Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Juan C. García

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 19, 2019, 01:50:44 AM »
JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.
I like your comment, but the truth, I discard a blue ocean event (BOE) on the near future.

I think that we are on a new stage, in which it will be bad enough if on the following 12 years (2030):
   a) We have 3 years like 2012 or a little worst.
   b) We have an increase in the annual average sea level rise.
   c) We have an increase in methane emissions, because of permafrost melting.

I think that we have a big probability of seeing these three events on the following 12 years, no matter what we do.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 18, 2019, 04:45:54 AM »
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.
I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.
Thanks everyone! It really felt like a public thanking ceremony!   ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17th, 2019:
     14,017,283 km2, a drop of -76,098 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)

3
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: How quickly could Greenland melt?
« on: March 17, 2019, 05:07:00 PM »
The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks.

A new video of the same autor: "Greenland Ice Sheet : Is it stable?"

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 04:49:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16th, 2019:
     14,093,381 km2, a drop of -55,149 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 17, 2019, 04:17:14 AM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: March 07, 2019, 03:55:20 AM »
Let’s assume that on June 1st, 2022 we will have a new record of only 9.5 million km2 of ASI extent and the weather is going to promote melting for the following 2 months, with a high pressure system all around the Arctic. Then on August, we are going to have some Great Arctic Cyclones, like the one we have on 2012.

Let’s assume two settings for June 1st, 2022:

1. On the first one, we are going to have an average ice thickness of 2.6 meters, like the one we had on 1980, with 90% of the ice being 5+ years old (yes, I know it is not going to happen  ;) ).

2. On the second setting, we are going to have an average thickness of 1.5 meters, like the one that we had on 2017. Let’s assume that 80% of the ice is 1st year old.

Well, we start with the same extent on both settings, but IMHO, at the end of August we could be having something close to a BOE in the second setting, but not on the first.

So, it is important the volume and also the quality of the ice that we have.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2019, 10:37:36 AM »
I just noticed that 2012 was listed on position 15 in that table - and that later in that year its extent was way below of all other years. I think anything is possible on this date...

2012 had an increase of ice at the beginning of March and it didn't seem that it was going to break any record until the first half of June. I highlight 2012 on this graph (green line).Of course, the 2012 trajectory will look worst if the graph doesn't have the following years, specially 2015-2018.

Addendum: 2nd. graph - 2012 taking out the following years.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2019, 05:08:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 3rd, 2019:
     14,014,896 km2, an increase of 41,391 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     Now 2019 again above the 14M km2.
     It needs an increase of 179,665 km2 to reach a new max.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 03, 2019, 04:51:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Could Neven be right waiting to declare the maximum?
Well, here we go!  ::)

March 2nd, 2019:
     13,973,505 km2, an increase of 64,454 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 27, 2019, 06:32:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 26th, 2019:
     13,995,362 km2, a drop of -23,098 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Sorry I am late. Problems with internet...  :( )

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Guess the date of the max
« on: February 26, 2019, 07:27:40 PM »
Extent max and difference versus Feb 25th.

There are 24 years that didn't have the increase needed, to have a new max on 2019, versus the Feb 22, 2019 extent.
[Extent in "1,000,000 km2", Difference in "1,000 km2"]

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2019, 05:01:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 19th, 2019:
     14,012,202 km2, an increase of 49,674 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     New max for 2019. And now above the 14M km2 mark.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 19, 2019, 05:13:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 18th, 2019:
     13,962,528 km2, an increase of 35,617 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 17, 2019, 05:07:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 16th, 2019:
     13,919,453 km2, a drop of -26,050 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 15, 2019, 05:01:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 14th, 2019:
     13,953,863 km2, almost a century increase of 93,355 km2.
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.
PS: 46K to reach the 14M km2 (and one month of possible increases).
      No new minimum max on 2019!
      Seems that 2019 is following 2007 & 2012  :o (Hope not!  ;) ) On Feb 14th they are
      around 14M km2.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 14, 2019, 10:22:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Table of Minimum Max (Feb 13th, 2019):

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:42:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 11th, 2019:
     13,695,200 km2, an increase of 45,741 km2.
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 11, 2019, 05:38:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 10th, 2019:
     13,649,459 km2, an increase of 41,527 km2.
     2019 is now the 4rd lowest on record.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 10, 2019, 05:40:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 9th, 2019:
     13,607,932 km2, an increase of 50,819 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 09, 2019, 07:48:59 AM »
Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.
You are welcome. And thanks everyone for the "like"s!
Excuse me that I was late today... Friday night!  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 8th, 2019:
     13,557,113 km2, an increase of 38,106 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2019, 05:12:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

23
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 08, 2019, 02:37:51 AM »
Hurricanes are strengthening faster in the Atlantic, and climate change is a big reason why, scientists say
Quote
Rapid intensification is generally measured by comparing the strength of a hurricane over a 24-hour period. A change in storm wind speed of greater than 35 mph in 24 hours is generally the cutoff.
By this measure, the five most destructive Atlantic storms of the past two years all went through rapid intensification:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/07/hurricanes-are-strengthening-faster-atlantic-climate-change-is-big-reason-why-scientists-say/?utm_term=.5ffb6aeb8040&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1

24
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: February 07, 2019, 09:28:24 PM »
More of the same…
(Could be in several topics, but maybe this one is the best).

