. Yields of maize and wheat are already declining.
Global Hunger Index says progress isn't happening fast enough
A new report finds that the fight to end global hunger is being put at risk by the changing climate’s effect on agriculture.
And that blizzard in the United States we just had has ruined our season's late harvest.

Indigenous farming practices failing as climate change disrupts seasons
Climate change is upending millions of people’s lives, yet few communities are seeing their crops and worldviews crumble quite like those that rely on indigenous weather forecasting. Dependent in many cases on millennia-old trial and error, as well as analyses of the landscape to gauge planting cycles, their fields are withering as the conditions on which the calendars are predicated change. Without that accumulated wisdom to fall back on—bird migrations, wind direction, stars, and more—farmers are feeling particularly defenseless just as other consequences of climate change complicate their lives.
We will all see our eternal verities go by the wayside as climate changes.

Japan’s Seaweed Industry Is in Jeopardy
That’s pushing up prices and threatening a cherished staple of the Japanese diet. The disruption offers an early hint of how environmental change will affect food production, forcing long-standing industries to adapt.
The problems are twofold: warming seas and not enough pollution. Climate change has led to a significant rise in water temperatures around Japan in recent decades. “We don’t know the causes for sure, but I think the biggest factor here is global warming,” says Koizumi.
Sushi is coming to an end in Japan. What else will soon come to an end?

'I'm standing here in the middle of climate change': How USDA is failing farmers
But the Agriculture Department is doing little to help farmers adapt to what experts predict is the new norm: increasingly extreme weather across much of the U.S. The department, which has a hand in just about every aspect of the industry, from doling out loans to subsidizing crop insurance, spends just 0.3 percent of its $144 billion budget helping farmers adapt to climate change, whether it’s identifying the unique risks each region faces or helping producers rethink their practices so they’re better able to withstand extreme rain and periods of drought.
And this year is already the worst for extreme farming weather in the USA in decades, if not ever.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 10, 2019, 01:32:13 PM »
The choice was between Hillary and the Donald.
Hillary was actively promoting the murder of something like a million preborn babies a year in the United States. A baby is far more important than any furbish lousewort (or even a mongoose).
How could I not vote for him?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:08:21 PM »
I get your point, Glen, but I vote as if my soul depends on it.
That's why this pro-life voter voted for Kasich in the Primary but Trump in the election (and hated it)>

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 04, 2019, 04:40:23 PM »
‘Prepare now or pay later’: Financial regulators must account for climate change risk to corporate bottom lines, Citigroup says
Financial regulators must transform how they account for the economic risks of climate change, Citigroup said in a new report Wednesday.
The report on climate risk comes shortly after a slew of extreme weather events across the world.
Most recently, Hurricane Dorian stalled over and decimated the Bahamas, and raging wildfires have destroyed a large swath of Amazon and Bolivian rainforests.
For major companies across the world, trillions of dollars are at stake as climate change threatens to disrupt their supply chains.
A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you are talking real money.

Amazon wildfires causing spike in children's breathing problems
Wildfires raging in the Amazon rainforest are driving a spike in breathing problems and hospitalizations among children in Brazil, according to a new report.
The fires, which have now been burning for months, are posing "a major risk to the health of the population," said the report, published Wednesday by public health research institute Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
My cousin in Colorado commented how bad the air was there from the fires, and Colorado doesn't hold a candle to Brazil.

Heartbreaking photos show emaciated grizzly bears wandering through the Canadian wilderness after freak salmon shortage caused by warming waters and open fish farming - just one month before they're supposed to go into hibernation
Shocking photos of an emaciated mother grizzly bear and her two starving cubs have gone viral
Photographer Rolf Hicker snapped the animals searching for food on the Knight Inlet in British Columbia
He said he saw the bears several times, desperately searching for food amid a salmon shortage
Commercial fishermen in British Columbia have called this year the worst salmon season in nearly 50 years
A report by Fisheries and Oceans Canada said that climate change is negatively impacting the fish stocks
Each little hole in the ecoweb weakens the natural environment a little more. Eventually it will collapse.

Record Heat Thrusts Hawaii Corals Into ‘New Era’ Of Bleaching
The reefs have never had to endure such conditions. Marine scientists remain optimistic but warn that time is running out for society to step up.
Corals survived the Permian Extinction. Will they survive the Holocene Extinction?

Tracking the Atlantic Ocean's Inland Creep in Miami-Dade County
Rising seas are a visible threat to coastal areas. But the danger above is mirrored below in the form of rising salt concentrations in many coastal aquifers. In Miami-Dade County, the USGS study mapped the boundary where salt water meets the base of the Biscayne. Because it is less dense, fresh water sits on top of the saltwater wedge, which is thickest near the coast and thinner inland
Will it be "Water, water, everywhere, and nary a drop to drink?

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground
A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.
The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.
You would think Siberia would welcome warmer weather, but this shows the answer is "Nope!"

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:39:20 PM »
In Saratoga Springs, experts talk climate change impacts on invasive species
“Longer growing seasons are virtually certain,” said Bethany Bradley, an associate professor of ecology at the University of Massachusetts. With longer seasons due to earlier springs, almost all plants will do better. And  more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can also promote plant growth. But invasive species – plants, insects or animals — are so-named in part because of their ability to out-compete other species.
Good news/Bad news joke:
Good news - in the long run invasive species are good for biodiversity.
Bad news - the long run is about ten million years.

