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Messages - KiwiGriff

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1
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 12, 2020, 03:53:28 PM »
 :(
For me and many others on this forum getting Covid would be like getting a seat in a game of Russian roulette. Seeing someone using illogical arguments against  actions to limit this risk is distressing when it is you staring down a barrel . Because it is Neven I have  stayed away from the thread so I don't feel the need to react as I normally would reading such gibbering.

We are all human and have our foibles.

Pertinent
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/08/how-to-spot-alternative-scientists/

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 10, 2020, 08:55:46 AM »
Coronavirus: New Zealand marks 100 days without community spread
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53715084


3
Science / Re: The Father Of Global Warming?
« on: August 10, 2020, 05:07:59 AM »
Father Mother.
 Eunice Foote at "the 1856 AAAS annual meeting in Albany, New York."
Quote
"Prof. Henry then read a paper by Mrs. Eunice Foote, prefacing it with a few words, to the effect that science was of no country and of no sex. The sphere of woman embraces not only the beautiful and the useful, but the true. Mrs. Foote had determined, first, that the action of the rays increases with the density of the air. She has taken two glass cylinders of the same size, containing thermometers. Into one the air was condensed, and from the other air was exhausted. When they were of the same temperature the cylinders were placed side by side in the sun, and the thermometers in the condensed air rose more than twenty degrees higher than those in the rarified air. This effect of rarefaction must contribute to produce the feebleness of heating power in the sun's rays on the summits of lofty mountains. Secondly, the effect of the sun's rays is greater in moist than in dry air. In one cylinder the air was saturated with moisture, in the other dried with chloride of lime; both were placed in the sun, and a difference of about twelve degrees was observed. This high temperature of sunshine in moist air is frequently noticed; for instance, in the intervals between summer showers. The isothermal lines on the earth's surface are doubtless affected by the moisture of the air giving power to the sun, as well as by the temperature of the ocean yielding the moisture. Thirdly, a high effect of the sun's rays is produced in carbonic acid gas. One receiver being filled with carbonic acid, the other with common air, the temperature of the gas in the sun was raised twenty degrees above that of the air. The receiver containing the gas became very sensibly hotter than the other, and was much longer in cooling. An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a much higher temperature; and if there once was, as some suppose, a larger proportion of that gas in the air, an increased temperature must have accompanied it, both from the nature of the gas and the increased density of the atmosphere..."
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2011/70092sorenson/ndx_[/s]
Thanks for finding  this gem go to Eli Rabett.
 http://rabett.blogspot.com/2019/08/the-foote-effect.html
Barry at SK SC.
https://skepticalscience.com/climate-curve-fitting-fools-gold.html#61013

"If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants."
Letter from Sir Isaac Newton to Robert Hooke

4
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: August 09, 2020, 09:18:00 AM »
Quote
Actually, the Gulf stream is stable and if anything shows a slight increase in strength during the last 10 years, according to the RAPID array, see attached figure. (The RAPID array data are not used in the paper for some reason.) See second attached image.

It would help if you actually posted some sort of statistical analyse of the data rather than just your statement and a raw data graph with no trend line or significances range .
You do remember the great "pause" in global warming popular with a subset of maths deficient nutbars I am sure . Such a pause  never existed it was merely looking at the noise inherent in  the data
Analyse would also allow you to prove that using only ten years of data is significant.

A few moments on google and....
Ah I see why you used only ten years of the data .
Using the other six years data gives a decline of about 15 % .
Quote
The strength of the AMOC at 26.5°N has been observed by the RAPID array since 2004 and has an average of about 17.0 Sv (1 Sv ≡106 m3/s). The time series shows variability on all timescales, including a weakening of 15% over the length of the record (Smeed et al., 2018). Many climate models display variability of the AMOC on decadal and multidecadal timescales (e.g., Muir & Fedorov, 2015, 2017). Most models also predict a gradual weakening of the AMOC over the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing (e.g., Cheng et al., 2013; Weaver et al., 2012). In fact, Dima and Lohmann (2010), Rahmstorf et al. (2015), and Caesar et al. (2018) argue that such a gradual slowdown has already started and is noticeable in proxy records of the AMOC from the midtwentieth century.
Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis
W. Weijer  W. Cheng  S. S. Drijfhout  A. V. Fedorov  A. Hu  L. C. Jackson  W. Liu  E. L. McDonagh  J. V. Mecking  J. Zhang
First published: 24 July 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083


5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Tides
« on: August 04, 2020, 08:09:30 AM »

I am with binntho... Again.
Tides are not a significant influence in the Arctic ocean.
In deeper water over 20m or so tidal flows do not have much if any effect.
Wave and swell action are far more significant at such depths.
Fifty odd years of pissing around in boats and  many hours scuba diving reinforces my views.
Unless tidal flows are constrained by topography the effects  are insignificant.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 02, 2020, 08:29:14 PM »
Eye of the storm blog is finally up and running for those who formally watched Category six.
 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/updates-on-hurricane-isaias-from-eye-on-the-storm/

Forecast for Isaias
Quote
Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.

7
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:00:20 PM »
Quote
I try to look at it from all sides, and decide which is most valid.
“You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

― Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Polar bear science is about   as valid referencing  WUWT or Tony Hella .
You don't need me or anyone else to point out its nonsense all it needs  is  critical thinking and a little time researching your source.
Have a look at her blog it is full of  circular references to her own unpublished work and  her  books for sale not  published peer reviewed  papers. 
Here is the list of  references on her blog.
https://polarbearscience.com/about-2/
Feel free to  find a single peer reviewed paper in a reputable scientific journal on modern polar bear ecology she has published .

This exploitation of polar bears by the  climate denial echo chambers has been explored in depth.
 
Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy
Jeffrey A Harvey, Daphne van den Berg, Jacintha Ellers, Remko Kampen, Thomas W Crowther, Peter Roessingh, Bart Verheggen, Rascha J M Nuijten, Eric Post, Stephan Lewandowsky ...
BioScience, Volume 68, Issue 4, April 2018, Pages 281–287, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/bix133
Published: 29 November 2017

excerpt.
Quote
Approximately 80% of the denier blogs cited here referred to one particular denier blog, Polar Bear Science, by Susan Crockford, as their primary source of discussion and debate on the status of polar bears. Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of sea ice on the population dynamics of polar bears. However, she has published notes and “briefings” through a conservative think tank, the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), and is described by them as “an expert on polar bear evolution.” Similarly, the Heartland Institute, another conservative think tank that downplays AGW, describes her as “one of the world's foremost experts on polar bears.” Prominent among blogs giving Crockford's blog disproportionate attention are WUWT and CD, suggesting that her blog reaches a large audience.
For a contrast to Susan  Crockford.
Google the co authors of the linked paper Steven Amstrup, Ian Stirling and Eric Post they are actual world experts on arctic ecology and polar bears . 
 

8
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 01, 2020, 01:23:44 AM »
Quote
That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.
logic error.
non sequitur.
Ecological collapse is not the same thing as cutting down trees.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-climate-change-and-deforestation-spark-amazon-dieback




9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Off Topic
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:31:13 AM »
Seems to me that heavy ice cover creates its own conditions that helps retain it .
Bottom melt results in a layer of fresh water that insulates the ice from warmer seas below.
Extensive ice cover limits the effects of wave action.
In our new regime Ice cover is not as heavy so that fresh water layer can be disrupted by wind and wave action. Once there is large gaps in the cover it allows sea state to build mixing the fresh water surface layer with warmer  salty water lower down in the water column allowing its energy  to directly contact the ice .





10
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:37:09 PM »
Quote
A single drop of evidence that personal car ownership over public transport will beat climate change. Anything. Please. For the love of god. Will this forum that prides itself as a scientific forum give me a single piece of evidence.
AKA construct a straw man and expect us to demolish it for you.
Your imagination you deal with it.

 More people use personal cars than public transport every day.
Replacing ice cars with electric ones is a win for climate change .
Musk is proposing to make personal ownership of cars obsolete. As a personal  car is used about 2% of the time increasing  that usage rate by a large margin makes better use of the emissions inherent in its construction. Another win for climate change.

Your straw man presents a binary option private cars / public transport.
This is a technique common with deniers ...pick only  only one technology then state it will not solve climate change alone so is not worth pursuing.
In the real world a range of solutions will limit our emissions  not any one technology by itself .

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:51:01 AM »
I try to keep off this thread as I don't know enough to add value .
Just to place my thoughts in the record .
Months of high insolation equals excess energy  going into the arctic seas  .
Coming wind and wave action allowing that energy  to melt the remaining ice.
2020  will be a Record melt year .

ps
Friv your comments  are always a priority read .
Thanks for the effort.



12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 08:25:00 PM »

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 20, 2020, 08:41:29 PM »
I find nannings hubris grating.
He benefits from his highly developed society yet seeks to pull it down to his level.
An entire society  rejecting the modern world  has been tried before .
Year zero being one example.
The outcome was a horrific toll on human life and dignity.
I chose to live much as nanning does.
I do not think making every one else live as i do is possible without the use of force that would be more destructive to both humanity and the environment as business as usual .

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Life Without
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:21:34 PM »
So nanning
You don't make use of your country's excellent social welfare provisions ?
Under which any adult citizen of the Netherlands  is entitled to  receive 70%  of the mandated minimum wage of about 20,000 euros a year with further provisions for hard ship and to assist  in providing a roof over their head .
That money comes from and is therefore  taking part of our technological extractive civilization.

You don't like private cars and think we should go without.
in your country it may be possible to have a life without one due to population density, geology and climate.
In many places it may not be so easy to live without a car.
It is less than two kilometres as the crow flys to my work place.
To get there is a  14km drive on a mostly unsealed road around a range of hills that are 100 meters higher than the highest point in your entire country. Last week it rained here 220 mm fell in 12 hours that is three months average rainfall in your country .   NZ has a population density of 15 persons per sqkm for the Netherlands the  population density is 488 per sqkm. There is little public transport in northland  it is simply too uneconomic to provide outside of Whangarei city. A Private car is a necessity not a luxury in NZ outside of the large city's.

You recently complained of usa centric commentators. Me thinks you should also be weary of your own bias for the situation in your own surrounding .


15
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 10:12:20 AM »
Anne
I like that this forum has a space for the discussion of forum decorum and I take great hart in the quality of comments and the ability for this community to work though issues.
Neven has become too busy to devote time to this forum.
We are lucky with the quality of those who put their names forward for what will  be a time consuming, frustrating, ultimately thankless endeavour to herd us cats .




16
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 19, 2020, 08:24:19 AM »
Mods are

Cryosphere oren.
 
AGW in general kassy.

Off topic  be cause, blumenkraft.


Quote
“You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time”.”
John Lydgate

17
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 18, 2020, 11:26:54 PM »

Just the delete the trollperson who is blatantly intent on sowing discord. 

18
500 year rainfall event just north of me .
220 millimetres of rain fell in Whangārei from 7pm last night until around 7am this morning.
Quote
"So to put that in perspective, that kind of event - getting 220mm of rain overnight - it has a return period of more than 500 years. So we're expecting that once in 500 years."
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/clean-up-begins-after-whang-rei-gets-220-millimetres-rain-overnight-metservice-says
Last summer was a  historic drought here we did have water restrictions  .

19
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 14, 2020, 07:54:29 PM »
We have a simple mission statement.
Interesting discussions .
Right under the banner arctic sea ice forum.
The big canary we are all intensely aware of .

canary in a coal mine - Wiktionary
Quote
canary in a coal mine (plural canaries in a coal mine or canaries in coal mines) (idiomatic) Something whose sensitivity to adverse conditions makes it a useful early indicator of such conditions; something which warns of the coming of greater danger or trouble by a deterioration in its health or welfare.

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 13, 2020, 08:34:01 PM »
Going towards electric cars also forwards the technology for electrification of others areas .
like electric buses, mining and farm equipment .
I can not imagine  public transport working out here in the country side.
I also think the ecomodernism idea of us all living in highly congested city's is nutty as it will result in a population even more disconnected with nature and more degradation of the environment.

