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Messages - ArcticMelt2

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1
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: February 08, 2020, 04:58:24 PM »
The maximum value at the station was +18.4С

https://corporatedispatch.com/antarctica-records-hottest-temperature-ever-18-3-18-4-degrees-celsius/

Quote
However the final maximum was reported to be 18.4°C. 18.3 was a provisional value at 15UTC.

That surpassed the previous record of 63.5 degrees Fahrenheit (17.5 Celsius) set on March 24, 2015 at the same location. Temperature records from Esperanza date back to 1961.


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 07, 2020, 04:48:20 PM »
"The coldest January on Kodiak is the forerunner of the big summer ice loss? Top 10 includes January 2007 and 2012."

I think there might be some truth to that. Alaska is cold during the winter and Europe/lower 48 US is warm when the polar vortex is well behaved and no "cold-spills" reach them. Due to this there is usually little snowcover in NH midlatitudes so when spring comes they should warm up fast. This could of course lead to a fast meltout of the periphery in the Arctic which - given good weather - would lead to fast ice loss especially as there is not much old ice nowadays.

There are many ifs though...but I think we have a good chance of seeing some "fireworks" during this summer in the Arctic

A similar picture throughout Alaska

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January 2020 was plenty cold in Alaska, but it did not crack the bottom ten for Alaska over the past 96 years. There is not a significant linear trend over that time, but there is a well defined "step" increase in the mid-1970s. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49


3
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 06, 2020, 09:00:14 PM »


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Fragments of wind turbine blades await burial at the Casper Regional Landfill in Wyoming.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turbine-blades-can-t-be-recycled-so-they-re-piling-up-in-landfills

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Wind Turbine Blades Can’t Be Recycled, So They’re Piling Up in Landfills
Companies are searching for ways to deal with the tens of thousands of blades that have reached the end of their lives.

A wind turbine’s blades can be longer than a Boeing 747 wing, so at the end of their lifespan they can’t just be hauled away. First, you need to saw through the lissome fiberglass using a diamond-encrusted industrial saw to create three pieces small enough to be strapped to a tractor-trailer.

The municipal landfill in Casper, Wyoming, is the final resting place of 870 blades whose days making renewable energy have come to end. The severed fragments look like bleached whale bones nestled against one another.

“That’s the end of it for this winter,” said waste technician Michael Bratvold, watching a bulldozer bury them forever in sand. “We’ll get the rest when the weather breaks this spring.”

Tens of thousands of aging blades are coming down from steel towers around the world and most have nowhere to go but landfills. In the U.S. alone, about 8,000 will be removed in each of the next four years. Europe, which has been dealing with the problem longer, has about 3,800 coming down annually through at least 2022, according to BloombergNEF. It’s going to get worse: Most were built more than a decade ago, when installations were less than a fifth of what they are now.

Built to withstand hurricane-force winds, the blades can’t easily be crushed, recycled or repurposed. That’s created an urgent search for alternatives in places that lack wide-open prairies. In the U.S., they go to the handful of landfills that accept them, in Lake Mills, Iowa; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; and Casper, where they will be interred in stacks that reach 30 feet under.

“The wind turbine blade will be there, ultimately, forever,” said Bob Cappadona, chief operating officer for the North American unit of Paris-based Veolia Environnement SA, which is searching for better ways to deal with the massive waste. “Most landfills are considered a dry tomb.”

“The last thing we want to do is create even more environmental challenges.”

To prevent catastrophic climate change caused by burning fossil fuels, many governments and corporations have pledged to use only clean energy by 2050. Wind energy is one of the cheapest ways to reach that goal.

The electricity comes from turbines that spin generators. Modern models emerged after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when shortages compelled western governments to find alternatives to fossil fuels. The first wind farm in the U.S. was installed in New Hampshire in 1980, and California deployed thousands of turbines east of San Francisco across the Altamont Pass.

The first models were expensive and inefficient, spinning fast and low. After 1992, when Congress passed a tax credit, manufacturers invested in taller and more powerful designs. Their steel tubes rose 260 feet and sported swooping fiberglass blades. A decade later, General Electric Co. made its 1.5 megawatt model—enough to supply 1,200 homes in a stiff breeze—an industry standard.

Wind power is carbon-free and about 85% of turbine components, including steel, copper wire, electronics and gearing can be recycled or reused. But the fiberglass blades remain difficult to dispose of. With some as long as a football field, big rigs can only carry one at a time, making transportation costs prohibitive for long-distance hauls. Scientists are trying to find better ways to separate resins from fibers or to give small chunks new life as pellets or boards.

In the European Union, which strictly regulates material that can go into landfills, some blades are burned in kilns that create cement or in power plants. But their energy content is weak and uneven and the burning fiberglass emits pollutants.

In a pilot project last year, Veolia tried grinding them to dust, looking for chemicals to extract. “We came up with some crazy ideas,” Cappadona said. “We want to make it a sustainable business. There’s a lot of interest in this.”

One start-up, Global Fiberglass Solutions, developed a method to break down blades and press them into pellets and fiber boards to be used for flooring and walls. The company started producing samples at a plant in Sweetwater, Texas, near the continent’s largest concentration of wind farms. It plans another operation in Iowa.

“We can process 99.9% of a blade and handle about 6,000 to 7,000 blades a year per plant,” said Chief Executive Officer Don Lilly. The company has accumulated an inventory of about one year’s worth of blades ready to be chopped up and recycled as demand increases, he said. “When we start to sell to more builders, we can take in a lot more of them. We’re just gearing up.”

Until then, municipal and commercial dumps will take most of the waste, which the American Wind Energy Association in Washington says is safest and cheapest.

“Wind turbine blades at the end of their operational life are landfill-safe, unlike the waste from some other energy sources, and represent a small fraction of overall U.S. municipal solid waste,” according to an emailed statement from the group. It pointed to an Electric Power Research Institute study that estimates all blade waste through 2050 would equal roughly .015% of all the municipal solid waste going to landfills in 2015 alone.

In Iowa, Waste Management Inc. “worked closely with renewable energy companies to come up with a solution for wind mill blade processing, recycling and disposal,” said Julie Ketchum, a spokeswoman. The largest U.S. trash hauler gets as many as 10 trucks per day at its Lake Mills landfill.

