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Messages - KiwiGriff

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 12, 2019, 12:23:02 PM »
When the legacy industry starts building electric cars Tesla is doomed.
Tesla do not have any advantage. Tesla has no technology that legacy industry can not just simply buy of the shelf.

The Audi etron was going to have competitive  range .
the Porsche Taycan was going to have competitive range .
Anyone willing to bet what the ID3 will have?

2
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 10, 2019, 03:37:51 AM »
I would not say any of our active volcanoes are  ever 100% safe.
Any  of them could have an eruption at any time . Even our biggest city is built on a massive volcanic field that has historically had an eruption every 500 years. last eruption in Auckland,  rangitoto, was 600 years ago .
The warning level on White island was at three but there is plenty of occasions when the volcanoes are at elevated risk and nothing happens. It is dangerous to walk around on an active volcano that is part of the attraction. Shite happens I am sorry that some died but ffs don't make it impossible to experience earths wonders because the natural world also comes complete with some risk.

I have a pet rock that jumped onto my boat 500 Nautical miles out in the pacific  :D
Seeing a raft of pumice that goes on for days is an awesome sight
I sailed though the one from the Home Reef eruption  in 2006.

Edit alert level was at two.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:11:22 PM »
Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May - The factory to have its own production lines by the end of the year.


Negative one billion percent chance.

How can anyone possibly believe a muddy field is going to be a factory in 2 months? Just absurd.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 06, 2019, 08:45:01 PM »
Shared Humanity
I have kept out of this for a while because it is an off topic debate on a thread for questions and answers not long debates .
My view?
The new thread just created by Tom is the right place for this discussion.
Refute Denier arguments .
Because thinking unconstrained emissions  and the resulting climate change  is not going to have an extremely negative impact on humanity is denial according to the gold standard of the debatable conservative IPCC.

GDP?. How do you put a price on losing not only your home but your community and your entire country? What is a species worth? Do we have a right to consume now and expect future generations to pick up the tab?
 

5
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
Quote
  The CO2 growth rate lags ENSO.  the peaks in CO2 growth rate lag Niño 3.4 by ~4-6 months.
As does the  Atmospheric Response to ENSO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1391
The Nature and Causes for the Delayed Atmospheric Response to El Niño

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:54:42 PM »
You can not separate humanity from the worlds ecology. If we kill Gaia we kill ourselves.

AGW is a wicked problem it has no known resolution as yet.
Quote
A wicked problem is a social or cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems.


We are running up against a resolution to the Fermi paradox.
 Maybe we find a solution or maybe smart apes are not the ultimate evolutionary branch that we arrogantly claim.
    That should not stop us from trying.

The Overton window is shifting towards action. We have a very long way to go before what we need to do will become possible.
There is a very good chance of 3 C and starting a cascade of feedback's that push us into hot house earth.  I do not believe human civilization will survive the result.

Finally .Thank fuck I have not bred. It is not my children that will live the horrors to come.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 03, 2019, 08:02:31 PM »
Quote
Has the life of the humans digging up important electric car resources improved? Do you empathize with them?

The worlds major suppler of lithium is Australia.
Quote
Oct 17, 2019 - A mid-career Miner with 5-9 years of experience earns an average total compensation of AU$122,607
I don't think $122.607 a year is in need of much improvement.

Cobalt is usually the target when they talk of child labor and horrific conditions.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo supply's around 50% of the worlds cobalt
Only about 15% of the cobalt mined in the Congo comes from the Artisanal mining  responsible for the human rights abuses.
Tesla the worlds biggest manufacture of electric cars is making an effort to insure its cobalt is  ethically sourced.
Tesla have also reduced the amount of cobalt used in their battery's and are working to do away with it entirely .

The oil industry uses much of the worlds cobalt in the process to refine petrol.
We never hear about their ethics.

You have been mislead by the campaign to discredit electric cars by the oil industry.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:13:56 AM »
Certainly puts a dent in the pauseites case for a slow down.

I don't see the dip as the effect of an  influence like a cyclic weather pattern. To my ignorant eyes it looks like a permanent state change had a large but limited effect that once saturated reverted to the  steadily increasing prior trend.
if that makes sense  :-\


9
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 10:21:58 PM »
I suppose you can differentiate between hard science threads and social ones .