21
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 12, 2020, 08:13:19 AM »
Quote
Every man has the right to an opinion but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts. Nor, above all, to persist in errors as to facts.
1946. Bernard Baruch


22
Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: July 10, 2020, 11:22:06 PM »
You are not talking about the same things .
The long term progression in earths orbit are not the same as the short term effects of solar cycles.
 https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2948/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate/
The progression of the milannkovith cycles is the reason for the slow cooling trend in the last 6500 years not total solar irradiance. AGW has the opposite effect it warms the arctic as anyone reading this blog will know is happening perhaps three times faster than the rate the entire planet is warming at. 
You also seem to not know the difference between Transient climate response, Equilibrium climate sensitivity and Earth system sensitivity
The Short term warming trend is not equal to the full effects of our changes to the composition of the earths atmosphere.
If we could hold CO2  at the present level we will continue to warm for tens of thousands of years.
Our current 1.3C over pre industrial temperatures is only about 1/3 to 1/2 the warming we can expect in the next few hundred years or so from present levels of CO2.
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/transient-and-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity/#:~:text=The%20latter%20is%20often%20quantified,%2C%20doubling%20requires%2070%20years.)

One word sums your position up .
Denial.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 07, 2020, 09:16:20 PM »
I agree that all forms should be explored.
 I was  pointing out inverters can do frequency control.
A flywheel is just an energy storage device like a battery.
Some sort of generator and inverters will convert the stored energy in the flywheel to what is required to control frequency on the grid.
Hornsdale has 70 MW dedicated to frequency control.
Note power MW is not the same as capacity MWH.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 07, 2020, 01:08:20 PM »
Inverter systems can frequency match or if they are large enough make the frequency.
Even  my off grid  inverter can match output frequency to a generator or the grid when its connected to another power source.
A previous Now twenty year old one I had could load share with the grid.
It is not much of a leap for a grid tye  type inverter system that has sufficient capacity to control the grids frequency as   horsdale power reserve does with Tesla's battery's and inverters. Tesla is building a virtual power plant in Au based on distributed inverters and storage that can do grid scale frequency modulation just as the hornsdale power reserve  does .
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/teslas-australian-virtual-power-plant-propped-up-grid-during-coal-outage/568812/
Quote
The 50,000-home virtual power plant (VPP) Tesla is developing in South Australia helped maintain grid stability when a coal-fired unit in Queensland tripped offline and reduced system supply by 748 MW in October.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator, the outage caused power system frequency to drop below normal levels but Tesla's VPP was able to inject power from hundreds of individual residential batteries to help return the system frequency back to stable levels.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 07, 2020, 12:16:50 PM »
Battery's and inverters  can also do frequency control .
Quote
70MW of output is reserved for maintenance of grid stability. Power grids require careful management of their many connected generators, in order to make sure that the voltage and frequency of the grid remain in acceptable bounds. This is achieved through maintaining a balance between the supply and demand of electricity across the entire grid. Sudden changes in either supply or demand require quick reactions from attached generators in order to avoid major excursions that can risk taking the grid offline, or lead to rolling blackouts. Commonly, this happens when a major generator such as a coal plant has a fault, or when a soap opera ends in England and thousands of households all switch on the kettle at the same time. This is referred to as Frequency Control and Ancilliary Services (FCAS) in the local market, and is typically handled by gas-powered generators, which can respond on timescales of seconds to minutes.The Hornsdale battery, however, is capable of much faster response times. On December 14th, 2017, the Loy Yang A coal generator tripped, causing the sudden loss of 560 MW of generation from the grid. Upon the main frequency dropping to 49.8 Hz, in mere milliseconds, the Hornsdale installation delivered 7.3 MW to the grid to prop up the frequency over a period of several minutes, while other infrastructure was brought online. This fast-discharge capability has allowed the battery to beat other generators to the punch. This has brought the battery’s owners, Nueon, significant profits from the provision of FCAS services to the grid, taking 55% of the market from existing operators. There have been complaints that the existing billing system is not actually fast enough to properly compensate the battery’s owners for its output, as the system was originally designed around conventional generation which is slower to respond.
https://hackaday.com/2019/12/16/the-hornsdale-power-reserve-and-what-it-means-for-grid-battery-storage/
Even my off grid inverter can frequency match generator or grid input. Any distributed battery inverter virtual power plant like Tesla is building in AU can also do frequency support.

On must ask how much power can you store in this flywheel ?
I have googled and looked around for details but nowhere is quoting a capacity in kw.
This makes me think its being overhyped .

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 04, 2020, 01:53:45 AM »

GoSouthYoungins
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3931 on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:55 AM

Quote
Wow, so apparently everyone has an IQ of like 70 on this thread. Cool.  I've always wanted to do some charity work.


Capex being smaller than deprec isn't some silver bullet. I was simply pointing to it to show that Neil 70IQ-idea that Tesla was totally profitable but just spending the money on other stuff was total nonsense.

There were all sorts or responses. None of them made sense. Oren's was by far the closest.


I think I will wait to post here again until the BK happens. So goodbye for the next few months. You are all "not-brilliant" as neven wishes me to phrase it.

Q3 financials will be a disaster. fElon is already throwing a tantrum and attacking reporting who are, you know, reporting facts. My guess is about a half a B loss for this joke of a company.

It is truly sad that this corporate fraud as suckered so many good spirited ppl into this charade. Good day non-geniuses. Until the biggest "I told you so" ever, so long.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/RationalWiki:Leaving_and_never_coming_back




27
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 02, 2020, 09:56:04 PM »
I think all grids are undergoing  change and meeting resistance from the existing operators who seek to persevere both their profits and their obsolete fossil fuel  centralized generation paradigm at the cost of our climate .
It was not possible to a address Nannings comments with out spending the time to look into the local system and reasons for the failure to advance towards renewable generation.
GSY was just trolling  and added nothing of value besides exposing  more commentators to examples of his idiocy.   