Soaring eagle films crumbling Alpine glaciers as Earth warms
Disintegrating permafrost, which now glues a glacier’s rocks together, can cause them to crumble with potentially devastating consequences.
Victor’s flight comes as Italian authorities are scrambling to respond to fears that part of a large Italian glacier near Mont Blanc is on the verge of collapsing. They’ve warned that falling ice could endanger homes and people in the Val Ferret area, a popular hiking area.
At the rate the planet is warming, it’s too late to save the Alps’ glaciers, Freedom Conservation Managing Director Ronald Menzel said. But it’s not too late to fight climate change more broadly. He hopes Victor’s popularity will spur viewers into action.
There are no glaciers within a couple thousand miles of me. Someday there may be none anywhere.

Climate change is coming for our toilets. Here’s how we can stop it.
While the report is not specifically about your bathroom, per se, it shows how a stealthy threat — sea-level rise — could make it more difficult for people with septic systems to flush their toilets. A brief primer on septic systems, which are common in rural areas: The stuff in your toilet goes into an underground tank, where it breaks down (I’m gagging) and gets drained out into a leach field (gross) that’s at least 20 feet from your house. In order to function properly, those drainage fields have to be relatively dry.
My late uncle had a septic tank and had all kinds of problems with it even without sea level rise (he lived in Ohio like me). This is one problem I would not want.

STORM FORCE Storm Lorenzo – Climate change expert’s grim warning for Ireland as he predicts Storm Lorenzo is ‘sign of things to come’
Dr O'Dwyer said that as the earth heats up as a result of climate change, there is more moisture in the atmosphere than cooler air - which is then available to storm systems.
He told the Irish Sun: "As the earth warms as a result of manmade climate change, the atmosphere can contain more moisture than cooler air.
"This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfall. Climate projections suggest an increase in the occurrence of hurricanes into the future."
And he cautioned that Ireland is not ready to feel the force of such weather events.
284 years passed between the Great Storms of 1703 and 1987. How long till the next one?

n Houston, a Rash of Storms Tests the Limits of Coping With Climate Change
Houston’s challenge reflects the dilemma facing cities everywhere: As the climate changes, disasters aren’t just becoming more severe, but also more frequent. So even as the amount of damage increases, governments and residents have less time to repair before the next storm hits. And structural changes that might reduce cities’ exposure require years or decades to complete.
And by the time those adaptations are installed, the effects have grown even greater still.

Washington's coastal tribes are working to escape rising sea levels. A bill in D.C. could help
For the Native tribes that have historically lived along Washington’s Pacific coast, the threat of rising waters is real and imminent. As a result, many must grapple with the forced relocation of entire villages to higher ground before their homes are submerged.
D.C. might be able to pay for thousands of Indians to move. Will they be able to pay for millions of people?

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: October 02, 2019, 06:00:56 PM »
Well, it sure was hot as a place that rhymes with smell here in Twinsburg yesterday.

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 01, 2019, 07:43:43 PM »
AGW Consequences for October 1

Climate Change Is Decimating Mojave Desert Birds
We found out last year that hotter, drier weather due to climate change is likely causing bird populations in the Mojave Desert to collapse at an alarming rate. A new study published today suggests one big reason why: Birds are having a hard time staying hydrated, which means they're having a hard time staying cool.
Over the past century, temperatures in the Mojave Desert have risen about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, while precipitation has declined in some parts. That's coincided with a roughly 40 percent decrease in the number of bird species documented there.
I would have expected the Mojave to have warmed less than that, since it would not be subject to Arctic Amplification

U.S. taxpayers are at risk for homes threatened by climate change
Banks are selling mortgages on homes in coastal areas around the U.S. that are vulnerable to natural disasters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a study finds.
That could leave taxpayers footing the bill because the two government-sponsored enterprises buy the mortgages without adequately accounting for the heightened property risks.
"Climate change could lead to a 'Big Short' kind of crisis," one of the study's authors said.
Are you an American taxpayer? If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

A new United Nations report states that rising sea levels could render as many as 60 million toilets inoperable in the United States alone, as traditional septic systems are threatened by increased groundwater.
About 1 in 5 American households rely on septic systems to handle their toilet waste, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. These systems work by draining flushed toilets into an underground tank, where bacteria breaks it down into water and solid sludge. That water moves through an outflow tube into a drainage field.
However, as sea levels rise, those drainage fields are becoming saturated, preventing them from absorbing liquid from septic tanks. In addition, erosion removes the necessary soft earth to filter out pollutants, resulting in public health hazards and groundwater contamination.
I never thought toilet flushing would be a problem.
I have nightmares about not being able to flush the toilet!

At a Cambodian Lake, a Climate Crisis Unfolds
A trifecta of climate change, hydropower dams and illegal fishing are threatening the Tonle Sap, and the people who rely on its fish.
Illegal fishing might yield to more law enforcement, and maybe dams can be prevented by civil action, but AGW is a toughie.

Climate Change Threatens the World’s Fisheries, Food Billions of People Rely On
Fisheries are often overlooked when researchers and policymakers focus on land-based agriculture as the primary food source for a growing global population, yet fish are an essential protein source for 3.2 billion people and provide 17 percent of the world's animal protein. They're especially important in some developing tropical countries that rely on fish for 70 percent of their nutrition.
"The changes in the oceans will have direct impacts on people who are depending on these systems for food," said William Cheung, a professor from the University of British Columbia and a lead author of the report's chapter covering fisheries.
The scientists determined that the sustainable fish catch—the amount of fish that can be caught without decimating populations—could drop by as much as a quarter by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory.
Of course those developing countries in the Tropics have some of the fastest growth rates of anyplace on Earth.

