Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Tom_Mazanec

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 11
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 02:56:03 PM »
I am sure Li Wenliang is glad they immediately took him seriously.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 18, 2020, 01:35:15 PM »
I have abstained from lab originated virus posts on this thread (read one just today). Twice I have offered to revoke my 5% probability estimate in regards to this in PM conversations with members, but they could not document their assertions.
Today I read in Nature Medicine a study proving covid-19 is natural.
I hereby amend my estimate of lab origin to zero.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: March 14, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
I was worried about coronavirus with regards to food supplies, but now I think it might be a slight alleviating factor in this regard.
- The collapsing oil price disincentivises the use of foodstuffs as biofuels, and also makes fertiliser, food transport and various other farming related activity cheaper.
- The reduction in particulate emissions in countries in lockdown should help crop growth, livestock health etc.
- Assuming we do, sadly, see millions of deaths worldwide, we can also expect to see a small commensurate dent in food consumption.
Maybe. But these kind of interaction webs are complicated and often unintuitive so it could go either way.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 12, 2020, 02:35:40 AM »

Sweet Blindness - The 5th Dimension

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 11, 2020, 01:09:37 PM »
But, we can learn from this for the future.
The only thing we usually learn from history is that we do not learn from history.

C. If you think climate change is the number one topic, you certainly belong in this forum.

Tom has repeatedly stated his number 1 issue is not climate change. It is abortion.
And AGW is number 2, out of literally scores of competing issues.
I tried to keep this out of the forum as Neven asked. When a poster vilified me on my views on right to life in a thread that had nothing to do with that, I did not reply...and another poster called him to task. But Neven opened this with his blanket statement re Sanders. I will now drop the issue on this forum.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 11, 2020, 12:02:58 AM »
Hope you’re right, but billionaires have a funny way of getting their way in this country.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 06, 2020, 05:16:36 PM »

The Pipkins - Gimme Dat Ding

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 05, 2020, 12:50:13 PM »
My cousin/guardian called me this morning and sang Happy Birthday to me. On various days three cousins and one aunt are/have taking/taken me to restaurants.
When is your birthday, nanning?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 04, 2020, 08:18:05 PM »

Windy - The Association

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 03, 2020, 11:16:44 PM »
Earth may end up looking like this place with enough AGW:

Venus - Shocking Blue

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 03, 2020, 09:04:44 AM »
Day after tomorrow I'll be 62.
Two years and two days early:

When I'm Sixty Four - The Beatles

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 11:02:06 PM »
If 200 million Americans get this in one season and 7% of them need intensive care those 7% will die because we don’t have the ICU units.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 01, 2020, 02:12:17 AM »
Welcome back, vox_mundi. I was getting worried.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 07:07:50 PM »
Right, Terry.

And by putting the markets above this pandemic, Trump will actively kill tens of thousands if not millions of Americans. As if he hadn't enough blood on his hands already...

But hey, there are abortions, so who cares, right? Heil our great pro-life leader Trump!

A POTUS (either party) has a little power to make things a little better and a lot of power to make things a lot worse.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 12:02:56 AM »
I thought I might get some “wisdom of crowds” with the poll. Believe it or not I try to take peoples suggestions here to heart. I attempted to remove the poll and was unable to...I could reset it to zero but that would be kind of pointless. I asked Neven to do so and he wants to wait a week.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2020, 07:12:54 PM »
I asked Neven to remove it above, and he said he will keep it for a week.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 24, 2020, 11:58:37 PM »
Which does not actually tell you that much more. Just more forecasts.