A thread on 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels is not an appropriate place for half a dozen members to have an involved discussion on ocean heat content.
 Not only does it clog the thread detracting from its purpose it also means any significant content on the off topic topic is lost to prosperity.

A few asides would be acceptable, to most. on any thread. When you have a page or more of chatter on a hard science  thread not so.

Propose or Answer a tangential question or add some snark or humor, OK. if it gets more involved suggest shifting to a more appropriate thread.

I am not trying to make rules just attempting to generate discussion on something  I see as important for the health of this forum. 
 

10
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 02, 2019, 09:14:29 PM »
Grandmother dumps burnt remains of home at Parliament House in climate change protest

Quote
A woman has brought the charred remains of her bushfire-ravaged home to Parliament House in Canberra, accusing both major political parties of failing to act on climate change.
...snip....
Ms Plesman, who is now living in a Grafton hotel, said she was furious when Mr Morrison offered prayers for victims.

"I lost my house, I lost my way of life — my whole community has — and while that was happening, the PM said that he didn't want us to talk about climate change, that this wasn't the time," she said.

"We weren't allowed to mention climate change and then [Mr Morrison] said that he was praying for us.

"I got really upset and really angry because I just felt that we needed a hell of a lot more than that.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-02/bushfire-victim-nsw-nymboida-climate-change-protest/11757082


11
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 08:42:10 PM »
A few  persons die in a stabbing on London bridge and it gets headlines for days 6,000 miles away
Hundreds die somewhere poor  and it might make a few lines buried among the adds if you are lucky.
The weather catastrophe porn is important on sites like this or we simply do not get informed about them.

The economic costs of climate change  ignores the pain and suffering we are inflicting on the poor. A few homes  in a rich place flooding is given many times more weight than a thousand being destroyed in Bangladesh. 

12
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 05:18:34 PM »
A denier generates a "someone wrong on the internet" response .
https://xkcd.com/386/

13
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 04:20:43 PM »
Plenty of threads. '
Arctic Sea Ice : Forum »AGW in general »Science »Ocean temperatures
That gentleman  has generated quite a few off topic debates lately.
 :o
My tone may have been off.
Did not mean to lecture about off topic thought it was worth noting. .

14
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 02, 2019, 02:36:47 AM »
Just a note on thread discipline.
I have been involved recently in a few discussions on here were the thread has been hijacked into totally unrelated topics. For example there is quite an involved discussion on ocean heat content on the Mauna Loa CO2 levels thread at the moment. 
I don't think that is helpful to anyone looking for information on specific topics on this forum or respectful to the dedicated members  who update such threads for the benefit of us all.

I suggest that "We" collectively should  make more effort to shift  discussions to the appropriate threads when a debate gets too far off topic .
 

15
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 01, 2019, 02:26:29 AM »
I don't know why Hefaistos keeps posting sea surface temperature of the southern ocean for ocean heat content .
They are not the same thing.
The southern ocean is one of the most remote places on earth and only directly effects a few thousand hardy souls that live in the southern most tip of south america.
Here in NZ we get weather systems  from the southern ocean but they travel over a few thousand  kilometers of the Pacific first .




The oceans are heated by the atmosphere.
Eli rabbit explains how much better than I can here.
 http://rabett.blogspot.com/2018/11/eli-explains-it-all-how-back-radiation.html




16
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 30, 2019, 03:36:50 AM »
Inside Climate News:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26112019/unep-emissions-gap-report-paris-climate-greenhouse-gas-peak-2030
Quote
To be on track for 2°C of warming, the report said, emissions in 2030 would need to be 25 percent lower than today.

To limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions would need to be slashed by 55 percent. Last year, global carbon dioxide emissions rose 1.7 percent.

“Every year that action is delayed, emissions reductions need to be steeper,” said Joeri Rogelj, climate change lecturer at Imperial College London and an author of the report. This is the 10th year in a row that the UN has released an emissions gap report. “It is really the accumulation of bad news every year.”

Confirmation that rising emissions are putting existing global goals further out of reach came on the eve of the COP 25 climate summit that begins in Madrid on Monday.

The meeting will be the first big climate gathering since President Donald Trump began the process of withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement. Brazil’s president has also questioned the deal’s relevance.

New data from the World Meteorological Organization published on Monday showed that global average concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to 407.8 parts per million in 2018, up from 405.5 parts per million in 2017.