Calm Before the Storm
The chance of a nuclear accident releasing significant radioactivity and harming the public is “very small,” according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the federal agency whose mission is, in part, “to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety.” But as sea levels rise, a flawed understanding of climate science and the outsize influence that the U.S. nuclear industry exerts on the NRC have converged, increasing the risk of disastrous flood-induced accidents at coastal nuclear power plants around the United States.
How about a coastal Chernobyl at your favorite seaside site?

'We know they aren't feeding': fears for polar bears over shrinking Arctic ice
The loss of Arctic ice from glaciers, polar land and sea is increasing faster than many scientists expected, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report on oceans and the cryosphere said this week.
That’s bad news for polar bear populations, a top expert involved in field studies on the endangered animals has told the Guardian.
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6m sq miles, and badly affected polar bear populations that live and hunt on the north slope of Alaska, plus those that live on the ice floes in the Bering Sea.
How did polar bears survive the Eemian? Or hadn't they evolved yet? Or was the Eemian still filled with Arctic Ice?

Yellow Fever And Malaria In The US? With Climate Crisis, It's Within The Realm Of Possibility
"For instance, mosquitoes are animals that really depend on water in order to breed. And they also tend to be more active at higher temperatures. So as we see rising temperatures, increased rainfall worldwide, we see an increase in the range and number of mosquitoes. For example, Aedes species mosquitoes, which spread diseases like dengue, Zika virus, chikungunya, West Nile virus; currently about 50% of the world population is susceptible to being bitten by those mosquitoes. We expect that to increase as the climate continues to warm."
I wonder if I will die of one of these "tropical" diseases?

Climate change is changing the flavor of French wine
Now, a nearly 700-year-long record of harvest dates from the town of Beaune, in Burgundy, shows that early harvest dates like the one from 1540 are now par for the course, thanks to climate change. Scientists and historians stitched together a record of grape harvest dates going back to 1354. They found that air temperatures have warmed so much—and especially in the last 30 years—that grapes are now harvested almost two weeks before their historical norm.
“We can clearly see the reaction of the grapes to the rise in temperature,” says Thomas Labbé, an historian at the University of Leipzig.
And that reaction is changing the wine itself.
I only drink wine at Communion, but I still don't want it to change.

Australia’s vast carbon sink releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 back into atmosphere
Serrano said: “When these ecosystems are damaged by storms, heatwaves, dredging or other human development, the carbon dioxide stored in their biomass and soils beneath them can make its way back into the environment, contributing to climate change.
“Globally, vegetated coastal ecosystems are being lost twice as fast as tropical rainforests despite covering a fraction of the area.”
Just one more feedback of many...

The Displaced: I lost my house to climate change
Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change - we meet the families on the front lines.
How likely are you to lose your home to AGW?

Science / Re: Has climate sensitivity been under-estimated?
« on: October 01, 2019, 04:15:57 PM »
the paleosens work from 2012 also showed this non-linearity of ECS  Though they simply checked over the last 800,000 years. see:

There is no compelling reason for ECS to be linear.  As in most chemical and physical equilibria, it should decrease with increasing concentrations.

But doesn't ECS take that into account? Being the change of a doubling of CO2, instead of an addition of N trillion tons. Each increment will then be larger.

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 30, 2019, 06:58:54 PM »
New Zealand tourism sees threat if climate change deters long-haul flyers
A report on New Zealand's tourism industry says concerns about carbon emissions pose a threat to long haul travel and the industry's future.
A Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) report on Tourism New Zealand (TNZ) released on Monday highlighted the challenges it will face.
They include softening international growth, fierce competition for customers, and the risk of carbon emissions affecting travel choices, particularly for long haul trips.
More jobs lost, and less chance to travel. Not a good future.

RPT-Drought-hit Australian towns prepare for 'unimaginable' water crisis
* Some regional Australian towns have trucked in drinking water
* Several towns forecast to hit ‘day zero’ next year
* The drought is party driven by warmer sea and air temperatures
* Farm production is declining, hurting Australia’s economy
I live in the Great Lakes area, so drought is not a problem here. Even in 1988, Maple Heights had fireworks by firehosing the launch field. But not everybody is so lucky.

In Dorian's wake, Bahamas appeals for climate action at UN
As the Bahamas strives to recover from Hurricane Dorian, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis appealed to world leaders Friday to tackle climate change — and encouraged travelers to visit to help the country rebuild.
Of course that would require more tourism, exacerbating global warming and thus making more major hurricanes...

Ticks and Climate Change Impact on Moose
The devastating toll of ticks on New England's moose herd has caused the region's population to shrink, and experts worry it could get worse with climate change. The northern New England states are home to thousands of moose, but the herd has dwindled in the last decade, in part because of the winter ticks.
Don't ticks also spread disease to humans?

Climate Risk in the Housing Market Has Echoes of Subprime Crisis, Study Finds
Banks are shielding themselves from climate change at taxpayers’ expense by shifting riskier mortgages — such as those in coastal areas — off their books and over to the federal government, new research suggests.
After hurricanes, mortgage lenders offload more of their vulnerable loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose rules prevent them from saying no. Next financial crisis?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 29, 2019, 08:54:39 PM »
AGW Consequences September 29

Arctic breakdown: what climate change in the far north means for the rest of us
In the Arctic, a summer of heat, melting and fire was rounded off by news that 2019 saw the second-lowest ever minimum extent of sea ice. That’s the point in early autumn each year when scientists say that the Arctic Ocean will begin to freeze again. By that measure, only 2012 had less sea ice than this year.
Meanwhile, the IPCC’s latest special report on the oceans and cryosphere was full of bad news (the cryosphere is that part of the earth system where water occurs in its frozen form, usually as snow or ice). The region’s glacier ice is retreating, the ground is thawing, forests are becoming a fire risk. Only people in low lying islands are as vulnerable to climate change as those in the Arctic, according to the IPCC.
The Arctic was the original focus of this forum, as I understand it. But AGW will affect everybody everywhere.

