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Messages - Florifulgurator

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 12, 2020, 05:08:38 AM »
I still haven't taken a closer look at the very Ordinary Differential Equation in 4 variables, which I don't even recall except that R thing. Maybe I haven't looked because there is a rub in a more stochastico-statistical model: Dispersion.

I guess it comes unsurprising to the "practicioners" - who exist since centuries. It's the superspreading events, stupid. Our random variable has dispersion and it looks different to influenza. Covid-19 can spread rapidly, but has to check out many opportunities and needs a larger viral load to hit hard. Influenza spreads easily, but is lazy.

Now I'd like to see stuff about the flattening of Influenza this year.

Here is an excellent German article

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 08, 2020, 11:11:34 PM »
I don't see why travel between countries with similar infection rates should be restricted.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: June 06, 2020, 05:39:15 PM »
It's the same simple pattern since day one of his presidency: When there is a scandal, Trump sais some demented bullshit to outrage the media, the media becomes outraged over it, and loses focus on the actual issues.

Every. Single. Time. !!

And since what he does now is so extreme and unique, he turns it up on the 'say outraging shit publicly to distract the media' knob.

Trump composes his little distraction melodies, and ten minutes later you see the journalists lining up singing his song. It's truly the pied piper era.

As seen here:

This Is the Most Singularly Batsh*t Crazy Thing Any President Has Said Out Loud in Public

Link >>

Yes. But methinks this is a counterexample. (As we Germans know, exceptions can confirm the rule :) )

Some of Trump's PR stunts are unintentional, and with the recent intentional ones he shot himself in the foot. Like, teargassing his way to a church to hold up the bible like an idiot who never held a book in his hands. The sacrilege sure cost him a little of his approval rating.

The “George is looking down right now" stunt I see as unintentional. This is just plain stupid Donald, in a situation that is way over his head - once again... Methinks it is paradigmatic for his complete failure of brains and ethics. A short proof of Trump's total ridicu-lousiness. (Like it's nice to have several proofs of Pythagoras' theorem.) So, this time, worth reporting. Especially when it helps eroding his religious base.

Alas Esquire quotes it a bit out of context, stupid Trump finding an excuse for police violence against protesters.  ;D ROTFL.

(Weird: Youtube link not working here. The whole Kimmel video seems only available on FB and Twitter.)

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: June 05, 2020, 07:09:43 PM »
On the recent catastrophic oil spill:

Russia's prosecutor general on Friday ordered a review of hazardous structures built on permafrost after concluding that a huge Arctic fuel spill last week was caused by shifting ground.

The office of the prosecutor general said in a statement that a preliminary conclusion of the spill's causes is the "sagging of the ground and the concrete foundation" which caused the reservoir's failure.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: May 07, 2020, 02:33:06 AM »
...which brings us to an unexpected postludium to the later fuga fugarum on drums

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: May 07, 2020, 02:24:25 AM »


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: May 07, 2020, 02:22:30 AM »
Preparing for my next to-be-moderated nonchronological anachronism: One of my favorite Brazilian pieces

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: April 29, 2020, 07:22:39 PM »

Dug out and translated by Ugo Bardi.

I am Death and wear a crown [Italian: corona],
I am for all of you lady and mistress
and I am so cruel, so strong and harsh
that your walls won’t stop me.

I am Death and wear a crown,
I am for all of you lady and mistress
and in front of my scythe you’ll have to bow your head
and walk to the gloomy Death’s pace.

You are the guest of honor at the dance we are playing for you,
put your scythe down and dance round and round
a round of dancing and then one more,
and you’ll be no longer the lady of time.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 28, 2020, 11:15:06 PM »

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in March — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.


As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, [...]

But there remains a large gap between this number and the total deaths above typical levels in the last six and a half weeks: more than 4,200 people whose deaths are not captured by the official coronavirus toll.


Hospitals around the country have reported reductions in admission for heart attacks, one sign that some people may be dying at home from ailments they would survive during more normal times.


The rest / Re: Masks
« on: April 28, 2020, 03:10:33 PM »
Why, may I ask, are masks in a different thread and talk about them is banned from this thread?

Quite frankly, because you cluttered the main thread with mask-extremism at a time when most experts were (for several good reasons) precarious about them.

misinformation campaign was carried out to make people not wear them.

There was a lot of evidence that they might be counterproductive. There wasn't misinformation, but the promotion of experts' recommendations.

Now members bring relevant talk about masks and they are shutdown. Why?

Because there is this dedicated thread now. Here it's on topic.
There was also anti-mask extremism.
But yes, in the beginning even the WHO advised against relying on masks.