The increase is the result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels. Another UN report last week showed that if the world’s top fossil fuel-producing nations follow through on their current plans, they will produce about 50 percent more oil, gas and coal by 2030 than would be compatible with the international goal of keeping global warming under 2°C, and two times more than would be allowable to stay under 1.5°C.

Greenhouse gas emissions have risen 1.5 percent each year on average over the past decade, despite a slight levelling off during 2014-16.

“There is no sign of a slowdown, let alone a decline, in greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere despite all the commitments under the Paris agreement,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

“It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3 to 5 million years ago,” he added. “Back then, the temperature was 2 to 3°C warmer, and sea level was 10 to 20 meters higher than now.”

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 03:10:35 AM »
Edited to reduce the snark.
 
Quote
Tu quoque (/tjuːˈkwoʊkwi, tuːˈkwoʊkweɪ/; Latin for "you also"), or the appeal to hypocrisy, is a fallacy that intends to discredit the opponent's argument by asserting the opponent's failure to act consistently in accordance with its conclusion(s).

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 02:23:24 AM »
Quote
Irrelevant.  Even the best can spin the data to support their cause.  I know Dana.  We have sparred often in the past.  He used to be more objective, but John appears to have swayed him towards a more activist approach.  In the end, it is the science that counts, not the scientists
This is what is known as a straw man in that you did not address my comment.
I did not name Dana I named a few well respected individuals including the proprietor of this site.
In reply You mounted an Ad hominem attack on someone I did not even mention .
Quote
Ad hominem (Latin for "to the person"), short for argumentum ad hominem, typically refers to a fallacious argumentative strategy whereby genuine discussion of the topic at hand is avoided by instead attacking the character, motive, or other attribute of the person making the argument, or persons associated with the ...

Sk Sc is based on science and insists that any claims are linked to and supported by peer reviewed literature. 


False Equivalence
Quote
Description: An argument or claim in which two completely opposing arguments appear to be logically equivalent when in fact they are not. The confusion is often due to one shared characteristic between two or more items of comparison in the argument that is way off in the order of magnitude, oversimplified, or just that important additional factors have been ignored.
Joe Nova post any old nonsense with no such restrictions on content . Witness the series of posts by her husband David Evens pushing a fringe theory called at last iteration "force x the notch and the delay theory of global warming. This in a site that also frequently claims that warming is a  result of a conspiracy to doctor records by a cabal of corrupt scientists .

Your use of "activist" was also Poisoning the Well by  using Loaded language .
Poisoning the Well
Quote
(also known as: discrediting, smear tactics)
Description: To commit a preemptive ad hominem attack against an opponent.  That is, to prime the audience with adverse information about the opponent from the start, in an attempt to make your claim more acceptable or discount the credibility of your opponent’s claim
Quote
Loaded language or prejudicial language is language intended to produce an emotional response in the mind of the audience, in order to directly affect their views on a topic.
Many of us on here could also be included under the title activist it comes from being informed about the issue and an understanding of the risks we face. 

The frequent easy discerned logic errors of those who oppose any actions to address the issue is what convinced me of global warming .



19
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 29, 2019, 08:46:48 PM »
Klondike Kat
If you think skeptical science is as unreliable as Joe Nova you  really are a denier .
Many respected climate scientists have contributed to SK SC. Some you may have heard of like Benjamin D. Santer, Carl Mears, Jason Box, Kevin Trenberth, Zeke Hausfather and some random guy who uses the name Neven .
Joe Nova has fringe cranks and posts that contradict both each other and accepted science .

As to Toms question.
Without being able to access the papers involved I think the reduction in the number of recorded high days is due to the culling of multiple records at the same site. The method BOM use to get a regional temperature relies on constructing a single record for a location like a town or city rather than the one used by BEST that uses every record or part of they can find. That the BOM data set comes to the same result as BEST shows that both methods are reliable.

20
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 29, 2019, 10:25:18 AM »
Quote
At the same time, the major stories out now breathlessly talk about how CO2 levels now exceed any time in human history going back 3-5 million years. They utterly miss the fact that under current or even under vastly reduced growth rates, the “current” atmospheric CO2 levels will race above that short term blip in CO2 level 3 million years ago and rise to levels not seen in over 25 million years.
Think of a once in three million year weather event.
Then consider that as a new normal.

