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Messages - grixm

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 07:59:50 AM »
It looks, very tentatively, like "normal" flow (clockwise, leading to south export) is trying to reassert itself in the PGAS, but I'm not going to make any definitive proclamations on one day of satellite images.

On the other hand, I will make proclamations about Massey Sound, which is just a brutal place for the ice to die right now.

What is the PGAS? It's not in the glossary thread and I find nothing by googling it.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 09, 2019, 08:44:46 AM »
Eye of a hurricane? No, this strange looking cloud is located in Baffin Bay!


3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 04, 2019, 07:23:56 PM »
Except for an area of the northern Barents sea between Svalbard and FJI which has been cooled by advection of ice into the waters, SSTs are anomalously high on the Atlantic side.<snip>

Yes, SST anomalies have gone crazy recently, on both the atlantic and the pacific side. Animation below for the past 6 weeks.


My naive reaction is that those anomalies around the CAA suggest that a complete melt out is possible there.

The thickness in most of the CAA is already very low according to PIOMAS, so I agree.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 03, 2019, 09:59:46 PM »
Both GFS and Euro predicts a huge intrusion of heat from the russian side starting at T+5 days.


5
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: August 02, 2019, 12:54:37 PM »
This subject is just silly.  Climate activists would not be able to get to meetings if they could not fly.

People have to work.  I fly a lot for my job.  People need to take vacations and often flying is the only way to do that.

We have this wonderful technology today that is video conferencing. Physical meetings are not really necessary anymore, people are just unwilling to change their habits.

People also don't *need* to take faraway vacations. That is an extravagant luxury that 90% of the world's population almost never does.

B.S. , human interaction and reading of nonverbal cues are as important pieces of information as ever. I agree trips should be minimized, but some work cannot be done from afar. 

Ok let's put aws in place to cage people in their 100 mile radius...your proposal will go very well...

You get 95% of all nonverbal cues through video. It is enough for pretty much all work-related purposes.

And yes, I think that would in fact go well. People would be mad, like a child being taken away his toys, but long term it would probably be best for humanity. It is an extreme measure, but the situation calls for extreme measures, because chances are the alternative is extinction. Of course this is all hypothetical, as people will never let such regulations happen, but I think that is a shortsighted, irrational and greedy decision.

6
Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: August 02, 2019, 10:17:01 AM »
Quote from: grixm
For one, airplane emissions contributes to the greenhouse effect around 2-4 times as much as emissions on the ground.

Source??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviation#Total_climate_effects

And they give this as the primary source for that specific statement: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/aviation/index.htm

7
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: August 02, 2019, 10:11:22 AM »
This subject is just silly.  Climate activists would not be able to get to meetings if they could not fly.

People have to work.  I fly a lot for my job.  People need to take vacations and often flying is the only way to do that.

We have this wonderful technology today that is video conferencing. Physical meetings are not really necessary anymore, people are just unwilling to change their habits.

People also don't *need* to take faraway vacations. That is an extravagant luxury that 90% of the world's population almost never does.

8
Nice animations Tor and Sterks. Note the 2017 typo.
Thanks, Ah didn't catch that, the Sentinel-hub app puts those labels. I'd swear these images are 2019

Are you sure about that? Looks to me like your pictures are indeed from 2017. Here's a gif comparison between 2017 and now (click). Notice the shape and position of the the edge, and compare to your image.

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 30, 2019, 09:59:39 PM »
More melt ponds than any other day in the season so far at the Freya glacier webcam. 13.6C
 
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 08:24:16 AM »
Look at this melting in the Beaufort!

The biggest of these floes were over 10km long in the first picture, with sharp edges. Then two days later: Poof. Just unrecognizable foam.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 10:10:56 PM »
For the first time in a long time we have a cloud-free view of the western CAA:


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 11:12:09 AM »
Well the edge of the Beaufort ice is melting rapidly. Lots of area of slush simply vanished in 24 hours: https://go.nasa.gov/2K4kowV

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 25, 2019, 08:18:10 AM »
If the 0z GFS verifies, Greenland will see an extreme melt event starting at +120h. At daytime 90% of the island will have above freezing surface air temperature and the coast will reach 20C+, all lasting several days!