Meanwhile the picture has changed radically. Masks are an essential mitigation tool. No serious corona thread without masks.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 27, 2020, 10:46:49 PM »
... replacing street lights with glowing trees ...

Wow, that's a future to look forward to!

Flowerpower FTW!

Florifulgurator protests vehemently. No Frankentrees!

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 27, 2020, 09:52:52 PM »
New York City vs. Tokyo
NYC has had 11,000 Covid deaths.
Tokyo, the World's largest and densest city, has had 93.

NYC is locked down.
Tokyo was never locked down.

Both have had the virus for the same amount of time.
Why is NYC's death rate 250 times higher than Tokyo's? Something fishy here.

Tokyo likely never has had the virus in the wild. The amount of returning tourists with the infection could do about that. How did they catch every homecoming case? Not to mention that Japanese people are pretty obsessive with sanitation and general cleanliness i think.
Yes. They are long used to wearing masks in public. Evidence is mounting that masks are a crucial deceleration factor.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 23, 2020, 01:41:40 AM »
However, Neven is correct in that a zombie apocalypse did not occur - even in Italy, and even if the deaths are under-reported by 30%.
Double nope. The horror scenario was not zombie apocalypse but triage. And it occured in Italy and elsewhere. In Spain they stopped sending an ambulance for folks beyond 75.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: April 22, 2020, 11:57:09 PM »
Happy earth day everyone.

I will watch this after morning chores. I think it is intended to ruffle some is Micheal Moore and he wanted it released on Earth Day.
I just started it and I had a hard time hitting stop play. How are they going to know it’s their time to go?

Reading the YouTube blurb should suffice. Have stopped wasting time after 30min. Is it the channel of Michael Moore of Michigan - or is it the ex Greenpeace industry shill of the same name? Has the former jumped the shark (again) and turned krypto-Trumpist?

I realize this is about the USA, which is a decade+ behind modern nations like Germany (which is also behind with essentials like the grid). But this is defeatist disinformation. E.g. that solar field powering 10 homes only? Seems laughable even for American style energy waste huts. E.g. hydrogen: Everybody knows this is laughable except in niche applications like a Tokyo city bus.

BTW my electricity needs would require 2-3 solar panels plus battery. My biomass home heating is locally sourced carbon negative and way cheaper than fossil fuel heating. If I had a commuting job I would get me an EV which I would charge during peak solar PV production: While at work - and not at night. During night I might sell grid balancing service.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 22, 2020, 04:38:46 PM »
This death total has occurred with a virtual cessation, since the middle of March, of all economic activity in this region of the country with the exception of essential businesses. We are storing bodies in refrigerated trucks and burying them in trenches.

In a really bad flu season, the U.S. can expect 60,000 deaths nationwide. I am not an epidemiologist, do not play one on TV, but this is not the flu. [...]
Thanks for this reminder. All that is necessary to get a sufficient grasp of the problem is to watch news.

We have no Zombie apocalypse in Germany (due to excellent hospitals, epidemiologists, and one Angela Merkel who can do maths...).  So the deniers and lukewarmers are going apesh#. I just had a "debate" with one. He was easy to silence: "Explain the refrigerated trucks in NY, the ice rink mortuary in Madrid, the army convoy and the obituary pages in Bergamo. And here is the latest statistics on general excess mortality in Europe."

Alas with some delay the darling statistic of the deniers is getting significant: shows peaks for many countries that dwarf the flu seasons. It will get more impressive in the coming weeks.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 19, 2020, 04:09:30 PM »
This graph seems to show that the amount of COVID-19 patients on Swedish ICUs is stabilising (source). Is that interpretation correct?
Likely they are reaching capacity. Sweden has one of the lowest numbers of ICU beds per capita in Europe. (According to outdated wikipedia it is ca. 590. Couldn't find fresh numbers.)

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: April 13, 2020, 03:05:10 PM »
Is Dr. Didier Raoult (of COVID-19 miracle drug hydroxychloroquine fame) a body double of Trump doc Harold Bornstein? They even have the almost same shirt:

They also look like Jean Pierre van Rossem lightweight versions (h/t kassy)

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: April 12, 2020, 12:35:31 AM »
If you enjoy sweet hurt of ears occasionally... Here's a video from a memorable concert I almost went to. But the ticket was a tad expensive and all folks in the car were male and gay. Also, back then Michael Jackson stuff almost made me throw up (plus, Cyndi Lauper etc. etc.). Michael Jackson and my childhood piano teacher are to fault that I never got into music.  8)
Starts 0:26. My hero here is not Miles Davis (except for one of his classical "wrong" notes) but Kenny Garrett. Except for his and half of John Coltrane's play I hate shrieking saxophones. :)

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 12, 2020, 12:24:01 AM »
And i would like to be allowed to fight (snip) racism (of which there is too much on the forum IMHO).