A possibly historic snow storm in the West plus a heat wave in the East — what’s going on?
As the graphic above shows, the contiguous United States has seen a rising trend in the percentage of the region experiencing daily high temperatures that are much above normal. A similar rising trend has occurred in the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme one-day precipitation events.
At this point, it would be inappropriate to directly attribute both the developing northern Rockies early autumn snow storm, and the Eastern heat wave, to human-caused climate change. That kind of direct attribution takes detailed scientific detective work after the fact.
But what we’re seeing is part of a broader trend that research increasingly links to our influence on the climate.
Of course this is Arctic Amplification turning the Jet Stream from a straight line to a bunch of meandering waves. But of course the Deniers say "Two feet of snow in Colorado in September? Global Warming, BAH!"

‘Worse Than Anyone Expected’: Air Travel Emissions Vastly Outpace Predictions
Greenhouse gas emissions from commercial air travel are growing at a faster clip than predicted in previous, already dire, projections, according to new research — putting pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action as they prepare for a summit next week.

This means either we give up flying or the other consequences get a lot worse.

Arctic Sea Ice Hits 2nd Lowest on Record
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice has tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6 million square miles.
Already the Arctic Ocean is mostly ice free in September in a typical year, not a freak like 2012.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 28, 2019, 03:49:06 PM »
Fast song for tonight:

Saturday Night Bay City Rollers

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 27, 2019, 11:29:20 PM »
The problem I see in the XR actions (maybe I'm wrong), is that for a non violent campaign, the boycott strategy seems missing. I believe it is the only way to change companies is to buy only climate neutral products.

Maybe there are no substitute products that are climate neutral?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 27, 2019, 06:19:09 PM »
AGW Consequences September 27

Is Climate Change Driving Pirate Attacks in Indonesia?
According to research by Sebastian Axbard, a lecturer of economics at the Queen Mary University of London, there is a correlation between poor local fishing conditions and increases in the rate of pirate attacks in Indonesia. Fishing conditions are influenced by oceanographic conditions like water temperature and levels of phytoplankton – a key source of food for fish.
I once saw a chart comparing rising climate temperatures and declining piracy. But in renent years, piracy has been on the rise (Somalia, then others) while temperatures continue up, so I guess the correlation is bogus.

Melting permafrost in the Arctic is unlocking diseases and warping the landscape
Now it’s melting. And things are getting weird and creepy: The ground warps, folds, and caves. Roadways built on top of permafrost have becoming wavy roller coasters through the tundra. Long-dormant microbes — some trapped in the ice for tens of thousands of years — are beginning to wake up, releasing equally ancient C02, and could potentially come to infect humans with deadly diseases. And the retreating ice is exposing frozen plants that haven’t seen the sun in 45,000 years, as radiocarbon dating research suggests.
The Black Death killed something like a third of the human race in the 14th Century, and smallpox killed something like two-thirds of the Western Hemisphere in the 17th Century. Wanna open Pandora's box?

Indigenous Knowledge Puts Industrial Pollution in Perspective
Some arsenic released by Giant Mine was sequestered in sediments on lake bottoms, but some researchers say climate change could cause it to be released.
Arsenic is the stereotypical poison (Arsenic and Old Lace).Lucretia Borgia would be proud.

The Storm of the Century Could Soon Happen Every Year
According to the report, some islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as coastal cities in the Caribbean, are already seeing local sea levels rise each year to heights that used to be seen about once per century. In the best case scenario, in which global warming is limited to around 1.5 degrees, some cities along both the U.S. East and West coasts could see similar trends as early as 2035.
If that's the best case, what's the worst case?

A Plague of Cactus
What’s happening in Kenya’s Laikipia region is a case study in how degraded land—damaged by unsustainable grazing practices and harmed further by climate change—is giving invasive species a leg up. Sometime in the late 1940s or early 50s, British colonial officials planted Opuntia stricta, a cactus native to the Americas, around their outpost in the tiny town of Dol Dol, a few miles from Larpei’s homestead. The shrubby plant’s attributes—bright yellow flowers, purple bulbous fruit, and protective spines—apparently made it both ornamental and functional, as a living fence or hedge.
My fondest hope is that a hurricane gets a pregnant female Herpestes auropunctatus blown from the Caribbean to Florida, and then that global warming allows the descendants of her litter to reach Ohio.  ;D

How Climate Change Is Affecting Our Children's Health
Climate change doesn't just affect our planet's health, but also our own health — and particularly that of children. Dr. Aaron Bernstein, a pediatrician at Boston Children's Hospital, joined Boston Public Radio on Thursday to explain how climate change harms our health and which groups are affected the worst.
"The way the climate is changing has real relevance to children," Bernstein said. "What we do today is going to matter a heck of a lot more to them over their lifespans."
Children of color and children from low-income households face disproportionately negative impacts from climate change, Bernstein noted.
"Pollution is definitely affecting people of color and people who are poor across the country, and right here in Boston, more than others," he said. "If we stop burning fossil fuels and coal and oil and gas, we can get rid of those disparities. "
It is long since I was a child, and I have no children, but this still hurts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 26, 2019, 07:16:40 PM »
Here's one I could have put in the Oil & Gas thread, but just in case it's stupid, I'll put it here.
Does extracting oil and gas from underground cause subsidence? For example, is the area around the Persian Gulf sinking a millimeter or two a year, exacerbating SLR?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 26, 2019, 06:11:27 PM »
AGW consequences September 26, 2019

Why climate change is also a public health problem
Disease-carrying insects, and their habitats, spread
More heat- and cold-related deaths from extreme temperatures
Air pollution triggers battery of health problems
Mental health disorders and violence in the wake of hurricanes and floods
Also, for a personal view, first frost comes later. I used to be a miserable hay fever sufferer until I got a battery of shots.