21
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 29, 2019, 08:06:35 AM »

The Mutton Birds - Nature.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 28, 2019, 11:05:41 PM »
All these common myths are so often debunked.
PRATT.
Point Refuted a Thousand Times.

Tom 2/3 of the globe is water.
Overwhelmingly the greatest adjustment to the raw data is found in the ocean temperatures .
The early measurements for temperatures over the ocean have been adjusted up reducing global warming .
Before the II world war  most measurements were taken from a canvas bucket lowered over the side of the boat. Evaporation will cause the contents of a wet canvas bucket to cool. Since about 1940 sea water temperatures are taken direct from the raw water intake on boats giving a more accurate reading that is on average warmer. The major adjustment to the global temperature data of about 0.2C upwards before 1940 is for this very simple reason  that most 12 year old's can grasp.

If the scientists were corrupt as the wacko's propose why would they actually reduce warming with their adjustments?

I highly recommend referencing skeptical  science if you want to refute any nonsense.
They have  all the pratt's covered in depth with graphics and video explanations.
You will not convince the rusted on whacko's.
You can however influence those bystanders who are not so blinded by ideology and give them a good resource to continue to expand their understanding . 

You will have to excuse my upmost contempt for those in denial.
I spent a decade debating with the denial nutbars on line. In that time I ended up totally reevaluating my political standpoint . I was once firmly in the free market neoliberal camp  I would now be considered  left wing.
To many of the right's talking points come from the same sources as climate change denial to be trusted.
They are not your friends. 

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 28, 2019, 03:26:26 PM »
The problem with such charges is batteries and solar are getting cheaper.
Soon it will be economic to simply switch of your grid connection and rely  only on solar and batteries in many places .
leaving a smaller number paying the fixed cost of maintaining the grid making it more economic to switch off.

 In NZ the grid is owned by a  state-owned enterprise separate from the company's you buy the electricity off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpower_New_Zealand.
We already have a component of an electricity bill that represents a line charge for the transmission infrastructure . In my case it was  cheaper  to  go off grid than pay for the 350 meters of cabling from my house  to the entrance of the property and the on going line charge.

24
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 07:54:36 AM »
You are a denier my friend.
You have posted some outright crap like wind speed in the trades as  a proxy for the southern ocean wind speed and SST's as a measurement of  ocean heat content .
If you think with such a noisy data series you can make a case for negative acceleration based on that short a time frame you are  deluded . No one with a clue would propose  a claim that is so far from statistical significance as to be  unsupportable .
You can put in as many smiley faces as you like being a denier  still makes you an extremely low form of life.

25
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 07:12:04 AM »
Hefaistos Halitosis
To paraphrase David Lange.
I can smell the CO2 on your breath.

26
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: November 28, 2019, 06:52:50 AM »



https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/
Quote
What might be the clearest illustration comes from computing annual average CO2 concentration and using it to estimate the year-on-year change, which is the velocity of CO2 concentration. Acceleration will show as a trend in the velocity. Here are the estimates, together with a trend line which illustrates the overall rise in velocity (i.e. acceleration of CO2):




27
Quote
Yes, we need to get off of fossil fuels as soon as possible.  However [...] we're making great progress in doing so

We are not making progress at all.
Again on this thread .
 Until this clearly shows a change in the rate of CO2 addition no amount of dodgy carbon accounting or talk of  impossible RCP's is going to impact on the reality of our predicament.
The keeling curve is still smegging  accelerating.



PS. Keep it up ASLR I find your contribution  both convincing and informative.  I don't like coming on your thread and distracting you from your excellent series of posts. However....


28
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 28, 2019, 12:40:17 AM »
One  up the Luddites . ;)
Quote
Back in June, New York’s legislature – the State Assembly & State Senate – passed a “Right-to-Charge” bill, which would prohibit condominiums, home-owners associations (HOAs) and the like from unreasonably restricting the installation of electric vehicle charging stations. The bill, however, sat there until yesterday, when it was finally delivered to the Governor for his signature. Also yesterday,
'''snip
If we’re lucky Governor Cuomo is eager to sign it, and it won’t get “pocket vetoed” by not getting signed this month. The bill doesn’t just ban condos from restricting electric vehicle charging in the future, but also voids any existing restrictive condo bylaws or covenants.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/27/new-york-legislature-delivers-right-to-charge-law-to-gov-cuomo-thanks-elon/

29
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: November 27, 2019, 08:44:23 PM »
Nasty feeling liking that comment Vox.