I think your definition of racism is pretty skewed. Your heart is in the right place but you are hypersensitive about it. I remember the drama in this thread where you ended up calling Archimid a "nazi handmaiden" for merely pointing out the fact that there are certain medical differences between genetic populations, such as sickle cell prevalence:,2996.msg249684.html#msg249684

If these are the kinds of posts that you would label as racism and remove, then I am against you being admin, if I am being honest.
Seconded. Seen other hysteria.

The forum / Re: Who would like to take over the ASIF?
« on: April 09, 2020, 02:59:41 PM »
Ideally the management should be given in the hands of a scientific institution with several people doing the job.

First close the polit threads /echo chambers. A scientific forum is a great tool for targeted polit trollery. That should not be a motivation for someone to take over management.  I see clear and present danger that the polit threads could become even worse.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: March 24, 2020, 05:50:35 PM »
Greta and Svante possibly have Corona.

The last two weeks I’ve stayed inside. When I returned from my trip around Central Europe I isolated myself (in a borrowed apartment away from my mother and sister) since the number of cases of COVID-19 (in Germany for instance) were similar to Italy in the beginning. Around ten days ago I started feeling some symptoms, exactly the same time as my father - who traveled with me from Brussels. I was feeling tired, had shivers, a sore throat and coughed. My dad experienced the same symptoms, but much more intense and with a fever.
In Sweden you can not test yourself for COVID-19 unless you’re in need of emergent medical treatment. Everyone feeling ill are told to stay at home and isolate themselves.
I have therefore not been tested for COVID-19, but it’s extremely likely that I’ve had it, given the combined symptoms and circumstances.

Now I’ve basically recovered, but - AND THIS IS THE BOTTOM LINE: I almost didn’t feel ill. My last cold was much worse than this! Had it not been for someone else having the virus simultainously I might not even have suspected anything. Then I would just have thought I was feeling unusually tired with a bit of a cough.
And this it what makes it so much more dangerous. Many (especially young people) might not notice any symptoms at all, or very mild symptoms. Then they don’t know they have the virus and can pass it on to people in risk groups.
We who don’t belong to a risk group have an enormous responsibility, our actions can be the difference between life and death for many others.

Please keep that in mind, follow the advice from experts and your local authorities and #StayAtHome to slow the spread of the virus. And remember to always take care of each other and help those in need.
#COVID #flattenthecurve" - Greta Thunberg

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 11, 2020, 04:49:48 AM »
I admit that I don't do such a search so I may have already posted double.
Since a couple of months I have made a list of all songs I have posted.

I don't know if it's your kind of humour but I find the film "National Lampoon's European Vacation" (1985) very funny. I can't find the full movie on youtube for free alas.

Herbie Hancock - Doin' It (1979)

<www. youtube .com Eq7wSIDjAes>
Mei nether... But some stuff bears repeating. :)
Thanks for the unknown Herbie Hancock... Actually stuff that made me hate Herbie for a few years (paradigmatic: Rockit)... Here is young Herbie Hancock:

...and what made me rediscover Herbie Hancock:

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: March 10, 2020, 04:49:27 PM »
Meanwhile Greta's Atlantic crossing has a place in history on the same book shelf as Cristopher Columbus 1492.

Funny how Greta's mantra UNITE BEHIND THE SCIENCE gets seriously tested nowadays... Can you feel the Greta Effect in the Dow Jones index? 

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: March 08, 2020, 02:17:27 AM »
For a decade or two I thought I couldn't stand Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue any more. But now I've discovered Herbie Hancock rhapsodising it:

... plus, the gayest of pianists actually being more than just diamond buttons:

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:31:06 PM »
La Vagabonde is putting out videos of their Atlantic crossing with Greta and Svante. There isn't that much footage of them, but some nice shots of private Greta every now and then. One video even shows her dancing. The latest one has more Greta, starting with a little interview, and a classic Aspergerish "The soup doesn't smell horrible. Now back to my depressing audio book..." :) .

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: February 27, 2020, 11:32:19 AM »

I had the idea of mixing some soil in from old forest that contains many different kinds of fungi will help. Is that a good idea?

Nope, it is an excellent idea. :)  Best source seems to be spruce trees. Dig out a small one, or just take some soil from near the roots.

