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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 21, 2020, 09:47:22 PM »
Get a bonus today:

Have I the Right - The Honeycombs

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 20, 2020, 06:17:02 PM »
Sadly true!

Trump's election was personal: It's white America's vicious backlash to black success

Link >>
blumenkraft, the election was so narrow that there are a plethora of "deciding issues". Clinton's email for example. Sexism. You know what my deciding issue was. Any one of a dozen would be enough to have swung the balance.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 20, 2020, 06:13:34 PM »

Sure Gonna  Miss Her - Gary Lewis and the Playboys

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:20:33 PM »
Platypus on the ‘brink of extinction’
One of Australia’s most-loved mammals, the platypus, is being pushed towards the “brink of extinction” by climate threats and habitat destruction, researchers say.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 20, 2020, 04:16:56 PM »
Australia's fires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade
Australia’s brushfires represent the first acute climate crisis of this new decade, and history will judge how humanity responds. The images of charred landscapes, decimated wildlife and people gasping for air shock the collective conscience of people around the world, but will they also shock our leaders into action? The answer to that question could determine the future of humanity and the planet.

Australia wildfires impart vital lesson to U.S.
A heart-wrenching image of a charred juvenile kangaroo trapped against barbed wire captured the devastation of Australia’s bushfires and the bitterness of climate inaction. Distraught onlookers around the world took note. We can only hope that U.S. leaders did too.

Scott Morrison’s plan to make Australia ‘resilient’ to climate change
“What is action on climate change? Building dams. What is action on climate change? Hazard reduction in these areas, it’s native vegetation management, it’s land-clearing laws.

“All of those things actually make you more resilient to longer, hotter, drier seasons. That’s what we’re going to face in the future.

The Search for Clean Air Amid Australia’s Smoky Fires
To measure the health risks of air pollution, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) uses an Air Quality Index (AQI) based on measurements of the concentration of particulate matter. An AQI of 67 to 99 is considered “fair,” 100 to 149 is “poor,” 150 to 200 is “very poor,” and 200+ is “hazardous.”
The AQI hit 4,650 on New Year’s Day in Canberra, the capital city of Australia.

Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: January 20, 2020, 03:49:08 PM »
An intensifying climate crisis threatens more than half of the world’s GDP, research says
Industries seen as “highly dependent” on nature generate 15% of global GDP ($13 trillion), while “moderately dependent” industries generate 37% ($31 trillion).

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 19, 2020, 11:04:38 PM »

Jennifer Juniper - Donovan

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 04:16:55 PM »
Based on your numbers I would say 5-8 cms sea level rise until 2030. Nothing to write home about. (don't misunderstand me, it is a serious long term problem and whole countries will be uinder water in 100-200 years, but not much to create interest in 10 years(
Well, a few cms is the difference between just below my lips and just above my nostrils.
Every inch heightens coastal erosion.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 18, 2020, 04:28:51 PM »
nanning, what do you mean by "lifeforms"? Vegetables you eat are lifeforms. Is this where you draw the line?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 18, 2020, 03:25:48 PM »

Buddy Holly -- It Doesn't Matter Anymore

Policy and solutions / Re: Australian politics and climate
« on: January 18, 2020, 12:00:05 AM »
When Will Australia’s Prime Minister Accept the Reality of the Climate Crisis?
For now, it seems, Australia will remain reliant on coal. On Wednesday, Morrison told reporters in Canberra, “Our resources industry is incredibly important to Australia.” The country remains the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal (the kind used to make electricity), after Indonesia. In 2018, the country sent two hundred million metric tons, worth twenty-six billion dollars, to China, Japan, and other countries in Southeast Asia.
Seems the word they are groping for is "never".

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:19:50 PM »
I wonder what enormity Julio committed.
Exacerbating AGW perhaps?

Paul Simon - Me and Julio Down by the Schoolyard

I’ve gone from concerned to alarmed in that time frame.

Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: January 17, 2020, 12:27:53 PM »
Paul Beckwith on effects of a BOE:

In my previous two videos I discussed how the reflectivity of the Arctic region reduced from 52% to 48% between 1979 and 2011, with global average warning 0.21 W/m2 (1/4 that of CO2). Now I explain the newest science from 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 with expected cloud invariance (or 2.24 W/m2 with clear skies, or 0.37 W/m2 if overcast). This equals 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortage chaos.

In this video I continue to explain the latest cutting edge science from late 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 if cloud behaviour stays similar to now. If clouds behave differently, one extreme case would have heat forcing of 2.24 W/m2 with completely clear skies; the other extreme case would be 0.37 W/m2 if the Arctic skies were all overcast (over 95% cloud coverage; similar thickness (optical depth) to now. The middle case (most likely?!) with 0.71 W/m2 is equivalent to 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortages.

In previous videos I explained how the latest cutting edge science from late 2019 expects that a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet the equivalence of 25 years of global warming or 1 Trillion tons of CO2. Putting this into context, as of 2016 an estimated 2.4 Trillion tons has been emitted since the preindustrial period; due to both fossil fuel combustion (1.54 Trillion tons) and land use changes (0.82 Trillion tons). It becomes glaringly obvious that we will blow through 1.5C and 2C Paris safety targets when this happens, not to mention methane and Greenland vulnerabilities.