28
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 29, 2020, 05:51:33 AM »
Quote
Let us be happy with and celebrate the existence of this forum; its general high level, its stability and functionality, its international character, its good and relaxed moderators and its vast scope.
Well said nanning.
 Plus one.
Politics is a necessary evil .
It is the only way we will save humanity from the result of our uncontrolled experiment in atmospheric physics.
If you don't want to play in the politics threads don't if you think someone is too political block them for your own piece of mind.
  Problem solved.
Without intruding on others desire to discus the subject.

29
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: June 27, 2020, 10:55:42 PM »
I built raised beds  300 high with 150x25 timber my brother over ordered.
In the base I placed a thick layer of sticks the dog collects on our daily walk then covered the pile with the local nutrient-poor topsoil  some commercial  compost from the local garden waste recycling company along with cow manure from the paddocks .
Seemed to work well except last year was a record drought here in Northland so soil moisture was an ongoing issue.  As expected under global warming the Northland region is drying out  :o in between extreme rainfall events like this last week. Long term changes in climate are something to keep in mind when you are developing gardens or an  orchard today.
Next year I intend to add an automatic watering system to keep soil moisture up when I am away if we get a repeat. 
Raised beds make it easy to weed and help prevent our locally rampant kikuyu grass invading the gardens. The sticks add bulk ,help to retain moisture, aerate the soil, encourage fungi , add some extra bottom heat as they  slowly rot down and build up the humus content in the soil over time.  and it makes the dogs habit of collecting one each day useful .

30
Antarctica / Re: Historic Antarctic Expeditions
« on: June 25, 2020, 10:46:42 AM »

I have a copy of The crossing of Antarctica : the Commonwealth Trans-Antarctic Expedition, 1955-1958
It has the story of the expedition  from both  Ed Hillary and  Dr Vivian Fuchs perspective .
Being a kiwi I am of course biased. 8)
Sir Ed knocked another bastard off......  ;D
I own a  Ferguson TE-20 tractor ...To take such a basic contrivance  to the south pole is an amazing effort of grit, determination and endurance and a  legendary example of the Kiwi  "number eight wire"  mentality . The men that used dog sleds to make epic geological survey journeys across vast regions of the Antarctic  concurrent with Eds push to the pole also deserve far more recognition for the work they did.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 23, 2020, 08:03:40 AM »
Limiting warming to 1.5C is impossible.
2C is improbable.
GISTEMPv4c 1990 to 2020 Trend: 0.220 ±0.063 °C/decade (2σ)
Barring massive change or volcanic event We should see the first year with an average temperature over 1.5C by 2030 over 2C some time in the 2050's.

32
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 21, 2020, 05:35:30 AM »
Denial of reality .
I have two posters on my short list who I believe regularly insult this community by posting AGW denial.
At what point do they cross the line into out right denial and ban able behavior ?
AFAIK The last person who was banned from this forum was Klondike Kat . Klondike received the censure  during a discussion with me. I believe Klondike Kat at  that time was less deserving than those on my short list .
FWIW .
Alternative views can be  a learning experience .
Most of my learning about AGW was actually the result of research enabling the debunking of denial memes on political forums. I don't think we on this science centered forum should tolerate denial as was rampant in the political forums I was engaged in at the time.   


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 19, 2020, 04:30:00 PM »
Science Briefs
Modeling the Dust Bowl Climate Forcings
By Benjamin Cook — June 2008
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/cook_01/
Quote
Recurrent periods of drought are a common feature of North American climate, often the result of colder than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific (so-called La Niña conditions). One such drought, the "Dust Bowl" of the 1930s, resulted in widespread crop failure, dust storms, and the displacement of thousands of people.

The Dust Bowl drought was atypical for a North American drought in many ways, most notably the fact that it was centered over the Great Plains rather than in the southwest and was accompanied by large scale dust storms that were unprecedented in the historical record. The dust storms themselves resulted from a combination of dry conditions, poor land use practices, and large scale crop failures that exposed easily erodible bare soil to the strong winds of the Great Plains. Many climate models, however, have difficulty reproducing the precipitation pattern of the Dust Bowl drought using SSTs alone. Could the dust storms themselves explain the anomalous drought?

Map of atmospheric dust loading over North America
Figure 1, at left: Ensemble mean differences in total atmospheric dust loading, g/m2, Experiment 3 (SST+Dust) minus Experiment 2 (SST only). Outlined are the eight grid boxes that constitute the new dust source in the SST+Dust experiments. View larger image.

The impact of dust on precipitation is an active area of research. Dust in the atmosphere reflects sunlight back to space, reducing temperatures at the surface as well as evaporation. If evaporation is sufficiently reduced, then the supply of moisture for cloud formation and precipitation can also be severely reduced, resulting in decreased precipitation. Thus, there is a strong potential that the added dust in the atmosphere during this drought could have intensified the drought by reducing precipitation over the plains.

Maps of precipitation anomalies over North America

Figure 2, at right: Spatial extent and magnitude of precipitation anomalies for 1932-1939. Shown are data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) dataset and output from the two GISS model experiments (SST only in middle panel and SST+Dust in bottom panel). For GHCN data, anomalies are relative to GHCN data for 1920-1929. For model experiments, anomalies are relative to the SST forcing (1920-1929) experiment. View larger image.

To test the effect of atmospheric dust, we ran the GISS climate model with observed SSTs for 1932-1939, with and without the presence of a dust source over the Great Plains. Figure 1 shows the increase in model atmospheric dust when this source is added, relative to a simulation without the added dust source. Figure 2 shows the observed precipitation anomaly (top panel), the model generated precipitation anomaly with SST forcing only (middle panel), and the model generated precipitation anomaly with the effects of observed SSTs and the added dust source (bottom panel).

When the effect of dust is included in our climate model, we get a much more realistic simulation of the drought. The SST only drought is centered too far south and is not dry enough compared to observations. When the dust source is added, the drying intensifies and the center of the drought moves north over the Great Plains. This suggest that human land degradation was an integral part of the Dust Bowl story.

Since then, the U.S. has developed strict soil conservation and erosion control measures under the auspices of the Soil Conservation Service to prevent events like the Dust Bowl from reoccurring. In the developing world, however, as population pressure and climate changes pushes farmers onto more and more marginal land, the potential for reoccurence of Dust Bowl-like conditions in these regions is increasingly likely. Vulnerable areas include both interior China and semi-arid regions of Africa, where the landscape is particularly vulnerable.