Back in Wyoming, in the shadow of a snow-capped mountain, lies Casper, where wind farms represent both the possibilities and pitfalls of the shift from fossil fuels. The boom-bust oil town was founded at the turn of the 19th century. On the south side, bars that double as liquor stores welcome cigarette smokers and day drinkers. Up a gentle northern slope, a shooting club boasts of cowboy-action pistol ranges. Down the road, the sprawling landfill bustles and a dozen wind turbines spin gently on the horizon. They tower over pumpjacks known as nodding donkeys that pull oil from wells.

“People around here don’t like change,” said Morgan Morsett, a bartender at Frosty’s Bar & Grill. “They see these wind turbines as something that’s hurting coal and oil.”

But the city gets $675,000 to house turbine blades indefinitely, which can help pay for playground improvements and other services. Landfill manager Cynthia Langston said the blades are much cleaner to store than discarded oil equipment and Casper is happy to take the thousand blades from three in-state wind farms owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s PacifiCorp. Warren Buffett’s utility has been replacing the original blades and turbines with larger, more powerful models after a decade of operation.

While acknowledging that burying blades in perpetuity isn’t ideal, Bratvold, the special waste technician, was surprised by some of the negative reactions when a photo of some early deliveries went viral last summer. On social media, posters derided the inability to recycle something advertised as good for the planet, and offered suggestions of reusing them as links in a border wall or roofing for a homeless shelter.

“The backlash was instant and uninformed,” Bratvold said. “Critics said they thought wind turbines were supposed to be good for the environment and how can it be sustainable if it ends up in a landfill?”

“I think we’re doing the right thing.”

In the meantime, Bratvold and his co-workers have set aside about a half dozen blades and in coming months, they’ll experiment with methods to squeeze them into smaller footprints. They’ve tried bunkers, berms and even crushing them with the bulldozer, but the tracks kept slipping off the smooth blades. There’s little time to waste. Spring is coming, and when it does, the inexorable march of blades will resume.

By Nishant Kumar

4
Science / Re: Water availability
« on: February 05, 2020, 04:06:09 PM »
The land will lose more and more water due to its progressive heating in comparison with the oceans.

https://twitter.com/zlabe
Quote
Temperatures over land have warmed approximately 2x as fast as ocean surface temperatures. The 2019 mean global temperature was about 1.2°C (2.2°F) above pre-industrial levels (1880-1920).


5
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: January 29, 2020, 05:20:48 AM »
It would be interesting to have the link to the paper(s) where they both came from.

The second map is a change from a certain baseline so you need to know the one they used.
The paper might also link to actual studies of those areas.

http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2016_full_report_low_res.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622814002793

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 25, 2020, 05:19:01 AM »
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/the-us-is-set-to-experience-yet-a-new-energy-revolution-offshore-wind/

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THE US IS SET TO EXPERIENCE YET A NEW ENERGY REVOLUTION: OFFSHORE WIND
SHARE
January 21, 2020

According to fresh research by Rystad Energy, installed offshore wind capacity in US waters could reach 20 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and annual investments in the sector could surpass $15 billion by the mid-2020s. Such a trajectory means capital expenditure in US offshore wind will likely exceed those in US offshore oil and gas within the next five years – a truly remarkable development.

“There are currently 6 GW of offshore wind projects in the US that have been sanctioned for development, requiring collective investments of more than $20 billion over the next five years. Assuming continued support from the regulators, many more projects will be sanctioned in the coming years and we expect to see yearly investments in the sector exceed $15 billion by the middle of the decade,” says Tim Bjerkelund, Head of Consulting New York at Rystad Energy. “That would certainly signal an energy revolution and offshore suppliers should take note.”

By comparison, Rystad Energy expects annual expenditure on US offshore oil and gas projects to average $14.8 billion between 2020 and 2025.

The US Northeast has for decades been dependent on importing energy, either from other states or from other countries. Renewable energy could offer a remedy but wind and solar projects are typically land-intensive, which poses problems in areas of high population density such as the US Northeast.

“This is reminiscent of problems faced by European countries, and the states in the Northeast have wisely picked up the same playbook. Benefiting from the technological developments and cost efficiencies introduced in the North Sea, these states are adopting the lessons learned and are rapidly rolling out targets for a much higher share of renewables in their power mix,” Bjerkelund says.

Projects such as Vineyard Wind are expected to see costs close to the levels of European projects. This bodes well for an industry that is still in its infancy. According to the Energy Information Administration, the potential for offshore wind in the US is 7200 TWh. If all of this were to be realized, it would equal hundreds of projects similar to the ones already sanctioned, with each requiring investments of around $3 billion on average.

“The emergence of offshore wind as an industry in the US is truly exciting. The energy transition is taking place now – not through small test projects, but through utility scale projects that each require billions of dollars in investment. US suppliers should take note – this new industry could outgrow offshore oil and gas in only a few years’ time, providing lots of new opportunities,” Bjerkelund concludes.


7
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 25, 2020, 04:52:02 AM »
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/global-oil-and-gas-discoveries-reach-four-year-high-in-2019/

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GLOBAL OIL AND GAS DISCOVERIES REACH FOUR-YEAR HIGH IN 2019, BOOSTED BY EXXONMOBIL’S GUYANA SUCCESS

January 9, 2020

The world’s oil and gas explorers powered ahead and discovered 12.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019, the highest volume since 2015, according to estimates from Rystad Energy. Last year recorded 26 discoveries of more than 100 million boe, with offshore regions dominating the list of new oil and gas deposits.



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Guyana’s success story from 2018 continued in 2019, with ExxonMobil adding four new discoveries within its offshore Stabroek block, while Tullow Oil’s Jethro and Joe exploration wells established the presence of a working petroleum system to the west of the Stabroek block. Rystad Energy estimates that the discoveries in Guyana hold cumulative recoverable resources of around 1.8 billion boe.

“ExxonMobil can be declared explorer of the year for a second year in a row thanks to its ongoing efforts and results in Guyana, along with significant investments in Cyprus. The supermajor was exceptional, both in terms of discovered volumes and value creation from exploration,” says Palzor Shenga, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team.