A big difference with the ice forecasts is that they involved a lot of discussion of the way the people arrived at their numbers which was interesting because it might teach us something.
Besides, if people are voting “just for kicks” there is no point to it.
I tried to remove it but don’t see how.
Neven, please remove the poll.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 23, 2020, 12:04:16 PM »
We will be getting a lot less of this with AGW:

Simon & Garfunkel - A Hazy Shade Of Winter

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 21, 2020, 09:46:40 PM »
Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital
Several doctors from Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19, said last week that it is possible for recovered patients to contract the virus a second time. They warned that a recurring infection could be even more damaging to a patient's body and that the tests are susceptible to false negatives.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 21, 2020, 04:52:24 PM »
I think the big difference between 1918 and 2020 is that now people are highly dependent on a global, just-in-time trade system. Back then most people lived on farms, and cities had sizable supplies of food and other essentials.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 19, 2020, 12:00:46 PM »
I have given my favorite 500  ;D
Here are my Father's favorite two:

El Paso - Marty Robbins

Mr. Bojangles - Nitty Gritty Dirt Band

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 18, 2020, 10:38:00 PM »

Summer Nights - Grease

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 18, 2020, 01:26:23 PM »
Coronavirus: The Calm Before The Storm?
Good updates on the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic (aka covid-19) are becoming harder to obtain as governments tighten their grip on news sources.

The data being shared, particularly by the Chinese, are increasingly hard to believe. They don’t match the massive response the government is undertaking.

Likewise, outside of China, reported cases remain lower than we would expect given the powerful R0 (i.e., infectiousness) of the virus, as well as its long asymptomatic incubation period.

Are we being intentionally kept in the dark?

Quite possibly. Chris walks through the possible reasons why, and points to the stock markets as a prime example of disinformation.

They’re currently being used to send an “everything is fine” signal, while in reality, the global economy is taking multiple gut punches from the disruption of the many supply chains dependent on China’s (currently quarantined) workers.

Is this current period of puzzling silence from officials the calm before the storm?

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 15, 2020, 02:02:13 PM »
Explain to me how something that has occurred throughout history (locust plagues) can suddenly be blamed on climate change.
Because locusts thrive in a certain kind of weather which becomes more probable in a warming climate.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 14, 2020, 02:23:02 PM »
Sam, I agree that China has done something that no other nation on Earth, with the possible exception of NK, could have done. It is what the Chinese government is saying that I am wondering about. They won’t allow the CDC in. They keep WHO on a tight leash. They have a history of misinformation in their propaganda. In addition to the practical problems you stated on the statistics there is, IMHO, a question about the CCP’s credibility.

So two different names for the exact same unit.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 11, 2020, 02:58:36 AM »
The coronavirus threatens the Chinese Communist Party’s grip on power
Authoritarianism has made this outbreak worse, not better. The state’s strength in controlling information and suppressing dissent is a weakness in fighting disease

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 10, 2020, 02:37:09 PM »

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 08, 2020, 11:26:32 AM »
bluice: I don't trust the figures myself.

From the Generational Dynamics forum:
This is from a Chinese correspondent, so it is hearsay. Take it for what it is worth:
"Latest coronavirus tally:

> My wife and I are under voluntary 14-day quarantine in
> California... so to say the least, I have been following the topic
> very closely.

> The South China Morning Post ( in Hong Kong has been the
> source of most of my information.
> (

> You can usually get more up-to-date information about every 4-6
> hours there. Japanese newspapers also are interesting sources. An
> Israeli source mentioned that Wuhan is a center of China's
> biological warfare research.
> (

> Pandemic vs. Contained Epidemic?

> 1. It has *almost* confirmed that the virus is asymptomatically
> transmitted. Bad! Many articles allude to this, but the Tinajin
> and Singapore meeting cases seem to confirm it.

> 2. My brother-in-law is a public bus driver in Xi'an. He is
> supposed to go back to work on Monday. He, as well as all who
> provide transportation such as taxi drivers, has been instructed
> to see the national ID card of every boarding passenger. Anybody
> from Wuhan is not allowed on the bus.

> 3. China is providing all the medical care to patients "free of
> charge" according to my Chinese wife. If that happens in practice
> is yet to be seen.