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 23, 2019, 07:14:03 PM »
Baffin Bay full of scattered icebergs looks like the starry night sky. Quite beautiful.

https://i.redd.it/1zaxpynw53c31.jpg


15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:00:57 PM »
GFS max 2m temps for the next 10 days are 2-3C where most of the ice is located. Average temps are obviously lower. Enough to keep melt going steadily, but nothing epic as far as I can tell.

Wouldn't the ice peg the surface temperature to around that level regardless of how much melt is going on? Since melting ice absorbs heat energy from the surroundings. I think something like 850hpa temps are more indicative of the actual stress the ice experiences.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 03:44:22 PM »
How does DMI see ice that is over 2 and 3 meters thick in the region I circled?
Its all rubble...

I try an explanation, and I stop with DMI on this topic.
I think it IS 2 and 3 meters thick in Beaufort now, but indeed, in rubbles. But DMI fails to see spaces between floes.
So, where there are thick floes, it seas thick whole area, and overestimates volume. And in Beaufort now, it particularly overestimates volume because floes are thick.

I suppose when ice is covering smoothly all the area, DMI doesn't overestimate volume.
It could explain why it didn't overestimate volume in 2008, ice was thin in some important areas, but surface concentration was good.

The map only shows thickness, not concentration, and DMI uses concentration data combined with the thickness to estimate volume. So it doesn't overestimate or underestimate volume based on how concentrated the ice is.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 17, 2019, 06:42:15 PM »
The polynya north of Greenland keeps growing, and fast ice is shattering.
Also lots of cracks that weren't there yesterday, in the ice to the west, outside the Nares strait.

https://go.nasa.gov/2JABGmq



18
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 14, 2019, 04:36:31 PM »

Seems like you are trusting your gut instead of the result of modelling.
Should I put my trust in a projection based on a 4 parameter Gompertz equation?
Any more than I should put my trust in the attached?

Probably not.  However the Gompertz does a better job of fitting the observation data.  Is that just coincidence?  On the other hand, is there any reason to suspect a straight line decline?  In any case, the largest rate of decline occurred over a roughly 10-year period, from 1998 - 2007.  The decades both before and after have shown much less melt.  Perhaps we are trying to apply a mathematical fit, where none exists.  I think the ice will continue to decline, but in method between the two fits; less than the straight line, but more than the Gompertz.  However, I could be just as wrong as the many others before who tried to predict the Arctic sea ice.

A 4 parameter gompertz is a far more complicated equation than the 2 parameter straight line. When allowed complexity rises the pool of possible functions that fit the observed data also rises, but the chance of such a fit being genuine and not a coincidence also falls, because of overfitting. Thus, when several equations fit the observed data reasonably, the least complex of them is more likely to be more correct, that's Occam's razor.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 08:26:30 AM »

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 08:26:03 PM »
You guys should starting using webm files instead of gif. You can reduce filesize by like 90% with almost the same quality, like this version of Burnrate's gif:

.

Or if you really have a terrible connection, this forum has a WAP2 style page which is only text and loads super easily: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.2575/wap2.html

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 10:03:14 PM »
Sorry if this has already been posted, but it seems the fast ice has started to break up around the Lena river delta in the past couple of days.

Also zooming in on the nearby ice there are just all these cracks developing all over it, some are almost running all the way from the images below to the sea north of it. I'm still a noob but to my eyes the whole area looks prime for collapse.

22
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 21, 2019, 11:05:36 AM »
Looks like Europe will get hammered next week.

23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: June 15, 2019, 06:46:27 PM »
New melt ponds are appearing in the Freya Glacier webcam: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2019, 03:37:54 PM »
Hi, first post on this forum. I think I might get addicted.

Not sure if it has been posted before, but I saw that yesterday the NSIDC sea ice extents on both the arctic and antarctic individually were the lowest in the satellite era on this date.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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