The US company discovered around 1.07 billion boe in additional net resources last year. Rystad Energy estimates the value creation from these volumes to be around $2.7 billion, largely driven by the continued success in Guyana.

Off the coast of Mauritania, BP’s Orca gas field was not only the largest single discovery, but also the deepest-water find of 2019, estimated by Rystad Energy to hold about 1.3 billion boe of recoverable resources. Recent gas discoveries in the region now support plans to build an additional LNG hub in the Bir Allah area in Mauritania.

In Russia, Gazprom announced two discoveries in the Kara Sea, Dinkov in the Rusanovsky block and Nyarmeyskoye in the Nyarmeysky block. Rystad Energy estimates Gazprom’s 2019 discoveries to hold combined recoverable resources of around 1.5 billion boe, with Dinkov ranked as the second-largest find in 2019 world-wide.

Other key offshore discoveries in 2019 include Total’s Brulpadda in South Africa, ExxonMobil’s Glaucus in Cyprus, CNOOC’s Glengorm in the United Kingdom and Equinor’s Sputnik in the Norwegian sector of the Barents Sea.

Even so, many of 2019’s high-impact wells turned out to be duds, Shenga noted. “Although the discovered volumes for 2019 surpassed the preceding year, it was a disappointing year for high-profile wells as many prospects with significant estimated pre-drill resources failed to deliver. Over 10 billion barrels of estimated pre-drill volumes were at stake in wells that failed to encounter hydrocarbons.”



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US independent Hess and Chinese state player CNOOC occupy the second and the third spots on the list of top explorers of 2019 in terms of value creation from new discoveries, with both benefiting from their partnership with ExxonMobil in Guyana’s Stabroek block. Hess added about $2 billion in value from new discoveries last year, while CNOOC had value creation of about $1.8 billion.

French major Total took fourth place, with about $873 million in value creation from its 2019 exploration activities. “Total’s value creation from exploration in 2019 was largely driven by the play-opening success with the Brulpadda find in South Africa,” says Shenga.

In 2020, Rystad Energy expects the global discovered volumes to continue the rising trend of recent years, with the list of upcoming wildcats including several high-impact wells along with some promising probes delayed from 2019.

8
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 19, 2020, 05:07:19 PM »
As I understand it, a multi-meter rise in the ocean is expected no earlier than 2100. By this time, civilization will be able to zero out emissions of carbon dioxide and methane, and even bind all the carbon emitted. I think that by 2100 we will be able to return the planet to a pre-industrial state at the end of the 18th century. That is, we will partially restore the ecological balance that existed on the planet before the advent of Homo sapiens.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 18, 2020, 08:23:07 PM »
Recently, a second similar floating wind farm has begun work. With more powerful turbines.

https://www.4coffshore.com/news/third-windfloat-atlantic-turbine-prepped-for-deployment-nid16664.html

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10/01/2020

Global Wind Service and MHI Vestas have installed the last of the three turbines on the WindFloat Atlantic project. Two units have been towed out to their final position, approximately 20 km off the coast of Portugal at Viana do Castelo.

The three V164-8.4 MW turbine project uses Principles Power’s WindFloat, a semi-submersible foundation technology. The platform measures 30 metres in height, with a 50 metre distance between each column. Operations to assemble the turbines were conducted from quayside in Ferrol, in the northern part of Spain.

The floating technology was implemented in a first of its kind prototype, WindFloat 1, near Póvoa do Varzim, which was installed back in 2011. The project was a full life cycle demonstration featuring a Vestas V-80 2 MW turbine, and was decommissioned last year.

A commercial phase of approximately 30 turbines producing 150 MW is planned to follow the 25 MW project. The WindFloat foundation is also due to be deployed on the Golfe du Lion project in the Mediterranean. Project developers anticipate reaching consent this summer, with commercial operations starting in 2021.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 17, 2020, 10:17:59 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/work-starts-on-huge-wind-farm-that-could-power-4point5-million-homes.html

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Work starts on world’s ‘largest offshore wind farm’ that could power 4.5 million homes

Dogger Bank Wind Farms will be made up of three 1.2 gigawatt offshore sites.
The construction work is being carried out by a firm headquartered in North Wales.

Construction work for a huge offshore wind farm in the North Sea is underway.

In an announcement Friday, energy firm SSE said that onshore work for the 3.6 gigawatt (GW) Dogger Bank Wind Farms project had begun near Ulrome, a coastal village in the East Riding of Yorkshire, England.

Dogger Bank Wind Farms – which SSE described as “the world’s largest offshore wind farm” – will be made up of three 1.2 GW offshore sites: Creyke Beck A, Creyke Beck B and Teesside A. The project is a joint venture between SSE Renewables and Norwegian energy major Equinor.

The construction work is being carried out by Jones Bros Civil Engineering U.K., a firm headquartered in North Wales.

The scheme is set to use GE’s Haliade-X wind turbine, which has a 12 megawatt generator and stands 260 meters tall. According to SSE, the project will have the capability to produce enough renewable energy for more than 4.5 million homes per year.

“Getting the first spade in the ground is a significant milestone on any project, but for what will be the world’s largest offshore wind farm, this is a major moment for a project that has already been over a decade in the making,” Steve Wilson, who is managing director of Dogger Bank Wind Farms, said in a statement.

The U.K. is a major player in the offshore wind sector. It is home to projects such as the 659 megawatt Walney Extension facility, in the Irish Sea, which was officially opened in 2018.

The scale of that project is considerable: it is capable of powering more than 590,000 homes, has 87 turbines and covers an area of around 20,000 soccer pitches, according to Danish energy company Orsted.

Europe as a whole is home to a significant offshore wind sector. According to industry body WindEurope, 409 wind turbines were connected to the grid in 2018. The average size of offshore turbines in 2018 was 6.8 MW, which represents a 15% rise compared to 2017.


https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/offshore-wind/haliade-x-offshore-turbine

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Haliade-X 12 MW offshore wind turbine platform



Introducing Haliade-X 12 MW, the most powerful offshore wind turbine in the world.  GE is investing to develop the Haliade-X, the industry’s first 12 MW offshore wind turbine. In addition to being the most powerful wind turbine in the world, the Haliade-X is also the most efficient ocean-based wind platform, with a leading capacity factor of 63%. GE’s investment in the Haliade-X will help make offshore wind a more cost-effective and competitive source of clean energy.