> 4. In the housing communities throughout Xi'an, as well as in much
> of the more restricted areas of China, each house can send only
> one person to a market every other day. There are some that can go
> only once every three days. My wife's family is on an
> every-other-day basis.

> 5. The United States, through the Trump administration, first
> offered aid to China on January 6, while Beijing was still in full
> denial.

> 6. The way the CDC allowed a very sick person on my wife's plane
> to travel from Shanghai to SFO, totally on the basis of lies and
> deception, means there may already be thousands of cases here in
> the United States yet to appear.

> On that last point, one must remember that many of the Chinese
> that came over here initially came over illegally, then obtained a
> green card through deception. The last thing they will want to
> voluntarily admit is "I had been to Wuhan." Under the current set
> of fears the Trump administration has given the immigrant
> communities here in America, nobody knows what is coming down the
> pike that may cause deportation. Another thing is this: Even
> illegal aliens get better medical care in America than the Chinese
> may get back in China, especially if they got their green card a
> decade ago based on a persecution claim. Another common problem in
> America is that up until recently, many Chinese green card holders
> were doing illegal work, so everything was paid
> under-the-table. They could be filthy rich compared to most
> Americans, but because of using the underground economy, they
> qualified for food stamps, MediCal, housing subsidies, and all
> kinds of things. If they went to China, then came back sick, they
> would get medical treatment, but at the same time their income
> would be examined.

> Because of that, if that coughing woman that sat in the row behind
> my wife had the coronavirus, not only might both my wife and I
> might have been infected, but also every person that woman has
> been around during and after that flight. Multiply that by all the
> number of flights and potential people trying to flee China right
> now, and we may already have thousands of walking infected people
> at this point.

> The CDC is wrong to assume simple questionnaires of passengers
> that show no symptoms at the time of going past transit points
> will catch most cases. Furthermore, you and I know that it would
> be politically incorrect to call Chinese liars."

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: February 03, 2020, 10:14:12 PM »

this is exactly how america reacts to global warming

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 30, 2020, 06:55:17 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

The apocalyptic posts on this thread are pretty ridiculous. Get a grip.

This will either blow over or blow up.
If it blows over, I will lock the thread in a month or two and you can forget about it.
If it blows up, the posts on this thread will be the least of your worries.

Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: January 29, 2020, 06:37:51 PM »
You people will be glad to know that I have decided to cancel my trip.
I guess my last airplane flight was the one I took to see my cousin at her Colorado home.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 28, 2020, 06:11:02 PM »
You know, I can't see how China will be able to confine the virus to the lockdowned cities, in view of the migrant workers I mentioned above. They will just go on foot over or around the roadblocks. Maybe the provinces can be quarantined?

And as for news:
Coronavirus live updates: U.S. seeks to send expert team to China to combat coronavirus outbreak; Xi defends response
Gerry Shih,
Simon Denyer and
Siobhán O'Grady
Jan. 28, 2020 at 11:57 a.m. EST
● Several countries, including France, South Korea, Canada, Britain and the United States are putting together plans to evacuate their citizens from the outbreak epicenter in Wuhan.

● Germany has reported its first case, while Thailand has confirmed six more cases, bringing its total to 14 amid calls by many Asian populations to close the borders to Chinese visitors. Infections have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Canada and Sri Lanka. We’re mapping the spread here.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 26, 2020, 03:55:36 PM »
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:43:53 PM »
Now We Are Being Told That The Incubation Period For The Coronavirus “Can Be Around Two Weeks”
The more we learn about this mysterious new coronavirus, the more frightening this outbreak becomes.  As you will see below, we are now being told that the incubation period for this virus “can be around two weeks”.  That means that there could be countless numbers of people all over the globe that are carrying this virus around without even knowing it.  In fact, a woman that returned to Chicago from China on January 13th was not exhibiting any symptoms when she arrived.  So even if she had been “screened” at the airport, they would have let her through anyway.  But now it has been confirmed that she has the Chinese coronavirus, and she is in the hospital at this moment…
Yeah, this guy likes to cry "Wolf!"
But remember, in the end the wolf did come.