A glacier in the Alps might collapse, thanks to global warming, officials say
Global warming has put a glacier in the Italian Alps at risk of collapse, officials warned, leading to road closures, travel restrictions, and evacuations in the immediate vicinity.

Municipal officials issued the order after surveyors observed a significant increase in the sliding speed of the Planpincieux glacier, which rests on the Italian side of the Grand Jorasses peak. The mountain is one of several in the Mont Blanc massif, which runs through Italy, France and part of Switzerland.
This is something I did not think of. I know glaciers are a part of our world and losing them would be a loss, but I thought their areas were undeveloped.

From Antarctica to the Oceans, Climate Change Damage Is About to Get a Lot Worse, IPCC Warns
As the planet warms, diverse ecosystems—from mountain glaciers to the icy Arctic to the oceans—are already seeing dangerous effects from climate change. Future warming will threaten food supplies, force the migration of countless species and dramatically change the icy regions of the world. The changes are coming. How much is up to us, scientists warn in a new report released Wednesday by the United Nations.
The article focuses most on the oceans, but also mentions other consequences. Everybody loses something. For example, in arctic areas, you think warmer weather is good? You might till the permafrost thaws under your house and it shifts and is damaged.

No Plan B: Deciding Not To Have Children Because of Climate Change
Under current projections, analysts are expecting severe environmental disruptions due to climate change by the time babies born today enter adulthood.
This forecast has some young people questioning whether to bring more children into such a world.
Some don’t want to bring children into the world who will ultimately feel the same fear they do. They also worry about the climate footprint of raising a child. And, they don’t want their children to have to live in a world struggling with flooding, fires and more frequent harsh storms.
How does raising a child affect one’s carbon footprint? What would this mean for populations already in decline? We assemble a panel to find out.
The long term number of children per couple should be the replacement level. Maybe NPG is good for a few generations, but ultimately it must be ZPG or we die out.

Alaska residents are watching climate change warm the Arctic before their very eyes
Walter Peter, a Gwich’in hunter from Fort Yukon, Alaska, stood in front of the audience under an outdoor octagon of raw logs and listed the changes he’d seen: unreliable river ice, unpredictable salmon runs, altered goose migrations, tick-infested moose, diseased caribou. He spoke in a quiet, respectful voice and was respected in return. He didn’t crack a smile until he noted “there’s nothing better than fat moose kidneys and blueberry pancakes.” But he shook his head at the thought of all that is being lost.
Every culture and subculture in the world will lose many things that they treasure if AGW is unabated.

Extreme sea level events ‘will hit once a year by 2050’
Extreme sea level events that used to occur once a century will strike every year on many coasts by 2050, no matter whether climate heating emissions are curbed or not, according to a landmark report by the world’s scientists.
The stark assessment of the climate crisis in the world’s oceans and ice caps concludes that many serious impacts are already inevitable, from more intense storms to melting permafrost and dwindling marine life.
But far worse impacts will hit without urgent action to cut fossil fuel emissions, including eventual sea level rise of more than 4 metres in the worst case, an outcome that would redraw the map of the world and harm billions of people.
I live about 1000ft/300m above sea level. But migrants from the East Coast might crowd my high ground. I will be 92 in 2050 and my uncle is already older than that, so I may make it.

What an ice-free Arctic really means, and why it matters so much
And then there's the weather around the world. The jet stream, a column of air that travels from west to east that drives weather across the northern hemisphere, relies on the temperature difference between the Arctic and the south. But when the temperature difference is not as pronounced, the jet stream begins to develop kinks. This can have widespread effects such as creating systems that prolong heat waves in southern Ontario and Quebec or even Europe, or slow hurricanes to a near standstill, as was seen with Dorian earlier this month.
So although most Canadians — and most of the world's population — live far from the Arctic, its rapid changes will have effects felt across the globe.
"I think we have an incredible capacity to adapt, but we're going to push our limits, and we're going to live in a world that is already difficult for very many," Crowley said. But, he added, bluntly, "Of course we can better prepare, and be better at giving ourselves a chance at being resilient, but we need to stop crapping in our own bed."
Superstorm Sandy may have been enabled by the record small arctic sea ice, one poster saud to me here, so this might already be beginning.

Canadian fishermen feel effects of climate change as world panel sounds alarm bell
Boris Worm, a professor of marine biology at Halifax's Dalhousie University, contributed science that was assessed in the new report.
Worm said if the world continues on the current path, there will be 17 per cent less marine life globally on average by the end of the century.
Ocean temperatures change very slowly (thermal inertia), so I imagine there might be more like 70 percent less land life?