Reference:
Cook, B.I., R.L. Miller, and R. Seager, 2008: Dust and sea surface temperature forcing of the 1930s "Dust Bowl" drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08710, doi:10.1029/2008GL033486

The lack of summer warming in the Continental USA is due entirely to the records from the dustbowl in the 30's.
A human enhanced event having nothing to do with global warming .
Remove this event from the record and there is warming during summer in the USA.
As there is in all mid latitudes.

34
Quote
I wish all forum readers would take their personal responsibility and stop being a part of the problem of Climate Change.

We as a rule do .
Just not exactly as you do.

Some random philosopher dude about 2,000 years ago was claimed to say.
 ἐν ᾧ γὰρ κρίματι κρίνετε κριθήσεσθε, καὶ ἐν ᾧ μέτρῳ μετρεῖτε μετρηθήσεται ὑμῖν.
Translated as.
 "For in the way you judge, you will be judged; and by your standard of measure, it will be measured to you.

Giving a shite.
I know exactly where the water comes from and where it all goes when I flush the toilet . The process has a net negative carbon impact as it uses rain water from my roof and feeds the worms in the  Biodigester buried in the garden. All power used is from solar on site. Any residual by products end up enhancing the new podocarp-hardwood forest I am nurturing over the 400sqm dispersal field so will lock up carbon for a very, very long time. Over the next twenty or so years I expect the carbon stored within the dispersal field will fully off set the energy used to create the entire system water pump, pipes, tanks even the solar panels that supply the power and sequester still more to help offset other facets of my lifestyle  . My legacy will be to leave a covenant over the forest here so it will be preserved as a carbon sink long after I am but dust and long forgotten  echos .

How about  what happens when you take a shite?
Power to supply the water, environmental impact of the source it comes from and again power to pump it somewhere else and more environmental degradation from the treatment process ?

Perfect is the enemy of the good  .
Not one of us has zero impact. All homoidiotics on this planet have an environment impact to some degree even your friends living a communal hunter gatherer lifestyle in the rain forest.
   
Most of us on here work to sway understanding in those around us and take some responsibility for our lifestyles . Better to celebrate our collective efforts as a net positive than judge and find us all wanting by your standards.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 19, 2020, 08:32:19 AM »
What's causing Arctic amplification?
https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=67

The warming trend in the Arctic is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This is known as Arctic amplification. What's the cause? Changes in cloud cover, increases in atmospheric water vapour, more atmospheric heat transport from lower latitudes and declining sea ice have all been suggested as contributing factors. A new paper The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification (Screen & Simmonds 2010) (here's the full paperhttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/43352154_The_Central_Role_of_Diminishing_Sea_Ice_in_Recent_Arctic_Temperature_Amplification) examines this question. The title is a bit of a give-away  - the decline in sea ice is the major driver of Arctic amplification.

The vertical profile of Arctic warming (i.e. - how much warming occurs at different altitudes) gives us insight into the underlying cause. If atmospheric heat transported from lower latitudes was the major driver, more warming would be expected at greater heights. On the other hand, if retreating snow and sea ice cover was the major cause, maximum warming would be expected at the surface. Figure 1 shows the simulated warming expected in each season if declining sea ice was the major cause of warming.


Figure 1: Temperature trends linked to changes in sea ice. Temperature trends over the 1989–2008 period averaged around circles of latitude for winter (a), spring (b), summer (c) and autumn (d). The trends are derived from projections of the temperature field on the sea ice time series.

Using higher resolution temperature data supplemented with updated satellite measurements, Screen 2010 analyse the observe warming trend in each season. What they find is maximum Arctic warming at the surface and that warming lessens with height in all seasons except summer. This vertical structure suggests that changes at the surface, such as decreases in sea ice and snow cover, are the primary causes of recent Arctic amplification.

Figure 2: Observation of temperature trends, 1989–2008. Temperature trends averaged around circles of latitude for winter (December–February; a), spring (March–May; b), summer (June–August; c) and autumn (September–November; d). Red shading indicates that the lower atmosphere has warmed faster than the atmospheric column as whole. Blue shading indicates that the lower atmosphere has warmed slower than the atmospheric column as a whole.

The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification
James A. Screen & Ian Simmonds
Nature volume 464, pages1334–1337(2010)Cite this article
956 Citations

Abstract
Quote
The rise in Arctic near-surface air temperatures has been almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades1,2,3—a feature known as ‘Arctic amplification’. Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have driven Arctic and global average warming1,4; however, the underlying causes of Arctic amplification remain uncertain. The roles of reductions in snow and sea ice cover5,6,7 and changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation8,9,10, cloud cover and water vapour11,12 are still matters of debate. A better understanding of the processes responsible for the recent amplified warming is essential for assessing the likelihood, and impacts, of future rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss13,14. Here we show that the Arctic warming is strongest at the surface during most of the year and is primarily consistent with reductions in sea ice cover. Changes in cloud cover, in contrast, have not contributed strongly to recent warming. Increases in atmospheric water vapour content, partly in response to reduced sea ice cover, may have enhanced warming in the lower part of the atmosphere during summer and early autumn. We conclude that diminishing sea ice has had a leading role in recent Arctic temperature amplification. The findings reinforce suggestions that strong positive ice–temperature feedbacks have emerged in the Arctic15, increasing the chances of further rapid warming and sea ice loss, and will probably affect polar ecosystems, ice-sheet mass balance and human activities in the Arctic2.



36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 18, 2020, 09:31:34 PM »
He has not proven his absurd idea that summers are not warming because of green house gasses.
He has simply pasted links to spectra that no where supports summers will not warm .


Regional climate change and national responsibilities
James Hansen and Makiko Sato
Published 2 March 2016 • © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 3

Abstract
Quote
Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the 'bell curve' defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.



On going outright denial that takes up effort to endlessly debunk .... simply ban him.