He states a BOE is likely in five years, certain in ten.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 17, 2020, 09:41:10 AM »
I'd like to be a fly on the wall when these daters get home:

Rick Nelson - It's Late

Everly Brothers - Wake Up Little Susie

“YOU are very aware that if something goes wrong, it goes very wrong very quickly,” says Joanne Johnson, speaking from her tent near Thwaites glacier in one of the remotest parts of Antarctica."
What is "very quickly"? To a geologist that might be centuries.

Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 17, 2020, 12:32:57 AM »
I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration
A single cell configuration would mean no more jet streams? Then what? That would mean a complete disruption of our atmosphere.

Wouldn't we flip to a double cell configuration first?
I asked that question several months ago. If I understand right even number cell systems are unstable.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2020, 05:41:05 PM »
Right, nanning.
I am on the first of three floors, so no roof for me.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 16, 2020, 12:11:29 PM »
Climate change is killing one of nature's most famous survivalists
Tardigrades are a lesson in survival skills. These tiny creatures can withstand extreme conditions — from space radiation to being frozen for decades.

Their hardiness inspires hope for post-apocalyptic life and the future of space travel. But new research suggests all is not well for the microscopic invertebrates here on Earth. Space radiation and freezing might not kill them, but our warming planet might be too hot to handle.

Re: reply 2603
And sulfate geoengineering does not address ocean acidification and can also have side effects like acid rain.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: January 15, 2020, 06:09:00 PM »
My property is a unit in an apartment style condo. My investments are a few stocks my father left me. I have not had a job since 2010 and that was ~minimum wage. I live off a shrinking Trust.
I was born in 1958.
Don’t generalize.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 15, 2020, 06:03:00 PM »
Don’t forget, TB, that all that soil is still pretty saturated, so even if rainfall is less than last year the flooding might be even worse.

Tom, read. It is the projected sea level rise that suggests there will be no drama, not even in 500 years time:
The resulting ocean-forced SLR at year 2500 varies from about 10 cm to nearly 2 m

Worst case nearly 2 meters SLR due to West-Antarctica in 500 years time?? That is soothing. Burn some more oil.
Right, I should have read. I thought it would be a huge hairy report that I would not be able to understand. I don’t see how they could have admitted SLR is accelerating but thought it could be 10cm in 2500.
That literally does not even compute, since steady state rise for 500 years is well above that.

Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: January 14, 2020, 04:05:53 PM »

Did the question about a possible spike in warming from reduced aerosols with the reduction in fossil fuel burning come up?  If so, what was the answer?

Yes, I actually asked about Hansen et al.'s 2013 paper on aerosol masking, and the effect that immediately stopping production of sulfates via oil/coal/etc. Dr. Haywood said he respected Dr. Hansen, but believed that the warming effect would not be as great or as rapid as Hansen described. Additionally, Dr. Haywood said that sulfates would be replaced with other aerosols that occur naturally, the names of which escape me.

The reduction of anthropogenic aerosols won't happen that fast.
Yes, the world is getting off the coal, but we have another two decades of oil burning on the same levels as today.
My hypothesis: the reduction in aerosols (+ve effect) will be matched by a reduction in FF emissions (-ve effect) so that the net warming effect from GHG will remain on the same level.
GHGs remain in the atmosphere decades to millennia.
Aerosols remain in the atmosphere days to months.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 14, 2020, 02:14:26 PM »
Here's another one from the 40s, nanning:

Spike Jones - Der Fuehrer's Face

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 13, 2020, 11:36:16 PM »

Ivory Tower - Otis Williams and his Charms

Listening to iHeart 50s...

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 13, 2020, 10:07:39 PM »
2050 is what we project now.
Based on recent history, the actual date might be 2040 or even 2030.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: January 13, 2020, 06:32:13 PM »
El Cid:
I'm not so sure Western Civilization, especially the US, has that kind of culture.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 13, 2020, 05:31:47 PM »

Burning Bridges - Jack Scott

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 13, 2020, 12:39:51 AM »
- BUT I checked the ENSO thread and the forecast if for ENSO Neutral.

Unless I misunderstood that thread, the neutral outlook only goes through summer, not to the "El Nino" date of Xmas.
EDIT: So 2021 is much likely to be 1.5˚C.

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 12, 2020, 08:05:18 PM »
It’s not just Australia — Indonesia is facing its own climate disaster
As of Tuesday, the torrential downpours have left at least 67 people dead as rising waters deluged more than 180 neighborhoods and landslides buried at least a dozen Indonesians. Search missions for survivors are still ongoing, and officials say the death toll is expected to rise as more bodies are found.

Indonesia’s national meteorological agency said the rainfall on New Year’s Day was the heaviest downpour in a 24-hour period since Dutch colonists began record-keeping in the 1860s. Although floodwaters are starting to subside, the Indonesian Red Cross Society warned people to expect more severe rainfall in the coming days.

