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Messages - petm

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 04:06:44 PM »
The Polarstern (Polar Star), a German research ship, will drift across the Central Arctic by tying itself to a large ice flow for months through the winter dark.

That'll be great to follow. Good luck finding a large floe!

In the Laptev sector, another day with little detected change in concentration, despite continued heat. Is this ice too thick to respond this year (in terms of extent)? On the Pacific side, as noted by others, advection southward is being largely offset by melt, while on the Atlantic side, northward advection and melt continues. Fram export is accelerating.

On the other hand, WorldView shows the ice in the Laptev sector looking terribly weak. Could it be getting close to zero thickness over large areas? If not, there is at least space for significant compression (depending on winds).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 03:32:53 PM »
Aug 11-17

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:22:22 PM »
Drift since Aug 1 (click).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 08:20:49 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these?

Yes, please.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 15, 2019, 11:11:49 PM »
Nice image.

To me it looks like it's the start of the stream now draining the glacier. (Well, to be more accurate, the start is actually under the ice, out of sight.) So, it's a low point that has melted down to bedrock, leaving the small glacier to the right, which must be on higher ground, orphaned.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:57:18 AM »
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)

Download the set of images you want, then go here: . It's literally "EZ".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:42:07 AM »
May I ask where I can get that ice concentration map?

Creme fumee?  :D

I get the maps early just by editing the date near the end of the URL. E.g. Go to , choose the options you want (e.g. NIC color), then click the map thumbnail. It will bring you to the full-sized map. From there, just edit the URL to today's date. The current day's map is turned sideways and has data gaps until the full map is available, which is around 11 pm EST.

(Or just bookmark any full sized map and edit the date after loading it.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:38:33 AM »
SST's north of laptev are turning orange.
I think its probably spurious

I'm not so sure. I've been watching the SSTs most days, and I've seen this before often, it seems to me, preceding or during strong melting. E.g. The Chukchi did it just before a strong melt a month or so ago. There's some similar patterns in the Beaufort too. Possibly where the ice has been reduced to just foam, the melting is no longer sufficient to suppress rising temps? Not sure.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:27:58 AM »
Some nasty surprises are starting to wink thru the cloud as heat keeps pouring in from Eurasia.

Indeed. A peek at today's Bremen, below. Can almost picture someone standing on the Siberian coast with a giant blowtorch. Creme brule? Isn't that supposed to be thick ice there?

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:36:20 AM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:31:52 AM »
Jeebus not the guy who ruined computers. We're doomed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:36:09 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.

Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 08:09:09 PM »
I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.
Honestly curious. Why would that be?
No data in this case. Just based on my perception of sentiment in the States (as I implied). I agree that if it becomes much cheaper to get an EV than an ICE, the obvious would happen. But will it? I've been hearing talk of peak oil for several decades now...

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:29:04 PM »
"Westerners have been the most upset by the robot," said Goto, noting largely positive feedback from Japanese visitors.

That is interesting isn't it.

Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:57:38 PM »
You should hear the rhetoric here in America. Any progress that was made toward environmental awareness up to 2016 is now rolled back by a decade at least. I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 05:34:20 AM »
Aug 7 - 13; 5-day min; click.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 14, 2019, 01:45:06 AM »
— Nena, “99 Luftballons”[[/b][/i]

That song still stands my hair on end, even just running through my head.

Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 14, 2019, 12:40:20 AM »
Using the very unrealistic RCP 8.5 scenario (which assumes we continuing burning coal and oil until they run out), a 4C temperature increase would happen between the 2060s and the end of the century.

That assumes the IPCC forecasts are accurate, which is unlikely given the reports are highly conservative and partly or completely omit important known positive feedbacks such as CH4 release from thermokarst lakes and ice-albedo feedback. I also don't think the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario is that unrealistic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 14, 2019, 12:30:46 AM »
These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.

They certainly do. The joys of science! I think you'd need a few long talks with experts to get a sense of the nuances. Personally I'm skeptical that there's no feedback from low ice to subsequent jet stream weakening and it would take a lot more than one paper convince me (especially if I can't even read that paper!). But then again, I know almost nothing about it.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 13, 2019, 09:35:14 PM »
And that is why people invented the scroll wheel on the mouse.


People could also help Neven without a formal process, e.g. simply by detouring off-topic conversations (including politics and ad hominem contact sports) to sub-threads. If people don't oblige, send Neven a report.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:41:42 PM »
All very true, but perhaps fit for another thread?

Also true but i think the false information cannot simply let be and then until now nobody could show me a decent way how to correct such an obvious false information so that it won't spread to the general public via PM.