AAAS THE REALITY, RISKS, AND RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
https://whatweknow.aaas.org/get-the-facts/
 
Quote
2.  We are at risk of pushing our climate system toward abrupt, unpredictable, and potentially irreversible changes with highly damaging impacts. Earth’s climate is on a path to warm beyond the range of what has been experienced over the past millions of years.[ii] The range of uncertainty for the warming along the current emissions path is wide enough to encompass massively disruptive consequences to societies and ecosystems: as global temperatures rise, there is a real risk, however small, that one or more critical parts of the Earth’s climate system will experience abrupt, unpredictable and potentially irreversible changes. Disturbingly, scientists do not know how much warming is required to trigger such changes to the climate system.

30
Classic denial cherry picking
Only look at what confirms your prejudice and ignore every thing else.
2019 is warm and it is an ENSO neutral year.
Some evidence points towards increasing frequency of extreme El Niño

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming
Wenju Cai, Simon Borlace, Matthieu Lengaigne, Peter van Rensch, Mat Collins, Gabriel Vecchi, Axel Timmermann, Agus Santoso, Michael J. McPhaden, Lixin Wu, Matthew H. England, Guojian Wang, Eric Guilyardi & Fei-Fei Jin
Nature Climate Change volume 4, pages111–116(2014)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2100
Abstract
Quote
El Niño events are a prominent feature of climate variability with global climatic impacts. The 1997/98 episode, often referred to as ‘the climate event of the twentieth century’1,2, and the 1982/83 extreme El Niño3, featured a pronounced eastward extension of the west Pacific warm pool and development of atmospheric convection, and hence a huge rainfall increase, in the usually cold and dry equatorial eastern Pacific. Such a massive reorganization of atmospheric convection, which we define as an extreme El Niño, severely disrupted global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems4,5, agriculture6, tropical cyclones, drought, bushfires, floods and other extreme weather events worldwide3,7,8,9. Potential future changes in such extreme El Niño occurrences could have profound socio-economic consequences. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a perturbed physics ensemble12. The increased frequency arises from a projected surface warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs faster than in the surrounding ocean waters13,14, facilitating more occurrences of atmospheric convection in the eastern equatorial region.

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño
Bin Wang, Xiao Luo, Young-Min Yang, Weiyi Sun, Mark A. Cane, Wenju Cai, Sang-Wook Yeh, and  View ORCID ProfileJian Liu
PNAS November 5, 2019
https://www.pnas.org/content/116/45/22512
Abstract
Quote
El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries
Mandy B. Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, David J. Karoly, Helen V. McGregor, Nerilie J. Abram & Dietmar Dommenget
Nature Geoscience volume  12
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0353-3
Abstract
Quote
Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Niño events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Niño events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Niño events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Niño activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Niño events.




31
Open mind has a new post
Climate Models
How well have climate models forecast global temperature?

Conclusion
Quote
Recent values are genuine predictions, in the sense that the observed values of global temperature weren’t known when the models were run (it can take a long time to run these models, even on a supercomputer).

Clearly actual temperature has followed the model results closely, staying within the 1-sigma range most of the time. The latest value (2019 year-to-date) is right in the bull’s eye.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/11/25/climate-models/

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:10:13 PM »
Quote
Real communication is when I talk to you in real life with all non-verbal communication
This is how Aspie's get excluded .
We don't grok non verbal communication.  We also don't do monkey chatter.

Part of Greta's success is because she does not play the social game and kowtow to your social norms by self censoring the message.

Quote
“What would happen if the autism gene was eliminated from the gene pool?

You would have a bunch of people standing around in a cave, chatting and socializing and not getting anything done.”
― Temple Grandin,

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 19, 2019, 06:55:31 PM »
There +1.
Happy now ?
 ;D

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 18, 2019, 03:33:00 AM »
This is why Terry is on my ignore list .
He is full of it and adds nothing of any value .

Terry has in the past claimed he lives in an apartment specifically he said he would stop anyone installing a charger in his basement garage due to fire risk.