ENGINEERED FOR PERFORMANCE
Key features from the Haliade-X 12 MW offshore wind turbine
The Haliade-X offshore turbine features a 12 MW capacity, 220-meter rotor, a 107-meter blade, and digital capabilities.

The Haliade-X 12 MW is not only the most powerful wind turbine in the world but also features a 63% capacity factor—five to seven points above industry standard. Capacity factor compares how much energy was generated against the maximum that could have been produced at continuous full power operation during a specific period of time. Each incremental point in capacity factor represents around $7 million in revenue for our customers over the life of a windfarm.

Power meets efficiency
Bottom line impact
Digital tools   
Power meets efficiency
The combination of a bigger rotor, longer blades and higher capacity factor makes Haliade-X less sensitive to wind speed variations, increasing predictability and the ability to generate more power at low wind speeds. The Haliade-X can capture more Annual Energy Production (AEP) than any other offshore wind turbine even at low wind conditions.

One Haliade-X 12 MW turbine can generate up to 67 GWh* of gross annual energy production, providing enough clean energy to power 16,000* European households and save up to 42,000 metric tons of CO2, which is the equivalent of the emissions generated by 9,000 vehicles* in one year.

*According to wind conditions on a typical German North Sea site.




11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 02, 2020, 10:37:32 AM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Standardized anomalies of annual regional #Arctic sea ice extent - now updated through 2019. New record low this year for the Chukchi Sea.

[Data from @NSIDC; Bright blue = maximum year, bright red = minimum year, vertical lines = 2007/2012/2016/2019]



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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The Bering Sea average ice extent for December was second lowest in the 42-year from @NSIDC passive microwave data, only 41% of 1981-2010 average. Good weather now for ice growth but late start sure to reduce thickness. #akwx #Arctic #seaice @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @KYUKNews


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 02, 2020, 08:04:57 AM »
Jaxa data:

The average annual extent in 2019 in the Arctic is 2nd. Antarctica is also 2nd place.

Global extent - first place.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 31, 2019, 07:30:55 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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Alaska 2019 climate review starts at the top: Utqiaġvik had by far the warmest year in the past 99 years, more the 11F (6C) above the pre-1980 average. Think about that. Eight of the 10 warmest years in #2010s. Why? Collapse of #seaice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ajatnuvuk


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:50:32 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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Colder weather has allowed for significant #seaice growth in the Bering Sea. But…ice extent far below long-term average in @NSIDC data, at 3rd lowest of record for the date. Weather pattern looks good for continued ice growth at least another week. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49


15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 24, 2019, 07:25:16 AM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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Chukchi Sea #seaice extent up to ~96% of the basin in  @NSIDC data. This makes Dec 22 the third latest for first date in the autumn for extent to reach ≥95%. The trend is extreme: ice-over is now typically four weeks later than ~1990. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @YJRosen


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 18, 2019, 05:54:24 PM »
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?

Just now there is a lot of news on the Internet about a very warm winter in Europe. Everywhere they write that last similar winter was in 2006-2007. Therefore, the correlation with the minima of the Arctic ice suggests itself.

I also came across studies about the possible connection of strong Arctic minima with El Nino and minima of solar activity (in 2007 there was a minimum of solar activity, in 2012, the maximum was the opposite).

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2019, 05:52:46 PM »
It doesn't really look like the situation in Europe will be changing any time soon either.

Personally im not convinced that there are enough residuals to draw a correlation between European snow cover and Arctic ice. You may be onto something though- so why not try?

Last year I plotted UK June rainfall against September minimum and nearly got a significant correlation.

Since the Earth has a common atmosphere, the most significant weather events in different parts should correlate. There is nothing fantastic here.


More importantly however it DOES look like the Chukchi is finally going to get cold.

But the Pacific side is continuing to be weakened.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

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Bering Sea #seaice extent is 2nd lowest for this point in the season in @NSIDC daily data, even less than the past two years (only 2007 lower). Weather the next week looks to be conducive to some but not dramatic ice growth. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @arctic_today @YJRosen


18
Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond
« on: December 15, 2019, 08:30:10 PM »
mostly true except one point, they are not disconnected or blind, they are

COWARDS

because as is rarely mentioned, the risk to not be re-elected, as a person but also as a party, is extremely high for those protagonists who first jump into the cold water as we say.

There are many enough example what happens to politicians, parties, masses of jobs in parliaments and otherwise connected to political business, if one of them finally DARES to to the right thing.

They are ousted or worse.

Look what happens in France after only moderate amendments were announced.

It's on purpose that i won't name more examples to avoid the discussion that would cause, because of course not all of you would consider the same thing as the right thing to do as i do ;) ;) )

There is another reason.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/10/tony-abbott-says-climate-change-is-probably-doing-good

Quote
Tony Abbott says climate change is 'probably doing good'

Former Australian PM delivers speech in London comparing global warming action to ‘killing goats to appease volcano gods’

Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott has suggested climate change is “probably doing good” in a speech in London in which he likened policies to combat it to “primitive people once killing goats to appease the volcano gods” .

Abbott delivered the annual lecture to the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), a climate sceptic thinktank on Monday evening. The Guardian and several other media outlets were blocked from attending the event but a copy of the speech was later circulated.

Abbott told the group the ostracisation of those who did not accept climate science was “the spirit of the Inquisition, the thought-police down the ages”. He also reprised his 2009 assertion that the “so-called settled science of climate change” was “absolute crap”.

Measures to deal with climate change, which Abbott said would damage the economy, were likened to “primitive people once killing goats to appease the volcano gods”.

“At least so far,” he said, “it’s climate change policy that’s doing harm. Climate change itself is probably doing good; or at least, more good than harm.”

“There’s the evidence that higher concentrations of carbon dioxide – which is a plant food after all – are actually greening the planet and helping to lift agricultural yields. In most countries, far more people die in cold snaps than in heatwaves, so a gradual lift in global temperatures, especially if it’s accompanied by more prosperity and more capacity to adapt to change, might even be beneficial.”