Panthera: At least 500 jaguars lost their lives or habitat in Amazon fires
he fires in the Amazon forest in Brazil and Bolivia this year have burned key habitats of at least 500 adult, resident jaguars as of September 17, experts at Panthera, the global wild cat conservation organization, estimate. The numbers will continue to increase until the rains come, researchers say.
In Bolivia in particular, the fires have so far destroyed over 2 million hectares of forest in one of South America’s key “catscape”, a region that Panthera has identified as having the highest predicted density of cat species on the continent.
Panthera researchers also predict that many more jaguars will also likely starve or turn to killing livestock in neighboring ranches as a consequence of the fires, likely increasing conflict with the ranchers.
Wildfires are more likely in a warmer world. Which will release more CO2. Making the world still warmer...

Peters doesn’t think this is caused by an insect or a disease that spreads from tree to tree.
A study by Cornell University published this year found that weather-related stress like drought and severe cold could be an underlying cause. 
Peters doesn’t believe that’s the whole story. She has other theories, including increased rainfall or certain herbicides. A variety of stressors could be working together to lead to Rapid Apple Decline. 
“We just don’t know,” Peters said.
If AGW is part of it it is likely to get worse. I eat an apple a day(macintosh in the morning), so this is something I would not like.

Mountain Regions, ‘Taking the Heat,’ Face Growing Hazards As Ice Melts, UN Climate Panel Warns
Melting glacial ice, driven by man-made temperature changes, is disrupting the supply of water, food, and energy downstream while raising the risk of landslides, floods, and other natural hazards in the Alps, Andes, Caucasus, Himalayas, and other major mountain ranges. Along with the collapse of ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, the meltwaters also contribute to an accelerating rise in sea levels. In the Arctic, permafrost is weakening, causing land to slump and destabilizing roads and structures.
My cousin Sharon and her husband Bill live in Colorado. Bill is a ski instructor. At least he is now, if there is no skiing in a few years...
PS If you come here after I edit this post, please understand. I am not eager to list 10 links with quotes and comments, only to have the power blink or my computer time out or something on the ninth link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 25, 2019, 09:39:24 PM »
How much power does the open source dictator have?

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 09:35:10 PM »
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.

Wow. That's very nice to read Tom :).

I guess what you learned in computer science in 1983 became outdated very fast? (technology)
I learned computing first as an Astronomy student.
We used punched cards.
Each card punch had something wrong with it. One could not punch "e"s so you could only use it for numerical data, another passed two cards for each one punched, so you had to take a card out and put it back, a third jumped a column after each character and you had to backspace...
Then we ran a shoebox full of cards through the reader, and went out for another class or lunch or studyhall or whatever. Come back an hour or two later when they put your printout into a cubbyhole numbered the last two digits of your student number.
Then you deciphered the hexadecimal error codes on the newpaper sized printout, debug the program, and do it all over again.
Yes, technology has changed!

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:18:31 PM »
Well, I was born March 5,1958. I am certainly not a younger anything.
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.
I have been a lover of science all my life. When I was a toddler I insisted on getting toy ray guns. My coin bank was a rocket which shot the coins into the slot. I earned a B.S. in Astronomy in 1989 and another B.S. in Computer and Information Science in 1983.
As for why someone else would ignore science, your guess is as good as mine.

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 06:27:25 PM »
Not only is it easier, but it gives me more time for what Neven calls "interesting discussions".

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2019, 06:24:18 PM »
I feel that just replicating Daily Climate is not what I want to do. I feel consequences are the most important items. So I will focus on those.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 25, 2019, 05:22:41 PM »
KK, cities are not points. One part of a city may be a hundred feet above sea level, and another neighborhood may be seven inches above sea level.

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: September 25, 2019, 04:41:02 PM »
AGW Consequences September 25

Climate change could stretch our capabilities, Defence Force chief speech warns
Key points:
The Defence Chief's speech warns of the threat climate change poses to Australia's military and deployments
The speech was prepared for General Angus Campbell for an invitation-only event in regional NSW
It stated that climate change disasters have required more Australian personnel than the Afghan war
My cousin was in the army in Europe and took part in helping recovery in Italy from an earthquake, so the military is on the frontlines of disasters.
Could Massive Storm Surge Barriers End the Hudson River’s Revival?
As threats from major storms increase, authorities are proposing surge barriers to protect New York Harbor. Some ecologists are concerned these giant barriers could have serious consequences for the Hudson, now hailed for its much-heralded recovery, and for other area waters.
They will have to put up such barriers, but they will have unintended consequences. Trying to prevent flooding damage (which will only work for a short time as SLR continues) will at the same time harm the ecology.

Zimbabwe’s capital runs dry as taps cut off for 2M people
Tempers flared on Tuesday as more than 2 million residents of Zimbabwe’s capital and surrounding towns found themselves without water after authorities shut down the main treatment plant, raising new fears about disease after a cholera outbreak while the economy crumbles even more.

Officials in Harare have struggled to raise foreign currency to import water treatment chemicals; about $2.7 million is needed per month. Meanwhile, water levels in polluted reservoirs are dropping because of drought.
No particular drought can be blamed on AGW. However, AGW does increase the likelihood of droughts in many parts of the world (for example, the western half of the contiguous US, or southern Europe, IIRC). This could be the city your children live in.

World's oceans are losing power to stall climate change
The special report on oceans and ice by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that without steep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, fisheries will falter, the average strength of hurricanes will increase, and rising seas will increase the risk of flooding in low-lying areas around the globe.
They also upped their SLR estimate for 2100 to 1.1 meters. AS has been noted elsewhere here, the IPCC is, if anything, conservative.

