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Messages - petm

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1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 10, 2019, 06:03:20 AM »
https://www.axios.com/wilbur-ross-alabama-noaa-trump-tweet-hurricane-906916f7-8ba9-4053-a8df-3d7e8f52c1c3.html

Nothing coming out of NOAA or any other government agency can be trusted while Trump remains in office.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:43:58 AM »
Sep 3 - 9

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 10, 2019, 04:03:19 AM »
Good job on making this thread Freegrass. :)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:29:16 AM »
Indeed, MYI is already largely a thing of the past...


5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:09:29 AM »
States what? Edit: Ah, no worries. I'm pissed off and seeing red too. Hard to focus with so many *&^% bombs landing every which way... :)

In other news, I'm starting to wonder if early maxima may not become more common in the future: We have apparently already crossed the warming threshold for peripheral melt in the shallow seas to become a yearly phenomena, and to occur earlier and earlier. Conversely, the threshold for yearly melting in the deep CAB takes an extra ? years, and in the meantime, the CAB melt is more or less dependent on the seasonal weather. So in years like this, with protective late-season weather, the peripheral melts out completely earlier and earlier, while the central basin clings on...

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 09, 2019, 06:06:05 AM »
Turns out that Slater overestimated extent loss this year relative to observation. Odd rapid breaking pattern in the end-of-season metrics, very likely not illustrative of the heat accumulated in the system. Not quite sure what to make of it.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 05:57:54 AM »
Fwiw, the NOAA ESRL model thinks there is very little either bottom freeze or melt at this time. (A bit of freeze farther north, a bit of melt farther south, but both low amplitude.)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/
On the left menu bar, go to: "Snow and Ice | Ice Melt Terms".

(Not that I trust NOAA these days, but it seems unlikely that the Trump thought police have started manipulating this model yet.)

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 05:44:13 AM »
Sep 2 - 8

5-day per-pixel minimum v. original Bremen concentration

9
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 07:03:37 AM »
https://www.noaa.gov/news/statement-from-noaa

Well, yet another reliable information source bites the dust. It's amazing how weak America is. Can't even survive one imbecile.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 04:29:46 AM »
It seems that a lot more ice has melted out in the Beaufort this year than virtually any other year. The only recent year that is maybe worse is 2015. This year is a lot worse than 2012 (notwithstanding the remaining tongue).

Attached: North of Prince Patrick Island (CAA), early Sept 2019, 2015, 2012 (relatively cloud-free days).

https://go.nasa.gov/2LiEJ3r

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: September 03, 2019, 04:47:37 AM »
Not (directly) caused by climate change, but would definitely impact it if this is anywhere close to true.



13
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:01:45 AM »
Cross-posting from basic physics thread.


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Basic questions about melting physics
« on: September 02, 2019, 07:35:11 PM »
Are you talking about rolling 1 six after having rolled five sixes already, or rolling 6 sixes after having rolled none? Completely different questions.

Also, wtf?  ??? ;D

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 04:56:15 PM »
Ghost ice in the Beaufort today.

Indeed. Ice is definitely "$&!^", as someone said.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PBtSWC

It's fantastic how extent and area stalled so dramatically, even while continued melting is apparent (and before refreeze has really started). PIOMAS also has known limitations for thin ice. It seems that, as the ice continues to thin Arctic-wide and the weather goes bonkers in different ways, we don't have any good way to measure actual melt. I imagine this state of affairs could make for a pretty shocking year... eventually. But I'll go out on a limb and predict that it won't be this year.  :P

PS. Re: Freegrass' animations. I think grixm was referring to storage space on the server. I don't know if this is actually a problem, as I've never seen Neven mention it (if so please do). And there are a large number of downloads of Fregrass' products, so I'd suggest he keeps it up!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 04:02:16 PM »
Aug 25-31

17
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:27:35 AM »
Perhaps a bit of sloppy nomenclature ... such as abstract concepts not belonging in the "natural world" - yes I admit, it's not always easy keeping the arguments straigth!

Perhaps. Or perhaps it reflects a fundamental contradiction in your synthesis. Worth considering, I would suggest.

18
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:12:26 AM »
Where did I say that we were outside nature? I may have, but I don't recall doing that since that is not my position.

Here:

culpability and guilt are human, abstract, concepts of no meaning in the natural world.

And more importantly, here:

3) The "rest" of nature has no claim on us or our activities. Evolution is precisely "the survival of the fittest", at the moment we are by far the fittest and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future, the rest of the biosphere can either evolve to be useful to us, or pretty enought that we will want to protect it.

19
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:08:32 AM »
Binntho, you keep contradicting yourself. You say both that we are not outside nature and outside nature. Which is it?