When he was prime minister, Abbott said he took the issue of climate change “very seriously”. But since he was deposed as prime minister by his Liberal party colleague and bête noire Malcolm Turnbull in 2015, Abbott has returned to many hardline views he had tempered as leader.

He told the GWPF Australia needed “evidence-based policy rather than policy-based evidence” and took aim at a 2013 study that showed that 97% of scientists agree humans are driving climate change, “as if scientific truth is determined by votes rather than facts”.

Climate change and energy policy has been a divisive issue in Australia for more than a decade, with Abbott consistently at the centre of the division. From the backbench, Abbott has pushed the Turnbull government to reject policies that would favour renewable energy.

In his speech, Abbott blamed Turnbull’s failure to campaign on energy prices during 2016 for the narrowing of the government’s majority at that year’s election.

“After a net gain of 25 seats at the previous two elections, when we had campaigned on power prices, we had a net loss of 14 when we didn’t. And subsequent events have made the politics of power once more the central battleground between and within the two main parties,” Abbott said.

On Monday the federal energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, indicated the government did not intend to follow its chief scientist’s recommendation that it should implement a clean energy target. Abbott welcomed that news in London, calling it “belated”.

“Even if reducing emissions really is necessary to save the planet, our effort, however Herculean, is barely better than futile; because Australia’s total annual emissions are exceeded by just the annual increase in China’s,” Abbott said.

Recent research from the Australia Institute found the country was the only wealthy nation still breaking energy emissions records.

The GWPF is chaired by Nigel Lawson, who served as Margaret Thatcher’s treasurer. Lawson has been an outspoken critic of climate science and recently incorrectly told the BBC the global temperature had slightly declined in the past decade. The BBC was heavily criticised for leaving his assertions unchallenged.

John Hewson, who led the Liberal party from 1990 to 1994, said Abbott’s speech to Lawson’s group “sees him in like-minded, if disturbingly deluded, company”.

“Tony Abbott has had a long history of playing short-term politics, for his own political benefit, with the existential threat posed by a rapidly changing climate,” Hewson said.

“Abbott was effective in opposition – a man of nope rather than hope. His basic thrust is that if you can’t understand it, don’t believe it, or accept it. When it comes to climate, and the magnitude and urgency of the challenge, Abbott is prepared to deny the undeniable, and to ignore the risks and costs if left to future generations. History will undoubtedly judge Abbott and Howard and their small band of deniers harshly. When they could have acted on climate and emissions they failed as leaders, miserably.”

 A clean energy target is not 'unconscionable', Tony Abbott. Wrecking climate policy is Abbott’s speech – titled Daring to Doubt – contained echoes of his mentor and prime ministerial predecessor John Howard, who gave the same annual lecture to the GWPF four years ago. In 2013 Howard said climate “zealots” had turned the issue into a “substitute religion”.

Abbott, who trained to be a Catholic priest, called climate change a “post-Christian theology” and said the decline of religion in society had left a hole in which other forms of “dogma” could take root.

A Lancet study in 2015 supports Abbott’s claim that more people die from cold weather than hot. But the World Health Organisation has found that by 2050, climate change will cause 250,000 extra people to die each year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress.

Abbott went on to deny many of the central findings of the UN’s climate science body and claimed, without providing evidence, that climate records had been “adjusted” and data sets “slanted”.

“Contrary to the breathless assertions that climate change is behind every weather event, in Australia, the floods are not bigger, the bushfires are not worse, the droughts are not deeper or longer, and the cyclones are not more severe than they were in the 1800s,” Abbott said. “Sometimes, they do more damage but that’s because there’s more to destroy, not because their intensity has increased.

“More than 100 years of photography at Manly beach in my electorate does not suggest that sea levels have risen despite frequent reports from climate alarmists that this is imminent.”

Scientists often refrain from linking single weather events to climate change, saying only that they fit with what they expect to see more of because of climate change.

But as the Earth warms and scientist better understand climate change, weather extremes have been shown to have been made more likely due to greenhouse gas pollution. In Australia, the record hot winter just passed was made 60 times more likely by climate change. Researchers have also linked warming sea temperatures to the catastrophic rainfall and flooding that killed 35 people in Australia in 2011.

Sea level rise is one of the least controversial aspects of climate science. It is progressing at 3.4mm per year globally, according to the Australian government’s Ozcoasts website. Perhaps not enough to appear in photographs against other variables, such as daily tides, but over time scientists agree this will cause problems with coastal housing and infrastructure.

The Guardian asked repeatedly for an invitation to attend the event. Abbott’s spokesperson said the speech was “not considered a media event”. The Guardian understands the Times of London was invited to attend and excerpts of the speech were distributed to News Corp newspapers in Australia.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 15, 2019, 07:30:45 PM »
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Recent weather conditions have pushed the extent of #Arctic sea ice in the Bering-Chukchi Seas back to the 2nd lowest on record. Data from @NSIDC.

The record low sea ice cover this year has directly impacted many Alaskan coastal communities.


20
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: December 14, 2019, 04:30:43 PM »
Antarctica’s Delicate Face

Quote
A new map reveals the landforms hidden beneath the ice in unprecedented detail. This will support more accurate forecasts concerning the future of the glaciers and sea-level rise.

Link >> https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/antarcticas-delicate-face.html

Cool. For a whole kilometer, the last record was improved.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremes_on_Earth

Quote
Deepest ice
Ice sheets on land, but having the base below sea level. Places under ice are not considered to be on land.

Bentley Subglacial Trench   −2,555 m (−8,383 ft)   Antarctica
Trough beneath Jakobshavn Isbræ   −1,512 m (−4,961 ft)[41]   Greenland, Denmark

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Icesat 2 data now available
« on: December 14, 2019, 10:20:57 AM »
Quote
Heavy snowfall in Antarctica can make it difficult to determine freeboard bc you have to determine how deep the radar is penetrating



Quote
They’re showing different things for #seaice floe lengths, maybe because they are detecting refrozen leads in different ways


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Icesat 2 data now available
« on: December 14, 2019, 10:19:07 AM »


Quote
For small melt ponds, hard to get a depth measurement, you still find them though! Because they saturate the signal



Quote
.@NASA_ICESat2 is also doing an awesome job finding (big) melt ponds, including their depth!