Fire threat brings power cuts to thousands in California
Tens of thousands of Northern Californians will find themselves without electricity Wednesday as Pacific Gas & Electric cuts power to reduce the threat of hot, dry, gusty weather knocking down power lines and sparking wildfires.
A year or two ago, we had a blackout here in Twinsburg for half a week, so I know these kind of things are an angina in the gluteus maximus. and as hot, dry weather becomes more prevalent, such anginas will become more common.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 25, 2019, 01:41:35 PM »
I will post my AGW news items in my "Worst Consequences of AGW" thread.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 24, 2019, 09:54:18 PM »
Tropical Storm Imelda left 5 dead in Texas and many flooded. Will FEMA aid come next?
Five deaths are linked to floods from Tropical Storm Imelda, the worst storm in Texas since Hurricane Harvey and one of the wettest tropical cyclones in the nation’s history, according to the National Weather Service.

Imelda dumped as much as 43 inches of rain in some parts of southeast Texas, according to the National Weather Service. In comparison, Harvey dropped about 60 inches of rain.

Policy and solutions / Re: Why some still "DENY" and others "FAIL TO ACT"
« on: September 24, 2019, 09:02:45 PM »
White evangelical Christians in particular are, on average, more likely to question whether human activity contributed to the Earth's warming, with research by Pew suggesting 28 percent accept this view, compared with 64 percent of those without a religious affiliation, 56 percent of black Protestants and 41 percent of mainline Protestants. Over a third of evangelical Christians say there is "no solid evidence" that climate change is happening.

The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: September 24, 2019, 08:16:40 PM »
Every Group Except Older Republicans Is Concerned About Climate Change
But the poll also finds a significant generational divide within the GOP: 69% of Republicans under age 45 describe themselves as at least somewhat concerned about climate change, compared to just 38% of those age 45 and older. There’s not a similar difference based on age among Democrats.

YOUTH DEMONSTRATORS stormed streets across the world demanding drastic action on the climate crisis on Friday, following a visit by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg on Capitol Hill last week to press lawmakers to view rising greenhouse gases as an existential problem that requires an immediate response.

Behind closed doors, across town in Washington, D.C., Republican lawmakers, including leadership, huddled with the fossil fuel industry, maintaining the very ties that bind U.S. policymakers and prevent them from addressing climate change.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 23, 2019, 09:05:58 PM »
A nice smooth one:

Red Rubber Ball The Cyrkle

The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: September 23, 2019, 09:01:39 PM »
No matter how small?
Radioactive atoms decay randomly. No computer will be able to predict when an atom will decay.
And the butterflies grow and multiply from there.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:04:28 PM »
When you have to refute a bad denier argument in the media, here is a good crib sheet:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 23, 2019, 04:45:16 AM »
Gonna Get Along Without You Now:

Skeeter Davis

Patience and Prudence

+++ Fridays for Future global climate strike — live updates +++
Millions of people have participated in some 5,000 events in 156 countries throughout the day Friday
The rallies are timed to come ahead of a UN climate summit and inspired by the 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg
The marches culminated in New York, where Thunberg is leading a march to the UN headquarters

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 21, 2019, 01:32:45 AM »
'We declare our support for Extinction Rebellion': an open letter from Australia's academics
We therefore declare our support for the Extinction Rebellion (XR) movement and the global week of non-violent civil disobedience and disruption planned for October. We stand behind XR’s demands for the Australian government to declare a climate emergency and to establish a citizens’ assembly to work with scientists on the basis of current evidence to develop a credible and just plan for rapid total decarbonisation of the economy.

Patagonia enlists teen activists to speak out for Global Climate Strike campaign
It comes as no surprise that Patagonia decided to close its doors on Friday for a few hours so its employees can march alongside young activists in the Global Climate Strike. But the brand is also doing something for Climate Week that it rarely does: paying for advertising.

In order to raise awareness for Climate Week, Patagonia has created a new campaign featuring teen activists from around America and the world, telling Congress and other leaders that there is no room in government for climate deniers.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: September 21, 2019, 01:27:28 AM »
Teens pledge to stop having babies over climate change
As a result, Lim started a website where people can pledge to abstain from having children until “the government can ensure a safe future for them.” The site has garnered almost 1,000 pledges as of Thursday morning.

“It breaks my heart, but I created this pledge because I know I am not alone,” Lim writes on the site. “I am not the only young person giving up lifelong dreams because they are unsure of what the future will hold. We’ve read the science, and now we’re pleading with our government.”

Her fellow pledges echoed her sentiment with one environmental abstainer from Germany saying “I see it as irresponsible to bring children into such dangers.”

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: September 21, 2019, 01:21:19 AM »
Williamson: Climate change result of an 'amoral' economic system
Presidential candidate and author Marianne Williamson described climate change as one symptom of an “amoral” economic system at MSNBC’s climate forum at Georgetown University on Thursday.

Williamson blamed what she called a "virulent strain of capitalism that puts short-term shareholder profit before all else, before the safety and welfare of the workers, before the safety and welfare of the environment."

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: September 21, 2019, 12:13:20 AM »
To decarbonize we must decomputerize: why we need a Luddite revolution
To understand the relationship between data and climate, the best place to start is machine learning (ML). Billions of dollars are being spent on researching, developing, and deploying ML because major breakthroughs in the past decade have made it a powerful tool for pattern recognition, whether analyzing faces or predicting consumer preferences. ML “learns” by training on large quantities of data. Computers are stupid: babies know what a face is within the first few months of being alive. For a computer to know what a face is, it must learn by looking at millions of pictures of faces.
This is a demanding process. It takes place inside the data centers we call the cloud, and much of the electricity that powers the cloud is generated by burning fossil fuels. As a result, ML has a large carbon footprint. In a recent paper that made waves in the ML community, a team at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, found that training a model for natural-language processing – the field that helps “virtual assistants” like Alexa understand what you’re saying – can emit as much as 626,155lb of carbon dioxide. That’s about the same amount produced by flying roundtrip between New York and Beijing 125 times.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: September 18, 2019, 10:03:49 PM »
Great read. There is a mature planetary system with millions of times our dust level... implying collision of Earth sized planets.