How much do solar panels cost for the average house in California in 2019?
Quote
As of November 2019, the average cost of solar panels per watt in California is $3.45/watt. A typical 6000 watt (6 kW) solar system is $20,673 before the federal solar credit and $14,471 after claiming the federal solar tax credit.
More panels installed the less the cost per W.
 https://www.solarreviews.com/solar-panels/solar-panel-cost/cost-of-solar-panels-in-california

Average mileage driven in the USA.
Quote
According to United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Americans now drive an average of 13,476 miles per year. Nov 1, 2018

 Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus - 253 Wh/mile(157 Wh/km) EPA

13476/ 365 = 37 miles per day. Miles driven times 253 Wh = 9.4 kWh

At only 3 hours direct sunlight daily  a 4 KW array would easily provide for the average users transport needs.

Full of shite....


35
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 18, 2019, 02:34:20 AM »
Quote
That truth said, they are already losing ground,

If this is losing ground I would  hate to see winning ......


Your idea of truth is only your delusions showing.




36
The Seneca effect
Quote
The Seneca effect, or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse, is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi that addresses a class of problems in nature in which decline is faster than growth. This model is closely related to the work The Limits to Growth issued by the Club of Rome in the Seventies[1] and its main application is to describe various kind of economics given the condition of a shortage of fossil fuels, e.g. in relation to the Hubbert curve. However, unlike the Hubbert curve, the Seneca cliff shows asymmetry, which can take into account the delay of effects, such as pollution[2].

The term is named after the Roman philosopher and writer Seneca, who wrote Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid (Lucius Anneus Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, 91–63).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seneca_effect

Ugo Bardi's blog.
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 17, 2019, 07:16:51 PM »
It makes me feel my contribution is valued so yes it is nice.
120/0 One day I might even give as I receive.
As I have said  before on this thread.
The ratio of Aspies to Normies on this forum will be  larger than in the population at large.
Because as Greta says, superpowers ... :D 8)

“Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.” – Frank Zappa

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 17, 2019, 06:10:56 PM »
For me, as an Aspie the internet negates the barriers that come with who I am.
 

39


Quote
The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate. With no continental barriers, it distributes climate signals among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans through its fast-flowing, energetic, and deep-reaching dominant current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The unusual dynamics of this current, in conjunction with energetic atmospheric and ice conditions, make the Southern Ocean a key region for connecting the surface ocean with the world ocean’s deep seas. Recent examinations of global ocean temperature show that the Southern Ocean plays a major role in global ocean heat uptake and storage. Since 2006, an estimated 60%–90% of global ocean heat content change associated with global warming is based in the Southern Ocean. But the warming of its water masses is inhomogeneous. While the upper 1,000 m of the Southern Ocean within and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are warming rapidly, at a rate of 0.1°–0.2°C per decade, the surface sub­polar seas south of this region are not warming or are slightly cooling. However, subpolar abyssal waters are warming at a substantial rate of ~0.05°C per decade due to the formation of bottom waters on the Antarctic continental shelves. Although the processes at play in this warming and their regional distribution are beginning to become clear, the specific mechanisms associated with wind change, eddy activity, and ocean-ice interaction remain areas of active research, and substantial challenges persist to representing them accurately in climate models.

https://tos.org/oceanography/article/southern-ocean-warming



DK.....


 

40
Quote
In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 (40–60% interquartile range), reaching net zero around 2050
And ........our present reality.

41
Quote
when there is no other source of greenhouse gas emissions that can make up for the missing coal emissions.
Such certainty gives you away. 30 years of the IPCC and we have not changed the shape of the keeling curve appreciably.
Coal has mostly been swapped for new gas assets with a fifty year life.
I can think of a few potential sources of greenhouse gas emissions including permafrost melt, burning the Amazon and furtive methane from fracking and faulty infrastructure  that could push us over RCP 8.5
RCP 8.5 is very unlikely but not "impossible" at this point.

On the other hand the lower RCP's always have been impossible being based on technology we do not actually have and the application of which we could not achieve in any reasonable expectation of the  economic and political future. 

Quote
In fact, studies indicate that if we can keep the temperature rise to 1.5 C the WAIS won't collapse.
@1.2 C now  and  0.2C  a decade that's less than two decades away without allowing for warming masked by human induced aerosols.
1.5C is already blown 2C is highly unlikely and 3C probable on our present path.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 14, 2019, 08:20:58 PM »
Quote
Maybe I'm wrong and I'm a moron. But I'm pretty sure you are wrong, and you are the moron.
There is not some sorta magic European wide energy market.

GSY nailed the first part. .....  ;D  :o

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 14, 2019, 12:49:01 PM »
Save your money. The report is as worthless as used toilet paper.
 IEA is totally  incompetent at projecting future energy use and renewable generation.

