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Messages - Oscillidous

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 09:11:57 PM »
I admire Sarks' ability to speak so vaguely, it's very political. The pictures are helpful but for the lay persons here, it's very confusing and that aside, the ideas aren't very coherent. He isn't a scientist, he is doing this work in his spare time so I'm not at all faulting his character, I just wish he would invest more effort into explaining rather than broadly speaking.

Atmospheric change is a factor that affects melting season, but this is a thread about ice melt exclusively, so anything that doesn't immediately influence that should be quite fairly seen as off topic. There are plenty of other threads to take other topics to.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 01:33:26 PM »
I am just happy that the majority seeks to keep the order as is expected by Neven. Nothing shows integrity more than a willingness to set aside emotion, consider controversial ideas and remain divested in the outcome.

My prediction remains: 2nd lowest behind 2012 but it will be irrelevant because refreeze will be delayed and melt season next year will begin prematurely with nothing but puny ice to fare out the season. This season isn't about beating out some arbitrary year for me, it's a tell of a clear and imminent collapse of the ice.

On a somewhat related note, I did some research yesterday and stumbled on some learning materials and peer reviewed papers that may be of interest to folks here:

Arctic Sea Ice, Upper Atmosphere Transport, and Trade Winds lecture from U of California:

Paper on how water vapor and clouds precondition melt seasons for significant ice loss: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL060826

Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064373

I am still learning, let me know if you guys think Neven would want this somewhere else, I will remove these. Can't imagine you all haven't seen these papers before, but I thought I'd pay it forward.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:03:08 PM »
If nothing else, this melt season will run a little longer than usual. My guess is 2019 will get 2nd place.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:07:32 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

This is my curiosity too. I thought it was the GAC which did the major damage, haven't we met that level of ice loss without one already? I don't think much will happen in terms of weather conditions this season but I just think that with melt from below and all the energy absorbed by the water, the system has plenty energy to continue to weaken the ice.

I need to change my sig to "then again, I know nothing" because that has been my running qualifier.

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