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Messages - Freegrass

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 07:58:07 PM »
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

Anyway... This is waaaayyyyyyyyyy OT. I didn't want to reply because at first I thought you were pulling my leg, but then I saw all the replies, and thus... Read this...

Declaration of Principles on Equality
https://www.equalrightstrust.org/ertdocumentbank/Pages%20from%20Declaration%20perfect%20principle.pdf

Good luck!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:10:42 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.
It's only normal that when a forum like this grows, that people will show up that haven't had the privilege to study the arctic for multiple years. When you tell people like that to go away, they will, and this forum will stay small.

I see this thread more as the main ASIF thread. A place to discuss and learn about the arctic. There are other threads for pure data and science. Let this place be a place where people like me can learn, and get involved.

I try to contribute to this forum with my videos. Many people like them, some people don't. Those that don't, can just put me ignore, and all those videos will disappear.

So use the ignore button, or accept the fact that we're not all scientists.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 08:33:14 PM »
Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
It looks like Gerontocrat's graphs spell doom for my AMOC slowdown theory... :(
Or does it? I'm not giving up yet! hehe  :P

What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

I'm not arguing! I'm just a big believer in the AMOC slowdown theory, and I'm not gonna give up defending it yet! ;)

Edit:
The AMOC splits already, so I think that my theory isn't all that crazy. It could be that the Barents sea arm of the AMOC is getting stronger, while the Fram arm is getting weaker.

Is there any data available on this?


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 04:27:34 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:35:35 AM »
What surprised me this year is the heat in the Atlantic. That "cold blob" is as good as gone, and the oceans around Greenland are especially hot this year. That would explain why Greenland is still having melt days this late in the season, but I don't understand it. The melting of the Greenland ice cap was enormous this year, and thus you'd think that the ocean would be cooler with all that cold meltwater. So what happened?

This is a comparison between 2018 and 2019. Notice also that the hot spot anomaly west of Svalbard has grown significantly. I haven't seen that before. I know that this hot spot has been debated before, and is thought to be an error, but why is it getting bigger this year?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:14:40 AM »
Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.
I found this article. Interesting read!

Quote
When the current is faster, more of the warm, salty tropical water travels to the North Atlantic. Over years this causes more glaciers to melt, and eventually the freshwater makes the surface water lighter and less likely to sink, slowing the current.

When the AMOC is in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, ice melt slows, and eventually the freshwater melt source dries up and the heavier saltier water can plunge down again, which speeds up the whole circulation.

Recent high-tech tracking of the AMOC itself to suggest that its strength fluctuates as part of a roughly 60- to 70-year, self-reinforcing cycle.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 12:30:26 AM »
Let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
I try to restrict my drinking to ones every 2 weeks, but when I drink, I drink hard, and I can be an ashole sometimes when I'm in a bad mood...

My apologies for my bad behavior the other day!

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 19, 2019, 01:57:20 PM »
Five day Forecast
September 19 - 24

Wind + Temp @ Surface

Converted with this free new site I found where you can choose which file size you want and convert it to any type of video you like.
https://www.online-convert.com/

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 18, 2019, 02:29:55 PM »
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 17 - 23

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 17, 2019, 01:51:49 PM »
Five day Forecast
September 17 - 22

Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:20:06 PM »
There are over 2000 topics on this site and anyone can create one.
OK! Thank you!

The freezing season is about to start again and we need to give space to the professionals that don't like us amateurs messing up their thread. That's why I created this "thread for dummies" (aka people without a scientific background) that are concerned about the climate and want to discuss it without being bitched by the "professionals".

The Freezing Season For Dummies
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2915.0.html


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:27:42 AM »
Neven, may I suggest making 2 threads about the upcoming freezing season, and the following melting season?

The freezing/melting season for dummies
and
The freezing season/melting season for scientists/by numbers

That way non scientific people that are concerned about the environment, and just want a place to chat about it, will have a home.

The scientific people can have their own place as well then, where they can complain and chase away the "dummies".

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 14, 2019, 09:28:28 PM »
Aleph_Null, what I found out these last 3 months as a Newbie on this forum is that some people here don't like it when new members take away the spotlight from the oldtimers. Al they do is moan and bitch over file sizes, but they fail to reply to any other message I post. So what we have here my dear friend is a textbook example of bigotry. We are excluded from the group... They rather have we left, so they get all the attention again... But who cares? Leave those idiots be. Do what you know to be right, and work together for the benefit of all mankind! ;)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 14, 2019, 02:11:18 AM »
This is probably better for large file sizes. And I can tweet these...  ;D

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 13, 2019, 01:04:14 PM »
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Thank you for the feedback Blumenkraft! I was thinking that this one would be interesting. Clouds block the heat from escaping, right? And snow insulates the ice from freezing?