20
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 11:00:56 AM »
the rest of the biosphere can either evolve to be useful to us, or pretty enought that we will want to protect it

I agree with your main point that humans are in no way outside of nature or evolution. This part though... either you don't know anything about ecology, or it's a joke.

(And it's worth noting that your (3) fundamentally contradicts your (1) and (2).)

21
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:49:54 AM »
In my view: Evolution by natural selection is over for the human race.
Everytime civilisation humans meet or are discomforted by natural limits, they try and find technofixes. E.g. child mortality, illnesses, immunesystem etc.
Our gene-pool has gotten very polluted in the past 50 years.

I mostly agree. Except for the immune system, which provably continues to rapidly evolve, many areas of human evolution are stalled, notably brain evolution. My point was that selection will resume once civilization collapses.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 28, 2019, 10:26:16 AM »
Aug 21-27

5-day min v. original Bremen concentration

Pacific side partially rebounds after yesterday's retreat. Atlantic side slow advance continues. Asian side no obvious change.

Interestingly, in the Beaufort, the area adjacent to "the tongue" (which itself is becoming rather thin) is approaching zero concentration. Continuous export to the SE Beaufort (where it melts) has taken a toll on this source area. Is the Beaufort the new Greenland Sea?

Also, as noted by Oren, the CAA is on the move.


23
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 02:34:54 AM »
American exceptionalism delusionalism  :o

(I say this as an American. And a Canadian.)

24
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:58:41 AM »
All very true. But it's not the end of the world (yet) ...

Surely not. Life on Earth most likely won't end for another 5+ billion years. :)

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20150323-how-long-will-life-on-earth-last

25
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:53:39 AM »
Ecosystem stability is an emergent property of diversity. It doesn't require any sentient actors to be so. Biology is full of such emergent properties. For example, your body is also self regulating (and not due to your consciousness). If it weren't, you couldn't exist. Evolution (and therefore all of life) is an emergent property of the simplest attribute: self-replication.

26
The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 27, 2019, 07:44:28 AM »
Truly, H. sapiens has been damaging the ecosystem for ages, but there's a key difference now: the rate. Both due to population / economic growth and technological advance, the damage now is happening at rates orders of magnitude faster than in the past, and accelerating. The Earth is not limitless.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:56:52 AM »
Looking more closely at the Alaskan side -- holy carp, it really took a beating! Nothing but mush now in a large area. The extent numbers are very misleading. Shows how weak the ice is, when just one day of moderately bad weather does this.

https://go.nasa.gov/2PhKPFj

(NB: The comparison is from quite a while ago due to clouds. You can see through some areas on some days closer to present, if you poke around.)

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:02:22 AM »
I struggle to reconcile the near-flatlining of some metrics with what I see in Worldview, and particularly what I see in petm & Aluminium's invaluable animated contributions.

Glad they're soothing... ;)

Keep in mind that CAB area does continue to decline, and is easily near-record, competing with only 2012 and 2016, at least by Wipneus' method. Extent is fickle, and in the short-term can have more to do with compaction / dispersal than with the amount of ice present. It has even been suggested that high extent / low area, while not as sexy, may be the worst possible finish vis-a-vis the future health of the pack (by reducing heat escape).

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:48:18 AM »
Aug 20-26

5-day min v. original Bremen

Some reversal of recent trends; expect extent to drop a bit and area to continue dropping. Alaskan side: took a significant hit from the storm yesterday (even though it wasn't big), with both compaction and melt. Asian side: Swiss cheese holes are rapidly expanding -- it wouldn't take much to drop a large area below 15%. Atlantic side: continues stable (minor advance). CAA: doesn't seem to be doing much -- I guess the storm a few days ago, despite significant local effects in some places, was too brief to be reflected much in overall area/extent.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:21:42 AM »
Is the reaction between methane and ocean water endothermic?
The direct reaction between methane and water, producing CO2 and hydrogen, is highly exothermic.   
I think that should have been "between methane and oxygen"

Yeah -- must be a typo. Methane certainly does not have an exothermic reaction with water. If it did, there couldn't be methane hydrates (or a livable climate)...

I don't think CH4 and H2O react at all. Methane hydrates entering the water column can either become dissolved methane, bubbles of methane gas, or can remain solid bits of methane hydrate, floating in the water, depending on conditions. There is a recent review by Natalia Shakhova here (maybe too detailed): https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060251 .

Thanks everyone. I was thinking about slow melt in the ESS.
I think it might have some relation to the general dissolution of gases in water, which I understand to be exothermic at "normal" temperatures.

Wait, is the question about the dissolution of methane gas or solid methane hydrates? Hydrate dissociation is an endothermic process.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:00:14 PM »
And that bomb cyclonic event has suddenly disappeared in 12z model runs today.