Walking the walk / Re: Meat Consumption and Global Warming
« on: September 18, 2019, 08:26:41 PM »
Meat is murder. But you know that already
In his new essay collection, “We Are the Weather," Jonathan Safran Foer turns his attention to the climate crisis. Mark Bittman weighs in.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 18, 2019, 08:10:36 PM »
Climate activist Greta Thunberg used her superpower of shaming adults on Senate Democrats
“Please save your praise, we don’t want it,” said Thunberg, the 16-year-old Swede who has become the most recognizable and influential face of the youth climate movement. “Don’t invite us here to tell us how inspiring we are without doing anything about it. We don’t want to be invited to these kinds of meetings because, honestly, they don’t lead to anything.”

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:58:20 PM »
Indigenous communities, wildlife under threat as farms invade Nicaraguan reserve
Nicaragua’s Bosawás Biosphere Reserve straddles the country’s border with Honduras and was declared a UNESCO site in 1997. It comprises one of the largest contiguous rainforest regions in Latin America north of the Amazon Basin and includes 21 ecosystems and six types of forest that are home to a multitude of species, several of which are threatened with extinction.
According to a report by the Nicaraguan environmental agency MARENA, a little more than 15 percent of the Bosawás reserve had been cleared and converted for agricultural use in 2000. But today, that number stands at nearly 31 percent. Satellite data show deforestation reached the heart of the reserve’s core zone earlier this year.
Deforestation in Bosawás stems mainly from migration, as people in other parts of the country move to the region looking for fertile land and space to raise cattle and grow crops.
Indigenous communities are allowed to own land within Bosawás. But sources say land traffickers are selling plots of land to non-indigenous farmers and ranchers, creating conflicts that have caused death on both sides.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:31:05 PM »
What we lose when animals go extinct
One way to think of a species, be it of ape or of ant, is as an answer to a puzzle: how to live on planet Earth. A species’ genome is a sort of manual; when the species perishes, that manual is lost. We are, in this sense, plundering a library—the library of life. Instead of the Anthropocene, Wilson has dubbed the era we are entering the Eremozoic—the age of loneliness.

Texas Charges Oil Port Protesters Under New Fossil Fuel Protection Law
This could be the first test of a wave of laws enacted in several states in recent years targeting protests over pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure.

German bus operator offers free trips to climate protests
For those planning to attend climate change demonstrations this September, a German bus company is offering free travel.

Flixbus is Germany's biggest intercity bus company and on Monday they unveiled the plan as part of its goal to become carbon-neutral by 2030.

Most American teens are frightened by climate change, poll finds, and about 1 in 4 are taking action
In a coastal town in Washington state, climate change has a high school junior worried about the floods that keep deluging his school. A 17-year-old from Texas says global warming scares him so much he can’t even think about it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: September 18, 2019, 07:12:02 PM »
Climate change: Germany's conservatives mull doubling air travel tax
Germany's ruling conservatives have proposed doubling taxes on domestic flights, as part of a wider package to cut CO2 emissions.

The decision was taken by the leadership of the Christian Democrats (CDU), who form a coalition with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD).

Tax of €7.38 (£6.5; $8.1) per ticket is currently levied on domestic flights.

Connecting flights that are part of long-haul journey will be exempt.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 18, 2019, 06:43:49 PM »
And I missed speaking Dutch by one branch on the language tree!

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:54:14 PM »
Wouldn’t it be great if Greta were a poster here?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:46:00 AM »
Here is a "bubblegummy" one you didn't hear very often, now or back in the day, that I love:

You've Got To Be Loved The Montanas

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 16, 2019, 10:17:11 PM »
So the last melt was 1209, back in the Medieval Warm Spell?

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:30:02 PM »
Facing a possible Climate Apocalypse: How should we live? (commentary)
We live today under threat of Climate Apocalypse. But two world wars, genocides, the Bomb and untold suffering around the globe reported daily have all perhaps dulled our senses and our resolve; resulted in elders – especially our leaders – failing to face humanity’s ultimate existential crisis.
More than 30 years after the Climate Emergency was publicly declared by climatologist James Hansen, disasters multiply – record heat, drought, deluge, rising seas. But climate change deniers hold sway in the U.S. and abroad, with almost no nations on Earth on target to achieve their deeply inadequate Paris Agreement goals.
Now an even higher imperative has emerged, as new studies point not just to escalating risk, but toward potential doom. Understandingly, young people are angry and openly rebelling against their elders. The young point to a failure to act, and declare: there is no time for politics and business as usual. They’re right.
Humanity’s only way out – the path to saving civilization, and much of life on Earth – is to act as though our lives, and our children’s lives, depend on it. Because they do. And one more thing: we mustn’t give up hope. This post is a commentary. Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily Mongabay.

Policy and solutions / Re: Insurance Industry Policies and Climate Change
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:26:50 PM »
The Climate Crisis Is Poised to Make Huge Swaths of America Totally Uninsurable
“People are going to be trapped because once it’s uninsurable, good luck selling the house,” one climate expert cautioned.

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