A combination of Nullschool graphics is also something that I've been wanting to do. I'll figure it out eventually! ;)

Keep the feedback coming!

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:38:14 PM »
I  think it will require more import of oceanic heat - from the Atlantic side in particular - to push the system out of the state I think it may have settled into.
Where would this heat come from? As the Gulf Stream slows down, less heat will get transported into the arctic, no?

Quote
"We see a cooling southeast of Greenland, although everywhere else on the globe you see a warming," said Levke Caesar, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and co-author of a study that found the current to be 15% weaker. "When the circulation slows down, we have less heat transport to that region."
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-gulf-stream-seas-hotter-florida.html

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:38:47 PM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 12 - 17

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 12:26:23 PM »
How many people will be trying to get the screenshot of exactly 1 million reads today? I got this beautiful number already...

Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 996666 times)

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 12, 2019, 01:41:22 AM »
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 11 - 16

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 02:20:31 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
2019-09-11 09:00 UTC
2019-09-16 06:00 UTC

The latest temperature animation and more can be found here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 03:44:42 PM »
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs" thread?
Thanks Jim! That's a lot of information. The A-team really went for it...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 01:42:58 PM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 09:00 UTC
2019-09-15 06:00 UTC

I'll be posting a maximum of one animation a day on this thread. I hope that's not too much for some? If it is, let me know! More Nullschool animations can be found here.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 01:40:21 PM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 09:00 UTC
2019-09-15 06:00 UTC

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 12:49:57 PM »
The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.
That's actually day and night that you are seeing. The trees must be the ones doing the breathing.

Quote
Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires.
That animation was posted by Cameron Beccario on his twitter feed, the man who created Nullschool. https://twitter.com/cambecc

I have to figure out now how to make such smooth animations. They're so well made.
I'm combining GIMP with EZgif now. I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 11:41:20 AM »
Time-lapse animation of 2019 Amazon rainforest fires visualized with carbon monoxide.

This animation is a one month time-lapse of carbon monoxide surface concentration, as modeled by GEOS-5. Fires begin to intensify on Aug 5th, 2019.


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 11:37:19 AM »
Animation of intense 2019 Siberian wildfires, visualized as carbon monoxide concentrations.

This two month time-lapse animation shows carbon monoxide surface concentration over Siberia, as modeled by GEOS-5, between June 1st and Aug 23rd, 2019.


27
Arctic sea ice / Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 10:48:34 AM »
I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.
Thanks for the kind words and your contributions Aleph_Null! Keep them coming! I've been using Nullschool for many years now, and I love it. I prefer these visuals over raw data any day. That's probably because I'm not a real scientist, and I'm pretty sure there are many more people like me on this forum; People without a masters degree that just want to know more about the climate.

Did you know Nullschool is an open source Github project?
https://github.com/cambecc/earth

I just changed the topic title to "Nullschool Animations", that way it includes forecasts, hindcasts, and specials. Or do you have another suggestion?

Again, thank you for adding to this thread! There are so many possibilities with Nullschool that I'm sure we can turn this into a valuable place.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:58:21 AM »
Wind + Temp @ Surface

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 10, 2019, 08:10:15 AM »
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 09:48:33 PM »
Wind @ 250hPa Forecast

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 09, 2019, 07:43:52 PM »
You're welcome! Glad you like them!

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water Forecast

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:40:16 PM »
It's difficult to do good for everyone, so this is an elegant solution.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:14:10 PM »
Problem solved! I will be posting my Nullschool graphics here from now on. Feel free to post your own!

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.0.html

35
Arctic sea ice / Nullschool Animations
« on: September 09, 2019, 03:12:29 PM »
I will be posting my Nullschool animations here from now on.
I hope you Like Them! And don't be shy to post your own!

Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-09 09:00 UTC
2019-09-14 06:00 UTC

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 09, 2019, 07:34:37 AM »
Why are you posting pictures of that area? Svalbard is nowhere on that image.

If you scroll right Svalbard is visible. Dorian isn't though!
It's Dorian alright...

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 07:32:15 AM »
Can this be considered clear proof that low pressure systems puch the ice outwards?
https://go.nasa.gov/2UGRLuU

I doubt if there is any more debate on this Freegrass. When last we mentioned this, it went on too long and Neven snipped it.