Say the person is wrong and then invite him/her to the appropriate thread.

I strongly disagree as well. We are not entering a new glacial period -- obviously the opposite. Please respond on this new thread, should you wish to respond:,2875.0.html

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:50:29 PM »
the climate is no longer static

Yep, the probability distributions are moving.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:27:42 PM »
Yet praise for their foresight is lacking. Why?

Because it led to a lot of killing of babies -- how many? millions? -- mostly girls, and other ghastly crimes.

There's a recent documentary about it, by the way:

But I digress. And I happen to agree with your perception of reality, dark though it may be.

The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: August 13, 2019, 05:14:22 AM »
Scientists are extremely specialized. Many other professions too. At least, specialized in their knowledge...

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: August 12, 2019, 11:46:25 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: August 12, 2019, 08:32:00 PM »
From the abstract (I don't have access to the full article), it doesn't seem they are claiming that climate change is not causing more severe winters. What they are claiming is that sea ice loss does not cause more severe winters, but rather results from the same underlying cause, namely changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.


Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters.

This part of the news story (not from the scientific article):
this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation

... is probably wrong. Most likely a journalist writing above his pay grade.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 12, 2019, 07:13:33 PM »
It says a lot that we're in the 2nd week of August and this is still a very open question, even without any major weather event (or at least no GAC).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 06:09:53 AM »
Lots of areas ready to melt in the next day or two.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:42:42 AM »
Aug 6 - 11

5-day minimum (left) v. original (right)


The fisheries lobbyists didn't bribe him stay in his hotels enough.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: August 12, 2019, 03:19:16 AM »
 ??? :D For once I agree with the mob. The bird threatened them -- doucebags!

I suspect that our current socio-economic systems would not deal well with such fluctuations.

Come on, it'll be fine. Look how well we're already responding to bottom-of-curve changes...  :P

Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 12, 2019, 12:57:56 AM »
Because positive feedbacks will sustain carbon emissions and isn't this the time scale of carbon removal by normal carbon cycle processes?

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 12, 2019, 12:44:42 AM »
That link is broken. Try this: .

How do they know that person isn't just cold?  :D

These politicians and also the masses just don't get it, at all. It would take a hell of a lot of civil disobedience to make any real impact. Armed revolution more like. Won't happen...

Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 12, 2019, 12:35:57 AM »
If we're talking about anthropomorphic emissions, then yes there will certainly be a permanent peak at some point. It could be when the sun expands and melts us off the planet in ~ 5 billion years. But there are some very good reasons to think it will be much sooner. ;)

I don't think political action will ever get close to accomplishing it though. Either a complete collapse of civilization as we know it, or at least a massive population collapse. On the order of centuries, maybe sooner.

But if we're talking about when atmospheric CO2 will next peak, then on the order of millions of years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 11:55:08 PM »
In any case, as Gerontrocrat remarked, it may not be a question of looking at a GIF but analysing the regional numbers of area that he brings.

Those numbers are based on the same data, so how is that any different? The point of looking at images from various sources is to give intuition to guide interpretation of what the numbers may mean.

For me it is clear that, after so many weeks of activity, this last week the edge has remained immobile, relatively cold and inactive for the most part (bottom melting continuing obviously). While in 2019 it was really affected by GAC. <snip> I think not repeat of 2012.

Maybe. I too have thought for a while that the impact of the GAC was underrated here by some. But I think it's still too soon to tell. In a week or two we will know. Certainly the weather seems to be cooperating in terms of comparing storms to not.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 11:25:18 PM »
Depending on various factors including how much scientific training one has, what strikes one person as obvious may be difficult to understand for another. In science, it's almost never easy to get an instrument to measure exactly what you want.

Case in point: Sea ice concentration. Some of the best instruments are on the AMSR-E/2 satellites. Due to physics, data from the high frequency channel, which is used as input to sea ice concentration algorithms, is sensitive to water vapor and clouds. One result of this is that the Bremen concentration maps typically show high concentration ice in areas covered by cloud, regardless of the actual ice concentration.

In fact, even without knowing any technical details, it's easy to see this effect by looking at consecutive days, e.g. using gifs. Large obvious cloud artifacts (purple in the NIC color scheme) frequently appear. These artifacts typically don't persist for many days (except some areas do remain cloudy for weeks on end) and are not predictive of ice edge changes. E.g. Look at the righthand map on the gifs in this post.

In short: Bremen concentration maps from a cloudy days are almost useless. The most recent one (Aug. 10) is a good example. I've attached a fade-across gif of Aug. 9 to 10; originals, right; 5-day median, left. The huge purple area that suddenly covers (e.g.) the asian side is obviously due to cloud. If you have any doubts, cross reference the satellite images, also attached (ice under clear sky is dark red).