37
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: June 18, 2020, 02:09:15 PM »
Care to prove the keeling curve is now linear?
Or is that just your eyeballs?
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2019/06/04/carbon-dioxide-levels-hit-record-peak-in-may/
Carbon Dioxide Levels Hit Record Peak in May
Quote
In Climate in the News, Keeling Curve History, Measurement Notes by Rob MonroeJune 4, 2019

Monthly average surpassed 414 parts per million at Mauna Loa Observatory

Atmospheric carbon dioxide continued its rapid rise in 2019, with the average for May peaking at 414.8 parts per million (ppm), according to instruments operated by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory, scientists from NOAA and Scripps announced today.

This is the highest seasonal peak recorded in 61 years of observations on top of Hawaii’s largest volcano, and the seventh consecutive year of steep global increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide, or CO2. The 2019 peak value was 3.5 parts per million higher than the 411.3 ppm peak reached in May 2018; it represents the second-highest annual jump on record.

Monthly CO2 values at Mauna Loa first breached the 400 ppm threshold in 2014.

May 2020:       417.07 ppm

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
 

38
Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: June 16, 2020, 09:58:40 AM »
Quote
It's very disturbing that the enormous range of possible ECS's persists between these models. Currently, with AR5 and CMIP5, the range is from 1.5 - 4.5

CMIP5 models do not have a range encompassing 1.5C that lower bound is only derived from observational based modeling of ECS.
I doubt that a lower bound of 1.5C will hold into AR6 as much work has been published attempting to reconcile the low results of some observational based models with other methods.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity


39
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 15, 2020, 08:31:45 PM »
Temporary? Or will most of us once gain jump onto the bus to oblivion?
Most of us are oblivious.

Not every one will return to pre Covid habits.
What I think will happen is we will see a small decrease in rampant consumerism once the virus has run its course .
Some will look towards cleaner transport after seeing the horizon for the first time,  more will continue to work from home saving time, money and fossil fuel use, some will realize endlessly buying tat on credit is not such a good idea.

So a net good result for AGW but not the extreme change in lifestyle those who are climate aware know we need .

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 14, 2020, 10:08:29 PM »
Re discussion on fuel efficiency for transport under coal thread .
From the EPA fueleconomy web site.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml

EVs are 60% to 73% efficient, depending upon drive cycle. However, if the energy recaptured from regenerative braking is counted (i.e., recounted when it is re-used), EVs are 77% to 100% efficient.

Only about 12%–30% of the energy from the fuel you put in a conventional vehicle is used to move it down the road, depending on the drive cycle.

41
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 09, 2020, 11:04:14 PM »
Does everyone know how the ignore list works??

I find it effective to hide the comments of those I think are a total waste of space.
View it as a public service to other users if it stops you clogging up threads with endless replies to their inane nonsense.
 :)




42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 08, 2020, 09:35:16 PM »
More detail can be found here.
https://electrek.co/2020/04/24/tesla-paten-electrode-million-mile-battery/

There have been leaks about other advances and hints that tesla intends to build its own battery production lines.
  We are waiting on the postponed battery day for information on Tesla's plans.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 07, 2020, 10:22:32 PM »
New Zealand.
Zero new cases for sixteen days, zero community transmissions for two months,  one active case.
We will go back to normal life  this week.
As NZ is the only developed country to successfully eliminate the virus  we will retain boarder restrictions and quarantine new arrivals for fourteen days to keep your germs out.

44
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 30, 2020, 01:54:17 AM »
No sweat nanning
Happy to try and help.
I thank vox' for resolving your issue .

45
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 29, 2020, 08:25:35 AM »
Might just be a  software compatibility problem at your end Nanning.
Using Windows 7 and google chrome.

I still see the  Off-topic header on the home page.
Underneath The three subheadings .

The forum
Commentary, commendations, commandments, complaints.

The politics
Enter at your own peril.

The rest
Everything that doesn't fit elsewhere.


46
The rest / Re: Cannabis and Hemp
« on: May 25, 2020, 09:58:29 PM »
I used to grow under lights using hydroponics in a  closet.
Four plants gave about 500 grams of dried bud.
Seedling to finished product  in eight weeks.
Cost a little for the power keeps your crop away from human pests.
You can get active carbon air filters that mostly eliminate the smell .
When I was growing it was using HPS lights you can now get LED's that are  cheaper to run have a longer service life, more targeted wavelengths and do not have the same amount of wasted energy as heat you must control .

We have a referendum here in NZ on recreational use in September this year .
Hopefully it passes so I can go back to smoking the herb rather than drinking poison for recreation.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Can cannabis save the world?
« on: May 24, 2020, 10:24:08 AM »
Modern Inverter based fridges use a lot less  power. About 30% less than older style single speed compressor fridges. The energy saved will pay for the new fridge  over  a few years. 

Its a weed.
Growing Cannabis outdoors can be just like growing Tomatoes or any other veg you do not need to go overboard unless you want to. Keep it watered  in good soil and the bugs off  you can not go wrong.

48
Consequences / Re: World of 3000
« on: May 23, 2020, 08:55:53 PM »
Warning doomer.

Do Surface temps and sea level still exist if there is no one to see it?   

1000 years of "progress" The more technology the greater our ability to truly fuck things up.
Earth a lifeless rock lit with the green glow from the still smoldering remains of homo idiotic's civilizations.

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 11, 2020, 07:46:17 AM »
New Zealand
Covid-19: PM Jacinda Ardern reveals staggered move to alert level 2
https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/alert-level-2/
Quote
Moving to Alert Level 2
The Government has announced New Zealand will move from Alert Level 3 to Alert Level 2 at 11.59pm on Wednesday 13 May. Until then we are still in Alert Level 3.

Temporary limits on gathering numbers will be in place when we first move to Alert Level 2.

Cabinet will review Alert Level 2 restrictions on Monday 25 May.

Play it safe
You will have more freedom of movement at Alert Level 2, but it’s up to each one of us to keep the rest of New Zealand safe.