I commented on the way wind is pulled towards the centre of low pressures (due to surface friction). But that is only for wind and the coriolis effect is predominant for ice floes/drift. Ice will drift to the right (of the isobar) in the northern hemisphere, outwards from the low centre. I was mixing up ice drift with wind and stand corrected on this.
I didn't want to continue the debate Niall. I agree that the debate is settled now. I just thought this was a beautiful visual on the theory. You'll see it when you zoom in and out a little. It's a perfect storm, visually... ;)

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 01:24:20 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

That Laptev storm could do some serious damage to the already weakened ice in that area.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 10:48:20 AM »
That's a low pressure system so it causes dispersion -- the opposite of compaction.

On your figure, I suggest you redraw your arrows at 45 degrees to the right of the actual wind directions displayed -- which is the direction the ice goes (Coriolis) -- and then you will see the dispersion.

It's pretty trippy how a low-pressure system which should intuitively drag stuff inwards to fill the void, actually ends up pushing things away instead.
It actually isn't... A low pressure system creates a bulge on the ocean surface, so ice would have to travel up a slope to get to the center of that bulge. High pressure systems create a dent in the ocean surface, so the ice falls into that pit towards the center...

I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate, but can there be some truth to this?


Try reading this article about Ekman Transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport

Movements on a spinning sphere aren't always intuitive
Thank you Glenn, I will certainly look at that! It was on my to do list...

I can't really visualize this. If gravity could move the ice down the slope, it would simply even out the water bulge as well.
I actually started writing that down as a joke, but then started wondering if there could be some truth to this. But mainly, I was joking, because the wind would of course have a much bigger impact on the ice than gravity.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 09:24:02 AM »
That's a low pressure system so it causes dispersion -- the opposite of compaction.

On your figure, I suggest you redraw your arrows at 45 degrees to the right of the actual wind directions displayed -- which is the direction the ice goes (Coriolis) -- and then you will see the dispersion.

It's pretty trippy how a low-pressure system which should intuitively drag stuff inwards to fill the void, actually ends up pushing things away instead.
It actually isn't... A low pressure system creates a bulge on the ocean surface, so ice would have to travel up a slope to get to the center of that bulge. High pressure systems create a dent in the ocean surface, so the ice falls into that pit towards the center...

I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate, but can there be some truth to this?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 07:26:29 PM »
Look at this big piece of fast ice go poof in just 1 day... Today - one day later - it's blue ocean...
This is to the east of Greenland, in the Fram strait.

https://go.nasa.gov/2LmJBVg

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 10:41:12 AM »
Wind @ Surface and Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I've added 24 hours of yesterday's weather on today's weather videos, because I wanted to capture that storm from start to end. The forecast of this storm has been going from a 6 beaufort storm to a 5 beaufort storm, and now it's back to a 6, almost 7 beaufort storm. So it's strengthened again! And the reason for this strengthening can be seen best with the TPW forecast. You can clearly see how this storm is feeding again on the Russian heat, and when that heat is cut off, the storm turns light brown (cold), and dies... Beautiful!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:42:34 PM »
Topic: The 2019 melting season  (Read 777777 times)
That was too beautiful to let go... ;D

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:14:06 PM »
Worldview 1-3 Sept shows a 15-30 km movement of that cracked ice towards fram.
There's one float - around 20 km long, shaped like an egg, closest to Greenland - that's quite the race machine... Look at it go!

https://go.nasa.gov/2LizH74

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:00:11 AM »
I'm not sure if things will get ugly as the low will be a cold one
Hi Paul. Your second name isn't Beckwith by any chance? That would be an honor! :)
When you say "this is a cold one", are you talking about the resident CAB low, or the new one that came off Norway, and joined the resident low? Looking at these images, you can see how it's sucking in warm moist air from Russia. This air is the engine for that low. no? The more heat it sucks in, the stronger it gets?

I need to continue watching this lecture and learn some more, but I haven't had the time yet...
Anyone familiar with this lecture?

Edit: Already on Lecture 6 now: Introduction to convective storms. This is really interesting! He explains everything clearly in detail, from the ground up. Perfect for someone like me, with only basic knowledge about the "weather".

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:15:04 PM »
The Latest Forecast is looking increasingly more windy. If that 981 hPa storm can find some more of that Russian heat, this could still get ugly really fast! Right? Am I reading that correctly? Still learning...

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 02:34:28 PM »
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 02:08:05 PM »
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 02, 2019, 11:25:08 AM »
Latest Five Day Forecast

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 07:55:44 PM »
The Five Day Forecast is looking nasty...
That pacific storm has finally found a way through the Bering strait...

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