The E Tron one of the worlds less efficient electric SUV's has an EPA rating of  283 Wh/km or 74 MPGe
A BMW X3 SUV does 25  MPG EPA.
I doubt you will even be able to buy a new mainstream  ICE car by 2040 in the developed world.
Economics will kill ICE  before governments do.
EV's are projected to become directly cost competitive long before 2030.

44
Polar vortex and climate change from a reputable source based on actual published peer reviewed science. 
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-is-arctic-warming-linked-to-polar-vortext-other-extreme-weather

WUWT is a source for propaganda  from paid Fossil Fuel industry shrills, illogical conspiracy theory's and the gibbering of fringe nutbars.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 12, 2019, 04:49:22 AM »
Global warming paused ....if you ignore ocean heat content.
Sea ice decline paused.... if you ignore volume.
 :D

46
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279014699_Evolution_of_the_Southern_Annular_Mode_during_the_past_millennium

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary pattern of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere(1,2), influencing latitudinal rainfall distribution and temperatures from the subtropics to Antarctica. The positive summer trend in the SAM over recent decades is widely attributed to stratospheric ozone depletion(2); however, the brevity of observational records from Antarctica(1)-one of the core zones that defines SAM variability-limits our understanding of long-term SAM behaviour. Here we reconstruct annual mean changes in the SAM since AD 1000 using, for the first time, proxy records that encompass the full mid-latitude to polar domain across the Drake Passage sector. We find that the SAM has undergone a progressive shift towards its positive phase since the fifteenth century, causing cooling of the main Antarctic continent at the same time that the Antarctic Peninsula has warmed. The positive trend in the SAM since similar to AD 1940 is reproduced by multimodel climate simulations forced with rising greenhouse gas levels and later ozone depletion, and the long-term average SAM index is now at its highest level for at least the past 1,000 years. Reconstructed SAM trends before the twentieth century are more prominent than those in radiative-forcing climate experiments and may be associated with a teleconnected response to tropical Pacific climate. Our findings imply that predictions of further greenhouse-driven increases in the SAM over the coming century(3) also need to account for the possibility of opposing effects from tropical Pacific climate changes.



https://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6440/548
Abstract
In this study, global satellite data were analyzed to determine trends in oceanic wind speed and significant wave height over the 33-year period from 1985 to 2018. The analysis uses an extensive database obtained from 31 satellite missions comprising three types of instruments—altimeters, radiometers, and scatterometers. The analysis shows small increases in mean wind speed and significant wave height over this period, with larger increases in extreme conditions (90th percentiles). The largest increases occur in the Southern Ocean. Confidence in the results is strengthened because the wind speed trends are confirmed by all three satellite systems. An extensive set of sensitivity analyses confirms that both the mean and 90th percentile trends are robust, with only small impacts caused by satellite calibration and sampling patterns.

47
So am I.
Griff est. 1963.
Unfortunately we are  still in a minority within our generation.
I can see why "OK boomer" because I have been arguing with boomer political nutbars who deny reality for the last decade or so.

NZ only stopped the clear felling of native forest in the 80's.  Unfortunately introduced mammals, weeds and pathogens along with climate change is going to eventually take what is left.

Don't it always seem to go. That you don't know what you've got. Till it's gone.

48
Stage 1: Deny the Problem Exists.

Stage 2: Deny We're the Cause.

Stage 3: Deny It's a Problem.

Stage 4: Deny We can Solve It.

Stage 5: It's too Late.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/16/climate-change-contrarians-5-stages-denial

49
New Zealand passes law aimed at combating climate change.

Ok boomer .  :D



50
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 07, 2019, 08:05:08 PM »

This is what I was going to post on the Tesla thread so is not congruent unless you read both.
....
 Neil for a little light distraction I have been looking at making a lipo3 battery pack for a boat house battery.
Its complicated coming from someone who has been living with and learning about lead acid based house storage systems for over a decade. I basically will need to rebuild my entire house electrical system from scratch adding  a lot more than simply a battery. Even making the battery itself will require a lot more tech than just a few cells and connectors. On this simple exercise I am just getting to "it s beginning to make sense" but I know I have a long way to go yet to successfully design what I want . This excise adds to my understanding of what Tesla is doing.

One graph explains  GSY's position .


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