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Icesat 2 data now available
« on: December 14, 2019, 06:30:04 AM »

24
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 07, 2019, 06:02:34 AM »
I was referring to reply #2133 above.

I wrote because the estimate of cooling due to aerosols at 2 degrees is not confirmed by the official figures. After 2005, SO2 emissions decreased by 2 times, and the global temperature has increased by about 0.2 degrees Celsius since then.

You cannot use global temperatures like that.
They are composed of many inputs so they do not tell you anything about the SO2 unless you know all the other stuff but we don´t.

PS: Tom i went to see what he said about the 1,9 but it is just in a graph. And probably it is just some total which is not valid for the period. I have no data to back that up but the text above the graph states: many doubt that there will be any life left on Earth by 2026.

You should be able to recognize that people that write drivel like that do not help and probably not produce the best graphs.

Some of the local effects the pollution has:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tug-of-war-between-air-pollution-and-co2-masks-warmings-impacts/

Can be compared with other important climate indicators:

CO2 from 380 to 410 ppm +7%
CH4 from 1770 to 1870 ppb +5%
N2O from 319 to 332 ppb +4%
SF6 from 5.5 to 10 ppt +45%
global sea ice extent from 22 to 21 million km2 -5%

Of these figures, comparable changes with SO2 occur only with another sulfur compound (SF6 or Sulfur Hexaflouride). Only it, on the contrary, heats, not cools (the strongest known greenhouse gas is 24 900 times stronger than carbon dioxide). In general, it seems that sulfur compounds continue to play a crucial role in climate measurements, which is not surprising. After each strong eruption of the volcano, there was always a strong short-term cooling.

25
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 05, 2019, 07:45:12 PM »
Quote
Global mean sea surface temperature anomalies so far this year  ---> 2nd warmest on record (after 2016)

[Data from @NOAA ERSSTv5 averaged over January to November]



https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1202627021941010432

26
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 03, 2019, 09:57:01 PM »
If you correct for ENSO, 2019 could finish above 2016 but actual anomalies that's not going to happen.

Here's the running 10-month for BEST which includes October 2019.  Look how much lower this year is compared to the peak in 2016.  Even if November & December 2019 beat 2016 it still wouldn't be enough.

On other data indeed gap more. But second place is almost guaranteed.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1201613435097600000

Quote
The Jan-Nov period was the 2nd warmest on record (see map). The Contiguous U.S. (Lower 48) is in the coolest 1/3 of all years.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 01, 2019, 09:46:15 PM »
Quote
The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de




Quote
Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic




https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

28
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: November 30, 2019, 08:47:30 AM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-environment-dicaprio/brazils-president-accuses-actor-dicaprio-of-financing-amazon-fires-offers-no-evidence-idUSKBN1Y32HD
Quote
Brazil's president accuses actor DiCaprio of financing Amazon fires, offers no evidence

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro claimed on Friday that Hollywood star Leonardo DiCaprio financed fires being set in the Amazon rainforest, without presenting any evidence, the right-wing leader’s latest broadside in casting blame over forest fires that have generated international concern.

Bolsonaro appeared to be commenting on social media postings claiming that the environmental organization the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) had paid for images taken by volunteer firefighters that it then supposedly used to solicit donations, including a $500,000 contribution from DiCaprio.

The WWF has denied receiving a donation from DiCaprio or obtaining photos from the firefighters.

“This Leonardo DiCaprio is a cool guy, right? Giving money to torch the Amazon,” Bolsonaro said on Friday during brief remarks in front of the presidential residence.

DiCaprio denied having donated to the WWF. In a statement, the actor lauded “the people of Brazil working to save their natural and cultural heritage.” But, he said, “While worthy of support, we did not fund the organizations targeted.”

DiCaprio has been an outspoken advocate on behalf of combating climate change, speaking frequently about environmental issues including the Amazon forest fires. His Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, which is focused on projects that “protect vulnerable wildlife from extinction,” is part of the Earth Alliance.

Four members of the nongovernmental organization Alter do Chão Fire Brigade were arrested on Tuesday with police accusing them of purposefully setting fires in order to document them and drum up more donations. They were released on Thursday on a judge’s order.

Politicians and other NGOs fiercely criticized the arrest, saying it was part of a concerted attempt by Bolsonaro’s government to harass environmental groups.

Scientists and activists blame land speculators, farmers and ranchers for setting the fires to clear land for agricultural use, saying that deforesters are being emboldened by Bolsonaro’s rhetoric of promoting development and farming over preservation.

The Amazon rainforest is considered a bulwark against global climate change.

Bolsonaro has repeatedly lashed out at various factions in casting blame for the forest fires.

In a Facebook live post on Aug. 21, he said, “Everything indicates” that NGOs were going to the Amazon to “set fire” to the forest. When asked then if he had evidence to back up his claims, Bolsonaro said he had “no written plan,” adding, “that’s not how it’s done.”

One day later he admitted that farmers could be illegally setting the rainforest ablaze, but roughly a month later he attacked the “lying media” for saying that the rainforest was being devastated by the fires.

Bolsonaro talked about DiCaprio on Thursday during a live webcast. The president said the WWF paid the firefighting NGO to take pictures of forest fires in the Amazon.

“So what did the NGO do? What is the easiest thing? Set fire to the forest. Take pictures, make a video,” the president said. “(WWF) makes a campaign against Brazil, it contacts Leonardo DiCaprio, he donates $500,000.”

“A part of that went to the people that were setting fires. Leonardo DiCaprio, you are contributing to the fire in the Amazon, that won’t do,” Bolsonaro said.

29
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 29, 2019, 06:28:08 PM »
ENSO index remains in neutral phase:



But this year is already competing with 2016 for the title of warmest.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0.58 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0.54 С to norm 1981-2010 years


The planet is entering a new phase of accelerating warming

The difference between 2016 and 2019 on today decreased to 0.007 degrees Celsius.