These are the most important things that you can do:

COVID-19 is still out there. Play it safe.
Keep your distance from other people in public.
If you’re sick, stay home. Don’t go to work or school. Don’t socialise.
If you have symptoms of cold or flu call your doctor or Healthline and get tested.
Wash your hands. Wash your hands. Wash your hands.
Sneeze and cough into your elbow, regularly disinfect surfaces.
If you have been told to self-isolate you must do so immediately.
Keep a track of where you’ve been and who you’ve seen.
Life at Alert Level 2
Life at Alert Level 2 means we can resume many of our everyday activities — but we have to do so safely.

Most businesses can open if they can do it safely. This will help to get people back to work.
We can go in-store at local businesses.
Tertiary education facilities, schools and early learning centres will be open.
We can travel between regions.
Initially gatherings like weddings, funerals, tangihanga, religious ceremonies and social gatherings can have up to 10 people.
We can safely connect and socialise with close friends and family, in groups of 10.
We can visit local cafes and restaurants bars and pubs to have a meal.
We can return to our regular recreation activities, at first keeping to 10 people.
Controls at Alert Level 2
Alert Level 2 is not life as normal, some restrictions and other measures remain in place to reduce the risk of transmission.

We need to maintain physical distancing.
We will keep tight controls in place at our borders.
Our wide-scale testing will continue.
We will find and self-isolate anyone who is unwell and their close contacts.
There will be measures in place to allow some safe travel and socialising.
Only small, controlled gatherings will be permitted.
Early childhood centres, schools and tertiary organisations will see most people returning — with controls in place.
Physical distancing, hygiene standards and contact registers will make businesses safe.
Personal movement
At Alert Level 2, you can leave home to do more things, but you should follow public health measures and consider others around you.

Follow these physical distancing rules:

Keep your distance in public from people you do not know (ideally 2 metres).
1 metre from others in most other environments, unless there are mitigating measures. Examples of times where you should keep 1 metre between groups include cafes, church groups, gatherings, restaurants and retail stores.
Take extra care if you interact with people you don’t know. These situations include playgrounds, parks, shopping malls or walking along the street.
There will be a few times at Alert Level 2 where it won’t be possible to maintain physical distancing, so there will be other measures to manage public health risks. Examples include hairdressing, physiotherapists, home help, and public transport.

Gatherings, events, and public venues
Gathering at your home
You can have friends and family over to your home, but gatherings are limited to:

up to 10 people, or the people who usually live in your house.
for up 2 hours.
Play it safe — keep surfaces clean, wash your hands, and keep the numbers low so you can practice safe distancing.

Gathering outside your home
You can attend gatherings in controlled settings outside of your home. Gatherings include:

weddings
funerals and tangihanga
family events
religious services
public meetings.
Gatherings must:

have no more than 10 people
not be longer than 2 hours
keep high hygiene standards
record attendees to ensure contact tracing can be conducted if necessary.
You can’t participate in any gatherings if you have COVID-19 symptoms or if you need to be in isolation for any reason.

Public venues
Many public venues will be open again at Alert Level 2. This includes:

museums and libraries
cinemas
markets
restaurants, cafes and bars (only for dining at first).
Sport and recreation facilities are covered in the sport recreation section

Venues must:
keep groups of attendees 1 metre apart
not have groups larger than 10 people
not have more than 100 people — this excludes staff.
Hospitality venues can only serve customers if they are there to dine.

Some venues may stay shut if they can’t open safely.

Exercise, sport and recreation
You can do your usual exercise, sport and recreation activities, provided you can do them safely.

This includes activities that were restricted previously, including:

walking, biking and hunting on public conservation land
swimming at a public swimming pool, but there will be restrictions
going to the gym, but there will be restrictions
boating and motorised watersports
hunting during duck shooting season — start date to be announced.
Government is working with community sports organisations to work through how sport can be restarted safely.

High-level sporting events
NZ Super Rugby and ANZ Premiership Netball professional leagues can go ahead at Alert Level 2 because they take place in controlled workplaces. The details for these events will be developed with Sport New Zealand and WorkSafe. Initially, they will happen without crowds but they can be broadcast.

High Performance Sport New Zealand activities can take place at Alert Level 2 using a controlled workplace approach in consultation with WorkSafe.

Workplaces and businesses
At Alert Level 2 businesses can operate if they’re able to do so safely.

Engaging with customers
At Alert Level 2 businesses can have customers on their premises if they can meet public health requirements. This means businesses should:

have good contact registers, or contact tracing records, in place to record everyone who you interact with on your premises
maintain physical distancing of 1 metre between groups of customers, or 2 metres if not possible to keep contact tracing records
not have groups larger than 10 people
maintain a 2 hour time limit for groups to be on your premises.
Services can also be provided on customers’ premises, for example, cleaning and home help.

Most businesses can open their premises to the public:

cafes, restaurants, and bars for dining
hardware, gardening, and clothing retailers
butchers, bakeries, and fishmongers.
Hospitality businesses should keep groups seated, separated, and use a single server if possible. This means each group has one server, though servers can each serve more than one table.

Work involving close personal contact
For some businesses, close personal contact is required to deliver a service. This includes:

hairdressers
home help providers.
These businesses can operate if they have measures like:

have robust contact registers in place
maintain good hygiene practices
minimise contact to the extent possible.
Specific guidance for key sectors is being developed by Government and will be available soon.

Doing business safely
The key public health requirements stay the same at Alert Level 2. Businesses should maintain hygiene measures, including physical distancing, hand washing and regularly cleaning surfaces.

All businesses are encouraged to use alternative ways of working if possible. This means businesses that don’t normally have customers on their premises could continue to have staff work from home.

If workers are sick with symptoms of COVID-19, they should stay home.

Self-isolation advice if you’re unwell

Golden rules for business at Alert Level 2
Do everything you can to reduce the risk of COVID-19 transmission at work — we all have a part to play in keeping each other safe.

COVID-19 is still out there. Play it safe.
Most businesses can operate if they can do so safely. Alternative ways of working are still encouraged where possible.
Talk with your workers to identify risks and ways to manage them.
Ask everyone, workers, contractors and customers, with cold or flu-like symptoms to stay away from your premises.
Keep groups of customers at least 1 metre apart.
Keep contact-tracing records of anyone who will have close interaction (workers, contractors or customers).
Reduce the number of shared surfaces, and regularly disinfect them.
Wash your hands. Wash your hands. Wash your hands.
Travel and transport
You can travel, but make sure you do it in a safe way.

