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Messages - Simon

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 09:13:43 AM »
Oren’s figures are very interesting. Seems that seasonal ice loss is 17.5 x 1000km3 +/_ 10%. We will have to wait till the late September volume result is in but it is likely that 2020 may become the 2nd largest volume loss of recent years.

One may like to speculate that a potential BOE (however defined) may need a precondition of a maximum ice volume below 20 x 1000 km3

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 07:31:00 AM »
Is it me or does the ice have the shape of a dog with a Beaufort tail?

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 15, 2020, 08:26:58 AM »
I think you get a more considered and informed interpretation of data and also opinion on this forum that you would otherwise get on social media platforms.

Keep with it!

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 12, 2020, 08:43:56 PM »
May not be the right thread but as Arctic summer sea ice is being referred to, the latest modelling indicates circa 2035 for its first disappearance.

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: August 06, 2020, 09:42:30 PM »
But isn’t the total greater than that, about 3.2W/m2 ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 09:34:09 PM »

Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:12:58 PM »
Given that the RCP values refer to radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases in 2100, and given that the rf value now is 3.2 And assuming a steady increase as seen in recent years, the nearest pathway is RCP6.0.

RCP8.5 was imagined as a very high end scenario but one which is not actually impossible but one that would depend upon increasing greenhouse gas emissions and a huge failure of our main CO2 sinks, namely biomass and oceans.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: May 30, 2020, 07:41:37 PM »
Of course, we need to remember than the Arctic energy budget may not be typical for the planet as a whole as radiative emissivity varies with temperature, T^4 in fact. Thus a lot less radiation escapes into space than elsewhere on the planet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 12:08:50 PM »
Given that an unusual reduction in albedo Is anticipated from 0.9 to about 0.65 over the period of 40 days when solar insolation is 500W/m2, I wonder if anyone has done an estimate of how much extra reduction in sea ice thickness will be caused by this? My own back of envelope estimate suggests about a 1cm extra reduction for each 1W/m2 of heat energy transfer. Theoretically, the sea ice could thin an extra 1.25m! That would mean the oft quoted BOE in August / September. Have I done something wrong? Loss of snow cover cannot have that large an effect surely?

Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: September 27, 2019, 08:32:29 AM »
Excellent work by Gerontocrat into carbon sinks. However, I am surprised to find the quantity in gigatonne of carbon sunk being on the same axis as percentage sunk given that total emissions are not constant.

Walking the walk / Re: Heating with wood or pellets ? and air heat pump ?
« on: September 20, 2019, 04:36:27 PM »
According to this Finnish study, log burning is not good for the climate. Pellet burning is far better. The best method of home heating is heat pumps powered by zero carbon electricity. Trouble is, heat pumps only work well in well insulated houses.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 10, 2019, 12:20:59 PM »
We need to source our primary energy in such a way that does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels. This is actually quite easy compared with mining coal, extracting oil and gas.

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