Models are being jumpy. Who knows what'll actually come, but the way this season has gone, probably nothing.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 26, 2019, 01:43:51 PM »
The main problem is that there won't be enough food. Societies do tend to collapse when that happens.

(Not caused (only) by a BOE, of course.)

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 01:25:50 PM »
Current GFS and Euro runs continue to forecast a decent storm next week.




34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: August 26, 2019, 12:59:03 AM »
Whoa, suddenly off the chart.

Also, iview4d -- very cool!

35
Glaciers / Re: North Cascade glaciers Disastrous conditions
« on: August 25, 2019, 10:55:12 PM »
Scary! Hopefully no one was hurt -- that's a popular place to hike.

https://robertscribbler.com/2015/08/18/climate-change-is-causing-mt-rainier-to-grumble/

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:59:33 PM »
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

Quote
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Or,

Quote
“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”

-- https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

 ;)

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:00:50 PM »
BTW, even though I predicted RELATIVELY little damage of the current storm, even I was surprised how little. Looking a the numbers the trajectory didn't move downward even the tiniest bit.

Sort of. There was at least local damage in the CAA (incidentally the last bastion of thick ice) and today there are strong winds & waves on the Pacific side. I'd suggest waiting a few days and until the clouds thin before assessing it.



3rd by area guaranteed... Very good chance of 2nd place finish for extent

And the most important (but most difficult to measure): volume?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 05:30:52 PM »
For the first time this year, starting to see some ice formation in the ESRL model: yellows and browns in the figure, on the Asian side to the N of where very strong bottom melt continues.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/seaice/

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:22 PM »
Hooray, they're back!  :)

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 25, 2019, 04:15:33 PM »
NSIDC Area 24 Aug - Bits & Pieces
The lion's share was in the Central Arctic Sea

Interesting step pattern in the CAB. We could be starting down a 3rd step...

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:36:32 PM »
The "beaufort tongue" is gonna get hit hard with some serious winds for a few days in a row. I don't think much of if will survive.

Agreed, with the caveat that it may  initially"stick out" even more -- but that'll just be more to melt in the subsequent week or so.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:27:08 PM »
For me it's simple: Humans have proven incapable of sufficient self control to forestall ecological disaster. So, Mother Nature will have to do it instead, and the sooner she does (incl. BOE), the less the long-term damage.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 23, 2019, 04:47:00 AM »
Would love to see a different or more recent source.

https://ourworldindata.org/search?q=energy

It is what it is... :/

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 23, 2019, 02:27:34 AM »

45
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 23, 2019, 01:18:40 AM »
Less consumption is not politically possible under our current economic system.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 04:58:33 PM »
PETM - What do left and right sides represent?  Thanks

Right side are the original (cropped)  Bremen AMSR2 concentration maps, NIC color style (key attached here).

Left side are per-pixel minimums for 5 trailing days.

Minimums are bad at detecting rapid ice motion from low to high concentration, melt pond refreeze or new ice formation unless it persists 5+ days, etc. But they are good for one key thing: seeing through the many cloud artifacts in the originals.

The idea is to use the minimums together with the original to help interpret what's happening in actively melting areas. They also seem to generally do a good job at mapping the true, persistent high- and low-concentration features.


PETM, perhaps it'd be best if you'd add exact description to each half in some automated way for future ones?

Good idea. I've gotten lazy. And you're most welcome. :)



Re: The O/T.

For me, I used to cheer for a big melt, thinking it might catalyze collective action, but I no longer believe it will matter. (There's zero chance our collective economy will change fast or far enough to avert catastrophe.) So now, I just watch for the enjoyment of witnessing and trying to understand a little of how such a mind-bogglinginly massive and complex system will lurch into a dramatically new state.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 04:37:04 AM »
Strong warm winds will begin entering the CAA in about 12 hours (fig 1).

Also, over the last 4 days, the Euro forecast for Friday (12z) has strengthened steadily from 988 to 970 (fig 2; click). Meanwhile, the GFS has jumped around between ~980 and 970 (fig 3; click), settling on 975 for the latest value (down to 971 for Sat 00z, not shown).

Hopefully things will get interesting again.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Cold Pool in the Bering Strait
« on: August 22, 2019, 04:14:20 AM »
Is this a new or unusual feature?

From zero previous knowledge and not much research (so probably incorrect), it could be the Siberian Coastal Current or wind driven ESS surface waters. Or could simply be upwelling of one of the Pacific currents (the Bering Shelf current?) -- not sure how cold they are at depth.



https://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview



https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/



http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/bstrait.html#Importance


https://woostergeologists.scotblogs.wooster.edu/2018/08/08/can-heat-flow-in-ocean-models-predict-seasonal-arctic-sea-ice-retreat/




49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 21, 2019, 01:24:17 PM »
They went looking for it?  :D

50
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 21, 2019, 05:16:03 AM »

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