Consequences / Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:48:20 PM »
I linked to an updating news blog about the coronavirus on the China, China, China thread,

This subject probably needs a dedicated thread - especially if it proceeds as expected.
Thanks for the blog, TerryM.
I started a dedicated thread here:,2996.0.html

Consequences / COVID-19
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:46:46 PM »
Per TerryM's suggestion, here is a dedicated thread on the epidemic.
Let's hope this thread fizzles in a month or two.
Till then, here is the blog TerryM mentioned:

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:22:48 AM »
no worries. I just read that we are actually below rcp 2.6 so nothing can happen...
Where did you read this?

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:19:20 AM »
I think there is reason to be optimistic. During the past 10-15 years solar and wind became economically sound proposals and this shows up in the quickly changing expectations - noone expected such a strong change so quickly (the below chart is telling me that Co2emissions are likely topping out in the 2020s to start going down thereafter:
The danger is that we may hit tipping points and feedbacks in this decade.

Consequences / Re: Pathogens and their impacts
« on: January 25, 2020, 08:19:57 AM »
You know, one difference between 1918 and 2020 is that we have a much higher tower of cards for global civilization. In 1918 most people could live for a week or two when the Flu disrupted the machinery of society. In 2020, with just-in-time deliveries to stores and most people living in cities instead of farms, that is no longer true. Half a billion people got sick in 2018 (and as many as 100 million died) and if that proportion is laid up for a week or two a lot of people aren't going to eat for a week or two.

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: January 24, 2020, 10:27:13 PM »
Catastrophic Amazon tipping point less than 30 years away: study
The Amazon rainforest generates half its own rainfall, but deforestation threatens to disrupt this cycle, shifting large parts of this ancient forest to dry, savanna habitat. Passing such a “tipping point” would have disastrous knock-on effects for climate and weather patterns regionally and globally.
A recent study modelling the impact of proposed roads, hydropower and mining developments in the Amazon basin suggests that 21-43 percent of the Amazon’s original extent will be lost by 2050, putting it close to, or beyond, the tipping point for a biome shift in large parts of the region.
Although development is not currently proceeding at the rapid rate predicted under various ambitious government initiatives, experts say that, even with no new Amazon infrastructure, continued deforestation could drive the biome to the tipping point in the next 15–30 years.
A quick transition to zero deforestation is the only way to avert catastrophic change to the Amazon, say experts. But conservationists fear the political will is lacking as the Bolsonaro administration continues to slash protections. Backing indigenous land stewards could offer a solution.

My cousin ran a fishing charter on Lake Erie, so I know a little about this:
Voluntary Measures
Lake Erie turns toxic every summer. Officials aren’t cracking down on the source.
The algae are natural. This slow-motion crisis, however, is largely manmade — and neither the federal government nor states are effectively cracking down on the major contributor.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 24, 2020, 09:15:43 PM »
I'm just glad he didn't win the Darwin Award!

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 24, 2020, 04:16:20 PM »
Re: 60,000 years of ecological stability Australian Aboriginals and San:
As for the San, they are at best the exception that proves the rule. They developed in a continent which had a hundred thousand generations for megafauna to evolve to handle hunters with Paleolithic technology. And for 99% or so of their existence that was the kind of technology they had. Are they living in balance in the 21st Century?

I guessed Beaufort number?

Science / 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:46:09 PM »
OK, we blew 2019.
Let's see if this year we can reduce CO2 emissions.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:43:11 PM »
Vote for your favorite version of You've Got To Hide Your Love Away:

The Beatles


Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: January 23, 2020, 02:25:38 PM »
Maybe I should start a 2020 CO2 emissions thread?

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 23, 2020, 12:14:18 PM »
It’s probably what any sapient technopilic species would do to their biosphere on any planet.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 11