A month ago it was 0.04 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,576 С to norm 1981-2010 years

2019 could be a record warm year despite the neutral phase of Pacific oscillation.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 17, 2019, 08:13:56 PM »
Quote
The northern Chukchi Sea is finally starting to freeze, but #seaice extent from @NSIDC remains by far the lowest of record this late in the season. Ice also forming near land on the Alaska side of Bering Sea but extent is half of average.



https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 09:01:42 PM »
No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

This means further heat accumulation in the most vulnerable place in the Arctic - the Beaufort cycle.

Previous article about this:

https://www.sciencealert.com/ticking-time-bomb-hidden-heated-ocean-water-under-arctic-canada-basin-chukchi-sea

Quote
'Ticking Time Bomb' of Heated Ocean Discovered Hidden Under The Arctic

PETER DOCKRILL30 AUG 2018




The Arctic is not in a good way. Its oldest, thickest sea ice is breaking. Strange lakes punctuate its landscape. The very chemistry of its water is changing.

Things could be about to get worse. New research has uncovered evidence of a vast reservoir of heated water building up underneath the Arctic Ocean and penetrating deep into the heart of the polar region, where it threatens to melt the ice frozen on top. And maybe a lot of it.

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," explains oceanographer Mary-Louise Timmermans from Yale University.

Timmermans and her team analysed temperature data on the Canada Basin taken over the last 30 years, and found that the amount of heat in the warmest part of the water had effectively doubled in the period 1987 to 2017.

The basin, which sits to the north of Alaska, is made up of mixed layers of ocean water, with cold, fresh water flowing at the surface, sitting on top of a body of warmer, saltier ocean trapped beneath it.

That dynamic has long been the case, but it's the rapidly heating conditions of the warmer reservoir below that has scientists concerned.

"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer," Timmermans says.

"Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

According to the researchers, the warmer submerged waters have been 'archiving' heat due to "anomalous solar heating" of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, which feeds the Canada Basin.

Basically, as sea ice seasonally and increasingly melts in the Chukchi Sea, open water gets exposed to the heat of sunlight, warms up, and is then driven northwards by Arctic winds – a current phenomenon called the Beaufort Gyre.

As this heated water travels to the Arctic, the warmer waters then descend below the colder layer of the Canadian Basin – but the amount they've heated up in the past three decades could represent "a ticking time bomb", the researchers warn.

"That heat isn't going to go away," one of the team, oceanographer John Toole from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, told CBC.

"Eventually … it's going have to come up to the surface and it's going to impact the ice."

While the researchers don't think there's any immediate threat, strong winds mixing the colder and warmer water layers – or an increase in salinity, driving the warmer water upwards – could severely impact Arctic ice.

And even if those outcomes don't result, the temperature trajectory already seen could be affecting ice coverage more subtly, although nobody knows the exact ramifications yet.


"It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics," the authors explain in their paper, although they note in the coming years the excess heat "will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth."

More research is needed to calculate just how serious this situation is, but there's no denying these mechanisms are all part of a much bigger problem – and one that isn't going away.

"We're seeing more and more open water as the sea ice retreats in the summertime," Timmermans told the Canadian Press.

"The Sun is warming up the ocean directly, because it's no longer covered by sea ice."

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 07:04:25 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


33
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 06, 2019, 06:48:15 PM »
https://www.noaa.gov/news/october-2019-was-coolest-in-10-years-as-us-continued-its-wettest-year-to-date

Quote
October 2019 was coolest in 10 years as U.S. continued its wettest year to date


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:17:56 PM »
How much Bering ice will form?

How weak and thin will the Chukchi ice be?

How much will this lack of buffer effect early melt?


I think this next year may see severe anomalies and its effects may penetrate into the central arctic.

Everything is very bad. The Pacific side continues to overheat, the Beaufort circle is pumped with heat.

Even with a neutral ENSO index, we have almost a record for ocean temperature:


35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 04, 2019, 06:46:53 PM »
Wow  :P


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 02, 2019, 06:49:23 AM »
Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

The chances of a new annual record are growing. 3 monthly records have already been set (2016 - 4, 2018 - 2, 2012 - 2, 2017 - 2).

https://twitter.com/zlabe
Quote
Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979)
--------------
2018 : January
2018 : February
2017 : March
2019 : April
2016 : May
2016 : June
2019 : July
2012 : August
2012 : September
2019 : October
2016 : November
2016 : December

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2019, 09:38:50 PM »
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

It's about 5 degrees warmer than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn70026_1yr.gif

See the map in the lower left corner (pink area):

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/RecentT.pdf

38
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 01, 2019, 07:57:19 PM »
Apologies for the duplicate post, I'm reposting this here (from the stupid questions thread) as I think it's a more appropriate thread.

I'm looking for recent methane concentration data from the Tiksi weather station, but the most recent data I can find on the NOAA website is over a year old.

Is the station still operational? Is NOAA still collecting this data? Or am I just being impatient?

But there's data from Barrow. This year is really different unprecedented methane emissions in the Arctic for all time observations (after 1984).

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts

39
Quote
Faced with a choice between suffering certain lower living standards today or dealing with speculative climate change in the distant future, people wisely choose the latter.

First it is not wise because of the precautionary principle.
Second the writer is a nasty denier to call climate change "speculative".

From earlier in the text above:
Quote
Unlike speculative climate change woes that never seem to materialize

This text is dripping with denier-bullshit.
www.threepochtimes.com is not a good source of information it seems.


I agree with you. But, in the text there is an interesting point about the UN climate conference, which poor countries refuse to accept (refused Poland, Brazil and Chile, agreed to accept only in Germany). Does this suggest that there is a growing rejection of the importance of climate change? This may mean that people do not want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

40
I read in the news that in recent times in Chile, events similar to France and the United States. As you know, there was a riot of yellow vests in France because of high gas prices. In the USA it was even more unusual - the denier of global warming - billionaire Trump came to power.

As for Chile, they write that the reason for the riots in expensive electricity is due to the green policy of the government. How true is that?

<snip, no links to websites that are so idiotic that they still deny the existence of AGW, most climate risk deniers have started to move beyond that idiocy in the past 5 years, and confine themselves to denying climate change has potential risks; N.>

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2019, 02:35:54 PM »
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.



Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?


42
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: October 29, 2019, 05:28:48 PM »
Yeah, very cool indeed. It's from NASA Worldview, Kevin.

It's amazing what you can see via satellite. We found the Oden via Sentinel. JayW recently spotted the Polarstern lights via RAMMB-SLIDER with the JPSS satellite.

Link >> https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-354648.7354030085,-835142.1726658549,-162769.01034700847,-728372.445177855&p=arctic&t=2019-10-28-T20%3A00%3A00Z&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Reference_Labels,Graticule(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Thermal_Anomalies_375m_Day(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Day(hidden),AMSRU2_Sea_Ice_Brightness_Temp_89H(hidden),AMSRU2_Sea_Ice_Brightness_Temp_89V(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC,MODIS_Terra_Sea_Ice(hidden),Coastlines(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Sea_Ice(hidden),AMSRU2_Sea_Ice_Concentration_12km(hidden),MODIS_Terra_Ice_Surface_Temp_Day(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_Ice_Surface_Temp_Day(hidden),SSMIS_Sea_Ice_Concentration(hidden),SSMIS_Sea_Ice_Concentration_Snow_Extent(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Day(hidden)

On your exiled in sight very many other polar stations - Eureka, Nord, on Svabland and many others. An excellent illustration of the fact that the Arctic is becoming more crowded even during the polar night.

Greedy multinational corporations are trying to overtake each other in the desire to stake out their right to extract huge amounts of minerals in the Arctic.

43
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:24:26 PM »
The graph confirms the data that the last winter is not very snowy (record little snow over the entire observation period).

44
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 21, 2019, 02:19:51 PM »
The first data from new satellites

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7481

Quote
The mission also measures mass changes in the thick ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. The May 2019 GRACE-FO map of Greenland shows that most of the island continued its long-term trend of ice mass loss. GRACE-FO data from June 2018 through early 2019 (see black-and-white graph) indicate a recent slowdown in Greenland ice loss that has also been observed in data from NASA's Oceans Melting Greenland airborne campaign. This slowdown has been attributed to cooler ocean waters around Greenland for the last few years.

The GRACE-FO science team is now looking at June 2019 data to assess how the unusually warm weather and rapid ice loss this summer will affect that trend. Greenland's significant ice melt in June and July this year was similar to the strong melting that occurred in the summer of 2012 and led to significant ice loss.


45
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 10:53:03 AM »
There is less and less time for salvation from a global catastrophe in space shelters.

At the top of Greenland, a new melting event happened.

This means that now the frequency of thawing events there has grown to once every 7 years.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

Quote
At summit: The highest temperatures in the past 12 years

The NOAA 2-meter air temperature data from Summit Station on the July 30, 2019 was at or above freezing for more than 11 hours, a record in the last 12 years, which has seen a period of increased temperatures overall. Furthermore, this melting event on July 30 also sets the record for the preceding century. Prior to 2012, melt layers at summit have been absent since 1889, and only appear again 680 years earlier.

Only two other melt events occurred here in the last 12 years, both shorter: On July 11, 2012 melting lasted for about 6.5 hours and on July 31, 2019 for more than five hours. The highest 1-hour average of above-freezing temperatures were set in 2012 at 0.79 degrees Celsius (33.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and in 2019 at 0.92 degrees Celsius (33.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Cooling on the evening of July 30 to 31 was minimal, to approximately -2.5 degrees Celsius (27.5 degrees Fahrenheit), and an unprecedented second day of above-freezing maximum temperatures occurred on July 31, 2019, when temperatures were above freezing for more than five hours and reached a maximum of 1.1 degrees Celsius (34.0 degrees Fahrenheit).

For comparison, in the past 10 thousand years, such events did not occur more often than once every 25 years.

https://climatechange.umaine.edu/gisp2/data/alley1.html

The unprecedented nature of the current disaster in Greenland can be displayed on the graph:

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 17, 2019, 03:47:53 AM »
https://twitter.com/seaice_de

Quote
#Arctic sea ice is now similar to the year 2012 in terms of total area and extent.
However, the regional pattern is different: the Chuckchi, parts of East Siberian, and Laptev Sea are rapidly melting while there is more ice left in the Barents Sea, Beaufort Sea, and Hudson Bay.


47
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 16, 2019, 04:49:43 AM »
http://www.fao.org/3/ca5249en/ca5249en.pdf

Quote
After decades of steady decline, the trend in world hunger – as measured by the prevalence of undernourishment – reverted in 2015, remaining virtually unchanged in the past three years at a level slightly below 11 percent. Meanwhile, the number of people who suffer from hunger has slowly increased. As a result, more than 820 million people in the world were still hungry in 2018, underscoring the immense challenge of achieving the Zero Hunger target by 2030.

Hunger is on the rise in almost all African subregions, making Africa the region with the highest prevalence of undernourishment, at almost 20 percent. Hunger is also slowly rising in Latin America and the Caribbean, although its prevalence is still below 7 percent. In Asia, Western Asia shows a continuous increase since 2010, with more than 12 percent of its population undernourished today.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 09:27:17 PM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Sea surface temps around Alaska for the week of July 5-11 remain far above normal. Largest departures (>6C) now in the Chukchi &  western Beaufort Seas, and Bering & Gulf of Alaska also plenty warm. #akwx #Arctic #sst @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @amy_holman @ajatnuvuk @IARC_Alaska


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2019, 08:17:45 PM »
In 1990, one of the most significant collapses of the record of the minimum ice extent in the Arctic according to the NSDIC data was observed:

1) 2007-2005 - 800 thousand square kilometers
2) 2012-2007 - 800 thousand square kilometers
3) 1984-1979 - 500 thousand square kilometers
4) 1990-1984 - 400 thousand square kilometers
5) 1999-1990 - 300 thousand square kilometers
6) 2005-2002 - 300 thousand square kilometers
7) 2002-1999 - 100 thousand square kilometers

It is interesting that 1990 is characterized by one of the longest intervals without a record (6 years). In the first place 1990-1999 years (9 years). The current interval lasts 7 years.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:57:47 PM »
Temperature anomalies for the first 40 days of summer (anomalies from -4 to +4 with an interval of 1).

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