I.e., It is counter-productive to cherry-pick cloudy days in an attempt to show concentration increases (or similarly, area).

Click to animate top gif.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 11, 2019, 08:21:27 PM »
Shouldn't this discussion be on the main melting thread?

There is a heat wave going on in the Laptev sector -- do you really think it suddenly froze up in 1 day? If you're not sure, you could always look at now abundantly available satellite imagery...

As has been said repeatedly, single day values of the Bremen maps are almost meaningless, mostly due to cloud artifacts. Clouds generally show up at 100% concentration (purple), move fast (if you look at multiple days), and are shaped like... clouds (big curves, etc.).

If you want to see it visually, I have posted numerous side-by-side images and animations comparing the originals to medians and minimums. Attached are today's 5-day minimum and median. In my opinion, the minimum is probably closest to reality at this time of year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 10, 2019, 04:12:56 PM »
July 13 - Aug 9 (4 weeks)

This animation is a 5-day minimum, not median.

Using the minimum introduces some artifacts. Areas of low concentration ice that are moving will leave a 5-day memory on every pixel they cross; for example, areas of part water and part moving ice, such as the Beaufort edges or ESS, will look like they have more open water than they really do. Similarly, if there are low concentration cloud artifacts, they will also be preserved for 5 days. Also, if new ice were forming, it would likewise not show up for 5 days; but no new ice is forming yet.

However, in my experience, the vast majority of artifacts in these maps are high concentration cloud artifacts, and using the minimum does well at removing most of those. If you follow the evolution of the ice edge this seems to do a good job and maybe hints at what might be coming, such as a continued edge retreat in the Beaufort (minus advection) and NW of the Laptev bite.

Maybe think of this map as something like a worst-case scenario. Use the originals (on the right) as a guide to aid interpretation.

Large file - click.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 10, 2019, 07:16:57 AM »
The central core looks fairly solid

Total bs

Beaufort alone has well over 500k km2 of low concentration rubble:

Laptev has another maybe 500k km2 of thin mush, and this is from almost 2 weeks ago. Zoom in and look at the floe sized (if you can find any floes...):

And north of ESS:

Can in no way be characterized as solid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 09, 2019, 04:24:11 AM »
Spambots are a serious problem for me.
Just want you to know I appreciate everything you do.

Ditto, big time.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 09, 2019, 04:22:03 AM »
Can everyone please knock it off with the ad hominem attacks on other forum members? It's juvenile and annoying. Thanks.

Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: August 09, 2019, 02:11:24 AM »
^^ Can't make it play :(

It's a road biker cranking straight into the back of a large, very obvious stopped bus and leaving quite a dent with his head. Good thing he had a helmet on or he really might have been Darwin Award material. But he was still standing (wobbling) afterwards. Pretty funny.  :D

Edit: Oh here's another link. Maybe this one will work?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:29:58 AM »
Today looking at mercator 0m sea temperature with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparency this time to allow some of the mercator model's higher coastal SST's beneath the ice to show through.

Fantastic animation. Looking at this, it's hard to see any impending slow-down, despite several days of slow area/extent numbers.

Large plumes of moisture forecast to enter the Arctic from Asia and the Pacific.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:08:43 AM »
Bellot Strait doesn't need to open as it looks like you can go around the other way.

The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 04:23:36 PM »
I'm not sure if the deeper (black) comedy is if these posts are honest or trolling. Either way, it's abundantly clear that the Earth will be better off once H. sapiens extincts itself (or at least sends itself back to the Stone Age).

Actually come to think of it, it would be good to do away with liberals. Since that includes the vast majority of scientists, this would greatly reduce our capacity to adapt to the coming environmental challenges and therefore lead to a much faster collapse of civilization. I.e., The best thing to do now for the planet is to follow the right-wing agenda of denialism (of climate change and science in general). 

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: August 08, 2019, 03:05:57 PM »
Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns

The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: August 08, 2019, 04:25:03 AM »
Stunning drone footage captures Chasm 1, a huge crack on the Brunt Ice Shelf. When it inevitably intersects with the nearby Halloween Crack, an iceberg the size of Houston, Texas will break off into the ocean.

Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: August 08, 2019, 03:26:41 AM »
Pakistan Warns Of War After India's Move To End Kashmir's Special Status

Fantastic. /sarc
A local nuclear war that contaminates the Himalayan-sourced drinking water supply would accelerate the collapse of civilization quite substantially.

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