Perhaps you already have some on your ground. Look where the grass is greenest, like in this video, and transplant a shovel of soil:

As always I recommend producing biochar, if you got some spare wood, especially for sandy soil. Here is the world's best video. You can leave the char in the pit and make your new bed on top. Perhaps I'm too cautious, but I would plant/harvest edibles only a year later.

This man from Ireland has lots of other excellent gardening videos.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: February 16, 2020, 02:35:41 AM »
Aerobic methanotrophs in upper soil can transform the methane from deeper soil into CO2. It all depends how fast the methane diffuses upward. E.g. thawing permafrost covered with soil emits less methane than thermokarst lakes where the methane bubbles out into the atmosphere. Soil microbiology is quite a tangled web.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 11, 2020, 02:39:28 AM »
Old recipe: In case you get fed up with rock'n'roll drummerz, try some Zappa:

This is actually from my natural trumpet exercise library - but for the guitar that comes later.
And actually it is a warm-up piece to paradigmatic Chopin:

Now back to the storm (incl. some lightning) coming back to my neck of Barvaria, or some more trumpet. Got a paradigmatic spruce fell behind the house never seen before... The only one not killed by drought stress (instead: wet feet...).  All the experts said, don't worry, what a beautiful old exemplar.  Now I got her top (incl. old bird shit) as a belated christmas tree...

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 05, 2020, 06:49:52 AM »
The Donald makes Rush Limbaugh's jaw drop at SOTU, but a little girl yawns at the BS...

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 05, 2020, 06:30:04 AM »

Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: February 05, 2020, 05:42:31 AM »
You might remember the story about Pleistocene Park in Russia which is also referenced in the story.
I find the short mention a bit insulting to Sergey Zimov's life work: "The Pleistocene Park, a family-run grassland restoration project". His son Nikita Zimov is actually a coauthor of the paper.

Slightly older docu:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: February 04, 2020, 07:30:37 PM »
Welcome to the Pyrocene

"I have long regarded all of the Holocene as an Anthropocene.  From a fire perspective I now regard the Anthropocene as a Pyrocene." -- Stephen J Pyne

Here is a magnificent German/French docu on the science of wildfire. Made before the Australian Black Summer. Also no mention of the Greenland peat fires ( ).
Still magnificent. Should be produced also in english. Or maybe Neven can do subtitles?

One spectacularity starting at 37:33 -- Dunno if this is real or a computer simulation. Pyrocumulonimbus in Fort McMurray, Alberta, 2016.

Apropos Australian Aboriginal controlled fire techniques: Something also known to First Americans, from the Amazon to Canada.  Intro 1:02:12 about "learning again how to dance with the beast", then reporting from BC Canada.

German version:

P.S.: Aboriginal controlled fire techniques won't cut it, methinks. What is also needed is a return of human-migrant "controlled grazing" and the wild bison to help with soil formation and spread seeds.

My new dream job: Landscape fireologist.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 04, 2020, 03:47:22 PM »
So, I found it. Above was the Big Band thing, here it is with a Trio, where I first heard it. Nice opportunity to learn some Portugese (song text at link). But don't get too distracted (*) by the singer. Listen to the piano.

(*) P.S.:

Elis Regina Carvalho Costa (March 17, 1945 – January 19, 1982), known professionally as Elis Regina [...]
Her untimely death, at the age of 36, shocked Brazil. She has frequently been regarded as the greatest Brazilian singer of all time by critics, musicians, and commentators.


The Waters of March (Portuguese: "Águas de Março" [ˈaɡwɐʒ dʒi ˈmaʁsu]) is a Brazilian song composed by Antônio Carlos Jobim (1927–1994) in 1972. Jobim wrote both the English and Portuguese lyrics.[1] The lyrics, originally written in Portuguese, do not tell a story, but rather present a series of images that form a collage; nearly every line starts with "É..." ("[It] is...").[1] In 2001, "Águas de Março" was named as the all-time best Brazilian song in a poll of more than 200 Brazilian journalists, musicians and other artists conducted by Brazil's leading daily newspaper, Folha de S.Paulo.[1] It was also voted by the Brazilian edition of Rolling Stone as the second greatest Brazilian song.[2]

The inspiration for "Águas de Março" came from Rio de Janeiro's rainiest month. March is typically marked by sudden storms with heavy rains and strong winds that cause flooding in many places around the city. The lyrics and the music have a constant downward progression much like the water torrent from those rains flowing in the gutters, which typically would carry sticks, stones, bits of glass, and almost everything and anything. The orchestration creates the illusion of the constant descending of notes much like Shepard tones.