Today’s Earth looks a lot like it did 115,000 years ago. All we’re missing is massive sea level rise.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/06/todays-earth-looks-lot-like-it-did-years-ago-all-were-missing-is-massive-sea-level-rise/?utm_term=.229f575f196e&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 07, 2019, 05:57:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 6th, 2019:
     13,513,236 km2, an increase of 71,370 km2.
     2019 is still the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: Important increase.  :) Now above the 13.5 M km2 mark.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 06, 2019, 04:59:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 5th, 2019:
     13,441,866 km2, an increase of only 8,137 km2.
     2019 is now the 3rd lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 05, 2019, 05:30:20 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 4th, 2019:
     13,433,729 km2, an increase of only 5,337 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.
PS: 2010 has not official value. Average used.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 30, 2019, 04:45:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 29th, 2019:
     13,474,856 km2, a drop of -3,133 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Seems that there was a sensor problem on Jan 27th, that made noise on 27th and 28th. With this drop, back to normal).

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 29, 2019, 05:06:14 AM »
The interest to me is that a 10 year average shows such high daily variations.
The same happened to me, so I decided to stop using the original ADS NIPR average and just look at your data...  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 28th, 2019:
     13,477,989 km2, an increase of 28,380 km2.
     2019 is now the 10th lowest on record.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 28, 2019, 04:58:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 27th, 2019:
     13,449,609 km2, an increase of 79,404 km2::)
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record (and close to become the 10th.  8) ).

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 22, 2019, 04:56:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2019:
     13,242,328 km2, an increase of 35,598 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2019, 06:33:28 PM »
Isn't this the difference between climate and weather?
There is a big difference between having and average of 0°C on autumn-winter and 20°C on spring-summer, or having -20°C on autumn-winter and 40°C on spring-summer. Of course, both give the average of 10°C on the four seasons.

So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

So the question is if the ASI is swinging more abruptly than in the past. From my point of view, it can be happening, but it doesn't matter. The point is that we are getting use to have low values the whole year and we see weakness on the ice that is remaining.

2019 can be the lowest or the 10th lowest on record. But for the first 15 14 days of January, the 2005-2019 are the 15 [years] lowest on record.

The Arctic has changed.

33
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 14, 2019, 07:50:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2019:
     3,840,057 km2, a drop of -84,009 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

Note: The 1979-1988 years that are without daily value, were not included in this analysis (It is usual to have a missing value on those years).

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2019, 07:00:14 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2019:
     12,803,930 km2, an increase of 37,424 km2.
     2019 is the 4th lowest on record.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2019, 04:45:54 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2:o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2019, 05:23:36 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2019:
     12,822,723 km2, a drop of -21,125 km2:o
     2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.

37
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2019, 05:19:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2019:
     4,140,351 km2, a drop of -102,121 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2019, 02:58:05 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Global Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     17,056,375 km2, a drop of -137,992 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.


We miss you Gerontocrat. Hope everything is fine!  ;)

39
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 09, 2019, 06:15:28 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Antarctica Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     4,341,764 km2, a drop of -141,319 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 09, 2019, 04:51:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 8th, 2019:
     12,714,611 km2, an increase of only 3,327 km2.
     2019 is still the 8th lowest on record.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 07, 2019, 04:58:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 6th, 2019:
     12,660,872 km2, an increase of 35,294 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 06, 2019, 04:49:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 5th, 2019:
     12,625,578 km2, an increase of 35,426 km2.
     2019 is the 8th lowest on record.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 05, 2019, 04:57:04 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 4th, 2019:
     12,590,152 km2, an increase of 65,821 km2.
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 03, 2019, 06:49:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

January 2nd, 2019:
     12,454,828 km2, an increase of 167,634 km2.
     2018  :P :) 2019 is now the 6th lowest on record.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 06:42:59 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 30th, 2018:
     12,053,135 km2, an increase of 89,101 km2.
     2018 is the 2nd lowest on record.


P.S. I will be on holiday tomorrow and I will post on January 1st, 2019.
¡Happy new year!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 05:59:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 30th, 2018:
     12,053,135 km2, an increase of 89,101 km2.


P.S.
Hello everybody.
Sorry that I have not being here for several days.
I made a trip to Oaxaca (México) and I was supposed to have a good internet connection. Finally it didn't happen and what it is worst, it end up my subscription with Office 365.
I will try to do the work with Google spreadsheets.

Wish me luck...

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2018, 05:10:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 23rd, 2018:
     11,778,497 km2, an increase of 26,104 km2.
     2018 is the 4th lowest on record.


Have an excellent day tomorrow! I will be on holiday, so I will not post.  :)

48
I think that earthquakes will increase worldwide, if the ice melts on Antarctica & Greenland, making sea level rise. I just hope that we will be able to stop emissions and reduce CO2 concentration on the atmosphere, before we have earthquakes all around us.

I live close to Mexico City, a place that is very vulnerable to earthquakes. They are usually originated on the Pacific, because the Coco’s plate is moving inward the North American Plate. I think that the Coco’s plate will accelerate the moving inward, with the additional pressure of sea level rise. I don't have a scientific study that will support that.

Finally, I don’t have a reason to think that earthquakes could not happen in the Arctic or Antarctica, if Greenland and Antarctica lose a huge amount of ice. I just think that it is common sense that it will happened.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 18, 2018, 04:47:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

** Seems that we continue with a malfunction for the second consecutive day **
December 17th, 2018:
     11,820,858 km2, an increase of 68,133 km2.
     2018 is now the 10th lowest on record.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 14, 2018, 03:03:02 PM »
"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.

Jennifer Francis has been talking about the alterations of the Jet Stream for several years. This video 5 years old proves that. In climate, we have to wait years to prove that a theory is right. Now, I still think that Jennifer was right 5 years ago. So, from my point of view, Jennifer Francis is an excelent scientist and time is proving that she is right in her theories.



Edit:
I like more this second video, published Feb 26, 2013:


Pages: [1] 2 3 4