And wastewater, with pathogens, is getting in all that floodwater.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 12, 2020, 10:52:18 AM »
This is absolutely not intended to start a discussion here but please Tom think about what "strong" means ;).
Well, I was referring to the title.
Of course, one of us (forget who) has a signature saying it is the most adaptable who survive.
And now back to the music.

Green Fields - Brothers Four
Green fields are gone now, parched by the sun
Gone from the valleys where rivers used to run
Gone with the cold wind that swept into my heart
Gone with the lovers who let their dreams depart
Where are the green fields that we used to roam

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 12, 2020, 10:41:36 AM »
How do you access the Internet?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 08, 2020, 09:40:47 AM »
A couple more great songs, nanning.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 07, 2020, 10:28:38 AM »
Heard this in Man In The High Castle:

Sukiyaki (Ue o Muite Arukou) - Kyu Sakamoto

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 06, 2020, 06:05:29 PM »
What Will Another Decade of Climate Crisis Bring?
Every decade is consequential in its own way, but the twenty-twenties will be consequential in a more or less permanent way. Global CO2 emissions are now so high—in 2019, they hit a new record of forty-three billion metric tons—that ten more years of the same will be nothing short of cataclysmic. Unless emissions are reduced, and radically, a rise of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) will be pretty much unavoidable by 2030. This will make the demise of the world’s coral reefs, the inundation of most low-lying island nations, incessant heat waves and fires and misery for millions—perhaps billions—of people equally unavoidable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 05, 2020, 10:22:42 AM »
Freegrass, where do you live? Will you feel the same when that place burns? If you have access to the Internet you have a carbon footprint of your own bigger than those poor people.
When it’s your turn remember your posts here.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: January 03, 2020, 09:26:29 PM »
And we are working on the security.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: January 03, 2020, 02:16:24 PM »
Thanks for the thread. Volume is more important than area or extant.

Ken Feldman:
AbruptSLR's links almost always (since I've been following them) are about the likelihood that we have underestimated feedbacks and ECS. They are not that based on future emissions. Even if we follow a declining FF usage curve, we are still likely to see greater warming than we currently expect.

The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 31, 2019, 09:52:16 AM »
Well, he was elected to four terms and served little more than three.
But Truman was re-elected, so if FDR had survived (he wouldn't have been subject to term limits, IIRC) he might have made five elections.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: December 25, 2019, 11:17:46 AM »
Maybe brown dwarfs are the best places to look for extraterrestrial life:
Brown Dwarf Atmospheres as the Potentially Most Detectable and Abundant Sites for Life
We show that the total habitable volume in the atmospheres of cool brown dwarfs with effective temperatures of ̃250-350 K is possibly larger by 2 orders of magnitude than that of Earth-like planets. We also study the role of aerosols, nutrients, and photosynthesis in facilitating life in brown dwarf atmospheres. Our predictions might be testable through searches for spectral edges in the near-infrared and chemical disequilibrium in the atmospheres of nearby brown dwarfs that are either free-floating or within several au of stars. For the latter category, we find that the James Webb Space Telescope may be able to achieve a signal-to-noise ratio of ̃5 after a few hours of integration time per source for the detection of biogenic spectral features in ̃103 cool brown dwarfs.

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 24, 2019, 09:34:37 PM »
Instead of working two days we work five days and get two days worth of pay. The One Percent get the other three days worth.

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: December 22, 2019, 10:49:05 AM »
We will collapse 99% chance.
Or earn our name of Homo sapiens 1% chance.

Wow, wili.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: December 20, 2019, 01:48:44 PM »
Why capitalism must fail in the long term:
Duel, taboo and capitalism
Why capitalism is unsustainable For something very simple. Capitalism needs exponential growth.
You have to translate the article.

I live in an apartment style condo and it's not so bad (better than when I lived in a ranch house with a huge lawn, both of which I had to maintain).
Might need a bigger one for couples with kids, but I'm sure it can be worked out.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 19, 2019, 08:21:32 PM »
The sixth power, depending on how you calculate it, is either a squared cube or a cubed square.
And what on earth is "a cube squared" and what has it to do with anything?

The height a tidal bulge rises goes up as an inverse cube of the distance to the tide raising body. So, if you had the Moon at half its present distance 4 billion years ago, the tidal bulge it would lift would be 2X2X2 times higher, or eight times as high.
The rate at which a tidal effect slows the rotation of the planet scales as the square of the height of the tidal bulge. So 4 billion years ago the slowdown rate may have been 8X8 or 64 times its present value.
Four and a half eons ago the Moon would have been something like one tenth its present day distance, so it was slowing the Earth's rotation something like a million times faster.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: December 17, 2019, 12:32:34 PM »
Wichita Lineman is another one I like, nanning.

Here are a couple rousing songs, both named "Waterloo".

Stonewall Jackson's song

ABBA's song

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: December 16, 2019, 07:34:05 PM »

Don't Bring Me Down - Electric Light Orchestra

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