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 03, 2020, 01:22:09 AM »
...apotheosis of Bossa Nova, plus: the Master HIMSELF doing the basso continuo...   Now you can forget Quincy Jones.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 03, 2020, 01:09:47 AM »
Curtsey to well-groomed YouTube algorithms plus feedback from incarnated flesh, here is our ultimate trumpet piece for tonight:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 02, 2020, 11:46:37 PM »
Dunno what resonance He adjusts at the amplifier... (Ca. 7:15) Later something "recorded in 1733 at the Benjamin Franklin studios"...

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 08:07:01 AM »
Never finish listening

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 07:26:47 AM »
Final P-S-_
Can't help some Dvořák before we go sleep or not;

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 06:47:15 AM »
P.P^4.S.;  How to round up an nocturnal musical session [,,,]
mmhjmmmm... after Horowitz, .... and Beethoven 5 who else than Oscar Peterson?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 04:39:34 AM »
P.P^4.S.;  How to round up an nocturnal musical session other than with Nobuyuki Tsujii?


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 03:17:01 AM »
P.P^3.S.;(just for context) This guy seems to transcendent Martha Argerich;

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 01:45:32 AM »
Just in case you think I'm boasting- here is the real grandmaster of the natural trumpet:

P.S. No apotheosis of the baroque trumpet without the oboe:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 12:59:29 AM »
... and now for something completely different...
(The funny thing about Dr. Frunkenshtein's Trumpet is, it fits best to the piano.)

P.S.: (!) I'm changing between a prehistoric silver plated Miraphone 2C flügelhorn mouthpiece and a contemporary plastic trombone mouthpiece that cost 2x the gold plated thing, plus, half a dozen of tin cans of different acoustic geometry...

P.P.S.: My copper plumbing trumpet seems to be an original Baroque Clarino - perrhaps last heard in Beethoven's 5th piano concerto (alas in Es, not D - When will YouTube grant tuning for musicians? - Not holding my breath...). Need to revisit grandmaster JSB - but Telemann is way above me: Me too old, meanwhile...

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 01, 2020, 12:40:00 AM »
For those who hate MSNBC:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: January 31, 2020, 11:56:17 PM »
Once a b/w video was posted here (perhaps) of a young singer lady giant and a piano with something probably not composed by Antonio Carlos Jobim. Possibly posted by Lurk, who deleted his stuff.

And I just can't recall that song. Not really Bossa, but subtler. Any hints? Jobim's Chega De Saudade has some hints, but I just don't get it together...

P.S.: Duh. Didn't know Quincy Jones was such a cool nut!
(P.P.S.: I used to associate QJ with the whitened grooveless schmalz trash produced with Michael Jackson, the radio-torture background during the worst decade of my youth... :) ) What a contrast his old Big Band is!

(Forum search "function" can't retrive Jobim+HerbieHancock=ulimate_Wave 3-handed piano masters' piece ...) So, (incl. yet another music history remark by Dizzy Gillespie),


In the 1980ies we had -30°C in SE flatland Bavaria. Prague must have been at least that cold.

In the 2000s I moved uphill to enjoy some decent winter. Meanwhile even there the good winters are gone. Havent used my snow shoes for years.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 30, 2020, 04:46:46 PM »
Dashcam footage captured by the Dunmore Rural Fire Brigade on 4 January 2020. The footage shows just how quickly a bushfire can move when the wind changes direction.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 30, 2020, 06:17:07 AM »
One response to this situation is to walk away and tune everything out. After all, it takes real effort to comb through the bullshit, and most people have busy lives and limited bandwidth. Another reaction is to retreat into tribal allegiances.[...]
Below some material on Truth Decay from RAND and from Yuval Harari.

First response: Know thyself. Recognize when it is your gut, not evidence based rationality that does the thinking.

Truth Decay is an old phenomenon. Nothing new. The difference today is that we can google. Look for the facts first. If it takes too long to get to the bottom, just forget about it and dont waste more time and neurons.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 29, 2020, 04:01:55 PM »
The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!
Now that sounds pretty weird. What stupid lamp would radiate such heat? Or was it mounted at the skid and touched the grass?

Maybe it was pure coincidence, as there was some fire around already. Perhaps the Murdoch papers have run out of arsonists?


The landing light was being used because of the smoky conditions. [...]
He said the crew were lucky to escape with their lives.
"The helicopter came down to land and within 12 seconds the aircraft was almost engulfed in flames,"
"Defence can confirm that the issue outlined in the 2016 ANAO Major Project Report with respect to the MRH-90 Taipan landing lights, did not contribute to the incident in the Orroral Valley," she said. [...]

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: January 28, 2020, 11:37:07 PM »
Time for pictures.  No idea if they are the best and/or latest, and there's quite some variation in detail.

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