COVID-19 is a disease you can spread without knowing you have it. You can travel around the country if you follow good personal health measures. You will need to keep records of what travel services you use and keep track of who you have been in contact with. You should keep your distance from groups of people you don’t know. You should minimise the number of places you stop on the way to your destination.

You must not travel to events which do not meet the requirements for gatherings at Alert Level 2.

Tips for minimising risk while travelling:

Try to limit taking public transport, or use at off-peak times.
Avoid sitting next to someone you don’t know, or standing.
If you’re flying or taking other forms of transport that involve bookings, follow the physical distancing instructions from your transport operators.
You must not travel if you are displaying symptoms of COVID-19, awaiting a test, or if you need to self-isolate.
Education
Early learning services, schools and tertiary education facilities will all open at Alert Level 2.

On the advice of public health officials, any educational facilities connected to a confirmed or probable case of COVID-19 must close on an individual or group basis to allow contact tracing, and then potentially for a further 14 days.

Early learning services and schools
All early learning centres and schools will be physically open including years 11 to 13. Distance learning will be available for those unable to attend school, for example where people are self-isolating.

Early learning services and schools are safe environments for children, young people and staff. Additional public health control measures are in place to prevent the spread of disease and to support contact tracing.

Tertiary education
Tertiary education facilities are open.

Tertiary education is a safe environment for students and staff to return to at Alert level 2. Tertiary education facilities will implement public health requirements and physical distancing as appropriate for the context, and will work closely to ensure a safe environment where students can continue their learning.  They will need to maintain distance learning capability to help manage within these constraints, and ensure safety of staff and students at risk of COVID-19.

Workplace-based learning will be conducted within the specific rules applicable to the relevant industry.

 

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 07:33:07 AM »
Covid-19 alert level 2 details: What you need to know

Quote
Battles. Wars. Fighting talk. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today outlined what the next front looks like if we move to alert level 2.

The guiding principle remains to "play it safe". We may even be doing this in a two-step process. A level 2.5 if you will.

Remember, we aren't there yet - with a decision due on Monday.

Here's the basics, with much more to come over the next few days as more detail emerges (p.s., that's code for we can't answer everything right now).

What remains unchanged?
The basic public health measures. If you are even slightly sick, stay at home. If you have any symptoms - a runny nose or sore throat - stay at home and get a test. Wash those hands and clean surfaces regularly. Don't share your phone.

The border remains closed to all except Kiwis returning home. On arrival, they will spend 14 days in an isolation facility.

Keep your distance. Two metres remains the gold-standard for strangers but in your workplace or with people you know the prime minister says we can "live with less" because tracing can be done if needed.

Can I throw the doors open to my workplace?
Generally speaking, yes. Businesses can re-start for staff and customers but it's slightly different strokes for different folks. The Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment will be providing more advice in the coming days but here are some starters for 10s:

If you can work from home it's something to talk to your boss about. The PM was encouraging it where possible.
All businesses must observe the appropriate hygiene and distancing rules.
Retail outlets need to follow the example already set by supermarkets, with physical distancing and regular cleaning.
Hair-dressers and beauticians need to wear PPE.
Bars, cafes and restaurants, stick with me here as this is quite a lot, must work under the three Ss: People must be seated. You can only have as many people as you can safely seat. No one can have more than 100 - regardless of venue size. People must be separated - physical distance is a must. This and the seating makes it easier to trace people. Tables must have a dedicated server. So seat, separate, serve.
Contact tracing is also key. While the government is working on a nationwide technical fix for now businesses should be able to detail who has visited.
If there are queues outside venues these must also be managed with the suitable social distancing.
Those who don't follow the rules will be shut down.
Again, we will learn more from MBIE in the coming days.

What about other gatherings?
You won't be raging it up with hundreds of your best mates anytime soon. Indoor and outdoor gatherings are limited to a maximum of 100. It is the same for churches and other venues. Social distancing rules must be followed too.

Can we see some of our family and friends though?
Your bubble can grow. But hang on to the same principles mentioned above in reference to hospitality and the basic social distancing and health measures.

You can have friends and family to your home but keep the numbers small. More specific guidance is still coming.

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield said while he may hug a few close family members he wouldn't be going beyond that - stick to the East Coast wave.

Can I take a holiday elsewhere in NZ?
A trip from Wellington to Napier to see your mum is fine. A trip to Napier for a conference with an open bar is not. So, you can gad about the place a bit more. However, keep to the social distancing rules. It's key.

What about getting back to the gym and pool?
They, and other public facilities like playgrounds, will re-open as long as the right rules are followed (more to come here).

Professional sport can resume - rugby and netball will be doing so - but given the rules about mass gatherings it won't be with crowds. In some cases, you won't notice the difference from before!

Lower level sport is back on the cards but we can expect more information on that later.

Can I send my child back to school?
All education facilities, including early learning, will re-open. These will liaise directly with parents. Distance learning will remain in place too.

If an education facility has a confirmed case it will close for 72 hours to allow for tracing and then, potentially, another 14 days.

When a decision about level 2 is made, schools won't open mid-week but at the start of the following week.

Again, sick children should be kept at home and regular basic healthcare steps taken.

What happens to the more vulnerable groups?
Those in higher risk groups need to think about their own personal safety when outside and continue to apply social distancing and basic healthcare steps.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/416095/covid-19-alert-level-2-details-what-you-need-to-know

As at 9.00 am, 7 May 2020
    Total          Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand   1,139   1
Number of probable cases   350   0
Number of confirmed and probable cases   1,489   1
Number of cases currently in hospital   2   0
Number of recovered cases   1,332   16
Number of deaths   21   0
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

My thoughts.
I am proud to call NZ home. A modern liberal society at the fore front of freedom internationally  and successfully addressing the Covid 19 pandemic  with a well lead and well followed response to this crisis.






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